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BITCOIN – $8,000 TICK, NEXT!

A choppy start to the day, but with Bitcoin avoiding an early sell-off, it’s a day of consolidation at worst.
Bitcoin jumped by 8.52% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 4.33% gain and last week’s 16.5% rally, to end the day at $8,376.2.

It was onwards and upwards throughout the day, with barely any red on the chart, as Bitcoin moved from a start of a day intraday low $7,690 through the day’s first major resistance level at $7,901.2 and second major resistance level at $8,083.6 to a late in the day intraday high and new swing hi $8,506.7, coming within reach of the third major resistance level at $8,529.6 before easing back to $8,300 levels.

The moves through the day left little doubt of Bitcoin’s bearish trend reversal, with the near-term bullish trend having been formed at 24th June’s swing lo $5,755

For the Bitcoin Bulls, the first part of the recovery mission is complete, with Bitcoin gaining strong momentum in the run through to $8,000 levels, side lined investors jumping in on hopes of a move back through to $10,000, while investors exposed to altcoins also moved back into Bitcoin that has outperformed the likes of Bitcoin Cash and left Litecoin and Ripple’s XRP in the dust, the Bitcoin dominance reflecting the shift in sentiment since May’s dip.

On the news wires, talk of the SEC bringing the Bitcoin ETF debate back to the table provided support through the start of the week, while last week’s talk of the cryptomarket posing no threat to global financial stability, as outlined by the FSB and regulators, eased market fears of a heavy handed set of new rules and regs that could cripple the market, which had kicked off the Bitcoin rebound that led to Bitcoin’s 16.5% gain last week.

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USD/JPY PRICE FORECAST – US DOLLAR TRYING TO FIND BASE AGAINST JAPANESE YEN

The US dollar drifted a bit lower to open the Wednesday session, as we are looking at support below based upon an uptrend line, and of course the psychologically important ¥111 level. I believe at this point we are starting to see value hunters come back into the marketplace, offering an opportunity to pick up the US dollar “on the cheap.”

The US dollar has dropped a bit to start out the session on Wednesday but has an uptrend line just below to offer a significant amount of support. Because of this, I believe that the market will continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the ¥112 level. Overall, I believe that the market could perhaps go looking towards the ¥113 level after that. If we break down below the uptrend line, then we are probably looking at a move towards the ¥110 level.

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GOLD PRICES MAY DROP AS US GDP BOOSTS FED OUTLOOK, DOLLAR

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices fall as dovish ECB translates into stronger US Dollar
  • Crude oil prices edge up on inventory data, Saudi shipment halt
  • US GDP data might keep gold under pressure, oil impact unclear

Gold prices turned lower as the US Dollar returned to the offensive, tarnishing the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. An early retracement of the prior day’s downswing was compounded by a dovish ECB policy announcement, which sank EUR/USD and echoed as broader support for the greenback (as expected).

Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to edge higher, finding continued support in an impressive set of EIA inventory figures. News that Saudi Arabia suspended shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Houthi attacks on two of its tankers probably helped as well.

GOLD PRICES VULNERABLE AS US GDP DATA BOOSTS DOLLAR

The spotlight now turns to US GDP data. Economists expect to see that the annualized growth rate ticked up to 4.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest in almost four years. A strong result may boost bets on a fourth Fed rate hike in 2018. Its probability is now priced in at 57.8 percent.

The US Dollar is likely to extend gains in this scenario, weighing on gold prices. The likely response from crude oil is clouded however. A pickup in growth bodes well for cycle-sensitive commodities but USDstrength applies de-facto downside pressure. Time will tell which catalyst proves to be more potent.

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BITCOIN – A BIG FEW DAYS FOR THE BULLS TO GET THROUGH

Sub-$8,200 support has kept Bitcoin at bay, but another pullback to $8,100 levels could see the week’s gains at risk. It’s a key part of the week.

Bitcoin fell by 2.46% on Wednesday, partially reversing Tuesday’s 8.52% gain, to end the day at $8,183.1.

In a relatively choppy start to the day, Bitcoin moved through to a start of the day intraday high $8,488.1, coming up short of the first major resistance level at $8,691.93 and Tuesday’s $8,506.7 high, before a mid-morning reversal saw Bitcoin slide through to a mid-afternoon intraday low $8,073.

A late in the day recovery saved Bitcoin from heavier losses on the day, which would have seen Bitcoin slide back to sub-$8,000 levels to bring the first major support level at 7,857.23 and, more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 into play.

For the Bitcoin bulls, Wednesday’s pullback was more of a consolidation than a shift in sentiment, with Bitcoin finding the necessary support through the day to avoid sub-$8,000 levels.

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GOLD PRICE PREDICTION – GOLD SLIPS FOLLOWING ECB DECISION
Gold prices edged lower after running into resistance near the 10-day moving average at 1,230, following the ECB meeting where the central bank left rates unchanged and said stimulus is still needed. The ECB was slightly more confident on growth and inflation and is poised to end its quantitative easing program in December and hold rates steady until the summer of 2019. Support on the yellow metal is seen near the July lows at 1,211 and then the July 2017 lows at 1,204. Momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. Softer than expected U.S. Durable goods data helped capped the greenback, which has placed a floor under gold prices.

ECB left policy rates on hold and confirmed the guidance on QE

ECB left policy rates on hold and confirmed the guidance on QE, with net asset purchases expected to be reduced from October and phased out at the end of December this year. Rates are still expected to remain unchanged at least through the summer of 2019, so at least in the initial statement no clarification on whether that means until the end of September next year.

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EURO FORECAST: EURO UNLIKELY TO FIND DIRECTION BETWEEN JULY CPI OR Q2’18 GDP

The Euro slipped at the end of the week after ECB President Draghi made clear that no rate hikes are coming for a year or more.

– Neither the July Eurozone Consumer Price Index or the Q2’18 Eurozone GDP release will materially impact rate expectations, and therefore, the Euro.

The IG Client Sentiment Index has shifted to a ‘mixed’ outlook from ‘bullish’ earlier last week.

The Euro struggled in the second half of the week, finishing as the third-worst performing major currency. Knocked lower by the European Central Bank and President Mario Draghi’s press conference on Wednesday, EUR/CAD led the way lower by -1.22%, while EUR/USD dropped by -0.57%. But with EUR/CHFand EUR/GBP pushing higher, it’s too soon to say that a broad bearish bias for the Euro is appropriate.

Even though the ECB’s policy meeting this week resulted in a weaker Euro over the course of President Draghi’s press conference, there was no significant shift in current policy or future expectations, so we shouldn’t necessarily be anticipating Thursday’s meeting to be ground zero for a bearish trend to start anew.

As was anticipated ahead of the meeting, the ECB’s July policy statement – and Draghi’s press conference – were near carbon copies of June’s iteration, insofar as the ECB did not move on rates, change its expected timeline for ending its QE program (December 2018), or change its expected timeline for its first rate hike (summer 2019). Against this backdrop, the Euro may be entering a period where, due to monetary policy being on a preset course, it is not the dominant currency in any pairing (i.e. EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP, or EUR/USD, etc.) for the foreseeable future.

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BITCOIN FACES DIFFICULTIES WITH GROWTH OVER 8K

This week, many market players have been betting that the market has passed the bottom and is moving towards highs at $20K in anticipation of new projects, the launch of ETF’s and institutional money. But it may well be that the increase observed in July is all that the cryptomarket could demonstrate in the upcoming months.

The Bitcoin course (BTC) fell below $8.000 on the news that the US SEC had rejected the second Winklevoss twins’ attempt to launch Bitcoin ETF, which negatively affected the prospects of all similar projects. The expectation that the regulator would allow ETF launches have been the main growth driver in recent weeks, and now the market can face a serious rollback.

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EUR/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – LOOKING FOR LOW VOLUME, RANGEBOUND TRADE

Based on the early trade at 1.1651, the direction of the EUR/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1663. If volume drops ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday, we could see a rangebound trade for a couple of days between 1.1680 and 1.1617.

The Euro is treading water against the U.S. Dollar early Monday in what could become a theme this week until the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy statement on Wednesday. There are no major economic reports this week from the Euro Zone. On Tuesday, investors will get the opportunity to react to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report. On Wednesday, before the Fed announcement, the U.S. will release data from ADP on private sector jobs and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. The clash between the major and minor trends is what is helping to give the EUR/USD a sideways look.

A trade through 1.1751 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 1.1575 will change the main trend to down.

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BITCOIN BACK IN THE RED, WITH VOLATILITY TESTING THE BULLS

It’s another poor start to the day, with Bitcoin managing to steer clear of support levels early. Holding on to $8,100 levels will be key.
Bitcoin fell by 0.63% on Monday, following on from Sunday’s 0.17% loss, to end the day at $8,168.7.

A choppy start to the day saw Bitcoin recover from a fall through the first major support level at $8,125.57 to a morning low $8,065.1, bouncing back to an early intraday high $8,301.7, just short of the first major resistance level at $8,315.87.

Negative sentiment across the market weighed through the late morning and early afternoon, with Bitcoin sliding back through the first major support level at $8,125.57 and second major support level at $8,029.13 to an intraday low $7,861.2 before a late afternoon recovery.

The break back through the major support levels by the day’s end was certainly a positive, with Bitcoin also managing to steer clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 on the day, the moves affirming the near-term bullish trend that was formed back at 24th June’s swing lo $5,755.

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NZD/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – MOVE OVER .6833 COULD FUEL RALLY INTO .6851

Based on the early price action, the direction of the NZD/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fib level at .6833 and the 50% level at .6805. The main range is .6922 to .6688. Its retracement zone at .6805 to .6833 is currently being tested. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

The New Zealand Dollar is trading lower early Tuesday. Traders are reacting to weaker-than-expected domestic data and a disappointing manufacturing report from China.

In New Zealand, Building Consents fell 7.6% versus a 6.9% previous report. ANZ Business Confidence was -44.9. Last month the report was -39.0.

In China, factory activity was slightly lower than expected in July, with the official manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) coming in at 51.2. The Chinese manufacturing PMI had been forecast to fall to 51.3 in July from 51.5 in June, according to a poll of economists by Reuters. China’s official services PMI also fell in July. The report showed a reading of 54.0 from 55.0 in June.

New Zealand Dollar traders are now waiting for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision.

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EUR/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – RANGEBOUND WHILE STRADDLING PIVOT AT 1.1680

Based on Tuesday’s close and the early trade on Wednesday, the direction of the EUR/USD today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 1.1680. Basically, we’re going to be rangebound until buyers can take out 1.1751 or sellers can break through 1.1621.

The EUR/USD posted a two-sided trade on Tuesday under relatively thin trading conditions. The Euro tried to breakout to the upside early but didn’t have enough buying volume to succeed. It seemed traders weren’t too committed to either direction due to Wednesday’s U.S. Federal Reserve announcement.

In other news, data showed U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in June, while inflation rose moderately. Other data showed employers boosting benefits for workers in the second quarter, but wage growth slowed.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is down. It’s been sideways to lower since the closing price reversal top at 1.1751 on July 23. A trade through this top will negate the chart pattern and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 1.1621.

The EUR/USD has been having trouble with the retracement zone at 1.1680 to 1.1720. Although there have been several breakouts through the top end of the zone, buyers have been unable to hold the Forex pair above it. Furthermore, the market hasn’t strayed too far under the lower or 50% level at 1.1680.

The short-term range is 1.1575 to 1.1751. Its retracement zone at 1.1663 to 1.1642 is acting like support.

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BITCOIN’S RALLY STALLED BELOW $8000, CRYPTOS ARE BACK IN RED

In the middle of the previous week the rally got stuck near $8300 level and since then the Bitcoin’s price has slowly decreased.

Last week it became obvious that the Bitcoin had big difficulties with further growth above $8000. During the weekend, it held above $8,200 mark, but yesterday it suddenly fell below $7900. Most likely, it was “a belated reaction” on SEC refusal to launch the Bitcoin ETF. Nevertheless, shortly after this rollback new buyers entered the market. As a result, trading volumes increased by 22% and the price went back to the latest levels. Market participants evaluated this movement as a large investors’ attempt to prevent the market from the deeper correction.

After a recovery in the past week, the crypto market is back in the red with Ethereum, Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple and Dash fall more than 5%.

At the moment technical analysis is not on a bull side. In the middle of the previous week the rally got stuck near $8300 level and since then the Bitcoin’s price has slowly decreased. RSI indicates sell signals due to its coming back again to the levels below 70 after its peaks a week earlier. This is a bear signal, which could be reinforced in case if the price drops below $7850, recent lows. Then, it might be a sell-off signal not only for the technical analysis fans but also for ordinary investors.

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BITCOIN – THE BEARS ARE COMING TO TOWN

Bitcoin’s hit on Tuesday raises the possibility of a resumption to the bearish trend that saw Bitcoin down at $5,000 levels. Regulatory risk is the key.

Bitcoin tumbled by 5.35% on Tuesday, following a 0.63% fall on Monday, to end the day at $7,741.1.

Playing catch up, following two days of minor losses relative to the broader market, Bitcoin slid from a start of the day intraday high $8,178.9 through the first major support level at $7,919.37 to an early afternoon intraday low $7,664.9, calling on support at the day’s second major support level at $7,670.03 before recovering to $7,700 levels by the day’s end.

While the near-term bullish trend remained intact, with Bitcoin managing to steer clear of the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,456, the pullback through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857 and failure to break back through to $8,000 levels has raised the prospects of a resumption to the bearish trend formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.

An anticipated roll out of rules and regulations across key jurisdictions continue to drive volatility across Bitcoin and the broader market, with the latest news being of the South Korean government clear intent to pass law as quickly as possible to beef up anti-money laundering policies and to introduce minimum standards on the security side that exchanges would need to meet in order to minimise the risk of theft.

A delay to the G20 unified rules and regs to October will likely have led to the South Korean government’s sense of urgency, which raises the question on whether other jurisdictions will follow.

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USD/JPY STRENGTH SPUTTERS AS FED KEEPS KEY INTEREST RATE ON HOLD

JAPANESE YEN TALKING POINTS

The recent advance in USD/JPY sputters as the Federal Reserve keeps the benchmark interest rate on hold, but the fresh string of higher highs & lows may fuel the recent advance in the exchange rate as it breaks out of a narrow range.

The July-high (113.18) remains on the radar following the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda & Co. lower the inflation forecast, and the dovish forward-guidance for monetary policy may keep USD/JPY afloat as the central bank remains in no rush to abandon the Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control.

The Federal Reserve on the other hand appears to be on track to implement higher borrowing-costs even though the central bank keeps the benchmark interest rate on hold in August, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for a less-accommodative stance as ‘the Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term.’

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GOLD PRICES RISK FRESH 2018 LOWS AS RSI FLIRTS WITH OVERSOLD TERRITORY

GOLD TALKING POINTS

The recent rebound in gold continues to unravel, with prices for bullion at risk for fresh yearly lows as the bearish momentum from earlier this year appears to be reasserting itself.

GOLD PRICES RISK FRESH 2018 LOWS AS RSI FLIRTS WITH OVERSOLD TERRITORY

The price for bullion quickly approaches the July-low ($1211) following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and the weakness may persist over the near-term as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. appear to be on track to deliver a rate-hike at the next quarterly meeting in September.

Moreover, Fed Fund Futures suggest market participants are gearing up for four rate-hikes in 2018 as market participants anticipate a move in September and December, and the FOMC’s hiking-cycle may continue to dampen the appeal of gold as the ‘Committee expects that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. Risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced.’

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BITCOIN TURNING BEARISH, WITH THE BEARS EYEING SUB-$7,000

It’s getting bearish for Bitcoin, with the morning slide bringing sub-$7,000 levels into play should sentiment not shift through the early afternoon.

Bitcoin fell by 1.05% on Thursday, following on from Wednesday’s 1.7% decline, to end the day at 7,527, the moves through the day marking a 5th consecutive day in the red.

A choppy start to the day saw Bitcoin move through to an early morning intraday high $7,713 before pulling back to $7,600 levels, the day’s high falling short of the day’s first major resistance level at $7,761.73 and more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $7,857.

Following a relatively range bound morning, Bitcoin finding support while the broader market saw red, a late morning reversal saw Bitcoin fall to a mid-afternoon intraday low $7,450, calling on support at the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,456 before recovering to $7,500 levels late in the day, the day’s low steering clear of the first major support level at $7,445.83.

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BITCOIN MONTHLY FORECAST – AUGUST 2018

The BTC prices were finally able to break through the highs of its range last month and this signals the onset of the bull run.

The bitcoin market began the month of July on a quiet note which was a follow up to the way that the market was trading over the month of June. This was the case during the entire first half of last month and it looked as though the trend would continue for the rest of the month as well as the prices struggled in the $6000 region and it also appeared that it might weaken further in due course of time. But this did not happen as the key region during this period was the price region around $6800. This served as a region of strong resistance and it appeared as the line in the sand between the bulls and the bears.

BTC Resumes Bull Run

If the prices did break through higher, it was clear that it would be enough to push the prices much higher while the market continued to be in control of the bears until the prices were below that region. This situation continued but as time wore on, it became clear that the bulls were beginning to take control as they made repeated attempts to break through the $6800 region and though many of these attempts failed, the correction that followed these attempts becae shorter and shorter and this was a clear indication that the trend was beginning to change.

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USD/CAD SOARS AFTER SAUDI ARABIA FREEZES TRADE WITH CANADA

TALKING POINTS FOR USD/CAD:

  • Canadian Dollar fell against its US counterpart early into Monday’s trading session
  • Hawkish BoC and increasing inflation helped the Loonie pare its losses
  • Housing and employment data releases later in the week may fuel downside momentum

The Canadian Dollar started Monday’s trading session sharply lower against its US counterpart after news of Saudi Arabia expelling the Canadian ambassador crossed wires. The Saudi Press Agency, the nation’s official news outlet, also announced that the country would freeze all new trade and investment deals with Canada. This move comes after Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland urged Saudi authorities over Twitter to release human rights activists from prison.

However, the currency pair’s upside momentum reversed throughout the Asia/Pacific trading hours. Negative impacts of the Saudi Arabian investment and trade embargo may be overshadowed by Canada’s higher inflation and better than expected economic growth. The BoC, which recently raised rates to 1.5% at their July meeting, has been increasingly hawkish and alluded to more increases this year.

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WAIT-AND-SEE RBA TO KEEP AUD/USD UNDER PRESSURE

TRADING THE NEWS: RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) INTEREST RATE DECISION

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision may keep AUD/USD under pressure as the central bank is widely expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.50%.

Fresh comments from the RBA may do little to influence the Australian dollar as the central bank persistently promotes a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and officials may continue to tame bets for an imminent adjustment in the cash rate as ‘the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy.’

As a result, the RBA may merely attempt to buy more time, and more of the same from Governor Philip Lowe& Co. may ultimately produce headwinds for AUD/USD especially as the Federal Reserve appears to be on track to implement additional rate-hikes in 2018.

However, an unexpected shift in the forward-guidance for monetary policy is likely to trigger a bullish reaction as it fuels bets for an RBA rate-hike, and a material adjustment in the central bank rhetoric should heighten the appeal of the Australian dollar as officials prepare to switch gears.

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BITCOIN HOLDS ON TO $7,000

Bitcoin’s on the move early, with $7,200 levels in play should Bitcoin avoid a pullback to sub-$7,000 levels in the first half of the day.

Bitcoin gained just 0.15% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 5.48% tumble, to end the week down 14.55% to $7,023.9.

Moves through the early part of the day saw Bitcoin continue to call on support at sub-$7,000 levels, with Bitcoin falling through the first major support level at $6,912.6 to an early morning intraday low $6,890 before recovering to $7,000 levels through the late morning.

The afternoon failed to deliver a weekend rally for the Bitcoin bulls, with a recovery from a second slide through the first major support level to an afternoon low $6,896.1 leaving Bitcoin relatively flat for the day and trailing the majors, not just on the day, but for the week.

While Bitcoin managed to hold above the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 and hold on to $7,000, the extended bearish trend formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999 remained intact, the latest pullback from $8,000 levels seeing Bitcoin’s bullish trend reverse through the last week.

On the day, the news wires were on the quieter side, providing much needed support to Bitcoin and the broader markets, though Sunday’s moves reflected investor sentiment and concerns over what lies ahead for the broader cryptomarket.

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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 08/08/18

The cryptos are in free fall once more and if the ship doesn’t steady by late morning, there may well be more pain ahead.Bitcoin Cash tumbled by 4.92% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 2.61% fall, to end the day at $657.A mid-morning rally saw Bitcoin Cash move back through to $700 levels, with an intraday high $713 before easing back, with the day’s first major resistance level at $712.5 pinning Bitcoin Cash back from any breakout in the early afternoon.Bitcoin Cash slid through the late afternoon, a broad based news driven market sell-off pulling Bitcoin Cash through the first major support level at $673.7 and second major support level at $656.4 to an intraday low and new swing lo $645.6 before a partial recovery to $650 levels.At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 4.51% as Tuesday’s late sell-off spilled into the early hours of this morning.Bitcoin fell from a start of a day $657 high, through the first major support level at $630.07, to a new swing lo and morning low $626, the morning slide being seen across the broader market.For the day ahead, a move back through the first major support level to $670 levels would support a recovery and bring the day’s first major resistance level at $698.47 into play, though with the negative sentiment weighing, we will expect major resistance levels to be left untested.
 
 

 

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AUD/USD COULD YET RISE ON RBNZ WITH LOWE AND CHINA TRADE PASSED

 

  • Australian Dollar edged cautiously higher on Philip Lowe speech and Chinese trade
  • Ahead, a relatively dovish RBNZ monetary policy announcement could boost Aussie
  • AUD/USD remains in consolidation after recent push higher, eyeing February line.

The Australian Dollar edged cautiously higher as RBA’s Governor Philip Lowespoke. Just yesterday, the central bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 1.50% as expected which marked the 2-year anniversary if its last adjustment. There, the Reserve Bank of Australiadowngraded near-term inflation expectations while simultaneously upgrading more outward looking estimates.Mr. Lowe noted that we should expect inflation to rise and be close to 2.5% by 2020. He also reiterated that the next rate move would be up if the outlook ‘stays favorable’. But before RBA hawks could get excited, Lowe added that he still sees no strong case for a near-term monetary policy adjustment. With that in mind, rate hike bets seemed unaltered as Australian front-end government bond yields remained unchanged.Even so, the Australian Dollar may have benefited from Chinese trade balance statistics which were released at the time of Lowe’s speech. In Dollar terms, net exports clocked in at $28.05b in July versus $38.92b expected. Meanwhile, imports rose 27.3% y/y versus 16.5% anticipated. Exports climbed 12.2% versus 10.0% seen. Keep in mind that this was the first month in which the US imposed tariffs on China imports.The surge in imports could have positive knock-on effects for Australia’s economy given that China is their largest trading partner. Even so, the RBA remains patient before adjusting rates. Ahead, the Australian Dollar could benefit from Wednesday’s RBNZ monetary policy announcement. There, a relatively dovish central bank could hurt the New Zealand Dollar and boost AUD given that the latter is a substitute for it from a yield perspective.

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BITCOIN – THE BEARS TAKE A BREATHER

A relief rally on the way or just a pause in the downward spiral? Holding on to $6,300 levels will be key through the morning.

Bitcoin’s troubles continued on Wednesday, falling by 6.62% off the back of Tuesday’s 3.27% decline, to end the day at $6,273.9.

Negative sentiment towards the latest SEC delay tactic on approving Bitcoin ETFs was left accountable to the broad based market sell-off, with Bitcoin sliding through the first major support level at $6,544 and second major support level at $6,374 to an intraday low $6,128.2.

A late recovery to $6,200 levels was of little consolation to the Bitcoin bulls, with Bitcoin now having some distance to cover to attempt a break back through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level, with sub-$6,000 levels in sight. 3-consecutive days of losses reaffirmed the extended bearish trend formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.

For the Bitcoin bulls, the only good news on the day was that sub-$6,000 levels were avoided, with Bitcoin also managing to avoid striking a new swing low, a comfort that many of the other major cryptos were unable to enjoy.

The broad based market sell-off has been particularly telling, with the total cryptomarket cap sliding from $300bn levels to sub-$220bn levels before support kicked in, Bitcoin’s market cap pulling back to a Wednesday low $107.08bn.

On the news wires, there was nothing new to drive the market into a selling frenzy for a 2nd consecutive day, the speculative nature of cryptocurrency investors driving the sell-off and ultimately demonstrating why there is a growing need for an influx of institutional money by way of Bitcoin ETFs.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up 0.37% to $6,303.7, with the range bound end of the day on Wednesday continuing into the early hours of this morning.

Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/cryptocurrency-news

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GOLD PRICE CHART HINTS AT BOTTOMING AFTER US 10-YEAR BOND AUCTION

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices rise as US bond yields, Dollar fall after record debt sale
Crude oil prices drop, talked down by officials from China and Iran
Chart setups hint gold may be set to bounce as crude oil suffers losses
Gold prices rose yesterday as the US Dollar retreated alongside Treasury bond yields after hitting a 13-month high intraday. That helped the yellow metal leverage its appeal as an anti-fiat and non-interest bearing alternative. The move came after demand held impressively steady despite a record-setting offering of $26 billion in 10-year notes.

The bid-to-cover ratio registered at 2.55, only a hair lower than the 2.57 reading recorded at the prior sale of comparable paper. Investors seemed to interpret the outcome to mean that the oncoming flood of new issuance needed to finance the widening budget deficit will find healthy take-up. That sent US debt prices higher, trimming baseline borrowing costs.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices edged above trend line resistance set from mid-June, hinting an upswing may be in the works. The appearance of a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and positive RSI divergence reinforce the case for a rebound. A break above range floor support-turned-resistance at 1221.25 opens the door for a test of the 1236.6-40.86 area. Immediate support is at 1204.59, the August 3 low.

Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news

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AUD/USD FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – TREND DOWN, BUT RIPE FOR COUNTER-TREND REVERSAL

Since today’s session begins with the AUD/USD in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom, the key level to watch today will be yesterday’s close at .7272. We’re looking at three possible scenarios: Rally, Break or Closing Price Reversal Bottom.

The Australian Dollar is trading slightly higher early Tuesday, but inside yesterday’s range. This tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. We’re probably looking at some short-covering amid easing tensions in Turkey. Traders are also digesting the series of weaker-than-expected economic reports from China.

At 0404 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .7277, up 0.0004 or +0.07%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through .7256 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The Aussie is in no position to change the trend to up, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, it is in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This chart pattern will indicate the buying is greater than the selling, at least temporarily. This could lead to a 2 to 3 day correction.

A short-term range may be forming between .7453 and .7256. Its retracement zone at .7354 to .7378 is a potential upside target. Since the trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on a test of this zone.

The longer-term target is the December 23, 2016 main bottom at .7159.

Read more:http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-forecast

 

 

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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Daily Forex News by XtreamForex.com

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