Fort Financial Services Posted October 21, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 21, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 22.10.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure-the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at around 84.95 at the beginning of the week. There was not any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Traders are again trying to implement the corrective movement within the US dollar after the last US Fed protocol where it was pointed out the US dollar revaluation negative effects. Against this background the main dollar competitors were in demand during the day, but now it is still too early to talk about the 100% dollar correction. The last two weeks we noticed how bulls tried to disperse the quotes up several times and faced strong pressure from the bears part. It should also be noted the negative trend on the commodity market the CRB index finished the trading day in the "red zone" that is a positive factor for the dollar and will provide little support to it. We do not expect the important macroeconomic statistics. We should emphasize the real estate sales release in the US secondary market. The real estate market releases which we received at the end of last week point out to a demand recovery after the August recession and in this regard we can expect the data release at the forecasted medians level. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro fell at the end of the yesterday trades. Earlier the single European currency has strengthened against the US dollar. However, the euro achievements were not impressive as its price has remained in the consolidation range and the euro has not shown any new local highs. The long-awaited beginning of the ECB asset purchase program was treated by investors with almost complete indifference and had no effect on the market. Buyers can not break through above the strong resistance level of 1.2850 the second week. The long consolidation pointed to the clear price down rebound. The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2670. We do not exclude the level of 1.2600 retest. Pound (GBP) General overview The sterling had lost some positions. Before this the pound was in the great demand. The pound has grown more than any other majors against the US dollar. It is possible that these investors sentiment was amid the fact that the "cable" is now the most profitable currency and in the conditions of uncertainty is an attractive asset for the shorts. The downward trend line is broken upwards. It is a good signal for the further mid-term bearish trend reversal. However, the only thing that indicates the weakening buyers force is volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The level of 1.6180 retest may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the levels of support 1.6100, 1.6030. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar at the beginning of the trading day and declined at the second half of the day. As a result, the session within the pair USD/JPY was closed neutrally - on the opening prices. The causes of such a scenario could be events on the stock markets and the US market debts. The Nikkei index has risen nearly by 4.0% after reports that the Japan state pension investment fund plans to increase the share of Japanese equities in its portfolio to 25%, but was not supported by the events on the US and European stock markets, as, in general, by the "Treasuries ", profitability that fell slightly. The price is finding the first support at 106.30, the next one is at 105.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 106.70, the next one is at 107.10. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 107.10. Franc (CHF) General overview The frank is strengthening its position amid the general trend of the weakening dollar after the Sent Luis Fed President James Bullard said that the Fed should consider a possibility to delay the asset purchase program completion to counter the expected inflation reduction. Then the franc fell again. The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9330. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted October 23, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 23.10.2014 Fundamental analysis We still observe a flat within the major pairs in the Forex market. The lower inflationary pressure in the world's largest economies caught by surprise traders and now the asset managers cannot identify the most "weak link." On October 8 Federal Reserve pointed to the dollar revaluation the US consumer price index negative impact and the investors rushed to close longs within the US dollar. However, as we see, traders cannot still find the dollar alternative and on this background we have recently seen a side tendency. The trading day did not bring important macroeconomic statistics. The United States pleased investors with positive release sales in the secondary market. The sales rose by 2.4% in September that indicates the confident consumer demand. It is also necessary to emphasize the American stock market rapid growth - Apple reported the record profits for the 3rd quarter of this year that with the US positive macroeconomic statistics cheered bulls up to open longs. Against this positive background, the US dollar was able to strengthen against its major competitors. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro will be under the external information influence, first of all under the US inflation data. If the data shows the US price pressure growth, as, in general it is expected that will increase our confidence in the ECB and the Fed policy growth that will add pressure on the euro. The EUR/USD has broken through the lower uptrend boundary of 1.2730 that means the three-week correction turn in the long term. The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair consolidates first. The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2600, 1.2500. Pound (GBP) General overview The US good statistics was one of the main pound weakening reason. The technical factors influenced the pound as well. The growth was caused by the strong resistance level where the pair pound/dollar is now. The Bank of England last meeting minutes will be published where they discussed the monetary policy future. The pair GBP/USD is waiting the fundamental data. We expect one of the two important levels break through: 1.6180 and 1.6030 amid these data. The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180. There is weak sell signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward one. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We expect the level of 1.6030 break that will open the way to 1.5870. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen sales were caused by the price decrease on the Japan stock market where the Nikkei has lost about 2% .Then the technical factors and the US estate market sales strong data returned the pair growth - as a result the US dollar leveled the loss and got a slight "profit". The Japanese economic data showed a further deficit growth. The pair USD/JPY intends to break the strong resistance level of 107.10 for the third time. The previous two strong resistance level of 107.35 tests were followed by the price rebound down. The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations After the trend line 107.10 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance level of 107.60 is opened. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc retreated against the general dollar rise. The Switzerland trade balance data showed the $ 2.45 billion surplus. However, both exports (3.3%) and imports (7.4%) have fallen. The pair USD/CHF rebounded to 0.9535 and stabilized near the daytime highs. The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620. There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted October 24, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 24.10.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was able to strengthen its position against its major competitors despite the many investors expectations. The pair EUR/USD lost 0.4% at the end of the trading amid the CPI moderately positive data in the United States. The September inflation remained unchanged at the level of year -on -year 1.7% that is 0.1% better than the forecasted medians. We observed the US 10-year bond yields sharp increase against this background. The GBP/USD also remained under pressure during the day amid the Bank of England last meeting negative reports. There are still only two monetary control representatives Weal and McCafferty vote for a rate increase. The other IFA members hold more conservative views. The Bank of England is now focused on its main trading partner (the euro) problems, and therefore it expects the UK economic growth slowdown. The Japan trade balance poor statistics for September cheered bulls up within the pair USD/JPY for opening "longs". The September negative balance again increased due to the strong imports growth. Japanese exporters began to feel much better with the national currency devaluation in September. The US moderately positive statistics on inflation has increased the dollar demand. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The single European currency has survived another day of pressure against the US dollar. In early trading the dollar was strengthening amid the remained sentiments caused by information that the ECB intends to expand the range of assets purchases, then the European currency came under pressure after the US economic data release that confirm the inflation increase. The rising channel lower boundary 1.2730 breakthrough led to the euro three-week upward correction reversal against the dollar. The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.2600 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2500. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound came also under pressure against the dollar. The first reason for investors frustration is the Bank of England last meeting minutes. The "minutes" pointed to the British regulator tendency to soft policies and pushed the pair GBP/USD down. The sellers managed to break below the support level of 1.6100 amid the fundamental factors. The volumes indicate the clear bears weakening. But as the trade is still in the downtrend line direction - we cannot talk about the upward direction. The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5870. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen also fell against the dollar yesterday. The US information about consumer inflation was the main factor influencing the pair USD/JPY. Before this report publication the trades were in a narrow side range, and after the report publication the yen was in the sales wave and fixed its losses at the end of the trading day. The buyers came to the strong resistance level of 108.00 at the low volumes that has earlier bounced the price down. The consolidation below the strong resistance can cause a slight price decrease in the short term. The price is finding the first support at 107.10, the next one is at 106.70. The price is finding the first resistance at 107.60, the next one is at 108.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 107.10. The potential growth target is the resistance level of 108.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc fell against the dollar while the dollar index reached the one-week high after the US unexpected inflation increase in September. The price is finding the first support at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9430. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9620. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted October 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 28.10.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar weakened slightly against most of its competitors - the dollar index basket finished trading at around 85.71. The pair EUR/USD enjoyed a moderate demand. The traders ignored the positive data about the US new buildings sales in September that indicates traders are set to the euro/dollar upward movement. The last week commodities again showed a decline, but this factor did not support the US dollar demand. The UK GDP release for the 3rd quarter came in line with the traders expectations - 0.7%. Traders close short positions within the pair GBP/USD, as the negative data have already been laid in quotes - we have seen the pound sales for the last three days. At the moment the British currency quotes reached the level of 1.6095 and then we noted some technical rebound. The pair USD/JPY was under pressure, it was not able to finish the trading on a positive note. After the "bull rally" that we saw last week, traders partially took profits on "longs". Nevertheless, the bulls position is strong enough the world's leading stock markets ended the day with the quotations steady growth and with the US positive macroeconomic statistics will support the dollar demand in the short term. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro is under pressure after the EU representative Katainen said that Germany's potential growth rate was "too low". While earlier the ECB Governing Council member Noyer said that France and Italy were lagging behind with their reforms and the eurozone economy that has already completed reforms was growing. The three-day consolidation is at the support level of 1.2600 and has led to the price rebound upwards. The buyers corrected the euro to the strong resistance level of 1.2730 amid the low volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The downward bounce potential target is 1.2600. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound rose after the UK GDP data. However, the market is not in a hurry to fall into euphoria. Taking into consideration that the eurozone economic recovery is progressing very slowly and concerns about the US and China slowdown we can assume that the Bank of England will delay the first rate increase until the second half of 2015. It was earlier expected that the rates will be raised in February. The UK weak salary growth and absence of inflationary pressure makes the period of monetary policy easing by the Bank of England much longer. There was a short-term price rebound from the support level of 1.6030 that allowed the buyers to correct the price to the downward trend line of 1.6100. The corrective GBP growth is not supported by the trading volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The bears need to break below 1.6100 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.6030 will be opened after this breakthrough. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen rose for the first time for seven days on Friday against the US dollar after the reports that New York's physician was hospitalized with the Ebola diagnosis. The messages about the deadly disease in the US largest city provoked the safe assets demand growth. The US dollar growth against the Japanese yen has stopped above the resistance level of 108.00 and then the pair fell. The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the resistance at 108.50. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We expect the 107.10 line break that will open the way to 108.00, further then towards 108.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The franc partially compensated for the losses. The dollar has reduced its first weekly growth for the last three weeks against the basket of currencies on fears that the Ebola virus can affect the economy in the run-up to the Federal Reserve meeting next week. The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560. There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9560. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9620. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted October 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 29.10.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished trading at around 85.49. Despite the mixed news the pair EUR / USD finished the trading day in the "green zone". The October release by the IFO Institute came out worse than traders had expected, at the level of 103.2, showing a minimum value since December 2012. According to the press release the German economy is experiencing serious difficulties because of the world geopolitical tensions. The report about the changes in M3 money supply has been showing an upward trend for 4 months in a row in the euro area which is a positive factor for inflation. The ECB loose monetary policy is beginning to give the first results, but to talk about the CPI growth is now too early. However, traders opened "longs" to the single European currency, based on downward correction development after the US Federal Reserve meeting. The pair GBP/USD was in demand amid the profit-taking continuation on short positions and the UK positive macroeconomic statistics. According to the British industry confederation the October retail sales release is slightly better than market participants had expected that has been welcomed by traders amid the economic growth slowdown in the third quarter. However, it should be noted that the UK short and long term bond yields extension is a negative factor for the British currency that is now revalued. Traders continued to take profits on long positions in the pair USD/JPY. A similar action was also observed on the world's leading stock exchanges. During the day the pair dollar/yen has moderately declined and during the quotation it reached the mark of 107.60. There was no Japan and the US important macroeconomic statistics publication and against this background investors regained namely technical factors. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was treated differently at the trades - the single currency initially declined against the dollar, and then again grew, but as a result recorded a small "profit". The Germanys economic data, represented by the German Ifo institute, affected the euro but the US reports supported the single European currency. The trading slightly changed according to this instrument. The euro bulls continue to push the price up to the nearest resistance level of 1.2790 amid the reduced volumes. The testing level for its strength will be during the fundamental data release. The price is finding the first support at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2790, the next one is at 1.2850. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is on the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.2670, 1.2600. Pound (GBP) General overview The pair GBP/USD, grew up at the yesterday's trading amid the weak activity. There was no reason for the pound sales and the UK economic statistics did not give any neutral information, the weak US economic data supported both the cable and the euro. The corrective pound growth is low against the US dollar. Buyers has broken through and fixed above the downward trend line of 1.6100 at the low volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6030. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6180, the next one is at 1.6270. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations If the price fixates below the support level of 1.6030, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5950. Yen (JPY) General overview We expect important events for this week that reflected on the yesterday's pair dollar/yen trading. In this case, besides the FOMC meeting results, investors are waiting for more solutions with the similar Japans meetings (where the monetary policy destiny is decided) and in a given situation investors decided to correct position and fix some profits that led to the dollar decline against the Japanese yen. The trade is in the upward direction within the Japanese yen. The corrective price decline for three days is observed without the volume support. The price is finding the first support at 107.60, the next one is at 107.10. The price is finding the resistance at 108.50. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target are 108.00, 108.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The market is expecting the key week events the US FOMC meeting that ends today explains the lack of activity. The low dollar sales were a topic of the US news, pointing to the US uneven housing market recovery and the economic activity slowdown in Texas. The property purchase signed contracts rose in the secondary market in September after the August decline, but was significantly lower than it was expected. The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted October 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 30.10.2014 Fundamental analysis We observe a bearish sentiment within the US dollar - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished trading at around 85.36. The pair EUR / USD has been on a positive note for three trading days in a row. The pair sharply fell on yesterday trades. Traders' attention was focused on the US release. A report on the consumer durable goods orders came out worse than the forecasted medians in September, showing a 1.3% decline while we were observing the consumer confidence positive data by the Conference Board. The pair GBP/USD enjoyed a moderate demand during the day amid the short positions opening within the US dollar along the entire market. The consumer confidence release by the Conference Board rose to 94.5 in October, showing multi-year highs amid the employment growth in the United States, thus freezing bulls enthusiasm within the British currency. The bulls are returning to the equity markets that supports the pair USD/JPY demand. The US stock market is rapidly developing; the high-tech index Nasdaq is the growth leader that shows us the strong bullish trend. Against this background, even the US negative release on consumer durable goods orders could not spoil the bullish sentiment and after the quotations reduction to the mark of 107.70 we observed the pair strong demand and the position recovery. The pair sharply increased at the end of the yesterday trades. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The current sentiment on the single European currency can hardly be called positive, but the "bears" do not hurry to resume active operations. We got the disappointing data from France the consumer confidence in the second eurozone economy fell by one point in October this year. The French consumer confidence index dropped from 86 points to 85 points. The interviewed economists assumed that the rate would remain unchanged at the level of 86 points. The pair euro/dollar came close to the downward trend line of 1.2730 and fell down. The price is finding the first support at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2730, the next one is at 1.2790. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations If the price falls below the level of 1.2670 the downward movement will be continued. Pound (GBP) General overview The pair GBP/USD tried to fall below 1.6100 amid the UK weak data and still remains there. The mortgages approvals came weaker than it had expected from 61 267 to 62 250. The money supply was also weaker than it had expected - at -0.7% vs. 0.5%, reflecting the lower price pressure. The pair GBP/USD failed to update the last week maximum level of 1.6180. The price is finding the first support at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6100, the next one is at 1.6180. There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is falling. Trading recommendations The level of 1.6100 testing may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.6030, 1.5950. Yen (JPY) General overview After the US consumer confidence data the dollar/yen is trading with 0.15% decrease. The world stock markets growth is still keeping - the Japanese Nikkei stock index rose by 0.74%. The investors ignored the sharp industrial production recovery in Japan that rose by 2.7% in September in comparison with August against the expected 2.2% growth. The USD/JPY was consolidating below the strong resistance level of 108.00 and then it grew. The pair closed the trades above the resistance level of 108.50. The price is finding the first support at 108.00, the next one is at 107.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 108.50, the next one is at 109.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 109.00. After breaking 109.00 the buyers may go to 109.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The US currency raised at the end the yesterday trades. Earlier the franc rose against the dollar after the mixed US data. The published report showed that the consumer confidence index rose to 94.5 pp in October against the expected level of 87 pp. The previous value was revised to 89.0 pp (from 86.0 pp). The price is finding the first support at 0.9430, the next one is at 0.9370. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9500, the next one is at 0.9560. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target - 0.9430. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9370. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted October 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 31.10.2014 Fundamental analysis The day was marked by an increased volatility - traders delayed the two-day meeting announcement by the US Federal Reserve. The monetary regulator announced the QE-3 program completion as it was expected. The Fed repeated a familiar phrase to all investors about the need to keep rates low for an "extended period of time". The short-term inflationary forecast remains negative because of the lower energy price and other factors. The monetary regulator did not explain what these factors could be. It is quite possibly be the dollar revaluation; however, the monetary authorities have not answered. The labor market progress was not reviewed - the Fed pointed to the steady employment growth that in future can contribute to the rapid rates increase. As traders did not hear the phrase that monetary authorities are concerned about the "strong dollar" - they hurried back to the market and began to buy the US currency. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The dollar perspectives are improving besides the weak euro zone economic indicators that triggered expectations for the additional monetary policy easing measures by the ECB, thereby putting pressure on the pair EUR/USD. The dollar rose to the current session beginning after the US Federal Reserve expressed optimism about the employment situation. The optimistic perspectives assessment surprised the market that led to the short positions closure within the dollar. The price is finding the first support at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2500. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2670, the next one is at 1.2730. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The downward movement is to be continued. The pair may go to 1.2500 soon. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK will present the housing price index for October. The pound tried to test the support level of 1.5950 after the disappointing British statistics publication. The approved mortgages applications showed the approvals reduced to 61.267K against 62.250K that confirms the real estate sector strength. As for the money supply data, the index fell by 0.7% against the forecasted 0.5% growth, indicating the weak price pressures. There was a rapid price rebound down from the downward trend line of 1.6180 acting as an inclined resistance line. Due to the active pound decrease against the US dollar, sellers were able to break through and consolidate below the strong support level of 1.6030. The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The price is going down. We expect the level of 1.5870 testing soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen continued to fall against the dollar. The US dollar can influence the exchange rate dynamics. Japan will publish the consumer inflation and the unemployment data for September. The buyers break through the strong resistance level of 108.50 upwards. The level breakthrough occurred amid the low volumes; however, the mark of 109.00 has been already overcome. The trading on the inside daily chart is still in the uplink channel direction. Therefore, the bullish trend is still relevant, despite such small growth volumes. The price is finding the first support at 109.00, the next one is at 108.50. The price is finding the resistance at 109.50. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The buyers need to break above 109.50 for a steady growth. Franc (CHF) General overview The pair dollar/franc will be trading in the higher range supported by a positive attitude towards the dollar, the Swiss currency sales with the declining pair franc/yen and the soft monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank. The October economic barometer KOF will be released in Switzerland. The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 05.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The trades opening gave us a hope that the beginning of the week would be in the volatile direction. The US dollar has sharply grown up against all of the major competitors after of the China manufacturing activity (PMI) indicator decrease to the 5- months low in October. However, the "bulls" call about the US dollar was developed only in the dollar dispute with the yen where the US dollar continued its growth formed by the Bank of Japan last Friday when it announced the easing program expansion. The trades against the European majors were reduced to the consolidation range and ended on the opening prices relative to the pound and with a very slight increase to the euro. The news calendar did not please the investors with any important information volumes - the activity index data (PMI) in Europe and the US was published and showed a good result. However, the short-term optimism caused by the UK information, was suppressed by the US reports that the prices returned to their original positions. The data published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported the activity growth in the US manufacturing sector in October. The PMI index has risen to the level of 59.0 after 56.6 in September when it was expected to see a slowdown to 56.0. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The single European currency held the trading against the dollar in the side consolidation and was closed with a minor plus at the end of the day. The technical factors presented by the strong support levels where the euro/dollar fell supported the euro. The bulls broke through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards within the euro in the short term. At this moment the insignificant breakthrough is not supported by the trade volumes. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to short with the first target 1.2500. After fixing below the first target, the level 1.2400 will become the next one. Pound (GBP) General overview The beginning of the week was negative for the British pound the pound fell against the dollar under the sentiment pressure caused by the China news. However, the British currency leveled all the losses during the trades and even some time it rose against the dollar. The good cable sentiment provided the UK economic data that announced the indicator activity result in the UK manufacturing sector. At the moment the price is between two important levels of 1.6030 - 1.5950. The breakthrough of one will be a good signal for the trade in the breakthrough direction. The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The trend is going downwards. After the trend line 1.5950 breakthrough the way to the support 1.5870 will be opened. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen sales were continued, despite the fact that it was a day off because of the holiday in Japan on Monday. The BoJ statement on Friday expressed even more clearly the contrast between the Japan monetary policy and the US regulators that reinforced and supports the dollar growth impulse against the Japanese yen. In addition, the Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) supports the yen sales about the fact that it plans to increase significantly the foreign stocks share in their portfolio, and it is a negative factor for the Japanese currency. The growth rates fell in the area round the resistance level 114.20, of which at this time formed a downward pullback. At the same time the formed correction was also not supported by volumes. The price is finding the first support at 113.00, the next one is at 112.50. The price is finding the resistance at 114.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 112.50 leads to a price rebound upwards. The upward bounce potential target is 114.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The franc continued to consolidate against the dollar amid the speculations that the solid economic data increases the probability of beginning interest rates process in the United States in the middle of next year. The pair slightly declined at the end of the trades. The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9620. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9680. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 06.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The market has likely taken a waitand-see position, expecting the end of the week when the reports about the European Central Bank decision and the US labor market situation will be published. In this regard, we again observed the weak lateral trade at the auction where the dollar was sold, taking profit on the previously open positions. It is clear that investors have taken a pause and quite reasonably considering the possible new targets emergence after these important events. In addition, one reason for the dollar sale could be the US economic news that showed a negative change. The US news will issue the data that can provide guidelines on the labor market situation in October the ADP report about the work places in the private sector is supposed to be seen with the 220 thousand increase after the earlier 213 thousand. This result will be the dollar support if it is confirmed by the forecasts. The October PMI data about the non business sector by the International Governance Institute (ISM) is less optimistic where the slowdown to 58.0 from 58.6 is possible while the overall index level is still high. It is quite possible that we will observe the range trading at the session today. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The attitude towards the euro has changed; the euro has grown against the dollar and other competitors. Perhaps, besides the investors desire to take profits on the short positions within the euro in advance of the ECB meeting closure, the EU economic data presented by the Eurozone prices dynamics report supported the euro. However, the European currency fell at the end of the trades. Buyers have broken through the strong resistance level of 1.2500 upwards. The level breakthrough was amid the reduced volumes and price bounced down, breaking through the level backwards. The price is finding the support at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The MACD indicator is oversold. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.2600 may lead to a price rebound down. However the price action does suggest that the potential rebound target is the support level of 1.2400. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound spent the day in the very narrow side corridor. The pair attempted to decrease, but returned to the opening prices. Obviously, this situation might be explained by the UK weak news and pending the Bank of England meeting release that will be published on Thursday. The fifth consecutive day the British Pound is trading below the strong resistance level of 1.6030. The short-term tests are followed by the small prices rebound downwards to the support level of 1.5965. The price is finding the first support at 1.5950, the next one is at 1.5870. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.6030, the next one is at 1.6100. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The nearest target remains the level of 1.6030. If successful, it is expected to fall to the level of 1.5950 and 1.5870. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar growth continued against the yen. The pair stopped in a no-mans land. Earlier the Japanese yen also strengthened against the US dollar. In fact, in this case there was a profit taking on the important week events expectations. However, today the yen is again under pressure at the session caused by the Bank of Japan head H. Kuroda who made it clear about intentions to continue easing for the economy stimulation and, on the other hand, the reports about the Republicans winning the elections. The formed consolidation at the level of 113.50 was followed by the price rebound upwards with the further local maximum price updating at the level of 114.60. The local maximum updating allowed buyers to touch to the resistance level of 114.60. The price is finding the first support at 113.50, the next one is at 112.60. The price is finding the resistance at 114.60. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We do not have targets upwards. The visible mark the price can bounce further is 114.60 Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar-franc closed the trades on the opening prices. Earlier the dollar fell against the Swiss franc as traders close positions in advance of the two main events this week: the ECB meeting today and the US employment report on Friday. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9680. Should that level break down, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 07.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The European Commission forecast has been revised downwards in terms of the euro zone economic growth in 2014, but the euro dynamics remained practically unchanged and then some experts have concluded that there would not be negative trends in the euro zone economy, the ECB would not apply the additional incentive measures. Perhaps it is so. However, the euro managed to lose about 100 points and before the meeting outcome announcement the market will decide whether it was a reaction to the weak service sector business activity data in October or to the significant retail sales decline or to the fact that we expect that Draghi will announce the additional measures. The Eurozone currency updated lows. Earlier the euro managed to win back some losses amid the Narayana Kocherlakotys unexpected statements, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis who had paid his attention to the US inflation low rate and told the possible Fed rate increase was inappropriate in 2015. Without any doubt, Kocherlakota knows what he is speaking about, because the US economy still needs stimulation despite the vigorous officials speeches. We expect quite good UK news. Besides the Bank of England meeting, traditionally held synchronously with the ECB, both the industrial production and the manufacturing industries data for September will be published, and the HBOS housing price index. It must be said that the confident speeches in the first half of the year left no trace and the market is not worried about the fact when the Bank of England plans tightening monetary policy. The market knows that it will not happen in the short term and the meeting will unlikely lead to the significant pound movements. Nevertheless, the pair is again testing new minimum mark. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The new ECB stimulus probability rose after the euro zone economic growth weak data release and the Bank of Japan unexpected decision to stimulate actively the economy. The sellers have broken through the support level of 1.2500 downwards for the second time and there has been observed the decrease to the level of 1.2400. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The nearest target remains the support level 1.25. If the price fixates below the resistance level of 1.2500, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 1.2300, 1.2200. Pound (GBP) General overview "The British" fell in yesterday trades. Earlier the British pound was able to compensate most of the losses, provoked by the weak national statistics. The previous manufacturing activity publication was strong, but the construction sector state indicators have disappointed investors. The British pound updated lows at the level of 1.5870. The price has been reduced under this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The price keeps going down. The pair now seems to be heading towards its immediate support near 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen almost fell to the seven year low against the dollar after the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda said that it had not seen any limits for the fight with deflation. He also said that he had seen no limitations in the means that the central bank could use for this purpose. The price had found the strong resistance at the level of 114.60. The US dollar decrease against the Japanese yen is amid the increased volume. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows show a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 115.80. We dont exclude a larger bullish correction soon. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar has strengthened its position against the Swiss franc after the positive US labor market data release. The number of employees in the US private sector by ADP in October amounted 230K, vs. 220K. The data were positive for the dollar because of some extent they confirm the Feds clear optimistic sentiment at the end of the FOMC last meeting. The price is finding the first support at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9620. The price is finding the resistance at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 10, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis10.11.2014Fundamental analysisThe last week ended with the dollar strengthening against its competitors in the financial markets. The ECB and the Bank of England monetary policy decision that was announced on Thursday, met our forecasts, the changes were not made, but the market reacted to these results by the dollar large-scale buying. Obviously, the investors regarded the BoE inactivity as the fears acknowledgement that the UK economic recovery had slowed down; there is a risk to return the downtrend and in these circumstances, the regulator does not intend to tighten the policy.As for the ECB, the signaling point for the market was the M. Draghi’s press conference that reaffirmed the European Central Bank decision to increase the quantitative easing volumes.The US economic data were scarce, but they were on the dollar side - the initial jobless claims fell immediately by 10 thousand last week while we expected the data would be significantly less positive, only two thousand. This information could also support the dollar as to some extent it added confidence that the coming labor report would note good results. According to our forecasts the employment statistics will announce its growth by 233/230 thousand of work places in the US non-agricultural sector and the US unemployment rate retention at the level of 5.9%. If the fact does not meet our expectations for the worst, the dollar demand will remain at the high level.Technical analysisEuro (EUR)General overview The single European currency could recover a few. Earlier the euro continued to decline against the dollar and fell to the new local lows. The reports that the European Central Bank left its key interest rate at the record low level of 0.05%, initially supported the euro, but the M. Draghi’s press-conference changed the market sentiment and the euro was in the sales wave. The support level of 1.2400 was broken through. The level breakthrough was amid the high volumes. The pair failed to consolidate below and returned to the position above this support. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The potential decrease targets are the two levels of support: 1.2400 and 1.2300.Pound (GBP)General overview The pound slightly rose against the dollar. Earlier the British pound fell. The Bank of England has not changed the monetary policy parameters- the refinancing rate remained at the level of 0.5% and the bond purchases program is in the amount of 375 billion of British pounds. However, it was considered by the market as the reason for the pound decrease and put some pressure on the "cable". Sellers have managed to break through the support level of 1.5870 for the second time. The level breakthrough was amid the high volumes. The pair is testing the level of 1.5870 from the bottom. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.3670.Yen (JPY)General overview The pair dollar/yen tried to continue its growth on the common sentiment for the "dollar", but its attempts were broken off amid the Japan stock market quotations decrease where the Nikkei fell by almost 1%. The dollar/yen managed to break the level of 114.60 upwards and consolidate above. Currently the pair is testing the support level of 114.60. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.Trading recommendations The pair is close to the strong resistance 115.80. The price rebounds from this mark.Franc (CHF)General overview According to the latest forecasts in the world's largest economy there were created 235,000 new work places in comparison with the average growth rate of 226.670 last year. At the same time the unemployment rate is likely to remain at the level of 5.9%. The dollar has increased by 8% for the last three months that was the best result among the ten major currencies of more economically developed countries. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 11, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis11.11.2014Fundamental analysisThe week beginning was noted by the some dollar recovery against all majors. The Friday trade results were not on the US dollar side. The dollar fell against all of its major competitors after the US employment data partially met our expectations. In general, the employment report result was not bad - the unemployment rate fell in October to 5.8% against 5.9% in September as we had not expected the changes and the number of part-time workers and those who have no hope in finding a job, reduced by 0.3%. The new September workplace data was revised upwards. However, the October new workplace growth came out much worse than it had been expected amounting 214 thousand instead of 233 thousand that confused the market and provoked the US dollar sales.Moreover, it seems that the technical factors have put some pressure on the dollar as the levels where the main pairs are now are distinguished by the strong support/resistance which with the obvious dollar overbought was able to increase the profit fixation on the previous open long positions within the dollar.With regard to the dollar perspectives, the less strong job growth has not changed the market preferences and the "bullish" attitude towards the dollar. However, the absence of important events in the US as well as in other regions can support the correction that began last Friday and then the week trades will be in ranges.Technical analysisEuro (EUR)General overview The euro fell sharply at yesterday's trading. The attitude towards the euro was changed last week - buyers started to buy the European currency and at the end of the Friday it strengthened against the dollar and other majors. Obviously, the euro overbought reached the level that prompted investors to the correction, all the more that the US statistics gave rise to the emotional reaction against the dollar, showing the October work places increase data worse than it had been forecasted. We observe the upper bound testing of the downtrend channel at the level of 1.2500. The price exit from the channel limits opens the way to the resistance level of 1.2500 in the long term. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.Trading recommendations We suppose the pair will go to 1.2400 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.2300.Pound (GBP)General overview The sterling fell slightly against the dollar yesterday. The British pound also grew against the dollar on Friday on the common emotions caused by the US economic data. However, the pound rise was less energetic in comparison with the euro one; the UK economic data could slow it down. The week news is not rich in the number of messages, but the important and influential information will be sufficient. The statistical data can support the pound. The consolidation led to the correctional growth above the level of 1.5870. The pair then declined and closed trades below this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.Trading recommendations The price is core trend. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon.Yen (JPY)General overview The dollar began to fight for its position against the Japanese currency. A pessimism towards the dollar became evident on Friday and the US dollar declined at the end of the trading day within the pair USD/JPY. The US dollar sales for the yen began after the US labor market report, some of which contained information about the forecasts failure. The Bank of Japan minutes and the Institute president H. Kuroda’s speech showed a clear intention to maintain the easing policy and increase incentives if required. Buyers twice tried to get closer to 115.80 resistance, but without success. There was the price rebound downwards. The price rebound from the level allowed sellers to get out of the rising channel. The pair showed some growth and closed the trading day above the level of 114.60 yesterday. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.Trading recommendations The pair can grow to the resistance level of 115.80.Franc (CHF)General overview The dollar increased against the Swiss franc. Earlier the franc sharply strengthened on Friday. The dollar showed the maximum fall for the last three weeks after the employment report publication was slightly worse than the average forecasts amid the discussions about the fact when the Fed will raise the interest rates from the record lows. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.Trading recommendations We advise to long with the first target - 0.9750.*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. 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Fort Financial Services Posted November 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 12.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The new week was opened by the attempts to continue the dollar sales on the sentiment formed by the US labor report that was published last Friday. However, the success was not long on the "bears" side within the dollar, the levels where the US dollar had fallen turned out to be attractive for purchases and investors began to stock up the long positions volumes within the dollar. As a result, the Monday's session ended with the dollar strengthening against all the major competitors. The US news was not published on Monday. However, the yesterday's trades ended with the dollar weakening. We expect the NFIB small business sentiment report, it is considered that the optimism index rose to 95.5 vs. 95.3 in October that is a positive factor for moods within the dollar, but most of all it will not provoke reactions and increased volatility on the market. Apparently, this session will be marked by the weak range trading as the previous one. The US GDP showed its growth in the third quarter. The service sector has shown an increase in the workplaces by 181 thousand. It is worth noting that service sector includes 52 thousand from the recreational sphere. The processing industry has increased the workplaces by 15 thousand. The US population share in the so-called labor force showed an increase from 62.7% to 62.8% in October this year. The 62.7% index for September 2014 corresponds to the minimum indicator in February 1978. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro held the Tuesday trading in the narrow side corridor and at the end of the session rose against the dollar. Earlier the euro fell amid the European news as the US news was lack of important information and the euro was under pressure due to the last events the less strong US labor report as well as the medium-level sentiment, preserving the dollar demand. The resistance level short term test of 1.2500 was followed by the price rebound downwards. The US dollar continued to strengthen against the euro amid the low volumes. The rebound from the resistance level of 1.2500 has led to the descending channel formation. The price decreased to the level of 1.2400. The buyers again corrected the price to the level of 1.2500. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.2400 soon. Pound (GBP) General overview The British pound also spent the yesterday's trading in the side trade. The general market sentiment was influenced by the GBP/USD which decreased in the early session and then rose that resulted in the pound strengthening at the end of the day. The resistance level short break of 1.5870 was followed by the reverse price return above this mark. The reverse price return above the level of 1.5870 allowed the buyers to lower the price to the resistance level of 1.5950. The trading volumes are at the lows, besides today we expect the fundamental data releases. We expect a consolidation below the support level of 1.5950 in the short term. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview The USD/JPY trades showed a different directional movement, ended by the yen victory at the end of the trading day. Besides the general market sentiment, the pair dynamics was influenced by the events in the Japan stock market and in the US government debt market. The Nikkei fall provoked the risk avoidance and the yen strengthening at the beginning of the day, but the US "Treasuries" bond yields growth led to the dollar support in the US session. The short-term correction to the support level of 114.60 was followed by the price rebound upwards. Despite the reduced volumes, the buyers returned the price back to the resistance level of 115.80 where the price rebounded in the opposite direction. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the resistance at 115.80. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations If the price breaks 114.60 down it will open the way to the level of 113.50. Franc (CHF) General overview The dollar again began to lose ground after a slight increase. Earlier the dollar recovers its positions after the short recession caused by the US labor report publication. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. 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Fort Financial Services Posted November 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 13.11.2014 Fundamental analysis We again observed the volatile range trading on the currency market yesterday. The major pairs remained in the side corridors that had been formed earlier, only this time the US dollar rose at the end of the trading day. The exceptions were the events against the dollar and the yen; in this case the dollar has reached the new local maximum and has closed trades with a profit. It is difficult to say what caused the dollar decrease earlier that mainly occurred in the US session. Perhaps, the absence of the news "irritants and the speech by the Boston Fed president Rosengren influenced the market sentiment, who told during the interview with media that the US central bank should refrain from raising interest rates until the inflation target level returned to the Federal Reserve target level defined at the level below 2%. It seems that there will not be large-scale changes in the currency market - the dollar will likely trade in the same way against the euro and the yen, but it is possible the volatility increase in the pair pound/dollar because there will be much important and influential information in the UK. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro has consolidated against the dollar. There were no events that could support the euro and its interest could be based on the technical factors and the US Central Bank speeches. Moreover, the EU authoritative analysts statements could be a reason for the increasing pressure on the European currency. The trend is expected to go downwards according to this instrument in the medium-term. The correctional growth price continuation is expected in the short term. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downtrend movement and form a Golden Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.2500. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 1.2600. Pound(GBP) General overview The British pound has sharply fallen against the dollar. Obviously, the market was guided by the technical factors and the US news. We expect the UK employment data and the inflation report by the Bank of England which will be commented by the institution president M.Karni at the press conference. The key resistance for bears is the downward trend line of 1.5950, from which the pair rebounded downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The trend is a core sided. We expect the level of 1.5660 testing soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen fell against the dollar on the yesterday trades. The Japan stock market events where the Nikkei grew by 2% and then the rumors that the next Japan sales tax increase may be postponed to the later date put some pressure on the yen. At the beginning of the week buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 114.60. The level breakthrough was amid the low volumes and led to a consolidation. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 115.80, the next one is at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 117.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc rose before the referendum, scheduled on the November 30 after which the gold reserves increase in the ratio of 20% to the foreign exchange reserves from the current 8% can be required from the Swiss regulator. It may complicate the National Bank work in control over the exchange rate. In this case the regulator will be given five years to increase gold reserves to the required levels. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9620. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9560. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 14.11.2014 Fundamental analysis There was the volatility growth within the major pairs yesterday. The pair EUR/USD ended the trading day in the "red zone" amid the empty macroeconomic calendar. The oil quotes reduction contributed to the US dollar rise during the day. The bond market dynamics also supported the dollar demand on Wednesday we observed the German and the USA yields spread extension. As we noted in our previous review - the Bank of England negative inflation report will encourage bears to open short positions within the pair GBP/USD. The monetary regulator lowered both the GDP growth and inflation estimation for the next two years. We expect to achieve the 2% target inflation by the end of 2017 that greatly upset the currency market participants. Against this negative background, traders hurried to get rid of pounds that lost 0.85% after the trades. We observe the steady uptrend within the pair USD/JPY and we do not see any reasons for its failure. The dollar feels quite at ease and bulls use the short-term quotations decrease to increase the "longs". We observed the technical correction in the US and Japan stock markets and against this background the pair dollar/yen quotes fell to the level of 114.88 after that we again saw the US dollar demand yesterday. Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was trading in the narrow side corridor and finally fixed the negative result against the dollar. There were some eurozone economic data that have shown the positive result, but it was not enough to give the euro solid support. The consolidation continuation was a good signal for the prices rebound downwards. Moreover, buyers were not able to lift the price above the level of 1.2500 and this level testing was unsuccessful. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement and form a Golden Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations The potential rebound target are the support levels of 1.2400 and 1.2300. The potential decrease target is the support level of 1.2200. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK economic data have shown the labor market positive results, but the inflation report and the BoE M.Karnis comments caused a pessimism wave and provoked the pressure increase on the pound which fell against the dollar to the new local low and ended the trades with significant losses. The British pound broke through and fixed below the strong support level of 1.5870. The level breakthrough was amid the GBP high volatile news. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the downward trend line 1.5660. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen was traded against the dollar in the side consolidation and closed the session with small losses. Obviously, the pair little activity was the result of the different rumors related to the Japan fiscal policy that decide the sales tax fate, the possible early parliament elections and also amid the neutral events in the stock markets. There was the support level of 115.80 testing. It was amid the low volumes and failed to break above this level. The price is consolidating below this level. The price is finding the first support at 114.60, the next one is at 113.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 115.80, the next one is at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a Golden Cross. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations After the trend line 115.80 breakthrough upwards the way to the resistance 117.00 will be opened. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc strengthened slightly against the dollar. The Swiss National Bank president, Jordan said that the adoption of the so-called Save Our Swiss Gold initiative would be a "fatal error of judgment and would complicate the central bank work. In the center of this popular legislative initiative is the requirement to prohibit the Swiss National Bank from selling its gold reserves. In addition, the initiative requires that one fifth of the Swiss Central Bank foreign exchange reserves would be translated into the pure gold. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a Dead Cross. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 18.11.2014 Fundamental analysis We observed volatility spikes within the major pairs last Friday that continued on the yesterday trades. After the moderately positive euro zone GDP data the EUR/USD reached the mark of 1.2550 from which the pair fell. The economic growth showed 0.2% in the 3rd quarter instead of the expected 0.1%. However, traders ignored this report amid the US strong economic growth, but economic growth in the Old World has not led to sustainable development. The US positive macroeconomic statistics will allow the euro/dollar to test 24th figure. Both releases from the United States pleased traders with the positive data and at the moment of quotes reached the level of 1.2455. The pair GBP/USD has started the trading week at the minimum value over the past 13 months. The Bank of England inflation release that was published on Wednesday 12 November has sent the pound to knockout. We have watched both the pair GBP/USD reduction and the UK and the US negative bond yields expansion for the last three trading days of the last week. The US positive macroeconomic retail sales and the consumer confidence statistics by the Institute of Michigan has only reinforced the "bearish rally" within the British pound and at the moment of quotes reached the mark of 1.5720 after which the pair decreased back to the minimums. The United States pleased traders with the positive macroeconomic statistics. The October retail sales rose by 0.3% while the consumer confidence indicator by the Institute of Michigan showed maximum values in July 2007. The increased consumer confidence is laying a strong foundation for strong economic growth in the 4th quarter of the current year. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro continues its downward movement after a slight correction. Earlier the euro demand has grown that allowed the European currency to finish trades with a profit against the dollar. This point is attributed to the US inflation perspectives that reduce our confidence in the US rate increase any time soon. However, the technical factors were a more serious as that triggering increased tendency to lock in profits on the long dollar positions. Buyers corrected the euro/dollar amid the low volumes to the downward trend line of 1.2500. The downward trend line of 1.2500 is a key resistance for the bearish trend. The price could not fix above this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the downward trend lines 1.2400, 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound sales were continued and the overall session result was negative for the "cable". The negative sentiment was formed by the Bank of England quarter inflation report that was published last Wednesday and showed the inflation forecasts decrease and the UK economic growth. There was a rapid price rebound from the support level of 1.5600 upwards. The rebound was followed by the increased volume. Nevertheless the pair fell below this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.5870 may lead to the price rebound down. Yen (JPY) General overview The Japanese yen declined against the dollar at the yesterday trades. The attitude towards the yen remained under the BoJ recent decision influence to increase the easing program volumes. However, the pair USD / JPY demand has reduced. The corrective price decline was formed. Then the pair continued the upward movement. The price is finding the first support at 115.80, the next one is at 114.60. The price is finding the resistance at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 117.00. Franc (CHF) General overview The US dollar is strengthening in almost all the currency market instruments. We still expect the trends change and of course the most comfortable trend change will lead to another dollar high formation. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 19.11.2014 Fundamental analysis We have observed the profit taking continuation on long positions within US dollars. At the moment of quotation the pair EUR/USD reached the level of 1.2540, the pair GBP/USD is consolidating around the level of 1.5660 and the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 116.70. After that the US dollar once again strengthened its position. The commodity and the bond market dynamics indicate that the institutional investors continue to open "longs" within the dollar. Particularly the strong government bond yield spreads expanded within the pairs GBP/USD and USD/JPY that confirms the current trends stability within these instruments. We should also speak about the Japanese yen. The Japan's GDP release for the third quarter pointed out to the technical recession that the yen weakening. And now the Japan financial authorities suggest that the sales tax rates increase from April was a mistake. In this connection, we can expect the further Japanese yen decrease. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview We expect be the positive European news. The Germany ZEW business sentiment is expected to rise up from 3.6 to 0.9 points in November and the eurozone sentiment is expected to grow from 4.1 to 4.3 points. The pair EUR/USD rebounded from the downward trend line of 1.2435 upwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The upward bounce potential target is 1.2600. If the price falls it will get to 1.2400, the next target is 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The UK will publish inflation release that is a very important and influential data. According to the forecasts the October consumer price index (CPI) remained unchanged at the level of 1.2% y/y, the benchmark (Core CPI) has probably raised up to 1.6% y/y from 1.5% y/y that if it impresses the market, it will be likely negative for the pound. The pair GBP/USD is consolidating near the upper bound of the downtrend channel of 1.5660. The price is finding the first support at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5870. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations The trend is going down. We expect the level of 1.5550 testing soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar is stable near the seven-year highs against the yen amid the growing expectations that the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will announce the early elections and will postpone the planned sales tax rise, the next day when the data showed that the economy turned towards recession. The Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter by the year-on-year 1.6% in comparison with the growth forecast by 2.5%. The price is finding the first support at 115.80, the next one is at 114.60. The price is finding the resistance at 117.00. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The potential growth target is the resistance level of 117.00. Franc (CHF) General overview According to the US base producer price index for October is expected to increase by 0.2%, the overall index is expected to decline by 0.1%. The housing market business activity for October by NAHB is expected to grow from 54 to 55. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9750. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9560. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9500. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 20.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The US dollar was under pressure yesterday. The pair EUR/USD was in demand during the day amid the positive release from the ZEW institute. The business sentiment rose to 11.5 in Germany that is the highest value over the past three months. The positive expectations about the German economy perspectives greatly encourage us, but we should not deceive ourselves - the trend is still negative and we should see a series of positive data. The neutral bond market news also contributed to the euro purchase. The pound was showing an upward trend during the day. The UK consumer price index has coincided with the forecast, showing an increase by 0.1% and at the same time the PPI rate has slightly decreased. The main reason for the inflation increasing became tariffs for the transport services. Nevertheless, the US and UK negative yield spreads held bulls back from the opening long positions. Traders have virtually ignored the inflation data and during the day we saw a flat within the pair GBP/USD. Nevertheless the pair grew. The economic instability provided the political instability in Japan. "Abenomics" is under pressure and, in this regard, the Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the early elections and suspended the sales tax increase for 18 months. The pair USD/JPY reached the mark of 117.06 against this negative background, then we again saw profit-taking on long positions, allowing the yen to recover some lost ground. However, the US stock market growth encouraged bulls again for the "longs" opening. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro continued to strengthen its position. The better ZEW report for November in comparison with the forecasts supported the euro. The Germany and the EU data unexpectedly exceeded forecasts, showing the economic sentiment growth up to 11.5 pp and 11.0 pp respectively. The trading volumes continue to decline downwards both with the corrective growth and with the trade price within the trend. The bearish trend potential is still in force. The price is finding the first support at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2400. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2600, the next one is at 1.2670. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing. Trading recommendations The price is likely to go to the support levels of 1.2400, 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The Bank of England's last meeting monetary policy minutes will not cause a strong reaction on the traders part this time. We received a quarterly inflation report the last week where the monetary authorities indicated all the key guidelines. In this regard, the traders will focus their attention on the Fed minutes publication. There was formed the quite strong divergence within the pound on the trading volumes. The downward trend is not supported by sellers and is gradually losing steam. The pair slightly corrected. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.5660, 1.5550 soon. Yen (JPY) General overview The yen suffered losses against the euro and the dollar after the Japan Prime Minister Abe announced the early parliamentary elections and postponed the planned sales tax increase. This fact proves that the government is aware that the third world economy is not in the great shape and intends to take the additional stimulating measures. The dollar continues to strengthen against the Japanese yen. The upward trend is on the declining volumes. Technically the yen demand is gradually weakening. The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing. Trading recommendations We expect the 118.00 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss franc rose against the dollar after the US statistics publication. The data showed that the US producer price index rose 0.2% in October while analysts expected a decline by 0.1%. The figure rose by 1.5% in annual terms that is higher the forecast by 1.3%. The price is finding the first support at 0.9560, the next one is at 0.9500. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9680. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing. Trading recommendations We recommend going short with the first target - 0.9500. When the price consolidates below the first target it may go to the level 0.9430. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 25, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis 25.11.2014 Fundamental analysis The dollar weakening was noted in the major currency pairs yesterday. If looking beyond the events within the pairs EUR/USD and USD/CHF, nothing remarkable happened at the last trades. The dollar strengthened against the pound and fell against the yen, but there were consolidation movements on these instruments and they were within the previously formed correction ranges. In the dollar and the euro dispute there was a sharp dollar strengthening that led not only to the dollar increase by the end of the last week, during which the dollar was losing against the European currency most of the time. These euro large-scale sales for the dollar can be attributed to the ECB President M. Draghis speech who had promised to continue quantitative easing on Friday in his report at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. The ECB president statements gave more certainty that the European regulator would begin to include in their purchases the Central Bank and the Eurozone sovereign debt. There were published little the US economic statistical data, the most interesting is the Fed Kansas City report that showed the manufacturing sector activity increase in November that was higher than expected - the index grew to the level of 7 from 4 in October, though we expected to see improvements only to 6. The week news does not plan to present the important data and those that are preparing to leave for the most part are expected to be with the positive dynamics. It is unlikely that the attitude towards the US dollar has changed, if there are no surprising deviations from forecasts to the negative side for the dollar. Technical analysis Euro (EUR) General overview The euro was able to slightly recover on the yesterday's trading. The euro fell sharply against the dollar, having lost all the gains of the previous day sessions and closed the last week with a substantial decrease. The reason of such a sharp changes in the investors sentiment against the euro was the Draghis statement about the European regulators intentions to continue quantitative easing and its readiness to expand aggressively these programs. There was a rapid euro decline against the US dollar on the Friday's trading session. The price fell to the current month minimum- the support level of 1.2385. The euro has grown to a value of 1.2437 at this week beginning. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a Dead Cross. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The pair can break the support level of 1.2400. After breaking 1.2400 the pair may go to 1.2300. Pound (GBP) General overview The pound also increased against the dollar, but the "cable" buyings were moderate and were within the price range where there the lateral correction was formed. There were no reasons for disappointment within the pound and the UK finance data could disappoint investors. The trend remains bearish in the medium term. The price is trading within the side channel of 1.5730 - 1.5600. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations The approach to the level of 1.5870 may lead to the price rebound down. The potential rebound target is the support level of 1.5550. Yen (JPY) General overview The dollar tries to continue the growth. The US dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Friday. The Japan Finance Minister T. Aso expressed his concern about the rapid Japanese yen decline that set the trading tone. The correctional price fell from the resistance level of 118.00 to the lower bound uplink of 117.50. There the short-term consolidation near the mark was formed, indicating the bullish trend continuation. As a result the pair broke the level of 118.00 upwards. The price is finding the first support at 118.00, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the resistance at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating. Trading recommendations When the price consolidates above the level of 118.00 it may go to the level of 119.20. Franc (CHF) General overview The Swiss currency managed to win some of the losses.The franc has lost some ground the last week. The data publication showed that the US consumer price inflation did not change during October, but increased by 1.7% in annual terms. The benchmark that excludes the volatile prices for such categories as food and energy, have risen by 1.8% y/y. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9720. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting. Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750. *Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fort Financial Services Posted November 26, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2014 "Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis26.11.2014Fundamental analysisThe dollar grew against the European competitors and has consolidated against the yen. Earlier we observed the situation where the risk tendency had increased. The news was weak in the amount of data that could affect the market, but it gave some impulse to the pair. The European indicators good business sentiment and less positive US economic statistics added some pressure on the US dollar. However, the dollar loss was within the correction range and did not testify any fundamental changes in the investors’ sentiment.The news will publish more important information and forecasts about the expected indicators promise to be in the dollar favor. The GDP assessment for the third quarter showed the result + 3.9% q/q, the consumer confidence index by the Conference board in November fell to 88.7 in November. However, the production index in the Richmond Fed influence zone was forecasted to decrease in November, and fell to 4 from 20 and the September house price index from the S & P / Case-Shiller for 20 megacities is increased to + 4.9% y/y.Technical analysisEuro (EUR)General overview We received two releases from the US: the second third quarter GDP assessment and the Conference Board consumer confidence data. As for the first release - the consensus forecast by the leading banks economists from the Wall Street suggests decline by 0.2%, but the positive macroeconomic reports indicate the data output slightly better than the traders’ expectations. The price reached the level of 1.2400 amid the reduced volume and formed a consolidation there. The price rebounded upwards from this level. The price is finding the first support at 1.2400, the next one is at 1.2300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.2500, the next one is at 1.2600. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.Trading recommendations The potential decrease targets are the support levels: 1.2400, 1.2300.Pound (GBP)General overview The inflation parliamentary hearings were held in the United Kingdom. The CPI figures showed its growth to 1.3% in October, but the inflation expectations remain subdued amid the lower energy prices. The unemployment rate reduction with the moderate average salary increase will reinforce the inflationary growth in the commodity market correction period. The sellers have been reducing the price towards the downward channel the fifth week in a row. Every time when the price is corrected to the channel upper bound there is formed the price rebound downwards. The price is finding the first support at 1.5660, the next one is at 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5870, the next one is at 1.5950. The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is increasing.Trading recommendations The upward trend line of 1.5870 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.5550 decrease.Yen (JPY)General overview The Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda has given his speech. Mr. Kuroda’s speech was traditionally characterized by his optimism about the economic growth perspectives in regard with the yen devaluation and the sales tax increase delay. The dollar index basket is aimed to increase near 88.70. The US and Japan stock markets positive dynamics also points out to the bullish sentiment within the pair USD/JPY. The short-term price decline was at the lower volumes and fell to 118.00. We expect the consolidation near this mark. The price is finding the first support at 117.00, the next one is at 115.80. The price is finding the first resistance at 118.00, the next one is at 119.20. There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.Trading recommendations We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 119.20.Franc (CHF)General overview The franc continues to win back its positions against the dollar and is waiting for the new reference points. The price is finding the first support at 0.9620, the next one is at 0.9560. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9680, the next one is at 0.9720. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.Trading recommendations We recommend going long with the first target - 0.9680. When the price consolidates above the first target it may go to the level 0.9750.*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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