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Japan risks a below consensus Q1 GDP print – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team notes that the soft Japanese data indicates that Q1 GDP might print a sub-2% print.
Key Quotes
“March completes the 12-month period following the sales tax increase. Retail sales have fallen 13.0% over the past year. The 1.9% decline in March (consensus was for a 0.6% increase) follows a 0.7% rise in February after a 1.9% decline in January. The weakness in consumption in Q1 warns of softer overall growth. The consensus is for 2.2% growth in Q1 GDP. We see the risks for a sub-2% number when it is reported on May 19.”
Apr 28,2015
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Mexican peso could pick up pace in the near term – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso appears somewhat undervalued, according to analysts at JP Morgan, pointing to a recovery in the upcoming periods.
Key Quotes
“FX pass-through to inflation remains almost negligible, as has been the case in the last months, while activity disappointed consensus forecast, again”.
“Indeed, the low inflation prints together with soft economic activity momentum (our economic activity surprise indicator for Mexico remains in negative camp) have prompted a shift in the Banxico authorities, who have toned down their hawkish stance”.
“Therefore, and despite a more rangebound USD, the MXN has underperformed most Latin America peers month-to-date”.
“That said, in the short-term the MXN continues to look cheap to coincidental risk metrics, and soft US data suggests a likely correction from lows”.
“The relative cheapness the currency lingers, as our short-term valuation models continue to screen a cheap MXN in particular vis-à-vis the USD”.
Apr 28,2015
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Canadian dollar and crosses in a technical snapshot - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities offered the Canadian dollar and crosses in a technical snapshot.
Key Quotes:
"USD/CAD retains a weak technical undertone; we continue to target a slide to the low 1.19s but overshoot risks are rising."
"EUR/CAD's bear trend remains intact from a broader perspective but may consolidate further near-term."
"AUD/CAD's pop higher keeps the cross in a choppy (directionless) range."
"GBP/CAD remains potentially well-positioned to rebound from a test of key, medium-term support."
"CAD/JPY is grinding out gains."
"NZD/CAD turns higher again but we think levels nearer 0.94 provide an entry point for shorts."
Apr 28,2015
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Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (-0.1%) in April
Read more in Forex News
Apr 28,2015
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NZD/USD might strengthen further before sellers appear – ElliottWave-Forecast
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Daud Bhatti of ElliottWave-Forecast, expects NZD/USD to find sellers around 0.7860-0.7937 levels.
Key Quotes
“Preferred Elliott Wave view suggests NZD/USD is doing a 7 swing (WXY) structure up from 4.1.2015 low. 3 waves up to 0.7740 completed wave “W” followed by a 3 wave pull back to 0.7534 which we think complete a FLAT in wave X. Afterwards, the pair continued the rally higher and completed wave ((w)) at 0.7740.”
“We are now expecting a pull back in wave ((x)) to correct the cycle from red X low (0.7534) in 3, 7 or 11 swings followed by another push higher toward 0.7860 – 0.7937 area before decline resumes. 50 – 61.8 fib area of wave ((w)) as of now lies between 0.7638 – 0.7613. Pivot at 0.7534 low should remain intact during proposed ((x)) wave pull back for us to see 1 more push higher as shown on the chart.”
“Once we have seen the next leg higher toward 0.7860 – 0.7937, we expect to see sellers in that area for 3 waves lower at minimum.”
Apr 28,2015
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USD/CAD targets 1.1800/50 in the near term – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pair could extend its current downside to the area of 1.1800/50, suggested strategists at Westpac.
Key Quotes
“Likely a 1.20-1.25 trade until further notice, with a break back through 1.25+ at some point still favoured as Canada’s self-appointed cheerleader in chief - Poloz – finds that his optimism for a strong Q2 growth bounce back proves underwhelming”.
“For now he is reiterating that the Jan rate cut was "insurance" and there is no need for more. But he could be singing a different tune in coming months”.
“Recent close below the Feb/Apr range and particularly the parallel channel bottom at 1.2350/80 confirms that a material multi-week top is in place in USDCAD. Target 1.1800/50 trend support”.
Apr 28,2015
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EUR/GBP off highs post –German data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/GBP is now returning to the 0.7160/55 band after the release of the German inflation figures.
EUR/GBP eyes on US data
The European cross is leaving session highs near 0.7170 after preliminary consumer prices in Germany matched consensus for the current month, rising 0.4% on a yearly basis and contracting 0.1% inter-month.
Data wise in the UK, Housing Prices tracked by Nationwide rose 1.0% on a monthly basis and 5.2% on a year to April, surpassing expectations; on a different tone, the Distributive Trades survey by CBI dropped to 12 from March to April, missing estimates at 25.
EUR/GBP key levels
As of writing the cross is up 0.04% at 0.7161 and a break above 0.7171 (high Apr.28) would open the door to 0.7206 (high Apr.22) and finally 0.7210 (high Apr.21). On the flip side, the next support aligns at 0.7118 (low Apr.23) ahead of 0.7102 (76.4% of 0.7015-0.7385) and then 0.7093 (low Mar.16).
Apr 28,2015
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USD/MXN recovers from lows
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is now shedding some of the earlier gains vs. its northern neighbor on Wednesday, taking USD/MXN to the 15.25 area.
USD/MXN bounces off 15.20
The pair dropped to fresh lows in the proximity of the 15.20 level after the US economy expanded less than previously estimates, 0.2% on an yearly basis during the first quarter vs. expectations for a 1.0% gain.
The pair will remain under pressure however, in light of the upcoming results from US Pending Home Sales followed by the more relevant FOMC meeting.
USD/MXN levels to watch
The pair is now losing 0.12% at 15.2384 and a breakdown of 15.1883 (low Apr.28) would open the door to 15.1149 (low Apr.16) and finally 15.0717 (low Apr.10). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 15.3924 (high Apr.28) ahead of 15.4326 (high Apr.27) and then 15.4918 (high Apr.21).
Apr 29,2015
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US growth disappoints, dollar pays price – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mark Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, reviews the US GDP release, noting that the Dollar faced the brunt of much weaker than anticipated Q1 growth data, with investment falling 2.5%, seeing the biggest decline since 2009.
Key Quotes
“The US economy essentially stagnated in Q1, with the economy expanding 0.2% at an annualized rate. The Bloomberg consensus was a for 1% expansion, but we warned of downside risks.“
“The dollar, already under pressure, fell further. The euro has took out the $1.1050 level and sterling has moved above $1.54. The dollar failed to sustain gains above JPY119.00. However, with debt market shrugged it off and the dollar stabilized at lower levels.“
“It was a poor quarter across the board. Consumption, which jumped 4.4% in Q4 14, slowed to 1.9%, which was slightly above expectations.”
“Investment fell 2.5%. It is the biggest decline since the end of 2009. It appears that no other sector has managed to pick up the slack created by the investment cuts in the energy sector. Investment in oil and mining collapsed at a nearly 49% annualized pace.“
“Government spending did not help. State and local governments cut spending by 1.5% at an annualized pace. Spending by the Federal government rose at a 0.3% pace. Net exports were a drag, subtracting 1.25% off GDP, the largest in a year. The trade deficit widened to $522 bln from $470 bln in Q4 14. Price pressures remained modest. The core PCE deflator rose 0.9%, the smallest rise in five years.”
Apr 29,2015
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EUR/USD supported by narrowing UST and bund yield spread – Growth Aces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Eurozone bond yields rising on rising inflation, The Growth Aces Research Team, views that the narrowing yield spread between USD and EUR will support the single currency, hence remain bullish on EUR/USD, targeting 1.1307 levels.
Key Quotes
“The EUR/USD had rallied on Wednesday as the surprisingly soft US GDP data weighed on the USD. The Federal Reserve's post-meeting statement said the economic slowdown was probably transitory.”
“The EUR/USD rally is continued today after Eurozone bonds yields rose on easing deflation fears. The Eurozone ended four months of deflation in April with consumer prices unchanged from year-ago levels. Core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and unprocessed food costs, was unchanged at 0.6% yoy.”
“We expect inflation to rise gradually in the coming months. We will see stronger acceleration in CPI in the fourth quarter this year due to base effects.”
“10-year bond yields for Italy and Spain are now 25-30 bps higher than when ECB’s quantitative easing programme started. Bond yields in France, Belgium, Netherlands, Austria and Finland are already at the same levels when the QE started (or even slightly higher). 10-year German Bund yields are getting closer to levels seen before the ECB started buying bonds.”
“The spread between US Treasuries yields and German Bund yields has narrowed. This situation supports EUR/USD rises.”
“A rise in bond yields may result from the lack of liquidity in government bonds now that the central bank has snapped up large portions of the stock of debt with its quantitative easing programme. However, bonds sell-off has a global character. U.S. Treasury yields also rose, with below-forecast economic growth data and no sign of an early rate hike from the Federal Reserve.”
“We are looking to buy EUR/USD at 1.1040. If the order is filled the target will be above 100-dma, currently at 1.1307, but below strong resistance level of 1.1380 (high on February 26).”
“Resistance: 1.1248 (high Feb 27), 1.1280 (76.4% of 1.1534-1.0457), 1.1307 (100-dma)”
“Support: 1.1072 (session low Apr 30), 1.0960 (low Apr 29), 1.0924 (55-dma)”
Apr 30,2015
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Treasury yields rise on a sharp drop in the jobless claims
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields on the short duration and long duration treasuries in the US rose after the labor department data showed the initial jobless claims in the last week fell to 15-year lows.
The 10-year yield rose to an intraday high of 2.099%, while the 30-year yield rose to 2.793. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield, which mimics short-term interest rate expectations, rose to a high of 0.606%.
The initial jobless claims dropped by 34K to 262K in the week ended April 25, the lowest since April 15, 2000. The actual figure was smaller than the consensus estimate of 290K. The sharp drop in the jobless claims supports the Fed’s view that the job gains are likely to continue despite the slowdown in the first quarter.
Meanwhile, the disappointing personal income and a weaker-than-expected personal spending data for March was ignored by the treasuries mainly because both the numbers were included in the first quarter GDP report released on Wednesday, showed the economy growing at only a 0.2% annual pace after a 2.2% rate in the fourth quarter.
Apr 30,2015
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Gold drops sharply to USD 1185.8/Oz
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices fell to a low of USD 1185.8/OZ from USD 1204/Oz levels after the sharp drop in the weekly jobless claims in the US triggered a wave of buying in the US dollar.
Gold: Trades below 50-DMA
The metal currently trades below its 50-DMA located at USD 1189.37/Oz levels. Gold, which is inversely related to the rate hike expectations, took a beating after the labor department data showed the initial jobless claims in the last week fell by 34K to 262K in the week ended April 25, the lowest since April 15, 2000.
Following the upbeat data, the USD index was pushed higher to 95.44 from the pre-data level of 94.71. Consequently, the metal fell to trade 2.05% lower for the day. Meanwhile, the personal spending and income report was largely ignored since it was a part of the first quarter GDP released on Wednesday.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate support is located at 1183.7 (Apr. 14 low), under which losses could be extended to 1175.00 (Apr. 24 low). On the flip side, a break above 1189.37 (50-DMA) could see the metal re-test its 10-DMA at 1194.27.
Apr 30,2015
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UK political uncertainty set to weigh on GBP – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at Rabobank argue that this UK election has the capacity to create more uncertainty, and that this political risk is going to weigh on the Pound going forward.
Key Quotes
“The political uncertainties this year appear to be extremely high. There is risk that the UK may have to wait a relatively long period before a coalition government is formed. If/Once it is in place, there is fear that it may not be sufficiently coherent to last the full five years.”
“That said, if the 2010 election is used as a precedent, it may be assumed that election jitters in sterling may be fairly muted in the coming weeks.”
“We would argue, however, that this election has the capacity to create more uncertainty than the last. Firstly, opinion polls have not been universally showing that the ‘business friendly’ Tory party is in the lead. Secondly, that ‘business friendly’ tag is confusing since if the next coalition is led by the Tories, a referendum on EU membership is likely.”
“The risk that the UK could leave the EU has the potential to worry international investors more than the general election itself. Given also the unknowns regarding the composition and coherence of the new government, on almost all outcomes the uncertainties for investors could rise post election. This could weigh on sterling going forward.”
Apr 30,2015
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EUR/GBP likely to rise to 0.7350 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, sees further gains possible for EUR/GBP towards 0.7350, with both fundamentals and technicals likely to support the bullish view.
Key Quotes
“The pair is likely to close today above its 50-DMA located at 0.7228. Sharp gains on Wednesday and today could trigger a technical correction tomorrow. However, the losses are likely to be restricted around 50-DMA at 0.7728.”
“A break above 0.7274 could see renewed buying interest, thereby opening doors for 0.7319-0.7329.”
“Further gains to 0.7350 are likely in case the pair manages to close above 0.7329.”
Apr 30,2015
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EUR/JPY extends gains above 134.00
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/JPY rallied another 100 pips and reached 134.34, level last seen back in early March.
Euro up, Yen down
The pair is climbing more than 1% on Thursday, extending the weekly rally to more than 500 pips. While the euro is the best performer in the currency market, the yen is falling across the baord as USD/JPY approaches 120.00 after trading bleow 119.00 just a few hours ago.
EUR/JPY is about to post the highest close in almost two months as it continues to recover from 127.49 (Apr 14 low). From a technical perspective, the euro strengthened considerably yesterday after breaking a key resistance located around 131.50 - 131.70.
Apr 30,2015
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ECB could revise lower its inflation forecasts – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In light of the recent inflation figures in the euro area, analysts at Danske Bank believes the ECB’s forecasts remain too optimistic, and could be revised lower in the June meeting.
Key Quotes
“Euro area HICP inflation increased to 0.0% y/y in April from -0.1% y/y in March”.
“Core inflation was unchanged at 0.6% y/y, as service price inflation declined to a new historical low of 0.9% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in March. The very low service price inflation reflects that there are still no signs of higher wage pressure despite progress in the labour market”.
“The low core inflation increases the likelihood that the ECB will lower its core inflation forecast in June, when it will publish new projections. In March the ECB expected core inflation to average 0.8% in 2015 but with an average of 0.6% in the first four months and a continued downtrend in service price inflation, we expect it to lower its forecast. In 2016 the ECB expects core inflation to increase to an average of 1.3%, which we also believe is too high”.
“A lower core inflation projection from the ECB is important, as it will continue its QE purchases until it sees a sustained adjustments in inflation and not just an increase that is driven by a rebound in energy price inflation”.
May 01,2015
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GBP/USD near-term risk titled to the downside – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, believes that the political uncertainty implies that risks for GBP/USD remain tilted to the downside in the near-term.
Key Quotes
“GBP was soft retracing recent strength and entering the NA session (and the UK long weekend) down 0.4%. Data was mixed, but the release of a disappointing manufacturing PMI (falling to 51.9) weighed heavily on GBP.”
“We continue to cling to concerns over the upcoming election and see near‐term GBP risk heavily weighted to the downside.”
May 01,2015
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Tactically bearish on EM FX but the rally is gaining momentum – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Team at Societe Generale, maintains a tactical bearish approach on EM FX, and further share their FX exposure in the same.
Key Quotes
“Until uncertainty over US monetary policy is eliminated the backdrop for GEM FX should remain challenging (For now, doom and gloom). Lack of appetite by speculative investors to position for medium term appreciation should continue to mitigate any EM rally.”
“We continue to have a tactically bearish view which we express through long USD risk or relative value trades.”
“Our positioning is concentrated in bearish EMEA exposure - long USD-TRY, USD-ZAR, and USD-ILS. – but also includes long USD-BRL and a directionally bullish dollar trade (owning USD-IDR 3x12 NDF spread) and a defensive relative value position (long INR-IDR 12m NDF).”
May 01,2015
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Greenback puts euro under threat in currency wars - Rabobank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that by the end of last year is was becoming evident that the ECB had become a winner in the currency war, taking the baton from the BoJ.


"By wiping the markets into a frenzy of anticipation ahead of the introduction of the asset purchase plan, ECB President Draghi pushed the EUR into a path of rapid depreciation."


"The plunge in EUR/USD was facilitated by the broadbased rise in the USD which was supported by widespread expectations that the Fed could be hiking interest rates by the middle of this year. On the back of a spate of soft US data releases, those expectations now lie in tatters and the USD’s downtrend is showing signs of reversing."


"The dollar index has broken below its 100 day sma. For the first time since the downside trend in EUR/USD started last July it posted a monthly gain in April. EUR/USD1.1265/80 is a key resistance level (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the December high and daily lows throughout February). "


"While a sustained break above would be another constructive short-term signal for the USD we maintain that the sell-off in the greenback is likely to run out of steam."


"The stronger USD has been a major catalyst in the war against low growth and weak inflationary pressures being waged in various part of the world. If the USD sell off persists, there is risk that several central banks will reassert their dovish positions in order to ensure that relative interest rate differentials remain clearly in favour of the greenback."







May 01,2015

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It’s not long since I started trading with this company, but already I am so much addicted to the analysis service I find here daily, it’s incredible to see the accuracy especially given the fact that it’s provided on daily basis, so it’s a kind of stuff that’s not easy to do even with paid service.

It has really made me respect OctaFX all so much more, I was never doubtful about their service and that’s the first reason I joined them, but having such accurate analysis and news updates for free is surely something I never expected, but now the point is that without this it’s not possible for me to survive even for a little while in this market.

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EUR back on the defensive – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, note that EUR/USD remains on the defensive ahead of US NFP, and is poised to test 1.1120 in the short-term, breaking below which might slide towards 1.1050/00 levels.
Key Quotes
“This week will get off to a slow start, with the UK on holiday today. That will not be helpful for the EUR which really needs to see a bit more participation in the long side of the trade if it is to build on recent gains.”
“The end of last week’s trading was inauspicious, with EURUSD stalling around 1.13, a major technical point on the longer-term charts (the first retracement resistance of the 1.40/1.04 decline) and the start to this week’s even less so, with EURUSD trading heavy and poised to test short-term trend support at 1.1120; below here and the EUR will slide back to retest the 1.1050/00 area. If the EUR can’t get above here, it has little chance of sustaining the recent bid.”
“It remains to be seen whether investors want to extend positioning ahead of the US NFP data on Friday, where market consensus expectations currently points to a gain of 230k jobs and a 5.4% u/rate (TD 195k and 5.5%). Good data (even our below consensus call is respectable), in other words, which will go someway at least in dispelling concerns that sluggish US growth will prevent the Fed from raising rates later this year.”
“Good data (and upward revisions to the March result) would be an unequivocal plus for the USD.”
May 04,2015
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GBP/USD erases daily losses
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The British pound managed to bounce from daily lows and erased intraday losses at the beginning of the American session to trade nearly flat on the day against the dollar.
The greenback lost momentum and retreated across the board, helping GBP/USD to bounce from a low of 1.5089 to 1.5148. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.5140, virtually unchanged on the day.
However, sterling investors might remain cautious ahead of Thursday’s UK general elections as polls continue to paint a hung parliament outcome.
GBP/USD technical outlook
“The technical picture continues to favor the downside, despite in the 1 hour chart, the RSI aims higher from oversold territory, as the price stands below its 20 SMA whilst the Momentum indicator heads lower 100”, commented Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart the 20 SMA turned sharply lower well above the current level, whilst the technical indicators are fading its latest upward corrective movement near oversold territory”.
May 04,2015
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Gold prints fresh daily high at USD 1191.8/Oz
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices rose to a fresh daily high of USD 1191/Oz in the early US session as the USD index erase gains and fell into losses.
Gold testing hourly 200-MA
The metal is currently trading around its hourly 200-MA located at USD 1191.8/Oz. Prices received a boost from the drop in the USD index ahead of the factory orders data. The USD index fell from a high of 95.78 to trade at 95.38 levels.
The metal may extend gains over and above its hourly 200-MA in case the USD index extends losses on a weaker-than-expected factory orders print.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1192.00, above which gains could be extended to 1200.00. On the other hand, a break below 1186.5 could push the metal back to 1180.1.
May 04,2015
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DXY bounces off 95.20

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bottoming in the area of 95.20, the US Dollar Index is now looking to regain the 95.30/35 band.

DXY weaker on US data

The index is giving away part of recent gains following the results from the US trade balance, where the trade deficit increased to $51.37 billion during March vs. $41.2 billion expected and $35.89 billion previous. The US Services sector will take centre stage next, with Markits Services PMI and the ISM Non-manufacturing due.

The dollar is trading in red after two consecutive session of gains, looking to recover part of the ground lost following last weeks deep pullback.

DXY relevant levels

The index is now retreating 0.12% at 95.36 and a break below 95.04 (low May 4) would aim for 94.50 (low May 1) and then 94.40 (low Apr.30). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 95.62 (high May 4) ahead of 96.18 (high Apr.29) and finally 96.93 (high Apr.28).

May 05,2015

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Denmark intensified the FX intervention – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jens Pedersen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, reviewed the recent FX intervention figures by the Danmarks Nationalbank (DN).
Key Quotes
“DN has just published April’s balance sheet. It showed that the FX reserve declined DKK32.4bn to DKK705.4bn – DKK33.9bn of the decline was due to DN selling FX in intervention. EUR/DKK traded above the central rate of 7.46038 for most of April, which has triggered DN intervention to support DKK”.
“DN’s intervention in the FX market in April indicates that the downward pressure on EUR/DKK has reversed and that DN is now reacting to cap EUR/DKK upside. Historically, FX intervention of this amount has triggered a unilateral rate hike from DN and, therefore, the market will keep a close eye on DN on Thursday for a possible rate announcement”.
“However, the current circumstances are not normal. DN allowed accumulated inflow into the FX reserve of above DKK100bn following its recent cut of the key policy rate to minus 0.75%. DN may want to shrink the FX reserve by a similar amount before raising its policy rates”.
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Outlook for FX majors – Littlefish FX
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at Littlefish FX, give the outlook for FX majors, expecting a retest of 1.1350 levels in EUR/USD if the pair maintains above 1.1120/40.
Key Quotes
“EUR: While 1.1120/40 supports intraday expect retest and break of last weeks highs en-route to 1.1350”
“GBP: While 1.5050 supports the advance expect a retest and break of 1.55 en route to 1.5560”
“JPY: Rejected at the 120 descending trendline resistance offers a break and close above 120.50 opens April highs”
“CAD: Bids at 120 continue to support on a closing basis, while this level survives anticipate a retest of 123/24 from below”
“AUD: Offers at .8050 reject on the first attempt while .78 supports potential for another run at .8050”
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USD/CAD 6M forecast at 1.23 – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Expecting Fed to hike rates in December, Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, now forecasts USD/CAD at 1.23 in 6 months and 1.25 in 9 months.
Key Quotes
“The market has inferred that the BoC is not positioning itself to follow its January ‘insurance’ interest rate cuts. This conclusion has added further support to the CAD. Together with the recent broad-based sell off in the greenback, the value of USD/CAD has plunged over 6% from its mid-March high.”
“Canadian trade data for March highlighted a widening in the deficit to a record C$3 bln led by a slump in energy exports. These data should hamper further upside potential for the CAD although the outlook will remain dominated by oil prices.”
“On the basis that we expect the Fed to hike rates in December this year, we expect USD/CAD will push higher again in the months ahead. That said, we have pared back our 6 mth USD/CAD forecast to 1.23 and 1.25 in 9 mths.”
May 06,2015
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USD/CHF recovers from 3-month lows
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF bounced off 3-month lows and erased intraday losses as the dollar was lifted by better-than-expected US initial jobless claims.
USD/CHF briefly dropped below 0.9100 and scored its lowest level since Jan 29 at 0.9070 before turning higher. The pair has risen more than 100 pips over the last hours and reached a fresh daily high of 0.9175. At time of writing, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9170, now 0.15% above its opening price.
US initial jobless claims stay near 15-year low
The number of people applying for US unemployment benefits rose by 3,000 to 265,000 in the week ending May 2, beating expectations of 280,000 and holding near a 15-year low. The previous week print, unrevised at 262,000, was the lowest since 2000.
USD/CHF levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, USD/CHF could find immediate support levels at 0.9070 (daily low), 0.9040 (Jan 29 low). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 0.9200 (psychological level), 0.9278 (May 6 high) and 0.9350 (May 1 high).
May 07,2015
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SEB: USD/CAD sees a probable double-bottom - eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team shares that SEB believes the markets have nailed a potential double-bottom for USD/CAD in the short-term picture.
Key Quotes
“Price/momentum divergence should be noted as the market has nailed a potential "Double-bottom" in the short-term picture. This may be enough to keep the still ascending 233day exponentially weighted moving average band (1.1825/1.1725) out of reach.”
“But for confirmation of this setup, 1.2205 must be reclaimed. Follow-through to and beyond the 55day exponentially weighted moving average band (1.2250\1.2390) would also be good to see.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
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EUR/USD extends pullback to fresh daily lows
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD fell further at the beginning of the American session and made fresh daily lows as the greenback recovers ground, underpinned by upbeat US initial jobless claims data.
EUR/USD has lost more than 150 pips during the last hours, after being rejected from a 10-week high of 1.1391. The pair had rallied over the past few sessions, mainly driven by dollar weakness amid disappointing economic data.
Meanwhile, media reports suggesting a Greek deal is unlikely for Monday has also weighed on the shared currency.
At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1265, 0.71% below its opening price, having scored a daily low of 1.1236 in recent dealings.
May 07,2015
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AUD/USD hits fresh lows, approaches 0.7900
FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD broke below 0.7930 and dropped to 0.7909 hitting a fresh daily lows as the US dollar strengthened across the board. The pair moved sideways during the European session between 0.7965 and 0.7930 before breaking to the downside.
AUD/USD still up for the week despite rate cut and jobs data
The aussie continues to trade above the levels it opened on Monday against greenback despite the rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and also after today’s employment report. In Australia the unemployment rose to 6.2% in April from 6.1% while a net 2,900 jobs were lost in the economy; analyst were expecting a gain of 4,000.
The recent slide to fresh lows was boosted by a stronger dollar in the market, following better than expected jobless claims data in the US. So far the area above 0.7900 capped the decline but the pair continues under bearish pressure in the short term.
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WTI testing lows sub-$60.00
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The barrel of the American benchmark for the light crude oil is extending the drop from recent highs beyond $62.00/bbl on Thursday.
WTI worried about Iran
Market participants remain vigilant on headlines from the nuclear talks between Iran and six world’s powers. Prospects of an agreement by end of June could potentially see Iran’s sanctions lifted, allowing the Middle East oil-producer country to resume its production, exerting downside pressure on prices as a consequence.
In the same tone, prices could be under pressure as US oil production could resume its upside following the recent drop in inventories after 17 consecutive weeks of gains.
WTI relevant levels
The barrel of WTI is losing 1.35% at $59.58 with the immediate support at $59.09 (low May 7) ahead of $58.63 (low May 5) and finally $58.37 (low Apr.30). On the other direction, a breakout of $61.31 (high May 7) would aim for $62.58 (2015 high May 6) and then $63.03 (high Dec.8).
May 07,2015
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Election guide - Labour party - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman offered an in depth insight to the UK election in a guide, start with the Labour:
"The first exit polls for the UK election are expected to start coming out at 22:00 GMT today. We think that a clear picture of the voting outcome will emerge around 4:00-5:00 GMT on Friday. Here is a quick party by party guide and analysis."
"Labour: Expected to get 267 seats from 258 currently. It would likely pick up 38 seats from the Conservatives and 9 from other parties, while losing 38 to the SNP. Most projections still give a minority Labour government the highest odds. For example, odds implied by Betfair suggest a 36.4% chance of a Labour minority government. This would require the support of the SNP, either explicitly in a coalition (contradicting campaign pledges) or implicitly (for example via a Labour-LibDem coalition with support of the SNP in vote of confidences). A Labour victory would probably be a mild negative for markets. Investors are already prepared for a hung parliament and know that Labour has a good chance of leading the new government. So it wouldn’t be a major surprise. Moreover, a more pro-growth approach could benefit prove to be positive in the medium-term and taking the EU referendum off the table kills one major tail risk for the pound."
May 07,2015
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Canada Participation rate below forecasts (65.9%) in April: Actual (65.8%)
Read more in Forex News
May 08,2015
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EUR/USD visiting highs on Payrolls
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upside momentum is picking up pace around the euro on Friday, with EUR/USD now climbing to fresh daily highs.
EUR/USD stronger following in line NFP
The pair is reverting its initial downside after the US economy added 223K jobs during April, a tad below consensus at 225K albeit up from March’s 85K (revised from 126K). Further data showed the jobless rate ticked lower to 5.4%.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As of writing the pair is advancing 0.10% at 1.1277 and a breakout of 1.1300 (psychological level) would expose 1.1393 (high May 7). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 1.1182 (low May 8) followed by 1.1175 (low May 6) and finally 1.1100 (psychological level).
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USD/CHF oscillates after US employment data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF oscillated between daily highs and lows as the dollar searches for direction following the release of US nonfarm payrolls.
Data showed, US economy added 223,000 new jobs in April, slightly below the 224,000 expected while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.5% the previous month. However, the bounce was offset by the nasty revision for March, down to 85K from 126K previously estimated.
USD/CHF dropped to a low of 0.9495 and then jumped to a high of 0.9277 as investors continue to digest data. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9235, still 0.23% above its opening price.
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Gold prints fresh session highs on the mixed NFP report
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices rose to a session high of USD 1193.3/Oz, before paring gains to trade at USD 1189.8/Oz after the labor department data in the US showed the economy shed 39K jobs in the previous two months.
Gold: Stuck at 50-DMA
The metal is once again having a tough time in sustaining above its 50-DMA currently located at USD 1190.87. The gains could have been capped as the economy added 223K jobs in April after having added just 84K jobs in March. The rebound in April is more or less in line with the Fed’s view that job markets should remain robust despite slowdown in the first quarter.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at the daily high of 1193.3, above which gains could be extended to 1200.00. On the flip side, a break below 1181.6, could drive the metal down to 1177.5-1169.6.
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USD/CAD approaches 1.2100
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After a quick knee-jerk to the 1.2040 region, USD/CAD has now returned to the area of 1.2100 following US Non-farm Payrolls and Canadian data.
USD/CAD back from 1.2150
Volatility around the pair seems to have eased a tad now, with spot looking to stabilize below the 1.2100 handle following the releases in Canada and the US. It is worth recalling that the US economy created 223K jobs during the last month, in line with expectations, whereas the employment in Canada decreased more than anticipated by 19.7K vs. a forecasted drop of 5K.
USD/CAD key levels
At the moment the pair is down 33% at 1.2087 a breach of 1.2033 (low May 7) would open the door to 1.1940 (low May 6) and finally 1.1934 (low Jan.19). On the other direction, the initial up barrier lies at 1.2164 (high May 7) ahead of 1.2180 (high May 4) and then 1.2205 (high Apr.27).
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EUR/GBP drops below 0.72
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/GBP ran into fresh offers at 0.7250 post which the currency pair fell to a session low of 0.7199.
Euro under pressure ahead of Eurogroup meeting
The shared currency is being offered ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, which is expected to end with another stalemate between Greece and its international creditors. The real concern is a possibility of Greece failing to meet its payment to IMF due tomorrow.
Meanwhile, the British Pound is being favored ahead of the BOE meeting, which is likely to be a non-event. However, the GBP/USD pair has taken out key resistance levels to trade near 1.5490 levels, thereby pushing the EUR/GBP cross lower.
EUR/GBP Technical Levels
The pair currently trades at 0.7205. The immediate resistance is located at 0.7225, above which gains could be extended to 0.7258 (50-DMA). On the other hand, a failure to rise above 0.72 could send the pair down to 0.7162 (Apr. 16 low).
May 11,2015
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BOE maintains Bank rate at 0.5%
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of the purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at GBP 375 billion.
The previous move from the BOE was a reduction of 0.5 percentage points in the bank rate to 0.5% on 5 March 2009. The bank’s latest inflation and output projections will be released via its Inflation Report to be published at 10.30 a.m. on Wednesday. On the same day, an open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor of the Exchequer will be published, following the release of data for CPI inflation of 0.0% in March.
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USD/JPY: consolidation with upside bias – AceTrader
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The AceTrader Team, expects USD/JPY to consolidate in its broad 118.33-122.03 range with a mild upside bias.
Key Quotes
“Despite dollar's retreat from 120.24 to 119.59 in New York session on Friday, as early rally from 119.06 (Thursday) signals further choppy trading inside the 8-week long broad range of 122.03-118.33 would continue and with mild upside bias, re-test of last week's peak at 120.51 is envisaged but break needed to extend up move from April's low at 118.50 towards 120.84.”
“On the downside, only below 119.06 would yield weakness towards 118.70/80 but support at 118.50 should remain intact.”
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Greek default risk heightens – MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at Market Pulse, comments that today’s Eurogroup-Greece talks have heightened the concerns about Greece’s banking system, and further adds about the potential impact on EUR/USD as the previously seen yield support diminishes.
Key Quotes
“The EUR starts this week on the back foot as nerves have convinced some longs to liquidate ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting. Renewed concern over Greece’s future in the eurozone will always produce headwinds for the euro.”
“No agreement is seen on Greece at this time, but European Union members are expecting progress to be evident in the negotiation process. The talks between the Greek government and its international partners are entering a crucial phase, overshadowed by a precarious fiscal situation, heavy debt redemption, and concerns about the stability of Greece’s banking system.”
“A majority of the market expects a deal to be reached, but the failure to reach an agreement in the coming weeks could firmly put Greece on the Grexit path.”
“With the fixed-income market leading the forex moves of late, the EUR bull will be looking toward the rates market for support. A pleasant surprise for EUR long positions is that the two-year U.S.-German yield spread has narrowed -5 basis points since Friday’s jobs report, and with 10s at +158 basis points, they are in -3 basis points today and remain close to last week’s +152 basis points low.”
“The EUR bear is required to break €1.1135 support with momentum before pointing to further losses toward €1.1055 and €1.0850.”
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Gold trades flat
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices trade more or less unchanged on the day at USD 1189.90/Oz, after having recovered from the low of USD 1183.74/Oz.
Gold: a resilient safe haven
The resilience shown by the metal contradicts the drop seen in the other safe haven assets like Treasuries, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Moreover, the metal has ignored the strength in the USD index as well as the hardness in the yields. The 10-year yield in the US has strengthened 3.6 basis points to 2.186%. The Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have lost 0.10% and 0.32% respectively against the US dollar.
Meanwhile, the mixed action in the major European markets, coupled with a flat activity in the US equities fail to provide clear trading cues to the yellow metal.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1192.93 (50-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 1199.5 (May 5 high). On the flip side, a break below 1189.37 (hourly 200-MA), could send the metal back to 1185.86 (hourly 50-MA).
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USD/JPY might extend to 120.45 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, USD/JPY 4hourly technicals remain in favour of some gains towards 120.45, with any further gains possible only on a break above this.
Key Quotes
“The USD/JPY trades in a quite limited range around the 120.00 figure, having posted some limited advances during the Asian session, following Chinese decision to cut rates during the weekend.”
“In the short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price advanced above its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators stand in positive territory, albeit showing no upward strength.”
“In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads strongly north above the 100 level, whist the RSI indicator also aims higher around 55, all of which favors some additional advances, up to 120.45. Nevertheless, the pair needs to extend above this last to extend its advance, as the pair has faltered above the 120.00 level several times over this last month.”
“Support levels: 119.55 119.20 118.90”
“Resistance levels: 120.05 120.45 120.80”
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GBP/USD reaches fresh 2015 high
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD broke decisively above the 1.5520 resistance area and pushed to its highest level in 2015, as the pound continues to strengthen following UK elections.
Earlier on the day, the the Bank of England's MPC left the Bank rate and QE unchanged, at 0.5% and GBP 375 billion respectively, with focus now turning to Wednesday's Quarterly Inflation Report.
GBP/USD surpassed Friday’s high at 1.5523 and accelerated to a peak of 1.5572, last seen December 31st 2014, helped by EUR/GBP slump. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.5563, recording a 0.73% gain on Monday.
GBP/USD technical levels
On the upside, next resistances line up at 1.5572 (daily high), 1.5600 (psychological level) and 1.5640 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5392 (daily low), 1.5300 (psychological level) and 1.5245 (May 8 low).
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USD/JPY outlook neutral - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With USD/JPY still trapped in its broad 118.50-120.50 range, Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, maintains a technically neutral outlook on the pair, awaiting a break from this range.
Key Quotes
“JPY is quiet, consolidating within a narrow range as moderate risk aversion provides an offset to the broader USD performance. Domestic releases are limited this week, given current account and PPI releases and a speech from Gov. Kuroda.”
“USDJPY technicals remain neutral, and we await a break of the month-long range of 118.50 to 120.50”
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EUR/USD: Comes with chances of recovery still above 1.1052
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1159 with a high of 1.1208 and a low of 1.1133.
EUR/USD has seen some out of synch price action that may be correlated to option expiries in the EUR/USD that are both large, close to prevailing rate and close to expiry at NY cut 10am. The price 1.1150 for quick 35 pips or so only to drop back and resume the downside again to prevailing prices.
Meanwhile, there is still a cautious tone over Greece with the forthcoming deadlines and vast amounts of Greek debt that needs to be settled. For instance, tomorrow alone, there is the deadline for Greece to repay EUR757m to the IMF. However, June is not far off and this is more of a concern as there is a requirement for the larger EUR1.5b IMF repayment and then the EUR 3b which will be owed to the ECB in July and August.
Technically, EUR/USD the major is well blow the highs of last week at 1.1392 and there was a divergence in the RSI and hence the resumption of the downside. There is strong support sighted by analysts below prevailing rate, and this is sighted at 1.1052 26th March high. While we trade above here, there is he chance of the upside recovering.
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USD/JPY strong resistance at 120.80/121.20 – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of strategists at Westpac, the area of 120.80/121.20 remains a strong barrier for USD/JPY.
Key Quotes
“At the risk of moving well beyond the point of being considered boring, we remain of the view that USD/JPY is in a range trade, that dips are still an opportunity to buy and that dips are 118.50 or below”.
“The rapid rise in global bond yields/ steepening in Asian NDF curves is flashing warning signals for us, warning signals that a bout of risk aversion may be ahead”.
“AUD/JPY has a double top at 96.00, EUR/ JPY is making 2 month highs. USD/JPY and yen crosses look expensive to us here, so we are not inclined to step up. So we remain neutral for yet another week”.
“Dips held around multiple lows down to 118.33 in the recent weeks. Mild short term upside bias. Resistance remains firm towards 120.80/121.20”.
May 12,2015
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USD/CAD testing lows near 1.2030
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US dollar pared previous gains and dropped to fresh four day lows against its Canadian counterpart in the European session, with USD/CAD extending declines towards 1.20 handle, mainly driven by heavily offered US dollar across the board together with a sharp rebound seen in oil prices.
USD/CAD back on 1.20 handle
Currently, the USD/CAD trades lower by -0.59% at 1.2033, testing fresh four day low at 1.2026 levels. The USD/CAD pair extends losses as the resource-linked loonie strengthened amid a solid come back in oil prices ahead of OPEC report. Oil is Canada’s top export.
Moreover, persistent broad based US dollar weakness also hurts USD/CAD, dragging it from 1.2108 daily highs. The US dollar index (DXY) which measures the relative strength of the greenback versus six major currencies now trades at 94.48, down -0.67% on the day.
USD/CAD Technical Levels
To the upside, the next resistance is located at 1.2108 levels and above which it could extend gains 1.2146 levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 1.2000 levels, below that at 1.1932 (April 29 Low).
May 12,2015
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DXY could drop to 90.00/92.00 – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Dollar Index (DXY) could extend its downside to the area of 90.00/92.00, according to strategists at Westpac.
Key Quotes
“West coast ports and BEA imports data confirm the ports disruption is now in the process of being cleared”.
“15 year lows in jobless claims and still healthy reads for both the Markit and ISM services PMI are encouraging too”.
“However the growing body of evidence suggests the dislocation in energy output and investment along with the higher USD are exerting a bigger drag”.
“Consensus has thus far trimmed 2015 GDP from 3.2% in Jan to 2.8%, yet our analysis suggests these two more enduring headwinds could lop at least 1ppts from 2015 GDP growth”.
“Bottom line the trend toward US growth downgrades and deferred Fed tightening expectations appears to still have a way to go”.
“We have run with a negative one month USD bias and a bullish three month bias for some weeks, in the case of the latter looking for oil prices, yield spreads and growth differentials to swing back in a USD positive direction. We are growing impatient with the three month bullish USD index outlook”.
“Response to numerically significant resistance at 100.00 has been an impulsive rejection, implying a likely multi-week / month decline, initially towards 90.00/92.00”.
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USD/CAD seen higher medium term – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, the pair is expected to resume its upside along with expectations of the Fed hiking by year end.
Key Quotes
“The BoC has decided to look through “the effects of the recent depreciation of the CAD”.
“The market has inferred that the BoC is not positioning itself to follow its January ‘insurance’ interest rate cuts”.
“Together with the recent broad-based sell off in the greenback and higher oil prices, this has supported the CAD and USD/CAD has plunged over 6% between mid-Mar and late Apr”.
“That said, March trade data highlighted a widening in the deficit to a record C$3 bln led by a slump in energy exports”.
“These data should hamper further upside potential for the CAD although the outlook will remain dominated by oil prices”.
“Since we look for a Fed rate hike in Dec, we expect USD/CAD to push higher in the months ahead”.
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Technical outlook for USD/JPY – DayTradeIdeas
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jason Sen of DayTradeIdeas, gives the technical outlook and key upside and downside levels for USD/JPY.
Key Quotes
“USDJPY holding above 120.00/05 targets 120.20/25. If we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 120.50/55. A good chance of a high for the day but shorts need stops above 120.65 to test April highs at 120.80/84. If we continue higher look for 121.00/05 then 121.20.”
“First support at 120.05/00 but below here look for 119.70/75. If we continue lower look for support at 119.50/45. However a break lower today meets support at 119.25/20 which should hold the downside but below here risks a slide to support at 118.95/90.”
“If we continue lower, trend line support at 118.70/60 is a buying opportunity. Try longs with stops below 118.45 but on a break lower look for support at 118.30/20.”
May 12,2015
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EUR/USD deflates to 1.1240




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upside momentum in EUR/USD now seems to have found strong resistance in the 1.1280 area, prompting the current knee-jerk to the 1.1245/40 band.


EUR/USD remains firm above 1.1200


The pair managed to regain the 1.1200 handle after bottoming out in the 1.1130 area on Monday. The fresh upside momentum has been propped up by a wave of selling interest in the debt markets, taking Bund yields to fresh multi-month highs.


In addition, renewed optimism around the Greek debt renegotiation after yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting would be lending support to the euro as well.


EUR/USD levels to watch


At the moment the pair is advancing 0.77% at 1.1241 with the next hurdle at

1.1290 (high May 8) ahead of 1.1392 (high May 7) and finally 1.1400 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1131 (low May 11) would target 1.1067 (low May 5) en route to 1.1059 (38.2% of 1.0521-1.1392).






May 12,2015

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RBA might cut BoE remains dovish, but medium-term GBP bullish view intact – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jacqui Douglas, Chief European Macro Strategist at TD Securities, notes that the Bank of England May QIR saw GDP growth revised lower across the board with risks to global growth now lying to the downside, CPI revised up only ever so slightly in near-term, and inflation still taking two full years to reach 2.0%.
Key Quotes
“Today’s Inflation Report was rather uneventful, with a more dovish outlook than we had anticipated but very little market reaction. Near-term CPI forecasts were revised a little higher, but less than we had expected with the BoE still highlighting a potential move into negative territory in the coming months.”
“GDP growth was revised lower across the forecast horizon, which was not something that we had anticipated. This seems to be due to a combination of the softer Q1 preliminary GDP outcome, and the political situation in Greece leaving the risks to global growth shifting from balanced to the downside now.”
“The BoE also downgraded near-term wage growth, where the February forecast was for a 3.5% Y/Y pace by Q3 this year, and the projection now is for a 2.5% Y/Y rate by Q4, although the 2016 and 2017 forecasts were unchanged at 4% for both years, so the improvement is just going to be a little slower than initially expected.”
“Overall the take-away here seems to be that there’s no urgency at all to begin raising rates, but we still think that markets will start turning toward that idea in the coming months.”
“We think that the Q1 weakness was more of an anomaly, and there’s a good opportunity for a solid bounce in Q2 and stronger growth through the rest of year, which should have markets thinking harder about rate hikes.”
“Especially with Fed rate hikes looking a little less certain this year, it now may be a race between the Fed and the BoE for who will be the first to hike, even if that wasn’t obvious from today’s QIR, so in the medium-term we’re still very comfortable with a bullish GBP outlook.”
May 13,2015
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EUR/DKK peg under pressure? – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, sees the possibility of the EUR/DKK peg to be under pressure.
Key Quotes
“The aggressive monetary easing announced by the DNB at the start of the year was oriented at protecting the EUR/DKK ERMii peg”.
“The impact of that policy is now lending support to economic activity”.
“The DNB expects growth at 2.0% this year and to remain at that level in 2016 and 2017. The Bank has candidly pointed out that “there is no deflation”.
“For a central bank clouded with a deflationary risk, it will always be easier to weaken its currency, as the DNB was trying to do this year”.
“However, once the deflationary risk is removed, aggressively easing could raise the risk of medium-term inflation”.
“It follows that if CPI inflation begins to head higher in Denmark, speculators may yet have reason to bet against the EUR/DKK peg”.
May 13,2015
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US retail sales expected to disappoint – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the US data release today, FX Strategists at TD Securities expect the retail sales results to show a below consensus gain .
Key Quotes
“We finally get some top-tier economic data this week in US retail sales. This report will be for April and will be closely parsed for signs that Q1 softness was more temporary than a sign of a slowdown in US growth.We are looking for small disappointment relative to the market across all measures of retail sales (market: 0.5% m/m for headline) but we would note that the core metric is still expected to be print at a respectable 0.4% m/m (market: 0.5%).”
May 13,2015
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USD remains fundamentally overvalued - Westpac
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The research team at Westpac expects a strengthened downward pressure on the US dollar in the month ahead pointing to the upcoming macro prints and comments from the central bank.
Key Quotes:
"We see little reason to steer away from a cautious USD outlook and stick with a negative week and month ahead bias,"
"Our DXY fair value model, based on relative growth, yield and CB balance sheet trends, as well as world oil prices suggest the USD remains fundamentally overvalued, while consensus growth prospects for 2015 still look too high at 2.8%, with barely 0.4ppts trimmed from 2014 prospects due to the high USD and the dislocation in the energy patch,"
"Our analysis suggests that these two enduring negatives could easily shave 1 percentage point from 2015 growth."
"The PMIs should underwhelm next week while the minutes may weigh on the USD too, assuming they convey the same sentiments as the statement which was more cautious on the economy."
May 14,2015
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Gold inching higher ahead of weekly US jobless claims release
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have strengthened moderately ahead of the weekly jobs data in the US. Fresh bids around USD 1213/Oz pushed the metal higher to the current price of USD 1218.6/Oz.
Gold gains as jobless claims seen rising
The metal is being bid higher in anticipation of an uptick in the weekly jobless claims. The data is expected to show initial claims ticked higher to 275K from the previous week’s 265K. Even the US Treasury yields have dipped, which provides further support to Gold.
The metal had witnessed stellar gains in the previous session as it rose more than USD 20 on the back of a weaker-than-expected US advance retail sales data.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1224.4, above which gains could be extended to 1236.8 (Feb. 16 high). On the flip side, a break below 1215 could push the pair down to its 100-DMA located at 1210.43.
May 14,2015
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Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 1.4% to 1.2% in April
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May 14,2015
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Fed looks for clarity - MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With markets pushing back US rate hike expectations, Dean Popplewell, VP of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse notes the data dependent Fed gives little choice to the central bank but to wait for further clarity.
Key Quotes
“The Fed has its problems. They want to raise rates, but the timing is crucial, as too soon could unwind all the good that would require them to back peddle. Yellen and her fellow cohorts are trying to justify their next move on the back of Q1 “transitory” blip.”
“Yesterday’s U.S retail sales number was a bust and a big disappointment to those who are banking on a Q2 rebound in consumption. The drop in year-over-year energy prices (tax saving), higher savings and a stronger labor market (+5.4% unemployment rate) has yet to convince the U.S consumer to spend.”
“The Fed’s normalization rate time line is data dependent, but the latest batch of economic releases are very much mixed and are accompanied with quiet a bit of market noise. This would suggest that recent asset price moves are not wholly fundamentally drive.”
“The stretch positions taken of late are led mostly by fear and liquidity constraints, whether it’s in the fixed income, commodities or forex asset class. The Fed’s data dependency motive gives them little choice but to wait for such clarity. Hence why U.S fixed income is looking further out their curve for the first rate hikes.”
“Some dealers are leaning towards September, but current data would suggest that the Fed has time on their side. This is allowing others to push back Fed rate hike expectations into next year.”
May 14,2015
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Gold rises to three-month high, Silver gains 1.5%
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extended gains to hit a three-month high of USD 1223.3/Oz, while Silver jumped 1.5% to trade at USD 17.42/Oz as previous metals pack benefits from the sell-off in bond and equities.
The precious metal have been supported recently by the sell-off in the bond and equity markets. Furthermore, a weak US dollar is also supporting gains. Even the strong data out of the US are being ignored by the previous metals, which is evident from the uptick witnessed today post the release of a better-than-expected US weekly jobless claims data.
Gold has now rallied for three consecutive sessions, gaining more than USD40, while Silver too has gained from USD 16.13 to USD 17.42 levels. The precious metals pack could extend gains even further in case the sell-off in the equities and bond markets continue.
May 14,2015
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EUR/USD key support at 1.1340 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that the key support for EUR/USD remains at 1.1340, and as long as the pair remains above it a move towards 1.1533 stands likely.
Key Quotes
“With no macroeconomic data released in Europe, market's attention gathered around Greece's headlines, as FM Yanis Varoufakis has been hitting the wires with doom announcements among which he said that Greece would have never had to join the union, or that the country will sink without reforms. He also claimed for a delay in its repayments to the ECB and said they will pay the IMF only they get a deal.”
“Nevertheless, the common currency held near its highs with a brief dip down to 1.1374 before regaining the upside.”
“In the US, weekly unemployment claims came out better than expected last week, down to 264K, whilst Producer Price Indexes for April resulted negative, -0.4. Good employment, bad inflation, a mixed message when it comes to next FED's rate hike.”
“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the pair is struggling to hold above 1.1400, whilst the technical indicators have turned lower in positive territory and the 20 SMA provides a short term support around 1.1375.”
“In the 4 hours chart indicators are turning lower in overbought territory, but still far from signaling a strong retracement.”
“The critical support comes at 1.1340, and as long as the price holds above it, there's room for an upward continuation up to 1.1533, early February daily high.”
“Support levels: 1.1375 1.1340 1.1300”
“Resistance levels: 1.1430 1.1465 1.1500”
May 14,2015
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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