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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 14, 2016

Upbeat labor data failed to lift the AUD above 76 cents against the USD. The Australian dollar opened at 0.7654 and hit a day low of 0.7619 in later session.

The first support is at 0.7602 and 0.7563 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7685 and 0.7724 subsequently.

The dip comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed positive employment figures, most of it surpassing projections. The unemployment rate in March was at 5.7 percent, 0.1 percent lower than February’s 5.8 percent. Analysts expected it to increase to 5.9 percent in March.

This is the lowest unemployment rate since September 2013. According to employment minister Michaelia Cash, the number of working people increased 2.2 percent, while the unemployed fell by 4.6 percent in the past 12 months. Furthermore, 26,100 jobs were also added, topping an estimated 20,000 additional jobs.

The report also showed that people scored more part-time jobs as it increased by 34,900, a 10-month high, while full-time jobs dwindled by 8,800. Participation rate rose by 0.9 percent.

However, investor sentiment was unfazed as more sold their AUD for a slowly recovering greenback despite US retail sales in the red. The US inflation report will be published later today.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is decreasing.

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EURCAD today 27 October 2017 is going down for a while, the analysis is still bullish, so please find buy signal in area 1.49553 and take profit up to 1.50457 . If 1.50600 breaks, it mean that EURCAD

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 15, 2016

The repercussions of three days imposing increase of the pound/dollar was it has initiated rectification. The Bank of England has announced its minutes and the interest rate decision wherein the rate was kept at the same level. The unpredictability of the Brexit caused the currency to remain under pressure.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an ascending movement which creates a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is retrieving.

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Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2016

The risk assets may be affected by the outcome of the summit in Doha, and beforehand, the volatility of the market already reduced. Moreover, the US currency had gone under pressure which is the aftermath of the Fed statements and the poor inflation data from the US. Dennis Lockhart, Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta, stated that he would not go for a rate hike in April as he supports a careful approach to the monetary policy tightening because of low consumer spending. The market volatility heightened by the end of the trades.

The US issued the Industrial Production volume for March. The index occur at the level of -0,6% m/m wherein the recent value was -0.50% m/m while the report was -0.60% m/m and the Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan for April. The index have shown 89.7 wherein the previous value was 91.0 while the report was 92.3.

There was no important impact on EUR/USD the inflation data of the Euro area wherein the index came in the zero value after decreasing by 0.1% y/y. The Euro zone issued the Trade Balance for February wherein the index displayed 19.0 billion euro and the recent value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar increased.

The Bank of England let the rate remained at the level of 0,5% and the Bank pointed to the risks relative to the Brexit. The pound stayed appeased to the regulator's speech. The GBP/USD pair aggressively grew by the end of the trades.

The investors were upset by the poor US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports. The US and Japanese government bond yields reduced which caused the US assets to lessen its charm. The USD/JPY pair diminished by the end of the trades.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 18, 2016

The bird reached a high of 0.6939 in early trading after the Statistics New Zealand released the consumer price index (CPI) for the first quarter of the year on Sunday.

The CPI was on the upside at an increase of 0.2 percent as it surpassed analysts’ forecast of 0.1 percent, recovering from 0.5 percent fall in the last quarter of 2015. The index grew by 0.4 percent from the same period last year, which only rose by 0.1 percent.

Cigarettes and tobacco had the biggest contribution as prices surged by 9.4 percent, while oil prices dropped by 7.7 percent. The upbeat CPI will most likely relieve some pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to not rush the next rate cut in April.

Although the kiwi dollar has recovered its losses during the weekend, its gains against the USD are still inconsistent as we saw it hit an intraday low of 0.6883. The pair is now trading at a wide range of 0.6849 to 0.6940.

The first support is at 0.6881 and 0.6847 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6968 and 0.7003. The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.

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Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2016

In the middle of risk aversion in the stock markets, the dollar came low. While the attention in the safe assets heightened amidst the cheap oil prices. The fall of the oil prices was due to the negative outcome of the oil exporter's meeting in Doha. The dollar have gone under pressure caused by the poor US data which is low than expected. The UDS Industrial Production decreased by 0.6% contrary to the expected 0.1% whilst the Capacity Utilization lessened to 74.8% from 75.4% and lastly, the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April reduced to 89.7 contrary to the reported 92.

Serving as a funding currency, the euro were sustained by the decline of the risk appetite. Also, the attention in the risky assets slacken caused by the slowdown of the Gross Domestic Product increase of China and the poor economic statistics from the US. The primary reasons that cause the dollar to fall were the decrease of economic inflation of China to its bottom-most level and the average negative statistics on the US inflation. The euro/usd pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

A technical rectification to the psychological level of $40 per barrel was caused by the traders that acquired profit and closed their orders in oil contracts. Traditionally, inferior energy prices had a negative effect on the British currency. The oil price heightened and the pound/dollar pair increased by the end of the trades.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley stated on Monday that the US labor market has recuperated firmly and the Central Bank would slowly pursue to make the interest rates remained normal. An Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production were negatively reported in the past week. These also played into the bear's hands in the dollar/yen pair. The dollar/yen pair increased by the end of the trades.

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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 19, 2016

The minutes of the RBA’s policy meeting on April 9 was released today, revealing the board’s optimistic outlook on the economy. Although there is a slight hint of downplaying the Aussie dollar, we are yet to see a tough jawboning from Governor Glenn Stevens to balance the AUD’s surging value and the target inflation rate.

“Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate progress in activity rebalancing towards the non-mining sectors of the economy,” the RBA said.

A continuous increase in commodity prices can cushion the blow of an ‘overvalued’ AUD. After sliding several pips leading to the minutes’ release, the pair reached a 10-month high of 0.7779. The recovery of oil prices also helped the currency regain losses.

On the flipside, a snap election in July was confirmed by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull earlier today, casting a shadow on the AUD’s uptrend against the USD.

Meanwhile, Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren dismissed pessimistic investors, saying that the Fed is likely to raise the rates due to a modest increase in wages. In his speech, Rosengren’s deviates from his usually dovish stance, adding that “rate increases are absolutely appropriate.”

The pair is drifting just below 78 cents. The exchange rate is currently at 0.7778.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 20, 2016

The probability of a rate hike was lessened by the Bank of England which may cause the pound to stay unstable. The English regulator dwelt the risks for the country economy when Brexit takes place amidst decision-making regarding the interest rates last week. Mark Carney stated on Tuesday that the effect of Brexit would not be sustainable and it would cause a financing of the payment balance more pricey.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 20, 2016

Despite a more positive than expected ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone, the Euro still failed to break through the 1.14 levels although gaining against the dollar.

Economic sentiment, which measures investors’ outlook for the economy, reached 21.5 in April from last month’s 10.6. Analysts predicted only 8.8 this month. The economic sentiment in Germany was released yesterday as well, surging to 11.2 from last month’s 4.3, eclipsing forecast of 8.0.

The Euro is still trading within a narrow range of 1.1352 to 1.1375 and is 30 pips shy of reaching 1.14. The support is located at 1.1335 and 1.1235 subsequently, and the resistance is at 1.1420 and 1.1500 subsequently.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi will announce the future of interest rates on Thursday, but it is expected that the bank will retain the current 0.25.

On the other hand, the USD index fell due to housing data revealed to be below projections, hinting a downtrend in the real estate and construction sectors. Building permits issued was down to 1.086 million from 1.177 million, a 7.7 percent fall from the previous month. The number of houses that started construction also slumped to 1.089 million to 1.194 million yoy.

As of time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1368. The MACD indicator is at negative location and the price is rising.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 20, 2016

The pair is experiencing a retracement as the USD outperforms the NZD, halting the bird’s third consecutive day of uptrends. The kiwi dollar is trading just eight pips above the 0.70 handle as of time of writing.

Data pointing to the opposite situation was released today. The GlobalDairyTrade(GDT) index rose by 3.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Whole milk powder, New Zealand’s biggest export goods, grew by 7.5 percent, while skim milk powder added 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the US’ housing data tumbled with only 1.086 building permits issued from 1.777 million in the previous month. Housing starts skidded to 1.089 million from last year’s 1.194 million.

The first support is at 0.6840 and 0.6656 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6926 and 0.7068 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is dropping.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 21, 2016

The GBP/USD strengthened as the pair positively increased earlier despite oil prices gains and the attraction in risky assets. The Brexit rivals count has been decreased. Perhaps, there had been a positive impact on the British people the deterrents of government lately regarding the immense effect of the country exit from the European Union.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

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Fundamental Analysis: April 22, 2016

On Thursday, the central events were the ECB meeting and Mario Draghi's speech. The rate remained unchanged by the regulator at 0%. Draghi stated that he does not also deny a transition to the negative rates. The soft policy will remain until the inflation hits 2%.

The dissatisfying retail sales publication cause the pound to decrease in opposition to the US dollar which weaken the optimism regarding the strength of the British economy. The total number of retail sales for March was anticipated to lessen by 0.1%, but it was diminished even lower to 1.3%.

For April, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index reduced and displayed -1.6. Initial Jobless Claims occured at 247,000 contrary to the reported 263,000.

In spite of lower than expected Trade Balance publication, the yen increased slightly wherein the Balance reached 755 billion contrary to the expected 834,6 billion. While the exports increased from -4.0% y/y to -6.8% y/y, imports heightened from -14.2% y/y to 14.9% y/y. Kuroda's speech about further policy easing if necessary supported the yen as well.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 22, 2016

The Eurozone’s interest rate was kept parked at 0 percent, ECB president Mario Draghi said on Thursday. The announcement sent the Euro to the bulls but traders’ reaction quickly dissipated, sending the pair to 1.12 levels.

Draghi dismissed reports that helicopter money will soon enter the picture, generally showing an upbeat look on the economy. He kept doors open for a negative interest rate in the future.

Inflation was at 0 percent last month, largely missing ECB’s target of almost 2 percent. Draghi said that the inflation should rise before 2016 ends.

The ECB president also responded to Germany’s criticisms on the former’s soft monetary policies.

"We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the eurozone and not only for Germany alone,” he said.

The market is now waiting for reactions from Fed.

The MACD is currently below its 9-day EMA, reaching an intraday high of 1.1311. The spot rate is 1.1282 at the time of writing and is still declining. The pair is facing an immediate support at 1.129 and 1.1162, subsequently, while immediate resistance is at 1.1341 and 1.1397 subsequently.

The Eurozone’s monthly manufacturing and services PMI are the next stimulus for the pair. Figures will be released later today.

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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 22, 2016

The Aussie dollar is retracing despite high iron prices, and rallying commodity prices and risk sentiment. The AUD slipped to 0.7726 from today’s high of 0.7775 due to a recovering USD and flat oil prices.

Shortly after ECB President Mario Draghi announced that the Eurozone’s interest rate will remain at 0 percent yesterday, the pair reached 0.78 cents, but similar to the EUR/USD, dipped as well.

The pair’s 4-hour MACD shows a bearish divergence, but the long-term weekly MACD is pushing for a bullish convergence. The MACD indicator is in neutral location.

The pair’s first support occurs at 0.7684 and 0.7646 subsequently, while its first resistance is at 0.7787 and 0.7826.

The greenbacks’ side is fairly quiet with no data outflow later today.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 25, 2016

Further than what is anticipated, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany increased in the past month. It can be seen in the index that it grew by 51.9 contrary to the 50.7 in the recent month. Nevertheless, experts had expected the growth of index to 51.0.

The first support occurs at 1.1150 and at 1.1050 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1260 and at 1.1350 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen display a descending motion. This movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 25, 2016

After the Australian dollar shot up to a 10-month high last week at 0.7834, it entered a bearish weekend and is still extending losses. The exchange rate is now at 0.7716 although it posted a day high of 0.7728 earlier which was almost immediately trimmed.

The AUD has the rising commodity prices and a generally weak USD to reverse the uptrend, but we are expecting the losses to extend at least until the Q1 CPI on Tuesday. Exports and imports figures will be published on Wednesday. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will also deliver a speech on Thursday that may foreshadow the direction of future monetary policies.

The highlight this week is the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday about its interest rates. Consumer confidence is also due on Tuesday.

The first support is at 0.7661 and 0.7622 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7743 and 0.7781 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The price is rising.

Australian markets are on a break today as it celebrates the Anzac day.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 25, 2016

The NZD breached support of 0.6880 on Friday and is now moving within the range of 0.6843 and 0.6877.

Trading is relatively quiet in NZ market as the country commemorates the Anzac day together with Australia. A near-term trend reversal will materialize if the Kiwi breaks through the support at 0.6793.

Volatility is expected later this week as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand convenes to decide on the future of the country’s interest rate, although it is believed that it will retain the 2.25 percent rate.

The USD remains soft but its future depends on the Fed’s announcement on Monday.

The first resistance is at 0.6895 and 0.6930 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is climbing.

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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: April 26, 2016

On Monday, the dollar fell contrary to the yen, bidding goodbye to the three weeks of growth. The market was expecting for the Fed and BoJ meeting.

The first support occurs at 110.60 and at 109.60 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 111.40 and at 112.20 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 26, 2016

The New Zealand dollar recovered when markets opened on Tuesday while the USD index is still weak.

Ahead of the RBNZ’s announcement on monetary policies, the central bank’s shadow board put together by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research urged that interest rate should remain at 2.25 percent, causing the bird to fly a little higher.

The pair broke through yesterday’s resistance of 0.6895, peaking at 0.6897 earlier today. The kiwi dollar is currently testing 0.69 levels and is trading at a 42-pip range.

The initial support is at 0.6848 and 0.6814 subsequently. The immediate resistance is now at 0.6921. The MACD indicator is in negative location. The spot exchange is at 0.6893 and rising.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 26, 2016

Buying interest are surrounding the Euro as markets remain vigilant ahead of the FOMC meeting. Lower than expected home sales from the US also added upward pressure to the Euro.

Annual home sales only reached 511,000 from last year’s 519,000, hugely missing forecasts of 520,000. The spotlights are now on Fed’s two-day policy meeting that will commence later today and the announcement from the BOJ on Thursday.

The pair rose to 1.1301 today, almost hitting the nearest resistance of 1.1305. The next resistance is at 1.1362. The first support occurs at 1.1243 and 1.1187 subsequently.

The exchange rate is now at 1.1295. The MACD is in a negative location. The price is climbing.

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Fundamental Analysis: April 27, 2016

The America filled the economic calendar with its important releases yesterday. For March, the Durable Goods Orders record was issued first wherein it came out at 0.8% in opposition to the report of 1.8%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence for April hitted 94.2 wherein the recent value was 94.2 and the report was 96.0. Traders were hoping to have a glimpse of sign about the state of the economy before the Fed release their decision on Wednesday. And this could also have an effect on any further activity of the dollar. Now, investors abstain from opening new positions before the meeting.

The Eurozone did not have any significant news yesterday. After a solid increase, the EUR/USD pair reduced a bit by the end of the trades.

Meanwhile, the UK has issued Mortgage Approvals index for March wherein the data came in at 45.1K in opposition to the report of 46.0K. The GBP/USD pair displayed an increase but diminished a bit by the end of the trades.

The attraction set for the safe assets provoked the buying of yen. The gossips regarding the BoJ who won't implement fresh soft measures also sustained the yen. We are thinking that the regulator will cautiously assess the impact of the running measures furthermore and will implement the new ones only in June. The USD/JPY pair consolidated.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 28, 2016

As it has been expected, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK heightened by 0.4%, while its economy made an increase of 0.6%. The interest for the pound were sustained a bit by the 10-year UK government bonds yield which showed a growth in the Bonds Market.

The first support stands at 1.4480 and at 1.4400 subsequently. While the first resistance occurs at 1.4560 and at 1.4650 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is consolidating.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 28, 2016

The US and Germany government bonds yield differential has reduced in the bond market which also served as a "bullish" factor for the euro. Since commodity prices are in the US currency, the commodity market displayed an ascending trend that normally had a negative effect on the dollar. The center of attraction were focused on the US Fed meeting.

The first support occurs at 1.1260 and at 1.1150 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1350 and at 1.1450 subsequently.

A confirmed and a poor sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

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Fundamental Analysis: April 29, 2016

On Wednesday, the dollar were constantly steadfast to other major currencies as a preparation for the last Federal Reserve System political speech. Investors put their attention to the result of the political meeting expecting for any signs about the interest rates modification in June. The Fed left the rates remained at 0.5%.

In Germany, the Consumer Confidence outstandingly improved as it came at 9.7 in opposition to the recent value of 9.4. The consumers think that the economy of Germany will get better for the next months and look forward to its modest improvement. The EUR/USD stabilized a little.

Since the market realized that the UK economy gained by 0.4%, the pound ceased in growing together with the expectations of economists, but it slowed down to 0.6% in the recent quarter. In the first quarter, the UK economy grew by 2.1% on annual basis, which is the same with the recent quarter and rather high than the anticipated 2.0%. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair heightened by the end of the trades.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 29, 2016

The kiwi is hovering 20 pips below 0.70 handle after recording losses from an intraday high of 0.6990. With rate decisions coming from a number of currencies this week, NZD is showing the second strongest performance after the Yen.

The ANZ Business Confidence released today showed that companies are expecting positive economic activity as it jumped from 3.2 in March to 6.2 in April. Thirty-five percent of the surveyed firms predict an interest rate cut in the next policy meeting.

On the US side, personal spending will be released today while a deluge of data including manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payroll will come next week.

The first support is at 0.6918 and 0.6883 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7037 and 0.7072 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in neutral location. The price is rising.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: May 3, 2016

In opposition to the anticipation of most of us, the Manufacturing PMI in Germany reduced. The indicator displayed the data of 51.8 contrary with 51.9 in the recent month wherein it was seasonally revised. Meanwhile, experts hoped for the index to be at the recent level of 51.9.

The first support occurs at 1.1450 and at 1.1350 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.1550 and at 1.1650 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. This movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

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