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USD/CAD settles at 1.3350, a one-month high, as the Oil price and US Dollar weaken


The USD/CAD currency pair has stabilized around the 1.3350 mark, a significant one-month high, in a volatile market landscape where key US economic data is keenly anticipated. This relative steadiness is due to a mix of contributing factors, including the decline in Oil prices and a lukewarm performance by the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The recent fluctuations in WTI crude oil prices have been striking. The commodity rose to its highest point since April 17, before abruptly reversing course and suffering its largest losses in six weeks. This sudden swing was instigated by an increase in risk aversion and rising speculation that Oil producers, especially those in OPEC+, are resistant to further production cuts. As per Reuters’ sources, the Oil cartel is likely to maintain its current output policies in its upcoming meeting on August 4. Consequently, WTI crude oil prices are currently on a two-day downward trend, trading approximately at $79.20 per barrel, indicating a 0.40% intraday drop.

Conversely, the US Dollar Index (DXY) found some resilience amidst the risk-averse market atmosphere. Boosted by robust US Treasury bond yields, the DXY hit a three-week peak. Moreover, encouraging US ADP Employment Change figures for July added to the positive outlook for the US Dollar. However, a persistent resistance line that’s held for nine weeks is limiting the DXY’s gains, keeping the gauge steady against six major currencies at 102.60.


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Euro Hovers Near 1.0950 Ahead of US NFP Data Release

As the week draws to a close, the Euro (EUR) continues to trade in an uncertain manner against the US Dollar (USD), keeping the EUR/USD pair confined within a tight trading bracket around the 1.0950 mark. The uncertainty is mirrored in the USD Index (DXY), which has maintained steady trade within the mid-102.00s range. This lack of clear direction can be attributed to the absence of a definitive trend in US yields, despite their recent surge to nine-month highs across multiple segments of the yield curve.

Investors’ attention is now drawn towards the forthcoming release of the Nonfarm Payrolls report for July. The report is widely anticipated to reflect an increase of approximately 200K jobs. This heightened interest is largely driven by the Federal Reserve’s recent emphasis on the role of economic data in shaping its monetary policy decisions, a point that was underscored during its event held on July 26.

Currently, there is rampant speculation that the rate hike executed by the Fed in July might be the last one we will see in the near-term future. This conjecture has been fuelled by the Federal Reserve’s insistence on basing its decisions on economic data points, suggesting that unless the data indicates a need for further hikes, the current rates could hold steady for some time.

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EUR/USD Stays Defensive Below 1.1000, Vulnerable Amid Modest USD Strength


At the start of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair encountered notable selling pressure, leading to a retracement from its recent peak near the 1.1040 level. During the Asian session, spot prices slipped below the psychologically significant 1.1000 mark, temporarily disrupting the two-day recovery that had lifted the pair from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0910. The recent rebound in EUR/USD had come after it touched a nearly one-month low last Thursday, signaling underlying weakness in the currency pair.

Driving the market sentiment, the US Dollar (USD) gained traction as investors embraced the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite a somewhat underwhelming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday, which indicated the addition of 187,000 jobs in July with downward revisions for May and June figures, the USD found support due to robust wage growth and a lower unemployment rate, both of which pointed to a tightening labor market. These factors solidified the possibility of the Fed implementing a 25 basis points rate hike in either September or November, bolstering the demand for the greenback.

On the flip side, the euro faced challenges as expectations grew that the European Central Bank (ECB) would halt its streak of nine consecutive interest rate hikes during its September meeting. Concerns escalated as indications arose that inflation in the Euro Zone had likely reached its peak. Notably, Fitch Ratings’ statement on the matter and the ECB’s economic bulletin, both hinting at a potential slowdown in underlying inflation, further weighed on the sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD pair.

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EUR/JPY Bulls Target 157.70 Key Resistance Despite Soft Japan Wages and Lackluster German Inflation

During today’s European session, the EUR/JPY pair is showing a bullish trend, targeting the key resistance level of 157.70. This upward movement is significant as it challenges a long-standing falling resistance line. Interestingly, this bullish drive is happening despite weak economic indicators from both Japan and Germany.

The Euro’s strength in the face of lackluster German inflation data and sluggish Treasury bond yields is noteworthy. Despite the expected inflation figures closely matching the forecasts, with a YoY rate of 6.5% for the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and 6.2% for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the EUR/JPY pair continues to rise. This suggests a prevailing bearish sentiment towards the European Central Bank (ECB).

However, the driving force behind the pair’s ascent could be linked to the evolving monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), supported by recent wage statistics from Tokyo. While Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings for June exceeded expectations, real wages continued to decline for the 15th consecutive month, dropping by 1.6% YoY. This decline aligns with the dovish stance surrounding the BoJ.

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Asian Shares Fall on Bank Concerns and Chinese Economic Worries


Asian markets experienced declines on Wednesday due to concerns about the U.S. banking system’s performance, which triggered a slide on Wall Street. Simultaneously, worries about Chinese economic growth added to the downward trend in the region’s stock markets.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.2% to 32,323.31 during morning trading, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 remained almost unchanged, inching up by less than 0.1% to 7,316.60. South Korea’s Kospi, however, recorded a nearly 1.0% increase to reach 2,598.96. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined by 0.4% to 19,105.19, and the Shanghai Composite also fell by 0.4% to 3,247.64.

Clifford Bennett, the chief economist at ACY Securities, highlighted concerns over China’s export data, which experienced the sharpest decline in three years. He emphasized that this decline reflects not only China’s situation but also the global economy’s challenges.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.4% to 4,499.38, marking the fifth loss in the last six days, following strong performance in the initial seven months of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 0.4% to 35,314.49, recovering slightly from an earlier loss of 465 points. The Nasdaq composite witnessed an 0.8% decrease to 13,884.32.


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GBP/USD on Edge Before US Inflation Data and UK-China Sanctions

GBP/USD remains cautious around 1.2715-20 ahead of Thursday’s London session, as investors tread carefully before the release of US inflation figures for July. Additionally, the Pound faces resistance due to reports of the UK considering restrictions on British investment in Chinese tech firms. Meanwhile, concerns about a potential British recession and looming higher interest rates in London are also testing the Cable pair’s stability.

A recent report by the Financial Times (FT) suggests that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is contemplating measures to limit outbound investment in the Chinese tech sector, including areas like artificial intelligence, chips, and quantum computing. This news gains traction as Sunak seeks support within the political sphere following disappointing by-election results.

Furthermore, the UK’s prominent think tank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), projects that British economic output won’t recover to pre-pandemic levels until Q3 2024. The NIESR also suggests a 60% chance of the government facing a recession, while anticipating that UK inflation will remain above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target for the next four years. This could drive the Bank of England towards more hawkish actions to defend the British Pound.

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EUR/USD Holds Firm above 1.0980, Markets Cautious Ahead of US PPI Data


During the early European session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair maintains its position above the 1.0980 level. Following a retreat from its weekly high of 1.1065 following US inflation data, the major pair has remained in positive territory for a third consecutive day. However, market participants are treading cautiously, opting to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) release later in the American session.

In its monthly Economic Bulletin issued on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) underscored that inflation in the Eurozone is still projected to remain elevated for an extended period, while the prospects for economic growth and inflation continue to be uncertain. According to a Reuters poll, economists do not anticipate reaching the target inflation rate of 2.0% until at least 2025. Moreover, over 90% of surveyed economists expect no rate cuts before the second quarter of 2024.

Shifting focus to the US Dollar, recent data indicated that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) from 3% in June. Although slightly below the market consensus of 3.3%, this increase in inflation influenced the Euro’s performance. Furthermore, the Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, declined from 4.8% to 4.7%. Additionally, US Initial Jobless Claims surpassed expectations, rising to 248,000 compared to the expected 230,000. As a result, the US Dollar reversed its trajectory, exerting downward pressure on the Euro on Thursday.


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SD/JPY remains below 145.00 as BoJ provides limitless fixed-rate JGBs

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading below the significant level of 145.00, retreating from its year-to-date high during the Asian trading session. At present, the major pair hovers around 144.90, experiencing a marginal decline of 0.05% throughout the day.

On Friday, an important development came from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which revealed a substantial increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand on a year-on-year (YoY) basis. In July, the PPI rose by 0.8%, surpassing June’s 0.1% and exceeding market expectations of 0.7%. Additionally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index for July dipped slightly from 71.6 to 71.2, surpassing the anticipated figure of 71. Moreover, the UoM’s 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations for August declined to 2.9% compared to the previous estimate of 3.0%. This data resulted in a mild increase in buying activity for the USD/JPY pair, driven by heightened expectations of a potential 25 basis points tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) by the end of the year. Such expectations could strengthen the US Dollar, providing support for the USD/JPY pair.

In contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made a notable move by offering limitless Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with residual maturities of 5 to 10 years at a fixed rate. This announcement came during the early Asian session on Monday, causing the USD/JPY pair to briefly touch an intraday low near 144.65. Consequently, the pair recorded its first loss in six consecutive days after hitting a fresh yearly high earlier in the same day.

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China’s Surprise Rate Cut Sparks Drop in Key Bond Yield and Yuan


The recent surprise rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has sent shockwaves through the Chinese market. The aim was to stimulate economic growth, but it has led to unintended consequences. The benchmark government bond yield has plummeted to a three-year low, and the yuan has weakened. This decline in bond yields and the currency indicates growing concerns about Chinese assets and the urgent need for further stimulus measures to revive growth.

The PBOC’s decision to lower one-year loan rates by 15 basis points to 2.5% caught many off guard. This announcement came just moments before the release of disappointing economic data, including weaker-than-expected retail sales and fixed-asset investment figures. These factors have exacerbated market sentiment and emphasized the necessity for additional fiscal and monetary measures to support the economy.

Experts suggest that the impact of the rate cut on growth hinges on whether the positive effects of lower rates outweigh the challenges posed by wider rate spreads between China and the US. To regain market confidence, Beijing must demonstrate a commitment to increased spending and further monetary easing, such as reducing banks’ required reserve ratio.

The yield on China’s 10-year bonds has dropped five basis points to 2.57%, reaching levels not seen since the height of the pandemic in April 2020. Concurrently, the yuan has weakened both onshore and offshore, hitting its lowest level since November. The continuous decline in Chinese stocks adds to the overall negative sentiment. 


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After UK CPI data release, GBP/JPY surged past 185.00

After the release of UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the GBP/JPY currency pair experienced a surge, surpassing the 185.00 mark. This positive momentum in the cross is due to the encouraging inflation figures from the UK. However, market participants are also closely monitoring the possibility of foreign exchange (FX) intervention by the Bank of Japan.

According to the latest data from the UK’s National Statistics, the CPI for June showed a month-on-month decrease of -0.4%, slightly better than the market consensus of -0.5%. On a yearly basis, British CPI inflation rose to 6.8% in June, in line with expectations. The core CPI, which excludes volatile oil and food prices, increased by 6.9% in July, surpassing the estimated 6.8%. Additionally, the UK Retail Price Index (RPI) for July reported a month-on-month decline of -0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%.

Meanwhile, Japan’s economic growth data for the second quarter revealed a QoQ increase of 1.5%, higher than the expected 0.8% and the previous 0.7%. On an annual basis, Japan’s GDP rose to 6.0%, exceeding the estimated 3.1% and the previous 2.7%. The Yen’s weakness can be attributed to the monetary policy differential between the US and Japan, with the potential for additional rate hikes by the Bank of England acting as a boost for the Pound Sterling and potentially benefiting the GBP/JPY cross.

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Stocks Dip on Fed Minutes Hinting at Potential Rate Hikes


On Wednesday, the stock market witnessed a noticeable decline in response to the Federal Reserve’s indication of potential rate hikes, prompting a reevaluation of investment strategies among traders and investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) recorded a decrease of approximately 0.5%, equivalent to a drop of around 180 points. Similarly, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) experienced a decline of nearly 0.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC), dominated by technology-focused companies, suffered its second consecutive day of losses with a drop exceeding 1%.

Amidst this market activity, a prominent occurrence in the retail sector was the stark projection provided by Target (TGT), which adjusted its full-year profit forecast downward. The rationale behind this adjustment was attributed to the combination of escalating interest rates and the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the resumption of student loan repayments. Despite this unfavorable news, Target’s stock exhibited a surprising increase of over 3%, a surge attributed to the company’s robust quarterly profit performance that overshadowed the downward outlook.

The spotlight then turned to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting. The minutes divulged that a majority of officials maintained their stance that inflation presented a potential risk, while a select few expressed hesitance toward further rate increases in the month of July. Notably, the central bank had already executed an interest rate hike, elevating rates to their highest point since 2001 during that specific meeting. Investors eagerly sifted through the minutes in search of clues regarding the Fed’s forthcoming strategies. Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch tool demonstrated that almost 90% of traders were anticipating a status quo in terms of rates, a figure that saw a marginal decrease from before the minutes were released.


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USD/CHF Struggles Below 0.8800 Amid Slow Markets

The USD/CHF pair is currently encountering challenges as it strives to surpass the 0.8800 level, a scenario highlighted by the most recent news and market analysis. The lack of dynamic movement in this pairing can be attributed to a confluence of factors that are significantly influencing the overall sentiment within the market.

One of the pivotal factors contributing to traders’ apprehension is the impending release of mid-tier Swiss data. This impending data release has introduced an element of uncertainty into the market, prompting caution among traders. Adding to this air of uncertainty is the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, a high-profile event where influential central bankers are slated to deliver speeches in the upcoming week. This event is further deepening the sense of vigilance among traders, as they closely monitor these key figures’ insights.

The broader risk appetite prevailing in the market is also contributing to the prevailing hesitancy among momentum traders. A juxtaposition is seen in the US 10-year Treasury bond yields, which initially experienced a drop but subsequently exhibited a rebound and found stability. Correspondingly, the S&P 500 Futures have showcased a resurgence and stabilization. Furthermore, a corrective bounce has been evident in the MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan.

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EUR/USD Bullish Above 1.0900 Amid Slight USD Weakness


The EUR/USD pair continues to gain strength, surpassing the 1.0900 mark in the Asian session for the second consecutive day. This upward momentum comes after the pair rebounded from its recent low of 1.0845, indicating a positive trend.

One of the factors supporting this optimistic outlook is the statement from Philip Lane, the Chief Economist of the European Central Bank (ECB). Lane predicts steady growth for the Euro Zone economy without a severe recession. This, coupled with the narrowing of the German yield curve, suggests that the ECB may consider tightening its policies, which in turn bolsters the Euro. Furthermore, the modest weakness of the US Dollar adds further support to the EUR/USD pair.

Traders are keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s actions, anticipating that they will halt their rate-hiking cycle in September, leading to a decline in the USD Index. However, the US economy has shown resilience, leaving room for a potential rate hike later in the year.

The expectation of higher interest rates is keeping US Treasury bond yields relatively high. Additionally, investors are exercising caution in light of key speeches by the Federal Reserve Chair and the ECB President at the Jackson Hole Symposium. This caution may limit aggressive bets on the EUR/USD pair.


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EUR/GBP looks to consolidate around 0.8520 ahead of PMIs from Eurozone and UK

EUR/GBP finds itself in a crucial juncture, with all eyes on its consolidation around the 0.8520 mark, a pivotal level that could set the tone for its immediate trajectory. As the Asian session unfolded on a Wednesday that carried high stakes, the currency pair grappled with the task of recouping losses incurred during the prior trading day, tentatively floating near the 0.8520 level. This struggle finds its roots in the prevailing apprehension surrounding the potential escalation of interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE).

Market participants have assumed the role of vigilant observers, meticulously following the developments on the UK economic calendar. The spotlight is particularly on the imminent release of the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMIs) for August. The outcome of this data release holds the promise of illuminating the paths that the respective economies of the Eurozone and the UK are embarking upon. The ripples of this revelation have the potential to resonate significantly in the trading decisions involving the intricate dance of EUR/GBP.

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EUR/USD stands firm above 1.0850 despite weak Eurozone PMI data; attention shifts to Jackson Hole

Despite receiving unfavorable news about the state of the Eurozone’s economy, the EUR/USD exchange rate remains relatively stable, holding above the key level of 1.0850. As the Asian trading session progresses on Thursday, the pair is observed to be trading around 1.0870, marking a second consecutive day of gains. This development is particularly intriguing due to the recent release of weaker-than-anticipated Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from both the Eurozone and Germany on the preceding Wednesday. This unexpected data has sparked concerns among investors, who are diligently attempting to decipher the potential implications for inflationary trends.

The preliminary HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone in August has displayed a decline to 47, a figure notably below the earlier forecast of 48.5 and also falling short of the 48.6 recorded in the previous month. Simultaneously, Germany’s Composite PMI has registered a drop to 44.7. This outcome is disheartening for market experts, who had projected a more favorable reading around 48.3. A comparison to July’s figure of 48.5 further highlights the subdued nature of the reported data.

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Dow Futures Up, Market Rally Continues; Jobs Data in Focus

The positive momentum in Dow Jones futures ahead of Tuesday’s opening was mirrored by upward movement in S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures during overnight trading, indicating a buoyant start to the trading session.

This week, the ongoing vigor of the market rally remains a focal point as investors turn their attention towards the eagerly awaited Friday jobs report, a pivotal event in the closing week of August. The implications of this report are far-reaching, potentially influencing expectations around interest rate shifts. A strong report wouldn’t necessarily translate to an imminent rate hike, while a less robust report, with payroll gains hovering around 100,000, could potentially take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. Simultaneously, market watchers are gearing up for the release of the Commerce Department’s data on personal income and spending for July, an influential indicator of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Thursday.

In terms of earnings, Salesforce.com (CRM), a key player within the Dow Jones, is poised to disclose its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Notably, this leaves just Nike (NKE) and Walgreens (WBA) as the remaining components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average yet to announce their earnings reports.

In addition, several software companies are slated to release their earnings, including MongoDB (MDB), Nutanix (NTNX), Samsara (IOT), as well as security software entities such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA).

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USD/CHF Trims Five-Week Loss, Shifts to Mid-Tier Swiss/US Data

In the early hours of Wednesday’s European session, the USD/CHF currency pair continued to maintain its position, showing resilience after experiencing its most significant daily loss in the past five weeks, with levels hovering around 0.8790. This retracement in value is occurring in a backdrop where the US Dollar is preparing for pivotal data releases. Concurrently, there has been a perceptible shift in market sentiment away from the previous dovish stance held towards the Federal Reserve (Fed). This shift has created an environment that has enabled the Swiss Franc (CHF) to assert itself, resulting in the pairing securing its first daily gains in a span of three sessions.

The enduring influence of the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains palpable, maintaining a somewhat elevated position due to concerns stemming from recent data releases related to US consumer confidence, employment metrics, and the housing sector. These concerns primarily revolve around the looming possibility of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. This change in stance becomes particularly evident as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscores the importance of anchoring future decisions on data dependencies, thereby underpinning the current hawkish posture. This pronounced sentiment shift has in turn reverberated across the Greenback and the broader landscape of US Treasury bond yields.

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GBP/USD Holds Near 1-Week High, USD Support, BoE and Fed Awaited

The GBP/USD pair is currently maintaining a stable position, having achieved progress over the course of the past three days. During the Asian session on Thursday, the pair exhibited a trading pattern characterized by subtle fluctuations, with its value hovering around 1.2720. This particular price point has experienced minimal changes throughout the day, residing just slightly below the peak reached in the preceding day – a notable high sustained for a duration of one week.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is drawing support from a significant technical indicator known as the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This support has effectively halted the USD’s recent decline from its elevated position reached back in June. This occurrence acts as a resistance factor for the GBP/USD pair, influencing its movement. In parallel, the anticipation of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) continues to bolster the British Pound. This, in turn, shapes a prudent outlook for traders with a bearish stance on the pair.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, has articulated the possibility of prolonged maintenance of restrictive policy rates due to the enduring effects of persistent price surges. On the other side of the equation, the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) enacting a temporary halt in its series of rate hikes is exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar. This counteracting force serves to mitigate the potential downward shifts in the GBP/USD pair.

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USD/CAD Hovers at 1.3510 Despite Oil Strength, Awaits US NFP and Canada GDP Data

The USD/CAD pair remains in a defensive stance around 1.3510, rebounding from its two-week low as it enters the European session on Friday. This resilience comes even as the pair fails to respond positively to the surging prices of Canada’s primary export, WTI crude oil, with traders keeping a close watch on upcoming US employment data and Canadian GDP figures.

Despite a broader US Dollar recovery and anticipation of crucial economic data, the USD/CAD bears persisted in the previous session. The rise in WTI crude oil prices to a multi-day high added further downward pressure to the pair. Additionally, a significant revision in Canadian Current Account data for Q1 2023 contributed to the downward momentum.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has seen a four-day consecutive increase, reaching $83.40 and hitting a three-week high. This rally is driven by a series of measures implemented by China to safeguard its economy from a return to pandemic-induced conditions. Notably, the People’s Bank of China reduced the foreign reserve ratio by 2.0%, and numerous Chinese banks lowered Yuan deposit rates. Adverse weather conditions, including Hurricane Idalia in the US and concerns about a typhoon in China, along with a substantial inventory drawdown in the US, have also fueled the rise in oil prices.

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USD/JPY Surges Past 146.00, Awaits Japan GDP and US ISM Services PMI

USD/JPY is holding steady around 146.10-15 as we enter Monday’s European session, following a slow start to the week with Japan’s GDP numbers and the US ISM Services PMI in focus. The lack of action in the Yen pair can be attributed to the US Labor Day holiday, as well as mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Earlier today, Japan’s Monetary Base data for August showed a 1.2% year-on-year growth in liquidity, compared to -1.3% in the previous period. Despite cautious optimism in the market and inactive bond markets due to the US holiday, the market still expects the BoJ to support the Japanese Yen (JPY).

In other news, market sentiment remains positive as China implements stimulus measures and hopes rise for no more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

China’s government recently established a special cell to promote the private economy and remove barriers for the services industry, boosting sentiment on Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also made a significant cut to its foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (FX RRR), with several China banks reducing interest rates on Yuan deposits. Furthermore, there are reports that China will take more action to revive the country’s property sector.

On the flip side, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) adopting a hawkish stance in the future has decreased, particularly following the mixed US jobs report for August. This positive market sentiment weighs on the USD/JPY price.

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