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Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com


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Next week’s FOMC to be USD positive - Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Richard Franulovich of Westpac, remain bullish for USD, expecting growth differential and the expected drop of ‘patience’ in next week’s FOMC meeting to boost dollar’s strength.
Key Quotes
“Global forces continue to conspire in the USD’s favour, the latest vignettes in recent days playing to the USD’s advantage including weaker China activity data, a strong US Feb payrolls, a plunge in German 10yr yields to an eye watering 20bp and renewed weakness in commodity prices (though that may be as much a reflection of USD gains).”
“A look back at USD price action going into past Fed tightening cycles suggests USD consistently gains further ground into the first hike but thereafter consolidation is the order of the day.”
“We stick with a bullish outlook as policy and growth differentials between the US on the one side and China, Japan and the Eurozone on the other side continue to break in the USD’s favour.”
“Next week’s FOMC meeting likely to play USD positive with the Fed likely to drop “patience” from their lexicon and June Fed lift off odds likely to firm further.”
Mar 12,2015
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USD/CAD dips to 1.2620 on data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback remains on the defensive camp on Thursday, now dragging USD/CAD to session lows around 1.2620.
USD/CAD weaker post-US calendar
The pair is extending its descent after overnight peaks around 1.2770 against a backdrop of a softer dollar in the global markets. Spot gained further selling momentum after disappointing data from the US retail sales, dropping 0.6% MoM in February and 0.1% excluding the Autos sector.
In the Canadian docket, New Housing Price Index contracted 0.1% in February and gained 1.4% on a yearly basis.
USD/CAD key levels
At the moment the pair is retreating 0.79% at 1.2648 with the next support at 1.2617 (low Mar.11) ahead of 1.2598 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.2574 (low Mar.9). On the upside, a breakout of 1.2772 (high Feb.2) would open the door to 1.2800 (2015 high Jan.30) and then 1.2845 (high Mar.13 2009).
Mar 12,2015
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AUD/USD peeks above 0.7700
FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD extended its recovery from nearly 6-year lows and climbed to 3-day highs above 0.7700 as the greenback continued to correct following strong gains.
The US dollar retreated further following weaker than expected US retail sales figures, sending AUD/USD to a high of 0.7729 before the 200-hour SMA offered resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7695, recording a 1.65% gain on the day.
The recovery of the Australian dollar was also helped by solid domestic employment data published during the Asian session. The Australian economy added 15.6K new jobs in February versus 15.0K expected, while the jobless rate inched down to 6.3%, matching forecast.
AUD/USD technical levels
In terms of technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.7729 (daily high) and 0.7750 (Mar 3 low). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.7660 (100-hour SMA) and 0.7600 (psychological level) ahead of 0.7560 (2015 low Mar 11).
Mar 12,2015
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EUR/USD potential test of parity by mid-year – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Strategist Richard Franulovich at Westpac, the pair could attempt a visit to the parity level by the mid of the present year.
Key Quotes
“EUR looks very wounded here as both cyclical and structural forces continue to weigh”.
“Pockets of better data (especially business surveys) in response to the sharp easing in Eurozone financial conditions will likely prove to be nothing more than opportunities to sell EUR, as policy differentials continue to swing in the USD’s favour and net fixed income outflows pick up pace”.
“Would watch 10yr bund yields for near term direction. Price action of late suggests concerns about lopsided positions are overdone with EUR/USD seemingly intent on testing parity before mid-year”.
Mar 12,2015
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USD/JPY climbs back above 121.00
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following a quick drop to the 120.70 area at the beginning of the session on the back of weak US retail sales data, USD/JPY managed to bounce off lows and climbed back above the 121 mark.
The dollar was already under pressure before data as it goes through a corrective phase. USD/JPY bottomed out at 120.68 but managed to bounce toward the 121.25 zone in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 121.20 zone, still down 0.19% below its opening price.
USD/JPY technical outlook
“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have crossed below their midlines, but lost the bearish potential and turned flat in negative territory”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “A price acceleration below the daily low however, may push the pair further down, eyeing then an approach to the critical 120.00 figure”.
Bednarik locates next support levels at 120.65, 120.30 and 120.00, while she places resistances at 121.40, 121.85 and 122.30.
Mar 12,2015
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EUR/USD stays below 1.0600 after US PPI
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD is extending its consolidation phase around the 1.0600 level, as the shared currency takes a breather following a sharp sell-off seen over the last days.
EUR/USD bottomed out at 1.0499 on Thursday, posting its lowest level in 12 years, but managed to trim some losses and settled in a narrow range where it has spent the last sessions. EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.0570 area, still 0.6% lower on the day.
Lower than expected US producer prices for February had little impact on the dollar as investors’ attention turns to the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Last week’s strong non-farm payrolls data fueled speculations the Fed could raise rates sooner than expected, lifting the greenback and weighing on US equities.
On the data front, US producer price index unexpectedly dropped by 0.5% in February, missing expectations of a 0.3% increase. The core index, which excludes food and energy also fell by 0.5%, undershooting +0.1% of forecast.
Mar 13,2015
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Banxico intervenes to calm markets – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank Eduardo Suarez assessed the recent measures by the Mexican central bank, Banxico.
Key Quotes
“MXN decoupled from broad‐based USD strength yesterday, following the FX Commission’s announcement of additional measures to stabilize the peso market”.
“Banxico will now be selling US$52mn in the spot market on a daily basis in order to provide dollar liquidity to the local market”.
“These sales will not be tied to a specific level, and will take place in addition to the US$200mn that Banxico has been offering at a minimum price since December 2014”.
“Despite these additional mechanism, Banxico remains a “net FX reserve accumulator”, due to the USD it purchases from oil sales. We were surprised by the FX intervention announcement, given we only expected verbal signs that authorities were watching markets for signs of deteriorating liquidity”.
“We don’t think this intervention size is by any means a trend changer, but it should serve to calm markets by signalling stronger measures could be expected if markets break‐down”.
Mar 13,2015
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EUR/USD parity call....June 2015 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Fed expected to start tightening in mid-year 2015, Chris Turner of Rabobank, views that EUR/USD might hit the targeted 1.00 level much earlier – probably June.
Key Quotes
“We are moving closer to the first Fed tightening since the onslaught of the global financial crisis. The FOMC meeting of 18 March should help frame expectations on whether the Fed would indeed start tightening in June as we expect.”
“We doubt that investors, speculators or corporates are prepared to stand in the way of a powerful dollar bull trend.”
“Unless the Fed surprises by suggesting that dollar strength has been sufficient to tighten monetary conditions and delay the tightening cycle (which we very much doubt), EUR/USD may well hit our year-end 1.00 target much earlier.”
“Indeed, we are bringing forward our EUR/USD parity call to June 2015 and see the low point in this cycle of 0.90 being hit summer 2016.”
Mar 13,2015
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EUR/USD parity call....June 2015 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Fed expected to start tightening in mid-year 2015, Chris Turner of Rabobank, views that EUR/USD might hit the targeted 1.00 level much earlier – probably June.
Key Quotes
“We are moving closer to the first Fed tightening since the onslaught of the global financial crisis. The FOMC meeting of 18 March should help frame expectations on whether the Fed would indeed start tightening in June as we expect.”
“We doubt that investors, speculators or corporates are prepared to stand in the way of a powerful dollar bull trend.”
“Unless the Fed surprises by suggesting that dollar strength has been sufficient to tighten monetary conditions and delay the tightening cycle (which we very much doubt), EUR/USD may well hit our year-end 1.00 target much earlier.”
“Indeed, we are bringing forward our EUR/USD parity call to June 2015 and see the low point in this cycle of 0.90 being hit summer 2016.”
Mar 13,2015
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EUR/USD hits fresh 12-year lows sub-1.0500
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD came under renewed pressure and hit fresh 12-year lows sub 1.0500 as the dollar picked up momentum during the last trading session of the week.
Despite disappointing US PPI and consumer confidence figures, the dollar received another boost and dragged EUR/USD and GBP/USD to multi-year lows during the New York session.
EUR/USD broke decisively below the 1.05 mark and fell to its lowest level since January 2003 at 1.0481. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.0520 area, recording a 1.07% loss on the day and on track for its fourth week of losses.
EUR/USD remains on a clear downtrend amid divergent monetary policy stances between the Fed and the ECB, with the latter having launched its QE program this week. Attention now turns to the FOMC meeting next Wednesday, for clues over the timing of a rate hike.
Mar 13,2015
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Session recap: US dollar takes the week's leader board




FXStreet (Guatemala) - With the Fed approaching next week, the greenback was strong again this week and took out new yearly lows across a number of its counterparts in the FX space.


The US data was in the most part ignored today as the market piled in to the greenback. Oil tumbled, stocks dropped early session recovering somewhat in to the close, and the market continued to lay on the supply in the single currency on the back of the ECB's programme commencing this week.


EUR/USD was taken down to yet new lows and well and truly bringing in the question of 'parity' into the picture. The single bloc currency was offered into the London shift and took out 1.0510 as the US session got under way, where traders were without an appetite for the euro and scrambling for the greenback. Through the handle was a quick run of stops towards the mid point of 1.04 before recovering for a second time from areas 1.0465 and 1.0461, the low, and into a minor recovering drift into the close.


USD/CAD was strong, moving up and scoring new yearly highs also. Since the start of the year we are around 12 cents higher, and the price of oil continues to dictate the pair. WTI was circa $5 down at one point on the day with plenty of the black stuff in supply. The loonie was 1.2825 to the greenback and at its weakest point since 2009.


GBP/USD was injured in taking a heavy knock from the markets appetite for the US dollar and went from 1.4898 to 1.4698, starting the move in early London and finishing up in the US shift. There was some give back on the back of the PPI's misses and consumer confidence disappointing in the US but that was short lived by 50 pips that were faded at the upper quarter of the 1.47 handle. The pound ended up reaching the lowest level since 2010 at 1.4698.


USD/JPY was relatively steady in a tight 25 pips range while the Aussie and Kiwi were suffering the dollars come back. AUD/USD was starting 0.7712 overnight and ending with a low 0.7608 by the US close. NZD/USD was in territory circa 0.74 and then down to 0.7312 the low.


Key Data events:


Canadian Net Change in Employment (Feb): 1.0K vs -5.0k consensus


Canadian Unemployment Rate (Feb): 6.8% vs 6.7% consensus


US Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb): -0.6% vs 0.0% consensus


Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar) Preliminar: 91.2 vs 95.5 exp










Mar 14,2015

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United Kingdom CB Leading Economic Index up to 0.2% in January from previous 0%
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Mar 16,2015
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US industrial production slows down in February
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The official data released in the US today showed the industrial production expanded 0.1% in February, compared to the estimate of 0.2% expansion. The industrial production was revised lower to -0.3% in January.
Capacity utilization inched higher to 78.9%, beating the estimate of 79.5%, and up from 79.1% seen in January. Meanwhile, manufacturing production contracted 0.2% against the expectation of 0.1% growth. The January’s print was revised lower to -0.3%. The mining sector led the way lower with decline in Coal, Oil and Gas drilling, while utilities production rose.
Mar 16,2015
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Strong USD: not a concern for the Fed – BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Currency Analyst Lee Hardman at BTMU sees the Fed not concerned about the current high levels of the US dollar.
Key Quotes
“The recent strength of the US dollar will also result in investors listening closely for any change in rhetoric regarding the US dollar which may potentially impact the outlook for Fed policy”.
“At the current juncture we do not expect the Fed to signal heightened concern over the stronger US dollar, although it supports the market’s expectation for a very gradual pace of monetary tightening in the coming years”.
Mar 16,2015
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US 10-yr treasuries: short to 2.30% onto 2.52% - RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, gives the technical outlook for US-10 yr treasuries, suggesting to use any pullbacks towards the trend-line as shorting opportunities for 2.30%.
Key Quotes
“The market has broken the trend-line, implying yield downside is limited from here: it is deemed unlikely that the yield would re-visit the area below 2.00% and hence we see any pull-backs towards the trend-line as selling opportunities for 2.30% and 2.52%.”
“Our long-term view is the same: 1.61/1.78% yield was considered to be a base and 3.00% targeted for the end of 2015.”
“Price-wise 127-19+ is a key resistance, where we see a selling area, looking for a pull-back to 124-30. Stop is a break above 128-05.”
Mar 16,2015
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EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0600
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD made a brief appearance above 1.0600 at the beginning of the New York session as the euro stages a mild bounce versus its major competitors, although it failed to hold above the psychological level for long.
EUR/USD peaked at 1.0615 but quickly dipped back below 1.0600. However, the downside was contained by the 1.0560 area, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation in the absence of major indicators or news. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0580, still up 0.83% on the day and off a 12-year low of 1.0461 struck late on Friday.
The latest string of disappointing US data - industrial production and NAHB housing market index - had little impact on the dollar as EUR/USD investors' attention turns to Eurozone CPI on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Mar 16,2015
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USD/JPY consolidates in a narrow range – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that short-term technicals for USD/JPY remains bullish as the pair consolidates in a tight range after BoJ highlights CPI risks.
Key Quotes
“JPY is flat following the BoJ’s policy decision to maintain the pace of QE at 80trn. The statement tone softened the near term outlook for inflation, and comments from Gov. Kuroda hinted to the risk of a temporary ‘dip’ into deflation.”
“Domestic data have shown signs of improvement, with both leading and coincident indicators rising—the latter reaching its highest level since March 2014 to fully recover the consumption tax hike decline.”
“Near term risk centers on trade (7:50pm EST) as well as the broader tone heading into Wednesday’s Fed events.”
“USDJPY short-term technicals: bullish—signals are broadly bullish, however we note the increasingly tightened range in USDJPY following the March 12 hammer doji.”
“Support is expected at the 9 day MA (121.12) and we await a break above the March 10 high near 122.00.”
Mar 17,2015
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Long USD/CAD, target 1.30 – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Westpac Team maintains their long USD/CAD position, targeting 1.30 levels on a 1-3m horizon.
Key Quotes
“We continue to hold long USD/CAD opened at 1.2506. New lows in key energy prices, soggy growth updates out of China and likely further firming in June 2015 Fed lift off odds should be enough to keep USD/CAD well supported. 1.30 on 1-3 month horizon very achievable.”
Mar 17,2015
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Yen remains pressured – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With fiscal and monetary policies failing to pump up investment in Japan, oil continuing its slump, FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Dhwani Mehta, explains that the Yen will remain under pressure.
Key Quotes
“Japan's economy grew at an annualised 1.5% in the final quarter of 2014, missing expectations of 2.2%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew by 0.4% in December Q4 2014.”
“Although, consumer spending in the October-December quarter was revised upwards, weaker than expected capital expenditure data suggests that the fiscal and monetary policies have so far been unsuccessful to stimulate higher level of investment in the country. Capital expenditure fell 0.1% as compared to expectations of an expansion of 0.3%.”
“Moreover, falling oil prices continues to put the central bank under additional pressure. The Bank of Japan Deputy Governor, Hiroshi said that the BOJ must ease monetary policy further if cheap oil prices weaken its efforts to boost inflation expectations.”
“BOJ Nakaso noted, "Oil price falls may push down prices in the short-term but will accelerate inflation in the somewhat long-term perspective because they benefit an oil-importing economy like Japan", “We will adjust monetary policy if the price trend changes and if further action is warranted to achieve our 2 percent inflation target at an early date".”
Mar 17,2015
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EUR/NOK points downwards longer term – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at the Nordic Danske Bank expect the cross to inch higher in the near term, although in the longer horizon the NOK might drag the cross lower.
Key Quotes
“We expect Norges Bank (NB) to deliver a 25bp rate cut on Thursday”.
“NB is set to keep the easing bias by presenting a new rate path with a 50% implied probability of another rate cut before June. However, we do not expect Norges Bank to cut rates further post March”.
“The primary risk to our projection is that of NB leaving the rate unchanged. First, NB could put less emphasis on the Regional survey and more on other key figures. For instance, the import-weighted NOK is roughly 3.5% weaker than assumed in the December report. This will partly counteract the downward adjustment of the interest rate path, and also reduce the possibility of a rate cut”.
“Second, the increasing pressure in the housing market in the aftermath of the December cut could keep NB on hold until the recession is confirmed”.
“We expect EUR/NOK to bounce around the NB meeting before a trend lower in the cross constitutes. Leverage funds should look to sell EUR/NOK post the NB meeting. Corporates should hedge NOK income via option structures that maintain a profit potential”.
Mar 18,2015
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EUR/NOK points downwards longer term – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at the Nordic Danske Bank expect the cross to inch higher in the near term, although in the longer horizon the NOK might drag the cross lower.
Key Quotes
“We expect Norges Bank (NB) to deliver a 25bp rate cut on Thursday”.
“NB is set to keep the easing bias by presenting a new rate path with a 50% implied probability of another rate cut before June. However, we do not expect Norges Bank to cut rates further post March”.
“The primary risk to our projection is that of NB leaving the rate unchanged. First, NB could put less emphasis on the Regional survey and more on other key figures. For instance, the import-weighted NOK is roughly 3.5% weaker than assumed in the December report. This will partly counteract the downward adjustment of the interest rate path, and also reduce the possibility of a rate cut”.
“Second, the increasing pressure in the housing market in the aftermath of the December cut could keep NB on hold until the recession is confirmed”.
“We expect EUR/NOK to bounce around the NB meeting before a trend lower in the cross constitutes. Leverage funds should look to sell EUR/NOK post the NB meeting. Corporates should hedge NOK income via option structures that maintain a profit potential”.
Mar 18,2015
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Sterling appreciation concerns give BoE Minutes a mildly dovish tone – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the BoE Minutes, Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, notes that the central bank's view regarding the appreciation of GBP being negative for meeting inflation target gave the Minutes a dovish tone.
Key Quotes
“Perhaps the key section in the text of the Minutes was:
‘Sterling had continued to appreciate, primarily versus the euro. . . Although monetary policy at home and abroad was only one of the many factors that influenced the exchange rate, especially in the near term, there was a risk that divergent monetary policy trends, as well as stronger prospects for growth in the United Kingdom than in the euro area, might continue to put upward pressure on the sterling exchange rate.’
‘This had the potential to prolong the period for which CPI inflation would remain below the target and exacerbate the risk that lower expectations of inflation might become more persistent.”
“This echoes the Governor’s observations last week that the currency’s trade-weighted appreciation might require a longer period to elapse before the MPC raises Bank Rate.”
“The MPC’s collective position remains that ‘it was more likely than not that Bank Rate would increase over the next three years’ but there is little to suggest any sense of urgency in terms of pulling the trigger.”
Mar 18,2015
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BoE’s view on sterling strength to slow EUR/GBP decline – Rabobank




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, argues that the EUR/GBP trend might slow down after BoE expressed concerns regarding sterling strength, and further forecasts the pair to head towards 0.70 on a 12-m view.


Key Quotes


“While sterling could find some support from an anticipated upward revisions to growth from the OBR and from a related slight loosening of austerity from the government, the pound is likely to remain far more focussed on central bank policy and the tone of economic data.”


“This morning’s release of UK labour data has brought another encouraging drop in February jobless claims (-3kK). However, it also brought news of a subdued 1.8% 3 m y/y increase in average weekly earnings. Even though the very weak level of CPI inflation ( at 0.3% y/y) suggests that real wages are still pushing higher, the low level of pay increases suggests there could be a feed-through into subdued demand and thus inflation could stay lower for longer.”


“In addition, the minutes of the March BoE MPC flag another downside risk to inflation.”


“In view of the risk that CPI inflation could stay lower for longer, the Bank is now sounding a touch more dovish than it did in its February Inflation Report.”


“For now we stick with the forecast that the BoE will not hike rates before February 2016 and will continue to monitor the tone of both wages and inflation data closely.”


“By making it clear that the Bank is sensitive to the role played by the exchange rate in influencing monetary conditions the MPC should slow the pace of the EUR/GBP downtrend.”


“That said, in view of the ECB’s QE policy and the relative buoyancy of UK growth we continue to exchange EUR/GBP to grind lower this year towards the 0.70 area on a 12 mth view.”










Mar 18,2015

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Session Recap: USD recovers post-FOMC
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is reclaiming part of the recent sharp losses, intensified yesterday after markets interpreted the FOMC statement and the press conference by Janet Yellen as unexpectedly dovish.
The dollar is markedly up in the G10 space, advancing almost 2% vs. the euro and sending EUR/USD back to the low-1.06s after climbing as high as 1.1060 in the wake of Yellen’s presser on Thursday. GBP/USD is retaking the mid-1.4800s after bottoming out in the vicinity of the 1.4800 handle earlier on, and USD/JPY is looking to assault 121.00.
Markets in Euroland remain in the positive territory with the exception of the German DAX, while Gold is up almost 1% around $1,160 and the barrel of WTI is down nearly 4% in sub-$43 levels.
Mar 19,2015
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USD/CAD still targets 1.30 by mid-year – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair could reach the key 1.30 handle by the mid of the current year, according to Strategist at Westpac Richard Franulovich.
Key Quotes
“USD/CAD may well trade down to key support around 1.2350 but suspect it will be a grudging move and CAD will lag much of the G10, sluggish energy prices the key factor likely to hamper CAD prospects”.
“1.30 still the target mid-year as the implosion in Canada’s energy patch increasingly bleeds into the broader economy and likely triggers a dovish tilt by the BoC at upcoming meetings”.
Mar 19,2015
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Brent Crude back below USD 55.00/barrel
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent crude prices fell below USD 55/barrel on Thursday after Kuwait backed the OPEC’s decision to keep production levels steady back in November, thereby bringing the concern of supply glut back into the spotlight.
Brent prices as well as WTI Crude prices had rallied sharply on Wednesday after the slightly dovish statement from the Federal Reserve led to a broad based weakness in the US dollar. However, gains were erased today; partly due to a rebound in the US dollar and partly due to comments from Kuwait’s Oil Minister.
"We don’t want to lose our share in the Market," Ali al-Omair, Kuwait’s Oil Minister told reporters on Thursday. Meanwhile, there is also a possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran, which could add up to 1 million barrels of oil supply to the market.
The threat of supply glut led Brent Crude lower to USD 54.51/barrel, while WTI Crude fell to USD 45.18/barrel.
Brent Crude Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 55.67 (10-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 56.61 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 53.09 (Feb. 11 low) and 52.50 levels.
Mar 19,2015
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I really love the way OctaFX presents daily analysis as it’s not a big deal to provide it but to do it in style like you guys do is purely amazing. I can easily compare it to the biggest paid service in the world but still this will be much better than anything else.

I started trading on my own but now I am so much addicted to these analysis that the day I am not able to see it (that rarely happens) I prefer just to stay away from the market because I know I will mess it up but due to this I am in complete control over everything and I never have to worry over the results.

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EUR/USD: break above 1.0710 might target 1.0750/60 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, gives the technical outlook and key levels for EUR/USD.
Key Quotes
“The 4 hours chart for the EUR/USD shows that the price holds above a mild bullish 20 SMA a few pips below the current level, whilst the indicators stand flat above their midlines.”
“A price acceleration through 1.0710 should lead to an upward continuation towards the 1.0750/60 price zone, albeit selling interest will likely surge around this last.”
“To the downside, 1.0650 is the immediate support, with a break below it favoring a test of the 1.0600/10 price zone.”
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EUR/USD consolidating below 1.0700
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency keeps the positive ground vs. the greenback on Friday, with EUR/USD hovering over sub-1.0700 levels.
EUR/USD focus on Greece… again
Greece is back. The euro, however, seems to bypass the developments coming from Greece and the European Leaders’ Summit in Brussels so far, remaining in a consolidative pattern in the upper band of 1.0600 so far.
Greece is looking to deliver a list of reforms in order to get much needed funds to face upcoming repayments, although uncertainty seems to prevail so far amongst the rest of EU officials, turning the outcome unpredictable, as usual.
EUR/USD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is up 0.27% at 1.0688 and a breakout of 1.0800 (psychological level) would target 1.0920 (high Mar.19) and then 1.0940 (21-d MA). On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 1.0650 (hourly low Mar.20) followed by 1.0635 (100-h MA) and finally 1.0613 (low Mar.19).
Mar 20,2015
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EUR/USD long for 1.1000 – GrowthAces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The GrowthAces Research Team maintains their bullish outlook on EUR/USD, targeting 1.1000.
Key Quotes
“We wrote in our Wednesday’s Trading Strategies Update released after the Fed statement and yesterday’s Market Overview that the USD rally might be over and we maintain our opinion despite overwhelmingly one-sided market positioning.”
“Our previous long taken at 1.0750 hit the stop-loss level. The position was taken too early, we did not anticipate strong USD recovery yesterday. However, this recovery does not change our outlook that the bearish EUR/USD is over. We got long again at 1.0670 today and set the target at 1.1000.”
“Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 1.0796 (hourly high Mar 19), 1.0920 (session high Mar 19), 1.0940 (21-dma)
Support: 1.0650 (hourly low Mar 20), 1.0613 (low Mar 19), 1.0580 (low Mar 18)”
“EUR/USD: long at 1.0670, target 1.1000, stop-loss 1.0500, risk factor *”
Mar 20,2015
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GBP/USD rises above 1.48
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The sell-off in the US dollar gained momentum ahead of the US session, taking the GBP/USD pair well above 1.48 levels.
GBP/USD rises above hourly 50-MA
The pair rose above the hourly 50-MA and 100-MA located at 1.4804 and 1.4790 respectively. Apart from the broad based sell-off in the USD, the pair also benefitted from the moderate rise in the UK gilt yields, the 10-year Gilt yield currently trades one basis point higher at 1.543%.
With no major US data due for release today, the pair could continue to rise on unwinding of short positions ahead of the weekend.
GBP/USD Technical levels
The pair currently trades at 1.4820; up 0.45% for the day. The immediate resistance is seen at 1.4857 (hourly 200-MA), above which gains could be extended to 1.49 levels. On the flip side, a break below 1.4790 (hourly 100-MA), could send the pair down to 1.4722 levels.
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EUR/USD climbs near 1.0800
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upbeat momentum around the euro is picking up pace now, lifting EUR/USD to the area of 1.0800, or session highs.
EUR/USD firmer on Greece
The pair managed to break above the 1.0700 handle today after a brief congestion pattern in the upper-1.0600s. The single currency derived support from the optimism around Greece, while EU officials continue to wait for the list of reforms. It is worth recalling that the EU needs to approve the Greek programme in order to habilitate bailout funds.
EUR/USD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is up 1.23% at 1.0789 and a breakout of 1.0800 (psychological level) would target 1.0920 (high Mar.19) and then 1.0940 (21-d MA). On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 1.0650 (hourly low Mar.20) followed by 1.0635 (100-h MA) and finally 1.0613 (low Mar.19).
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USD Index target at 104.54 for 2015 – BNPP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - he BNP Paribas Team maintains a bullish outlook on USD, and further gives the 2015 and 2016 forecast for the USD Index.
Key Quotes
“We remain USD bulls despite the FOMC’s recent caution. The USD will continue to benefit from higher US yields against a backdrop of ECB and BoJ QE.”
“We are beginning to see a pickup in real capital flow support for the USD and expect this to accelerate.”
“USD Index Forecast: 104.54 in 2015, 102.83 in 2016.”
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EUR/USD technicals favour the upside – FXStreet




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that technicals remain in favour of upside moves for EUR/USD, with the pair correcting higher, eyeing 1.0800 levels.


Key Quotes


“The EUR/USD pair advances to fresh daily highs above the 1.0750 level during the current European session, holding firm near the high, and with a mild positive tone in the 1 hour chart, as the price advances above a slightly bullish 20 SMA, whilst the RSI indicator heads strongly higher around 62 and the Momentum indicator holds above the 100 level, albeit lacking strength at the time being.”


“Earlier in the day, data showed that the current account of the euro area that recorded a surplus of €29.4 billion in January, although German PPI decreased by 2.1% yearly basis. There are no scheduled releases in the US for today, albeit a couple of FED members will be speaking in different events, and may affect the greenback should they refer to upcoming Central Bank moves.”


“The 4 hours chart technical picture also favors the upside, as the price extends above a bullish 20 SMA whilst the indicators maintain a strong upward momentum above their midlines.”


“Support levels: 1.0745 1.710 1.0660”


“Resistance levels: 1.0790 1.0830 1.0880”









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US Session recap: Another shaky day for the greenback




FXStreet (Guatemala) - The US session had good movements across the currency board, with a soft dollar at the outset for it to climb back and recover some lost ground on the day.


In markets on Friday, the sell-off came on when the Euro got some support on speculation Greece will receive an infusion of bailout money. The dollar was in decent supply and only managed to save some face in the closing hours.


Oil went through $46 per bbl and the Euro topped out at 1.0881. The yellow metal made a high of $1,188 from $1,169 while the S&P 500 was trading up over 1% while in the end, the index rose 18.65 points, or 0.9 percent, to 2,107.92.


EUR/USD is continuing its northern path in a chop, yet outside of the bearish channel from 1.1300 and in the upper half of the recent range on the minor bounce from current yearly lows made this month. 1.08 is supporting the pair on drifts to the downside and leaves the major on a positive note into next week.


The Canadian dollar had a good run on the weakness of the greenback that was in full supply, despite the unhealthy retail sales and in-line CPI's from the Canadian economy. so, 1.2725 down to 1.2543 was about the price action of today, one way, with a little stubbornness at 1.2600.


GBP/USD was also a one sided story, from 1.4760 to 1.4990 with resistance taking the major back to 1.492520 support. While the Aussie and Kiwi ended the weak the strongest vs the greenback.


AUD high was 0.7846, it is ending the week testing 0.7800 and despite being down to 0.7610, 20 pips of the week's low yesterday, it ends the week closing at 0.7775. The Kiwi is at 0.7563, tucked below the weeks high made today at 0.7592.










Mar 21,2015

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Switzerland should implement foreign currency QE – IMF
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) board member Thomas Moser said today that the bank is open to the idea of foreign currency asset purchases suggested by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In its annual assessment, the IMF proposed that Switzerland should “ease monetary policy further" to bolster growth and reduce risks related to "very low inflation".
The IMF states, “Purchases could consist of foreign currency assets, and perhaps some domestic assets - though scope for this is more limited - with the pace of purchases adjusted as necessary in response to developments. In addition the policy rate should be maintained at its current negative level for now, as this has been helpful in reducing franc appreciation and deflationary pressures.”
Mar 23,2015
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EUR/USD rises above 1.09
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair rose to a fresh daily high of 1.0935 as markets anticipate an upbeat economic view from the ECB President Draghi in his testimony before the European Parliament in Brussels.
EUR/USD: Trades above a key Fib level
The pair rose above 1.09, which also happens to be a 23.6% retracement level of the up trend from 1.0461 to 1.1032. The EUR is being bought as markets believe the ECB president is likely to be more upbeat on the economy in his testimony today. Moreover, Draghi is likely to cheerlead the effects of the ECB’s QE but warn that reforms are necessary to make the recovery extended and long-lasting.
The ECB has already revised up its economic outlook, and Governing Council member Christian Noyer said today that asset purchases are an “important and clear signal” that monetary policy will remain expansionary over an extended period.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
At the moment, the pair is trading at 1.0924; up 0.97%. The immediate resistance is seen at 1.10, above which the pair could rise to 1.1033 levels. On the flip side, a break below 1.09 could push the pair back to 1.0850 levels.
Mar 23,2015
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Yellen acknowledged that USD strength partly reflected the strong US economy – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team, comments on the view of Yellen on USD strength in the post FOMC statement press conference, highlighting the Fed Chairman’s remarks on USD with respect to inflation, exports and the overall US economy.
Key Quotes
“Contrary to what some had expected, there was no mention of the dollar in the FOMC statement itself. Most of Yellen’s remark about the dollar during the press conference were not instigated by the Chair, but by inquiring reporters, many of whom later wrote stories about the increased importance of the dollar in setting Fed policy.”
“Yellen accepted that the rise in the dollar was one of the factors that were slowing exports Reporters did not press further: If the dollar was one of the factors, what were the others?”
“If they had, we suspect Yellen would have explained that the IMF and World Bank had cut their forecasts for world growth. We think that the data bears out our contention that the best thing for US exports is stronger world growth.”
“Yellen also noted that the strength of the dollar was dampening inflation through import prices. Many participants completely ignored the rest of her comments about this, and in particular that this was a transitory development.”
“Few reports covering the Fed thought it worth mentioning that Yellen acknowledged that the dollar’s appreciation was partly a reflection of the strength of the US economy.”
“We suggest that Yellen’s testimony before Congress in late February sheds light on Fed’s thinking. She indicated that the dampening impact of the rise of the dollar is broadly offset by the fall in oil prices.”
“The claim that Yellen has waded into the so-called currencies wars is far from the mark.”
“Indeed, we expect that the dollar will be stronger not weaker when the Fed raises interest rates.”
Mar 23,2015
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NBH cuts 15bp and likely initiates a short easing cycle - TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With NBH cutting rates by 15bp, Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, feels that this is just the beginning of a short easing cycle, further predicting 30bps cuts in upcoming meetings.
Key Quotes
“In line with the nearly unanimous consensus expectations, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) cut the base rate today. However, differently from the median of expectations and our forecast, both looking for a 20bp cut, the Bank announced a cut of 15bp, which we think is preparatory to further easing down the line.”
“The EURHUF dropped by 0.3% seconds after the announcement as the market was positioned for a cut today, while 1yr IRS remained nearly unchanged at around 1.79%. The pair is currently trading at 302.”
“We expect another 30bp of easing in total at the two upcoming meetings. The market seems to be priced for an easing cycle of 50bp by August, which suggests a very slow pace. But this also suggests that a moderately dovish message should be fully priced in.”
Mar 24,2015
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EUR/USD might see further declines below 1.0920 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares the technical outlook for EUR/USD, noting that the pair might see additional declines if it breaks below the immediate short-term support at 1.0920.
Key Quotes
“The EUR/USD surged to 1.1002 following the release of strong Manufacturing and Service figures across Europe confirming the sense the area is growing lately. Nevertheless, the pair was unable to break above the critical psychological figure, also the 50% retracement of these last two months decline.”
“US inflation data ticked slightly higher in February, up 0.2% as expected, whilst excluding food and energy, the year-to-year figure rose above forecasted up to 1.7%. Still subdued, the initial market reaction saw the EUR/USD diving down to 1.0936 before quickly bouncing up to a fresh daily high of 1.1029, before regaining the downside.”
“Early in the US session, the pair is under selling pressure, and the 1 hour chart shows that the price is breaking below its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head lower around their midlines.”
“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators are retracing from extreme overbought levels, supporting some further declines, particularly on a break below 1.0920 the immediate short term support.”
“Support levels: 1.0920 1.0890 1.0865“
“Resistance levels: 1.0955 1.1000 1.1040”
Mar 24,2015
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GBP/USD break below 1.4850 to target 1.4770 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, GBP/USD might extend its decline towards the support at 1.4770 if the pair breaks below the immediate support at 1.4850.
Key Quotes
“The pair has been trading quite rage bound ever since the day started, although the greenback seems ready to extend its advance in the short term, as the 1 hour chart shows that the price is unable to overcome its 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators aim lower below their midlines.”
“In the 4 hours chart hover, the price is still holding above a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators turning lower, but still above their midlines.”
“A break through 1.4850 the immediate support, should lead to a stronger decline, which can extend down to the 1.4770 support.”
“Support levels: 1.4850 1.4810 1.4770”
“Resistance levels: 1.4925 1.4950 1.5000”
Mar 24,2015
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Eurozone PMI complements the improving tone for the economy – BBH




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing today’s Euro area data release, the Brown Brothers Harriman Team mentions that the above consensus Eurozone composite PMI print at 54.1 complements the improving tone of the economy.


Key Quotes


“The general improving tone in the euro area continued before the ECB launched its more aggressive asset purchase program. The composite March reading was at a new cyclical higher of 54.1.”


“After a soft patch last year, the German economy has accelerated. The manufacturing PMI (flash) rose to 52.4 from 51.1. The consensus was for 51.5. Services rose to 55.3 from 54.7. This was also a bit better than expected."


“France showed a mixed picture. The manufacturing PMI rose to 48.2 from 47.6but was slightly lower than expected. The service sector slipped to 51.7 from 52.2.”


“In general, the decline in interest rates, oil, and the euro should see the regional economy gain better traction.”


“The euro has tested the $1.10 level. The post-FOMC high was set near $1.1045. Look for a break of this to signal the next leg up in what we continue to regard as corrective gains. Initial support is seen ahead of the 20-day moving average which comes in near $1.0885 now."










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EUR/USD might slip to 1.0830 – FXStreet




FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, technicals suggest that EUR/USD might fall towards 1.0830 levels before fresh demand for the single currency emerges.


Key Quotes


“The daily chart shows the pair has failed for the second time to sustain gains above 1.1 levels. Moreover, the daily candle has dipped into the red after clocking a high of 1.1027, which indicates further losses ahead. The daily RSI and the hourly RSI is bearish as well.”


“Any bounce from the current level of 1.0924 could be restricted around 1.0950-1.0970 levels. Moreover, a fresh demand for Euros is unlikely to be seen so long as it fails to confirm a close above 1.10 on the 4-hour chart.”


“Given the bearish daily and hourly RSI and the overbought 4-hour RSI, the pair could move to its 5-DMA located at 1.0830 before a fresh demand for the Euros kicks-in.“










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  • MrDennis changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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