HFM Posted February 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2016 Date : 10th February 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th February 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Kocherlakota says FOMC should go negative on rates. It would be a “daring, but appropriate” move that would speed up the attainment of a 2% inflation rate, he said. He broached that idea back in October. While the Fed could discuss negative rates at its March meeting, especially after the BoJ’s surprise move, we suspect adopting such a policy would be a very last-ditch effort to address a deep contraction in the economy. At this point we’d view any public comments more as lip-service to indicate there are more tools in the stimulus bag that could be used. However, it’s not obvious to us that negative rates would be a solution, Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Q1 estimate was raised again to 2.5% from 2.2% previously thanks to the wholesale trade report, actually above the median Blue Chip economist forecast of 2.3% for a change: “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on February 9, up from 2.2 percent on February 5. The US wholesale trade report undershot estimates with December sales and inventory declines that followed larger November drops that were exacerbated with downward revisions, leaving a sustained climb in the inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio to a lofty 1.32 expansion-high. We still expect a downward Q4 GDP growth bump to 0.5% from 0.7%, while the I/S rise signals downside risk for our 1.8% Q1 GDP forecast. US JOLTS showed job openings surged 261k in December to 5,607k following a 3k November decline to 5,346k (revised from an 82k gain to 5,431k). The JOLTS rate climbed to 3.8% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). Hiring increased 105k to 5,361k following an 88k gain to 5,256k (revised from 5,197k). The rate was unchanged at 3.7% (November revised up from 3.6%). Quitters were up 196k to 3,055k after a 75k increase to 2,859k (revised from 2,831k). The quit rate, a favorite of Fed Chair Yellen, rose to 2.1% from 2.0%. The solid JOLTS report is consistent with the strength in the jobs report from Friday. Main Macro Events Today European Commission Economic Growth Forecast: DG ECFIN produces various economic forecasts on behalf of the European Commission. Economic forecasts concentrate on the EU, its individual member states, and the euro area but also include outlooks for some of the world’s other major economies, and countries that are candidates for EU membership. Fed Chair Yellen’s Monetary Policy Report will be key for market direction for the foreseeable future. Her prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 ET, after which she’ll testify before the House Financial Services Committee (from 10:00 ET). She’ll go in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The focus will be on the tone of her remarks, whether it’s dovish or not. US Crude Oil Inventories: The number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms is released today. After previous two weeks’ rather high inventory numbers (7.8M) we should see the inventories at 3.1M level. However, the actual numbers have lately deviated quite strongly from the analyst expectations. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2016 Date : 16th February 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th February 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Stock markets continued to move higher in Asia, but with gains moderating after yesterday’s rally. The Nikkei is up 0.2% and the Hang Seng 1.23% on the day. US and UK stock futures are also higher. Risk appetite is reviving and Draghi’s remarks yesterday that the ECB is “ready to do its part” to boost the Eurozone are helping. Elsewhere RBA minutes left the door open to further easing. Oil prices are moving higher and the front end Nymex future is trading above USD 30 per barrel. The calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which we expect to fall into negative territory at -0.5%, down from 10.2% in January. The UK has inflation numbers, which are likely to remain benign. In Germany the ECB’s OMT program is once again under the scrutiny of Germany’s top court, who has to deliver its final verdict, after the European top court effectively backed the program. The RBA Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 2.0 per cent. In considering the stance of monetary policy, members noted that recent domestic data had, on balance, been positive and judged that there were reasonable prospects for growth to increase gradually over the forecast period while maintaining inflation close to target. Employment growth over 2015 had been stronger than earlier expected and the starting point for the forecast for the unemployment rate was around ½ percentage point lower. Inflation continued to be relatively low, with underlying measures of inflation at about 2 per cent over 2015. Growth in labour costs also remained quite subdued. Based on the available data and the forecasts for economic activity and inflation, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged at an accommodative setting. Over the period ahead, new information would enable the Board to assess whether the recent improvement in labour market conditions was continuing and whether recent financial market turbulence presaged weaker global and domestic demand. Read more here. ECB’s Deaghi said that the central bank “is ready to do its part” and will “review, and possibly reconsider the monetary policy stance in early March.” He said much will depend on the “size and persistence of the fall in oil and commodity prices and the incidence of second-round effects on wages and prices.” He argued that in light of recent financial turmoil “we will analyse the state of transmission of our monetary impulses by the financial system and in particular banks.” Draghi gave away nothing new, leaving the door firmly open to more action but taking a cautious line ahead of tomorrow’s hearing of the OMT (outright monetary transactions) program before the German Constitutional Court (which could still throw a spanner in the works). He did, however, note “increasing concerns about the prospects for the global economy” and “intensified” turbulence in financial markets.” Draghi has been speaking before a European Parliament Committee. Main Macro Events Today UK Inflation numbers are due today. The January Core consumer price index (YoY) is expected to come in at 1.3%, slightly below December figure of 1.4% while the headline inflation number (including food and energy) is expected to move up one tenth from 0.2%. German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be released today. We expect ZEW to fall into negative territory, thus highlighting that pessimists now outnumber optimists. We are looking for a sharp drop to -0.5% from 10.2 in January, a decline that will only add to mounting growth concerns. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2016 Date : 17th February 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th February 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today ECB’s Nowotny fretting over market expectations. The Austrian central bank head said central banks must watch markets but not be guided by markets and told Swiss financial website Cash that he is concerned market expectations ahead of the March 10 meeting could become as excessive as in December, when expectations had “lost touch with reality”. Nowotny added that the turbulence in global markets is mainly driven by emerging market developments, an sovereign funds aiming to ensure liquidity. He admitted that market turmoil constitutes “a massive destruction of value, which is very negative for overall sentiment”. However, Nowotny stressed that monetary policy can only improve conditions for growth and was very successful in preventing deflation and keeping credit markets intact, but that actual investments have to be made by investors. Boston Fed dove Rosengren said the Fed would be “in no rush at all” to hike rates if US inflation does not rise and would cut rates if missing 2% growth, unemployment rising and significant weakening in U.S. labor markets was seen. That’s about par for the course from the regional Fed president. Fed’s Kashkari said that staff will continue to analyze NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) as a potential policy tool, while noting that global economic and financial developments will be important inputs at the March FOMC. That said, the Fed expects a gradual increase in interest rates to be the base case. The Fed still seems quick to deny NIRP, while mulling its options for the timing of a second hike. A third of energy companies could go bankrupt according to a report released by Deloitte, as credit risk zooms to a record high as low commodity prices cut access to cash and debt. “The roughly 175 companies at risk of bankruptcy have more than $150 billion in debt, with the slipping value of secondary stock offerings and asset sales further hindering their ability to generate cash. These companies have kicked the can down the road as long as they can and now they’re in danger of kicking the bucket, said William Snyder, head of corporate restructuring at Deloitte, in an interview. ‘It’s all about liquidity,'” noted a Reuters report. Main Macro Events Today FOMC minutes will be scrutinized for clues on Fed’s thinking last month. However, the report will be a little out of date following Yellen’s testimony last week, and given the volatility in the markets since the policy meeting. Indeed, recent events have taken a March rate hike off the table, and have pretty much pushed out the next tightening into later in the year. Nevertheless there were a couple of interesting changes in the policy statement which will make for a worthwhile read, and especially the discussions on growth, inflation, and the importance of international developments. First the Fed downgraded its growth outlook somewhat, so we’ll look to specifics on the extent of policymakers’ worries over growth. Additionally, the FOMC revealed diminished confidence that inflation would be picking up toward the 2% target over the medium term, and it will be interesting to see how widespread that angst was. Also, the Fed removed its “balance of risk” stance as it wanted to monitor global economic and financial developments for guidance. US Industrial Production: January industrial production is out today and should reveal a flat (median 0.3%) headline following the 0.4% decline in December and the big 0.9% drop in November. Despite some rebound in manufacturing employment, hours worked declined 0.2% in January and mining sector data continued to face headwinds from the drop in oil prices. Capacity utilization should tick down to 76.4% (median 76.6%) from 76.5% in December. US Produces Price Index: January PPI data is out Wednesday and is expected to reveal a 0.1% (median -0.2%) decline for the headline with the core index up 0.1% (median 0.1%) for the month. This comes on the heels of respective December figures of -0.2% for the headline and 0.2% for the core. Oil prices declined further through January which should continue to weigh on price measures. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2016 Date : 18th February 2016. (First Report) MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th February 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today China’s CPI improved to a 1.8% y/y growth rate in January, slightly slower than expected following the 1.6% y/y rate of increase in December. CPI is gradually accelerating, with January’s growth rate the fastest since August of 2015’s 2.0%. PPI improved to a -5.3% y/y rate of contraction, nearly as expected following the 5.9% y/y rate of decline in December. The climb in annual CPI growth (albeit to still modest rates) and reduction in the pace of PPI decline suggests there could be some stabilization in China’s economy, although policy makers have a long way to go to tame overcapacity. Australia’s unemployment rate climbed higher in January as full-time employment disappointed and dropped most for three years. This is seen signaling diminishing stimulus from record-low interest rates and a weaker currency. Jobless rate rose to 6% from 5.8% while markets expected the rate to be 5.8%. Employment fell 7,900 from December while consensus forecast was a 13,000 gain. FOMC minutes: “many” were concerned over increased downside risks, especially amid uncertainties over economic conditions abroad, financial market stability, and inflation. That uncertainty was a large part of the decision not to assess the balance of risks. Further tightening of financial conditions could amplify the downside risks, while recent developments suggested risks were no longer balanced. The minutes noted the encouraging signs in the labor market, but data on spending and production were disappointing. Additionally, oil and commodity price declines and the firmer dollar were seen keeping inflation low over the near term. And there was a wide range of outlooks for the medium term, with recent developments having “many” now seeing a more uncertain outlook on prices, with risks pointed to the downside. The slowdown in China was seen impacting emerging markets, and together could lead to more of a drag on the US There weren’t any major surprises in the minutes given what had occurred prior to the January 26, 27 meeting, and the subsequent policy decision/statement. Saudi Arabia’s credit rating was cut to A- from A+ by S&P amid the rout in oil, with the outlook revised to “stable” from “negative.” This is the second cut in 6 months as the rating was trimmed to A+ from AA- in late October. The ratings agency said “The decline in oil prices will have a marked and lasting impact on Saudi Arabia’s fiscal and economic indicators given its high dependence on oil.” Oil was trading near $50 at the time of the October review. Main Macro Events Today ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: are due today and contain an overview of financial market, economic and monetary developments. It’s followed by a summary of the discussion, in an unattributed form, on the economic and monetary analyses and on the monetary policy stance. The accounts offer a fair and balanced reflection of policy deliberations. US Initial Jobless Claims: Claims data for the week of February 13th should reveal an increase in the headline to 274k (median 275k) from 269k last week and 285k in the week before that. Claims data is typically volatile through the holiday season but as we begin to move past that we expect to see the February average improve to 273k from 284k in January and 277k in December. US Philadelphia Fed Index: February Philly Fed is out today and should reveal a headline increase to -3.0 (median -2.8) from -3.5 in January. The already released Empire Stateindex for February had the headline at a still negative -16.6 from -19.4 in January but the ISM-adjusted measure managed a stronger rebound with a rise to 47.1 from 43.4. Despite the improvements we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to remain at 49 in February, steady from January and matching the three year low for this measure. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2016 Date : 23rd February 2016. (First Report) MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd February 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Sterling has taken a beating, losing 2% to the dollar, while the currency’s six-month implied volatility shot to 12%, the highest since Nov 2011. It’s all about Brexit, with the debate now very much in full swing following the weekend announcement that the in-out referendum will be held on Jun-23, which in turn followed PM Cameron’s obtainment from Brussels of revised terms of EU membership. The big kicker was London mayor Boris Johnson, who yesterday detonated a bombshell of headlines by announcing that he will be backing the ‘out’ campaign. Moody’s warned UK about Brexit “economic costs”, which it says will be greater than the “economic benefits, “and, in the event, said it would consider assigning a negative outlook on its Aa1 rating of UK sovereign debt unless the country “managed to negotiate a new trade agreement with the EU that preserves at least some of the trade benefits of EU membership.” Moody’s warned of a “prolonged period of uncertainty.” Cable’s Jan-22 low at 1.4202 looks more than likely to be breached, which would put sterling at the lowest levels since March 2009. UK CBI industrial trends unexpectedly slumped in February to a -17 reading in the headline total orders reading, down from -15 in the month prior and off the median forecast for an improvement to -12. Among the components, export orders lifted to -19 from -22, but output expectations fell to +11 from +14 and selling prices dipped to -3 from -1. Sterling dipped to fresh lows in the wake of the data, though selling pressure is more to do with prevailing Brexit worries. US Markit PMI fell to 51.0 in the flash February manufacturing PMI from 52.4 in January. It’s the lowest reading since October 2012 and was at 55.1 a year ago. The new order index slid to 51.7 from 53.6, and the order backlog reading dropped to its lowest since September 2009. The report is another reflection of the erosion in manufacturing. Indeed, Markit reported the slowdown was “overwhelmingly linked” to the softer underlying demand patterns, weaker business sentiment, alongside uncertainty regarding the general economic outlook. Weather was cited by only a small minority of participants. US Chicago National Activity index rebounded to 0.28 in January from a revised -0.34 in December (was -0.22) and -0.39 in November (was -0.36). This breaks a string of 5 negative prints, and is the highest since July. Today’s data brought the 3-month moving average up to -0.15 from -0.30 (revised from -0.24) and -0.20 in November (revised from -0.19). This is a 3rd tier report that won’t really impact the markets. Main Macro Events Today German GDP: second release is expected to confirm the Q4 output at 0.3% (Q/Q) and 1.3% (Y/Y). German IFO: sentiment index is expected to come in at 106.7, slightly below the 107.3 in January. January’s reading was a disappointment and was the weakest number since February last year. December was revise down to 108.6 from 108.7. Global concerns about the outlook for the world economy and falling oil prices clearly have hit German confidence. US Existing Home Sales: January existing home sales are out Tuesday and should reveal a 0.7% headline increase to 5.500 mln (median 5.355 mln) clip for the month from 5.460 mln in December and 4.760 mln in November. The big November-December swing was driven by the implementation of new “know before you sign” regulation that pushed some November closings into December. There is some downside risk to the January headline as that effect unwinds. US Consumer Confidence: February consumer confidence is out Tuesday and should reveal an increase to 98.5 (median 97.5) from 98.1 in January. The first release on Michigan Sentiment for February had the headline falling to 90.7 from 92.0 in January but the IBD/TIPP Poll for the month improved to 47.8 from 47.3 and the Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort survey is poised to average a slightly higher 44.4 from 44.3 in January. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Date : 25th February 2016. (First Report) MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th February 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Rumors China will boost its deficit spending for an additional 1% in GDP saw oil and equity prices surge higher, to the detriment of Treasuries. The S&P bounced back into the green after a better than 1% decline earlier and closed up by 0.44%, while WTI crude closed higher and is now trading near $32.00 again. BoC Schembri: A resilient financial system could withstand a housing shock. He noted that public authorities have “taken appropriate measures to mitigate it.” And the vulnerability should stabilize as the economy improves, household incomes rise and interest rates normalize. He noted that the vulnerability associated with elevated household debt has been on the rise over the past decade. That debt has become more concentrated in highly leveraged households. Hence, the bank’s assessment hinges on both the magnitude of that debt and its distribution. Overall, there is nothing really new here, as the BoC continues to express confidence in the stability of the financial system and for a gradual, orderly resolution to currently elevated levels of household debt. In other words, based on their outlook, household debt is not going to hamper their ability to keep rates at currently lean levels for an extended period or to cut rates. US New home sales fell 9.2% in January to a 494k rate from a 544k clip in December. February last year set a new high back to February ’08 and compares to a low of 270k in Feb. ’11. The headline was weaker than the median forecast of 520k. Sales climbed in the Northeast (3.4%) and South (1.8%), but fell in the Midwest (-5.9%) and West (-32.1%). The median sales price fell 4.5% to $278,800 from $295,800 (was $288,900). US Markit services PMI fell 3.4 points to 49.8 in the flash February print, after dipping to 53.2 in January from 54.3 in December. Indeed, the index has been slipping since hitting 56.1 in November. This is the lowest reading since October 2013 while it was 57.1 a year ago. The employment component dipped to 54.2 from 54.3. The flash composite index slid to 50.1 in February from January’s 53.2, and is also the weakest print since October 2013. The headline drop into contractionary territory is bad news for the services sector, which has been a stalwart for the health of the overall economy and will exacerbate the erosion in equities and risk-off trades today. Main Macro Events Today UK GDP: YoY fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product from is out today. This is the second release and no change is expected from the previously published 1.9% number. Eurozone CPI: no change is expected on today’s January YoY Consumer Price Index release from 0.4% change in December. US January durable goods orders: expected to grow 2.0%. Shipments expected at 0.5%. Inventories expected to grow 0.1%. I/S ratio expected at 1.68, steady from December. Forecast risk: downward, as there was a decrease in Boeing orders in January. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 1, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2016 Date : 1st March 2016. (First Report) MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 2.00%, as was widely expected. Policy remains, not surprisingly, data and event driven as the bank will follow new information to see if the improvement in the job market is sustainable and (repeating a key line from February) whether the “recent financial turbulence portends weaker global and domestic demand.” Notably, Stevens now says “continued low inflation would provide scope for easier policy” should that be needed to support demand. He said it “may” provide scope back in February. He was again largely constructive on domestic growth, saying that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened in 2015. On the exchange rate, he said it “has been adjusting to the evolving economic outlook.” The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), restarted easing operations on Monday. The bank added approximately $100 billion worth of long-term financing into the Chinese economy to mitigate the pain from increased unemployment and bankruptcies in those industries that have been suffered from overcapacity. According to a statement on PBOC website the bank was cutting the reserve requirement ratio, or the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves, by 50 basis points, taking the ratio down to 17 percent for the biggest lenders. China’s manufacturing sentiment shrunk in February, adding to ongoing concerns over the pace of slowing in China’s economy. The official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in February from 49.4 in January. The Caixin manufacturing PMI declined to 48.0 in February from 48.4 in January. Yesterday’s US reports revealed a sharp 8-point Chicago PMI February plunge to 47.6 alongside a 3-point uptick in the Dallas Fed index to -31.8 from a -34.6 expansion-low. We also saw a 2.5% January drop in the pending home sales index to a lean 1.4% y/y rise, which reinforces the view that housing sector growth is moderating despite a winter weather-lift. Yesterday’s figures counter Friday’s more encouraging reports that documented resilience in the US economy to the global growth pull-back. Main Macro Events Today EMU Unemployment Rate: So far the slowdown in confidence indicators hasn’t reached the labour market and jobless numbers continue to come down. We are looking for a further decline in the German sa number of 10K (median same) in February, which would leave the jobless rate unchanged at 6.2%. Eurozone January unemployment meanwhile is seen steady at 10.4%, with headline rates coming off highs, but disparities across countries remaining large and youth unemployment still much too high. With confidence indicators heading south and global headwinds getting stronger, it seems only a matter of time until the labour market starts to feel the chill. Canada GDP: The Q4 and December GDP reports are due today. These two releases are the key reports in a busy week. December GDP is expected to moderate to a 0.1% m/m pace (median same) following the 0.3% gain in November. The separate real GDP measure is seen edging 0.3% higher in Q4 (median is for no change) after the 2.3% bounce in Q3. The reports will show a domestic economy that was limping along, yet still expanding, going into the new year. US Manufacturing ISM: The February ISM is expected to decline to 48.0 (median 48.5) from 48.2 in January and 48.0 in December. Other measures of February producer sentiment have been mixed and despite some headline improvements the various components of the releases have remained weak which could spell downside risk for the ISM. Broadly speaking, we expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures to decline to 48 for the month, a new cycle low, from 49 in January and 50 in December. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 2, 2016 Date : 2nd MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Swiss growth much better than expected at +0.4% q/q, up from -0.1% in Q3 (revised down from 0.0%). The median forecast had been for a 0.2% rise. The y/y figure was also +0.4%, down from 0.8% in Q3 but above the 0.1% median forecast. The jump in the franc in January 2015 following the SNB’s abandonment of its former cap, along with sluggishness in the Eurozone economy have been dragging on the Swiss economy, though the year finished well with the 0.4% growth the best quarterly performance of 2015. ECB’s Draghi brandished his dovish bazooka again, noting that the bank’s policy review in March will be seen against the background of increased downside risks to the prior outlook and there “are no limits” to how far we are willing to deploy our instruments within our mandate to achieve our objective of inflation rates below but close to 2% over the medium-term. Moreover, Euro area inflation dynamics continue to be weaker than expected. Speaking from Frankfurt, Draghi continues to keep expectations high for action in March, which helped relegate the already weak euro to session lows after being weighed firmer rounds of US data earlier. The US February ISM rose to 49.5 (median 48.5) from 48.2 in January while US construction spending grew by 1.5% (median 0.5%) in January following a 0.6% (was 0.1%) pace in December and US Markit manufacturing PMI slid to 51.3 in the final February print, from 52.4 in January, though it improved slightly versus the 51.0 flash February reading. This just beats the all-time low of 51.2 set in December. Canada’s real GDP grew 0.8% in Q4, contrary to expectations (median flat) following the revised 2.4% bounce in Q3 (was +2.3%, q/q saar). The separate December GDP tally showed a 0.2% gain (m/m, sa) that topped expectations (median +0.1%) after the 0.3% bounce in November. The BoC expected a flat reading for real Q4 GDP, so these reports further trim the chances for a near term rate cut from the bank. Note, however that trade made a sizable contribution to growth as exports fell by less than imports, consumption slowed and business investment contracted. So at first glance the dynamics of the Q4 report appear to be roughly in-line with bank projections. Yet these are better than anticipated reports overall, notably the December GDP gain that shows the economy with some momentum going into 2016. Main Macro Events Today Euro Area PPI: The Euro Area Producer Price Index (Y/Y) for January is released today and is expected to come in almost unchanged at -2.9%. December reading was -3.0%. This should put ammunition in the hands of the doves in the ECB. US ADP Employment Change: The ADP unemployment survey for February is due today with an expectation of 195K new jobs against the previous number of 205K. US Fed Beige Book: Traders look forward to this month’s Beige Book release as it is used by the FOMC to help in their interest rate decisions. In the previous release, the Philadelphia Fed stated that the economy was expanding moderately while consumer spending remained mixed. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 3, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2016 Date : 3rd MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Caixin China Services PMI disappointed in February and came in at 51.2 while analysts expected a 0.2 point rise to 52.6 from January. Index is still an indication of expanding services sector but growth was modest and much weaker than the average growth in long term. The survey shows that contraction in the manufacturing sector can spill over into service sector. This could be a red flag for the government and push it to increase its stimulative efforts further. Chinese government has been trying to replace manufacturing and export with private consumption as a key driver for the economy. Fed’s Beige Book reiterated growth expanded in most Districts, according to the report prepared by the KC Fed, with contacts generally optimistic over future economic growth. Consumer spending increased in most regions, but some weakness was noted in KC and Dallas. Auto sales remained elevated. Manufacturing was mostly flat, but conditions varied considerably across Districts. Most note weak demand originating from the energy sector, not surprisingly. Additionally, the stronger dollar and weaker global growth outlook were headwinds to exports. Nonfinancial services activity was up slightly, with demand for staffing services in the rise. Transportation was mixed. Residential real estate was mostly on the rise, while home inventories were low. Residential construction activity had strengthened. Nonresidential sales also improved. Labor market conditions continued to improve. Wage growth varied from flat to strong across the 12 Districts, and most noted consumer prices were holding steady. SF Fed’s Williams said that domestic demand is overwhelming weakness from abroad and he sees the US service sector as the driver next year, while inflation should move back to 2% over the next couple years. He doesn’t see the stock market a good indicator of where the economy is going and doesn’t think that China will be a huge risk to the US economic outlook. Williams sees no tangible risk that the US will fall into recession and the Fed strategy of raising rates is the right one. He still sees some accommodation as needed, but over time favors normalization. This is in keeping with his more bullish view of the economy and consistent favoring of normalizing rates for this hawkish dove. The 214k February ADP rise beat the analyst estimates. The mining-restrained 5k rise in February goods jobs included a big 27k increase for construction jobs follows yesterday’s solid construction spending report to signal encouraging prospects for that sector, though we saw a 9k drop for factory jobs. A stronger than expected 208k climb for service sector jobs explained the headline ADP overshoot, and countered fears of a weakening service sector. U.S. reports over the last week have largely countered the market narrative of a slowing economy despite the big hit to trade revealed in last Friday’s trade data. Main Macro Events Today EMU Final Services PMI: The Eurozone Markit Services PMI for February, is expected to be confirmed at 53.0, unchanged from the preliminary reading. Confidence has been coming off, although mainly in the manufacturing sector, which is more focused on global headwinds and slowing emerging market growth. The services sector continues to benefit from robust domestic demand and PMI levels suggest ongoing expansion, but growth momentum is clearly slowing down and even a better than expected number would do little to dampen demands for further easing from the ECB. US initial jobless claims: Jobless claims are expected to be 270k in the week-ended February 27. Continuing claims are expected to fall to 2,229k for the week-ended February 20. Forecast risk: upward, as the end of the holidays should slow layoffs. Market risk: downward, as weaker than expected data could slow the path of rate hikess expanding moderately while consumer spending remained mixed. US Factory Orders: January factory orders are expected to grow 2.0% with inventories down 0.2%. Forecast risk: upward, given the stronger topline durable inventory numbers. Market risk: downward, as weaker data could impact the path of rate hikes. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 4, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2016 Date : 4th MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today The AUD, NZD and emerging nation currencies gained ground against the USD, JPY and other currencies, continuing to outperform as stocks in Asia built on weekly gains, posting the best winning streak of the year in many cases. AUDUSD logged a three-month high at 0.7376, and AUDJPY a one-month peak. USDJPY, meanwhile, recouped to near 114.00 from the low 113s. EURUSD consolidated in the mid-1.09s after yesterday’s short-covering rally following above-forecast data out of the Eurozone. In the stock market realm, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.3% for the better, up by over 4% on the week, while the main Chinese indexes are set to make today the fourth consecutive daily gain. Oil prices have continued to consolidate the 30%-plus gains seen from January lows amid signs of an improving supply-demand balance. The PBoC’s cutting of its reserve requirement ratio for big commercial banks on Monday, expectations of more stimulus from the ECB at its meeting next Thursday, and encouraging data in the US this week, coupled with market-satisfyingly confident-but-cautious guidance from Fed policymakers have collectively underpinned the prevailing risk-on sentiment this week. Attention is now on today’s US payrolls report, which is expected to show a decent 190k headline gain. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan sounded relatively dovish emphasizing patience on rate hikes and policy accommodation, especially relative to tighter global financial conditions so far this year. That said, he sees resilience in the US economy for 2016 with a 1.9% GDP forecast, once accounting for slowing global growth and tighter financial conditions. As a Texas-based policy maker he sees potential ripple effects from weakness in the energy sector, though oil inventories may begin to fall by mid-2017. He also forecasts the jobless rate falling at a slower pace this year, though a low rate is more sustainable given global overcapacity. Kaplan said that inflation as tracked by the Dallas Fed ticked up in January, which bears watching. Markets remain inert ahead of payrolls. Yesterday’s US reports revealed disappointments across the factory goods, ISM-NMI, and claims figures that trimmed prospects for both GDP and payrolls, though the pattern of upside surprises in US data over the past week remains intact despite today’s setbacks. The productivity report tracked estimates with welcome Q4 boosts in productivity and output alongside big downward bumps in Q3 and Q4 compensation that allowed a hefty trimming in Q3 and Q4 growth for unit labor costs. Talks between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are on the table potentially in the first half of April, according to a Gulf OPEC delegate, but have not been formally set just yet. The source believes the meeting would likely be held in Doha, or some other Gulf city. A production “freeze” at elevated levels was agreed between the Saudis and Russia, but a wider agreement remains to be hammered out. Oil prices continue to consolidate gains in the meantime. Main Macro Events Today US Employment: February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 190k, with a 180k private payroll gain. Forecast risk: upward, as improving claims could provide a lift. Market risk: downward, as substantial weakness could impact the path of rate hikes. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.9%. The workweek is expected to remain at 34.6 from January. Hourly earnings are expected to be up 0.1% which would leave a 2.5% y/y rise. Hours-worked should be up 0.1% for the month following a 0.4% increase last month. Canada Ivey PMI: Canada’s Ivey PMI is expected to drop to 60.0 in February after jumping to 66.0 in January. The run-up in the January Ivey did not mean sentiment across Canada switched from mild pessimism in December to a level of optimism not seen since February of 2012’s 66.5 reading. Underlying not seasonally adjusted data typically sees big swings over November, December and January that are proving difficult to adjust in the seasonally adjusted series. That was likely again the case this time around. Canada Trade: The trade deficit is projected to widen modestly to -C$0.8 bln in January (median -C$1.0 bln) from -C$0.6 bln in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. We see a 0.5% m/m gain in exports after the 3.9% surge in December. Imports are expected to rise 1.0% in January after the 1.6% bounce in December. Oil prices are a key risk, having plunged in January, which should weigh on import and export values. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 8, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2016 Date : 8th MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Fed governor Brainard noted some pick-up in inflation, in her comments on CNBC, with the core PCE rising to a 1.7% y/y pace in January. But that’s only one data point, she stressed, and she wants to see a pattern of increases moving toward the 2% target. Core inflation has also remained stubbornly low. She believes there’s reason for price pressures to build, especially if oil prices stabilize, upward pressures on the dollar abate, and the firming economy boosts demand. But she also sees troubling signs that inflation has moved lower of late, as she noted various downside risks to growth from abroad. She abstained from giving signs on the timing of a hike, but emphasized the two Fed mandates of growth and stable prices, and noted that there hasn’t been much progress on the latter. That suggests she won’t vote for a hike next week, or in the near future. He comments were consistent with prior remarks. Fischer: the Fed would prefer not to use negative rates, he said in Q&A. The FOMC has been looking at what other countries have been doing, in terms of employing various policy tools, and he noted that negative rates have worked somewhat better than expected. Additionally, it seems in his mind it’s a moot point as he indicated the US is not that far away on inflation, and he sees price pressures picking up once oil and the dollar stabilize. US consumer credit rose $10.5 bln in January after a revised $21.4 bln surge in December (was $21.3 bln). November’s $14.0 bln increase was nudged up to $14.1 bln. Non-revolving credit remained the leader, climbing $11.6 bln compared to the prior $15.9 bln increase (revised from $15.4 bln). Revolving credit declined $1.1 bln versus the prior $5.5 bln gain (revised from $5.8 bln). It’s the first decline for that component since February 2015. Main Macro Events Today Final EMU Q4 GDP: The final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP is expected to be confirm growth rates of 0.3% q/q and 1.5% y/y, but is too backward looking to change the outlook. The focus will be on the breakdown, which is likely to show that domestic demand and consumption remain the mainstay of growth, but investment seems to be also picking up, judging by national data already released. BoE Governor Carney Speech: Markets look forward to governor Carney’s speech in order to have clues on the banks future rates policy. We expect the BoE to stave off from hiking rates until Q4 2016 or Q1 2017. Continued disinflationary pressures along with slowing emerging market growth, together with abatement in domestic economic momentum, have been quelling BoE tightening ambitions. BoC Rates Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% policy rate. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firming oil and commodity prices and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year. Canada Housing Starts and Permits: We expect starts, due Tuesday, to improve to a 175.0k unit rate in February (median 182.5k) after the back to back declines in December to 172.5k and January to 165.9k from 212.0k in November. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 Date : 9th MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today Stock markets continued to decline during the Asian session. Global growth concerns are once again hitting equity markets. In Europe, the Brexit debate is hanging over the UK and in the Eurozone investors remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, after the disappointment from December. Draghi is fighting a difficult balancing act while a deposit rate cut and a tweaking of the QE program seem almost certain, the question is if he can pull a rabbit out of the hat against resistance from the conservatives at the council. US equities ended yesterday in the red as the energy sector ended down by 4.2% and the financials dropped by 1.62%. News wasn’t particularly stock market friendly with Citi down 2.4% after the CFO forecasted a 15% drop in markets revenues in Q1 and 25% dive in investment banking revenues, along with a $400 mln charge for restructuring. Energy Action: The EIA lowered its Brent oil price forecasts, now seeing a 2016 average of $34/bbl from its prior $37 estimate, and $40/bbl in 2017, down from $50. Brent futures are currently trading at $39.88/bbl. China bad banks need a lifeline said a NPC delegate according to an article in the WSJ (subscription), in the form of fresh funds to help the resolve rising financial risks and absorb bad assets. The so-called “bad banks” were designated in 1999 to help shoulder $200 bln in bad debts from state lenders and buy bad assets at a discount before restructuring the companies and then selling the assets at a profit. The proposal is aimed at allowing them to go public and expand their asset purchases to help mop up “zombie companies.” Canada housing permit values fell 9.8% in January after a revised 7.7% m/m gain (was +11.3%) in December. According to Statistics Canada, the pull-back in total permit values was due to lower construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in B.C. and Ontario, along with a smaller drag from institutional buildings in Quebec and Alberta. Permit volumes slowed to a 188.4k rate in January from the 217.2k clip in December. Main Macro Events Today UK Industrial Production: Industrial production numbers for January are out today and expected to improve to 0.1% from -0.4% in December. Industrial Production in the UK declined 0.40 percent YoY in December, following a 0.7 percent increase in November. December decline was the first contraction in 28 months and was mainly due to a decrease in manufacturing output. US Wholesale Trade: U.S. Wholesale Trade Preview: January wholesale trade data is out Wednesday and should reveal a 0.8% decline for sales with inventories down 0.2% (median -0.2%) for the month. This follows respective December figures of -0.3% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with our forecast would allow the I/S ratio to tick up to 1.33 from 1.32 where it held in both December and November. BoC Rate Decision: No change is expected to the 0.50% Bank of Canada policy rate in Wednesday’s announcement. A better than expected Q4 GDP gain relative to bank expectations (+0.8% vs flat) along with three months of export gains through January are supportive of a repeat of the cautiously constructive growth outlook. We could see a bit more optimism creeping in, given the good news on GDP and exports, along with firmer oil and commodity prices relative to January and financial markets that have stabilized/improved after a poor start to the year. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 Date : 10th MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today German trade surplus narrows as exports continue to drop. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.8 bln in January, down from EUR 20.3 bln in the previous month. The narrowing reflects a second monthly drop in exports, which fell -0.5% m/m at the start of the year. Imports meanwhile rebounded and rose 1.2% m/m in January, after falling -1.6% m/m in December. This is nominal data that is impacted by oil prices and forex developments, but it confirms the trend of growing imports and slowing export demand, which means the German recovery is for once not export driven, but supported by consumption and lately also investment. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut 25 bps to 2.25%, contrary to widespread expectations for no change. Rate cuts were anticipated this year, just not so soon. Today’s cut was due to a concern over eroding inflation expectations. And more could be in store: Governor Wheeler said “Further policy easing may be required to ensure that future average inflation settles near the middle of the target range. A further cut could come as early as next month on April 28. China’s CPI accelerated to a 2.3% y/y pace in February from the 1.8% growth rate in January. While that left CPI expanding at the fastest pace since the middle of 2014, the gain was driven by food costs, which spiked higher during the week of Lunar New Year holidays. Colder weather also lifted food prices. Hence, the pick-up in the CPI growth rate should prove temporary. Underlying inflation remains tame, leaving ample leeway for the government to implement further monetary and fiscal stimulus this year. The PPI fell 4.9% y/y in February after the 5.3% drop in January, leaving the 48th consecutive decline. There weren’t any real surprises from the Bank of Canada, as it left its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. The key take-away from January, that risks to the inflation profile remained largely balanced, was repeated. Though the general tone of the announcement might have been a little more upbeat, there was still plenty of caution noted given downside global risks. Meanwhile, the S&P/TSX was the global outperformer (excluding Italy), rising almost 0.7%, doubling the gain on Wall Street, thanks to its heavy weighting in oil and commodities. Main Macro Events Today ECB Interest Rate Decision: The ECB is widely expected to ease policy again today when updated set of staff projections will likely bring downward revisions to growth and inflation projections. A deposit rate cut of at least 10 bps together with the introduction of a tiered system to soften the impact is widely priced in. The ECB is also widely expected to widen monthly QE purchases but without a very large deposit rate cut or a change in the pool of assets, Draghi will eventually run into supply constraints, with German bonds the bottle neck the ECB has to funnel its monthly QE spending through unless the ECB abandons the rule of purchasing paper in line with the policy key. That, however, could be interpreted as outright state financing, and such a decoupling or too “exotic” moves could bring Draghi further into conflict with the Bundesbank, but refraining from radical steps risks disappointing markets. US Jobless Claims: Weekly US Jobless Claims (expectations 270k) and Continuing Jobless claims (expectations 2,218K) have been following a volatile downward trajectory since early October of last year. Weaker than expected data will add to the slowing path of rate hikes, better than expected will add to the NFP figures from last Friday and increase speculation regarding a move by the FED next week. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 11, 2016 Date : 11th MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today ECB’s policy “bazooka” backfired at least yesterday, where a buffet of easing steps were at first embraced then later spurned by the markets. For a while it seemed like Draghi had found his magic touch again. By burying a rather modest deposit rate cut in a broad package of other stimulus package, including a new corporate bond purchase program, he managed to keep markets happy, bring in spreads and give stock markets a boost, but only for an hour or so. Peripheral government bonds, stressed banks and corporate bonds were the main beneficiaries. In the long run though Draghi’s eagerness to shield highly indebted countries and banks struggling with non-performing loans may come back to haunt the ECB and the Eurozone. It would appear Draghi did too good a job of signaling the moves in advance, which were clearly priced in, then followed by rapid unwinding on-the-fact. He also managed to confuse markets while he initially managed to bury the modest deposit rate cut in a host of other measures and implicit easing bias. He undid most of the good work by remarking that he doesn’t expect it to be necessary to cut rates again. Given the ECB’s track record, the only thing that means is that there won’t be another cut at the next meeting, and we would expect markets to settle down again today as the details of the stimulus package sink in. Today’s CPI number release from Germany won’t change the picture either as numbers were in line with expectations and mostly unchanged. Japanese business sentiment deteriorated abruptly in the first quarter, the BSI Manufacturing Index indicated today. Financial market turmoil and slow demand globally had impacted negatively Japan’s flimsy economic recovery. The data pressures the policymakers to deploy extra stimulus measures to reflate an economy that is bordering on yet another recession. BSI Index measuring sentiment at large manufacturers came in at -7.9 in January-March, swinging from 3.8 in Q4 2015. BSI index is a joint survey by the Ministry of Finance and the Economic and Social Research Institute, an arm of the Cabinet Office. OPEC, Non-OPEC meeting unlikely to happen on March 20 as previously scheduled, as Iran has yet to agree to the oil production freeze, according to sources cited on Reuters earlier. That sure could explain the reversal in NYMEX crude into the red by -1.9% and back below $38 bbl to the $37.50 area. Canada’s erosion in Q4 capacity use was not a surprise, as the drop to 81.1% in Capacity Utilization Rate fit with the already revealed slowing in real Q4 GDP growth to an 0.8% pace (q/q, saar) from the 2.4% growth rate in Q3. Revisions were substantial in today’s report, but the pattern in 2015 remained intact: The post-recession Q4 2014 near term peak use rate was revised to 82.8% (was 83.3%), falling to 81.9% in Q1 (was 82.5%) and 80.5% in Q2 (was 81.4%) before rising to 81.6% in Q3 (was 82.0%). Main Macro Events Today Canada Employment numbers: We expect employment to rise 10.0k in February (median same at +10.0k) after the 5.7k drop in January. The year started out in a mess, with crude oil prices plunging and global growth worries intensifying. Against that backdrop, total jobs dipped. A less dire backdrop of firmer oil prices and markets that were not melting down is expected to lead to some optimism, lifting employment in February. But the resource and manufacturing sectors remained a drag, which may leave another disappointing report. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: Trends in rig counts are significant clues for market participants in the oil and gas sector as they reveal the supply dynamics in the sector. Rig counts are reported week on Fridays. On March 7th the company announced that the international rig count for February 2016 was 1,018, down 27 from the 1,045 counted in January 2016, and down 257 from the 1,275 counted in February 2015. The worldwide rig count for February 2016 was 1,761, down 130 from the 1,891 counted in January 2016, and down 1,225 from the 2,986 counted in February 2015. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 Date : 15th MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today The improvement in stocks has run out of steam, which should keep bond futures supported. Asian stock markets are mostly slightly down, stock futures in the UK and the US are also heading south, after the BoJ kept policy on hold, while offering a somewhat bleaker picture of the economy and highlighting that inflation expectations are weakening. The door to further easing remains open then, but the BoJ’s decision to stay pat for now, is likely to be mirrored by other central banks this week. The Fed starts its two day meeting today and SNB and BoE will announce their policy decisions on Thursday, with policy expected to be kept on hold, leaving the focus on statements. RBA – Upbeat on jobs but does not rule out rate cut. The Minutes from the last RBA meeting show that it does not rule out another rate cut. Employment has stalled in January, following a very strong end to 2015. “Nevertheless, conditions in the labour market had clearly improved since early 2015,” the RBA said. “Leading indicators of employment had increased further and were consistent with employment growth in the months ahead. “But the central bank said low inflation will allow it to cut the cash rate if jobs growth flattens out or the global economy goes into meltdown. “Continued low inflation would provide scope to ease policy further, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand,” the minutes said. BoJ kept policy on hold, but signalled an implicit easing bias, by painting a bleaker picture of the economy and warning that inflation expectations are falling. The bank also announced that it will exempt around USD 90 bln in money-reserve funds (MRFs) – short term funds – from negative rates, after warnings that investment money would be driven into bank deposits. The pledge to increase base money at an annual rate of JPY 80 trillion was left in place. The BoJ said that while “Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately as a trend”, the pick up in exports, which was still seen in January, has paused, mainly due to slowing growth in emerging market economies. At the same time it said inflation expectations weakened recently. So the door to further easing is left open. ECB ups pressure on governments to implement structural reforms. Bank of France head Villeroy stressed that monetary policy alone cannot revive the economy and said France needs reforms to boost conference. ECB’s Rimsevics also said that monetary policy can only buy time and that politicians need to act on reforms. Hardly anything new, but with the ECB effectively removing market pressure on governments Draghi finds that verbal pressure alone is a blunt tool. Main Macro Events Today US PPI: February PPI is expected to decline by 0.3% (median -0.2%) in its Tuesday release with the core figure down -0.1% (median -0.2%). This compares to January figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.4%. Data in line with our forecasts would result in a flat y/y headline with a 1.1% y/y pace of growth for the core. Oil price declines have tapered off but are still likely to weigh on the release. US Retail Sales: February retail sales data is out on Tuesday and the headline should decline 0.2% (median -0.1% with the ex-autos figure down 0.3% ( median -0.2%) for the month. This follows January figures of 0.2% for the headline and 0.1% for the ex-autos figure. US NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index: The March Empire State Index is out Tuesday and should reveal a headline increase to -12.0 (median -12.0) from -16.6 in February and -19.4 in January. Producer sentiment was strong over the course of the fall but weakened into the new year. We expect the ISM-adjusted average of all measures of sentiment to hold at 49 for a third month. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted March 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 17, 2016 Date : 17th MARCH 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MARCH 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside Japan moved higher overnight, following on from gains in the U.S. after the FOMC trimmed its dot plot to imply just two tightening’s in 2016, which aligns the Fed’s view with the market. Japanese markets were weighed down by renewed strength in the Yen, following the dovish Fed statement. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also up and oil prices are starting to eye USD 39 per barrel. So good leads for European stock markets, but also bond futures and with the Fed statement out of the way the focus shifts to BoE and SNB meetings today. Fed Trims Dots and Remains Cautious: The FOMC statement reflects ongoing caution on global economic and financial developments, though optimism was maintained on the domestic front, and especially with regard to the labor market. The Fed also raised the profile of inflation, which “picked up” but remains shy of its target. The Fed’s mostly downward forecast revisions for the dot-plot and GDP, along with steadier inflation and job outlooks, left the markets taking a dovish cue from the proceedings, though Yellen left open the door for a move as early as April. She also the Fed is “not activity debating or considering negative rates,” or looking into other methods of accommodation. The Fed still has a range of tools it can use if it finds itself back in that situation of needing to add more stimulus. The adoption and impact of negative rates by other central banks is being studied. UK Chancellor Osborne announced GBP 3.5 bln in spending cuts as he presents the government’s 2016-17 budget. He said that cuts would be implemented towards the end of the current parliament, in 2019-20. On the Brexit issue, he argued that the UK is “better off” inside a “reformed” EU and that the official UK growth forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility were based on the country remaining within the union. UK growth was revised down to 2.0% for 2016, down from 2.4% forecast in November, and 2.2% in 2017, down from 2.5% previously envisaged. He quoted the OBR’s view that leaving the EU would “usher in an extended period of uncertainty.” CPI better than expected. The 0.168% February US. CPI drop was upstaged by a sturdy 0.283% core price rise, as the expected 6.0% energy price drop and 0.2% food price rise accompanied hefty gains of 1.6% for apparel prices that extended a 0.6% January rise, a second consecutive 0.5% rise for medical care service prices, and a 0.3% rise for owners’ equivalent rent after four consecutive 0.2% increases. We saw 0.2% gains for new vehicle and tobacco prices. Main Macro Events Today BoE Decision: There is a strong consensus for the BoE to stand pat on policy this week, and we expect the minutes to reveal a unanimous vote to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% (median same). This would make it exactly seven years the repo has been at its historic low. Weakness in the February PMI surveys and the benign inflation backdrop should ensure a dovish-tilted tone in the minutes, though still keeping the door open to an eventual rate hike, which markets are now discounting to be in Q1 next year. It will be interesting to see if there is any mention of “Brexit” risks, which kicked into gear following the PM Cameron’s renegotiated membership terms and consequence setting of a referendum data (June 23).September. SNB Decision: The SNB will have eyed the ECB’s move carefully and especially the fact that the deposit rate cut was rather modest and so far the impact on the CHF proved temporary, could allow the Swiss central bank to hold off with another rate cut at its policy meeting on Thursday. Much will depend on developments in forex markets and even if rates are on hold this week, the SNB has shown before that it can always act at short notice and outside its quarterly policy meetings. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 5, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 5, 2016 Date : 05th April 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th APRIL 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today RBA leaves rates on hold: The Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates on hold for the 11th straight month, despite growing unease about a stubbornly high Australian dollar. The official overnight cash rate target has been left at 2 per cent, where it has been since last being cut in May 2015. The Reserve Bank has attempted to lift expectations that the bank may cut rates, with its governor Glenn Stevens warning that a rising Australian dollar could push it to cutting rates again. “The Australian dollar has appreciated somewhat recently. In part, this reflects some increase in commodity prices, but monetary developments elsewhere in the world have also played a role,” he wrote in his post-meeting statement. Financial markets are pricing in around a one-in-three chance of rates falling next month, with a 50 per cent chance of a cut by August. AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.7600, having been as high as 0.7620. European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of mainland China were under pressure, with the Nikkei underperforming. US and European stock futures are also lower, as risk aversion continues to weigh on markets and oil prices settle below USD 36 per barrel. The RBA kept policy on hold, but left the door open for easing steps as it sends a warning on the strong AUD. The RBI cut rates by 25 bp, also as expected. The European calendar has German manufacturing orders at the start of the session, followed by the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and the UK. Services PMI. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari sees moderate growth: As his outlook for the U.S. economy and views current monetary policy as “about right.” He also noted that it is compelling that the U.S. labor force participation rate is on the rise as he wants to keep putting people back to work as long as inflation stays below the Fed’s goal. “That’s a good thing and we should let that process continue while inflation is running below our target,” he noted. Sounds like he’ll be in Yellen’s dovish camp, barring any unexpected jump in inflation. A little less controversial than the his start as a regional Fed president by critiquing banks for still being too big to fail. Kashkari was speaking at a symposium on banking regulation. US factory orders dropped 1.7% in February: After a revised 1.2% January gain (was 1.6%). Though the headline decline wasn’t as weak as projected, weakness was broad-based and this doesn’t bode well for growth. Durable goods were revised down to a 3.0% decline from -2.8% previously. Transportation orders fell 6.2%. Excluding transportation, orders were down 1.3% compared to a 1.4% gain previously (revised from 1.7%). Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft slid 2.5% from 3.3 (revised from a 3.4% increase). Shipments dropped 0.7%, with nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft falling 1.7% from -1.4% (revised from -0.4%). Inventories declined 0.4% from -0.5% in January. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.37 (January was revised up from 1.36). Main Macro Events Today U.S. Non-Manufacturing ISM The March ISM-NMI is out later today to close out the March producer sentiment readings. We expect the headline to improve to 54.0 (median 54.1) from 53.4 in February The already released ISM improved to 51.8 from 49.5 and other major measures all improved as well. Broadly, we expect the ISM-adjusted measure of all measures to pop to 52 for the month after holding at 49 in the two months prior. Eurozone Services PMI The Eurozone PMI Services PMI is also released today and no change to previous months 53.7 reading is expected. German figures are expected to remain resilient at 55.5 whilst French figures are expected to remain the weakest of the reporting countries at 51.2. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Stuart Cowell Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted April 6, 2016 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2016 Date : 6th April 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th APRIL 2016. Main Macro Events This Week FX News Today German Feb industrial production drops less than feared: Production correcting just 0.5% m/m from the rise in January, against expectations for a drop of around -2.0% m/m. Still, the January number was revised sharply down to 2.3% m/m from 3.3% m/m reported initially and the annual rate fell back in February. Together with the weaker than expected orders readings and mixed confidence data the outlook is for slowing growth in overall production and a general weakening of the growth trajectory as the improvement on the labour market peters out and the refugee crisis weighs on consumer confidence. European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed with Japan underperforming as a third consecutive dip in the leading indicator and a stronger Yen weighed on markets. Elsewhere stock markets started to stabilize and the front end Nymex futures climbed toward USD 37 per barrel. The EUR weakened, but remains clearly above 1.130 against the dollar. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index dropped -1.7% in March, a slight uptick from the -2.0% y/y in February. Still to come, there is central bank speak from the ECB and the Riksbank and Germany, Denmark, Sweden and Norway sell bonds, while Greece issues bills amid fresh Grexit concerns. US ISM-NMI March increased to 54.5: This was from a 53.4 two-year low that beat estimates and capped a four-month drop from a solid 58.3 as recently as October, versus a 59.6 ten-year high last July. The ISM-adjusted measure rose to 54.1 from 53.2 in February and a 53.1 two-year low in January, versus a 59.0 ten-year high last July. The ISM-NMI figures remain stronger than the factory sentiment readings likely because the service sector is benefiting from the boost to household purchasing power via lower gasoline prices, while the factory sector faces headwinds from an inventory overhang, weak foreign demand, restraint in the vehicle assembly rate, and a petro-sector recession. Given March strength in the factory sentiment figures, the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys popped to a surprisingly solid 53 in March from 49 in both January and February and 50 over the last four months of 2015, leaving the strongest average since the 53 figure in June and July of last year. US JOLTS report showed job openings fell 159k: 5,445k openings in February versus a revised 323k January gain to 5,604k (was 5,541k), though the January level was the 3rd highest of this cycle. The rate fell to 3.7% from 3.8%. Hiring rebounded 297k to 5,422k after diving 276k in January to 5,125k (revised from 5,029k). The rate rose to 3.8% versus 3.6% previously. Quitters increased 99k to 2,950k following the prior 237k decline to 2,851k (revised from 2,804k). The quit rate also rose to 2.1% from 2.0%. Main Macro Events Today FOMC Minutes The minutes to the March 17, 18 Fed meeting will be interesting for clues on the various outlooks of the Committee. However, Yellen’s dovish stance has usurped a lot of the importance of the minutes. Also, other Fedspeakers since the mid-March meeting have also let their feelings known, with even the more dovish members supporting expectations for 2 rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, data has revealed a slower Q1 economy, with our 2016 growth forecast now just 0.7%, with the Atlanta Fed at 0.4%. We know that in March, policymakers were contending with many uncertain and conflicting signals, as well as geopolitical concerns. Those factors left the FOMC on the sidelines, as they punted into Q2, although the economic projections for the year, along with inflation forecasts, were trimmed. Look for the minutes to largely underscore the various uncertainties domestically and around the world as the central reason for the unchanged policy stance. ECB Non-Monetary Policy MeetingThe Non-Monetary policy’s ECB meeting is this morning in Frankfurt. This is a monthly meeting and involves all 25 members of the governing council. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Stuart Cowell Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2016 Date : 17th MAY 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th MAY 2016. FX News Today Oil prices firmed over 3% to hit a peak of $48.16 bbl (at the time of writing), with gold prices hitting a high of $1,290. Oil was supported by a Goldman Sachs report that the oil market had shifted from a supply glut to a deficit earlier than expected. Oil prices in general markets have been supported over last few trading days by news of decreasing US production and output disruptions in Canada and Nigeria. The production cuts are helping to rebalance the global oil market awash with unwanted crude oil and pushing up prices almost 12% since the market rallied from my Buy Area published in the May 5th analysis on oil. A known gold bull John Paulson reduced his investments on the yellow metal while George Soros and other large investment funds increased their holdings in the metal for the first time in years. This was shown by filings on Monday. Reuters reports that New York-based hedge fund Paulson & Co, led by John Paulson, cut its investment in SPDR Gold Trust, the worlds biggest gold exchanged-traded fund (ETF), by 17 percent to 4.8 million shares, according to US Securities and Exchange Commission filings. RBAs May cut was driven by broad-based softening in inflation, even as the growth outlook remained largely steady, according to the meeting minutes. They had considered waiting for more information, but of course decided to cut 0.25% to 1.75%. Recall that the CPI fell in Q1, marking the first drop since 2008. Core CPI growth moderated to the slowest pace on record. And labour costs have been soft. The RBAs target band for underlying inflation is 2-3%, but they lowered it to 1-2% for 2016 in the forecasts released May 6. In our view, another rate cut is likely in June or August. US NAHB homebuilder sentiment was flat at 58 in May, holding at that relatively firm level for a fourth consecutive month. The current single family sales index was also unchanged at 63 after dipping 2 points to that level in April. The future sales index rose 3 points to 65 after inching up 1 point to 62 last month. The index of prospective buyer traffic was steady at 44. Builders cited the regulatory environment and low inventories as sources of restraint, according to the report, while low mortgage rates and a solid job market underpins. Main Macro Events Today UK Inflation April CPI: is expected unchanged at 0.5% y/y (median same) while core CPI is seen ebbing back to 1.4% y/y from 1.5% in March. This would closely fit BoE projections. PPI output prices are seen at -0.7% (median -0.8%) after -0.9% in March. However, with the BoE having stressed last week that economic and financial indicators are likely to be less informative than usual in light of the uncertainties being thrown up by approaching referendum on EU membership, the figures may not carry the usual potential to impact sterling markets. US Industrial Production: April industrial production should reveal a 0.3% increase on the month after dropping by 0.6% in both March and February. The capacity utilization rate should rise to 75.0% from 74.8% in March and 75.3% in February. Mining employment in the April report extended the run of recent weakness that the collapse in oil prices has driven and could lend some downside risk to the release. US CPI The April CPI: should reveal a 0.4% (median 0.4%) headline increase while the core rises by 0.2% (median 0.2%). This follows respective March figures which had the headline up 0.1% and the core up 0.1% as well. The declines in gasoline prices over the winter have weighed on price report headlines but we have seen some rebound in oil prices this spring which should begin to bring an end to this effect. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Janne Muta Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HFM Posted May 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted May 18, 2016 Date : 18th MAY 2016. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th MAY 2016. FX News Today European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south, as stronger than expected GDP data out of Japan cast doubt over hopes of further easing and a delay to the sales tax hike, which added to US rate hike bets. FTSE 100 futures are also down. Positive leads then for European bond markets, which already moved higher yesterday, although the 10-year Bund future lost some of its gains in after hour trade. Today’s data calendar brings the final reading of Eurozone April CPI, expected to be confirmed at -0.2% y/y, and UK labour market data. The April claimant count rate is seen steady at 2.1% and the ILO unemployment rate for March unchanged at 5.1% y/y. Earnings growth could show a slight deceleration in the rate excluding bonuses. Japan’s GDP grew 1.7% in Q1: This following the downward revised 1.7% drop in Q4 (was -1.1%). The magnitude of the increase in Q1 easily outpaced projections (we saw +0.5%), but did follow a hefty downward revision to Q4. While the return to growth dodged a technical recession, the detail suggest underlying momentum is lacking in the economy, despite years of Abenomics and aggressive easing from the BoJ. Notably, an extra day in February due to leap year boosted consumption relative to the previous quarter. Private consumption grew 0.5% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after contracting a revised 0.8% in Q4 (was -0.9%). Business spending took a disappointing turn, falling 1.4% (q/q, sa) in Q1 after a revised 1.2% gain in Q4 (was +1.5%). The yen is steady, with USDJPY at 109.20. Fedspeak: Fed’s Williams and Lockhart both noted June is a live meeting, in their comments at a Politico event. Both are doves, but have been noting the potential for further normalization this year, consistent with the FOMC’s projections of 2 25 bp hikes. Lockhart said it’s too early to draw conclusions about Q2 growth, but he wouldn’t take June off the table. Like several of his colleagues, he warns that the markets are more pessimistic than he is. Neither are voters this year. Fed moderate Kaplan said that the Fed should hike rates “in the not too distant future,” while he sees the household sector in good shape and forecasts a 2% rise in 2016 GDP, though still some slack in the labor force. Main Macro Events Today EMU CPI: We expect the headline rate to be confirmed at -0.2% (median same). The decline back into negative territory last month was partly due to special factors with the earlier timing of Easter meaning that holiday related prices, which picked up over Easter, fell back again in April. This distorts the annual rate somewhat and goes some way to explain the swings over the March/April period. In any case, the ECB has already reacted pre-emptively with the March set of easing measures and is now firmly in wait and see mode and focused on implementing what has already been announced, so that any revision won’t change the immediate rate outlook. FOMC Minutes: Published at 21:00 GMT and should make interesting reading as a number of officials want interest rate hikes as early as June or July, whereas the market is discounting this heavily with only 23% of investors expecting a hike in either month. As ever the words that are used and indeed not used will be scrutinized closely. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Chief Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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