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Focus likely to be on ECB’s ELA after referendum – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Rich Kelly at TD Securities assessed the implications for the ELA mechanism after the Greek referendum on Sunday.
Key Quotes
“On the back of a 'No' vote, we would expect the market reaction to be about twice as intense as what we saw on Monday, but with a more protracted inability for the market to completely move on”.
“The biggest question mark will be the ELA. As long as the two sides remain in discussions, we think the ELA remains in place, even though we think the creditors will be unwilling to come to any agreement with Syriza”.
“We would, however, expect the ECB to increase its haircuts on ELA collateral shortly thereafter to help offset some of the further risks to its balance sheet, though not enough to cap out any individual bank”.
“Defaulting on the samurai bond could trigger a credit event with ISDA after July 14”.
“Defaulting on bonds held by the ECB on the 20th would not trigger a credit event, but we could see the ELA terminated at that point”.
“But even if the ECB chose to follow their self-imposed rules and end the ELA, they would also likely counter that with additional frontloaded QE over the next few months and announce additional liquidity tenders in order to quell market volatility for the rest of the Eurozone”.
“Exposures to Greece in Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey may be the first to come under the microscope both of markets—and policymakers in those countries—as well”.
July 02,2015
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Japanese Q2 GDP could surprise to the downside – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst Tom Wayne at Westpac suggested the possibility that the Japanese GDP could disappoint markets in the second quarter.
Key Quotes
“The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance each conduct comprehensive quarterly surveys of Japanese businesses”.
“The MOF’s BSI surveys 16000 corporations of varying sizes, while the BoJ’s Tankan covers around 1000”.
“We use the detailed responses to forecast quarterly GDP growth... forecasts based on responses to the BSI are a better fit than those based on Tankan, though both surveys tend to point in the same direction”.
“There was some divergence between BSI and Tankan respondents in Q2, with BSI reporting a decline in fixed investment over the quarter while Tankan shows an unexpectedly large increase (4.3 vs -5 in Q1)”.
“Despite this difference, both models highlight the downside risk for Q2 GDP growth, with Tankan and BSI forecasting 0.3% and 3% contractions respectively”.
July 02,2015
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FOMC Minutes might be perceived as slightly more hawkish – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team previews the key events ahead in the US – FOMC Minutes, Fed Williams speech.
Key Quotes
“Minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC will come into focus amid ongoing Greek concerns, with markets interested in any discussions surrounding the Fed's evolving view on inflation and growth, and any emerging consensus on the appropriate pace of policy withdrawal.”
“While markets viewed the June FOMC statement as dovish, there is a risk that the minutes hint at a more balanced discussion (which may be perceived as slightly more “hawkish”) on rate hikes later this year.”
“Fed’s Williams (dove, voter) will make remarks on the speaker circuit. On the supply front, the $21B 10yr auction will follow on the heels of a solid 3yr sale, with averages suggesting a stop 0.5bps through the screens as the buy side takes 70% of the auction (57% to indirects and 13% to directs).”
July 08,2015
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Brazil IPCA Inflation climbed from previous 0.74% to 0.79% in June
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 08,2015
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Greece to extend bank holiday, capital controls through Friday
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to government sources, Greece is likely to extend bank holiday, capital controls through Friday.
July 08,2015
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India Bank Loan Growth fell from previous 9.8% to 9.3%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest Forex news.
July 10,2015
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Morgan Stanley: Greece deal or not, EUR is going down – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Morgan Stanley sticks to their bearish view on the EUR, explaining the possible price action in the single currency from a Greece deal or a Grexit scenario, as noted by eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“Should Greece sign a deal, a short-term EUR rebound should be followed by EUR weakness as investors are likely to move back into EUR-funded carry positions,"
"Should Greece exit, the ECB may have to use its tool kit to keep sovereign spreads under control. Monetary easing should put the EUR under selling pressure. Ultimately, the ECB should be successful in controlling spreads, we believe,"
"A Grexit represents a fundamental shift for EMU with the loss of ‘irrevocability’ potentially turning the union into a club of fixed exchanges rates with the possibility to leave. Peripheral assets will have to trade at a risk premium, unless EMU authorities deepen integration via further banking union and fiscal integration steps. The ECB controlling sovereign spreads successfully could turn into a long-term EUR negative factor as it may not provide the necessary ‘wake-up call’ to European politicians to make the necessary reforms to avoid future market tension”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
July 10,2015
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USD/CHF could slip towards the 0.9200 handle – Commerzbank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, sees the chance that the pair could test the 0.9200 area.
Key Quotes
“USD/CHF upside was thwarted last week by the the 200 day ma and the May high at .9525/43”.
“The fall back from here suggests that upside efforts have temporarily exhausted themselves to leave the market back in the middle of the .9072 - .9543 band where we have been for 2 long months”.
“It does suggest that there will be some weakness near term. Intraday Elliott wave counts have become more neutral to mildly negative and we would allow for slippage to the .9201 2 month support line”.
July 13,2015
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Gold keeps red around $ 1155 on stronger USD, Greek deal
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices on Comex extends losses from the previous session and remains pressured in the European trading as news that Greece and its creditors reached a deal over a third bailout package for the cash-strapped country dented gold’s appeal as a safe-haven.
Gold falls on Greek agreement
Currently, gold trades -0.26% lower at 1154.90, having posted day’s high at 1163.80 and day’s low at 1152.90. The yellow metal was sold-off on Monday as a deal on Greece hit safe-have demand for the precious metal, with the rising greenback also weighing on the price.
Euro zone leaders finally agreed on Monday that Greece should receive a third package of financial aid, denting demand for gold that always increases its price in times of political and economic uncertainty.
Moreover, the US currency keeps breaking higher also backed by the latest comments of Fed Chair Janet Yellen that the central bank is on course to raise interest rates this year.
Later today, markets continue to monitor Greece headlines ahead of ECB’s ELA decision for Greek banks amid a relatively calm economic calendar.
Gold Technical Levels
The metal has an immediate resistance at 1165 and 1170 levels. Meanwhile, support stands at 1150 below which doors could open for 1146.20 levels.
July 13,2015
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USD/CAD off highs, near 1.2700
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After climbing to session tops in the mid-1.2700s, USD/CAD is now returning to the 1.2700 neighbourhood.
USD/CAD stronger after Greek deal
The pair has gathered further steam following news that the EU institutions and Greece have finally come to an agreement early in the European morning. Despite there is still a long way to go, both parties have initially agreed in the most conflicting issues, paving the way for a potential third-bailout in the medium term.
Absent publications in the US and Canada, next event risk will be tomorrow’s US Retail Sales and the BoC monetary policy meeting due on Wednesday.
USD/CAD key levels
At the moment the pair is up 0.46% at 1.2715 with the next hurdle at 1.2747 (high Jul.13) ahead of 1.2779 (high Jul.7) and then 1.2784 (high Mar.31). On the downside, a break below 1.2680 (low Jul.13) would aim for 1.2662 (low Jul.10) and finally1.2537 (low Jul.3).
July 13,2015
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Iran-West deal in the limelight – BBH
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The research team at BBH expects Iran and the Western powers to strike a deal in the upcoming days.
Key Quotes
“Besides the numerous Greek deadlines that have come and gone in recent weeks, we note that the deadline for an agreement with Iran has also been adjusted”.
“There is some speculation that an agreement could be struck over the next 48-72 hours”.
“The anticipated Iranian oil that would hit the global market (millions of barrels are thought to be in floating storage) is one of the factors weighing on oil prices”.
“The US rig count increased last week, for only the second time since December”.
“US output remains near record highs, and OPEC appears to have increased its production further above its quota”.
July 13,2015
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USD/JPY challenges 123.50
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY climbed to fresh 2-week highs on Monday propelled by the risk-on sentiment following Greek deal with creditors but stalled just shy of the 123.50 level and entered a consolidation phase over the last hours.
USD/JPY climbed more than 100 pips since opening and hit its highest level since July 2 at 123.48 before finding resistance. The pair has spent the last hours consolidating within a narrow range in the absence of news or economic indicators.
USD/JPY levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, if USD/JPY breaks decisively above 123.50, next resistances are seen at 123.70 (Jul 2 high) and 124.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports could be found at 122.40 (50-day SMA), 122.26 (Jul 13 low) and 122.00 (psychological level).
July 13,2015
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Expect further easing from the RBNZ – Goldman Sachs
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of analysts at Goldman Sachs, the Kiwi dollar could slide to the 0.62 region in a year’s time following rate cuts by the RBNZ.
Key Quotes
“Finally, in New Zealand, our NZ economists are forecasting a further three cuts from the RBNZ following their June cut, as domestic demand disappoints the central bank’s forecasts against an already-weak inflation backdrop”.
“Despite the large depreciation we have seen since May, we think NZD/$ will fall further to 0.62 in 12 months”.
July 13,2015
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USD/CHF hints at dip buying




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The hourly 50-period SMA broke through the slower 200-period SMA, adding credence to the recent bullish USD/CHF profile.


If USD/CHF spot falls closer to the level where the moving averages crossed, then buyers might see it as an opportunity to reenter. Furthermore, a convincing break through the 50 SMA signals a neutral tone, shifting negative below the 200 SMA.









July 15,2015

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Majority of Syriza members call for no vote – Livesquawk




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Livesquawk is carrying social media reports stating that 107 out of 201 Syriza members call for no in Greek parliament vote scheduled later today. The 107 members have published a declaration condemning Greek PM Tsipras.


Meanwhile, Germany’s Jaeger was on the wires stating that Germany cannot accept a significant cut in Greek debt, but extending debt maturities is an option on the table. He further added that the value of debt must not be reduced too much otherwise it would be a haircut via the back door.










July 15,2015

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United States Capacity Utilization above expectations (78.1%) in June: Actual (78.4%)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 15,2015
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Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision below forecasts (0.75%): Actual (0.5%) (78.4%)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 15,2015
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Last one for the BoC? – ING
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at ING Bank James Knightley has reviewed the recent decision by the BoC to cut its refi rate to 0.5%.
Key Quotes
“The Bank of Canada has cut its overnight lending rate target to 0.5% from 0.75%. The market was split on whether or not the BoC would move, but the surprise January 21st rate cut had given us a warning that they tend to be one of the more active central banks”.
“The weaker than expected US and China activity story was cited as a factor behind their decision, which also saw them revise down their 2015 Canadian GDP growth forecast to 1.1% from the 1.9% figure they were expecting in April. The market for Canadian commodities has also deteriorated, which is hurting earnings, investment and jobs – remember that Canada is the World’s fifth largest producer of both oil and gas. The weaker growth story means that excess capacity in the economy will dampen inflation pressures, thereby offering the BoC the room to offer more stimulus to the economy”.
“Outside of the energy sector the BoC admit the situation isn’t as bad with a strengthening jobs market supporting confidence and loose financial conditions also helping the growth outlook for the second half of the year. Moreover, they expect the economy to grow 2.5% in 2016 with inflation gradually returning to target. Consequently, we don’t expect any additional policy stimulus from the BoC with the positive US Fed rates outlook set to push USD/CAD higher and help to make the Canadian economy more competitive on the international stage while also adding a little upside impetus to inflation”.
July 15,2015
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GBP/USD breaks below 1.56 ahead of US data
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bid tone on the USD strengthened, pushing the GBP/USD spot below 1.56 handle ahead of the weekly jobless claims data in the US.
Offered below 1.5607
The pair was offered after the spot broke below 1.5607 (23.6% of Apr-June rally). The US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended July 10 are expected to print at 285K; down from the previous week’s print at 297K. That would be 19th consecutive week of a below 300K print.
Moreover, the spot could have also been dragged below 1.56 after the EUR/USD settled below 1.09 handle. Apart from the weekly claims, the spot could also be influenced by regional manufacturing index and Fed’s Yellen testimony.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The spot currently trades around 1.5590. The immediate support is seen at 1.5576 (previous session’s low), under which the spot could target 1.5550 (50% Fib of June rally). On the other hand, resistance is seen at 1.5607 (23.6% fib R of Apr-June rally) and 1.5638 (38.2% Fib R of June rally).
July 16,2015
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Poland Corporate Sector Wages: 2.5% (June) vs previous 3.2%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 16,2015
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Poland Corporate Sector Wages: 2.5% (June) vs previous 3.2%
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the first time applications for unemployment benefits fell to 281K in the week ended July 10, compared to the estimated drop to 285K from previous week’s downwardly revised 296K.
Jobless claims below 300K for 19th consecutive week
The jobless claims dropped by 15K last week. The number stayed below 300K for the 19th consecutive week, a sign labor market momentum continues to strengthen. The four-week average of claims, which provides a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, increased to 282,500 from 279,250 in the prior week.
Meanwhile, the continuing claims dropped by 112,000 to 2.22 million in the week ended July 4.
July 16,2015
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Gold drops to 2015 low
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices dropped to the 2015 low of USD 1136.66/Oz as the USD index strengthened after the data in the US showed core CPI ticked higher in June.
Approaching Nov 2014 low
The metal has taken out the previous 2015 low at USD 1142.59 and is fast approaching the Nov 2014 low of USD 1130.10/Oz. The selling pressure strengthened after the official data in the US showed core CPI rose 1.8.% year-on-year in June. Furthermore, the housing starts beat estimates and Building permits for single and multifamily properties, a gauge of future construction, climbed to an almost eight-year high.
Consequently, the metal took a hit on increased bets of interest rate hike in 2015. However, despite of a positive data, the treasury yields at the short-end of the curve, which mimic interest rate expectations, have not been able to tick higher.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate support is seen at 1130.10 (Nov 2014 low), under which the pair could target the psychological level of 1100. On the other hand, immediate resistance is located at 1142.59 (Mar 2015 low) and 1150.00.
July 17,2015
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United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 93.3, below expectations (97) in July
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 17,2015
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Belgium Consumer Confidence Index dipped from previous -2 to -6 in July
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 17,2015
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NZD/USD lurched lower and hesitated




FXStreet (Barcelona) - A harami cross pattern unfolded on the NZD/USD daily chart turning the intermediate trend from bearish to neutral.


The pattern occurs within the context of deteriorating prices unfolding with the daily stochastic (14,3,3) tracking below 20. From here on, this oscillator could easily react with any future close near the highs, especially since yesterday's trading range formed a doji line on the chart. Highlighting the lack of trendiness is the 1-hour ADX indicator which dipped below 30 in today's trading.


Note the harami cross is considered a more potent reversal than the regular harami.






July 18,2015

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European Monetary Union Current Account s.a: 18B (May) vs previous 22.3BFXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news. July 20,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates

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European Monetary Union Current Account s.a: €18B (May) vs previous €22.3B
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 20,2015
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Markets vigilant on Greek banks – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at Deutsche Bank Jim Reid noted the relevance of today’s re-opening of the Greek banks.
Key Quotes
“Talking of Greece, the banks re-open today for the first time in three weeks”.
“Greece is unlikely to be a huge macro influence now for a couple of months but events like this are certainly worth keeping an eye on to assess the likelihood of future progress or lack of it”.
“Aside from the banks we also heard from German Chancellor Merkel who suggested that it would be possible to discuss Greek debt relief through extending maturities once the ESM deal has been negotiated, but she once again reiterated the ruling out of any haircuts”.
“Merkel also dismissed any suggestions of a dispute with German Finance Minister Schaeuble who had said in a Der Spiegel interview over the weekend that the two had differences, although he downplayed any talks of a potential resignation”.
“Meanwhile, late on Friday we also saw Greek PM Tsipras announce a cabinet reshuffle as largely expected, replacing various members of the Syriza party who had previously opposed the proposals at the parliamentary vote last week, including the more outspoken Left Platform faction leader Lafazanis”.
July 20,2015
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BoE still expected to hike sooner than later – Societe Generale
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Kit Juckes, Strategist at Societe Generale, sees the ‘Old Lady’ getting ready to raise its rates.
Key Quotes
“The BOE MPC Minutes on Wednesday are probably the highlight of the UK calendar, after the clear turn in the rhetoric from MOPC members in recent days”.
“The Bank of England is preparing the ground for a rate hike, though not imminently”.
“EUR/GBP RSIs, like those in other pairs, are beginning to look a bit stretched after the acceleration down after the break of 0.70, but we’d still look for one final slide lower before the correction”.
July 20,2015
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September rate hike still on the table – Fed’s Bullard
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - James Bullard, President of St. Louis Fed, has left the door open for a rate hike in September, stressing at the same time that it would be prudent to lift rates off zero.
He also added that concerns over China or Greece are not expected to influence on the Fed’s policy.
July 20,2015
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RBNZ could ease further – RBS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - FX Strategist Greg Gibbs sees the RBNZ lowering further its benchmark rate this week.
Key Quotes
“After last week’s soft CPI data and weak milk auction, a 25bp rate cut from the RBNZ this week looks extremely likely”.
“The market agrees and has it priced in (56bp of cuts over the coming year). We also expect the central bank to leave unchanged its assessment that “further significant downward adjustment is justified” for the exchange rate”.
“The market may baulk at selling the NZD near its lows since 2009 after a relatively rapid fall in recent months, but this fall is in-line with the lower interest rates and lower commodity prices, and risk is biased towards further falls in coming weeks in our view”.
“It appears likely on track to reach down to around more significant longer term support near .60/.61”.
July 20,2015
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USD/CAD points to 1.35 in the medium term – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of strategists at Westpac, the pair could reach the 1.35 area in a 3 to 6-month horizon.
Key Quotes
“Long held view that the Canadian economy will underwhelm and force the BoC into fresh easing finally a reality”.
“The proximity of the zero bound limits the extent of easing but strictly speaking the Bank could (and should eventually) cut once again, taking interest rates back to their credit crunch emergency setting at 0.25%”.
“The BoC’s latest forecasts incorporate the known contraction in Q2 but their forecasts for 1.5% annualised growth in Q3 and 2.5% in Q4 remain on the optimistic side”.
“USD/CAD 1.35 very achievable on a 3-6 month horizon”.
“The medium term/long term momentum / trend structure remains positive and indicative of a sustainable rally. 10 year highs are an obstacle up to 1.3065 that should be overcome in time”.
July 21,2015
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USD/CAD points to 1.35 in the medium term – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of strategists at Westpac, the pair could reach the 1.35 area in a 3 to 6-month horizon.
Key Quotes
“Long held view that the Canadian economy will underwhelm and force the BoC into fresh easing finally a reality”.
“The proximity of the zero bound limits the extent of easing but strictly speaking the Bank could (and should eventually) cut once again, taking interest rates back to their credit crunch emergency setting at 0.25%”.
“The BoC’s latest forecasts incorporate the known contraction in Q2 but their forecasts for 1.5% annualised growth in Q3 and 2.5% in Q4 remain on the optimistic side”.
“USD/CAD 1.35 very achievable on a 3-6 month horizon”.
“The medium term/long term momentum / trend structure remains positive and indicative of a sustainable rally. 10 year highs are an obstacle up to 1.3065 that should be overcome in time”.
July 21,2015
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Go long USD/CAD on dips towards 1.2900/1.2950 – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The FX Strategy team at TD Securities recommended buying spot on pullbacks towards the 1.2950/1.2900 area.
Key Quotes
“Next week’s FOMC meeting and Q2 GDP release offers a potential catalyst to push USDCAD higher”.
“Since the Greek rescue deal was tabled, the Fed has become incrementally more hawkish”.
“If the Fed is moving towards a September hike, then there is a plausible risk that next week’s meeting could contain some potential fireworks”.
“Until then however, we do not see much scope for USDCAD to rally further this week”.
“Instead, we see a risk of a pullback especially if the retail sales data is stronger than consensus (as we anticipate)”.
“In such a circumstance, we think investors may look to enter USDCAD longs around the 1.2900/1.2950 level”.
July 21,2015
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United States Redbook index (YoY) dipped from previous 1.4% to 1.2% in July 17
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 21,2015
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Greek twists and turns - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - It is possible, and even likely, that Syriza returns to government in a new election.
Key Quotes:
"A newspaper poll put Syriza's support at 42.5%, nearly twice the support of New Democracy, which is in second place at 21.5%. "
"However, the problem with an election is that it may delay the formal review of Greece's actual implementation of the measures it has promised."
"That in turn would delay the debt relief that now even Merkel has accepted as necessary and inevitable."
July 21,2015
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GNZD/USD rises to 0.6650, eyes RBNZ
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Kiwi and the euro are the best performers on Tuesday among major currencies. NZD/USD printed a fresh daily high during the American session at 0.6650, the strongest level in 6 days.
The pair holds a bullish tone and is recovering for the second day in a row amid a weak US dollar, risk appetite and ahead of the monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
To cut (again) or not to? How much?
The central bank is expected to cut again the Official Cash Rate (OCR) like it did during the last meeting as the outlook for the NZ economy continues to worsen. Most analysts expect a decline of 25 basis points to 3% in the OCR.
“It is expected to signal scope for additional rate cuts. After talking the Kiwi lower, recent comments have noted the speed of its decline. That, and the suggestion that milk prices will rebound, have helped spur a bounce in the currency. It is nearly 2% off the lows seen yesterday”, wrote analysts from Brown Brothers Harriman. According to them around 0.6700 “sellers will re-emerge”.
July 21,2015
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WTI retreats from $51.00
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After hitting session tops around the $51.00 mark, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate has now returned to the mid-$50.00s.
WTI firmer on offered dollar
The softer tone in the greenback has allowed today’s recovery in crude oil prices, advancing for the first time after four straight sessions in red.
While concerns over the current supply glut remain far from abated, expectations of a drop in tomorrow’s EIA report on crude inventories could be collaborating with today’s upside.
WTI levels to watch
At the moment WTI is up 0.74% at $50.75 with the next resistance at $52.54 (high Jul.16) followed by $53.94 (high Jul.15) and then $54.35 (high Jul.10). On the flip side, a breakdown of $49.47 (low Apr.6) would aim for $48.11 (low Apr.2) and finally $47.05 (low Apr.1).
July 21,2015
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SARB could hike rates on Thursday – TDS


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at TD Securities Paul Fage expects the South African Reserve Bank to hike its benchmark rate by 25 bp.


Key Quotes


“We think the SARB rate decision on Thursday, 23 July, is a very close call, but on balance we think the SARB will hike its key policy rate, the repo rate, by 25bps. The consensus is also for the SARB to hike by 25 bps, but 13/30 of the economists surveyed expect no change”.


“Growth remains anaemic, but the SARB has often stated that the ability of monetary policy to stimulate the economy is limited given supply constraints”.


“At the May meeting the MPC adopted a clearly hawkish stance, with two of the six members voting for a hike. We think that the SARB will want to maintain its credibility and try to anchor longer-term inflation expectations at a lower level by hiking sooner rather than later”.


“If the SARB does not hike on Thursday then we think that it is almost certain that they will hike in September, possibly in the wake of a Fed hike”.








July 21,2015

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United Kingdom BOE MPC Vote Cut in line with expectations (0)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news
July 22,2015
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USD Index prints highs near 97.40
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD Index, which tracks the greenback vs. its main rivals, has now resumed its upside trend and is posting session tops in he 97.40/45 band.
USD Index focus on US data
After yesterday’s sharp sell-off to multi-day lows near the 97.00 handle, the buying interest seems to have returned to the dollar, pushing the index back towards the mid-97.00s so far.
In the data space, US Existing Home Sales are due next, with consensus expecting an increase to 5.4 M during June, or a 1.2% advance. In the meantime, market participants seem to have already digested and cashed up the recent USD gains, all ahead of the key FOMC meeting due next week.
USD Index relevant levels
As of writing the index is up 0.09% at 97.41 and a surpass of 98.46 (high Apr.21) would open the door to 99.36 (high Apr.15) and then 99.70 (high Apr.14). On the other hand, the immediate support aligns at 95.08 (low Jun.26) ahead of 94.86 (low Jun.30) and finally 94.72 (low Jun.29).
July 22,2015
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USD Index prints highs near 97.40
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD Index, which tracks the greenback vs. its main rivals, has now resumed its upside trend and is posting session tops in he 97.40/45 band.
USD Index focus on US data
After yesterday’s sharp sell-off to multi-day lows near the 97.00 handle, the buying interest seems to have returned to the dollar, pushing the index back towards the mid-97.00s so far.
In the data space, US Existing Home Sales are due next, with consensus expecting an increase to 5.4 M during June, or a 1.2% advance. In the meantime, market participants seem to have already digested and cashed up the recent USD gains, all ahead of the key FOMC meeting due next week.
USD Index relevant levels
As of writing the index is up 0.09% at 97.41 and a surpass of 98.46 (high Apr.21) would open the door to 99.36 (high Apr.15) and then 99.70 (high Apr.14). On the other hand, the immediate support aligns at 95.08 (low Jun.26) ahead of 94.86 (low Jun.30) and finally 94.72 (low Jun.29).
July 22,2015
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EUR/GBP mid-term buyers gaining momentum
On the 4H EUR/GBP chart, the MACD has moved above zero denoting an uptrend.
Such a momentum indication, unseen for at least for more that a week, indicates that key price breaks are on the horizon. Likely, momentum traders who had been waiting for this technical signal will likely try to push EUR/GBP higher.
July 23,2015
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Buy the dips in USD/JPY – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist at Westpac Robert Rennie recommends buying the pullbacks in the pair.
Key Quotes
“We have stuck with a USD/JPY buy dip bias for a number of weeks now”.
“To be sure, this bias has assumed that Greece would either be solved or kicked significantly down the road. That appears to be the case now, so that firms up the buy on dips view”.
“However, upside for us is based more on likely strong Q2 GDP in the US (Thursday next week) and disappointing Q2 GDP in Japan (Aug 17)”.
July 23,2015
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BNZD/USD still seen at 0.62 by year-end – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Imre Speizer, Strategist at Westpac, suggested the pair could grind lower towards the 0.62 handle by end of 2015.
Key Quotes
“We maintain our negative multi-month outlook for NZD/USD, but are less bearish in the near term”.
“A bounce to 0.6700 is possible during the week ahead, following the RBNZ’s hawkish surprise to markets today”.
“Speculative positioning is short NZD at records levels, according to the CFTC, and risks rebalancing, catalysed by the RBNZ’s lack of urgency implied by its guidance paragraph today”.
“The RBNZ also surprised the market by watering down its currency warning”.
“Beyond such a positioning cleanout though, we expect NZ fundamentals to require an easing cycle taking the OCR to 2.0%. We target 0.6200 by year end”.
July 23,2015
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US initial jobless claims drops to four decade low
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the jobless claims last week dropped to the lowest in four decades, mainly on account of mid-year factory shutdowns and school vacations.
The initial jobless claims by 26,000 to 255,000 in the week ended July 18, the fewest since November 1973. The markets were expecting the initial jobless claims to drop to 280K from the previous week’s 281K. The initial jobless claims stayed below 300K for the 20th consecutive week.
The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure than the weekly numbers, decreased to 278,500 last week, from 282,500.
The jobless data, since early March, has been indicating the resilience in labor market despite the marked slowdown in the economy in the first quarter. The June payrolls data had shown the economy added by 223,000 in June following a 254,000 gain the prior month. The US jobless rate fell to a seven-year low of 5.3%.
July 23,2015
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Russia Central Bank Reserves $: $358.2B vs previous $359.9B
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 23,2015
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United States CB Leading Indicator (MoM) above expectations (0.2%) in June: Actual (0.6%)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 23,2015
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Belgium Leading Indicator dipped from previous -3.9 to -4.1
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 24,2015
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EUR/USD challenges daily highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has continue to recover from daily lows and retested daily highs at the 1.0990 area as the dollar gives up ground versus major competitors, while a sudden bout of EUR/CHF demand is helping the euro.
The dollar reacted negatively to below expectations new home sales data and has continued to move lower over the last hours. EUR/USD reached a session high of 1.0992 before pulling back slightly. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0970, just a few pips below its opening price but still on track to post a modest weekly gain.
FOMC meeting eyed
With Greek short-term problems solved, for now, attention now turns to the Federal Reserve and the timing of the lift-off after Yellen reiterated earlier this month the bank was still on track to raise rates at some point this year. Next Wednesday the Fed concludes its 2-day policy meeting and investors will be looking for any change in Fed statement.
EUR/USD technical levels
As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.1000 (psychological level/100-day SMA), 1.1017 (Jul 23 high) and 1.1035 (Jul 15 high). On the downside, supports could be found at 1.0925/21 (Jul 24 & 23 low), 1.0900 (psychological level) and 1.0869 (Jul 22 low).
July 24,2015
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Treasury yields drop ahead of the durable goods report


FXStreet (Mumbai)- The safe haven treasury prices rose, thereby pushing yields lower ahead of the data in the US, which could show core durable goods orders witnessed modest rebound in June.


The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note currently trades 4.3 basis points lower at 2.23%. The long-end treasury yields dropped after China’s Shanghai Composite index fell more than 8% to register its biggest single day fall since 2007. The drop also pushed major European equities lower. The major index futures also point to a weak opening on Wall Street.


Investors now await the US durable goods orders report for June. The headline number is seen rising 3.00%, while the core figure is expected to rise 0.5%, after stalling in May.


The data could influence the short-end - 2-year yield, which mimics short-term interest rate expectations in the US. At the moment, the yield is down 1.2 basis points at 0.67%.




July 27,2015

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GBP/USD spikes to 1.5580, takes out 50-DMA resistance
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The bid tone on the GBP/USD ensured the spot rose above 1.5551 (50-DMA), triggering stops, which pushed the pair to a session high of 1.5585.
Trades above hourly 200-MA
The bullish momentum appears strong as the spot trades above its hourly 200-MA currently located at 1.5578. The weakness in the treasury yields, coupled with the rise in Gold prices is supporting weighing over the USD. The sharp fall in the Chinese equities could have led the markets to speculate that Fed may put more emphasis on overseas turbulence in its policy statement on Wednesday, thereby hinting at a possible delay in the rate hike.
Moreover, the upbeat durable goods report has been completely ignored by the markets. The focus now shifts to the UK second quarter preliminary GDP report due for release on Tuesday.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate support is seen at 1.5551 (50-MA), under which the spot could re-test the daily low at 1.5490. On the other hand, a break above 1.5607 (23.6% Fib R of Apr-Jun rally) could open doors for 1.5671 (July 23 high).
July 27,2015
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EUR/USD trades at 2-week highs above 1.1100
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has retested European session highs at the 1.1110 zone helped by EUR/CHF demand while the USD continues to underperform ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Following a brief corrective move, EUR/USD gathered pace and climbed to a high of 1.1111 roughly the same peak it reached earlier, but sellers continue to keep the upside limited. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1102, recording a 1.15% gain on Monday.
USD underperform across the board
The US dollar is among the worst performers of the day amid fears that unstable Chinese stock markets could delay the Federal Reserve lift-off.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, if EUR/USD breaks decisively above 1.1110/12, next resistances line up at 1.1124 (Jul 9 high) and 1.1195 (Jul 13 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.0968 (Jul 27 low), 1.0925 (Jul 24 low) and 1.0900 (psychological level).
July 27,2015
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Russian central banks expected to ease further – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to strategists at TD Securities, the CBR could lower its benchmark rate by 25 bp at this week’s meeting.
Key Quotes
“In Russia, on Friday, in line with the consensus, we expect the CBR to cuts its key rate by 50 bps to 11.0%”.
“At the June meeting the CBR cut by 100 bps, but said that the potential of monetary policy easing will be limited by inflation risks in the next few months“.
“The reason for the CBR’s concern is the expected move back up in July inflation due to tariff hikes”.
“We think that these concerns will slow down but not stop rate cuts”.
“We also do not think that recent moves higher in USDRUB will stop the CBR easing as the FX moves have largely matched falls in oil prices”.
July 27,2015
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Oil drops to near six-month low
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Oil sell-off continued on Tuesday, with prices dropping to near six month low as renewed weakness in the Chinese equities has triggered concerns regarding the health of the world’s second largest economy.
Brent fell to an intraday low of USD 53.28/barrel, its lowest since early February, before recovering to USD 52.63/barrel. WTI Crude also printed a low of USD 46.70/barrel, before recovering slightly to trade around USD 47.25/barrel.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell today, taking the cumulative losses for the first two sessions of the week to 10%. This triggered concerns that the Chinese economy may not be strong enough to counter the excess supply situation in the global economy.
Investors now await the weekly data on US inventory levels to gauge the strength of demand. A preliminary Reuters poll of analysts suggested commercial crude oil stocks in the US likely slipped last week after crossing the five-year seasonal average build in the previous week.
July 28,2015
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United States 4-Week Bill Auction rose from previous 0.04% to 0.05%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
July 28,2015
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Gold downside persists - CB
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Commerzbank noted that Spot Gold has met the 50% retracement of the entire bull move up from the 1999 low.
Key Quotes:
"This was located at 1087 and represented a major long term downside target for us.
The low at 1077.25 was accompanied by a divergence of the RSI and this reflects a loss of downside momentum.
Rallies will find initial resistance at 1131/41 (50% retracement of last leg down), we can only assume while capped here a downside bias will persist.
Below 1077 will target the 1033 March 2008 high and the 1000 psychological support."
July 28,2015
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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