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Market Analysis And News by Hotforex.com


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Date : 17th December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 17 ‚Äď USD slips, Gold pops, BOJ no change.

 

daily-market-update.png

 

  • USD (USDIndex¬†95.80) continues to cool post FED.¬†Stocks¬†sank lead by Tech (Nasdaq -2.47%, wiping out Wednesdays gains) &¬†Yields¬†fell. A weak set of PMI‚Äôs across the globe was offset by good US Claims numbers and hot housing data. Sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit.¬†GOLD¬†rallied significantly. The¬†BOE surprise¬†lifted GBP ‚Äď but Johnson lost the bi-election (a seat the party have held for 200-yrs).¬†BOJ¬†‚ÄstNo changes¬†maintains longer JGB outlook at 0% & Inflation target @ 2%.
  • US Yields¬†10yr traded down significantly to¬†1.411%
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†-41 (-0.87%) unable to hold the key 4700 ‚Äď at¬†4668¬†‚ÄstUSA500.F¬†trades at¬†4660.¬†Big losers included¬†#TSLA¬†-5.03%,¬†APPL¬†-3.93%¬†Abode¬†-10.19%. gainers were¬†Verizon¬†+4.35%,¬†PFE¬†+4.17% & banks lead by¬†WFC¬†+2.78%
  • USOil¬†‚Äď rallied again to $72.65 but has since retreated to¬†$71.75
  • Gold¬†‚ÄstBURST from range¬†to close over¬†$1800 (¬†from test of 46 day low on Wednesday at $1753) over $1805 today at¬†$1808¬†currently.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD 1.1330,¬†USDJPY 113.55,¬†Cable¬†1.3320.

Overnight¬†‚Äď German Producer Prices (miss at 0.8% vs 1.4% & 3.8% prior) but Bundesbank sees German Inflation @ 3.6% for 2022 vs 1.8% in June) UK Retail Sales, better than expected 1.4% vs 0.8% & 1.1% last time)

European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is up 21 ticks at 174.26, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are fractionally higher.¬†DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down¬†-0.5%¬†and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ still underperforming and down -0.2%. Wall Street closed with broad losses yesterday and sentiment remained depressed across Asian markets overnight, with Chinese tech stocks in particularly hit. This week‚Äôs round of central bank decisions confirmed that banks are moving out of crisis modes and that omicron won‚Äôt prevent a gradual withdrawal of support. In Europe the BoE‚Äôs rate hike in particular send a pretty clear signal and markets will continue to digest this week‚Äôs round of meetings today. The calendar has German Ifo readings, which are likely to look pretty dismal, if yesterday‚Äôs PMI reports are anything to go by.

Today¬†‚ÄstQuad Witching; CBR Policy Announcements

2021-12-17_09-35-55-1024x360.jpg

2021-12-17_10-01-48-1.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.36%) rRejection of 78.00 yesterday is follwed by more weakness today. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line, RSI 40 & falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 20 ‚Äď Risk-Off greets the start of Week 51.

 
daily-market-update.png
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.60) rallied on Friday from 95.80 lows and holds gains to start the week.¬†Stocks¬†sank again on Friday and are lower today,¬†Yields¬†also fell and remain down.¬†Oil¬†tanked -2.79% Friday to 2-week lows,¬†GOLD¬†rallied and cooled but holds $1800. Risk off starts the new week with¬†JPY¬†in demand. Catalyst ‚ÄstOMICRON¬†‚Äď lockdowns and further restrictions in Europe, health systems stretched. Other market news ‚Äď China cuts borrowing costs, Biden‚Äôs $1.75tn build back better bill will be blocked by Manchin. Chile (worlds biggest Copper producer) elects young left-wing President (Boric).
  • US Yields¬†10yr traded down significantly to¬†1.402%¬†on Friday, now down again 1.36%
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†-48 (-1.03%) at¬†4668¬†(was down over 68pt) Dow lost over 500pts‚ÄstUSA500.F¬†trades down again at¬†4568.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď slumped over -2.79% to close at $70.14 and is down another $2.50 again today to¬†$67.50
  • Gold¬†‚Äď Another volatile day on Friday, touched 1815 but closed at¬†1798.¬†Holds over¬†$1800¬†currently.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD 1.1250¬†from 1.1235,¬†USDJPY 113.40¬†from¬†113.70¬†close on Friday,¬†Cable¬†closed at¬†1.3234¬†down again today to test¬†1.3200,¬†after more political turmoil, as Brexit Minister¬†Lord Frost resigns¬†and more photos of Tory staff (including Jonson) breaking lockdown rules.
Overnight¬†‚Äď ECB‚Äôs¬†de Cos: Rate hikes are unlikely in 2022,¬†NZD¬†Trade balance improves significantly and consumer sentiment surprisingly holds up.

European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks, the 30-year has rallied 90 ticks, alongside broad gains in US futures, amid concern that Biden‚Äôs spending package won‚Äôt get sufficient support to go ahead after all. US growth forecasts are already being revised down in some quarters and without the prospect of considerable fiscal support, it will remain up to the central bank to keep the economy afloat, which will likely mean¬†a less aggressive tapering schedule¬†from the Fed. Stock markets tanked across Asia on the news and¬†DAX and FTSE 100 are down -2.2% and -1.7%¬†respectively.¬†Virus developments are adding to the risk off backdrop, with parts of Europe already back in lockdown and others once again contemplating wide spread closures over the holiday period as booster programs are not fast enough to deal with the Omicron variant.

Today¬†‚ÄstU.S. leading indicators

2021-12-20_09-53-14.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.74%) Down from 82.40 on Thursday to 80.25 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram moving lower & under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 26, OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.17 Daily ATR 0.97.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 21st December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 21 ‚Äď Turnaround Tuesday & Winter Solstice.


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Trading Leveraged Products is risky
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.50) held onto gains as US¬†stocks¬†fell over 1% again,¬†Yields¬†also dipped.¬†Oil¬†posted 2-week lows before recovering and¬†GOLD¬†could not hold $1800.
  • Risk-off, shaken off so far today as Asian markets rally. Biden‚Äôs $1.75tn build back better bill still being resisted by Manchin but signs are more positive.¬†Nikkei¬†+1.79%¬†and European & Futures rise over¬†1%.¬†OMICRON¬†‚Äď still weighs, NZ delays opening borders, UK no new measures now but cannot rule out lockdowns (probably after Christmas) ‚Äď 73% of all cases in US were Omicron last week, and first death confirmed.
  • Turkish Lira¬†recovered¬†+23%¬†yesterday and another +11%¬†today ‚ÄstErdogan¬†promised to back/guarantee local savings in LIRA (up to $1.5 billion local USD savings converted to LIRA on Monday night). Some speculators in¬†USDTRY¬†over¬†15.00¬†no-doubt burnt but this does not change the fundamentals of the Turkish economy and 20%+ inflation-rate. Move in¬†USDTRY¬†off lows today at¬†13.60.
2021-12-21_09-32-59.jpg
 
  • US Yields¬†10yr traded down to¬†1.419%¬†now 1.43% lifted as market sentiment improved and save haven flows were reversed.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†-52 (-1.14%) at¬†4568¬†Dow & Nasdaq -1.23% ‚ÄstUSA500.F¬†trades up at¬†4593. Nike & Micron¬†beat earnings significantly, Movers;¬†PFE¬†+2.6%,¬†MRNA¬†-6.25%
  • USOil¬†‚Äď slumped to $65.88 yesterday bounced to¬†$69.00¬†now as sentiment lifts
  • Gold¬†‚Äď Could not hold the key¬†$1800¬†handle yesterday & tested 1788 again, now up at 1790.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD 1.1275¬†from a test of 1.1300,¬†USDJPY 113.72,¬†Cable¬†tested down to 1.3173,¬†recovered to¬†1.3215¬†after no new restrictions announced.
Overnight¬†‚ÄstRBA Minutes¬†‚Äď confirmed worries over Covid-19, Inflation and ‚ÄúCommitted to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions.‚ÄĚ

European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is down -33 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries, which are also in the red.¬†DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.2%, and a 1.2%¬†rise in the¬†NASDAQ¬†future is leading US markets higher, after a broad rebound across Asian markets. Omicron and the associated comeback of restrictions remain in focus, but the general feeling is that developments will dent, but not derail the recovery.

Today¬†‚Äď German GfK Consumer Sentiment, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash).

2021-12-21_09-52-02.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.31%) Bounced from 76.00 lows yesterday to 76.40 now. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but still under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 52 & rising, Stochs OB zone. H1 ATR 0.125 Daily ATR 0.714.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 22nd December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 22 ‚Äď Stocks recover poise.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
‚ÄúCOVID remains a threat to the global economy. Initial evidence suggests the Omicron variant is¬†more transmissible¬†but results in¬†less severe illness¬†compared to previous variants,‚ÄĚ ‚Äď CBA
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.50) held onto gains as US¬†stocks¬†recovered all of Monday‚Äôs losses, as¬†Yields¬†also rose;¬†USOil¬†rose 3.7% breaking back over¬†$70.00¬†and Gold once again pivots at¬†$1788. Risk back on, & a weaker¬†JPY¬†&¬†CHF. Asian markets also higher again. Huge spike in European wholesale power prices ‚ÄstOMICRON¬†signs of market boredom? ‚Äď Biden orders 500 million free at-home tests, UK & US cut contact isolation times from 7- to 5-days, Israel offers a¬†4th dose¬†of the COVID-19 vaccination to people over 60.
  • Turkish Lira¬†holds on to gains for now¬†USDTRY¬†at¬†12.60.
  • US Yields¬†10yr traded up to¬†1.487%¬†and trades at 1.46% now
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†+81 (+1.78%) at¬†4649¬†Dow +1.6%, Nasdaq +2.4% ‚ÄstUSA500.F¬†trades up at¬†4634.¬†Nike +6.15% & Micron +10.54% after earnings beat. Other movers; TSLA +4.29% & CITRIX +13.63% as takeover target.¬†PFE¬†-3.39% &¬†MRNA¬†-2.98%
  • USOil¬†‚Äď rallied 3.7% peaking at¬†$71.45, as sentiment lifts, low inventories and increasing demand.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď once again rejected $1800 and pivots around the key 1788 level .
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD 1.1264,¬†USDJPY¬†rallies to¬†114.15,¬†Cable¬†recovers form 1.3200 to¬†1.3255¬†now
Overnight¬†‚ÄstBOJ Minutes: ‚ÄúSee need to keep monetary easing despite costs‚ÄĚ (no surprise).¬†UK Q3 GDP¬†unexpectedly revised down to¬†1.1%¬†q/q from¬†1.3%¬†q/q reported initially. Business investment¬†-2.5%¬†vs.¬†0.4%¬†and Current account deficit leapt to¬†-¬£24.4b¬†vs.¬†-¬£15.8¬†expected and¬†-¬£8.6b¬†in previous quarter.

European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is up 16 ticks at 173.47, matching moves in Treasury futures. The long end outperformed and 30-year futures have been rallying overnight, as the risk on rally in stocks started to run out of steam overnight.¬†DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still posting gains of 0.45 and 0.3%¬†respectively, but US futures are fractionally lower, as virus developments and the outlook for US fiscal stimulus remains in focus. In Europe most governments seems to be shying away from imposing stricter lockdown measures this side of the Christmas holidays, but that may mean more stringent measures are needed thereafter.

Today¬†‚ÄstUS GDP,¬†Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales

2021-12-22_09-57-29.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (+0.31%) Bounced from from test of 1.2150 lows Monday & Tuesday to 1.2270 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher but stalling over 0 line since mid-Tuesday, RSI 68 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0012 Daily ATR 0.0087.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 27th December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 27.


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Stock markets were narrowly mixed across Asia in cautious trade, with Australia and Hong Kong among the markets still closed for the extended holiday weekend. In Europe, the UK is still on holiday and in North-America Canada will remain shut today.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.20) steady within 96-96-25 area.¬†US¬†stocks¬†sustain gains in contrast to¬†Asia¬†stocks¬†which corrected lower despite further promises of support for the economy from officials in Beijing.¬†Yields¬†also rose;¬†USOil¬†&¬†Gold¬†under refresh pressure.
  • Japan retail sales came in stronger than anticipated¬†‚Äď the government last week announced more stimulus measures that also include a direct handout to families, which is boosting the chances of a consumption led recovery, although Omicron could still derail that scenario.
  • US Yields¬†10yr has corrected -1.7 bp to¬†1.48%,¬†as US Treasuries have found buyers.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†settled at¬†4730¬†(0.5% above key 4700),¬†NASDAQ¬†at 16344,¬†USA30¬†at 35950,¬†GER30¬†future is down -0.3%,¬†Nikkei¬†corrected -0.37%.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď reversed from¬†$73.58, to¬†72.34,¬†after airlines called off thousands of flights over the Christmas holidays amid surging COVID-19 cases, though Brent crude gained support from hopes that the Omicron variant will have limited impact on global demand. The contract did not trade on Friday because of the US market holiday.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď steady above $1,805 as weaker US yields counter firmer Dollar.
  • FX markets¬†‚Äď Yen struggled, and¬†USDJPY¬†lifted to¬†114.68,¬†EURUSD 1.1317,¬†Cable¬†trades at¬†1.3400.
Today¬†‚Äď The data calendar is also pretty empty on both sides of the Atlantic, which will leave investors mulling virus developments and central bank outlooks, with early trading suggesting a cautious backdrop and limited moves.

proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fanalysis.hotforex.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2021%2F12%2FCapture.png&hash=a2a4ecd480b2b8137e2e4ea1d4eebef6

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.60%) Breached 1.5692, breaking the 20- and 50-hours SMA, which have been bullishly. MACD signal line & histogram turn positive. RSI 61.73 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 28th December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 28 ‚Äď Risk-on Sentiment Continues.


risk-696x364.png

  • It was another record setting performance for the¬†USA500. It hit its 69th new high of the year, which itself is the second best on record. Easing in Omicron fears and signs of strong holiday sales helped underpin the¬†USA500‚Äės¬†1.38%¬†jump to 4791. All 11 S&P sectors are higher, with gains paced by¬†technology and energy. Travel stocks remain heavy though have recovered from their worst levels early in the session as Omicron concerns have been allayed some.
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.04).
  • US Yields¬†10yr finished at¬†1.472%, below the¬†1.50%¬†level since December 9. Treasuries were mixed with the long end outperforming in a flattening trade, while the front end was pressured by supply. A cautious tone could prevail near term to keep a bid in bonds, even as 2022 is expected to see 2, if not 3 quarter point rate hikes.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstNikkei¬†jumped¬†1.4%¬†after stronger than expected production numbers. The ASX lifted 0.4%. The¬†USA100¬†surged¬†1.39%¬†while the¬†USA30¬†rallied¬†0.98%¬†just shy of their historic peaks from November.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď extended gains to¬†75.82, after surging more than 2% to their highest in a month a day before.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď rose to $1,815.
  • FX markets¬†‚Äď Yen lost ground as traders stayed in riskier assets,¬†USDJPY¬†lifted to¬†114.89,¬†EURUSD 1.1326,¬†Cable¬†trades at¬†1.3434.

Today¬†‚Äď Today‚Äôs calendar includes the aforementioned 5-year auction, along with data on home prices with the October S&P/Case Shiller report and the FHFA data. The December Richmond Fed index is also due.

Capture-2.png

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Retests 0.6815, sustaining 1-month highs. However sentiment remains neutral as fast MAs have flattened while RSI and MACD signal line & histogram are settled at the neutral zone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 29th December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 29 ‚Äď Another bout of risk appetite.


Europaaaaa-1-696x550.jpg
  • The Global stock market rally ran out of steam, with Asian markets trading mixed, in combination with year end malaise taking its toll. There was little to no inspiration to drive yields one way or another, leaving rates little changed on the day, but with a curve flattener intact. The USD (USDIndex¬†96.37) was supported.
  • US Yields¬†10yr has corrected -0.7 bp to¬†1.47%, as the rally on stocks ran out of steam during Asian hours.
  • Tech stocks¬†drove the decline in Hong Kong as markets eye Beijing‚Äôs tightening oversight, while¬†China‚Äôs property slowdown remains a concern.¬†Bloomberg highlighted that a¬†key gauge of interbank funding costs fell to the lowest level¬†since January, after the central bank added more cash to the financial system ‚Äď to ease an expected surge in seasonal demand for liquidity.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstNikkei¬†down¬†-0.6%,¬†Hang Seng has lost¬†-1.0%¬†as the lockdown in Xian city to curb the spread of COVID-19 continued for the seventh day. The¬†USA100¬†surged¬†1.39%¬†while the¬†USA30¬†rallied¬†0.98%,¬†just shy of their historic peaks from November.¬†GER30¬†future is down¬†-0.2%¬†and the¬†UK100¬†is up¬†0.6%¬†in catch up trade.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď at¬†75.96¬†as it remains supported and is trading close to a 1-month high after a Bloomberg story saying the¬†American Petroleum Institute reported crude holdings fell by 3.1 million barrels last week.¬†Official data are due later today, but the report is already underpinning prices.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď down to¬†$1,801.
  • FX markets¬†‚Äď USD was supported with¬†USDJPY¬†stuck below the psychological¬†115.00¬†level at¬†114.89,¬†EURUSD¬†dipped under1.1300,¬†Cable¬†dropped back to¬†1.3414.
  • Turkish Lira was down around 2% at 12 per US Dollar on the day, bringing losses so far this week to 12%. The beleaguered currency had rebounded more than 50% from record lows around 18 last week, after the country announced some support measures.
Today¬†‚Äď The calendar remains light with just the November advance goods trade, wholesale and retail inventory reports, pending home sales, and weekly MBA mortgage numbers and oil inventories.

2021-12-29_12-25-18.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.24%) has dipped under the 1.13, turning below S1, with fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flirting with the OS barrier and MACD signal line & histogram negatively configured.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 30th December 2021.

Market Update ‚Äď December 30 ‚Äď End-of-year trading is not kind to Treasury bulls.


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End-of-year trading was not kind to Treasury bulls as unwinding of the month’s Omicron inspired haven purchases were unwound. The break of key technicals and very thin liquidity conditions exacerbated the climb in rates.
 
  • The USD (USDIndex¬†96.37) was supported.¬†US Yields¬†sold off after key technical levels were breached and the 7-year auction was poorly subscribed. The¬†10-year¬†penetrated the 50-day moving average at¬†1.526%¬†and the¬†30-year¬†pierced the 100-day moving average at¬†1.938%, which saw the yields rise to intraday peaks of¬†1.5548% and 1.9687%. following the auction results. The 2-year yield, meanwhile, was fractionally higher at¬†0.752%.
  • Equities¬†-Broader indexes advanced to¬†fresh all-time highs. The¬†USA30¬†was up 0.25% to¬†36,488¬†and the¬†USA500‚Äôs¬†rose 0.14% to¬†4,793 ‚Äst70th new high of the year. The¬†USA100¬†lagged with a -0.10% loss. The¬†GER30¬†future is up 0.1%, the¬†UK100¬†future down -0.1%.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď at¬†75.80, bouncing within 75-77 area.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEuro¬†and¬†Sterling¬†dropped back against a largely stronger US Dollar.¬†EURUSD¬†is at¬†1.1315¬†and¬†Cable¬†at¬†1.3473.¬†USDJPY¬†breached¬†115.20.
Today¬†‚Äď Germany is already on holiday again tomorrow, the UK extends the weekend through to Monday and volumes are likely to remain low today, although the calendar still has some interesting releases in Europe. Preliminary inflation data for Spain are due, the Swiss Kof indicator will also be released. US Weekly jobless claims highlight.

2021-12-30_09-59-38.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.22%) pullback from 1.1398 highs to 1.1314. Fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flattened though at 42 Stochastick are in OS area while MACD lines decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 3rd January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 3 ‚Äď Front foot for the new year.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Welcome to 2022,¬†Evergrande¬†back in the headlines, having defaulted , shares have been suspended, (they fell 90% in 2021) awaiting ‚Äúinside information‚ÄĚ. TESLA beat delivery targets & more woes for the TRY as Inflation hits 19-year highs.

The 2021 close ‚ÄstS&P500¬†(+27%) ,¬†USDIndex¬†+6.3%, 10-yr yields broke 1.5%,¬†Oil & Gas¬†(50% & 48%¬†respectively,¬†Coffee¬†was the best performing commodity¬†+70%,¬†Gold¬†lost¬†‚Äď4%).¬†European Banks¬†gained¬†+34%,¬†US Treasuries¬†lost¬†-3%¬†and the¬†Chinese Tech & Property¬†sector collapsed.¬†Inflation (US 6.8% EZ 4.9%, UK 5.1% & Japan 0.1%), Energy & Food costs rallied.¬†Crypto‚Äôs¬†volatile & surged (BTC +60%),¬†Meme Stocks¬†monstrously volatile (GameStop¬†+700%¬†‚Äď as high as +2,500%) &¬†AMC +1200%¬†(up 3200% at one point).¬†NFT‚Äôs arrived¬†(Market Cap 2021 ‚Äď $22Billion+ vs just $100 million in 2020)
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†95.90) recovered from 2021 close at 95.50 zone. US¬†stocks dipped into year end,¬†&¬†Yields¬†also slipped.¬†USOil¬†&¬†Gold¬†both held on to healthy gains.
  • US Yields¬†10 yr traded to¬†1.51%
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†-12.55 (-0.26%) at¬†4766 NASDAQ¬†-0.61%,
  • USOil¬†‚Äď slipped from $76.00 but held onto $75.00 ahead of OPEC+ meeting tomorrow.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď spiked to $1831 on the weaker USD, and holds at 1825
  • Bitcoin¬†down to¬†47k
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD 1.1340,¬†USDJPY¬†holds over¬†115.00 & Cable¬†holds over¬†1.3500.
European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is down -11 ticks, US futures are underperforming, while stock futures are higher in Europe and the US.¬†Large parts of Asia were still on holiday today and in Europe, the U.K. remains shut for the extended New Year holiday.¬†The calendar focuses on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, which are not expected to bring major revisions and confirm that virus developments have slowed the pace of expansion.

Today¬†‚Äď Final Manu PMI‚Äôs from EZ ‚ÄstUK, US & Canada remained closed for New-Year

2022-01-03_10-27-41.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.43%) Correcting Friday’s rally to 1.1385, trades down to 1.1336 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower but above 0 line. RSI 47 and falling, H1 ATR 0.00144 Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 4th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 4 ‚Äď USD & Tesla shine as Treasuries get hammered.


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Treasuries were hammered to kick off 2022 action as bond bears were in full control, making this the worst start to a year since 2009. Sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story. Apple breached the $3 trillion market capitalization mark and TESLA shares rallied +13.5% after block buster deliveries. Sarah Raskin rumoured to be FED Vice Chair for Supervision, suggesting a tighter regime.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.30) rallied at US open from 95.50 lows. US stocks hit new all-time highs &¬†Yields¬†lept higher as US Treasuries were slaughtered.¬†USOil¬†dipped under $74.00 before recovering &¬†Gold¬†sank to $1800.
  • US Yields¬†10 yr rocked up to close at¬†1.62%¬†and trade at¬†1.63%¬†now
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†+30 (+0.26%) at¬†4766, NASDAQ¬†+1.2%; APPL +2.5%, FB +4.01%, ABNB +3.75%, PFE -4.06%,¬†USA500¬†FUTS now¬†4795.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď slipped under $74.00 (rumours of 400k b/d production increase for Feb.) before recovering to¬†$75.60¬†now ahead of OPEC+ meeting today.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď spiked down under¬†$1800¬†from $1831 on open and trades at¬†$1805¬†now.
  • Bitcoin¬†slipped again, down to 45,600,¬†trades at¬†46,500¬†now.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†under¬†1.1300¬†at¬†1.1285,¬†USDJPY¬†moves higher, testing¬†115.80, Cable¬†back under key¬†1.3500¬†at¬†1.3470.
Overnight ‚ÄstStrong¬†Asian Manu.PMI‚Äôs¬†(led by¬†China & JPY) suggest initial Omicron impact on Q4 may be limited.¬†German Retail sales¬†beat significantly (0.6% vs -0.2%)

European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, underperforming versus US futures, although they are also in the red.¬†DAX and FTSE 100¬†futures are posting¬†gains¬†of¬†0.3% and 1.1%¬†respectively, the latter outperforming in catch up trade, as markets returned from the extended holiday weekend. US futures are up 0.2 to 0.3% and it seems¬†overall sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story, which is also underpinning a rise in yields.

Today¬†‚Äď German Unemployment, UK Manufacturing PMI Final, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US¬†JOLTS,¬†JMMC/OPEC+¬†meetings.

2022-01-04_10-01-46-300x246.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.43%) Formed a base at 82.85 yesterday rallied on risk-on mood to 83.50 MAs aligned higher MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 59 & rising, H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.76.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 5th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 5 ‚Äď Yields higher again, FED minutes in focus.


proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fanalysis.hotforex.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2018%2F12%2Feu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png&hash=63af72dab57444bcf14a65dfbc106746 Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Treasuries continued under pressure as yields moved up supporting USD, Equities were mixed; Financials and Automaker’s (EV) rallied, US data (Jolts, & ISM Manu PMI’s) missed expectations, OPEC+ delivered production increase for February. Goldmans talked of $100k Bitcoin. US reported 1 million daily COVID cases, Israel says 4th dose effective at increasing antibodies, France discovers new variant with 46 mutations.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields ‚Äď pressuring the YEN in particular. US stocks (Dow & S&P) hit new all-time highs but Nasdaq lost -1.33%.
  • US Yields¬†10 yr rocked up to close at¬†1.668%¬†trades at¬†1.64%¬†now.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†-3 (+0.06%) at¬†4793¬†Ford¬†(new 20-yr high)¬†+11.67%, GM¬†+7.47%¬†TSLA -4.18%,¬†USA500¬†FUTS now¬†4780.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď spiked over $77.00 trades at¬†$76.75¬†now post OPEC+ big drawdown in private inventories ‚Äď
  • Gold¬†‚Äď holds over¬†$1800¬†significantly at¬†1813¬†now.
  • Bitcoin¬†holds over 45,000,¬†trades at 46,400 now.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†recovered back to¬†1.1300,¬†USDJPY¬†new-5-yr high at 116.30 now¬†116.00, Cable¬†back over 1.3500 at¬†1.3530.
Overnight ‚ÄstTech stock in particular were under pressure in Asia from stronger USD & higher US yields.

European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming, as stock markets started to correct from recent highs. Travel and tourism shares boosted indexes yesterday, but market sentiment started to turn overnight and¬†DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.2%.

Today¬†‚Äď EZ & US Composite/Services PMI (Final),¬†US ADP,¬†FOMC minutes

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Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.33%) Sank to 1.6540 earlier and has rallied to 1.6620, yesterday’s high breached 1.6660. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, but below 0 line. RSI 57.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0020 Daily ATR 0.0120.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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EURUSD TARGETING THE 1.2900 LEVEL IN THE EUROPEAN SESSION. GERMAN MANUFACTURING SLOWS DOWN IN SEPTEMBER.

EURUSD rose yesterday and shut down at 1.2848. The Consumer Confidence in the Eurozone tumbled to a perusing of - 11 in September denoting its least perusing since February. During his discourse, the President of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi expressed that the financial recuperation in the Eurozone is missing and added that the ECB is prepared to go to any eccentric lengths to work on the expansion and the monetary circumstance in the cash association. The main financial expert of the European Central Bank Peter Praet expressed that the ECB isn't attempting to push the Euro lower to help the delicate monetary recuperation. Information from the United States showed that the Existing Home Sales in the biggest economy on the planet arrived at 5.05M in August. The market had anticipated that a rise should 5.21M.

Support for the EURUSD is seen at 1.2820 and obstruction is seen at 1.2922.

EURUSD-23-September-2014.jpg"/>

Disclaimer: Nothing in this correspondence contains, or ought to be considered as containing, venture guidance or a speculation suggestion or a sales for buy or offer of any monetary instrument.

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Date : 6th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 6 ‚Äď Hawkish Fed ‚Äď Rate hikes on the way.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
‚ÄėA¬†‚Äúvery tight‚ÄĚ job market¬†and unabated inflation might require the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sooner than expected¬†and¬†begin reducing its overall asset holdings as a second brake on the economy, US central bank policymakers said in their meeting last month.‚Äô ‚Äď Reuters

Stocks tanked, Yields spiked and the USD held firm as EM & commodity currencies sank.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.30) holds gains supported by higher yields ‚Äď pressuring the commodity complex in particular. US stocks tanked (Dow & S&P) down -1% & -1.94% respectively with NASDAQ losing 522 points¬†-3.34%
  • US Yields¬†10-yr rocked up to close at¬†1.70%¬†trades higher again at¬†1.73%¬†now.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†-96 (-1.94%) at¬†4700 TSLA -5.35%,¬†AT&T¬†+2.22%.¬†As value stocks gained and growth stocks were hit the hardest,¬†USA500¬†FUTS now¬†4691.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď spiked over¬†$78.00¬†trades at¬†$76.84¬†inventory drawdown not as big as expected and a big build in gasoline storage
  • Gold¬†‚Äď down to¬†$1800¬†sagain after test & rejection of¬†1830.
  • Bitcoin¬†sinks under holds over 45,000,¬†trades at 43,200 now.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†back to¬†1.1285,¬†USDJPY¬†off 5-yr highs under¬†116.00¬†at 155.90,¬†Cable¬†tested 1.3600 aback to test¬†1.3500¬†now.
Overnight ‚ÄstChinese Services PMI‚Äôs & German Factory Orders both better than expected. Asian share followed US lower ‚Äď

European Open¬†‚ÄstRisk-Off ‚ÄstThe March 10-year Bund future is down -38 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Overnight and mounting concern of an accelerating tightening schedule in the US has been adding to pressure on stock markets overnight.¬†DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently posting losses of -1.5% and -1.4% respectively¬†and US futures are down -0.3-0.6% with the NASDAQ future underperforming as tech stocks continue to struggle.

Today¬†‚Äď Preliminary German inflation data for December, Eurozone PPI, final UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims, ISM Services PMI and US Factory Orders.

2022-01-06_10-27-08.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.10%) RISK OFF Fed inspired tank to Sank to 82.90 from 84.34 yesterday. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram lower & well below 0 line. RSI 16.06 and significantly OB, H1 ATR 0.1820 Daily ATR 0.8000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 7th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 7 ‚Äď Yields dominate sentiment.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Risk aversion recedes ‚Äď Stocks¬†stabilize but it‚Äôs all about the¬†Yields¬†& sharp rise in short-term 2-yr in particular. USD softer again, Oil rallies, Gold & BTC sink again. Key FED hawk¬†Bullard,¬†talked of actual¬†rate hikes¬†as early as¬†March¬†& that inflation will remain over 3% for all of 2022. Claims missed a tad at 207k vs 200k but remain in strong downtrend, but Services PMI‚Äôs missed significantly (62 vs. 67 & 69.1 prior). Another Chinese real estate developer (Shimao) missed bond payments.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields ‚Äď pressuring the commodity complex in particular.
  • US Yields¬†10-yr rocked up AGAIN to close at¬†1.733%¬†trades at¬†1.72%¬†now.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†-4.53 (-0.10%) at¬†4696¬†as value & cyclical stocks gained and growth stocks pressured.¬†USA500¬†FUTS now¬†4700.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď has spiked over¬†$79.00¬†trades at¬†$79.75 ‚Äst3 key drivers¬†‚Äst(i) further unrest in¬†Kazakhstan¬†(Govt removed cap on fuel & heating oils on Jan 1 ‚Äď prices have rocketed & Russia have sent troops! (ii) Supply cuts in Libya & shutdowns in Canada (iii) Tight inventories.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď down under¬†$1800¬†again to test support at¬†$1788.
  • Bitcoin¬†sinks to test next support at¬†42,000¬†now.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†back to¬†1.1300,¬†USDJPY¬†under¬†116.00¬†at 115.85,¬†Cable¬†back to 1.3545 from¬†1.3500.
Overnight ‚Äď JPY data ‚Äď weaker, German Industrial Production missed

European Open
¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher as are US Treasury futures.¬†DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.04% and 0.16%¬†respectively. Markets are waiting for key US payroll numbers in the afternoon, which will be an important piece of the puzzle for the increasingly hawkish Fed. In Europe the calendar is also pretty busy with trade and production numbers for Germany, consumer spending data for France and preliminary inflation numbers and the latest ESI economic sentiment reading for the Eurozone. Overall the data is likely to support the¬†hawkish camp at the ECB¬†and after Lagarde committed to keep net asset purchases going for most of this year, it will likely become clear that the ECB is falling behind the curve, as Omicron is unlikely to derail the global recovery.

Today¬†‚Äď UK Construction PMI, EZ CPI (Flash), Economic Sentiment,¬†US¬†& Canadian¬†Labour Market Reports, Fed‚Äôs Barkin, Bostic & Daly.

2022-01-07_10-30-58.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.18%) Rallied from 1.8640 lows on Wednesday to 1.8940 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram lower but well above 0 line. RSI 73 OB but still rising, H1 ATR 0.00198 Daily ATR 0.01000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 10th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 10 ‚Äď Cautiousness ahead of US CPI.


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Inflation worries and the Fed’s hawkishness prompted buying in shares like banks that usually perform well in a high interest rate environment, while high-growth stocks were routed. Share markets made cautious gains so far today as US jobs report giving the greenlight to investors to counted down to another US inflation reading that could well set the seal on an early rate hike from the Federal Reserve, lifting bond yields yet further. Going from uber-accommodation in November liftoff as soon as March, multiple rate hikes in 2022, and subsequent balance sheet shrinkage in a matter of two months spiked Treasury yields. Volatility in stocks jumped as investors repriced for the new conditions.

The explosion in coronavirus cases globally also threatens to crimp consumer spending and growth just as the Fed is considering turning off the liquidity spigots, tough timing for markets addicted to endless cheap money.¬†‚Äď Reuters
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†96.20) slips but holds gains supported by higher yields ‚Äď 95.88 currently.
  • US Yields¬†10-yr is coming off of its worst week in years thanks to the FOMC‚Äôs pivot to the hawkish side, and as government and corporate supply picks up. Key technical levels were also broken to exacerbate the selloff. It will be hard pressed to rally unless there are signs Omicron will take more of a toll on growth than currently anticipated, suggesting the FOMC will not need to boost rates as aggressively as feared.
  • Equities¬†‚Äď US equities closing in the red.¬†USA100¬†had struggled at the end of last week, but frayed nerves have started to calm ‚Äď for now ‚ÄstUSA100¬†at¬†15664. USA500¬†at 50DMA below¬†4700. Tech stocks in Hong Kong rebounded, which saw the Hang Seng lifting 0.8%. Stock markets across Asia traded mixed, in quiet trade, with Japan on holiday today.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď held firm,sustaining last week‚Äôs gains at¬†78.70
  • Gold¬†‚Äď at¬†$1794.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†corrected to¬†1.1341¬†amid broader pressure on the Euro,¬†USDJPY¬†rebounded to¬†115.75,¬†Cable¬†steady at 2-month high at¬†1.3590.
European Open¬†‚Äď The March 10-year Bund future is down -13 ticks, US futures are posting similar losses, as yields continue to rise against the background of rising inflation and easing virus concerns. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.2%, as stock market sentiment improved at the start of the week.

Today¬†‚Äď Central bank outlooks and virus developments will remain the focus of attention this week, with investors likely to keep a close eye on upcoming Fedspeak. For today though the calendar is pretty light on both sides of the Atlantic with only Eurozone unemployment and US Wholesale inventories are scheduled.

2022-01-10_11-24-57.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.33%) Rallied to 0.7289 extending to Decmber’s highs. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram well above 0 line. RSI 75 OB but still rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 11th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 11 ‚Äď Directionless Dollar Ahead of Powell.


dollar
Some of the more intense selling pressure seen so far in 2022 took a break this morning. Indeed, though Wall Street opened with sharp declines, the major indexes rebounded through the afternoon and the USA100 managed a modest 0.05% gain. The USA500 was -0.14% lower at the end of the day, while the USA30 lost -0.45%. Bonds traded mixed, as Treasury yields corrected slightly after the move higher in the wake of stronger than expected data yesterday.

Fed remarks: Little insight with no mention of the policy plans. Powell reiterated the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in many years and the labor market is strong, while facing ‚Äúpersistent supply and demand imbalances‚ÄĚ with the resulting jump in inflation taking its toll. That outlook was the underpinning for the shift toward tightening policy sooner than later. He also stressed the Fed will use its tools to support the economy and the labor market.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†95.82) slips from yesterday‚Äôs 96.22 high from temporary yields support.
  • Goldman Sachs¬†expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates four times this year, one more than previously forecast.
  • US Yields¬†10-yr rose to an almost 2-year high above 1.8% overnight, but provided only muted support for the¬†Greenback.-¬†1.759% currently.
  • Today,¬†treasuries cheapened further¬†with the front end underperforming as more hawkish Fed bets were made on the heels of Goldman Sachs‚Äô outlook. The advent of¬†Chair Powell‚Äôs Senate¬†Banking Committee hearing today has also added to the weakness amid uncertainties whether he would push back against the markets‚Äô views on the FOMC and¬†concomitant selloff. The upcoming $52 bln¬†3-year auction also weighed.
  • Equities¬†‚Äď in the red, with the¬†USA100¬†leading the way¬†USA100¬†at¬†15638. Topix¬†and¬†JPN225¬†lost -0.4% and -0.9%, the ASX corrected -0.8%, and mainland¬†China bourses¬†are also¬†in the red, while the Hang Seng essentially moved sideways.¬†GER30¬†and¬†UK100¬†futures, however, are up 0.3%.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď up at¬†78.40.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď north for a 3rd day ‚Äď at¬†$1808.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†at¬†1.1334,¬†USDJPY at¬†115.27,¬†Cable¬†steady at¬†1.3595.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In cash markets US bonds have also found a footing after being pressured by stronger than expected data yesterday. The ECB is struggling to assure consumers that they are not blind to the uptick in inflation, although the central bank risks falling behind the curve.

Today¬†‚Äď Fed Chair Powell‚Äôs testimony headlines today. Along with Powell, there is also Fedspeak from Mester and George (Bullard‚Äôs discussion on policy and the economy was postponed). The only data on tap is the NFIB small business optimism index. Wednesday brings the main event, CPI.

2022-01-11_10-00-08.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.33%) Rebounded to 91.13 reversing nearly half of this week’s losses. MAs currently flat, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line. RSI 51, Stochastics started rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 12th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 12 ‚Äď Not as hawkish as priced in.


inflation_1200x628_2-696x364.png
Fed Powell, Mester and George, along with a 3-year auction added to the action in the markets. This saw yields pick up, and equities retreat. Commodities also caught a boost and oil touched pre-Omicron highs in Asia.

Powell confirmed the shift to normalization and stressed the Fed will fight inflation aggressively, but also indicated liquidity would not be pulled back anytime soon.

‚ÄúFOMC would use its tool to ensure price pressures would not become entrenched, and would act aggressively if necessary.‚ÄĚ.Fed Chair Powell said inflation could last into mid-2022¬†, while the Committee has not made any decisions on the timing of raising rates and allowing the balance sheet to shrink. He promised more clarity on that is coming soon
.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†95.50) ‚Äď 6-weeks low on less hawkish Powell than expected, while data indicate more room for policy easing in China. ‚ÄďChina CPI inflation¬†slowed to 1.5% y/y in December from 2.3% y/y.
  • Treasury yields are richer,¬†with the US Yields 10-yr closing at 1.745%, and though the 2-year was only fractionally lower at 0.895%, it has managed to hold below the 0.90% level since March 2, 2020.
  • Equities¬†‚Äď a drop in rates, saw yields up and helped underpin Wall Street where the¬†USA100¬†outperformed with a 1.4% gain for the day, its best since December 21. The¬†USA500¬†rallied 0.92%, and the¬†USA30¬†was up 0.5%.¬†JPN225¬†rose about 2%. Equities moved higher in¬†Japan¬†and¬†Australia,¬†with tech leading the rise once again.
  • BoJ‚Äôs Kuroda: ‚ÄúJapan‚Äôs inflation is set to accelerate gradually, and the Japanese economy is picking up as a trend.‚Äú
  • Boeing¬†and¬†Salesforce.com led the¬†USA30, while¬†Illumina¬†topped the¬†USA500, up 14% after giving better 2022 revenue guidance. The¬†energy sector rallied 3%,¬†while¬†utilities were down 1%.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď up at¬†81.06 & UKOIL¬†at¬†83.98.
  • Gold¬†-spiked to¬†$1823.
  • BTC¬†steady close to at $40,000 support.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†at¬†1.1360,¬†USDJPY steady at¬†115.30,¬†Cable¬†at 2-month high at¬†1.3645. ‚ÄstUK overcoming a wave of COVID-19 cases led by Omicron & priced in a nearly 80% chance of BoE rate hike in February.
European Open: The GER30 future is up 0.3%, the UK100 future 0.6%, as markets remain in full risk on mood ahead of key US inflation data. Fed Chairman Powell yesterday seemed to provide some reassurance by sticking to the script. That will likely bring the German 10-year rate closer to lifting out of negative territory, as the ECB is still trying to reassure consumers that it is still committed to keeping inflation at bay, while at the same time trying to keep spreads in. A difficult balancing act that will get harder in the coming months.

Today¬†‚Äď The December CPI headlines today. Results in line with forecasts would leave annual rates at a 7.0% y/y pace for the headline, a fresh 39-year high and besting that set in November at 6.8% y/y, and 5.4% y/y for the core versus 4.9% y/y, and a new 30-year high.

2022-01-12_09-40-54.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) USDCAD (-0.10%) Pullback to 1.4268 extending to November’s low area. Fast MAs keep sliding lower, MACD signal line & histogram turned below 0 line. RSI 38 and sloping lower, Stochastics entered OS area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 13th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 13.


london_1200x628-696x364.jpg
Trading was lackluster on Wednesday and consolidative mid-week as the markets equilibrate to the new reality with the FOMC on the move to normalize. Sentiment has turned cautious again and Asian equity markets are narrowly mixed at the moment, with indices struggling to add to yesterday’s gain. Chinese tech stocks retreated after jumping yesterday and troubles at China’s property firms have come back in focus ahead of a wave of key payments.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†94.80) ‚Äď dips breaking the 2-months range ‚Äď inflation ( the biggest jump since June 1982) didnt surprise and kept intact expectations for the Fed‚Äôs tapering or timeline for the first rate rise as early as March.
  • US Yields¬†10-yr at 1.74%.
  • Chinese property developer¬†Sunac China Holdings Ltd¬†plans to raise HK$4.52 billion ($580.09 million) from a share sale for repayment of loans and general corporate purposes
  • Real estate developers¬†extend declines¬†in afternoon trading amid a Bloomberg report that several of the nation‚Äôs biggest banks have become more selective about funding real estate projects by local government financing vehicles.
    Equities -Topix and JPN225 meanwhile are down -0.7% and -1% respectively. The ASX managed to move up 0.5%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -0.07% and -1.4% respectively
  • USOil¬†‚Äď slips at¬†81.58¬†from¬†82.40¬†highs, after EIA inventory data showed fuel demand has taken a hit from Omicron.
  • Gold¬†-steady above¬†$1820,¬†as the US dollar and Treasury yields retreated after inflation data reinforced the need for quicker interest rate hikes.
  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson apologised for attending a party in the Downing Street garden during a coronavirus lockdown.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†at¬†1.1449,¬†USDJPY steady at¬†115.30,¬†Cable¬†at¬†1.3711,the pound generally supported amid signs that PM Johnson managed to survive yet another scandal.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -8 ticks, US futures are also lower. In cash markets the 10-year Treasury has pared earlier gains and is unchanged on the day at 1.74% at the moment. Stocks mostly corrected in Asia, with the rally in tech stocks running out of steam after a cautious close higher on Wall Street yesterday. Central bank moves and virus developments remain in focus and while GER30 and UK100 futures are posting fractional gains, U.S. futures are broadly lower.

Today¬†‚Äď The data calendar today bring December PPI and weekly jobless claims. There are some ECB speakers scheduled.

2022-01-13_10-20-32.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.44%) extends above R1, to 0.6880 high. Fast MAs alighed higher, with MACD rising, RSI at 74 and stochastics sloping northwards.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 14th January 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď January 14 ‚Äď USD longs trimmed positions.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
The market has well priced in elevated inflation and an all but assured March rate liftoff, hence taking in stride a record clip in core PPI at 8.3% y/y and the drop in continuing jobless claims to 1,559k, the lowest since before the pandemic. Markets trimmed long positions and deemed, for now, that several US rate hikes this year are fully priced in.
 
  • USD (USDIndex¬†94.73) ‚Äď found a floor above 94.50.
  • US Yields¬†10-yr has lifted 2.0 bp to 1.72% overnight, as¬†hawkish¬†Fedspeak¬†continued to fuel tightening speculation. ‚ÄstFed Brainard¬†acknowledged that she too could vote for a March rate hike.
  • The¬†Bank of Korea¬†added to the hawkish tone by hiking the key rate to 1.25% from 1.00% and signalling that more moves could be on the way.¬†Bank of Japan¬†is deliberating how it can start telegraphing an eventual rate hike.¬†‚Äď Yen¬†on bid.
  • China‚Äôs trade data¬†showed a marked slowdown in both export and import growth.
  • Equities¬†‚Äď tightening speculation has put pressure on stocks.¬†GER30¬†and¬†UK100¬†are down -0.4%.¬†USA100¬†dropped -2.5%,¬†JPN225¬†corrected -1.3%.
  • UK economy stronger than expected before Omicron.¬†Monthly GDP data for November were a positive surprise, with a rise of 0.9% m/m that compensated somewhat for the disappointing October reading.
  • USOil¬†‚Äď at¬†81.68¬†after¬†80.75¬†bottom, amid concerns on Chinese fuel demand & whether US government will act to cool oil prices.
  • Gold & Silver ‚Äď best weekly rise since November ‚Ästremains however below the key¬†$1835¬†barrier.
  • FX markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†at¬†1.1482,¬†USDJPY down at¬†113.63,¬†Cable¬†at¬†1.3725.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is down -6 ticks, broadly in line with moves in Treasury futures, while both the Schatz and the 30-year futures outperformed. The UK already signalled that virus measures will be relaxed further in coming weeks, which will add to the arguments of the hawkish camp at the BoE.

Today¬†‚ÄďHeadlining is the ECB Lagarde speech and US December retail sales report.

2022-01-14_09-44-56.jpg



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.40%) breaks below 20-day SMA at 82.60 (50-DMA). Fast MAs aligned lower, with MACD lines negatively configured, RSI at 36 but stochastics pointing higher suggesting correction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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