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Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com


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WTI Crude rises above 50-DMA, trades positive
FXStreet (Mumbai) - WTI Crude April futures rose above 50-DMA located at USD 49.50/barrel, after having recovered from the low of USD 48.68 hit on concerns of excess supply.
WTI Crude: will it sustain above 50-DMA?
The recovery seen in Crude prices was largely in the absence of fresh fundamental trigger. Moreover, the Weekly US oil inventory data will start coming in from Tuesday, with the API Weekly Statistical data due later in the day and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report due on Wednesday.
In the meantime, Greece’s debt drama and Fed chairwoman Yellen’s testimony shall take the center stage. Both the issues can significantly impact the US dollar and thus lead to intraday swings in Crude prices. A weak USD could help Crude sustain above the 50-DMA located at USD 49.50. However, eventually the prices could decline sharply if the weekly supply data shows oil inventories in the US continued to rise in the last week.
WTI Crude Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 50.39 (5-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 51.46 (10-DMA). On the flip side, a break below 50-DMA at 49.50, could push the prices down to daily low of 48.68.
Feb 24,2015
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Stay short the Aussie – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at JP Morgan keep recommending selling the AUD, in light of further monetary easing by the RBA.
Key Quotes
“We continue to find value in being short AUD given our outlook on commodity prices and the outlook on the RBA”.
“The RBA has expressed a desire to weaken the currency, but that is unlikely to happen materially if it does not deliver rate cuts in the context of the rest of the world which is engaging in aggressive easing”.
“Our Antipodean strategists think that the RBA will thus deliver a total of 50bp easing in the 1H with a high likelihood that the next rate cut will be delivered in March”.
“Finally, this week Australia’s sovereign ratings also garnered some attention with news articles highlighting that S&P’s AAA rating could be at risk if the 30% Commonwealth Government debt/GDP ratio were to be breached (current ratio is 20%)”.
“While this is not imminent and is likely to be a slow burn issue, on the margin it is AUD-negative since it limits the magnitude of stimulus fiscal policy can deliver thus raising the onus on monetary policy”.
Feb 24,2015
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FOCM March statement could mirror Yellen text – Hislenrath
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Wall street Journal’s Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath believes the March FOMC meeting statement could be almost similar to the Fed chief Yellen’s testimony.
He notes that the Fed could replace “patient” with “Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of incoming data, the Committee is reasonably confident that inflation will move back over the medium term toward our 2 percent objective.”
“The phrase 'reasonably confident' appeared in the minutes of the December FOMC minutes. Several officials have said they want to start raising rates by June. It still isn't clear, however, if they'll reach the inflation confidence threshold by then," Hilsenrath notes.
Feb 25,2015
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Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP increased to 2.1% in 4Q from previous 2%
Read more in Forex News
Feb 25,2015
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GBP/USD likely to advance towards 1.5582 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, GBP/USD might move upwards towards 1.5582 levels if the pair manages to recover above 1.5500.
Key Quotes
“From a technical point of view, the 1 hour chart shows that the price holds above a bullish 20 SMA although indicators turned lower, now approaching their midlines.”
“In the 4 hours chart the price holds also above a bullish 20 SMA while the technical indicators are retracing from near overbought levels, still well above their midlines.”
“If the price manages to recover above 1.5500, the pair will likely continue advancing towards the 1.5582 level this year high."
“Support levels: 1.5450 1.5420 1.5390"
“Resistance levels: 1.5500 1.5535 1.5580”
Feb 25,2015
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Inflation expectations and ECB’s QE, among the Riksbank concerns – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In light of the recent minutes by the Riksbank, inflation expectations and the prospects of further downside in the euro via the ECB’s QE are the main worries expressed by the Swedish central bank, suggested analysts at Danske Bank.
Key Quotes
“Recent data suggest that (underlying) inflation is moving slowly upwards – but after such a long period of undershooting inflation it would be much worse if it stayed low than if it rose faster than expected (even overshooting the target). Above all, inflation expectations have become a great concern, especially over the longer term and among unions and employers’ organisations”.
“Other risks mentioned were: the global situation, with uncertainties related to Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, and the sharp decline in oil prices (a potentially positive factor for global growth but also a risk to inflation expectations)”.
“Also the ECB: it is clear to us that the board is nervous about the massive policy actions (QE) that the European Central Bank will launch shortly and that this could end up in a stronger krona”.
“In other words, the Riksbank wouldn’t be happy to see a stronger krona at this stage (which in turn makes their forecast of exactly that happening slightly strange)”.
“As far as the SEK10bn in bond purchases are concerned, the message is that it is a test (we find it hard to believe that the RB expects the purchases to have a major effect on inflation) and a signal that the bank is prepared to do (much) more if need be”.
Feb 26,2015
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NZD/USD to extend towards 0.7700 by next week – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Imre Speizer of Westpac, gives the week ahead outlook for NZD/USD, stating that an extension towards 0.7700 won’t be surprising.
Key Quotes
“The recent rally is likely to extend next week. We target at least the 0.7610-0.7620 area (those were the main lows last Dec) but a run as far as 0.7700 would not surprise.”
“NZ’s economic data pulse is currently running hot, with dairy prices rising, migration at record levels, and the domestic economy in solid shape.”
“Combined with USD’s stall plus speculative positioning short NZD, an argument for multiweek NZD/USD strength can easily be made.”
“Further out, we expect a reversal in the NZ data pulse by April, and are more constructive on the US dollar, implying a decline in NZD/USD to 0.7100 by mid-year.”
Feb 26,2015
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Bunds: bull flag triggered, targets 160.33 and 161.67 – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, notes that with the bull flag triggered, bund futures are now targeting 160.33 and 161.67.
Key Quotes
“The market triggered the bullish flag, which we eyed in our previous publications, confirming the view for another bullish swing towards 0.22% and potentially lower yields. The level stays as a key Fibonacci retracement from the May-Sep impulse wave.”
“We have been buying against 158.20 futures level and see the next projected targets at 160.33 and 161.67. Stop can be moved higher to 159.00”
“SUP: 159.52 159.00 158.70”
“RES: 159.93 160.35 160.85”
Feb 26,2015
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US inflation falls into negative territory
FXStreet (London) - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers declined 0.7 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index decreased 0.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
The energy index fell 9.7 percent as the gasoline index fell 18.7 percent in January, the sharpest in a series of seven consecutive declines. The gasoline decrease was overwhelmingly the cause of the decline in the all items index, which would have risen 0.1 percent had the gasoline index been unchanged. The fuel oil index also fell sharply, and the index for natural gas turned down, although the electricity index rose. The food index was unchanged in January, with the food at home index falling for the first time since May 2013.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for personal care, for apparel, and for recreation increased as well. The medical care index was unchanged, while an array of indexes declined in January, including those for household furnishings and operations, alcoholic beverages, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, airline fares, and tobacco.
The all items index declined 0.1 percent over the last 12 months, the first negative 12-month change since the period ending October 2009. The energy index fell 19.6 percent over the span, with the gasoline index down 35.4 percent. The food index rose 3.2 percent, and the index for all items less food and energy increased 1.6 percent.
Feb 26,2015
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US jobless claims increase 31k
FXStreet (London) - In the week ending February 21, the advance figure for US seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level according to the Department for Labor. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 283,000 to 282,000.
The 4-week moving average was 294,500, an increase of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 283,250 to 283,000.
The Department for Labor reported that there were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.8 percent for the week ending February 14, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 14 was 2,401,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 2,425,000 to 2,422,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,399,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 750 from 2,398,000 to 2,397,250.
Feb 26,2015
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EUR/JPY dips below 134.00



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/JPY pair extended losses post the release of US data to trade below 134.00 levels. The upbeat US Durable goods data along with the sticky core inflation hurt the shared currency more than the Japanese Yen.


EUR/JPY: Breaches key support


The pair has breached the key support at 133.92 (Feb. 17 low) after the upbeat Durable goods orders data in the US weakened the EUR/USD pair to 1.1232; down 1.14%. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen weakened just 0.31% against the US dollar to trade at 119.22 per US dollar. Moreover, the rising Treasury yields in the US weighed more heavily on the shared currency compared to the Japanese Yen. The 10-year yield in the US has recovered losses to trade at 1.995%, up 2.6 basis points.


EUR/JPY Technical Levels


The pair currently trades at 133.89; down 0.85% for the day. The immediate support is seen at 133.50, under which losses could be extended to 132.68 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 134.75 and 135.35 levels.










Feb 26,2015

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USD/JPY maintains the range, upside move possible as risk aversion falls – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, reviews the Japanese data releases and warns of a further easing by the BoJ, and further predicts USD/JPY to break out of its broader range as volatility and risk aversion falls lower across markets.
Key Quotes
“JPY is flat but still trading within its broader range, just above its 50‐day MA of 118.80. Data flow was disappointing, as inflation came in at 2.4% on headline, 2.2% ex fresh food and 2.1% ex food and energy; trending lower and still artificially elevated from the consumption tax increase.”
“The jobless rate rose unexpectedly to 3.6%, household spending collapsed down to –5.1%, retail sales disappointed, falling –2.0%y/y while housing starts were down –13%; the only bright spot was a 4%m/m rise in industrial production.”
“Governor Kuroda followed up, repeating comments that they expect to meet the BoJ’s CPI target (ex impact of inflation).”
“The deterioration in the fundamental data is concerning and warns of the potential for further BoJ policy action.”
“As volatility and risk aversion falls lower across markets, we expect USDJPY to break out of its recent narrow range towards the December highs of 121.85.”
Feb 27,2015
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EUR/USD returns to 1.1220 on US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The single currency is giving away port of the initial gains vs. the dollar on Friday, sending EUR/USD to the 1.1225/20 band.
EUR/USD trims gains on GDP
After hitting session highs near 1.1240, the pair shed some pips following a better-than-expected US GDP, expanding 2.2% on a yearly basis during Q4. Consumer Prices tracked by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, contracted 0.4% inter-quarter during the same period, bettering consensus for a 0.5% drop.
Next on tap will be the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and the Reuters/Michigan index.
EUR/USD relevant levels
As of writing the pair is advancing 0.26% at 1.1227 with the next hurdle at 1.1300 (psychological level) followed by 1.1335 (10-d MA) and finally 1.1350 (21-d MA). On the downside, a dip beyond 1.1184 (low Feb.26) would expose 1.1098 (11-year low Jan.26) and then 1.1047 (low Sep.8 2003).
Feb 27,2015
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EUR/USD stablized into the NA opening hours - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla sutton, Chief FX strategist at Scotiabank explained that after yesterday's USD induced EUR weakness, driven by hawkish Fed comments and stronger than expected core CPI, today has EUR stabilized.
Key Quotes:
"Fundamental data included stronger than expected French consumer spending and Italian CPI, with Germany’s regional CPI also firming."
"This highlights an important theme for EUR, with data now improving and beating expectations how much lower will the currency fall. We expect that Fed interest rate hikes juxtaposed against negative interest rates in Europe and negative sentiment will continue to weigh on EUR; however for now the currency is contained within a month‐long range of 1.1098 to 1.1542. We hold a year‐end forecast of 1.05.
Feb 27,2015
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Forex is such a large and global business that the more we try to learn the harder it becomes and when we talk about analysis aspect of this business we are even in more confusion due to endless ways to do it, so a newbie finds himself in a lost planet trying to figure out the way to home which is very tough.

I am grateful to OctaFX broker for making it easier for all the new comers like me as there was nothing more frustrating than do hard work to create analysis and then they go wrong now we don’t need to do much work and yet we are almost certain that we will get perfect results out of it.

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US NFP this Friday to raise the prospect of a Fed rate hike – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Friday’s NFP will likely come out stronger and raise the prospect of a rate hike by the Fed, and further adds that a delay in the rate hike will not undermine USD strength, as global easing will keep the dollar supported.
Key Quotes
“On Friday, the NFP data is likely to confirm another solid month of job gains that will leave open the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising the federal funds rate for the first time since 2006.”
“One key area of the report will of course be the growth in average earnings. The 0.5% gain last month is expected to be followed by a 0.2% gain and our internal estimate based on other measures of labour market spare capacity continue to point to an acceleration in annual wage growth toward 3.0% in the second half of the year.”
“Wages and Salaries in the Employment Cost Index report is showing a pick-up is underway with the annualised growth rate in the second half of last year at 2.5%.”
“With gasoline and energy prices lower, the boost to real incomes will be key for supporting personal consumption and giving the Fed the confidence to believe economic growth has become more sustainable.”
“The employment reports are always important – but the next few reports will be crucial in determining whether market rates have to adjust sharply higher or the FOMC has to adjust its message to the markets on the timing of the first rate increase.”
“Crucially though, while a delay may undermine the dollar, the dollar will remain supported by the much more active easing taking place internationally.”
Mar 02,2015
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Gold awaits US data
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices are trading steady just above the 100-DMA located at USD 1215.54/Oz levels, ahead of the US personal income and spending data followed by the ISM manufacturing number.
Gold: Strong US data could weaken prices
The yellow metal could fall below 100-DMA if the personal spending in February enters positive territory after a 0.3% contraction seen in January. On similar lines, a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing figure in February could weigh on the yellow metal.
In the meantime, the slight decline of 0.1% in the USD index is supporting the metal. The negative action in the European equities also helps the safe haven metal.
Gold Technical Levels
The metal currently trades at USD 1216.60/Oz; up 0.29%. The immediate resistance is seen at at 1219.5, above which prices could re-test the daily high of 1223.1. On the flip side, support is seen at 1215.46, under which losses could be extended to 1211.76 (5-DMA).
Mar 02,2015
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CFTC: USD longs consolidation at their recent highs - Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Team reviews the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning data as at 24 February 2014.
Key Quotes
“Long USD positions increased modestly last week. They appear to be consolidating off their recent highs but still at very elevated levels.”
“EUR shorts fell for the third consecutive week although they remain substantial. News that Greece has agreed to a bailout extension with its creditors in addition to some better Eurozone data releases has lent the EUR some support. That said, the start of the ECB’s QE programme could pressure the EUR in March."
“For the fifth consecutive week, net GBP shorts edged lower. Pre-election uncertainty remains a negative sterling factor. However, the fact that UK bonds still offer better yield relative to many European alternatives coupled with assurances from BoE Governor Carney that the Bank will look through disinflation pressures (on the basis that low commodity prices is good for growth), is lending the pound support.”
“Net JPY shorts edged lower for a sixth week and are now less than half the size of their December highs. Any recovery in BoJ easing hopes could again undermine the JPY.”
“AUD net shorts edged pushed higher. They are holding at their highest level since Jan 2014. Net CADs shorts increased to their highest levels since April 2014.”
“CHF net shorts appear to have settled at moderately negative levels after January’s SNB’s surprise policy decision.”
Mar 02,2015
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GBP/USD weakens with fall in UK Gilt yields



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The British Pound weakened due to weakness in the UK Gilt yields, taking the GBP/USD down to 1.5378 levels. The pair failed to sustain above 1.54 levels despite the UK manufacturing PMI in February rose to a seven month high.


GBP/USD: Bond yields spread favors USD


The Pound weakened as the yield spread between the UK 10-year yield and the US 10-year yield is in favor of the US dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield in the US is trading 1 basis point higher at 2.012%, while the UK 10-year Gilt yield is down 3.1 basis points to 1.746%. Moreover, the weakness in the Gilt yield contradicts the data released today, that showed manufacturing PMI at 54.1.


The bond yield spread may tilt further in the favor of the USD if the ISM manufacturing index and personal spending and income data in the US beats the market expectations.


GBP/USD Technical Levels


The pair currently trades at 1.5384; down 0.35%. The immediate support is seen at 1.5342 and 1.5318 levels. On the flip side, resistance is seen at 1.5408 and 1.5447 (100-DMA) levels.









Mar 02,2015

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USD/CAD may rise to 1.31 in Q3 – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ian Gordon of BofA-Merrill Lynch, forecasts USD/CAD to rise to 1.31 in Q3 before falling slightly to 1.30 by 2015-end, viewing oil prices as the primary driver for this bearish view.
Key Quotes
“We see USD-CAD rising to 1.31 in Q3 before ending the year at 1.30.”
“We continue to believe CAD will remain under pressure as oil prices will likely fall further (based on BofAML forecasts), and the risk management approach of the BoC pushes it in the direction of an easing bias.”
“Contrasted with increasing risks of a June Fed rate hike, policy differentials should also pressure the currency.”
Mar 03,2015
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Brazil and Mexico showing sharp differences – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities exposed the opposing directions regarding the macro and FX environment in both countries.
Key Quotes
“We expect differentiation between Mexico and Brazil to become more pronounced as Brazil enters a recession on the back of difficult fundamentals and a substantial fiscal adjustment, and inflation remains high as the risk of energy rations looms large. Meanwhile, the recovery in Mexico appears to be underway and the country is poised to capitalize on stronger US growth via manufactured exports”.
“Despite the weaker currency, Banxico is likely to remain on hold until the Fed begins hiking in the second half. In Brazil, fiscal policy will be supportive of the BCB’s goals, and we expect the Copom will leave rates elevated for a prolonged period of time, rather than looking to cut in the face of weak growth or the first inflation print that suggests an inflection point and the first signs that inflation is on a declining path”.
“With the gradual unwinding of the BCB swaps program and poor growth prospects, we expect BRL to depreciate over the course of the year. In Mexico, we expect MXN to appreciate over the course of the year, benefitting from stronger US growth, eventual hikes from Banxico, and FDI inflows towards the end of the year. However, we recognize that MXN volatility will remain high”.
Mar 03,2015
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EUR/USD: lower lows supporting additional declines – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The EUR/USD pair trades soft printing lower lows, with the 20 SMA limiting the upside for the pair, notes Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, as she shares the technical outlook for the single currency.
Key Quotes
“The bearish trend ruling the EUR/USD pair, took another step this Tuesday, with the pair falling down to 1.1154, a couple of pips below its previous low, whilst the upside was limited by selling interest around the 1.1210 level.”
“Earlier in the day German Retail Sales surged 5.3% yearly basis, supporting the short lived spike to the mentioned daily high."
“As the US session starts, the pair trades below its 20 SMA in the 1 hour chart, while the technical indicators aim higher below their midlines, reflecting the latest bounce from the daily low, but far from suggesting a strong advance on the makes.”
“In the 4 hours chart, the price stands below a strongly bearish 20 SMA whilst the Momentum indicator lies flat below 100 and the RSI holds at 41, all of which should continue to keep the upside limited.”
“Support levels: 1.1140 1.1095 1.1050”
“Resistance levels: 1.1210 1.1250 1.1285”
Mar 03,2015
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Stay long GBP FX volatility into UK elections – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at BofA-Merrill Lynch, give the trade setup for GBP into the UK elections, suggesting to remain long GBP FX volatility using GBP/USD.
Key Quotes
“we continue to believe the optimal way to trade the election is to be long GBP FX volatility.”
“In our GBP Year-Ahead report we expressed our preference to be long GBP volatility by owning EUR/GBP straddles. However, we were reluctant to do so at that point with volatility trading on a 10% handle.”
“The recent sell-off in G10 FX volatility more broadly provides us with an opportunity step into a trade. However, we have chosen to switch focus to GBP/USD given much of the nearterm event risk in the Euro Area (Greece, ECB QE) has now passed and perhaps with it, appetite to own EUR-based options.”
“In our view, owning GBP/USD straddles on a 7% handle looks good value”
“The Trade – Own 2mth GBP/USD Straddles
Buy a 2mth GBP/USD at the money straddle (1.5370), which expires on 30 April for 2.37% in GBP terms.”
Mar 04,2015
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USD/CAD carving a triangle formation, to break higher – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team comment on the BoC rate cut expectations and further share the technical outlook for USD/CAD.
Key Quotes
“BOC Governor Poloz dampened expectations for a cut today with last week's reiteration that the January rate cut was an insurance policy to buy time.”
“Yesterday's somewhat firmer than expected Q4 GDP (2.4% vs. 2.0% consensus) should have solidified such expectations, but the details were less encouraging, keeping some wary of a cut today. Inventory accumulation accounted for 0.4 percentage points while the two sectors the central bank has identified as key for the recovery, investment and exports, both fell.”
“The US dollar has been carving out a large triangle pattern against the Canadian dollar since the end of January. The bottom of the triangle is flattish around CAD1.2450. The top is marked by a falling trend line that coming in now near CAD1.2620. We look for an eventual break higher.”
Mar 04,2015
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Strong Eurozone retail sales confirm the positive growth momentum – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Pernille Bomholdt Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, reviews the Eurozone retail sales data release, and further forecasts euro-area GDP to print an above consensus figure at 1.5% in 2015, and private consumption to see a boost.
Key Quotes
“Euro area retail sales increased for a fourth month in a row in January, when they were up 1.1% m/m. The figure for December was revised slightly higher to 0.4% m/m from 0.3% m/m in the first release.”
“The increase in January was mainly driven by strong German retail sales, which showed an increase of 2.9% m/m, and sales in Portugal which were very strong, increasing 6.8% m/m. French retail sales were up 0.1% m/m”
“The fourth month in a row of higher retail sales confirms our view that the recovery in the euro area is gaining momentum and that it is driven by higher growth in private consumption. The strong start to private consumption in Q1 even suggests some upside risk to our forecast for private consumption.”
“We expect GDP growth to be 1.5% in 2015, which is above consensus of 1.2%.”
Mar 04,2015
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EUR/USD keeps lows around 1.1120
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD remains unmotivated and depressed in the vicinity of 1.1120, retracing the bullish attempt to 1.1130/40.
EUR/USD now looks to the ISM, ADP report
Disappointing results from the Services PMIs in the euro area during February sparked the current leg lower, which found some support in the 1.1120/15 band. The greenback extended its upside momentum today, ahead of the ADP Employment report and the key ISM Non-Manufacturing in the US economy. Market consensus expects the US private sector to have added 220K jobs during February, while the ISM is expected a tad lower at 56.5 vs. 56.7 previous.
EUR/USD levels to consider
As of writing the pair is retreating 0.47% at 1.1122 facing the next support at 1.1115 (low Mar.4) followed by 1.1098 (11-year low Jan.26) and finally 1.1047 (low Sep.8 2003). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1218 (high Mar.3) would expose 1.1245 (high Feb.27) and then 1.1271 (10-d MA).
Mar 04,2015
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Goodbye Pound; GBP/USD breaks below 1.5300
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The British Pound extended its collapse against the US dollar beyond the 1.5300 level as the GBP/USD completed a 70-pip decline in the last few hours from 1.5360 to trade at fresh lows since Feb 12 at 1.5280.
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5285, down 0.52% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5375 and low at 1.5280. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing oversold conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.
GBP/USD levels
If the pair consolidates levels below 1.5300, it will find supports at 1.5280, 1.5260 and 1.5220. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5300, 1.5320 and 1.5350.
Mar 04,2015
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BoE’s might hike rates despite low inflation, August likely – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mikael Olai Milhøj, Analyst at Danske Bank, explains that the BoE might hike rates in August, but risks also tilted towards a later hike in Q3 or Q4, but expects the central bank to hike irrespective of the inflation remaining low.
Key Quotes
“As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) just announced that it voted to maintain the Bank Rate and the stock of asset purchases at 0.50% and GBP375bn, respectively.”
“We still expect the first hike to arrive in August but stress that risks are tilted towards a hike later in Q3 or possibly in Q4.”
“There are several reasons for our somewhat dovish view. Firstly, the UK recovery remains on track and we expect solid growth both this year and next, supported by the low commodity prices, positive real wage growth and increasing growth in Europe.”
“Secondly, the unemployment rate is currently at 5.7% and is approaching the Bank of England’s estimated medium-term equilibrium unemployment rate at 5.5%, implying that the slack in the labour market is diminishing. In the Inflation Report from February, the Bank of England estimated that slack is around 0.5% of GDP.”
“Thirdly, both wage growth and core inflation are increasing, implying no deflationary tendencies.”
“Fourthly, the MPC recognises that the very low inflation is due to temporary factors that should drop out at the end of this year, implying that inflation could increase sharply.”
“As the MPC recognises that monetary policy works with a lag, we expect it to hike despite low inflation if the medium-term outlook calls for a tighter monetary policy.”
Mar 05,2015
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USD/JPY deflates from highs
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing the grip now, pushing USD/JPY back to the area of 120.20 after hitting intraday highs beyond 120.40.
USD/JPY a tad lower on US data
The pair is leaving the region of session highs after Initial Claims to 320K in the week ended on February 20th vs. 295K expected and 313K from the previous week. Further data showed Unit Labour Costs expanding 4.1% during the fourth quarter while Non-farm Productivity contracted 2.2% during the same period.
Next on tap will be US Factory Orders, with consensus expecting an expansion of 0.2% on a month to January.
USD/JPY key levels
At the moment the pair is advancing 0.47% at 120.28 with the next hurdle at 120.48 (high Feb.11) ahead of 120.68 (high Jan.5). On the downside, a break below 119.47 (low Mar.4) would aim for 119.38 (low Mar.3) and then 119.17 (21-d MA).
Mar 05,2015
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ECB Draghi reiterates QE program is open ended
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi stressed the fact that the bank’s QE program is open ended - as he stated readiness to continue with the monthly EUR 60 billion asset purchases beyond September 2016.
However, Draghi also stated that the bank cannot print money to buy government bonds. When questioned about the bonds with negative yields, the President reiterated the bank’s readiness to buy buy negative-yielding bonds up to the deposit rate.
Mar 05,2015
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Core Inflation is still low – Draghi
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank President responded to queries on inflation by stating that the core inflation would stay low and sees the output gap closing gradually by 2017.
With regards to the impact of sliding oil prices, he stated that the stimulus program has damped the second-round deflationary effects of weak oil prices.
Mar 05,2015
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AUD/USD: Further rate cuts priced in for April?
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7776 with a high of 0.7842 and a low of 0.7772.
AUD/USD is suffering to the downside and has lost the 0.78 handle with a move from 0.7820 resistance area. However, whether there is much more room to the downside at this stage, with the majority of the market that feels the RBA will be making further moves may have made their own moves already and a cut in April could have already been priced in.
Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporaton explained that in the RBA's statement, it was told there that, “Further easing of policy may be appropriate”, while rates were kept steady at this meeting, “for the time being”. Their analysts observes that this phrase has been used 8 times over the past 5 years, with a change in rates being delivered within 2 months on all 8 occasions.
It was also noted that RBA’s Lowe conceded that the Aussie is now a lot closer to fair value than it has been for some years. "Risks still seem to the downside for AUD in the month ahead but we switch back to neutral on the week."
Technically, however, Karen Jones at Commerzbank, explained that the AUD/USD remains capped by its downtrend at 0.7883 and for now it will maintain a negative bias. "The market failed at this downtrend last week and charted an outside day to the downside which suggests that we are likely to see the resumption of downside pressure."
Mar 05,2015
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ECB: Greece covered in press conference - ING
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ING noted that during the press conference, there were also several questions on Greece, QE and ELA.
Key Quotes:
"The bottom line of Draghi’s answers was that the ECB would only buy government bonds rated lower than investment grade if the countries are in a bailout programme and the programme is not in a review period."
"Moreover, the ECB could not buy more than 33% of a single issuer."
"For Greece, all of this means that the ECB could at the earliest start purchasing Greek bonds only in June or July, if and when Greece has reimbursed the bond expiring in June which the ECB had (partly) purchased under the old SMP programme."
"Finally, Draghi also said that ELA for Greek banks had been extended by 500 million euro. The ECB’s stance on Greece has definitely not softened."
Mar 05,2015
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EUR/USD steadies above 1.1000 after ECB
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD steadied right above the 1.1000 area after Draghi’s comments sent the pair to a fresh 11-year low of 1.1006.
Even though EUR/USD initially moved higher, it quickly surrendered gains and dropped more than 100 pips after ECB President said the ECB will launch QE program on March 9 and pledged to buy sovereign bonds with negative yields up to -0.2%.
EUR/USD fell from a daily high of 1.1114 to a low of 1.1006 but the managed to stabilize around 1.1020, where it is currently trading, 0.5% below its opening price.
If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1000 (psychological level), next supports are seen at 1.0917 (Sep 5 2003 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.1149 (100-hour SMA) and 1.1185 (Mar 4 high).
Mar 05,2015
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EUR/JPY: Consolidating the downside and bearishness
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is currently trading at 132.40 with a high of 133.60 and a low of 132.12.
EUR/JPY remains under pressure and this time the ECB's Drghi left the room with the euro down at fresh lows. However, in respect of the ECB meeting, Carsten Brzeski, analyst at ING bank explained that, overall, the ECB’s macro-economic assessment was much more upbeat than in previous months. "It looks as if at least the ECB is a strong believer in the positive economic impact of its own QE programme."
Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that the EUR/JPY is expected to remain under pressure given that last week we saw failure ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 137.65 and well ahead of the 200 day moving average at 139.20.
Mar 05,2015
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Session Recap: USD extends the rally, NFP eyed
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback continues its march north almost unabated on Friday, lifting the US Dollar Index (DXY) to fresh highs in over a decade, and in turn confining the riskier assets to challenge lower levels. The euro is trading in levels last seen in September 2003 around 1.0940/30 with high chances of seen further supports breached in case of a positive surprise from the US Payrolls in February.
Continuing in the G10 space, the sterling quickly breached below the 1.5200 key support and seems to have found support around 1.5160. In addition, the greenback is clinging to the area of 120.00 against the Japanese yen, with the area of 120.40/50 still remaining elusive for USD bulls.
Ahead in the day, US Non-farm Payrolls will be the main highlight today. Consensus expects the US economy to have added 240K jobs during February vs. January’s 257K.
Mar 06,2015
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GBP/USD expected to test 1.5040 – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, maintains a bearish outlook on GBP/USD, anticipating the pair to test 1.5040 levels.
Key Quotes
“GBP is weak, having lost 2.6% since failing to break above the 100‐day MA on February 26th.”
“GBPUSD short‐term technicals: bearish—most studies warn of downside risk and have shifted from neutral to bearish.”
“We are bearish to be short GBP at current levels, looking for a test down to 1.5040.”
“Support lies at 1.5139 followed by 1.5100; while resistance comes in at the 21‐day MA at 1.5352.”
Mar 06,2015
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EUR/USD in fresh lows post-Payrolls
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The offered tone around the single currency is growing bigger on Friday, with EUR/USD now meandering fresh lows.
EUR/USD weaker following Non-farm Payrolls
The pair is quickly accelerating its intraday downside after the US economy created 295K jobs during February, beating prior surveys at 240K and up from January’s 239K (revised from 257K). In addition, the jobless rate ticked lower to 5.5%, bettering consensus.
EUR/USD levels to consider
As of writing the pair is retreating 1.29% at 1.0885 facing the next support at 1.0800 (psychological level) On the flip side, a breakout of 1.1218 (high Mar.3) would expose 1.1245 (high Feb.27) and then 1.1271 (10-d MA).
Mar 06,2015
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EUR/SEK still targets 9.30 medium term – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank, keeps the bullish view in the cross, backed by a potential further easing by the Riksbank.
Key Quotes
“In the Scandies, EUR/SEK continues to trade with a heavy tone as the market re-prices Sweden”.
“The fundamental outlook for the SEK has improved substantially but we think the risk is increasing of a correction in EUR/SEK up towards 9.30 as the market should not rule out action from the Riksbank on SEK strength or new softness in data”.
“This week, the main data to focus on are the Prospera inflation survey and February CPI data due on Wednesday”.
Mar 09,2015
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USD upside expected to continue – ANZ
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at ANZ continue to see a Fed’s rate hike in June and a stronger dollar in the next periods.
Key Quotes
“The February NFP release was materially stronger than expected. NFPs rose by 295k and the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% from 5.7%”.
“Whilst earnings growth remains soft at 2.0% y/y, expectations are now firmly focused on a removal of the reference to “patience” at the March FOMC meeting”.
“That would confirm that the FOMC has moved away from date dependency in its forward guidance to data dependency”.
“If, as we expect, the activity data firms again in coming months, then the FOMC remains on course to begin normalising interest rates soon, probably at the June meeting”.
“In the interim, the USD can continue to take the strain for monetary tightening”.
Mar 09,2015
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Japan GDP revised lower, officials wary of USD/JPY destabilization – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, shares that Japan lowered its Q4 GDP to 1.5% from prevoous 2.2%, and further adds that the expected change in Fed’s forward guidance will keep Japanese officials maintain a cautious approach due to concerns about destabilization of USD/JPY.
Key Quotes
“After heavy yen selling on Friday versus the US dollar, USD/JPY was more stable today in response to the GDP data which saw the Q4 data revised lower from 2.2% to 1.5% on an annualised Q/Q basis.”
“The reason for the downgrade was mainly down to capital spending, which was revised down from +0.1% to -0.1% and private inventories which originally was reported to have contributed 0.2ppt to overall GDP but was now estimated to have taken 0.2ppt off growth.”
“The good news was that household consumption was actually revised higher and certainly points to the prospect that the Japanese consumer has recovered from the sales tax increase hit in Q2 and Q3 last year. The Economy Watchers’ Survey also suggests this with the current Index up from 45.6 in January to 50.1 in February - close to the initial recovery peak after the sales tax increase last year.”
“BOJ Deputy Governor Nakaso spoke today and came across a little cautiously when communicating on the yen. He stated that the yen should move “stably” reflecting economic and financial fundamentals. He declined to state that yen depreciation was a positive overall taking a more nuanced approach that there are different impacts for different segments of the economy.”
“We suspect a more cautious approach amongst Japanese officials is very likely going forward – if the Fed do move to raise the key rate in the US this week, there may well be concerns over a destabilising jump in USD/JPY.”
Mar 09,2015
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Credit Agricole: Fed soundings lifts USD; we stay long – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes Credit Agricole views that with Fed on its track to hike rates in mid-year, USD remains a buy, especially versus EUR and CAD.
Key Quotes
“The USD has remained in demand. Fed’s Fisher stressed that a repeat of 2014 economic growth would put the year-end jobless rate at around 4.5% and that taking policy clues from present wage growth would put the Fed in dangerous territory. As such he reaffirmed that the Fed should raise rates early rather than moving later. He added that wage pressures will build as unemployment falls.”
“Overall we remain of the view that the Fed will consider raising rates as soon as mid of this year. Well supported central bank monetary policy expectations should keep the USD a buy.”
“We remain long the currency versus the EUR, and CAD.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
Mar 10,2015
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Improving risk appetite negative for JPY, go long for $123.55 – GrowthAces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team believe that the improving risk appetite as a result of QE will be negative for the Yen, and hence maintain a bullish outlook for USD/JPY, targeting 123.55 levels.
Key Quotes
“The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Japan are the leaders in expanding their balance sheets in the relation to GDP of their countries. This means that the JPY and the CHF are likely to be under strongest pressure among major currencies.”
“The JPY and the CHF are also known safe-haven currencies and an improvement in risk appetite as a consequence of quantitative easing will be negative for these currencies.”
“We have raised our buy offer on the USD/JPY to 120.80.”
“The next strong resistance level is 123.67,daily high on July 9, 2007 and the target of our long position would be placed slightly below this level. The stop-loss level will be set below 119.90, daily low on March 6.”
“Significant technical analysis' levels:
Resistance: 121.29 (high Mar 6), 121.86 (high Dec 8), 122.00 (psychological level)
Support: 119.90 (low Mar 6), 119.47 (low Mar 4), 119.13 (low Feb 27)”
“USD/JPY: buy at 120.80, if filled – target 123.55, stop-loss 119.60”
Mar 10,2015
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EUR/USD bounces off 1.0720
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The European currency is now attempting to recover some ground vs. the US dollar on Tuesday, taking EUR/USD to the area of 1.0780/90 so far.
EUR/USD focus on Greece
Developments from Greece remain the main catalyst for the pair in the near term, with technical talks between Greek officials and the Eurogroup scheduled to start tomorrow regarding the recent reforms package submitted by Greece. In the same line, liquidity fears keep mounting in light of the €300 million repayment to the IMF due by the end of the week.
Nothing in terms of data releases in the euro area today, whereas the Business Optimism index tracked by NFIB ticked higher to 98.0 during February from 97.9 in the previous month.
EUR/USD relevant levels
As of writing the pair is losing 0.70% at 1.0776 and a breakdown of 1.0722 (12-year low Mar.10) would target 1.0502 (low Mar. 21 2003) and finally 1.0335 (2003 low. Jan.3). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.0855 (hourly high Mar.10) followed by 1.0906 (high Mar.9) and then 1.1033 (high Mar.6).
Mar 10,2015
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ECB should use all tools available to fulfil its mandate – ECB’s Praet
FXStreet (Mumbai) - European Central Bank (ECB) Board member Peter Praet said in a speech delivered at the Watchers XVI conference organized by the Center for Financial Studies in Frankfurt today, the decision by the ECB to expand its asset purchases was meant to send a clear signal that the central bank doesn't have an instrument vacuum.
Key Quotes:
"If monetary dominance is to prevail the central bank should not hesitate to use all the tools available to fulfill its mandate",
"Reaffirms the central pillar of monetary dominance which is our commitment to our mandate,"
"We acted because we saw a real risk of not achieving our price stability objective over the medium-term. One may argue that we could have tolerated a deviation of inflation from our aim (namely to stabilize inflation around levels not far from 2% in the price stability range) for longer. Yet in my view this would have extended the notion of the medium term to temporal dimensions that would have been hardly justifiable on the basis of accountability to our objective".
"The mandate is meaningful only if exercised and assessed within reasonable time limits".
Mar 11,2015
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EM FX suffers the same fate as majors, USD to blame – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team explains that broad based USD strength has led to many EM currencies weaken against the dollar.
Key Quotes
“It’s been an ugly week for EM. We’ve already seen new multi-year highs for USD/BRL, USD/CLP, USD/COP, USD/MXN, USD/ILS, USD/ZAR, USD/IDR, USD/KRW, USD/MYR, and USD/SGD.”
“This goes hand in hand with several cycle highs this week for the dollar against many of the majors, including JPY, AUD, EUR, DKK, NOK, and SEK.”
“It's pretty unusual to see so many USD highs being set at one time, which just goes to show just how broad-based the current dollar rally really is.”
“Meanwhile, MSCI EM has given up its 2015 gains and is now down on the year. It's currently testing the 62% retrenchment objective of the December-February bounce near 941.20, and a break would target the December low near 906.25.”
Mar 11,2015
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EUR/GBP close to a short-term bottom? – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at Rabobank note that technicals suggest it would be difficult for EUR/GBP to clear 0.70 level at the current position, and the pair might be close to an important short-term bottom.
Key Quotes
“While EUR/GBP continues to depreciate, the psychological level at 0.70 could prove tough to clear. The RSI at 16.8 (the lowest so far this year) implies that the sellers are seriously stretched. The MACD, which is another commonly used momentum indicator, flashes warning signals for the bears.”
“Hence, EUR/GBP could be close to an important short-term bottom.”
“Should a correction from oversold levels unfolds, as long as rebound is contained well below the 0.73/0.725~ resistance area, EUR/GBP should remain on track to fully reverse the rally from the 2006 low to the 2008 high.”
“Even if correction extends beyond the 0.73/0.725~, it would still require a close above the 2012 and 2014 lows at 0.77552 and 0.77672 (which will offer strong resistance) to shift the bias in favour of the bulls.”
Mar 11,2015
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EUR/JPY finds support at 128.30; low since August 2013
FXStreet (Tokyo) - The Euro continues depressed on Wednesday and after falling 135 pips from 129.70 against the Japanese Yen, the EUR/JPY found support at 128.30, the lowest level since August 2013.
The EUR/JPY has posted 7 negative days in the last 8 session, losing more than 600 pips from March 3 highs of 134.45 to today's lows.
Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 128.66, down -0.71% on the day, having posted a daily high at 129.99 and low at 128.34. EUR/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
Euro to Yen exchange rate levels
If the pair falls below 128.30, it will find next supports at 128.00 and 127.10. To the upside, resistances are at 129.15, 129.70 and 130.00.
Mar 11,2015
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Session Recap: USD extends gains, EUR in 12-y lows
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD rally remains intact on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index trading in levels last seen in September 2003 beyond the 99.00 mark. Market expectations for a sooner than estimated rates hike by the Fed continue to bolster the USD upside, sending EUR/USD to test fresh 12-year lows in the area of 1.0560.
In his speech in Frankfurt today, President Mario Draghi stressed that the current monetary policy is bolstering the ‘green shots’ in the region, adding that the ‘quantitative easing’ programme should support a rebound in inflation expectations; consumer process, in the meantime, could extend their trend lower – even into negative ground – just to revert direction towards year end.
The sterling continues to find decent support around 1.5000 vs. the dollar, practically ignoring January’s less auspicious releases from Industrial and Manufacturing Production, coming in below consensus.
USD/JPY managed to recover the 121.00 handle and beyond after briefly dropping to the 120.80 area overnight, and seems it is consolidating around 121.30/40 after recent fresh peaks just above 122.00 the figure.
Greece continues to be in the headlines today, although the attention suddenly shifted away from debt talks after the Greek government said its ready to seize German assets as compensation for Nazi war crimes.
Mar 11,2015
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USD/JPY is higher, but vulnerable to a round of risk aversion – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, expects USD/JPY to trade higher over time but near-term vulnerability might be seen in the pair as risk aversion falls.
Key Quotes
“After trading to fresh 7.5 year highs during Tuesday’s session, USDJPY is entering the NA session close to these levels.”
“Fundamental data included vaguely better than expected machine orders and PPI; however the core driver of USDJPY has been the USD side of the equation.”
“We expect USDJPY to trend higher over time, but see it less vulnerable than others in the near‐term as rising risk aversion will begin to suppress USDJPY upside risk.”
Mar 11,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates
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