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Weekly Trading Forecasts On Major Pairs (March 31 – April 4, 2014)

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Here’s the market outlook for the week:


Dominant bias: Bearish

This is a bear market: the Euro weakness is clearly noticeable. With the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, it is normally expected that the trend would continue going downwards, breaking the support line at 1.3700, and reaching the ultimate target at 1.3650. The expectation does not rule out the possibilities of normal rallies (which should be short-term in nature). For now, only short trades ought to be sought.


Dominant bias: Bullish

Since the ‘buy’ signal has been formed on the USD/CHF, it has been able to maintain that signal. The recent week has been bullish so far; plus the price could reach the resistance level at 0.8900, and then possibly breaking it to the upside, as the price trends further northwards. The support levels at 0.8850 and 0.8800 should check any transitory southward attempts along the way. As long as the price is above the aforementioned support levels, the bullish bias is valid.


Dominant bias: Bullish

There has been a clean bullish signal on the Cable, owing to a recent surge of stamina in it. The bullish signal is still relatively new, and each pullback would invariably proffer a new chance to go long. The Cable has the possibility of reaching the distribution territories at 1.6700 and 1.6750. The signal would be deemed as being valid as long as the price stays above the accumulation territory at 1.6600.


Dominant bias: Bearish

Since this market had been trading largely sideways, only scalping or intraday trading methods are recommended for now. There could be a serious breakout at any moment, and there is a possibility that the price would go further downwards when the breakout does occur (as indicated by the current price action). Meanwhile, scalpers and intraday traders may want to go long at the demand level of 102.00 and go short at the supply level of 102.50, either the former or the latter being a stop loss/target area, depending on whether the order is long or short.


Dominant bias: Bearish

A look at other JPY pairs reveals that some of them are moving upwards. So the inability of this cross to move upwards suggests that the Euro is very week indeed (the same reason why the EUR/USD is weak while the GBP/USD is strong, although they are normally correlated positively). One may, however, want to enter a short trade here, targeting the demand zones at 104.00 and 139.50.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:

“Some of the greatest and most profitable trading and investing strategies tend to be the most simple you could find. In the world of market speculation, complex very rarely equates to more profitable.” – Sam Evans

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