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Aussie dollar hits four-year lows on RBA deputy governor comments



FXStreet (London) - The Australian dollar has fallen after Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Philip Lowe suggested that the RBA could be more active in its targeting of the exchange rate


In an address to the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner, Lowe said that β€œone of the challenges that lies ahead is to create the environment that encourages the investment in human capital that is ultimately required to sustain the high living standards and high returns to savers that we should be aspiring to.”


Lowe added that β€œit is important to recognise that the exchange rate, wages and the return to saving each also play a key role in how the economy is performing at any point in time.”


-β€œIn terms of the exchange rate, the RBA has been saying for a while now that a lower value of the Australian dollar would be helpful from an overall macroeconomic perspective.”


- β€œIf the exchange rate is to play its important stabilising role, it needs to go down when the terms of trade and investment are declining, just as it went up when the terms of trade and investment were rising. To date, as we expected, we have seen some adjustment, but if our assessment of the fundamentals is correct we would expect to see more in time.”


- β€œIn terms of wages, there is sometimes commentary bemoaning their high level in Australia. There are, no doubt, certain areas where wages are very high and working conditions are highly favourable and some adjustment is likely to be required. But it is also useful to recall that over the past two decades or so, aggregate wage outcomes have been consistent with the inflation target and with a trend decline in the unemployment rate.


- β€œWhile we need to pay close attention to overall labour costs, these observations point to the conclusion that concerns about the overall level of wages in Australia are, to some extent, really concerns about the exchange rate, with the high exchange rate leading to high wages expressed in foreign currency terms. A lower exchange rate would obviously make a difference to these comparisons.”


AUD/USD falls to July 2010 lows


The comments by the RBA deputy governor helped push AUD/USD to a four-year low, The pair is currently trading at USD0.8541, down 0.89 percent on the session after hitting lows at 0.8523.


AUD 2-year interest rate swaps are currently pricing at 2.7950 percent, down 0.18 percent after earlier highs at 2.8015.







Nov 25, 2014

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United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ) came in at 1.3%, above expectations (1.2%) in 3Q
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Nov 25, 2014
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USD/JPY gains momentum after US GDP
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - USD/JPY rose from 118.05 to 118.28, reaching the highest price since the Asian session, after the release of better-than-expected economic data in the US.
According to the new estimate, the US economy grew at a rate of 3.9% during the third quarter, that is higher than the previous estimate of 3.5% and above the expected 3.3%. Greenback gained momentum across the board after the report.
USD/JPY away from the lows
Before the economic numbers, the pair was hovering around 118.00, slightly lower for the day, still moving with a slightly bullish bias in the short term, making higher lows and higher highs for the third trading day in a row but holding below last Thursday peak, when it climbed to 118.97 (7-year high).
Currently trades at 118.20, approaching daily highs and moving away from the lows, supported by US GDP data, ahead of Wall Street opening.
Nov 25, 2014
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GBP/USD falls further after upbeat US GDP
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Pound is falling faster against the US Dollar as the pair is enjoying favorable environment for the greenback after a US GDP's revision upwards to 3.9% from the previously informed of 3.5%.
The GBP/USD is extending its decline from 1.5695 and after falling 40 pips it is now testing daily lows at 1.5650. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5656, down 0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5710 and low at 1.5649.
The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
GBP/USD levels
Below 1.5650, next supports are at 1.5630 and 1.5600. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5670, 1.5700 and 1.5715.
Nov 25, 2014
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AUD/NZD fall below 1.0900, 4-month low
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - The aussie accelerated the decline versus the kiwi and reached the lowest price since July after losing a key support level. AUD/NZD dropped below 1.0905 and accelerated to the downside. So far the pair bottomed at 1.0826 but remains under pressure, testing the lows.
The pair is having the worst performance in months, losing almost a hundred pips and is headed toward the seventh daily loss out of the last eight trading days.
AUD/NZD under 1.0900 - 1.0920
Yesterday the pair closed slightly below 1.0920 and today broke decisively the 1.0900 area, dropping below a long term support level; and extended the retreated after finding resistance around 1.1300 at the beginning of the month.
Nov 26, 2014
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United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.458M below forecasts (0.472M) in October
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Nov 26, 2014
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AUD/JPY hovering around 100.00
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - AUD/JPY dropped during the European session to 99.90, falling below 100.00 for the first time in two weeks, but then rebounded modestly. The recovery from the lows found resistance at 100.30.
AUD/JPY under pressure
As the yen recovers across the board after falling sharply last week, the aussie is the opposite and today, again, is the worst performer in the market, among the most traded currencies.
AUD/JPY is hovering around 100.00, falling for the third day in a row and trading more than 250 pips below the level it had at the beginning of the week.
Nov 26, 2014
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Gold trades steady in EUR terms
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices remain well supported in the EUR terms as investors are convinced that the European Central Bank (ECB) would expand its monetary stimulus to include sovereign bond purchases.
Gold in EUR terms or XAU/EUR traded largely unchanged at 957.54 levels, after having recovered from the low of 948.16 hit earlier today. Prices recovered after the ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the policy makers are ready to do more if the inflation and growth continues to decline in the Eurozone. He also said that he expects the bank’s balance sheet to expand to 2012 levels. Gold, known to have a direct relationship with a balance sheet size of the central bank, erased gains to trade on a flat note.
Meanwhile, the metal shrugged-off the strong German data, which showed the unemployment rate at a record low of 6.6% in November.
Gold (EUR) Technical Levels
The metal has an immediate resistance located at 966.66, above which gains could be extended to 973.62 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 952.80 and 948.16
Nov 27, 2014
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AUD/JPY finds resistance at 101.00
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - AUD/JPY rose further during the Asian session and reached at 101.04, the highest price in two days but failed to hold above 101.00 and pulled back.
The decline found support at 100.54, where an hourly uptrend line stands. A break lower could weaken the aussie and expose daily lows that lie at 100.30. Currently trades at 100.65, at the same level it closed yesterday.
AUD up after data
The aussie, supported by economic data from Australia (increase in new home sales and private capital expenditure) is among the best performers across the board, despite trimming gains during the last hours.
Nov 27, 2014
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Deutsche Bank exits physical metals trading
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Europe’s biggest investment bank decided to exit physical metals trading in face of declining revenues and the necessity to hold buffer capital as per new regulations.
Deutsche Bank did announce an exit from the physical trading of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, although the bank would continue to trade derivatives linked to the precious metals. The bank also announced an end to trading in credit-default swaps linked to individual companies due to stricter regulations.
Moreover, regulators are forcing banks to hold more capital to avoid bailouts funded by taxpayer money. Earlier this year, Barclays, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan Chase scaled back their commodity business.
JPMorgan Chase’s physical commodity unit was bought by Mercuria, a ten-year-old firm based in Switzerland that started out trading oil but now owns (or has joint ventures with) oil-exploration companies, oil-terminal and pipeline operators, coal and iron-ore mines and biofuel refineries.
Nov 27, 2014
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Eurozone unemployment holds at 11.5 percent
FXStreet (London) - Eurozone unemployment held at 11.5 percent in October, level with the September print, according to Eurostat.
The 28-member European Union unemployment rate was 10.0 percent in October 2014, also stable compared with September 2014 and down from 10.7 percent in October 2013,
Compared with September 2014, the number of persons unemployed increased by 42 000 in the European Union and by 60 000 in the Eurozone. Compared with October 2013, unemployment fell by 1.549 million in the EU and by 547 000 in the Eurozone.
Nov 28, 2014
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FTSE declines as Energy stocks fall
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The London’s FTSE index is being driven lower today by a fall in the Energy stocks after Crude Oil prices fell to fresh four-year lows.
The Ftse traded 0.65% lower at 9929.30 levels at the time of writing. The index breadth is negative with an advance-decline ratio of 45:53. The Oil and Gas index is down by 4.29%, while the Oil Equipments Services and Distributions index is down 5.28%. Among the index stocks, shares in multinational oil and gas company BG group fell 8.11%, followed by shares in Weir group, which declined 6.84%. Tullow Oil lost 5.41%, while BP’s share price and Royal Dutch Shell B.’s share price declined 3.5% each. Meanwhile, on the plus side are stocks like Vodafone Group PLC, Kingfisher, Easyjet and Rio Tinto.
Moreover, the shares in energy companies have taken a beating across the globe since Crude prices hit fresh four-year lows after the OPEC group decided to keep the production levels unchanged at 3 million barrels per day.
Ftse Technical Levels
The index has an immediate support located at 6641 levels, under which prices may fall to 6600 levels. On the flip side, a breach of resistance located at 6731 levels, shall open doors for a re-test of 6765 levels.
Nov 28, 2014
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Japan data was the headline driver in Asia – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Research Team, note that Japan seems to be the main headline driver in Asia this morning following a host of mixed data releases.
Key Quotes
β€œStarting with retail sales, the print came in at a disappointing -1.4% mom (vs. -0.5% expected), although this appears to be somewhat offset by a better industrial production reading (+0.2% mom vs. -0.6% mom expected) and slight drop in the jobless rate to +3.5% from +3.6% previously, matching the 17yr low seen in August and May. β€œ
β€œIn terms of inflation, CPI (ex food) slipped to +2.9% yoy, marking a third consecutive monthly decline whilst stripping out the effect of the sales tax showed a fairly subdued +0.9% core print.”
β€œIn fact, staying on Japan, 2y JGB’s dropped below zero for the first time ever this morning ahead of today’s auction. As we type, the notes are trading at -0.002% - matching only Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland and Switzerland with similar duration bonds trading with a negative yield.”
Nov 28, 2014
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United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) declined to Β£2.6B in October from previous Β£2.7B
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Dec 01, 2014
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UK manufacturing PMI climbs to four-month high in November
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index came-in at a four-month high of 53.5 in November, compared to October’s 53.2 and higher than the preliminary reading of 53.00.
The upturn in the manufacturing activity was supported by solid domestic order inflows, which offset subdues trend in new export orders. Meanwhile, Manufacturing employment increased for the nineteenth consecutive month in November, with the rate of job creation reaching four-month high.
Price pressures remained weak in November. The average input prices declined for the third straight month, while the average output prices rose marginally.
Dec 01, 2014
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RBI to keep rates unchanged, with rising risks of a surprise – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Research at TD Securities, expects the Reserve Bank of India’s Governer Rajan to keep the key rates unchanged and announce the achievement of the 8% CPI target tomorrow.
Key Quotes
β€œThe Reserve bank of India will announce their rate decision tomorrow and we expect Governor Rajan to keep the key rates on hold (repo at 8.00% and CRR at 4.00%). This view is in line with the almost unanimous consensus expectations, but we see increasing risks that a surprise cut may also occur.”
β€œThe reason for potential easing of policy rates is essentially related to the inflation dynamic, which has been a lot more benign than we had initially expected. This reflects in both a resumption to normal levels of precipitations in the latter months of the summer monsoon season, and the plunge in crude oil prices since July.”
β€œIn tomorrow’s announcement, rather than a surprise cut, we expect the RBI to communicate more comfort with the achievement of the short-term target of 8% for CPI. The target for January 2016 is 6%, which also seems attainable and which will eventually determine the decision to cut rates in 2015.”
β€œIf we are right, the decision to hold may give temporary respite to the INR, which has been weakening in line with the general trend in EM FX since July and is currently trading at 62.09 to the dollar, 2% above our Q4 forecast of 60.9.”
β€œRather than with outright longs to the USD, we continue to express our positive view on INR through long INR/KRW in 1m NDFs (target at 19.00), and our oil basket trade (long THB, INR, PHP, TRYβ€”short COP, MXN, BRL) that has gained approx. 2% in spot since November 27.”
Dec 01, 2014
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Nikkei hits seven-year high
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Japanese stocks advanced today on a surprisingly strong capital spending report and weak Yen.
The Nikkei finished higher0.75% higher at 17,590.10, its highest closing level since July 26, 2007. The stocks opened strong today after the Japanese finance ministry said nonfinancial companies’ combined capital expenditures in the quarter rose 5.5% year-on-year, compared to the forecast of 1.6%. Meanwhile, weakness in the Yen also supported prices. For a brief moment the USD/JPY pair rose above 119.00 levels today.
Among stocks, Fanuc Corp rose 1.9% and Keyence Corp rose 2.3%. Falling Crude prices pushed ANA Holdings Inc to gain 5.3%, while Japan Airlines Co climbed 7.2%. Other gainers included tire maker Bridgestone Corp and Yokohama Rubber Co. Meanwhile, on the minus side was Sumitomo Metal Mining Co, which fell 1.8% tracking the fall in Gold prices.
Nikkei Technical Levels
The index has a strong resistance located at 17,875 (May 2007 close), above which gains could be extended to 18,000 levels. On the flip side, immediate support is seen at 17,563 (Apr 2006 high), and 17,488 (Oct 2007 high).
Dec 01, 2014
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EUR/GBP dips to lows at 0.7930
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The good tone from the sterling is weighing on EUR/GBP at the beginning of the week, dragging it to the area of 0.7930.
EUR/GBP softer post-UK data
The bid sentiment around the pound is offsetting the also positive mood in the EUR, sending the cross lower and partially eroding last Friday’s upside to the upper-0.7900s. Good results from the UK docket, with Consumer Credit and manufacturing PMI surpassing estimates are giving extra oxygen to the GBP, already bolstered by a risk-on environment. In light of the upcoming BoE and ECB meetings, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley commented, β€œIf QE is announced by the ECB in the coming months we expect that the EUR will remain under pressure and we expect a low grind lower in the value of EUR/GBP towards the 0.76 level on a 12 mth view”.
EUR/GBP levels to watch
At the moment the cross is losing 0.29% at 0.7932 with the next support at 0.7900 (psychological level) ahead of 0.7890 (55-d MA). On the upside, a break above 0.7976 (high Dec.1) would open the door to 0.8002 (high Nov.21).
Dec 01, 2014
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Policy divergences, decline in commodity prices, and China’s slowdown continue to drive the markets – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Brown Brothers Harriman have identified three forces that are shaping the investment climate: the economic and monetary divergence that favors the US, the decline in commodity prices, and a slowing of China, which have strengthened and are reinforcing each other.
Key Quotes
β€œThroughout the last few months, we have identified three forces that are shaping the investment climate: the economic and monetary divergence that favors the US, the decline in commodity prices, and a slowing of China. These forces remain very much intact, and if anything, have strengthened and reinforcing each other. β€œ
β€œOver the weekend, the PBOC announced it is ready to implement guarantees on deposits (as much as RMB 500,000 or about $81,500). This pushes the agenda towards interest rate liberalization.”
β€œThe US dollar is mostly softer as North American participants prepare to return from what was a long weekend for many. The greenback had initially moved higher, hitting Β₯119.15, while the euro slipped to $1.2420. The proximate cause was the continued fall in oil prices and news that Moody's cut Japan's credit rating to A1 from Aa3.”
β€œHowever, the dollar shed its gains in the European morning, as falling equity markets sent the dollar to almost JPY118 and the euro recovered to almost $1.2480.”
β€œThere was little sustained reaction to the EU PMI, which fell to 50.1 from the 50.4 flash reading. Germany's PMI was the lowest since June 2013, and the second sub-50 reading in the past three months.”
β€œIn the EM space, RUB is again making new lows, falling 4.5% against the basket. Other oil exporters have also been hit heavily, notably Malaysia and Colombia.”
β€œBrent futures fell below $68.0 per barrel, but have since recovered back to just under $70.0.”
Dec 01, 2014
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AUD/NZD re-takes 1.08 handle
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Aussie rose against the Kiwi today after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that interest rates would stay at record lows for a considerable period of time.
The AUD/NZD pair traded 0.17% higher at 1.0816 at the time of writing. The pair hit a low of 1.0772 levels before rising above the 1.08 levels. Moreover, the pair has declined since last week as the markets priced-in the RBA’s decision to hold interest rates at record lows. The Aussie also gained as building approvals rose 11.4% in October, exceeding expectations for an increase of 5.2%. Other data showed Australia’s current account deficit narrowed to AUD 12.5 billion in the third quarter.
AUD/NZD Technical Levels
The pair has an immediate resistance located at 1.0837 (5-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 1.0848. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1.08 and 1.0772 levels.
Dec 02, 2014
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Lower energy prices good news for the global economy says IMF chief – Investec
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Investec Research Team cites IMF Chief Christine Lagarde’s comments that the lower energy prices will help boost economies in the US and across much of the globe.
Key Quotes
β€œAfter London trade, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Christine Lagarde said that falling oil prices will help boost economies in the US and across much of the globe, a net positive for a world struggling with slowing growth. "It is good news for the global economy," Ms. Lagarde said at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council annual meeting.”
β€œFor the US, lower energy prices will help accelerate economic growth to a 3.5% pace next year, Ms. Lagarde said, up from an October forecast of 3.1%.”
β€œOil prices tumbled to multiyear lows last week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to maintain its production quotas, rather than lowering its output target.”
β€œLower oil prices are good for most consumers, who pay less for gasoline, although it could cause a short term drop in inflation before the benefits are felt and could squeeze energy companies and the economies of some major producers like Russia, Canada and Norway.”
Dec 02, 2014
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Rouble continues to remain soft – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Research Team note that the recent slump in Oil has continued to weigh on the Ruble, as it stands at a 30% decline since September-end.
Key Quotes
β€œBriefly back to the Oil theme, the effect of the recent slump continues to have a negative impact on the Russian Rouble. The currency was down as much as 6.6% yesterday versus the dollar before paring back some of those intra-day losses to close around 4.5% lower on the day (at 51.65). The currency has now declined 30% since the end of September.”
β€œRussia’s 5yr CDS widened a further 26bps yesterday to 344bps whilst the 10y government bond yield finished 15bps higher at 10.76%. The moves also come on the back of an announcement by the Finance Minister Siluanov last week that capital flight may reach $130bn in 2014 - the most since 2009.”
Dec 02, 2014
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GBP/USD hits daily highs after UK services PMI
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - GBP/USD received a boost from better-than-expected UK services PMI and reached fresh daily highs, although it lacked follow-through.
UK Services PMI rose to 58.6 in November from 56.2 and beating expectations of 58.5. The numbers helped the pound, and sent GBP/USD to a high of 1.5667 before pulling back to pre-data levels. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.5650, still up 0.1% on the day.
The pair had fallen to the 1.5620 area, but it managed to recover some ground, underpinned by EUR/GBP selling on the back of disappointing European PMIs.
GBP/USD technical levels
As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.5667 (daily high), 1.5700 (psychological level) and 1.5742 (Dec 2 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.5618 (daily low) and 1.5600 (psychological level) ahead of 1.5584 (2014 low Dec 1).
Dec 03, 2014
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GBP/USD steady midrange – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that GBP/USD trades steadily today due to the better than expected UK Services PMI, avoiding the USD strength for the time being.
Key Quotes
β€œThe GBP/USD trades unchanged on the day, avoiding dollar strength thanks to a better than expected UK Services PMI, showing Britain's services sector expanded faster in November. The pair hovers around the 1.5650 level, with little directional strength according to technical readings, with the pair trading halfway of the daily range.”
β€œThe 4 hours chart shows 20 SMA offering intraday resistance around the 1.5670 level, while indicators stand flat around their midlines, giving no clues on upcoming direction.”
β€œThe daily low was so far set at 1.5618, and downward acceleration below it to see the pair gaining bearish strength towards 1.5584 the year low set past week. Above mentioned resistance, next one comes at the 1.5720/40 area, probable top for the day if reached.”
Dec 03, 2014
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AUD tumbling – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Research at Societe Generale, sees AUD/USD likely to test the bottom of the two year declining channel at 0.8330/35 levels, which would add further pressure on the pair.
Key Quotes
β€œAustralia saw real GDP growth slow to 0.3pct q/q, much lower than expected and taking annual growth to 2.7pct. There were downward revisions to back data and as economists ponder whether the outlook is bleak enough to prompt another rate cut in February, the currency market is simply selling the currency. The RBA would prefer a weaker currency than lower rates anyway. AUD/USD is now likely to test the bottom of a two-year declining channel at 0.8330/35. A break of this level would be a powerful bearish signal.”
Dec 03, 2014
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Autumn Statement: Osborne announces OBR downgrade of UK growth forecasts



FXStreet (London) - Giving his Autumn Statement, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne has announced that the Office for Budgetary Responsibility has downgraded its forecasts, citing the problems facing the Eurozone and Japan.


The OBR forecasts the UK to grow 2.4 percent next year and 2.2 percent in 2016. It forecasts inflation at 1.2 percent in 2015 and 1.7 percent in 2016.


The 2015-16 budget deficit is forecasted at GBP75.9 with the UK expected to run a budget surplus in 2018-2019.






Dec 03, 2014

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Does the current account deficit matter for GBP? – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch FX strategists, GBP is showing obverse behaviour as it trends higher while the increasing current account deficit in the UK should lead to a soft impact on the currency.
Key Quotes
β€œOver the medium-term, a large and deteriorating external trade position is ultimately negative for a currency and leaves it vulnerable during periods of heightened volatility. The UK continues to run a dual deficit with large public sector deficits alongside external imbalances. Yet, despite this, GBP is some 20% higher in TWI terms from its post-GFC lows.”
β€œAdmittedly, the imbalances that the UK faces are not unique; indeed, the budget deficit has been nearly halved as a % of GDP. But the resilience of GBP to the deterioration of the current account has been one of the more curious aspects of GBP performance in recent years.”
β€œThe Bank of England1 believes that the cyclical downturn in the euro area will keep FDI returns weak over the coming years but believes that the UK's net international investment position (NIIP) is far healthier than official data would suggest if the stock of FDI assets is marked to market. Under its scenario, the UK's NIIP would have been circa +30% of GDP in 2013 versus broadly balanced according to official estimates. The BoE concludes that valuation effects should keep NIIP broadly stable in future against the backdrop of the current account deficit.”
β€œFor GBP, if the Bank of England is correct on its revised NIIP measure, this should come as some relief and alleviate concerns that the persistence of large current account deficits presents a clear and present danger for the pound.”
Dec 05, 2014
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EUR/USD testing fresh lows post-Payrolls
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The offered tone is now picking up pace around the single currency, sending EUR/USD to fresh intraday lows below the 1.2300 handle.
EUR/USD hurt by upbeat Non farm Payrolls
The pair has seen its demand depressed further after the US economy added 321K jobs during November, surpassing estimates at 232K and up from October’s 243K (revised from 214K). More data showed the jobless rate stayed put at 5.8%, matching previous surveys. Still in the US economy, the trade deficit came in at $43.40 billion during October vs. 43.6 billion in the previous month. Next of note will be Factory Orders (0.1% exp. in October), the speech by Fed’s S.Fischer and the Consumer Credit Change ($16.48 billion exp.)
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is retreating 0.03% at 1.2377 with the next support at 1.2280 (2014 low Dec.4) ahead of 1.2256 (low Aug.16 2012) and finally 1.2242 (low Aug.10 2012). On the upside, a breakout of 1.2426 (10-d MA) would expose 1.2453 (21-d MA) and then 1.2476 (high Dec.2).
Dec 05, 2014
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Canada Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (6.6%) in November
Read more in Forex News
Dec 05, 2014
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Non-farm payrolls: up 321k, US labour markets surge, job gains widespread.
FXStreet (London) - Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a huge jump in US job numbers.
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent.
Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.
The increase compares with an average monthly gain of 224,000 over the prior 12 months.
Today’s print marks the tenth straight month of 200k+ gains, the longest run since 1995.
Dec 05, 2014
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US equities likely to applaud the labor market strength
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The activity in the US index futures indicates the Wall Street is likely to open on a positive note after the monthly Non-farm payrolls data printed way higher than the market expectation.
At the time of writing, the DJIA futures are trading 0.15% higher, while the S&P futures are up 0.02%. The NASDAQ futures have gained 0.11%, while the S&P VIX futures have weakened by 1.79%.
The labor department data released earlier today showed the economy added whooping 321K jobs in November, beating market expectations of 230K additions. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%. Post open, the Commerce Department is also due to release a report on factory orders in the month of October. However, the report is not likely to attract much attention amid the focus on the jobs data.
It will be interesting to see how the stock markets react throughout the day today, since the stellar jobs data is likely to push up expectations of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the US, something which stock markets usually do not like.
Dec 05, 2014
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WTI Crude at day’s low
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude oil prices in the US remain weak despite a strong monthly jobs report in the US as sentiment soured after Saudi Arabia offered biggest discount on record to its oil customers across Asia.
WTI Crude for January delivery traded 1.39% lower at USD 65.85/barrel at the time of writing. Moreover, Crude prices hardly reacted to a stellar jobs report in the US as markets priced-in a sort of double whammy from the Saudis. Moreover, markets which were recovering from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) group’s decision to hold production levels unchanged, were caught off-guard after the Saudis state run oil company decided to extend its discount for Arab Light sales to Asia next month to USD 2/barrel below a regional benchmark.
Meanwhile, the inventory data released in the US yesterday also hurt prices. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday showed oil production expanded to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983.
WTI Crude Technical Levels
Crude has an immediate support located at 65.41, under which prices can fall to 64.31 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 66.71 and 67.77 levels.
Dec 05, 2014
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US Session recap: and the title? "Nonfarm Payrolls"!
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD has been underpinned by the release of the Nonfarm payrolls data in the US session. What was needed was an extraordinary figure for the market to react in any great way to the release and that is exactly what we got.
The Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 321K, which puts the twelve-month average now up to 278K. This is significant and the highest yet in an increasing trend over the past few years along the US's recovery. The next FOMC meeting is on December the 17th which is going to set the tone for the beginning of 2015, but until then, the markets will make their own minds up and this jobs report has shifted the greenback into a much higher gear. On the week, The Yen, AUD and NZD were the biggest losers to the dollar.
EUR/USD made a low of 1.2271, supported to some extent by EUR/JPY demand at the end of the week as it broke into new highs, but overall, the EUR was a fade on attempts against the trend of a stronger dollar, such as when factory orders were released, but was wearing losses of over a cent move on the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls data.
USD/JPY was relentless and marked out higher grounds into the 121 handle with a high of 121.69 from a low of 119.71, showing the market its moves again, and boy can it move when it gets going! Again, the US factory orders were the only dent in its bonnet on a strong performance and brings in the 2007 highs at 123.95 into the picture.
USD/CAD leaped up towards 1.1480 making a high of 1.1476 before supply drove the pair lower and into a drift from 1.1415 to 1.1445. WTI was sliding on lower US factory orders while Poloz sees lower oil prices a threat to growth, revising his forecasting by +0.8% and explaining that it will be a dent of 0.33% in growth for 2015.
GBP/USD was breaking lower, marking out territory below the November bottom, and brings us fresh lows to work from at 1.5569.
Key events
US October factory orders down vs expectations
US Non farm payrolls smashing expectations by 91k
US unemployment rate in line with expectations
Canadian November employment disappointing
Dec 06, 2014
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Chile Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM): 0% (November) vs previous 1%
Read more in Forex News
Dec 06, 2014
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Should Greece get the final bailout trance? – Tip Tv



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Tip Tv Team and Tom Elliot, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, discuss about the Eurogroup’s meeting involving Greece’s bailout problem.


Key Quotes


β€œEurogroup's meeting today on whether Greece should get the final tranche of its bailout package? If they demand an extension, which is likely, this could put into doubt gvt's ability to stop anti-austerity Syriza wining a February election and if they do we are back to talk of Greece leaving the euro.”







Dec 08, 2014

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NZD/USD moves into positive territory
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Kiwi has recovered losses to trade in green against the Greenback, tracking a decline in the US treasury yields and a rebound in the EUR and GBP.
The NZD/USD pair now trades 0.19% higher at 0.7677, after having recovered from the low of 0.7609 levels. Moreover, the US dollar is witnessing a correction against most of its G-10 peers as a bout of risk-aversion in the Asian markets pushed the US 10-y r treasury yields lower to 2.25%.
The Kiwi had also come under pressure earlier today after the electronic retail card spending in November declined 0.1% month-on-month, against the expected gain of 0.2%.
NZD/USD Technical Levels
The pair has an immediate resistance located at 0.7685, above which gains could be extended to 0.7716 (5-DMA). Meanwhile, support is seen at 0.7660 (Nov 7 low) and 0.7607.
Dec 09, 2014
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GBP/USD steadies ahead of UK Factory numbers
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The cables trades with moderate gains during the European morning, as traders eye UK manufacturing and industrial activity data to be released shortly.
Currently, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.5672 levels, 0.12% higher from the previous session’s close of 1.5653. The pair continues to trade cautiously as market awaits fresh industrial and manufacturing output data from the UK, which may show deceleration in the factory growth in October.
The UK Office for National Statistics is expected to report industrial output rose 0.2% in October following a 0.6% increase in September. Manufacturing output is estimated to have fallen to growth of 0.2% in October from 0.4% measured a month before.
GBP/USD Levels to consider
The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5697 (Dec 5 High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.5719 (Dec 3 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5651 (10-day SMA), below which it could extend losses to 1.5618 (50-day SMA) levels.
Dec 09, 2014
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LME Inventory Update



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The daily warehouse stocks data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a rise in the inventory levels of Copper and Zinc. Meanwhile, the inventory levels of Nickel, Aluminium and Lead declined.


Copper stocks rose by 950 tonnes today, while Aluminium inventory and Lead inventory decreased by 10100 tonnes and 2200 tonnes respectively. Nickel stocks declined by 162 tonnes, while that of Zinc increased 3200 tonnes.








Dec 09, 2014

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GBP/JPY trims losses
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - The pound is trading slightly lower against the yen on Wednesday, falling for the second day in a row, but far from the lows.
GBP/JPY bottomed earlier at 186.14 but then bounced to the upside and recently reached 187.30. Currently trades at 187.05/10, 0.15% below today’s opening price.
Trade balance data from the United Kingdom had no impact on the pound. The deficit fell in October to the lowest level in seven months, at Β£2bn, below the Β£2.8bn in September.
GBP/JPY steady
Price action across the board remains mostly calm following sharp movements yesterday, when GBP/JPY dropped from 189.20 to 185.16; today the price range so far has been of 160 pips.
Dec 10, 2014
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EUR/NOK climbs to fresh 5-year high
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - EUR/NOK has pushed to fresh 5-year highs Wednesday despite in line with expectations Norwegian inflation data, as oil prices remain as the main driver for the krone.
Norges Bank decision tomorrow
Norway's CPI came exactly in line with expectations of +1.9% the headline and +2.4% the core ahead of the Norges Bank decision tomorrow (target 2.5%). The central bank is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% despite recent oil prices slump.
However, according to Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank, commented that in view of the risks to growth the chances that the Norges Bank will set the scene for further rate cuts has grown. β€œThe continuation of sluggish growth in the Eurozone combined, the increased pressure on the oil price combined with the moderation in core inflation suggests scope for a reduction in the 1.5% policy rate potentially as soon as the March Norges Bank meeting”, said the analyst.
EUR/NOK climbed to a 5-year high of 8.9354 and it is currently trading around 8.9000, recording a 0.95% gain on the day.
Dec 10, 2014
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EUR trading flat – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is flat with no fundamental data and ignoring ECB’s Hansson’s comments that they will turn to corporate bonds before sovereign.
Key Quotes
β€œEUR is flat to yesterday’s close, after trading in a tight 37‐point range during the Asian and European sessions. Yesterday’s profit taking was important and has forced some of the move vulnerable shorts out of the market; however the failure to close above last Friday’s open of 1.2379 or high of 1.2393 puts important emphasis on today’s close. Should EUR fail again to close above these levels it would be technically bearish; should it break above it would open up a test to 1.2470.”
β€œThere was no data released today. The ECB’s Hansson suggested that corporate bond buying should be pursued before sovereigns and that in principle the ECB could look to equities; but that it is too early to judge if the central bank will commit to action in January.”
β€œEURUSD short‐term technicals: mixedβ€”warning of a short‐period of stability. Support lies at the recent low of 1.2247, a break below here would open up a test to 1.2200; while resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of 1.2448. A close above 1.2379 today would open up a nearterm test to yesterday’s high followed by 1.2500.”
Dec 10, 2014
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Counting on the balance sheet – BNP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the ECB has signaled that it intends to bring its balance sheet back to the level prevailing in early 2012.
Key Quotes:
β€œThe balance sheet expansion is an instrument that has been used by central banks to overcome the Zero Lower Bound of policy rates and to signal an easier monetary policy stance. It also wants to see inflation back to target β€œwithout delay” and β€œas fast as possible”, to quote President Draghi, The rise in the base money will first depend on the success of the upcoming targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)”.
β€œWe expect the next operation, to be conducted on December the 11th, to encounter strong demand, at the upper range of estimates. However, it is likely that the measures adopted so far (TLTROs, ABS and Covered Bond purchase programs), will not be enough to fully achieve the ECB’s balance sheet objective”.
β€œUnder these circumstances the ECB would be forced to enlarge the list of assets it currently purchases”.
Dec 10, 2014
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AUD/JPY longs squeezed out in last push for September highs
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/JPY is trading at 98.50, down -0.74% on the day, having posted a daily high at 99.49 and low at 98.36.
AUD/JPY has extended losses on a continuation of the downtrend and unwinding in the carry, pushing the hourly RSI towards oversold territory. Risk sentiment is fading and concerns for global growth risks are mounting with investors looking to the safe havens, such as the yen, and longs are being squeezed out of positions as the Yen continues to strengthen.
We have moved down to September highs and rapidly where there may be strong support. However a break of these levels opens up the downside wide open to the psychological 98.00 level.
Fundamentally, the FOMC may play a big roll next week in market developments and should the dollar continue to unwind then this may balance out the scales of the cross to some extent with a buoyed Aussie dollar as a result. However, the snap election results are up this weekend ad this prove unfavourable to Abe and support further supply in USD/JPY.
Dec 10, 2014
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It’s nearly the end of the year yet the accuracy of OctaFX’s analysis service never goes down or for a rest. I would have been a failure if it was not because of following your analysis, I can trade without even 1% tension because I know that there is a great service behind me to support in any conditions, so really all I can say is really proud to be dealing with such a caring and reliable broker in the whole Forex industry!

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