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Gold consolidates ahead of the FOMC statement
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold trades in the sideways manner as investors avoid making big bets ahead of the US Fed policy statement due for release later today.
Focus on FOMC
There is widespread belief that the Fed would stay non-committal with regard to the timing of rate hike, while putting more emphasis on the overseas turbulence. Moreover, the financial markets across the globe have consolidated ahead of the Fed statement.
The USD index is trading largely unchanged on the day at 96.75, while the treasury yields have flattened out as well. Consequently, the metal traders lack fresh cues, thereby leading to consolidation in the narrow range of USD 1095-1100/Oz.
It remains to be seen if the Fed stays non-committed or comes out slightly hawkish by ignoring overseas turbulence.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1100, above which gains could be extended to 1105.93 (July 23 high). On the other hand, support is seen at 1095 and 1088.34 (July 27 low).
July 29,2015
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EUR/USD regains 1.1060 and beyond
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bottoming out in the 1.1030 area in early trade, a renewed buying interest has lifted EUR/USD back to the 1.1060/65 band.
EUR/USD capped by 1.1090
The pair has recovered the smile following a bout of weakness around the US dollar, dragging it to session lows when tracked by the USD Index (DXY). Absent releases in Euroland and with Greek developments momentarily in the back burner, the pair’s price action hinges almost exclusive on the risk appetite trends and USD-dynamics.
Later on in the session, the FOMC will conclude its 2-day meeting, with consensus amongst traders expecting the greenback could be supported by the Committee’s tone of the statement.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As of writing pair is up 0.01% at 1.1064 facing the next hurdle at 1.1085 (high Jul.29) followed by 1.1129 (high Jul.27) and then 1.1197 (high Jul.13). On the other direction, a breach of 1.1030 (low Jul.29) would target 1.1022 (low Jul.28) en route to1.0969 (low Jul.27).
July 29,2015
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United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) registered at 21, below expectations (30) in July
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 29,2015
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Banxico to keep rates at 3.0% - BBH
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Research Team at BBH expects the Mexican central bank to stand put at today’s meeting.
Key Quotes
“Mexico central bank meets and is expected to keep rates steady at 3.0%”.
“Mid-July CPI came in lower than expected at 2.76% y/y vs. 2.87% consensus”.
“This was the lowest since at least 1989, and moves further below the 3% target”.
“Real sector data remains fairly soft. Under these conditions, we do not expect Banco de Mexico to make good on its intent to hike rates this year”.
“USD/MXN is making new all-time highs this week, yet there simply has been no inflation pass-through to date”.
July 30,2015
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Chile Industrial Production (YoY) up to 1.7% in June from previous -3.3%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 30,2015
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German CPI prints lower than expected in July
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The preliminary data released by the Destatis revealed the inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year, compared to the expectation of 0.3%. The CPI stood at 0.3% in June.
Month-on-month CPI printed at 0.2%, slightly lower than the expected rise to 0.3% from the 0.2% contraction seen in June. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) printed in line with the estimates at 0.3% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year.
The slowdown in the inflation is mainly due to the sharp drop in the household energy and motor fuels prices (-6.2%).
July 30,2015
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USD/JPY moves beyond 124.50
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar continues to appreciate vs. its Japanese counterpart on Thursday, now pushing USD/JPY to fresh tops near 124.60.
USD/JPY stronger on US data
The pair is gathering further traction despite the US GDP for the second quarter expanded at an annual pace of 2.3% vs. 2.6% initially forecasted. In addition, Initial Claims have beaten expectations once again at 267K in the week ended on July 24th and inflation tracked by the Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 2.2% QoQ – Core PCE at 1.8% inter-quarter.
USD/JPY relevant levels
At the moment the pair is advancing 0.38% at 124.42 facing the next hurdle at 124.55 (high Jul.30) followed by 124.58 (high Jun.10) and then 125.05 (high Jun.1). On the other hand, a breakdown of 123.40 (low Jul.29) would open the door to 123.01 (low Jul.27) and finally 122.50 (low Jul.14).
July 30,2015
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US initial jobless claims rise less than expected
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the first time applications for unemployment benefits stayed near cyclical lows, a sign that the labor market continues to improve.
Jobless claims stay below 300K for the 21st consecutive week
The initial jobless claims rose to 267K in the week ended July 24, compared to the estimated rise to 270K from previous week’s print of 255K. The four-week average of claims, which provides a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, fell 3,750 to 274,750 last week.
The continuing claims rose 46,000 to 2.26 million in the week ended July 18. The so-called continuing claims covered the week during which the government surveyed households for July's unemployment rate.
July 30,2015
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IMF won't agree on Greek bailout without debt relief
FXStreet (Córdoba) - An IMF official stated that they will not back a Greek debt programme until Athens and its creditors find a way to collaborate to make the country’s debt sustainable, via Reuters. Comments from official support earlier FT story.
Official said crisis requires difficult decisions on all sides and the IMF won’t fund Greece without a debt relief pledge. However, the IMF would remain fully involved in Greek talks.
July 30,2015
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USD/JPY: buy the dips below 123.00 – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at Westpac Robert Rennie sees dips to sub-123.00 levels as buying opportunities.
Key Quotes
“We have stuck with a buy USD/JPY dips bias for a number of weeks now. We still see that as a story that will develop more fully through August/ September”.
“Likely weak Q2 GDP in Japan (August 17) and Fed lift-off (Sep 17) should be the catalysts for a reasonably significant move higher in USD/JPY”.
“Between now and then, use dips below 123 as an opportunity to buy”.
July 30,2015
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Eurozone core inflation ticks higher in July
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The preliminary data released by Eurostat on Friday showed the inflation as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) stayed unchanged at 0.2%, but core inflation ticked higher to 0.9% from 0.8% in June.
While prices have risen for the past three months, inflation remains well below the ECB’s goal of just under 2%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this week said low inflation was a risk to the Eurozone economy and added that the ECB shall have to extend its QE program beyond September 2016.
As per the ECB forecasts, inflation is expected to remain low in the short run before it picks up and rises to 1.5% in 2016. However, lower energy prices pose a major downside risk to the ECB’s inflation target.
July 31,2015
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US Dollar drops to lows near 97.30
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, tracked by the US Dollar Index, is surrendering part of the recent strong gains and testing session lows near 97.30 on Friday.
US Dollar remains above 97.00
After three consecutive sessions with gains, the dollar is now shedding part of the recent spike to the boundaries of 97.80 and navigating the lower end of the daily range in the 97.35/30 band, all amidst some profit-taking amongst investors and the usual month-end adjustment.
Next of relevance for USD will be the ECI (Employment Cost Index), expected at 0.6% during the second quarter, ahead of the final figures for the Consumer Sentiment tracked by the Reuters/Michigan index, seen at 94.0.
US Dollar relevant levels
As of writing the index is down 0.21% at 97.35 with the next support at 97.26 (low Jul.31) followed by 96.29 (low Jul.27) and then 96.26 (low Jul.14). On the other hand, a breakout of 97.97 (high Jul.17) would aim for 98.16 (high Jul.20) and finally 98.46 (high Apr.21).
July 31,2015
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Russian central bank cuts interest rate by 0.5%
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of Russia announced a cut in the key interest rate by 0.5% to 11.00% per annum in response to major macroeconomic indicators demonstrate further economy cooling.
According to the central bank, “the balance of risks shifts towards the considerable economy cooling despite a slight increase in inflation risks. According to the Bank of Russia forecast, consumer price growth will continue to slow amid slack domestic demand. Annual inflation will fall below 7% in July 2016 and reach the 4% target in 2017. The Bank of Russia will further decide on its key rate depending on the balance of inflation risks and risks of economy cooling.”
The bank added, “the economic situation in Russia will further depend on the dynamics of world energy prices and the economy’s ability to adapt to external shocks. At the same time the scenario with oil prices remaining below US$60 per barrel for a long time is more probable than it was in June.”
The decision comes at a time when Crude prices are on the way to its fifth consecutive weekly loss.
July 31,2015
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EUR/USD stays near lows after US data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD continues to trade at daily lows, having erased almost completely Friday’s gains, barely affected by the release of US consumer spending data.
US personal spending rises 0.2% in June
US Personal spending rose 0.2% in June, posting the smallest gain since February and matching expectations, while personal income rose 0.4% in the same month, slightly above the 0.3% rise expected.
Meanwhile, consumer inflation measured by PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in June and 0.3% YoY, while excluding volatile food and energy categories, PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM and 1.3% YoY.
EUR/USD edged slightly up but remained overall unchanged trading near lows at the 1.0950 area, down 0.3% on the day. The pair reached a high of 1.113 Friday’s NY session following disappointing US wage data, but failed to hold and retraced most gains.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, EUR/USD could find next resistances at 1.0995 (Aug 3 high/100-hour SMA), 1.1023 (100-day SMA) and 1.1113 (Jul 31 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.0940 (Aug 3 low), 1.0920 (Jul 31 low) and 1.0893 (Jul 30 low).
Aug 03,2015
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Gold drops after US consumer spending report
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices dropped into losses on Monday after the data in the US showed personal spending rose at a lower pace in June.
Stuck near 5-1/2 year lows
The metal is struggling near 5-1/2 year lows as markets believe the Fed is on track to raise interest rates in September. The official data released today showed personal spending growth slowed to 0.2% in June. The report also included downward revisions to the previous month’s personal spending and income figures.
Still, the Treasury yields have remained more or less unchanged, indicating the slightly dismal data has not had any effect on the rate hike bets in the US. Moreover, the personal spending has ticked higher in Q2, compared to the slowdown seen in Q1.
The metal currently trades 0.48% lower at USD 1089/Oz. Ahead in the day, the prices could be influenced by the US ISM manufacturing index and the sentiment on the Wall Street.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1100, above which the metal could target 1104.90 (July 27 high). On the flip side, support is seen at 1088 (July 27 low) and 1073.70 (July 24 low).
Aug 03,2015
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AUD/USD bounces off lows after ISM manufacturing index
FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD bounced from lows and trimmed intraday losses as the greenback receded across the board following US ISM leaked numbers, which came in below expectations.
US ISM manufacturing PMI disappoints
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI fell to 52.7 from a June reading of 53.5 and below the consensus estimate of 53.5. Meanwhile, the Markit manufacturing PMI for July came in at 53.8, matching expectations.
The US dollar weakened slightly with AUD/USD recovering from a low of 0.7762 to the 0.7290 area before finding resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7280, recording a 0.34% loss on the day.
AUD/USD vulnerable ahead of RBA decision
AUD/USD still trades close to its 6-year low scored on Friday at 0.7234, with the Aussie vulnerable amid low commodity prices and weak Chinese data. The Reserve Bank of Australia will decide on monetary policy on Tuesday, but the bank is expected to maintain key rate unchanged at 2.0%.
AUD/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, immediate supports seen at 0.7234 (6-year low Jul 31), 0.7200 (psychological level) and not much until the 0.7100/05 area (psychological level/Apr 24 2009 low). On the other hand, resistances could be found at 0.7317/22 (10-day SMA/Jul 30, Aug 3 highs) and 0.7365 (Jul 31 high).
Aug 03,2015
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Expect further easing by the CBR – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Vladimir Miklashevsky at Danske Bank assessed the recent decision by the CBR to cut rates by 50 bp.
Key Quotes
“The main reasons given by the central bank for the cut were “the considerable cooling of the economy despite a slight increase in inflation risks”.
“This reinforces the direction and credibility of monetary policy following the CBR’s U-turn in early 2015 as the economy started to shrink. The CBR reiterated its CPI forecast for June 2016, stating that annual inflation will fall under 7% and reach the 4% target in 2017”.
“The statement after the decision again sounded dovish and the CBR emphasized the importance of economic growth in monetary decision making”.
“As we expected, this week the CBR stopped its FX purchases once USD/RUB reached 60.00. The rouble strengthened after the halt in purchases then fell after the cut in the key rate to 61.00 against the USD”.
“We expect the rouble to weaken moderately in the long run, pricing gradual further rate cuts. We expect fair value to stay around 65.00-68.00 against the USD given the current oil price”.
“We expect the CBR to renew its FX purchases to replenish reserve funds if the oil price rebounds and USD/RUB dives under 60.00”.
Aug 04,2015
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NZD/USD swings back above 0.6600
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The NZD/USD pair halted a five-day decline and swung back higher into the green zone in the European session, with the Kiwi mainly tracking gains from its OZ counterpart after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its key rate unchanged while altering its exchange rate view.
NZD/USD extends gains from 0.6553
Currently, the NZD/USD pair trades -0.65% higher at fresh session highs of 0.6611, finally conquering 0.66 handle ahead of US open. The NZD/USD pair extends its recovery after the recent weakness as the New Zealand dollar piggy-backed the rebound seen in the Aussie, which lifted commodities currencies across the board.
The AUD/USD pair accelerated to near two-week highs after the RBA statement showed that the central bank was more satisfied with the AUD's current value. Moreover, recovery in gold and oil prices also supported the upbeat momentum in the Kiwi pair.
Meanwhile, US factory orders and Fonterra’s fortnightly dairy prices auction from New Zealand are expected to remain that main highlights in the New York session. The GDT index price dropped by 10% last fortnight, it was the ninth consecutive fall in prices and came in worse than estimates.
NZD/USD Levels to consider
To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.6644 (July 27 High) levels and above which it could extend gains 0.6683 (July 31 High). To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.6556 (July 27 Low) below that at 0.6503 (July 20 Low) levels.
Aug 04,2015
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Fed, BOE rate hikes pose no risk to financial markets - BOJ's Iwata
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Speaking at the Upper House Financial Affairs Committee earlier today, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata noted that increases in the borrowing costs of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England do not pose a risk to financial markets and the BOJ will not hike rates to prevent the yen from a steep fall.
He also said the BOJ is conducting simulations about how to end its ultra-loose monetary policy, including its purchase of exchange-traded funds, but he declined to provide any specific strategy for the time being.
Key Quotes:
"I don't see these moves as a risk."
"It could be fully priced in. In that case, there wouldn't be much reaction. Central banks conduct monetary policy for price stability, not for currencies."
Aug 04,2015
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Greek FinMin says expects bailout talks to be completed in the next days





FXStreet (Córdoba) - Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos said he expects talks with the country’s lenders about a third bailout would be completed in the next few days.


He said talks on privatization are going better than expected and there were no significant disagreements.


Quotes via Reuters:


“We have submitted a proposal to them. They said they would examine it and come back to us.

There were small divergences in views. I don’t think there will be a problem. Discussions have gone better than I expected”.





Aug 04,2015

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GBP/JPY buoyed ahead of “Super Thursday”
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bid tone on the GBP recovered once again after, pushing the GBP/JPY back above 194.00 levels ahead of important data events due in the next session, which is being labelled as Super Thursday.
Focus on UK Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR)
The UK data/event calendar on Super Thursday includes BOE rate decision. Minutes, Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR) – which will be followed by the press conference. However, the market seems focused on the QIR and Carney’s comments, which could offer clues regarding the timing of the interest rate hike in the US.
Ahead of the key UK events tomorrow, the cross could be influenced by the US ADP employment report and ISM figure due for release today.
GBP/JPY Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 194.61 (July 30 high), followed by a major hurdle at 195.88 (June 24 high). On the other hand, support is seen at 193.22 (daily low) and 192.37 (50-DMA).
Aug 05,2015
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EUR/USD pares losses, recovers to 1.0875
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The single currency sees modest recovery from fresh session lows versus the US dollar in the mid-European session, with EUR/USD still keeping the red below 1.09 handle. The major struggles to recover losses completely as Fed Lockhart’s rate lift-off comments continue to keep the European currency undermined amid the latest chatter surrounding Greece.
EUR/USD rises from 1.0849 lows
The EUR/USD pair trades -0.10% lower at 1.0870, striving for 1.09 handle. The EUR/USD pair maintains the offered tone, although erased more than half its slide, as the traders continue to favour the US currency ahead of a series of US fundamentals to be published later today.
Moreover, the euro remained largely subdued and continued to trade in a tight range on ignoring the upbeat services PMI readings from across the currency bloc and remaining under pressure on the back of a stronger USD.
Meanwhile, markets now turn their attention towards US macro updates due later in the New York session as the session ahead is likely to bring more incentives for the pair.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.0885 (Today’s High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.0908 (July 17 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.0810 (July 21 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.0712 (March levels).
Aug 05,2015
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ADP Reaction: GBP/USD tests 1.5650 resistances after weak data
FXStreet (New York) - The British Pound is extending its rally from 1.5525 against the US Dollar following the weak ADP employment report that showed a lower than expected number in July. GBP/USD is now testing the 1.56.50 area.
Ugly ADP report with 185K new private payrolls in July, well below the 215K expected by market. In addition, June data was revised 8K down from 237K to 229K. The dollar got a hit.
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5644, up 0.53% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5653 and low at 1.5526. GBP/USD spot is in overbought territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.
GBP/USD levels
If the pair breaks above 1.5600, it will find next resistances at 1.5675 and 1.5690. To the downside, supports are at 1.5620, 1.5600 and 1.5570.
Aug 05,2015
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USD/JPY rallies to 2-month highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY took a violent turn and pushed to fresh 2-month highs with no clear catalysts behind the move, after testing daily lows weighed by disappointing ADP employment report.
USD/JPY bottomed out at 124.00 as the knee-jerk reaction to private payrolls data but bounced sharply, overshooting previous highs. The pair picked up momentum following above-expectations July ISM services PMI for US (60.3 vs 56.2 exp) and climbed to a high of 124.86, last seen on Jun 8.
At time of writing, the pair is trading at 124.60, recording a 0.19% gain on the day, the third in a row as investors gear up for the US government nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
USD/JPY levels to watch
As for technical levels, USD/JPY could find next resistances at 125.00 (psychological level) and 125.67 (Jun 8 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 124.00 (psychological level/Aug 5 low), 123.79 (Aug 4 low) and the 123.55/51 area (50-day SMA/Jul 31 low).
Aug 05,2015
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US ISM non-manufacturing index at decade high in July
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The service sector in the US economy expanded at a fastest rate in a decade with a sharp rise in employment, strengthening rate hike bets in the US.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing index to 60.3, the best reading since August 2005 and well above the June’s 56.00 reading. All major components of the gauge, including orders and employment ticked higher.
He details of the report reveal the employment gauge jumped to 59.6 from 52.7, the biggest one-month advance since records began in July 1997. The new orders measure rose to 63.8 from 58.3. Both measures were the highest since August 2005.
2-year yield rises again
The two-year yield, which mimics rate hike expectations, has ticked higher by almost three basis points to 0.756%. The yield had dropped into losses earlier today after the ADP report showed the private sector job additions in July slowed down considerably.
Aug 05,2015
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EUR/USD revisits lows after ISM data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD came under pressure and fell to retest daily lows as the dollar pick up momentum following stronger-than-expected ISM services and composite PMIs.
EUR/USD pulled back from a high of 1.0932 scored on the back of disappointing ADP employment data but gains were offset by solid ISM figures. EUR/USD fell to 1.0849 but managed to hold barely above previous daily lows. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0865, 0.13% below its opening price.
EUR/USD technical levels
As for technical levels, next supports are seen at 1.0847 (Aug 5 low), 1.0808 (Jul 20 low) and 1.0800 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.0932 (Aug 5 high), 1.0987 (Aug 4 high) and then 1.1025 (100-day SMA).
Aug 05,2015
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GBP/USD robust ahead of BoE - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank explained that GBP/USD was rising off support at the 50 day MA (1.5563), its momentum indicators hinting to a modestly bullish bias. Trend indicators are muted, and we await a break of the recent three-week range between 1.5467 and 1.5690.
Key Quotes:
"GBP is rising modestly vs. the USD and outperforming all of the G10 despite softer domestic PMI data, with strength driven by flows out of Europe as market participants look to relative policy ahead of Thursday’s BoE events—including the policy decision, concurrent release of minutes as well as the quarterly Inflation Report.
The Bank Rate is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.5%, with focus centered on MPC members’ voting as well as the assessment of ‘inflation probabilities’ in light of recent concerns about the disinflationary impact of exchange rate strength."
Aug 05,2015
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GBP/USD robust ahead of BoE - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank explained that GBP/USD was rising off support at the 50 day MA (1.5563), its momentum indicators hinting to a modestly bullish bias. Trend indicators are muted, and we await a break of the recent three-week range between 1.5467 and 1.5690.
Key Quotes:
"GBP is rising modestly vs. the USD and outperforming all of the G10 despite softer domestic PMI data, with strength driven by flows out of Europe as market participants look to relative policy ahead of Thursday’s BoE events—including the policy decision, concurrent release of minutes as well as the quarterly Inflation Report.
The Bank Rate is widely expected to remain on hold at 0.5%, with focus centered on MPC members’ voting as well as the assessment of ‘inflation probabilities’ in light of recent concerns about the disinflationary impact of exchange rate strength."
Aug 05,2015
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EUR/JPY: 0.7186 downtrend in tact - CB
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained the technical conditions surrounding EUR/GBP.
Key Quotes:
"EUR/GBP has failed at the 55-day ma at 0.7127, and the 0.7186 2015 downtrend, and is back under pressure. The market has recently sold off to the base of a 6-year down channel and it is possible that this 0.6937/67 zone will again hold. This is key support – it will act as the break down point to the 0.6571/41 the 2007 low.
Downtrend at 0.7186
A longer term negative bias is entrenched below the 2015 downtrend, this is located at 0.7186."
Aug 05,2015
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Euro Stoxx 600 pushed lower by weakness in energy and mining shares
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Euro Stoxx 600 retreated on Monday due to the losses in the energy and mining shares, while investors await latest cues regarding the timing of the first rate hike in the UK.
The index is down 0.3%, after rising 1.3% on Wednesday. The energy shares came under renewed selling pressure tracking the drop in the oil prices.
Danish biotechnology company Novozymes; down 11.52% on the pan-European index after cutting its sales growth forecast. Shares in Deutsche post and Zurich Insurance Group also suffered more than 2% losses due to weak results.
Weaker oil prices pushed shares in Tullow Oil lower by 5.43%. Mining firms like Anglo American, Antofagasta also suffered losses. Meanwhile, Shares in National Bank of Greece rose 23%, the top performer so far, after falling by the same margin on Wednesday.
Among regional indices, France’s CAC 40 index was down 0.1% and the UK FTSE 100 index was 0.2% lower. Germany’s DAX index rose 0.1% after data showed an increase in German factory orders in June.
Aug 06,2015
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BOE MPC leaves interest rates unchanged
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Thursday voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5% as expected.
The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of the purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at GBP 375 billion. The previous change in Bank Rate was a reduction of 0.5 percentage points to 0.5% on 5 March 2009.
Aug 06,2015
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BOE MPC vote split – 8:1 – for the first time in 2015
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of England (BOE) latest monetary policy minutes released on Friday showed monetary policy committee is divided for the first time this year over whether to raise interest rates from their historic low of 0.5%.
According to minutes, only one member - Ian McCafferty - voted in favour of a rate rise. Prior to the minutes' release, markets were expecting a 7-2 split. The last time the split in voting was seen in December 2014 when both Mr McCafferty and Martin Weale voted in favour of a 25 basis points increase.
Aug 06,2015
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Dollar strength remains well and sound – Societe Generale
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Kit Juckes, Strategist at Societe Generale, reiterates its bullish view on the dollar following recent Non-farm Payrolls in the US economy.
Key Quotes
“Friday’s US labour market report has left the market in stalemate but we remain bullish of the dollar, and like longs in USD/CAD, shorts in NZD/USD and shorts in EUR/GBP”.
“US employment growth slowed slightly, but at 2.1% is robust. Wage growth came in at 2.1% too, though the non-supervisory measure slowed to 1.8%”.
“The unemployment rate stayed at 5.3%, though if you add another decimal place, it’s edging lower”.
“The market reaction was for 2yr yields to rise by about 2bp, while 10yr yields have fallen by 4bp. The 2yr swap rate that drives my baby FX models tried and failed to break 1%and is currently at 99bp”.
Aug 10,2015
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Buy the dips towards 123.20 in USD/JPY – BBH
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH sees buyers of the pair lining up in the area of 123.20.
Key Quotes
“The dollar made a new marginal high of almost JPY125.10”.
“However, there was momentum, and despite the constructive US employment data, the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped”.
“Despite a number of attempts since early June, has only managed to close above JPY125 once. That proved to be a near-term top”.
“The dollar's technical condition deteriorated with the reversal after the US employment report. Initial support is seen near JPY 124.00, which also corresponds to the 20-day moving average. Look for better dollar buyers on a move toward JPY123.20”.
Aug 10,2015
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EUR/USD weaker, testing 1.0940
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is now losing the grip vs. the dollar, dragging EUR/USD to daily lows in the 1.0940 area.
EUR/USD gains limited around 1.0980
The pair remains trading in a choppy mood at the beginning of the week, with gains appearing to be limited by recent tops in the 1.0980/85 band. Spot is losing upside momentum against a backdrop of scarce data releases in both Euroland and the US economy while market participants keep digesting the recent results from the US labour market.
Investor’s Confidence tracked by the Sentix Index and the US Labour Market Conditions Index are due later, ahead of the speeches by Fed’s Fischer and Lockhart.
EUR/USD relevant levels
As of writing the pair is retreating 0.23% at 1.0940 and a breach of 1.0855 (low Aug.7) would open the door to 1.0848 (low Aug.5) and then 1.0811 (low Jul.11). On the other hand, the next resistance lines up at 1.0990 (high Aug.4) ahead of the psychological level at 1.1000 and finally 1.1080 (high Jul.29).
Aug 10,2015
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NZD, AUD risk further downside vs. USD – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities reiterated their bearish view on the Antipodean currencies against the greenback.
Key Quotes
“Overall while we note our end-Q3 forecasts for AUDUSD (0.74) and NZDUSD (0.66) are rather close to current levels, the near-term risks remain on the downside”.
“This is due, however, to broader trends in currency markets rather than the recent actions of the PBOC”.
“As commodity prices remain under downward pressure, our expectations for a September rate hike from the Federal Reserve is likely to remain the single dominant factor, we think, in FX markets in coming weeks”.
Aug 11,2015
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EUR/CHF in fresh highs near 1.0870
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Swiss franc continues to depreciate vs. the single currency on Tuesday, lifting EUR/CHF to the area of 1.0870.
EUR/CHF in multi-month tops
The cross is trading in the highest level since the SNB has abandoned the peg in mid-January, advancing towards the upper-1.0800s following increasing outflows from the safe haven CHF.
The (kind of) solution in the Greek front following the agreement between the country and its creditors last month coupled with today’s pre-deal on a third bailout package has allayed fears amongst investors regarding a ‘Grexit’ scenario, favouring further positioning in the euro.
EUR/CHF relevant levels
As of writing the cross is up 0.24% at 1.0864 facing the next resistance at 1.09 and 1.10 (both psychological levels). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0760 (low Aug.10) would open the door to 1.0709 (low Aug.7) and finally 1.0676 (low Aug.6).
Aug 11,2015
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EUR/USD falters ahead of 1.1100
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro reached a fresh August high against the dollar on Tuesday after Greece and its creditors reached a bailout deal, but faltered ahead of the 1.11 mark.
EUR/USD reached its highest level since Jul 31 at 1.1087, but failed to stay at highs and pulled back to the 1.1030 zone. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1048, still up 0.27% on the day.
Greece and international lenders struck a third bailout deal on Tuesday and the Eurogroup will reportedly meet on Friday to approve the agreement.
EUR/USD technical levels
As for technical levels, next resistances are seen at 1.1087 (Aug 11 high), 1.1093 (50-day SMA) and 1.1113 (Jul 31 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.1032 (100-day SMA), 1.1000 (psychological level) and 1.0960 (Aug 11 low).
Aug 11,2015
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USD/CAD neutral near-term, bullish in the longer run – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities have reiterated their bullish stance on spot in the longer term horizon.
Key Quotes
“The big question is whether the RMB devaluation will get in the way of a Fed hike in September”.
“Front-end probabilities have ratcheted lower since last Friday’s payrolls where the September meeting was penciled in at about a 60% chance of a hike to about 40% now”.
“We do not think the events take a September hike off the table and instead it will be prudent for the Fed to see how events unfold”.
“We would be hesitant to chase the move lower in USDCAD and we think playing the range in USDCAD for the day ahead is appropriate, though we prefer to be neutral. Longer-term, we remain USDCAD bulls”.
Aug 12,2015
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RUB could pick up pace in the upcoming months – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at BAML, the demand for the Russian currency is expected to gather further traction in the next months.
Key Quotes
“We keep our current RUB55/USD forecast unchanged for now”.
“Despite the likely short-term pressure from capital outflows and forced EXD deleveraging, the RUB could start receiving support from the likely reversal of massive FX positions in Russia”.
“As a result, Russia has been buying FX since 3Q13 and throughout 2014. Last year, this buying was rather aggressive”.
“According to the CBR, the Russian population and corporates bought US$30.4bn (only FX cash) in 2014, including over US$15bn in 4Q alone”.
“In 1Q 2015, banks and corporates actually started to sell, with net selling reaching US$2.8bn. Nevertheless, massive FX positions remain and will likely be reversed with a much weaker RUB”.
Aug 12,2015
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GBP/USD extends gains above 1.5600
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD has pushed to fresh highs above 1.5600 early in the New York session as US traders join in to find out China weakened the yuan again on Wednesday.
GBP/USD managed to rise past yesterday’s highs and climbed to a 6-day peak of 1.5629 as the greenback falls across the board. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5612, recording a 0.29% gain on the day.
Earlier, UK reported unemployment rate stood unchanged at 5.6% in June, while average weekly earnings excluding bonus were unchanged at 2.8%YoY. The US calendar is pretty light, with JOLTS jobs opening due at 14:00 GMT (5.300M exp).
GBP/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances at 1.5629 (Aug 12 high), 1.5650 (Aug 5 high) and 1.5700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5533 (Aug 12 low), 1.5500 (psychological level) and 1.5457 (Aug 10 low).
Aug 12,2015
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Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY): 1.3% (July) vs 1.2%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Aug 13,2015
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USD/JPY revisits highs after US retail sales
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY reacted positively and made a marginal new high following the latest string of US data which showed retail sales came in stronger than expected in July, while initial jobless claims disappointed.
Retail sales leave door open for September liftoff
US retail sales rebounded in July, rising 0.6% from a 0.3% fall printed in June and beating expectations of a 0.5% increase. Excluding autos however, sales grew 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% of forecast.
Separated data showed initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 274,000 in the seven days ended August 8, more than the 270,000 expected. Import prices fell by 0.9% in July, led by lower fuel prices.
USD/JPY stretched to a high of 124.59 following data, but lacked momentum to extend gains and remained little changed in the aftermath. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 124.52, up 0.26% on the day, from 124.43 pre-data.
USD/JPY levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, resistances could be found at 124.59 (Aug 13 high), 125.27 (Aug 12 high) and 125.66 (Jun 8 high). On the other hand, immediate supports are seen at 123.78 (Aug 12 low), 123.60 (50-day SMA) and 123.32 (Jul 29 low).
Aug 13,2015
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US Data reaction: GBP/USD off highs; falls to daily lows
FXStreet (New York) - The British Pound is currently falling against the US Dollar as the Greenback is trading higher following the latest set of economic indicators in the US. After falling 35 pips from 1.5635 in the last few minutes, the GBP/USD is now testing lows at 1.5600.
The US retail sales rose 0.6% in July, slightly better than the +0.5% expected. Ex-autos reported an increase of 0.4%, less than 0.5% expected but the Census Bureau reported a huge revision in ex-autos for June: from -0.1% reported initially to +0.4% informed now.
Jobless claims reported 274 initial claims requested in the August 7 week. Previous week was revised 1K down to 269K.
Dollar up
The US Dollar index is trading higher today for the first time in seven days as the DXY is extending its recovery from 96.00 area to current 96.50. As previously reported, the US Dollar index is performing an inside day as the EUR/USD is in pullback mode.
GBP/USD performance
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5603, down -0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5639 and low at 1.5600. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.
GBP/USD levels
As for the short term, if the pair breaks down the 1.5600 level, it will find supports at 1.5560 and 1.5530. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5635, 1.5660 and 1.5680.
Aug 13,2015
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(Too) Early signs of rising Swedish inflation - UBS
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Swedish inflation data surprised positively on Thursday, thereby strengthening the SEK significantly. The UBS analyst team notes that even though this is good news for the Swedish Riksbank and its quantitative easing program (QE), numerous risks remain that should prevent an early retreat from easy monetary policy.
Key Quotes
“Notably, underlying inflation, excluding energy prices, rose to a five-year high at 1.5%. While this is good news for the Swedish Riksbank and its quantitative easing program (QE), numerous risks remain that should prevent an early retreat from easy monetary policy. As the US Federal Reserve approaches its first rate hike in almost a decade, higher-yielding currencies should still perform better than the SEK”.
“Swedish inflation expectations remain low and do not reveal much impact from QE. Furthermore, the Chinese currency devaluation should mute Swedish import prices, whose growth rate remains sluggish”.
“Last but not least, the Riksbank will likely be wary of reducing its easing bias before the major Swedish wage negotiations take place around the turn of the year”.
“Markets seem to have positioned themselves for another rate cut. Swedish two-year bond yields have fallen into deeply negative territory, not far off from Swiss ones. As such, we see little room left for EURSEK to rise. The pairing should continue trading in a 9.10 to 9.60 range.
“There is a high chance of another rate cut and an extension of the QE program at the next Riksbank monetary policy meeting on 3 September. No action would likely pull EURSEK down toward 9.20. Over a six to 12-month time horizon, it should fall closer to 9.00, as Swedish inflation trends will likely continue improving as inflation expectations recover”.
Aug 13,2015
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WTI drops to the $42.00 area
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Crude oil prices have accelerated its decline on Thursday, dragging the barrel of West Texas Intermediate to the vicinity of the $42.00 mark.
WTI in fresh multi-year lows
The re-emergence of the bid tone around the US dollar has been weighing on crude oil prices since early trade today, sending the barrel of WTI to print fresh lows around the $42.00 handle, levels last seen in March 2009.
Collaborating with the downside, US retail sales surpassed expectations during July, pointing to a healthy increase in consumer spending and somehow leaving the door open for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month.
WTI levels to watch
At the moment WTI is losing 2.61% at $42.19 with the next support at $42.07 (low Aug.13) followed by $40.07 (monthly low March 2009) ahead of $34.03 (monthly low February 2009) and then $30.28 (monthly low December 2008). On the flip side, a break above $46.94 (high Aug.3) would aim for $48.62 (high Jul.31) and finally $49.52 (high Jul.29).
Aug 13,2015
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USD/CAD outlook remains neutral to bearish – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, noted the neutral-to-bearish stance around the pair in the near term.
Key Quotes
“CAD remains sensitive to its core drivers of relative policy and oil prices, the former providing for most of the recent CAD strength through a week in which markets have reassessed the Fed path in light of China as well as the softened tone from both Fed Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley”.
“CAD is trading in tandem with the 2Y U.S.-Canada yield spread, having broken its tight correlation to oil prices over the past week”.
“Near term risk lies with the U.S. releases and their influence on expectations for the Fed path—providing for a tightened focus on the U.S. import price and retail sales figures”.
“The MACD is increasingly biased to further downside and the RSI is threatening a near term break below 50. USDCAD has made a material break of its short term MA’s, closing well below its 21 day MA for the first time since late June”.
“Near term support is expected between 1.2920 and 1.2950, the levels closely representing the real body of the July 29 hammer doji. The 1.3000 will remain psychologically important and we look to near term resistance at 1.3100 with gains likely to be restrained above 1.3150”.
Aug 13,2015
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GBP/USD rises to daily highs after US sentiment data




FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD pushed higher and printed fresh daily highs above 1.5650 as disappointing consumer sentiment data offset a better-than-expected US PPI reading.


The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 92.9 in August, according to a preliminary reading, versus 93.5 expected.


GBP/USD extended intraday gains and posted a high of 1.5656 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.5649, recording a 0.26% rise on Friday.


In the absence of economic data for the rest of the session and with Chinese volatility having decreased significantly today, investors’ attention now turns to events that could shed light over a potential Fed hike in September.


GBP/USD levels to watch


In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances at 1.5656/58 (Aug 14 & 12 high), and 1.5700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5588 (Aug 14 low), 1.5573 (Aug 13 low) and 1.5533 (Aug 12 low).







Aug 14,2015

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Turkey’s Central Bank keeps key rates on hold
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The central bank of Turkey (TCMB) kept key interest rates unchanged on Tuesday amid the volatile political situation in the country and persisting uncertainty.
The monetary policy committee of the Turkish central bank decided on Tuesday to keep its one-week repo rate at 7.50% and the overnight borrowing rate at 7.25%, unchanged from July. The overnight lending rate was also kept at 10.75%, while the primary dealers' overnight borrowing rate remained at 10.25%.
The central bank noted in its statement, "Loan growth continues at reasonable levels in response to the tight monetary policy stance and macro prudential measures. The favorable developments in the terms of trade and the moderate course of consumer loans contribute to the improvement in the current account balance,"
"External demand remains weak, while domestic demand contributes to growth moderately. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the announced structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly."
"Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the improvements in the inflation outlook. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors that affect inflation will be monitored closely and the cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.”
On Monday, Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci said, ‘Interest rates need to fall’, reviving the earlier attempts of the Turkish government to influence the central bank.
Aug 18,2015
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Sell rallies in AUD/USD – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank recommends selling the pair on occasional bullish attempts.
Key Quotes
“While the timing of last week’s plunge in the CNY took us by surprise, we have been calling for a weakening in the value of the CNY vs. the USD for some time as the Chinese authorities seek to more closely align the value of the currency to the forces of slow growth and disinflation”.
“On the back of the move, we have revised up our forecasts for USD/CNY to 6.70 on a 12 mth view and, while we are forecasting that AUD/CNY could hold relative stable near current levels in the coming 12 months, this view is based on our assumption that AUD/USD will fall towards 0.69”.
“Concerns over Chinese growth are being mixed concerns over a faltering economy recovery in Japan with a worsening growth outlook for Indonesia”.
“Against this backdrop we still see scope for further RBA easing this cycle and look to sell AUD/USD into rallies. Initial resistance is likely to be provided by the 100 and 200 day smas near AUD/USD0.7370”.
Aug 18,2015
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USD/CAD drops to 1.3080 on US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing part of its early shine vs. its Canadian peer on Tuesday, dragging USD/CAD to session lows in the 1.3080 area.
USD/CAD weaker on data
The pair left the area above the 1.3100 handle following mixed results from the US housing sector, where Building Permits rose to 1.119 M during July, missing prior estimates at 1.232 M and down from Junes 1.337 M (revised), while Housing Starts surprised markets to the upside, rising to 1.206 M vs. 1.190 M forecasted and 1.174 M previous.
The pair remains in a consolidative pattern around the 1.3000 key handle so far, amidst increasing cautious tone amongst market participants in light of the upcoming FOMC minutes (Wednesday).
USD/CAD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is advancing 0.19% at 1.3105 with the next hurdle at 1.3159 (high Aug.12) ahead of 1.3183 (high Aug.10) and then 1.3197 (high Aug.6). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.3078 (low Aug.18) would open the door to 1.3043 (low Aug.14) and finally 1.2957 (low Aug.13).
Aug 18,2015
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TRY poised for further declines – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Cristian Maggio, Head of EM Strategy at TD Securities, assessed today’s decision by the CBRT to keep the monetary stance unchanged.
Key Quotes
“My first impression is that the CBRT has fallen short of market expectations. This comes as a natural conclusion even just looking at the market reaction after the document was published. New USDTRY all time high at 2.8941. The pair is now trading just above 2.89 but, unless the CBRT puts some substance to these promises, the lira is unlikely to receive great support going forward.
“I’m not quite sure if the goal is still stabilize the lira or just let it go weaker to help the economic rebalancing. Certainly the CBRT will have to consider the implications for the corporate sector that has large USD exposure via foreign debt. And the fact that Erdogan’s adviser Cemil praised the CBRT’s decision (‘brave’ and ‘appropriate’) shortly after the announcement today, leaves me with that bitter taste of something that doesn’t feel good but you don’t quite get what is wrong with it”.
“For now, we stick to our negative opinion on rates and currency (we see USDTRY to 3.0 in the short term and higher towards 3.30/3.35 in the coming 10 months), on the backdrop of a messy political situation that sets almost certainly Turkey for early elections. Another 5 days to figure that out”.
Aug 18,2015
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GBP/USD remains close to 1.5700
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling keeps the buoyant tone on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area of daily tops in the 1.5700 neighbourhood.
GBP/USD bolstered by UK data
Despite the upside momentum of the US dollar, the sterling derived support from the better-than-expected inflation figures released earlier in the UK economy, where consumer prices came in higher than initially anticipated for the month of July.
Spot quickly clinched multi-week tops beyond 1.5700 the figure, managing (so far) to break above the tough resistance area around 1.5680.
GBP/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is up 0.68% at 1.5693 with the next resistance at 1.5719 (high Aug.18) ahead of 1.5734 (high Jul.1) and then 1.5789 (high Jun.29). On the other hand, a breach of 1.5562 (low Aug.18) would open the door to 1.5536 (low Aug.12) and finally 1.5500 (psychological level).
Aug 18,2015
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EUR/PLN seen at 4.15 in 12-month – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Thomas Harr, Global Head of FICC Research at Danske Bank, expects the Polish zloty to gain further strength in the longer-run.
Key Quotes
“We believe that the increased political uncertainty in Poland will cause more zloty volatility in the near term and see a risk that EUR/PLN could inch up further in the next 1-3 months”.
“We target the cross at 4.20 in 1M and 4.25 in 3M. On a 6-12M horizon, we expect the zloty to remain supported by both a moderately more positive outlook for growth and the ECB’s QE programme as well as the end of the central bank rate cuts”.
“Hence, we expect EUR/PLN to fall back towards 4.15 in 6-12M”.
Aug 20,2015
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Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) above expectations (1%) in June: Actual (1.3%)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Aug 20,2015
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Franc to depreciate in the longer run – SNB’s Jordan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - SNB President Thomas Jordan has once again reiterated that the Swiss franc is expected to weaken in the upcoming periods.
At the same time, and as usual, he stressed that the central bank stays ready to intervene if necessary.
Aug 20,2015
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United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 8.3, above expectations (7) in July
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Aug 20,2015
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USD/CNY neutral in the short term – BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at BTMU keep the neutral stance on the pair for the upcoming week.
Key Quotes
“Unless US Fed Vice Chairman Fischer shocks markets back to September we are beginning to shift towards trading as if lift-off could be December”.
“That feels like a headwind against more USD strength next week, which used to not matter for USD/CNY but that was before the renminbi’s regime change”.
“PBOC in its stabilization campaign also seems to be leaning a bit to the downside”.
“Whether the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI # can sustain the recovery seen in its MNI counterpart, however, will be important as to whether PBOC can cement expectations”.
Aug 20,2015
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NZD/USD a top performer, but for how long?
FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6682 with a high of 0.6694 and a low of 0.6606.
NZD/USD a top performer this week
NZD/USD has been a top performer this week, relishing in the weakness of the greenback, but this may be a last valiant effort before the RBNZ next month while 0.6800 remains a key resistance and some way off in the distance. 0.7200 thereafter would be the next land mark and would indicate the unthinkable, that the bird could be headed back to the RBNZ's overvalued status.
FOMC minutes allow the bird to drift higher
The FOMC minutes have put a dark cloud over the greenback with a dovish tone, which is setting back ideas of a rate hike from the Fed as soon as September. The next data to watch out for next week will be the durable goods orders from the US along with US GDP revisions to Q2, which should be positive for the dollar, and should be supportive of a positive Q3 on the handover.
China weighing on the Fed's timing
However, China should continue to weigh on the global outlook, but more specifically, the greenback may have further to unwind should the notion be that a timing of rate hike is not appropriate in the given circumstances, where we have already seen a blow out in the EM markets and a collapse in stock markets as the PBoC devalued the Yuan by 2% which is damaging to Asian exporters. On that basis, the NZD may find a follow through of the trade-off with the dollar unwinding and 0.6800 would be back in the picture, tempting the hand of the RBNZ.
On the other hand, the greenback may attract a flight to safety over time while US stocks may seem like a safe place again in an environment where the Fed stay on hold for longer, relieving the corporate sector of ultra low costs for the foreseeable future and buoying the market. That, coupled with a soft commodities sector, would weigh on the bird considerably.
Commodities to keep the bird weak and RBNZ on the back-foot
Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank explained that, "Weak energy prices and slow growth is keeping a lid on inflationary pressures and with currencies such as the AUD and the NZD coming down from overvalued levels, the drop in their values has been generally welcomed by policymakers."
She added, "Given that supply gluts means that producers are facing up to the risk of low for longer commodity prices and that a weaker CNY threatens to erode competitiveness, we see risk that the RBA and RBNZ could take further action this year to weaker their currencies and we see falls to AUD/USD0.69 and NZD/USD0.62 on a 12m view."
Aug 21,2015
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EUR/USD gathers pace and hits 2-month highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD picked up fresh momentum and extended gains to fresh 2-month highs as the dollar continues to suffer on the back of FOMC minutes and the euro is among the best performers.
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1300 level on Friday and rose through the 200-day SMA to reach its highest level since Jun 22 at 1.1352 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1350, recording a 0.97% gain on Friday.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, next resistances are seen at 1.1400 (psychological level), 1.1409 (Jun 22 high) and 1.1435 (Jun 18 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.1228 (Aug 21 low), 1.1213 (Aug 12 high) and 1.1200 (psychological level).
Aug 21,2015
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CNY expected to drop further – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank see the Chinese currency losing further ground in the next weeks.
Key Quotes
“The main implications of China’s new exchange-rate policy are that the link to the USD has weakened and the exchange rate has become more dependent on growth and monetary policy in China”.
“In our view, China is not aiming for a major competitive devaluation. However, relative monetary policy between China and the US suggests that the CNY will continue to depreciate and we expect it to depreciate by close to 5% against USD in the next 12M”.
“In the short run however, we expect the PBoC to keep the CNY in a tight grip ahead of the IMF’s decision on SDR this autumn. Hence, we only expect it to depreciate slightly on a 1M and 3M horizon”.
Aug 21,2015
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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