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Guest Vistabrokers

Vistabrokers CIF Ltd is an International Investment and Brokerage Company, registered in the European Union and licensed by the Cyprus Securities & Exchange Commission (190/13). The protection of Clients’ rights and interests are guaranteed by European Legislation, the Investors Compensation Fund and License requirements for Investment and Brokerage services providers.

Vista Brokers is managed by financial market professionals with decades of experience in the financial industry. Through its business activities the Company’s management is guided by principles and approaches that center on aspects such as excellent customer service, innovation, fast and reliable execution.

Other business criteria such as Equilibrium, Reputation, Responsibility, Leadership, Honesty, Partnership, Innovations, and Quality are those Company strives to fully achieve and comply with. The Company aims to be the Broker with a human face; an aspect which we will achieve via our personal and honest relation with our clients.

Our mission is based on Philosophy & Evolution. Our Philosophy is to be the Broker with a human face – people working for people. And our Evolution is to open the doors for Investors to the world’s financial instruments through creating unique approaches & concepts in online trading.

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Plunging OIL sees risk aversion as Investors flock to Yen

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The Yen was buoyant today following a sharp decline in crude oil and stocks which resurfaced concerns regarding the global economy. Additionally growing fears in the Eurozone’s stability and measures to be taken against deflation have seen a more conserved side to investors.

The USDJPY dropped to 118.64 from Monday’s high of 120.68 as it distanced itself from the 7 year high of 121.86 which was reached last month. The decline in the US treasury yields also further added to the buoyant dollar against the Yen as the 10 year yields descended some 14 basis points within 2 sessions. This is expected to be a temporary drop for the US treasuries as the recent healthy outlook for the Dollar should help raise the yields back up.

The recent constant decline of OIL prices coupled with political uncertainty in Greece ahead of a snap election to be held later this month, have forced a more conservative view from investors, as the Wall Street was sent to its biggest 1 day drop in over 3 months yesterday. Constant rumors of the Eurozone losing ots first member – Greece – has further drained confidence in the single currency.

The Euro recently reached a 9 year low at 1.1856 before retracing some of those losses and currently trading around the 1.1895 levels. Pressure is on the ECB to introduce quantitative easing sooner than previously planned and skepticism has hence surrounded the single currency. European shares remained subdued in today’s early session, underpinning safe-haven flows.

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USDCHF remains above parity

From the hourly chart we see a clear continues uptrend for the USDCHF, as it uses the 50 MA as a solid support level in its flow. The pair has been trading above parity since the beginning of this week, reaching a 4.5 year high of 1.0134 in yesterday’s closing session. The pair is currently trading above the 1.0100 level, seen by some as a critical support level, since the beginning of today’s sessions and is consolidating around the 1.0115 levels.

The economic indicators are in a neutral position, having consolidated from overbought areas; investors still expect to see the upward momentum continue for the pair, as more and more optimistic economic data continues to be absorbed by the US economy.

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Scenarios

The current trend is expected to continue, with healthy consolidations, as we have seen so far. The next resistance level for the Bulls is the September 2010 high of 1.0276; which if convincingly broken may leave the pair free to rise some further 350+ pips to the August 2010 high of 1.0624.

Alternately if we see a convincing push from the Bears to not only consolidate but convincingly sustain lower levels for the pair, we may see a reversal inn trend. The current support levels, stand at 1.0100, which if broken will leave the way for a drop towards the 50 MA, which has not been broken this year, and currently sits at 1.0078.

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Dollar gains across board, Euro at fresh 9 year low

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The Euro continued its decline today, falling to a new 9 year low of 1.1817 against the Dollar as fears for the Eurozone economy were kindled by data which showed the euro zone prices declining for the first time since 2009. The Eurozone consumer prices dropped lowed than expected to 0.2% per annum in December, further to the much cheaper energy we have recently seen. The recent pile on of bad news must surely put enormous pressure on the European Central Bank to take immediate measures to revive the EU economy.

Eurozone prices, excluding seasonal energy and unprocessed food, remained steady at 0.7% in December, while prices with the exclusion of Alcohol and tobacco rose to 0.8%. The initial news saw some support of the Euro as it re-cooped some losses, however this was short lived and saw the EURUSD drop to a new 9 year low. In addition, the positive news from Germany of a reduced unemployment change of -27K, some 11K less than the expected value of -16K, did not manage to suede investors in purchasing the Euro.

The Greenback rose to a 9 year high against a basket of currencies, reaching a level of 92.02. FOMC minutes, due to be released at 19:00 GMT, should see some choppy/ volatile movement in the USD. The non-farm payrolls are scheduled for later in the week, which will be very crucial this month in giving a further push or pull to the Dollar against a basket of currencies and very importantly against the Euro.

Commodities continued their decline, with Brent reaching below the crucial $50 level, marking a 5.5 year low. The much reliant Canadian Dollar dropped also to a 52.5 year low to 1.1870 against the Dollar while the Norway crown headed towards a 12.5 year low

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USDJPY looks to consolidate in short term

Looking at the 1 Hour chart of the USDJPY pair we see that the short to midterm trend for the USDJPY is in a range, if not slightly bearish. The pair has been trading steady around the 119.80 levels following a sharp rise of over 500 pips since the 16th of December, which saw the pair find strong resistance around the 120.80 levels.

The New Year has seen the pair drop from the 120.80’s to 118.13, whilst the last few days have seen it recoup some of those losses as it now trades at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level – a point which has still to be convincingly broken by the Bulls.

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Scenarios

In the short term we may see a consolidation in the USDJPY, having reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with support at S1, which marks the 50 MA. Additionally indicators show that currently we are in/ heading towards an overbought level, as such a correction is expected. Should S1 be convincingly broker, we expect strong support at S2 – a level which is quite critical in not allowing the pair to freefall and wipe out the momentum of the Bulls.

Alternately we may see the current short range uptrend continue, in which case we expect the Bulls to meet strong resistance at the R1 level which has been tested twice so far, at 120.72

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Euro continues to reach fresh 9 year lows

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The Euro extended losses once again today, failing to find any significant support levels since the beginning of the year. This marks 6 days of straight losses for the single currency against the Dollar. In just over half a year, the Euro has managed to drop some 19 cents – over 13.5% of its June high of 1.3699. Investors are anticipating that the ECB will soon step in and adopt its quantitative easing stimulus in order to attempt to keep the Euro away from its current deflationary status. The pair currently trades at 1.1761 against the Dollar.

The recent decline of German industrial orders for November saw further doubt cast on the Euro, pilling on top of already existing concern that a Greek general election on January 25th may lead to turmoil between Europe and Greece over the existing austerity measures, which Greece had previously agreed to.

Currently the Euro is anticipated to continue its decline, as we come up to the ECB meeting on the 22/01 and expect more short positions to continue driving down the EURUSD pair. The next strong support level for the pair is seen at 1.1638 – the November 2005 low.

The Federal Reserve, in comparison, is expected to raise its interest rates as early as Q1 in 2015, which has further pushed the USD to gain against the Euro as the USA economy has recently shown signs of a healthy outlook. The Dollar climbed above 119.75 Yen as it moved away from a 3 week trough around 118.40, while the Dollar index remained near the 9 year high.

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Gold Daily Chart

Gold has been trading towards a falling wedge formation on the daily chart since mid-November as per the diagram below. The chart shows a struggle between the Bulls and Bears as the Bulls have managed to push the price up and give an intraday up trend to Gold since November, however the prevailing longer term trend is down as we can clearly see the push the Bears have enforced since July, dropping the price an unprecedented $210+ since.

Investors are waiting to see results from today’s NFP report, as volumes drop in anticipation of this. The figure is expected to show around 241K extra jobs created in the month of December for the USA – a forecast which if spot on would likely see limited deviation, in the longer term, of the Gold and we should expect the Gold to continue towards the yellow highlighted triangle below before a break out is seen.

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Scenarios:

On the daily chart we favor the longer term trend, which is a hawkish view as seen by the downward wedge. Significant support lines are seen at 1166.9 and 1143.6, the two main points which align the lower part of the wedge. We also expect some support to be seen at the 50 MA, which currently sits at 1195.30.

Alternately, a upward break of the wedge could see the price head towards 1239.24, before any major resistance, with significantly more meaningful resistance at 1255.3 – the point at which the wedge began forming, from back in October of 2014.

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Euro near 9 year low on Greek woes

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The Euro remained near the 9 year low today as expectations of a European Central Bank Intervention with a quantitative easing stimulus grew. Investors are a little reserved for now, siting US jobs and unemployment data which is scheduled to be released later in the day.

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi yesterday commented that the bank’s governing council is ready to implement all conventional and unconventional measures that may be needed to lift up the recent stagnation in inflation and sustain the interest rate from going into deflation. This has risen expectations that there most almost certainly be some intervention measures introduced further to the bank’s meeting on January 22nd.

The EURUSD has traded most of today rather steadily, when comparing to past days, and is oscillating between the $1.1815 and $1.1770 levels. The Euro had as recent as yesterday reached a fresh all-time low of 1.1752, from which it has retraced. The single currency was gloomed further to figures released which showed the Eurozone’s 2 biggest economies (France and Germany) had a pessimistic figure on Industrial outlook as well as Germany’s export figures experiencing a sharp drop.

Another suppressing issue for the single currency is the Greek general elections, which will take place further to the countries prime minister – Mr. Samaras – failing to secure enough votes for his candidate, which will take place on January 25th. The elections are expected to lead to a standoff between Greece and Athens with respect to the Austerity measures which Greece had agreed to in order to receive the much needed emergency bailout.

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EUR/USD – Bearish Push!

Daily Trading

The EUR/USD, as we expected from our last analysis on the 5th of January remained under pressure and broke below the 1.1801 which was the 2006 low, finding finally resistance at 1.1754. At that level we saw a small reaction of the Bulls but we don’t know for how long as the Bearish trend still seems to be very strong and hard for the Bulls to reverse it. Price now is trading 100 pips above the bottom and indicators already are reaching the overbought areas.

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Scenarios

Bears are leading the last months, a possible break below the S1 will most probably guide the price to lower levels close to 1.1640 which is the next important support level. If we notice a break above the R1 then we can only start thinking that Bulls wake up and start pushing but it will only be an alert and not a signal. They need to much effort to reverse the existing trend.

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Vista Brokers: Data on the US labor market were mixed

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On Friday, the market was expected the data on unemployment rate and non-farm employment change in the US.

Statistics surpassed analysts' forecasts: nonfarm payrolls increased by 252,000 in December, against a forecast of 241 000. Thus, the indicator grows the 11th consecutive month, which is the longest period of growth since 1994. Data for October and November were also revised to increase. The unemployment rate fell in December by 0.2% to 5.6%, while the experts expected a decline to only 5.7%.

Vista Brokers analysts note that while hiring in the US is growing steadily, the average hourly wage does not support this trend. Compared to the previous month in December indicator decreased by 0.2%. Nevertheless, the positive data on unemployment and non-farm payrolls forced market participants to talk about raising interest rates o the Federal Reserve.

Large banks surveyed by Reuters, believes that the rate will begin to rise in June, but the financial markets are not so sure in it. FOMC member Dennis Lockhart said that despite the strong statistics on employment, the regulator needs to exercise caution before raising rates. He believes that this question must be lifted no earlier than mid-year.

Against this background, on Friday, the US dollar fell against a basket of currencies, and US stock indexes fell nearly 1% after a two-day rally.

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Market Pulse 12.01

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On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty. There will be no important data, so it's likely the market will continue to take a lead from the information received on Friday. Investors' attention may be attracted with the FOMC member Dennis Lockhart speech.

14:45 ** ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). ECB announces its weekly balance sheet, from which investors and market observers conclude on the extent of securities purchases the European Central Bank makes on its balance sheet. Low values can provide support, while the expansion of purchases is a signal of greater activity of the ECB, which reduces the rate and pressures on the euro.

15:00 ** Labor Market Conditions Index - December (US)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The indicator is calculated on the basis of 19 other market indicators. As a rule, it does not have a profound effect on the market, but can confirm earlier trends.

17:40 ** FOMC Member Dennis Lockhart Speaks - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Dennis Lockhart is the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and a voting member of the FOMC, that is, its opinion affects the monetary policy committee. Therefore, the remarks in his speech can cause volatility in the markets.

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USD remains strong against basket of currencies

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The Dollar moved higher today as it recouped gains lost further to the dip incurred following the surprising results from US wages last Friday. Demand has been on a continuous rise for the Dollar – albeit today we saw some thinner volumes of trading due to the holiday in Japan. The Greenback was up 0.2% against the Euro and 0.25% up against a basket of Major currencies. The EURUSD has thus far taken a dip of some 50+ pips from today’s opening session to trade around the 1.1791 mark as of late, as it edges closer to the recently established 9 year low of 1.1752.

Against the Yen the Dollar dipped further in today’s opening session trading around the 118.20’s but has since in European session recovered some losses and has risen some 100 pips to trade at 119.20. Today’s holiday in Japan has seen thinner volumes in early Asian session.

In Europe, Italy’s central bank chief warned on Sunday that risk of spiraling deflation in the Euro zone should not go unaccounted for. The EU economy is currently in a very fragile condition with Greece expected to put in place a member of the Siriza party as the country’s next president, which would most likely oppose the current austerity measures that are put in place in the debt ridden country.

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Vista Brokers: Oil continues to fall in price

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On Monday, oil prices renewed their declines, falling below $ 49 a barrel. Thus, the decline continues for seven straight weeks, and both Brent and WTI are now around their lowest since April 2009: 48.82 and 47.24 dollars per barrel, respectively.

Vista Brokers analysts note that Goldman Sachs experts have lowered their quarterly and annual forecasts on the oil market. The three-month forecast for Brent was reduced from 80 to 42 dollars per barrel, and for WTI - from 70 to 41 dollars per barrel. The forecast for 2015 also decreased to 50.40 and 47.15 dollars per barrel, respectively.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the world, continues to refuse demands of OPEC to cut production, to keep the price drop.

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GBPUSD rebounds on low CPI expectations

The GBPUSD pair has changed trend, from the downward run we saw at the beginning of the new year which saw the pair lose over 500 pips in the space of a week, to a newly upward channel trend as we can see from the 1 hour graph below.

The 50 MA, which was previously seen as acting as a ceiling for the pair, has reversed and acts now as a strong support for the cable. The current price of the cable against the dollar sits at 1.5157, just off from the 50 MA as a recent drop in the cable followed on from an expected slowed UK consumer price inflation down to 0.7% in December. This follows on from a 12 year low of 1% which was measured in November.

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Scenarios

The current intraday trend is an upward channel, with price of the GBPUSD expected to find strong support at S1 and climb back up to test this week’s high of R1. A break of which could lead the price to rise and test R2.

Alternately, if the 50 MA proves to be broken by the bears and cannot be sustained as a support, we expect to see the price drop lower and head towards S2 – a break of which will see a reversal of trend.

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Vista Brokers: on Monday Dollar was Traded under Pressure

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The US dollar declined against the euro and the yen amid US stock market falling. Also traders continued to follow the mixed data on the US labor market, published on Friday.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the average hourly wage decreasing by 0.2% in the United States led investors to think about if the Fed would raise rates when the labor market still has some problems.

Another important reference point for the regulator is the inflation, and the situation with this indicator is not too optimistic. According to the forecasts the consumer price index in the US, which will be released this Friday, can show decline by 0.3% in December.

Seizing the moment of weakness of the dollar, the euro rebounded slightly and walked away from the 9-month low of $ 1.1753.

The analysts remind that this week the market will be waiting for the decision of the European Court of OMT program - scheme of bond purchases, and it may have a strong influence on the ECB actions. If the court makes a negative decision, the volume of quantitative easing may be limited in the future. And considering that the stimulation is already put in the price of the euro, the market reaction may be strong.

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Market Pulse 13.01

Tuesday's economic calendar will not be too crowded. A large portion of statistics will be released in the UK, so volatility of the British pound trading can increase.

9:30 *** Consumer Price Index — December (UK)

9:30 ** Core CPI — December (UK)

9:30 ** Retail Price Index — December (UK)

9:30 ** Producer Price Index Input — December (UK)

9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output — December (UK)

9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output CoreDecember (UK)

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Inflation is one of the key indicators for financial regulators. In December a slight increase is expected in consumer prices, after the declining in the previous month by 0.3%. In general, the data for all indices are expected to be moderately positive.

15:00 ** JOLTs Job Openings — November (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Measures the level of vacancies in the private sector at the end of the month (in thousands). The growth reflects the improvement in the labor market of the country, showing a high demand for workers.

18:01 ** 10-y Bond Auction — January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). US Treasury allocates its debt obligations. 10-year bonds are the reference in terms of reflecting the demand in the markets and in the form of an indicative yield.

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Vista Brokers: Yen is Supported by Uncertainty in the Market

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On Tuesday, the Japanese currency hit a one-month high against the dollar, supported with the growth of safe assets amid the falling of the oil prices. Investors go into "safe havens" due to the fear that the decline in oil prices will lead to an even greater slowdown in economic growth and inflation in the world economy.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that for the Japan's economic the oil price declining can be a positive, as well as for the other major importers.

Today, managing director of currency research at Nomura Holdings Inc. Jens Nordvig said that the fall of oil by 45% would reduce Japan's trade deficit by $ 500 million. In November, Japan's trade deficit amounted to $ 7.6 billion.

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USDCHF in range on intraday

Today’s sessions saw the Dollar dropped against the Swiss Franc as the USDCHF pair dipped under the 1.0200 level to session lows of 1.0180, following resistance met at R1 – 1.0216 – a level which has changed the trend for the Swiss franc into a range, with a support at 1.0116 as shows below.

The short term intraday indicators show the pair to be at a neutral level with the exception of the Stochastic, which currently shows the currency is currently in an oversold position.

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Scenarios:

The short term trend is in a range, with currently the lower part of the range being favored as the next test level, with 1.0169 – the 50MA - as the support. A convincing break of which may see the price head to 1.0116 which is the current support line and critical point for the current intraday range.

Alternately, we may see the pair head back-up and retest the R1 level which has already been unsuccessfully tested twice. A convincing break of this may see a continuation of the longer term up trend we have experienced in recent weeks.

Market Pulse 14.01

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On Wednesday, market participants' views will be glued to the euro zone, where during the day will be a lot of important events. In particular, the European Court of Justice ruling for ESM and fiscal compact will be published. Also on this day the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi, BOE Governor Mark Carney and BOE Deputy Governor for financial stability Jon Cunliffe will speak. In addition, the following information will be released.

10:00 ** Industrial Production - November (Euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Often, the production is a small contribution to GDP, but it allows to predict the dynamics of interest rates. In November, zero growth is expected on a monthly basis and a decrease year on year.

13:30 *** Retail Sales - December (UK)
13:30 *** Core Retail Sales - December (UK)
13:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - December (UK)


Strong impact on the market (GPB). In December, analysts expect growth in all indicators, but growth is projected to be less than in the previous month.

13:30 ** Import Prices - December (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in prices of imported goods for the month. May be an early warning sign of inflationary trends change, or their confirmation. In December, the indicator is expected to decline.

19:00 ** Beige Book - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Review of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks of the United States about the local economy. Considering the market's expectations about the future monetary policy of the Fed, the publication may cause an interest among traders.

Vista Brokers: Dollar Rose against Currency Basket

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On Tuesday, the US dollar rose against its major competitors. Market participants finished to take a lead from the Friday ambiguous data on US labor market and shifted their attention to the fact that the US economy is in clearly better situation than another world major economies. In this regard, investors expect that this year the Fed will raise interest rates.

The dollar has risen against a currency basket in seven of the last eight trading sessions and has a good chance to finish a fourth straight week with the growth. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the positive investor tone against the dollar is limited by the reduction in oil prices, which in June, 2014 hav lost more than 50% of the value. Today, oil futures were traded at six-year lows, and fears of further decline still reserved.

However, it seems that the dollar at the moment remains a better investment than most other major currencies. On Tuesday, the euro was traded at 9-month lows against the dollar. The additional pressure on the single currency had an expectation of further economy stimulation steps by the ECB.

Also Deutsche Bundesbank lowered its forecasts for the euro. Now the regulator expects the single currency to reduce to $ 1.10, $ 1.00 and $ 0.90 by the end of 2015, 2016 and 2017, respectively.

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Vista Brokers: Investors Prefer Safe Assets

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On Wednesday, the dollar came under pressure after the disappointing data on the volume of retail trade in the US. In December, the indicator fell by 0.9% including auto and 1% excluding auto. The index excluding auto and gas decreased by 0.3%.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that for retail trade it is the worst performance in the last 11 months, and it has reminded investors about their fears over global economic growth and inflation. The market expects that in June of this year, the Fed will raise interest rates, but the poor statistics can delay the process.

After the data on retail sales release the dollar fell to 116.07 yen, having lost 1.6%, but then oil suddenly rose in price in anticipation of US Department of Energy data on oil reserves. It stabilized the market and the dollar recovered to 117.35 yen. The euro rose by 0.1% to $ 1.1783 after trading near $ 1.1847 during the session.

On Wednesday, the copper price fell to a more than five-year low, and it sent concerned investors to safer assets such as US Treasuries and Japanese currency.

Market Pulse 15.01

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On Thursday, the market will be interested in data on GDP changes in Germany over the past year, as well as an important US statistics. Now investors are closely watching the US data, as they help to judge about the future behavior of the Fed with respect to monetary policy.

9:00 *** Real GDP Growth - 2014 (Germany)
9:00 *** Public Finances Balance-GDP Ratio - 2014 (Germany)


Strong impact on the market (EUR). Annual GDP is calculated based on preliminary data and is published before the data for the last quarter, so however, market participants keep a close watch in the time of publication. Unexpectedly strong data can support the euro, while the weak may cause currency sales and the risky assets refusal.

10:00 ** Trade Balance - November (Euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between the value of exported and imported goods for the month. Strong data can be positive for the euro.

13:30 *** Producer Price Index - December (USA)
13:30 ** Core PPI - December (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Change in the producer price index may be an early warning sign of inflationary trends change, or their confirmation. In general, the PPI growth contributes to the strengthening of the currency.

13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - January (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)


Strong impact on the market (USD). This weekly indicator is becoming increasingly important due to the fact that the labor market is one of the main landmarks for the Fed. According to forecasts, during the reporting week the index rose more than a week earlier.

15:00 *** Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). Philadelphia Fed index is based on manufacturing companies survey. Values greater than zero reflect an improvement in business conditions, less than zero - deterioration.

Vista Brokers: Australian Dollar Rose only to Fall even Further

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On Thursday morning, the currency get the stimulus to growth after the publication of the unemployment rate and the employment change in Australia for December. So, for the first winter month, unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 6.1%, while analysts expect its growth to 6.3%. The number of employees has grown much stronger than expected by 37.4K vs. forecast 5.3K.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the Australian dollar rally was short enough. The labor market data did not help the Australian dollar to recover from fears associated with the commodity market fall, which put a pressure on it. This week not only oil updated fresh lows, but also copper, on which the Australian economy depends on, has fallen dramatically in price.

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Vista Brokers: National Bank of Switzerland Refused the 1.20 Franc per Euro Cap

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On Thursday, the National Bank of Switzerland shocked the market, refusing the hard franc per euro cap at a level of 1.2, which was holden since 2011. Also the interest rate was reduced to -0.75%.

Vista Brokers analysts note that immediately after the announcement of the Bank of Switzerland franc rose by more than 30% against the dollar and the euro. Then, the rate stabilized at around +14%.

In the head of the Swiss regulator Thomas Jordan's statement it is said that the central bank has made such an unexpected decision, seeking to comply with changes in the monetary policy of the largest central banks: the Federal Reserve and the ECB. Analysts remind that the ECB may announce the launch of the quantitative easing program and the expansion of its balance sheet by 1 trillion euros during the next meeting on 22 January. As for the Fed, the US regulator plans to tighten monetary policy. Perhaps the Fed will tighten interest rates this summer.

Among the Thursday statistics may be noted the weak labor market data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in the US. For the latest reporting week the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 316K instead of expected 299K. Continuing claims also rose more than analysts expected. As for the Philadelphia Fed index, it fell in January to 6.3 points versus revised 24.3 in December and expected 20.3.

Market Pulse 16.01

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On Friday, the market will wait for data on сonsumer price index in the euro area and in the United States, as well as for the Prelim University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment in the USA.

10:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - December (Euro zone)
10:00 ** Final Consumer Price Index - Core - December (Euro zone)


Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators, because the monetary policy usually depends on it. In December, experts expect a decrease of the index by 0.2%.

13:30 *** Consumer Price Index - December (US)
13:30 *** Core CPI - December (US)
13:30 ** Consumer Price Index - December (US)
13:30 ** Consumer Price Index Core Index - December (US)


Strong impact on the market (USD). In December, analysts expect a decrease of the consumer price index in the US by 0.3%. The index excluding prices for food and energy, according to the forecast, has increased by 0.1%. Exceeding the forecasts will be favorable for the dollar.

14:15 ** Capacity Utilization Rate - December (US)
14:15 ** Industrial Production - December (US)


Moderate impact on the market (USD). The level of capacity utilization allows us to estimate how much free capacity the economy has, or whether it is "overheated". Excess of 80% is considered to be dangerous for the development of inflationary pressures, ie the growth of the indicator supports the currency.

14:55 *** Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - January (USA)

Strong impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan. Allows us to estimate the confidence of consumers in the current and future state of the economy. Is a very important leading indicator of future costs. Exceeding the prognosis is favorable for the currency.

Vista Brokers: IEA Comments Supported Oil

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Futures for Brent crude oil on Friday rose above $49 per barrel after the International Energy Agency had mentioned that the trend may still turn. However, analysts agree that in the near future, such a reversal is hardly possible, because the world production continues to exceed demand. Also concerns about the economic growth slowing remain.

Vista Brokers analysts reminde that oil prices have dropped by more than half since last June. Although the IEA experts believe that the trend reversal is possible in the current year, but it is nobody knows how much more the price can drop until it begins to rise. Nevertheless, Brent, which was traded on Thursday at $ 48 per barrel, was supported by comments of the International Energy Agency.

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Vista Brokers: USA Consumer Sentiment at Highest in 11 Years

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On Friday, the dollar received significant support after the publication of data on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan in the United States. For the first time since November 2003 the single currency fell below $ 1.15. During the trading day it has reached $ 1.146.

In January, the prelim UoM consumer sentiment index rose to 98.2 - the highest level since January 2004. In December, the indicator stood at 93.6, and analysts expected that it would grow only to 94.1. After the publication of these data, the dollar has stopped a five-day drop against the Japanese yen. The dollar index DXY rose on Friday from 92.16 to 92.75.

Vista Brokers analysts believe that the employment increase and the look down gasoline helped Americans to feel more positive on the prospects for economic growth.

Experts also point out that the pressure on the euro last week was provided by the Swiss National Bank's decision to scrap the franc’s cap. The decision came as a surprise to the markets, and the reaction to it was the high volatility and active movements of currency pairs, in which there is a franc. The JPMorgan Chase & Co's index, which shows the level of volatility in the currency markets, rose to 11.68 - a maximum from June 2013.

The Swiss National Bank kept the rate of EUR/CHF at around 1.20 since 2011. Also, the regulator announced the reduction of the main interest rate.

The new week in the financial markets will be marked by the expectation of the European Central Bank meeting on January 22. Investors expect that Mario Draghi will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program.

Market Pulse 19.01

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Monday's economic calendar is almost empty. There will be no important information that could affect the markets.

11:00 ** Bundesbank Monthly Report - January (Germany)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). In the monthly report, the Bundesbank publishes its global vision, and describes how the situation has changed in the intervening period. Publication rarely has a significant impact on the markets.

13:30 ** Foreign Securities Purchases - November (Canada)

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). Net purchases of Canadian securities by foreign investors. The growth of the surplus reflects the flow of money into the country from abroad, which is beneficial to the Canadian dollar.

14:45 **ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase - January (Euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). ECB announces its weekly balance sheet, from which investors and market observers conclude on the extent of the European Central Bank purchases securities on its balance sheet.

Vista Brokers: Euro Flirts with 11-year Lows

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On Monday, the euro is flirting with 11-year lows. Investors expect that the European Central Bank will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program this week.

Vista Brokers analysts note that the single currency last traded at $ 1.1557, near the level of $ 1.14595 reached on Friday. Against the Japanese yen, the euro is near a 3-month low, at around 135.17. Against the Canadian dollar the currency is trading at 16-month low of C$ 1.3749, reached on Friday.

Most experts believe that on the next meeting on January 22 the ECB will announce new steps of the economy stimulation. The question is only how the head of the regulator Mario Draghi will describe the action plan of the ECB, and what comments he will give on this occasion.

Analysts expect the volatility in the markets at the end of the week will be high. Not only because of the ECB meeting, but also due to the upcoming elections in Greece. According to preliminary surveys of the electorate, the population prefers the radical left political forces, and if they come to power, the membership of Greece in the euro area will be open to question.

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Vista Brokers: QE Expectations Support European Markets

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EUR/USD started Monday trades near 11-year lows. Most experts believe that on the next meeting on 22 January the ECB will announce new steps of the economy stimulation, and until Thursday, these expectations will influence on the market.

The euro decline was short-lived - the pair soon began to grow showing the biggest jump since December 16 to $ 1.1625. Late last week, the single currency has reached its lowest level since November 2003, trading against the dollar at $ 1.1460. However, a new week has given the euro a chance to reassert oneself.

The single currency also rose against the yen, versus which last week it was trading at the lowest level since October 16 - 134.71. Having lost 17% last week against the Swiss franc, the euro rebounded on Monday to around 1.0193.

Vista Brokers analysts point out that the belief that the ECB President Mario Draghi will announce the launch of quantitative easing (QE) this Thursday, is very high. This is confirmed by the Bloomberg survey, according to which 93% of respondents believe that the events will move in this way. Experts believe that Draghi will announce will announce a 550 billion-euro bond-purchase.

On these expectations European stock markets on Monday rose to a 7-year high. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose by 0.22% to 354.54, the highest closing level since January 2008.

Market Pulse 20.01

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On Tuesday the most interesting publications are ZEW indices, which will show the sentiment about the economy in Germany and in the euro zone. Canada will publish the data on changes in the volume of industrial supplies, which may have an impact on the Canadian dollar.

10:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - January (Germany)
10:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - January (Germany)
10:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - January (
euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). ZEW indices are closely monitored by markets, providing a noticeable influence on them immediately after publication. Analysts give optimistic forecasts in all three indices. If the evidence does not justify these expectations, the euro could come under pressure.

13:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - November (Canada)

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Manufacturing Sales can serve as an early indicator of the acceleration or deceleration of economic activity. The growth is favorable for the Canadian dollar.

13:45 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - January (UK)

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). John Kanlif holds the post of Deputy Governor of the Bank of England's financial stability. He is a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, so his comments are relevant to the market.

15:00 ** FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Jerome Powell is actively involved in the Fed monetary policy creating. His comments may have an impact on the market as they show the attitude of FOMC members.

15:00 ** NAHB Housing Market Index - January (USA)

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The indicator is based on a survey of 900 developers in respect of current and future sales of private homes. Rarely has an impact on the market.

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Vista Brokers: On Tuesday, the dollar rose against the Japanese yen

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On Tuesday, the dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen amid the data showed the Chinese economic growth slowing. Vista Brokers analysts say that the speculation on the Chinese economy "drawdown" was in the market long time ago. And now investors are wondering whether the Bank of Japan will take some measures to limit the demand for yen.

The additional stimulus to growth the dollar received from the updated forecast of the International Monetary Fund. The IMF lowered its growth forecasts for almost all major economies, but not for the USA. The organization's experts expect that global growth in 2015-2016 will be 3.5% and 3.7% (-0.3% compared with the previous forecast). At the same time, the growth forecasts for the US economy have been increased to 3.6% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016. The main reasons for the forecasts cutting the IMF calls reassess the prospects of economy of China, the euro zone, Russia and Japan, as well as the weakening of the petroleum exporting countries in response to falling prices for oil.

Amid the dollar rose against the yen by 0.9% at 118,615 yen after touching an earlier peak of 118.775.

Analysts note that the data on China's GDP changes in 2014 turned out to be the weakest for the last 24 years, although it is slightly stronger than profile experts expected. Over the past year, the Chinese economy grew by 7.4%, against 7.5% projected by the government and market expectations of 7.3%.

The euro against the yen rose by 0.46% to 137,190.

Vista Brokers: Bank of Japan did not Extend Stimulus Plan

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On Monday morning, the yen strengthened against the dollar after the Bank of Japan did not announce additional measures to stimulate the economy. The Japanese currency has strengthened against the dollar by 1% to 117.66. EUR/JPY rose by 0.7% to 136.31 yen per euro.

Vista Brokers analysts note that Asian stock markets also received support. MSCI index (the broadest stock index for the Asia-Pacific region outside of Japan) grew by 1.1% and reached its highest level in six weeks. Against this background Australian and New Zealand currencies increased, inspired by the demand for high-risk assets. The Australian dollar rose by 0.7% to 82.26, and New Zealand kiwi - by 0.4% to 76.67.

According to experts, the decision of the Bank of Japan to retain the stimulus plan was expected, although some market participants put their a stake on belief that Haruhiko Kuroda today announces some new measures. In the new fiscal year which will start in April, the prospects for achieving the target level of inflation in Japan remain very vague. Therefore, some market participants expect new steps of stimulation from the Bank of Japan. The last time the regulator took the decision to expand the asset purchase program to 80 trillion yen in October 2014.

Euro against the dollar rose on Wednesday. The market is in anticipation of tomorrow's ECB meeting, which will determine the monetary control strategy for the near future and will have an impact on the euro.
Analysts remind that on Thursday, the European Central Bank may announce the launch of the quantitative easing program, involves 550 billion-euro ($637 billion) bond-purchase. That is according to 93 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

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Gold continues to go up

GOLD

Currently quotes remain in the uptrend, as evidenced by location of prices above lines forming our trend indicator Alligator. According to the system rules, to enter the market investor should wait for a break of one of the actual at that moment fractals. Besides, the ideal time for getting of such a signal will be the absence of directed dynamics of the instrument, that is almost always accompanied by interlacing of Alligator lines, as well as proximity of our auxiliary indicators AO and AC to zero. We continue to keep an eye on the market.

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Volatility in yes rises

USD/JPY

Last weeks trades showe maximum volatility levels over the recent years, which certainly should be taken into consideration from the standpoint of methods for managing capital. Thus, the recent fluctuations in USD/JPY has led to the formation of large-scale movements, thereby coming to the price fractals are already located in two hundred points from each other. Thus, a pending «buy stop» order must be placed on the level of extremum fractal upwards (118.86), while the break-down order must match the value of 116.90. It is expected that with the lack of strong fluctuations new significant levels defined by Williams fractals will form closer to the current price, and we need to move orders in accordance with their price value. Note that according to the system, pending orders must be placed lower by 1 point for sale, and higher by 1 point for purchase.

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Euro falls farther

EUR/USD

At the moment, relevant pending orders to buy (1.1646) and to sale (1.1538) are actual. It is worth noting that the fractal-up corresponding to an entrance order to the long position is below the Alligator red line. At the same time it is important that the price is above the line at the time of the given level passage. Thus, we are waiting for a breakthrough of any named order to enter the market and then to consider any and all signals to "refill" the existing position that will maximize profits.

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Quiet before the storm

GBP/USD

Perhaps the most favorable for the potential deal is a situation for the "cable". Thus, the achievement of the last year and a half minimum price levels led to the formation of lateral trend that offers the potential to carry out a successful transaction. So, the Alligator lines are intertwined, indicator AO and AC values are close to zero. Pending orders at the moment are located at 1.5199 (buy) and 1.5054 (sell). We are waiting for a breakthrough of one of them or the formation of a new, more contemporary fractal.

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EUR / USD. Waiting for Miracle

We can say that the current changes in the EUR / USD market reflect the solemnity of the moment - the market is frozen, awaiting. So, today the results of the ECB meeting will definitely "sadden" someone. Accordingly, someone it will vice versa make happy, and it will depend on the chosen direction, (guessed / not guessed), nerves and strategy. In such days, it is the right thing not to do anything until the news is coming, and then to be ready to enter the next breakthrough levels of support / resistance. Quotes are under the long-term downtrend near the channel line. As for the more recent movements, the value is now testing the medium-term trend line.

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So, after the release of today's data, we recommend to put opening stop-orders to break values of 1.1680 up and 1.1458 down. The goal, in the case of the resistance line breakthrough is the correctional Fibo level of 38.2% (1.1880). If prices fall below the 11-year minimum at 1.1458 setting reduction targets will be technically baseless. Here it will be best to work on the scenario.

USD / JPY. Japanese Minister's Arrows Hit Targets

The long-term trend in the pair remains relevant. We note that back in 2012 Shinzo Abe took the helm of the Japanese economy once again and announced upcoming changes to combat the main problem of the Japanese economy – deflation. Then he put his man in charge of the Bank of Japan to successfully implement these plans. Thus, the regulator has started an ambitious program of assets purchase, flooding the economy with money. Since then, the Japanese currency has lost about 50% of its value, causing trading partners' murmurs and unofficial charges of waging foreign wars. Anyway, the long-term trend remains relevant.

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Last upward impulse of October-November 2014 at the moment is corrected by the price of 38.2%. The price came up to this level twice and consecutively bounced off him. Thus, the risks currently biased towards the possible growth of the pair, but for the purchase we should wait for more clear upward impulse forming, as well as for some evidence from trend indicators. The graph shows two moving averages 3 with a shift 3 and 25 with a shift 5.

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Vista Brokers: Stock Markets are Rising in ECB Meeting Expectations

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On Thursday morning, the euro was trading near 11-year low against the dollar. Today is the day when the ECB should announce the launch of the quantitative easing program, and the market remains highly volatile. Amid named expectations American, Asian and European stock markets are rising.

While trading in London euro against the dollar has weakened by 0.2%, reaching $ 1.1588. Vista Brokers analysts point out that for the pair it is a minimum since November 2003, after the ECB was said to propose 50 billion euros of asset purchases. Now we are talking about much larger amounts - 550, or even 600 billion euros. That is the amount that market participants want to hear today from Mario Draghi.

Yields on 10-year bonds in Japan rose by 8 points, up to a maximum of 2013. Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 rose by 0.3%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index – by 0.2%. Hang Seng Index gained 0.6%.

Although more than 90% of the experts participating in the Bloomberg survey believe in such a decision of the European Central Bank, it is always the possibility that the actions of the regulator will go counter to the market expectations. If the bank announces its plan to stimulate the economy today, large-scale asset purchases will begin on the 1st of March.

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Market Pulse 22.01

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The long-awaited day of the ECB meeting came, and all investors' attention will be riveted to this event. It is expected during the traditional ECB Press Conference Mario Draghi will announce the launch of the quantitative easing program.

8:00 ** Unemployment rate - Q4 (Spain)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The Spanish indicator usually has a low impact, as the country is relatively small to affect the performance of the entire euro zone.

9:00 ** MPC Member David Miles Speaks - January (UK)
9:25 ** BOE Executive Director Paul Fisher Speaks - January (UK)


Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Comments of David Miles and Paul Fischer about the prospects for credit, inflation and the economy as a whole, can have an impact on the pound.

12:45 *** ECB Interest Rate Decision - January (euro zone)
12:45 ** Deposit Facility Rate - January (euro zone)
12:45 ** Marginal
Lending Facility - January (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Changes in the rates are extremely important, and the quotes usually take a lead from it in advance. At this meeting, the ECB will unlikely make changes in rates.

13:30 *** ECB Press Conference - January (euro zone)

Strong impact on the market (EUR). It is expected that Mario Draghi will announce an extensive quantitative easing program on this press conference. Although the market was taking a lead from this decision for about a week, the ECB's decision both appropriate and not appropriate to the forecast, may have a strong influence on the euro.

13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - January (USA)
13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)


Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts expect positive data for the reporting week, although on news from the ECB, investors can leave these statistics without attention.

15:00 ** Flash Consumer Confidence - January (euro zone)

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The consumer confidence index is based on a survey of households on the level of confidence in the current state of the economy and its development in the future. Analysts expect the decline of the indicator in January.

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