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USD/RUB could find strong support around 50.0 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Piotr Matys at Rabobank reviews the prospects for the Russian currency ahead in the year.
Key Quotes
“When the ruble firmed beyond the 50-level against the US dollar, verbal interventions from the central bank and the government intensified to discourage market players from betting on an even strong ruble”.
“Throughout the second half of the year, we expect that the 50-handle will be a fairly strong barrier for USD/RUB as the CBR will continue to cut rates to deter carry traders”.
“Admittedly, the ruble is set to remain one of the highest-yielding EM currencies, but with the interest rate potentially falling below 10.00% in 15H2 from 12.50% now, the risk premium may not prove sufficient to stimulate ruble demand”.
“Especially if the fragile ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine collapses and/or Brent crude falls below USD 60/bbl”.
June 09,2015
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EUR/USD bounced off 1.1210
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The decline of EUR/USD seems to have found decent support around the 1.1210 on Tuesday.
EUR/USD worried about Greece
Mounting concerns on the Greece-EU debt talks continue to hurt the sentiment around the single currency today, forcing spot to surrender part of Monday’s strong gains. Market participants remain vigilant on any Greek development, specially after the country submitted new proposals to the EU officials during the European morning, all in light of the key meeting between Merkel, Tsipras and Hollande to be held tomorrow.
Nothing to write home about from the data front, with the second revision of EMU’s GDP figures matching expectations during the first quarter (0.4% QoQ, 1.0% YoY).
EUR/USD levels to watch
The pair is now retreating 0.26% at 1.1261 and a breach of 1.1214 (low Jun.9) would target 1.1179 (low Jun.4) en route to 1.1084 (low Jun.8). On the flip side, the initial up barrier aligns at 1.1346 (high Jun.9) followed by 1.1383 (high May 13) and then 1.1400 (psychological level).
June 09,2015
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Saudi Arabia maintained production at three-decade high in April
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, told OPEC that it maintained its production at a three-decade high in May.
Saudi produced 10.33 million barrels a day in May, an increase of 25,000 barrels from April. The OPEC group as a whole supplied almost 31 million barrels a day collectively, the most in almost three years.
The organization agreed last week to keep its output ceiling at 30 million barrels a day and will meet again on Dec. 4. However, it is worth noting that the group has exceeded its target for the last 12 months.
June 10,2015
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GBP/USD retraces 50% of mid-May to end-May plunge
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/USD pair extended gains over and above 1.5491, which is the 50% Fib R of 1.5813 (mid-May high) -1.5169 (May-end low).
GBP/USD stalled at high of 1.5516
The pair printed a high of 1.5516 ahead of the US session, before falling back to 1.55 levels. The Pound bulls got a second wind, which took the pair higher from 1.5430-1.5440 levels.
At the moment, the British Pound is one of the best performing currency, mainly on account of an uptick in the industrial production and a larger than expected drop in trade deficit in April. It remains to be seen if the pair manages to extend gains after having retraced 50% of the fall.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1.5519 (23.6% R of 1.4564-1.5813), above which gains could be extended to 1.5670. On the flip side, a break below 1.5490 could push the pair back to 1.5420.
June 10,2015
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EUR/USD regains 1.1300 and climbs to session highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD regained the 1.1300 level and stretched to fresh session highs following a positive opening in Wall Street as German yields continue to support the euro.
EUR/USD climbed to a 3-week peak of 1.1385 but then retreated more than 100 pips before finding support at the 1.1260 area and resumed the upside. The pair has climbed back to 1.1347 and it is currently trading at 1.1329, up 0.43% on the day.
Greece talks remain unresolved
The shared currency remains on a recovery path ever since bottoming out at 1.0819 late May, despite lingering uncertainty coming from Greece bailout talks. On Wednesday, Greek PM Tsipras is expected to meet German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande in Brussels to continue negotiations after Athens submitted a new proposal on Tuesday.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, a break above 1.1385 would pave the way toward 1.1400 (psychological level) and 1.1448 (May 18 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.1260 (daily low), 1.1213 (Jun 9 low) and 1.1200 (psychological level).
June 10,2015
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Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in May
Read more in Forex News
June 11,2015
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US initial jobless claims stay below 300K for a 14th consecutive week
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the first time applications for unemployment benefits last week stayed below 300K for the 14th consecutive week, indicating the resilience in the labor market.
The initial jobless claims increased by 2,000 to 279K in the week ended June 5. The actual figure was slightly higher than the consensus estimate of 277K. The four-week average of claims, which provides a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, climbed to 278,750 last week, from 275,000.
Meanwhile, the continuing claims rose by 61,000 to 2.27 million in the week ended May 30. The sustained strength in the labor market is likely to translate into higher consumption, as indicated by the rise in the retail sales released today.
June 11,2015
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US retail sales rebound strongly after 1Q weakness - ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the US retail sales data result for May, James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, notes that details suggest the consumer psyche of saving rather than spending continued, but September looks likely for a rate hike.
Key Quotes
“US retail sales for May have rebounded after the weather depressed readings seen in recent months. They rose 1.2%MoM, in line with market expectations while April was revised up to +0.2%MoM from 0.0 and March is now reported as +1.5% versus +1.1% previously. This shows a marked improvement in consumer spending on the December-February period where we saw three consecutive contractions.”
“Motor vehicles were particularly strong, rising 2%MoM and building material saw sales rise 2.1% and gasoline station sales rose 3.7%. Nonetheless, even if we strip out these volatile components, the so called “control” group (which tends to better match the pattern in broader consumer spending), shows that spending was strong. This core measure of retail sales rose 0.7%MoM versus the 0.5% consensus and again there were upward revisions to the past couple of months’ data.”
“Consequently, this report backs up the assumption that we didn’t see a change in consumer psyche – that of saving rather than spending. Indeed, it is pretty clear that the weakness at the start of the year was weather related. This view is backed up by the rebound in housing activity and the decent payrolls number for April. As such it should give markets greater visibility on the likely path of Fed policy with September looking likely for the start of the tightening cycle.”
June 11,2015
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Chilean central bank keeps the hawkish stance – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Eduardo Suarez, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, reviewed the recent statement by the Chilean central bank (BCCh) after its monetary policy meeting.
Key Quotes
“The BCCh issued a very brief statement last night after its MPC meeting, where it left most of its message intact”.
“On the external front, the central bank noted the gradual rebound in global growth, but also highlighted rising global interest rates, as well as diminishing capital flows into EM”.
“On the domestic front, the BCCh described the recent performance of the Chilean economy as “in line with the Monetary Policy Report”, including inflation, which is expected to remain high for some time”.
“However, inflation expectations are seen as anchored, which probably explains why the bias of the central bank remained a vigilant pause”.
“The BCCh noted the slowdown in wage increases, and did not mention indexation this time. We think the statement was fairly consistent with recent communication, although maybe a little less hawkish”.
June 12,2015
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EUR/GBP targets fib 22 April low
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.7237 with a high of 0.7258 and a low of 0.7196.
EUR/GBP remains better offered and the weight of the ECB’s asset purchases programme has been keeping the cross capped on the upside while the past week has been kind to Sterling after the trigger point that was Carney's Mansion house speech. The cross has dropped back from the 0.74 handle and bears are, so far, held up at 0.7200 support.
EUR/GBP below key 55D MA
Technically, the slide back lower has reached the 55 day ma at 0.7241 and loer which indicates that we could be on the way to 0.7127/23 (Fibo + 22nd April low), as noted by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank. "Resistance at 0.7391 is regarded as the last defence for the 0.7482 May peak. We will neutralise our outlook for now as the move feels somewhat directional. Above 0.7482 will introduce potential to the 0.7685/94, the 38.2% retracement of the move down from 2013 and the 55 week ma."
June 12,2015
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London Close: GBP/USD rockets to fresh June highs
FXStreet (Orlando) - The British Pound jumped 90 pips against the US Dollar from 1.5490 to fresh June's highs above 1.5580 as the London close arrived and investors are buying the GBP ahead the weekend with Greece debt, Tsipras, Juncker and Grexit on the spotline.
The GBP/USD broke out the consolidation range between 1.5480 and 1.5530 and it accelerated to break previous highs at 1.5555 too. In addition, the US Dollar index DXY went into the negative territory following softness in the US yields.
GBP/USD levels
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5567, up 0.33% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5584 and low at 1.5467. GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
If the pair consolidates levels above 1.5550, it will find resistances at 1.5580, 1.5600 and 1.5620. To the downside, supports are at 1.5530, 1.5500 and 1.5460.
June 12,2015
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US Industrial Production in May expected to see the first advance in six months - TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the US data releases ahead in the day, the TD Securities Team expects the industrial production data to see a 0.3%mom increase in May.
Key Quotes
“Industrial production is forecast to have increased by 0.3% m/m in May (in line with market expectations) the first advance in this series in six months, led by manufacturing. Capacity utilization is expected to increase to 78.5%.”
“The June edition of the Empire Manufacturing Index will also be released and here the market is looking for an increase to 6.0 from 3.1.”
“The NAHB Housing Market Index for June is also expected to show improving sentiment, rising to a forecasted 56 from 54. The April TICs report will round out the day’s releases.”
June 15,2015
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Key events in the US: Industrial production expected to rise to 0.2%mom – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team previews and shares their forecast for the US data releases ahead – Industrial Production, Empire State manufacturing survey and the NAHB housing sentiment.
Key Quotes
“In the euro area, the calendar is second-tier, but in the US, the combination of the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and NAHB housing sentiment is interesting, albeit having probably not too much market moving potential. The Empire State headline index for June is expected slightly higher at 6 from 3 previously, which suggests a marginal better climate. The sector is still feeling the impact from the stronger dollar and lower oil prices, but orders are slightly higher. While the index is volatile, we don’t expect it to change dramatically and thus ahead of the FOMC, it shouldn’t move the market.”
“Industrial production is expected to be up a meagre 0.2% M/M. It would be the first positive monthly figure in six months. Manufacturing output is expected slightly and might be even stronger than the 0.3% M/M consensus figure. However, mining is probably still weighing on total production and so may be utility output.”
“For the NAHB homebuilders sentiment we expect the small decline in May to be reversed with the index climbing to 56 from 54, which would keep homebuilders’ sentiment quite positive, in line with other housing data.”
June 15,2015
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Credit Agricole: EUR risks remain tilted to the downside – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Credit Agricole, the combination of Greece exit fears and a potential optimistic tone of the June FOMC Meeting might keep the EUR vulnerable against AUD and NZD, as noted by eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“Our central case is still for a compromise to be found most likely in the form of a partial bailout extension in exchange for the implementation of some of the reforms. This should help avoid imminent default ahead of the IMF loan repayment next week. It could still leave open the prospect for a potential referendum in Greece on the full reform package in July, however, and keep the risks for EUR on the downside.”
“Market uneasiness could grow ahead of the Eurogroup meeting and keep the downside pressure on EURUSD in place for now.”
“One key question is also how the Fed will respond to the intensifying uncertainty about Greece. We suspect that while Yellen will try not to rock the boat too much, it will be hard for her to ignore the latest improvement in US data and especially various inflation gauges. Positive surprises from today's US IP could fuel more hawkish expectations some more. All that should keep USD supported broadly this week.”
“Lingering Greek fears and more constructive message from the Fed could make for a less favourable backdrop for risk correlated G10 currencies. We suspect that the likes of AUD and NZD could remain vulnerable alongside EUR.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
June 15,2015
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EUR/USD sell on rallies – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at Westpac recommend selling EUR/USD on strength.
Key Quotes
“EUR continues to hold on the firmer side of expectations. At least one EUR positive in recent weeks though looks set to fade - the bund sell-off. Historical analogs (the 2003 JGB sell off-off and the 2013 US treasury taper tantrum) suggest that we have finally approached the minimum time frame for thinking about some moderation in the pace of the sell-off with yields typically stabilising after rising 100-120bp two-three months after they bottomed”.
“EUR gains on multiple crosses in recent weeks should thus begin to moderate, if not reverse. Higher yields and Greek worries should prompt a good pullback in the ZEW survey too while the FOMC is more likely than not to raise Sep Fed tightening expectations. All told the mix of event risk offers more headwinds than tailwinds for EUR. EUR/USD a sell into the 1.14-1.15 zone”.
June 16,2015
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HUF expected to pick up pace in the medium term – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Thomas Harr at Danske Bank sees the Hungarian currency appreciating in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“HUF has weakened recently on broader EUR strength and higher global yields. As a result, we have lifted our EUR/HUF forecasts moderately”.
“We continue to believe that Hungary’s fairly strong external position is likely to be supportive for the HUF in the medium term”.
“Furthermore, fairly strong growth and an expected pickup in inflation are likely to keep the carry on the forint relatively attractive. Therefore, we continue to expect medium-term appreciation of the forint”.
June 16,2015
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Bunds could climb further – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank believe the German Bunds still have room for further upside.
Key Quotes
“The sell-off probably reflects profit taking after yields dropped to a historical low”.
“The higher inflation numbers in May and stronger US data, which indicate that the Fed will hike rates in September, together with more upbeat recovery expectations for the eurozone have probably also contributed to higher yields”.
“Furthermore, it seems that the ECB is not overly concerned about the rapid rise in yields and volatility”.
“Poor market liquidity – due to tighter regulation – might have exaggerated the moves in yields this year”.
“However, core inflation is still very low, the QE programme will continue unabated until September next year and Greece might be in focus for a prolonged period of time”.
“Hence, any further upside we see for 10Y rates on a 12M horizon is mainly due to a spill-over effect from US rates, and on a 3M horizon we see basically unchanged yields in the 10Y segment”.
“For lower maturities we see slight downside potential given our view that the ECB will keep policy rates negative for at least two more years”.
June 16,2015
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CNY remains well supported – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Flemming Nielsen expects CNY to hold its ground against the backdrop of increasing pressures for a weaker currency.
Key Quotes
“It is still our view that China will not allow CNY to depreciate substantially despite data suggesting that growth continued to slow in early 2015”.
“In our view, CNY remains well supported by an increasing trade balance surplus in the wake of a sharp decline in import prices and China’s relatively closed capital account, which limits capital outflow”.
“China’s ambition to have CNY included in the SDR later in 2015 also suggests that it will behave like a responsible stakeholder ahead of the IMF decision this autumn”.
“We do not expect the daily trading band to be widened until after the IMF decision”.
“We still expect a moderate appreciation of CNY within the current trading band but a generally stronger USD limits the appreciation potential in the short run”.
June 17,2015
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GBP rallies on strong UK wage growth, EUR/GBP at 0.70 in 3M – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analyst at Danske Bank, Mikael Olai Milhøj, reviews the UK labour market data release and further forecast EUR/GBP to head lower towards 0.70 over the next 3 and 6 months.
Key Quotes
“The UK labour market statistics released today show that wage growth accelerated in April. Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses (three-month average) increased to 2.7% y/y in April from 2.3% in March (which was revised up from 2.2%) and thus wage growth is at its highest level since February 2009. Wage growth in the private sector is at 3.2% y/y. Higher wage growth is important for the timing of the first hike and thus today’s release supports our (non-consensus) call that Bank of England will hike already in November this year.”
“The combination of increasing wage growth and very low inflation implies increasing real wage growth, which is at its highest level since September 2007. As inflation is mainly low due to the drop in energy and food prices, this supports private consumption and thus the UK recovery.”
“The unemployment rate (3M) was unchanged at 5.5% in April in line with both our expectation and consensus. The unemployment rate is more or less back to normal (as measured by the Bank of England’s estimated medium-term equilibrium rate), which is an indication that the slack in the labour has diminished.”
“The number of unemployed in April declined by 43,000 (3m/3m). This was lower than the increase in employment (+114,000 3m/3m), as the number of economic active persons increased by 71,000 3m/3m. From an economic perspective it is very positive that both employment and the workforce are increasing. However, the change in the claimant count level indicates that the decline in unemployment may have started to slow down.”
“The GBP rallied on the strong UK wage growth. We target EUR/GBP at 0.70 in 3M and 6M but risks are that the cross temporarily undershoots our 3M and 6M estimates.”
June 17,2015
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SNB expected to hold policy, Norges Bank rate cut expected – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the SNB and Norges Bank policy decision scheduled to be released tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“The Swiss National Bank and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow. The SNB is not expected to change policy, but it may introduce an element of forward guidance, which would be aimed at ensuring investors that policy will be easy for a long time. Meanwhile, as an aside, the SNB's 7-day dollar repo rate ended higher at 64 bp from 62 bp.”
“The outlook for the Norges Bank is a close call. Prior to last week's capex news, the market seemed comfortable with a 25 bp rate cut that would bring the deposit rate to 1.0%. We still think that is the risk.”
June 17,2015
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SNB expected to hold policy, Norges Bank rate cut expected – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the SNB and Norges Bank policy decision scheduled to be released tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“The Swiss National Bank and Norway's central banks meet tomorrow. The SNB is not expected to change policy, but it may introduce an element of forward guidance, which would be aimed at ensuring investors that policy will be easy for a long time. Meanwhile, as an aside, the SNB's 7-day dollar repo rate ended higher at 64 bp from 62 bp.”
“The outlook for the Norges Bank is a close call. Prior to last week's capex news, the market seemed comfortable with a 25 bp rate cut that would bring the deposit rate to 1.0%. We still think that is the risk.”
June 17,2015
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Dovish FOMC could fuel a drop in USD/CHF – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, sees downside potential for USD/CHF towards 0.9240 on a dovish FOMC outcome.
Key Quotes
“With no signs of Greece deal, EUR/CHF sell-off could continue. A Dovish FOMC would only add fuel to the CHF rally and lead to a drop in the USD/CHF pair. In light of the threat of a Greek default accompanied by a dovish FOMC, CHF could turn out to be the biggest gainer against the USD and Euro.”
USD/CHF – Downtrend intact, further weakness below 0.9240
“The daily chart shows strong support at 0.9240 (50% Fib R of 0.8352-1.0128). The spot witnessed minor bounce from the same on couple of occasions since last week.”
“The downtrend is intact as shown by falling trend line. A break below 0.9240 opens doors for 0.9071 (May 7 low) and 0.9031 (61.8% Fib R of 0.8352-1.0128).”
“Weekly 50-MA currently at 0.9178 could act as immediate support.”
June 17,2015
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USD/CAD around lows on US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar continues its march south on Thursday, relegating USD/CAD to session lows in the 1.2140 region.
USD/CAD weaker on poor US CPI
The pair lost some extra pips following the weaker data from the US inflation figures, with headline consumer prices coming in flat on a year to May and rising 1.7% on a yearly basis vs. 1.8% forecasted. Further data showed Initial Claims coming on the positive side, dropping more that estimated to 267K in the week ended on June 12th.
Ahead in the session, the regional manufacturing survey by the Philly Fed is due preceding the Leading Indicator tracked by the Conference Board.
USD/CAD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is down 0.68% at 1.2144 with the next support at 1.2126 (low May 19) ahead of 1.1982 (low May 15) and finally 1.1920 (low May 14). On the flip side, a break above 1.2238 (high Jun.18) would aim for 1.2242 (Kijun Sen) and then 1.2253 (low Jun.11).
June 18,2015
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EUR/CHF expected to see 1.10, 12-M view – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Christin Tuxen, PhD, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, expects EUR/CHF to see some relief later in the year as Eurozone growth and inflation picks up, and hence forecast the pair to see 1.10 levels over a 12 month view.
Key Quotes
“We maintain the view that the CHF could strengthen near term on Greece worries and ECB QE weighing on the EUR still; we see EUR/CHF at 1.04 in 1-3M.”
“However, we emphasise that EUR/CHF (and hence the SNB) will get some relief later in the year when euro-zone growth and inflation pick up and the pricing of an eventual ECB exit moves to the fore as a result. The SNB will thus likely keep policy rates at - 0.75% for now. We continue to target EUR/CHF at 1.10 in 12M.”
June 18,2015
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Eurogroup Meeting: Trilemma between austerity, reform and debt relief – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team comments on the ongoing Greece crisis, noting that Merkel is now appearing to take control of the negotiations just as Tsipras did by removing the Greece FM.
Key Quotes
“It is nearly a foregone conclusion that today’s Eurogroup meeting will not provide closure for the Greek crisis. Merkel’s speech to the German parliament today showed no sign that the creditors are yielding. The EU Summit a week from now is the next real opportunity. This is important. Just as Greece’s Tsipras had removed his finance minister from negotiations in the hope that it created a less antagonistic atmosphere, so too now does Merkel appear to be taking control of the negotiations from her finance minister.”
“Known for her caution, and moving at the last possible moment, as she did with Greece back in 2010-2011, Merkel may have waited too long this time as positions have hardened, and trust has been further eroded. Ultimately, national interests are involved. Germany is acting like a creditor and Greece is acting like a debtor. When the shoes were on different feet, Germany acted like a debtor and Greece a creditor. Each drapes their position in moralistic terms.”
“We continue to believe that a Greek exit would be more costly for Europe and Greece than a compromise here. There is a trilemma playing out between, austerity, reform, and debt relief.”
June 18,2015
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It’s really unbelievable to see market move how it’s doing in last few weeks, I have made great profits and this has been one of the biggest months for me in terms of profits, but I can’t let this happiness share with me alone because the big part of this success has to go with this lovely company OctaFX.

I have been a really regular follower of these analysis and I believe that anyone who has followed it will know how good this is and on personal note I have unrealistic results of above 85% in period from Jan to now, it’s a long time so the consistency that I have got just because of this is mind boggling not just for me but anyone watching.

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Reasons for a stronger dollar – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at JP Morgan exposed their reasoning backing a firmer USD in the upcoming periods.
Key Quotes
“The reasons we still project further USD strength beginning at some point this summer are the following:”
“(1) the labour market should create inflation pressures that the Fed would start responding to probably in September;”
“(2) as the Fed responds, it will still be the only central bank hiking in H2;”
“(3) most vulnerabilities of the non-USD currencies (high valuations, negative real policy rates, current account deficits) persist two years after the taper tantrum; and”
“(4) illiquidity could exaggerate bond and FX moves in an otherwise dull Fed cycle where modest and gradual seem the buzzwords”.
June 22,2015
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EUR/CHF rises to fresh session high of 1.0472
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The shared currency is gaining ground against the safe haven CHF, taking the EUR/CHF pair to a fresh session high of 1.0472 levels.
EUR/CHF takes out hourly 100-MA resistance
During the move higher, the pair took out the hourly 100-MA resistance located at 1.0456. The common currency is being bought against the safe haven currency after the EU chief expressed confidence that a deal with Greece would be reached by this weekend.
Moreover, the EU chief’s statement helped weaken the bid tone on the Swiss Franc, leading to an unwinding of a safe haven CHF longs.
EUR/CHF Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1.0474 (hourly 200-MA), above which the pair could target 1.048. On the flip side, a break below 1.0464 could see the pair re-test its hourly 50-MA located at 1.0451.
June 22,2015
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Housing Data reaction: USD/CAD trades at daily highs
FXStreet (Barranquilla) - The USD/CAD is trading now on the positive field following the upbeat US housing data; After falling 50 pips in the European session, the US Dollar finally found buyers against the Canadian Dollar as the pair bounced off 1.2215 to price at daily highs above 1.2280.
Existing home sales rose 5.1% in May, well above expected. Annual rate is now 5.35M, the highest since August 2013. On the other hand, Europe consumer confidence was reported down to -5.6 in June; the worse since February.
Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2282, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2288 and low at 1.2217. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.
USD/CAD Forecast
Anil Panchal from Admiral Markets said in the latest USD/CAD Forecast Poll that the "failure to break 1.2170-60 horizontal mark could pullback the pair towards 1.2400 region."
In addition, according to JPMorgan, Labor market creating inflationary pressures; Fed rate hike in September; most vulnerabilities of the non-USD; and illiquidity made the case for a stronger dollar.
USD/CAD Level
If the USD/CAD manages to extend gains, resistances are at 1.2300, 1.2350 and 1.2360. To the downside, supports are at 1.2215, 1.2200 and 1.2140.
June 22,2015
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No formal decision on Greece expected to come from today’s summit




FXStreet (Córdoba) - Heading into the European leaders summit, French President Hollande and German Chancellor Merkel agreed that there is potential for a Greek deal, but latest proposals are insufficient to make a decision today.


French President Francois Hollande said that no formal decision will come from today’s summit but it will open the way for resolution.


Hollande's comments echoed German Chancellor Angela Merkel's who stated that there is potential for a deal with Greece, but proposals are insufficient to make a decision today.











June 22,2015

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US durable goods orders fall 1.8% in May
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data reported by the US commerce department showed today that orders for durable goods in May dropped 1.8% after a downwardly revised 1.5% fall in April. The headline figure was expected to drop 1.0% in May.
Though the headline figure dropped, the orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, rose 0.3%. Orders for such goods were projected to rise 0.5%. Bookings for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.4% last month after a 0.3% decrease in April.
The drop in the headline figure was largely due to a drop in the volatile aircraft category. Orders for business equipments continued to rise for the second month, which is slightly positive.
June 23,2015
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USD/CAD tests lows near 1.2300
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After an ephemeral visit to the 1.2300 neighborhood, USD/CAD has now returned to the 1.2340 area.
USD/CAD recovers post-US data
The pair has quickly reversed the knee-jerk to the vicinity of 1.2300 the figure after US Durable Goods Orders missed expectations during the last month. In fact, Orders contracted 1.8% on a monthly basis vs. a 0.5% gain forecast-ed, while Orders excluding the Transportation sector advanced 0.5% MoM vs. 0.6% anticipated.
Next of note in the pair will be New Home Sales (525K exp.) followed by the flash Markit’s manufacturing PMI for the current month.
USD/CAD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is up 0.29% at 1.2347 and a breakout of 1.2360 (high Jun.15) would aim for 1.2442 (high Jun.9) and then 1.2472 (high Jun.8). On the other hand, the immediate support lines up at 1.2307 (low Jun.23) ahead of 1.2127 (low Jun.18) and finally 1.2072 (76.4% of 1.1920-1.2563).
June 23,2015
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UK BBA Mortgage Approvals rise in May, miss expectations
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The number of loans for house purchases increased in May, driven by post-election political and economic certainty, and increased buyers' appetite.
In May, the number of mortgage approvals rose to 42,530, up from 42,020 in April, but less than estimated, according to the British Banking Association (BBA) report published on Wednesday.
Richard Woolhouse, chief economist at the BBA, state, "The increase in mortgage approvals this month is consistent with the trend we’ve seen since the start of the year. The numbers show that the property market remains buoyant after the general election. Fierce competition between lenders means that there are some great mortgage deals available from the high street banks."
June 24,2015
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EUR/USD keeps the 1.12 handle pre-Eurogroup
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency keeps the buoyant tone on Wednesday, sending EUR/USD to test highs near 1.1240 ahead of the Eurogroup meeting.
Greece remains at the top of the agenda in today’s Eurogroup meeting to be held in Brussels, with Greek PM A.Tsipras expected to previously meet with Juncker, Draghi and Lagarde. Further news saw the ECB extending its emergency funding to the Greek banks under its ELA mechanism, all in light of the persistent deterioration of the Greek banking system in response to the increasing deposits withdrawals by Greek savers.
In the data space, the German IFO came in below consensus in all of its components, although spot paid little attention, if any, to the release.
EUR/USD levels to consider
As of writing the pair is up 0.38% at 1.1210 and a breakout of 1.1236 (high Jun.23) would open the door to 1.1349 (high Jun.23) and finally 1.1404 (high Jun.22). On the other hand, the next support lines up at 1.1154 (low Jun.24) followed by 1.1135 (low Jun.23) and then 1.1087 (low Jun.8).
June 24,2015
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German IFO hurt by Greece – ING
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analyst at ING Bank Carsten Brzeski assessed the recent poor results from the German IFO.
Key Quotes
“Creeping Greek fears. The number one topic in Germany has finally reached German businesses: the Greek crisis and fears of a Grexit. After a long period of stable business optimism, Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, dropped to 107.4 in June, from 108.5 in May”.
“Even if the doses has been reduced somewhat, the German economy is still on steroids. Despite some recent rebounds, the weak euro exchange rate and low energy prices are still artificially extending the last phase of a very positive reform-growth cycle”.
“Even after today’s drop, the level of the Ifo remains comfortably high. In fact, comparing the levels of the second quarter with the levels of the first quarter suggests a growth acceleration of the German economy in Q2, confirming our positive growth outlook”.
“All in all, today’s Ifo index shows that German businesses are not immune against the Greek crisis and that Grexit fears are not only discussed in the local pub but also in boardrooms. However, for the time being, these fears should not (yet) have a negative impact on the economy”.
June 24,2015
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USD/CHF: CHF strengthens on safe-haven appeal
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss franc remains heavily bid versus the American dollar in the mid-European session, driving USD/CHF deeper in to losses just above 0.93 handle. The Swiss currency emerged the biggest gainer this session so far mainly on the back of increased demand for safety assets as Greek debt deal lurks.
USD/CHF drops from 0.9375
Currently, the USD/CHF pair trades -0.35% lower at 0.9332, recovering slightly from fresh session lows printed at 0.9319. The Swiss franc gained upside momentum versus the greenback largely on the back of generalized risk-on moods amid uncertainty surrounding Greece with markets speculating increased Grexit fears. While traders flock to safe-havens such as CHF ahead of Euro group meeting tomorrow.
Moreover, EUR/USD resilience also supports the franc, knocking-off USD/CHF almost 50-pips lower. Meanwhile, the dollar index which measures the greenback’s strength against its major peers, now trades muted around 95.35, near session lows at 95.28.
Karen Jones, Analyst at Commerzbank notes, “USD/CHF has started to erode the 2 month downtrend. A close above here should be enough to trigger a recovery to the 0.9543 end of May high and the top of the cloud resistance at 0.9600.” While she recommends buying on dips to 0.9320 and further add at 0.9320.
USD/CHF Technical Levels
To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.9375 (Today’s High) levels and above which it could extend gains to 0.9408 (June 11 High) levels. To the downside, immediate support might be located at 0.9300 levels and below that at 0.9272 (June 15 Low) levels.
June 26,2015
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EUR/GBP negative below 0.7324 – Commerzbank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The short term perspective for the cross remains bearish below the 6-month downtrend currently at 0.7324.
Key Quotes
“EUR/GBP is sitting on the .7074 support line and is currently finding some support there. Intraday rallies are indicated to terminate circa .7150 for losses to the .7057 May low and the .7015 March low”.
“Below here lies the .7000 psychological support and the .6985 6 year down channel”.
“Rallies will find initial resistance at .7214, the 55 day ma. This guards the .7324 resistance line and the tougher resistance at .7385/91 – this is the March high and the 78.6% retracement”.
June 26,2015
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EU preparing an emergency plan if Greek talks fail – MNI
FXStreet (Mumbai) - MNI is reporting that the European Union is preparing an emergency plan if Greek rejects the deal offer on Saturday.
The report says Greece’s creditors will not back down from their proposal and the proposal is for an extension till the end of November.
Meanwhile, German finance minister Schaeuble said the Eurozone must not risk credibility by spending beyond limits.
June 26,2015
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GBP/USD recovers to 1.5700




FXStreet (Mumbai) - GBP/USD keeps losses in the European session, recovering from fresh session lows, as the US dollar paused its upsurge and gave back half its gains versus its major peers, lending helping hand to the GBP bulls. While ongoing Greek concerns continue to boost the risk-off moods untouched, keeping the pound in red.


GBP/USD pressured amid Greek uncertainty


The GBP/USD pair trades -0.31% lower at 1.5702, recovering from fresh session lows reached at 1.5685 last hours. The cable manages to fight back and erased partial losses mainly on US dollar retreat across the board.


The dollar index which measures the greenback’s strength against its major peers, now trades 0.37% higher at 95.95, retracing from 96.60 highs. The USD bulls took charge earlier this session and pushed GBP/USD lower as the greenback strengthened on tumbling EUR/USD on Greek concerns.


Later in the day, the cable will track US dollar moves amid lack of UK fundamentals while US pending home sales and fresh Greek updates will be closely watched.


GBP/USD Levels to consider


The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5739 (Today’s High) above which gains could be extended to 1.5800 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5685 (Today’s Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.5623 (June 17 Low) levels.






June 29,2015

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ECB rejects ELA ceiling increase for Greek banks
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to media reports, Greece had requested the European Central Bank to increase the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) ceiling for Greek banks by €6 billion but it was rejected.
That leaves emergency funding for Greek institutions at € 89 billion until the referendum.
Greek banks are closed this week as Athens imposes capital controls unable to face increasing withdraws after negotiations with the Eurogroup broke down last Saturday when the Greek government called a referendum on the bailout program.
Media is reporting the a Greek government official saying Greek pension withdrawals to be limited to €240.
June 29,2015
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GBP/USD near term risk lies to the downside – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, sees near-term risks for GBP/USD tilted to the downside, with technicals signalling towards a short-term bearish outlook for the pair.
Key Quotes
“GBP is soft, down a modest 0.3% from Friday’s close on the back of broader market sentiment driven by Greece. Near term risk lies to the downside, however we look to the potential for some offsetting gains in response to Tuesday’s final GDP revision for Q1. PMI’s will round out the remainder of the week, beginning with the manufacturing PMI on Wednesday.”
“GBPUSD short-term technicals: bearish—Monday’s candle hints to limited upside potential as we note a sizeable upper shadow. A rising wedge formation has taken shape since mid-May, its lower bound currently seen around 1.5500. Rising wedges are typically resolved to the downside.”
June 29,2015
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AUD/USD looks ahead at Chinese manufacturing PMI's - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman noted the forthcoming Chinese data that will be an influential factor in markets and subsequently could be effecting the price of AUD/USD.
Key Quotes:
"China reports official manufacturing PMI Wednesday, expected at 50.4 vs. 50.2 in May. "
"We note that the HSBC flash June manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 from 49.2 final in May."
"The stock market swoon is surely raising concerns."
"Regardless of the market gyrations, however, we thought that this latest round of stimulus was the right response to soft economic data. More stimulus is likely to be seen in H2."
June 29,2015
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Greece asks for 2-year ESM bailout program and debt restructuring
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Greece requests a 2-year bailout program from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) with parallel restructuring of debt, according to Prime Minister Tsipras office.
June 30,2015
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SEB: EUR/JPY needs to push above 137.20/138.80 to get off bearish phase – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Technical Strategy Team at SEB, believes that EUR/JPY requires to reclaim the 137.20/138.80 21day EMA band to ease bearish pressure, as noted by eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“The short-term (bullish) "Cloud" and the short-term downside stretch (as defined by the deviation away from its monthly average) were respected. A long lower shadow and a high session close puts pressure back on the 21day exponentially weighted moving average band (137.20/138.80) which in reality also has to be reclaimed to get the pair off the bearish edge.”
This forecast has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
June 30,2015
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Neutral outlook on PLN – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The outlook for the Polish zloty remains on the neutral side so far, suggested strategists at BAML.
Key Quotes
“We are on track to our 3.5% growth forecast for 2015. Industrial production growth recovered to 5.3% yoy in May from a soft April reading of 2.7% in seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, maintaining the growth momentum at the beginning of the year”.
“The robust 1Q growth rate, with recent PLN weakness and an increase in political uncertainty, implies the National Bank of Poland will stay neutral. The Monetary Policy Council has been sending strong signals to the market about its intention to end the easing cycle. The recent PLN weakness eased the MPC’s concerns about higher risks of inflation undershooting. Our baseline has the policy rate steady at 1.50% through 2016, and we note that the risk of easing has fallen significantly”.
“Bund volatility and Greece talks are a risk to sentiment in the region, including that for PLN. We stay neutral outright but hold a short PLN/HUF position, as the cross seems overvalued from a longer-term perspective”.
June 30,2015
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USD/CHF climbs above 0.9330 amid new talks
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The US dollar gained momentum as traders focus on the London fixing and pushed USD/CHF to break the short-term resistance area located around 0.9330. The pair jumped to 0.9380. Currently trades at 0.9360/65, near the area it opened the week.
The Greek saga continues with now a proposal from Greece to extend the bailout with loans to be used exclusively to debt payments. A conference call will take place later today, announced the Eurogroup leader.
USD/CHF technical levels
Yesterday the pair dropped almost 200 pips from the highs and bottomed at 0.9242. Today made the reverse move and rose 140 pips from 0.9245 to 0.9380.
To the upside USD/CHF could face resistance at 0.9380 and above here at 0.9400 and 0.9425/30 (June 29 high). On the flip side, immediate support might now lie at 0.9330, followed by 0.9285 and 0.9240/50 (daily low).
June 30,2015
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'No way' the Eurogroup will release funds to Greece before tonight's deadline
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Eurozone officials say that there is "no way" Eurogroup will release funds to Greece to repay the IMF € 1.6 billion before tonight's deadline.
June 30,2015
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EUR/CHF rises to 1.0450, above last week close
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/CHF rose back above 1.0400 and climbed to 1.0451 reaching a fresh daily high amid a weak Swiss franc. The pair remains near the highs.
EUR and Greece
Greek officials put forward a new proposal to its creditors for a new bailout program for 2 years, with funds used to debt payments. According to reports Angela Merkel said that they will not negotiate anything new before the Greek referendum.
The euro was unaffected by the latest reports while the Swissy is among the worst performers in the currency market during the American session.
EUR/CHF levels to watch
The recent rally was capped by 1.0450, above the next resistance could be located at 1.0480 followed by 1.0500. On the opposite direction support might lie at 1.0370, 1.0310 and 1.0280.
June 30,2015
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Tsipras urges Greek public to vote 'NO' to creditors terms - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted Tsipras recent plea to the Greek public.
Key Quotes:
"In a television address PM Tsipras has told the Greek people that “they will not throw us out of the Eurozone...because the cost is immense”. An estimated 12,000 people gathered outside Athen’s Syntagma Square to support their leader in his bid to persuade the Greek people to vote ‘no’ to an acceptance of the creditors terms in Sunday’s referendum."
"Tsipras is taking the view that a ‘no’ vote would strengthen Greece’s negotiating position. Meanwhile some European officials are indicating that this referendum may be seen as a straight choice between Greek choosing to remain in or out of the Eurozone."
June 30,2015
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DXY pushes higher around 95.50
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, has recovered from the dip to sub-95.00 levels and is now printing session tops in the 95.50/55 band.
DXY firmer as bid tone re-emerges
The dollar has managed to recover the initial bid tone after dropping to session lows near 94.80, helped by month/quarter-end flows and the still confusion scenario in Greece ahead of the decisive referendum on Sunday.
Data wise in the US economy, the S&P/Case-Shiller index and the Chicago PMI both missed expectations today, while Consumer Confidence surpassed the median for the current month.
DXY relevant levels
As of writing the index is advancing 0.69% at 95.44 and a break above 96.39 (high Jun. 29) would open the door to 96.54 (high Jun.8) and finally 96.91 (high Jun.5). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 94.30 (low Jun.23) ahead of 93.81 (low Jun.22) and then 93.57 (low Jun.18).
June 30,2015
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DXY pushes higher around 95.50
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, has recovered from the dip to sub-95.00 levels and is now printing session tops in the 95.50/55 band.
DXY firmer as bid tone re-emerges
The dollar has managed to recover the initial bid tone after dropping to session lows near 94.80, helped by month/quarter-end flows and the still confusion scenario in Greece ahead of the decisive referendum on Sunday.
Data wise in the US economy, the S&P/Case-Shiller index and the Chicago PMI both missed expectations today, while Consumer Confidence surpassed the median for the current month.
DXY relevant levels
As of writing the index is advancing 0.69% at 95.44 and a break above 96.39 (high Jun. 29) would open the door to 96.54 (high Jun.8) and finally 96.91 (high Jun.5). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 94.30 (low Jun.23) ahead of 93.81 (low Jun.22) and then 93.57 (low Jun.18).
June 30,2015
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DAX jumps over 2% on Tsipras bailout
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Germany’s benchmark index, the DAX bounced-back sharply, snapping previous declines and rallied higher tracking other European indices following media reports that Greece is ready to accept bailout conditions, although with certain changes.
Currently, the DAX 30 trades nearly 2.22% higher at 11188.30 levels, swinging back higher above 11k marker. The German stocks halted its two-day decline and rebounded higher as euro zone officials are set to discuss Greece once again, with Athens reportedly stating it will accept its creditors' bailout conditions proposed last weekend.
The index trades with a clear positive market breadth with all stocks on the winning end. Volkswagen AG leads the index, up 2.90% followed by Daimler AG, gaining 2.80%. Deutsche bank is also recording a 2.73% gain on the day.
DAX Technical Levels
The index has an immediate resistance at 11299.61. Meanwhile, support is seen at 11000 levels and 10806 levels.
July 01,2015
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Referendum will go ahead – Greek government official
FXStreet (Mumbai) - As per Reuters reports, a Greek government official said that Greece will go ahead with the July 5 referendum and said the negotiations will continue after the vote.
Earlier today, the FT reported that Greek PM is willing to accept all the demands put forward by the creditors, which triggered speculation that a referendum may not be held.
Meanwhile, Germany’s Schaeuble said that he has not even read the latest proposal from Greece, while stating that there is no scope for talks before the referendum.
July 01,2015
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GBP/USD posts daily highs after disappointing US nonfarm payrolls
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD saw a short-lived spike and printed fresh daily highs after the release of disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report.
Weak US employment data weighs on the dollar
US economy created 223,000 new jobs in June, missing expectations of 230,000 and below a downwardly revised gain of 254,000 in May. The unemployment rate edged lower to 5.3% from 5.5% the previous month but wages were flat and the participation fell.
Separated data showed US initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 281,000 in the week ended June 27, above the 270,000 expected.
The greenback fell across the board as downbeat employment data weighed on expectations the Fed could begin raising rates later this year.
GBP/USD rose to a high of 1.5636 before quickly pulling back to mid-range levels. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.5608, virtually unchanged on the day.
July 02,2015
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Positioning for USD/JPY upside using options ahead of near-term risk events – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Nomura, position for USD/JPY upside into the September FOMC meeting using options, expecting the pair to break above 125.86.
Key Quotes
“We are adding fresh USD/JPY long exposures via 3m call spread (125.50- 128.00), which cost 0.46% at a spot reference of 123.17, with a max payout of 1.95%. We commit $100K to the position, in our model $100mn portfolio. Ahead of the September FOMC, we expect USD/JPY to break the recent high (125.86), and are recommending to position for that.”
July 02,2015
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Treasury yields drop as US wage growth stalls in June
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Treasuries gained, pushing the yields lower after the payrolls report in the US showed the pace of job addition sowed in June, while wage growth stalled, raising doubts whether the economy would be able to sustain rate hikes.
Rate hike expectations drop
Fed funds futures show there is a 27% chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate from near zero in September, down from 35% Wednesday. Consequently, the yield turned lower.
The 2-year yield, which mimics short-term interest rate expectations, now trades 4.7 basis points lower at 0.641%. The yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 4 basis points to 2.38%. The 30-year yield also fell to 3.179%. The interest rate sensitive 2-year yield now trades 4.7 basis points lower at 0.641%.
The pace of job additions slowed, although the number stayed below 200K. However, the growth in the average hourly earnings stalled, which raised questions whether the spike in the personal sending seen last month shall last.
July 02,2015
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USD/CHF might see an attempt towards 0.9530/43 – Commerzbank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, believes that USD/CHF might make an upside move towards 0.9530/43 and even 0.9581.
Key Quotes
“USD/CHF is looking a bit perkier as it has completely ignored the key day reversal to the downside and has eroded the near term resistance line to head into the middle of the cloud. We would allow for an attempt on the 200 day ma and the May high at .9530/43 and the top of the cloud at .9581.”
“Current Position: None. Recommended Trade: Attempt tiny longs .9375, add .9340, stop .9240”
July 02,2015
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IMF: Greece needs €50 billion in new funds and large scale debt relief
FXStreet (Córdoba) - While Greeks set up for the referendum on whether to accept more austerity measures demanded by creditors in exchange for aid, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) described Greek debt as “unsustainable” and said the country needs large scale debt relief.
In a report, the IMF said Greece needs €50 billion in new funds over the next three years and large scale debt relief to create “a breathing space” and stabilise the economy. The institution suggested it will not back up a third Greek bailout unless it included both a commitment to economic reform and debt haircuts.
The IMF estimates that even if Greece had primary surplus of 2.5% and real GDP growth of 1%, a significant haircut would still be required and warns that Greek GDP forecasts are subject to very considerable downside risks.
Extract from IMF document, via The Guardian:
“Even with concessional financing through 2018, debt would remain very high for decades and highly vulnerable to shocks.”
“Given the fragile debt dynamics, further concessions are necessary to restore debt sustainability. As an illustration, one option for recovering sustainability would be to extend the grace period to 20 years and the amortization period to 40 years on existing EU loans and to provide new official sector loans to cover financing needs falling due on similar terms at least through 2018”, says the IMF.
July 02,2015
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EUR/GBP: Headed for 0.7206 - CB
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank noted the technical conditions surrounding EUR/GBP.
Key Quotes:
"EUR/GBP has recently charted a key day reversal from the base of the 0.6985 6 year down channel. This was our medium downside target. Intraday Elliott wave counts are suggesting that we allow for recovery to the 55 day ma at 0.7206 but I have little beyond that."
"Dips lower will find minor support at 0.7080/60 ahead of 0.6985. Failure here will target the 0.6571/41 2007 low. Above 0.7212 will allow for a deeper recovery to the 0.7314 2015 resistance line."
July 02,2015
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EUR/USD stuck around 1.1100
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is retaining today’s gains vs. the greenback, with EUR/USD trading comfortably in the 1.1100 area.
EUR/USD upside capped at 1.1120
The pair could not sustain the post-Payrolls spike to session tops around 1.1120, leaving the bulk of the trade in the 1.1080/1.1100 band instead. Poor results from the US labour market during June failed to ignite a more durable bull run in the pair, which remains more dependent on the outcome of Sunday’s referendum in Greece.
Moving on to Friday’s docket in Euroland, the final figures of the Services PMIs are due ahead of EMU’s Retail Sales for the month of May (0.1% MoM exp.).
EUR/USD levels to consider
The pair is now advancing 0.39% at 1.1096 with the next resistance at 1.1171 (high Jul.1) followed by 1.1234 (high Jun.24) and finally 1.1244 (high Jun.30). On the downside, a breach of 1.1032 (low Jul.2) would target 1.1000 (psychological level) en route to 1.0955 (low Jun.29).
July 02,2015
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RBA to stay on the sidelines next week – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Rich Kelly, Strategist at TD Securities, expects the RBA to leave rates on hold at its next meeting.
Key Quotes
“We expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 2% at next week’s meeting and for the bank to exclude an explicit easing bias”.
“The statement should be a cut and paste of the June statement, so there should be no surprises”.
“The RBA remains in a period of inactivity with no fundamental catalyst to cut over the next 2-3 months”.
“Data has not been weak enough to warrant an RBA shift, even if underlying Q2 CPI (out on July 22nd) comes near the RBA’s 2.25% forecast or slightly below”.
“However the Bank is likely to reaffirm its view on the AUD stating that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary.”
July 02,2015
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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