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Gold & Silver Market Update by Solidecn.com


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XAGUSD
Investors prefer the US dollar over silver

The XAGUSD pair shows a local downtrend after reaching year highs around $27 per ounce. Now the asset is correcting downwards, being at 25.56.

Despite serious geopolitical tensions, the prospects for strengthening the position of silver remain low. The crisis in the energy market, caused by the refusal of the United States and some European countries to import Russian oil, will contribute to the growth of prices for "black gold" for a long time. Most investors will prefer to work with oil since the average volatility for the instrument allows traders to increase their capital from 5% to 10% daily, which is impossible to do in silver, which at best changes by 1 - 2% per week.

Also, investors are looking forward to the March 15 meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is likely to decide to raise interest rates, which historically is a negative signal for precious metals. After tightening monetary policy, the USD Index tends to rise, negatively affecting dollar-denominated silver contracts. Now it is around the psychological mark of 100 points, the prospect of reaching which will provoke investors into operations with the American currency.

Support and resistance
The price of the XAGUSD pair is moving above the wide sideways channel resistance line, rapidly approaching it. Technical indicators maintain a weakening buy signal: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range narrows, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is clearly overbought, being high in the buying zone.

Resistance levels: 26.4, 28.
Support levels: 25.3, 24.

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Gold Settles Near 2,000 USD

Volatility remains highly elevated, especially in commodities


Gold advanced 1% on Thursday, jumping back above the psychological 2,000 USD as the war in Ukraine and inflation concerns support the bullion.

Danske Bank said in a note that it does not expect the Russia-Ukraine conflict to spread to other countries and sees commodity prices broadly moderating over the next six months. 

"We expect the Ukrainian and Russian leaders to agree on a truce eventually. However, we also believe that the Ukrainian government will be forced to painful concessions in the absence of direct military intervention by the West/NATO," it said.

Later today, the US CPI inflation for February is due, seen rising further to 7.9% yearly, while the core inflation is expected to accelerate to 6.4%. As a result, the Fed will be forced to raise rates faster as inflation rises, potentially moving beyond 10% on soaring commodities.

The short-term support could be seen at yesterday/today's lows near 1,975 USD. As long as the metal trades above that, the outlook seems bullish, likely targeting the current cycle highs at 2,060 USD.

However, if markets receive more optimistic news from the diplomatic talks between Russia and Ukraine, profit-taking could bring gold back toward 1,900 USD.

 

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XAUUSD is in a correction, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, and the correctional wave iv of (iii) is developing. 

If the assumption is correct, after the end of the correction, the pair will grow to the levels of 2150 - 2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1875.

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Gold prices are actively corrected

Gold prices are developing a corrective downtrend during the morning session, updating local lows from March 4 and rapidly retreating from their record highs, the growth to which was provoked by Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Now, the demand for risky assets is gradually recovering, as traders are counting on significant progress in the negotiation process and some stabilization of the global economy if, after a truce is reached, part of the blocking sanctions against the Russian Federation are lifted.

In turn, the development of "bearish" trend in the asset is supported by the strengthening of the US dollar on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Current market forecasts suggest a 25 basis point hike in interest rates, marking the welcome start of a monetary policy adjustment cycle. In the latest commentary by the Chairman of the department, Jerome Powell, he mentioned multiple increases in rates this year, taking into account rising inflation, which, in turn, will become a catalyst for strengthening the national currency. At the same time, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has already risen by 13 basis points, hitting a 32-month high, and the UK gold rate has corrected to its highest level since 2018.

As for macroeconomic statistics from China, it turned out to be positive: Retail Sales in February increased by 6.7% after rising by 1.7% in the previous month, while analysts had expected a 3.0% increase.

  • Resistance levels: 1952, 1974, 2000, 2015.
  • Support levels: 1918, 1900, 1877, 1860.

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Silver, the price develops a strong "bearish" momentum

At the end of February, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, after which large-scale anti-Russian sanctions were introduced, and in Europe, there was a record increase in gas and oil prices. Now the situation has somewhat stabilized: although the special operation continues, investors hope that soon Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will halt hostilities and decrease the degree of global geopolitical tension.

Additional pressure on the quotes of the instrument is exerted by the expectations of the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy issues. Interest rates are forecast to rise by 25 basis points today, kicking off a cycle of national monetary policy adjustments. A subsequent press conference by Regulator Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to raise the issue of the impact of the military conflict on the US economy.

Resistance levels: 25, 25.28, 25.58, 26.
Support levels: 24.67, 24.37, 24, 23.6.

silver.png.71ab116bc5231daca437595070fcf64d.png

 

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Gold, a backlash against the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US Fed

The official said that the regulator is ready to raise the rate immediately by 50 basis points at one or more of the next meetings and will soon launch a program to reduce the balance sheet, according to the latest estimates, reaching 9T dollars. Also, The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts forecast two adjustments of 50 basis points at once from the next meeting and then four increases of 25 basis points before the end of the year. The "hawkish" tone of Powell's remarks spurred US bonds higher and affected the bond market, with the US dollar index turning sideways around 98.500 amid heightened investor attention to risky assets and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.81%. Against this background, gold has expectedly declined, although the demand for shelter assets has generally remained very high in recent days.

The metal is supported by the expectations of new packages of EU sanctions against the Russian economy. This week, EU leaders will meet to discuss the fifth package of restrictive measures that could include a broader ban on Russian energy imports. It is worth noting that there is no single position on this issue: Germany opposes a complete ban while not excluding the possibility of finding alternatives.

Resistance levels: 1930, 1952.5, 1974.2, 2000.
Support levels: 1900, 1877.6, 1860, 1840.

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Gold, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the development of the wave v of (iii) has started. 

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of $2150 - $2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is $1894.

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XAUUSD, flat dynamics in the short term

Gold prices are consolidating during the Asian session, holding near 1920. The day before, the instrument showed a rather active decline, which was caused by another increase in the attractiveness of the US currency for investors. The US dollar is strengthening amid expectations of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, which may raise the rate by 50 basis points at once during the May meeting. In addition, the demand for the US currency is growing due to an increase in the yield of treasury bonds: for 10-year securities it rose above 2.55% for the first time since May 2019. Return of asset quotes above 1950 will provide stronger support for gold, which may then rush to last week's highs around 1966.

In turn, the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains quite high amid the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. Traders are disappointed in the negotiation process and no longer expect that the parties will be able to reach a peace agreement in the near future.

It is also worth noting that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and the World Gold Council (WGC) intend to create a blockchain-based database that will allow tracking the origin and movement of gold bars around the world. The initiative is aimed at preventing trading in illegally mined metal. At the moment, the market is recording an increase in the number of bars with counterfeit stamps with logos of large manufacturing enterprises.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short/ultra-short term. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal. Stochastic, having retreated from its highs, shows an active downtrend, signaling in favor of the further development of "bearish" trend in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1930, 1952, 1974.2, 2000.
Support levels: 1900, 1877, 1860, 1840.

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Gold, Fibonacci levels analysis

Daily overview
On the daily chart, the price continues to test 1921 (correction 50.0%), and the consolidation below it allows a decline to 1890 (correction 61.8%), 1850 (the area of January highs). However, an ascending fan may prevent negative dynamics. The key "bullish" level is 1951 (correction 38.2%), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands. Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 1990 (correction 23.6%), 2050 (correction 0.0%). 

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are horizontal, Stochastic reverses upwards, but the MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone.

gold-1.png.02590635b59a6a8162d4ef0a8f2b4916.png

Weekly overview
On the weekly chart, the price tested 2033 (correction 0.0%) but is now correcting downwards. A break of 1890 (38.2% ascending fan line) further declines to 1835 (23.6% correction, middle line of Bollinger Bands). Otherwise, the quotes will be able to return to 1990 (upper line of Bollinger bands), 2033. 

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, Stochastic is directed downwards, and the MACD histogram increases in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 1951, 1990, 2050 | Support levels: 1921, 1890, 1835

gold-2.png.0149dfd739aa60065f59bdb6216a171e.png

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Gold, the pair may grow

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the development of the wave v of (iii) is starting. 

If the assumption is correct, Gold will grow to the levels of $2150 - $2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is $1890.

gold.png.764aee3794539ad508103ca77b3f6674.png

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Gold, rising US Treasury yields are pushing the instrument lower

Gold prices are developing "bearish" dynamics, testing the level of 1920.00 for a breakdown. XAU/USD builds on the downward momentum that was formed at the end of last week, when the US currency received support after the publication of a strong report on US Non-Farm Payrolls and an increase in Treasury yields amid market expectations of a tightening of the US Federal Reserve policy, which could become a catalyst for raising interest rates soon.

As expected, the economy created a little less than 500K new jobs, but at the same time showed a steady increase in Average Hourly Earnings and a drop in the Unemployment Rate from 3.8% to 3.6% (forecasts suggested a decrease to only 3.7%). Strong data confirmed the likelihood that the US regulator will decide to raise interest rates during its May meeting by 50 basis points at once. At the same time, markets are also reacting with a noticeable increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds: on 10-year securities, it rose to 2.414% on Monday morning after closing at 2.375% at the end of last week.

In turn, gold is still supported by the tense situation around Ukraine. The positive impetus received from the results of the next round of talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Turkey at the beginning of last week seems to have leveled off after the appearance of new evidence of the aggravation of the situation in certain territories of Ukraine and, in particular, in the Bucha district. Meanwhile, Western countries have announced their readiness to impose new sanctions against the Russian Federation, which threatens to further complicate the situation with rising energy prices. Against this backdrop, gold quotes will continue their uptrend, as investors will redirect their capital to safe-haven assets in order to minimize risks.

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Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range is slightly narrowing from above, reflecting ambiguous dynamics of trading in the short term. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, after a short rise at the beginning of the last trading week, is again reversing into a horizontal plane. It is necessary to wait for the trade signals from technical indicators to become clear.

Resistance levels: 1930, 1952, 1974, 2000 | Support levels: 1900, 1877, 1860, 1840

gold-2.png.ecccbc32b5810bf75215b17fcebd097b.png

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Central banks continue selling gold

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Yesterday, the World Gold Council (WGC) provided a preliminary report on the market state. The organization noted that in the first quarter of 2022, there was a trend for the sale of physical gold from the reserves of central banks, and this is the first period since 2020 when such a trend has been recorded. Most actively in February, metal was sold by such countries as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In particular, Uzbekistan reduced its reserves by 22 tons, and Kazakhstan – by 21 tons, and for it gold reserves became the lowest since 2020. Among the bullion buyers during this period, only India and Ireland were noted, which replenished their stocks by a modest 2.6 tons and 1 ton, respectively.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data confirm the global sell-off trend. According to the report for the last week, the number of positions of buyers secured by money amounted to 84.554K, while the same figure for sellers reached 335.029K. At the same time, the weekly change in positions indicated an increase in sellers' contracts by 772 and a decrease by 5.858K contracts among buyers.

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The price is correcting within the local Triangle pattern on the daily chart. Technical indicators maintain a weakened buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator have come close to the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has moved into the sell zone, having formed the first bars below the transition level.

Resistance levels: 1957, 2050 | Support levels: 1900, 1830

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Gold, the pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the development of the wave v of (iii) has started. 

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2150 - 2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1890.

gold.png.07620bdfaf715ddaeca65e9d041ebbc0.png

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gold-forum.thumb.jpg.6bb02f3df4726419a27a5023feda943e.jpg

XAUUSD shows moderate growth during Asian trading, testing the level of 1960 again. The day before, the instrument has already made attempts to consolidate above it, having updated local highs from March 14. Gold prices briefly rose to a monthly high on fears of increased inflationary risks in Europe and the United States, which was the reason for the purchase of the metal, but closer to the end of the Monday afternoon session, the "bulls" lost most of their gains. Financial markets are under pressure from geopolitical tensions and the desire of central banks to tighten monetary policy amid soaring consumer prices and associated fears of a recession. This, in turn, continued to benefit traditional safe-haven assets and pushed spot prices higher into the area of 1958 - 1960. The US dollar is also stable and is hovering around high levels around 100 in the USD Index.

Tomorrow, investors are waiting for the publication of inflation data from the US. Despite a number of active measures taken by the US Federal Reserve to contain it, analysts expect the annual value to accelerate to 8.4% in March. The biggest contributor is likely to come from higher energy prices as commodity markets surged to new record highs due to the sanctions policy against the Russian economy. According to the published minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC), the regulator intends to reduce the balance sheet by 95 billion dollars every month, starting from May of this year, and accelerate the rate of interest rate hike to 0.50%. In general, officials are optimistic about changing the current parameters to fight inflation, believing that the US economy is strong enough not to experience a recession in the face of geopolitical tensions.

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Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is slightly widening slightly but does not conform to the development of the "bullish" sentiment yet. MACD indicator is growing, while preserving a rather stable buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic is showing similar dynamics; however, the indicator line is approaching its highs, indicating the risks of overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1,974, 2,000, 2,015, 2,030 | Support levels: 1,952, 1,930, 1,900, 1,877

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XAUUSD is correcting upwards at 1973. Yesterday, the World Gold Council (WGC) published a report on the state of the market in Q1 2022, which noted a clear positive momentum for the price of the precious metal.

According to the published report, the main influence on the quotes was the increased demand from ETF funds and private investors. In particular, the volume of gold held by ETF funds increased by 269 tons in the quarter alone compared to data at the end of 2021, which is the most dynamic increase since 2020. In addition, the US Mint noted the increased interest of market participants in bullion gold coins in Q1 2022, with total sales of 518K troy ounces, showing a record pace since 1999.

High demand for contracts is also confirmed by data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to last week's report, the number of net speculative positions in gold was 245.5K, well above the average of 200K at the end of January this year.

In addition, investors continue to evaluate data on March inflation in the United States, which reflected an increase in consumer prices by 8.5% in annual terms, which is the highest value since December 1981. At the same time, core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, slowed down somewhat compared to the February level. Now the market is waiting for decisive steps from the US Federal Reserve. In particular, the interest rate is expected to be raised by 50 basis points at once at the meeting in May.

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On the daily chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the global rising channel, being near the resistance line. Technical indicators maintain the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator again began to expand the range of fluctuations in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator moved into the buy zone, forming the first bar above the transition level.

Support levels: 1958, 1915 | Resistance levels: 1983, 2050

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XAUUSD, The pair may grow.

On the daily chart, the third wave of the higher level 3 of (5) develops, within which the wave iii of 3 forms. Now, the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii is developing, within which the wave iii of (iii) has formed, the correctional wave iv of (iii) has ended, and the wave v of (iii) is developing.

If the assumption is correct, the pair will grow to the levels of 2100 - 2200. In this scenario, critical stop loss level is 1890.45.

gold.png.2458fb224005e9fedb9034fb3312a989.png

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Gold, prices are approaching $2,000 again

XAUUSD shows moderate growth during the morning session, updating local highs from March 14. The "thin" market encourages the purchase of safe assets, so the US dollar and gold strengthen their positions. The precious metal is moving higher for the second week in a row, as statistics on consumer prices in the US, where inflation in March reached 8.5% on an annualized basis, which is the highest since 1981, increases the attractiveness of XAUUSD for hedging risks in anticipation of the next financial crisis. The situation on the market changes little, as the news background after the Easter week remains quite calm.

Demand for the metal is supported by general tension, which is expressed primarily by investors' concern about global inflation rates. Due to the military conflict in Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against the Russian economy, energy quotes rushed up sharply, which provoked an increase in consumer and production prices in the global economy, which had just begun to recover from the period of the coronavirus pandemic. Under these conditions, gold actively added in price. In turn, an increase in the yield of treasury bonds, as well as expectations of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve, is holding back "bullish" sentiment on the instrument. Monthly bonds showed the maximum increase, having added 8.68% and amounted to 0.4108%, while the yield on 10-year bonds increased by 2.01% to 2.864%.

Today's macroeconomic statistics from China did not support the instrument significantly. GDP in Q1 2022 showed a slowdown from 1.5% to 1.3%, which, however, turned out to be noticeably better than the expected 0.6%, while in annual terms, the Chinese economy accelerated from 4.0% to 4.8%, ahead of analysts' forecasts at 4.4%.

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Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is expanding but it fails to conform to the surge of "bullish" sentiments at the moment. MACD indicator is growing keeping a buy signal (located above the signal line). Stochastic retains an upward direction but is located in close proximity to its highs, which indicates the overbought instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 2000, 2015.3, 2030, 2050 | Support levels: 1974.22, 1952.53, 1930, 1900

gold-2.png.1f7ace9e98d417bdd1c3ef1204c87259.png

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Silver prices show a moderate decline during the Asian session, developing a strong "bearish" momentum formed the day before. The instrument is testing the level of 25 for a breakdown, updating local lows from April 12.

High US bond yields approaching multi-year highs (10-year bonds are trading around 2.95%), as well as the growth of the USD Index to the peaks of April 2020, are probably the main reasons why the "bulls" decided to take their profits. In addition, traders expect an early tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. The rate hike by 50 basis points, as well as the launch of the quantitative tightening program are expected already during the May meeting of the regulator. What is more, St. Louis Fed Chair James Bullard said on Monday that he is open to the theoretical possibility of a rate hike of up to 75 basis points at once, although this will not be considered a "main scenario".

Pressure on silver quotes is also exerted by not the most confident macroeconomic statistics from China. Data published earlier in the week showed a slowdown in Industrial Production in China in March from 7.5% to 5%, which, however, turned out to be better than market expectations at the level of 4.5%. Analysts attribute the slowdown in manufacturing activity in China to a new outbreak of coronavirus, as a result of which the Chinese authorities announced the introduction of quarantine in a number of provinces, following the policy of "zero tolerance".

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In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, but is quickly approaching its lows, indicating the growing risks of the oversold pound in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 25.35, 25.58, 26, 26.19 | Support levels: 25, 24.67, 24.42, 24

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No wonder commodities have been affected a lot by this Russia Ukraine war especially Gold and crude oil. All over the world we can see the impact of this war. Gold is considered a good hedge against inflation, increasing U.S. interest rates boost the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Investors also reduced bullion holdings as Ukraine and Russia were set for their first peace talks. April delivery gold futures last traded at US$1,920.80 per ounce, down 0.95% as of Tuesday at 5:33 PM AEDT. The prices are up 10.54% in the last one year.

Best gold stocks for 2022- https://kalkinemedia.com/ca/stocks/gold

 

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