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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 30, 2019

The euro major pair was able to break through to different  support levels without difficulty, which gives a strong sign of weakness. At the same time, the pair was able to pull back whenever it reached a fresh lows of the year, as shown on the daily chart. 

Forecast on the early weeks are the levels of 1.1170, 1.1150, and 1.1135, which induced a bounce of the pair for this week. Although the rallies for recovery from the said levels were not that high. The pair stayed at the level of 1.1135 the most and has broken below it  during the North American trading on Wednesday. 

Focused on the release of the GDP data for this week, it did not really have much of an impact to the market. Moreover, there are also reports on pending home sales, unemployment claims and the speech from FOMC member Clarida. 

There is no clear breakdown lower than 1.1135 on the 4-hour chart. A sustained break would then aim for last week’s low, which is a major support in May around 1.1109. Furthermore, there is also liquidity below the area of 1.1097 and 1.1100. 

It will take a break above 1.1150 to trigger a broader recovery and to entice some of the bears this week to cover their positions. If such an event materializes, strong resistance is found at 1.1170. In addition to the horizontal level, both the 100 and 200 moving averages are close to each other.

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: May 31, 2019

The euro positions higher than the US dollar on Friday with a threat of recession and Fed rate cut at the later months of the year. In case of a drop down in the US Treasury yields, this will give a strong signal for a reduction in Fed interest rates. As of the moment, the Fed has been calm as their action is relative to the data. They are aware that trade disputes and tariffs have a negative influence on the economy. Assuringly, they would only act once when they know the outcome of inflation, as well as in the labor market. 

On Thursday, a report from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. inflation was much weaker than initially thought in the first quarter amid a sharp slowdown in domestic demand. On Friday, traders will get the opportunity to react to the April Core PCE Index. The report is expected to come in at 0.2%. On Friday, data on Core PCE index is scheduled to be released with a forecast of 0.2%. 

In inflation, the Fed target of 2% was reached by traders in March 2018 for the first time since April 2012. The most recent forecast will be 1.5% y-o-y. This figure will support the Fed for more rate cuts, which in turn will give a bullish sentiment for the euro. 

Looking at the numbers, the euro major pair could rise higher if buyers can break the 1.1215 mark. Overall, the trend shown a downward movement, although the momentum is rising since the price reversal as it closes at the bottom of 1.1107. 

A trade beyond 1.1107 will counter the closing price reversal and implies a continuation of the downtrend. There is a high chance for the trend to change around 1.1215. 

The minor range is 1.1107 to 1.1215. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1161 is controlling the short-term direction of the EUR/USD. 

The main range can be found between 1.1264 and 1.1107 with the retracement zone at 1.1185. The next target will likely be at 1.1204 and long-term Fibo level at 1.1185.

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 3, 2019
 
The euro major pair had a sudden reversal on Friday to remove losses early in the week. The drive shows a chance for further gains. Yet, I anticipate a pullback during the trading session with some resistance levels around. 
 
On the 4-hour chart, it shows confluence on the resistance from the 100-MA and descending channel headed upward. The 200-MA is just above the 100-MA that could give more resistance, which is recently at 1.1193. 
 
During the North American session, the closing the 4-hour candle is a necessity and closing around the lows could lead to an evening star pattern, which could then prompt traders for a short position. 
 
The EUR/USD pair resides higher than the 200-MA on the hourly chart. A rebound could bring the price up, above the horizontal line of 1.1170. 
 
The level of 1.1183 offers quite a strong resistance, seeing the previous losses and the existence of the trend channel in the current situation. 
 
On the horizontal level of 1.1150 was seen converging to the 100-MA, which can become strong support should it go down. 
 
Even if the current momentum is directed upward, there is a chance for a pullback given the resistance at hand. There is also a possibility for testing of the support around 1.1150. There will likely be various stops above 1.12 and can cause volatility as the bears react to safety on the situation. Nevertheless, the pair can move higher by the end of the week and a long position can be considered if it reaches around 1.1150/1.1144.

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 6, 2019

The euro major pair dropped suddenly on Wednesday trading hours, which then resulted in a reversal candle on a daily chart. This opens the possibility for a good rally. Overall, the direction of the trend will be relative to the ECB which will meet later this day. 

The current trend indicates a downward movement more than expected. Meanwhile, different central banks eased the monetary policy or at least mentioned that they are open to doing so. Draghi will probably adjust the inflation forecast downward to an extent. In case that he chose to ease the policy amid the declining economic numbers, then the common currency will highly likely decline amid a high pressure. 

Looking at the average movement, there is not a high chance for the EUR/USD pair to return above yesterday’s high. This would show as much as 86 pip rally since the opening. 

Traders are suggested to look at the level of 1.1260, the level of which traders are likely to be aware of in the current situation. This has been on the lows twice last month and possibly be the limit at the present time. Although, it may not be that relevant after looking at the present levels. 

As mentioned previously, there is also a significant resistance higher than the said level, especially considering the 100-MA and 38.2% Fibonacci from the high to low of this year. Although, it is less likely to retest the Fibonacci. Thus, I would focus my attention on the level of 1.1273, considerably that yesterday showed a strong reversal pattern. 

There is also some support found around 1.1185 in case of decline due to the ECB on the 4-hour chart. This area will likely be maintained as the 100-and 200- MA are converged at the said price unless the ECB chief will have a new trigger to spike this. 

As for the hourly chart, the price resides around 1.1185 at the 200-MA. There is some upward resistance at 1.1260 as a considered level. Yet, I would not clearly put a stake on a surge of increase beyond it. 

In general, if the meeting turns are usual as expected, the pair will likely rally. It is suggested to look into the upper resistance and short yesterday’s high.

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 11, 2019

Last week, the Fed monetary policy is anticipated to have a dovish sentiment while the ECB has a strong stance about the economic outlook on the common currency. 

The main concern of the Fed is inflation as the decline in inflation will likely have a negative impact, which will then prompt the Fed to loosen their policies. 

Weak inflation would work well with the purpose and push the strengthening of the euro. The market already anticipates and prepares for the probable Fed easing. Nonetheless, there is a risk accompanied by inflation, which is why we can expect the euro major pair to have a hard time maintaining upward momentum before the release of economic data. 

On the technical outlook, the pair looks like having a hard time in the horizontal resistance around 1.1318, which has been significant resistance in April and was a support for some time. 

Initially, the pair testing the opening of the North American session. Thus, the traders during the early European session tried to raise the price higher, however, it was a failed attempt. 

Therefore, we can consider the level of 1.1318 as psychological level in the short-term. There is a chance for an increase in a condition that the pair closes above the said level on the 4-hour chart. Otherwise, it will maintain its range-bound trading. 

Meanwhile, the pair has been moving higher during the opening on the hourly chart of the Monday North American session. There is not much momentum to raise higher and a flag pattern is not confirmed. 

On the other hand, the level of 1.1294 can become resistance and support. This just shows the 38.2 Fibonacci compared to the year’s high to low. Thus, there is a chance for the pair to drop lower than the level but there is a probability for the pair to reach around 1.1280. There is not much volatility expected prior to the publication of US inflation. 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 13, 2019

The result of CPI data yesterday did not push the EUR/USD to move higher than the 200-MA (weekly) as it was seen below prior to the release. Hence, the traders are likely to focus on the US retail report scheduled on Friday. 

The final CPI data was shown to have increased by 0.2%, meeting the expectations. The unemployment data from Italy also resulted as anticipated in the first quarter of the year. Yet, these data did not have a big impact on the exchange rates. 

For this week, the 200-MA (weekly) presents to be a difficulty. Moreover, the pair is trading importantly around the indicator for a year. 

The pair has tested the August level last year, which was seen to move above it for a few months until it broke down in March. As of recently, the sellers were successful in the rally, which can make trading quite difficult. 

The pattern gives a bearish sentiment on the hourly chart. Soon after the inflation data yesterday, the euro major pair broke lower and the pair reached 1.1260. The support level of 1.1280 also gives psychological significance. The 100-MA is also shown to be converging to the horizontal level. 

On the 4-hour chart, the price level of 1.1280 reflects significance given the ascending channel from the May low at the same area. 

Given the decline, the downturn of the price is expected to move momentarily with the psychological levels at 1.1280 and 1.1260. Given the confluence in the support region, there is a possibility not to reach the next target despite the presence of a flag pattern. Traders may have difficulty in breaking the resistance from the 200-MA. 
 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 14, 2019

The euro major pair dropped to a range lower than 1.1280 prior to the release of the US retail sales data.  It is likely that markets will focus on the Fed more than the retail sales. There is an important shit in expectations after the analysts noted three rate cuts for the year. 

The meeting scheduled next week will determine the policymakers course of action. Meanwhile, the markets are hoping for a signal on their next move, even earlier than the July meeting. Thus, the rally of the EUR/USD was due to the shift. If this is confirmed, then there is a chance for an upward movement. 

There is a high probability that the markets will look for a chance to cell the dollar after the initial reaction in the results of the retail sales prior to the Fed meeting. 

The previous bear flag pattern in yesterday’s report is still significant with the lower target at 1.1260 as the euro major pair heads below with low momentum. Nonetheless, it is still not too far from the target. 

Yet, traders should monitor the level of 1.1280 in the US trading hours. The market tries to push it higher during the early European session but the rally was not sufficient to be sustained. 

The pair stays range-bound on the 4-hour chart. Traders should also get ready to have some volatility in the US session, although it will not be much given that its Friday. 

It is also important to note that a made a breakthrough to the target level of 1.1260 moves to a bearish confluence with a resistance level that is important last week. Hence, there is a possibility to have a retest to defend this area.  A break higher than 1.1280 can open chances for an uptrend while the upcoming Fed meeting next week keep the bids for the pair at bay. 

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EUR/USD Daily Analysis: June 17, 2019

The euro major pair is consolidating close to the 200-MA on the 4-hour chart after its recent drop on Friday. Nonetheless, the pair has a possibility to bounce upward. 

There was a boost for the pair to move lower due to the US retail sales data which strengthened the dollar. It was not able to hold the level as high as 1.1343 at the beginning of the week even to 1.1200 after the release. 

The Fed meeting is anticipated to be dovish that makes the market uncertain if the rate cut will push through, although there is a chance for the price to be reduced by as much as 20% at the beginning of the European session. 

On the one hand, the futures market did not turn hawkish after the retail sales, as it simply means an extended rate cut took place earlier than anticipated. The possibility of another two rate cuts in the past meeting is still on the plate. 

There is not much expected in the economic calendar except for the speech of Draghi today and tomorrow. Even so, the previous one did not really have an impact on the market. Thus, there might also be no reaction this week. 

Although, a short surge in volatility could take place due to the expected inflation data from the euro. 

There is a horizontal support level at 1.1204 on the 4-hour chart. This level plays an important role, considering the 1.12 level and the 200-MA close to it. A bounce off may take place when the decline fades this week. There was an important rally in late May that supports the decline in the early June. 

There is a strong downward impetus on the hourly chart, considering that there was a bear pattern last week while aiming for 1.1260. When the pair reaches this figure, there is support found below on the descending channel. 

Moreover, since the pair strengthened after the release of the retail sales, it implies the strong presence of sellers and they are determined to take the lead. Hence, recovery is not far from happening at the moment. 

We can expect resistance at 1.1237 in the next trading session and a confluence with 100-MA on the 4-hour chart. If this succeeds, it opens the possibility of the pair to reach the resistance of 1.1260. Any significant changes may occur after the Fed meeting and for now, trading promotes a range-bound movement.

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