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GBP/USD: PAIR GOING TO TEST NEAREST SUPPORT
11:30 01.09.2017

1504254364-10cbc5b80424155e4c99b43600700

We've got a "V-Bottom" pattern, so the price reached the 89 Moving Average. In this case, we could have an upward price movement towards the nearest support area at 1.2891 - 1.2877. If a pullback from these levels arrives little later on, bulls are likely going to test another resistance at 1.2958 - 1.2989.

1504254365-6d1da0ff14607d8758114d31ff922

Bulls reached resistance at 1.2942, so there's a "Double Top" pattern. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve the nearest support at 1.2891 - 1.2877. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.2942 - 1.2958 as an intraday target.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_pair_going_to_test_nearest_support_3416

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NFP: A HOT DAY FOR THE US DOLLAR
11:38 01.09.2017

It’s the first Friday of September that means that the United States will release labor market data for August at 15:30 MT time. This week has already been very volatile for EUR/USD and USD/JPY. Will the news release change anything?

The risks
Yes, there are no doubts that this release will have a big impact on the market as it’s the last one before the Federal Reserve’s September meeting.

ADP employment report, which is the same as NFP, except it’s prepared not by the authorities, but by a private entity, showed that 237K jobs were created in America last month compared to 185K expected. After this publication, many market players started thinking that NFP will come out strong as well. Remember though that ADP and NFP don’t always correlate.

History shows that August payrolls tend to disappoint the market. The reasons for such consistent pattern are not quite clear. It may have something to do with seasonal factors: American teachers quit jobs and are re-employed when the new school year starts. August is also a holiday season. Many people who do contract work don't take new assignments. There are also some tricky reasons to believe that wage growth (average hourly earnings) will be lower as well (this deals with the fact how the indicator is counted). Β 

The Fed is closely watching the US economic figures as traders try to predict further actions of the US central bank. The devastating hurricane that ran over Texas diminishes the odds of the Fed’s rate hike this year (although the hurricane won’t affect this month’s NFP). A disappointment in labor data will make the US currency suffer a lot. At the same time, USD bulls will need a reading above the consensus forecast to continue the greenback’s recovery.

The forecasts
Here are the forecasts of some well-known banks.

1504254937-c4aa45cf9797a892ee3799c565805

The impact
>200K – very USD-positive
180K-200K – mildly positive for the USD
Β 150K-180K – mildly negative for the USD
<150 – very USD-negative

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/_nfp%3a_a_hot_day_for_the_us_dollar_3417

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EUR/USD: PULLBACK FROM 1/8 MM LEVEL
12:44 01.09.2017

1504259001-3e6eeebc05c9659b0d7df4140c784

We've got a pullback from 1/8 MM Level, so wave [a] has been ended. However, wave 4 is likely going to be continued. So, if a pullback from 2/8 MM Level happens afterwards, we could have another bearish impulse in wave [c] of 4.

1504259001-d084593ea111b3753c06636ed1c0a

There's a bearish impulse in wave [a]. Also, bulls delivered a small bullish impulse in wave (a), so wave is likely going to take the form of a zigzag. The main intraday target is 4/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [c] of 4.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_pullback_from_1_8_mm_level_3419

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EUR/USD: CONFIRMED "DOJI"
14:31 01.09.2017

1504265333-528a6fdde2499d8d0cc748cee01c3

There's a bullish "Harami", which has been confirmed by the last "Three Methods". So, the market is likely going to rise towards the nearest resistance in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, we could have another decline.

1504265333-fb3dd6cea7156276ba9c5f0180f78

We've got a confirmed "Doji" at the local low, so the pair is likely going to test the upper "Window" during the day. However, if we have a bearish pattern little later on, bears will probably try to test the Moving Averages once again.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_confirmed_%22doji%22_3421

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USD/JPY: BEARS GOING TO PUSH PRICE LOWER
14:33 01.09.2017

1504265541-d423f5442ceb7e39c6f8ba1015ea8

There's a "Shooting Star", which has been formed on the 144 Moving Average. Also, there's a local bullish "Harami", so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for a decline toward the lower "Window".

1504265333-0302f280b3408e0b9768071724f11

We've got bullish patterns such a "Tweezers" and a "High Wave", but both of them have a quite week confirmation. Therefore, if a pullback from the upper "Window" happens, bears are likely going to push the price lower.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_bears_going_to_push_price_lower_3422

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USD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
16:31 01.09.2017

The US dollar index (DXY) dipped to 91.55 before recovering to 93.30 area, but the descending trend line didn’t let the greenback to push higher and it reserved back to the downside.

The fundamental picture for the US currency looks rather grim. Geopolitical tensions increased as North Korea launched a missile that flew over Japan on Tuesday and Trump’s Administration ordered to close 3 Russian diplomatic facilities in the United States. On the domestic front, hurricane Harvey may be the most expensive natural disaster in US history. According to the weather forecaster AccuWeather, it will cost the economy about $190 billion. No big announcement on the US tax reform came from Donald Trump. Finally, US labor market figures for August brought a big disappointment. America created only 156K jobs vs. 180K expected. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% and monthly wage growth slowed down to 0.1%.

1504272668-c4aa45cf9797a892ee3799c565805

Other data from the US turned out to be mixed. American economy performed better than expected in the second quarter, as preliminary GDP growth was revised from the initial estimate of 2.6% to 3.0%. However, inflation keeps hovering at low levels – this may pose an obstacle to the Fed’s rate hikes this year. Consumer spending rose slightly less than expected in July, but consumer confidence came out strong.

US banks will be closed on Monday as the nation will celebrate Labor Day. All in all, the week will be lighter on the data front. Pay attention to ISM services PMI on Wednesday and unemployment claims and crude oil inventories on Thursday.

American currency remains within a downtrend. Declines below 92.00 (50-month MA) and 2016 low at 91.88 will bring DXY to 2015 low at 90.70. The greenback needs to return above 93.00 to reverse this trend and get a chance to rise to 94.00.

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More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd%3a_outlook_for_september_4_8_3423

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EUR/USD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
17:18 01.09.2017

The single currency had an extremely volatile week. EUR/USD made a spike to 1.2070, then fell to 1.1820 and then made another spike to the levels close to 1.2000 before returning below 1.1900.

The euro made bullish swings on good data from the euro area and the US dollar’s weakness. European inflation gathered pace in August. CPI increased by 1.5% exceeding analysts’ forecasts. At the same time, the acceleration was mainly because of higher oils prices as core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, maintained the same pace.

Disappointing US labor data on Friday pushed the euro higher, but the euro bulls were stopped by a report from Bloomberg, citing unnamed euro zone officials, that the ECB may not be ready to finalize their decision on next year’s QE program until December.

Traders are looking forward to the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, September 7. Only a few analysts expect the ECB to announce a timeline for its withdrawal in bond purchase plans. At his speech in Jackson Hole in August, the ECB President Mario Draghi said that β€œa significant degree of monetary accommodation” was still warranted. Instead, the market’s focus will be on the regulator’s comments on the euro’s strength. Minutes of the regulator’s most recent meeting showed some officials were concerned about this. Yet, some of the ECB members have made hawkish comments recently.

EUR/USD is still within the general uptrend. A weekly close below 1.1900 may set the ground for further correction to the downside. The 200-week MA at 1.1750 should act as support ahead of 1.1700. The level of 1.2000 represents a key psychological level. The pair’s inability to close above it on Tuesday together with daily MACD divergence points at the necessity to visit support levels. In addition, pay attention to the fact that EUR/USD ran into the Ichimoku Cloud and 50-period MA at the monthly chart – these things create resistance.

The US economic calendar is going to be light. Take into account our technical analysis considerations and prepare for volatility during the ECB meeting & press conference.

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More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_outlook_for_september_4_8_3425

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GBP/USD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
17:38 01.09.2017

In line with our expectations, GBP/USD tried to recover but remained limited by the key psychological level of 1.3000 on the upside. The pair’s recovery was caused primarily by the weakness of the US dollar and not by the strength of British pound. Β 

The sterling remains under the negative impact of uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union. The third round of Brexit negotiations started on Monday, but the EU’s chief negotiator said that the progress of the talks was slow.

One of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members Saunders, who has recently voted for a rate hike, warned that unless the regulator didn’t start raising rates soon, it will have to increase rates at a faster pace in future potentially hurting economic growth. However, the prevailing opinion is still that the BoE will keep rates low until the situation with Brexit becomes clearer.

The UK manufacturing PMI hit a 4-month high in August. In the coming days, the nation will release construction and services PMIs. On addition, the BoE Governor Mark Carney will speak at the House of Commons in line with Inflation Report hearings on Tuesday. His comments may be market movers. At the end of the week, on Friday, Britain will release manufacturing production figures.

Technically GBP/USD rebounded from support line connecting April, June and September lows. This line is currently providing support around 1.2800. On H4 we see something like an inverted Head & Shoulders. A break above 1.3000 will allow the pound to strengthen to 1.3100 and 1.3160. Below 1.2800 the pound will get vulnerable for a decline to 1.2750 and 1.2660 (200-day MA).

1504276628-95a0a8967a921ee3862ebe236f6c4

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_outlook_for_september_4_8_3426

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USD/JPY: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
18:09 01.09.2017

Japanese yen has been influenced by tensions between the US and North Korea. It gained as a safe haven at the beginning of the week after North Korea fired a missile over Japanese territory on Tuesday. USD/JPY fell to 108.25 before recovering to the 110.50 area.

According to Japan’s defense minister, more missiles will come. North Korea watchers suspect the regime may conduct another nuclear test over the next 10 days. Although market reactions to North Korea’s actions have become more muted, if the Asian nation continues to escalate the situation, the yen will strengthen more versus the US dollar.

Japanese preliminary industrial production declined by 0.8%, housing starts fell by 2.3%, household spending reduced by 0.2%. In the coming days, Japan will release average cash earnings, leading indicators, final GDP for the second quarter and current account. US economic calendar will be lighter than in the previous week. The greenback may take a break, although American economic fundamentals aren’t encouraging.

USD/JPY managed to close in August above 50-month MA at 109.70. The pair is supported at 108.10 (April low). A decline below this level will set the stage for a big swing down. The fact that the US dollar managed to rise despite the disappointing labor market data on Friday suggests the possibility of some near-term recovery, although there are many resistance levels ahead at 111.00, 111.40 (200-week MA) and 112.40 (200-day MA).

1504278431-35b48d91639b783c425c3f25f211b

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_outlook_for_september_4_8_3427

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USD/CAD: OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 4-8
18:32 01.09.2017

Canadian dollar keeps making impressive gains versus its US counterpart. USD/CAD made an attempt to recover, but was severely rejected down from 1.2660 and fell to the lowest levels in more than 2 years.

The pair was hit both by the US problems and Canada’s bright economic figures. The CAD strengthened even as oil prices slipped in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, which has paralyzed a quarter of the US refining industry. A report released on Thursday showed that Canadian GDP grew at 4.5% annual pace in the second quarter, at the fastest pace since 2011. In addition, Mexican Economy Minister said on Thursday that Mexico and Canada would remain in the North American Free Trade Agreement even if the US administration abandoned the accord.

Traders are now almost sure that the Bank of Canada will raise its benchmark interest rate this year. Some players are even expecting a rate hike as soon as at the upcoming meeting on Wednesday, September 6. Such possibility is estimated at 30%. The likelihood of a rate hike in 2017, in general, is estimated at 85%.

Canadians will celebrate the Labor Day on Monday, and banks both in Canada and the US will be closed. Other days of the week will be packed with important events for CAD. Economic data releases include trade balance, building permits, Ivey PMI and employment figures.

USD/CAD remains in a downtrend. This trend will likely continue. A weekly close below 200-week MA at 1.2430 will be a bearish sign. Next support levels are at 1.2300 and 1.2200. MACD divergence on the daily chart may allow some correction to the upside. Resistance is at 1.2430 and 1.2550.

1504279784-bd82db647f8628d84c81f807d5b0e

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_cad%3a_outlook_for_september_4_8_3428

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EUR/USD: "THORN" PATTERN
10:07 04.09.2017

1504508725-95beb91f76e8a230131cb9fe5296f

The main trend is still bullish, but the price faced resistance at 1.1959, so we've got a "Thorn" pattern, which pushed the market to the 34 Moving Average. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest support area at 1.1827 - 1.1801 as an intraday target. If a pullback from these levels happens, we could have an upward price movement towards the closest resistance at 1.1909 - 1.1959.

1504508726-9bc93f63f4711c31328b3d520eb1b

Bears faced support at 1.1847, so the price is consolidating. However, the pair is likely going to test the next support at 1.1827 - 1.1822. If so, we could have a new local low soon. Meanwhile, there's an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards the nearest resistance at 1.1892 - 1.1909 afterwards.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_%22thorn%22_pattern_3435

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GBP/USD: BULLS GOING TO BREAK THE LAST HIGH
10:10 04.09.2017

1504508725-2eb62c080325edb643eaa3218ae5f

Bulls found resistance at 1.2985, so we've got a "V-Top" pattern, which has been confirmed. If the 89 Moving Average acts as support, the price is likely going to test another resistance at 1.2989. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to test the nearest support at 1.2932 - 1.2891.

1504508725-8b4287a3c68c36c43f3631d0d1f78

There's a "V-Top" pattern, which pushed the price to the closest support at 1.2936. Nevertheless, bulls are likely going to break the last high during the day. If the market doesn't fixate above 1.2989 - 1.2994, there'll be an opportunity to have a decline in the direction of the next support at 1.2932 - 1.2916.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_bulls_going_to_break_the_last_high_3436

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EUR/USD: MARKET GOING TO TEST 55 MA AGAIN
10:27 04.09.2017

1504509945-ee054a8cc7975347d77f1ecc59c33

The 34 & 55 Moving Averages have acted as support, so we've got bullish patterns such a "Harami" and an "Inverted Hammer". However, confirmation of these patterns is quite weak, so the market is likely going to test the 55 MA once again.

1504509945-e5f79ebffce6a24ae226bcbe8fd9b

The price is consolidating near the last "Window". Also, there are a "Harami" and a "High Wave" patterns. Therefore, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance, which could be a departure point for an intraday decline.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_market_going_to_test_55_ma_again_3438

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USD/JPY: NEW "WINDOW"
10:29 04.09.2017

1504509946-b11aefd46cbd97981f7919fbb1183

There's a new "Window", but we still don't have any reversal pattern. So, the price is likely going to continue falling down towards the lower "Window". If any bullish pattern arrives later on, there'll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement.

1504509946-6f960f7be62de6eefe98dfb9022b7

The last pullbacks from the upper "Window" led to form a new local low. It's likely that the market is going to test the nearest support, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/usd_jpy%3a_new_%22window%22_3439

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NZD/USD IS GATHERING STRENGTH FOR TAKEOFF
11:03 04.09.2017

Recommendations:

BUY 0.7205

SL 0.715

TP1 0.7295 TP2 0.7345 TP2 0.7395

On the daily chart, NZD/USD keeps correcting to the long-term uptrend as the β€œShark” pattern is transforming into 5-0. Bulls retain hopes for return to 61.8% and 50% of the wave CD with the following recovery of the trend.

1504512173-fb9be1d9d65d6402746f6573306cf

On H1, NZD/USD is forming the β€œwidening wedge” pattern. Another test of resistance at 0.7205 will end the process. Success will allow bulls to count on a correction to the current short-term downtrend.

1504512191-3696dc2326705fd45dfa7b732beb8

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/nzd_usd_is_gathering_strength_for_takeoff__3443

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EUR/USD: WAVE (II) IS ABOUT TO END
11:13 04.09.2017

1504512731-cda1b3d6bc46c4b42d7027c8a4d5e

There's developing wave 4, which is likely going to take the form of a zigzag. So, we could have a downward impulse in wave [c] soon. If a pullback from 1/8 MM Level happens afterwards, there'll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

1504512731-947888d575f0b0b1c67408df00fbc

Wave has been formed like a zigzag, so there's a bearish impulse in wave (i). At the same time, wave (ii) is about to end, so we're likely going to have a decline in wave (iii) of [c] during the day.

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/eur_usd%3a_wave_%28ii%29_is_about_to_end_3444

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AUD/USD PAINTED A TRIANGLE
11:22 04.09.2017

Recommendation:

BUY 0.7985 SL 0.793 TP1 0.8085 TP2 0.8335

SELL 0.7915 SL 0.797 TP 0.779

On the daily chart, AUD/USD formed a triangle. A break of its upper border will create conditions needed for an advance to 0.8000. On the other hand, it the pair quits bullish trend channels, risks of correction will strengthen.

1504513268-1db64c049cc9775b27418fd0e6b08

On H1, there’s a β€œWidening wedge” pattern. The successful test of 0.7982 will allow bulls to keep moving up. On the other hand, decline to support 0.7918 will return initiative to bears.

1504513286-ef00342837a633bda01cab6a3fe3e

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd_painted_a_triangle_3446

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GBP/USD: TRADES IN CLOUD WILL CONTINUE
12:00 04.09.2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2920, 1.2900; resistance – 1.3020.

Trade recommendations:

Buy β€” 1.2920; SL β€” 1.2900; TP1 β€” 1.2970; TP2 β€” 1.3020.
Reason: narrow bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but the lines are horizontal; the market is supported by Tenkan and Kijun.

1504515629-5838ef800660551113de2aff99712

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/gbp_usd%3a_trades_in_cloud_will_continue_3448

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AUD/USD: AUSSIE CAN’T BREAKOUT 0.8000
12:01 04.09.2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7940; resistance – 0.8000.

Trade recommendations:

Buy β€” 0.7940/50; SL β€” 0.7920; TP1 β€” 0.8000; TP3 β€” 0.8040.
Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a cancelled dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, the lines are horizontal; the prices are returned to the Cloud and supported by Tenkan, Kijun and upper border of the Cloud.

1504515630-42a68b4bfa2f0515dfbaa054e9dba

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/aud_usd%3a_aussie_can%E2%80%99t_breakout_0.8000_3449

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XAU/USD HAS SPREAD ITS WINGS
09:38 05.09.2017

Recommendation:

BUY $1321

SL $1305

TP $1351 TP2 $1386

On the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps rallying towards 200% target of the AB=CD pattern. The area of $1347-1352 acts as key resistance. Support is near $1320.4-1321.6. Bulls retain control, so buying on the pullbacks is the main strategy.

1504593446-20c6ebb86722ac92f8a505b7903a9

On H1, XAU/USD keeps forming β€œSpike and reversal with acceleration”. As long as the pair remains above the trend line of the first stage ($1290), the outlook is bullish.

1504593463-d42251f1390ba6f5631addcf2e675

More:
https://fbs.com/analytics/articles/xau_usd_has_spread_its_wings_3479

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