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On Monday the 13th of August, trading on the euro closed slightly up. Markets took a breather after a sharp drop which started on Friday due to increased tensions between The US and Turkey as well as the fact that Trump ordered the doubling of tariffs on Turkish metal.
The Turkish crisis first started affecting developing markets and has gone on from there to impact the developed world. The US dollar and Japanese yen have been the safe haven assets of choice. The EURUSD pair dropped to 1.1365. In Monday’s European session, the EURUSD rate rose to 1.1433.
Day’s news (GMT+3):
09:00 Germany: GDP (Q2), CPI (Jul). 09:45 France: CPI (Jul). 10:15 Switzerland: producer and import prices (Jul). 11:30 UK: claimant count change (Jul), ILO unemployment rate (Jun), average earnings (Jun). 12:00 Eurozone: GDP (Q2), industrial production (Jun), ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Aug). 12:00 Germany: ZEW survey – economic sentiment (Aug). 15:30 US: import price index (Jul). 23:30 US: API weekly crude oil stock.
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView.
Since the USDTRY pair is consolidating at around 6.90 USD, the EURUSD pair recovered from the 225thdegree to 1.1433 as part of a correction. The rate returned to the LB balance line (sma 55). While the market is currently in equilibrium, prices may deviate from this line. The lira isn’t getting any stronger, so the correction could come to an end as the European session gets underway. Stay alert.
Trading on the dollar is mixed in today’s Asian session. The euro crosses are in negative territory. Considering that an important support has been broken on the weekly timeframe, after a pullback, the first target levels for sellers will be 1.1380 (45 degrees) and 1.1351 (67 degrees).
At 12:00, Eurozone GDP and industrial production figures will be released. At the same time, a ZEW survey on economic sentiment for both Germany and the Eurozone will be published. These are important indicators, so expect a surge in volatility around this time on all pairs involving the euro. If volatility does rise, this should last for about 30 – 40 minutes.
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On Friday the 3rd of August, trading on the euro closed down. High volatility was observed in light of the publication of the the US labour market report.
July data on the number of those employed in the non-agricultural sector of the US did not meet market expectations. Although the data was below 189 thousand, the report is not bad, as the average hourly salary has grown and the indicators for May and June have been revised upwards. US 10-year bond yields fell on news of the report, with many major currencies closing in positive territory on Friday as a result.
As a result of last week, major currencies closed in the red zone against USD. The greatest decline was shown by the British pound (-0.84%). Then came the euro (-0.75%), the New Zealand dollar (-0.68%), the Japanese yen (-0.23%), the Australian dollar (-0.03%), and the Swiss franc (-0.02%). The Canadian dollar was the only currency to record growth (+0.55%).
The number of new jobs was 157 thousand (forecast: 189 thousand). May figures were revised from 244 thousand to 268 thousand, and in June - from 213 thousand to 248 thousand. The overall revision amounted to +59 thousand.
The unemployment level fell to 3.9% (previous: 4.0), which coincided with expectations.
The average hourly earnings index was 0.3% (forecast: 0.3%, previous: revised from 0.2% to 0.1%).
The ISM business activity index for the service sector for July was 55.7 (forecast: 59.0, previous: 59.1).
Day's news (GMT+3):
9:00 Germany: factory orders s.a. (MoM) (Jun). 11:30 Eurozone: Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug).
Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView
Friday's multidirectional fluctuations once again confirm that it's pointless to make market forecasts on payrolls day. The 157th degree acted as a support. The price bounced off that area three times and now sellers are trying to test it below 1.1550.
I see the pair is poised to rebound to 45 degrees (1.1558). The Stochastic Oscillator isn't favouring buyers at the moment, so it will only be safe to enter long positions if the trend line gets broken. The balance line (Lb) will act as an intermediate resistance. Now it is passing through 1.1600. The economic calendar is looking pretty scarce. There's nothing to stop buyers from inducing a correction.
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