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Bears grip European markets, sell-off resumes
FXStreet (Mumbai) - European indices resumed its downward spiral on Wednesday after the recovery seen yesterday, as the latest effort by the Chinese central banks seems to have failed to prop up the stock markets with the Shanghai composite index flipping back in to the red zone at close.
Losses came after US stocks ended Tuesday's session sharply lower, failing to keep the rally following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) action.
The central bank cut the RRR by 50 basis points, and slashed both the deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points in response to the latest huge market sell-off.
While some stocks in Asia rebounded on Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite index closed the session 1.3% lower, even after it had edged up for most part of trading hours.
Markets also seem to have ignored the latest PBOC announcement that the central bank will inject 140 billion yuan into the financial system through a short-term liquidity adjustment operation.
Germany's DAX 30 index drops -1.31% to 9995 while the UK benchmark FTSE 100 loses -1.45% to trade at 5993. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index is down nearly -1.50% and trades at 4497, and the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 also slips -1.6% to 3,166.
Aug 26,2015
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EUR/USD: parity now unlikely by year-end – BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at BTMU, sees the possibility of the pair reaching the parity level by year end quite unlikely at the moment.
Key Quotes
“Our bearish EUR/USD view will have to be adjusted to take account of this financial market turmoil triggered by the renminbi devaluation. Extreme risk aversion has clearly resulted in a further liquidation of euro short speculative positions, surely partly versus the renminbi, and hence our current year-end forecast of parity looks difficult to achieve”.
“However, the profile will still certainly remain for the euro to move lower. The relative monetary policy factor has weakened due to the financial market turmoil given the markets were close to positioned for a September rate increase but the deflationary shock stemming from the turmoil is more worrying for the ECB than it is for the Federal Reserve”.
Aug 26,2015
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USD/CAD well supported around 1.3250 – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities see the pair finding good support in the mid-1.3200s so far.
Key Quotes
“A confusing day for USDCAD yesterday as it rallied against a backdrop of a WTI rebound”.
“Our one-month correlation study suggests WTI has the greatest influence for USDCAD but so are broader measures of risk sentiment”.
“As such, we rather think that amidst the market hysteria, the CAD will underperform since the economy is weakening and the perception of slowing global growth will also weigh negatively on export prospects”.
“As such, we think the bias is for USDCAD to drift higher in the short-term even though our daily fair value estimate is well below spot and tracking around the 1.3100 figure (our Q3 target is 1.33)”.
“The 1.3250 should be decent support but in the event of a break below we think 1.3150/1.3200 will prove to be a solid congestion zone but price action since”.
Aug 26,2015
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USD/CAD flirting with 1.3300
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now recovering some ground lost vs. its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, with USD/CAD looking to regains the vicinity of 1.3300 the figure.
USD/CAD rebounds after US releases
The dollar found further support after US Durable Goods Orders surpassed initial estimates during July, expanding at a monthly pace of 2.0% vs. -0.4% forecasted and advancing 0.6% MoM excluding the Transportation sector.
The current recovery in crude oil prices is lending CAD some support, offering some respite amidst the ongoing weakness surrounding the commodities-related currencies.
USD/CAD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is losing 0.32% at 1.3294 with the immediate support at 1.3249 (low Aug.26) ahead of 1.3144 (low Aug.25) and then 1.3060 (low Aug.21). On the upside, a surpass of 1.3351 (high Aug.26) would expose 1.3400 (psychological level).
Aug 26,2015
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EUR/USD back above 1.14000 on Dudley comments
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD broke below 1.1400 after the release of the US durable goods orders report that surpassed expectations. The pair bottomed at 1.1351, reaching the lowest level since last Friday. It remained trading near the lows amid a stronger USD dollar in the market, but then bounced to the upside, after W. Dudley comments, climbing back above 1.1400
The president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank said that a rate hike in September seem less compelling for him than what it was a few weeks ago. The comments reduced expectations about a rate hike by the Fed in September. Still, the NY Fed chairman hopes that the central bank can raise rates on 2015.
EUR/USD back to Monday’s level
Thanks to Dudley’s outlook EUR/USD rose back above 1.1400; before it was trading with support at 1.1350 and resistance below 1.1400, around the levels it closed last week.
The euro surged on Monday, rising 400, surpassing momentarily 1.1700. It failed to hold and it pulled back sharply erasing all gains.
Aug 26,2015
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Dudley says September rate hike seems less compelling
FXStreet (Córdoba) - William Dudley, President of the Reserve Bank of New York said that a September rate hike seems less compelling now than a few weeks ago, fueling concerns latest economic developments could delay the liftoff.
Speaking at a press briefing in New York, he said that China slowdown is having significant impact on global economy and international developments have raised downside risks. However, he added that is important not to overreact to market developments and that he is confident Chinese authorities can handle challenges.
Aug 26,2015
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EUR/USD drops to weekly lows after US GDP
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD came under renewed pressure and printed fresh 6-day lows after data showed US gross domestic product grew at a faster pace than initially estimated in the second quarter.
US GDP expanded at a 3.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter up from the initial estimate of 2.3% growth and beating expectations of a 3.2% rise. Meanwhile, the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 2.1% in the Q2 versus 2.0% expected.
As for employment, separated data showed US initial jobless claims dropped to 271K in the latest week down from 277K and versus 274K expected.
Investors are closely monitoring US economic data as the Fed has made it clear that the timing of the lift-off will be data dependent.
The dollar strengthened across the board and dragged EUR/USD to a fresh low of 1.1248, last seen Aug 21. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1250, recording a 0.55% loss on the day and having already retraced all previous weekly gains.
Aug 27,2015
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FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has continued to move lower and posted fresh 1-week lows at the beginning of the New York session as the dollar was bolstered by better-than-expected US GDP and jobless claims figures.
EUR/USD extended losses and bottomed out at 1.1225 and continues to trade near lows, almost 500 pips below its Monday peak of 1.1712. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1235, recording a 0.68% loss on the day.
Investors are closely monitoring US economic data as the Fed has made it clear that the timing of the lift-off will be data dependent. Next on tap, data includes pending home sales and the Kansas Fed manufacturing index.
EUR/USD technical levels
In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.1213 (Aug 12 high), 1.1200 (psychological level) and 1.1130 (20-day SMA). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.1300 (psychological level), 1.1317 (200-day SMA) and 1.1364 (Aug 27 high).
Aug 27,2015
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EUR/USD Bulls are losing momentum
EUR/USD sellers stood their ground and buyers retreated in recent sessions as MACD (26, 12, 9) has fallen off below its median line.
On a 4hr chart, this technical condition may be taken by many trend-following traders as a trigger to liquidate long positions.
The fact that the MACD hasn't been under zero for at least one week of trading, reinforces the argument that room for further EUR/USD depreciation is there.
Aug 27,2015
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United States Redbook index (MoM) down to 0.2% in August 28 from previous 0.3%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 01,2015
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Investors keep scaling back EUR shorts – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Market Strategist Christian Lawrence at Rabobank assessed the performance of EUR and USD according to the last positioning report.
Key Quotes
“Net EUR shorts dropped heavily again last week. This is consistent with the better tone of the EUR in the spot market and suggestive of investors unwinding carry trades as concerns about Chinese growth hit hard”.
“Net USD longs continue to decline. Although expectations of a rate hike have been fluctuating between September and December a growing minority have been calling for a later move in 2016”.
Sep 01,2015
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United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.1, below expectations (52.6) in August
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 01,2015
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US nonfarm payrolls likely steady, ADP suggests - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at ING, expects that the US non-farm payrolls data is unlikely to show any significant deviation from its previous print as suggested by the outcome of recent ADP employment data.
Key Quotes
“With the ADP survey the only remotely accurate US non-farm payrolls directional indicator, the latest release might suggest that there is unlikely to be any significant deviation of Friday’s payrolls from the 215K figure printed last month.”
“The ADP employment total rose by 190K, up from a downward revised 177K in July (previously 185K). That said, a 13K monthly difference looks insignificant relative to the noise in this series, and a more reasonable description of the figures would be to say that there is no strong directional steer from the ADP this month.”
“One interpretation of this would be that the August payrolls figures will be close to the 215K result in July. But that would be to ignore the scope for occasional but sizeable divergences in these two series.”
“A better interpretation would be that anything is still possible from Friday’s labour report figures, and scope for market surprises in both directions remains, though the probabilities of this coming from the payrolls figure looks smaller at this stage.”
Sep 02,2015
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EUR/USD around 1.1240 on US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bouncing off session troughs near 1.1220, EUR/USD has managed to advance towards the 1.1240/45 area so far.
EUR/USD indifferent to US releases
The pair paid little to none attention to US Factory Orders, expanding at a monthly pace of 0.4% vs. expectations for a 0.9% advance. Orders excluding the Transportation sector have contracted 0.6% inter-month, down from the previous 0.6% gain.
Today’s US docket passed largely unnoticed amongst traders, who remain more concentrated in tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Friday’s Payrolls (220K exp.).
EUR/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.69% at 1.1235 with the immediate support at 1.1226 (low Sep.2) followed by 1.1207 (low Sep.1) and then 1.1170 (low Aug.31). On the other hand, a break above 1.1320 (high Sep.2) would open the door to 1.1333 (high Sep.1) and finally 1.1364 (high Aug.27).
Sep 02,2015
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Canada International Merchandise Trade above forecasts ($-1.3B) in July: Actual ($46.05B)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 03,2015
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US witnessing moderate pace of growth, Beige book indicates - RBC
FXStreet (Delhi) – Josh Nye, Economist at RBC Economics notes that the yesterday’s release of Fed’s Beige Book report, added to this evidence that the US economy is continuing to grow steadily.
The conclusion that can be drawn from that report is that while the economic and labour market backdrop would warrant the Fed beginning to withdraw monetary policy stimulus in September, recent turmoil in financial markets could keep the central bank on the sidelines.
Key Quotes
“Economic activity “continued to expand across most regions and sectors” during the reporting period (July to mid-August). It was noted that, in most cases, overall results “represented a continuation of the overall pace” noted in the previous report.”
“Reports on manufacturing activity were “generally positive,” indicating an improved assessment relative to the “uneven” characterization of the previous report.”
“Economic conditions have improved further since the July 29, 2015 FOMC meeting. In addition to second-quarter 2015 growth being revised upward to a sizeable 3.7% annualized gain, a variety of recent indicators (including retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, home sales, durable goods, and auto sales) point to solid momentum being carried into the third quarter.”
Sep 03,2015
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US labour market expected to remain solid – BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Currency Strategist at BTMU Lee Hardman has assessed the recent results from the US labour market as well as the prospects for tomorrow’s Payrolls.
Key Quotes
“The release of the latest ADP survey yesterday revealed that the US economy added 190k private sector jobs in August. The reading was a little weaker than consensus expectations but broadly in line with the average reading so far this year of 196k”.
“At face value the survey is signalling that the US labour market has likely continued to improve which is one of the conditions that the Fed has set to begin raising interest rates”.
“However, the release of the non-farm payrolls report on Friday still presents some downside risks”.
“A weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report could initially weigh modestly on the US dollar although it would most likely be seen as under-reporting employment growth”.
“The release yesterday of the Fed’s latest Beige Book revealed further evidence of tightening labour market conditions. “Several districts reported increasing wage pressures caused by labour market tightening”, although it suggests wage growth remained sluggish nationally”.
Sep 03,2015
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Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.6%)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 04,2015
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CAD: Economy turning towards revival led by export growth - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at Scotiabank feels that Canadian economy is taking a step towards economic revival as indicated by the robust export sector growth.
Key Quotes
“Export volumes climbed by 1% m/m. While the prior month’s gain was revised lower to post a gain of 3.6% m/m in June, which is over a percentage point less than originally thought, the fact that we got any growth in July is a plus off of what is still a strong June report.
“Import volumes climbed by 0.5% m/m in July and this signals stabilization in domestic demand.”
“If the data sticks in future revisions, then growth in Canadian export volumes is tracking at almost 12% for Q3 at an annualized and seasonally adjusted pace while import volumes are tracking a much softer gain that on net is driving a significant improvement in net trade as a contributor to GDP growth."
“Another encouraging point is that breadth was ok with some solid positives interspersed. In dollar terms, exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts advanced by 5.5% m/m and are up 14.7% as cap-ex related exports are solid. Exports of consumer goods were also higher by 7.3% m/m. Exports of agricultural and fishing products were also up by 3.1% m/m.”
Sep 04,2015
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USD/JPY wavers after US nonfarm payrolls
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY oscillated sharply in the minutes that followed the release of the so-awaited US employment report, which showed US economy created fewer jobs than expected in August.
US nonfarm payrolls came in at 173K in August down from 245K the previous month and below the 220K expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% versus 5.2% expected.
USD/JPY reacted negatively and hit a low of 118.60 before quickly bouncing to 119.61 only to return to the 119.00 zone. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.07, still 0.81% below its opening price.
Sep 04,2015
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EUR shorts keep scaling back – Rabobank





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, reviewed the last report on net speculators’ positioning.


Key Quotes


“Having dropped sharply the previous week net EUR shorts increased modestly suggesting that the recent aggressive unwind of EUR short positions may be running out of steam”.


“Net USD longs have edged lower having dropped more sharply the previous week. Expectations of a September Fed rate hike have been pared significantly over the past month although a robust set of August Labour data may lend the USD support this week”.







Sep 07,2015

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Australia: Aug business confidence deteriorates, conditions edge up
FXStreet (Bali) - Business conditions in Australia improves during the August period, to 11 from 6 in July, while business confidence receded further, coming at 1 vs 4 in July.
James Glenn, Senior Economist at NAB
"Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August, after losing a little ground last month, lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009. By component, both trading conditions and profitability recorded a notable improvement, but the employment index remains at very subdued levels.
"This outcome adds to the mounting evidence that AUD depreciation and record low interest rates are having the desired effect and helping to offset the weakness in mining. Even so, outcomes vary significantly by industry. Services sectors continue to outperform, while retail has improved considerably. The ‘bellwether’ wholesale industry remains weak, but probably reflects margin squeeze due to AUD depreciation as other leading indicators (aggregate forward orders and capacity utilisation) have improved."
"Confidence pared back further in August (from +4 to +1), unwinding the post budget gains and hitting its lowest level since mid-2013. While confidence tends to track conditions quite closely, recent financial market ructions and China growth concerns appear to have had an unnerving effect on business – albeit not enough to send confidence into negative territory (a good outcome given the degree of market volatility). Confidence eased in most industries, although mining and construction recovered some of last month’s sharp declines."
Sep 08,2015
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AUD/USD rallies and breaks away from hourly 50 SMA
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD had been pressuring the hourly 50 SMA to the upside on the Glencore news, but it is breaking even higher on the 10-minute sticks after a mixed NAB's business confidence.
The business conditions in Australia have improved during August to 11 from 6 in July, while business confidence dropped back coming at 1 vs 4 in July. AUD/USD was making a low of 0.6933, but has rallied to 0.6965 and away from the 50 SMA. The next set of data with come from China's trade data while Chinese stock markets were indicated to be opening negative 0.8% in the Shanghai Composite.
AUD/USD levels
To the upside, this break of the 50 SMA on the hourly chart brings in last week's high of 0.7062 as a target. To the downside, 0.6500 may have psychological importance, looking back on the longer-term charts, there are very little technicals until 0.6000. 0.6850 guards 0.6774 June 2004 low then 0.6280 2009 March lows and also 0.6122/.6010, the 2008 lows.
Sep 08,2015
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Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70
FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70, with Westpac chief economist Bill Evans noting that "doesn't expect confidence "vibe" around AUD to improve for remainder of this year."
Additional headlines - Bloomberg
Negative market perceptions around China and Australia's trade exposure to China are likely to persist
Sees EM woes continuing
Financial markets remaining volatile
Sep 08,2015
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USD/CHF retracement toward 0.9540 looks likely – SG
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to technical analysts from Societe Generale, the USD/CHF is undergoing a consolidation within a triangle, the upper limit of the formation at 0.99 - 1.00 is likely to provide resistance and from there a retracement looks likely towards 0.9540 and even towards 0.9260.
Key Quotes:
“The USD/CHF has been undergoing consolidation since March within a pattern similar to a triangle (current limits at 0.99/1.00 and 0.9260).The pair is approaching the upper limit which also corresponds to a multiyear descending trend resistance (log scale). “
“With the daily stochastic indicator approaching resistance levels, 0.99/1.00 is likely to be a key level. Only a sustained move higher will mean an extension in uptrend. Once these levels are achieved, a retracement looks more likely initially towards 0.9540 and even the lower limit at 0.9260.”
Sep 11,2015
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GBP/JPY capped by 20 SMA
FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/JPY is consolidating, currently trading at 185.79 having been as a high as 186.88 with a low of 185.70.
The crosses in the Yen have been well placed on the bid with bullish gains instigated in risk-on recoveries that left the Yen exposed for the end of the week. The BoE's sanguine tone today on recent market volatility kept the pound supported also while we await next week's BoJ at a time when markets are starting to suspect that the Central Bank may be moving towards additions easing measures in response to the deteriorating outlook for growth and inflation in Japan.
GBP/JPY levels
Technically, GBP/JPY has started to consolidate the rising channel as MACD on the hourly starts to turn less negative and the 20 DMA caps the upside on the 186 handle. Downside levels are 185.50/80 and 185.00 guarding the 200 SMA at 183.89.
Sep 11,2015
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AUD/USD upside running into tough resistance
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has scored some space above the 50 SMA at 0.7065 and is looking for a close in positive territory for the week, having made highs yesterday at 0.7099.
AUD/USD has staged a minor recovery on the start of the month's downtrend and lows that were down to test the resilience of the bulls at the 0.69 handle. The Australian jobs data and Chinese CPI's supported the Aussie towards the end of the week after a spell of disappointments for the Australian economy over the past few weeks having gained about 2% and ostensibly helped by the stabilization of Chinese markets and higher copper and iron ore prices, as noted by analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
AUD/USD rallies to find tough resistance at 0.7191
Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD is near term upside corrective and currently we would allow for a near term move higher to approximately 0.7165 (intraday Elliott count). "Rallies are expected to remain capped by the 0.7191 4 month downtrend and 0.7205 (last weeks high). The market will need to overcome the 0.7448 July 21 high in order to negate downside pressure longer term. Below 0.6980 will retarget the 0.6905 recent low and then 0.6774 the 2004 low longer term."
Sep 11,2015
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Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -6.4% to -6.8% in August
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 14,2015
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Speculators increased net bearish positions in 10-yr Treasury futures
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators pushed their overall bearish positions higher last week. The bearish bets are now at highest since July 7th.
The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, witnessed a weekly change of -21,131 net contracts to total a net position of -23,926 contracts in the data reported for September 8th. Long positions in 10-year futures dipped by -4,336 contracts and the short positions rose by by 16,795 contracts.
The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) boosted their overall bullish positions to a total net position of +128,067 contracts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury note in the US currently trades almost 1 basis point higher at 2.192%.
Sep 14,2015
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EUR/USD off highs, eases to 1.1340
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has faded the spike to multi-day tops in the vicinity of 1.1380 on Monday, now returning to the 1.1345/40 band.
EUR/USD propped up by risk aversion
Spot is extending its bullish momentum from last Friday, quickly advancing towards the upper-1.1300s while remains sustained by the Chinese-led risk aversion sentiment dominating the global markets so far.
Nothing worth noting data wise in Euroland, with Italian inflation figures and EMU’s Industrial Production, both in the pipeline later on in the day.
EUR/USD key levels
The pair is advancing 0.05% at 1.1341 facing the next hurdle at 1.1374 (high Sep.14) followed by 1.1498 (high Aug.23) and finally 1.1523 (high Aug.27). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1327 (low Sep.14) would target 1.1253 (low Sep.11) en route to 1.1147 (low Sep.9).
Sep 14,2015
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UK annualised CPI stalls in August




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday showed the UK annualised CPI in August stalled as expected, compared to the 0.1% rise seen in July.


Month-on-month, the CPI printed in line with the estimates at 0.2%, compared to the 0.2% drop seen in July. Core inflation dropped to 1.0% year-on-year as estimated.


As per the ONS report, “A smaller rise in clothing prices on the month compared with a year ago was the main contributor to the slight fall in the rate. There were also downward effects from changes in motor fuel prices and sea fares. Rising prices for soft drinks and for furniture and furnishings partially offset the fall.”








Sep 15,2015

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EUR/CHF losing altitude, near 1.0970
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Swiss franc is now reclaiming some of the ground lost to the single currency during the Asian trading hours, taking EUR/CHF to the 1.0970 area.
EUR/CHF upside capped at 1.1000
The upside momentum in the cross seen overnight has found tough resistance around the psychological barrier at 1.1000 today, triggering the current correction lower ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.
Data wise in the region, Swiss ZEW Survey-Expectations is due later, followed by the final CPI figures in the euro area during last month. Consensus expects headline prices to have risen 0.2% YoY while the core reading is seen at 1.0%.
EUR/CHF relevant levels
At the moment the cross is losing 0.06% at 1.0972 with the next support at 1.0922 (low Sep.10) ahead of 1.0878 (low Sep.9) and finally 1.0832 (low Sep.7). On the other hand, a break above 1.1011 (high Sep.15) would aim for 1.1049 (high Sep.11) and then 1.1100 (psychological level).
Sep 16,2015
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UK: Labour market strengthening, unemployment data awaited - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the UK labour market has been showing relatively healthy underlying dynamics in recent months, and we expect this to continue into July.
Key Quotes
“We see small downside risks to the 3MMA unemployment rate, which is likely to have notched down a tenth to 5.5% (consensus: 5.6%), putting it back at its March/April level.”
“We’ll also be looking carefully at private-sector regular pay growth, which is favoured by the MPC for signs of tightness in the labour market. This measure has been drifting up in recent months (3.4% y/y in June), sitting comfortably in a range that leaves it at its fastest rate of annual growth since mid-2008.”
Sep 16,2015
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ECB’s QE to stay longer – Danske Bank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank see the possibility that the ECB could extend its current ‘quantitative easing’ programme beyond the original date of September 16th.


Key Quotes


“ECB President Draghi was very dovish at the latest meeting at the beginning of September and based on this we expect the ECB to extend QE purchases beyond September 2016”.


“Our changed expectation comes mainly from the fact that the ECB now projects headline inflation to be only around 0.9% in Q2 16 and 1.2% in Q3 16 when the ECB is set to end QE purchases”.


“In our view, the ECB will continue its purchases if inflation is around these levels and we continue to believe that the ECB is too optimistic on its outlook for core inflation, as slack in the labour market will still be a headwind to higher wage growth in 2016”.








Sep 16,2015

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ECB’s QE to stay longer – Danske Bank
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 17,2015
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Fed interest rate decision showdown; 25bp hike? - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS explained that the FOMC September decision is released tomorrow, and we forecast the FOMC will hike the target range for the Fed Funds rate by 25bp.
Key Quotes:
"Along with a hike, we anticipate the forecasts and language may be used to reinforce an extremely slow pace of tightening and a purely data-dependent outlook for the Fed Funds rate. A result in line with our expectations would support the USD, in our view – monetary policy divergence remains a theme, even as all central banks feel the global dovish pressure of softening EM growth."
"While the FOMC meeting understandably is the key event in the US tomorrow, August housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed index for September are released in the US tomorrow as well.
Sep 17,2015
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EUR/USD testing 1.13 in early Tokyo dealing
FXStreet (Bali) - EUR/USD is picking up some upward momentum in the first minutes of Tokyo trading, currently being dealt around the 1.13 handle, having recovered from a late US dip towards 1.1275, with the bigger picture turned more bullish after a vigorous bounce overnight, following a mildly disappointing US CPI numbers.
Risk appetite improves, Euro defies logic
While the risk environment continued to support the bid tone for risk-on associated currencies such as the Aussie during Wednesday, which wouldn't have assisted the EUR/USD rise unless due to broad-based USD selling as main driver, as we saw, the current retracement in the Nikkei 225 off highs, together with last minute unwind of positions/position squaring ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision (due at 2GMT - 30% implied probability of rate hikes based on CME Fed funds), may have contributed to the latest 20 odd pips jump in the Euro.
EUR/USD technicals
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares her view on the EUR/USD, noting: "The 1 hour chart shows that the price is now around its 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators lost upward potential, and turned lower, approaching now their mid-lines."
"In the 4 hours chart, a neutral stance prevails, with the price unable to establish above a flat 20 SMA, and the technical indicators stuck around their mid-lines. The upcoming direction depends solely on FED's decision now, with the dollar seen appreciating should the Central Bank pull the trigger", Valeria adds.
Sep 17,2015
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EUR/USD drops to lows near 1.1160 ahead of European open




FXStreet (Mumbai) - EUR/USD failed to resist the 1.12 barrier and fell back into the red in the early moves, as the US dollar resumed its correction higher amid improving risk sentiment.

EUR/USD rejected at 1.1200

The EUR/USD pair trades -0.21% lower at 1.1166, hovering close to fresh session lows struck at 1.1163 some minutes ago. The main currency pair stalled its tepid recovery just ahead of 1.12 handle and slipped back in the negative territory as the USD bulls jumped back into the bids on the back of a better risk environment.

Moreover, markets are predicting a higher for the European stocks, following a stronger performance by the Asian equities, which diminish the demand for the euro as a safe-haven, thereby weighing on EUR/USD. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 futures, trade 0.50% higher while the DAX futures are also seen marginally higher.

Meanwhile, markets are likely to stay focussed on Fed officials’ speeches in the day ahead as the macro calendar for today’s trading session remains fairly light.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1206 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1245 (Sept 3 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1130 (Sept 9 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1088 (Sept 4 Low) levels.









Sep 22,2015
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USD strength pointing towards improving global sentiment – SocGen




FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that weakness in Asian/European equities yesterday morning was followed by a US rally, and that in turn took Treasury yields back up and dollar’s status as a funding currency or as a safe-haven currency for that matter is lost. Instead, it’s a barometer of the global mood which, is improving (today, at least).

Key Quotes

“The trouble is that the more the mood is positive, the more noise the FOMC hawks will make and the better the chance of a 2015 rate hike. At the moment, significant further dollar strength is dependent on both longer-dated US yields and equities rising. That’s possible on a quiet day like today, but if we get back to more risk-averse markets, the dollar is unlikely to out-perform the yen and Euro, even as all three do well against everything else.”

“The most visible loser as the better risk mood was the Euro. Psychologically, a close last night below the 200-day moving average (1.1209) and a failure to break back above it this morning puts the September low at 1.1087 in the market's sights, but I think it would take a move back through 1.10 to signal that this is more than just noise.”








Sep 22,2015
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US: Ocean of inflows pouring in – Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that M&A activities in the US have surged over the last three months with inflows at USD 54bn and accelerating US inflows have come notwithstanding the recent bout of risk aversion and possible Fed rate hikes.

Key Quotes

“YTD inflows now stand at USD 40bn surpassing last year’s inflows of USD 25bn. In the UK, capital inflows are also turning higher, in the last month alone amounting to USD 24bn. This helped the year-to-date inflows to touch USD 162bn, making it the largest beneficiary of any G10 nation.”

“By contrast, Canada has witnessed sizeable capital outflows over the three month period with outflows at USD 40bn. YTD outflows now stand at a whopping USD 94bn. YTD outflows are four times last year’s total inflows (USD 21bn). Similarly, outflows from Japan continue to rise at a steady pace with YTD outflows at USD 69bn, exceeding its outflows in 2014 of USD 39bn. Meanwhile, outflows from Euro area has softened.”











Sep 22,2015
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GBP/USD ignores Osborne’s hawkish comments


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The weak tone on the GBP/USD remained intact, pushing it to a session low of 1.5462 even though UK finance minister Osborne talked up BOE rate hike expectations.

Trades below hourly 200-MA, UK borrowing rises

The pair is trading around the support of the hourly 100-MA located at 1.5469 levels as the rise in the government borrowing overshadowed the comments from Osborne; who said the exit from loose monetary policy is coming.

The UK public sector net borrowing in August ticked higher to GBP 11.3 billion, compared to the estimate of GBP 8.8 billion. Heading into the US session, the spot could continue to track the broader market sentiment. Fed’s Lockhart speech later today could also influence the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 1.5460 (61.8% of June rally), under which the spot could drop to 1.54 levels. On the higher side, a break above the hourly 100-MA at 1.5526 could open doors for a re-test of 1.5568 (previous day’s high).








Sep 22,2015
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GBP/USD keeps falling, near 1.5450


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling pressure around the sterling is now gathering further traction, sending GBP/USD to test daily lows in the mid-1.5400s.

GBP/USD in 4-day lows

Spot is extending its weekly decline towards the 1.5450 area today against the backdrop of a generalized context of USD-strength. The pair continues to trade lower after last week’s rejection around the key resistance area at 1.5660, as market participants keep assessing the potential timing of a rates lift-off by the Federal Reserve.

In the data space, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing has widened to £11.30 billion, surpassing expectations at £8.65 billion. Across the pond, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the speech by Atlanta Fed D.Lockhart will be the main highlights.

GBP/USD significant levels

As of writing the pair is down 0.38% at 1.5448 and a breakdown of 1.5373 (low Sep.14) would aim for 1.5330 (low Sep.16) and finally 1.5299 (low Sep.8). On the flip side, the next up barrier lines up at 1.5569 (high Sep.21) ahead of 1.5660 (high Sep.18) and then 1.5717 (high Aug.26).








Sep 22,2015
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EUR/CHF purchasing power parity well above 1.20 – Swiss Economic Minister


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss Economic Minister was on the wires today stating the purchasing power parity of the EUR/CHF is well above 1.20 and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is working towards the same.

Key Quotes

Strong franc endangers price stability

Certain risk of deflation

It is clear that Switzerland remains an attractive place to do business







Sep 23,2015
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ECB adjusts the purchase process in its QE program


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Wednesday that the Governing Council has decided to adjust the purchase process in its bond-buying program and increase the proportion of purchases by national central banks rather than external managers in its quantitative easing (QE) program launched in March this year.

Starting on October 27, the Bank of France and the National Bank of Belgium will act as Eurosystem asset managers executing purchases, the ECB stated, and the contracts of two of its current external executing asset managers will be extended.

In a press release, ECB noted, "The executing asset managers will continue to conduct eligible ABS purchase transactions on explicit instructions from, and on behalf of the Eurosystem. The Eurosystem will maintain its role in undertaking price checks and due diligence prior to approving transactions."






Sep 23,2015
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No need to act in the short term – ECB’s Nowotny


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) member Edwald Nowotny, while speaking to Bloomberg today, played down the urge to do expand the ECB’s QE program by stating that there is no need to act in the short term.

Key Quotes On QE

Prolongation of QE may have a signalling effect. There is room to buy more of the same under QE. ECB could expand into other assets. Any QE expansion will need more thorough examination.

On Inflation

Core inflation rates have been rather stable. The ECB is clearly below its 2% inflation goal. Low oil price means incomes have improved.




Sep 23,2015
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German IFO Business Climate index surprises on the upside in Sept



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Business sentiment among German investors surprisingly improved in September, shrugging-off the sell-off in the Chinese and global stock markets. The result, however, did not reflect the latest turmoil caused by a false emission scam at the country's auto giant Volkswagen.

The headline Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 108.5 during September, above the 108.4 booked in August.

Meanwhile, the Current Assessment sub-survey, indicating current conditions in the euro area's number one economy, booked 114 points, after the previous month's figure of 114.8 and below estimates of 114.7 points.

Whilst, the Ifo Expectations Index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months - recorded 103.3, from 102.2 in August, after estimates had called for a reading of 101.4.





Sep 24,2015
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European stocks recover losses, pushes up Treasury yields



FXStreet (Mumbai) - European stock markets recovered losses in early session to trade positive, thereby pushing the yields on the safe haven treasury notes in the US higher.

The Euro Stoxx 600 index turned higher from the low of 344.62 to trade around 347.75 levels; up 0.23% on the day. Germany’s DAX index strengthened 63 points and France’s CAC index added 11.5 points. London’s FTSE index inched up 19 points.

Among stocks, VW shares rose 5.4% after the CEO resigned, but are still down 28% over the past week. German carmaker Porsche was up 3.2%, while France's Renault and Peugeot Citroen stocks also rallied. Oil relates stocks like Seadrill and Tullow Oil also suffered losses.

The yield on the safe haven 10-yr treasury note in the US advanced almost one basis points to 2.153%. Meanwhile, the more policy sensitive 2-yr yield strengthened 1.6 basis points to trade around 0.711% ahead of the Fed chairwoman Yellen speech.





Sep 24,2015
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EUR/USD hovers around 200-DMA while European stocks waver



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair recovered from the post-German IFO losses to trade in the sideways manner around its 200-DMA located at 1.1198 as the Europeans stocks swing between gains and losses.

Rejected at hourly 100-MA

The spot turned lower from its hourly 100-MA located at 1.1222 levels after the German IFO current assessment index ticked lower in September. However, the spot recovered back to its 200-DMA from 1.1184 as the European stocks fell back into moderate losses.

The US economic calendar offers weekly jobless claims and monthly durable goods order report today. Fed’s Yellen speech is also likely to dominate the wires later today.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.1222 (hourly 100-MA), above which gains could be extended to 1.1267 (hourly 200-MA). On the other side, support is seen at 1.1158 (hourly 50-MA) and 1.11 levels.





Sep 24,2015
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EUR/USD drops to 1.1140 as European stocks rebound sharply


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The shared currency ran through fresh sellers versus the American dollar at the European open, dragging EUR/USD to fresh session lows near 1.1150 levels.

EUR/USD eyes 1.1100

The EUR/USD pair trades -0.72% lower at fresh two-day lows of 1.1148, finally breaking the range-trade seen around 1.1170 levels in the late-Asian session. The offered tone around the EUR/USD pair grew bigger after the European stocks rebounded sharply higher at open, improving the risk sentiment heading into the crucial US GDP figures later today.

Stock on the European bourses bounced-back on Friday, after a weak performance seen yesterday and also shrugging-off mixed performance in Asian markets. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.84% to 3,074 while the German benchmark, the DAX leads its European rivals higher, up nearly 2% at 9,600 points.

EUR/USD remains undermined and meets fresh supply on every attempt to fill in the bearish gap as the buck remains in power across the board, after Fed Chair Yellen indicated a possibility of a rate-hike later this year in the overnight trades.

Meanwhile, focus now turns towards the third estimate of the Q2 GDP data from the US due later in the NY session as the EUR calendar remains data-quiet with nothing relevant on the cards.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1232 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1296 (Sept 24 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1120 (Sept 7 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1103 (Sept 23 Low) levels.






Sep 25,2015
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European stocks rebound at open, USD GDP in focus


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European indices opened the last trading session of the week on a bullish note, bouncing-back sharply after Thursday’s poor performance, as markets respond positively to the latest comments by Fed Chairwoman Yellen, indicating a rate-hike later this year.

Stocks on the European bourses completely ignored a mixed performance on the Asian equities and a weak Wall Street close, and traded with sizeable gains as focus now shifts towards the second-quarter GDP data from the US, which may throw fresh light on the US economic prospects.

The DAX extends recovery from VW scandal-led losses

Markets seem to have moved past the recent Volkswagen emissions-scandal and confidence in the German stocks appear restored as the benchmark index, the DAX 30 rebounds +2.24% to 9,639.

While the UK FTSE 100 index rallied +1.90% to 6,075. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index jumps 2.47% to 4,456, while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index gains 2.39% to 3,091.





Sep 25,2015
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EUR/USD: Fresh session lows amid rally in European stocks

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh session low of 1.1116 as the bid tone on the USD improved amid the rally in the European stock markets.

Risk-on rally weighs over EUR

The common currency turned lower in early Europe and extended losses to trade below its 100-MA located at 1.1144 levels. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index advanced 2.5%,capping the demand for funding currencies like EUR. Moreover, the Fed rate hike bets have become more sensitive to stock market moves off late.

Consequently, the uptick in the stock markets resulted in the uptick in the US dollar as well. Ahead in the day, the spot could be influenced by the Fed speak and the US Q2 GDP figure due for release later today.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair currently trades around 1.1125. The immediate support is located at 1.1105 (Sep 23 low), under which the pair could drop to 1.1052 (Mar 26 high). On the other side, resistance is seen at 1.1144 (100-MA) and 1.1192 (200-MA).






Sep 25,2015
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EUR/GBP upside appears limited at 0.7482 – Commerzbank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, the cross could face tough resistance around the 0.7480 area.

Key Quotes

“EUR/GBP broke out of its bull flag and retested its long term downtrend channel resistance line at .7396 on Thursday”.

“It fell short of the August peak at .7421 before it came off again. Together with the next higher .7482 May peak it should cap the currency pair”.

“Minor support comes in around the 200 day moving average at .7298”.









Sep 25,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates




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Gold bullish positions rose last week


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators and large traders increased their gold bullish positions higher in the data reported through September 22nd following the drop in the bullish positions in the previous two weeks.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge fund, witnessed a weekly change of +21,578 contracts to total a net position of +61,125 contracts. The weekly bullish positions rose by 7,855 contracts and the weekly bearish positions dropped by -13,723 contracts.

The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) added to their overall bearish positions to a net total position of -57,228 contracts through September 22nd.






Sep 28,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates




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IMF to revise downwards growth forecasts – IMF head Lagarde

FXStreet (Mumbai) - In an interview for a French Magazine Les Echos on Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde noted, the Washington-based fund is expected to lower its global economic forecasts, citing slower growth in the emerging economies as the key reason for the downgrade.

Key Quotes:

“We are in a recovery process whose pace is decelerating. There is a shift between emerging countries and developed countries.”

“The first ones, who were driving a global recovery not so long ago, are slowing down. The others are seeing their momentum accelerate. This should lead us to revise downwards our growth forecasts."

"A forecast of 3.3 percent growth this year is no longer realistic. A forecast of 3.8 percent for next year neither. We will however remain above the 3 percent threshold."

The IMF will publish revised economic forecasts in October.






Sep 28,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates




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US: Busy week ahead with NFP at the Centre stage – Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that as we look ahead there’s a lot to look forward to this week with economic data capped by the September payrolls reading this Friday.

Key Quotes

“Market consensus is currently running at 202k which is more or less in with the forecast of DB’s Joe Lavorgna at 200k.”

“Fedspeak will be closely watched again and it’s set to be a busy one with Dudley, Williams and Evans speaking today, Yellen and Dudley again on Wednesday, Brainard and Williams on Thursday and finally Fischer on Friday post payrolls.”

“If that wasn’t enough, then US politics may play a factor with the end of September marking the date of the end of the fiscal year for the US government with a new budget needing to be passed. That’ll bring the terms ‘debt ceiling’ and ‘government shutdown’ back to the forefront with the latter a possibility (although House Speaker Boehner’s resignation on Friday seen by many as perhaps reducing it).”






Sep 28,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates




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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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