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Main trading ideas on financial markets for 18.03.2019

 

The main newsmaker of the previous week was the British pound. There was a strong rise of the cable against major currencies on the Forex market. The British Parliament voted to rule out a “no deal” Brexit and requested to postpone the Brexit date beyond 29th March.

That’s why the weekly chart shows last week produced a relatively large, strongly bullish candlestick, which reached a new 9-month high, which is a bullish sign. This week is supposed to be volatile too because a lot of British news are expected including Bank of England interest rate decision and consumer price index. So, we will be waiting for the 1,34 as a minimum at the end of this week for GBPUSD pair.

GBPUSD price chart - 18.03.2019

In addition to the Brexit vote, this week will probably be dominated by the FOMC release and central bank input from the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England.

EUR/USD climbed close to 1.0% last week, recovering most of the losses sustained a week earlier. The key events this week are German ZEW Economic Sentiment and German and eurozone PMI. Investors will also be keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve rate statement.
From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair showed a shooting star pattern and we believe that the market is probably going to pull back towards the 1.1220 level before finding some buyers.

EURUSD price chart - 18.03.2019

The Australian economy is showing signs of weakness, with analysts expecting a rate cut from the RBA. If the RBA minutes would indicate to worrying on the policymakers, the Aussie could lose some points. Moreover, the AUD/USD has been still showing a head and shoulders pattern on the 4 hours chart that, in the medium-term, signals a bearish outlook. In that case, we are awaiting the AUDUSD pair about the 0,70 point

AUDUSD price chart - 18.03.2019

From another point of view, in general, GDP data which is published by the Statistics New Zealand may have a positive impact on the oceanic currencies. So, the experts have been waiting for a stronger release than a previous one was.

Our targets for:

GBPUSD – buying to 1,34
EURUSD – selling to 1,1220
AUDUSD – selling to 0,70 in a long term period

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gbpusd-h1-xm-global-limited-2.png

 

GBPUSD today, trend is bearish, so the best decide is to sell GBPUSD, Sell GBPUSD when it touch the resistance area at 1.31001 with potential target up to 1.29918

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The US Dollar took advantage of the weakness of the european currencies and showed a bullish dynamic on the last week despite the reducing of the construction industry in the USA. The EURUSD pair has dropped 155 points to 1.1216, while the GBPUSD pair fell for 178 points to 1.3031 since Monday.

EURUSD price chart - 01.04.2019

GBPUSD price chart - 01.04.2019

The Euro is under pressure due to the economic showdown in the european countries, as well as in Germany. Most of analytics expect a slow GDP growth in Germany, which will barely exceed 1%. The British Pound showed huge price range with other majors while the other votes in UK parliament didn’t bring up any clarity regarding the Brexit deal.

However, market participants have focused already on the macroeconomic statistics in Europe and USA, and the UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit during this week.

Today, the Retail sales ISM and Markit manufacturing PMI will be published in the US at 12:30 GMT. Also Markit Manufacturing PMI index was published in the european countries already. Still we expect volatility growth in the afternoon and rising of the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs.

On Tuesday, RBA (reserve bank of Australia) Interest rate decision will be announced at 3:30 GMT and Durable and Nondefense Capital goods in the USA at 12:30 GMT. The Aussi showed mixed dynamic against dollar last week. The AUDUSD pair had tested 0.7060 support level and rebounded from it.

Today’s gap was on the Aussi side. If RBA give us any hawkish hints tomorrow, we will open buy position from 0.71-0.7150 levels with Take Profit at 0.72.

AUDUSD price chart - 01.04.2019

On Wednesday, a lot of Markit Services indices will be published in the Eurozone and USA. Also analytics expect that ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US will be lower than in February (58.7 against 59.7). It is a bearish signal for the american currency. The positions of the US dollar could be
strengthened by the negotiations between China and the US in Washington on Wednesday.

On Thursday, the main data is expected in Canada. Ivey PMI index will be published at 14:00 GMT, also there will be EIA Natural Gas Storage Change info. We look forward growing of the US currency against Canadian dollar to 1.3450.

On Friday, Nonfarm payrolls data in the US, Unemployment rate in Canada will be published at 12:30 GMT. So, the main news of the week come on the last trading session. Potential reversal against the US dollar can be stopped due to the positive labor market data. However, we expect the rising of major pairs against the american currency.

So our targets for:
EURUSD – 1.1350
GBPUSD – 1.3180
AUDUSD – 0.72

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April Trade Ideas. Exoneration and inversion.

Author – Nick Korzhenevsky, senior analyst with AMarkets Company.
The anchorman of a TV program “Economics. Day rates”.

Summary:

   -   Treasury yield curve inverts for the first time since 2007 as 10-year yield drops below 3-month cash. The U.S. recession is set to arrive on a 12 to 18-month horizon. Global economy is slowing down as well.
   -   Markets are still in respite as central banks globally turn dovish. Risk is bid and volatility stays low. This is likely to change only in H2 2019.
   -   Robert Mueller has concluded the Trump-Russia investigation and has found no collusion. Trump is now clear to be elected for the second presidential term.
   -   The ECB’s TLTRO-III might not trigger balance sheet expansion, and, therefore, technically is not an act of easing.

March has proven a bag full of surprises, although some of them are quite nasty. First and foremost, the U.S. bond market sent the entire investment community a very clear message: a recession is coming. The yield curve has inverted, with 10 year yielding 2.42%, and the 3-month cash at 2.46% at the time of writing. The 4 b.p. gap is significant, as the median inversion since 1954 has been 35 b.p. (let alone the longer-term rates are normally significantly higher than the money market rates). The curve is now signaling a 60% chance of a recession in the U.S. starting over a 12-month horizon, and a 90% probability for the 2-year period. Our proprietary models show that a below-zero growth is likely to arrive in the 2nd half of 2020 (12 to 18 months from today).

Read more on our website www.amarkets.com

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Main trading ideas on financial markets for 08.04.2019

Spot gold closed the trading week near the 1295 area. The candles keep moving within the ascending channel. The triangle pattern is currently being formed. Moving averages indicate the bullish trend. We expect the price to make an attempt for growth and test the resistance in the 1310 range. After that, the decline with a potential target below the 1210 mark will resume.

Another scenario may occur if the price manages to breach the 1340 area. The breakout of this resistance level will be a signal for further GOLD growth. It will be possible if the CPI data, scheduled to be published on Wednesday, 10 April, come in more negative than the last time. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is seen as Bearish.

GOLD.png

Brexit talks and uncertainty continue with Friday’s news highlighted by the potential for a “flextension” to Brexit negotiations. Prime Minister Theresa May requested an extension to June 30, with the UK to nominate candidates for European elections if no deal has been reached by late May. The next discussion will take place during the EU summit on Wednesday, where policymakers will decide whether to accept May’s proposal.

The pair remains within a near-term bearish channel, indicating the medium-term bearish dominance. The breakout of 1.2975 support would take the price to a fresh six-week low and open the way for further decline towards 1.2900 or the February lows.

GBPUSD.png

So, the next important news – the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report- is scheduled to come in on Wednesday. It’s worth noting, that according to the Commitment of Traders Report Oil bulls have pushed their net-long exposure to their highest level since October 2018. Many experts have been waiting for oil stocks to be reduced. It means that WTI prices are very likely to demonstrate growth up to 65.

USOIL.png

From the technical point of view, it continues to move within a bullish correction. Moving averages indicate a bearish trend in general. In addition to this, the RSI indicator shows that the black gold is almost in the overbought zone that plays into the hands of sellers.

Our targets for:
GOLD – buy up to $1310
GBPUSD – sell down to 1.2975
WTI OIL – buy up to $65

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USDJPY today, the price is pulling up, it is good if we wait for the price to break resistance area, if the price break 108.066 you can start to buy it with potential target up to 108.437

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Close July in the green!
20bonus-amarekts.jpg

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USDCHF today, as we see here USD is still strong, it is better if you go long for this time. you can buy USDCHF at support area 0.98960 with potential target up to previous resistance at 0.99127

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AUDCAD today, as we see here, the price is still sideways, the best option for you is to sell it, so you can sell it when the price is bouncing at 0.89737 with potential target up to 0.89472

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