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Date : 12th November 2020.

FX Update – November 12 – Sterling Pressured, JPY in Demand

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GBPJPY, H1
Some reversal in recent positioning themes has been seen, with the dollar bloc and Pound softening against the Dollar, and the Yen outperforming moderately. This dynamic has been concomitant with global stock markets, outside the case of Japan, flagging. A fall in Chinese tech stocks, sparked by Beijing regulators launching an antitrust investigation, led a broader paring of recent gains in equity markets, which surged over the last week. Some caution had already been creeping back into markets, at least enough to deter investors from entering new positions at the recently heightened levels. The raised level of optimism for a Covid-19 vaccine assisted return to normality remains intact, though there is some way to go and there are known unknowns, including long-term vaccine efficacy and population-wide safety issues. There also appears to be some disquiet about Trump’s refusal to accept the election results, especially with his move to fire his defence secretary, which some fear means that he will try to stay in office. Unnamed Trump aides cited by the Washington Post, however, say that he has no real plan to overturn the results. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gets a special mention for bucking the trend in rallying to a fresh 29-year high.

In currencies, EURUSD has been trading neutrally in the mid-to-upper 1.1700s. The pair completed a more-than 50% retrace of the outsized gain the pair saw last week and through to Monday, which left a two-month peak at 1.1920. USDJPY has ebbed moderately, to the lower 105.00s. The Pound has come under some moderate pressure, correcting recent gains. There is still no breakthrough in EU-UK trade talks. Sources cited by Reuters yesterday reported that the ‘final-final’ deadline is the end of next week, (November 20) so the clock is ticking. The general expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal. Media networks, meanwhile, are increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts of the UK leaving the single market and customs union, which will happen in just seven weeks’ time. Today’s UK GDP data, although a Q3 record at 15.5%, showed further weakness during September and was 3 ticks below expectations of 15.8%. The current data shows the UK economy is -9.7% smaller than it was at the end of Q4 2019.

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Technically, GBPJPY rejected 140.00 yesterday, moving under the 20-Hour moving average into the close. Today the pair have moved under 139.00 and tested S2 at 138.70, and R3 is at 138.05. The fast MAs are aligned and trending lower, RSI is 36 and falling, the MACD histogram & signal line are also aligned lower and breached 0 line this morning. Stochastics have moved into the oversold zone but remain weak. The H1 ATR is 0.1630, and the Daily ATR is 1.3000.

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Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar dropped back after a short-lived rally following remarks by RBNZ’s Hawkesby, who said that while negative interest rates remain an option, less monetary stimulus now appears necessary than previously thought, which essentially repeated the signalling from the central bank yesterday in the wake of its policy review. NZDUSD printed a 20-month high at 0.6914 before retreating to the mid 0.6800s.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 13th November 2020.

A risk-back-on theme has emerged

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The Pound was showing a 0.5% gain on the US Dollar as of the late London morning, and the UK currency was also making gains versus the Euro, Yen and other currencies. Several factors appear to be at play. One is the rebound in equity markets, which, if view edas a revival of the Covid vaccine rally, is a positive for the Pound, with the UK having large pre-orders of the Pfizer candidate vaccine.

The European bourses have recovered and are mostly in the green, albeit slightly having pared gains, with the GER30 up about 0.1%, though the UK100 is -0.6% lower. European stock indices are racking up gains of over 0.5% and USA500 futures are up by nearly 1%, nearly reversing all of the closing losses that the cash version of the index saw on Wall Street yesterday. The UK saw the biggest peak to trough drop in its GDP this year out of the G20 economies, so it may benefit most in the route out of the crisis.

Another consideration is the political developments on Downing Street, with the departure of the government’s director of communications, and news that Dominic Cummings will leave his advisory role by Christmas, being read as a weakening in the influence of the ‘Vote Leave’ campaigners, meaning there could be a softer, more pragmatic attitude to Brexit, although it is not yet clear what shape the new administration set-up will take. As for the ongoing negotiations, there is still no breakthrough with only about a week to go to the ‘final final’ deadline.

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Evidently, given the Pound’s performance, the prevailing market expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal, which is what is anticipated. Both sides will have to make concessions if a deal is to be achieved. All things Brexit go down to the wire, and neither side has been willing, as yet, to make the first move in the concession game. Too much is at stake for both sides, surely, for there to be a failure in statesmanship. It should also be clear that the UK government has the option of exiting the common market in close alignment to EU rules and then diverging in an evolving process over time. The promise of future divergence would serve to mollify the powerful faction of Brexit ideologues.

There is also the possibility of there being a ‘technical delay’, though the political mood seems set against this. UK media, meanwhile, have been increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts to cross border trade that are likely to be seen when the UK leaves the single market and customs union in just seven weeks’ time.

Cable posted a high at 1.3185, which recouped nearly two thirds of yesterday’s decline, while EURGBP dropped to levels under 0.9002, correcting from yesterday’s high.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Technical Analysis on EUR USD or GBP USD

EUR/USD Pair Seems Upside Breakout Backs to Head and Shoulder Pattern

The EUR/USD pair seems to the front foot to the near at the level 1.1850 to the starting of the week to extending the third straight on Monday.

The Bullish is a crossover to the 50 hourly moving average that cutting to the level 100HMA that add below to the bullish move.

US-China trade war acceleration through the Trump organization's 'intermediary' period before group Biden takes over in late January may be another headwind. The active President moved to boycott US interest in Chinese military-connected firms. Beijing typically shuddered for all to hear. Another round of blow for blow countermeasures may follow. Taking all things together, this implies that the Greenback may yet recover a sanctuary offers.

In front of the 1.1900 level, the bulls are probably going to confront hardened opposition at 1.1860, November 5 high.

The conjunction of the 200-HMA and example neck area at the level by 1.1800 is the level to beat for the bears.

GBP/USD Scales Drops the Fib Hurdle Level to the 61.8%

GBP/USD is right now trading at the level 1.3217, speaking to a 0.20% increase on the day, having finished a week ago above 1.2174 the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the auction from the Aug. 31 high of 1.3483 to Sept. 23 low of 1.2675.

The break over the Fibonacci obstacle is generally viewed as bullish. For this situation, notwithstanding, the most recent week's high of 1.3313 is the level to beat for the bulls. A move above 1.3313 would refute purchaser weariness motioned by the long upper wick appended to the earlier week's light and open the entryways to the level 1.3483.

Then again, a move below the Asian meeting low of level 1.3174 would approve the buyer’s weakness monitored by the week by week light and move risk for a drop to 1.3108 (5-week basic moving averages)

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Technical Analysis on XAU/USD or XAG/USD

XAU/USD is Testing the Critical Support at the $1860

The Technical Confluences Indicator shows that the XAU/USD pair is shielding the solid at the level $1877 uphold, which is the assembly of the earlier day low, Fibonacci 23.6% one-week and one-month.

Acknowledgment below the latter is probably going to trigger a sharp drop towards a minor cap adjusted at $1868, the turning point one-day S2.

The following basic help of the earlier month low of the level $1860 will be on the trader’s radars. On the other side, gold is probably going to confront a group of obstruction levels in the event that it recovers some ground towards the applicable potential gain obstacle at $1888, which is the convergence of the SMA50 one-hour and Fibonacci 38.2% one-month.

Further north, the rotate point one-day R1 at the level  $1891 will challenge the upward journey.

Nonetheless, $1894 will be a difficult one to figure out for the bulls, as it is the conjunction of the earlier day high, SMA100 four-hour and Fibonacci 38.2% one-week.

XAG/USD Seems Seller Below at the level $24.40

Silver wobbles around to the level of $24.50 in the midst of Wednesday's Asian meeting. In doing such, the white metal keeps the most recent trading range somewhere in the range of $24.45 and $24.52. The bullion prior ricocheted off an intersection of 21-day and 100-day SMA combined with an upward slanting pattern line from October 29.

Thus, intraday buyers may focus on the $25.00 limit in front of testing the expressed opposition line close to $25.65. Likewise prone to challenge the silver bulls is the month to month pinnacle of $26.00.

Unexpectedly, a drawback break of $24.40 can rapidly drag the statement towards November 09 low close of $23.55 prior to coordinating silver traders toward the month to month low around $23.20 and the $23.00 round-figure.

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Technical Analysis on EUR USD or S&P 500

EUR/USD Pair Breaks the Monthly to Direct Risk Bears at Level 1.1800

EUR/USD pair was consolidated near at the day low currently down at the level 0.13% on the day to 1.1840 on this early Thursday. The pair will be traced to the break on the upward to the sloping trend line.

The RSI condition of the pair will be clear the break to the previous support line and the EUR/USD is the eye at the level by 1.1788 during the further declines. 

For a situation where the danger off encourages the US dollar to invert the month to month misfortunes, the mid-October low close to 1.1690 and the month to month base encompassing 1.1600 could pick up the market's consideration.

On the other hand, a potential gain break of the help transformed into-opposition, at 1.1883 now, will be examined by the 1.1900 round-figure.

It should likewise be noticed that the even territory around 1.1920-25, involving highs set apart on September 10 thus far in November, turns into a difficult one to figure out for the EUR/USD buyers past-1.1900.

S&P 500 Price Seems the Bulls to Steam Below Time Highs 

The S&P 500 Index is attempting to persuade on the potential gain as it runs out of force. Coming up next is a top-down examination of potential liquidity zones on the drawback should the market move into appropriation.

The week after week graph shows that the neck area of the W-development meets the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the week by week bullish motivation leg.  

The four-hour chart shows that there is a conversion of a half mean inversion and earlier obstruction structure that would be relied upon to go about as help, in the region of the 21-hour moving normally.

While exchanging is responsive, not cautious, it does no wrong in having some foreknowledge and being ready for expected value activity.

In the accompanying investigation, the hourly conditions are less bullish with the value now underneath the 21-hour moving normal and testing the main layer of basic help.

A tear here will open possibilities for the drawback focusing on a tear of Tuesday's low to open a race to Friday's old record closing highs.

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Technical Analysis on EUR USD or AUD USD

EUR/USD Pair Shows the Bids to Triangle Around 1.1800

The EUR/USD pair rose to the level by 1.1860 on this Monday Session due to this major currency pairs trades inside the symmetrical triangle to the upside momentum to the 200 SMA.

The RSI conditions do not seem as overbought and oversold to the continuation of the recovery of the moves that can be expected. 

EUR/USD buyers right now eye the support line of the expressed triangle, at 1.1881 now, while focusing to invigorate the month to month top containing 1.1920.

In the pattern, the example's support line at the level by 1.1835 now, goes before a 200-bar SMA level of 1.1789 to test the momentary drawback. Additionally going about as support is the November 04 high of the level by 1.1770.

AUD/USD Pair Trapped to the Ascending Triangle

AUD/USD is currently trading at the level above 0.7310, speaking to a 0.16% addition on the day.

While the pair is blazing green, it is yet to leave a fourteen-day climbing triangle, as observed on the 4-hour outline. All things considered, the quick inclination stays equal.  

A break over the upper finish of the triangle, as of now at the level 0.7340, would infer a continuation of the convention from the Nov. 2 low of 0.6991 and open the entryways for 0.7413 (Sept. 1 high).

Then again, a triangle breakdown would infer a transient bearish inversion and move risk for a drop to 0.6991.  

A bullish breakout takes a look at press time, as the value markets are cheering possibilities of an early rollout of Covid antibodies in the US.

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Technical Analysis on Gold & Silver 

Gold Price Risks to Falling to 200 day Level

The Gold Price is going under the long-held support because the gold now risks falling to the 200- day Simple Moving Average. The breakdown is sponsored by an underneath 50 or bearish perusing on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) and a negative MACD histogram. The 5-and 10-day SMAs are moving south, demonstrating a bearish arrangement, as is the bearish hybrid of the 50-and 100-day SMAs.

The yellow metal closed below $1,850 on Monday, disregarding the level, which went about as a solid floor on various occasions since September.

Thusly, the drawn-out SMA of the level by $1,796 could before long become possibly the most important factor. The yellow metal is right now trading at a four-month low of $1,824 per ounce, speaking to a level 0.68% drop on the day.

XAG/USD Price Cling to the 100 Day EMA to Three Week Low

Silver costs backtrack misfortunes from the multi-day low at the level of $23.42 while taking rounds to the level of $23.60 during the early Tuesday's Asian meeting. The white metal dropped to the most minimal since November 04 in the wake of denoting various pullbacks from 50-day EMA protections during the most recent four days.

Not just the ware's powerlessness to cross the key EMA, yet MACD conditions additionally favor the silver bears to eye a rising pattern line from September 24, at the level $23.23 now. However, a continued drawback break below the 100-day EMA level of $23.60 gets vital for that.

For a situation where the bullion remains frail past-$23.23, the 23.00 and the 22.00 round-figures can offer middle of the road stops to the drawback focusing on 200-day EMA and September's base, separately around $21.75 and $21.65.

Then again, a corrective pullback needs to defeat the 50-day EMA level of $24.35 to test the mid-month top near $25.10.

Nonetheless, any further potential gain past-$25.10 will help the silver bulls with testing the month-to-month top close $25.85.

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Date : 24th November 2020.

Macro Events & News – November 24 2020

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Market News Today

USD recovered after better than expected PMI’s. – Earlier AstraZeneca vaccine hopes lifted stocks, EZ PMIs worse than expected, UK’s better than expected but both poor. Trump acknowledged that Biden transition should start – Equities rallied further (Nikkei back and up 2.5%) & riskier currencies gained a bid. Biden to name Yellen as Treasury Secretary & Kerry as Climate Tsar. In total a triple whammy for sentiment and risk appetite. USOil followed stocks higher and Gold trades $50 lower than Friday’s close. German GDP revised higher to 8.5% in final reading, from 8.2%.

Shortened Thanksgiving Week Ahead – Highlights – FOMC mins – more significance, after Mnuchin removed emergency funding – possibility of action at their Dec. meeting. Plus – Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods & GDP

USDIndex – Sank to support at 92.00 yesterday  rallied to 92.70, post PMI’s. back under PP now at 92.35. S1 92.10, R1 92.90.

EUR – Rejected 1.1900 & tested down to 1.1800, again yesterday. Now 1.1855 (PP) JPY – down to 103.67 lows yesterday. Rallied to 104.60, now back to 104.40. PP 104.25.

GBP – rallied to a smidge shy of 1.3400, & down to 1.3262. Back to 1.3340 (PP)now all in anticipation of EU-UK Trade announcement this week?

AUD  0.7340 – 0.7270 range yesterday. Trades at 0.7320 now (R1), PP 0.7295 NZD – down to test 0.6900 yesterday, another good Asian session for king Kiwi, back to test R2 0.6990 earlier, now at 0.6975.

CAD – Back to 1.3040 (S1) ; R1 & 200Ma cap at 1.3090, S2 1.3015 CHF  0.9075 lows to 0.9150 yesterday. Back to PP and 200Ma now 0.9115, s1 0.9093

BTC – Holds bid at $18,400 (PP). Tested to 18k low yesterday.

GOLD – Collapsed 3% from 1876 to test S1 at 1820 earlier – now 1830 – PP 1850 USOil – Rallied over R1 to $43.70. Vaccine hopes & OPEC+ production cut noises continue to support prices. R2 today 43.90. Private inventories later, official EIA data tomorrow.

USA500 – Closed +20 (+0.56%) 3577 – USA500 FUTS now at 3605.

Today – German IFO, US Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Haskel, Fed’s Bullard, Williams, ECB’s Schnabel, Lagarde, Lane,

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.79%) –. Holds rally from yesterdays sub 72.00 open, ran to test R3 at 73.05 earlier. Fast MA’s aligned higher but cooling at R2, RSI 68 moving below OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher, breached 0-line last week. Stochs. lowering from OB H1 ATR 0.2565 Daily ATR 0.7411.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 25th November 2020.

Caution and profit taking has crept into the market

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US equity futures are mixed with modest moves as caution and profit taking has crept into the market following yesterday’s risk on rally. Wall Street surged with gains of over 1.5% on the broader indexes as strong efficacy rates on three vaccine candidates continued to brighten outlooks and increase the potential for a return to normalcy sooner than later. However as the overall outlook remains positive for US futures there seems to be limited appetite to push valuations out further for now, as much of next year’s (expected) recovery is already priced in, while virus developments spell further restrictions for the weeks and likely months ahead.

Expectations that Janet Yellen would be named as Treasury Secretary under a Biden administration was a relief as she’s a known quantity and would likely support hefty stimulus. Treasuries sagged, not surprisingly, on the strength in risk appetite and amid a heavy supply slate this week.

Today features a heavy dose of data ahead of the market closure on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, which could make for choppy action. Of note, Q3 after tax corporate profits came in at a record 27.5% pace, from -10.7% in Q2. The USA30 is off -0.2% but sustained close to 30K area while the USA500 mini has slipped -0.06%. The USA100 mini is 0.3% firmer after underperforming the rally yesterday that saw the USA30 close above 30k for the first time ever.

GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.1%, and up 0.3% respectively. Governments across Europe are pondering how and if to ease lockdowns over the festive period while the WHO has already warned of a third wave in the winter.

Yields have dipped modestly after disappointing jobless claims data and as stock futures give back some of yesterday’s historic gains. US Advance goods trade deficit widened to -$80.3 bln in October after the unexpected narrowing to -$79.4 bln in September. Advance durable goods orders rose 1.3% in October after climbing 2.1% (was 1.9%) in September. This is a sixth straight monthly gain as orders recover from the pandemic plunge in the spring that saw an -18.3% drop in April, just short of the weakest on record of -18.8% from August 2014. US initial jobless claims rose 30k to 778k in the week ended November 21 after claims gained 37k to 748k (was 742k) in the November 14 week. It is the strongest reading for initial claims in five weeks, as the surge in Covid infections and the consequent increase in restrictions on activity has weighed on the job market. Last the US Q3 GDP growth was left unrevised at 33.1% from the Advance report. Growth has bounced back at an historic pace after cratering at a record -31.4% rate in Q2.

The belly of the curve is outperforming with yields down over 1 bp as the market digests this week’s record supply. The 5-year is at 0.385%, with the 7-year at 0.634%. The 10-year has richened 1 bp to 0.870%, and the bond is flat at 1.60%. The 5s-30s bull steepened to 121.5 bps from 120.8 bps yesterday and 116.7 bps Monday. Bonds should find support from worries over spiking virus cases and more strict lockdowns, along with month-end where Barclays forecasts a 0.16-year extension, the most since 2009.

Attention remains on vaccines and the virus. Additionally, Brexit warnings and comments from central banks suggesting caution on additional rate cuts added to pressures on equities. ECB officials continue to flag the extension of PEPP. Mersch, however, signaled he is not looking to cut the deposit rate further.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Technical Analysis on EUR USD or GBP USD

EUR/USD Pair Seems Bulls And Keep Gain At Level 1.1920

The EUR/USD is currently traded at the level near 1.1928  to the highest level. The pair will need to establish the horizontal resistance at the level by 1.1920.

The Bullish will see on the viewpoint to the descending triangle breakdown that confirmed the earlier month also open the doors to re-test of the 1.2011. An inability to hold above 1.1920 could yield a pullback to the climbing 10-day Simple Moving Average, at present at 1.1870. The pair timed a high of 1.1928 on Wednesday yet shut under 1.1920.

GBP/USD Pair Goes Weekly Highs Under Level by 1.3400

On Wednesday, GBP/USD fell as low as 1.3310 during the European morning meeting, yet through the European evening and US morning ground back towards highs set on Monday of just below at the level 1.3400. As exchange settles down for what is probably going to be a tranquil Thursday Asia meeting in front of slender US Thanksgiving occasion trade for the remainder of the week, the pair has moved back to around 1.3380.

On the off chance that Cable can break it above 1.3400, there isn't much by the method of critical zones of opposition in front of year-to-date highs at 1.3485, level bulls are probably going to weapon for in the event of a definitive potential gain break (maybe prodded by the information on a Brexit bargain being reached).

In the bearish situation, the main territory of help is probably going to come around 1.3350 as an upturn connecting last Thursday's, Monday's, and Tuesday's lows. Past that, Wednesday's low at 1.3304, Tuesday's low at the level 1.3293, and Monday's low at 1.3262 are the following help zones to keep an eye out for.

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Date : 26th November 2020.

Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!

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The USD has remained soft in quiet conditions, while global asset markets have seen little direction. The US Thanksgiving holiday has quelled activity. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded near flat. Most stock markets in Asia gained, though remained off recent highs. The MSCI World Index is also off its highs, but remained buoyant and on course for a record monthly increase this month. Copper posted a new near 7-year high, and while other base metal prices were also underpinned most remained off recent trend highs. Oil prices saw modest declines after recent gains, which culminated in a nine-month high yesterday.

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The Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!

Sterling has seen limited direction, continuing to hold gains from month-ago levels of around 1.5% to 2.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is still no breakthrough in down-to-the-wire negotiations between the EU and UK, and there are lots of warnings of border chaos and, from external BoE MPC member Saunders, of long-lasting economic consequences in the event of a no deal exit from the common market.

European Commission president von der Leyen said “we are ready to be creative” to get a deal while repeating that “we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market.” An Irish government member said that a deal was “imperative” for everyone.

The steadiness in the Pound, the principal conduit of financial market Brexit sentiment, reveals that investors remain unperturbed. One explanation is the real money participants are sitting on their collective hands, positioning for an expected deal but waiting on concrete developments and details, while maintaining vigilance on the possibility of there being a no deal by accident.

Short-term speculative participants, meanwhile, don’t seem to have had a fruitful time in trying to play the fatiguing myriad news headlines and endless deadlines that have come and gone. The latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday — December 1 — which leaves just one month for a deal to be ratified on both sides of the Channel. We expect to a deal to materialize at the last minute, just as the withdrawal agreement was seemingly pulled out of the hat at the ultimate minute a year ago. There may even be a fudged extension.

Pressure on the UK government is intense. US president-elect Biden warned London that the scope for a deal with the US would be compromised if there is a return of a hard border on Ireland — which is what could happen in a no-deal scenario (the UK government would have the choice between maintaining a free-flowing border on Ireland at the price of breaking up the border integrity of the UK, and possible protests and even violence from loyalists, or breaking the EU withdrawal agreement, which would result in a hard Irish land border).

A leaked Whitehall document warns of a “perfect storm” of chaos in the event of a no-deal in the Covid-19 era. There are also pressures on the other side of the Channel to reach an accord. While French President Macron has political incentive to put up a show of fighting over fishing rights, he is not likely to carry through on his threat to veto any deal as other key EU states don’t see the UK’s position on fishing as being unreasonable. France and other nations, and the UK, also need to maintain good relations for security and many other practical reasons.

As for the market impact of a deal, much will depend on how narrow the deal is. The narrower it is, the bigger the negative impact on both the UK and EU’s terms of trade positions will be on January 1, particularly the UK’s.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Technical Analysis on EUR USD or GBP USD

EUR/USD Pair Seems High In the Key Resistance

EUR/USD is currently traded at the level 1.1914 that created the indecisive Doji Candle on this Thursday. The Doji Candle shows the upper wicks with the small body in the market place which creates the Doji to the immediate bullish to set up the Friday Close pivot.

The Candle is Seems high at the 1.1914 that would see the indecision that ended to the bull victory near the level by 1.18.

The Pair will see the level under the 1.1885 that confirms the Bearish Doji Reversal Pattern that exposes some of the deeper support levels.

GBP/USD Pair Test the 1.3400 to Remains on the Cards

The GBP/USD pairs will hold the ground higher at the European open that seems at the level 1.3400 on the technical board that is based on the US Dollar weakness.

If we see the technical part the technical perspective that consolidating the upside the breakout to the bulls shows the 15 Minutes Chart that is measured on the target of the aligned at the level 1.3396.

The RSI Index is turned on the south trades that seems above at the level by 50.00 that suggesting the bias upside.

The Immediate support is at the level of 1.3367 that sees the limit of the retracement to the bullish formation. The next support is then seen at the horizontal 200-SMA at 1.3363. The psychological level of 1.3350 could challenge the bears’ commitment.

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Date : 27th November 2020.

FX Update – November 27 – Sterling in Focus

[IMG]
GBPUSD, H1
Narrow ranges have been prevailing in risk-cautious trading. The USDIndex settled around the 92.00 level, above yesterday’s 12-week low at 91.84. EURUSD remained buoyant but off from the 12-day peak seen yesterday at 1.1942. Cable also held within its Thursday range. USDJPY ebbed to a four-day low at 103.91. The Yen was concurrently steady versus the Euro and the Pound, but posted respective two- and four-day lows against the Australian and Canadian Dollars. AUDUSD ticked fractionally higher, which was still sufficient to lift the pair into 12-week high terrain above 0.7380. NZDUSD posted a new 29-month peak at 0.7030. USDCAD remained heavy but just above recent 17-day lows. Bitcoin, which performed strongly this year on the back of dollar liquidity, found a toehold, but remained over 12% down on its recent highs.

[IMG]

US markets will reopen after yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, but market conditions will remain on the thin side. President Trump said that he will leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for Biden, which may be as close to formally conceding the election as he will go. A sharp focus remains on EU and UK talks, with a face-to-face round reportedly taking place in London over the weekend. There are now reports that the EU parliament might convene as late as December 28 to ratify a deal, if necessary.

The spectre of a no-deal hangs over proceedings, though the consensus, as judged by the ongoing stability of the Pound, remains for a narrow deal to be reached.

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 30th November 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


[IMG]

Europe and US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions.still leaves central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front leaves investors looking ahead to the recovery. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, Brexit as the latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday, OPEC+ group which will also decide on extending prevailing quota restrictions next Tuesday, and on the Non-Farm Payroll outcome.

Monday – 30 November 2020
 

  • Eurogroup Meeting
  • Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slowdown to 52.1 from 56.2 in October.
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for November is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.5% y/y.
  • Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Pending home sales experienced a minor decline at -2.2% in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth/ For October we could further decline to -2.6%.

Tuesday – 01 December 2020
 

  • RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In the last meeting, RBA stepped up stimulus to ensure recovery by announcing a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. RBA’s Lowe also stated that he sees no appetite to go into negative rates. The central bank head send a pretty clear signal that the focus now has shifted to asset purchases, with no appetite at the central bank to move into negative rate territory.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Preliminary November inflation expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% y/y in the final reading for September, unchanged from the preliminary release. Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for the Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to 38.7% last month.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks.
  • Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00)

Wednesday – 02 December 2020
 

  • RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00)
  • Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y.
  • Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September.
  • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October.

Thursday – 03 December 2020
 

  • Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y.
  • Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but different sales season amid the pandemic distort the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month.
  • ISM Service PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Service PMI is seen at 56.4.

Friday – 04 December 2020
 

  • Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss.
  • Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall.
  • Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight deduction in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6 in October for employment, to 100k.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Fundamental Analysis Of the Week

Watch This Major Financial Market Events to Start Your Week

COVID-19 Vaccine Timing

To start the fresh week watch out the News this month of three promising coronavirus vaccine candidates has helped propel the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 30,000 and investors will be closely following plans for the initial rollout to the Market Movements.

U.S. health officials are to hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to recommend that the Food and Drug Administration allow healthcare professionals and people in long-term care facilities to be the first two groups to get a coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and a German partner BioNTech, which is awaiting approval.

The decision of the meeting indicates that the FDA may be close to authorizing the distribution of the vaccine, at least for the most at-risk groups.

The United States recorded its 12 millionth COVID-19 case on Nov. 21, and health experts have warned that travel for the Thanksgiving holiday will likely push case counts sharply higher.

Nonfarm payrolls

Concerns that the steeply increasing numbers of new virus cases and more widespread containment measures have been undermining the recovery in the labor market mean that Friday’s November nonfarm payroll figures will be closely watched.

The report is expected to show a seventh straight month of job gains, but the consensus forecast that only 500,000 jobs were added. The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 6.8% from 6.9%, still well above the 4.5% rate in March, before much of the U.S. economy went into lockdown.

The economy added 638,000 new jobs in October, which was the smallest gain since the jobs recovery started in May.

The calendar also features the ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI along with the weekly report on initial jobless claims on Thursday.

Jerome Powell and Mnuchin Faceoff

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and again a day later before the House Financial Services Committee.

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Technical Analysis on Gold & Silver

Gold Price Rising Immediate to Wedge Probe to Bounce off At Level $1,764

The Gold picks the bids near at the level by $1,785 to the 0.50% intraday while heading to the European session. Moreover, the yellow metal dropped to the five-month low as compare to the previous bouncing off at the level by $1,764.60.

On the other hand, the RSI conditions have favored the bullion to the buyers on the recovery moves, The underlying bearish pattern to the rising wedge keeps the seller’s hope.  

Notwithstanding, the affirmation of the south-run need from the drawback break of rising wedge's help, at $1,780.70 now, prior to peering toward the most recent multi-month low close $1,764. It should likewise be noticed that May 2018 pinnacle encompassing $1,765 adds solidarity to the help in front of featuring the April 218 high of $1,747.82 

XAG/USD Drangs to Doji On Monday Above $22.00

Silver price is taken around at the level by $22.68 to the 0.12% intraday during this Tuesday Asian Session. The White Metal is dropped to the fresh low at the level to bouncing off to the $21.89.

With that, Monday's day by day flame ends up being a dragonfly Doji, bullish candle, which likewise gains uphold from an almost oversold RSI line, right now around 34.00.

Subsequently, the ware's further pullback towards the $23.00 edge can't be precluded. Notwithstanding, a 10-day SMA and a diving obstruction line from November 09, presently around $23.40, will confine the statement's further potential gain.

On the other side, the $22.00 round-figure and the ongoing low of around at the level by  $21.90 may engage the vendors in front of guiding them to September's low of $21.65.

Be that as it may, the metal's further shortcoming below $21.65 will make it powerless towards returning to the $20.00 mental magnet and February high close to $19.00.

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Technical Analysis on EUR USD or GBP USD

EUR/USD Pair Is Corrective Pullback to Overbought RSI Warrant

The EUR/USD pair will extend the bullish momentum to the third session that following the big breakout above at the level by the 1.2000 to the Witnessed to the last Tuesday.

The Spot that confirmed the five-month-long rectangle to the formation on the daily chart that opening the doors that measured the target near at the level by the 1.2400 level.

The pair trades shows above the major daily moving average that suggesting the least resistance to the upside. It is the relevant upside to the target at the level of 1.2150.

To the drawback, a quick pad anticipates at the round number of 1.2100, below which Wednesday's low of 1.2040 could become possibly the most important factor.

Further south, the example obstruction currently upholds at the level 1.2000 could help slow down the amendment in the primary currency pair.

GBP/USD Pair Sidelined Near At the Level 1.3370 Bulls To See Progress

GBP/USD is trading generally unaltered on the day close to the level 1.3370 during Thursday's Asian trading hours, with indications of buyers depletion on specialized charts.

The long upper wicks joined to the past two 4-hour candles show bull disappointment or weariness in the level at 1.3370-neighborhood. At the end of the day, the bob from the Dec. 2 low of level 1.3288 is running out of steam.

Accordingly, the bulls need snappy GBP/USD is trading generally unaltered on the day close to 1.3370 during Thursday's Asian trading hours, with indications of purchaser weariness on technical patterns.

The long upper wicks joined to the past two 4-hour candles show bull disappointment or weariness in the 1.3370-neighborhood. At the end of the day, the skip from the Dec. 2 low of 1.3288 is running out of steam.

All things considered, the bulls need brisk advancement above 1.34; else, the pair hazards tumbling to its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) uphold at 1.3353. An infringement there would uncover the 100-day SMA situated at 1.3288. ogress above 1.34; else, the pair hazards tumbling to its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) uphold at 1.3353. An infringement there would uncover the 100-day SMA situated at 1.3288.

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Date : 8th December 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


[IMG]
This will be a week of increased attention to the central banks with ECB and BoC on tap. The markets also remain focused on positive vaccine development and growing hopes for more fiscal stimulus before year end. Nevertheless, for Europe, a deal between the EU and UK is “imminent”, expected before the end of the weekend, according to an EU source cited by Reuters.

Monday – 07 December 2020
 

  • Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Gross Domestic Product should advance in Q3 and reveal headline growth of 21.5% y/y and 5% q/q, with external demand, capital expenditure and private consumption rising.

Tuesday – 08 December 2020
 

  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German December ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 35 compared to 39 in November.
  • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Gross Domestic Product is seen stable at 12.6% growth in Q3 after the German Q3 GDP growth, released November 24, which was revised up to 8.5% (q/q, sa) in the final reading, from the 8.2% reported initially. It was an impressive bounce back from Q2’s -9.8% plunge, but the performance was not sufficient to compensate for the contraction that was triggered by lockdowns earlier in the year.

Wednesday – 09 December 2020
 

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery appears to be broadening, as a key manufacturing sentiment measure improved to its best level in three years during November while a non-manufacturing sentiment measure saw its best reading in eight years during November. CPI is expected to accelerate to a 0.8% y/y pace in November following the 0.5% growth last month.
  • Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The reports so far are consistent with the ongoing recovery in Canada’s economy since the spring shutdown. Of course, the gain in November employment was the smallest monthly increase since hiring resumed in May, reflecting well anticipated moderation to a more sustainable pace as the reopening pop faded. However, the jobs and trade reports are consistent with no change in the BoC’s 0.25% rate setting expected at next week’s announcement, alongside a reiteration of the pledge to hold rates at 0.25% into 2023.

Thursday – 10 December 2020
 

  • European Council Meeting
  • Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45-13:30) – The European Central Bank (ECB) remains on course to ease policy further in December, with officials highlighting that despite positive vaccine developments, the recovery will need ongoing monetary and in particular fiscal support through 2021. Comments confirm that the ECB remains on course to extend stimulus at the December 10th meeting with asset purchases and longer-term loans the central bank’s main weapons. The ECB is expected to strengthen PEPP, but could also boost regular asset purchase programs and improve TLTROs, although the final package will likely also depend on what happens on the virus front. Even in the best-case scenario, PEPP is still expected to be extended through next year, and Lagarde has made it clear that the ECB is firmly focused on helping governments to extend fiscal support by maintaining favorable financing conditions.
  • Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.1% November gain for the CPI headline and a 0.2% core price rise are anticipated, following flat rates for both in October. CPI gasoline prices look poised to fall -0.4% in November, leaving a headwind for the headline. As-expected November figures would result in a 1.1% headline y/y increase, following a 1.2% October rise. Core prices should show a 1.6% y/y rise, as seen in October. With average inflation targeting, the Fed will face no pressure to withdraw accommodation any time soon.

Friday – 11 December 2020
 

  • European Council Meeting – Day 2
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for July is anticipated to dip to -0.5% in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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