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EUR/JPY weakens ahead of the ECB bond buying results






FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/JPY pair is trading in the red as the markets await the European Central Bank (ECB) bond buying results for the last week. The pair has repeatedly lost steam around 142.80-143.00 levels, due to which the pair has moved lower towards 142.30 levels.


Moreover, the yen has strengthened against the US Dollar tracking the weakness in the US Treasury yields. The single currency appears exhausted as markets expect the Eurozone Sentix Inventor Confidence to have dipped to -13.8 in November. The EUR is also likely to stay weak as investors await the (ECB) bond buying results for the last week. The first week of the program saw a mere EUR 1.7 billion in uptake. The EUR/JPY pair may fall further today, if the ECB announces a sharp increase in the amount of bond buying program of the last week.


Meanwhile, a further fall in the benchmark bond yields across the Eurozone shall tilt the yield spreads in favor of the Yen.


EUR/JPY Technical levels


The pair currently trades 0.35% lower at 142.25, with the immediate support at 141.96, under which the pair can fall to 141.65. Meanwhile, a breach of the immediate resistance located at 142.73, shall open doors for a re-test of 143.48.






Nov 10, 2014

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EUR/GBP stuck near 0.7860
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/GBP pair made another attempt to test 0.7860 levels today and failed after the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence remained near 18-month low in November.
The EUR/GBP pair currently trades at 0.7851, compared to the previous session’s close of 0.7846. Moreover, the pair has made repeated attempts to rise above 0.7860 levels for the last entire week. However, the single currency is unable to extend the gains despite rising occasionally above 0.7860 levels. Moreover, the US Dollar has been strengthening equally against the EUR and the GBP, thereby restricting the EUR/GBP cross to a narrow range.
Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair may inch higher if the ECB) bond buying results disappoints market expectations. The bond buying during the first week of the program was just EUR 1.7 billion, which as per analysts is not sufficient to push the ECB balance sheet towards early-2012 levels.
EUR/GBP Technical levels
The pair has a strong resistance at 0.7866, above which it can rise to 0.7885 and 0.7910 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support at 0.7838 shall push the pair down to 0.7810 levels.
Nov 10, 2014
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Brent trades at one-week high
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent crude clocked a one-week high today as Chinese exports grew more than expected in October, signaling more demand for Crude in future.
Brent for January delivery is trading at USD 85.23/barrel, compared to the previous session’s close of USD 84.23. The prices rose after official data in China showed exports increased 11.6% from a year earlier, easily exceeding the 10.6% estimate. Meanwhile, the imports rose 4.6%, compared with estimates of 6%. Moreover, Brent prices rose as a rise in export activity means more industrial activity in China and more demand for Crude.
However, the recovery may be technically driven since the commodity has been in the down trend since June 2014. The technical correction is likely to be capped since the concerns of excess supply still dominate the market sentiment.
Brent Crude Technical Levels
Brent has an immediate resistance at 86.39, above which the prices can rise to 87.17. On the flip side, a breach of 84.61 on the downside, can push the prices down to 84.12 levels.
EUR/GBP Technical levels
The pair has a strong resistance at 0.7866, above which it can rise to 0.7885 and 0.7910 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support at 0.7838 shall push the pair down to 0.7810 levels.
Nov 10, 2014
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Bank of Russia abandons exchange rate policy mechainsm
FXStreet (London) - According to a release by the Russian central bank, effective from today, the Bank of Russia abolished the exchange rate policy mechanism through cancelling the permissible range of the dual-currency basket ruble values (operational band) and regular interventions within and outside the borders of this band.
Exchange rate liberalisation
However this move does not constitute a complete rejection of intervention by the Bank of Russia in its currency. It will still intervene in the case of what it perceives to be financial stability threat.
In theory, the removal of the operational band of dual-currency ruble values means that the currency will be free-floating and moves away from the central bank’s policy of the sale of $350 million a day if the rate of the ruble drops below the lower band – a move that was announced this week by Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina. However, the scope of what constitutes a β€œfinancial stability threat” is likely to be a wide one, at least in the short to medium-term.
The ruble has declined 25 percent against the dollar in the year-to-date, with the Bank of Russia estimating that capital flight from Russia is set to reach USD128bn this year.
Nov 10, 2014
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GBP/JPY climbs to 184.00
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - The decline of the yen across the board pushed GBP/JPY to 184.00, reaching the highest price last Thursday, when it reached 184.30, the strongest level in six years.
The pair was trading below 182.00 during the Asian session but then jumped and climbed rising more than 200 pips in a few hours. The rally found resistance around 184.00 and currently trades at 183.75/80, up 0.96%, headed toward the highest daily close since 2008. The yen is so far the worst performer across the board.
GBP/JPY testing 2014 highs
Last week the pair reached 184.40 but reversed quickly and ended the week below around 181.50. On Monday the pair stabilized and today is soaring, approaching last week highs. A consolidation on top of 184.00, would expose the highs. The area around 184.40/55 is an important long term resistance, followed by 185.70/80.
Nov 11, 2014
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Yen Weak, USD/JPY stronger - BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mark Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman views the decline in the yen having a nearly immediate effect on the yen-value of the income earned from overseas investments, and sees USD/JPY heading towards 118.
Key Quotes
β€œThe yen is off almost 1% against the US dollar and nearly as much against the euro. The greenback poked through the JPY116 level, after having dipped barely and briefly through JPY114 yesterday. For its part, the euro has bounced from JPY142 yesterday to nearly JPY144 today.β€œ
β€œOnce the US dollar can establish a foothold above JPY116.00, the next target is near JPY118.00. β€œ
β€œThe JPY113.50-114.00 area should now provide support.”
β€œGiven the higher volatility, the upper Bollinger Band (two standard deviations above the 20-day average), which the dollar had been bumping against last week, is now near JPY117.30.”
Nov 11, 2014
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Uncertainties Weigh on JPY – TD Securities
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Forex Research Team at TD Securities view the USD/JPY path higher to be risky in lieu of the uncertainties revolving around the BoJ policy outlook.
Key Quotes
β€œConcerns that Japan’s fiscal reform efforts are stalling and that PM Abe may call a snap election if he decides not to push ahead with the second-leg of the proposed sales tax increase in 2015 have weighed on the JPY through the overnight session.”
β€œUSDJPY traded through 116 briefly, the highest level seen since 2007.β€œ
β€œThese uncertainties are clear JPY negatives on the face of it but the broader outlook for USDJPY will hinge on the BoJ’s response to the government’s fumbling of the sales tax increaseβ€”inflation expectations and inflation may edge lower as a result of the delayed sales tax increase but, without more obvious efforts to rein back Japan’s sovereign debt burden, the BoJ may be reluctant to provide further monetary stimulusβ€”as well as where US yields head from here.β€œ
β€œWe think the longer-term direction in USDJPY remains higher but, with US nominal yields reluctant to move up and the BoJ policy outlook perhaps a little more uncertain, USDJPY’s path higher is not without risks.β€œ
Nov 11, 2014
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GBP/USD Forecast: focus on wages – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet comments that the GBP/USD pair saw a short term downward spike to 1.5880 after UK employment figures, as the report shows both, unemployment rates and jobless claims missing expectations.
Key Quotes
β€œThe BOE is about to release its quarterly inflation report, which means things can turn as sudden as it did earlier, but at this point, seems Pound may continue rising against the greenback."
β€œThe 4 hours chart shows price advancing above a mild bullish 20 SMA that currently converges with the mentioned daily low, whilst indicators hold in positive territory, lacking strength at the time being. Price advances towards the week low posted late US session yesterday of 1.5944, so it will take an upward acceleration above 1.5950 to confirm further gains, eyeing first 1.5990 price zone, and later 1.6020/30.”
β€œThe downside seems now more limited, as it will take a break below mentioned 1.5880 to see the pair turning intraday bearish towards recent lows in the 1.5820/30 price zone.”
Nov 12, 2014
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Carney: UK inflation outlook is materially lower
FXStreet (London) - "Main development is that inflation outlook is materially lower. It's more than likely I'll have to write to the chancellor" – Bank of England governor Mark Carney speaking on the release of the Quarterly Inflation Report.
Nov 12, 2014
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EUR/GBP rebounds to 0.7850
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After challenging the 0.7800 key support, EUR/GBP has now reverted the decline and is posting fresh session highs in the 0.78500 neighbourhood.
EUR/GBP boosted by BoE
The renewed weakness around the pound is allowing the current rebound in the cross following the key BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report. The central bank remained apathetic regarding the first rate hike, although it stressed that inflation risks are broadly balanced and expectations anchored. The BoE also revised lower its GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 2.9% from 3.1%, mainly due to the euro zone fragile condition. On the critical wage growth subject, Carney argued its recovery will continue pari pasu with the improvement in the labour market.
EUR/GBP relevant levels
As of writing the cross is up 0.08% at 0.7844 with the immediate resistance at 0.7864 (high Nov.6) followed by 0.7875 (21-d MA) and finally 0.7885 (high Oct.31). On the downside, a breach of 0.7799 (low Nov.6) would open the door to 0.7791 (low Oct.2) and then 0.7767 (2014 low Sep.30).
Nov 12, 2014
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BOE’s QIR pushes GBP down - TD Securities
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Fage, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities notes that the dovish tone of the BOE’s inflation report were the prime catalyst to push GBP to set new lows for the day.
Key Quotes
β€œGBP initially received some support from the employment data, having traded down against USD prior to the release. Although the unemployment rate was a bit higher than expected, it was the upside surprise in earnings growth which really caught the market’s eye. However, the dovish tone to the BOE inflation report caused GBP to trade back down to set new lows for the day. GBP is now down –0.35% against USD on the day.”
Nov 12, 2014
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USD/CAD softer near 1.1310
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing the grip vs. its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, dragging USD/CAD to the lower band of the range around 1.1315/10.
USD/CAD supported at 1.1300
Apathetic first half of the week for the pair so far, with no relevant releases in both Canada and the US. Spot continues to meander between 1.1300 and 1.1400 in response to the lack of relevant catalysts, while market participants wait for the weekly report on the US labour market and the BoC Review, both due tomorrow, and Retail Sales and the Reuters/Michigan index to be published on Friday.
USD/CAD levels to watch
The pair is now losing 0.05% en 1.1321 with the immediate support at 1.1300 (psychological level) ahead of 1.1294 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.1264 (low Nov.3). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1359 (high Nov.12) would target 1.1402 (high Nov.11) en route to 1.1450 (high Nov.7).
Nov 12, 2014
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GBP remains weaker – BTMU




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ notes GBP remaining weaker after the BoE QIR supported delayed rate hike expectations.


Key Quotes


β€œThe pound has remained on a weaker footing following the release yesterday of the more dovish than expected Quarterly Inflation Report from the BoE. The QIR supported market expectations that the BoE is unlikely to begin raising rates until late next year, which were described as β€œappropriate”.”


β€œThe BoE lowered substantially their outlook for inflation in the near-term although remains comfortable that it will return to target by the very end of their forecast horizon.”


β€œCable is likely to remain under downward pressure as the BoE is now more likely to follow rather than lead the Fed in raising rates from next year.”


β€œHowever the pound is still likely to strengthen further against the euro and yen as the BoE remains on track to raise rates well ahead of both the ECB and BoJ, and economic growth in the UK should continue to outperform compared to in the euro-zone.”









Nov 13, 2014

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USD Consolidates – TD Securities
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, see the USD trading a little softer overall on the day in terms of the DXY’s performance, while most major currencies post small gains versus the big dollar.
Key Quotes
β€œThe narrowing consolidation range in place in the DXY since the start of November shouldβ€”sooner or laterβ€”give way to a more dynamic phase of market movementβ€”most likely higher.β€œ
β€œWhat the catalyst for the move will be remains to be seen; US yields are holding in a range and, on the day, Fed and ECB speak has the potential to attract the market attention, but perhaps not spark much appetite for fresh and aggressive positioning. Ditto for weekly claims and the JOLTS survey, even if these numbers support the impression of a better labour market.”
β€œFriday’s US retail sales and Monday’s (Sunday evening ET) Japanese GDP data may trigger a little more interest, especially the latter, given the ongoing speculation about PM Abe getting ready to postpone the VAT tax hike of Oct 2015.”
β€œFrom a positioning point of view, we want to buy into modest USD dips versus the majors. For instance, we would buy USDJPY on a move lower into the mid/upper 114s.”
Nov 13, 2014
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United States Initial Jobless Claims above forecasts (280K) in November 7: Actual (290K)
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Nov 13, 2014
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US initial jobless claims rise to 290k
FXStreet (London) - Data released by the US department of labor showed that in the week ending November 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 290,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 278,000. The 4-week moving average was 285,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 279,000.
There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
Nov 13, 2014
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Poland M3 Money Supply (YoY) down to 7.7% in October from previous 7.8%
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Nov 14, 2014
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EIA forecasts lower Natural Gas price
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its short-term energy outlook released this week, said the Natural gas will cost less this winter due to record high production.
The agency expects the spot price of natural gas to average USD 3.97/mmBtu this winter, down from last month's estimate of USD 4/mmBtu. Last winter, spot prices averaged US 4.53/mmBtu. The EIA also lowered its price forecast for 2015 from USD 3.84/mmBtu to USD 3.83/mmBtu.
Natural Gas for December delivery traded 0.75% higher at USD 4.007 at the time of writing. Moreover, the commodity has posted losses since the beginning of this week.
Natural Gas Technical Levels
Natural gas has an immediate support at 3.977, under which prices can fall to 3.955 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 4.064 and 4.10 levels.
Nov 14, 2014
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Canada Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) above expectations (1.1%) in September: Actual (2.1%)
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Nov 14, 2014
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United States Export Price Index (YoY) fell from previous -0.4% to -0.8% in October
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Nov 14, 2014
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USD/CAD in fresh lows sub-1.1350
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After being rejected from the 1.1390 area, USD/CAD has tumbled to the region of session lows around 1.1350/45 on Friday.
USD/CAD softer despite good US data
The recovery from previous lows in sub-1.1360 levels proved to be ephemeral despite US Retail Sales surpassed forecasts during October, growing 0.2% inter-month. Spot is back on the red territory and challenging session lows closer to 1.1350 ahead of the speech by Fed’s Bullard and the Consumer Sentiment gauge by the Reuters/Michigan index. In the opinion of Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, technical studies are mixed, β€œas spot has failed to reach a fresh high, upward momentum has been lost and studies have shifted to a less bullish stance; likely warning of a temporary period of range trading”.
USD/CAD levels to watch
The pair is now losing 0.26% en 1.1344 with the immediate support at 1.1300 (low Nov.13) followed by 1.1294 (Kijun Sen) and then 1.1281 (low Nov.12). On the upside, a break above 1.1402 (high Nov.11) would aim for 1.1450 (high Nov.7) and then 1.1466 (high Nov.5).
Nov 14, 2014
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Dollar helps EUR/USD break to the downside - FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet sees better than anticipated US Retail Sales data boosting the dollar and breaking the EUR/USD pair to the downside.
Key Quotes
"Better that expected US Retail Sales up 0.3% in October after a flat growth in September, sent dollar higher against all of its rivals early US session, with the EUR/USD finally breaking to the downside the symmetrical triangle that contained price for all of this week, reaching 1.2398 before bouncing."
"Despite the break lower should signal the bearish trend is ready to resume, the fact is that the pair has been finding buyers around the 1.2400 earlier in the week also, so further declines are still required to confirm the move."
"Short term, the 1 hour chart presents a clear bearish momentum with price moving away from its moving averages, while the 4 hours chart maintains a neutral technical stance amid the weekly range."
Nov 14, 2014
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NZD/USD erases gains, retreats toward 0.7900
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - NZD/USD retreated further during the European session and recently bottomed at 0.7909, the same price it close on Friday. The pair closed a bullish gap and erased gains.
NZD/USD gains on data but reverses
During the Asian session boosted by retail sales data from New Zealand, that rose above expectation during the third quarter (+1.50% vs +0.85%), the kiwi climbed pushing NZD/USD to 0.7973, reaching the highest price since October 29.
According to analysts from TD Securities, the rise in core retail sales of 4.5% from a year ago in volume terms and 4.2% in dollar terms, plus β€œthe drop in NZ oil prices, and most recent credit card transaction data showing a strong start for the Dec qtr, we expect strong momentum in retail to follow.”
The pair failed to hold to gains, started to retreated and accelerated during the last hours. From the highs it has fallen more than 50 pips and remains near the lows, trading around 0.7910.
Nov 17, 2014
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JPY winning the race to the bottom? - Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank sees the huge amount of monetary stimulus currently been pursued by the BoJ, opening the central bank to accusations that it is deliberately following a policy to weaken the JPY.
Key Quotes
β€œThe huge amount of monetary stimulus that is currently been pursued by the BoJ has opened the central bank to accusations that it is deliberately following a policy to weaken the JPY. This policy finds support in the fact that the fiscal position of the Japanese government is in such poor shape.”
β€œInsofar as Japan needs to import most of it energy resources, there have been some concerns about the impact of a weaker JPY on fuel bills of Japanese businesses, though weaker oil prices have since lessened these worries.”
β€œIn response to these concerns, BoJ Kuroda in early September remarked that virtuous cycles in Japan’s economy wouldn’t be derailed by a weaker yen – this is about as candid that BoJ are likely to be with respect to commenting on the exchange rate.”
β€œIn view of market expectations that the next move in Fed interest rates would be a hike, the BoJ’s recent announcement of more QE was well timed to push USD/JPY higher."
"While the disappointing performance of world growth made hinder the improvement in Japan’s external balance, given the country’s poor fiscal position hand we expect the BoJ to retain its ultra dovish position and look for USD/JPY to continue edging towards the Y120 area.”
The pair failed to hold to gains, started to retreated and accelerated during the last hours. From the highs it has fallen more than 50 pips and remains near the lows, trading around 0.7910.
Nov 17, 2014
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USD/JPY pushes 117 briefly - BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH Global notes USD/JPY breaking the 117.00 level to later return back to 11.6 levels in European Morning.
Key Quotes
β€œThe US dollar is mostly higher to start the week, with two exceptions. The first is the yen. The unexpected contraction in Q3 GDP triggered a stock market slide (Nikkei off 3%, giving back around 40% of this year’s gains) and spurred a dramatic short-covering squeeze in the yen after the greenback first pushed briefly through the JPY117.00 level.”
β€œThe dollar found good bids near JPY115.50 from where it based and returned to the JPY116.30 area in the European morning. The New Zealand dollar is the other exception, helped by a strong retail sales report (1.5% in Q3 vs. consensus of 0.8%).β€œ
β€œDovish comments over the weekend by the BOE’s Carney and Haldine, who played up the disinflation risks, took a toll on sterling. It fell a cent from the Asian high near $1.5735 to return toward the 2014 low set before the weekend.”
β€œFor its part, the euro traded as high as $1.2580 in Asia, on follow through buying after the construction pre-weekend price action. However, sellers re-emerged; encouraged by comments from ECB’s Mersch suggesting, at least theoretically, a wide range of assets the ECB could buy, including gold shares and ETFs.”
Nov 17, 2014
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EUR/GBP retreats from 1-month high after BoE minutes
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - EUR/GBP pulled back from fresh 1-month high after the release of BoE meeting minutes, which showed the MPC remained split over the need for an immediate rise in interest rates, with 2 member voting to hike rates.
Overall, minutes were less dovish than expected, giving pound some support. The BoE said there was a risk that any remaining slack might soon be exhausted, causing inflationary pressures to build.
EUR/GBP retreated to a fresh daily low of 0.8005 from a 1-month high of 0.8037 pre-minutes. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8007, a few pips below its opening price.
EUR/GBP levels to watch
As for technical levels, 0.8002 (Nov 14 high) and 0.7954 (Nov 18 & 17 lows) are EUR/GBP support levels, while 0.8037 (Nov 19 high) and 0.8053 (200-day SMA) are immediate resistances.
Nov 19, 2014
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EUR/USD falters ahead of 1.2550
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - EUR/USD moved off daily highs and gave up ground, weighed by cross action and a strong drop in Eurozone construction output.
Eurozone construction declined 1.8% in September from August, and a 1.7% from a year earlier. EUR/USD backed away from daily highs but it continues to clinch above 1.2500 ahead of FOMC minutes to be published at 19:00 GMT. The shared currency hit an hourly low of 1.2523 in recent dealings, and it is currently trading at 1.2538, virtually unchanged on the day.
EUR/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.2576 (Nov 17 high), 1.2600 (psychological level) and 1.2616 (Oct 31 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.2511 (Nov 19 low), 1.2467 (10-day SMA) and 1.2442 (Nov 18 low).
Nov 19, 2014
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Bank of Japan board probably still divided despite 8-1 vote – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team expects BoJ to be on hold in 2015 as they view the presence of considerable disagreements on the BoJ board.
Key Quotes
β€œFirst, we think there is still considerable disagreement on the BoJ board and it will be difficult to get a majority for additional easing.”
β€œSecond, the government’s postponement of the consumption tax hike has also reduced BoJ’s manoeuvring room. With no fiscal headwinds and the support from a substantial weaker yen, the outlook for growth in 2016 is quite strong.”
β€œHence, it looks like BoJ will have to start tapering at some stage in 2016. It should be remembered that even without additional easing BoJ's balance sheet will be expanded aggressively in 2015.”
β€œWe continue to see a weaker yen in 2015 on the back of a monetary policy that remains very accommodative, even without additional easing.”
Nov 19, 2014
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NZD/USD slides further below 0.7900
FXStreet (CΓ³rdoba) - NZD/USD dropped sharply during the Asian session and continue to slide on European hours until if found support around the 0.7840 level. The pair rebounded during the last hour as the US dollar retreated across the board.
NZD/USD weakened by dairy prices and USD
At the beginning of the day the kiwi weakened in the currency market after a dairy auction showed a decline of 3.1% in prices. NZD/USD continued to decline as greenback gained momentum and bottomed at 0.7837, reaching the lowest price since last Friday. From the lows, the pair rose 30 pips and it was trading at 0.7866, down 0.75% for the day.
The pair dropped 135 pips from Tuesday’s highs that lie around a key short term resistance located around the 0.7975 area, that capped the rally of the kiwi several times during the current week.
Nov 19, 2014
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United States Building Permits (MoM) registered at 1.08M above expectations (1.04M) in October
Read more in Forex News
Nov 19, 2014
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Will FOMC minutes stray from the beaten path? - MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse, expects FOMC to make some noise as the market remains overtly bullish on USD.
Key Quotes
β€œToday, Fed watchers are looking for elaboration on a number of points, especially employment and inflation.”
β€œThe market will be expecting the usual range of opinions to be offered up – global development and inflation concerns.”
β€œThe varying views are likely to be balanced by discussion of removing the β€œconsiderable” period language and downplaying oil related softness in headline inflation (the weak energy prices are also helping – think of it as a form or stimulus).”
β€œThe market remains overtly bullish the U.S dollar, but it has sought a strong enough reason to kickstart the dollar’s next leg higher. Will investors get that reason later today?”
Nov 19, 2014
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GBP/USD returns near 1.5700; but not so fast!



FXStreet (San Francisco) - After testing the 1.5700 area and being rejected to 1.5660, the GBP/USD took forces of a good housing data in the US and jumped to test the 1.5700 area again; however, the pair got another hit.


The US building permits rose 4.8% to an annual rate of 1.08M in October; Housing starts decline 2.8% to 1.0M but previous month was largely revised to +7.8%.


Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5672, up 0.26% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5703 and low at 1.5590. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting overbought hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.


GBP/USD sentiment


A hawkish tone from today’s BoE minutes catapulted GBP from multi-month lows in the 1.5590/80 band to fresh weekly tops at the 1.5700 handle. However, Credit Suisse looks "for GBPUSD to weaken."


The Swiss bank comments that "market expectations for the first BOE hike have already pushed out into H2 2015. Any further moderation in data momentum and inflation further undermines chances of a hike in 2015."


However, the hourly chart is showing the MA 20-hours crossing the MA 50 line to the upside at 1.5640.


With a successful break above 1.5700, the GBP/USD will find next resistances at 1.5735, high Nov.17, ahead of 1.5745, MA 200-hour. To the downside, supports are at 1.5640, 1.5600, 1.5590 and






Nov 19, 2014

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Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.8%) in September: Actual (1.8%)
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Nov 20, 2014
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United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 237.43 below forecasts (237.97) in October
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Nov 20, 2014
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EUR soft after the release of disappointing PMIs - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is weak, down 0.2%, after failing to maintain its post FOMC rally to 1.2600 as the currency came under additional pressure on the release of disappointing Eurozone PMIs, with the flash composite dropping to a 16‐month low of 51.4, disappointing expectations.
Key Quotes
β€œThe details suggest that the pace of economic growth in Europe has slowed further, with the manufacturing PMI at just 50.4 and services at 51.3; France was particularly weak, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 47.6; while Germany’s dropped to 50”
β€œSince the announcement of ECB asset purchases on October 2nd, the balance sheet has fallen from €2.05trn to €2.03trn, highlighting the impact of loan repayments to the ECB and the hurdle the ECB faces in expanding its balance sheet."
β€œEURUSD short‐term technicals are mixed β€” several technical studies are warning of building upside pressure; while others have not shifted from bearish territory.”
β€œThe lack of clarity from technicals warns of a period of range trading. Support comes in at Tuesday’s open of 1.2450; while resistance comes in at the recent high of 1.2600.”
β€œA break above 1.2600 would open up at test to the 50‐day MA at 1.2663.”
Nov 20, 2014
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PBoC cuts interest rates, raises deposit-rate ceiling
The People’s Bank of China has announced a cut in interest rates effective 22 November. The central bank has cut the 1-year lending rate to 5.6 percent with the 1-year deposit rate cut to 2.75 percent.
The PBoC also raised the deposit-rate ceiling to 1.2 times the benchmark.
Nov 21, 2014
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Dovish Draghi turns EUR/USD technicals lower – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ani Salama, Analyst at FXStreet, notes that EUR/USD fell sharply on Friday, turning short-term outlook into negative after Draghi said the bank will do what it must to raise inflation back to its target of 2%.
Key Quotes
β€œTechnically speaking, EUR/USD short-term perspective has turned bearish, with indicators pointing down below their midlines.”
β€œHowever, with the RSI in oversold levels in 1-hour charts, the euro might enjoy a consolidation phase ahead of another leg lower.”
β€œNext support stands at 1.2400, and a break below would signal the end of the correction and resume the broader bearish trend, with 2014 low at 1.2357, as immediate target.”
β€œOn the other hand, EUR/USD needs to regain the 1.2560 area (38.2% Fibo of 1.2882-1.2357) to ease the bearish pressure.”
Nov 21, 2014
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EUR/USD finds oxygen at 1.2420
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sharp sell off in the EUR/USD seems to have found some support in the 1.2420 vicinity on Friday.
EUR/USD in multi-day lows
Spot keeps suffering the effects of the dovish appreciations by ECB’s Draghi earlier on in his speech in Frankfurt, falling to the area of 1.2425/20 where it presumably found some support. The pair is thus eroding its weekly gains, trading back to levels last seen on Friday 14th November. Without any data releases left in Euroland and an empty docket in the US economy, the demand for the euro would likely remain subdued at current levels. According to Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank β€œseveral technical studies are warning of building upside pressure; while others have not shifted from bearish territory. The lack of clarity from technicals warns of a period of range trading”.
EUR/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.87% at 1.2436 with the next support at 1.2400 (psychological handle) ahead of 1.2398 (low Nov.4) and finally 1.2394 (low Nov.11). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.2602 (high Nov.19) would aim for 1.2614 (low Oct.23) and then 1.2617 (high Oct.31).
Nov 21, 2014
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Both rates and oil currently pushing CAD – BAML
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch explained that their view for a higher USD/CAD has continued to play out in their favour, with our short-term target at 1.14 for the end of this year.
Key Quotes:
β€œWhile much of the Canadian dollar's drop has logically been the result of the decline in oil prices, rate differentials have also arguably played a key role”.
β€œOur Chart of the Day looks at the daily drivers around USD/CAD since 2013, as explained either by oil or oil in conjunction with rates”.
β€œWhile the value of USD/CAD explained by oil has been rising, rate differentials have also played a crucial role in explaining the weakness in Canadian dollar, as they have with many risky currencies”.
β€œStill, we would argue that the decline in CAD may stall out going forward”.
β€œUSD/CAD is fairly close to levels that it previously approached earlier this year, when WTI was closer to US$100/barrel”.
β€œIn our view, a reversion in oil prices, as well as a relatively robust US growth picture that should ultimately benefit the Canadian economy, will help support the CAD next year”.
β€œOf course, in the short-term, the upcoming OPEC meeting on November 27 presents substantial event risk for oil, and thus potentially impact USD-CAD”.
β€œMoreover, deflationary risks that push the Fed into delaying rate hikes could well wind up moving the CAD higher, as the Bank of Canada currently remains locked in its current rate”.
β€œIn the medium-term, however, we still focus on both oil and a solid US outlook, which we do believe will move the Canadian dollar modestly higher, in contrast to many of our USD forecasts”.
Nov 21, 2014
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Bitcoin back at USD 350
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The virtual currency extended slide today after closing at a one-week low in the previous session as the prices continue to correct after a sharp rally which saw the virtual currency rising to USD 454.60 levels.
Bitcoin traded 1.31% lower at USD 351.34 at the time of writing, compared to the previous session’s close of USD 355.37. Elsewhere, the BTC/EUR pair is trading 0.94% lower at 283.59 levels. Meanwhile, CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index, which calculates the average price of Bitcoin across globe, is down 0.97% at USD 352.67 levels.
Litecoin or LTC/USD has also weakened 1.325 today to trade at USD 3.52 levels.
Bitcoin Technical Levels
Bitcoin has an immediate resistance located at 355.37, above which gains could be extended to 370. Meanwhile, support is seen at 338 and 318 levels.
Nov 21, 2014
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USD/CAD finding support after dumping a cent
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CAD is trading at 1.1229, down -0.67% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1328 and low at 1.1190.
The USD/CAD has dumped over a cent, while analysts at TD Securities explained that the pair may start to find support in the low 1.12 area after this morning’s slide below congestion (now resistance) in the mid/upper 1.12 area. β€œShort-term trend momentum is picking up bearishly, so the market is likely to remain biased to the downside in the short
run at least”.
As with the general beat of the rum, the dollar is being questioned and scrutinized in respect of whether it can sustain a rally in a disinflationary environment around the globe and how slower growth might impact the US economy and the Feds interest rate policy going forward. β€œA quick move back above 1.1270 would be a positive for the USD but that looks a big ask at this point”, explained the analysts at TD Securities.
USD/CAD noteworthy levels
Current price is 1.1230, with resistance ahead at 1.1241 (Daily Classic S2), 1.1274 (Daily Classic S1) and 1.1283 (Hourly 20 EMA). Next support to the downside can be found at 1.1226 (Weekly Classic S1), 1.1193 (Daily Classic S3) 1.1176 (Weekly Classic S2) and 1.1166 (Monthly Low).
Nov 21, 2014
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US Session: The market left shell-shocked on Draghi




FXStreet (Guatemala) - The US session was scrambling around in a panic on the back of Europe’s action with Draghi taking the spot light delivering a speech that left markets with a strong indication that we will see further easing which sent the Euro to finish up a shave away from the November lows and over 1.2% down on the US shift and close to 200 pips lower on the week.


GBP/USD took a back seat in the consolidation corner having been bolstered on the UK's domestic data from and strong retail sales surprises in the week in London but the pair finishes up now back into neutral territory down 0.25% on the session with lows at 1.5626.


USD/CAD was scrambling back lost ground towards the end of the NA session and back in for the mid 1.1200’s on the back of CPI for the Canadian economy and rising WTI prices. CPI year on year came in for October at 2.4% vs 2.1% expected and 2.0% previous.


EUR/JPY was a big moved and made a huge correction from the 148 handle and through the Nov low at 146.39 on the back of Draghi’s comments.


AUD/USD found a base on 0.8860 after a steep drift lower post its European markets highs through the 0.87 handle when China cut 1 their year lending rates by 0.4 and the 1 year deposit rates by 0.25 to 2.75% to help bolster the economy.


USD/JPY remained a non-contender and only managed a sideways drift in the US session having given all that it could give from the lows on the 117 handle in Europe. Previous to that, the Yen had strengthened when Japan's finance minister gave the markets his concerns about the rapid depreciation of the currency in Asia trade. Aso said "the pace of the decline in the past week has been too fast". The pair finishes up at 117.80 into the close.








Nov 22, 2014

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All eyes on the OPEC meeting at Vienna - DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank note that the Thursday’s OPEC meeting at Vienna will be a closely watched affair with speculations going around that there will be a 1m a day cut in barrels produced.
Key Quotes
β€œThere has been no shortage of news-flow around the event recently with prices declining sharply over the last couple months in anticipation that OPEC will not cut production.”
β€œIn recent weeks it appears that the camp has become split with the likes of Saudi Arabia and other low-cost producers with large FX reserves happy to run down the price to gain market share.”
β€œOn the other hand the likes of Venezuela and more recently Iran are reported (Bloomberg) as saying that they may propose a 1m a day cut in barrels produced. They are campaigning for higher prices to balance their budget and improve fiscal positions. β€œ
β€œWe will no doubt hear further statements this week from producers in the run up to the meeting so it’s something to keep an eye on.”
Nov 24, 2014
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PBoC fires its first salvo in FX wars – Rabobank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Rabobank Research Team note PBoC entering the FX war fiasco by surprising the markets with a rate cut.
Key Quotes
β€œOnly few weeks after the BoJ shocked the markets with a huge dose of fresh monetary policy stimulus, the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly cut its base 1-year lending rate by 40bps to 5.6% with the 1-year deposit rate trimmed by 25bps to 2.75%. β€œ
β€œThe PBoC also increased flexibility in the banking sector allowing banks to offer deposit rates at up to 20% above the benchmark from the previous cap of 10%. β€œ
β€œWhile the central bank insisted that its first interest rate cut since 2012 (following somewhat insufficient targeted easing measures) is β€œa neutral operation and doesn’t mean any change in monetary policy direction”, it seems that China fired its first salvo in the currency war with the BoJ.”
Nov 24, 2014
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What’s the sentiment around EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is hovering over the 1.2400 handle at the beginning of the week, posting almost no reaction after the positive IFO figures from the German economy.
β€œKey resistance above the 1.2600/14 area is regarded as 1.2740/70, the 23.6% retracement of the entire move lower seen in 2014 and the lows for 2013 and late October high”, observed Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank.
In addition, Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, commented, β€œWith the EZ curve bull flattening further on Friday, expect implicit downside pressure on the EUR-USD to persist… On the CFTC front, net leveraged EUR shorts increased further in the latest week and note that these numbers also pre-dated Draghi’s latest comments and the pair may continue to test towards 1.2350 if 1.2400 is not reclaimed”.
Nov 24, 2014
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EUR undermined by dovish speech from ECB President Draghi – BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that euro remained at weaker levels in the Asian trading session after falling sharply on Friday following a dovish speech from ECB President Draghi before the European Banking Conference.
Key Quotes
"In his speech, President Draghi described in context the significant shift that has taken place in ECB monetary policy since last September and how their new instrument of asset purchases operates."
"The inflation environment was described as β€œincreasingly challenging” highlighting that he is particularly concerned that a too prolonged period of inflation becomes embedded in inflation expectations. Indicators of inflation expectation over the shorter horizon were described as β€œexcessively low” although long-term indictors were on the whole described as still consistent with price stability”."
"He reiterated that β€œif on its current trajectory our policy is not effective enough to achieve this, or further risks to the inflation outlook materialise, we could step up the pressure and broaden even more the channels through which we intervene, by altering accordingly the size, pace and composition of our purchases”."
"The market has interpreted the comments as signalling that there is higher likelihood of the ECB implementing sovereign debt QE although there was no specific reference to it in the speech". As a result the yields on 10-year Italian and Spanish governments both declined by around 10 basis points on Friday, and EUR/USD fell sharply from around 1.2550 to just below the 1.2400-level."
β€œOverall, the speech was consistent with our view that the ECB will likely continue to ease monetary policy which will remain a weight on the euro in the year ahead. However, the short-term euro sell off following the speech could prove to be somewhat of an overreaction."
Nov 24, 2014
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Ftse trades near 2-month high
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The London’s Ftse index traded flat near a two-month high today as further gains in the index were capped by a bout of profit taking in the mining shares.
The Ftse traded largely unchanged at 6751.00 levels at the time of writing. The index breadth is positive with an advance decline ratio of 57:42. Shares in the insurer Friends life gained 5.12%, while shares in Aviava fell 3.9% on a possible deal to buy rival Friends life for GBP 5.6 billion. Aviva shares tanked as analysts say the deal is relatively more beneficial for the Friends life shareholders.
Meanwhile, Petrofac shares tanked 23.39%, its biggest single day drop ever, after the company lowered its net profit forecast in 2015 to around USD 500 million, which is the lower end of its previous guidance range of USD 580 million to USD 600 million.
The index gains were mainly capped by the losses in mining index, which is down 1.3%, tracking a fall in the major commodity prices. Shares in major miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo American fell 1.7% to 2.1%.
Ftse Technical Levels
The index has an immediate resistance located at 6782, above which gains could be extended to 6800.00 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 6740 and 6714 levels.
Nov 24, 2014
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Singer: ECB easing should have a positive effect on the Czech economy
FXStreet (London) - - Speaking in Vienna, Czech Central Bank governor Miroslav Singer defended the decision to maintain the CZK27 cap, despite the cost of maintaining the level.
Singer stated that the reason for leaving the koruna cap in place until 2016 is to fight the deflation threat from the Eurozone. He added that deflation risk is not yet behind the the Czech economy and that the central bank is pushing towards its 2 percent target.
The Czech central bank governor added that he supports ECB monetary easing, saying that it should have a positive effect on the Czech economy. A weaker euro should benefit countries such as Germany and Austria – major trading partners to the Czech Republic.
Nov 24, 2014
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Another interest rate cut from the Bank of Korea on the way? – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst Omkar Godbole, views that post the PBoC rate cut, pressure may build on Bank of Korea to cut rates again.
Key Quotes
β€œWith weak growth prospects along with CPI inflation at 1.2% in October, Korea risks importing deflation if the Yuan weakens along with the Yen. The Bank of Korea has a three‐year 2.5 to 3.5% inflation target band, but annual inflation has stayed in the 1% range since January 2013.”
β€œThe PBoC’s rate cut last week has certainly increased pressure on the central banks in Asia to act.”
β€œHowever, Bank of Korea is likely to wait and watch the movement in the JPY/KRW and CNY/KRW pair. So far, both pairs are trading steady.”
β€œThe JPY/KRW is already trading at July 2008 levels. Technically, if the pair fails to rise above 10.00 levels, the Won could extend gains to 9.00 and 8.60 levels.”
β€œThe CNY/KRW pair is stuck around 181.50‐182.00 levels, after rising more than 10% since the beginning of Jan 2014.”
β€œSo far, the CNY/KRW exchange rate has not resulted in sudden and sharp appreciation of Won against the Yuan, despite China announcing a rate cut on Friday.”
β€œA further rise in the USD/JPY pair along with a rise in the USD/CNY shall make another interest rate cut from the Bank of Korea inevitable.”
Nov 24, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates
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USD/MXN drops to lows near 1.1361
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is now picking up pace vs. the US dollar, dragging USD/MXN to challenge session lows in the 13.600 area.
USD/MXN weaker post-data
The pair lost upside momentum after the jobless rate in the Aztec economy fell to 4.78% during October vs. 5.08% previous, and the 1st half-month inflation ticked higher to 0.74% in November from 0.5%. Spot thus continues to consolidate around the key 13.6000 handle, coming down from 2014 peaks near 13.6800.
USD/MXN key levels
The pair is now losing 0.02% at 13.6118 with the next support at 13.5975 (low Nov.21) ahead of 13.5820 (Tenkan Sen). On the flip side, a breakout of 13.6690 (high Nov.21) would expose 13.6795 (2014 high Nov.4).
Nov 24, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates
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