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Speculators trimmed neat bearish positions in treasuries last week


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators trimmed their overall bearish positions last week for the first time in six weeks.

The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, primarily traded by large speculators and hedge funds, witnessed a weekly change of +30,949 net contracts to total net position of -8,529 contracts in the data reported for September 22nd. Long positions in 10-year futures advanced by 33,712 contracts along with a small rise in the short positions by 2,763 contracts.

The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) cut back on their overall bullish positions to a total net position of +93,345 contracts.




Sep 28,2015
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Speculators trimmed neat bearish positions in treasuries last week


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bullish attempts in the cross should find a tough barrier around 0.7480.

Key Quotes

“EUR/GBP continues to probe its long term downtrend channel resistance line at .7399”.

“Resistance extends from here to .7510. - the August peak lies at .7421 and the next higher May peak is found at .7482 and this should cap the currency pair”.

“Minor support comes in around the 200 day moving average at .7298”.



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Too early to talk about expanding QE – ECB’s Lautenschlaeger


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said it is too early to talk about expanding the bank’s QE program.

Lautenschlaeger added that the ECB basic scenario is still intact and the bank must look through current volatility. Earlier today, she was on the wires stating that Some euro zone banks don't comply with governance standards.

"Our initial findings indicate that a number of banks, while meeting national requirements, do not comply with international best practices with regard to governance," Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who represents the ECB's supervisory arm on the bank's board, said in remarks for a speech to be delivered in Milan.



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USD/CAD sidelined near 1.3330, US data eyed



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar alternates gains with losses vs. its American neighbour at the beginning of the week, with USD/CAD hovering over 1.3330/35.

USD/CAD attention to US calendar

The pair remains within the daily range above the 1.3300 key handle on Monday, in an apparent consolidative pattern following the correction lower from recent fresh 11-year peaks beyond the 1.3400 mark.

In the meantime, the pair will remain under pressure in light of the upcoming string of US data releases: Personal Income/Spending, PCE, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index; all against the backdrop of speeches by Fed’s Tarullo, Evans, Williams and Dudley.

USD/CAD levels to consider

The pair is now losing 0.01% at 1.3335 and a breach of 1.3303 (low Sep.25) would aim for 1.3233 (low Sep.23) and finally 1.3216 (low Sep.22). On the other hand, the initial resistance lines up at 1.3356 (high Sep.25) followed by 1.3418 (high Sep.24) and then 1.3495 (high Jun.29 2004).





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AUD/USD points to range bound near term – OCBC



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, sees the pair in a consolidative pattern in the short term.

Key Quotes

“Expect the tide of global macro/risk sentiment to potentially sway the AUD this week with range trading expected to prevail in the interim”.

“On the CFTC front, note a jump in net leveraged AUD shorts in the latest week. In the near term, the lower boundary for the pair is expected into 0.6895 with 0.7120 likely to limit for now”.








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USDCAD: Confined to tight ranges – TDS


FXStreet (Delhi) – Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of Currency Strategy at TD Securities, notes that the USDCAD is confined to tight ranges alongside most other major currencies today, holding within the 1.3315/1.3345 zone since the opening in Asia overnight.

Key Quotes

“Spot continues to run above our estimate of Fair Value, currently around 1.2932, as oil prices remain stable but interest rate differentials have moved further in Canada’s favour over the last several days.”

“We continue to look for a pullback to the 1.3150/1.3200 area over the next several days to close some of USDCAD’s valuation gap to underlying fundamental drivers. This, we think, could set the stage for the next stage of the advance of the broader uptrend, however. Domestically, the Canadian data calendar remains quiet until Wednesday’s monthly GDP reading for July. There, we are in line with the consensus in looking for +0.2% m/m, in what would be only the second consecutive positive readings this year-to-date.”





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Euro: Set to bounce before the ECB – SocGen

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, suggest that there are several factors suggesting that the next three weeks could offer the opportunity to trade a EUR/USD tactical rebound towards 1.14-1.15. The technical picture is asymmetrical on the bullish side, Eurozone PMIs are resilient, the dovish ECB is certainly discounted, the risk of a US government shutdown won’t help the dollar, and the EM sell off is prompting investors to put cash in safe currencies.

Key Quotes

“We recommend a 3W topside exotic trade to get leverage between 1.13 and 1.1550.”

“Volkswagen’s woes should not be a lasting euro engine: The scandal certainly has weighed on the euro lately, via the threat that the crisis hitting the world’s second-largest carmaker could hit the German economy. After a dramatic 30% fall to 2012 lows, Volkswagen shares seem to have stopped falling and traded volumes are now diminishing.

“Dovish ECB probably in the price: The ECB stance is certainly the main bearish euro factor for the coming weeks. Our economists expect the ECB to be dovish (weaker inflation outlook), but with still ample evidence of resilience in the euro area economy, as witnessed by resilient September PMIs, it is still too early for the ECB to act. Fed inaction and China weakness are not necessarily a signal for the ECB to do more.”







Sep 29,2015
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EUR/JPY challenges lows around 134.50

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Japanese yen remains well bid at the beginning of the week, taking EUR/JPY to the area of session lows near 134.55/50.

EUR/JPY supported around 134.00

The pair keeps the bearish tone for the second consecutive session so far albeit rebounding from yesterday’s troughs in the 134.00 neighbourhood. The global sentiment remains tilted to the risk-off trade so far, sustaining the bid tone around the safe haven JPY while underpinning the drop from September tops beyond the 137.00 handle.

Next on tap data wise for the pair will be EMU’s Economic Sentiment and Consumer Confidence, preceding the German flash CPI for the current month. Back to Japan, Retail Trade and Industrial Production figures are due tomorrow.

EUR/JPY relevant levels

As of writing the cross is retreating 0.20% at 134.55 and a break below 133.94 (low Sep.28) would expose 133.16 (low Sep.23) and finally 132.76 (low Sep.7). On the other hand, the initial hurdle lines up at 134.91 (high Sep.28) followed by 135.39 (high Sep.25) and then 136.14 (high Sep.21).








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Rate hike coming in 2015, Fed’s Dudley and Williams - Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that the two Fed officials pointed towards 2015 lift-off in their speeches yesterday while Chicago Fed President Evans said that mid-2016 will be appropriate timing for the rate hike cycle to begin.

Key Quotes

“Although noting that his expectation on timing was ‘not calendar guidance’ and instead ‘depends on the data’, the NY Fed President said that ‘my expectation is that we probably will raise interest rates later this year’, citing confidence that the inflation target will be hit sometime next year.”

“This was followed by a much more dovish tone from Chicago Fed President Evans who said that while the Fed is getting closer to liftoff, still noted that he has mid-2016 in his projections. In particular Evans noted that in his view it will be around that time that ‘the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation’.”

“Meanwhile and speaking after markets closed, San Francisco Fed President Williams reiterated his call for liftoff sometime this year, although noted risks to this from dollar appreciation and stuttering growth abroad.”








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IMF: Inching closer to include renminbi in SDR basket – MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Hardman, Currency Strategist at MUFG, notes that the FT has reported today that the IMF is creeping closer to including the renminbi in their Special Drawing Rights basket as the US and other major shareholders are likely to back the move unless the IMF staff’ makes a surprise recommendation against the renminbi’s inclusion.

Key Quotes

“The remaining technical hurdles are reportedly concerns over China’s heavy-handed intervention in markets and poor communication of reforms which are causing nervousness at the IMF.”

“The caution has reportedly prompted some IMF staff to raise the possibility that the vote by the fund’s board could be delayed from November into early next year to give China more time to deliver reforms and build credibility.”

“However, a potential delayed decision would raise questions over whether China is receiving special treatment. Chinese President Xi Jinping reassured US officials last week that there is no basis for the renminbi to have a devaluation in the long run and thanked the US for their conditional support for China’s bid to have it included in the SDR basket.”



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CNY and CNH gap is shrinking – BBH

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, note that in the overnight session, the CNH once again outperformed the CNY and is closing the gap that opened between the two currencies since the August devaluation.

Key Quotes

“Now the two currencies are trading roughly at 6.3650 against the dollar. This is important for the functioning of the onshore/offshore markets, for hedging, as well as for meeting the IMF’s easily accessible criteria for joining the SDR.”

“In addition, the CNH interbank offer rate spiked to a record (since the fixing began in 2013) 8.73%, while short-dated hibor rates rose by as much as 200 bp. One interpretation for this spike is to see it as a consequence of the USD/CNH selling. Unlike the onshore market, the PBOC can’t replenish the immediate shortage of CNH. So unless the HKMA steps in with repos, we can get a spike in rates.”



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Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) down to -1.5% in August from previous -1.1%

FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.



Sep 30,2015
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EUR/USD at session lows while European equities rise

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair fell to fresh session lows of 1.1212 levels as the funding currencies like the EUR are being ditched amid the rally in the major European equity markets.

Supported by hourly 100-MA

The pair found support at its hourly 100-MA located at 1.1213 levels and recovered to trade at its hourly 200-MA located at 1.1218 levels. The EUR; already weak due to the drop in German retail sales, extended losses on account of a 1.2% gain in the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index.

The investors now await the Eurozone CPI figure, which is likely to show the cost of living in the 17-nation currency bloc dipped in September. The EZ CPI would be followed by the monthly US ADP employment report. Heading into these key reports, the pair is likely to track the sentiment in the major European markets.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.1232 (hourly 50-MA), above which the pair could target 1.13 levels. On the other side, support is seen at 1.1212 (hourly 100-MA) and 1.1177 (200-DMA).




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USDCAD: GDP increase likely to break string of five consecutive declines – TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that Canadian industry-level real GDP is forecast to have increased by 0.2% m/m in July and this forecasted gain would build on the 0.5% monthly pop in June which in turn broke the streak of five consecutive monthly declines.

Key Quotes

“Growth should be supported in large part by the manufacturing industry and the temporary lift from the PanAm games. Activity elsewhere is expected to be more subdued, with a soft performance expected from the real estate sector and in retail sales.”

“The rebound in growth to start Q3—currently tracking around 2.2-2.5%—will help eclipse the Bank of Canada’s very conservative 1.5% annualized forecast which will provide ample justification to keep the overnight rate on hold.”




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GBP/JPY above hourly 100-MA after UK GDP data





FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/JPY pair quickly jumped to trade above its hourly 50-MA located at 182.44 levels even though the annualised Q2 GDP figure was revised lower by the UK Office for National Statistics.

Technical correction amid risk on rally

Sterling is witnessing a technical correction after the ONS left the growth rate unchanged at 0.7% q/q. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is under pressure on account of the risk-on rally in the European equity markets. Even the US index futures are trading in the green.

Consequently, the stage appears set for the GBP/JPY to witness a technical correction after having shed more than 700 pips in last six trading sessions.

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

The pair clocked a high of 182.70, before falling back slightly to trade around 182.50. The immediate resistance is located at 182.53 (5-DMA), followed by a major hurdle at 183.31 (Sep 29 high). On the other side, support is seen at 180.95 (Tuesday’s low) and 180.36 (Sep 7 low).








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EUR/USD muted on EMU’s CPI





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The European currency kept the composure after the release of EMU’s CPI figures, with EUR/USD hovering over the 1.1230/20 band.

EUR/USD in red above of 1.1200

The pair remained within the recent range despite consumer prices in the euro area have disappointed expectations, with CPI contracting at an annual pace of 0.1% vs. forecasts for a flat reading and down from July’s 0.1% advance. The core print stayed put at 0.9%, matching estimates.

Further releases have seen the unemployment in the euro bloc ticking higher to 11.0% during August, up from the 10.9% previous and initially forecasted. Next of relevance in the pair will be the ADP Employment Change (195K exp.) followed by the speech by Chairwoman J.Yellen.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is losing 0.18% at 1.1227 and a breakdown of 1.1194 (low Sep.29) would aim for 1.1146 (low Sep.28) and then 1.1105 (low Sep.23). On the other hand, the initial resistance aligns at 1.1281 (high Sep.29) followed by 1.1296 (high Sep.24) and finally 1.1330 (high Sep.21).








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AUD/USD could grind lower towards 0.69 – OCBC




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Antipodean pair could slip towards the 0.69 handle in the near term,, according to FX Strategist at OCBC Bank Emmanuel Ng.

Key Quotes

“The global growth/inflation environment continues to remain less than constructive for the likes of the AUD”.

“At this juncture, the risk of the pair losing its foothold at 0.7000 and degenerating towards 0.6900 remains apparent ahead of the global PMIs on Thursday”.









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GBP/USD extends the UK GDP-rally towards 1.5200




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bid tone around the GBP/USD pair remains intact in the mid-European trades, as the cable continues to benefit from the improving risk-on moods and also from solid economic growth confirmed in the UK.

Holds above hourly 50-MA

The GBP/USD pair trades 0.24% higher at fresh session highs of 1.5188, finding good support at hourly 50-MA. The cable bounced-off from close to multi-month lows and rallied more than 50 pips after the markets cheered the latest UK Q2 GDP report (confirmed at 0.7%).

Moreover, the favourable risk conditions amid rallying European stocks, boosts the appetite for riskier currencies such as the GBP. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 jumps nearly 2.50% while the UK’s FTSE is up 2%.

Meanwhile, the upcoming US datasets including the US ADP employment report and the Chicago PMI will influence GBP/USD. While the Fed Chair Yellen’s speech will be also closely eyed.

GBP/USD Levels to consider

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5208 (Sept 29 High) above which gains could be extended to 1.5243 (Sept 28 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5126 (Sept 29 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.5100 levels.








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Germany: Robust labour market is a success theme for 2015 - ING




FXStreet (Delhi) – Carsten Brzeski, Research Analyst at ING, notes that the latest numbers of German unemployment shows that the success story of the German labour market does not only hold for a couple of lucky ones but is actually spreading across the entire market.

Key Quotes

“German unemployment dropped by a non-seasonally adjusted 87,600 in September, bringing the total number of unemployed down to 2.708 million. In seasonally-adjusted terms, unemployment increased by 2,000, leaving the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate unchanged at 6.4%.”

“The late-summer revival of the German labour market turned out to be softer than normal. In fact, today’s September numbers are the worst September performance of the German labour market since 2002. However, in our view, this is probably the effect of the summer vacation ending in September in more regional states than normally and not a sign of a structural weakening of the labour market.”

“Last year, the number of people working in so-called “normal” employment conditions, ie mainly full-time working hours, increased by more than 450 000 jobs. In the same period, the number of low-wage jobs came down. A clear indication that despite constant headline numbers, the German labour market is still evolving positively.”

“Looking ahead, and despite the uncertainty stemming from the Volkswagen crisis, the prospects for the German labour market remain bright. All in all, the German labour market will remain an important growth driver this year and beyond. The challenges ahead, however, are much bigger than the relatively dull and constant data from today’s report suggest.”








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USD/JPY rangebound within 118.60-120.90 – OCBC




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - FX Strategist at OCBC Bank Emmanuel Ng expects USD/JPY to remain in a consolidative range between 118.60 and 120.90.

Key Quotes

“Look to the 3Q 15 Tankan late Wed/early Thursday with the surprise -0.5% mom contraction in Aug industrial production likely to keep the pair supported within a 118.60-120.90 range barring a further meltdown in risk appetite”.

“In the interim, any sustained departure from the 120.00 handle may require either risk appetite or USD-centric headlines”.








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China slowdown to negatively impact our Autumn Forecast - EU Dombrovskis




FXStreet (Mumbai) - In an interview with the German daily Handelsblatt on Wednesday, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis noted that the economic slowdown in China is expected to pose downside risks to the Union’s H2 2015 economic forecasts.

Key Quotes:

"The external growth risks have increased."

"The economic slowdown in China, the problems with Ukraine and Russia and the instability in the Middle East are risk factors. We will consider these in our Autumn Forecast which comes out in November."










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BOJ: Investors awaiting the policy response in lieu of risk of recession – BBH


FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, suggest that investors in Japan are focused on the likely policy response to the downdraft in the data.

Key Quotes

“The risk of a recession (defined as two quarters of contraction) is heightening speculation of a supplemental budget (though Prime Minister Abe has played this down) and changes in the BOJ's asset purchases.”

“A recent Bloomberg survey shows that about a third of the respondents expects the BOJ to step up its efforts (from JPY80 trillion a year) as early as next month.”






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Gold drops below EUR 1000/Oz levels


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices in the EUR terms are down for the fourth consecutive session, trading below the psychological EUR 1000/Oz mark.

Safe haven bids drop amid stock rally

The stock market rally in Europe ahead of the quarterly closing ensured the traditional safe havens like Gold, Treasuries suffered losses. Gold in EUR terms dropped to a session low of EUR 1003.41/Oz levels as the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index rallied more than 2%.

Moreover, gold prices in the USD terms weakened more than 1% on account of a strong US ADP report and risk on rally stocks. However, the EUR remained relatively resilient, leading to a drop in Gold/EUR prices. The metal in EUR terms topped out at its 100-DMA last week before falling today below its 50-DMA at 1001.64 levels.

Gold/EUR Technical Levels

The immediate support is located at 987.32 (Sep 18 low), under which the prices could drop to 979.12 (Aug 26 low). On the other side, resistance is seen at 1001.63 (50-DMA) and 1011.72 (hourly 200-MA).







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EUR/USD keeps lows around 1.1140 on PMIs


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency remains entrenched in the negative territory in the second half of the week, taking EUR/USD to the mid-1.1100s so far.

EUR/USD lower on risk-on trade

Auspicious prints from the Chinese manufacturing PMI have sparked a wave of risk appetite early in the day, hurting the demand for EUR and prompting spot to extend the ongoing correction lower to the 1.1140/35 band.

The final figures of the manufacturing PMIs in Euroland for the month of September have come in mixed today, intensifying the downside pressure on the pair.

In the data space, the ISM Manufacturing is taking centre stage across the pond, seconded by Markit’s manufacturing PMI, Initial Claims and the speech by FOMC member Williams.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is losing 0.27% at 1.1143 and a breakdown of 1.1116 (low Sep.25) would aim for 1.1105 (low Sep.22) and then 1.1057 (low Aug.12). On the other hand, the initial resistance aligns at 1.1260 (high Sep.30) ahead of 1.1281 (high Sep.29) and finally 1.1296 (high Sep.24).








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UK manufacturing PMI at three-month low in September


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The headline seasonally adjusted Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) eased to 51.5 in September, down from an upwardly revised reading of 51.6 in August.

Key Points

New order growth dropped to the joint-weakest pace in a year.

Cost pressures shifted further to the downside in September due to lower commodity prices. Input price deflation accelerated to its steepest since February 1999 and remained among the fastest registered in the near 24-year survey history.

The Sterling exchange rate also added to the bearish pressure on input prices.

Average selling prices were reduced for the first time in three months during September.








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EUR/USD recovers to 1.1165 as EU stocks rally fizzles


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair found fresh bids just below the 100-DMA then located at 1.1140 levels and attempts a weak recovery as the European stocks take a breather in their rally, with markets digesting a set of dismal PMIs from the Euro zone.

Heads towards daily highs

The EUR/USD pair trades -0.18% lower at 1.1157, recovering from fresh weekly lows struck at 1.1136 levels post the PMIs. The offered tone around the EUR/USD pair eased a bit as the stocks on the European indices halted their upsurge and retreated from highs, in a delayed reaction to the weak German and EU manufacturing PMI reports.

The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 now trades 0.77% higher at 3,124, retreating from 3,142 .50 highs. While the DAX also drops from 9,786 highs and trades +0.46% at 9,700 levels.

On the data space, the final manufacturing PMI for the euro zone came in at 52.0 points in the ninth month of the year, and below August's reading of 52.3, although matched estimates. While Germany’s final PMI for manufacturing sector fell to 52.3 in Sept, down from August's final reading of 53.3 points, against 52.5 expectations.

Later in the day, attention turns towards a slew of US macro data including the ISM manufacturing survey, weekly jobless claims and construction spending data for fresh incentives.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1179 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1204 (50-DMA) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1100 (Psychological levels) below which it could extend losses to 1.1079 (200-DMA) levels.








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Mixed data from Eurozone and UK PMI’s - TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Strategy at TD Securities, notes that the recently released PMI data from the Eurozone and PMI were mixed bag of sorts.

Key Quotes

“The final euro area reading of 52.0 in September was unchanged from the flash estimate (vs 52.3 in August), suggesting relatively unchanged momentum in manufacturing activity.”

“On a Europe-wide country basis, however, the manufacturing PMIs were fairly mixed in September, with relatively large monthly declines posted in Italy (-0.9), Germany (-1.0), and Spain (-1.5) (the UK fell just 0.1). Conversely, Sweden eked out a +0.1 increase on the month, France managed to gain an impressive 2.3, and Norway was the real surprise, jumping by 4.0 (with gains across the board in the sub-indexes). All these countries except for Norway were in expansion territory in August.”

“The UK release, while remaining relatively flat on the month, suggested some underlying risks to the manufacturing sector there, with employment falling below the 50 threshold for the first time in two and a half years.”





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GBP: Narrower current account deficit and stronger growth comes to rescue - MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Halpenny, Currency Strategist at MUFG, suggests that the UK pound has underperformed during the current period of heightened risk aversion which has pushed it lower than justified by relative economic fundamentals in our view but the recently released stronger GDP data and narrower current account deficit are likely to support the GBP.

Key Quotes

“The still favourable relative economic fundamentals were evident again yesterday in the latest UK GDP report which revealed an upward revision to growth. The economic recovery in the UK since the global financial crisis was stronger than initially recorded leaving real GDP at the end of Q2 at 5.9% higher than the peak prior to the global financial crisis compared to the previous estimate of 5.2%.”

“There was also a more favourable development in the UK’s current account deficit which narrowed more sharply than expected to 3.6% of GDP in Q2 from 5.2% of GDP in Q1. The narrowing was mainly driven by the trade deficit which reached its lowest level since 1998. The trade balance can be erratic and likely exaggerates the underlying improvement in the current account deficit, which remains elevated and a long-term concern. We still see scope for the pound to regain lost ground ahead.”






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USD/CAD supported around 1.3250

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar remains on the right footing vs. its American counterpart on Thursday, with USD/CAD finding support around the mid-1.3200s.

USD/CAD looks to US docket, oil

Spot is losing ground for the second session in a row as the Canadian dollar keeps deriving support from a better tone around crude oil prices. Collaborating with the downside, the greenback is struggling to find direction today, extending the consolidative pattern across the board.

Moving forward, the critical ISM Manufacturing and Initial Claims are due in the US calendar, while the RBC Manufacturing PMI is due in Canada.

USD/CAD levels to consider

At the moment the pair is now losing 0.33% at 1.3270 and a break below 1.3250 (low Oct.1) would open the door to 1.3233 (low Sep.23) and finally 1.3219 (low Sep.22). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.3334 (high Oct.1) ahead of 1.3412 (high Sep.30) and then1.3457 (high Sep.29).







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EUR/USD extends the rebound to 1.1170

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency keeps recovering ground vs. the dollar on Thursday, now pushing EUR/USD to the area of 1.1165/70.

EUR/USD a tad better on US data

The pair has trimmed further its earlier losses after US Initial Claims have ticked higher to 277K in the week ended on September 25th, missing forecasts at 270K and up from 267K recorded in the previous week.

In the meantime, market participants keep waiting for the more relevant ISM Manufacturing, expected at 50.6 for the last month, followed by the speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is losing 0.14% at 1.1159 and a breakdown of 1.1116 (low Sep.25) would aim for 1.1105 (low Sep.22) and then 1.1057 (low Aug.12). On the other hand, the initial resistance aligns at 1.1260 (high Sep.30) ahead of 1.1281 (high Sep.29) and finally 1.1296 (high Sep.24).






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USD/JPY backs away from 120 and surrenders gains

FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY failed to sustain gains and pulled back from above 120.00 toward fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session.

USD/JPY peaked at 120.26 during the Asian session but came under pressure and surrendered daily gains, sliding to a fresh low of 119.60 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.66, 0.18% below its opening price. However, overall USD/JPY continues to trade within a narrow range, unable to set a longer-term direction.

US initial jobless claims rose to 277K in the latest week, above the 270K expected. However, data had virtually no impact on the dollar as investors attention turn to nonfarm payrolls tomorrow. Later on the session. the ISM manufacturing survey will be released with expectations at 50.6 versus 51.1 the previous month.

USD/JPY levels to watch

As for technical levels, next supports are seen at 119.60 (Oct 1 low) and 119.21 (Sep 24 low). On the flip side, short-term resistances could be found at 120.34 (Sep 30 high), 120.58 (Sep 28 high) and 120.87 (200-day SMA).







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NZD: Commodity price index posts first gain in six months – Deutsche Bank

FXStreet (Delhi) – Darren Gibbs, Chief Economist at Deutsche Bank, notes that the ANZ index of prices for New Zealand’s main commodity exports rose 5.5% mom in September in world price terms – the first increase since March.

Key Quotes

“As expected the increase was led by the dairy sector (average prices rising 15.1% mom), with partially offsetting contributions from price declines for meat, horticultural, forestry and seafood commodities.”

“The index was still down 18.2% yoy but should show some further improvement in October as rising dairy prices continue to feed through. With the NZ dollar weakening in September the NZD-denominated index rose 9.3% mom and was 2.7% higher than a year earlier.”






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EUR: ECB’s rate reductions can lower long-term yields – Goldman Sachs



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Goldman Sach’s, suggest that the policy rate instrument in the Euro area has a sizeable impact on long-end rates, especially in the current environment of forward guidance and the ECB rate reductions can lower long-term yields as a supplement to QE (even if further rate cuts are not our base case expectation).

Key Quotes

“Our estimated impact on the 10-year swap rate from a 100bp monetary policy shock rises from around 55bp-65bp to 75bp-100bp when we consider the period since July 2013, where ECB forward guidance has been in place.13 Hence, central bank communication may enhance the effect of monetary policy shocks on long-term rates.”

“The ECB may wish to ease further on the back of falling oil prices, which are dragging down headline inflation and longer-term inflation expectations, and concerns about weakening global EM demand. A 10bp reduction in the deposit rate – and assuming this lowers the 2-year swap rate by a similar amount – would, on our estimate, imply a fall in the 10-year risk free rate in Europe of about 7bp-10bp. A 30bp cut (to -0.50%14) would imply a 20bp-30bp reduction in the 10-year risk free rate.”

“In comparison, 10-year risk free rates fell around 10bp during the ECB press conference on January 22 when QE was announced.5 This suggests that even a 10bp deposit rate cut may be a non-negligible supplement to ECB QE. Of course, given that overnight rates in the Euro area are already negative, the scope to reduce short-term policy rates is limited.”






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EUR/USD forecast: all eyes on US Payrolls – Commerzbank and Rabobank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is trading on the softer side on Friday, hovering over the 1.1170 area ahead of US Payrolls for the month of September (203K exp.).

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, argued spot “has managed to bounce off the 55 day ma at 1.1152 today. The rally will ideally terminate 1.1184/1.1200 and the risk remains for a re-visit of the current September lows at 1.1105/1.1088. Failure at 1.1088 would trigger a move to 2015 uptrend at 1.0968.This remains a key break down point”.

Furthermore, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley added “a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on September 24 strengthened the odds in favour of a rate hike from the FOMC by the end of the year, in line with our view. Simultaneously the market is speculating that the ECB may be prepared to increase its asset purchasing programme, potentially by the end of the year. In essence this re-establishes the theme of interest rate differentials bearing down on EUR/USD in the coming months and we have maintained our forecast that EUR/USD can head lower towards 1.08 on a 6-months view”.






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EUR/GBP: spike in Sterling quickly erased



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Sterling saw a modest spike on the back of a strong UK construction PMI, pushing the EUR/GBP pair to a low of 0.7355, before recovering to trade around 0.7365 levels.

Rejected at 0.74

The EUR/GBP pair was rejected earlier today at 0.7397 following which it fell to 0.7370 and extended losses further after the UK construction PMI rose to a 7-month high in September. Though the pair has recovered slightly from its daily lows, it is largely unchanged on the weekly basis.

Whether the pair will end the week with gains or losses depends on the US non-farm payrolls report due for release later today.

EUR/GBP Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is located at 0.7400 (weekly 50-MA), above which the gains could be extended to 0.7436 (weekly high). On the other side, support is seen at 0.7350 (10-DMA) and 0.7227 (50-DMA).






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USD/JPY: Trades above 120.00, eyes US payrolls report


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD/JPY strengthened in Europe on account of risk-on in equities, but awaits the US non-farm payrolls report to see a breakout from the symmetrical triangle formation on the daily chart.

Focus on US data

The pair has been squeezed hard in the symmetrical triangle formation, heading into the payrolls report, which is expected to show the economy added 203K jobs in September. The August print is also expected to be revised higher.

Depending on the payrolls number, the pair could witness a violent breakout from the symmetrical triangle formation. The sentiment on the Wall Street after the payrolls release could also come into play later today.

USD/JPY Technical Levels

At 120.14, the immediate resistance is seen at 120.41 (July 8 low), above which the pair could rise to 120.87 (200-DMA). On the other side, support is located at 119.78 (daily low) and 119.05 (Sep 18 low).






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US: Non farm payroll forecast – Danske Bank


FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, suggest that today's key event is the US is non-farm payroll report and they expect a slowdown in job growth in September to 180,000 and even though this is slower than the recent trend, it is still enough, if sustained, to put additional downward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Key Quotes

“Over the past three months, the US economy has added, on average, 221,000 jobs per month - a pace that cannot be sustained in an economy where potential labour force growth is only around 150,000 per month and even lower if we do not see an increase in the labour participation rate.”

“In our view, job growth will need to drop below the 160,000 mark before the Fed will see it as an obstacle to starting the tightening cycle later this year. In terms of the unemployment rate, we expect the rate to stay unchanged at 5.1% in September but to head below 5% by year-end.”








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NZDUSD: Bullish bias for the week ahead – Westpac


FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that we have flipped to a bullish bias for the week ahead and if today’s break above 0.6455 is sustained, then the 0.6600 area should be targeted.

Key Quotes

“NZ data has been upbeat lately, notably dairy prices which look set to rise again at this week’s GDT auction. In addition, US data has not been compelling enough for markets to price in a rate hike this year.”

“3 months ahead: The next major target area is 0.62, a level which provided support during the middle of 2009. The two main factors expected to contribute to NZD/USD weakness during the next few months are RBNZ easing (we expect the OCR to fall to 2.5% by year end and eventually to 2.0%) and eventual Fed tightening. Disappointments on either of these fronts would call into question our multi-month bearish view.”

“1 year ahead: Our 1 year ahead forecast is 0.62, based partly on the OCR being cut to 2.0%.”








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Global growth forecasts cut by World Bank – Deutsche Bank


FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that the World growth forecast for 2015, 2016 and 2017 have also been cut to 2.5%, 3.0% and 3.1% from the previous 2.9%, 3.2% and 3.2%, respectively by World Bank.

Key Quotes

“World Bank has reduced its growth forecast for China just ahead of the annual IMF/World Bank meeting in Peru later this week (9-11 Oct). The World Bank now expects China 2015 GDP to come in at 6.9% vs 7.1% forecasted in April. The Bank now sees China growing at 6.7% and 6.5% in 2016 and 2017 respectively. China will likely be a key meeting agenda this time. The World Bank has also reduced 2015 growth forecasts for Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand.”









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USD: US payroll growth first time below 2% in last one year – SocGen


FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, notes that the US payroll growth peaked at 2.34%y/y in February and the slowdown continued in September, taking the growth rate below 2% for the first time in over a year.

Key Quotes

“The post-WW2 average is also 1.9% and the turn is hardly dramatic (though softening wage growth in goods-producing sectors is worrying) but the possibility that the US economic cycle has now peaked is going to be much debated. What would that mean for the dollar?”

“The market verdict since mid-day Friday is pretty clear as the dollar and yen have fallen while emerging market and high-beta G10 currencies have bounced. But is that the right response in a world lacking an alternative growth engine if the US does slow?”







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EUR/USD clinches 1.1250 on PMIs


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - He single currency has started the week on the right footing vs. the greenback, now lifting EUR/USD to fresh session tops in the 1.1250/60 band.

EUR/USD eyes on PMIs

While market participants are still digesting the miserable prints from last Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls in the US economy (142K), the final figures from Services PMIs in Euroland has taken centre stage during the European morning, with both German and EMU readings coming in below expectations. Still in the euro area, next on tap will be the Sentix index ahead of EMU’s Retail Sales.

Spot is posting gains for the third consecutive session so far, as global markets keeps pushing back expectations of a Fed’s lift-off later in the year, which remain the main drag of the dollar so far.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.34% at 1.1251 and a breakout of 1.1318 (high Oct.2) would target 1.1330 (high Sep.21) en route to 1.1373 (high Sep.14). On the flip side, the immediate support lines up at 1.1207 (low Oct.5) followed by 1.1150 (low Oct.2) ahead of 1.1135 (low Oct.1).




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JPY: All roads leading towards BoJ monetary policy - MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, suggests that the yen has weakened modestly in the Asian trading as investor risk sentiment has improved initially as dampened Fed rate hike expectations have for now outweighed the negative implications for the global growth outlook from the weaker payrolls report and in addition to that, Yen weakness also reflects some speculation that the BoJ could ease monetary policy further at their policy meeting this week.

Key Quotes

“The Bloomberg survey of economists captured the recent dovish shift in BoJ policy expectations. The survey revealed that 17 out of 36 economists now expect the BoJ to ease monetary policy further this month. The majority (15) expect further easing at their meeting on the 30th October with only a couple expecting further easing as early as this week.”

“It has been reported that the BoJ would like to assess more information before deciding to implement further easing. The Nikkei has reported that the BoJ may push back the current timeframe of 1H FY2016 to achieve their 2% inflation target when it is likely to lower its inflation and growth forecasts at the end of the month.”



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Brexit on cards, if Brussels doesn’t give substantial reforms - Investec

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Investec, note that the Daily Telegraph is reporting that UK Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Britain will vote to leave the EU if Brussels doesn’t give in to “substantial” reforms.

Key Quotes

“Prime Minister David Cameron also said he would 'rule nothing out' if he failed to secure Britain the deal in Europe he feels they deserve, implying he could campaign for a Brexit if his terms are not met by Brussels - although sceptics would argue that Cameron would likely water down his requests before outright campaigning to leave the single market.”






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Japan: August core machinery orders down, may turn negative in Jul-Sep quarter - Nomura



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, note that the Japanese Core machinery orders (private sector, excluding orders for ships and from electric power companies) in August 2015 fell 5.7% m-m, which is a much weaker result than the consensus forecast (Bloomberg survey median) for growth of 2.3%.

Key Quotes

“Jul-Aug orders were also down 11.3% versus the Apr-Jun average, raising the prospect of Jul-Sep orders turning negative q-q for the first time in five quarters.”

“While we think the pace of quarterly contraction is colored by a reactive decline to major orders from the steel industry in May, we would note that Jul-Aug average orders were still down 7.2% versus the Apr-Jun average even after steel industry orders have been stripped out.”



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UK: August trade and construction data awaited – Lloyds Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Jonathan Thomas, Senior Economist at Lloyds Bank, suggests that following somewhat tepid UK manufacturing output data for August, markets will be looking for this morning’s August construction and trade figures to provide some reassurance that the momentum of Q3 GDP has not slowed markedly from its 0.7% Q2 print.

Key Quotes

“July saw construction output unexpectedly tumble by 1.0% on the month following a 0.9% rise in June. Nonetheless, survey-based measures, including the PMI and BoE Agents’ scores, indicate that the near-term outlook remains moderately upbeat and we expect a 0.4% pickup on the month.”






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BOJ easing coming this October amidst uncertainty– Goldman Sachs



FXStreet (Delhi) – Naohiko Baba, Research Analyst at Goldman Sachs, suggests that in the middle of large global uncertainty, BOJ is likely to ease further in its forthcoming policy meeting on October 30.

Key Quotes

“We estimate that the BOJ will significantly lower its FY2015 real GDP growth forecast to around +1.0% yoy from +1.7% as of July, and lower its inflation forecast to around +0.3% from +0.7%. We also expect it to slightly lower its FY2016 price outlook.”

“Kuroda’s comments seem to be calculated to accommodate either more, or no more, easing. While strongly affirming the effects of the BOJ’s unprecedented easing, Governor Kuroda appears to be drawing various lines of defense considering the possibility that the BOJ may need to ease further in the near future.”

“It appears to be closely watching the direction to be taken by the third Abe Administration, which has just been inaugurated.”

“BOJ’s main options are extending the duration of its JGB purchases and increasing ETF purchases.”






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US: FOMC minutes kept 2015 lift-off expectation alive – ING



FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, suggests that the recent FOMC minutes had kept 2015 rate hike expectations alive.

Key Quotes

“Although the October labour market report drove a stake into the heart of forecasts for an October hike, the minutes from the September FOMC meeting made it clear that for most members, 2015 remains on track, and the October labour report should be seen as a “miss”, rather than a negative outcome, which resulted in no improvement in the Fed’s Labour market conditions indicator, rather than a step backwards.”

“The key phrase in the text seems to be “Many members said that the improvements in labour market conditions met, or would soon meet one of the Committee’s criteria for beginning policy normalisation”. Further falls in the unemployment rate in the months ahead, and hopefully some return to payrolls trends closer to 200K than we have seen recently would help drive that commitment to normalisation further.”

“But one thing above all else would prompt the Fed to sit up and re-evaluate their cautious stance, and that is wages growth. Whilst this remains subdued, there is still a group within the Fed that believes that payrolls gains and unemployment falls mask the true, and weaker state of the US labour market. If wages start to rise, this view will be very difficult to maintain. And rates will rise promptly if they have not begun to do so already.”






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USD/JPY keeps highs near 120.20



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Japanese yen is depreciating across the board at the end of the week, taking USD/JPY to session peaks in the 120.15/20 area.

USD/JPY boosted by risk appetite

The dovish tone from the FOMC minutes on Thursday morphed into positive news for Asian equities today, adding further downside pressure to the Japanese currency.

Market participants continue to push back expectations for a Fed’s lift-off at some point later this year (traders are currently betting on Q1 2016), giving further wings to the riskier assets and undermining any bullish attempts in the yen.

USD/JPY levels to watch

As of writing the pair is gaining 0.16% at 120.12 and a breakout of 120.57 (monthly high Oct.5) would open the door to 121.10 (55-day sma) and finally 121.41 (200-day sma). On the downside, the immediate support aligns at 119.65 (Fibo 61.8% of 125.28-116.16) followed by 118.68 (low Oct.2) and then 116.16 (post-PBoC low Aug.24).







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Portugal Global Trade Balance up to €-2.43B in August from previous €-2.6B



FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.






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GBP: Timing of a Fed move is not decisive for timing of the BoE – Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that the BoE governor has dismissed all speculations about the BoE move should be only after Fed’s move and suggested that this is not the case.

Key Quotes

“Over at the BoE, after voting to hold rates (as expected) on an 8-1 majority, the committee made mention to ‘a deterioration in the global demand environment’ which could slow the pace of expansion further, making special mention to the slowdown in emerging markets and China.”

“Despite some dovish tints in the statement, BoE Governor Carney, speaking later in the day, offered a slightly different angle saying that timing of a Fed move is not decisive for timing of the BoE, making mention in particular that over the course of five rate cycles since the UK adopted inflation targeting, the BoE has moved before the Fed in two of them.”

“Carney was also slightly more hawkish on the inflation outlook, noting that ‘importantly we are seeing building wage pressures’ and that ‘you can achieve your inflation target even in the face of some very large external forces’.”

Check here for recent report on BoE titled "BoE Governor Carney still considering raising rates this year - MUFG"





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EUR/USD SMA cross argues move higher


The recapture of previous swing highs has resulted in a cross of the EUR/USD 50-period above the 200 SMA.

The signal emerged on 4-hour charts further bolstering the near-term EUR/USD price structure. While breakout traders will wait for a close above recent tops to negotiate a new bull move, less conservative participants will expect a re-test of the crossing level to prove benevolent for continued upside.




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European stocks trade in the red, DAX bucks the trend


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European stocks wiped out opening gains and turned negative, bringing an end to the recent streak of gains, and completely shrugged-off the strong performance seen on the Chinese bourses.

The macro calendar offers no data-flow, and the session ahead is expected to remain calmer as the US markets are closed on account of a public holiday.

European stocks slide on profit-taking?

The German index, the DAX, appears to ditch its other European counterparts and defends mild gains, largely supported by utilities companies. RWE and E.ON rallied 10.30% and 7.60%, respectively after positive corporate news. Unlike the German benchmark, the UK’s FTSE keeps losses in sync with the mining-giant Glencore after the company announced on that it is planning to sell two of its copper mines in Australia and Chile.

Meanwhile, Germany’s DAX trades 0.27% higher to 10,124 points, while the UK’s FTSE loses 0.38% to 6,393. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index drops -0.37% to 4,684, while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index trades -0.20% to 3,243 points.





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JPY: Easing not in sight at least for now - Rabobank


FXStreet (Delhi) – Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, notes that the BoJ Governor Kuroda does not sound like a man desperate to ease policy further and at the sidelines of the weekend’s IMF meetings, Kuroda commented that “if necessary, we can further ease our monetary policy but at this moment the inflation dynamics is as we anticipated. So, at this stage we just continue QE, but if necessary we can adjust”.

Key Quotes

“The door for further easing has clearly been left open, but there is a tangible reluctance to act despite clear market pressure to do so.”

“Recent economic data releases have shown weakness in production, trade, retail sales, vehicle sales, machine orders and inflation data. At the October 30policy meeting, the BoJ is expected to revise lower forecasts for both activity and inflation and many market participants expect the Bank to sooth these announcements with an increase in QE.”

“An increase in the asset purchase programme, however, may not be straightforward. The minutes of the August BoJ policy meeting state that “one member said that the additional effects of QQE had been diminishing and such effects from even the initial scale of QQE had already been exceeded by the side effects.”

“Even amongst those who believe that the BoJ has no choice but to extend QQE, there are fears that the size of the programme has become so unwieldy as to necessitate some change in tack.”

“Also arguing in favour of steady policy on Oct 30 is the BoJ observation that the “real effective exchange rate of the yen has depreciated to the level last recorded in 1973”. Why we expect that the BoJ will have to ease further this cycle, there is clear risk that October may bring a disappointment for JPY bears.”





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Fed accepts that US potential growth has slowed – BBH


FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, note that the US Fed has accepted the fact that the US potential growth has slowed which can be seen in the Fed's observation that the US economy had been growing above trend.

Key Quotes

“This is what it means when NY Fed President said before the weekend that nonfarm payroll growth of 120-150k is likely sufficient to continue to push the unemployment rate down.”

“The Fed's staff estimate suggests trend growth in the US is about 1.75% through the end of the decade. It means that those warning that the US economy has not achieved that famed "escape velocity" are using a metric that may no longer apply. The strong growth was, in part, made possible by the baby boom generation. Population growth has slowed, and in an increasing number of high and medium income countries, falling.”

“Dudley also acknowledged that an inventory overhang will weigh on growth here in the second half of the year. That instructs us to watch final demand (GDP inventories) and consumption. Consumption is around two-thirds of the economy, and provided consumption remains robust, we should not rule out a December hike.”





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NZD: RBNZ to sit tight this month- Westpac


FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Senior Markets Strategist at Westpac, suggests that the positive run of data recently, combined with rising global dairy prices, leaves us comfortable with our call that the RBNZ will leave the OCR on hold in October (currently, markets are pricing roughly a 25% chance of a cut, and roughly half of economists are calling a cut).

Key Quotes

“It was always going to take some form of data shock to force the RBNZ to cut in October. So far, no such shock has been forthcoming. Indeed, we have seen dairy prices rebound 63% since August, and migration and house prices remain strong.”

“Confidence in the economic outlook is low, but businesses’ own outlooks is flat. The final opportunity will come on Friday this week, when the September quarter CPI is released. We are bracing for yet another weak number, but that will be mainly due to one-off changes in government charges.”

“Our annual inflation forecast of 0.2% is in line with the RBNZ’s forecast, and would not be enough to tip the balance in favour of an October OCR cut. The NZ dollar is up sharply to almost 67c against the US dollar, although the rise on a trade weighted basis has been less marked. This will certainly weigh on the RBNZ’s mind. But our judgement is that even the higher exchange rate is not enough to outweigh the shock rise in dairy prices.”





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WTI Oil offered at 50% retracement, now trades in the red


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) December futures ran into offers closer to USD 50.165 (50% R of May to Aug plunge) to trade with moderate losses in the NY session.

Hovers above key support

At USD 49.40, prices are just a few cents above a strong support on the daily chart located at USD 49.32. Prices had received a minor boost after the OPEC, via its monthly report, revised its 2015 global demand forecast lower and 2016 forecast higher.

However, prices failed to take out key Fib resistance mentioned above at USD 50.165. Meanwhile, losses are being capped by the moderate weakness in the USD index.

WTI Oil Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 49.32 (Aug 31 high), under which the prices could drop to 47.78 (Sep 17 high). On the other side, resistance is seen at 50.165 (50% of May to Aug plunge) and 50.93 (previous day’s high).





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EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1370


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The buying interest is not giving up on the single currency on Monday, with EUR/USD clinging to its daily gains vs. the dollar around the 1.1370 area.

EUR/USD supported around 1.1360

The upside momentum in the pair seems to have run out of legs in the 1.1400 neighbourhood in early trade, prompting sellers to step in and briefly drag spot to the 1.1360/55 region, or session lows.

Thin trade and low volatility remain in centre stage today in response to the inactivity in the US markets, with USD paying little attention to the speech by Fed’s D.Lockhart, who still advocates for a rate hike later in the year.

Next on tap in Euroland will be the German ZEW Survey and September’s CPI figures, all due tomorrow.

EUR/USD levels to watch

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.13% at 1.1373 and a breakout of 1.1460 (monthly high Sep.18) would target 1.1541 (downtrend from mid-December) and then 1.1714 (high post-PBoC move Aug.24). On the flip side, the immediate support lines up at 1.1239 (55-d sma) followed by 1.1175 (2-month up trend) and then 1.1107 (monthly low Sep.23).




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Bank of Indonesia expected to remain ‘on hold’ – BBH


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at BBH sees the Bank of Indonesia leaving the benchmark rate unchanged at 7.5% at its meeting this week.

Key Quotes

“Bank Indonesia meets Thursday and is expected to keep rates steady at 7.5%”.

“Inflation eased to 6.8% y/y in September, but is running above the 3-5% target range”.

“Indonesia reports September trade then too, with exports seen at -15.3% y/y and imports seen at -20.5% y/y”.

“The economy remains sluggish, but high inflation and the weak rupiah has kept BI on hold. If inflation continues to fall and the rupiah firms, BI may try to sneak in a rate cut”.







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EUR/USD stuck in a 20-pip range


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD has been restricted in a narrow range of 1.1360-1.1380 in the last couple of hours as the trading interest remains low on account of a holiday in the US.

Awaits China data

The investors now await the Chinese trade balance data for September due for release tomorrow. A sharp drop in the exports and imports could heighten concerns regarding the slowdown in the global economy as well the world’s second largest economy.

The data could significantly affect the overall risk sentiment in the markets and affect the EUR/USD pair. The Chinese data would be followed by a final German CPI reading. As for today, the pair is likely to continue trading lacklustre.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.14, above which the spot could target 1.1460 (Sep 18 high). If taken out on a closing basis, the pair could test 1.1621 (Aug 25 high). On the lower side, a break below 1.1353 (daily low) could push the pair back to 1.13 levels.








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Gold at fresh session lows, down 1%

FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extended losses to print a session low of USD 1152.60/Oz levels despite losses in the European equities and weak China data released earlier today.

Technical sell-off underway?

The drop appears to have been triggered by a failure to rise above strong offers at 1169 (Aug high) on Monday. The fundamental continue to remain in favour of the metal, since the weak China data triggered a wave of selling in the European stock markets.

Ahead in the day, the yellow metal may find some support from the possible weakness in the US stocks. Fed’s Evans comments could also influence the yellow metal.

Gold Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 1147.10 (July 8 low), under which the metal could extend the drop to its 50-DMA at 1141.26. On the other side, a break above 1159.22 (hourly 50-MA) could see the metal re-test the previous session’s high of 1169.







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GBP/USD in fresh lows near 1.5220

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The demand for the sterling remains subdued on Tuesday, now dragging GBP/USD to test lows in sub-1.5230 levels.

GBP/USD capped by 1.5400

The pair’s initial upside has found strong resistance in the vicinity of 1.5400 the figure today, sparking the ongoing deep correction to the 1.5220 area. The better tone in GBP has found initial support in the UK’s M&A sector, later reverted by disappointing inflation figures in the UK economy during September.

Comments by MPC member G.Vlieghe stating that the exchange rate remains ‘unreasonably strong’ have weighed on spot, while I.McCafferty emphasized that current domestic disinflationary pressures would be transitory.

GBP/USD important levels

As of writing the pair is retreating 0.74% at 1.5234 and a breakdown of 1.5128 (up trend from ytd low) would expose 1.5107 (low Oct.1) and then 1.5089 (low May 5). On the other hand, the immediate hurdle lines up at 1.5411 (55-day sma) ahead of 1.5443 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.5658-1.5107) and then 1.5500 (100-day sma/psychological level).








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US Dollar trims loses, 95.00 on sight?

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, continues to extend its recovery from session troughs in the 94.50 region, currently testing the vicinity of 94.80.

US Dollar still suffers the dovish FOMC

The renewed offered tone around the dollar has gained further traction as of late, mainly in response to the recent FOMC minutes. At the same time, market expectations of a potential Fed’s lift-off by year-end keep losing ground in favour of a rate hike in January or March 2016, adding further downside pressure to the greenback.

In the data space, NFIB’s Business Optimism index came in above estimates at 96.1 during September, ticking higher from August’s 95.9.

In addition, Fed’s Bullard has argued that the ‘lift-off is appropriate despite challenges’.

US Dollar significant levels

As of writing the US Dollar Index is losing 0.07% at 94.82 facing the next support at 94.06 (low Sep.24) followed by 92.59 (low post-PBoC move Aug.24) and finally 90.00 (psychological level). On the upside, a break above 95.46 (Fibo 50% of 98.40-92.52) would open the door to 96.05 (200-day sma) and then 96.34 (downtrend from August tops).








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GBP/JPY at fresh session highs after UK data


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/JPY pair dropped to 182.74, before rushing back to a fresh session high of 183.55 levels after the UK data showed a drop in the unemployment rate but a slowdown in the wage growth.

Sterling in demand

The drop in the UK unemployment rate to its lowest level since 2008 has triggered a broad based rally in sterling. The markets so far have ignored the slight slowdown in the UK wage growth and the uptick in the jobless claims.

The pair took out the hourly 100-MA and 50-MA, but is having a tough time extend gains further as the Japanese Yen finds buyers amid the losses in the European equities.

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 183.73 (hourly 100-MA), followed by a hurdle at 183.86 (23.6% of 180.66-184.85) and 184.00 levels. On the lower side, support is seen at 183.34 (hourly 50-MA), 183.25 (hourly 200-MA & 38.2% of 180.66-184.85), under which the pair could re-test 183.00 handle.








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USD/CHF rallies could struggle around 0.9660/90 – Commerzbank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, sees bullish attempts to struggle around the 0.9660/90 area.

Key Quotes

“USD/CHF came under pressure on Friday and looks set to extend losses to the .9527/25 200 day ma and recent low”.

“The September low at .9527 guards the .9353/.9260 five month support line and recent low. Intraday rallies are indicated to be likely to struggle .9660/90”.

“Key resistance is the 2001-2015 downtrend lies at .9855 – we look for this to eventually to be eroded but not yet”.







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Euro showing remarkable resilience – Rabobank


FXStreet (Delhi) – Elwin de Groot, Senior Eurozone Strategist at Rabobank, notes that the Eurodollar briefly pushed through the 1.14 level, which is at the upper end of its trading range since May, when volatility in financial markets took off.

Key Quotes

“Despite ongoing speculation that the ECB may have to do more, reflected in 10y Bunds trading below 60bps again, the euro has been showing remarkable resilience. Of all markets, European money markets seem to be the most consistent these days, with Eonia and Euribor forwards trading close to record-lows.”

“What’s more, overnight ECB lending to Eurozone banks fell to zero from Tuesday on Wednesday, for the first time since January 6. Interbank overnight lending also declined to near-YTD lows (EUR 11.6bn yesterday), which is largely a mirror image of the huge amount of excess liquidity (EUR 535bn) sloshing around.”







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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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