Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Bennie Carey

Alpari.com analysis EUR/USD

Recommended Posts

Still EURAUD market has the possibility to come down. So it is a strong opportunity to the sellers that support level is strong and according to the moving average and trend line it is blatant. So to the sellers the entry point will be at 1.4987 and the closing point will be at 1.4772.

 

euraud-h4-instaforex-group.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

euraud-h1-trading-point-of.png

 

This afternoon, I want to share my analysis about EURAUD

If you see here, EURAUD moving to break resistance, if it is valid, you can buy EURAUD and put take profit at 1.56353, if price going to 1.55553 you can sell it and put your take profit at next support 1.55123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to the RSI and trend line analysis right now the market has a great possibility to come down. And hopefully it will bring a better amount of profit to the sellers actually. To the sellers the entry point is at 0.8945 and the target point is at 0.8875.

 

eurgbp-h4-instaforex-group-2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On the basis of RSI, trend line and Bollinger bands we have strong sell signal as bearish has been dominating on market so the pressure is to the buyers indeed. So to the sellers the entry point is at 111.51 and the target point is at 105.75.

 

usdjpy-w1-instaforex-group.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

0.8844 is a strong support zone and hopefully market won’t cross the line so the market has the possibility to go at bull sight. The RSI is also showing this. To the buyers the entry point is at 0.8844 and the closing point is at 0.8954.

 

eurgbp-h4-instaforex-group.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EURUSD: buyers edging towards the 135th degree

On Wednesday the 6th of December, trading on the euro/dollar closed down. The greenback made gains against most of the majors after significant progress was made in Congress regarding tax reform. Senate Republicans have agreed to talks with the House of Representatives to discuss the new legislation. Markets expect the two houses to reconcile their respective versions of the bill in the coming days. Meanwhile, markets are also bracing themselves for Friday’s NFP report as well as the upcoming FOMC meeting to be held on the 13th of December.

eur_071217_5a28ef051f707.png

I didn’t make a forecast on Wednesday because, with the euro trading at 1.1845 forex ideas, the situation was ambiguous. As trading opened in Europe, the euro bounced off the previously broken trend line and recommenced its decline with renewed vigour.

The euro initially returned to the 112th degree at 1.1799 before moving towards the lower boundary of the A-A channel. Interestingly, the euro dropped at the same time as US bond yields. The pressure on the EURUSD pair came from the EURGBP cross.

In Asia, our pair is currently trading sideways while the euro crosses are rising. This suggests that the dollar is attacking on all fronts and euro sellers are preparing to hit a new daily low.

Given that a bullish divergence has formed between the AO indicator and the 1.1801 and 1.1781 lows, once the 1.1781 low is retaken, this will form a double bullish divergence; a technical sign of a rebound.

I’ve gone for a rebound at 1.1772 because the 1365th degree runs through this level. The area between the 112th and 135th degrees is, in my view, a reversal zone. From 1.1772, I’d like to see a three-wave formation aiming at 1.1709. Keep an eye on the euro/pound cross. A triangle is forming on the 4-hour timeframe. Exiting it downwards would speed up the euro’s decline against the US dollar. I wouldn’t recommend buying euro in anticipation of a rebound as the correction could go on for as long as 40 hours without a rise. Take note of when the price breaks through the TR3 line and what sort of trading volumes are present at the time. Source: https://alpari.com/en/analytics/reviews/market_sessions/23450_07122017/

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He gave them a forex signal service, from the technical point of view, the EUR/AUD pair is in an uptrend as you can see in daily chart, currently the pair is looking for the resistance located in the 1.5747 in the medium term, at this moment it is trading at 1.56754 so there is more than 100 pips of travel still 

EURAUDDaily712.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On Wednesday the 13th of December, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed 80 pips up. The single currency initially rose against the dollar from 1.1730 to 1.1771 (+41) after consumer inflation data in the US was published and then rose from 1.1771 to 1.1826 (+55) after the FOMC meeting.

The FOMC meeting culminated in the decision to raise interest rates again by 25 base points. The federal funds rate now ranges from 1.25% to 1.50%.

The Fed is planning 3 rate hikes in 2018 and has expressed concerns over slowing inflation in the US. As Janet Yellen said, “our understanding of the forces driving inflation isn’t perfect”.

Since the current rate hike and a further three planned for 2018 are now built into the market price, traders are selling dollars en masse.

eur_141217_5a322d18a9ad4.png

Wednesday turned out to be very volatile for global markets. The dollar retreated on all fronts. By the time the US session opened, the euro had dropped to 1.1730. Market participants were jittery ahead of the FOMC meeting.

After consumer inflation data was published, the first major wave of dollar sales took place. The FOMC meeting and Janet Yellen’s speech led to even more sales. In the US session, the euro recovered to 1.1826. In Asia, the pair has reached the 1.1844 mark.

Three central banks have their meetings today. They are the Bank of England, Bank of Switzerland, and the European Central Bank. Traders will mostly be focused on the ECB and President Mario Draghi’s subsequent press conference. I don’t make forecasts on days when central banks meet and I don’t trade. Because of the press conferences with the heads, these days are unpredictable.

Now let’s see what we can expect from the euro from the technical side. Developments led buyers through the TR line (from 1.1812 high), before breaking the TR1 line (from 1.1961 high) after the FOMC meeting. The breakout of the TR1 intensified the W-model, which started forming after the breakout of the A-A channel. The targets for it are 1.1866 and 1.1881.

The EURUSD pair won’t pay any attention to technical factors during Mario Draghi’s press conference. It could rise above the U3 MA line (1.1889) or just as easily return to 1.1765. No one knows what Draghi will say at the press conference and what journalists will ask him. I think that the most likely outcome is that the pair will move towards the 1.1881 mark.

See more in forex market holidays

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pair is currently trading at 122.26 but yesterday was strong support at 112.05 so in daily chart we can see that the pair is heading again to 112.70 a good forex returns calculator tells us that they are more than 44 pips that we can win in his journey on this Friday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think that if we rally from here, we will probably have a significant amount of resistance at the 0.850 level, but if we can break above that level, it’s likely that we will continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching towards the 0.90 level above. I have profitable forex signal provider always

I think if we can break above the 0.90 level above, that then freezes market to go to the 0.93 handle after that. I think that the 0.8750 level below will be massively supportive, so if we were to break down below there I think the sellers would overwhelm the market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On Wednesday the 10th of January, the euro jumped after a report from Bloomberg that China was preparing to either reduce or stop its purchases of US government bonds. The Chinese regulator, however, dismissed these rumours.

On Thursday the 11th of January, the euro jumped again after the minutes of the ECB’s latest meeting on monetary policy were disclosed. This sent Eurobonds up, along with the euro crosses and our main EURUSD pair. The European regulator remarked that the economic situation is improving, so it’s possible that the bank could revise its monetary policy in the early stages of this year.

The sharp rise of the single currency and weak US inflation data put the dollar under pressure. The producer price index for December dropped by 0.1% against a forecast of +0.2%, and a previous reading of +0.4% (a negative factor for the US Fed).

On Thursday, trading on the euro closed up above 1.20. Now we’ll look at the hourly chart and construct some intraday models for the past 3 days.

eur_120118.png

The only way to protect yourself from unexpected news items is through stop levels. Since the minutes of the ECB meeting were published, the euro has recovered to 1.2066, with this recovery extending into the Asian session. Growth stopped at around the 112th degree. The area between the 112th and 135th degrees is a reversal zone, so the euro could drop to the LB balance line without hindrance during the European session.

Since yesterday’s upwards movement hasn’t been erased, like it was on Wednesday, I think a triple top could form today. I’ve gone for a triple top because in Asia, all the euro crosses are trading up. I’m sure that on these rising crosses, buyers will try to reach new highs. So, once a new high is reached, if there’s a double bearish divergence between the AO indicator and the price, we can start looking downwards.

The target is 1.2075, with a closing price in the region of 1.2042. If the crosses reverse, the target will be 1.1984. If the crosses are falling, the 45th degree won’t stop sellers. Source: https://alpari.com/en/beginner/articles/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Statements from two ECB officials put some downwards pressure on the euro. Both Villeory and Constâncio voiced concerns over the euro’s rally, saying that it’s a source of uncertainty given that this movement goes against the fundamentals. Constâncio added that the ECB’s monetary policy could remain loose for the long term.

The upswing to 1.2288 was brought about by the Bank of Canada. The central bank increased its key rate by 25 base points to 1.25%. Governor Steven Poloz said that the banks decisions depend on current economic decisions. After this news, the euro slipped to 1.2165 (-123 pips).

 

eur_180118.png

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The main target was reached very quickly. The pair dropped without hindrance to 1.2196, followed by an upwards rebound to 1.2288 and the beginning of a head & shoulders model. I don’t think this model will complete its formation today though, as I’m not expecting the price to reverse once the neckline is broken through. In Asia, the euro is trading above 1.22. The range of 1.2188 – 1.2195 that I’ve highlighted has already lost its relevance.

So, what can we expect today?

Hourly cycles are signalling a continued decline for the euro. The daily candlestick for 17/01/18 is also suggestive of a declining euro. Moreover, it has both a long body and wick. The euro’s decline stopped at the 90th degree despite the reversal zone being between the 112th and 135th degrees.

The trend line extended from 1.2323 runs through 1.2248, where the 67th degree currently sits. My forecast is expecting a drop to the 45th degree, but we could see the trend line being tested. How can one enter the market given the current situation? To keep risk to a minimum, I’d look at selling from the 45thand 67th degrees with a stop level above 1.2300, so that the overall risk doesn’t exceed your calculated risk. You could place a stop level above 1.2323, but by increasing the stop, the lot will decrease. The likelihood of the stop will decrease, but so will the level of profit should there be a positive outcome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...