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USD/JPY remains bullish for 124.59 – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT, Technical Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, maintains the bullish outlook on USD/JPY, anticipating a move higher towards 124.59.
Key Quotes
“Evidence says that the bull trend of the past 4+ months is drawing to a conclusion and the long-term uptrend is set to resume for 124.59, ahead of 128.45.”
“Below 118.33 invalidates this view and points to continued range-trading, while those awaiting additional price confirmation need a break of 120.86 (the Apr-13 high)”
May 14,2015
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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change below forecasts (116B) in May 8: Actual (111B)
Read more in Forex News
May 14,2015
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RBA to trim rates by 25bp to a new record low of 1.75% in November - Nomura
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its official cash rate to a new record low in November this year, forecasts Andrew Ticehurst, economist at Nomura.
Key Quotes:
"As we turn our attention to the second half of the year and consider recent economic and market developments, both in Australia and abroad, we now believe it is appropriate to add a rate cut to our H2 cash rate profile,"
"The next real window for an RBA cut is likely August, and we currently assign a 40% to 50% probability to a move at this time,"
"We forecast a 25bp easing in November, which would take the Australian cash rate to a fresh record low of 1.75%."
"Moreover, given concerns about the strength of the Australian property market and the build up of household debt, a monetary loosing implies by the exchange rate would have been particularly welcome to the RBA which may otherwise have had to cut rates more aggressively."
May 15,2015
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US empire statement manufacturing survey expected to be strong – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the key data releases ahead in the US, expecting the May Empire State Manufacturing Survey to print a stronger number, Industrial production to remain flat, and Consumer confidence to have stabilized in May.
Key Quotes
“Today the May Empire State Manufacturing survey will be reported. April's -1.2 reading was the weakest since December. New orders showed the biggest decline since January 2013. Employment deteriorated, while inventories increased. A stronger report is expected for May.”
“Separately, April industrial production is expected to be flat after a 0.6% decline in March. Industrial output has fallen in three of the past four months. This is partly a function of the energy sector and utilities. Manufacturing itself snapped a three-month steak of no gains with a 0.1% rise in March. A 0.2% gain is expected in April.”
“University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence will also be reported. Sentiment remained at elevated levels in April and is expected to have stabilized in May.”
“The inflation expectations may draw some interested after softening in April. The Fed has recently put more emphasis on the survey results than the market-based measures of inflation expectations.”
May 15,2015
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Risky assets increasingly sensitive to Fed rate expectations – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at BofA-Merrill Lynch, explain that correlations imply that stock and credit markets tend to underperform when market expectations for a Fed rate hike turns hawkish, and vice versa.
Key Quotes
“Risky assets have become highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations recently. Although stock and bond returns are normally negatively correlated, the 3m correlation between daily returns on S&P and 2y UST note has turned positive and has reached levels last seen during the "taper tantrum" of 2013, and during the start and end of the previous hiking cycle in mid-2004 and mid-2006, respectively. The correlation between high-yield CDX spreads and 2y UST rate has also increased recently.”
“The sign of the correlations imply stock and credit markets tend to underperform when the market expects a more hawkish Fed, and vice versa.”
“The current elevated stock-bond returns correlation at about +40% was previously seen only when investors expected an earlier Fed turning point. For example, the correlation reached today's level in 2004 only after the Fed started hiking in June 2004. Similarly, the market pulled the expected timing of Fed hikes earlier by about eight months during the taper tantrum of 2013. This is not the case this time.”
“If anything, the OIS market has pushed the perceived timing of Fed hikes further in time to late 2015 or early 2016 (depending on assumptions about the level of the effective fed funds rate after the first hike). This suggests the underlying sensitivity of risky assets to Fed policy is greater than it has been historically, and it may increase to unprecedented highs if the Fed signals hikes this year.”
May 15,2015
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US Industrial production declines for fifth consecutive month in April
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed the US industrial production in April fell for the fifth straight month.
Output adjusted for season variations contracted 0.3% in April, beating the forecast of a 0.1% rise. The previous month’s figure stands unrevised at -0.6%. Manufacturing output was flat, with manufacturing ex-Auto falling 0.1%. Mining and utility output also declined last month. Capacity utilization dipped to 78.2% from 78.6% in March, indicating low cost pressure on goods prices.
May 15,2015
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Australian rates might fall to 1.5% - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Dales, Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist, notes that the Australian budget lends support to the view that RBA might cut rates further to 1.5%.
Key Quotes
“The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasurer appear to be playing tennis with the economy. RBA Governor Stevens has already cut interest rates to 2.0% and hinted that he would like fiscal policy to provide more help. In last week’s Budget, Treasurer Hockey ignored this plea and left the economy facing a large fiscal squeeze. The ball is now back in the RBA’s court. Although we don’t expect any immediate action, the Budget lends some support to our view that rates may yet fall to 1.5%.”
“The minutes of the RBA’s May policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday, are unlikely to hint that further interest rate cuts are in the pipeline. That said, it wasn’t until the month after it cut rates in February that the Bank suggested that another cut might be needed. As such, we would warn against reading too much into what might appear to be a relatively hawkish release.”
May 15,2015
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USD/CAD in highs near 1.2070
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is appreciating further on Friday vs. its Canadian counterpart, taking USD/CAD to session tops near 1.2070.
USD/CAD stronger despite US data
The pair reacted positively in spite of both US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization have missed estimates during April, contracting 0.3% inter-month and falling to 78.2%, respectively.
On the Canadian side, Manufacturing Shipments surprised to the upside expanding at a monthly pace of 2.9%, largely reverting February’s 1.7% contraction and surpassing the 0.1% gain forecasted.
USD/CAD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is gaining 0.61% at 1.2056 with the next hurdle at 1.2100 (psychological level) ahead of 1.2107 (high May 12) and then 1.2200 (psychological level). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1920 (low May 14) would open the door to 1.1900 (psychological level) and then 1.1836 (low Jan.12).
May 15,2015
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German ZEW index drops in May, but economy outlook still positive – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Carsten Brzeski of ING, reviews the German ZEW index data release and further comments on the economic outlook, maintaining a positive stance on German growth.
Key Quotes
“Today’s ZEW index shows that German investors have lost parts of their earlier optimism. In May, the headline index dropped for the second straight month to 41.9, from 53.3 in April. This was the strongest monthly drop since August last year. At the same time, the current assessment component dropped for the first time since October last year and stands now at 65.7, from 70.2 in April. Despite today’s drop, both components remain far above their historical averages.”
“In our view, there are still very few arguments in favour of changing our positive take on the German economy. In fact, even if the external tailwinds have subsided somewhat, they are still there. Just to put latest developments into perspective: compared with their average value of the last 12 months, bond yields are currently still some 20bp lower, the euro some 10% weaker and oil prices almost 30% cheaper. Still sufficient to give the economy a cool breezy boost.”
“Moreover, domestic fundamentals remain sound and particularly consumption should support growth in the coming months.”
May 19,2015
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US housing starts and building permits data preview – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the US data releases today – US housing starts and building permits, noting that consensus expects both to stage a recovery.
Key Quotes
“The North American session features April housing starts and permits. This sector had been undermined by the weather, especially in the February. A small recovery was seen in March, and a stronger recovery is expected in April.”
“Permits, a leading indicator, have held up better. The Q1 monthly average was 1068. The Q4 14 monthly average was 1070. The consensus expects April permits to have risen to 1064.”
“That said, the economic bounce back in Q2 has thus far not been very impressive, and not on par with last year’s recovery after the Q1 contraction.”
May 19,2015
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USD Index set to resume its bull trend – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT, Technical Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, views that USD Index looks likely to resume its bull trend towards 106.00.
Key Quotes
“The US $ Index looks to be in the final stages of its multi-month correction. Into 92.43, we look for basing and a resumption of its long-term uptrend toward 106.00. Bulls need a break of 95.51 to say that the correction is done and the bull trend has resumed.”
May 19,2015
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USD/CAD needs to clear 1.22/1.2350 for a visit to 1.25 – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - USD/CAD needs to overcome the 1.22/1.2350 band in order to extend the upside towards 1.25 initially, according to analysts at JP Morgan.
Key Quotes
“For the short term setup, the recent breakdown below the critical 1.2350 support zone and range lows from January March maintains the current downside risks in line with the broad USD corrective phase”.
“Moreover, the follow through below the 1.1988/33 zone (38.2% retracement from 2014) raises the risk that a new consolidation is forming below the March peak”.
“In turn, the focus has shifted to the critical 1.18/1.17 zone. This area includes the 50% retracement and uptrendline from the 2014 lows, as well as the 200-day moving average”.
“Given the current oversold setup and potential bullish momentum divergences, this area is a likely area for a retracement”.
“Note that the 1.22/1.2350 levels will now define whether a more sustained retrenchment to this corrective phase can develop. Above would target the 1.2500 area (76.4% retrenchment) which should determine whether the pair can retest the March peak”.
May 20,2015
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Combination of factors leads to another bad day in crude markets – Malcolm Graham-Wood
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood comments on oil market performance and highlights the key factors behind yesterday's dismal performance.
Key Quotes
“Another bad day in the crude markets yesterday as a combination of continued dollar strength, absorption of Saudi export numbers and profit taking in WTI as the June contract expired. Indeed volumes of the next month July contract were noticeably higher than usual as traders saw more than usual rolling over of positions, not surprising considering the massive amount of open long positions at the moment.”
“Upward pressures at the moment might come from the better than expected GDP figures from Japan at 2.4%, a possible strike in the UK North Sea as the GMB and Unite unions protest about new working conditions and inventory reports from the US ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend.”
“The inventory figures are beginning to help out a bit, last night the API numbers showed another draw, this time of 5.2m barrels against a consensus of only 1m which shows that the analysts aren’t getting any better…Lets see how the EIA numbers look tonight.”
May 20,2015
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GBP/USD forming a bearish reversal – EW-Forecast
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast, uses Elliott wave analysis to give the technical outlook for GBP/USD.
Key Quotes
“On GBPUSD we are looking A-B-C rally from April lows; a zigzag pattern that has a 5-3-5 structure which now appears complete after a sharp turn down in the last 48 hours from 1.5818 which seems to be an impulse in progress down in wave 1/A.”
“As such, we see much lower levels ahead as pair should make minimum three waves down but ideally market will make a new big bearish impulse, back to April lows.”
May 20,2015
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GBP/USD rebounds to 1.5550
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Fresh bids took control of the GBP/USD pair as it broke above 1.5520-1.5530 levels, pushing it to a fresh daily high of 1.5562 in the early US session.
USD being sold ahead of Fed minutes
The US dollar is being sold in anticipation of dovish Fed minutes. The markets expect policymakers to hint at at a possible delay in the rate hike due to weakness in the economy. The growing dovish expectations are evident from the drop in the US treasury yields. The 10-year yield currently trades 1.4 basis points lower at 2.248%, resulting into USD weakness.
The pair currently trades at 1.555, with eyes set on the 38.2% Fib retracement of 1.7190-1.4564 located at 1.5568.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1.5568, above which the pair could rise to 1.5637 (10-DMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.5517 could send the pair lower to 1.5420 (200-DMA).
May 20,2015
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AUD/USD aims to the low-0.70s by year-end – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Divergent monetary policies from the RBA and the Fed could relegate the pair to test the low-0.70 by the end of the current year, noted analysts at JP Morgan.
Key Quotes
“Movements in the real policy rate spread between Australia and the US have been an important driver of AUD/USD moves over the last decade”.
“50bp of tightening from the Fed in 2015, combined with iron ore prices moving back down from +US60/tn to around US$50/tn is consistent with AUD/USD in the low 70s by year-end”.
“However, on the rates side, with the move being US-driven, our view of a lower AUD/USD relies on the US economy’s 1Q stumble proving temporary”.
May 20,2015
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US initial jobless claims rise more than expected, 4-week avg at 15-year low
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the first time applications for unemployment benefits rose to 274K, bearing the estimate of 271K in the last week, although the four-week average continued to remain at a 15-year low.
The initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 274,000 in the week ended May 16. The four-week average of claims, which provides a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, decreased to 266,250, lowest since April 15, 2000, in the period ended May 16 from 271,750.
Meanwhile, the continuing claims decreased by 12,000 to 2.21 million in the week ended May 9, the lowest level since November 2000.
May 21,2015
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EUR/JPY sold at 135.30; back to 134.60
FXStreet (Cocoa) - The Euro is currently falling against the Japanese Yen and after losing 70 pips from 135.30 in the American morning, the EUR/JPY is now testing 134.60 area. Euro is under pressure amid mixed European data and strong USD.
Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 134.68, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 135.38 and low at 134.22. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.
EUR/JPY levels
If the Euro extends declines beyond 134.60 against the Yen, it will find supports at 134.20, 134.00 and 133.50. To the upside, resistances are at 135.00, 135.30 and 135.70.
May 21,2015
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EUR/GBP breaches 0.7100
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/GBP has sharply reverted the initial positive tone and is now re-visiting multi-week lows in sub-0.7100 levels.
EUR/GBP in 3-month lows
The solid pace of the pound is dragging the European cross below the 0.7100 handle, levels last seen in mid-March. The sterling is gathering further traction in response to the very auspicious results from UK retail sales during the last month, advancing beyond expectations.
In addition MPC M.Weale said that declining oil prices could have a negative impact on consumer prices while they could help lifting economic growth. In any case, he added that the effects should be gone in a couple of years.
EUR/GBP key levels
The cross is now losing 0.62% at 0.7098 with the immediate support at 0.7091 (low May 21) ahead of 0.7036 (low Mar.12) and then 0.7015 (2015 low Mar.11). On the flip side, the initial up barrier lines up at 0.7169 (high May 21) ahead of 0.7196 (10-d MA) and finally 0.7232 (high May 19).
May 21,2015
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GBP/USD: technicals providing an early warning sign – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that GBP/USD trades weak post comments from BoE MPC member Shafik, while the turn in MACD provides an early warning sign for traders.
Key Quotes
“GBP is weak, underperforming ahead of the NA session in response to comments from BoE MPC member Shafik. The comments reiterated a neutral tone of patience, highlighting expectations of a gradual pace of hikes while also pushing back on expectations of balance sheet adjustment in the absence of a ‘materially higher’ policy rate.”
“GBPUSD short-term technicals: bullish-neutral—momentum indicators have softened with the turn in the MACD providing an early warning sign. Resistance over the past two sessions has been observed around 1.5700 with limited movement above the 9 day MA (1.5656).”
May 22,2015
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US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team previews the key data releases in the US in the next week.
Key Quotes
“We expect US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower over the coming week, due primarily to exports and inventories.”
“We expect the underlying upward trend in the US housing market to continue and we look for a rebound in both new home sales and pending home sales in April.”
May 22,2015
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GBP/USD hits 2-week low weighed by US data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD resumed the fall and hit a fresh 2-week low as the dollar strengthened on the back of US durable goods data. GBP/USD dropped to a low of 1.5359, last seen May 8, and it was last trading at 1.5380, 0.56% below its opening price.
US durable goods orders dropped 0.5% in April versus a fall of 0.4% expected. However, March durable goods orders rise was revised to 5.1% from a previously reported 4.4% gain. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%, matching expectations.
Separated data showed US home price index rose by 0.9% in March and 5.0% YoY.
The dollar resumed its advance on Tuesday as investors are coming back after the holiday and digesting Fed Yellen's comments. On Friday, Fed Chairwoman said it would be “appropriate at some point this year” to start raising rates. Markets are regaining confidence the Fed will act sooner, after a soft series of Q1 data sparked skepticism.
May 26,2015
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USD/MX off highs on data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is recovering part of the ground lost o the greenback in early trade, now dragging USD/MXN to the 15.28 region.
USD/MXN testing 2-week tops
The pair keeps the trade in the upper end of the weekly range after US Durable Goods Orders excluding the Transportation sector rose more than previously estimated during the last month, bolstering further the upbeat momentum around the greenback.
In addition, Mexican retail sales surprised to the upside during March, advancing 0.2% inter-month and 5.5% over the last twelve months.
USD/MXN relevant levels
The pair is now gaining 0.23% at 15.2914 with the next resistance at 15.4297 (high May 12) followed by 15.4838 (high May 5) and finally 15.5935 (high May 1). On the other hand, a breakdown of 15.1843 (low May 22) would aim for 15.1328 (low May 21) and then 15.0737 (low May 19).
May 26,2015
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DAX defends mild gains
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Germany’s benchmark index, the DAX manages to keep gains, holding on to a minor recovery after sharp sell-off seen on Tuesday after the US dollar rallied on the back of upbeat US macro figures while Greece default concerns also dragged the index lower.
Currently, the DAX 30 trades 0.26% higher at 11656.50 levels, retreating from 11690 session highs. The DAX strives to maintain a bid tone as investors’ sentiment was hampered amid lack of progress seen on the Greece front ahead of its June 5 repayment to the IMF.
The index is seen trading with a positive market breadth, the advance-decline ratio being 18:12. Heidelberg Cement is the top gainer up 1.41% followed by Beiersdorf AG up mere 1.16%. While E.ON SE is down -0.83% on the day, followed by MRG AG which is losing -0.73%.
DAX Technical Levels
The index has an immediate resistance at 11800. Meanwhile, support is seen at 11586 levels and 11410 levels.
May 27,2015
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EUR/GBP rejected at 0.7091
FXStreet (Mumbai) - EUR/GBP extends its upbeat momentum during the mid-European session, largely on the back of broadly stronger shared currency while markets now await the UK Q1 GDP revision on Thursday amid no significant macro releases later today.
EUR/GBP awaits fresh cues
Currently, the EUR/GBP cross trades 0.23% higher at 0.7085, having previously posted fresh session highs at 0.7091 some minutes ago. The cross in EUR/GBP edged higher this session although remains subdued amid lack of fresh triggers for the both the EUR and GBP as traders now shift their focus towards the second estimate of first-quarter economic growth in the UK.
The majority of economists now expect an upward revision to 0.4%. The Bank of England (BoE) expects first-quarter growth of 0.5% in the final estimate.
Moreover, the US dollar seems to have wiped out losses and is on its way to resume its upbeat macro data-led uptrend which again may keep a check on cross.
EUR/GBP Levels to consider
To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7091 (Today’s High) and above which it could extend gains to at 0.7116 (May 24 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7030 (March 12 Low) levels below that at 0.7011 (March 11 Low) levels.
May 27,2015
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ECB decides to leave Greece’s ELA limit unchanged at EUR 80.2 billion
FXStreet (Mumbai) - According to sources from the European Central Bank (ECB), the Executive Board decided on Wednesday to leave Greece’s emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) limit unchanged at its current level of EUR80.2 billion.
The ECB raised the ELA by a modest EUR200 million last week, suggesting that Greek banks had still some EUR3 billion of liquidity left even after a spike in deposit withdrawals in recent days.
According to Greek Kathimerini newspaper, in the past few days, and particularly on Tuesday, there has been a significant increase in deposit outflows from Greek banks.
Kathimerini noted, “Credit sector professionals reported that deposit outflows on Tuesday alone came to EUR300 million, against about EUR100 million per day in recent days. They said that while this amount is quite high, the situation is under control as citizens are remaining calm on the positive messages from Greek officials."
May 27,2015
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USD/JPY moves toward 124.00, makes fresh 8-year highs





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The dollar is extending gains into a fourth consecutive day versus the yen, having printed fresh 8-year highs on Wednesday following a steep rally the previous day.


USD/JPY resumed the rise after a brief dip to the 122.75 zone, and climbed to its highest level since June 25 2007 at 123.76 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 123.70, recording a 0.49% gain on the day.


BOJ chief Kuroda said on Wednesday that is desirable that FX reflect economic fundamentals but refrained from making comments against weak JPY.


USD/JPY levels to watch


On the upside, next resistances are seen at 123.93 (Jun 25 2007 high) and 124.13 (Jun 22 2007 high). On the downside, supports could be found at 122.76 (daily low), 122.45 (intraday support May 26) and 122.00 (psychological level).





May 27,2015

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GBP/USD plummets to 1.5340
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is rapidly depreciating vs. the greenback on Wednesday, dragging GBP/USD to lows around the mid-1.5300s.
GBP/USD hurt by dollar momentum
The context around the deb talks between Greece and its EU creditors continues to deteriorate today, hurting the risk sentiment. The dollar managed to revert the initial negative tone, impacting on the risk-associated universe and forcing spot to retreat to 3-week lows around 1.5340/35.
In the UK economy, the next risk event will come with the release of the GDP preliminary figures for the first quarter, due tomorrow.
GBP/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is down 0.4% at 1.5346 with the next support at 1.5338 (low May 27) ahead of 1.5300 (psychological level) and then 1.5260 (76.4% of 1.5088-1.5815). On the upside, a breakout of 1.5439 (high May 27) would open the door to 1.5475 (high May 26) and finally 1.5478 (38.2% of 1.5700-1.5340).
May 27,2015
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WTI Crude falls below USD 58/barrel on strong US dollar
FXStreet (Mumbai) - WTI crude oil front month futures fell into losses to trade well below USD 58.00/barrel as the US dollar resumed its uptrend against the basket of currencies.
Crude futures clocked a high of USD 58.92/barrel earlier today on expectations that US crude stocks fell for a fourth straight week in the last week. Crude inventories are expected to have fallen by 2 million barrels last week, a preliminary Reuters survey showed.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) data is due for release today, while the US government shall release its own set of data tomorrow.
Meanwhile, prices are also under pressure on widespread belief that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries shall keep production steady at its meeting on June 5.
WTI Crude future Technical Levels
The futures currently trade at USD 57.55/barrel. immediate support is seen at 56.62 (50-SMA), followed by another support at 56.00. On the other hand, immediate resistance is seen at 57.71 (23.6% R of 42.02-62.54), followed by another hurdle at 59.18 (200-SMA).
May 27,2015
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Jobless claims reaction: AUD/USD down to 0.7630
FXStreet (Cocoa) - The AUD/USD is extending declines following US jobless claims. After falling 85 pips from 0.7715 in the day, the AUD/USD is trading at lows since April 15 at 0.7630.
The Australian Dollar is trading lower against the US Dollar as the pair is trading under pressure amid USD strength.
US added 282K initial jobless claims in the last week, above expectations. But data remains at multi-year lows and adds reasons to believe labor market is improving. The jobless claims chart shows that initial jobless claims remain below the 300K mark for the 12th week in a row.
AUD/USD after Initial Jobless claims
Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7633, down 1.27% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7763 and low at 0.7630. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing oversold conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.
AUD/USD levels
If the pair extends declines beyond 0.7630, it will find supports at 0.7600 and 0.7580. To the upside, resistances are at 0.7650, 0.7670 and 0.7715.
May 28,2015
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NZDUSD after Jobless claims: Collapse extended to 4-year lows
FXStreet (Cocoa) - The New Zealand Dollar is adding losses against the US Dollar following the US initial jobless claims data. Now, the NZD/USD collects a 120 pips collapse from 0.7265 traded in the earlier European session to price at lows since May 2011 at 0.7140.
US added 282K initial jobless claims in the last week, above expectations. But data remains at multi-year lows and adds reasons to believe that the labor market is improving in the United States. The jobless claims chart shows that initial jobless claims remain below the 300K mark for the 12th week in a row.
NZD/USD after Initial Jobless claims
Currently, NZD/USD is trading at 0.7155, down 1.53% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7274 and low at 0.7144. NZD/USD spot is in oversold territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
NZD/USD Forecast and Levels
According to Imre Speizer, analyst at Westpac Banking Corporation, the bank expects the "NZD/USD to continue its downward trend during the next few months, targeting 0.70."
As for the short term, if the pair manages to extend losses beyond 0.7140, next supports are at 0.7100 and 0.7080. To the upside, resistances are now at 0.7170, 0.7200 and 0.7210.
May 28,2015
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Canadian GDP contracted 0.6% in the first quarter
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed the economy contracted 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, missing the expectations of a 0.3% gain. This was the first negative growth rate of real GDP since the second quarter of 2011. On a monthly basis, real GDP by industry fell 0.2% in March.
As per the official report, final domestic demand fell 0.4% after increasing 0.4% in the previous quarter, while Government final consumption expenditure was 0.2% lower. Exports of goods and services decreased 0.3%, following a 0.4% decline in the previous quarter. Exports of goods declined 0.5%, while services increased 0.8%. Imports of goods and services fell 0.4%.
May 29,2015
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GBP/USD recovers to 1.5280
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US dollar is being sold ahead of the monthly closing, helping the GBP/USD pair recover to 1.5280 after the official data showed the US economy contracted at slower than expected rate in the first quarter.
GBP/USD sees minor correction post US GDP
The pair fell to a low of 1.5236 immediately after the release of the US GDP report, before recovering to a post GDP high of 1.5280. The second estimate revised Q1 GDP lower to -0.7%, against the expectation of -0.9%. Still, the US dollar suffered minor losses, which may have been due to unwinding of long USD positions ahead of the weekend and month end.
With US GDP out of the way, the investors now await Chicago PMI and final Michigan Confidence index for May.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The pair now trades at 1.5270, with the immediate support seen at 1.5230, followed by support at 1.52. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 1.53 and 1.5336.
May 29,2015
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AUD/USD edges down as commodity currencies underperform
FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD inched a tad lower on Friday and trades near its monthly lows scored the previous day, on track to post its sixth daily loss in a row.
The greenback ignored US GDP downward revision from +0.2% to -0.7% in the first quarter, and continued to move higher versus commodity currencies in a relatively quiet day mostly driven by cautious sentiment.
AUD/USD is currently trading at the 0.7635 area, down 0.12% on the day, having scored a low of 0.7629 in recent dealings. On the downside, immediate support stands at 0.7617, 6-week low struck yesterday, followed by the 0.76 mark.
On the upside, immediate resistances are seen at 0.7629 (daily high), 0.7700 (psychological level) and 0.7760 (May 28 high).
The NZD and the CAD are also among the worst performers, weighed down by soft domestic data.
May 29,2015
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AUD/USD edges down as commodity currencies underperform
FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD inched a tad lower on Friday and trades near its monthly lows scored the previous day, on track to post its sixth daily loss in a row.
The greenback ignored US GDP downward revision from +0.2% to -0.7% in the first quarter, and continued to move higher versus commodity currencies in a relatively quiet day mostly driven by cautious sentiment.
AUD/USD is currently trading at the 0.7635 area, down 0.12% on the day, having scored a low of 0.7629 in recent dealings. On the downside, immediate support stands at 0.7617, 6-week low struck yesterday, followed by the 0.76 mark.
On the upside, immediate resistances are seen at 0.7629 (daily high), 0.7700 (psychological level) and 0.7760 (May 28 high).
The NZD and the CAD are also among the worst performers, weighed down by soft domestic data.
May 29,2015
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OPEC meeting could be a ‘non-event’ – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Andrew Kelvin at TD Securities does not see major announcements in the OPEC meeting due on June 5th.
Key Quotes
“The OPEC meeting on Friday marks the first official meeting after the group broke with tradition and decided to not support the crude oil price environment by cutting production in November last year”.
“At current prices, there is little incentive for the group to cut quota, confirming global oversupply will endure”.
“We have a strong conviction (around 85%) that they leave the quota unchanged, and while that is generally the same conviction as in the market, should result in a modest bearish move as some longs get liquidated”.
“Any cut to quota would see a very bullish move in the market, while there also may be some focus on comments from Saudi Oil Minister al-Naimi or new Saudi Aramco Chairman al-Falihif they provide any forward price guidance, which we think they may try to anchor to around $70 bbl for year-end”.
“Overall, we look to sell any modest bounces in August-delivery Brent at $64 bbl with target at $59.50 bbl, stop at $65 bbl”.
May 29,2015
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EUR/JPY rises further above 136.00
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro kept rising against the yen and reached at 136.40 the strongest level since May 18. EUR/JPY remains above 136.00, consolidating a weekly gain of almost 300 pips.
While the euro has been among the best performers across the board, the yen dropped sharply during the last four days as USD/JPY rallied above 122.00.
EUR/JPY technical levels
Immediate resistance to the upside could be located at 136.40 (daily high) followed by 136.80 (May 15 high) and 137.00. On the opposite direction support might lie at 135.95, 135.40 (daily low) and 134.95.
May 29,2015
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DXY turns positive near 97.00
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback vs. its main competitors is now back in the 97.00 neighbourhood after testing lows near 96.80.
DXY hurt by US data
Once again, poor results from the US calendar today have been weighing on the index, although it has quickly managed to revert the decline to daily troughs around 96.80. In fact, the second revision of the US GDP Annualized during Q1 showed a 0.7% contraction while the Reuters/Michigan index surprised to the downside, dropping to multi-month lows during May. Today’s results add to the higher than expected Initial Claims seen on Thursday.
A glance at next week’s US calendar shows the key ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and the ADP Employment Change (Wednesday) as the main events, ahead of the more significant Non-farm Payrolls on Friday.
DXY relevant levels
The index is now up just 0.03% at 96.99 and a breakout of 97.19 (high May 29) would aim for 97.77 (high May 27) and finally 98.13 (high Apr.22). On the other hand, the initial support aligns at 96.75 (low May 29) followed by 94.82 (low May 22) and finally 94.08 (low May 19).
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UK Services PMI strength due a moderation - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities explained key data events coming up in the UK Services PMI (Tues 3 June):
Key Quotes:
"We are in line with consensus in looking for the Services PMI to moderate slightly from 59.5 to 59.1. The risks around this seem balanced. The strength in the sector is generally overdue for some moderation and there were only minor reports last month of electoral uncertainty restraining activity."
"Moreover, where the clarity could be seen as making planning easier and boosting demand, the outcome itself was not a benefit for all. For example, it has raised the spectre of accelerated job cuts in the public sector."
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United States ISM Prices Paid came in at 49.5, above expectations (42.5) in MayRead more in Forex News june 1,2015OctaFX.Com News Updates

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Banxico expected to keep rates unchanged – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities sees the Mexican central bank keeping its benchmark rates intact at this week’s meeting.
Key Quotes
“On Thursday in Mexico we expect Banxico to keep the Overnight Rate at 3.0%”.
“April CPI inflation was 3.06% Y/ Y, close to the middle of the 3%+/-1% target range, and core inflation was running at 2.31%”.
“Furthermore, USDMXN has risen by only 0.5% since the April rate meeting”.
“We expect Banxico to remain on hold until later this year when it will follow the Fed in hiking rates”.
june 1,2015
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Recent days has been really hectic for me on personal note, as I have been trading with loads of confusion, but only thanks to this broker OctaFX that I read these analysis on daily and feel much more comfortable, it always feel uncomfortable when I have to trade alone without analysis, but this covers that up.

I love using EUR/USD pair to be trade and thanks to this I can do it with rather comfort, it’s a really confusing period to decide about the trend, but thanks to these perfect analysis consistently it has become a lot more easier and helps me get the much needed success, so I can do trading properly without having to face any huddle or difficult situation.

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RBA waiting for the Fed to make the first move – MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, VP of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, shares the key points from RBA’s monetary policy statement and further believes that the Australian central bank might wait to cut rates further till the Fed hike begins.
Key Quotes
“It was not a market surprise that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens opted to keep the bank’s rates on hold (+2%) earlier this morning. The surprise was that the market expected more easing rhetoric. Without it, the Aussie managed to rally hard from its seven-week low.”
“What transpired is that the new RBA policy outlook favors data dependence over renewed easing bias. In other words, like most central bankers that favor a weaker domestic currency or have issues with an overvalued currency, policymakers will more than ever be relying on a Fed rate hike to do most of their domestic policy lifting. Naturally, the AUD/USD (A$0.7682) saw a fair bit of volatility among the dollar majors, as traders digested the changes in the latest RBA policy stances.”
“Stevens continued with his usual rhetoric of trying to talk the currency down by insisting, “Further depreciation seems both likely and necessary.” Analysts noted that the policy outlook component of the statement was clouded by data dependency against the expectation of an outright return to an easing bias in light of the latest soft capital expenditure figures out last week.”
“The lack of a rate cut or easing bias convinced the AUD shorts to pare back existing positions (A$0.7707).”
“The RBA is likely to wait for the May cut to final filter through to the real economy. It’s only natural for policymakers to be somewhat hesitant of cutting rates too soon again, especially with developments in Australia’s “hot” property market. That’s reason enough to wait for the Fed to make the first move.”
June 2,2015
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EUR/USD slows down, but holds above 1.1100
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD held above the 1.1100 level, barely unaffected by the latest batch of disappointing US data, but broadly supported by hopes of a Greek deal around the corner, even after Eurogroup President Dijsselbloem said such an agreement was still far away.
EUR/USD climbed almost 300 pips throughout the day and scored its highest level since May 22 at 1.1193 in recent dealings. The pair faltered ahead of the 1.12 mark and retraced some gains with Dijsselbloem comments. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1120, recording a 1.79% gain on the day.
Optimism Greece could reach a deal with lenders has supported the euro on Tuesday following yesterday’s meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Juncker, Lagarde and Draghi in Berlin. There were speculations the leaders would draft a proposal for Greece, but a government official said the Hellenic country hasn’t received an agreement plan from the institutions.
On the data front, US data came in the soft side. Factory orders dropped 0.4% in April versus expectations of a flat reading, while the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index came in at 48.1, below the 49.8 of consensus.
June 2,2015
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OPEC Meeting Preview: Expect no change in cartel’s policy – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team comments on the oil market and further shares their expectations from the OPEC meeting.
Key Quotes
“After soaring by more than 4% on Friday, the oil price fell by about a percent yesterday and the front-month contract on Brent thus returned below 65 USD/bbl. The move was probably driven mainly by the strengthening US dollar but market positioning ahead of this Friday’s OPEC meeting could also have played a role.”
“Regarding possible outcomes of the meeting, our expectations are in line with those of market and we do not expect any change in the cartel’s policy.”
“Key members of the OPEC, namely Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies, are likely to be happy with a swift reaction of US oil producers on the one hand and with relatively stronger growth of oil demand (vis-à-vis last year’s estimates) that has been spurred by low oil prices on the other. Let us recall that a combination of both factors led to about 13% increase in oil prices on a year-to-date basis.”
June 2,2015
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EUR/USD sees profit-taking ahead of US NFP – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares the technical outlook and key levels for EUR/USD, noting that the pair is seeing some profit taking ahead of the May US nonfarm payrolls scheduled to be released tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“The EUR/USD pair surged to a fresh 2 week high of 1.1379, erasing most of the ground lost to US up ticking inflation mid May. The pair accumulates a gain of around 360 pips from its weekly opening, despite over the last hour has retraced back below the 1.1300 level, as investors are taking profits out of the table ahead of the latest risk event of the week, US Nonfarm Payroll to be released early Friday.”
“There was no macro data in Europe, and the advance was lead by soaring German yields that have been on a wild advance this week. In the US, weekly unemployment claims resulted better than expected in the week ending May 29, down to 276K, whilst Nonfarm productivity during the Q1 shrank more than expected, down to -3.1% in line with the economic slowdown of those months.”
“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price extended its decline after the US news, approaching a bullish 20 SMA, the immediate support around 1.1280. The technical indicators in the mentioned time frame have corrected overbought conditions, and now stand flat well above their mid-lines.”
“In the 4 hours chart, the technical indicators are turning lower in extreme overbought levels, although the price stands well above its moving averages, which suggest corrective downward movements will remain limited.”
“Support levels: 1.1280 1.1240 1.1200“
“Resistance levels: 1.1340 1.1385 1.1420”
June 4,2015
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AUD/USD vulnerable to the downside – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, sees limited support for AUD/USD towards 0.7600.
Key Quotes
“AUD is weak and underperforming, its decline driven by the release of disappointing trade and retail sales. The data have forced a full retracement of Wednesday’s GDP-driven gains, with focus shifting back to the deteriorating domestic picture and its implications for the RBA, with OIS pricing in a 40% chance of a 25bpt rate cut over the next 12 months.”
“AUD is vulnerable and we see limited support ahead of Tuesday’s open near 0.7600.”
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Fed should delay rate hike until H1 2016 says IMF
FXStreet (Córdoba) - International Monetary Fund is looking for the Fed to not hike rates until the first half of 2016 and has reduced their 2015 US growth outlook.
In its annual assessment of US economy, known as an Article IV report, the IMF downgrades its GDP growth forecast for 2015 from 3.1% to 2.5%, amid significant uncertainties as to the future resilience of economic growth. IMF also cut its forecast for 2016, from 3.1% to 3%.
It is unusual for the IMF to be so explicit and specific about countries’ policies.
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SEB: EUR/GBP targeting 0.7130? – eFXnews





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Technical Strategy Team at SEB, note that the possible triangle formation in EUR/GBP targets 0.7130 levels, as shared by eFXnews.


Key Quotes


“If the triangle scenario continues to play out then the pair should be running into selling in the 0.7383/92-area and then beginning a descent that primary targets the 0.7130-area (78.6% of the recent advance).”


This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.









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USD/JPY sees additional gains above 126 – FXStreet





FXStreet (Barcelona) - With strong US payrolls boosting USD/JPY above the 125 handle, the technical indicators suggest the pair sees scope for further gains, according to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet.


Key Quotes


“The USD/JPY pair skyrocketed through the 125.00 figure, soaring to levels not seen since late 2002, at 125.85.”


“Holding on to its gains, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators are losing their upward strength in extreme overbought levels, but far from suggesting a downward corrective movement under way.”


“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators maintain their strong upward strength, supporting additional gains for the upcoming sessions, furthermore if the pair breaks above 126.00.”


“Support levels: 125.50 125.10 124.70”


“Resistance levels: 125.85 126.10 126.50”









June 05,2015

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Credit Agricole: Should we worry about the USD? – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Credit Agricole, there exists a certain risk that the Fed might adopt a cautious tone because of the stronger dollar, but the inflation outlook will keep the FOMC on track for the rate hike, which implies broad based USD strength will make its comeback soon, as noted by eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“Will the Fed adopt a more cautious tone because of the recent USD-strength? We think there is some risk given that confidence in the manufacturing sector is close to the recent lows while weak global trade continues to weigh on US exports.”
“In addition, it remains to be seen whether the US consumer will spend the windfall from lower oil and import prices (May retail sales due on June 11).”
“Last but not least the IMF has recently called on the Fed to delay any tightening until next year.”
“The above being said, one important difference from March is that inflation expectations as measured by Fed's preferred gauge - the 5y5y forward breakeven inflation - have rebounded on the back of stabilising commodity prices. In addition, core CPI as well as earnings surprised on the upside recently.”
“All that could suggest that the FOMC should be growing more confident about the inflation prospects in the economy and move closer to a hike. If that is confirmed next week, USD could extend its gains across the board.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
June 09,2015
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USD/CAD slumps to 1.2350
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback keeps losing its shine vs. its Canadian neighbour on Tuesday, with USD/CAD now dropping to session lows near 1.2350.
USD/CAD hinges on USD dynamics
Absent relevant data in the Canadian docket this week, the pair’s price action will hinge on the publications and developments in the US economy, where May’s retail sales (1.1% exp.) are due on Thursday and the flash Reuters/Michigan index on Friday (91.5 exp.).
In the meantime, spot is retreating for the second consecutive session, extending the rejection from recent peaks above 1.2550.
USD/CAD key levels
At the moment the pair is retreating 0.45% at 1.2354 with the next support at 1.2304 (low Jun.9) followed by 1.2300 (psychological level) and finally 1.2299 (21-d MA). On the upside, a break above 1.2442 (high Jun.9) would aim for 1.2466 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.2473 (high Jun.8).
June 09,2015
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‘Greece to stay in the euro’ – ECB’s J.Makuch
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jozef Makuch, Governor of the Slovakian central bank and member of the ECB Governing Council has wished Greece can remain a member of the euro area.
He has also ruled out any concern regarding the higher bond yields in the region, while he argued that the combination of the current QE programme and the TLTRO are boosting the economic growth in the euro area.
June 09,2015
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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