Technical And Market Analysis By Vistabrokers

[Guest Vistabrokers]

AUD / USD. Will the Correction Begin?

In anticipation of the US employment data release quotes of the pair are frozen near a line of a medium-term trend. Meanwhile the latest wave of reduction has already been corrected to 38.2% Fibonacci, which gives us formal grounds to enter a short position if getting additional signals. At the same time, a breakthrough of the resistance line is also not excluded, because at the beginning of February the long-term trend line of the channel was tested, which in any case should not be ignored. Thus, it is dangerous for the deposit to take decisive actions directly before the main event of the month.

It is recommended to closely monitor the pair dynamics, keeping the willingness to buy on the resistance level 0.7910 break. Bears are limited with the mark 0.7624. Within this range boundaries we do not recommend to act decisively.

EUR / USD is Looking for Support and does not Find it

Yesterday's meeting of the ECB is now a history. The market got specifics regarding the asset repurchase program, which is a part of the quantitative easing, start on March 9 (as it became known). Thus, the ECB will buy securities even with a negative yield. The central bank seems to by very optimistic regarding prospects for economic recovery in the region due to low oil prices, as well as considerably reduce of the single currency in the foreign market. Amid this quotes have made several strong movements, close to the upper boundary of the formed channel, but only to give bears a point for new sales. We have the new eleven-year minimum, as well as all the prerequisites for further reduce. The downward movement can get e renewed momentum from today's publication of the US labor market data.

It is recommended to hold short positions, refilling them in the case of the pair rebound from the trend line in order to achieve the opposite channel border. More conservative tactics is to wait for today's statistics from the US Department of Labor and then enter at the break of yesterday's low (1.0986).

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Vista Brokers: Euro Moves Closer to Parity with Dollar

On Thursday, the single currency has decreased during the trading day first on expectations of the ECB meeting and Mario Draghi press conference, and then on the information that the European Central Bank has given to the market. Vista Brokers analysts say that the euro against the dollar has freshed the 11-year low, reaching the level of 1.100. Thus, the euro zone currency is getting closer to parity with the US dollar, which many experts predict.

So, yesterday the ECB held its first meeting since the launch of quantitative easing program was announced. Rates remained unchanged as it was expected, and the central bank revealed some details about asset purchases. The program starts on March 9. In the accompanying statement, the regulator noted that the purchase will be carried out gradually and on a wide range of assets.

At the press conference Draghi reiterated that the ECB plans to buy assets in the form of private and public sector liabilities in the amount of 60 billion euros per month during the period from March to September 2016. The total volume of quantitative easing will be 1.1 trillion euros. The plans also include the ECB's purchase of assets with a negative yield if it is above the deposit rate (-0.2%). Analysts say that this fact has led to a sharp drop in European bond yields.

Meanwhile, the euro is at a minimum in September 2003 against the dollar. In tandem with the Japanese yen and other major competitors, the single currency also fell.

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Vista Brokers: Markets Wait for US Labor Market Data

Today during the American session will be released statistics that can influence the dynamics of major currency pairs, as well as affect stock markets. These are data on unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls in the US. Vista Brokers analysts note that the strong data would strengthen confidence regarding the Fed rates hike in June or even earlier.

It is expected that in February, the US non-farm payrolls rose by 240,000 after rising 257,000 in January. Thus, February may be the 12th consecutive month, when the number of jobs is increasing by more than 200,000 monthly, and it will be the longest period of growth since 1994.

In addition, experts expect a decline in the unemployment rate from 5.7% to 5.6%, as well as a small increase in the average wage: 0.2% after rising 0.5% in January. Recall that recently the largest US companies said that this year they will increase wages of their employees. So, the biggest retailer Wall-Mart will provide more than one billion dollars to raise wages of 40% employees. Other companies, like TJX Cos Inc and health insurer Aetna, have also announced wage increases.

Given all these facts, the US labor market looks really healthy, and it increases the likelihood of rising interest rates by the Fed. Analysts say that if today's data will be even more than expected, market participants can move their expectations of growth rates on May. The dollar may be able to gain versus all counterparts.

Expectations of strong data today have supported Asian stock indexes. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan grew up during the Asian session 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei gained 1% amid the yen falling against the dollar.

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Market Pulse 06.03

7:00 ** Industrial Production - January (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Industrial production gives a small contribution to GDP, but it allows to predict the dynamics of interest rates. Therefore, the growth or exceeding the forecast may be favorable for the currency. Analysts expect a small growth of the indicator on a monthly basis.

8:15 ** Consumer Price Index - February (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). Experts expect that the growth of the consumer price index on a monthly basis in February was 0.1% after falling 0.4% in January. Although it is unlikely to give support to the Swiss franc - the inflation is expected to fall by 0.6%.

10:00 ** Revised GDP - Q4 (euro zone)
10:00 ** Gross Fixed Capital - Q4 (euro zone)
10:00 ** Household Consumption - Q4 (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). According to forecasts, the GDP growth in the 4th quarter amounted to 0.3% mom and 0.9% yoy. The gross fixed capital is also the important business climate indicator.

13:30 *** Building Permits - January (Canada)
13:30 *** Trade Balance - January (Canada)
13:30 ** Labor Productivity - Q4 (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). These are sufficiently important indicators for Canada, which could affect the national currency. In January, analysts expect the growth of building permits by 5.5% after a significant increase in the previous month.

13:30 *** Trade Balance - January (USA)
13:30 *** Unemployment Rate - February (USA)
13:30 *** Non-Farm Employment Change - February (USA)
13:30 ** Change in Private Payrolls - February (USA)
13:30 ** Change in Manufacturing Payrolls - February (USA)
13:30 ** Average Hourly Earnings - February (USA)
13:30 ** Participation Rate - February (USA)
13:30 ** Two-Month Payroll Net Revision - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The most anticipated data of the day, which can significantly affect the greenback dynamics against all major competitors. It is expected that the unemployment rate in February fell by 0.1%, while the number of non-farm payrolls rose by 241,000.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD is in Little Demand

Once again the US currency has strengthened in the foreign exchange market and also in the adjacent market where the gold price has made one of the most significant movements in recent months. The reason for the fall was the long-awaited data on the US labor market, which is globally confirmed that one of the world's largest economies is rapidly growing. In a narrower sense, it means that in the near future the Fed can loose all arguments in favor of keeping monetary policy unchanged, and will be forced to go to its tightening. In other words, US treasuries are doomed to yield growth, that in comparison with its lack for gold will force investors to get rid of the yellow metal in favor of the greenback.

So, the price has overcome a support line of a long-term uptrend, which increases the risks of continuing medium-term downtrend in an existing channel boundaries. At the same time, bears were not been able to push the level of support corresponding to the January minimum. It is recommended to hold short positions opened on the break of 1190 and to add to positions on the break of 1163 dollars per troy ounce.

EUR / USD. Speaking about Prospects...

At the moment we see a full wave reduction in boundaries of a downward price channel, which was launched back in the distant 2008. Since then, the market experienced strong fluctuations, because of all possible crises - from the subprime mortgage crisis to the European debt one, whereas now the ECB is launching an unprecedented asset purchase program. Simply put, the European Central Bank switches on its printing press for the benefit of bringing the region's economy in a sense (60 billion euros per month). Will the European QE replicate the success of the Fed's one? That remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the quotes overcame a major support level - the 61.8% Fibonacci correction from the growth in the period 2000-2008. That definitely adds confidence to sellers.

Giving the dynamics of the pair, the next target of bears will be the lower limit of the above-mentioned channel, the achievement of which is very likely to be on an equal value - one euro for one dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Non-farms and Unemployment did not Disappoint the Market

On Friday, the dollar updated 11-year high against the euro and rose against the other competitors after strong data on the US labor market. Vista Brokers analysts note that the statistics was oppositely directed, but main landmarks of the Fed - employment in the non-agricultural sector (non-pharms), and the unemployment rate came out better than expected. This reinforces expectations of market participants that the Fed will raise rates in the middle of the year.

Thus, the euro fell to 1.0886 dollars from 1.0986 dollars loosing during the day 1.4% and breaking level of 1.09 for the first time since September 5, 2003. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar rose by 0.4% to 120.70 yen from 119.91 yen earlier.

Note that the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US in February rose by 295,000 against the expected 240 000. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% compared to 5.7% last month, less than expected 5.6%. In addition, hourly wages - another important indicator for the Fed, rose in February, though slightly less than the market expected (0.1% vs. 0.2%).

Earlier, the Fed said that it would consider raising interest rates when the economic data, particularly data on inflation and the labor market will be strong.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Fell due to Strong Dollar

On Monday during morning trading Brent crude oil has lost 43 cents, falling down to $59.30. WTI fell by 27 cents to $49.34. Vista Brokers analysts point out that during the previous week both brands of oil have finished with a decline. The main reason is strong data on the US labor market, which provided significant support to the dollar. This factor has forced investors to forget about geopolitical tensions and the threat of a possible decline in production in Libya and Iraq.

On Friday, the dollar hit a 11-year high against a basket of currencies after data on the US labor market. Statistics showed that the unemployment rate in the US fell to a minimum of May, 2008 - 5.5%. Non-farm payrolls rose by 295,000, exceeding the forecast for 55,000.

Analysts expect that this week Brent will be traded in the range of $ 55.36- $ 63.04 and WTI - in the range of $ 48.45- $ 55.02.

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Market Pulse 09.03

A new busy week has started in Forex, though on Monday there is not so many important releases. Australia today has already published an ANZ job advertisements index. Japan has released Eco Watchers Surveys. The most important event of the day is a Eurogroup meetings.

7:00 ** Trade Balance - January (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency as it reflects flow of funds to the country's economy.

14:45 ** ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase - March (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). ECB announces its weekly balance sheet, from which investors and market observers conclude about scale of the ECB bond purchase. Expansion of purchase is a signal for greater activity of the central bank, which puts pressure on the euro.

*** Eurogroup Meetings - March (euro zone)
** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - March (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Today's meeting of the Eurogroup, as well as the previous one will be held under the Greece sign. Over the weekend, Athens sent the Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Deysselblum a letter in which they urged to initiate discussions between representatives of Greece, the ECB, the European Commission and the IMF, as well as introduced a series of reforms that the country agrees to hold. The list consists of seven major reforms, including the establishment of an independent Economic Council, the introduction of an upper limit for government spending and Internet gambling taxation, measures to combat bureaucracy and financial support to the poorest people of Greece.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Price is Close to Strategic Support

We have a breakthrough of the indicated in our previous review level 1163, which means that a decline continues in a downward channel of last few weeks. During this time, the price has dropped from $ 1,300 per troy ounce to current levels, and, apparently, it is not the end. The nearest support level (local minimum of November 2014) is located at 1142, whereas the last bastion of bulls is at 1130. At this level is also the five-year minimum, where in November 2014 buyers have begun their counterattack after failing to break below the correctional Fibo level 61.8% of support from the growth in 2008-2011.

It still makes sense to work in a southerly direction with abovementioned targets. Upon reaching the level of 1130 we should be extra careful because here, as expected, the further dynamics of the instrument may be indicated.

USD / JPY. Buyers Demonstrate Serious Intent

Quotes continue their ascent in the medium-term rising channel, having currently reached its upper limit and freshed the maximum value since July 2007 - at the moment quotes have broken the mark of 122 yen per dollar. According to some economists, dollar in this pair is strengthening relatively slow, but, in our opinion, there are some limiting factors: close completion of the fiscal year in Japan and the corresponding income repatriation by investors and companies. Perhaps, this factor will cease to affect the market at the end of the month, which will give a new impetus to growth. Note that the next week it will be a regular meeting of the Federal Reserve, which market is already beginning to take into account in the form of dollars' purchases.

Quotes fixing above USD / JPY 122.00 will signal to refill long positions, however, to deduct the breakthrough we need more arguments in the context of said rising channel boundary impact, as well as the impact of the resistance level corresponding to multi-year highs of the pair. The probability of the false breakout is high, but if the next wave of growth to be, then it will be large-scale.

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Vista Brokers: Fed Rate Hike Probability Pressures on Metals

On Tuesday, the yellow metal has updated three-month low on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates in the middle of the year. Vista Brokers analysts note that the probability of the Fed rates hike for the first time since December 2008 from a historical low of 0-0.25%, is putting pressure on precious metals. Raising rates could lead to a significant strengthening of the dollar and the decline in demand for protective assets.

Today during morning trading, April gold futures on Comex fell by 0.49% to 1160.8 dollars per troy ounce, updating the three-month low at 1163.45 dollars per troy ounce. May futures for silver on the same stock exchange decreased by 0.42% to 15.71 dollars per troy ounce.

On Monday metals received a short-term support before the Eurogroup meeting, where the situation in Greece was discussed. Economic problems of the country mean increased demand for safe-haven assets, so that each new round of negotiations, as a rule, support the price of gold. Yesterday the Eurogroup led by Jeroen Deysselblum rejected a revised list of reforms proposed by Athens, which means a happy ending is far away.

Amid the failure of Greece at the Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday markets returned to the subject of interest rates of the Fed. Impact on the precious metals still have data on the labor market, which came in the United States on Friday. It was reported that the unemployment rate in January fell from 5.7% to 5.5%, while the number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector grew by 295 000. Analysts have predicted a decline in unemployment to 5.6% and growth in the number of jobs by 235 000.

Thus, real values have exceeded forecasts, causing large fluctuations in the financial markets.
Analysts suggest that the labor market data, released on Friday, will have an impact on the gold in the medium term.

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Market Pulse 10.03

On Tuesday the economic and financial affairs council (ECOFIN) meetings is held. In Australia, has already been published the NAB business confidence index, in China – the consumer price index and the producer price index. The most interesting event of the day promises to be the BOE governor Mark Carney's speech.

6:45 ** Unemployment Rate - February (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). Analysts expect that in February, the unemployment rate in Switzerland rose from 3.1% to 3.2%. The growth of the rate may adversely affect the dynamics of the Swiss franc.

7:45 ** Industrial Production - January (France)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that industrial production in France in January has shown a decline of 0.2% since the previous month it had risen by 1.5%.

14:00 ** JOLTs Job Openings - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Job openings is considered to be a not too important indicator when compared with statistics on the US labor market, which was published last Friday. However, currently the US labor market receives much attention because of the expectations regarding to the Fed rates hike, so this indicator can also affect the greenback's dynamics.

14:35 ** House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee hearing - March (UK)
14:35 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - March (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Market will look in the statements of Mark Carney for hints that the Bank of England will go on the path of monetary policy tightening after the US Federal Reserve. Positive comments about the economy, inflation, the real estate market investors may understand as a signal for a possible rate hike in the foreseeable future.

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Vista Brokers: Trend for EUR / USD is Still Downward

Despite weak attempts to rise, which the euro has made on Monday, the trend for EUR / USD is still downward, and the bears will be able to hold their positions for a long time. Vista Brokers analysts say that the single currency tends to parity with the US dollar, but perhaps even 1 mark will not be able to provide sustainable support to the euro.

There are many reasons for it, and in the first place is the difference in the monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed. If the first CB is just beginning a program of quantitative easing amid low rates to support the economy, the second one plans to raise rates amid its recovery. Also, the pressure on the euro puts the situation in Greece. Country where radical political forces have come to power, can not negotiate with creditors to restructure debt and the list of necessary reforms. And it begins to blackmail the eurozone with a referendum on Greece's exit from the monetary union.

According to the results of yesterday's Eurogroup meetings, a revised reform plan, submitted by Greece, has not been approved by ministers of finance, so probably this month, the country will not receive financial bailout. According to the Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Deysselblum, a list that Athens gave at the meeting was different from the first list of proposals which has been performed two weeks ago, and in such a "raw" form it can not be accepted. Deysselblum previously stated that the EU is willing to give Greece the first tranche of 7.2 billion euros in March, but only with the consent of all reforms.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

AUD / USD. On the Way to Fresh Lows

After Friday's more than optimistic data on the US labor market, AUD / USD has made a significant leap down (at the moment the size of the movement is more than two figures), rebounded from the medium-term trend line in its direction. As a result, today a new six-year low was achieved. It is worth noting that the Reserve Bank of Australia leaders are still interested in further reducing of the national currency in the foreign market – today it was confirmed by the head of the RBA economic forecasts department Kent. As arguments he has named the situation with the current level of unemployment, which, by the way, had reached 13-year highs, and a drop in iron ore, the price of which, in turn, is at multi-year lows. Today, China has reported on industrial production (6.8% yoy against the expected 7.7% yoy), and retail sales, where the growth rate decreased to 10.7% in annual terms vs 11.9% a month earlier.

It is recommended to hold short positions. The global target can be a support line drawn through lows of 2001 and 2008.

USD / CAD Remains Stable, despite Dollar Strength

Quotes have reached the upper limit of a shallow rising channel at 1.2700. In general, the loonie in recent weeks was showing a relative stability against the main beneficiary of the foreign exchange market after the Bank of Canada has set out its wait-and-see attitude to the possible change in interest rates, whereas previously the market had expected a further reduction in one of the next meetings. Among upcoming events that can qualitatively affect the current situation, we can note scheduled for Friday data on the labor market in Canada. Before this data we can count on a relatively quiet trading in a range with a high probability.

It is recommended to wait for confirmation of a rebound from the upper border of the channel by means of oscillators (eg, Stochastic) and to sell in order to achieve its opposite graphical boundary. A Protective stop should be moved behind the current local maximum of 1.2703.

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Vista Brokers: Greek Revised Reform Plan Failed to Impress Creditors Again

On Tuesday the euro continued to decline against its main competitors, and European bond yields hit new lows. Vista Brokers analysts note that the pressure on the euro has strengthened after the launch of the ECB quantitative easing program on Monday. Moreover, the situation in Greece makes currency to reduce.

It should be noted that Greece has performed another updated list of reforms ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, but international lenders were not satisfied again. They especially did not like the idea to combat tax evasion and youth unemployment at the same time, represented by the Greek government. This idea is to hire students, housewives and even foreign tourists who do not have appropriate education, as tax collectors.

The Eurogroup head Jeroen Deysselblum summed up the new phase of talks on Greece, noting that the country urgently needs to carry out real reform, not just to discuss them, otherwise it will not get the money. The next stage of negotiations with the "troika" of creditors (EU, IMF and ECB) will be held today.

On Tuesday, European stock markets were basically flat. Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose by 0.2%, the German DAX was down by 0.3% and France's CAC 40 index lost 0.2%.

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Vista Brokers: AUD / USD Freshed its Lows

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar has dropped amid weak statistics and general strengthening of the US dollar due to expectations of the Fed interest rates hike. Vista Brokers analysts note that during the Asian session on Wednesday AUD / USD pair has dropped below 0.7600, reaching its lowest level since 2009.

Today's statistics has helped the Australian dollar to fall. Thus, the Westpac consumer sentiment index in March fell by 1.2%, from 100.7 in February to 99.5. In February, the index rose sharply, after the Reserve Bank of Australia had unexpectedly lowered the rate, but after this, as a rule, should be a rebound, so the level of consumer sentiment falled in March.

Among other factors of the index reducing can be noted a sharp increase in gasoline price and weak GDP data. Latest statistics showed that the growth of the Australian economy in the 4th quarter of 2014 amounted to only 0.5%. Consumers are concerned about the economic outlook and the stability of the labor market, and lower interest rates had only a temporary effect, reducing their anxiety.

Also today, data on changes in the volume of mortgage lending came out in Australia and showed a 3.5% decrease in the number of loans, which is much higher than the predicted 1.9%.

A speech of the RBA deputy governor Christopher Kent did not add any positive. He reiterated that the acceleration of economic growth in the short term should not be expected, that unemployment may rise more than expected earlier, that the outlook remains uncertain. He also said that interest rates support the economy and, in particular, the real estate market, and that the low Australian dollar contributes to some sectors.

Analysts note that the statistics released today should not have such a strong influence on the Australian dollar. The main reason for the decline is a strong US dollar, which is risen on expectations of Fed tightening.

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Market Pulse 11.03

On Wednesday, some interesting data will be released in the UK, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce a decision on interest rates. China has already published data on industrial production, as well as on fixed asset investment.

7:00 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - March (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). This Monday the ECB has officially launched a program of quantitative easing, so that Draghi's comments may be related to the expectations in regard to this program. In any case, in his speech, market participants will be looking for hints of further central bank's actions.

9:30 *** Industrial Production - January (UK)
9:30 ** Manufacturing Production - January (UK)
15:00 ** NIESR GDP Estimate - February (UK)
15:00 ** MPC Member Martin Weale Speaks - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Many analysts believe that the UK is the next applicant for the increase in interest rates after the United States. Investors are now looking for confirmation of this hypothesis, and positive data on industrial production, as well as on NIESR GDP estimate can be perceived this way.

20:00 *** Official Cash Rate - March (New Zealand)
20:00 *** RBNZ Rate Statement - March (New Zealand)
20:00 ** RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement - March (New Zealand)
20:05 *** RBNZ Press Conference - March (New Zealand)

Strong impact on the market (NZD). Analysts do not expect any surprises from the RBNZ and suggest that the bank will keep its key interest rate unchanged – at the level of 3.50%.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 12.03

After yesterday's sharp fall of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, investors were waiting for data on the Australian labor market, which came early in the morning. Statistics was surprisingly positive. The unemployment rate in the country decreased by 0.1%, while the number of employees increased by 15.6 thousand. Analysts had expected the unemployment rate will remain at the same level, and employment will grow by 15.3 thousand. Some interesting data will be published today in the United States.

10:00 ** Industrial Production - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect a small growth of industry in January, after zero growth mom and decrease yoy a month earlier.

12:30 ** New Housing Price Index - January (Canada)
12:30 ** Capacity Utilization Rate - January (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). Expectations regarding these data is moderately optimistic. After the Bank of Canada contrary to the predictions did not go to the next interest rate cut, the position of the Canadian dollar strengthened. Weak statistics can disturb this delicate balance.

12:30 *** Retail Sales - February (USA)
12:30 *** Core Retail Sales - February (USA)
12:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - February (USA)
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - February (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - February (USA)
12:30 ** Import Prices - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). After a strong labor market data on Friday, the dollar has received considerable support and continues to grow. Perhaps the positive data today will help the greenback to strengthen its position. In general, forecasts are optimistic.

12:45 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - March (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Carney's optimistic statements may boost the pound, but the head of the Bank of England may once again remind of retained risks for the British economy, the weak inflation and the troubled real estate market. In this case, the pound could come under pressure.

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Vista Brokers: EUR / USD Started to Fall more Quickly

On Wednesday, the single currency continued to decline against the dollar on expectations associated with the Fed interest rates hike in June and the ECB quantitative easing program launching. Vista Brokers analysts note that a divergence of the United States and the euro zone monetary policies, on the one hand, stirs up investors' interest in the dollar, and on the other - puts pressure on the euro.

According to experts, the euro tends to parity in relation to the dollar. If on Tuesday EUR / USD has been closed at 1.0698, then on Wednesday it dropped down to 1.05562. Fall below 1.5000 would mean the lowest level since January 2003. Note also that the yield of European countries' bonds during the last week fell to record lows. The dollar index has already risen to almost 100.

Recall that on Monday the European Central Bank has launched the quantitative easing program, which involves the repurchase of bonds in the amount of 60 billion euros per month and 1 trillion euros for the whole program. Meanwhile, the Fed may raise interest rates as early as June of this year. Strong labor market data, published last Friday, have strengthened investors' hopes for rates hike.

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Vista Brokers: Gold Continues to Fall vs Dollar Strengthening

On Wednesday, gold has fallen to 4-month low amid growing demand for the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts note that the US currency continues to strengthen in the full currency market range: against the euro, franc, pound and other competitors, due to expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates in June. The growth of currency reduces the demand of foreign investors for gold and other precious metals.

By the end of trading on Wednesday on the COMEX April gold futures were down by 9.50 dollars, or 0.8%, to 1150.60 dollars per troy ounce. This is the lowest closing level since November 6, when contracts have ended the session at 1142.60 dollars per ounce.

Thus, the yellow metal was at the level just above $ 8 from the new low of nearly 5 years, and analysts believe that this reduction opens the way to even lower values. Gold does not bring investors income in the form of dividends or interest, so it will be difficult to compete with profitable assets such as treasury bonds and shares amid the Fed rate hike.
Waiting for the Fed interest rates hike in the middle of this year has an impact on all financial markets. On Tuesday the Wall Street Journal has reported that the Fed will probably remove words about "patience" in relation to the interest rate hike from the accompanying statement at the next meeting. This will be an additional signal to the fact that in June the central bank will decide to increase rates.

Note that the Fed will be the first of the largest global regulators who raise rates, as in the past few years we see only decline. Especially noticeable is the contrast between the Fed and the ECB monetary policies. That is why the decline in the euro against the dollar is currently very strong. Thus, on Wednesday, EUR/USD has fallen to 1.0547 level, which is not so far from a parity, continuing to lead from the start of the ECB quantitative easing program.

Other precious metals show the same trend as gold does. Platinum yesterday has dropped in price by 1.3% to 1115.40 dollars per ounce (the lowest closing level since 2009). Palladium fell below $ 800 per ounce for the first time since February 24. Silver lost 26.8 cents to $ 15,365 per ounce.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: US Retail Sales Disappointed the Market

After Friday's strong data on the US labor market, investors for several days were in euphoria in relation to the dollar. This has led to a significant increase of the currency against some of its competitors. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Thursday retail sales data in the United States suspended the rising dollar and forced currency to fall against the euro and the yen.

Thus, the volume of retail trade in February showed a decline of 0.6% against the expected growth of 0.3%. The volume of trade excluding car sales fell by 0.1% against the projected growth of 0.6%. This is the third consecutive monthly decline. In January, sales fell by 0.8% after falling by 0.9% in December.

Thus, despite the apparent improvement in the labor market and the decline in oil prices, consumption is not restored - households remain cautious. This may temper the enthusiasm of investors in the Fed interest rates hike. Recall that at the moment market expectations subtends a rate hike in June this year. After the publication of weak statistics, the euro rose from 1.0622 dollars to 1.0633 dollars. The dollar fell against the yen to 120.88 yen from 121.03 yen.

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Vista Brokers: Investors Fixed Profits on EUR / USD and USD / JPY

Dollar has stopped to grow against the euro and the yen after weak data on retail sales in the United States, published on Thursday. Vista Brokers analysts say that weak statistics has become a signal for the end of the week-long dollar rally. It is a long overdue pullback, and after the data release, investors began to take profits on EUR / USD and USD / JPY.

EUR / USD has risen from 1.0548 to 1.0635, but currently is still near 12-year highs. USD / JPY on Thursday has dropped from 121.45 to 121.28, but on the Friday morning, returned to the starting position. The pair is at the highest level since July, 2007.

Recall that the strengthening of the dollar against major competitors began when on Friday, March 6 the strong data on the US labor market was published and led to increased expectations of the Fed interest rates hike in June. Then, on Monday, March 9 ECB launched its quantitative easing program and began to purchase bonds, which further undermined the position of the euro. European bank seeks to increase liquidity in the euro and lowering bond yields to help economic growth in the euro zone and push inflation. The Bank of Japan has also significantly softened its monetary policy.

Analysts believe that profit-taking after the week-long rally does not mean that investors have lost confidence in the dollar. In medium and long term, the US currency tends to the uptrend. Today, some accents can be arranged by statistics on the producer price index and consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan in the United States. But the focus of investors will now be sent to the next week FOMC meeting. Perhaps the Fed will make some sort of clarity about when rates begin to rise. Or vice versa they will disappoint the market with the lack of specificity or doubts.

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Market Pulse 13.03

On Friday, an important statistic is expected mainly in the US and Canada. Data on producer price index and the index of consumer sentiment in the United States may have a significant impact on the US dollar.

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - February (Canada)
12:30 *** Employment Change - February (Canada)
12:30 ** Full Time Employment Change - February (Canada)
12:30 ** Part Time Employment Change - February (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Expectations about Canadian labor market data are optimistic: experts predict a decrease in the unemployment rate from 6.6% to 6.5%. This may support the Canadian dollar, which is already felt confident after the Bank of Canada did not cut interest rates once again, contrary to expectations.

12:30 *** Producer Price Index - February (USA)
12:30 ** Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). After falling by 0.8% in January, analysts expect growth of the producer price index by 0.2% in February. Strong data could support the dollar.

14:00 *** Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - March (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). In March analytics expect the index growth to 95.6. The US consumer sentiment is improving, so that the actual data can be even stronger than forecast, which could support the dollar.

15:15 ** MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks - March (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Comments of the Monetary Committee member will attract the attention of investors because they can shed light on sentiment in this BoE body, which takes decisions on interest rates.

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[fxapex]

EURUSD has gained a bit, there is lot of buying in this pair so its better to hold, but still going for short trades only.

[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. Reducing Gains Momentum

A next support level for GBP / USD (1.4813 – a minimum since June 2010) has been broken, while the movement of the pair gains momentum, despite a lack of visible weakness of the British pound. It is commonly believed that it is all the fault of the strong dollar, because the US economy is now the most confident among other developed countries and this gives reasons to expect from the Fed some steps of the monetary policy tightening in the near future. Yield is always at the head for investors, so the dollar is now enjoying the highest demand.

Reducing still takes place within a well-shaped channel with a tendency to accelerate, and we should use it for classical work with the trend, but do not forget about the impending Federal Reserve meeting (will complete on Wednesday), which is much expected. This can cause market players to take profits on short positions, which may positively affect the dynamics of the pair. In this case, the 1.4230 mark (minimum since May 2010) remains a long-term target.

USD / JPY. What Games are Japanese Officials Playing?

A direction of long-term and short-term channels is still upward. Tomorrow we expect the Bank of Japan meeting, which may surprise the market (this has happened more than once), especially after a number of high-ranking officials have repeatedly voiced a new rhetoric in their interviews with the media, as well as in public speeches. According to this rhetoric, the BoJ will no longer expand the asset repurchase program. Moreover, the current exchange rate is acceptable, but a further drop is undesirable due to increased cost of imports and consumer activity reducing.

It is recommended to be out of the market until BoJ meeting results will be published and its head Haruhiko Kuroda will end the following press conference. If the accompanying statement will not contain harsh statements to stabilize the yen, growth within the existing channel may continue. Otherwise, we expect the correction to the lower medium-term channel boundary to the level of 120 yen per dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Continued to Fortify its Positions

On Friday, the US currency was strengthening against its major counterparts in Forex, amid expectations associated with the Fed interest rates hike in June. Vista Brokers analysts say that the euro against the dollar has tested the level of a 12-year low below 1.05, closing the last trading week trading at around 1.05. The growth of the US dollar has also influenced stock and commodity markets.

Over the past week, the dollar index has risen by more than 2%, due to expectations that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy in a few months. Due to the greenback's strengthening, stocks and resources are reducing in price. MSCI All-Country World equity index has fallen on Friday by 0.8%, the index of developing countries - by 1%. European stock markets have gotten a support from the ECB quantitative easing program launching, so that the FTS Eurofirst 300 index was down only by 0.1%. Yields of bonds in the euro zone has dropped to record lows, due to the asset repurchase program.

It is also worth noting that the US stock indexes went down due to low oil prices, which, in turn, puts pressure on energy stocks. Thus, S & P 500, decreases the third consecutive week. Currently it is about 3% below the record level having set in March. Meanwhile, the yield of American treasuries is growing - on Friday it has increased to 2.0998% from 2.096% on Thursday.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Fell below $1.0500

On Monday, the single currency has dropped again after a weak attempt to grow on Friday evening. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the euro has experienced a short period of growth above $ 1.0600, but sentiment on the currency remains bearish, and today during the Asian session, the euro fell to $ 1.0457 (a minimum since January 2003).

Last week, the euro fell by 3.2%, which is the largest weekly drop since September 2011. The single currency is pressured by the ECB quantitative easing program, which implies the purchase of assets for an overall amount of 1.1 trillion euros to stimulate the economy in the euro zone.

Also, the difference between monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed is growing, because the US controller has closed its QE program and is now preparing for a gradual interest rates hike. Investors expect that this process will begin in June, as the latest statistics give quite clearly signals of the US economic recovery. Because of this, the dollar index was growing last week. On Monday, the DXY is at 12-year high of 100,420.

Note that the pressure on the euro still has the situation in Greece with its economic problems and possible exit from the euro zone. Yes, in late February, Athens has negotiated with creditors (ECB, EU and IMF) to extend financial bailout program for 4 months, but the reform plan has not been approved yet - all Greek offers of debt restructuring are rejected.

Analysts believe that both Athens and Brussels are ready to compromise - the only question is how long negotiations will take. As a result, it is likely that Greece's debt burden will decrease, and by reducing payments on loans, the Greeks will be able to spend more on the economy development and preventing a humanitarian catastrophe, which now hangs over the country. It is clear that Athens will not refuse from reforms, but a radical party Syriza will try to reduce them to a minimum and to slow down the implementation of reforms, because otherwise it will lose its popularity among Greek people.

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Market Pulse 16.03

Monday is not full of important information. Statistics, which can have a moderate impact on the market, will be released in the US and Switzerland. In Europe Mario Draghi will speak, and it, perhaps, will be the most interesting event of the day.

9:15 ** Producer & Import Prices - February (Switzerland)
9:15 ** Retail Sales - January (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). Predictions for these two indicators are rather optimistic. It is expected that after a January's decline, the producer & import prices index in Switzerland will increase by 0.4%.

12:30 ** Empire State Manufacturing Index - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The indicator is based on a survey of New York FRB district manufacturers. It is now at a high level, and in March, analysts expect the growth, which could support the dollar.

13:15 ** Capacity Utilization - February (USA)
13:15 ** Industrial Production - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Capacity utilization allows us to estimate how much free capacity the economy has. The indicator is very close to the level of 80%, which is considered dangerous for the development of the inflationary pressure. With regard to the volume of industrial production, experts expect a small growth of the rate.

14:00 ** NAHB Housing Market Index - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). It is the indicator of developers' confidence, measuring by NAHB, based on a survey of 900 developers in respect of current and future sales of private homes.

18:45 *** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - March (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Draghi comments can significantly affect the single currency as market participants are looking for signals for further action of the European Central Bank in the speech.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. It is Better to Stay out of the Market

GBP / USD has returned above a significant support level of 1.4813 (2013 minimum) which has been overcome on Friday. Prices are climbing to an upper border of a descending channel, and sellers may likely use this situation soon. However, it will unlikely happen until tomorrow's Bank of England meeting minutes publication, from which the market will receive the information regarding the power balance in the Bank's direction. Namely, it will be clear how many members actually voted for keeping interest rates unchanged. Also some details of the meeting may be very interesting.

It is recommended to fix results of open positions and wait for the publication of above mentioned minutes. We should also note that tomorrow results of the Fed meeting will be announced, and it will clearly affect the dynamics of the pair. So, given risks of increased volatility amid the low liquidity, there is every reason to stay out of the market tomorrow.

EUR / USD. It is Time to Rest

Having reached a lowest level of more than 12 years (1.0460) on Friday, the euro is gradually restoring against the US dollar. At the moment, the pair is at 1.06, and there is few reasons for this decrease in bears' activity. Among them is achieving of a long-term downtrend channel, history of which dates back to a record high of the pair in July 2008. It is likely that some market players will prefer to fix their current results on open positions here, at least until tomorrow's FOMC decision announcement. As expected, details of the FOMC meeting can be interesting, because no one believes that the regulator is ready for concrete steps in the form of rates hike right now, but the Fed should start to prepare the market for its further decisions. It is likely, that today ZEW indexes and the February consumer price index in the euro zone will have some influence on the market.

We will analyze an accompanying statement, that will be published after the FOMC rate decision tomorrow and consider a particular scenario for future EUR / USD dynamics. Meanwhile, it is recommended to close short positions.

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Vista Brokers: RBA Meeting Minutes Publication Put Pressure on Aussie

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar has dropped after the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes publication. Currency is trading at 0.7631, compared with 0.7645 shortly before the release.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the minutes made clear that the central bank is likely to continue to cut interest rates this year, but cautiously. While the RBA takes a pause, wishing to see fresh statistics after rate cuts in February. But the way to further easing of monetary policy is open, and the Reserve Bank believes these measures are appropriate for achieving the sustainable growth.

Recall that the RBA has cut its key interest rate to a record low of 2.25% in February. Then, in March, the rate value was retained, although investors have expected further cuts. Analysts remain confident that in 2015 the Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to stimulate the economy, as GDP growth slows and unemployment increases.

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Market Pulse 17.03

Today the Bank of Japan, which never tells the time of its publications in advance, publishes a decision on interest rates, data on the annual rise in monetary base and comment on monetary policy. The Japanese controller will also hold a traditional press conference. The Reserve Bank of Australia has already published its monetary policy meting minutes.

10:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - March (Germany)
10:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - March (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). The economic sentiment indicator shows the difference between the number of optimists and pessimists among financial experts. This indicator is closely monitored by markets, and can have a significant impact. Forecasts are optimistic regards this index as well as regards the index of the current situation.

10:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - March (euro zone)
10:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - March (euro zone)
10:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - Core - March (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that the slowdown in inflation in February was 0.3%, while the core consumer price index has risen slightly. Forecasts for the ZEW economic sentiment index are also optimistic.

12:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - January (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Volumes of manufacturing sales may be an early indicator of acceleration or deceleration of economic activity. Growth is favorable for the currency, but in January, analysts expect a fairly strong slowdown, so that the effect of the indicator may be negative.

12:30 *** Building Permits - February (USA)
12:30 ** Housing Starts - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The US real estate market has not pleased investors yet, as the labor market has, and expectations on the number of issued permits, and laid foundations are not too optimistic. However, the data can still surprise us.

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Vista Brokers: EUR/USD is Waiting for a Guide for Directional Movement

On Monday, EUR / USD was fluctuating in a fairly narrow range, trading above the 1.0500 mark. Vista Brokers analysts say that at the moment the pair is waiting for a guide to continue directional movement. It may get such a guide today from data on ZEW indexes in Germany and the euro zone, as well as the February inflation report in the currency union. However, much more likely that a new starting point will be a FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which is called the event number 1, not only for this week, but for the whole March.

On the one hand, investors feel a disturbance before the meeting, because their hopes for a rate hike in June may not materialize. Amid such sentiments dollar, which in the past couple of weeks has strengthened with confidence against its competitors, is now losing its ground. The weakness of the dollar has led to the fact that on Monday major currencies rose versus greenback. Stock and commodity markets were also able to recover.

However, on the other hand, the growth of the euro against the dollar is still limited, even with the disturbance about the upcoming FOMC meeting and positive outlook for ZEW indexes. An important role is played by the ECB's quantitative easing program, which has started last week. The European Central Bank said that in the first week of the program it was purchased assets in the amount of 9.751 billion euros of public sector bonds and 3.754 billion euros of asset-backed securities.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Markets Fade prior to Fed Meeting

Today at 18.00 GMT in the US following data will be published: FOMC economic projections, FOMC rate decision and FOMC statement, and at 18.30 will begin a traditional press conference with the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen. Vista Brokers analysts note that markets are waiting for these data, since they will likely affect the dynamics of many financial instruments: currency pairs, securities, commodities.

Investors expect that the Fed today will specify a lead time for interest rates hike for the first time in nearly nine years. Since 2008, the US central bank is keeping interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, and it did not increas the rate since 2006. Most analysts predict that the rate will be raised in the middle of the year, possibly in June. Recall that positive data on the US labor market, which has recently been showing clear signs of recovery, is adding confidence.

If the Fed shows a clear direction today, it would give a significant support to the dollar against major competitors. Monetary policy of the US central bank, in this case, would be contrary to most countries. Within a few months of this year 24 central banks lowered their rates, while the Fed is taking a course on monetary policy tightening. Especially large-scale stimulus measures are used by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

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Market Pulse 18.03

On Wednesday, there will be a lot of interesting publications, including the results of the Fed meeting, which is the event of primary importance. These results will be known only in the evening, and prior to the publication market participants will unlikely act actively. However, we should note other interesting publications of the day. Quite a lot of important statistics will be released today in the UK.

9:30 *** Claimant Count Change - February (UK)
9:30 ** Claimant Count Rate - February (UK)
9:30 ** Unemployment Rate - February (UK)
9:30 ** Average Earnings Index - February (UK)
9:30 ** Employment Change - February (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Data on the British labor market can be quite interesting. It is expected that the claimant count rate has declined in February, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.6%. Such positive data can give a significant support to the pound.

9:30 *** MPC Meeting Minutes - March (UK)
9:30 *** MPC Official Bank Rate Votes - March (UK)
09.30 *** MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes - March (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Simultaneously with a portion of labor market data will be released MPC meeting minutes, which can also be a determining factor for the future dynamics of the pound. It will be interesting to see an MPC voting pattern, as well as to know any details of the last meeting.

10:00 ** Trade Balance - January (euro zone)
10:00 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - March (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Prior to the Fed meeting, these data are unlikely to affect the dynamics of the euro. Note that Draghi's speech on Monday was quite optimistic. He has noted a stable economic recovery, a necessity of reforms and an importance of the euro zone unity.

12:30 *** Annual Budget Release - 2015 (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The UK Treasury publishes a budget plan for a next fiscal year, which begins in April. Investors will anatomize this release, analyzing plans of the Treasury for a year. This publication usually has an effect on the market, but not at once, because it takes time for market participants to conduct in-depth analysis.

18:00 *** FOMC Economic Projections - March (USA)
18:00 *** FOMC Rate Decision - March (USA)
18:00 *** FOMC Statement - March (USA)
18:00 *** FOMC Press Conference - March (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). These data may have a long-term impact on all financial markets. Investors do not expect the Fed to take any actions right now, but they wait for clearer guidelines about, when rates will be raised. If the market will not receive these guidelines, there is the risk of a significant dollar reduction.

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Vista Brokers: New Zealand Dollar Reacted to Global Dairy Trade Price Index Decline

On Wednesday, the kiwi fell slightly against the US dollar, having taken a lead from yesterday's weak data on the global dairy trade price index. Vista Brokers analysts note that diary prices dynamics have a strong impact on the New Zealand dollar, as these products are the main export items for the country.

However, the fall of the currency was limited prior to the FOMC meeting, which will be held tonight. Thus, NZD/USD has fallen to 0.7305 from 0.7377 on Tuesday.

Note that the global price index for dairy products, which is calculated on the results of GlobalDairyTrade auctions, has decreased by 8.8% compared with the previous auction on March 3.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Rhetoric Determines Trend

On the eve bears have "knocked in" a nearest support level (1142). Here they were met, but not banished away. It is likely that today, this level will be crucial in the context of the future dynamics determining. Though it will be after the Fed confirms or confutes ideas that market participants and relevant experts think it should announce today. Now all of them are practicing in predicting of the FOMC accompanying statement text, excluding or adding words, but only the Fed itself will set the record straight. It is likely that it will happen not at once, but during the press conference with Janet Yellen.

A main market strategy as for gold is to analyze the Fed's rhetoric, and if it would indicate impending steps aimed at monetary policy tightening, it makes sense to sell the yellow metal with the first target at 1131.77 (five years minimum). If it will not happen, then the above-mentioned level may become a foothold for a counter-offensive of bulls.

USD / CAD. Bulls Demonstrate Seriousness of their Intentions

As judged by a current pair dynamics, buyers remain at a crouch start before the Fed meeting. It is telling that at the same time, trading run within an upward channel, close to six-year highs. However, as they say, everything can change, so we should not act actively prior to said events (or better, also for some time after them).

One of logical decisions in this situation would be to put a pending order to buy at 1.2822 with a target of 1.3063. Looking ahead, we note that in the case of its achievements and the subsequent passage, a target value will be a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (1.3450) of the total decrease in 2002-2007.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Dollar fell after the Fed meeting

On Wednesday, the market was waiting for an accompanying statement of the US Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee, as well as for a press conference of Janet Yellen. Vista Brokers analysts note that as it was expected by many market participants, statement did not become less dovish, and thus interest rates hike in June is questionable. Perhaps markets will move their expectations to September.

After the FOMC statement publication, the dollar began to fall against its major competitors. EUR / USD briefly touched the level of 1.10, but could not stay on it and began to fall again after reaching this level. GBP / USD overcome the 1.51 level. Against the yen the dollar fell to 120 yen.

Many experts believe that the Fed's statement was no accident so dovish. In particular, Steve Enlander from Citigroup says that the dovish statement was a conscious action to reduce too rapidly rising dollar, and it do not reflect a real attitude of the Fed to interest rates hike. As it was expected the Fed dropped the word "patient" from its statement in terms of raising interest rates, and pointed out that everything depends on economic data.

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Market Pulse 19.03

On Thursday, the market continues to take a lead from yesterday's Fed decisions. Although today investors are also expecting for some interesting publications. In the US data on the labor market and the Philly Fed manufacturing index will be published, Swiss National Bank will hold a meeting and the ECB will announce allotment in 4-years TLTROs. In addition, today opens the EU economic summit.

8:30 *** Libor Rate - March (Switzerland)
8:30 *** 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range - March (Switzerland)
8:30 *** 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range - March (Switzerland)
8:30 *** SNB Monetary Policy Assessment - March (Switzerland)
8:30 *** SNB Press Conference - March (Switzerland)

Strong impact on the market (CHF). Libor rate decisions consider to be one of the most important indicators for the Swiss franc. Analysts do not expect any changes in monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank, but the policy assessment, as well as the following press conference can be interesting.

10:15 *** ECB Announces Allotment in 4-years TLTROs - March (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). The indicator shows the amount of the ECB loans to commercial banks. Large volume demonstrate increased demand for central bank's liquidity and may put pressure on the euro.

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - March (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - March (USA)
12:30 ** Current Account - March (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Data on the US labor market which shows weekly change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits traditionally have a significant impact on exchange rates. Analysts expect growth to 297,000 applications.

13:50 ** MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks - March (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Andy Haldane is a voting MPC member and the monetary analysis and statistics executive director. His speech can give markets direction in relation to BOE next steps.

14:00 *** Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - March (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of manufacturing companies in the region. March forecast is quite optimistic: analysts expect index to increase from 5.2 to 7.3.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. It is Dramatic, but is it Effective?

As it was expected, the results of the Federal Reserve meeting gave market players new food for thought. A reaction was predictable, since the tone of the statement, as well as a little modified targets for economic growth and inflation were not so hawkish, as market had expected. This reduce expectations regarding an imminent tightening of monetary policy and supports gold as a reaction to the US currency sales. However, the quotes are still in the medium-term downtrend channel that formally does not give reasons for purchases.

In the current situation it would be better to wait for further progression of events, so as the market dynamics will show us the best tactic. Thus, only a break of yesterday's daily high and consolidation above the resistance line may give reasons for purchases. If the price goes back under pressure, confirming another rebound from the trend line, sails with targets at 1142 and then at 1131 (five years minimum) per ounce will be priority again.

USD / JPY Bounces from Support Line

As it was expected, yesterday's Fed statement has led to a strong reaction in the market. Thus, the Fed dropped the word "patient" from the statement in terms of its monetary policy normalization (which generally gives the market a signal that a rate hike is around the corner), but the market was waiting for more rapid changes in the context of progressive improvement in the labor market. However, in order not to give investors a reason to buy greenback like mad once again, the Fed has signaled that the US economy still has some problems. That's why terms of the target inflation level achieving were moved to 2017. Also, a situation in employment will be monitored on a permanent basis. However, we can not say that for USD / JPY this caused irreversible effects compared to other major pairs, where the damage was higher. Thus, quotes have broken a support line of a short-term trend, than reached a medium-term support, and here the initiative was intercepted by buyers.

As a base conservative scenario it is recommended to wait for a current upward impulse correction before opening long positions. A first purchase target can be 122.00, where is the maximum of July 2007.

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Quickly Recovers vs Euro

After having risen to 1.05 after the FOMC statement on Wednesday, today EUR / USD has returned to a downward trend. Vista Brokers analysts note that the dollar is quickly recovering against the single currency, and the pair has almost returned to the levels reached prior to yesterday's statement publication. Although the statement' sentiment was not as hawkish as we market had expected, but it does not change the global situation. The US economy is recovering, and sooner or later the Fed will raise interest rates, while the economy of the euro zone is not in the best condition, which causes the ECB to soften its monetary policy.

As the Fed had promised, the word "patience" was dropped from the statement, which considers to be a signal that the rate hike is imminent. However, the Fed is not going to speed up this process, since the risk of the early rate hike is too high. This probably indicates that rates will be risen not in June, but likely in September.

In contrast to the currency market, which has reacted to the dovish statement with dollar sales, the US stock market rose on Wednesday. Standard & Poor's 500 index rose to two-week high, the index of companies with a small cap Russell 2000 rose to a record level, and the Nasdaq Composite overcome the level of 5000. Shares of all sectors except banking one has risen. The price of Brent crude oil rose by 4%, while the price of gold - by 1.6% (maximum daily increase since January 30).

Meanwhile, the euro is losing strength not only against the dollar but also against other competitors in the market. Thus, today, the single currency is declining against the Swiss franc after the Swiss National Bank has lowered its forecasts for GDP growth and inflation, which could mean new measures of economy stimulation in the near future. GDP growth forecast for 2015 was revised from 2% to 1%, the inflation for 2015 - from -0.1% to -1.1% and for 2016 - from 0.3% to -0.5%.

Some accents in the dynamics of the single currency can be arranged by today's ECB Economic Bulletin, as well as allotment in 4-years TLTROs announcement.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: After Temporary Decline Dollar Returned to Growth

On Thursday, the dollar regained positions after having decline against its major counterparts on Wednesday after the Fed meeting. Vista Brokers analysts remind that the FOMC accompanying statement was more dovish than market participants have expected, and this led to a maximum daily decline of the dollar for the last 6 years. The Fed has removed the word "patience" in respect of the rate hike, but has lowered the outlook for economic growth and inflation. This has pushed growth rates expectations from June closer to September.

However, the dollar has recovered its positions quickly enough and it argues that "bullish" trend for the US currency is based not only on speculation regarding the Fed's actions. Many experts still believe that against the dollar the euro, which has seriously weakened amid the ECB quantitative easing program launching and problems of Greece, will soon reach parity.

It is worth noting that on Thursday came out weekly data on unemployment claims in the US, which showed an increase in the number of applications by 1000 compared to the previous reporting week (291 0000 vs 290 000). Analysts expected that the number of new applications will be 295 000, so that the data was better than expected once again. The labor market is still one of the main benchmarks for the Fed, and on Wednesday the head of the Fed once again confirmed this, so that the market recovery will continue to provide support for the dollar. Note that at the moment the US unemployment rate is the lowest since May 2008 – 5.5%.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Rises while Dollar Weakens

On Friday, oil prices in the world market rise after one of the lowest close of the year on Thursday. Vista Brokers analysts point out that yesterday traders have feared regarding record volumes of oil inventories in the United States, but today the situation changed due to the weakening of the dollar against other major currencies.

By the end of trading on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange WTI crude oil for April delivery closed at $ 43.96 a barrel, losing 1.6% during the day. May Brent crude oil on London's ICE Futures Exchange fell by 2.7%, to $ 54.43 a barrel.

Recall that on Thursday the dollar was mainly declining against most major currencies after the US Federal Reserve meeting on the previous day, which has given no clear signals regarding the rates increasing. However, oil prices remained under pressure due to inventories increase in the United States. According to the Energy Information Administration, last week oil inventories in the country increased by 9.6 million barrels to 458.5 million barrels, exceeding forecasts. In Cushing, Oklahoma, oil reserves rose by 2.9 million barrels, and it is almost full occupancy of the hub.

The additional pressure on oil prices put Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali al-Omaira, who has said on Thursday that although the country is concerned about the influence of cheap oil on a budget, Kuwait will not reduce production because they afraid to loose market share.

Considering all these factors, analysts believe that the growth of oil will be short-lived. On Friday morning, May futures for Brent rose by 0.46% - up to 54.68 dollars per barrel. April futures for WTI fell by 0.11 percent - to 43.91 dollars per barrel.

Some experts believe that the main reason for the oil growth is the weakening of the US dollar after the Fed meeting. Market participants expected from the US central bank more hawkish clear signals to make clarity to the situation with the rates increase, but such signals have not been received. However, there are a lot of signals of the US economic, and in particular the labor market, recovery, so the dollar retains its potential for growth.

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Market Pulse 20.03

On Friday, a lot of important data will be published in Canada. Meanwhile, the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has already spoken, and in Brussels the EU summit is continued. Here will be discussed military conflict in Ukraine, extension of sanctions for Russia and the bailout for Greece.

9:30 ** Public Sector Net Borrowing - February (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Public sector net borrowing is the difference between revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments and government agencies. Growth is negative for the currency.

12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - February (Canada)
12:30 *** Core CPI - February (Canada)
12:30 *** Retail Sales - February (Canada)
12:30 *** Core Retail Sales - February (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Forecasts for all indicators are relatively optimistic. Analysts expect that the consumer price index rose after a small decline in January, as well as core retail sales did. Retail sales are expected to fell, but not as much as in January. This statistics is important and can have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar.

14:20 ** FOMC members Dennis Lockhart Speaks - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Dennis Lockhart is the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and a voting member of the FOMC, so his opinion affects the monetary policy committee, and Lockhart comments may affect the dollar.

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EUR / USD. We Prefer to Stay out of the Market

A major currency pair is showing signs of stabilization after amplitude fluctuations that followed the Fed meeting results announcement. Note that dollar sales had stopped at a correctional Fibonacci level 61.8% near 1.1040, and after it quots have already come down by about 400 points. Now the market is at a crossroads, as there are reasoned arguments, both for purchases and for sales. So, on the one hand, we have a difference in monetary policies of the ECB and the Fed, the first of which only begins a long journey called "quantitative easing", while second is going to increase interest rates soon (as the market expects). On the other hand, the euro was declining for the last 9 months, and it is likely, that the currency has already offsetting the value of the abovesaid factors.

It is recommended to stay out of the market until we will get important trading signals.

USD / CAD. Market is Quiet prior to Canadian Data Release

Last days fluctuations, when the pair has firstly fallen by three and a half figures, and then bulls won back most of lost positions, make us to think seriously about the risks. However, it should be noted that fluctuations still occur within the previously formed trading channel and only its frames overcoming will mark the beginning of a new trend. Today, during the US trading session (12.30 GMT) we expect quite important statistical publications in Canada, which will give an opportunity to predict the future dynamics of the pair. As expected, retail sales in January fell by 0.7%, while the February consumer price index increased by the same 0.7%.

We should not underestimate the potential market reaction to these publications. In the case of positive data bears can once again be proactive, leading quotes to a repeatedly tested line of support in the area of 1.2450. On the other hand, if data will be weak, then we can expect the pair to achieve a six-year high at 1.2833.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Quotes are leaving Downward Channel Boundaries

Gold price has overcome an important resistance level (1177.92), we had mentioned in one of our previous reviews, and also a trend line of the last 2 month downward channel. Apparently, bears are not ready to assault a 61.8% Fibo level of growth in 2008-2011, and it is recommended to take profits on short positions "until the circumstances are clarified" amid general deterioration regards the dollar, while a rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve in respect of interest rate policy is more cautious than markets expect. This gives reason to work on counterbalance.

Thus, it is advisable to hold long positions with a primary target at 1205 (38.2% correctional Fibo level of the whole decline wave in January-March). If the price returns to the abandoned channel boundaries we should consider the position closing and wait for new signals.

USD / CAD Provides New Opportunities for Buyers

Friday economic data (which caused a surge in volatility) on Canada remained behind, leaving USD / CAD with significant losses. Thus, despite quite optimistic consumer price index data (0.9% instead of the expected 0.7%), core retail sales (excluding car sales) completely failed. Thus, this index has decreased by 1.8% in January after the previous level of -2.0%. So, a rebound from a support line, where quotes have appeared firstly after the Fed meeting results, was corrected to 61.8%, where the price currently has an intermediate support.

At the moment, we have almost formed conditions for purchases. An ascending wave formation with subsequent moving averages overcoming may be a proof of it. In this case, a protective stop should be placed under a local minimum (1.2540). A target of long positions will be a multi-year high at 1.2830.

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Vista Brokers: Greek Optimism Supported Euro

On Friday, the single currency was rising against the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the last trading day markets have renewed a subject of Greece, and the fact that negotiations with creditors may come to an end, has supported the euro. As a result, EUR / USD finished the day at around 1.08213.

A question of financial bailout for Greece was taken up during a two-day EU summit in Brussels. Here a President of a European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said, among other things, that Athens can get extra 2 billion euros from own funds of the EU. Most of these funds will be directed to youth unemployment control, relief aid and small and medium-sized businesses development.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel during communication with the press at the summit said that Greece has promised to provide a revised reform plan as soon as possible. Markets are hoping that the "as soon as possible" will be today, as in the evening Merkel will meet with Greek Prime Minister Tsipras in Berlin. Hopes for a favorable outcome of negotiations was fueling the demand for the euro. But analysts warn that if a compromise between Germany and Greece is not reached, the single currency will quickly return to the downward trend. After all, time is running out - experts say that the money in a Greek treasury will end in early April.

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Vista Brokers: Saudi Arabia is not Going to Cut Oil Output

So has said on this weekend Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi, whose country is one of the largest miners and exporters of "black gold" in the world. The minister said that Saudi Arabia is not going to unilaterally cut its output to defend prices. Also he believes that it is unfair that the output should be cut only by OPEC countries, which have only 30% of the market. Vista Brokers analysts point out that al-Naimi speech has led to oil decline on Monday, during the Asian session.

Recall that in June 2014 when oil prices began to fall rapidly, markets expected that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will decide on the output reduction, and it will help to reduce pressure on oil prices. However, OPEC refuses to do so, as it is afraid to lose its market share, allowing non-OPEC exporting countries to open up new horizons. These countries are, for example, Russia and the United States. Many believe that it is the United States with its shale oil boom to blame for what is happening with oil. Speaking about non-OPEC countries, which should also accept the output cutting, Ali al-Naimi implied that both Russia and the United States and all other countries with a global market share should come to a common decision. But such an outcome is currently considered unlikely.

Therefore, on Monday morning oil declined. Brent futures were down by 53 cents to $ 54.79 a barrel, compared with Friday evening. WTI lost 58 cents, dropping to $ 45.99 per barrel.

Over the weekend in the Saudi capital Riyadh was held a conference, where several representatives of the country in OPEC have spoken. So, Mohammed Al-Mady expressed the opinion that oil prices will never go back to around $ 100 a barrel as it will be not profitable for main exporters. According to him, in this case sellers of more expensive energy sources, such as shale oil, will return to the market.

Another Saudi representative in OPEC Nasser al-Dossari announced its forecast that in the next 15 years the demand for oil will rise and output will exceed 111 million barrels per day.

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Market Pulse 23.03

Monday's economic calendar is almost empty. Attention of market participants will be attracted by a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi, as well as by a new round of talks on Greece. Today, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet in Berlin to discuss terms of the agreement.

11:00 ** CBI Industrial Order Expectations - March (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The industrial orders expectations index from the British Confederation of Industrialists is a leading indicator for the economy. Increase in the index is favorable for the currency.

14:00 ** Existing Home Sales - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). An important indicator of the US housing market health, which may affect the market. Analysts expect the index increase in February after the previous month declining.

14:00 *** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - March (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Comments of the ECB President Mario Draghi may have a significant impact on the market, especially at the period when the central bank takes such non-standard measures to stimulate the economy, as a recently launched large-scale program of quantitative easing.

15:00 ** Flash Consumer Confidence - March (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). This index is based on a survey of households on the level of confidence in the current state of the economy and its future development. Analysts expect a decline in consumer confidence, although not as significant as it was in February.

16:20 ** Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer Speaks - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Markets pay attention to Fisher's comments, because they can give the game of FOMC away. During his last speech the Vice Chairman said that the probability of this year rates hike is high.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Dollar Corrects from Earlier Reached Multi-year Highs

A new week in the currency market began with the euro increasing against its main counterpart. Vista Brokers analysts point out that at the end of last week, pessimism regards the euro after the launch of the ECB's quantitative easing program was replaced with the dollar weakness caused by the Fed's indecision. As a result, the euro and other major currencies were able to partially reassert themselves. Note that on Monday, the dollar index, which shows its price against a basket of other currencies, was down by 0.9% to 86.66.

On Monday, markets returned to the theme of Greece. Investors were looking forward to results of the visit of Greek Prime Minister Tsipras to Berlin and his meeting with German Chancellor Merkel. During the meeting, Athens refused compensation claims for damage during World War II. And Merkel, in turn, said that she is not against the establishment of Development Bank to support Greece. However, the country, where in 2 weeks there may be a default, did not receive any specific commitments on financial bailout.

Analysts believe that the reason for greenback reducing, which opens the way for other currencies increasing, is that investors have moved their Fed raising interest rates expectations from June to September. After the last Federal Reserve meeting, investors did not receive expected signals, and it gave them a cold shower regards the dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Dollar is weakening amid Fed Rates Increase Expectations Moving from June to September

On Tuesday, the dollar continued to decline against its major counterparts, going futher from earlier reached multi-year highs. Vista Brokers analysts say that the main reason for the greenback's increase against other currencies in recent weeks was that investors have expected the Fed raising interest rates in June. However, after unexpectedly soft statements of the Federal Reserve, which have not given any expected hawkish signals, market sentiment changed. Now, investors expect the first increase in interest rates in September.

During early Tuesday trading, the dollar lost 0.1% against the yen, trading at 119.64 against a 8-year high of 122.04 before the Fed last week's meeting. The euro rose by 0.1% to reach 1.0951, continuing to recover after reaching a 12-year low at 1.0457.

Yesterday the currency market participants lined some of their short positions in the single currency. Some experts expect that for a while the EUR / USD will trade in a limited range, although in the long term, the dollar may still "take its course." For example, Shaun Osborne from TD Securities is stall thinking that soon the dollar and the euro will reach parity. Although analysts do not expect the US currency growth in the near future, because inflation in the US in the next few months is unlikely to grow, and this factor will continue to put pressure on the greenback.

It is worth noting that recent statements of the Federal Reserve representatives had basically hawk character. Thus, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview on Monday that the dollar strengthening is a signal of the US economic recovery, but the strong currency may hurt exports. Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer confirmed that the probability of mid-year rates hike is very high. Also on Monday, San Francisco Fed President John Williams has spoken and his speech was regarded as a hawk.

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Market Pulse 03/24

After a quiet Monday came a busy with important information Tuesday, and today high volatility is expected in the market. China has already released its HSBC flash manufacturing PMI index. Lots of important statistics will be published today in the euro zone. Also investors are waiting for inflation data in the UK and the US.

8:00 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - March (France)
8:00 ** Flash Services PMI - March (France)
8:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - March (France)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that business activity in the French manufacturing sector has increased, as well as a PMI composite index. In a services sector they predict a slight decline.

8:30 *** Flash Manufacturing PMI - March (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash Services PMI - March (Germany)
8:30 ** Flash PMI Composite - March (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect a slight growth in all these three indices of the largest eurozone economy. Given the weakness of the dollar amid the US Federal Reserve indecision, positive data could support the euro.

09:00 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - March (the euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash Services PMI - March (the euro zone)
9:00 ** Flash PMI Composite - March (the euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect a slight growth in all three indices in the euro zone. Given the weakness of the dollar amid the US Federal Reserve indecision, positive data could support the euro.

9:30 *** Consumer Price Index - February (UK)
9:30 ** Core CPI - February (UK)
9:30 ** Retail Price Index - February (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Input - February (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output - February (UK)
9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output Core - February (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). A portion of British statistics, published today, is interesting for traders because it can determine the future dynamics of the pound. In particular, we mean data on the consumer price index, which is predicted to increase by 0.3% in February.

12:30 *** Consumer Price Index - February (USA)
12:30 *** Core CPI - February (USA)
12:30 ** Consumer Price Index - February (USA)
12:30 ** Consumer Price Core Index - February (USA)
12:30 ** Flash Manufacturing PMI - March (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Data can also be very interesting. Recall that in January, consumer prices in the US showed a decline of 0.7% month on month and of 0.1% year on year, but now analysts expect a growth by 0.2% and a decline by 0.1%, respectively. On whether the data coincide with forecasts may depend on the US dollar dynamics.

14:00 *** New Home Sales - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The indicator complements the statistics on sales in the secondary market and allows us to see the whole situation in the property market. It counts for much, since new homes sales consider to be an indicator of confidence in the economy.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

USD / JPY is Getting Closer to Event Horizon

Bulls still fail to trigger a growth from a trend - the US dollar continues its downward correction amid profit-taking after a prolonged growth. Today we expect inflation data in the US and it will probably be decided in the course of the US trading session to be or not to be a breakthrough of the said support line.

Better than expected (0.2%) data on the consumer price index increase will provide a basis for the pair growth (while purchases should be made only after getting confirmation from indicators). In case of weak data, bears will likely make an attempt to overcome a nearest support level (119.25 - the minimum, which has been reached after the Fed's statement last Wednesday). We must use it, acting accordingly (sale from 119.25), because the scope for the further reduction can not be overestimated.

EUR / USD. Restoring Gains Momentum

The single currency, along with the rest of the the American currency competitors, continues to recover, adding four and a half figures in last ten days. Today, during the European trading session will be published preliminary data on the level of business activity in the services sector, as well as the industrial sector, which might cause a new surge of optimism in the market, because expectations are rather optimistic. Many experts think that these data have the highest predicative function, showing appropriate further changes in the real sector. Currently the pair is moving within short-term upward trend boundaries, which is confirmed by the support line presence, as well as by the fact that quotes continue to be located above the average with period 25, shift 5 (trend indicator), that we use.

It is recommended to buy at the nearest resistance level (1.1042) breakthrough, and then at the next one (1.1096), which is corresponding to an extremum of a descending wave, ended in January, with the target of 1.1380 (the level where the latest wave of decline has started).

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: On Tuesday Publications were Multidirectional

Yesterday was published a lot of important data, and firstly we should note PMI indexes in manufacturing and service sectors, which have been released in France, Germany and the euro zone. Vista Brokers analysts note that in France indexes were lower than expected, in contrast to the data in Germany and the euro zone. Overall, the data suggest that the ECB stimulus measures work and business activity is increasing.

For example, in Germany manufacturing PMI grew by 1.3 versus expected 0.4, and the same index, but for the services sector increased by 1.5 versus 0.3. In the euro zone manufacturing PMI rose by 0.9 versus 0.6, and services PMI – by 0.6 versus 0.2. The composite purchasing managers' indexes also rose more than expected both in the euro zone and in its largest of its economy. The single currency rose amid these data against the dollar, as well as European stock markets did.

Later, the upward trend in the euro was replaced by downward one as investors expected strong data on the US inflation. Statistics did not disappoint market participants. In February, the consumer price index in the United States grew by 0.2% on a monthly basis, as it was expected. Year on year the index showed zero growth, but analysts had expected a decline by 0.1%. The core consumer price index excluding volatile food and energy prices showed an increase of 0.2% mom and 1.7% yoy, while the first data was slightly better than expected, and the second one lined with expectations.

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Vista Brokers: Strong Franc has a Negative Impact on Swiss Economy

Today in Switzerland a UBS Consumption Indicator for February was published at around 1.19 points. January data were revised down – from 1.24 to 1.11 points. Vista Brokers analysts note that the rate increase in February was mostly caused by increase of new car registrations number. The number of registrations increased by 13% compared with January, but it is still 3% below if to compare with the same period in 2014, when Switzerland had not raised taxes on carbon emissions.

Swiss economy in recent months clearly felt pessimism. A consumer sentiment index fell from 4 to -4 points. Most retailers suffer from the franc growth. In the short term it is positive for consumers, whose purchasing power has increased dramatically. But if you look deeper, too strong franc makes companies to cut costs, including reducing the number of employees. This may in the future lead to higher unemployment and lower wages.

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Market Pulse 03/25

Today the most important publications of the day will be IFO indicators in Germany, as well as durable goods data in the USA. New Zealand has already released trade balance data, and Australia has published an RBA financial stability review.

9:00 *** IFO Business Climate - March (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Current Assessment - March (Germany)
9:00 ** IFO - Expectations - March (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Data for Germany may give the euro a considerable support, as analysts' expectations are quite optimistic, and the dollar is now shaky, so that the single currency has more chances for growth.

9:30 ** BBA Mortgage Approvals - February (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). This indicator shows the number of loans for home purchases. It allows us to estimate the activity on the UK mortgage market, according to the largest banks.

10:30 ** FOMC members Charles Evans Speaks - March (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Charles Evans is a head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. He is the FOMC voting member, so his opinion affects the monetary policy committee.

12:30 *** Durable Goods Orders - February (USA)
12:30 *** Core Durable Goods Orders - February (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Analysts expect a small growth for both indicators. The first includes volatile prices, for example, from the aircraft industry. These are leading indicators of production trends, as well as of the investment activity.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Statistics Supported Euro

On Wednesday, the most anticipated event of the day was a publication of durable goods data in the United States. Vista Brokers analysts note that this indicator is a leading indicator of production trends and investment activity, and markets were expected a strong statistics in the context of the US economy recovery. However, actual data were significantly worse than expected.

Thus, in February, the volume of orders for durable goods fell by 1.4% against the expected growth by 0.3%. Core durable goods orders (excluding transportation equipment) fell by 0.4%, while analysts had expected growth by 0.3%. These data indicate a decrease in demand.

Unlike the US one, the statistics in the euro zone came out better than expected, opening the euro a way to a level of $ 1.10 against the dollar and to growth against other major currencies. IFO business climate indicator in Germany exceeded forecasts, increasingin March to 107.9 instead of 107.4. IFO economic expectations indicator showed growth to 103.9 vs expected 103.0. Investors saw positive statistics as a signal that the eurozone economy shows signs of recovery after the launch of the program of quantitative easing by the ECB.

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Vista Brokers: Markets Reacted to Yemen Escalation

On Thursday, stocks fell in Asia due to reduction in risk appetite. Oil climbs rapidely, the dollar strengthens against major currencies. Vista Brokers analysts note that since yesterday financial markets are affected by the conflict in the Middle East. In particular, on Wednesday, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf Arab allies launched air strikes in Yemen, against Houthi fighters.

A strongest impact geopolitical risks have on oil prices. On Wednesday, on the ICE exchange May futures for Brent crude rose by more than 2%, exceeding the level of $ 56 per barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX May futures for WTI crude oil added more than 3%, breaking the level of $ 49 per barrel. Today, the growth continues. WTI crude oil rose by $ 2.26 to $ 51.47 per barrel, and Brent oil – by $ 2.47 to $ 58.95 per barrel.

US Treasuries, which are considered safe haven, also increased, while gold rose to $ 2,000 per ounce. At the same time Asian stocks show a decrease. The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell by 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei showed the greatest day drop since mid-January - by 1.6%.

Earlier, on Wednesday the Wall Street has also declined. Nasdaq fell by 2.37%, and it is the maximum daytime drop in nearly a year. DJI fell by 1.62%, S & P 500 – by 1.46%.

There is a possibility that the conflict in the Arabian Peninsula will grow into a real war, as Shiite rebels are supported by Iran. According to Reuters news agency, Saudi Arabia and its allies are tightening the heavy weapons to the borders of Yemen. Yemeni President Hadi, who enjoyed the support of Saudi Arabia, fled the country when insurgents got to the southern city of Aden.

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Market Pulse 03/26

7:00 ** GfK Consumer Climate - April (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). A leading consumer climate index from GfK characterizes consumers' sentiment, their willingness to spend money and attitude to the economy by the beginning of the reporting month. The growth of the rate may be favorable for the currency.

9:00 ** M3 Money Supply - February (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). An indicator reflects changes in M3 money supply. It demonstrates the growth of cash and non-cash funds in circulation. Increase is positive for the currency, as it reflects the risk of inflation.

09:30 *** Retail Sales With Auto Fuel - February (UK)
9:30 ** Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel - February (UK)
9:30 ** Financial Policy Committee Statement - March (UK)
11:00 ** CBI Realized Sales - March (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The most important among this portion of statistics are considered to be retail sales with auto fuel data. Analysts' forecasts are optimistic - in February rate is expected to increase by 0.4% after falling by 0.3% previous month.

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - March (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - March (USA)
13:00 ** FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks - March (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The indicator, which shows the number of Americans who have applied for unemployment benefits during the reporting week, is very relevant and closely monitored by the market now. Forecasts for the past week are optimistic.

13:30 *** BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks - March (Canada)
20:00 ** Annual Budget Release - 2015 (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Market participants attentively listen to comments of Stephen Poloz, as they may contain some hints to change the course of monetary policy, or to change the Bank's assessments of the economic outlook.

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GBP / USD. Situation is Heating up

A situation with the pair resembles a wound-up to a limit spring, which is ready to burst soon. Fluctuations amplitude is gradually reduced, which is confirmed by converging lines of graphic consolidation figure "triangle". Today at 9.30 GMT data on retail sales, as well as the quarterly report of the Bank of England, will be published in the UK, and it will likely cause a breakthrough of at least one of the closest price levels, giving us a reason to enter the market in an appropriate direction.

We may talk about a possibility of opening positions in the direction of the triangle's exit only in the case of the level 1.4990 (buy) overcoming, while sales are recommended only when the price will overcome the level 1.4830. In such cases, it is important not to outperform the market, but to be abreast with it.

USD / JPY. Bulls Failed and Retreated

As it was expected, in order to hit important (from a technical point of view) lines and levels of support it was needed a proper reason. Yesterday this reason was (not at once) the release of disappointing data on durable goods orders in the USA. They were particularly important because of the market's sensitivity to statistics, which has increased after the Fed at its last meeting had signaled for its propensity for analysis of upcoming statistical data. This took pressure on world stock indexes (including the US and Asian ones), with which USD / JPY is in a high degree of correlation, and the US dollar. All of this did not leave a chance to bulls, and at the moment we have an avalanche activation of stop orders, which are traditionally located slightly below important support levels.

It is recommended to sell with a target of 118.20, where is a 61.8% Fibonacci correction of growth in January-March.

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[Guest Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Goals of Correction are Achieved

A gold price has reached a broken at the beginning of this month support line, but this time from the bottom. Another limiting factor for bulls is a nearby 38.2% Fibo level of a total fall in January-March. Here, prior to weekly trading closing investors were taking profits, and after that quotes moved into an area of a formed with a nearest 38.2% Fibo level support. At the same time a reaction on fundamental statistics on Friday was smoothed, causing only a local increase in volatility, and this when the US GDP data were worse than expected (2.2% vs. 2.4%), and the consumer confidence index was better than expected.

It is expected that buyers' activity will increase on drawing near a level of 1190, which means an actual testing of the abovementioned 38.2% Fibonacci correction. It is recommended to open long positions only after a rebound and getting additional signals from trend indicators.

USD / JPY. Bulls Come to Life

The final US GDP has confirmed a previous estimate (2.2%), disappointing those who hoped for more positive data. This has a short-term impact on the dynamics of the dollar, which fell directly after the publication. But then trading returned into a stable course and in the end of the week, no one dared to demonstrate a proactive stance. There were too many conflicting factors to take risks. While the market pays more attention to some technical aspects, the most influential of which can be called testing and rebound from a 61.8% Fibo level from an upward trend in January-March.

Correction of a first wave of growth that followed a testing of the abovementioned 61.8% Fibonacci level, gives reason to buy on a breakthrough of a top of this magnitude, corresponding to 119.50. Another barrier for growth and at the same a target level may be a lower limit of an overcome few days ago upward channel in a range of 120.10.

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Ended the Week Lower against its Major Competitors

A key event of Friday was a speech of the Fed Chairman Janet Yellen at a conference in San Francisco late in the evening. Vista Brokers analysts say that prior to this speech, market participants were afraid to make any sudden movements and to bet on the rise of the dollar. And these fears were justified: Yellen comments were as restrained as the Fed's accompanying statement after the meeting on March 18th.

The US dollar declines against a basket of major currencies for the second week in a row. Last trading week, the dollar index finished with a reduction, at around 97,374. While on Thursday the US currency had all the chances to increase when the labor market data came out stronger than expected.

So, let us note the main points of the Janet Yellen's speech: it is appropriate to leave monetary policy stimulating for some time, and rates will rise gradually over the next few years; the economy remains relatively weak, and the labor market still has a space to grow; retail sales data were a little disappointed, and the strong dollar has a negative impact on exports. The euro ended the week at $ 1.08910, against the yen the dollar fell to 119,150, and against the franc - to 0.96180.

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Vista Brokers: New Zealand Dollar Falls against the US Dollar

Vista Brokers analysts point out that on Monday NZD / USD continues to decline, while against the Australian dollar the kiwi is recovering. At of this writing, versus the US dollar the New Zealand currency is at around 0.7514 against 0.7579 at the close of trading on Friday. A pair New Zealand dollar / Australian dollar is trading at 0.9756 against 0.9714 on Friday.

Note that for New Zealand and Australian currencies, two important events in the near future are GlobalDairyTrade auction this week, which will indicate a direction of prices for dairy products in the world and a meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia. New Zealand's economy is largely influenced by the price of dairy products, and ANZ Bank predicts a fall in prices in next two months. Sentiment in the dairy market may be pessimistic, as it became known that Fonterra has increased supply volumes.

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Market Pulse 03/30

On Monday, in many European countries will be published data on preliminary consumer price index. In the United States will be published data on personal spending. The day is not too full of important information, although the publication of the consumer price index in Germany may have a significant impact on the market.

7:00 ** Flash Consumer Price Index - March (Spain)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of key indicators, as it often has an influence on monetary policy. In Spain, analysts expect a decrease in inflation in March by 1%.

7:00 ** KOF Economic Barometer - March (Switzerland)

Moderate impact on the market (CHF). The barometer covers a lot of different indicators. In March, the index is expected to decline, which could put pressure on the franc.

8:30 ** Net Lending to Individuals - February (UK)
8:30 ** Mortgage Approvals - February (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). These indicators show a situation in lending, including the one at the real estate market, so that their growth is favorable for the currency. Experts' forecasts for February are positive.

12:00 *** Prelim Consumer Price Index - March (Germany)
12:00 *** Prelim Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised - March (Germany)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect that in March the preliminary consumer price index has risen by 0.4% mom and 0.3% yoy. Expectations regarding the harmonized index are also optimistic. If the data exceeds the forecast, it may cause the upward movement of the euro.

12:30 ** Core PCE Price Index - February (USA)
12:30 ** Personal Spending - February (USA)
12:30 ** Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). It is expected that in February, personal spending has risen, and it is considered one of the signals of economic recovery, which investors may perceive positively. Each signal market participants perceive now as proof of imminent Fed rate hikes.

14:00 ** Pending Home Sales - February (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Change in the volume of pending transactions at the real estate is an early indicator of the US housing market activity. Strong data are beneficial for the dollar.

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