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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair 

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1128.

·         EUR/USD stalls its strong intraday rally near 1.1200 round-figure mark.

·         Acceptance above 200-DMA support prospects for additional gains.

The EUR/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone through the early European session on Friday, albeit has retreated around 20-25 pips from the 1.1200 handle, or four-month tops.

Extremely overbought conditions on hourly charts seemed to be the only factor that kept a lid on any strong follow-through, rather prompted some profit-taking at higher levels.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1125 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1102. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1199 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1222

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3162.

·         Trades close to the top of a 1.3162/1.3516 range, after a hectic session

·         EUR/GBP is at the base of a 0.8278/0.8426 with huge flow for Asia

·         Bids at 1.3450 provided a base after initial jump - 1.3450 1BLN strikes

·         Early results support the exit poll prediction of an 86 Boris landslide

·         EU welcomes a strong UK mandate into upcoming trade talks

·         Charts show GBP trending higher, but over stretched short term

·         Stunning Conservative victory will totally change UK politics

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3170 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3061. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3524, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3633.

Important Economic Events of the day

·         EUR: EU Leaders Summit

·         JPY: BoJ Tankan Large Manufacturing Index

·         USD: Retail Sales m/m

·         USD: Retail Inventories m/m

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

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Date : 16th December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 16th December 2019.


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Following a busy week ending with a Conservative victory in the UK election and rising hopes of a potential trade deal between UK and China, attention turns to the BoJ, PBoC and BoE monetary policy meetings next week. However, the developments on the US-China trade front will remain front and centre.

Monday – 16 December 2019

  • Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08-30-09:00) – The prel. November manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.9 from 46.6, despite the signs that the weakness in manufacturing is starting to spread. The European PMI for December meanwhile is expected to released at 47.4.
  • Manufacturing PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK PMI is expected to register an upwards reading to 50.7 after the upwards revision last week at 48.9.

Tuesday – 17 December 2019

  • RBA Meeting’s Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The RBA minutes provides a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.
  • Employment and Earnings (GBP, 09:30) – Average earnings are expected to have increased by 3.8% in October, above the 3.6% the previous month. The ILO unemployment rate (3M) for October could rise at 3.9% from 3.8%.

Wednesday – 18 December 2019

  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The German Business Sentiment Index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. December’s numbers are expected unchanged.
  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK inflation is seen unchanged to the downside in December, at 1.5% y/y, the lowest rate seen since November 2016 and after 1.7% in September. The core should be steady as well at 1.7%.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Prices are expected to have eased slightly in December, with overall inflation expected to remain at 1% y/y, while core inflation at 1.3% y/y.
  • Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The overall Canadian CPI and core should hold close to target, while the November Core outcome is expected to slip to -0.2% following the 0.4% jump in October.

Thursday – 19 December 2019

  • Interest Rate Decision and Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – In the last meeting, BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying program. The central bank signaled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020”. BoJ Governor said in his statement that cutting rates further are a possible policy option, adding that he doesn’t think that Japan is near the reversal rate. He also said that he doesn’t think the BoJ needs to change the forward guidance now. Hence this is likely to remain the scenario in this week’s Monetary Policy Statement.
  • Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – BoE should remain on hold until Brexit has been resolved. Thus, consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting, however an uTwo of the nine-member MPC dissented in favour of cutting the repo rate by 25 bps

Friday – 20 December 2019

  • Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A Q3 GDP growth is expected up to 2.2% from 2.1%, with a -$1 bln trimming for factory inventories alongside a $4 bln hike for construction. The Q4 GDP growth estimate sits at 2.4%, with support from recent reports indicating a -4% Q4 drop in imports that adds to GDP, likely firmness in government purchases, a rebounding residential investment sector, and an expected bounce in equipment spending.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 17th December 2019.

Spectre of “No Deal” Brexit Back – 17th December 2019.


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The Pound is down 0.5% on the day against both the Dollar and Euro, and is off by 0.4% versus the Yen. The catalyst was news that UK prime minister Johnson will amend the withdrawal agreement bill to outlaw an extension in the transition period beyond the end of 2020.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 18th December 2019.

FX Update – GBP loses its Johnson Jump – 18th December 2019.

2019-12-18_10-23-34.jpg

GBPUSD, H4

Sterling posted fresh correction lows against the Dollar and Euro, among other currencies. Cable printed a six-day low at 1.3070, and EURGBP a two-week high at 0.8517. This follows UK prime minister Johnson’s revival of the no-deal Brexit threat yesterday, by pledging to modify the EU withdrawal agreement so that it legislates against any extension in the post-Brexit transition period beyond 2020. I doubt he’s serious, and such legislation could easily be reversed at will, given Johnson’s commanding parliamentary majority. His aim is clearly to strengthen his government’s negotiation hand with the EU, by arming it with a “walk away” option during upcoming negotiations for a new trade deal. he has no-doubt concluded that he got agreement on the his new Withdrawal agreement under a pressing timescale and both parties agreed compromises to push the October 12 document through.

What is clear is that a new trade deal should be able to be drawn up relatively quickly, though the 11 months still looks to be a tall order (witness the 17 months it took for the US and China to come up with a partial revision in the two’s trading terms). Unlike all of the other negotiations the EU has to date had with other nations and trading blocs, where they were starting a long way apart (totally different tariffs, quotas and systems), the UK and EU have 100% common features.

A fillip for Johnson was that all the ratings agencies are now more optimistic on the UK after the election. Both S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings improved their assessment of the UK’s credit outlook after Johnson’s Conservative Party won a majority in last week’s election. S&P changed the country outlook to stable from negative, with analysts seeing a diminished risk of a no-deal Brexit. Analysts at S&P said “Despite the government’s current stance, we expect that the UK will seek, and the EU will grant, an extension beyond December 2020 to negotiate the future relationship between the two.” Fitch meanwhile affirmed the AA rating and took the UK off Rating Watch Negative, thus removing the immediate threat of a downgrade, but the rating agency did maintain the negative outlook. S&P affirmed its credit rating of AA/A-1+. Fitch held the country at AA.

Elsewhere, EURCHF carved out a one-week low at 1.0912, though USDCHF managed to hold above the four-month low seen yesterday. EURUSD drifted lower after closing in New York yesterday just above 1.1100, and matched yesterday’s low at 1.1129. USDJPY edged out a two-day low at 109.41, which was lower mark of a 15-pip range. AUDUSD traded moderately softer, though remained above yesterday’s one-week at 0.6838, which was seen in the wake of the release of RBA minutes from the early-December policy, which showed that policymakers are open for a possible further cut in the cash rate at the next meeting in February.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 19th December 2019.

FX Update & BOC Preview – 19th December 2019.


[IMG]

GBPUSD, H1

The Dollar has traded moderately softer in thinning year-end markets. This has seen the narrow trade-weighted USD Index (DXY) ebb to a low of 97.30, down from the one-week high seen yesterday at 97.47.

[IMG]

A rebound in Cable has weighed on the US currency, with Sterling finding a footing after plunging by nearly 3.5% from last week’s post-UK election rally high at 1.3515. Cable’s low yesterday was 1.3060, and the pair has since recovered to the lower 1.3100s, though still remains over half a big figure below the levels that were prevailing ahead of the election.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee has amid its final meeting of the year, and will announce at 12:00 GMT in London today. No change to prevailing settings is widely anticipated, though there will be a focus on the two dissenters, Saunders and Haskell, who last month voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate, to see if they will maintain their dovish dissent in light of the strong victory of the Conservative Party at last week’s election. Either way, we expect the BoE to remain on a neutral footing heading into 2020, though, with inflation running at three-year lows at 1.5% y/y, comfortably below target, the BoE won’t be in any rush shift to a tightening bias.

[IMG]

Elsewhere in forex markets, EURUSD lifted out of the one-week low seen yesterday at 1.1100, but remains mired in narrow ranges in what is now the sixth consecutive session trading on a 1.11 handle. USDJPY has also continued to ply narrow ranges, pivoting through though the pair still managed to scratch out a six-day high at 109.68, which is 2 pips shy of the 17-day high seen last Friday, and 4 pips shy of the seven-month peak seen on December 2. The Australian dollar recovered the losses seen following the wake of the RBA minutes on Tuesday following an above-forecast 39.9k gain in employment, along with an unexpected dip in the jobless rate to 5.2%, from 5.3%. AUDUSD posted a two-day high at 0.6883 moving some 0.42% during the Asian session.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 20th December 2019.

FX Update – Holiday Consolidation– 20th December 2019.


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USDJPY, H4
Narrow ranges have continued to be the norm as markets wind down into the Christmas and New Year holiday period. EURUSD has mustered a less than 10-pip range so far today, holding in the lower 1.1100s in what is now the seventh consecutive trading day the pair has been trading on a 1.11 handle. USDJPY has managed a 15-pip range, with the base marked at 109.25. The pair is consolidating below the seven-month high at 109.72 seen in early December, which is the culmination of a rally from the late-August low at 104.45, a three-year low. Rallying global equity markets and a pricing out of Fed easing expectations have been keeping USDJPY buoyant.

[IMG]

While equity markets have settled today, the USA500 yesterday hit a sixth-straight record high, which is the longest streak since January 2018. All three major US indexes posted new record closing highs yesterday. The Santa Rally has certainly come to life this year, The gains came after US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the US and China would sign their Phase-1 trade deal trade pact in early January, and the US House of Representatives having approved the new North American trade deal.

[IMG]

Elsewhere among currencies, the Australian Dollar managed fresh highs, building on gains seen after yesterday’s above-forecast Australian jobs report. AUDUSD printed a one-week high at 0.6900. The Pound has found a footing after tumbling to fresh lows against the Dollar just after the London book closing yesterday. Cable posted a 16-day low at 1.2989, since recouping back above 1.3000, though set to close out today with its biggest weekly loss in just over two years.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.Date : 19th December 2019.

FX Update & BOC Preview – 19th December 2019.


[IMG]

GBPUSD, H1

The Dollar has traded moderately softer in thinning year-end markets. This has seen the narrow trade-weighted USD Index (DXY) ebb to a low of 97.30, down from the one-week high seen yesterday at 97.47.

[IMG]

A rebound in Cable has weighed on the US currency, with Sterling finding a footing after plunging by nearly 3.5% from last week’s post-UK election rally high at 1.3515. Cable’s low yesterday was 1.3060, and the pair has since recovered to the lower 1.3100s, though still remains over half a big figure below the levels that were prevailing ahead of the election.

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee has amid its final meeting of the year, and will announce at 12:00 GMT in London today. No change to prevailing settings is widely anticipated, though there will be a focus on the two dissenters, Saunders and Haskell, who last month voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate, to see if they will maintain their dovish dissent in light of the strong victory of the Conservative Party at last week’s election. Either way, we expect the BoE to remain on a neutral footing heading into 2020, though, with inflation running at three-year lows at 1.5% y/y, comfortably below target, the BoE won’t be in any rush shift to a tightening bias.

[IMG]

Elsewhere in forex markets, EURUSD lifted out of the one-week low seen yesterday at 1.1100, but remains mired in narrow ranges in what is now the sixth consecutive session trading on a 1.11 handle. USDJPY has also continued to ply narrow ranges, pivoting through though the pair still managed to scratch out a six-day high at 109.68, which is 2 pips shy of the 17-day high seen last Friday, and 4 pips shy of the seven-month peak seen on December 2. The Australian dollar recovered the losses seen following the wake of the RBA minutes on Tuesday following an above-forecast 39.9k gain in employment, along with an unexpected dip in the jobless rate to 5.2%, from 5.3%. AUDUSD posted a two-day high at 0.6883 moving some 0.42% during the Asian session.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 23rd December 2019.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 23rd December 2019.


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Brexit is finally getting underway and global trade talks progressing in this final weeks of 2019. Although, the risk around these events has been trimmed, ample uncertainties remain, leaving scope to further whipsaw markets into the new year.

Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the middle of the week ahead will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess.

Monday – 23 December 2019

  • Leading and Coincident Index (JPY, GMT 05:00) – The indices are expected to come out unchanged at 91.8.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The 0.1% gain that is expected for October GDP will keep Canadian GDP growth weak. Canada’s slowing in GDP growth during Q3 matched BoC expectations, in turn not moving the needle on the outlook for no change in rates for an extended period. GDP slumped to a 1.3% rate in Q3 (q/q, saar), identical to the BoC’s 1.3% estimate from the October MPR.
  • BoJ Meeting Minutes (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The BoJ minutes, similar to the ECB Reports, provide a detailed assessment of the bank’s most recent policy-setting meeting, containing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced the rate decision. They are usually a cause for FX turbulence.

Tuesday – 24 December 2019

  • Christmas Eve – Early close for Major Markets
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable Goods is the leading indicator of production in the US. November Durable goods orders are expected to grow 2.4% with a 6.7% bounce in transportation orders, after a 0.5% headline orders increase in October, and a -1.5% decline in September. Boeing orders for planes bounced to 63 in November from 10 in October, with a boost from the Dubai Air Show.

Wednesday – 25 December 2019

  • Christmas Day – Nearly all major Markets closed

Thursday – 26 December 2019

  • Boxing Day – Nearly all major Markets closed – Except US and Japan
  • Tokyo Core CPI (JPY, 23:30) – Tokyo CPI is usually a good proxy for the Japanese economy’s overall inflation rate. In December, the CPI is expected to have stood at 0.6% y/y, the same as in November, even though projections may be revised when Retail Sales are taken into consideration.
  • Retail Sales (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Following a precipitous 14.4% dive in October due to the Japan’s recent sales tax hike, Retail Sales are expected to climb slightly to 4.6% on a m/m basis in November. The overall rate is expected hold lower at 4.6% y/y decline from 7.1% y/y last month.

Friday – 27 December 2019

  • EU Bulletin (EUR, GMT 09:00) – European Central Bank launches a new publication, the Economic Bulletin, to replace the ECB Monthly Bulletin. It is published two weeks after each Governing Council meeting and it contains the statistical data that policymakers evaluate when setting interest rates. The report also provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 24th December 2019.

XAUUSD – Trend towards the end of the year– 24th December 2019.


[IMG]

XAUUSD, Day – Although gold prices are significantly less volatile, due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US-China since October, however, this morning, gold prices continue rising further to a new high in the month of 1489.57. This followed as USD slight weakness on the disappointing US durable goods released last night. the data were not in line with market expectations while the uncertainty around Brexit and the US-China trade agreement remains.

In the technical perspective, volatility has clearly decreased since the end of October. The gold futures went down to a 3-month low of 1445.55 on 12 November and gradually sideway until the end of November within the lower territory of the downchannel seen since September. In December meanwhile it started moving northwards towards the upper trendline of the channel, which currently retests. Therefore, it is essential to look whether gold prices will be able to break through the upper border of the channel (solid line).
MACD lines meanwhile, have turn in the positive territory since the UK election day last week. A cross of the signal line above neutral zone could confirm the turn of Gold’s outlook into positive in the medium term.

In addition, during the holiday break, it is possible that the price of XAUUSD may be within the sideways framework, as thin trading conditions prevail.

However, during sparse trading, we sometimes see Flash Crash event as participants closing their positions for year’s end, similar to what we saw in the AUDJPY earlier this year. That is assumed to be caused by low trading volumes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and USD/CAD Currency Pair

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1096.

•    EUR/USD is gaining ground on broad-based dollar selling.
•    The pair is closing on a crucial trendline hurdle at 1.1140.
•    With gold rising amid trade optimism, a breakout looks likely.

The easing of trade tensions is good news for Germany. The 18-month US-China trade war had pushed the Eurozone's manufacturing powerhouse and biggest economy to the brink of recession.

As a result, the dollar could continue to lose ground in Friday's European session – more so, as the equity market buoyancy is expected to continue with Amazon, the e-commerce giant, reporting record holiday season.

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1087 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1080. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1107 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1114.

USD CAD

USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3121.

•    USD/CAD on track for a test below 1.31 the figure on firm commodity complex.
•    Phase-one trade deal between the US and China is in the making, supporting commodity currencies.

Funds is under pressure as the commodity complex catches a bid on the so-called 'phase-one' trade deal that is scheduled to be signed in January between the US and China.

 The trade, ownership and technology practices of Chinese companies for the past two decades will not vanish overnight, nor will optimism of US and Canadian executives return with two signatures.  

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3100 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3087. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3144, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3157.

Important Economic Events of the Day

•    JPY: Retail Sales m/m
•    USD: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
•    USD: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count
•    GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair

EUR /USD

EUR traded Higher against USD and closed at 1.1175.

 EUR/USD is attempting a convincing break above 1.12 amid broad-based US dollar weakness.

The currency pair is currently trading at 1.1196, representing a 0.20% gain on the day, having hit a high of 1.1210 in Asia.

Dollar's bearish trend continued in Asia and looks to have legs, as gold, a hard currency, is reporting a 3% gain on a month-to-date basis in dollar terms and is expected to put on a good show next year.

The trend in the gold market is widely used as an indicator to confirm the bullish/bearish price action in the US dollar. 

EUR/USD's bullish case looks stronger with the weekly chart reporting an upside break of the trendline connecting September 2018 and June 2019 highs. 

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1196 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1195. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1200 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1201.

GBP / USD  

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3076

·         GBP/USD remains on the front foot for the fifth consecutive day to the highest since December 19.

·         The Brexit party leader Nigel Farage’s former adviser Trixy Sanderson signaled the EU’s preparations for a              no-deal departure.

·         The market lost interest in the greenback as phase-one calls rise but US-China political divide remains.

 

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.3075 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.3068. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3097, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3104.

 

Important Economic Events of the Day

·         USD: Pending Home Sales m/m

·         USD: Pending Home Sales y/y

·         USD: Goods Trade Balance

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

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Date : 2nd January 2020.

FX Update – 2020 Day 1 -January 2– 2nd January 2020.


[IMG]

EURUSD, H1
The Dollar has found a footing after coming under pressure over the Christmas week and earlier this week. Liquidity has picked up, though some centres in Asia have remained closed, including Tokyo (still the most significant Asian market). The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has lifted above 96.50, up from the six-month low seen earlier in the week at 96.36. EURUSD has concurrently ebbed back under 1.1210 after pegging a four-month high at 1.1239 on Tuesday, but holds S1 and the key 1.1200 handle. The US currency is also showing moderate gains against most Asian currencies, including the Yen. USDJPY has lifted to an intraday high at 108.79, up from the three-week low that was seen earlier in the week at 108.47. USDCHF has been the best performing pair so far today, up some 0.41% and back over the key Daily support and psychological level at 0.9700. AUDUSD has also moved down to a key round number and support level at 0.7000.

[IMG]

Stock markets have opened the new year on a strong footing, aided by the PBoC’s decision, announced yesterday, to trim the reserve requirement ratio for banks and inject some 800 billion Yuan ($114.9 billion) in funds for lending, effective Jan. 6. This followed President Trump saying yesterday that the US-China phase-1 trade deal will be signed on January 15 in Washington. There has been no comment from China. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Stock Index rallied by 0.5%, building on the 5.6% gain that was seen in December. The MSCI’s all-country World Index has remained buoyant after posting a record high on December 27.

Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Pound has started the new year on a soft footing, reversing some of the gains seen over the last week. Brexit is set to happen on January 31, at which point the UK will enter an (at least) 11-month transition phase, during which time the country will remain in the EU’s single market and customs union.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 3rd January 2020.

FX Update – January 3 – Risk Off & Weak EZ Data– 3rd January 2020.

2020-01-03_12-18-06.jpg

EURUSD, H1

The Yen, and to a lesser degree, the Dollar have rallied amid a dash for safe havens following US air strikes that killed the head of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard’s overseas unit. The news also saw gold prices rally by over 1%, and oil prices by over 3%, while stock markets, richly valued after recent gains (Apple shares traded above $300 for the first time yesterday, for instance), declined.

2020-01-03_12-24-49.jpg

Out of the main currencies, AUDJPY has, not surprisingly, been the biggest mover, with the cross showing about a 1% decline soon after the London interbank open. AUDJPY, which has rallied strongly amid the recent risk-on phase in global markets, dove to a two-week low to breach 75.00 and trade at 74.94. The Cross is down by over 2% from the highs seen on Monday. USDJPY plunged under 108.00 to a two-month low, at 107.90, while AUDUSD fell to a two-week low at 0.6935. The New Zealand Dollar, and most developing-world currencies, also declined, while the Canadian Dollar held up relatively well on the back of the rise in oil prices.

2020-01-03_12-56-21-696x595.jpg

Elsewhere, EURUSD and EURJPY fell to respective one- and three-week low, at 1.1152 and 120.35. Cable and GBPJPY hit four- and eleven-day lows respectively. In stock markets, S&P 500 futures are showing a 1% loss after the cash version of the index hit fresh record highs on Wall Street yesterday. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index turned negative after opening strongly, correcting from 18-month highs. In Europe the GER30 trades down some 1.8% at 13,186.

EURUSD came under further pressure, breaching 1.1140,  as German jobless numbers rose 8K, more than anticipated, French inflation jumped to 1.6% y/y in December, from 1.2% y/y in the previous month and Eurozone loan growth decelerated as loans to non-financial corporations declined to 2.6% from 3.1% in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst 
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 06th January 2020.

Events to Look Out For Next Week 06th January 2020.


[IMG]

As we have already entered 2020, with relatively good news in terms of economic growth, the progress on US-China trade, USMCA, Brexit, the fresh Hong Kong protests, ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East and central bank accommodation, will remain inevitably the key events of the year ahead.

Monday – 06 January 2019

  • Markit PMIs (EUR, GBP, USD, GMT 08:55-14:45) – The German but also the overall Eurozone composite PMI reading for December are expected to hold steady. The UK Service PMI meanwhile, is expected to come out at a slightly higher level than last month but to remain below neutral at 49.2. The US Markit services rose to 52.2 in the first release from 51.6 in November and is anticipated to remain unchanged for December.

Tuesday – 07 January 2019

  • Consumer Price Index (CHF, GMT 07:30) – Expectations suggest that Swiss inflation would have flattened at 0% y/y in December, compared to the fall to 0.1% last month. Meanwhile, the SNB downgraded inflation expectations for 2020 and 2021. The 2019 conditional inflation forecast stands at 0.4%, with a 0.1% forecast for 2020 and a 0.5% forecast for 2021.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area preliminary CPI is expected to come out a tad higher at 1.3% y/y in December, while Core is seen unchanged.
  • Trade Balance (USD, GMT 13:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen in November to -$50.8 bln from -$47.2 bln in October. The exports should rise 0.5% to $208.1 bln, while imports should grow by a larger 1.8% to $258.9 bln.
  • Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The index is expected to rise to 54.5 in December from 53.9 in November and a prior 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of 2018. Most of the “soft data” measures have oscillated around lean but positive territory since June, though with headline hits to some surveys from the UAW-GM strike that lingered into November.

Wednesday – 08 January 2019

  • Building Permits (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Building permits are a known leading indicator of the housing and the overall market. Following the decline in dwelling approvals in October, it will be interesting to observe whether permits will increase or pullback once again. The consensus for November is at 4.0% m/m, compared to the drift at -8.1% last month.
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 150k for December following the lean 67k November ADP rise.

Thursday – 09 January 2019

  • Australia’s Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The trade balance in November could spike to 6,100M from 4,502M last month.
  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) –One of the restrains for PBOC to ease the monetary policy last year was the rising pork prices, a key component that stoked inflation. Declines in pork prices in December are likely to slow the CPI growth in this period.
  • Unemployment Rate (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to stand at 7.5%, the same as in October.
  • Housing Starts (CAD, GMT 13:15) – Canadian housing starts are expected to remain positive at 205k, slightly stronger than the 201.3k November figure.

Friday – 10 January 2019

  • Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 180k December Non-Farm payroll rise has been forecasted, following a 266k increase in November. The jobless rate should hold steady, average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.1% for a second month in a row. The jobs data face upside risk from firm consumer confidence and a December up-tilt in producer sentiment, but downside risk from the rise in claims through the period of holiday volatility and a lean ADP path.
  • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – The plunge in November employment challenges the BoC’s economic resiliency argument. Employment fell -71.2k after a -1.8k dip in October, contrasting with expectations for a modest recovery, while the unemployment rate jumped to 5.9%. However, the December reading is anticipated to jump back to 20K while the unemployment rate is expected to fall at 5.8% m/m from 5.9% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP / USD Currency Pair

 EUR /USD

  • EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1193

The market is well placed to retest resistance at 1.1197- 1.1240 – namely the 55-week ma, the 2019-2020 down channel and the recent high. This guards the 200-week ma at 1.1360 which continues to represent a critical breakpoint medium term.”

 “Dips lower are well supported by the 55 and 20-day ma at 1.1095/1.1065 and the 3-month uptrend at 1.1045.”

 “Failure at the uptrend would target the 1.0981 29th November low.”

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1167 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1156 The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1205 and a rise through could take it to the next the resistance level of 1.1216. 

 GBP / USD  

 · GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3167

 “We look for dips lower to remain well supported by the 55-day ma at 1.2987. The low on the 23rd December was 1.2908 and while above here we will assume an upside bias to retest the December high at 1.3515.”

 “The December high at 1.3515 guards the September 2017 high and 38.2% retracement (of the move down from 2014) at 1.3658/68. This guards the more important 1.3918 2007 -2020 downtrend.”

 According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2841 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2604. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3461, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3607.

 Important Economic Events of the Day

  •       EUR Retail Sales m/m.
  •       EUR Retail Sales y/y.   
  •       GBP 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction.
  •       USD Trade Balance.

More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

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Date : 7th January 2020.

AUD Pressured as tensions persist– 7th January 2020.


[IMG]

AUDUSD, H1
The Australian Dollar has remained under pressure, despite global stock markets having taken a turn higher as markets reappraise the US versus Iran standoff. A Caixin report saying that China will not increase its annual low-tariff import quotas for US agricultural produce raised doubts with regard to the yet-to-be-signed “phase-1” trade deal. There was also a research note from Citi analysts highlighting that upside Chinese data surprises have been diminishing since mid December. This appeared to weigh on the Aussie, which is widely seen as a liquid China proxy currency.

[IMG]

AUDUSD dropped just over 0.5% in making a two-week low at 0.6898, while AUDJPY fell by a similar magnitude in making a 26-day low. The pairing and cross are showing respective losses of 1.9% and 1.6% from their closing levels on December 31. Australian OIS is pricing in a 54% probability for the RBA to cut interest rates by 25 bps at its early February policy meeting, up from the around 38% odds that were being factored in late December. Of all the Aussie crosses it is the perky Pound that is the best performer in the London session, up some 0.62% and also printing five-day highs against the Dollar, Euro and Yen today.

[IMG]

Elsewhere, the Yen weakened against the Dollar and some other currencies, outside the case for AUDJPY, as some of its safe haven premium unwound, though firmed back some in the latest phase. USDJPY lifted to a 108.50 rebound high, up from yesterday’s 107.77 low. The Dollar traded mostly firmer, retracing losses seen yesterday by varying degrees. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) rebounded about half of the drop it saw yesterday in lifting back above 96.75. This saw EURUSD ebb back under the 1.1200 level to trade down to 1.1185.

[IMG]


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 8th January 2020.

FX Update – The Usual Suspects & USDCAD– 8th January 2020.

2020-01-08_11-35-22-696x585.jpg

USDCAD, H1

The Yen surged and then sharply unwound gains in volatile trading during trading in Tokyo. The rally in the Japanese currency was part of a broader dash for safe haven assets and currencies following news that Iran had fired missiles at two US bases in Iraq. The US reported no casualties, and President Trump’s initial tweet responses were notable for the lack of bellicosity, saying that “All is well!” and “So far, so good.” Official Iranian statements were also measured, though warned of  “a painful response” to any further US action, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that “Operation Martyr Soleimani” had only just begun. The more hawkish members of Trump’s Republican party also signalled that Tehran had gravely miscalculated US resolve. Trump said he would make a statement later today, which will be a major focus for markets. More volatility in global markets seems assured given the uncertainty about the situation, although both sides are showing a clear desire to avoid a full-blown war.

2020-01-08_11-55-05-696x648.jpg

The burst of Yen buying drove USDJPY to a three-month low at 107.65 before the pair rebounded to near net unchanged levels in the mid 108.00s. The rebound mirrored a recovery in stock markets in Asia, though most of the indices across the region, while off their lows, have remained firmly in the red. Oil and gold prices also spiked to fresh trend highs before retreating some. EURUSD remained in a narrow range around 1.1150. Sterling ticked moderately higher, but remained within its respective Tuesday ranges against the Dollar and Euro. AUDUSD printed a fresh three-week low at 0.6850 before rebounding back above 0.6880.

2020-01-08_11-48-52-696x397.jpg

USDCAD dropped back below 1.3000 concomitantly with oil prices rising to fresh trend highs following the overnight news. The pairing remained above the three-month low seen on December 31 at 1.2951. The surge in oil prices over the last several months, which has been extended by the flare-up in US-Iran tensions, has been underpinning the Canadian Dollar. USOil is up by some 24% from the lows seen last September. Gains of that magnitude, if sustained, are a big boon to Canada’s terms of trade, hence the correlation between oil prices and the Canadian currency. The Fed’s removing of a forecast for a 25 bps hike in 2020 at its FOMC policy meeting in December has also been weighing on USDCAD, with markets presently discounting about 60% odds for the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps or more by the end of 2020. The pairing looks likely to continue to trade with an overall downside bias. A breach of the 1.2950 support area will bring 1.2900 and even the September 2018 low of 1.2780 into play. A sustained break and breach of 1.3000-50 is required for the pair to move back to the upside. The 20-day moving average and S3 sit at 1.3100.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst 
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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B]Date : 10th January 2020.

FX Update – JPY Weak & NFP Preview10th January 2020.[/B]

[IMG]

USDJPY, H1
The Yen posted fresh lows as global stock markets hit new record highs, (APPLE, the world’s largest company, moved up over 2% to $308 following good iPhone sales in China) while the likes of the Australian Dollar and many developing-nation currencies rallied. USDJPY, now in its fifth consecutive up day, printed a fresh two-week high at 107.60, which is just 12 pips shy of the seven-month high that was seen in early December. A close over 109.50 today would suggest more upside for the pair next week. AUDJPY lifted to a five-day high and was the best performing pair, moving 0.33% and holding over 75.25, having topped at 75.41 and rolled over from its overbought condition at the London open. EURJPY also rose to an eight-day high.

[IMG]

In stock markets, the MSCI All-Country World Index hit a new record high today, which followed the record highs that the three main US indices and the pan-Europe Stoxx 600 Equity Index saw yesterday. Oil prices remained heavy, some 11% down on the high seen just a couple of days ago, with the US and Iran having stepped back from the cliff edge. News that iPhone sales in China rose 18% y/y in December gave tech stocks a boost, while also boding well for US-Sino relations, with China’s Vice Premier Liu, head of Beijing’s trade negotiation team, travelling to Washington next week to sign the phase-1 trade deal with the US.

[IMG]

Elsewhere in the forex markets, the Dollar has traded mixed, leaving the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) net unchanged. EURUSD remained settled in a narrow range near 1.1100. The Dollar lost ground to the Australian currency, with AUDUSD lifting to a two-day high at 0.6882 in what is the pair’s first up day of the year so far. Cable remained below the 1.3100 level, while USDCAD settled just above 1.3050, below the two-week high seen yesterday at 1.3104.

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 13th January 2020.
 
FX Update January 13 – Sterling Stressed 13th January 2020.
 
2020-01-13_11-13-35.jpg
 
GBPUSD, H1
 
Sterling has taken a turn lower in early week trading, with markets reacting to both dovish BoE-speak and to a report from the UK’s Institute for Government finding that it will be impossible to deliver the computer systems for the special arrangements for Northern Ireland’s border by the end of the year. Prime Minister Johnson has pledged, and worked into the Withdrawal Agreement legislation, to leave the post-Brexit transition period by the end of the year, hence the negative reaction by markets. Ireland’s deputy Prime Minister Coveney also said that forming a new trade deal between the EU and UK is “probably going to take longer than a year.” Member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee Vlieghe, meanwhile, said in the FT over the weekend that he is ready to cut rates if data doesn’t improve, similar to the view expressed by governor Carney last week. Cable has dropped nearly 0.5% in printing a 17-day low at 1.29845, while EURGBP has risen by a similar magnitude in making a 17-day peak at 0.8560. However, the biggest mover has been GBPAUD down some 0.55% and trades blow 1.8800 once again.
 

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Elsewhere, EURUSD has lifted above its Friday high in making 1.1132 in a move driven by moderate Euro outperformance. EURJPY has posted a two-week high at 122.05, while EURCHF and other Euro crosses have also seen gains. The Yen remained on a generally weak footing as Asia’s MSCI Asia-Pacific index hit a new 19-month high with investors anticipating Wednesday’s signing of the US-China phase-1 trade deal. USDJPY was buoyant, though remained below Friday’s 18-day high at 109.68, and could not close the weak over 109.50, strong resistance sits at 109.70. AUDJPY posted a fresh 10-day peak. AUDUSD posted a six-day peak. Liquidity was below par in Asia with Japanese markets closed for a public holiday. The US-China trade deal will be a major focus this week as the details haven’t been made public, a reported 86-page document is to be signed and questions remain over Chinese compliance and their ability to actually fulfill their obligations and from the US side, their willingness to reimpose tariffs in an election year.
 
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
 
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
 
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
 
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst 
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Date : 14th January 2020.

Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies

bitcoin-2643159__340.jpg

Optimism pressures Safe Havens while Crypto rallies – A fresh injection of risk-on trading saw the Yen decline further and stocks rally overnight after trade data out of China showed a drop in exports to the US last year.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.


HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.

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Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/USD Currency Pair

GBP USD

GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.3017.

GBP/USD looks to extend the bounce towards 1.3050 ahead of the UK CPI report, as broad-based US dollar weakness and bullish technical set up underpin the sentiment around the spot.

 

             Flat - closed up 0.2%, as expectations of a Jan BoE cut cooled

             Inflation data on today and retail sales Friday will be key for sterling

             Despite bounce daily charts are negative, though at low end of recent ranges

             Momentum studies, 5, 10 & 21 DMAs head lower and 21 day Bolli bands slip

             1.2900, December low then 1.2887 lower 21 day Bolli band are major support

 

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.2973 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.2954. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.3033, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.3052.

 

EUR USD

EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1127.

 

             EUR/USD barely moved in Asia trading in a 1.1126/31 range

             Most of the action in regionals as USD moved up on Mnuchin comments\

             Resistance at 10-day MA at 1.1140 with option selling ahead of 1.1150

             Large option maturities 1.1100/50 defining recent range

             Break above 1.1150 targets 61.8 fibo of 1.1240/1.1085 at 1.1181

             EZ IP later today, but US-China trade deal likely to be main event

According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1111 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1101. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1141 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1151.

  • Economic Events of the Day
  1.    USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
  2.   USD EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change
  3.   USD FOMC Member Harker Speech

For More information about the release time of news and its impact visit Economic Calendar Page!

 

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