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US CPI preview: We are going negative – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Jim Reid, Research Analyst at Deutsche Bank, suggests that all eyes will be on the US this afternoon, with the September CPI print the highlight.

Key Quotes

“Consensus estimates are for a soft headline reading (-0.2% mom) which will be enough to drag the YoY back into deflationary territory at -0.1%. Estimates for the core are running at +0.1% mom, with the YoY rate unchanged at +1.8%.”

“Away from this, we’ll also get initial jobless claims, October empire manufacturing, average weekly earnings, the Philly Fed business outlook print and the September monthly budget statement later tonight.”

“Fedspeak wise we are due to hear from Bullard and Dudley, both due to speak at 3.30pm BST, followed by Mester later tonight (due 9.30pm BST). On the earnings front, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are the banks due to report in the early afternoon, while Schlumberger (after the close) will be worth keeping an eye on as an early indicator into the energy sector.”






Oct 15,2015
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AUD rebound approaching end as RBA rate cut expectations reincarnated - BNP

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, note that the Australia’s employment data disappointed market expectations with a contraction of 5.1k during September (consensus: +9.6k) which is likely to make AUD vulnerable as RBA rate cut expectations continue to build (a rate cut for Feb ’16 is now fully priced).

Key Quotes

“The impact on the AUD has been negative but relatively muted due to the current market environment – one of lower US yields and broad USD weakness – being supportive for the commodity currencies.”

“Furthermore, the volatility of Australia’s employment data limits the scope for this surprise to be a game changer for the AUD. To put the 14.7k miss into context, the standard deviation of surprises of this data over the past five years is 25k and the standard deviation of the revisions is 21k.”

“The risk-on environment in recent weeks has caused AUDUSD to have moved back towards its STEER™ after appearing oversold. From here this means that any rebound in US yields and the USD is likely to weigh negatively on AUDUSD.”







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EUR/USD drops as European stocks rally

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bid tone on EUR weakened, making way for a correction in the EUR/USD pair after the European stocks cheered the drop in the Fed rate hike bets.

Offered near 1.15

The spot ran into offers near 1.1495 as the European stocks rallied, with the pan-European blue chip Euro Stoxx 50 index rising 1%. The drop to a session low of 1.1430 also marked a failure to sustain above 1.1475 (161.8% expansion of March low-March high-April low).

Later in the day, the US CPI could alter Fed rate hike bets and sentiment in the stock markets and accordingly influence the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 1.14, under which the spot could target 5-DMA at 1.1369.a break below the same could see the pair test 10-DMA at 1.1316. On the other side, a break above 1.1475 (161.8% expansion of March low-March high-April low), could see the pair test offers at 1.15 levels.







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USD selling, across the board as bulls run for cover - Investec



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Investec, note that after the US Retail Sales came in softer than expected, US Dollar selling was witnessed across the board as investors were likely concerned that if consumer spending remains muted, it will be difficult for inflation to recover in the US with a backdrop of subdued energy prices.

Key Quotes

“Given recent gains in US jobs and the strength of the housing market, the spending background should be more buoyant. The US Dollar weakened across the board after the release and in the Fixed Income markets, Bonds are now only pricing in a 32% chance for a 2015 Fed rate hike, with a first hike not fully priced in until July 2016. The theme continued overnight where the US Dollar continued to soften both across developed and emerging markets."








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Abenomics first two arrows are a success – Japan’s Suga


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Japanese government’s Chief cabinet secretary Suga, while speaking to Bloomberg, hailed the first two arrows – fiscal stimulus, monetary easing - of Abenomics as a success.

Suga added that the third arrow – structural reforms – will take more time over mid-long term. Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is the most important part of third Arrow, said Suga, while stating further that TPP agreement means Japan economy can take a leap forward.



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China said to consider yuan-Swiss franc direct trading link - Bloomberg

FXStreet (Mumbai) - As reported by Bloomberg, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is planning to start direct trading between the yuan and the Swiss franc.

Thus, the Swiss franc would become the seventh major currency to be exchangeable directly for yuan in Shanghai, joining the US, Australian and New Zealand dollars, the British pound, the Japanese yen and the euro.

China is accelerating efforts to bolster global yuan usage before an International Monetary Fund (IMF) review of its reserve- currency basket next month.

Earlier this year, the PBOC extended Switzerland a 50 billion yuan ($7.9 billion) quota under the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor program, which allows yuan raised offshore to be used to buy securities in China’s domestic markets.



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GBP/USD: offered again at 100-DMA


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Another attempt to take out 100-DMA in early Europe ran into offers again, pushing the GBP/USD pair back to 1.5470 levels.

Weekly gain on cards

Sterling is on track to score its second weekly gain on the back of an upbeat UK wage data and dismal US data. The spot had hit a low of 1.52 earlier this week, following which a spike in the buying interest pushed the pair to a weekly high of 1.5509 levels.

Moreover, the USD was smoked right from the start of the week. Consequently, profit taking ahead of the weekend may keep the cable under pressure today. The US industrial production and consumer confidence figure may do little to change the direction in the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5486 (100-DMA), above which the pair could target 1.5509 (previous day’s high). A break above the same would expose 1.5568 (38.2% of Jul 14-Apr 15 plunge). On the lower side, a failure to take out 100-DMA could push the spot back to 1.5404 (50-DMA).



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USD/JPY well supported around 118.60 – OCBC


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, the area around 118.60 could provide decent support in the pair for the time being.

Key Quotes

“A mixed to heavy undertone for USD-JPY may persist with near term support seen at around 118.60 although JPY underperformance on the crosses may invite bottom picking in the pair”.

“At this juncture, 120.00 may prove to be a hard-top barring headline risks”.



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USD/CHF risks a pullback to 0.9358/0.9260 – Commerzbank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pairs could re-visit the area of 0.9358/0.9260 in the near term.

Key Quotes

“USD/CHF’s still oscillates around the 200 day ma at .9518 and near term risk remains for losses to the .9358/.9260 five month support line and recent low, from where we would expect to see signs of recovery”.

“Rallies will find initial resistance at the .9646 13 October high”.





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ECB comes in focus as the much anticipated meeting approaches - MUFG


FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, Research Analyst at MUFG, suggests that we had been pretty convinced that the ECB would not take any action at the forthcoming meet but have to admit we are not as convinced after reading the comments made by ECB Governing Council member Nowotny in a speech in Warsaw yesterday where he was pretty pessimistic in regard to current economic conditions in Europe.

Key Quotes

“If the dollar does advance sooner rather than later, it may well be versus the euro given the monetary policy meeting is taking place next Thursday. In admitting that the ECB was “clearly” missing its inflation target he stated that additional “structural instruments” were required in order to get growth going in the euro-zone.”

“There was a strong message to governments to do more in regard to structural reform but the reality in the euro-zone for some time has been that the onus has rested on the ECB to take action. While Nowotny and probably most ECB Council Members are frustrated with that, the ECB may soon feel obliged to take additional action.”

“The comments from Nowotny appear more grim than his previous comments and that may well reflect the evidence of renewed economic weakness in Germany. The 5.2% plunge in exports and weak factory orders and industrial production highlight the vulnerability of Germany to external demand weakness. This of course is the country where perhaps fiscal stimulus should now be implemented but constitutionally Germany’s hands are tied – a fact that must surely be fuelling the disinflationary impetus in the euro-zone as a whole.”

“Our view at this point is that the ECB will refrain from any action next week but will be a little more explicit in indicating that they are closer to additional easing with an eye on the December meeting.”

“By then it will be clearer whether the FOMC will act or not in December and the ECB will have a much clearer view of broader financial market conditions and whether the “unwarranted tightening” of the monetary stance has persisted. But Nowotny has thrown a degree of greater uncertainty into next week’s meeting and hence the euro is unlikely to advance much ahead of that key event.”





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USD: Dudley sets conditionality on a 2015 Fed lift-off - MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Derek Halpenny, Research Analyst at MUFG, notes that the US Fed’s Dudley did repeat that a 2015 rate increase was his current view however his comments were certainly a bit more nuanced with his rate timing view conditional on his forecast being achieved.

Key Quotes

“Given the explicit comments from FOMC Governors Brainard and Tarullo for a delay in a rate increase to 2016, the markets were very focused on Vice Chair Dudley’s speech yesterday.”

“He did then also say that the recent evidence points to the economy slowing. So really as usual, the FOMC is data dependent and hence the payrolls reports on 6th November and 4th December will be crucial as will consumer spending data for the month of October, released in November.”

“Cleveland Fed President Mester also spoke yesterday and there was no surprise in her comments which have been consistent in calling for a rate increase to take place this year.”

“Our sense though is that the dollar remains vulnerable to further weakness given the US economic data is likely to remain mixed for now. While we believe the Fed should be lifting rates anyway, the financial markets continue to price more willingly the prospect of a delay into 2016 and short-term yields suggest the dollar is prone to further weakness. With little in the way of top tier data now until the start of November, the dollar is unlikely to derive support from developments in the US.”





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Majority of Fed’s voting members favour a 2015 lift-off - RAbobank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Philip Marey, Senior US Strategist at Rabobank, suggests that if we look at the reactions of the voting members of the FOMC, there still seems to be a large majority that would like to hike before the end of the year. In the end, their case will depend on the data that we are going to see before the meeting on December 15 and 16, and that is still a lot, the analyst adds.

Key Quotes

“The US CPI data for September were better than expected by the market. Headline inflation slowed down to 0.0% in year-on-year terms, from 0.2% in August, but the consensus expectation of negative inflation (-0.1%) was averted.”

“What’s more, core inflation – which excludes the volatile food and energy prices – unexpectedly rose to 1.9% from 1.8%. These data should bolster the Fed’s confidence that inflation will return to the 2% objective over the medium term.”

“This was reinforced by the decline of US initial jobless claims to 255K after 262K a week before. This matches the 2015 low reached earlier in mid-July. Note that 255K is not only the lowest point of this year, but in fact the lowest since 1973. Despite the slowdown in the world economy, US businesses are keen to keep their personnel on board.”

“Meanwhile, the first two US business surveys for October both indicated a deterioration, although at a milder pace than in September. However, the Empire manufacturing index (-11.4) and the Philly Fed index (-4.5) both fell short of consensus expectations.”

“New York Fed President William Dudley, a permanent voter on the FOMC, acknowledged that the economy is slowing. Nevertheless, he still favors raising rates later this year if his forecasts are met.”





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