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riki143

Re: Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

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riki143    1

USD/JPY: CONFIRMED BULLISH "HARAMI"
14:08 17.08.2017

1502967696-d7e0c75b76d890367f1413d032b7d

We've got a "Tweezers" and a "Hanging Man", which both have been formed on the 89 Moving Average. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the lower side of the nearest "Window" soon.

1502967696-bf819ba48f390818f5a34952afe98

There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed, so the price is likely going to test the upper "Window". If a pullback from this level happens afterwards, bears will have a green light to deliver another decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_confirmed_bullish_%22harami%22_3048

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riki143    1

GBP/USD: BEARS FULFILLED THEIR MISSION
09:33 17.08.2017

Recommendation:

SELL 1.2940 SL 1.3005 TP 1.2730

SELL 1.3005 SL 1.3060 TP1 1.2850 TP2 1.2730

SELL 1.3055 SL 1.3110 TP1 1.2925 TP2 1.285 TP3 1.2730

On the daily chart, GBP/USD reached 88.6% target of Shark pattern and reached the lower border of the uptrend channel. This increases the risks of correction towards 23.6%, 38.2% and 50% of the wave CD within the transformation of the “Shark” into 5-0.

1502951458-b36b128f0e9f8c6f63f21aa38fa9e

On H1, GBP/USD formed a “Widening wedge” and a “Shark”. Correction movement towards 1.2940, 1.3005 and 1.3055 may be used for selling.

1502951476-7950db3e3df29116244cdc879773f

More;
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bears_fulfilled_their_mission_3031

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riki143    1

USD/CHF: BEARS ARE WINNING
09:47 17.08.2017

Recommendation:

SELL 0.9585 SL 0.9630 TP1 0.9510 TP2 0.9475

On the daily chart, USD/CHF failed to overcome resistance at 0.9765. This points at buyer’s weakness. If bears manage to settle above 0.9650 and trigger Gartley pattern, risks of decline towards the lower border of the downtrend channel will increase.

1502952319-083795b321e38920c618c02f6224a

On H1, USD/CHF keeps forming “Widening wedge”. A break of support at 0.9585 will end the process (point 5) will strengthen the odds of a pullback to 78.6% and 88.6% of the last bullish wave.

1502952338-351a015a31e5fdb2fee97b43bc66a

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_chf%3a_bears_are_winning_3032

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riki143    1

EUR/USD: BEARS GOING TO TEST CLOSEST SUPPORT
10:36 17.08.2017

1502955330-f4f17b56174bf9520d945405de47c

There's a "Double Bottom", so the price reached the nearest resistance at 1.1801. In this case, bears are likely going to test the closest support at 1.1727 - 1.1712 in the short term. If we have a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to achieve the next resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1846.

1502955330-476a21e72b4e98856b86a54dd3bff

Bulls found resistance at 1.1784, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average soon. If a pullback from this line happens little later on, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards another resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1823.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bears_going_to_test_closest_support_3035

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riki143    1

EUR/USD: "V-BOTTOM" PATTERN[/NB]
09:56 18.08.2017

1503039328-455931bd6d63318c689656381775a

There's a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price reached the 55 Moving Average. In this case, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1846. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards the closest support at 1.1638 - 1.1649.

1503039328-64df3e2444a44b5650093db20431e

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so the price is consolidating. It's likely that bears are going to achieve the nearest support at 1.1712 - 1.1703. However, if we have a pullback from these levels, bulls will have a green light to reach another resistance at 1.1757 - 1.1784.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22v_bottom%22_pattern_3062

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riki143    1

USD/JPY IS LOOKING FOR DIRECTION
10:30 18.08.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 110.95 SL 110.40 TP 112.50 

On the daily chart, bears managed to lead the pair outside of the triangle. This increases the possibility of pattern AB=CD with the target at 161.8% in case of a successful break below support at 108. On the contrary, the pair’s return inside the triangle will show sellers’ weakness.

1503041269-5a117e210f07e8a06e5a07b2ea892

On H1, USD/JPY bulls managed to seize the initiative and return the quotes to the upper border of the downtrend channel. Further activation of the inverted “Head and Shoulders” and “Shark” will strengthen the risks of a bearish trend.

1503041285-3297c54597baddc0779dab87f7356

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy_is_looking_for_direction__3066

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riki143    1

GBP/USD: BEARISH "FLAG" PATTERN
10:00 18.08.2017

1503039328-b5e4acf04bc072d585ad795b0a8b7

We've got a bearish "Flag" pattern, so the market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.2830 - 1.2811 in the short term. At the same time, bulls will probably try to achieve the nearest resistance at 1.2892 - 1.2911 afterwards

1503039328-1ad28b358972a15c747f8eeaf3b55

The price is consolidating near the 34 Moving Average. Also, there's a possible "Flag", so the price is likely going to test the upper side of this pattern. If a pullback from the closest resistance at 1.2911 - 1.2926 happens, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline towards another support at 1.2930 - 1.2811.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bearish_%22flag%22_pattern_3065

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riki143    1

EUR/USD: BEARS ARE READY FOR A NEW ATTACK
10:37 18.08.2017

Recommendation:

SELL 128 SL 128.55 TP1 126.90 TP2 125.80

On the daily chart, bears attempted for the second time to test important support at 128. It failed, but sellers don’t give up and hope to develop correction and reach 88.6% target of “Shark” pattern.

1503041796-7838955cc2a4a8535a1afde1a52f6

On H1, EUR/JPY formed “Head and Shoulders” pattern. A break of the neckline near 128.00 support with simultaneous activation of the AB=CD pattern will create an opportunity for a pullback to the uptrend towards 125.60-125.80.

1503041813-144c086f9efd0dd7367f2818eb875

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_bears_are_ready_for_a_new_attack_3067

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riki143    1

GBP/USD: UNDER KIJUN’S RESISTANCE
13:17 18.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2840; resistance – 1.2900.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.2900; SL — 1.2920; TP1 — 1.2840; TP2 — 1.2810.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the prices are under the resistance of Kijun-sen and may continue falling down.

1503051438-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_under_kijun%E2%80%99s_resistance_3071

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riki143    1

USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
13:17 18.08.2017

The US dollar index (DXY) got support at 92.80 last week and went up to consolidate between 93.20 and 94.00.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed that most central bank officials supported a move towards unwinding the Fed's massive balance sheet in September. The $4.5 trillion balance sheet was built up after the financial crisis to keep borrowing costs low. In addition, markets closely follow the Fed’s discussion about inflation, which has recently shown signs of weakness. Opinions within the Fed slightly differ on this point: some members think that the softness in prices is temporary, while others worry that it will take longer than expected for inflation to rise to 2% target. As a result, the odds are that the Fed will delay a rate hike until inflation picks up. This is not very inspiring for the USD.

In the upcoming days, pay attention to new home sales and crude oil inventories on Wednesday, existing home sales on Thursday and core durable goods orders on Friday. In addition, at the end of the week, world's major central bankers will gather at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium. The Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the topic of financial stability at 17:00 MT time on Friday.

Note that political turmoil in Trump’s administration and the market’s risk aversion will likely reduce the impact of any positive statistics from America and keep the US currency under pressure.

Despite the recent recovery, DXY is still not far from its 13-month lows hit at the beginning of August. It looks like the greenback is correcting up within the general downtrend. A decline below 93.20 will open the way down to 93.00 and 92.50 (200-week MA). Resistance is at 94.00 ahead of 94.90 (50-day MA).   

1503051240-5e0d291e37f1df420e0609e389824

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%3a_outlook_for_august_21_25_3070

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riki143    1

USD/JPY: DOLLAR RETURNED TO NEGATIVE AREA
13:18 18.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 109.00; resistance – 109.50.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 109.50; SL — 109.70; TP1 — 109.00; TP2 — 108.60.
Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a cancelled golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the falling lines; the bears continue their offensive.

1503051438-3dcc4d3b0e9d38341d309e86e7227

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_dollar_returned_to_negative_area_3072

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riki143    1

EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
13:25 18.08.2017

In line with expectations, EUR/USD moved horizontally between 1.1845 and 1.1685 during the past week. European stocks were affected by terrorist attack n Barcelona.

The minutes of the ECB July meeting revealed the central bank’s concern over the euro’s strength. It also seems that officials are still uncertain how to signal changes in their policy settings as the economic outlook improves and the need for broad-based bond purchases diminishes. 

The ECB President Mario Draghi will address a conference in Germany on Aug. 23, and two days later attends the US Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium. According to a Reuters report, Draghi won’t deliver a new policy message in Jackson Hole. At the same time, taking into account low inflation in the euro area and other developed economies, any comments on this point will have an impact on the market.

Other events in the region’s economic calendar include German ZEW economic sentiment index on Tuesday, euro zone’s flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Wednesday and German Ifo business climate on Friday.

The pair’s now in a correction within the overall uptrend. The trend channel will stay intact as long as the pair’s above 1.1625.  It looks like the euro will visit this level. If it is breached, the pair will be vulnerable for a decline to 1.1540. A close below 200-week MA at 1.1770 won’t be a very encouraging sign. Return above 1.1790 is needed to open the way to the recent highs at 1.1845 and 1.1910, as well as the psychological level of 1.2000.

1503051829-2349034b7ae13b26b6714da8aabcf

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_outlook_for_august_21_25_3073

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riki143    1

EUR/USD: "ENGULFING", "DOJI" AND "HARAMI"
13:31 18.08.2017

1503052258-c1b1fb7a9ceb217001736c73f0ed5

There are bullish patterns such an "Engulfing", a "Doji" and a "Harami", which all have been formed on the 55 Moving Average line. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance in the short term

1503052258-0f6d74eab1954bd746c394c1054f7

The price has reached the Moving Averages, so it's likely to have any bearish pattern soon. In this case, we could have a local bearish correction, but bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22engulfing%22%2c_%22doji%22_and_%22harami%22_3074

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riki143    1

USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO REACH LOWER "WINDOW"
13:34 18.08.2017

1503052258-f2bd657559f439fc73e5184eda132

There isn't any reversal pattern so far, which means we should keep an eye on the lower "Window" as an intraday target. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have an upward correction towards the Moving Averages

1503052258-40cba197806cc5e0e71d51e8b078d

We've got an "Inverted Hammer" and a "Tweezers" patterns, but both of them haven't been confirmed yet. So, there's an opportunity to have a local bullish correction and the following decline afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bears_going_to_reach_lower_%22window%22_3075

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riki143    1

USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
15:46 18.08.2017

USD/JPY had a very volatile week. The pair rebounded from 109.00 to 111.00, but then was rejected down and returned to 109.00.

Japanese GDP showed the biggest expansion in more than 2 years (+1% q/q) in the second quarter as consumer and business spending picked up. However, wage growth and inflation remain subdued as companies avoid passing more of their profits to employees. Japan will release inflation figures on Friday. Although a small acceleration in price growth from 0.4% to 0.5% is expected, this is still very far from the regulator’s 2% inflation target. As a result, risk sentiment will remain the primary driver of the pair.   

The market’s risk aversion is feeding demand for the safe-haven yen. Concerns over US President Donald Trump's ability to push through the pro-growth measures led to significant declines on Wall Street. Terrorist attack in Barcelona also affected the markets. North Korea can also be a source of worries.

USD/JPY remains in short- and longer-term downtrend. A decline below 109.00 will open the way down to 108.80 (bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud/August, June lows). In turn, decline below that point will bring the pair down to 108.10 (April low). A break below the latter will be a signal of the bigger top at Forex market. Resistance lies at 109.50, 110.50 and 111.00.

1503060352-9979bfdacf87e6ddf67fc3a176475

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_outlook_for_august_21_25_3082

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riki143    1

GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 21-25
16:23 18.08.2017

Reports released this week in the UK showed a mixed picture. Consumer price inflation in Britain unexpectedly held steady in July at an annual rate of 2.6%, despite the fact that analysts were looking forward to a higher number. This news diminishes the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates – not a positive factor for the pound. Retail sales growth exceeded forecasts on the monthly basis, although advance of the indicator in 3 months through July was the weakest in almost 4 years.

In the coming days, Britain will release the second estimate of its GDP growth in the second quarter. According to the initial data, the UK economy expanded by only 0.3% – that’s weak in comparison with last year’s figures.

Uncertainty about Brexit and global risk concerns are having a negative impact on the British currency.

GBP/USD broke below the 50-day MA at 1.2930 at the start of the week and is now consolidating above the 100-day MA at 1.2870. The pair’s currently trading at support line, which connects March and June lows. Decline below the recent lows and 61.8% retracement of June-August rally will open the way down towards the next Fibo level at 1.2735 and 200-day MA at 1.2640. Resistance levels are at 1.2930 and 1.3000. 

1503062554-19dda06215037e098a5fb4cc55818

More;
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_outlook_for_august_21_25_3083

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riki143    1

EUR/USD: CONSOLIDATION IN CLOUDY AREA
10:32 21.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.1640, 1.1730; resistance – 1.1770, 1.1820.

Trade recommendations:

Sell — 1.1720; SL — 1.1740; TP1 — 1.1680; TP2 – 1.1640.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the Cloud and may test the support of Senkou Span B.

1503300732-5974574d0f06c411e972e24d898d2

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_consolidation_in_cloudy_area_3096

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riki143    1

AUD/USD: AUSSIE TESTED SSB’S RESISTANCE
10:33 21.08.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7890; resistance – 0.7935.

Trade recommendations:

Buy — 0.7890; SL — 0.7870; TP1 — 0.7935; TP3 — 0.7980.
Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud with falling Senkou Span A; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are testing the resistance of Senkou Span B.

1503300732-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_tested_ssb%E2%80%99s_resistance_3097[/UR]

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riki143    1

NZD/USD: BULLS PREPARE A STRIKE
11:18 21.08.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 0.7335 SL 0.7280 TP1 0.7435 TP2 0.7530

On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps retracing in line with the transformation of the “Shark” pattern to 5-0. Return of the pair to resistance at 0.7386 (23.6% of the wave CD) and its following successful test will increase the odds of the uptrend’s resumption.

1503303437-fb9be1d9d65d6402746f6573306cf

On H1, bulls are ready to launch a third attack on 0.7334. Their success will trigger the “Shark” pattern and increase the odds of reaching 88.6% target. We don’t exclude the possibility of an inverted “Head and Shoulders” pattern.

1503303455-3696dc2326705fd45dfa7b732beb8

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd%3a_bulls_prepare_a_strike__3102

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riki143    1

EUR/USD: 34 MA ACTED AS RESISTANCE
11:29 21.08.2017

1503303931-f661d9397fb4886a8251600986528

The 34 Moving Average has acted as resistance, so the price is consolidating. It seems like the market is going to reach the nearest support at 1.1712 - 1.1683. If a pullback from this area happens, there'll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement towards the next resistance at 1.1801 - 1.1846.

1503303930-f363e9a3a3e1b738fa5f0215a3b77

The price is consolidating along resistance at 1.1757. If a pullback from the 55 Moving Average happens, bears are likely going to achieve the closest support between the levels 1.1727 - 1.1712. Nevertheless, we should keep an eye on the next resistance at 1.1784 - 1.1801 as a bullish target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_34_ma_acted_as_resistance_3103

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