xtreamforex26 Posted March 7, 2023 Report Share Posted March 7, 2023 AUD/USD Defends January Low Ahead of RBA Rate Decision AUD/USD trades in a narrow range after struggling to push back above the 200-Day SMA, and the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision may keep the exchange rate afloat as the central bank is expected to implement higher interest rates. AUD/USD appears to be defending the January low as it holds within last week’s range, and the exchange rate may stage further attempts to trade back above the long-term moving average as the RBA continues to carry out its hiking-cycle. The RBA is anticipated to raise the official cash rate by another 25bp in March as the central bank insists that further increases in interest rates are likely to be needed over the months ahead, and the central bank may pursue a more restrictive policy as the recent inflation data had suggested more breadth and persistence in inflation than had been expected. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 8, 2023 Report Share Posted March 8, 2023 GBP/USD Fed Chair Jerome Powell Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the pace of quarter-point interest-rate increases is not set in stone, and a faster tightening of rates may be warranted if economic data indicates it is necessary. Powell’s follow-up testimony tomorrow will be his last scheduled public remarks on interest-rate policy before the Fed’s next meeting, March 21-22. Strong economic data have shifted investors rate expectations, with the rate now expected to rise to around 5.5% by midyear and remain there through the end of 2023. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged during his Capitol Hill hearings that the recent 25bps pace of interest rate increases is not set in stone. Powell expressed his belief that strong and sustained economic activity this year could prompt the central bank officials to accelerate interest rate increases. He further stated that this could lead to more rate increases than initially expected to combat high inflation. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 9, 2023 Report Share Posted March 9, 2023 EUR/USD Takes Out February Low Ahead of US Jobs Report EUR/USD takes out the February low following the failed attempts to trade back above the 50-day SMA, and developments coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate under pressure as the NFP report is anticipated to show another rise in employment. EUR/USD fails to defend the opening range for March as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns of a higher trajectory for US interest rates, and the exchange rate may struggle to hold above the January low amid growing speculation for a 50bp Fed rate hike. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, market participants are pricing a greater than 70% probability for the Fed funds rate to increase to a fresh threshold of 5.00% to 5.25% on March 22, and it remains to be seen if Chairman Powell and Co. will project a steeper path for US interest rates as the central bank is scheduled to update the Summary of Economic Projections. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 10, 2023 Report Share Posted March 10, 2023 USD/JPY Outlook Mired by Failure to Test December High USD/JPY appears to be reversing ahead of the December 2022 high 138.18 as it fails to hold above 200-day SMA, but the Bank Of Japan interest rate decision may curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as the central bank is expected to retain its easing cycle. USD/JPY snaps the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week to keep the Relative Strength Index below overbought territory, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from earlier this month as the oscillator shows the bullish momentum abating. However, the BOJ is expected to retain the Quantitative and Qualitative Easing program with Yield-Curve Control at Governor Haruhiko Kurdo’s last meeting, and more of the same from the central bank may produce headwinds for the Japanese Yen as the board retains a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 13, 2023 Report Share Posted March 13, 2023 Preview of NZ Q4 GDP The expectation is 0.2% fall in GDP for the December Quarter, following two quarters of extremely strong growth. This does not necessarily mark the start of a recession. GDP data has been choppy since Covid, and the details don’t tell a consistent story about whether monetary policy is biting. Nevertheless, it does show that the economy is coming from a less overheated starting point than the Reserve Bank thought. We think that will nudge them towards a smaller 25 basis point hike at the April OCR review. The New Zealand economy went on a tear through the middle part of last year, as the return of overseas tourists lifted GDP by almost 4% over the June and September quarters. Coming off the back of that, we were already bracing for much more subdued growth in December quarter. But the final batch of indicators released last week actually suggest a slight contraction. We now estimate that GDP fell by 0.2% in the December quarter. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 14, 2023 Report Share Posted March 14, 2023 Gold Price Rallies As SVB Failure Casts Doubt for Fed Rate Hikes The price of gold carves a series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempt to test the February low of $1805, and the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) may continue to heighten the appeal of bullion as market participants scale back bets for higher US interest rates. The price of gold trades back above the 50-day SMA as it rallies to a fresh monthly high, and the precious metal may once again track the positive slope in the moving average as fears surrounding the US banking sector drags on the risk-taking behavior. As a result, the threat of contagion may lead to a flight to safety even as the Federal Reserve announces that it will make available additional funding to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors, and it remains to be seen if the Federal Open Market Committee will adjust the forward guidance for monetary policy as central bank is slated to release the updated Summary of Economic Projections on March 22. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 15, 2023 Report Share Posted March 15, 2023 Sentiment Improves as China Data Boosts Hopes of 5% Growth China’s banks lent a record 4.9 trillion yen in January as the economy reopened from lockdowns. And there was some anticipation to see whether the new loans were making their way through the economy to aid the governments GDP target of around 5% this year. Early data suggests they are: Retail rose to 3.5% as expected, up from -1.8% previously. Fixed asset investment rose 5.5%, above 4.4% expected and 5.1% prior. Industrial output rose 2.4% y/y. This was below estimates of 2.6% y/y, is a big improvement from 1.4% in January. During the accompanying press conference, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) cited seasonality for the slight rise in the unemployment rate to 5.5%, but more importantly, China’s growth target of around 5% is in line with economic data although the economy does face many challenges. Read more : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 16, 2023 Report Share Posted March 16, 2023 AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired By Failure To Test AUD/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the 200-Day SMA as it fails to clear the week high, but data prints coming out of Australia may prop up the exchange rate as job growth is expected to rebound in February. AUD/USD largely mirrors the weakness across the commodity bloc currencies as it gives back the advance from the monthly low 0.6565, and the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the long-term moving average as the Reserve Bank of Australia seems to be nearing the end of its hiking-cycle. The update to Australia’s Employment report may generate a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as the economy is anticipated to add 48.5k jobs in February, and a positive development may push the RBA to pursue a more restrictive policy as the Board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target. In turn, AUD/USD may face headwinds ahead of the next RBA rate decision as Governor Lowe and Co. prepare Australian households and businesses for a wait-and-see approach, and the exchange rate may struggle to retain the advance from the monthly low 0.6565 amid the failed attempt to clear the week high 0.6717. Read more : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 17, 2023 Report Share Posted March 17, 2023 ECB Hike 50bps but Euro Slips Dovish rate hike by ECB EUR falls across the board Attention turns to Lagarde at ECB presser The ECB had set itself up to disappoint some market participants after talking up 50 basis points. As it turned out, and despite all the troubles in the banking sector, it stuck to script and delivered that 50-bps hike. Initially, the euro rose a tiny bit, but then it slumped. The DAX hit a new weekly and multi-month low, before bouncing back a little off its worst levels. Keep an eye on the EUR/JPY, which could drop to a new low for the year in light of the risk off sentiment. Traders realized that this was the best ECB could have done in these circumstances. By not hiking and going back on their words, this would have seen the ECB lose some credibility. It had to hike. But here is the clever bit: the ECB also didn’t want to disappoint those who were calling for a smaller or no rate hike at all. So, it provided no forward guidance or commitment to future hikes. It said that “the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data-dependent approach to the Governing Council’s policy rate decision”. In other words, this was as dovish a rate hike as you would have seen in these circumstances. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 20, 2023 Report Share Posted March 20, 2023 Cautious Trade to start the week, EUR/AUD Focused Australia’s ASX 200 index fell by -96.3 points and currently trades at 6,898.50. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -360.97 points and currently trades at 26,972.82. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index has fallen by -534.15 points and currently trades at 18,984.44 China’s A50 index has fallen by -28.90 points and currently trades at 12,866.03 UK and Europe: UK’s FTSE 100 futures are currently down -16.5 points, the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,318.90 Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently down -35 points, the cash market is currently estimated to open at 14,733.20 US Futures: DJI futures are currently down -30 points S&P 500 futures are currently up 2.25 points Nasdaq 100 futures are currently up 16 points It has been a quiet session overnight, as traders wait to see how Europe reacts to the weekend’s headlines. The Fed, ECB, BOJ, SNB, BOE and BOC have coordinated action to boost liquidity via their standing swap arrangements to support financial stability. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 21, 2023 Report Share Posted March 21, 2023 RBA Board opens the door to a pause in April The Minutes emphasize a high degree of uncertainty; do not take into account the global banking disruptions; and point to a pause in April. The Minutes of the Reserve Bank Board meeting on March 7 highlight that unlike recent meetings when several policy options were considered the March meeting only considered the case for 25 basis point increase – the resulting decision. However the Minutes note that “Members agreed to reconsider the case for a pause at the following meeting, recognizing that pausing would allow additional time to reassess the outlook for economy.” There is considerable discussion of market pricing in the Minutes. “ Market pricing implied a 25 basis point increase in the cash rate at the March meeting and suggested that the cash rate would peak at around 4.25% in the second half of 2023,” – with the market response to the global disruptions to the financial sector this pricing has fallen to below 3.6%; that is no further rate hikes with the possibility of rate cuts. Similarly on international markets the Minutes refer to, “Market participants’ expectations of the path policy rate in advanced economies had shifted up since the previous meeting.” Now, market pricing for the FOMC is predicting a series of rate cuts over the course of 2023. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 27, 2023 Report Share Posted March 27, 2023 EUR/USD Approaches Key Support, Dollar Could Resume Losses EUR/USD started a downside correction from the 1.0930 level. It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0810 on the 4-hours chart. GBP/USD is consolidating gains above the 1.2200 support zone. USD/JPY extended losses below the 130.50 support zone. EUR/USD The Euro started a major increase above the 1.0750 resistance against the US dollar. EUR/USD even climbed above 1.0900 before it started a downside correction. Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair traded as high as 1.0929 before it faced sellers. There was a drop below the 1.0850 and 1.0820 support levels. The pair even traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 1.0810. However, the pair is still above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0750. The next major support is near the 1.0720 level, below which there is a risk of a move towards the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours). Any more losses might open the doors for a fresh decline towards the 1.0520 level. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 28, 2023 Report Share Posted March 28, 2023 GBP/USD Eyes Sustained Increase Above GBP/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.2220 level. A connecting bullish trend line is forming with support at 1.2240 on the 4-hours chart. EUR/USD is well supported above the 1.0720 support zone. USD/JPY might attempt a recovery wave if it clears the 132.00 resistance. GBP/USD The British Pound gained pace above the 1.2050 resistance against the US dollar. GBP/USD broke the 1.2150 level to settle in a positive zone. Looking at the 4-hours chart, the pair even settled above the 1.2200 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hours) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hours). It traded towards 1.2350 before there was a downside correction. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 29, 2023 Report Share Posted March 29, 2023 Australia February Monthly CPI Indicator The Monthly CPI indicator rose 6.8% in the year to February, compared with the Westpac forecast of 7.4% year-on-year and the market forecast of 7.2% year-on-year. This represents a significant downside risk to our March forecast CPI forecast of 1.5% per quarter. Specifically, the index rose only 0.2% in February versus our forecast of 0.8%; we believe the market median would have been about 0.6% given the 7.2% annual forecast. Compared with the average monthly increase of 0.9%mth in the last three months of 2022, the first two prints of 2023 represent a significant slowdown in inflation: -0.4% in January and 0.2% in February. The monthly CPI indicator can fluctuate widely from month to month, as it is not a true monthly index, but rather the publication of data from the quarterly CPI, as they become available. This volatility is due to the timing of the various price surveys. This could be the reason why ABS reports the annual growth rate and not the monthly change. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 30, 2023 Report Share Posted March 30, 2023 German and Spanish Inflation Prints in Focus The main focus today will be on the German and Spanish flash inflation data, which will provide the first sense of what to expect from the euro area HICP figures tomorrow. Generally, we forecast gradually easing headline inflation, but see core inflation pressures still remaining at elevated levels. Euro area Economic Sentiment Indicators will also be released for March today. The 60 second overview Market sentiment: Asian equities are in red, while stock market futures are mixed in Europe and the US. In the absence of any news triggers, markets are tuning in for the Spanish and German inflation prints due this morning. US banks: The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) is facing almost USD 23bn in costs from the failures of Signature and Silicon Valley Banks. Now, according to Bloomberg, the FDIC is contemplating to propose a so-called special assessment to speed up the process of refilling the fund, and the plan entails an outsize contribution by the largest lenders. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted March 31, 2023 Report Share Posted March 31, 2023 Gold Price Vulnerable to Persistent US Inflation The cost of gold might organize further endeavors to test the 2022 high ($2071) as it moves to a new week-after-week high ($1984), however new information print emerging from the US might prompt a pullback in bullion as the Individual Utilization Use (PCE) cost file is supposed to show tenacious expansion. Late improvements in the cost of gold raise the extension for a move towards the month-to-month high ($2010) as it cleans the reach bound cost activity off of recently, and the valuable metal might follow the positive slant in the 50-Day SMA ($1892) as the Central bank gives off an impression of being on target to change gears. Notwithstanding, the update to the US PCE, the Federal Reserve’s favored measure for expansion, may create headwinds for bullion as the center rate is supposed to hold consistent at 4.7% per annum in February. Indications of tacky value development might push the Government Open Market Panel (FOMC) to seek after a more prohibitive strategy as expansion stays well over the national bank’s 2% objective, and Executive Jerome Powell and Co. may convey another 25bp rate climb at the following loan fee choice on May 3 particularly as ‘financial pointers have commonly come in more grounded than anticipated.’ Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted April 3, 2023 Report Share Posted April 3, 2023 US Takes Center Stage in this Holiday-Shorted Week The steep decline in strength costs over the previous few months prompted March headline inflation in Europe to decline considerably year-over-year (from 8.5% to 6.9%). Rising core inflation and excessive m/m readings on the other hand confirmed that this is solely the effortless phase in the lengthy experience again in the direction of the 2% target. But with US (core) PCE inflation for February later on Friday additionally cooling barely greater than expected, the market center of attention lied elsewhere. The downleg in core bond yields accelerated, main to losses in the US between 8.1 and 11.4 bps throughout the curve. German yields slid 6.6 to 9.6 bps. Equities ended the quarter on a fine note. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied 0.69%. It even set a new YtD excessive intraday at 4325. US bourses rose between 1.26% (DJI) and 1.74% (Nasdaq). The euro on forex markets hit the March excessive at 1.0926 earlier than technical resistance (and possibly some euro fatigue) kicked in. EUR/USD sooner or later completed at 1.0839, down from 1.0905 at the open. The US greenback in well-known traded strong, gaining in opposition to most peers. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted April 4, 2023 Report Share Posted April 4, 2023 Australian Dollar Dips After RBA Leave Rates Unchanged The Australian Dollar slipped slightly in the aftermath of the RBA standing still on rates for the first time since May 2022. The RBA maintained some flexibility and didn’t rule out future hikes. In the accompanying statement on monetary policy, they said, “The Board expects that some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed to ensure that inflation returns to target.” Interest rate markets are currently pricing no more hikes and a better-than-even chance of a 25 basis point cut by the end of the year. Today’s price action comes after a massive rally for the Aussie yesterday. Markets were rattled by the huge surge in crude oil prices after OPEC+ cut its crude oil production target by 1.1 million barrels per day. The move compounded existing tightening supply issues. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted April 5, 2023 Report Share Posted April 5, 2023 First Impressions: RBNZ Monetary Policy Review The RBNZ raised the policy rate by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points, and another 25 basis point hike appears to be scheduled for the May Monetary Policy Statement. RBNZ Monetary Policy Report, April 2023 The Reserve Bank surprisingly raised the OCR by 50 basis points to 5.25% at today’s review, rather than 25 basis points as most expected. Overall, the RBNZ sees the overall profile for inflation pressures as relatively unchanged since February, when its projections showed that the OCR should rise to 5.5% in the first half of 2023. The RBNZ acknowledged the weaker starting point for GDP. However, the downward impact on its projections was offset by upward shocks to prices from the recent floods and Cyclone Gabrielle. The RBNZ remains concerned about the potential for inflation expectations to be unanchored by the current high levels of core and headline inflation. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtreamforex26 Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Asia Shows its Strength as US Growth Prospects Dwindle In Australia, the RBA was the focus of market participants’ attention. Outside the country, the RBNZ reaffirmed its hawkish resolve, while U.S. data weakened noticeably. The RBA decided to leave the key interest rate unchanged at 3.60% in April, a decision that was in line with Westpac’s forecast. In line with the decision, the Governor’s statement included a subtle change to the guidance, indicating that further tightening “may be required” in March, rather than “will be required.” While this certainly still qualifies as a tightening bias, after 350 rate hikes in the past decade, the central bank board is increasingly concerned about the need to assess the full spectrum of risk. In our view, the evolution of underlying inflationary pressures is critical to the near-term stance of monetary policy. Westpac projects that inflation will average 6.6% for the year in the first quarter, an outcome that the RBA is likely to find uncomfortably high against the backdrop of a historically tight labour market, thus warranting a policy response. As a result, we continue to expect a final 25 basis point rate hike in May, taking the policy rate to a peak of 3.85%, where we believe it will remain until the end of 2023. If economic momentum continues to slow and inflation risks subside, a series of rate cuts may be implemented in 2024 and 2025 to bring policy back toward neutrality and facilitate a recovery in economic growth. Read More : Daily & Weekly Analysis On Xtreamforex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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