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Date : 19th July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 19 ‚Äď USD & Stocks Cool Ahead of Central Banks.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex continued last week’s slip and tested 106.80, before recovering. US Stocks dropped into close following +1% on open (NASDAQ -0.81%) after a plunge in the NAHB home builder index. Goldmans & Bank Of America, beat expectations but saw profits down -47% & -37%, respectively. IBM beat after hours, but shares fell -4.32%. Reports that Apple (-2.06%) is to freeze hiring weighed. Asian markets are choppy, (Hang Seng -0.82%, Nikkei +0.70%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields are up +1.72% & the rate curve is still inverted. Oil holds $100, Gold down to $1710 BTC holds at $22k. Gazprom warnings of European supply issues and 700 new Covid cases reported in China, weigh on sentiment.

Week Ahead ‚ÄstECB¬†&¬†BOJ¬†Rate Decisions,¬†RBA¬†Mins, a raft of¬†CPI¬†&¬†Retail Sales¬†data and¬†Earnings Season¬†still has more Banks, Johnson & Johnson and Netflix today,with Tesla, Twitter & Snap later in the week.
 

  • USDIndex¬†slides further to test 106.80 and rotates around 107.00 now as expectations of a 100bp rate hike next week evaporate.¬†AUD¬†outperforms in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed -0.84%, 32.31pts (3830), US500FUTS at¬†3850¬†now. A strong +1% opening rally was wiped out following weak Housing data and the Apple news.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield higher, into close at 2.986%, trades at 2.96% now.
  • Oil & Gold¬†had volatile sessions last week ‚ÄstUSOil¬†trades up back under $100 now from a test of $102.00 yesterday.¬†Gold¬†tested to $1724 yesterday but back to $1707 now.
  • Bitcoin¬†rallied to $22.8K yesterday and holds $22k now, on more chatter of major investments coming.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†remains pressured but tested 1.0200 yesterday & back to 1.016 now and¬†USDJPY¬†is down again to 137.85 now. Cable tested back to 1.2000 from 1.1760 lows last week. Race to be new PM is reduced to two contenders this week. New PM Sept 5.

Overnight¬†‚Äď RBA Minutes ‚Äď ‚Äúcommitted to doing what is necessary on inflation‚ÄĚ no new insight, UK Earnings¬†(6.2% vs. 6.8%) &¬†Payrolls¬†are weaker and¬†CHF¬†Trade Balance lifted 70 bln CHF.

Today¬†EZ CPI (Final), Speech from BoE‚Äôs¬†Bailey.¬†Earnings¬†‚Äď J&J, Lockheed & Netflix.

2022-07-19_09-55-01.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). AUD continues to recover from last weeks 0.6680 low and no surprises today from RBA Minutes. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6900. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line higher, RSI 67 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00908.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 20 ‚Äď Stocks rallied; USD down.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
USDIndex down to 106.52. US Stocks continued to rally overnight, after European and US markets posted broad gains yesterday (NASDAQ +3.11%) amid strong earnings and the expected resumption of Russian gas supply to Europe helping lift risk-on sentiment and ease fears of a recession. UK CPI inflation lifted to 9.4% y/y in June from 9.1% y/y in the previous month. Core inflation eased slightly, but at 5.8% y/y still remains far, far above target. German PPI inflation eased slightly.

Earnings: Netflix shares jumped after earnings beat; it lost fewer subscribers than expected and says cheaper ad tier is coming in early 2023. Boeing rose on deal to sell jets to 777 Partners, Johnson & Johnson and IBM fell on dollar impact warning, Halliburton, Hasbro & Truist rose after profit beat. Johnson & Johnson beat analysts’ estimates on strength in its pharmaceuticals unit, even as the company cut its full-year adjusted profit forecast due to a stronger Dollar. Twitter Inc. and Elon Musk will go to trial in October over whether the billionaire must complete his $44 billion acquisition of the social media company, a Delaware judge ruled on Tuesday. Amazon.com filed a lawsuit against the leaders of more than 10,000 Facebook groups it accused of publishing fake reviews on the e-commerce site, the company announced on Tuesday.
 
  • USDIndex¬†is mired at two-week lows to 106.52. It has fallen 2 handles in two days from a 20+ year high of 108.54 last Thursday.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†climbed 2.76%,¬†USA100¬†surged 3.11% followed by a 2.43% jump in the¬†USA30.¬†JPN225¬†gained 2.7%, the ASX 1.7% and Hang Seng and CSI lifted 1.6% and 0.2% respectively.
  • Yields¬†10-year Treasury yield is up 0.2 bp at 3.02%.
  • Oil¬†down to 98.70 &¬†Gold¬†steady at $1707.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†has climbed to 1.0233 ahead of Thursday‚Äôs ECB meeting.¬†USDJPY¬†has corrected to 137.52. Cable at 1.2008.
Today: Canadian CPI.¬†Earnings¬†‚Äď Tesla, ASML Holding, Abbott Laboratories etc. For Europe the day of reckoning will come tomorrow when the ECB meeting coincides with the day the Nordstream 1 pipeline is supposed to re-open after scheduled maintenance work. If Russia doesn‚Äôt re-open and the ECB announcement disappoints Eurozone stocks and the EUR are likely to sell off in tandem with Eurozone peripherals.

2022-07-20_10-57-40.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) US100 (+3.10%). Spiked to 12,356. Next resistance 12,600 & 12,945. MAs aligned, turning lower in 1-hour chart, MACD histogram & signal line hold higher, RSI 66 but falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 21st July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 21.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USDIndex down to 106.62. BoJ stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy stance. Asian markets traded mixed. European and US futures are higher now after paring earlier losses in the wake of reports that the Nordstream 1 pipeline was re-opened as planned. (NASDAQ +1.58%). European markets will wait for the ECB and news on the new anti-fragmentation tool, which may be needed quickly after Italian PM Draghi lost the confidence vote yesterday, with three of his coalition partners withdrawing support. Draghi is likely to resign this morning.

Earnings: Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $2.27 per share on $16.93 billion in revenue in Q2 2022 (+42% revenue). Automotive margins decreased from last quarter and a year ago, impacted by inflation and more competition for EV components. Shares of Alcoa and CSX jumped in extended trading after the companies beat expectations. United Airlines (-6% stock price) reported that it returned to profitability during the second quarter, but results came in below expectations. Shares of Carnival were under pressure after the cruise company announced that it was selling an additional $1 billion of stock.

ECB Preview:¬†There is a lot riding on today‚Äôs ECB meeting, where Lagarde is not just expected to finally lift rates, but also to unveil details of a new ‚ÄúTransmission Protection Mechanism‚ÄĚ. There were source stories this week confirming what the minutes to the last meeting and comments since then have made pretty clear, namely that the hawks at the council will be pushing for a 50 bp move.
 

  • USDIndex¬†has dropped to¬†106.62.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA100¬†climbed¬†1.58%, while the USA500 and USA30 rose 0.59% and 0.15%, respectively.¬†Nikkei¬†and¬†ASX¬†managed gains of 0.37% and 0.5% respectively.
  • Yields¬†10-year Treasury yield meanwhile is up 2.6 bp at 3.05%.
  • Oil¬†consolidating between¬†$98-$100.¬†US crude stocks dip, gasoline builds as demand slackens ‚Äď EIA, Libya‚Äôs NOC say production resumes at several oilfields. Canada Keystone export pipeline at reduced rates for third day.
  • Gold¬†drifts at¬†$1685.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†got a boost from news of gas deliveries to 1.0230.¬†USDJPY¬†has lifted to 138.62. Cable at 1.1960.¬†NZD¬†is looking weak.

2022-07-21_10-33-48.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.56%) retests 3-day high at 0.8540. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line at 0, RSI 61 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 22nd July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 22 ‚Äď ECB Goes Large.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
USDIndex continued to decline testing 106.25, ECB surprised with Hawkish 50bp rate hike lifting rates above 0 (first hike since 2011) and lifting Euro. US Stocks had another positive day (NASDAQ +1.36%) TSLA +9.78%, SNAP +5.42% but dropped -24% after hours on Earnings miss AT&T -7.42% & United Airlines -10.17%. Asian markets are mostly positive. (Hang Seng -0.01%, Nikkei +0.40%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields are down -4.78%. Oil bounced from $95.00 trades at $98.00, Gold up $1720, BTC holds over $22k. Gazprom turns the gas back on but Europe remains nervous as solidarity is tested, Biden tests Covid positive.
 
  • USDIndex¬†slides further to test¬†106.25¬†before bouncing to¬†107.25¬†support as EURO rally cools.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed¬†+0.99%, 39.00pts (3998), US500FUTS at¬†3884¬†now.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield lower into close at 2.91, trades at 2.915% now.
  • Oil & Gold¬†had volatile sessions last week ‚ÄstUSOil¬†trades up from $95 to test¬†$98.00.¬†Gold¬†tests¬†$1720¬†now from¬†$1680.
  • Bitcoin¬†rallied to $23.8K yesterday and holds $22k now, on more chatter of major investments coming.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†remains pressured but tested¬†1.0280¬†yesterday & back to¬†1.0142¬†now and¬†USDJPY¬†is down again to¬†137.58¬†now. Cable tested back to¬†1.2000¬†& back down ti¬†1.1913.¬†Race to be new PM is reduced to two contenders this week. New PM Sept 5.
Overnight ‚ÄstUK Retail Sales and PMIs from Europe, Germany, UK and US.

Today: UK & US Flash PMIs, UK Retail Sales, ECB SPF & CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, Verizon.

2022-07-19_09-55-01.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). AUD continues to recover from last week’s 0.6680 low and no surprises today from RBA Minutes. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6900. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line higher, RSI 67 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00908.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 25th July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 25 ‚Äď FED & Tech Giant Earnings Week.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
USDIndex¬†pushed under¬†106.00¬†on Friday (closed at 106.50) as the¬†US Services¬†sector¬†contracted¬†for first time in 2 years.¬†US Stocks¬†sank into close (NASDAQ¬†-1.87%), big declines for tech companies, led by a -39% for¬†SNAP. Asian markets also negative to start the week, (Hang Seng¬†-1.18%,¬†Nikkei¬†-0.79%). European FUTS lower too.¬†Yields¬†tanked to closed down -4.74%.¬†Oil¬†under $94,¬†Gold¬†under $1725 and¬†BTC¬†under $22k. High Inflation, rising Interest Rates and weak Consumer and Business Confidence continue to weigh on sentiment. The CME ‚ÄúFedWatch Tool‚Ä̬Ļ still has a 21.3% chance of a 100bp rate hike on Wednesday.¬†Russia & Ukraine¬†signed agreement to allow grain exports to start but then Russia shelled Odessa,¬†UK PM race¬†is getting increasingly bitter and¬†Lavrov¬†is on a tour of Africa.

2022-07-25_08-30-05.jpg

Week Ahead ‚ÄstFED Rate Decision,¬†US GDP¬†and¬†Earnings Season¬†sees the technology giants (APPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL & META) plus many more companies all reporting Q2 data.
 
  • USDIndex¬†up from lows at 105.96 on Friday (US Services PMIs big miss and into contraction at 47.00 vs 52.7) now trades at 106.60.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed -0.93% -37pts (3961), (week +2.4%). US500FUTS at¬†3958¬†now. SNAP +39.04%, TWTR +0.8%, (Earnings not as bad as expected), AMEX +1.9% (Earnings beat & increased Revenue forecast) Verizon -6.8% (Profits cut) META -7.6%, GOOGL -5.6%.
  • 106 companies have reported; 75.5% have beat estimates¬†(average for last 4 quarters 80% beat.) Strong Dollar hindering.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield significantly lower at 2.783%, trades lower again at 2.75% now.
  • Oil & Gold¬†had volatile & weak sessions last week ‚ÄstUSOil¬†traded from over $102 support down to $94.15 lows, and is lower again today at $93.00. OPEC next meet Aug 3.¬†Gold¬†fell to $1680 lows last week but recovered $1700 and trades back to $1725 now.
  • Bitcoin¬†rallied to¬†$24K,¬†last week, breaking away from the $20k level but is back to $21.8K today
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†remains pressured but rotates at 1.0200,¬†USDJPY¬†down to test 135.50 last week ‚Äď now 136.30. Cable breached the key 1.2000 last week, trades at 1.1990 now.
Today ‚Äď German Ifo Survey, UK CBI Trends, US National Activity Index,¬†Earnings¬†from Ryanair, Philips, Vodafone, Infosys, Newmont and NXP Semiconductor.

2022-07-25_09-56-28.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.40%). Rallied from a test under 0.9600 on Friday to 0.9645 now next resistance 0.9658 & 0.9675. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram negative but rising, RSI 52 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00125, Daily ATR 0.00800.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 26th July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 26 ‚Äď On Hold Ahead of FED, Oil Rallies.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex¬†ticked lower again but held over¬†106.00,¬†ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow.¬†FX markets¬†subdued with a 75 bp hike fully priced in, however uncertainty weighs over guidance.¬†Russia¬†will cut gas supplies to Europe from tomorrow.¬†US Stocks¬†rallied into close after a weak day (NASDAQ¬†-0.43%),¬†Walmart¬†fell -9% (after hours) following profit warning,¬†Newmont¬†missed earnings -13%.¬†AMZN¬†raised prices for Amazon Prime.¬†Alibaba¬†cut back global expansion plans. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng¬†+1.76%,¬†Nikkei¬†-0.23%). European FUTS lower too.¬†Yields¬†bounced to close up +1.67%.¬†Oil¬†rallied $5/barrel to $98.00 after Russian announcement.¬†Gold¬†remains under $1725 and¬†BTC¬†under $22k.¬†Biden¬†talked down a ‚Äúrecession‚ÄĚ and called for more investment from Oil companies.

Week Ahead ‚ÄstFED Rate Decision,¬†US GDP¬†and¬†Earnings Season¬†sees the technology giants (APPL, AMZN & META) plus many more companies all reporting Q2 data.
 
  • USDIndex¬†up, support at 106.20 holds, & trades at 106.30 ‚Äď the¬†Dallas & Chicago Fed indexes¬†both slumped and remained in negative territory, another sign of recession.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed +5.12 pts (0.13%) (3966), US500FUTS at¬†3958¬†now.¬†4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows‚Ķ
  • Yields¬†10-year yield recovered to close at 2.8%, trades lower again at 2.79% now.
  • Oil ‚Ästin‚Äďfocus following tight supply and the announcement from Russia rallied over 5% from $93.
  • Gold¬†had a volatile session from $1736 to $1714 to settle at $1724 once again.
  • Bitcoin sank from¬†$21.8K yesterday down to $21k now.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†remains pressured but rotates at 1.0225,¬†USDJPY¬†down to test 136.00 yesterday; now 136.70. Cable breached the key 1.2000 last week, trades at 1.1990 now.
Overnight¬†‚Äď JPY¬†CPI & PPI ‚Äď firmer & in-line at 1.6% & 2.0% respectively.

Today ‚ÄstUS Monthly Home Prices,¬†US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, EU‚Äôs Energy Summit.¬†Earnings¬†from¬†MSFT, GOOGL, Coca-Cola McDonald‚Äôs, UBS (missed), 3M, UPS, GE, Visa

2022-07-26_09-57-48.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+2.37%). Rallied from 3.2460 lows last week to 3.4370 now, next resistance 3.4687 (20-day MA). MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 73 & OB zone, H1 ATR 0.0172, Daily ATR 0.1246.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 27th July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 27 ‚Äď Big Tech lifts the mood on Fed Day.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
USDIndex ticked up to 107.00, as EUR slipped over 1% before recovering following the Russian announcement of further cuts to European gas supplies. FX markets subdued ahead of FED later today. US Stocks declined (NASDAQ -1.87%), Walmart -7.6% (profits warning) Coinbase -21% AMZN -5.23% Shopify -14%. However, after hours GOOGL & MSFT were up 5% & 4% after Earnings. Unilever, Coke & McDonald’s all warned of higher prices. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -1.2%, Nikkei +0.23%). European FUTS higher. Yields up again +0.56%, but 2/10yr curve remains inverted. Oil holds $95, Gold slipped to lower and BTC holds under $22k.
 
  • USDIndex¬†up, to resistance at 107.00 ‚Äď holds at 106.80.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed -45.79 pts (-1.15%) (3921), US500FUTS at¬†3957¬†now.¬†4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows..is the bottom in or is it a dead cat bounce?
  • Yields¬†10-year yield recovered to close at 2.787%, trades higher again at 2.8068% now.
  • Oil ‚Ästin‚Äďfocus rallied to $98 on news from Russia, since declined to $95.
  • Gold¬†had another weak session ‚Äď $1727 to $1714, now up to $1718.
  • Bitcoin¬†sank again to trade at $21.1K now.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†remains pressured came within 7 pips of 1.0100 and trades at 1.0225,¬†USDJPY¬†tests to 137.00 now. Cable holds over the key 1.2000, capped at 1.2080.
Overnight¬†‚Äď AUD¬†CPI in-line (21-yr high) at 1.8% &¬†German¬†GfK missed -30.6 vs -27.7.

Today ‚ÄstUS¬†Durable Goods,¬†FOMC announcement and Chair¬†Powell‚Äôs¬†press conference¬†Earnings¬†from Airbus, BASF, Deutsche Bank, Equinor, BATS, GSK, Lloyds, Rio Tinto, Credit Suisse,¬†Meta, T-Mobile,¬†Boeing.

2022-07-27_09-56-44.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.30%). Rejected 0.8950 again earlier and tested to 0.8900 a key support. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 38 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00697.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 28th July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 28 ‚Äď Stocks & Treasuries rally, USD dives post FOMC.


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USDIndex¬†tanked over a whole big number to¬†106.00,¬†from 107.25 as the FED raised interest rates¬†75bp¬†(its 4th rise in 2022). Ongoing rises will be¬†‚Äúappropriate‚Ä̬†and¬†‚Äúhighly attentive‚Ä̬†to inflation. However, Powell gave no notice as to whether 50bp or 75bp in September was appropriate*.¬†US Stocks¬†rallied hard** (NASDAQ¬†+4.06%), betting on 50bp.¬†NVDA+7.60%,¬†AMZN+5.37%,¬†TSLA+6.17%. However, after hours¬†Meta¬†+6.55% posted a 1% DECLINE in Revenue (the first in its history), shares dropped -4.65%. Asian markets mixed (1 million in Wuhan in lockdown again) (Hang Seng¬†-0.35%,¬†Nikkei¬†+0.23%). European FUTS higher.¬†Yields¬†up again +1.78%,¬†Oil¬†rallied to $98,¬†Gold¬†higher at $1740 and¬†BTC¬†moved up to $23k.

Biden & Xi due to speak today, Manchin (Dem. Senator holding up Biden’s climate Bill) backs down. PBOC to pump $148bn to stabilize real estate sector.

2022-07-28_09-39-56.jpg

2022-07-28_09-11-50.jpg
 
  • USDIndex¬†weakens further to 105.92 now.¬†YEN¬†outperforms in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed higher +102.56 pts (+2.62%) (4023), US500FUTS at¬†34019¬†now.¬†4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows..is the bottom in or is it a dead cat bounce?
  • Yields¬†10-year yield dived into close to 2.734%, recovered to 2.78% now.
  • Oil ‚Ästin‚Äďfocus again as inventories had a 4.5m drawdown vs 1.5m, rallied to $98.90.
  • Gold ‚Ästweaker USD helped lift the precious metal to $1740 highs currently from $1711 lows yesterday.
  • Bitcoin¬†also rallied to trade at $23.1K now.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†rallied from within 7 pips of 1.0100 yesterday to trade at 1.0227,¬†USDJPY¬†dived under 135.30 now, from 137.50 yesterday. Cable broke resistance at 1.2080 to trade to 1.2180 now.
Overnight¬†‚Äď NZD¬†Business Confidence improves (-56.7 vs -62.6)¬†AUD¬†Import Prices slip and Retail Sales miss significantly (0.2% vs 0.9%)

Today ‚ÄstGerman CPIs, US Q2¬†GDP¬†(Advance), Q2¬†PCE. Earnings¬†from¬†Barclays, Anglo American,¬†Nestle, EDF, L‚ÄôOr√©al,¬†Amazon, Apple, Intel, and many more.

2022-07-28_09-57-04.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.87%). Rejected 137.50 yesterday and tested to 135.15 lows earlier. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 31.55 & falling, H1 ATR 0.361, Daily ATR 1.225.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 29th July 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď July 29 ‚Äď Stocks up, USD lower on final trading day of the month.


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Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex sinks again tanked to 105.75, from 106.80. The US is in a technical recession (2 consecutive quarters of contraction) after Q2 GDP -0.9% & (Q1 -1.6%), and GDP Inflation rose to 8.7% from 8.0%) but Unemployment remains very low and job creation (Claims fell to 256K from 261k) and wage growth are strong. US Stocks rallied another 1%+ on expectations of slower rate hikes. AMZN +1.08% & APPL+0.36%, both beat Earnings after hours, shares were up 3% & 12%, respectively. Meta -5.2% & QCOM -4.54%. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -2.02%, Nikkei -0.03%). European FUTS higher. Yields continue to see-saw, today -1.94%, Oil under $97, Gold breached $1760 and BTC moved up to $24k.

Biden & Xi meeting skirted Taiwan talk, Ukrainian forces plan counterattacks in the South, Russia shells Kiev.
 
  • USDIndex¬†weakens further to 105.45 now.¬†YEN¬†outperforms again in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed higher +48.8 pts (+1.21%) (4072), US500FUTS at¬†4105¬†now.¬†Bears being squeezed, 10 days north of 20-day MA. 4175 next key resistance
  • Yields¬†10-year yield dived into close 2.681%, down again to 2.67% now.
  • Oil ‚Ästpeaked at $99.80 yesterday down to test $96.00 before recovering to $97.00 now.
  • Gold ‚Ästbreached & broke key 20-day MA ($1745) and $1750. Trades at $1765 now.
  • Bitcoin¬†also rallied on weaker USD to trade at $24.1K now.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†rallied to test 1.0250 on EZ news,¬†USDJPY¬†dived 1% under 133.00 to 132.75. Cable broke 1.2200 and trades at 1.2225.
Overnight¬†‚Äď JPY¬†Tokyo Inflation hotter, Retail Sales, Housing Starts & Consumer Confidence weaker,¬†AUD¬†PPI inline,¬†French¬†GDP better,¬†German¬†Import Prices in line.

Today ‚ÄstGerman Flash GDP & Unemployment, EZ Flash CPI and Flash¬†Q2 GDP,¬†US Jun PCE,¬†US Chicago PMI, Canadian¬†GDP.

2022-07-29_10-00-58.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-1.13%). Breached key technical level at 133.00 today and tests 132.50. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 19.77, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.365, Daily ATR 1.230.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 1st August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 1.


MAP_1200x628_jun19-696x364.png
1st day of the month ‚Äď Fears over slowing growth and expectations for moderation in Fed rate hikes overshadowed still hot inflation prints.

USDIndex 
sinks again to 105.50, while against the Yen it extended to 6-week lows, i.e. 131.96. US data out Friday showed stubbornly high inflation and wages growth. Corporate earnings have mostly beaten lowered forecasts. The China PMI reports missed miserably and flagged risks to the overall outlook as the country’s zero-Covid policy continues to bite. Hong Kong’s benchmark underperformed and lost -0.2%. US Stocks are steady. Nikkei and ASX gained 0.6% and 0.7%, GER40 and UK100 futures are narrowly mixed in opening trade.

Overnight: China‚Äôs property¬†developers in focus and Alibaba still weighed down after the US included the company in the delisting¬†watchlist. Evergrande¬†failed to deliver a restructuring plan;¬†Alibaba¬†added to SEC List of Chinese Firms Facing Delisting, along with another 200 companies.¬†German¬†Retail Sales plunged -1.6% m/m in June ‚Äď flags ongoing¬†cost pressures¬†that coupled with the¬†threat¬†of¬†energy rationing¬†means¬†recession risks¬†are palpable now.¬†HSBC¬†posted a higher profitability target and bullish dividends outlook.
 
  • USDIndex¬†weakens &¬†YEN¬†outperforms.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed higher +48.8 pts (+1.21%) (4072), US500FUTS at¬†4105¬†now.¬†Fed‚Äôs Kashkari affirmed the bank‚Äôs commitment to bring inflation down, which acted as a reminder that the Fed will continue to hike rates, even if the path of the tightening cycle may not be quite as aggressive as markets had feared at one point.
  • Yields¬†10-year Treasury rate lifted 1.6 bp to 2.665 (after sliding to the lowest since early April at 2.618% at the end of last week).
  • Oil ‚Ästdrifted back to¬†97.60, as OPEC+ meeting on Thursday and is expected to produce an increase in supply, even if only minor.
  • Gold ‚Äststeady at 2-week highs at¬†$1764.
  • Bitcoin¬†at¬†23,170.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstYen¬†remains the main beneficiary of the correction in¬†haven flows¬†into the USD and¬†USDJPY¬†slipped to¬†131.96. The¬†USDCHF¬†also caught a bid, i.e.¬†0.9500¬†and¬†Sterling¬†rose against both¬†USD¬†and¬†EUR¬†‚Äď with¬†GBPUSD¬†now at¬†1.2196, while¬†EURUSD¬†is lingering at¬†1.0240.
Today ‚Äď UK, Australian central banks expected to hike this week, while it is NFP week as well.

2022-08-01_10-31-15.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.79%). Broke 132.00 low. 1Hour-MAs flattened, but MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI sideways 34.50. H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 1.354.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 2nd August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 2 ‚Äď Pelosi Taiwan Visit Saps Sentiment.


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USDIndex¬†sinks again to¬†105.00,¬†dragged lower by falling¬†Yields¬†(10yr -2.88% to 2.54%).¬†US Stocks¬†lower following record July. HSBC¬†+6.5%¬†Boeing¬†+5.96%¬†Pearson¬†+12.66%¬†BBBY¬†+14.77%. Asian markets pressured lower by¬†Pelosi‚Äôs¬†proposed visit to¬†Taiwan¬†and¬†China¬†promising¬†‚Äúcountermeasures‚Ä̬†including ‚Äúmilitary actions‚ÄĚ.¬†(Hang Seng¬†-2.68%,¬†Nikkei¬†-1.44%). European FUTS also lower. (-0.6%).¬†Oil¬†tanks under $93,¬†Gold¬†spiked to $1780 and¬†BTC¬†down under $23k.

RBA¬†raised rates 50bp, as expected, (3rd consecutive month & fastest rate hike cycle since 1994) ‚Äď BUT¬†cooled forward guidance ‚Ästwill raise rates in months ahead, but¬†‚Äúnot on a pre-set path‚Ä̬†#AUDUSD¬†falls from 0.7030, to 0.6950,¬†#AUDJPY¬†-1.66%.

Biden announces US have killed head of Al-Qaeda, Zawahiri in Kabul drone strike.
 
  • USDIndex¬†weakens further to test under 105.00 now.¬†YEN¬†&¬†CHF¬†outperform again in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed lower -11.66pts (-0.28%) (4118), US500FUTS at¬†4100¬†now.¬†4175 remains next key resistance
  • Yields¬†10-year yield dived into close 2.60%, down again to 2.54% now.
  • Oil ‚Ästtanked to $93.00 from $101.80 highs on Friday.
  • Gold ‚Ästspiked to $1780 before cooling to $1773 now. Support at $1770 & $1766.
  • Bitcoin¬†also weaker trades at $22.8K now, from as high as $24.4K.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†rallied to test 1.0300 zone,¬†USDJPY¬†dived under 131.00 to 130.40 lows. Cable holds over 1.2200 and tests key 1.2260 resistance area.
Overnight¬†‚Äď AUD¬†Building Approvals better than expected (-0.7% vs. -5.3%), Commodity prices lower (14.1% vs. 24.3%)¬†UK¬†House inflation a tick lower at 0.1% m/m.

Today ‚ÄstCanadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US¬†JOLTS¬†Report, Speeches from Fed‚Äôs¬†Bullard, Evans & Mester.¬†Earnings BP¬†(out ‚Äď EPS exceed by +26%, profits a monster ¬£6.95bn),¬†CAT, UBER, AirBnB,¬†AMD, PayPal, Starbucks, Gilead, Marriott.

2022-08-02_09-51-17.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.66%). Dovish RBA and Taiwan tensions hit the key most risk sensitive pair. Collapses from 92.500 to 90.75 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 22.5, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.294, Daily ATR 1.198.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 3rd August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 3 ‚Äď Market ‚ÄúPushed and Pulled‚ÄĚ.


geopolitcs-696x364.jpg
The market was pushed and pulled by geopolitical risks and uncertainties, earnings ups and downs, Fed tightening angst and recession risks.

USDIndex bounced to 106.38 
currently steady at 106, Yields spiked sharply higher with selling persisting into the close (10yr 2.746% having challenged 2.51% overnight) dragged by hawkish Fedspeak and the safe arrival of Pelosi. The safe-haven Yen continued its slide. US Stocks ended in the red. Asian markets mixed as China has its warheads trained on Taiwan but on the flipside markets are trying to weigh growth risks and the Fed outlook (Hang Seng & Nikkei 0.5%, CSI 300 -0.2%). European FUTS also lower (-0.6%). Oil at $94, Gold holds over $1750 and BTC down under $23k.

Fed‚Äôs Mester¬†said below trend growth is not a bad outcome, and it is necessary to get inflation under control.¬†Fed President Daly¬†said the FOMC is likely to raise rates and keep them high for a while, in her comments in a LinkedIn interview ‚Äď ‚ÄėNowhere Near‚Äô Finished With Inflation Fight.

Data: A surprisingly strong bounce in¬†German¬†exports left the German trade balance with a solid surplus.¬†China¬†Services PMI readings also looked pretty strong ‚Äď acceleration in activity.¬†Swiss CPI inflation held steady at 3.4% y/y.
 
  • USDIndex¬†managed to climb back over¬†106.000¬†but it was weaker overnight, holding the 105.000 handle for a third straight day.¬†YEN¬†has given up some of its haven bid &¬†EUR¬†and¬†GBP¬†have also slumped.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA30¬†tumbled -1.23% (32.4K),¬†USA500¬†off -0.67% (4.1K) and¬†USA100¬†-0.16% lower (below 13K).
  • Yields¬†10-year has already corrected -3.5 bp at 2.71% today and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.8 bp at 0.79%.
  • Oil ‚Äststeady at $94.00 from $96.30 ahead of the OPEC+. It is likely to keep output unchanged in September, or raise it slightly.
  • Gold ‚Ästrose in the morning to $1768 after a sharp decline yesterday.
  • Bitcoin¬†directionless, at 22.98K.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†dip to 1.0155 zone,¬†USDJPY¬†is at 133.18, as haven flows into the Yen have receded. Cable turns below 1.2200 again.
Today ‚Äď OPEC+¬†meeting, EU Retail Sales and US ISM Services.¬†Earnings:¬†CVS Health, Booking Holdings, Moderna, Regeneron etc.

2022-08-03_10-32-23.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR (-0.70%) posted an evening start pattern this morning at 16.70. MAs flattened, MACD lines held negative , RSI 53, OS & falling, H4 ATR 0.12128, Daily ATR 0.26199.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 4th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 4 ‚Äď BOE Day!


UK-696x364.jpg
USDIndex¬†firmed to¬†106.82¬†on Fed outlook and solid data before sliding to 106.38 at the close. Yields spiked on top of the heavy losses Tuesday (10yr 2.51%), then slipped again on strong factory orders data, with an eye on Friday‚Äôs NFP which will partly determine the magnitude of Fed tightening (10yr 2.7191%).¬†US Stocks¬†supported by good earnings news, and gains accelerated after solid data, shrugging off the jump in bond yields as the Fed funds futures market repriced for a 50-50 potential for a 75 bp September rate hike. European FUTS also higher.¬†Oil¬†dipped to $90.35 after OPEC+ disappointed and agreed to a ‚Äúvery small increase‚ÄĚ in September output of 100k barrels per day ‚Äď the smallest output increase in its history.¬†Gold¬†holds at $1770. Today ‚Äď BOE expected to hike by 50 bp but stresses data dependency of further tightening moves.

Overnight: US ISM-NMI services index rise to 56.7 from a 2-year low, US factory orders beat estimates climbed 2.0%. The rise joins big declines for the ISM, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed and Philly Fed, but gains for the Richmond Fed and Empire State, to leave an 8-month producer sentiment pull-back from robust November peaks. Surging interest rates and a flattening in real household spending as prices rise are aggravating the downtrend, though sentiment also faces support as businesses continue to restock.
 
  • USDIndex¬†is holding above 106 at currently 106.30.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA30¬†rose 1.29% (32.74K),¬†USA500¬†rallied to 1.59% (4.15K) and¬†USA100¬†surged 2.59%.
  • Yields¬†10-year lifted 2.5 bp to 2.73% and rates are also higher in Japan and Australia. The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.863% though after another contraction in German manufacturing orders flagged recession risks for the region.
  • Oil ‚Ästdips to at $90.35.¬†OPEC+¬†dissapointed and agreed to a ‚Äúvery small increase‚ÄĚ in September output of 100k barrels per day ‚Äď the smallest ouput increase in its history.
  • Gold ‚Ästsupprted by pullback in yields at $1770.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†dip to looks weak at 1.0163 and¬†Cable¬†is at 1.2147.¬†USDJPY¬†has lifted to¬†134.20¬†as recent haven flows into the yen recede.¬†AUD¬†and¬†NZD¬†regained some ground as global risk sentiment improved a little and a record Australian trade surplus underlined the natural inflows supporting the currency.
Today ‚ÄstThe¬†BoE expected to hike by 50 bp¬†but with a stress on the data dependency of further tightening moves. Front loading the tightening cycle also may also make sense in light of the leadership contest, with Liz Truss, the favorite to succeed Johnson mulling a shake up of the BoE. Investors are also waiting for details on the BoE‚Äôs plans for gilt sales. Governor Bailey previously indicated that the balance sheet will shrink at a pace of GBP 50-100 bln in the first year ‚Äď including redemptions.

2022-08-04_10-31-10.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.99%) reverted week’s losses and currently at 84.47. MAs aligned higher, MACD lines rising, RSI 76. H1 ATR 0.202, Daily ATR 0.993.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 8th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 8 ‚Äď USD holds post NFP bid.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
USDIndex¬†held onto NFP inspired bid trades at¬†106.40,¬†from 106.80. NFP big¬†beat¬†across the board; headline more than double expectations at 528K, June revised 26K higher, Unemployment fell (3.5%) and Earnings rose (5.2%) = pressure back on Fed for 75bp hike in Sept. Recession ‚Äď what Recession?¬†US Stocks¬†slipped led by tech.¬†TSLA ‚Äď6.6% (3-1 stock split 25/8),¬†TWTR¬†+3.56%,¬†META ‚Äď2.00%,¬†LYFT¬†+16.8% ($1bn profit expected 2024),¬†AMZN¬†-1.2% (to buy¬†iRobot¬†$1.7bn) Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng¬†-1.02%,¬†Nikkei¬†+0.29%). European FUTS also mixed.¬†Yields¬†rallied (10yr 2.8287%)¬†Oil¬†under $90,¬†Gold¬†under $1770 and¬†BTC¬†moved up to $23.5k.

Berkshire Hathaway¬†posted $43.8 bn loss on stock market declines.¬†MUSK¬†wants¬†TWTR¬†deal to go ahead if they can prove the % of real accounts, wants public debate with TWTR CEO. FED‚Äôs¬†Bowman¬†expects ‚Äúmore 75bp hikes‚ÄĚ.¬†CFTC¬†Net Longs in USD¬†reduced¬†last week.¬†Chinese¬†exports hit record 5- mth high Trade balance back over $101 bn.¬†Biden¬†gets his $430bn Climate, Healthcare & Tax Bill through the Senate,¬†China¬†continues¬†exercises around Taiwan for 5th day.

Week Ahead¬†‚Äď Highlight will be¬†US CPI¬†on Wednesday which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and¬†8.7%¬†y/y.
 
  • USDIndex¬†rallied to 106.80 post NFP holds at 106.45 now.¬†YEN¬†underperformed in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed lower -6.75 pts (+-0.16%) (4145), US500FUTS at¬†4150¬†now.¬†4175 key resistance remains.¬†S&P500¬†gained +0.4% for the week,¬†NASDAQ¬†+2.2%.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield rallied into close.¬†The 2/10yr. yield curve is now 40bp¬†inverted. 30yr back over 3.00%.
  • Oil ‚Ästdeclined to $86.96 Friday back to $89.60 now and remains under $90.00.
  • Gold ‚Ästtopped at $1794 (50 day MA) in early Friday trades before tanking to under $1770. Trades at $1775 now, 20-day MA $1757.
  • Bitcoin¬†dipped to $22.7K Friday, before strong weekend rally, trades at $23.7k now.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†down to¬†1.0177,¬†USDJPY¬†rallied 1.57% on Friday ‚Äď trades at¬†135.50¬†now.¬†Cable¬†tested to important¬†1.2000¬†zone on Friday ‚Äď recovered to 1.2080 now.
Overnight¬†‚Äď JPY¬†Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9.¬†NZD¬†Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% &¬†CHF¬†Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.

Today ‚ÄstEZ Sentix Investor Confidence,¬†Earnings¬†from BioNTech, Barrick Gold, Porsche & Siemens Energy.

2022-08-08_09-41-43.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%). Bounced from 92.50 support on Friday to test key resistance and 7-day high today at 94.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive and signal line rising, RSI 69.44 rising & testing OB, H1 ATR 0.192, Daily ATR 1.218.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 9th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 9 ‚Äď USD & Stocks Dip.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg
USDIndex¬†slipped to test¬†106.00,¬†before recovering to 106.20.¬†US Stocks¬†opened positively but closed flat for the day. NVDA ‚Äď6.3%,¬†Novavax¬†-5.01%,¬†AMC¬†+8.03%,¬†GM¬†+4.16%. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng¬†flat,¬†Nikkei¬†-0.88%). European FUTS also mixed.¬†Yields¬†fell into close (10yr 2.7657%),¬†Oil¬†bounces close to 2% to recoup the $90 handle,¬†Gold¬†rallied over 1% from $1770 support and¬†BTC¬†moved up to test key $24K area.

China continues exercises around Taiwan for 6th day, Russia installs more troops around captured key Ukrainian nuclear power plant, as US promises Ukraine another $1 billion in military aid.

Week Ahead¬†‚Äď Highlight of the week is¬†US CPI¬†tomorrow which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and¬†8.7%¬†y/y.
 
  • USDIndex¬†tested down to 106.00 after blockbuster NFP on Friday and holds 106.20 now.¬†AUD & NZD¬†underperformed in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed flat -5.13pts (-0.12%) (4140), tested & rejected 4175 resistance intraday. US500FUTS at¬†4144¬†now. 100 MA at 4100.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield fell into close as Treasuries eased with USD. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 44bp inverted yesterday. 10yr closed 2.765%, trades at 2.76% now.
  • Oil ‚Ästrallied from 6-month lows under $87.00 again to test last weeks support at $90.70, holds at $90.00.
  • Gold ‚Ästrallied from $1770, support to $1788 highs now. 20-day MA $1757.
  • Bitcoin¬†surged to $24.2K Monday, before trading at $23.7k now.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†back over¬†1.02000,¬†USDJPY¬†rejected 135.50 Monday back to¬†135.00¬†now.¬†Cable¬†tested up to 1.2130 back to 1.2080 support now.
Overnight¬†‚Äď UK¬†July Retail Sales beat (+1.6% vs. -1.3%),¬†AUD¬†Consumer Confidence in line (-3%).

Today ‚ÄstEIA STEO, Supply from UK, Germany & US.

2022-08-09_10-01-23.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.36%). Bounced from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but signal line rising, RSI 53.62 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00161, Daily ATR 0.0134.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 10th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 10 ‚Äď Dollar, Stocks & Yields Consolidate Ahead of CPI.


inflation_1200x628_2-696x364.png
USDIndex¬†slipped under¬†106.00,¬†yesterday before again recovering to 106.20.¬†US Stocks¬†traded lower all day ‚Äď dragged down by Semiconductors¬†(NASDAQ¬†-1.19%). MUSK¬†to sell another $6.9 bn worth of¬†TSLA¬†stock (-2.44%).¬†Intel¬†-2.43%,¬†NVDA¬†-3.97%,¬†Roblox¬†-3.17%,¬†OXY¬†+3.95%. Asian markets lower too (Hang Seng¬†-2.45%,¬†Nikkei¬†-0.68%). European FUTS also lower.¬†Yields¬†rose into close +1.16% (10yr 2.797%),¬†Oil¬†has declined back under the $90 handle,¬†Gold¬†sank to $1788 support and¬†BTC¬†has moved back $22.7K area.

Biden announces a $280bn investment in high tech to compete with China; China maintains drills and firing around Taiwan.
 
  • USDIndex¬†tested down to 105.80 but has recovered the 106.00-20 range today ahead of US CPI later.¬†AUD¬†underperformed in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed down -17.59pts (-0.42%) (4122), US500FUTS at¬†4118¬†now. 100 MA at 4100.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield rose into close as USD recovered. The 2/10yr. yield curve moved as much as 45bp inverted yesterday. 10yr trades down -0.25% at 2.79% now.
  • Oil ‚Ästrallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.60 before declining to $89.60 now.
  • Gold ‚Ästrallied & spiked to¬†$1800¬†resistance before declining back to support at $1788 again. 20-day MA now $1761.
  • Bitcoin‚Äôs¬†surge to $24.2K Monday; declined further today to $22.6 earlier, back to test $23k now.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†holds over¬†1.02000, at 1.0210,¬†USDJPY¬†continues to pivots around¬†135.00¬†and¬†Cable¬†does the same around 1.2080, in thin August markets.
Overnight¬†‚Äď JPY¬†PPI missed (8.6% vs 9.4%),¬†China¬†CPI & PPI both weaker too (2.7% vs 2.9% & 4.2% vs 6.1%) respectively.¬†German¬†CPI (Final) in line¬†0.9% m/m & 8.5% y/y.

Today ‚Äď US CPI,¬†Speeches from BoE‚Äôs Pill, Fed‚Äôs Evans & Kashkari.¬†Earnings¬†from¬†Disney,¬†Honda, Fox, Aviva, Evonik & E.ON.

2022-08-10_09-20-23.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%). Continued its bounce from 1.4580 support on Monday after declining from 1.4775 highs on Friday. Testing 1.4700 zone now. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram now positive & signal line rising, RSI 61.83 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00148, Daily ATR 0.0132.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 11th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 11 ‚Äď USD & Yields tank, Stocks rally as US CPI cools.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

USDIndex tanked to 104.50 from 106.20, before recovering, Yields & the VIX dropped to 4 mth lows and Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.89%, now +20% from June lows). Cooler US CPI was the catalyst and expectations the FED is less likely to have to raise rates by 75 bp in September. Asian markets followed through too, (Hang Seng +2.08%, Nikkei closed). European FUTS also higher. Oil pushed up to the $92 handle, Gold sank to $1786 and BTC moved higher again to breach $24K area.

Fedspeak ‚Äď voiced caution ‚Äď Kashkari¬†now a BIG HAWK talked of being ‚Äúfar, far away from declaring victory over inflation‚ÄĚ and wants at least another 140 bp this year and sees rates topping at 4.4% in 2023,¬†Evans¬†(centrist sees rates at 3.4% by December and¬†Daly¬†‚Äúnot anywhere near done with inflation battle‚ÄĚ.¬†Cleveland Fed¬†‚Äď ‚Äúinflationary pressures remain broad based‚ÄĚ.
 
  • USDIndex¬†plunged -1.6% as broad based USD selling took hold. More hawkish Fed comments helped lift the index to¬†105.20¬†now.¬†AUD¬†underperformed in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed up 87.77pts (+2.13%) (4210), US500FUTS at¬†4227¬†now.¬†DIS¬†Big beat, Disney+ bigger than NETFLIX! & will raise prices from December ‚Äď Shares up 3.98% on Wednesday & 6.85% after hours. Big tech all closed up 2%+.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield sank but recovered to 2.78% at close. The 2/10yr. yield curve also remained firmly inverted at 43.8 bp.
  • Oil ‚Ästrallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.00, holds the zone now.
  • Gold ‚Ästrallied & spiked to¬†$1800¬†resistance again before declining back under to support at $1788, 20-day MA now $1766.
  • Bitcoin¬†has surged to $24.5K now from $22.6k lows yesterday.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†breached 1.0350 trades at¬†1.0300,¬†USDJPY¬†tanked from¬†135.00¬†pivot to¬†132.00¬†back to 132.70 now and¬†Cable¬†did the same rallying from 1.2080, pivot to¬†1.2260¬†resistance & back to 1.2215 now.
8.5% y/y.

Today ‚ÄstUS Weekly Claims &¬†PPI, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, Banxico Policy Announcement.

2022-08-11_10-33-10.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.51%). Recovery from spike lower yesterday continues, back to 0.6040 now from 0.5945. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram now positive & signal line neutral, RSI 61.57 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00558.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is
Date : 11th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 11 ‚Äď USD & Yields tank, Stocks rally as US CPI cools.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

USDIndex tanked to 104.50 from 106.20, before recovering, Yields & the VIX dropped to 4 mth lows and Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.89%, now +20% from June lows). Cooler US CPI was the catalyst and expectations the FED is less likely to have to raise rates by 75 bp in September. Asian markets followed through too, (Hang Seng +2.08%, Nikkei closed). European FUTS also higher. Oil pushed up to the $92 handle, Gold sank to $1786 and BTC moved higher again to breach $24K area.

Fedspeak ‚Äď voiced caution ‚Äď Kashkari¬†now a BIG HAWK talked of being ‚Äúfar, far away from declaring victory over inflation‚ÄĚ and wants at least another 140 bp this year and sees rates topping at 4.4% in 2023,¬†Evans¬†(centrist sees rates at 3.4% by December and¬†Daly¬†‚Äúnot anywhere near done with inflation battle‚ÄĚ.¬†Cleveland Fed¬†‚Äď ‚Äúinflationary pressures remain broad based‚ÄĚ.
 
  • USDIndex¬†plunged -1.6% as broad based USD selling took hold. More hawkish Fed comments helped lift the index to¬†105.20¬†now.¬†AUD¬†underperformed in Asian session.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA500¬†closed up 87.77pts (+2.13%) (4210), US500FUTS at¬†4227¬†now.¬†DIS¬†Big beat, Disney+ bigger than NETFLIX! & will raise prices from December ‚Äď Shares up 3.98% on Wednesday & 6.85% after hours. Big tech all closed up 2%+.
  • Yields¬†10-year yield sank but recovered to 2.78% at close. The 2/10yr. yield curve also remained firmly inverted at 43.8 bp.
  • Oil ‚Ästrallied to test 200-hr MA at $92.00, holds the zone now.
  • Gold ‚Ästrallied & spiked to¬†$1800¬†resistance again before declining back under to support at $1788, 20-day MA now $1766.
  • Bitcoin¬†has surged to $24.5K now from $22.6k lows yesterday.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†breached 1.0350 trades at¬†1.0300,¬†USDJPY¬†tanked from¬†135.00¬†pivot to¬†132.00¬†back to 132.70 now and¬†Cable¬†did the same rallying from 1.2080, pivot to¬†1.2260¬†resistance & back to 1.2215 now.
8.5% y/y.

Today ‚ÄstUS Weekly Claims &¬†PPI, IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, Banxico Policy Announcement.

2022-08-11_10-33-10.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.51%). Recovery from spike lower yesterday continues, back to 0.6040 now from 0.5945. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram now positive & signal line neutral, RSI 61.57 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00080, Daily ATR 0.00558.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 12th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 12.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg
USDIndex lifted to 105 after dropping to a low of 104.50 after the early data, but is still heading for a weekly loss amid trimmed back expectations for the Fed’s tightening path. US Yields down, but the curve inverted further as the short end underperformed, Yields in Australia and to a lesser extent New Zealand backed up today. US Stocks closed mixed, while in Asia, Stocks in Japan rallied in catch up trade on their return from yesterday’s holiday, but elsewhere the picture looked patchy overnight. The ASX lost -0.5% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.37% and down -0.06% respectively, after a narrowly mixed close on Wall Street. European and US futures are posting modest gains though. Oil pushed up to the $94 handle after the IEA upgraded its demand outlook yesterday, Gold sank to $1790 and BTC steady.

Fed’s Daly told Bloomberg yesterday that there is an improvement in inflation numbers, but repeated that its too early to declare victory over inflation, repeating that her base case is for a half-percentage point hike at the next meeting.

UK GDP contracted -0.1% q/q in the second quarter of the year, in line with our forecast and a tad less bleak than Bloomberg consensus, which predicted a contraction of -0.2% q/q. The -0.6% m/m decline in the monthly GDP number for June was sobering though and backed the BoE’s bleak outlook for the economy, which seems to be heading for a recession amid the cost of living crisis, the fallout from Brexit and political turmoil in Westminster.
 
  • USDIndex¬†dropped to a low of 104.50 after the early data, but bounced to 105.18 by the close 4%.
  • Equities¬†‚ÄstUSA100¬†off -0.58%, additionally hurt by the run up in rates. The¬†USA500¬†was -0.07% lower, and the¬†USA30¬†was 0.08% firmer.
  • Yields¬†10-year rate closed 12 bps higher at 2.89%. The 30-year cheapened 14 bps to 3.165%. The 2-year was up 2 bps to 3.235%. The curve was less inverted at -35 bps versus -44 bps Wednesday.
  • Oil ‚Äst$93.90, Brent at $99.22 per barrel, after the IEA upgraded its demand outlook yesterday.
  • Gold ‚Äďhas been capped and it saw a low of $1783.67, before backing up to now $1790.87, as Treasury yields nudged lower.
  • Bitcoin¬†struggling to break 25K resistance.
  • FX Markets¬†‚ÄstEURUSD¬†down to¬†1.0300,¬†USDJPY¬†steady at 133.35 and¬†Cable¬†holds at 1.2170 floor.
Today ‚ÄstUS Michigan Index.

2022-08-12_10-37-43.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.70%) back to July’s highs at 86.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD lines extending higher, RSI 72.80 & rising, H1 ATR 0.167, Daily ATR 0.976. Key Resistance at 86.56.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  • 2 weeks later...


Market Update ‚Äď August 24 ‚Äď USD Holds at Highs, Stocks Slip, Oil Rallies.

daily-market-update-696x364.png

  • USDIndex ‚Äď volatile day ‚Ästnew 20-yr highs at¬†109.20¬†declined to¬†108.00¬†after weak PMI & Housing Data before Kashkari ‚Äúbiggest fear is inflation will be more persistent‚ÄĚ.
  • EUR¬†‚Äď Weighed by weak PMI & energy crisis and 3 day shutdown of Nord Stream 1, 3rd day under Parity¬†(1.000)¬†at¬†0.9940.
  • JPY¬†holds between¬†137.00 & 136.00
  • GBP¬†also weighed by weak PMI data, energy crisis, weak government & widening strike action.Trades at¬†1.1800
  • Stocks¬†US stocks flat into close. (S&P500¬†-9.26pts (-0.22%)¬†4128) ‚ÄstBiggest movers ‚Äď Oil stocks¬†+4-6%, TWTR¬†-7.32%.
  • Oil¬†continued to rally, moved +4%¬†Tuesday to¬†$94.00¬†following Saudi ‚ÄúCUTTING production‚ÄĚ comments.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď support at¬†$1736¬†trades at¬†$1745
  • BTC ‚Ästranging between¬†21k & 21.5K.

2022-08-24_08-18-49.jpg

Overnight ‚ÄstAsian equity markets fell for an eighth straight day. European FUTS also lower.

Today ‚Äď US Durable Goods.

2022-08-24_08-18-06.jpg

2022-08-24_09-36-12.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.45%). Rejected 94.80 again yesterday and trades under 94.40 now. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative & signal line falling, RSI 40.36 & falling, H1 ATR 0.153, Daily ATR 0.96.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission

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Date : 25th August 2022.

Market Update ‚Äď August 25 ‚Äď USD Slips, Stocks Gain ‚Äď Jackson Hole Ahead.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg
  • USDIndex ‚Äď another volatile day ‚Ästdown from¬†109.00¬†declined to¬†108.20¬†after mixed Durable Goods & more Housing Data. ‚ÄstJackson Hole in focus.
  • EUR¬†‚Äď Remains weighed by energy crisis and record high GAS prices. German GDP helps a lift back to¬†1.000,¬†but in 4th day below this key level.
  • JPY¬†holds between¬†137.00 & 136.00¬†having failed to breach¬†137.00¬†yesterday.
  • GBP¬†also weighed by energy crisis & widening strike action.Trades at¬†1.1850¬†with¬†1.1800¬†now support.
  • Stocks¬†US stocks gained into close. (S&P500 +12.00pts (+0.3%)¬†4140) ‚ÄstBiggest movers ‚Äď Peloton & BBBY (+20 & +18%) ;¬†Revlon & Nordstrom¬†(-11% & ‚Äď20%).¬†Nvidia¬†-4.56%¬†after hours following Earnings miss.
  • Oil¬†continued to rally, more chatter of OPEC+ production cuts, BP closing refineries due to fires and a big fall in inventories. Up¬†0.5%¬†over¬†$95¬†to¬†$95.60.
  • Gold¬†‚Äď bounced from support at¬†$1736¬†and¬†$1745¬†and trades at¬†$1758.
  • BTC ‚Ästover¬†21-21.5K¬†range at¬†21.6k.
2022-08-25_08-48-21.jpg

Overnight ‚ÄstAsian equity markets recovered after nine days lower, European FUTS also higher.¬†NZD¬†Retail Sales miss significantly (-2.3% vs. 1.7%),¬†JPY¬†SPPI misses (2.1% vs. 2.2%)¬†German¬†Final Q2 GDP a tick better at (0.1% vs. 0.0%).

2022-08-25_09-08-42.jpg

Today ‚ÄstGerman Ifo,¬†US GDP¬†(2nd), PCE Prices Prelim,¬†Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB, CBRT & Banxico Minutes.

2022-08-25_09-42-58.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.88%). Rally from 0.6850 & 0.6900 support continues, trades at 0.6975 now. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & signal line rising, RSI 73.60 OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.00137, Daily ATR 0.00823.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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