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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: March 31, 2016

The Japanese Yen expanded in today’s early trading as Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s dovish remarks on Tuesday prompted investors to sell their greenbacks. The currency pair hit a daily low of 112.25.

Yellen’s speech on Tuesday to the Economic Club of New York said that caution must be exercised in hiking interest rates, lessening the possibility of a rate increase during Fed’s upcoming meeting in April. However, Yellen is optimistic on the growth of the US economy.

The dollar experienced a rally in the past weeks due to other Fed officials’ hawkish statements that implied they are eyeing to raise the numbers.

The speculation of a rate increase is now expected in Fed’s next meeting in June.

Yellen’s announcement put the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a more difficult position, which is battling stagnant deflation amidst strong currency. BOJ’s negative interest rates set in January did very little to help the situation.

Eyes are now on BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to see what monetary tools he will use to ease the problem. The BOJ may be forced to further lower the interest rates during its policy meeting in April.

The first support was at 111.82 and 111.26 subsequently. The first resistance was at 112.62 and 113.19 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is falling.

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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: March 31, 2016

The Australian dollar is riding the bulls while the greenback is too weak to follow owing to the sell-off after Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech on Tuesday. In fact, the Aussie dollar is gaining too much for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) liking.

AUD has now reached the level of 0.77, its highest in two weeks. Investors are selling their dollars and opting for Aussie ones as the latter has a better yield. However, questions are aloft on the RBA’s next move over the currency’s overvaluation.

RBA officials had previously said that the Aussie dollar is “getting ahead of itself” without significant signs of slowing down. Banks are also aiming for a lower domestic currency to successfully transition to a services-oriented economy from a mining-oriented one.

Yellen disappointed many central banks including the RBA after saying on Tuesday that tightening monetary policy should be approached with caution, slashing the hopes of many that they will see a rate hike in its policy meeting in late April.

Earlier this month, the RBA was forced to revise Aussie dollar expectations by the end of the year from US70¢ to US75¢. Furthermore, the current inflation is at 1.7 percent, missing the bank’s target of 2 to 3 percent.

If the RBA is to take a hawkish stance during its policy meeting on Tuesday, only two course of actions are in the horizon: to jawbone the Australian dollar or to cut bank rates, which now stand at a record low of 2 percent.

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Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: April 1, 2016

After Janet Yellen's speech which supported a discreet strategy towards the interest rates raising, the dollar fell in opposition to almost all currencies. Her comments were presumed by the investors as rhetoric which cause the stock market to grow.

The price's first support occurs at 0.9580 and at 0.9500 subsequently. While it's first resistance resides at 0.9660 and at 0.9750 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a downward movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.

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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: April 1, 2016

The EUR/USD posted its highest rates in five months, a strong end to cap the first quarter of the year. Gaining more than 4.75 percent during the first three months, this is also Euro’s best quarter against the dollar in almost five years.

The pair is now trading at 1.1381 in a range between 1.1310 and 1.1412. The Euro is trying to break into the 1.14 level as traders wait for the upcoming economic data from the US side.

The US will release data on nonfarm payrolls later today. About 210,000 are expected to be added to the already strong labor market, but should it reveal more than the expected amount, the dollar may recover its losses since Tuesday.

It is also possible for the nonfarm payrolls to not pull the dollars up as

(The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.9% following a series of increases in labor force participation.)

Fears on Britain’s exit in the EU and a high inflation rate buoyed the Euro against bearish greenbacks.

The Eurostat revealed yesterday that March’s inflation rate dropped by 0.1 percent from a -0.2 percent in February, far from the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target inflation.

Meanwhile, core inflation (which strips off the most volatile industry such as food, and energy) increased to 1.0 percent from last month’s 0.8 percent, the highest in six months. However, the core inflation’s rise is only attributed to businesses’ seasonal price hike for the Easter holiday and not necessarily to the whole month.

Earlier in March, the ECB cut interest rates to the red, and if needed, they will do more in the future, ECB governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 1, 2016

The New Zealand dollar is maintaining a bullish trend against the US dollar despite lack of economic data released in recent days. It appears that the kiwi is only propped up by the dollar’s sell-off and not because of strong economic performance.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates in early March. Talks of another rate cut is rife as the RBNZ’s policy meeting in April comes nearer.

The bird landed at a daily low of 0.6890 in earlier session but has since bounced back to its days-long attempt of beating the 0.69 level and possibly hover pips below 0.70.

Employment data from the US is scheduled to be released later this session.

The first support is at 0.6853 and 0.6818 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 0.6939 and 0.6973 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a positive level. The price is declining.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 5, 2016

In the midst of the Construction Sector increase, the Gross Domestic Product of the UK in Q4 was re-assessed upwards. The business activity index occurs at 54.2 contrary to the reported 54.0 which is more than expected. The increase of the pair was finite due to fears about Brexit and the market could not disregard the probable demand on the oil market. The activity of the GBP/USD pair was merely influenced by the oil price.

The first support of price occurs at 1.4240 and at 1.4160 subsequently. The first resistance lies at 1.4320 and at 1.4400 subsequently.

The price is along the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen forms a descending movement and the Kijun-sen displays a horizontal motion creating a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is revising.

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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 6, 2016

After months of rally, the Australian dollar finally experienced a setback as the week started with disappointing data and a slowly recovering US dollar.

Retail sales for the month of February was unchanged from the previous month’s 0.3 percent, a big letdown from the forecasted 0.1 percent increase.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of household goods and department stores posted the highest increases with 0.4 percent, while the food sector decreased by 0.2 percent.

During Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold onto its 2.00 percent interest rate, sending the AUD to the bears. RBA governor said in a statement that the “economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom.”

Contrary to an expected verbal intervention to weaken the AUD, Stevens did not jawbone the currency which has risen steadily since the start of the year, even sounding dovish toward its appreciating value.

Inflation hit a seven month low of 1.7 percent while the RBA’s target range is from 2 to 3 percent. Trade deficit rose to A$3.410 billion in February from January’s A$3.156 billion. It was projected to shrink to A$2.600 billion.

After days of losses, the USD picked up over the weekend due to a positive nonfarm payroll that further strengthened the labor market.

The pair touched 0.7536 today, recording a five-day low. Heads are now turned to Fed’s meeting later today.

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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 13, 2016

The Westpac Consumer Sentiment slid in April for the second consecutive month to 95.1 percent from March’s 99.1 percent. A level below 100 shows that pessimists outnumber the optimists for the short-term and long-term outlooks.

The consumers’ bias toward economic conditions over the next 12 months and the next five years were reduced by 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Family finances compared to one year ago dropped by 3.8 percent, while family finances over the next 12 months waned by 6.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the unemployment expectations index softened by 1.8 percent, which means that consumer confidence on low unemployment rate is high.

The disappointing and a bit surprising figures squashed hopes that the public’s confidence will follow a considerably optimistic trend because of the previous four consecutive releases above 100.

Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said that consumers are probably seeing the strong Australian dollar as detrimental for future growth. The media and RBA officials have openly said that the AUD may be overvalued.

The low consumer sentiment is offset by China’s hefty trade data which sent the AUD to bullish territory. After a 25.4 percent fall in March 2015, Chinese exports grew by an immense 11.5 percent, surpassing the forecasted 2.5 percent by leaps and bounds. However, it is important to note that the measured period included the Lunar New Year, a considerably lavish celebration by the Chinese.

Chinese imports contracted by 7.6 percent, positively missing the projected 10.2 percent decrease. This leaves the country’s trade balance at $29.86 billion, slimmer than the estimated $34.95 billion.

Mixed statements from Fed officials on Tuesday injected volatility into the US currency as Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that he is backing rate hikes this year due to inflation’s fast pace. Meanwhile, Fed Dallas President Robert Kaplan said that an interest rate in April does not bode well for the weak economic growth.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2016 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percent, the third consecutive cuts it made since July last year. IMF estimated the US economy to grow by only 2.4 percent this year, lower than January’s 2.6 percent projection.

The AUD has broken into 77 cents in earlier session, but is now back to 0.7670.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 13, 2016

The Euro was clipped during Wednesday’s session after the International Monetary Fund commented, for the first time, about the enormous damage of the United Kingdom’s possible exit from the European Union.

Trading at a narrow range of 1.1342 to 1.1393, the Euro continues to drop against a slightly stronger USD which was lifted by higher crude oil prices. The US will release its retail sales and crude oil data later today.

The first support is at 1.1306 and 1.1249 subsequently. The first resistance is at 1.1426 and 1.1483 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position and the price is decreasing.

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Technical Analysis for USD/JPY: April 14, 2016

There were two reasons which caused the yen to put under pressure. Firstly, it was because it cannot withstand the development of Nikkei and the last thing is, its fall is an aftermath of the statement of Japanese Ministry which regards to the probable action launching that is intended to restrict the inflation of the national currency.

The first support occurs at 109.00 and at 108.20 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 109.80 and at 110.60 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen creates an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion. The descending movement will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is retrieving.

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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 14, 2016

Upbeat labor data failed to lift the AUD above 76 cents against the USD. The Australian dollar opened at 0.7654 and hit a day low of 0.7619 in later session.

The first support is at 0.7602 and 0.7563 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7685 and 0.7724 subsequently.

The dip comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed positive employment figures, most of it surpassing projections. The unemployment rate in March was at 5.7 percent, 0.1 percent lower than February’s 5.8 percent. Analysts expected it to increase to 5.9 percent in March.

This is the lowest unemployment rate since September 2013. According to employment minister Michaelia Cash, the number of working people increased 2.2 percent, while the unemployed fell by 4.6 percent in the past 12 months. Furthermore, 26,100 jobs were also added, topping an estimated 20,000 additional jobs.

The report also showed that people scored more part-time jobs as it increased by 34,900, a 10-month high, while full-time jobs dwindled by 8,800. Participation rate rose by 0.9 percent.

However, investor sentiment was unfazed as more sold their AUD for a slowly recovering greenback despite US retail sales in the red. The US inflation report will be published later today.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is decreasing.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 15, 2016

The repercussions of three days imposing increase of the pound/dollar was it has initiated rectification. The Bank of England has announced its minutes and the interest rate decision wherein the rate was kept at the same level. The unpredictability of the Brexit caused the currency to remain under pressure.

The first support occurs at 1.4080 and at 1.4000 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4160 and at 1.4240 subsequently.

The price is in the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen forms an ascending movement which creates a "Dead Cross".

The MACD indicator is in a neutral location. The price is retrieving.

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Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2016

The risk assets may be affected by the outcome of the summit in Doha, and beforehand, the volatility of the market already reduced. Moreover, the US currency had gone under pressure which is the aftermath of the Fed statements and the poor inflation data from the US. Dennis Lockhart, Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta, stated that he would not go for a rate hike in April as he supports a careful approach to the monetary policy tightening because of low consumer spending. The market volatility heightened by the end of the trades.

The US issued the Industrial Production volume for March. The index occur at the level of -0,6% m/m wherein the recent value was -0.50% m/m while the report was -0.60% m/m and the Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan for April. The index have shown 89.7 wherein the previous value was 91.0 while the report was 92.3.

There was no important impact on EUR/USD the inflation data of the Euro area wherein the index came in the zero value after decreasing by 0.1% y/y. The Euro zone issued the Trade Balance for February wherein the index displayed 19.0 billion euro and the recent value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar increased.

The Bank of England let the rate remained at the level of 0,5% and the Bank pointed to the risks relative to the Brexit. The pound stayed appeased to the regulator's speech. The GBP/USD pair aggressively grew by the end of the trades.

The investors were upset by the poor US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports. The US and Japanese government bond yields reduced which caused the US assets to lessen its charm. The USD/JPY pair diminished by the end of the trades.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 18, 2016

The bird reached a high of 0.6939 in early trading after the Statistics New Zealand released the consumer price index (CPI) for the first quarter of the year on Sunday.

The CPI was on the upside at an increase of 0.2 percent as it surpassed analysts’ forecast of 0.1 percent, recovering from 0.5 percent fall in the last quarter of 2015. The index grew by 0.4 percent from the same period last year, which only rose by 0.1 percent.

Cigarettes and tobacco had the biggest contribution as prices surged by 9.4 percent, while oil prices dropped by 7.7 percent. The upbeat CPI will most likely relieve some pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to not rush the next rate cut in April.

Although the kiwi dollar has recovered its losses during the weekend, its gains against the USD are still inconsistent as we saw it hit an intraday low of 0.6883. The pair is now trading at a wide range of 0.6849 to 0.6940.

The first support is at 0.6881 and 0.6847 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6968 and 0.7003. The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.

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Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2016

In the middle of risk aversion in the stock markets, the dollar came low. While the attention in the safe assets heightened amidst the cheap oil prices. The fall of the oil prices was due to the negative outcome of the oil exporter's meeting in Doha. The dollar have gone under pressure caused by the poor US data which is low than expected. The UDS Industrial Production decreased by 0.6% contrary to the expected 0.1% whilst the Capacity Utilization lessened to 74.8% from 75.4% and lastly, the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April reduced to 89.7 contrary to the reported 92.

Serving as a funding currency, the euro were sustained by the decline of the risk appetite. Also, the attention in the risky assets slacken caused by the slowdown of the Gross Domestic Product increase of China and the poor economic statistics from the US. The primary reasons that cause the dollar to fall were the decrease of economic inflation of China to its bottom-most level and the average negative statistics on the US inflation. The euro/usd pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

A technical rectification to the psychological level of $40 per barrel was caused by the traders that acquired profit and closed their orders in oil contracts. Traditionally, inferior energy prices had a negative effect on the British currency. The oil price heightened and the pound/dollar pair increased by the end of the trades.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley stated on Monday that the US labor market has recuperated firmly and the Central Bank would slowly pursue to make the interest rates remained normal. An Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production were negatively reported in the past week. These also played into the bear's hands in the dollar/yen pair. The dollar/yen pair increased by the end of the trades.

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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 19, 2016

The minutes of the RBA’s policy meeting on April 9 was released today, revealing the board’s optimistic outlook on the economy. Although there is a slight hint of downplaying the Aussie dollar, we are yet to see a tough jawboning from Governor Glenn Stevens to balance the AUD’s surging value and the target inflation rate.

“Members noted that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate progress in activity rebalancing towards the non-mining sectors of the economy,” the RBA said.

A continuous increase in commodity prices can cushion the blow of an ‘overvalued’ AUD. After sliding several pips leading to the minutes’ release, the pair reached a 10-month high of 0.7779. The recovery of oil prices also helped the currency regain losses.

On the flipside, a snap election in July was confirmed by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull earlier today, casting a shadow on the AUD’s uptrend against the USD.

Meanwhile, Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren dismissed pessimistic investors, saying that the Fed is likely to raise the rates due to a modest increase in wages. In his speech, Rosengren’s deviates from his usually dovish stance, adding that “rate increases are absolutely appropriate.”

The pair is drifting just below 78 cents. The exchange rate is currently at 0.7778.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 20, 2016

The probability of a rate hike was lessened by the Bank of England which may cause the pound to stay unstable. The English regulator dwelt the risks for the country economy when Brexit takes place amidst decision-making regarding the interest rates last week. Mark Carney stated on Tuesday that the effect of Brexit would not be sustainable and it would cause a financing of the payment balance more pricey.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance stands at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is over the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal motion creating a "Golden Cross". The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is growing.

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: April 20, 2016

Despite a more positive than expected ZEW Economic Sentiment in the Eurozone, the Euro still failed to break through the 1.14 levels although gaining against the dollar.

Economic sentiment, which measures investors’ outlook for the economy, reached 21.5 in April from last month’s 10.6. Analysts predicted only 8.8 this month. The economic sentiment in Germany was released yesterday as well, surging to 11.2 from last month’s 4.3, eclipsing forecast of 8.0.

The Euro is still trading within a narrow range of 1.1352 to 1.1375 and is 30 pips shy of reaching 1.14. The support is located at 1.1335 and 1.1235 subsequently, and the resistance is at 1.1420 and 1.1500 subsequently.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi will announce the future of interest rates on Thursday, but it is expected that the bank will retain the current 0.25.

On the other hand, the USD index fell due to housing data revealed to be below projections, hinting a downtrend in the real estate and construction sectors. Building permits issued was down to 1.086 million from 1.177 million, a 7.7 percent fall from the previous month. The number of houses that started construction also slumped to 1.089 million to 1.194 million yoy.

As of time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.1368. The MACD indicator is at negative location and the price is rising.

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 20, 2016

The pair is experiencing a retracement as the USD outperforms the NZD, halting the bird’s third consecutive day of uptrends. The kiwi dollar is trading just eight pips above the 0.70 handle as of time of writing.

Data pointing to the opposite situation was released today. The GlobalDairyTrade(GDT) index rose by 3.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Whole milk powder, New Zealand’s biggest export goods, grew by 7.5 percent, while skim milk powder added 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the US’ housing data tumbled with only 1.086 building permits issued from 1.777 million in the previous month. Housing starts skidded to 1.089 million from last year’s 1.194 million.

The first support is at 0.6840 and 0.6656 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6926 and 0.7068 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is dropping.

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: April 21, 2016

The GBP/USD strengthened as the pair positively increased earlier despite oil prices gains and the attraction in risky assets. The Brexit rivals count has been decreased. Perhaps, there had been a positive impact on the British people the deterrents of government lately regarding the immense effect of the country exit from the European Union.

The first support occurs at 1.4320 and at 1.4240 subsequently. The first resistance resides at 1.4400 and at 1.4480 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy buy signal has been found. The price is over the Ichimoku Cloud and it is on top of the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays an ascending motion and the Kijun-sen creates a horizontal movement. The ascending movement will remain until the price is over the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is correcting.

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