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Canadian employment but print a soft number, USD/CAD could test 1.27 – TDS






FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities expect Canadian jobs print to print a soft figure and weaken CAD, expecting USD/CAD to test 1.27 levels.


Key Quotes


“A week devoid of Canadian data finally comes to a halt today with all eyes on the March employment report. We are looking for a weaker jobs print (-10k) relative to the market (flat) but as we noted in our preview yesterday, we think the risk around funds is asymmetric.”


“The market is conditioned to see weak Canadian data and with the way that USDCAD has traded over the past two sessions, we think the market will need to see a significant decline in headline payrolls to push USDCAD significantly higher from here.”


“We do think a print close to our forecast could test 1.27.”


“Conversely, should the data best expectations, we think it would open up greater downside potential for funds closer to the 1.25 handle. In the event that this happens we think a sharp correction in funds would eventually re-engage dip buyers.”


“The data today will not change expectations for the Bank of Canada meeting next week, so we may remain in a broader consolidation range for a while longer.“












Apr 10,2015

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EUR/USD back around 1.0600




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The bullish attempt in EUR/USD seems to have run out of legs near 1.0640, with spot now deflating to the 1.0600 neighbourhood.


EUR/USD focus on the ECB, Greece


The resurgence of the buying interest around the greenback have been dragging the pair from the critical resistance area at 1.1040/60 on Monday to today’s 3-week lows around 1.0580.


The leg lower came despite Greece repaid the IMF €450 million on Thursday, although uncertainties keep building up regarding the whole debt renegotiation and rumours that the country could run out of money towards month-end.


EUR/USD levels to watch


The pair is now losing 0.54% at 1.0601 with the next support at 1.0580 (low Mar.18) followed by 1.0551 (low Mar.17) and then 1.0457 (12-year low Mar.16). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.0685 (hourly high Apr.10) would target 1.0788 (high Apr.9) en route to 1.0797 (10-d MA).










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US economic expansion remains intact – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team preview the key drivers in this week likely to impact the USD, noting that the economic data due out in the coming days will likely reinforce the belief that another weak Q1 was a bit of a fluke, with weather, the port strikes, and payback from a surge in consumption in Q4 slowing activity.
Key Quotes
“The US economic expansion remains intact. We expect the Beige Book prepared for the upcoming FOMC meeting to provide anecdotal evidence that economic activity is strengthening.”
“Retail sales fell three consecutive months through February, but likely bounced back with a vengeance. We already know that auto sales were strong. An early Easter and a seasonally adjusted gasoline prices can combine for a strong report. The GDP component (excludes autos, gasoline and building materials) has not posted a gain since last November. It is expected to have risen by at least 0.5% in March.”
“The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE deflator, is not being reported this week but its close cousin, core CPI, will come out Friday. The small month-over-month rise in both the core and the headline will likely only be enough to keep the year-over-year readings steady at 1.7% and 0% respectively.”
“The view of numerous officials, including the leadership at the Federal Reserve, is influenced by ideas that over time the tightness of the labor market will boost the general price level (inflation). That means that as long as the labor market continues to improve, higher measured core inflation is not necessary to reach a consensus on lift-off. However, a decline in core inflation would not be particularly helpful in this context.”
“Manufacturing output has also been soft, declining in the three months through February. It should bounce back in March, even if industrial output as a whole is weak.”
“Similarly, US housing starts have begun Q1 poorly. The flat January reading was followed by a sharp 17% decline in February. Expect the thaw in March to have helped fuel recoup the loss almost in full. Softness in permits, however, warns that housing is still likely to disappoint.”
Apr 13,2015
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Politics in the UK should continue to trump economics – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team believes that the uncertainty of the formation of a majority government in the UK will keep any economic data release out of the picture.
Key Quotes
“Politics in the UK should continue to trump economics until at least the May 7 election. The fear that many have is that the politicians will be unable to cobble together a majority government. "
“The era of now single party governments could have given the Lib Dems a key role, but it has gone and eviscerated itself and will be punished in the polls. Partly Cameron ensured this by not allowing the Lib Dems to give their constituency any meaningful policy victories.”
“UKIP seems to believe its own propaganda and has a self-serving interpretation of its strong showing in last year's EU parliamentary elections. It will be lucky to win more than a handful of seats.”
Apr 13,2015
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Brent Oil pares gains
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Front-month Brent futures have pared more than 50% gains ahead of the US session due to a stronger US dollar. Prices had hit a high of USD 59.501/barrel earlier today as speculators increased bets on higher prices amid a slowdown in US drilling.
Strong USD weighs
Part of the gains were erased, tracking the rise in the USD index above 100.00 levels. Disappointing Trade figures from China could have also weighed eventually over prices. Prices had gained earlier today as the declining US rig count in the US diverted the market attention to the imminent reduction of production. Reuters data shows open interest in WTI strike options for $60, $70, $80 and $90 per barrel on NYMEX has risen steadily since January, showing that many traders are betting on rising prices.
However, analysts said a big rally was also unlikely, although latest CFTC data showed the biggest weekly rise in the long positions since 2011.
Brent Crude Technical Levels
The futures currently trade at USD 58.50/barrel. The immediate support is located at 57.85 (50-DMA), under which losses could be extended to 57.42 (5-DMA). On the flip side, resistance is seen at 58.67, above which gains could be extended to 59.50.
Apr 13,2015
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Bunds remains constructive for 160.04 – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, expects Bund futures to see a correction before heading higher towards 160.04 levels.
Key Quotes
“The market approaches our key target area of 0.13% and price target of 159.53, as the futures chart indicates there may be a correction from here, as momentum starts to fade. This however does not alter the overall constructive view as long as the market remains above the 20-day MA.”
“Given a previously-formed Methods continuation pattern on the futures chart (over the period of 10-18 March), I believe that the price will see a further swing to 160.04 and possibly 160.88 after a correction (to most likely the 158.70 support) is completed.”
Apr 13,2015
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EUR/USD might make a quick move down to 1.04 - TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, view that the Euro bear trend has resumed, and EUR/USD might make a quick move towards 1.04 before seeing a minor rebound.
Key Quotes
“The data calendar picks up again in the US this week, with retail sales, PPI, IP, housing, CPI data all due as well as an early look at April activity via the first of the regional surveys.”
“Investors appear to have decided that the Fed is not that far away from lighting the blue touch paper for “lift off” so positive data should add to the momentum in the dollar that was clearly starting to build up again last week, especially perhaps if the Empire and Philly surveys beat expectations and bolster hopes of a rebound in activity after a sluggish Q1.”
“Focus on prospects for Fed tightening will contrast with Wednesday’s ECB meeting where President Draghi will run through how the first month of the central bank’s asset purchase programme has gone and underscore that there is more to do despite the recent firming in EZ activity.”
“Price action last week looked negative for EURUSD and points (strongly, in our opinion) to a resumption of the broader bear trend evident in the past few months.”
“We look for a fairly quick move down to 1.04 from here now and expect firm resistance minor rebounds.”
“Intraday, we expect strong resistance at1.0580/90.”
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Gold wavers above USD 1200/Oz
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices jumped to USD 1206.6 before settling around USD 1203.4/Oz levels, as the USD index pared gains and dropped below 100.00 levels.
Tests Hourly 200-MA
Prices rose above hourly 200-MA but failed to sustain above the same located at USD 1204.68/Oz. The sudden jump in the prices was largely triggered by the drop in the USD index from a high of 100.27 to 99.71. Meanwhile, mixed action in the major US index futures failed to influence the metal.
The metal may fall back below the USD 1200 mark, in case the US equities make a positive start to the week. A rebound in the USD index too could send the metal lower.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1209.20, above which prices could rise to 1215.22 (200-DMA). On the flip side, a failure to sustain above 1200.00 could lead to a sell-off towards the 50-DMA located at 1193.54.
Apr 13,2015
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AUD/USD extends recovery to 0.7600
FXStreet (Tokyo) - The Australian Dollar is trading in recovery mode against its American counterpart as the pair is now testing the 0.7600 area after bouncing off 0.7550.
Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7595, down 1.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7680 and low at 0.7552. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
AUD/USD forecast
Earlier in the day, the AUD/USD fell to 11-day lows at 0.7550 as the pair was under pressure following weak Chinese trade data. However, according to Nenad Kerkez in the AUD/USD Forecast Poll, the AUD is "being most resilient currency vs USD strength." In addition, the "latest RBA comments may push the price up to 0.7900."
As for the short term, if the pair breaks above 0.7600, it will find next resistances at 0.7615, 0.7640 and 0.7660.
Apr 13,2015
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US stocks begin the week on a positive note
FXStreet (Mumbai) - US stocks advanced moderately on Monday, extending the rally witnessed for the two consecutive sessions.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 37.00 points, or 0.20%, to 18093.50 and the S&P 500 index gained 4.14 points, or 0.20%, to 2106.20. The Nasdaq Composite rose 23.02 points, or 0.46%, to 5019, climbing back above 5000 for the first time in nearly three weeks. In early March, the Nasdaq Composite climbed above the 5000-point level for the first time in almost 15 years.
Among stocks, shares in General Electric fell 1.9%. The company’s plan to divest its banking operation, GE Capital over the next two years boosted shares last week. Shares of Qualcomm Inc. rose 2.5%.
The investors are waiting for more cues in the form of quarterly results. According to FactSet Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post a 4.8% fall in earnings. Energy earnings are expected to slump 65% from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the economic calendar in the US is light today. Ahead in the week, retail sales, inflation and industrial production in March are due for release.
Apr 13,2015
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Spec positioning on oil climbs 43% in past two weeks –
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood, comments that although the CFTC positioning data shows that the long positions on oil has increased 43% in the past two weeks, some caution is warranted as the market is still not away from the bear trend.
Key Quotes
“If you add Easter into the equation the oil price went up last week by a modest 5%, but on the weeks trade only the late rally on Friday pushed crude into positive territory.”
“The reasons are a bit samey, the Iran settlement news is losing traction with every day that passes, now not only is an immediate withdrawal of sanctions expected but apparently IAEA inspections not welcome without which there is no deal. Accordingly, markets are now not penciling in any Iranian crude arriving any time soon.”
“The second piece of positive news on Friday was a decent rise in the number of rigs lost last week after two rather pathetic figures. The overall rig count was down 40 at 988 and oil lost 42 to 760 which did just enough to give the bulls a few hours in the sun.”
“What they havent worked out yet is that despite the number of rigs halving since October the US production is still 9.4m b/d.”
“Having said all that the CFTC data is showing that ‘specialist market operators’ are calling the price up, last week saw the biggest rise in long positions since 2011. A rise of 52/- lots to 225/- lots is big and the two week rise is 43%, somebody is certainly taking a view.”
“I would change the word from specialist to speculatory and without wanting to be a Jeremiah, say that we are still far from out of the woods.”
Apr 13,2015
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GBP/USD rallies above 1.4700 as Fed rate hike expectations pushing back in Q4
FXStreet (Tokyo) - The British Pound is trading higher against the US Dollar after the weak US retail sales and after jumping 90 pips in the latest few minutes, the GBP/USD is testing levels above 1.4700.
The US dollar is trading under pressure following the weaker than expected US retail sales in March as investors are assuming that poor economic data will delay the Fed's first rate hike until the Q4. US continues sending weak economic signals as retail sales rose 0.9% in March, +0.4% ex-autos; well below expectations.
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4708, up 0.23% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.4733 and low at 1.4603. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
GBP/USD levels
If the pair consolidates levels above the 1.4700, it will find next resistances at the 200-hour MA level of 1.4755 and then 1.4800 and 1.4820. To the downside, supports are now at 1.4700, 1.4680 and 1.4600.
Apr 14,2015
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Gold recovers from session lows
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices recovered from the session low of USD 1183.7/Oz after the weaker-than-expected US advance retail sales number hit the wires.
Gold recovers as the USD weakens
The US dollar fell across the board, pushing the USD index lower to 99.18 levels. Consequently, the metal recovered from the session lows to a high of USD 1192.4 before settling at USD 1187.7/Oz levels. The metal came under pressure earlier today after being rejected at USD 1200.00 levels.
Further moves in the yellow metal depend on the USD index and the sentiment in the US equity markets. Risk aversion in the equities due to weak retail sales could support yellow metal.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1193.2, above which gains could be extended to 1198.9. On the flip side, a break below the daily low at 1183.7 could push the prices lower to 1178.5.
Apr 14,2015
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USD/JPY remains comfortable within its long-held range – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, views that USD/JPY might continue to trade in its long-held range only to break higher and close the year at 125.
Key Quotes
“JPY continues to trade within its range, relatively quiet against the USD; however EURJPY has dropped to fresh lows weighed down by the weak EUR. There was no data today with the focus on the broader FX market moves.”
“Comments yesterday by PM Abe’s adviser, Koichi Hamada, that at current levels the yen is ‘considerably weak’ and that it is likely coming closer to its limit bit by bit, helped to stabilize the currency.”
“In the near‐term we expect USDJPY to continue to range trade before eventually pushing higher and closing the year at 125.”
“USDJPY short‐term technicals: mixed—USDJPY is trading with a range, making technicals less relevant than they are in a trending environment.”
“Support comes in at the recent low of 118.72, while resistance comes in at the recent high of 120.84.”
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EUR/USD approaches to 1.0700 as dollar slumps




FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD rose more than 100 pips over the last minutes and reached a 4-day high as on the top of disappointing US data, the IMF downgraded US growth outlook, weighing on the greenback.


While US retail sales grew less than expected (0.9% versus 1.1% exp) and NFIB business optimism index unexpectedly dropped in March (95.2 vs 98.4 exp), the IMF cut their US growth forecast for 2015 and 2016 to 3.1% versus 3.3% estimated in January.


The dollar fell sharply across the board, with EUR/USD climbing as high as 1.0691 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.0685, recording a 1.12% gain since opening.


EUR/USD levels to watch


Immediate resistances for EUR/USD are now seen at 1.0700 (psychological level), 1.0713 (Mar 31 low) and 1.0763 (10-day SMA). On the flip side, supports could be found at 1.0523 (Apr 13 low), 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0462 (12-year low Mar 13).











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AUD/USD consolidation expected – Growth Aces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing today’s Australian data release, the Growth Aces Research Team, further comment on the uncertainty of a rate cut in May by the RBA, and stay sideways on AUD/USD.
Key Quotes
“A measure of Australian consumer sentiment fell 3.2% mom and 3.5% yoy in April. The retreat unwound more of February's sharp 8.0% gain which followed a cut in interest rates early that month.”
“A measure of family finances compared to a year ago fell 7.4%, while the outlook for the next 12 months eased a relatively slim 0.7%. Despite all the anxiety, respondents still felt it was a good time to buy a major household item, with that index climbing 5.9% in April.”
“The AUD/USD opened Wednesday at 0.7626, but quickly fell below 0.7600 and is depreciating further. Part of the weakness came after the release of weaker measure of Australian consumer sentiment but China data were also not helping. Annual economic growth in China slowed, as expected, to a six-year low of 7% in the first quarter, while retail sales and industrial output undershot forecasts. Chinese retail sales rose 10.2% yoy vs. median forecast for a 10.9% yoy rise. Industrial output went up by 5.6% yoy vs. median forecast for a 6.9% yoy rise.”
“Investors slightly increased the risk of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May. However, in our opinion May rate cut is uncertain. That is why we see a risk of the relatively stronger AUD and stay sideways on the AUD/USD.”
“Resistance: 0.7678 (session high Apr 13), 0.7694 (21-dma), 0.7720 (high Apr 10)”
“Support: 0.7556 (low Apr 14), 0.7534 (low Apr 2), 0.7500 (psychological level)”
Apr 15,2015
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Major risk for euro lies in Draghi’s Q&A session, EUR/USD weakness expected – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities remain of the view that the major risk for the single currency lies in the Q&A session in the press conference, and further expect EUR/USD to move back to test the 1.05 area.
Key Quotes
“EURUSD rallied on ‘disappointing’ US retail sales data yesterday; the 0.9% m/m headline gain missed expectations and while not wholly bad, the weaker than expected outcome undermined hopes that the US economy was poised to bounce in Q2.”
“It’s still too early to judge that and the US economy does have history on its side in this respect (GDP growth has averaged a little over 0.6% in Q1 over the last five years but then gone on to record growth nearer 3% on average in each of the next three quarters).”
“We get an early look at April with the US Empire Survey; a positive an upside surprise in line with our expectations might lift the retail sales-driven gloom a little and support the USD but attention will quickly turn to the ECB press conference.”
“We assume [...] no major changes in President Draghi’s opening statement; the risk for the EUR really comes in the Q&A where we expect no concessions to the tapering talk; there have been some positive signs from the real economy (PMI data) but inflation remains uncomfortably low and we think President Draghi will stress full implementation of the QE programme, driving EURUSD back towards the 1.05 area at least.”
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QE will continue until sustained adjustment in inflation - Draghi
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi, in his press conference today, said the monthly QE program worth EUR 60 billion shall continue until the bank sees sustained adjustment in inflation.
On growth
Draghi said the Eurozone economy has gained momentum since the last quarter of 2014. Going further the economy is expected to improve further on account of a rise in domestic demand due to low rates, fiscal consolidation, and an increase in exports due to weaker Euro.Draghi also added that lower oil prices should continue to fuel private consumption and investment.
On Inflation
Draghi reiterated that the bank would monitor inflation closely, while stating that inflation may remain low in the short-term, although prices are expected to pick up later in 2015 and shall continue to move higher ahead. “ECB stimulus must be fully implemented to work”, said Draghi.
The press conference was halted for a brief moment after a woman protestor jumped on screen yelling “ECB Dictatorship”.
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USD/CAD likely to test 1.2600 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Dhwani Mehta, FXStreet Editor and Analyst, USD/CAD likely to test 1.2600 on a pessimistic BoC quarterly policy report.
Key Quotes
“Overall, USD/CAD is seen extending gains in the bullish flag pattern with upside capped by 5-DMA.The daily RSI at 49 aims higher and inches towards the bullish terrain indicating likelihood of further upside.”
“The pair is likely to test 1.2600 levels beyond a break of 5-DMA resistance at 1.2549 on pessimistic BOC quarterly monetary policy report.”
“However, if the report is viewed as optimistic than CAD bulls may take charge and the pair is likely to drop to 1.25 barrier, below which floors would open for a retest of channel trend line support at 1.2430.”
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USD/CAD collapses to 1-week low below 1.2450 after BoC
FXStreet (Tokyo) - The US dollar is trading under pressure and against the Canadian dollar it's posting fresh lows since April 8.
USD/CAD is trading down following the unchanged BoC rate decision and the not-that-dovish outlook for the months to come. The bank says that risks to inflation outlook 'are now roughly balanced'.
After falling 130 pips from 1.2570, the USD/CAD fell to break below 1.2450 and trade at lows of 1.2430. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2467, down 0.13% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2572 and low at 1.2441.
The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is strongly bullish.
USD/CAD levels
Below 1.2450, the pair will find supports at 1.2440, 1.2400 and 1.2385. To the upside, resistances are at 1.2480, 1.2500 and 1.2570.
Apr 15,2015
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Draghi tries to temper the ‘taper-tantrum’ – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Carsten Brzeski of ING, argues that although Draghi would have tried to temper the possibility of an early tapering by the ECB, the present fall in EUR and the expected rise in inflation implies it would be challenging for him to temper the speculations in the markets and within the ECB when the Eurozone recovery unfolds.
Key Quotes
“In the days leading to today’s meeting, some market participants had started to discuss the possibility of an early tapering, an end of QE earlier than the officially intended deadline of September 2016. One reason for this discussion is actually the success of QE which has pushed down the euro exchange rate.”
“At its current level, the weak euro would mechanically add another 0.4%-points to inflation, bringing headline inflation above 2% in 2017. This could already happen at the June meeting, when the ECB will present the next staff projections.”
“During the press conference, Draghi tried everything he could to temper the taper discussion. According to Draghi, the tapering discussion was premature. And we totally agree with him. Draghi did not get tired of repeating that the full implementation of QE was required to “provide the necessary support to the euro area recovery”.”
“Moreover, a new sentence in the ECB’s introductory statement clearly tried to temper tapering phantasies: “When carrying out its assessment, the Governing Council will follow its monetary policy strategy and concentrate on trends in inflation, looking through unexpected outcomes in measured inflation in either direction if judged to be transient and to have no implication for the medium-term outlook for price stability”.”
“In our view, this sentence is just ECB language for saying that the ECB can do whatever it wants and use whatever indicator it wants to use to determine the end of QE.”
“All in all, ECB president Draghi clearly tried to temper any taper discussion. Whether he will succeed, is uncertain.”
“If the recovery really unfolds and inflation forecasts start to pick up, Draghi will not only have to temper taper speculations in the market but, even more challenging, within the ECB itself.”
Apr 15,2015
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AUD/USD still persists the consolidation in 0.75-0.78 – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Sean Callow, Strategist at Westpac, sees the pair keeping the 0.75-0.78 range in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“Last week we suggested AUD/USD would find buyers under 0.7600 but struggle above 0.7800”.
“This outlook is broadly intact, after the Aussie recovered from the dismal China trade data to avoid a break of 0.7500”.
“China’s weak IP growth momentum on Wed was largely brushed aside while iron ore prices have at least become more two-way”.
“The strong Mar jobs data could help fuel the first probe above 0.7800 since late last month”.
“But with CPI likely to be muted and the RBA still set to revise down its growth forecasts in May, domestic headwinds remain strong”.
“The broad range remains 0.75-0.78, with the pair drifting from the upper end of the range to lower over the week”.
Apr 16,2015
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AUD/USD still persists the consolidation in 0.75-0.78 – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Sean Callow, Strategist at Westpac, sees the pair keeping the 0.75-0.78 range in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“Last week we suggested AUD/USD would find buyers under 0.7600 but struggle above 0.7800”.
“This outlook is broadly intact, after the Aussie recovered from the dismal China trade data to avoid a break of 0.7500”.
“China’s weak IP growth momentum on Wed was largely brushed aside while iron ore prices have at least become more two-way”.
“The strong Mar jobs data could help fuel the first probe above 0.7800 since late last month”.
“But with CPI likely to be muted and the RBA still set to revise down its growth forecasts in May, domestic headwinds remain strong”.
“The broad range remains 0.75-0.78, with the pair drifting from the upper end of the range to lower over the week”.
Apr 16,2015
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USD/CAD dips below 1.2230
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar extends the drop vs. its Canadian counterpart on Thursday, sending USD/CAD to lows near 1.2230.
USD/CAD in multi-week lows
The pair is trading in levels last seen in late January around 1.2230, against the backdrop of increasing USD-weakness after Building Permits, Housing Starts and Initial Claims missed consensus today.
In the opinion of strategists at TD Securities, “The USD is overbought and over-loved, making it vulnerable to violent shakeouts on negative data surprises. Indeed, short-term correlation studies indicate that the relationship between DXY and data surprises has tightened in recent weeks. As such, every data release could become magnified”.
USD/CAD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is losing 0.56% at 1.2222 and a breakdown of 1.2100 (psychological level) would aim for 1.2062 (high Jan.19) and then 1.1940 (low Jan.20). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.2350 (38.2% of 1.1565-1.2835) ahead of 1.2353 (low Feb.3) and finally 1.2400 (psychological level).
Apr 16,2015
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USD/CAD pierced 1.2100 on data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar is advancing further on Thursday, sending USD/CAD to briefly test sub-1.2100 levels.
USD/CAD in multi-week lows
Spot is trading in levels last seen in late January after Canadian Retail Sales surprised investors to the upside in February, expanding 1.7% MoM and 2.0% MoM excluding Autos. Canadian consumer prices followed suit, rising at an annual pace of 1.2% while the BoC Core print rose 2.4% on a yearly basis.
In the US calendar, headline CPI contracted 0.1% on a year to March, while Core prices surpassed expectations rising 1.8% YoY. Next on tap will be the CB Leading Indicator and the preliminary gauge of the Reuters/Michigan index.
USD/CAD significant levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.55% at 1.2122 and a breakdown of 1.2085 (low Apr.17) would aim for 1.2062 (high Jan.19) and then 1.1940 (low Jan.20). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.2250 (high Apr.17) ahead of 1.2350 (38.2% of 1.1565-1.2835) and then 1.2353 (low Feb.3).
Apr 17,2015
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EUR/USD dips to lows near 1.0730
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now losing its shine, dragging EUR/USD to challenge session lows in the 1.0730 region.
EUR/USD weaker after US data
The pair shed over a big-figure from session peaks in the mid-1.0800s following the better-than-expected CPI data in the US economy during March, giving at the same time the beleaguered dollar a relieving dose of oxygen.
In the broader picture, the pair keeps ignoring the worrisome prospects from the Greek economy in light of the slew of repayments due in May and the worrying silence emanating from the Greek officials.
EUR/USD key levels
The pair is now retreating 0.04% at 1.0757 with the immediate support at 1.0613 (100-h MA) would open the door to 1.0571 (low Apr.15) and finally 1.0532 (low Apr.14). On the flip side, a break above 1.0842 (high Apr.17) would open the door to 1.0887 (high Apr.8) and then 1.0947 (high Apr.7).
Apr 17,2015
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Central banks take action for a possible Greek contagion – TradeTheNews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TradeTheNews Team comments on the key developments surrounding Greece, noting that Greece banking units overseas have been asked to exit any Greek sovereign debt.
Key Quotes
“Greece banking units overseas said to have been asked to exit Greek sovereign debt. Central banks in southeastern European countries (in cooperation with the ECB) had given the instructions. The order relates to Greek government bonds and T-bills and also relates to deposits in parent Greek banks and loans to lenders based in Greece. The move by the central banks was aimed at supporting their national banking systems if there was a Greek accident or contagion.”
Apr 17,2015
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Treasury yields diverge from German Bund yields



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields on the short duration and long duration treasury yields in the US rose on Monday, contradicting the weakness seen in the German bond yields.


The 10-year yield in the US rose 3.1 basis points to 1.881%, while the 10-year yield in Germany is trading moderately weak 0.076%. Moreover, the German benchmark yield hit a low of 0.0419% on Friday, while the 10-year yield in the US rose after the data in the US showed an uptick in the core inflation in March.


Meanwhile, the uncertainty in Greece has German Bunds outdo Treasuries as favored safe haven assets, since they make up the biggest component of the ECB’s 1.1 trillion euro ($1.2 trillion) regional bond-buying program launched in the last month.









Apr 20,2015

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Japan leaves economic assessment unchanged, going short on USD/JPY – Growth Aces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team comments on the key developments in the Japanese market, and further maintains a bearish outlook on USD/JPY, targeting 117.20 levels.
Key Quotes
“Japan's government kept its overall assessment of the economy unchanged on Monday, noting a moderate recovery trend as factory output is picking up on the back of improving corporate activity. In its monthly economic report, the government also kept unchanged its assessment of consumer spending, capital expenditure and exports, as the economy stabilises after a recession unexpectedly caused by a sales tax hike last April.”
“The report comes ahead of a closely watched Bank of Japan meeting on April 30 where the central bank will update its forecasts for consumer prices and inflation.”
“Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Sunday that financial markets could be surprised if the central bank hits its 2% inflation target in 2016 and interest rates in Japan start to rise as a result.”
“Kuroda said the BOJ expects inflation in Japan to gradually accelerate later this year as the impact of lower oil prices becomes less of a factor in the data.”
“The monthly Tankan survey showed that confidence among Japanese manufacturers slid for the first time in three months in April. Sentiment index for manufacturers fell to 12 in April from 16 in the prior month. However, the service-sector index rose to 25 from 21 in March, led by sectors such as retailers, real estate, construction and information, communications.”
“We are looking to go short on the USD/JPY at 119.35. If the order is filled, the target will be 117.20.”
“Resistance: 119.26 (high Apr 17), 119.48 (high Apr 16), 119.62 (21-dma)”
“Support: 118.53 (session low Apr 20), 118.33 (low Mar 26), 118.30 (low Feb 20)”
Apr 20,2015
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USD/JPY extends gains above 119.00
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY gained momentum during the American session and broke above 119.15. The pair printed a fresh daily high at 119.35, hitting the highest level since last Thursday.
The pair is rising for the first time after posting losses during the previous six trading days. The US dollar was able to make a reversal after falling earlier to 118.52 (3-week low). From the lows it has risen 80 pips as stocks in Wall Street rise more than 1% on average.
USD/JPY near important short term resistance
The recent rally brought the pair near the 119.40 area, that is an important short term resistance, that capped the upside several times last week. Above here the next resistance could be located at 119.70 (Apr 13 low) and 120.00. On the opposite direction support might lie at 118.75, 118.55 (daily low) and 118.30/35 (March 26 low).
Apr 20,2015
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EUR/GBP: Stalling through the pivot on 0.72 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/GBP is currently trading at 0.7216 with a high of 0.7245 and a low of 0.7185.
EUR/GBP has seen some two way traffic but has been overall better bid and scoring the high recently having worked its way out of bearish territory on the 0.71 handle and now through the pivot on the 0.72 handle. The euro is resilient and has performed gains across the board at the start of the week while the calendar is relatively quiet up ahead for the EZ. From the UK this week, however, we have BoE Minutes on Wednesday, Retail Sales on Thursday, and the Election Campaign that is ongoing.
Technically,Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank suggests that only if a rise and daily chart close above the 0.7408 January low were to be made, there could be room for further upside towards the 0.7500 region to be seen. "Currently we view the low at 0.7015 as an interim low and look for some stabilisation and recovery short term."
Apr 20,2015
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USD/JPY: Gains capped by weak Treasury yields
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD/JPY pair has pared gains to trade at 119.34 levels, after having hit a high of 119.78 levels. The weakness in the US treasury yields is supporting the Japanese Yen.
Yen gains as 10-year treasury yield falls
The 10-year yield in the US fell three basis points to 1.867%, while the 30-year yield declined more than three basis points to 2.538%. Consequently, the Japanese Yen, which tracks Treasury prices, recovered losses against the USD.
Moreover, the safe haven assets are showing signs of strength ahead of the US session on concerns over the lack of an agreement on economic reforms for bailout funds between Greece and its creditors. The pair could extend the drop if the treasury yields continue to slide ahead in the data.
USD/JPY Technical Levels
The immediate support is located at 119.26 (100-DMA), under which losses could be extended to the previous session’s low of 118.52. On the flip side, a break above 119.42 (5-DMA) could drive the pair higher to its 50-DMA located at 119.91.
Apr 21,2015
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EUR/HUF back to lows near 297.00
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Hungarian forint is now depreciating further vs. the single currency on Tuesday, dragging EUR/HUF to re-visit session lows near 297.00.
EUR/HUF weaker post-NBH
The cross saw its downside renewed after the NBH surprised markets by lowering its refi rate to 1.80% from 1.95% in today’s meeting. Recall that market consensus was expecting the central bank to remain on hold.
The cross is retreating for the second consecutive session so far, trading in 5-day lows near the 297.00 handle.
EUR/HUF key levels
At the moment the cross is losing 0.27% at 297.25 with the next support at 296.74 (low Jan.2 2014) ahead of 295.29 (low Apr.15) and then 295.17 (low Dec.31 2013). On the upside, a break above 300.49 (high Apr.6) would expose 301.98 (high Apr.20) and finally 302.64 (high Apr.17).
Apr 21,2015
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Grexit risk being priced in – MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at MarketPulse, comments that markets believe the ECB is preparing to subtly apply further pressure on Greece banks, while on the other side a Grexit risk is being priced in as uncertainty related to a EU-Greece agreement increases.
Key Quotes
“Interested parties are trying to get Greece to conform to creditors demands. There are currently two avenues of pressures on Greece to force them into fulfilling said demands. There is firstly via the banking system, and second via the liquidity situation of the government. By the latter, the Greek government has more control. The markets saw that yesterday when the Greek government issued various decrees for local government cash balance to be deposited in the Central Bank for government use.”
“It’s the funding of the banking system that Greece has no control over. That’s dependent on the ECB’s role as “lender of last resort” through the use of ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance).”
“The market now believes that ECB staff is preparing a proposal to subtly apply further pressure. They could do this by increasing haircuts on Greek bank collateral offered for ELA.”
“The Eurogroup require a Greek reaction, as a member they are required to fulfill all protocols and not just back away from responsibility. Applying subtle pressure hopefully will garner a positive reaction. To date it has not and time is running out as the uncertainty over how Greece and its creditors will come to an agreement has led the market to continue to price in a rising risk of Grexit.”
“The Greek yield curve continues to invert (short yields rise faster than long would suggest default).”
“The question and answer yet to be discussed in detail is if a default and exit does become a reality, will the ECB’s QE limit contagion?”
Apr 21,2015
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EUR/USD struggling to regain 1.0700 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - EUR/USD has recovered from the daily low at 1.0659, but requires a break above 1.0715 to confirm additional gains, explains Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet.
Key Quotes
“The EUR/USD pair recovered from a daily low set at 1.0659 in the European morning, following market comments about the ECB studying a way to limit financial aid to Greece.”
“In Germany, the ZEW survey for April showed that the local Economic Sentiment fell for the first time since October 2014, down to 53.3 from previous 54.8. In the EZ however, Economic Sentiment improved above expected in the same month. There are no relevant fundamental readings scheduled for the US, with the market then probably continue trading on sentiment.”
“Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price stands below the 38.2% retracement of its latest bearish run at 1.0715, the immediate resistance, whilst the 20 SMA heads lower around it. In the same chart, the technical indicators are bouncing from their oversold levels but remain below their mid-lines, which suggest some follow through above the mentioned level is required to confirm additional advances.”
“In the 4 hours chart the Momentum indicator heads lower below 100 whilst RSI indicator stands flat around 48.”
“Support levels: 1.0680 1.0640 1.0590”
“Resistance levels: 1.0715 1.0745 1.0775”
Apr 21,2015
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GBP/USD looking bearish – Varengold
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Varengold Bank Research Team gives the technical outlook for GBP/USD using daily charts.
Key Quotes
“.. the GBPUSD has reached a significant resistance, after seven days of gains in a row. This level coincides with the top side of an uptrend channel in the RSI, anticipating a bearish movement, where the previous lows seem the support to take into consideration. Above the current price, the mentioned 1.4980 resistance looks tough to be broken at first.”
“Support Levels around 1.4568”
“Resistance Levels around 1.4980”
Apr 21,2015
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Greece crisis: Riga summit expected to be a non-event – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Team comments on the recent developments concerning Greece, and further notes that this week’s Eurogroup summit is likely to be a non-event in delivering a EU-Greece agreement.
Key Quotes
“Headlines confirmed our suspicions that the market and Greek leaders have been too complacent in thinking the ECB would continue to provide ELA funding uninterrupted. There is reportedly an increasing minority of ECB Governors opposed to Greek ELA, and while it requires a two-thirds vote to turn it off, the staff has now prepared various options for increasing the haircuts on ELA lending.”
“With the Greek government backtracking on pension and public sector employment reform yesterday, it still seems this week’s Summit in Riga will be a non-event in delivering a deal and May 11-12 is now set as the potential make-or-break deadline with the next Eurogroup and IMF repayment due then.”
Apr 21,2015
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Greek default without ‘Grexit’ would be too negative for EUR – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes of Societe Generale shares the key developments surrounding Greece – default risks, Grexit talks and the possible impact on the single currency.
Key Quotes
“The Greek crisis was ignored by the FX market last week as peripheral spreads widened and the Euro rallied. This morning, it's the reason for the Euro to be softer and the dollar to be rallying again.”
“The reasons given for day-to-day gyrations of EUR/USD within its broad 1.0450-1.1050 range need to be taken with a pinch of salt but....a Greek default without ‘Grexit', might be the single most negative outcome for the Euro, and ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio, pointedly observed that default doesn't automatically imply exit.”
“Meanwhile, as the government scrambles around for cash, there is much talk of Greece introducing a parallel currency.”
Apr 21,2015
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USD/CHF approaches 0.9500
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF reversed during the European session and turned to the downside. After the beginning of trading in Wall Street accelerated the decline and printed a fresh daily low at 0.9524.
USD/CHF near key support
The pair remains with a bearish tone, trading near Monday and last week lows. Last Friday and yesterday the area around 0.9490 - 0.9500 capped the decline and has become a key short term support area. A break lower could open the doors for a slide toward the next potential support level located around 0.9480 (April 3 low) followed by 0.9450 (Feb 26, 27 low).
On the opposite direction, resistance levels could lie at 0.9600, 0.9625 (daily high) and 0.9670 (Apr 14 low and Apr 7 high).
Apr 21,2015
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EUR/GBP points to 0.71-0.73 range – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to strategists at Westpac, the European cross could range bound between 0.71 and 0.73 in the near term.
Key Quotes
“EUR/GBP likely to flatline for more weeks yet, torn between bearish forces such as ongoing ECB QE and Greek worries on the one hand and bullish forces on the other side of the ledger, most notably the very real risk of an inconclusive UK general election result in just over two weeks”.
“EUR/GBP looks like a 0.71-0.73 trade for now”.
“The model is neutral GBP here after running with moderate sized shorts for a couple months”.
“Our growth and valuation signals are constructive GBP but yield and a poor external balance signal remain problematic for GBP”.
“Last week’s impulsive upward reversal coincides with a MT momentum failure at recent multi-year lows. While the downtrend is yet to break, this is a significant warning”.
Apr 22,2015
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USD/CAD found support at 1.2210
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar is now shedding part of the initial gains vs. the greenback, pushing USD/CAD back to the 1.2235/40 band.
USD/CAD eyes on the US docket
Spot found some support in the 1.2210 area during the European morning, ahead of the US data releases due later: Existing Home Sales (5.05 M exp. in March), Housing Price Index (0.7% Feb) and the weekly report on crude oil inventories by EIA, expected to increase by 2.375 million barrels in the week ended on April 17th.
After bottoming out in fresh multi-month lows just below the 1.2100 handle last week, the pair gained steam and recovered the 1.2200 mark and beyond, although gains seem to be limited by yesterday’s tops near 1.2300.
USD/CAD significant levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.30% at 1.2244 and a breach of 1.2215 (low Apr.21) would expose 1.2180 (low Apr.20) and finally 1.2100 (psychological level). On the other hand, the immediate resistance aligns at 1.2296 (high Apr.21) followed by 1.2300 (psychological level) and then 1.2328 (high Apr.16).
Apr 22,2015
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Germany: still the main beneficiaries of ECB’s QE – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Carsten Brzeski of ING, sees the recent ZEW index release as a confirmation for their outlook for German economy, with ECB’s QE and fundamentals expected to power the economy ahead.
Key Quotes
“Yesterday’s ZEW index had something for everyone, both pessimists and optimists. At face value, the drop in the headline figure to 53.3, from 54.8 in March, could be regarded as a sign of caution and maybe even new uncertainty stemming from the Greek crisis. At second glance, however, it is very hard to find any sense of pessimism in yesterday’s ZEW reading.”
“In fact, the current assessment component of the ZEW index reached its highest level since July 2011. With the strong increase, it does not really come as a surprise that the headline index saw a small decline. In fact, when it comes to the ZEW index, everything is relative.”
“As the starting position is much stronger than in March, the small drop in the headline figure is another sign of optimism, rather than new pessimism.”
“Moreover, judging from the combination of the current assessment component and the outlook, the ZEW index has never ever painted a rosier scenario for the German economy than yesterday.”
“Over the last two years, the ZEW index has returned as an interesting and more reliable indicator for future economic growth. While between 2010 and 2012, the fundamental and structural strength of the German economy prevailed, it is now cyclical factors like dropping oil prices, a weakening euro and the ECB’s QE, which are the most important growth drivers.”
“Against this background, ZEW index confirms our positive take on the German economy. As a main beneficiary of the ECB’s QE programme, supported by sound domestic fundamentals, the German economy should power ahead.”
“Only the benign neglect of the possible fallout of the – once again – escalating Greek crisis calls for caution. The situation is clearly more dangerous and volatile than financial market participants seem to believe.”
Apr 22,2015
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Credit Suisse: Positioning for Greece and price of uncertainty on the euro – eFXnews




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Strategy team at Credit Suisse, shares the possible trade setups for EUR/USD for different scenarios of Greece risks and euro uncertainty, as noted by eFXnews.


Key Quotes


“It is probably not true that the EUR has ignored Greek risks. Without needing to price in this issue, EUR would likely have lower implied volatility, less skew in favor of EUR puts and arguably a higher spot price. EURUSD might be challenging the top of its recent roughly 1.0450 – 1.1050 range rather than languishing near the middle.”


“Market participants who think Greek risks can subside within three months should be looking at the possibility of a meaningful EUR pop higher over that time frame.”


“Market participants who like us think the underlying trend in EUR is lower across the board due to negative euro area core rates – but also think Greek risks can diminish in the next three months – should look to exploit the skew surface by buying EUR put spreads or EUR puts with reverse knock outs (RKOs). We have introduced both varieties into our trade idea portfolios in the past two weeks.”


“Market players looking for a default outcome in Greece in the next three months should be aware that to some extent this is already in the price. Of course both implied volatility and skew in EUR can rise further, much as Greek bond yields and European equities implied volatility can too. But it is hard to argue that out-of-the-money EUR puts are a uniquely cheap way of playing for this outcome.”


This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.











Apr 22,2015

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US March existing home sales rise strongly - is the soft patch over? – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the US March existing home sales data, Rob Carnell of ING, comments that it won’t be wise to declare this as an end to the soft patch of the US economy, but a stronger USD and higher yields might be expected from here.
Key Quotes
“US existing home sales for March rose to a 5.19m annual rate, a good deal above the 5.03m expected and one of the strongest results this side of the financial crisis (November 2009 saw a 5.44m rate, and July 2013 a 5.31m rate). Whilst this is noisy data, with the volatile condo segment growing at an 11.1% rate against a still strong 6.1% rise in single family homes, this was still a decent result.”
“But with housing transactions a slow moving part of the economy, it is probably not wise to declare the US soft-patch over just yet, though there were also some encouraging increases in median house prices, which should help to support consumer confidence and spending in the coming months.”
“That said, with next week’s FOMC meeting closing in, and limited additional data in advance of this, we see little likelihood that this result is enough to warrant a hint at a policy change in June from the accompanying April FOMC text.”
“The market response to this data should be a stronger USD and higher bond yields and implied Fed rates. But with this result fairly marginal for the Fed decision, we don’t think any market response will be substantial, or necessarily long-lived.”
Apr 22,2015
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EUR/GBP drops to 1-month lows
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP weakened after the release of the Bank of England minutes and accelerated the decline after the Swiss National Bank reduced exemptions on negative rates. The pair bottomed at 0.7120, level last seen in March 17.
EUR/GBP breaks key support
Earlier it traded above 0.7200 momentarily but failed to hold, lost momentum and weakened sharply after breaking the 0.7160/70 support area, that capped the decline during the last five trading days.
From the lows, EUR/GBP bounced slightly to the upside and currently trades at 0.7140, down 50 pips from yesterday's closing price. The euro is having the worst day against the pound and is approaching 2015 lows that lie at 0.7014.
Apr 22,2015
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EUR/JPY no longer a barometer of risk-on/risk-off sentiment - FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - There has been a shift in the characteristics of EUR/JPY as a currency which reflected risk-on/risk-off sentiments, largely due to the transition in EUR from a growth to a funding currency, explains Omkar Godbole, FXStreet Editor and Analyst.
Key Quotes
“EUR is a funding currency, but not a safe haven – The Euro is no longer a growth currency. With the Refi rate at 0.05% and the deposit rate at -0.20% it is now a funding currency.”
“The ECB’s QE led drop in German long term bond yields to near zero levels means the investors have to look out for other high yielding assets outside the Eurozone. This is nothing but Draghi’s portfolio adjustment effect. However, the search for yield is high during risk-on rallies. Hence, the EUR is likely to be sold now during risk-on rallies in the markets.”
“However, that does not mean the shared currency would be preferred in times of risk-off rallies. Though a funding currency, it is still not a safe haven asset.”
“With Greece issue and debt problems the currency is likely to be a last resort - below Treasuries, Gold, Japanese Yen and Swiss franc in times of risk-off.”
“Consequently, the pair does not represent a risk-on/risk-off as accurately as it did earlier.… the strong direct correlation does not exist now.”
Apr 22,2015
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AUD/NZD: an attractive sell opportunity – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Reviewing the key developments in New Zealand in the Asian session, FX Strategists at TD Securities believe that the sudden spike in AUD/NZD after increasing expectations of a rate cut in NZ gives an attractive sell opportunity for parity.
Key Quotes
“The RBNZ’s McDermott—a known inflation hawk—delivered a speech on “The Dragon Slain? Near-zero inflation in New Zealand”. He noted that “there is little monetary policy can do to influence inflation outturns in the near-term” and that even with inflation sitting at 0.1% y/y, the inflation dragon is “merely sleeping”.”
“And, despite noting the strong positives that underpin the economy (strong employment, construction, etc.) and that the current level of policy is stimulative, the market latched onto the reference that signs of weakening demand and domestic inflationary pressure would prompt them to “consider lowering rates” undermined the NZD versus the USD and on the crosses. AUDNZD leapt to the 1.02 figure after trading sub-1.01 levels barely two trading sessions earlier.”
“Even if the RBNZ plans to cut (which is not our base case), it is unlikely they would do so imminently (their next meeting is on June 11th) and with the RBA meeting on May 5th—where we expect a cut—we think current price action in AUDNZD has offered up an attractive entry level to get short and look for this cross to push towards parity.”
Apr 23,2015
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GBP/USD hits fresh daily highs above 1.5050
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD rose 70 pips in less than an hour and printed a fresh daily high at 1.5057, erasing previous losses.
GBP/USD benefits from a weak dollar
Greenback weakened in the forex market and pushed the pair to the upside. Cable was trading around 1.4990 and jumped, rising quickly to 1.5050. Currently trades at 1.5045, slightly higher for the day and far from the lows.
The pair was able to erase losses and strengthened after a weak start of the day. Following the retail sales report in the United Kingdom, that missed expectations showing a decline of 0.5% in March, GBP/USD dropped to 1.4960. Later, disappointing US economic data, an increase in jobless claims, a decline in new home sales and a drop in the Markit PMI (preliminary), motivated traders to sell the US dollar.
Apr 23,2015
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USD/JPY drops to fresh daily lows
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY fell sharply as the dollar weakened broadly during the New York session following a string of disappointing US data.
US housing starts slumped 11.4% in March, pulling back from a 7-year high, while a gauge of manufacturing activity by Markit and initial jobless claims came in below expectations. The dollar was initially resilient but then surrendered and fell to fresh lows versus most competitors.
USD/JPY technical levels
USD/JPY pulled back from the 120.00 area and hit a low of 119.58. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.65, 0.23% below its opening price. On the downside, immediate supports are seen at 119.58 (daily low) and 119.43 (100- & 200-hour SMA), while resistances could be found at 120.08 (daily high) and 120.83 (Apr 13 high).
Apr 23,2015
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EUR/USD drops to 1.0820 on Eurogroup
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now giving away earlier gains on Friday, dragging EUR/USD back to the 1.0825/20 band.
EUR/USD now looks to Eurogroup presser
The pair has already faded the most of the earlier spike to the 1.0900 neighbourhood following initial clues that the tone at the Eurogroup meeting between Greece and its EU creditors was far from friendly.
From the Eurogroup’s press conference, EU’s P.Moscovici remarked that ‘time is running out’ for Greece while J.Dijsselbloem emphasized that there are still important differences between the parties involved, and he instigated Greece to submit a ‘comprehensive list of reforms’.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is gaining 0.01% at 1.0825 with the next hurdle at 1.0901 (high Apr.24) ahead of 1.0914 (76.4% of 1.1036-1.0521) and then 1.0955 (high Apr.7). On the downside, a breach of 1.0769 (21-d MA) would open the door to 1.0730 (10-d MA) and finally 1.0666 (low Apr.23).
Apr 24,2015
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EUR/GBP dips to fresh lows near 0.7150
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The shared currency got smashed by the British pound in the mid-European session; knocking-off EUR/GBP to fresh session lows, after the ongoing Euro group meeting which provided fresh insights on Greece reforms with EU leaders seeing little progress on the same.
EUR/GBP drops from 0.7180
Currently, the EUR/GBP cross tumbled to fresh session lows at 0.7154, moving away from 0.72 barrier. The cross in EUR/GBP dived deeper in red with euro getting hammered across the board amid latest updates from Euro group meeting.
The news that Greece had still not prepared a comprehensive reforms list, while the time for reaching a deal is running out and there is little progress, which may eventually lead to a Grexit weighed on the shared currency. On the other hand, the pound remains heavily bid against the US dollar, holding on to 1.51 handle.
EUR/GBP Levels to consider
To the upside, the next resistance is located at 0.7212 (Today’s High) and above which it could extend gains to at 0.7248 (April 20 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 0.7114 (April 23 Low) levels below that at 0.7080 levels.
Apr 24,2015
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USD/JPY cautious circa 119.50, US data in focus
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US dollar trades around a flat line versus the yen, keeping USD/JPY in the same range near119.50 levels, largely on the back of rising treasury yields which boosted USD bulls while markets now turn their focus towards today’s US durable goods data for further direction.
USD/JPY awaits key US data
Currently, the USD/JPY pair trades flat at 119.53, revolving around the midpoint of 119 handle. The USD/JPY continues to tread water and recovered from lows as traders anticipate a rebound in the US durables goods orders after a drop previously which may provide impetus to the greenback.
The US dollar index which measures the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies turns positive and now trades at 97.47, retreating from 96.93 lows.
Meanwhile, durable goods orders from the US are likely to attract traders as the key data may provide fresh take on dollar moves. A gain of 0.6% is expected for March durable goods orders, a recovery from the huge 1.4% fall posted in Feb, while they are forecast to rise 0.3% when measured excluding transport.
USD/JPY Technical Levels
To the upside, the next resistance is located at 120 (50-DMA) levels and above which it could extend gains 120.45 (April 7 High) levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 119.14 (April 22 Low) below that at 118.77 (April 16 Low) levels.
Apr 24,2015
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GBP/USD off highs near 1.5120
FXStreet (Mumbai) - GBP/USD trimmed gains and inched back closer towards 1.51 handle, deflating from highs near 1.5150 – psychological figure, largely on the back of a major pull back seen in the US dollar across the board erasing previous losses ahead of release of a set of major US economic data.
US data awaited
The GBP/USD pair trades 0.43% higher at 1.5120, retreating from fresh 5-week highs at 1.5146. The GBP/USD pared some gains as the US dollar managed to fight its way back against its major peers, wiping out entire losses ahead of US open.
The US dollar index which measures the relative strength of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies recovered losses and now trades muted at 97.43, awaiting fresh incentives.
Meanwhile, traders now turn their focus towards US economic releases including the major durable goods orders data amid a data dry GBP calendar, for further momentum on the pair. While Greece updates are closely monitored.
GBP/USD Levels to consider
The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5196 (Feb 3 High) above which gains could be extended to 1.5250 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5028 (Today’s Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.5000 levels.
Apr 24,2015
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EUR/UD advances to 1.0870 post-US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has resumed its intraday upside following the releases in the US docket on Friday, currently testing the 1.0870 area.
EUR/USD firmer on data
The pair accelerated the rebound after US Durable Goods Orders surpassed estimates during March, expanding at a monthly pace of 4.0%, leaving behind forecasts for a 0.6% advance and reverting February’s 1.4% drop. Excluding the Transportation sector, orders contracted 0.2% MoM, missing estimates for a 0.3% gain.
That was all from the data front on Friday, with market participants are still digesting the recent Eurogroup results and gauging the future steps of Greece ahead of the late-June deadline.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is gaining 0.42% at 1.0869 with the next hurdle at 1.0901 (high Apr.24) ahead of 1.0914 (76.4% of 1.1036-1.0521) and then 1.0955 (high Apr.7). On the downside, a breach of 1.0769 (21-d MA) would open the door to 1.0730 (10-d MA) and finally 1.0666 (low Apr.23).
Apr 24,2015
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BoJ to keep policy unchanged in its April meeting – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to BofA-Merrill Lynch, BoJ will likely keep its policy unchanged in its 30th April meeting, and lower the FY15 price outlook.
Key Quotes
“We expect the BoJ to leave policy unchanged at its Monetary Policy Board meeting on 30 April. Although it is likely to lower the FY15 price outlook in its Outlook report set for release the same day, we expect its outlook for inflation to start rising in the fall and reach 2% in FY16 to remain unchanged.”
“Its decision to expand QQE last October was a surprise, but Governor Kuroda said at a press conference on 8 April that, unlike in October 2014, he currently sees little risk of deflation returning, and we do not think the situation has changed radically in a short time.”
“If the BoJ did announce another surprise easing, it would probably cause the market to question the credibility of its statements.”
“The BoJ will be forced into a more cautious monetary policy if prices do not rise in accordance with its outlook. At this stage, it will probably stick with its current QE formula built on expanding its balance sheet, but if it does opt for additional easing, given that it will be difficult for it to significantly increase the quantity of its JGB purchases and that any further declines in already low JGB yields would likely have limited impact, we think that rather than pursue greater quantity the BoJ is more likely to strengthen qualitatively, such as by lengthening the maturities of the JGBs it purchases, increasing its ETF purchases, and buying new types of financial assets.”
Apr 24,2015
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Actual oil production might be higher than reported in the EIA data – KBC





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team comments on the mismatch between weekly crude inventory estimates from the EIA and the actual figures from Petroleum Supply Monthly report, warning that the actual oil production might be higher than reported.


Key Quotes


“Crude inventories surprised significantly to the upside while gasoline stocks again fell quite sharply as the refinery utilization declined (it however remains relatively high in comparison with previous years). A bullish reaction to the release may be partially explained by a relatively sharp decline of domestic crude oil production.”


“Rather than “hard data”, this category however contains model estimates of the production. The actual oil production may thus eventually prove to be different than that indicated by weekly data.”


“In fact, over the past couple of months, the difference between first estimates contained in the Weekly petroleum status report and more accurate figures from Petroleum Supply Monthly report has been permanently negative. In other words, the actual oil production could in fact be higher than indicated by weekly production data.”







Apr 24,2015

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US service sector growth rate in April eased from seven month high
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The flash US Markit services Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) came-in at 57.8, missing the estimate of 59.00. The PMI in February stands at 59.2.
The details reveal a strong increase in new work received by service providers, but the rate of expansion also eased since March. The service sector also witnessed a rise in employment, with the latest increase in payroll numbers was the steepest since June 2014.
Meanwhile, the latest increase in overall input prices was the most marked for six months, although input costs were subdued in comparison to the long-term average taken since 2009. The uptick in the input also translated into higher service charges. Moreover, the latest rise in average tariffs was the sharpest since September 2014.
As per Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, “The service sector enjoyed strong growth at the start of the second quarter, adding to evidence that the economy remains in good health. Although the pace of expansion slowed compared to March, April saw the second-largest rise in business activity for seven months. The improvement in second quarter economic growth, rising price pressures and strong job creation signalled by the PMI surveys adds to pressure on the FOMC to consider starting the process of normalising monetary policy sooner rather than later at its meeting later this week.”
Apr 27,2015
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JPY is flat, ignoring Fitch’s downgrade on fiscal concerns – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, shares that USD/JPY trades within its Friday’s range, unaffected by the rating downgrade from Fitch.
Key Quotes
“JPY is soft, but is entering the NA session within Friday’s range and right at the 100‐day MA (119.27).”
“Fitch downgraded Japan to A/stable outlook but there was limited market reaction, partially because of the high percentage of domestically held debt. The details behind the downgrade include: 1) a lack of structural fiscal measures in the budget to replace the deferred consumption tax increase; 2) the cutting of corporate tax and increase in spending; 3) an increased degree of uncertainty over the government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation.”
“Fundamental data today was limited, with the highlights this week from the BoJ meeting and slew of data, including inflation.”
Apr 27,2015
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FOMC Meeting: Fed rates dilemma, to be ‘june’ or not to be ‘june’? – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell, Chief International Economist at ING, explains that the real problem for the Fed at this FOMC meeting will be whether to rule out a June hike or not, with markets currently pricing in a September fed rate hike.
Key Quotes
“We see the real problem for the Fed this time being that they cannot reasonably rule out a June hike at this meeting, even if it looks unlikely. But this leaves them with yet another textual problem for the statement. At the March meeting, the Fed dropped its reference to “patient”, but then ruled out an April rate hike saying. “Consistent with its previous statement, the Committee judges that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April FOMC meeting”
“This now looks like it was an unnecessary precaution to prevent markets rushing to price in an April hike. But it also means that if they want to leave their options open, and do not repeat the same process by ruling out a hike in June (which would seem odd given how much the economic story may change between now and then), then there may well be a market swing back towards a more imminent hike.”
“Financial markets currently price in a rate hike at the September meeting (20bp average effective Fed funds for September, with rate decision on the 17th and current effective Fed funds of about 11bp), so this could see markets pricing in an earlier hike (July?), with consequent upwards pressure on the yield curve from 30 days to 2 years, and upwards pressure on the USD.”
“The longer end of the yield curve is harder to call, since this will be jointly determined by the response of the stock market, and this might well see yields fall if stocks respond badly.”
“What actually happens in June remains a mystery that only the run of data in the coming weeks will eventually reveal. But the short-term response to leaving June in play at this week’s statement might cause markets to rethink their recent pessimism.”
Apr 27,2015
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United States Redbook index (YoY): 1.4% (April 24) vs 0.8%
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Apr 28,2015
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USD under pressure ahead of FOMC – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities assessed the potential scenarios for the greenback in light of the FOMC statement due tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“The USD looks very delicately poised ahead of the FOMC meeting, which gets underway today”.
“This meeting is not “live” in a policy sense but the USD will take its cue from what the Fed’s statement implies about the outlook; a nod to the recent softness in the data would not be a great surprise but any hint of a delay in lift-off would still likely pressure the USD, given that broader market positioning is still heavily biased to USD longs”.
“On the other hand, a steady-as-she-goes message, indicating that the Fed is looking through the recent weakness in the data as a temporary phenomenon and which keeps the H2 lift-off timetable intact would be more of a surprise for investors”.
“At this point, the DXY looks poised to weaken further; the correction/ consolidation over the past 6-weeks or so leaves the index resting on (or just below) major support at 96.50 right now and the market is poised to close below the 40-day MA for a fourth consecutive session today (something not seen since July 2014); momentum traders are very likely paying close attention and it will not take much (in terms of further DXY weakness) to prompt a “pile on” short trade from this sector of the market and a broader about the USD’s near-term direction from the analyst community”.
Apr 28,2015
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GBP/USD extends gains on a weak US data
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US saw fresh offers, thereby pushing the GBP/USD higher to a fresh session high of 1.5326 after the weaker-than-expected US consumer confidence and regional manufacturing data hit the wires.
GBP/USD extends 700-pip rally
The cable extended the 700-pip rally witnessed from the low of 1.4564 after the US consumer confidence data for April missed the expectation of 102.5 to print at 95.2. The Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -3, beating the estimate of -2.
Focus now shifts to the US FOMC policy statement due for release tomorrow. The recent string of a weaker-than-expected US data convinced investors that the Fed could delay the rate hike to late 2015 or early 2016.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1.5344, above which the gains could be extended to 1.54. On the flip side, a break below 1.53 could push the pair down to 1.5228.
Apr 28,2015
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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