OctaFX_Farid Posted October 27, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2014 USD/CHF erases intraday losses FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF managed to reverse intraday losses during the European session and regained the 0.95 mark, moving inversely with EUR/USD. USD/CHF bottomed out at 0.9488 but has been steadily recovery ground over the last hours to trade nearly flat at the 0.9515 zone. On the data front, traders might get some direction from US Markit services PMI and pending home sales. USD/CHF levels to watch In terms of technical levels, USD/CHF could find next resistances at 0.9545 (Oct 24 high), 0.9561 (Oct 15 high) and 0.9591 (Oct 10 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.9485 (10-day SMA), 0.9471 (Oct 22 low) and 0.9400/0.9398 (psychological level/Oct 21 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Treasury yields slide on weak US data FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the short end and the long end of the treasury market curve declined after the disappointing US services PMI data and the Pending home sales data hit the wires. The ten-year yield now trades at 2.243%, down from the day’s high of 2.298%, while the two-year note yield trades at 0.378%, down from the day’s high of 0.402%. Moreover, the bond prices gained, pushing yields lower after the reports came-in that the US Pending home sales increased 1% year-over-year in September, much lower than the market forecast of a 2.2% increase. Meanwhile, the preliminary services PMI reading for October came-in at 57.3, compared to the market expectation of 57.8. Moreover, the stronger pickup in the wages was expected to push up housing purchases. The treasury yields are likely to remain well supported as markets brace up for the Federal Reserve (Fed) meet on Wednesday, wherein the central bank is widely expected to end its monthly bond buying program. Ten-year yield Technical levels The yield has an immediate resistance at 2.3%, while the support is located at 2.229% (Oct 24th low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY extends fall amid weak data and lower US yields FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar is trading under pressure amid weaker than expected housing and PMI services data in the United States as well as lower US yields. The USD/JPY is extending declines to 107.60 area after breaking previous lows of 107.70. Services PMI declined to 57.3 in October; more than 58.0 expected and lowest since April. The pending home sales index rose 'only' 0.3% in September, below 0.5% increase expected. US 10-year yield is now trading at 2.243% after declining from 2.298% daily high amid weak US data. As Omkar Godbole from FXStreet points out, "the yield has an immediate resistance at 2.3%, while the support is located at 2.229% (Oct 24th low)." Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.70, down -0.42% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.37 and low at 107.65. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish. USD/JPY sentiment The USD/JPY is trading down amid US data and affected by US yields; however, "the ECB announce their ABS spending spree thus far at the bottom of the hour," points out Ryan Littlestone from ForexLive. There shouldn’t be too much market reaction as there’s not much to gauge how they should be doing. That won’t stop some from having a guess at what they think the ECB should be doing so bear it in mind." Short term supports are at 107.60, 107.45 and 107.35. To the upside, resistances are at 07.90, 108.00 and 108.35. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 27, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2014 GBP holding to latest gains against USD - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that GBP/USD has been hovering slightly above the 1.6100 level on Tuesday. Key quotes "Price stands close to a daily descendant trend line coming from July high of 1.7190 today converging with Monday high in the 1.6145 price zone." "The lack of directional strength has left 4 hours indicators flat albeit in positive territory, while 20 SMA presents a mild bullish tone below current price, offering dynamic intraday support at 1.6075." "Neutral to bullish, the upside is favored on a break above mentioned 1.6145 towards the 1.6200 price zone, whilst below 1.6070, the pair’s bearish run may extend down to 1.6030 price zone." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/CHF regains 1.2060 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/CHF is posting fresh session highs now, hovering over 1.2060/65 after dropping to the mid-1.2000s in early trade. EUR/CHF bounces off 1.2050 The cross keeps the trade in a very tight range, currently coming up after a brief dip below 1.2050 on Monday. Data wise in the Alpine economy, the only releases of note this week will be the Consumption Indicator gauged by UBS and the KOF Leading Indicator, both due on Friday. In the meantime, market participants slowly commenced to turn their attention to the referendum regarding the SNB gold holdings on 30th November. “Initial resistance is found circa 1.2083, the 55 day ma. This guards the 1.2133 July low and the 200 day ma at 1.2159”, suggested Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. EUR/CHF key levels The cross is now up 0.02% at 1.2062 and a breakout of 1.2080 (30-d MA) would expose 1.2086 (38.2% of 1.2140-1.2053) and finally 1.2096 (high Oct.14). On the other hand, The initial support lines up at 1.2053 (low Oct.2) ahead of 1.2045 (low Sep.4) and then 1.2030 (low Nov.28 2012). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Gains in WTI Crude capped by weak US data FXStreet (Mumbai) - The gains in the Crude oil prices have been halted by a weaker than expected US Durable goods orders data. The prices had rallied from the three-day lows in anticipation of a strong data. WTI Crude for December delivery is trading 0.47% higher at USD 81.37/barrel. However, the prices slipped from a high of USD 81.65 levels hit just ahead of the release of the US data. The Durable goods orders in the US contracted 1.2% in September, missing market expectations of a 0.5% increase. Earlier today, the prices were pushed lower on forecasts that U.S. crude inventories increased last week. Moreover, the major investment banks have reduced their price forecasts for Crude oil on the both sides of the Atlantic. The latest one to do so is the Barclays, which reduced its estimate for the average Brent price in 2015 to $93 a barrel from $96, and for WTI prices to $85 from $89. Crude prices may dip once again if the US consumer confidence data for October fails to meet the market expectation of 87.00. WTI Crude Technical levels WTI crude has an immediate support at 81.06 on the hourly chart, below which the prices can fall to 80.47 levels. On the flip side, prices can test 82.31 levels if the day’s high of 81.65 is breached. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 28, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2014 US: Durable Good Orders (Sep) dropped 1.3% FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Commerce Department has informed that orders for US long-lasting goods have contracted 1.3% MoM during September, missing expectations at 0.5% although better from August’s 18.3% drop (revised). Excluding the Transportation sector, orders fell 0.2% vs. forecasts for a 0.5% advance. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates DJIA gains 0.30% FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US Equity markets have opened higher, in line with the action witnessed the gains in the European equity markets. The negative Durable goods number released earlier today has failed to have a big impact on the stock markets. The DJIA is trading 0.33% higher at 16,873.50 levels. The index breadth is positive with an advance decline ratio of 24:6. Among the index stocks, Merck&Co is trading 1.64% lower after it reported the disappointing sales of its Gardasil cervical cancer vaccine. The stock had tumbled 2% yesterday. Meanwhile, the biggest chemical maker by market value, Dupont share price is trading 0.30% up, despite reporting a surprise drop in the third-quarter sales. On the other hand, Caterpillar and Intel share prices are trading higher by 1.69% and 1.16% respectively. Moreover, the stock markets in the US may extend rally if the consumer confidence number for October due later in the day manages to surpass the expected print of 87.00. DJIA Technical levels The index has an immediate support at 16,800 levels, below which the prices can drop to 16,652 levels. On the other hand, the index may extend gains to 17,000 levels if the immediate resistance of 16,900 is breached. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 28, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2014 US Treasury Secretary Lew confident about soundness of US recovery FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a business forum in South Africa US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said that the current positive trend in US economy should continue, although he expressed concerns about the weak rebound on the housing market. He called for easing lending conditions to boost mortgages. He also pointed to the need of a tax reform and improvements in the US infrastructure. Moreover the suggested that Europe needs a more responsible fiscal policy while China should concentrate on implementing the necessary economic reforms, making its policy more market oriented. However, the Chinese growth slowdown woes are exaggerated, Lew stressed. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Treasuries trade flat ahead of the US Fed meet FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the long end and the short end of the US bond market curve are trading flat ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meet today. The ten-year yield is trading at 2.29%, largely unchanged from the yesterday’s New York closing of 2.298%. The Fed is widely expected to announce the end of its monthly bond purchase program today. Moreover, the taper begun in December 2013 when the Fed announced a first cut of USD 10 billion to the monthly bond buying program of USD 85 billion. Since then, the central bank has trimmed its bond purchase program at a pace of USD 10 billion in every policy meet. The Fed is widely expected to announce a final cut of USD 15 billion today. However, the Fed has maintained through the Taper process that it intends to keep the interest rate at record low levels for a considerable period of time post end of QE. Thus, the equity markets have gained across the globe today on hopes that the Fed would continue to remain dovish on interest rates. Ten-year yield Technical levels The yield is trading near an immediate resistance of 2.3%, above which it can rise to 2.345%. On the other hand, a failure to rise above 2.3% today, shall push the yields lower to 2.2%. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD to continue to range trade within 1.6000-1.6200 - OCBC Bank FXStreet (Łódź) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank sees GBP/USD trading in a range of .6000-1.6200. Key Quotes "Meanwhile, the GBP-USD came off intra-day highs above 1.6150 after the BOE’s Cunliffe called for caution with respect to hiking rates given the evidence of slowing UK growth coupled with darker international prospects, noting that the Bank '…can afford to maintain the current degree of monetary stimulus for a longer period than previously thought'." "Note that this comes on the heels of similarly dovish or guarded sentiment expressed by the BOE’s Shafik on Monday." "With BOE expectations still waning, look for the pair to continue to range trade within 1.6000-1.6200 although the pair may not be beyond reacting to any negative dollar vibes from the FOMC." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2014 EUR rise likely limited to 1.2860 - UOB Group FXStreet (Łódź) - The Market Strategy Team at UOB Group suggests that we will see some more EUR gains today but the climb will most probably be limited to the 1.2860 level for now. Key Quotes "EUR broke above the strong resistant at 1.2750 reaching an overnight high of 1.2763." "While further EUR strength is likely in the coming days, upward momentum is not very strong at this stage and any further rally will likely struggle to move above the recent high near 1.2860." "However, only an unlikely break below the key support at 1.2640 would indicate that the prevalent upward pressure has eased." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Gold trades marginally weak FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have weakened marginally ahead of the US opening, although not much activity is seen since the investors prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meet. Gold is trading 0.16% lower for the day at USD 1227.50/Oz levels. Moreover, prices remained consolidated in a narrow range of 1227-1230 through the entire European session today. The US Equity futures are trading marginally in the red, despite the strength in the major European equity indices. Meanwhile, the ten-year treasury yields have inched higher to 2.293%, which may have weakened the Gold prices. Gold Technical levels The metal is trading in a narrow range of 1227-1230, breach of which shall open doors for 1233 levels or 1224 levels depending on which direction the prices break out. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Focus on potential changes to Fed forward guidance statement - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of experts note that EUR/USD is trading flat ahead of the Fed monetary policy announcement which is expected to bring the end of QE3. Key quotes "This FOMC meeting should mark the end of the QE3 program. However, with domestic economic growth momentum beginning to leak lower (e.g., the Atlanta Fed GDP Q3 projection stands at 2.7% q/q annualized, down from 3.2% a couple of weeks ago), and the medium term outlook for the recovery and inflation becoming less certain, there will be no incentives to appear hawkish." "The key element today will be any potential changes to the forward guidance statement that would remove the reference to the fed funds rate staying at current levels for a 'considerable time after the asset purchase program ends' and make the timing for liftoff more data dependent." "Market pricing currently implies a first hike would occur in October 2015. And, as price action yesterday demonstrated, the FX market in particular appears to be very sensitive to changes around Fed timing expectations." "Disappointing US data saw the USD falling quite noticeable across the board, whereas both EURUSD and USDJPY had ignored domestic data releases earlier in the day." "Overnight, USDJPY once again was unresponsive to a stronger-than-expected industrial production reading. The risk, however, is that the statement fails to live up to the overly dovish tone that the market may be expecting." "In this case, we would expect to see USDJPY pushing higher into the high 108s, and EURUSD having a somewhat more pronounced reaction, pushing lower into the low 1.26 area." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2014 Gold extends fall FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices fell tracking a rise in the US Equities as the investors brace-up for the results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision due at 18:00 GMT. Gold is trading 0.37% lower for the day at USD 1224.80/Oz after having hit a low of USD 1221 post the US opening bell. The prices can under pressure as US Equities inched higher while the US Ten-year treasury yields rose to the day’s high of 2.3%. Moreover, the two-year treasury yield, a barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, has also inched higher, thereby pressurizing the Gold prices. Gold Technical levels Gold has an immediate support at the daily low of 1221, under which the prices can fall to 1217 levels. On the flip side, prices may re-test 1230 levels if the metal manages to breach the intraday resistance located at 1225 levels. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2014 USD/JPY hovers around 108.00 FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY remains directionless, trading erratically near the top of its recent range as investors gear up for the Federal Open Market Committee decision on monetary policy. USD/JPY pulled back throughout the European session but found support at the 107.90 zone and bounced afterward, but moves are lacking real strength. The pair is facing mild pressure at the beginning of the New York session, having dropped a few pips to currently trade around 108.05, virtually unchanged on the day. Sideways consolidation will likely persist until 18:00 GMT when the Federal Reserve will announce its verdict. The Fed is expected to announce its commitment to end QE today. USD/JPY levels to watch In terms of technical levels, resistances are seen at 108.19 (Oct 29 high), 108.33 (Oct 27 high) and 108.73 (Oct 8 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 107.93 (Oct 29 low), 107.58/64 (Oct 27 low/20-day SMA) and 107.38 (Oct 20 high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 29, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2014 EMU: Consumer Confidence up to -11.1 in October, as expected FXStreet (Łódź) - Eurozone Consumer Confidence edged up to -11.1 in October, from -11.4 in September, the European Commission reported on Thursday. This result is in line with market consensus. Eurozone Business Climate rose to 0.05, from 0.02, as expected. The Economic Sentiment Indicator climbed to 100.7 from 99.9 and against forecasts of falling to 99.7. Industrial Confidence decline slowed down from -5.5 to -5.1, against expectations of remaining unchanged. Services Sentiment improved to 4.4 from 3.2 and against consensus of falling to 3.1. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD depressed below 1.2600FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is extending its decline on Thursday, taking EUR/USD to the 1.2580 region so far.EUR/USD muted post-dataSpot remained pretty much unchanged after Economic Sentiment and Business Climate surpassed forecasts during October, coming in at 100.7 and 0.05, respectively. Other indicators also showed auspicious results: Industrial Confidence improved to -5.1 from -5.5 and Services Sentiment bettered to 4.4 from 3.2. All in all, good prospect for the region although the demand for the single currency is still suffering yesterdays FOMC hawkish statement. The lack of any significant bounce suggests further EUR weakness but any further decline will likely be at a slower pace. Only a move back above 1.2675 would indicate that a temporary low is in place. Otherwise, expect a move lower towards 1.2600.EUR/USD key levelsThe pair is now losing 0.32% at 1.2591 and a breach of 1.2504 (low Oct.6) would expose 1.2501 (2014 low Oct.3) and then 1.2493 (low Aug.31). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at 1.2639 (high Oct.30) followed by 1.2690 (10-d MA) and finally 1.2691 (21-d MA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official pageOct 30, 2014OctaFX.Com News Updates Sensex at a new closing high FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Indian equity markets rose on optimism that the US economy is on the track as indicated the optimistic Federal Reserve (Fed) policy statements. Moreover, the reforms initiated by the new government has managed to negate the impact of little hawkishness seen in the Fed’s statement. The market ended with hefty returns today Nifty ending at 8169.20 up 78.75 points or 0.9%, while the Sensex ended at a record closing high at 27346.33, up 0.9% for the day. The index was pushed up by Relianc, which gained 3%, while TCS, Hindalco, Infosys and GAIL were top gainers. On the losing side were Sesa Sterlite, M&M, Cipla, Tata Power and Hero. Exporter shares also edged higher on optimism about the US economy. Infosys ended up 1.6 %, while rival Tata Consultancy Services Ltd gaining 2.3%. Sensex Technical levels The index has an immediate support at 27,256 (Sept. 23), under which the prices can fall to 27,000 levels. Meanwhile, a breach of 27,385 levels shall open doors for a fresh record high levels in the index. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2014 EUR/USD trading close to 1.2580 - FXStreet FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the post-Fed strength of the USD extended in the European session with the EUR/USD trading close to the 1.2580 region. Key quotes "Having breached the 1.2610/20 price zone, the technical outlook has turned now strongly bearish, and the level will likely attract sellers if reached." "Later on the day, the US will release the Advanced GDP for the third quarter, expected at 3.1%." "Previous quarter was revised up to 4.6%, so a better than expected number should boost the greenback, yet a not so good one needs to be extremely disappointing, something below 2% to actually reverse latest dollar gains." "Technically, the 4 hours chart shows indicators still heading south despite in oversold territory, with 20 SMA now turning south well above current price, in the 1.2680 level." "A break below 1.2550 should lead to a downward extension towards 1.2500, this year low, whilst a break below exposes 1.2440 as next probable bearish target." "Price needs to advance above 1.2620 to begin an upward move, eyeing then a probable move up to 1.2660/80 area, next selling level on pullbacks." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD down to 1.5950 amid upbeat US GDP FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Dollar is advancing across the board amid a better than expected US GDP in the Q3. So the GBP/USD fell to test 1.5950 area just after the report. However the pair managed to bounce and it returned to pre-data levels. US GDP rises 3.5% in the Q3; above 3.0% expected. Previous last 4 quarters: +4.5%, +3.5%, -2.1%, & + 4.6%. Consumption down to 1.8% from 2.5%, while core PCE down to 1.4% from 2.0%. The statement acknowledges too much government spending. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5980, down -0.19% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6020 and low at 1.5951. GBP/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index also is neutral. GBP/USD levels If the pair extends bounce above 1.6000, it will find next resistances at 1.6010 and 1.6020. To the downside, supports are at 1.5950, 1.5900 and 1.5875. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates German Ten-year yield at day’s low on weak German CPI FXStreet (Mumbai) - The German ten-year is trading at a day’s low after the official data showed a slowdown in the price pressures in October. The ten-year yield is trading at 0.845%, down from the day’s high of 0.903%. The yields have been falling since the early morning trade tracking weakness in the equity markets. The CPI in October rose 0.7% year-on-year, compared to the market expectation of 0.9%. Moreover, the markets were expecting an increase in the price pressures. However, given the slump in the energy prices, it was unlikely that the CPI would rise more than expected. Month-on–month the prices fell 0.3%, compared to the expectation of 0.1% fall. Ten-year yield Technical levels The yield has an immediate support at 0.824%, under which it can fall to 0.811%. On the other hand, a strong resistance is seen at 0.9%. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2014 Fed's Yellen calls for more diversity in economics FXStreet (Łódź) - Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who spoke on Thursday at the National Summit on Diversity in the Economics Profession in Washington didn't make comments on monetary policy in her opening remarks. Yellen suggested that a greater number of women in economics could contribute to the profession with different views and approaches and that the Fed has been promoting this stance for some time now. “Often, in the things economists study and the methods we use, diversity is a good thing,” Yellen said. “I believe decisions by the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee are better because of the range of views and perspectives brought to the table by my fellow policymakers, and I have encouraged this approach to decision making at all levels and throughout the Fed system.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY wobbling around 109.00 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - USD/JPY is sidelining around the 109.00 handle on Thursday, keeping the trade between 108.80 and 109.40 so far. USD/JPY looks to Japanese CPI Spot remained practically indifferent to the improvement of the US GDP during Q3, expanding above forecasts 3.5% on a yearly basis. Instead, market participants are now focusing on the critical inflation figures in Japan, due tonight. Consensus expect the key National CPI Ex-Fresh Food to rise at an annual pace of 3.0% in September, a tad lower than August’s 3.1% advance. Robert Rennie, Strategist at Westpac, suggested, “We… hold a buy bias for another week but remain unconvinced that USD/JPY will drop much below 107”. USD/JPY levels to watch As of writing the pair is up 0.10% at 109.00 facing the next resistance at 109.85 (high Oct.6) ahead of 109.91 (high Oct.3) and finally 110.09 (2014 high Oct.1). On the flip side, a breakdown of 108,75 (low Oct.30) would aim for 107.94 (low Oct.29) and then 107.71 (Tenkan Sen). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 30, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 EMU: Annual CPI ticks up to 0.4% in October FXStreet (Łódź) - According to preliminary data released today by Eurostat, Eurozone annual climbed to 0.4% in October from 0.3% in September, as expected. Year-over-year CPI-Core slid to 0.7% in October from 0.8% in September, against forecasts of remaining unchanged. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US: Personal Income (Sep) rose 0.2% FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Commerce Department informed that US Personal income rose at a monthly pace of 0.2% during September, missing estimates while Personal Spending dropped 0.2%. Further data showed US inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose 1.4% over the last twelve months and 0.1% inter-month. Core PCE, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.5% YoY and 0.1% MoM. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Natural Gas rises on weather reports FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Natural gas prices have inched higher despite a bearish weekly storage report released yesterday as the updated weather forecast models indicate the chilly weather in the days ahead. Natural Gas for December delivery is trading 1.57% higher at USD 3.887/mmbtu. The prices gained strength after the updated weather forecast models predicted cold Canadian air to make its way south in the lower 48 states in the coming days. "I think people are a little leery of selling it down further when you've got your first real cold front coming in," said Kyle Cooper, managing partner of research consultancy IAF Advisors in Houston. Moreover, the heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for US gas consumption. Natural Gas Technical levels Natural Gas has an immediate support at 3.874, under which the prices can fall to 3.83 levels. On the flip side, the prices can rise to 4.00, if the immediate resistance located at 3.955 is breached. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted October 31, 2014 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2014 BoJ QE increase and Fed QE end could impact USD/JPY - J.P. Morgan FXStreet (Łódź) - The J.P. Morgan team of analysts see believe that the sharper divergence between the BoJ's and the Fed's monetary policies could have a considerable impact on USD/JPY. Key quotes "Possible change in relative balance sheet between the BoJ / the Fed and real yield differentials between Japan / US suggest a significant upside risk in USD/JPY." "We now see USD/JPY to appreciate to 120 by September 2015. We recommend buying a 6-mo 114-120 USD/JPY call spread against selling a 6-mo 107 put, RKI 104. This costs 12bp." "Today, the BoJ unexpectedly decided to expend QQE by a 5-4 vote." "Today’s decision indicated BoJ's seriousness to push up Japan's inflation to 2%. Indeed, in their semi-annual Outlook Report, BoJ did not change their forecast of core CPI for FY 2016 at 2.1% (excluding the impact of consumption tax hike)." "BoJ decided to hold more risky assets in their asset side and put liability side (the yen note) at risks. BoJ seems to be very serious to devalue the currency they issue." "If the BoJ, who issue the yen note, are so serious to devalue of the yen, probably it will happen. The next question may be if they can stop the devaluation once Japanese people start worrying about holding the yen note." "Indeed, the giant fund who manages pension money of Japanese people already shows the way. The GPIF also announced new target for their portfolio today." "Under the new portfolio, GPIF will have to sell large amount of JGB, which will be absorbed by the BoJ, and buy more stocks and foreign assets. Actually, new allocation was also surprising to us because they will increase more foreign assets compare to we thought." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Oct 31, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 3, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 Bitcoin erases gains FXStreet (Mumbai) - Bitcoin prices erased early morning gains after the virtual currency struggled near a technical resistance level. The BTC/USD is trading 0.62% higher at 327, after giving faced rejected at the day’s high of USD 335.47 levels. The virtual currency continues to see a chart based trading as the market lack fresh fundamental trigger. Meanwhile, CoinDesks’s Bitcoin Price index is trading 1.39% higher at 328.25. Elsewhere, the BTC/EUR has gained 0.565 to trade at 261.93 levels. Bitcoin Technical Levels Bitcoin has failed to sustain above the immediate resistance located at 331.08, opening doors for a 315 levels on the downside. On the other hand, prices may rise to 339 levels if the immediate resistance of 331.08 is breached. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates SEB: EUR/USD fell down to a fresh trend low - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team note that the SEB observes EUR/USD's decline to a fresh trend low on Monday. Key quotes "Following the recheck and validation of the neckline break the market continued its descent down to a fresh trend low hence fulfilling an absolute minimum target for the move, a new low." "Looking forward more likely targets for the current wave 5 should be sought at 1.2398, 1.2326 or 1.2220." "To maintain a healthy downside momentum it is rather important that a rebound ends below 1.2614." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates SEB:Caution if USD/JPY closing below 112.14 - eFXnews FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team remark that the SEB sees a risk of a correction in USD/JPY. Key quotes "Friday’s buying spree brought the pair up above the estimated ceiling line at 112.08." "The move is however starting to look stretched so there’s clearly an increasing correction risk lurking." "Ending today back into the channel will increase such a risk and will probably trigger a few stops." "Should a setback occur the mid body point, 110.75, of Friday’s rising benchmark candle, will be a first hand target." 'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.' OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 3, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2014 USD/CAD looking to recover 1.1300 FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bottoming out in sub-1.1270 levels, USD/CAD is now recovering the ground lost and aiming for the 1.1300 handle. USD/CAD eyes on US docket Spot is advancing for the second consecutive session so far, targeting the interim resistance at Friday’s peaks around 1.1330 against a backdrop of a persistent USD strength. Next of relevance for the pair will be the reports of both Canadian and US manufacturing sectors, with the releases of the RBC PMI and the ISM and PMI gauged by Markit, respectively. According to the last CFTC report, strategists at Rabobank noted, “CAD positions were mostly consolidative, though soft oil prices have pushed CAD shorts to their highest level since June”. USD/CAD levels to watch As of writing the pair is advancing 0.14% at 1.1282 and a surpass of 1.1332 (high Oct.31) would open the door to 1.1360 (high oct.16) and then 1.1385 (2014 high Oct.15). On the other side, the immediate support lines up at 1.1264 (low Nov.3) ahead of 1.1227 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.1183 (low Oct.31). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Bullish outlook for USD/CAD - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - The TD Securities team of experts observe that the headwinds for the CAD such as weaker commodities, continue this week so the bull trend for USD/CAD should remain in place for now. Key quotes "The week ahead will be hallmarked by two dual releases in the form of US and Canadian trade figures tomorrow and both countries’ employment reports on Friday." "In a nutshell, we are expecting Canadian trade to surprise on the upside and we have an on-consensus view on Canadian employment, whereas we are slightly below consensus on US trade but above consensus on US employment." "The first hurdle for the CAD will be trade—and we think risks here are somewhat asymmetric; ok-to-good data do little positive for the CAD but another disappointing outcome will hurt the CAD more. If both our employment forecasts come to fruition (-10K in Canada vs +239K in the US), funds will surely have another big up day Friday." "Governor Poloz speaks this afternoon at an event organized by the Canadian Council for Public Private Partnerships. We do not expect his speech to break new ground on the BoC latest thinking but the press conference scheduled at 14.00ET bears watching, as it will provide journalists the opportunities to ask the questions they could not ask upon the release of the MPR on October 22nd." "We remain conviction bulls on USDCAD; the headwinds we noted for the CAD last week—softer commodities and wider (more USD-supportive– remain evident at the start of the week and the charts are shaping up quite bullishly; the 40-day MA hold last week suggests the broader bull trend is intact, the consolidation (bull flag) break out points to more immediate gains and new highs, the higher weekly high negates a mildly negative weekly candle in the week before last." "We think modest dips are a buy and we would be reluctant to fade gains from here—USDCAD is shaping up for a move (recall weekly technicals point to 1.18+)." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 03, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2014 Miner stocks hurt by rout in Gold prices FXStreet (Mumbai) - A sharp decline in the Gold prices witnessed in the last week led to a sharp sell-off in the miner stock prices in the US. The top five gold miners fell almost 12% on average in the last two trading sessions of the previous week. Kinross Gold fell 20% last week and trades nearly 50% down in 2014. Meanwhile, Roxgold and Romarco Minerals were most notable among losers, down 27% and 22% respectively. Barrick and Goldcorp's share prices fell 7% and 12% respectively. Moreover, the fall in some of the stocks was three times more than that of the fall in Gold prices, which indicates the sell-off may be overdone. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates US index futures hint at a weak opening on Wall Street FXStreet (Mumbai) - The equity futures in the US declined as investors await evidence, in the form of macro data, that the economy can sustain a withdrawal in stimulus. The DJIA December futures are trading lower by 0.19% at 17,253 levels, while the S&P December futures are trading 0.25% down at 2006.15. Meanwhile, the Midcap index Russell 2000 December futures are trading 0.35% lower at 1162.00. Earnings reports may provide further clues to the health of the U.S. economy. Prudential Financial Inc., 21st Century Fox Inc., and Walt Disney Co. are among the S&P 500 companies posting financial results this week. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/NZD hovering around 1.1240 FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/NZD remains flat on Tuesday after RBA decision and ahead of key economic data from New Zealand. The pair bottomed during the Asian session after economic numbers from Australia and the RBA statement at 1.1207, reaching the lowest price since last Friday but then bounced to the upside and printed a daily high on European hours at 1.1272. AUD/NZD technical outlook In the short term the pair remains moving sideways, in a range between 1.1210 and 1.1270; with a bias that favors the aussie. But the area around 1.1300 has become a key resistance. After Wall Street closing bell the NZ employment report will be release and is likely to impact in the kiwi. Weak numbers could push the pair to test 1.1300 while to the downside, 1.1190 - 1.1200 is an important support area to consider if employment figures surpass expectations. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2014 Silver trades below USD 16.00 FXStreet (Mumbai) - Silver prices have failed to sustain gains above USD 16.00 levels, after ending the previous session at USD 16.20/Oz levels. Silver is trading 1.62% lower at USD 15.938/Oz levels today, after having struggled repeatedly around USD 16.20 levels. The recovery seen yesterday may have been driven by a bout of profit booking on the short positions. Moreover, Silver is down 16% on the year, while the recent slump has been more than the one witnessed in the Gold prices. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index has pressurized the precious metals pack. Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct. 28 revealed that the money-managers boosted their net-short in silver, pushing it to the highest level since June 3. Their bearish position now stands at 10,321 contracts. The large speculators cut 251 gross longs and added 1,434 gross shorts. Elsewhere, non-commercials added 135 gross longs and 1,638 gross shorts, making them net-short 98 contracts. Silver Technical levels Silver has an immediate support at 15.887, under which the prices can fall to 15.74 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 16.14 and 16.20 levels. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 04, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 USD/CHF climbs to 0.9650 FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF erased most of yesterday losses during the last five hours and climbed to 0.9650, reaching a fresh daily high, slightly below the price it had at the beginning of the week. Greenback is rising across the board on Wednesday, after US elections and ahead of the ADP employment report. Despite falling against the US dollar the Swiss franc is the best performer among European currencies. USD/CHF with support at 0.9575/80 The pair bottomed yesterday at 0.9578 and today during the Asian session approached the mentioned level that offered support again. Afterwards turned to the upside and climbed further on European horus. Again USD/CHF has approached 2014 highs that lie barely below 0.9700. From current price (0.9635/38), immediate resistance lies at 0.9650/55 and above here at 0.9665 and then 0.9690 (Nov 3 high). To the downside, support might now lie at 0.9615 and below 0.9575 (Nov 4 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Gold continues to fall FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extend their slide ahead of the US session tracking broad based strength in the US Dollar and the strength in the US Equity futures. Gold is trading 2.46% lower at USD 1139/Oz levels while the US Dollar Index has inched 0.58% higher to 87.67 levels. The S&P futures are trading 0.50% higher at 2015.45 levels. The yellow metal failed to find any support from a slight weakness in the European PMI indices, since the equities in the Europe remained resilient. The yellow metal may dip further today if equities in the US rise further in anticipation of a more aggressive stimulus measure from the European Central Bank. Gold Technical Levels Gold has an immediate resistance at 1144, above which prices can re-test 1161 levels. Meanwhile, immediate support is seen at 1118 levels. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 5, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2014 A “dot hike” from the Fed on the cards? - BAML FXStreet (Guatemala) - Ralph Axel, Rates Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes the forthcoming consensus for the US jobs report in Nonfarm Payrolls could be a catalyst for a shift in sentiment around the feds first rate hike. Key Quotes: "A consensus or moderately below-consensus jobs report on Friday we believe can create an even greater divergence between the market and the Fed around the latter's expected tightening cycle”. “While such a report would result in an unchanged market or even lower yields on a weaker report, it could cause the Fed to increase its dots in next month's dot plot - a "dot hike" - which given the very large discrepancy between the market and dots should be a substantial hawkish surprise for markets." "The unemployment rate this Friday is the key number for the Fed, and we would view a 5.9% rate, which is the consensus, as providing a great opportunity to sell the front end of the rates market, preferably using EDZ6 euro/dollar contracts or 5y Treasuries, futures or swaps. If the unemployment rate drops to 5.8% or lower, especially with a weak nonfarm headline number, our conviction in this trade would increase materially OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Republican Party creating turbulence - Investec FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec noted that the Republican Party has won control of the Senate in the US mid-term elections… Key Quotes: "The Republican Party has won control of the Senate in the US mid-term elections, increasing its power against Barack Obama in the final two years of his presidency. The Republican party is also set to strengthen its majority in the House of Representatives." "Republicans focused on voter dissatisfaction with President Obama throughout their campaign, describing the vote as a referendum on his presidency”. “The victory will make life more difficult for the Democrats and increase political turbulence for the Federal Reserve." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 05, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 EUR/USD falls below 1.2500 on Draghi's comments on Thursday - BTMU FXStreet (Łódź) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ remarks that following Mario Draghi's comments on the balance sheet size and hints on further easing EUR/USD dropped below the 1.2500 level. Key Quotes "The power of communication. For so long earlier this year, the ECB’s communication wasn’t having much impact but once action is taken by a central bank to back up its words, then communication can turn into a very powerful tool. And so it was yesterday with ECB President Draghi’s explicit comment on balance sheet size and clear hints on further easing pushing the EUR/USD rate well below the 1.2500 level that had been holding for a time." "The explicit mention of the balance sheet going back to “2012 dimensions” also served the purpose of undermining the speculation fuelled by a market report that there were divisions within the ECB Council over President Draghi’s communication style, like communicating a balance sheet target when it was agreed not to. Not only did Draghi mention “2012 dimensions”, he made clear that referred to the time after the second LTRO when the balance sheet hit its EUR 3trn peak.0" "In terms of what has changed, Draghi also intimated that the ECB staff forecasts next month will be lowered again – the current inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are 1.1% and 1.4% respectively. The European Commission this week put inflation in those years at just 0.8% and 1.5%." "So we are quite likely to see a notable change to the 2015 level although it is debatable whether the 2016 level will be changed. Apart from the fall in crude oil prices, there has not really been any dramatic change in economic conditions." "Indeed, Italy and France have backed away from fiscal austerity, helping the growth outlook. Nonetheless, the change in inflation outlook appears the key factor for allowing Draghi to hint at further action by stating that the ECB Council has been “tasked with preparing further measures if needed”." "Finally, from an FX perspective, our current EUR/USD forecasts were based on the assumption of no full-blown sovereign debt QE (1.1800 Q3 2015). That assumption is looking questionable at the moment and hence our forecasts may require downward revisions." "Draghi did emphasise the widening monetary divergence ahead and with asset purchases set to continue for two years, EUR/USD will continue to fall. We are still not convinced of sovereign debt QE being unleashed in December and hence for now we will maintain our 1.2500 end-2014 target." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 06, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates GBP/USD ignored the disappointing Trade Balance FXStreet (Moscow) - GBP/USD is still trading above 1.58 area practically ignoring the UK Trade Balance. The pound has become immune to weaker-than-expected data, as just released Trade Balance was practically ignored by the currency. No wonder, given the series of disappointments from PMI releases, and the recent impressive sell-off of the pair. The yesterday’s Services PMI printed lowest level since May 2013, and it pushed the pair to 14-month low. The pair may take a pause for now waiting for the key US release to come, and if the American report proves to be better than expected, it may kill any hope for the pound sending it below 1.58 round number. What are today’s key GBP/USD levels? Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.5890, with support below at 1.5777, followed by 1.5719 and 1.5606 with resistance above at 1.5948, followed by 1.6061 and 1.6119. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bearish at 1.6002, and the daily 20EMA bearish at 1.6041. Hourly RSI is bearish at 32. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 06, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted November 7, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2014 EUR/GBP extends recovery from weekly lows FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP pushed to fresh daily highs as the pound weakened on the back of weaker than expected UK trade balance data. EUR/GBP extended its recovery from the 0.7800 area and touched a daily high of 0.7840 but lacked follow-through. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7833, still up 0.25% on the day but virtually unchanged on the week. The euro weakened Thursday and briefly dropped below 0.7800 versus the pound following ECB President dovish remarks. However, EUR/GBP found support at 0.7798, the same level it bottomed earlier this week. EUR/GBP technical levels On the upside, EUR/GBP could find immediate resistances at 0.7863 (Nov 5 & 6 highs), 0.7883/85 (Oct 31 high/20-day SMA) and 0.7900 (psychological level). On the downside, supports could be found at 0.7800/0.7798 (psychological level/Nov 3 & 6 lows), 0.7789 (Oct 2 low) and 0.7766 (2014 low Oct 1). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 06, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates NZD/USD rises to 0.7700 FXStreet (Córdoba) - The kiwi recovered ground during the European session and erased losses against the US dollar ahead of the US employment report. NZD/USD bottomed on Asian hours at 0.7659, the lowest price in two years and then rebounded. Currently the pair is hovering around 0.7700, slightly higher for the day and moving with bullish momentum. Recently printed a fresh daily high at 0.7703. NZD/USD outlook The trend remains bearsih and the pair is still under pressure, trading near the lowest level since June 2012. In the short term, with the NFP report near, the pair managed to turner to the upside. Technical indicators favor the kiwi for the coming hours but employment numbers from the US are likely to increase volatility in the forex and define the next move. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 06, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Strong NFP result expected in October - TD Securities FXStreet (Łódź) - Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities expects anothe rmonth of robust US job gains in October. Key quotes "A number of indicators suggest another strong month for the US labour market, including strength in the employment subcomponents of the ISM surveys, cyclical lows in claims and better-than-expected ADP private payrolls." "We are broadly in line with consensus in expecting 239k jobs created in October and the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.9%." "We suspect that momentum spillover from Q3 to Q4 will continue to support job growth into year-end." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Nov 06, 2014 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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