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AUD/USD TO STAGE LARGER REBOUND ON UPBEAT AUSTRALIA EMPLOYMENT REPORT

Australiaā€™s Employment report may fuel the recent rebound inĀ AUD/USDĀ as the economy is expected to add another 16.5K jobs in June, and signs of a stronger labor market may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy as ā€˜strong growth in employment has been accompanied by a significant rise in labour force participation.ā€™

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

A batch of positive developments may push the RBA to drop its cautious tone as ā€˜recent data on the Australian economy continue to be consistent with the Bankā€™s central forecast for GDP growth to average a bit above 3 per cent in 2018 and 2019,ā€™ and GovernorĀ Philip LoweĀ & Co. may start to show a greater willingness to lift the official cash rate off of the record-low as ā€˜other forward-looking indicators continue to point to solid growth in employment.ā€™

However, a below-forecast print for Australia employment may produce headwinds for theĀ Australian dollaras it saps bets for an RBA rate-hike in 2018, and the central bank may stick to the current script at the next meeting on August 7 as ā€˜household income has been growing slowly and debt levels are high.

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JAPANESE YEN STEADY AFTER CPI DATA, LOOKS NEXT TO TRADE WAR RISK

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TALKING POINTS:

  • Japanese YenĀ looks pastĀ mostly in-lineĀ localĀ inflation data in favor of sentiment
  • National CPI is still well under the Bank of Japanā€™s 2% inflation target
  • YenĀ mayĀ rise asĀ trade war tensions may increase risk aversion

The Japanese Yen started Fridayā€™s trading session only slightly affected by the release of local inflation data, holding steady against its US counterpartĀ as anticipated. Juneā€™s national CPI was 0.7%, lower than economistsā€™ forecasts of 0.8% and in line with Mayā€™s result. The gauge excluding fresh food matched forecasts, clocking in at 0.8%, a slight uptick from the prior 0.7%. The one further excluding energy was 0.2%, lower than both the 0.4% expected and 0.3%prior.

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BITCOIN AND ETHEREUM PRICE FORECAST ā€“ BTC PRICES STEADY

The prices have been consolidating and ranging but the bulls should be encouraged by the gains that have been ade over the last few days.
The BTC prices continued to consolidate and range below the $7500 region which is something that was expected considering the breakout that we had seen during the middle of the week. Generally a breakout is followed by consolidation and then a correction back towards the highs of the range that had a breakout and we now await and see whether the correction happens. So far, it has not happened and it remains to be seen whether the correction would happen or whether the prices would continue to move higher after the consolidation phase is over. The bulls have established control and they should be happy now that they have been able to hold on to their gains over the past 2 days.

BTC Prices Holds on to Gains

This means that the breakout could be here to stay and it in turn would give a lot of confidence for those traders and the investors who are on the sidelines. It should also make the short sellers think twice before trying to short the market again and all this points to the continued bullishness in the markets over the short and medium term as well. The big investors, funds and the banks continue to queue up to enter the crypto market and also use the underlying blockchain technology to improve their infrastructure and the way that they do the transactions and all this points to a strong market in the future.

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EUR/GBP TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: EURO BREAKS KEY RESISTANCE

EUR/GBP TECHNICAL STRATEGY: FLAT
Euro breaks above 9-month chart resistance against British Pound
A break of March swing high might open the way above 0.90 figure
Near-term positioning hints entering long trade premature for now
The Euro may be on the cusp of launching a sustained move higher against the British Pound after breaching nine-month trend resistance.

With the series of lower highs and lows established from October 2017 now invalidated, prices look poised to challenge the March 7 high at 0.8968. A daily close above that opens the door for a test of the October 12 peak at 0.9033. Alternatively, a turn back below resistance-turned-support ā€“ now at 0.8876 ā€“ exposes a rising trend line guiding the upswing since mid-June (currently at 0.8841).

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A look at shorter-term positioning seems to argue against buying in however. The four-hour chart reveals that the near-term uptrend has been broken, with a deeper pullback possible if the pair manages to get below 0.8924. From a tactical perspective, it seems premature to commit to commit on the long side before this retracement finds a demonstrable bottom.

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BITCOIN ā€“ THE BULLS ARE IN CONTROL, AS BITCOIN EXTENDS ITS GAINS

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Another positive move by Bitcoin on Saturday saw weekly gains extended, as the bulls look to round off a solid week.

Bitcoin gained 0.96% on Saturday, partially reversing the weekā€™s only loss on Friday, to end the day at $7,403.4, with Bitcoin up 16.64% for the current week.

A start of the day slide to an intraday low $7,221 saw Bitcoin call on support at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 to avoid heavier losses and a resumption of the extended bearish trend that had been formed at 5thĀ Mayā€™s swing hi $9,999.

Bitcoin recovered through to a mid-morning $7,356.2 high that fell short of the first major resistance level at $7,587.63, before pulling back to test support at $7,300 through the late morning.

An afternoon rally saw Bitcoin break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level once more, easing immediate concerns of a tumble and a reversal of the near-term bullish trend, formed back at 24thĀ Juneā€™s swing lo $5,755.

Bitcoin stuck an intraday high $7,459 in the late afternoon and, while Bitcoin fell short of testing the dayā€™s first major resistance level at $7,587.63, moving back through to $7,400 levels was key for the Bitcoin bulls, a pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 likely to see Bitcoin back at sub-$7,000 levels.

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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST ā€“ UPTREND LINE HOLDS AS SUPPORT

The US dollar has fallen against the Japanese yen yet again during the day on Monday but has found support at a trendline that crosses just below the Ā„111 level. It looks as if the market is trying to recover from here, and I do think that we will see a short-term bounce. Much of the selling has been due to concerns about a currency war, but in the end I believe that this market will eventually attract enough value hunters to turn around.

You can see on the hourly chart we crashed towards the uptrend line only to bounce. In fact, it was a perfect test of the uptrend line, and I believe that some value hunters are starting to come into the marketplace now. This bounce could be bought, but then again I think itā€™s going to be noisy regardless of what is going to happen over the next several days. Because of this, I would anticipate that smaller position sizes should be employed, as although there is a significant amount of demand just below, there is a lot of noise above. Longer-term,Ā this pairĀ does tend to move with risk appetite, so if we get some type of calming of trade tensions, this market will turn around.

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BITCOIN ā€“ THE BULLS ARE GETTING HUNGRY FOR MORE

Bitcoin is on the move early, following last weekā€™s double digit gains, with the bulls now targeting $8,000 levels. Weā€™ve been here beforeā€¦

Bitcoin slipped by just 0.09% on Sunday, following Saturdayā€™s 0.96% gain, to end the week up 16.54% to $7,396.8.

It was a choppy start to the day, Bitcoin pulling back to a start of the day intraday low $7,329.1 before a move through to a morning high $7,486.9 in the early hours, with a more extended run kicking off in the late morning.

Off the back of a slide back to $7,300 levels, the late morning recovery saw Bitcoin break through the first major resistance level at $7,501.27 to a late in the day intraday high $7,575, before a broad based market sell-off saw Bitcoin pullback to sub-$7,400 levels by the dayā€™s end.

In spite of the choppy day that left Bitcoin in the red, the near-term bullish trend remained intact, with the weekā€™s gains seeing Bitcoin avoiding a slide through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,230 to resume the extended bearish trend, formed back at 5thĀ Mayā€™s swing hi $9,999.

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STRONG AUSTRALIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) TO FUEL AUD/USD REBOUND

TRADING THE NEWS: AUSTRALIA CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
Updates to Australiaā€™s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may fuel the recent rebound in AUD/USD as the headline reading for inflation is projected to increase to 2.2% from 1.9% per annum in the first-quarter of 2018.The Australian dollar may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the remainder of the month should the data prints put pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy, and the central bank may start to change its tune in the second-half of the year as inflation approaches the central bankā€™s target of 2-3%.In turn, Governor Philip Lowe & Co. may prepare Australian households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs at the next meeting on August 7, but another below-forecast CPI print may drag on the Australian dollar as it encourages the RBA to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low throughout 2018.

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BITCOIN HITS $8000 FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TWO MONTH

Over the last 24 hours, BTC added more than 4% and overcame an important psychological level of $8,000, which sets optimists on the proximity of the new milestone of $10,000.

Cryptomarket actively replaces altcoins in portfolios with the Bitcoin. Over the last 24 hours, BTC added more than 4% and overcame an important psychological level of $8,000, which sets optimists on the proximity of the new milestone of $10,000. Bitcoin was trading at $8189 at the time of writing.

The top 10 coins for capitalizations show either a decrease or a slight increase from + 1.5% for Ethereum (ETH) to -52% for the Bitcoin Diamond (BCD), according to CoinMarketCap.The increase in the demand for the Bitcoin (BTC) coincides with the boost for daily volumes traded by 60% from $3.5 billionĀ on MondayĀ to $5.6 billion today. Investors bet for the market warming up with institutional money, as well as for the creation of investment products that would lead the demand for the Bitcoin (BTC) to a new mainstream level.

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CRUDE OIL, GOLD PRICES MAY RETREAT AS DOVISH ECB BOOSTS US DOLLAR

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
Crude oil prices rise as EIA reports dramatic inventory drawdown
Gold prices swing to range top courtesy of Trump/Junker meeting
Dovish ECB might boost US Dollar, weighing on commodity prices
Crude oil prices shot higher as EIA inventory data showed stockpiles shed 6.15 million barrels last week, an outflow nearly three times larger than the projected 2.23 barrel draw. The outcome likewise dwarfed the larger 3.16 million barrel decrease signaled in a private-sector estimate from API.

Gold prices swung higher as the US Dollar weakened, boosting the appeal of the standby anti-fiat alternative. The greenback drifted lower as traders reduced exposure ahead of the closely watched meeting between US and European Commission presidents Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Junker, respectively.

COMMODITIES MAY FALL AS DOVISH ECB BOOSTS US DOLLAR
Looking ahead, the knock-on influence of the ECB monetary policy announcement may emerge as defining for near-term price action. The central bank has already put the path of QE asset purchases on autopilot through year-end but traders will want guidance on when rates will begin to rise thereafter.

ECB President Mario Draghi will almost certainly face a barrage of questions to this end at the press conference following the announcement. Earlier messaging suggested a hike wonā€™t come at least until the end of summer 2019. As of now, market pricing has written off an increase until the fourth quarter.

Eurozone economic news-flow has cautiously improved in recent weeks, producing a cautious hawkish shift in expectations. The likelihood of an October hike has increased from 58.7 to 80 percent since mid-June. A call for restraint from the ever-cautious Mr Draghi might cool such optimism however.

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BITCOIN ā€“ $8,000 TICK, NEXT!

A choppy start to the day, but with Bitcoin avoiding an early sell-off, itā€™s a day of consolidation at worst.
Bitcoin jumped by 8.52% on Tuesday, following on from Mondayā€™s 4.33% gain and last weekā€™s 16.5% rally, to end the day at $8,376.2.

It was onwards and upwards throughout the day, with barely any red on the chart, as Bitcoin moved from a start of a day intraday low $7,690 through the dayā€™s first major resistance level at $7,901.2 and second major resistance level at $8,083.6 to a late in the day intraday high and new swing hi $8,506.7, coming within reach of the third major resistance level at $8,529.6 before easing back to $8,300 levels.

The moves through the day left little doubt of Bitcoinā€™s bearish trend reversal, with the near-term bullish trend having been formed at 24th Juneā€™s swing lo $5,755

For the Bitcoin Bulls, the first part of the recovery mission is complete, with Bitcoin gaining strong momentum in the run through to $8,000 levels, side lined investors jumping in on hopes of a move back through to $10,000, while investors exposed to altcoins also moved back into Bitcoin that has outperformed the likes of Bitcoin Cash and left Litecoin and Rippleā€™s XRP in the dust, the Bitcoin dominance reflecting the shift in sentiment since Mayā€™s dip.

On the news wires, talk of the SEC bringing the Bitcoin ETF debate back to the table provided support through the start of the week, while last weekā€™s talk of the cryptomarket posing no threat to global financial stability, as outlined by the FSB and regulators, eased market fears of a heavy handed set of new rules and regs that could cripple the market, which had kicked off the Bitcoin rebound that led to Bitcoinā€™s 16.5% gain last week.

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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST ā€“ US DOLLAR TRYING TO FIND BASE AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

The US dollar drifted a bit lower to open the Wednesday session, as we are looking at support below based upon an uptrend line, and of course the psychologically important Ā„111 level. I believe at this point we are starting to see value hunters come back into the marketplace, offering an opportunity to pick up the US dollar ā€œon the cheap.ā€

The US dollarĀ has dropped a bit to start out the session on Wednesday but has an uptrend line just below to offer a significant amount of support. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the Ā„112 level. Overall, I believe that the market could perhaps go looking towards the Ā„113 level after that. If we break down below the uptrend line, then we are probably looking at a move towards the Ā„110 level.

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GOLD PRICES MAY DROP AS US GDP BOOSTS FED OUTLOOK, DOLLAR

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold pricesĀ fall as dovish ECB translates into strongerĀ US Dollar
  • Crude oil pricesĀ edge up on inventory data, Saudi shipment halt
  • US GDP data might keep gold under pressure, oil impact unclear

GoldĀ prices turned lower as the US Dollar returned to the offensive, tarnishing the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. An early retracement of the prior dayā€™s downswing was compounded by a dovish ECB policy announcement, which sankĀ EUR/USDĀ and echoed as broader support for the greenback (asĀ expected).

Meanwhile,Ā crude oilĀ prices continued to edge higher, finding continued support in anĀ impressive set of EIA inventory figures. News that Saudi Arabia suspended shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Houthi attacks on two of its tankers probably helped as well.

GOLD PRICES VULNERABLE AS US GDP DATA BOOSTS DOLLAR

The spotlight now turns toĀ US GDPĀ data. Economists expect to see that the annualized growth rate ticked up to 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest in almost four years. A strong result may boost bets on a fourth Fed rate hike in 2018. Its probability is now priced in at 57.8 percent.

The US Dollar is likely to extend gains in this scenario, weighing on gold prices. The likely response from crude oil is clouded however. A pickup in growth bodes well for cycle-sensitive commodities butĀ USDstrength applies de-facto downside pressure. Time will tell which catalyst proves to be more potent.

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BITCOIN ā€“ A BIG FEW DAYS FOR THE BULLS TO GET THROUGH

Sub-$8,200 support has kept Bitcoin at bay, but another pullback to $8,100 levels could see the weekā€™s gains at risk. Itā€™s a key part of the week.

Bitcoin fell by 2.46% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesdayā€™s 8.52% gain, to end the day at $8,183.1.

In a relatively choppy start to the day, Bitcoin moved through to a start of the day intraday high $8,488.1, coming up short of the first major resistance level at $8,691.93 and Tuesdayā€™s $8,506.7 high, before a mid-morning reversal saw Bitcoin slide through to a mid-afternoon intraday low $8,073.

A late in the day recovery saved Bitcoin from heavier losses on the day, which would have seen Bitcoin slide back to sub-$8,000 levels to bring the first major support level at 7,857.23 and, more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 into play.

For the Bitcoin bulls, Wednesdayā€™s pullback was more of a consolidation than a shift in sentiment, with Bitcoin finding the necessary support through the day to avoid sub-$8,000 levels.

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GOLD PRICE PREDICTION ā€“ GOLD SLIPS FOLLOWING ECB DECISION
Gold prices edged lower after running into resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,230, following the ECB meeting where the central bank left rates unchanged and said stimulus is still needed. The ECB was slightly more confident on growth and inflation and is poised to end its quantitative easing program in December and hold rates steady until the summer of 2019. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the July lows at 1,211 and then the July 2017 lows at 1,204. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. Softer than expected U.S. Durable goods data helped capped the greenback, which has placed a floor under gold prices.

ECB left policy rates on hold and confirmed the guidance on QE

ECB left policy rates on hold and confirmed the guidance on QE, with net asset purchases expected to be reduced from October and phased out at the end of December this year. Rates are still expected to remain unchanged at least through the summer of 2019, so at least in the initial statement no clarification on whether that means until the end of September next year.

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EURO FORECAST: EURO UNLIKELY TO FIND DIRECTION BETWEEN JULY CPI OR Q2ā€™18 GDP

TheĀ EuroĀ slipped at the end of the week after ECB President Draghi made clear that no rate hikes are coming for a year or more.

ā€“ Neither the July Eurozone Consumer Price Index or the Q2ā€™18 Eurozone GDP release will materially impact rate expectations, and therefore, the Euro.

TheĀ IG Client Sentiment IndexĀ has shifted to a ā€˜mixedā€™ outlook from ā€˜bullishā€™ earlier last week.

The Euro struggled in the second half of the week, finishing as the third-worst performing major currency. Knocked lower by the European Central Bank and President Mario Draghiā€™s press conference on Wednesday,Ā EUR/CADĀ led the way lower by -1.22%, whileĀ EUR/USDĀ dropped by -0.57%. But withĀ EUR/CHFandĀ EUR/GBPĀ pushing higher, itā€™s too soon to say that a broad bearish bias for the Euro is appropriate.

Even though the ECBā€™s policy meeting this week resulted in a weaker Euro over the course of President Draghiā€™s press conference, there was no significant shift in current policy or future expectations, so we shouldnā€™t necessarily be anticipating Thursdayā€™s meeting to be ground zero for a bearish trend to start anew.

As was anticipatedĀ ahead of the meeting, the ECBā€™s July policy statement ā€“ and Draghiā€™s press conference ā€“ were near carbon copies of Juneā€™s iteration, insofar as the ECB did not move on rates, change its expected timeline for ending its QE program (December 2018), or change its expected timeline for its first rate hike (summer 2019). Against this backdrop, the Euro may be entering a period where, due to monetary policy being on a preset course, it is not the dominant currency in any pairing (i.e. EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP, or EUR/USD, etc.) for the foreseeable future.

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BITCOIN FACES DIFFICULTIES WITH GROWTH OVER 8K

This week, many market players have been betting that the market has passed the bottom and is moving towards highs at $20K in anticipation of new projects, the launch of ETFā€™s and institutional money.Ā ButĀ it may well be that the increase observed in July is all that the cryptomarketĀ could demonstrate in the upcoming months.

The Bitcoin course (BTC) fell below $8.000 on the news that the US SEC had rejected the second WinklevossĀ twinsā€™Ā attempt to launch Bitcoin ETF, which negatively affected the prospects of all similar projects. The expectation that the regulator would allow ETF launches have been the main growth driver in recent weeks, and now the market can face a serious rollback.

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EUR/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ā€“ LOOKING FOR LOW VOLUME, RANGEBOUND TRADE

Based on the early trade at 1.1651, the direction of the EUR/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1663. If volume drops ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday, we could see a rangebound trade for a couple of days between 1.1680 and 1.1617.

The Euro is treading water against the U.S. Dollar early Monday in what could become a theme this week until the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy statement on Wednesday. There are no major economic reports this week from the Euro Zone. On Tuesday, investors will get the opportunity to react to the Conference Boardā€™s Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, before the Fed announcement, the U.S. will release data from ADP on private sector jobs and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. The clash between the major and minor trends is what is helping to give the EUR/USD a sideways look.

A trade through 1.1751 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 1.1575 will change the main trend to down.

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BITCOIN BACK IN THE RED, WITH VOLATILITY TESTING THE BULLS

Itā€™s another poor start to the day, with Bitcoin managing to steer clear of support levels early. Holding on to $8,100 levels will be key.
Bitcoin fell by 0.63% on Monday, following on from Sundayā€™s 0.17% loss, to end the day at $8,168.7.

A choppy start to the day saw Bitcoin recover from a fall through the first major support level at $8,125.57 to a morning low $8,065.1, bouncing back to an early intraday high $8,301.7, just short of the first major resistance level at $8,315.87.

Negative sentiment across the market weighed through the late morning and early afternoon, with Bitcoin sliding back through the first major support level at $8,125.57 and second major support level at $8,029.13 to an intraday low $7,861.2 before a late afternoon recovery.

The break back through the major support levels by the dayā€™s end was certainly a positive, with Bitcoin also managing to steer clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 on the day, the moves affirming the near-term bullish trend that was formed back at 24thĀ Juneā€™s swing lo $5,755.

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NZD/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ā€“ MOVE OVER .6833 COULD FUEL RALLY INTO .6851

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at .6833 and the 50% level at .6805. The main range is .6922 to .6688. Its retracement zone at .6805 to .6833 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower early Tuesday. Traders are reacting to weaker-than-expected domestic data and a disappointing manufacturing report from China.

In New Zealand, Building Consents fell 7.6% versus a 6.9% previous report. ANZ Business Confidence was -44.9. Last month the report was -39.0.

In China, factory activity was slightly lower than expected in July, with the official manufacturing Purchasing Managerā€™s Index (PMI) coming in at 51.2. The Chinese manufacturing PMI had been forecast to fall to 51.3 in July from 51.5 in June, according to a poll of economists by Reuters. Chinaā€™s official services PMI also fell in July. The report showed a reading of 54.0 from 55.0 in June.

New Zealand Dollar traders are now waiting for the Bank of Japanā€™s monetary policy decision.

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