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NZD/USD Daily Analytics
07:41 22.01.2018

Recommendation:

SELL 0.7230

SL 0.7285

TP1 0.7120 TP2 0.7055

On the daily chart, the inability of NZD/USD bulls to hold an important support at 0.7250-0.7265 points at their weakness. The odds of the reversal “Widening wedge” pattern will increase in the pair slides below 0.7170. On the other hand, a break of resistance levels at 0.7395 and 0.7475 will allow speaking about the uptrend’s resumption.

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On H1, NZD/USD keeps forming a “Widening wedge”. A successful test of support at 0.7230 will create a possibility for a decline to 0.7120 and 0.7055.

1516606843-3696dc2326705fd45dfa7b732beb8

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd-usd-kiwi%E2%80%99s-flying-in-a-wedge-6371

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EUR/USD Daily Analitycs
08:40 22.01.2018

https://fbs.com/img/articles/6375/1516610349-661838afae486172642ce7c8db18768c_1200x1200_q90v3.png

There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, there's an opportunity to have wave [v] of 5 in the short term. The main bullish target is 6/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for a downward correction.

The price is consolidating above 8/8 MM Level. It's likely that wave (ii) is about to end, so we're going to have wave (iii) of [v] pretty soon. Also, if the price goes through +2/8 MM Level, the Murray Math indication will be updated.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-wave-ii-is-about-to-end-6375

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AUD/USD Daily Analytics
07:51 22.01.2018

Recommendation:

BUY 0.7895

SL 0.7840

TP1 0.7990 TP2 0.8050 TP3 0.8125

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is fighting for an important level – 78.6% of the wave CD of the 5-0 pattern. The necessary condition for an uptrend’s resumption is a confident advance above resistance at 0.8050. As long as the pair keeps trading above 0.7885-0.7895, bulls remain in control. 

1516607431-1db64c049cc9775b27418fd0e6b08

On H1, there’s a “Spike and reversal with acceleration” pattern. The pullback from the lower border of the uptrend’s channel and supports at 0.7895 and 0.7870 will allow speaking about the end of correction.

https://fbs.com/img/articles/6372/1516607451-ef00342837a633bda01cab6a3fe3e88f_1200x1200_q90v3.png

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud-usd-bulls-loosened-their-grip-6372

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xu4e97xqqamvplbldvz.jpg

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XAU/USD Daily Analytics
07:06 23.01.2018
Recommendation:

SELL $1324 SL $1339 TP1 $1302 TP2 $1280

BUY $1344 SL $1329 TP $1359 TP2 $1380 TP3 $1392

On the daily chart, if XAU/USD renews January high, the risks of its going to 127.2% target of AB=CD will increase. The nearest levels of support are at $1324 and $1302-1306 an ounce.

1516691089-20c6ebb86722ac92f8a505b7903a9

On H1, XAU/USD consolidated in the $1324-1344 range. A break of its upper border will trigger AB=CD pattern with a target at 161.8%. On the other hand, successful test of support at $1324 will increase the risks of a correction.

1516691111-e12a637cc937326a9c7981d6dfc46

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/xau-usd-gold-is-in-the-corridor-6397

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USD/CAD Daily Analytics
07:15 23.01.2018
Recommendation:

BUY 1.251 SL 1.2455 TP1 1.264 TP2 1.28 TP3 1.2855

SELL 1.2375 SL 1.243 TP1 1.2275 TP2 1.22 TP3 1.2125

On the daily chart, USD/CAD keeps fighting for an important level of 1.2462. Near it the pair formed a triangle. The break of it will either allow bulls to count on the pair’s return to resistance at 1.2670 or, on the other hand, increase the risks of the bearish trend’s resumption. 

1516691638-1430b06b52ccdf0a9e951da313446

On H1, USD/CAD there is a “Spike and ledge” pattern. A successful test of the upper or lower border of the 1.2375-1.2510 consolidation range will create grounds for a “Bat” pattern or AB=CD.

1516691653-5c726ce87bf89e31cdcfbd4c37b26

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-cad-triangle-will-be-the-judge-6398

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AUD/USD: AUSSIE IN CORRECTION TO CLOUD
07:50 23.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 0.7950; resistance – 0.8030

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7950; SL — 0.7930; TP1 — 0.8030; TP2 — 0.8080.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in correction to the Cloud.

1516693813-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud-usd-aussie-in-correction-to-cloud-6399

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics
07:51 23.01.2018
Technical levels: support – 110.50; resistance – 111.00

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 111.00; SL — 110.80; TP1 — 111.50; TP2 — 112.00.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; an irregular dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the prices are entered into cloudy area and may continue growing up.

1516693812-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-dollar-entered-into-cloud-6400Riki_Analytics

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DOES BITCOIN REALLY HAVE A FAIR VALUE?
08:54 23.01.2018
Bitcoin is inflating and deflating from day to day like a bubble. Nowadays there are a lot of questions about Bitcoin and one of them is what its fair value is.

Economists and analysts are trying to create their own formulas to count Bitcoin's value. So let’s look how they tried to do it.

There are two parameters of a currency's fair value measurement. To measure the fair value, it is needed to identify a store value and an exchange value. Mostly, all economists who believe that Bitcoin has a value, make their calculations based on these two figures. Currency strategist at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Woo is one of them. Woo tried to compare Bitcoin to silver as a store of value but failed. The value was not determined. And later analysts of the bank declared that a true value for cryptocurrencies may be impossible to assess.

Then Bitcoin also was compared to gold. Nowadays, the total amount of Bitcoin is much less than that of gold. However, real fans of Bitcoin believe that it will surpass gold in total value.

There is another approach to this issue. Analyst of Credit Suisse Damien Boey estimated the Bitcoin fair value at $6,000. How did he count? He took into account the size of Bitcoin's network and the yield spread on BBB-rated bonds. So Bitcoin rises as more people use the network. He found out that Bitcoin price has a negative correlation to BBB credit spreads – the difference between the yield on BBB-rated debt. The price of Bitcoin depends on a financial policy of a government as well.

In the next approach, economists were taking into account the distributed system of the currency. They gave value to Bitcoin because of its transactional system. But they concluded that it was wrong to assess the value based on convenience of payments because now Bitcoin is rarely used for buying anything. So economists came to the dead end again.

However, we should not miss an opinion that Bitcoin does not have any value at all. For example, Richard Turnhill, a strategist for BlackRock Financial, the world largest money manager, world-class investors Warren Buffett from Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Jamie Dimon from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said that Bitcoin is a bubble that can rise in a short-term, but it will burst anyway.

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Conclusion

When economists start to estimate Bitcoin, they meet 2 main problems. Firstly, Bitcoin is rarely used for buying anything. It is impossible to estimate its exchange value because nowadays transactions include only buying and selling Bitcoin, Bitcoin is not exchanged for anything else because of the permanently changing price. The total number of bitcoin transactions over the past year added up to less than one-tenth of 1 % of total e-commerce transactions. Secondly, considering a store of value, analysts met another problem. They compared cryptocurrency with silver and gold, but if we can hold metals, we cannot hold Bitcoins. Numbers of metals and cryptocurrency are not compared as well. Cryptocurrencies do not have underlying value like metals. Bitcoin cannot be guaranteed by an issuer because there is not any.

That is why, we can come to the conclusion that the value of Bitcoin is created by users: as much as people believe in cryptocurrency, as much it increases.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/does-bitcoin-really-have-a-fair-value-6402?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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EUR/USD: "PENNANT" PATTERN
09:35 23.01.2018

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The main trend is still bullish, but there's an opportunity to have a bearish correction because of the last "Triple Top" pattern. So, we should keep an eye on the nearest support area at 1.2194 - 1.2164 as the next intraday target.

1516700065-ec7a1b9e731150daf377c148661fb

There's a "Pennant" pattern, so the pair is likely going to test the closest support at 1.2164 in the coming hours. If a pullback from this level happens little later on, there'll be a moment to have another bullish price movement.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-pennant-pattern-6403?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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GBP/USD Daily Analytics
09:39 23.01.2018

1516700065-5fec09125b1dc41ae1e1ea01e2bb5

Bulls faced with resistance at 1.4011, so there's a "V-Top" pattern. The main intraday target is the nearest support at 1.3895 - 1.3834. This area could be a departure point for an upward price movement in the direction of the next resistance at 1.3944 - 1.4011.

1516700065-2ebbc908a5fdd99c5717c09e34866

There's a developing bearish correction, so the market is likely going to test the closest support at 1.3834 during the day. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this level is on the table, bulls will probably try to achieve another resistance at 1.4011 - 1.4089.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp-usd-developing-bearish-correction-6404?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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THE STABILITY OF THE BOJ POLICY
10:42 23.01.2018
Today is the day of the Bank of Japan meeting. The BOJ announced its Outlook Report. The key point is that the Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged. This meeting showed almost solid consent -  eight to one member voted to leave interest rates at the same level of -0.1%. At the same time, the members claimed that quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) with yield curve control (YCC) program will be continued. The Bank is promising to buy Japanese government bonds so that 10-year JGB yields will remain around 0%. The Bank is going to “continue expanding the monetary base until the year-on-year rate of increase in the observed CPI exceeds 2% and stays above the target in a stable manner”.

So the BOJ claims that it is going to continue with the current loose policy. However, there are speculations around this report, investors are expecting policy normalization soon. We can see it on a USD/JPY pair 4-hours chart. Despite the news about the unchanged Japanese monetary policy, USD/JPY is falling, the lowest price from the time of the announcement was 110.63.

Technical analysis shows that USD/JPY is dangerously close to the support line from the 2016 low in 110 area. Very close to this area there is 100-week MA. These strong support levels will hold initial selling pressure.  On the upside, the main obstacle is at 111.70 (200-day MA, 50-week MA).  

1516703693-35b48d91639b783c425c3f25f211b

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/the-stability-of-the-boj-policy-6406?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:29 23.01.2018

1516710518-c8e753ddbd7bf7da6b5cf72c0e4a0

There's an "Engulfing" pattern, which has been formed at the last high. So, the pair is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another upward price movement.

1516710518-4c959c0eab8ce980a00705f765181

The 55 Moving Average acted as support, so there's a "High Wave" pattern. In this case, we could have a local upward correction. Nevertheless, bears are likely going to test the 89 MA afterwards.

More:
[URL=https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-engulfing-pattern-6407?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics
]https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-engulfing-pattern-6407?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics[/URL]

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USD/JPY Daily Analytics
12:32 23.01.2018

1516710518-de0352193d844c2e41e07f18137c3

There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term.

1516710518-1f33d6a9d182202e9db7b851e35b4

The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a "Harami" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd-jpy-bearish-harami-6408?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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EUR/USD Daily Analytics
12:39 23.01.2018

1516711102-66f07ff26fffd1acd2289b908723c

There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward impulse in wave [v] of 5 in the coming days. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

1516711103-9769aff1555a025f1a91a82199231

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible triangle in wave [iv]. If correct, wave [v] is going to begin anytime soon.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur-usd-triangle-in-wave-iv-6409?utm_source=forum&utm_medium=affiliate&utm_campaign=EN_English&utm_content=Riki_Analytics

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EUR/USD: TRIANGLE IN WAVE [IV]
12:39 23.01.2018

xvm2xuya37f62imzey5rm.png 

There's a pullback from 4/8 MM Level, so wave [iv] might have been formed. Therefore, we're likely going to have an upward impulse in wave [v] of 5 in the coming days. The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level.

x4kis1w5qfktwz66egip.png

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there's a possible triangle in wave [iv]. If correct, wave [v] is going to begin anytime soon.

More:
https://goo.gl/TqZEf3

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USD/JPY: BEARISH "HARAMI"
12:32 23.01.2018

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There's a bearish "Harami", which has been formed on the upper "Window". So, the market is likely going to test the lower "Window" in the short term.

xtdiikkhf1bj8hg57s16z.png

The 89 Moving Average has acted as resistance once again, so there's a "Harami" pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving down in the coming hours.

More:
https://goo.gl/59Rb7s

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