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Daily Market Analysis from Investizo.com

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General analysis XAUUSD for 19.07.2022

Current dynamics

The XAUUSD continues to trade actively and resumes its downtrend towards the strong psychological support at 1700.00.

Gold corrected on Monday at 1723.82, the highest level that this traditional safe haven asset reached, but by late afternoon the instrument returned to its downtrend. This price movement can be easily explained by the weakening of the U.S. dollar, caused by a decline in traders enthusiasm for the recently expected interest rate hike of 100 basis points at once. Whether it will actually happen, or the rate will be raised by the previously announced 75 basis points, we will know at the end of July during the next meeting of the members of the Federal Reserve, which will be held on the 27th.

The Australian National Bank claimed it expects the downtrend in gold to continue, should it break the support at $1675.00, it will continue southward at 1600.00. According to Laffer, a former adviser to President Reagan, the current situation with unprecedentedly high inflation in this century is caused by excessive monetary stimulation of the economy during the pandemic coronavirus and the only way to correct this imbalance is in the further tightening of monetary policy and reduction of the money supply, which will continue to lead to the strengthening of the dollar and lowering of the XAUUSD quotes.

At the same time, the analyst Hemke thinks that the FRS will be forced to switch over to the dovish policy as some experts believe that the economy is formally entering into recession, the citizens savings are fading, and the increase in consumer prices under an expensive dollar negatively affects the citizens attitude towards the representatives of the Democratic Party, which positions are hardly strong at the moment, which is an unacceptable luxury for the acting President on the threshold of the elections.

Traders interested in dealing this dynamic pair in the near future should pay attention to the following macroeconomic news: The number of construction permits issued tomorrow, Secondary housing market sales (June) and US crude oil inventories the day after tomorrow.

Support and resistance levels

Alligator is hungry: his mouth is wide open, his jaw (blue line) hovers high above his lips and teeth (green and red lines), the instrument is in a downtrend. The nearest fractal below the alligators teeth (red line) is at 1704.93. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are both in the red area, the bars are close to the zero level, which is a strong confirmatory sell signal.

✔️ Support levels: 1700.40, 1693.30, 1683.60.
✔️ Resistance levels: 1722.00, 1716.00, 1710.70.

Trading scenarios

✔️ Long positions should be opened at the 1710.70 with a target of 1716.00 and a stop loss at 1705.00. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
✔️ Short positions can be opened at the level of 1700.40 with a target of 1693.30 and a stop-loss at the level of 1705.00. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
1300956979_goldh4.jpg.fcd035c51d50f4f4b284df809208c1de.jpg

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Analytical department investizo.com
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

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General analysis USDCHF for 20.07.2022

Current dynamics

The USD/CHF pair opened today's trading session with a decline. To continue the bearish performance of the pair for the third consecutive session. As the pair witnessed yesterday, Tuesday, a strong slide from the highest level in several weeks, touched last Thursday.

The US dollar continued its bearish path and extended its losses significantly during trading on Tuesday, with lower expectations of investors that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more strongly during its meeting next week, in light of the sharp decline in gasoline prices during the past month, a development that officials are likely to welcome. The Fed is concerned that expectations of high inflation may become ingrained and complicates their task of curbing price increases.

In addition to the statements of the Fed members that came to confirm that they are committed to raising the interest rate by 75 basis points in the current July meeting to reduce bets about the Federal Reserve escalating the pace of raising interest rates.

Whereas, Lewis Waller and James Bollader, Fed members said that they are leaning toward a 75 basis point rate increase at the next meeting, rather than a move by 100 basis points, to mitigate the negative effects on the economy.

As data published by the US Census Bureau on Tuesday, building permits came in at 1.685 million, above expectations (1.65 million) in June, and housing starts in the United States (MoM) came in at 1.559 million, below expectations (1.585 million) in June, the rate increased Building permits changed to -0.6% in June from the previous -7%. The initial housing change rate increased from -14.4% previously to -2% in June.

The main keys affecting the pair will be this week Initial Jobless Claims, and S&P Global Purchase Managers Index (PMI).

Support and resistance levels

On the 4 hour chart, the instrument is testing the consolidation at the bottom of the Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed downward and the price range is widening, which indicates that the current trend is about to continue. The momentum chart is below the 100 level, which gives buy signals. The Envelopes indicator gives clear sell signals.

✔️ Support levels: 0.96800, 0.96425, 0.96050.
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.97150, 0.97825, 0.98350.

Trading scenarios

✔️ Short positions should be opened at the 0.96800 with a target of 0.96425 and a stop loss at 0.97150. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.97150 with a target of 0.97825 and a stop-loss at the level of 0.96800. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

chf.jpg.760b93453887087e09025f0fb1454eb7.jpg

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Analytical department investizo.com

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.
 

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General analysis AUDUSD for 27.07.2022

Current dynamics

AUD/USD drops to 0.69450 ahead of major macroeconomic news on the pair

The pair AUD/USD, traditionally sensitive to the appetite for risk and dependent on it in direct relation, since the beginning of the trading week is in a downtrend, as a whole market is in an anxious condition, expecting the probable occurrence of economic recession. These concerns are dictated not only by steadily rising inflation and a consistent increase in the key rate of the U.S. Federal Reserve, but also negative forecasts about the prospects for economic growth in the whole world, including the Peoples Republic of China, heavily affected by prolonged restrictions caused by the epidemic situation around the pandemic of Covid-19. Another round of geopolitical tension in the world also affects the reduction of appetite for risk: the USA confronts China about its claims in the Taiwan issue, relations between Russia and European countries are complicated due to the news about a possible further reduction of gas supplies to the West. 

Negative statistics were released in the USA, showing a consecutive three-month decline in consumer confidence (95.7 vs. previous 98.4), new home sales in June (0.59 million vs. previous 0.64 million).

In Australia, experts predict the worst performance since 1990, probably in annual terms, it will reach 6.2%, which will inevitably provoke an increase in interest rates of the Reserve Bank of Australia.  The main reasons for such a surge in inflation in Australia is the energy and agricultural crisis, the global rise in prices for energy and food products.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be held on August 2, the main agenda is expected to raise the main interest rate to 1.35%. Experts believe that the most probable decision is to increase the rate by 50 basis points, at the same time the ceiling of its growth at the moment is forecasted at 3.35%, as the situation does not look inclined to stabilization and the cycle of tightening of the monetary policy, probably, will not end soon. The nearest step in the pairs development is for the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which is scheduled for July 27. Analysts expect the key rate to be raised by 75 basis points at once this time.

Support and resistance levels

Alligator is sleeping: the moving averages are twisted, the instrument is flat. The nearest fractal below the alligators teeth (red line) is at 0.69340. Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Accelerator Oscillator (AC) are in the gray area, showing a divergence, which is not a reliable signal to open a position.

✔️ Support levels: 0.69340, 0.69040, 0.68720.
✔️ Resistance levels: 0.70510, 0.70150, 0.69760.

Trading scenarios

✔️ Short positions should be opened at the 0.96800 with a target of 0.69040 and a stop loss at 0.69550. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.69760 with a target of 0.70150 and a stop-loss at the level of 0.69550. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

aud.jpg.9ccabc1091d0363e4d6461504ecd4c2e.jpg

 


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Analytical department investizo.com
 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.


 

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General analysis USDJPY for 16.08.2022

Current DynamicsJapan's economy grew 0.5% in real terms from April to June. Consumption in Japan, which accounts for more than half of the country's GDP, grew on 1.1%, exports increased on 0.9% and imports increased on 0.7%. Builder confidence in the U.S. housing market fell harder than expected in August to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. Citizens of border areas in California started regularly traveling to Mexico for shopping products.GDP in Japan rose for the third quarter in a row. According to data released Aug. 15 by the country's Cabinet, Japan's economy grew 0.5% in real terms from April to June. Personal consumption, on which more than half of GDP accounts, increased on 1.1%.More people started going to restaurants and traveling after covid restrictions were removed in Japan. Capital spending increased on 1.4%. It is worth noting that in the previous quarter the same figure showed a decline from 0.3%.At the same time public investment in Japan also increased on 0.9% in real terms. In the previous quarter there was a decrease by 3.2%. Exports increased on 0.9%, and imports - on 0.7%.Even though Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.2%, which is worse than economists' expectations for 2.7%, Minister Daishiro Yamagiwa, who is in charge of economic recovery, said that Japan's economy is gradually recovering.Meanwhile in the U.S., builder confidence in the housing market fell in August to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic. High inflation and rising borrowing costs have affected the downturn. The Wells Fargo index of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) in the United States, which measures the dynamics of the single-family housing market, fell for the eighth straight month and dropped to 49, which is the worst reading for the housing market since the financial crisis of 2008.Along with that, residents of California's border areas have started regularly traveling to Mexico for shopping products. For example, gasoline in Mexico for $1.24 cheaper than in California; milk is twice cheaper. Sellers and supermarkets in Tijuana are seeing a 20-30% increase of U.S. shoppers.Against the backdrop of declining GDP in the U.S. for the second quarter in a row, Japan's economy looks much better off. Low key interest rates and growing imports exports indicate the economy is recovering even though energy resources are expensive.

The USD/JPY tested the 38.2 Fibonacci level, but failed to consolidate near it and went back to the 50.0 Fibonacci level. Trend is descending. The RSI oscillator is in the lower half near 50.

Support and resistance levels

✔️ Support levels: 135.57, 134.43, 133.72, 133.15
✔️ Resistance levels: 132.57, 131.86, 130.70

Trading scenarios

✔️ Short positions can be opened below the level of 132.57 with a target of 131.86 and a stop loss of 133.72 : Implementation period: 1-3 days
✔️ Long positions can be opened above the level of 133.72 with a target of 134.43 and a stop loss of 133.15 : Implementation period: 1-3 days
jpy.jpg.22e77ed9f4c1f44cc2f3a72c36bd88fa.jpg

More analytics on our website
 

Analytical department investizo.com
 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument.

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  • 2 months later...

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CHFJPY today as we see here, the price is going to bullish, so it is good if you just follow the trend to make some profits, you can open buy position when the price breaks resistance area at 148.37 with potential target up to next resistance 149.01

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