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UK: Annual Industrial Production dips 1.6% in May
FXStreet (Łódź) - Year-over-year UK Industrial Production fell by 1.6% in May, following a 2.0% drop in April, National Statistics informed on Tuesday. This is a more positive result that the forecasted 2.1% decrease. UK Industrial Production rose by 1% between April 2012 and May 2012, in comparison with the 0.4% decline registered between March 2012 and April 2012 and against expectations of a 0.2% drop.
On an annual basis UK Manufacturing Production fell by 1.7% in May, after decreasing 1.5% in April and above expectations of a 1.9% decline. Between April 2012 and May 2012 UK Manufacturing Production rose 1.2%, following a 0.8% drop between March 2012 and April 2012 and exceeding market consensus of 0.1% growth.
Sep 09, 2014
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GBP/USD 1.6000 A Big Level...Will It Hold? - ForexTrading.TV
FXStreet (Łódź) - Nick Jordan, currency analyst at ForexTrading.TV wonders whether the GBP/USD 1.6000 level will hold.
Sep 09, 2014
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Credit Agricole: Recent GBP drop connected with Scottish independence vote - eFXnews
FXStreet (Łódź) - The eFXnews team comment on Credit Agricole 's observation that since the beginning of July GBP/USD fell to 1.611 from 1.719 and as the drop accelerated last week it is most probably due to the market pricing in risks of Scotland voting 'yes' in the independence referendum.
Key quotes
"Position squaring explains some of the move, as the UK economic data has modestly decelerated in Q3 and the market has cut back some its long GBP holdings. However, nearly half of this move has taken place over the past the week, suggesting that the market has started to price in the risks of a breakup."
"We take a stab at the potential implications of a 'yes' vote on September 18, which in our view are considerable. The biggest risks are the destabilization of the banking system and the potential for a sharp rise in the UK’s debt burden."
"Furthermore, the debt build-up could also weaken the growth prospects for Scotland (and the rest of the UK) but it would not have currency control to lessen the impacts."
"Indeed, the BoE would still dominate Scotland monetary policy."
"Corporate investment and consumer spending is likely to grind to a halt amid economic and regulatory uncertainty."
"All told, the long-term outcome of a possible 'yes' vote is a re-run of the Eurozone crisis – namely the dangers associated with fiscal sovereignty and a shared currency."
"While we stick to our view that Scotland will likely vote 'no,' be prepared for sharp drop in GBP if the Scot’s decide to leave."
'This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.'
Sep 09, 2014
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BoE's Carney: Rate hike by spring 2015 consistent with goal
FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a trade union congress in Liverpool BoE governor Mark Carney signals that the first rate hike is drawing nearer.
• The labor market needs time to recuperate before rates rise.
• Real wage growth should resume by the middle of 2015.
• Once the increases start, they will be gradual and limited.
• Inflation remains benign.
• UK GDP expected at 3.5% in 2014 and at 3% next year.
Sep 09, 2014
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BoE's Carney: Rate hike by spring 2015 consistent with goal
FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at a trade union congress in Liverpool BoE governor Mark Carney signals that the first rate hike is drawing nearer.
• The labor market needs time to recuperate before rates rise.
• Real wage growth should resume by the middle of 2015.
• Once the increases start, they will be gradual and limited.
• Inflation remains benign.
• UK GDP expected at 3.5% in 2014 and at 3% next year.
Sep 09, 2014
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EUR in consolidation mode again
FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Vladimir Mihaylov observes that the euro remains under pressure ahead of the release of EU ZEW data and the Fed monetary policy decision tomorrow.
Key quotes
"Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but I doubt we shall reach there soon."
"There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better."
"It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week."
"Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a lot worse too."
Sep 16, 2014
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EUR/USD remains heavy ahead of FOMC – OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, the pair will keep the heavy tone as we get closer to key events, such as the FOMC meeting and the TLTRO take up.
Key Quotes
“The EUR-USD may continue to loiter amidst a top heavy tone with the OECD yesterday urging further action from the ECB”.
“Data points meanwhile are providing no relief, with the July trade surplus shrinking from the previous month at EUR12.2bn”.
“As noted yesterday, the pair may be expected to bounce within a 1.2900-1.3000 range pending further cues (i.e., FOMC on Wednesday and the TLTRO take up on Thursday)”.
Sep 16, 2014
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United States Producer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0%) in August
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Sep 16, 2014
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Ruble hit by sanction woes while Ukraine grants eastern regions special status
FXStreet (Łódź) - The Russian ruble fell to a record low of 38.5175 against the dollar on Tuesday on fears that sanctions would cause lasting damage to the Russian economy.
Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister under Putin, said during a business conference that West's sanctions "are going to have an effect (on the economy) for the next one or two years because they have limited opportunities for investment in this uncertain environment."
Investor confidence was further undermined by reports that Moscow is planning to strike back by introducing import bans, which could damage domestic consumer spending.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian parliament passed a law in line with the ceasefire agreement, granting special self-rule status to the eastern regions of the country overrun by pro-Russian separatists.
The new bill legislates Russian as the second official language, establishes a special economic rule in the region, sets the early local elections date for December 7 and offers amnesty to the militia members.
Still, the leaders of the rebels stated that they are not interested in enjoying a special status, and demanded full independence from Ukraine. The fighting, which continues in Donetsk, as well as the presence of about 25,000 Russian soldiers close to the Ukrainian border, highlights the fragility of the truce.
Sep 16, 2014
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USD/JPY faces the 107.00 frontier
FXStreet (San Francisco) - It seems the 107.30 area is providing more problems that initially thought for the USD/JPY as the pair hasn't been able to break above it despite several attempts.
The last try was in the European morning with a daily high of 107.30 but the pair was rejected to test the 107.00 area where it remains pricing in sideways mode.
Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.12, down 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 107.35 and low at 106.93. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.
USD/JPY levels
If the pair manages to hold the 107.00 level, it will face next resistances at 107.30, 107.40 and 107.80. On the downside, supports are at the mentioned 107.00, then 106.90 and 106.60.
Sep 16, 2014
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AUD/USD advances within range - FXStreet
FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that after setting the daily high of 0.9052 at the beginning of the Asian session, and a low of 0.8988 in early Europe, AUD/USD is now rising within range.
Key quotes
"The 1 hour chart shows price a few pips above a flat 20 SMA and momentum around 100, showing no actual strength."
"In the 4 hours chart indicators correct from oversold levels yet remain in negative territory, while 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope above current price, which helps keep the upside limited."
Sep 16, 2014
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AUD/USD advances within range - FXStreet
FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that after setting the daily high of 0.9052 at the beginning of the Asian session, and a low of 0.8988 in early Europe, AUD/USD is now rising within range.
Key quotes
"The 1 hour chart shows price a few pips above a flat 20 SMA and momentum around 100, showing no actual strength."
"In the 4 hours chart indicators correct from oversold levels yet remain in negative territory, while 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope above current price, which helps keep the upside limited."
Sep 16, 2014
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USD/CAD completes the 1.1000 trip, but it holds
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CAD fell around 70 pips from 1.1070 in the latest few hours to test the 1.1000 level where the pair found buying interest that launched the pair back to 1.1020.
CAD gained strength after Canadian Shipments published better than expected numbers in July, expanding at a monthly pace of 2.5% vs. 1.0% forecasted and up from June’s 0.9% gain.
Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.1022, down 0.29% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1073 and low at 1.0998. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
USD/CAD levels
If the pair holds above the 1.1000, it will next resistances at 1.1035 and 1.1070. On the upside, supports are at 1.1000, 1.0970 and 1.0930.
Sep 16, 2014
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EUR/USD recovers its quietness and trades at 1.2935
FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a brief decline to 1.2920 and a shy test of MA 200 hours at 1.2965, the EUR/USD is now trading quietness around 1.2940.
Investors are focused on Wednesday's FOMC. As Valeria Bednarik from FXStreet comments: "If something, FED meeting on Wednesday can be the trigger market is waiting for to decide whether to resume the trend or begin a recovery."
Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2941, up 0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2967 and low at 1.2922. EUR/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.
EUR/USD levels
If the pair manages to break below 1.2940, it will face supports at 1.2920 and 1.2905. On the upside, resistances are at 1.2950, 1.2965 and 1.2980.
Sep 16, 2014
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Scottish independence referendum remains a close call – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to different opinion polls, the outcome from tomorrow’s Scottish referendum is yet far from decided, commented Anders Fischer, Analyst at Danske Bank.
Key Quotes
“Yesterday’s three polls (from Daily Telegraph, Survation and Scotsman) all put support for remaining in the UK at 52% with 48% backing independence, when undecided voters are excluded – and all suggested that support for a Yes vote was rising”.
“However, the three polls gave differing estimates for the proportion of voters still undecided, ranging from 14% to 6%”.
Sep 17, 2014
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United States Consumer Price Index (MoM) came in at -0.2% below forecasts (0%) in August
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Sep 17, 2014
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US: CPI (Aug) rose 1.7% (YoY)
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Department of Labour informed that US inflation figures measured by the CPI rose at an annual pace of 1.7% in August, missing estimates for a 1.9% gain. On a monthly basis, prices dropped 0.2%. Core CPI, which strips food and energy costs, rose 1.7% over the last twelve months and 0.0% inter-month.
Sep 17, 2014
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USD/JPY falls on weak US inflation
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US reported its first negative monthly CPI since October 2013 and a weaker than expected yearly inflation in August that put the USD under pressure as it hints more problems for the Fed in case they are thinking to hike rates.
The US is back on negative inflation in August with -0.2% MoM. First negative reading since October 2013. In the same line, yearly inflation was reported weaker than expected with 1.7% YoY, down from previous month of 1.9%. It is not a good news for those rate hike believers.
The USD/JPY fell to 107.10 after a 25-pip decline from 107.35 following US data. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 107.19, up 0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 107.37 and low at 107.09.
USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.
USD/JPY levels
Weak CPI data fueled a renewed dip within recent ranges for the greenback. According to Gerry Davies from FXBeat, there are options expiries at today's New York cut at 106.75 ($300 mln), 107.00 ($100 mln) and 107.25 ($200 mln).
If the pair extends negative figures, it will face next support at 107.00 and 106.80. On the upside, next frontiers are at 107.35, 107.40 and 107.60.
Sep 17, 2014
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EUR/USD jumps after US inflation data



FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD pushed to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session after data showed US consumer prices grew less than expected in August.


The greenback weakened across the board and EUR/USD surged to fresh highs as both the core and the headline US CPI came in at 1.7% year-over-year in August versus 1.9% expected. The CPI fell 0.2% MoM (0.0% exp) while the core was flat (vs +0.2% exp).


EUR/USD jumped 25 pips on the news and hit a peak of 1.2980 but lacked follow-through as investors seem unwilling to take big positions ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy statement. Markets are expecting a hawkish shift in Fed stance, so any change in forward guidance might increase the appeal of the US dollar.


EUR/USD technical levels


At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.2970, 0.09% above its opening price, with immediate resistances lining up at the 1.2994/1.3000 zone (Sept 16 high/psychological level), 1.3059 (21-day SMA) and 1.3100 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.2939 (10-day SMA), 1.2908 (Sept 15 & 12 low) and 1.2900 (psychological level).






Sep 17, 2014

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US: Housing Starts down to 0.956M in August
FXStreet (Łódź) - US Housing Starts were at 0.956M in August, down from 1.117M recorded in July, the US Census Bureau informed on Thursday. Consensus pointed to 1.040M.
Building Permits slid to 0.998M from 1.052M, below forecasts of 1.045M.
Sep 18, 2014
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Fed's Yellen: US economy improving but recession effects still evident
FXStreet (Łódź) - Speaking at an economic conference in Washington on Thursday, Fed chair Janet Yellen avoided the topic of monetary policy when delivering her prepared remarks.
• US economy seen improving, although recession effects persist.
• "Fed will continue promoting asset building, the US needs a greater diversification of assets.
• Lower-income households suffered most during the crisis, Yellen points out.
• Improving housing market will remain crucial for family assets.
Sep 18, 2014
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USD/JPY extends gains to 109.00
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US Dollar is extending its gains versus the Japanese Yen following better than expected jobless claims in the United States. The pair is performing fresh highs around 109.00.
Earlier in the day, the USD/JPY climbed to 108.85 where the pair found selling interest that launched it back to 108.50. Then the pair resumed its uptrend again and now it is pricing a news highs since September 2008 at 108.96.
Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 108.82, up 0.41% on the day, having posted a daily high at 108.97 and low at 108.31. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.
USD/JPY levels
If the pair manages to break above the 109.00, it will face next resistances at 10920 and 109.60. On the downside, supports are at 108.50, 108.30 and 108.70.
Sep 18, 2014
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EUR/SEK poised to decline further – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Stefan Mellin, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, believes the next movement in EUR/SEK will point south.
Key Quotes
“The SEK has underperformed versus all G10 currencies over the past year”.
“Given that no other G10 central bank has cut rates as aggressively as the Riksbank, one might conclude that it has been a reasonable depreciation of the krona”.
“The fact that the krona is now undervalued will make the Swedish export sector more competitive and help fuel inflation”.
“We think that USD/SEK will continue to go higher based on relative cyclical arguments and for the same reason we see lower levels in EUR/SEK in the year ahead”.
“The SEK may trade with a risk premium in the next couple of weeks following the election but, in our view, the next big leg in EUR/SEK is lower”.
Sep 19, 2014
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Oil price finishes the week flat
FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood observes that following a few ups and downs this week the price of oil has ended flat.
Key quotes
"Ups and downs had primarily to do with the Brent expiry and the US inventory figures showing a big build in stocks."
"In addition we had a slight drop in Libyan exports of a temporary nature as rockets went off near a big field but with Buzzard coming back the market remains well supplied."
"Scotland has decided and voted conclusively to remain with the Union, with a high turnout of 86% they voted 55%-45% to be better together."
"Not even the late intervention of Andy Murray, the Scottish tennis player who used to be in the world’s top ten, could alter the result."
”As the Oil & Gas industry was the most affected sector by the vote there will be sighs of relief from Aberdeen and throughout the rest of the business."
"Finding the extra 10 billion barrels that the Yes camp claimed would be nice though…"
Sep 19, 2014
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Session Recap: GBP doesn’t go too far after Scotland votes 'no'
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The main event of the session was of course the reassurance Scottish majority decided to stay in the UK after weeks of uncertainty.
Cable rallied on the news but most of the ‘no’ vote was already priced in, so investors choose to take profits instead, sending GBP/USD back below 1.6400 after being as high as 1.6523. GBP/USD was last flat at 1.6380.
There was little in terms of economic data and majors have been dedicated themselves to reverse yesterday’s courses. EUR/USD resumed the slide and fell as low as 1.2860 after being rejected by the 1.2930 zone, while USD/JPY pulled back from fresh 6-year highs to the 108.80 area. Commodity currencies were little changed.
Elsewhere, European equities were broadly higher and US futures pointed to a positive opening. There is no first-tier data scheduled so investors might take time to weigh recent developments.
Main Headlines in Europe:
Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (-0.8%) in August
What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Scotiabank and OCBC Bank
Gold holds near 8 ½-month low
Scotland decides to stay in the UK
EMU: Current Account surplus widens to €18.7B in July against forecasts
Oil price finishes the week flat
Sep 19, 2014
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Draghi could comment on TLTRO on Monday - FXStreet




FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points to ECB head Mario Draghi's testimony before the European Parliament's Economic and Monetary Committee on Monday as one of the most important events next week.


Key quotes


"We could have a quite entertaining day for a change: he will likely comment on the TLTRO results, probably with an optimistic stance which may give the EUR/USD some intraday support, a chance to add to shorts."


"A dovish stance will pressure the common currency, which means he can do little to fight the dominant trend."






Sep 19, 2014

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Technical snap shots on majors and crosses - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities gave us a snap shot of the technicals across a number of majors and crosses at the close of this week's session.
"EUR/USD retains a weak undertone but looks oversold short-term; only gains through 1.2930/35 would signal any scope for near-term strength".
"USD/JPY backs away from 109+ levels and the daily chart looks toppish short-term; expect losses to remain limited for now, however".
"EUR/GBP's break below the recent range base stalls and reverses today; the broader trend is lower, however, and we favour fading short-term GBP losses".
"EUR/PLN weakness should extend below 4.1725".
"AUD/NZD will continue to reflect AUD under-performance; look for a drop back to 1.07/1.08".
Sep 20, 2014
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What now? - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale noted that the Scots have voted to remain in the United Kingdom, removing a major threat for the UK economy and sterling and looks ahead to what’s next?
Key Quotes:
" FX markets can re-focus on monetary policy divergence and as the Federal Reserve marches towards the exit from QE and ZIRP, the dollar will rally "
"For now, the response in equity, credit and emerging markets is far more sanguine than during 2013's ‘Taper Tantrum' but USD will make gains across G10 FX. GBP/USD is a strategic sell, USD/JPY is targeting 110.50 next."
"EUR/USD positioning is still heavily short but a disappointing TLTRO take up maintains pressure on the ECB to ‘do more' (even if all they can really do is engineer a weaker currency). NZD is vulnerable to election news this weekend remains a short vs USD along with AUD. And after last weekend's Swedish elections, we remain bullish of USD/SEK and NOK/SEK."
Sep 20, 2014
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Colombia Trade Balance fell from previous $347M to $-799.4M in July
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Sep 20, 2014
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EUR/USD remains subdued near 1.2850
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD is keeping the narrow range in the boundaries of the 1.2850 area on Wednesday, leaving behind the mixed results from the German IFO.
EUR/USD down from 1.2900
The correction lower from yesterday’s tops around 1.2900 the figure seems to have found decent support in the 1.2840 neighbourhood today, although the IFO results for the month of September could limit intraday gains. “The target indicated at 1.2880 yesterday was exceeded with a high of 1.2900. While the subsequent drop is expected to extend lower for today, any down-move is not expected to move below the recent low near 1.2816. On the upside, 1.2900 is acting as a very strong resistance now”.
EUR/USD key levels
The pair is now up just 0.01% at 1.2849 with the next resistance at 1.2901 (high Sep.23) ahead of 1.2929 (high Sep.19) and then 1.2931 (high Sep.18). On the downside, a break below 1.2843 (low Sep.23) would open the door to 1.2816 (low Sep.22) and finally 1.2800 (psychological level).
Sep 24, 2014
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AUD/USD could slip towards 0.8820/00 – OCBC Ban
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, sees the likeliness of the AUD to decline to the 0.8822/00 area vs. the greenback.
Key Quotes
“With investors still preoccupied with China/global growth concerns, the pair may remain under the weather in the current USD/risk appetite environment and the next visible support is expected towards 0.8820 and then 0.8800 if 0.8900 is not re-taken.
Sep 24, 2014
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USD/JPY attempting a consolidation phase? – UOB
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Market Strategist Que Ser Leang at UOB Group, sees the possibility of the pair to commence a consolidation pattern.
Key Quotes
“While we anticipated the short-term USD weakness, the down-move exceeded our 108.45/50 target with a low of 108.26”.
“The subsequent rebound is likely part of a consolidation phase and not the start of the next bullish up-leg. Expect sideway trading today, likely between 108.30 and 109.00”.
Sep 24, 2014
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GBP/USD needs to break above 1.6415 for further upside – OCBC Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, the sterling needs to convincingly surpass 1.6415 in order to facilitate the way towards the upper-1.6900s.
Key Quotes
“Cable meanwhile may remain somewhat detached while attempting to establish a foothold within the 1.6300-1.6400 zone with GBP outperformance also manifesting via the EUR-GBP since the Scottish referendum”.
“In the near term, any ability to pierce and hold above 1.6415 may pave the way to 1.6487”.
Sep 24, 2014
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GB/USD declines as dollar picks up some pace
FXStreet (London) - GBP/USD has declined through the session as the dollar gains some momentum after earlier consolidation from the dollar.
USD struggling for momentum
USD has been range-bound in recent trading. We heard some hawkish comments from Kansas Fed Esther George yesterday, but as a non-voting FOMC member, her comments failed to create many waves. Instead more attention is likely to be paid to Chicago Fed chairman Charles Evans and new Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester when they speak today.
GBP/USD is currently trading at USD1.6360, declining 0.2 percent on the session after earlier gains to USD1.6415.
Sep 24, 2014
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GBP/USD key support at 1.6275 - FXStreet
FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik comments that GBP/USD's key support is now at 1.6275, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Key quotes
"As commented several times on these daily updates, the weakness Pound may see on dollar strength will be far less important than EUR or JPY one as the BOE is also expected to rise rates sooner than later."
"Technically, the 4 hours chart presents a mild bearish tone, with price below its 20 SMA and indicators heading lower into negative territory."
"Having held for most of these last two weeks above the mentioned Fibonacci level, a clear break below it is required to confirm a new leg down, eyeing then an approach to 1.6220 price zone, where the pair presents multiple intraday highs and lows."
"To the upside, the key resistance stands at 1.6340/50 price zone and approaches to the area may be seen as selling opportunities."
Sep 25, 2014
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USD/CHF hits fresh 14-month high above 0.9500
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF extended gains and printed a fresh 14-month high Thursday as the greenback continues to strengthen across the board amid diverging rate outlooks between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks.
While the Fed is expected to start its rate hiking cycle in 2015, speculations have been growing the Swiss National Bank could even set negative interest rates.
USD/CHF rose for a second day in a row and broke above 0.9500 to hit its highest level since July 2013 at 0.9514 before easing back below 0.9500. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9495, recording a 0.43% gain on the day.
USD/CHF levels to watch
In terms of technical level, immediate resistances are seen at 0.9514 (Sept 25 high), 0.9533 (Jul 15 2013 high) and 0.9600 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports could be found at 0.9452 (intraday low), 0.9390 (Sept 24 low) and 0.9354 (Sept 23 low).
Sep 25, 2014
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EUR/USD immune to US data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD barely moved and continues to trade near the 1.2700 level following the latest string of US data which came mainly in line with expectations.
US durable goods orders fell 18.2% in August versus an expected drop of 18% and following a 22.6% rise in July. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.7% as expected. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims rose to 293K in the latest week versus 300K of consensus and following 280K registered the previous week.
With data close to forecast, EUR/USD showed virtually no reaction and continues to hover around 1.2720, down 0.46%, having recovered from a fresh cycle low of 1.2696 scored earlier on the day.
EUR/USD technical outlook
“Current slide from 1.2864 high broke through 1.2820 lows and the general downtrend has been renewed, targeting 1.2630, en route to 1.2440”, said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at Deltastock.com. “Initial intraday resistance is seen at 1.2760, followed by the major hurdle at 1.2820 and crucial on the upside is 1.2900 zone”.
Sep 25, 2014
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USD/JPY extends gains above 109.00
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now resuming its upside vs. the Japanese currency, pushing USD/JPY beyond the 109.00 handle and challenging session highs at the same time.
USD/JPY higher post data, looks to US
The JPY lost further momentum after the inflation figures in the Japanese economy showed results in general in line with market expectations, with the critical National CPI ex-Fresh Food advancing at an annual rate of 3.1%, pointing to some stabilization in the inflation. Ahead in the day, the US GDP annualized is due ahead of the Reuters/Michigan index, being the potential drivers for the pair’s price action throughout the rest of the session. “August CPI numbers were flat to softer than prior expectations and any resultant and heightened expectations for further BOJ initiatives may keep the JPY structurally vulnerable. In the near term however, potential risk aversion may serve to underpin the JPY within a 108.00-109.00 corridor”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank.
USD/JPY levels to consider
As of writing the pair is up 0.33% at 109.11 and a breakout of 109.37 (high Sep.25) would expose 109.46 (2014 high Sep.18) and finally 109.57 (high Aug.29 2008). On the flip side, the initial support lines up at 108.47 (low Sep.26) ahead of 108.46 (low Sep.24) and then 108.25 (low Sep.23).
Sep 26, 2014
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Gold turns lower but remains on track for weekly gains
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Gold pulled back on Friday but remained on track for a small weekly gain after 3 weeks of losses.
The yellow metal posted a fresh 2014 low at $1,206.84 on Thursday, but managed to recover ground as the slump in US stocks sent investors looking for safe-havens. However, the recovery attempt stalled at the $1,230 zone at the beginning of the European session. With the metal having retraced completely intraday gains, gold is currently trading at $1,220 an ounce, 0.1% below its opening price.
Gold remains vulnerable near the $1,200 level as the greenback headed for an eleventh week of gains.
Sep 26, 2014
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ECB's Coeure optimistic on the next TLTRO take-up
FXStreet (Łódź) - ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure assured at the IMF/Bank of Slovenia seminar on Friday that each of the upcoming, consecutive seven rounds of targeted longer-term refinancing operations should see a bigger take-up than the first one.
As soon as the ECB's Eurozone banking sector probe is finalized , the financial institutions will be more disposed to provide credit, Coeure said.
Furthermore, he suggested that nominal rates in the Eurozone would remain at low levels for an extended period of time, real interest rates should decrease.
Sep 26, 2014
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EUR/USD finds support ahead of 1.2700
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD came under renewed pressure and fell to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the American session after US GDP for the second quarter was upwardly revised (4.6%from 4.2%) as expected.
EUR/USD dropped and hit a low of 1.2710 where buyers helped to contain the slide ahead of the psychological level and its 22-month low of 1.2696 scored Thursday. EUR/USD however, remains vulnerable and on track to post its eleventh weekly loss in a row amid diverging monetary policies outlooks between US and the Eurozone.
EUR/USD technical perspective
“Short term, the EUR/USD 1 hour chart shows price extending below its 20 SMA and momentum heading lower into negative territory, albeit RSI bounces from oversold levels”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart the overall technical stance remains clearly bearish, with a break below 1.2700 required to confirm a new downward movement towards 1.2660 price zone”.
Sep 26, 2014
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Rupee jumps on S&P's revision of India's outlook up to stable - TD Securities
FXStreet (Łódź) - Cristian Maggio, Head of Emerging Markets Research at TD Securities comments on the rupee's reaction to S&P' decision to upgrade India's outlook to stable from negative, while keeping the sovereign rating at BBB-.
Key quotes
"The outlook change reflects S&P’s view that 'India's improved political setting heralds a more conducive environment for reforms, providing a boost to growth prospects and the potential for improved fiscal management'.”
"This statement is particularly significant as the sub-potential growth and wide fiscal deficit were previously citied as India’s major weaknesses and possible causes of downgrades."
"The immediate reaction to the announcement was USDINR falling 0.5% to 61.08."
"1m NDF moved in tandem with spot and is currently exchanged at 61.53, so still nearly half a percentage point below the levels prior to the S&P review."
"This supports our view that the improving macroeconomic outlook will continue to bear positive effects on Indian asset pricing."
"EM FX also seemed to recover on this event today."
"At the same time, we are wary that changing expectations on the Fed’s resumption of monetary tightening could trigger further adjustments in the EM space in the coming months. For these reasons, we prefer RV strategies to trade the INR long leg."
Sep 26, 2014
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GBP/USD bulls ducking for cover once again
FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.6266, down -0.32% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6335 and low at 1.6259.
GBP/USD has taken a hit into lower levels that are becoming critical in the advent of the recent decline that had the bulls running for cover where lows at 1.6052 made us wonder if we were back towards 1.58/1.60 territory again. We are lower on a number of counts at the end of this week with essentially the greenback outperforming yet again, with indeed Yellen’s statements of late are being backed up. The US GDP was firstly revised up to 4.6% in the Q2 from previously reported of 4.2% but the final number was in line of expectations. That, however, was highest figure since Q4 2010 and the catalyst for a firmer greenback today. PCE was falling in line at 2.3% up on 1.4% previous and the, although missing expectations slightly, it rose to 84.6 in September up from 82.5 on the previous month. A solid ending to the week for a good performing US economy again.
GBP/USD note worthy levels
With spot trading at 1.6267, we can see next resistance ahead at 1.6275, 1.6282 (Daily Classic S1), 1.6290, 1.6309 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 1.6312 (Daily Classic PP). Support below can be found at 1.6259 (Daily Low), 1.6244 (Daily Classic S2), 1.6214 (Daily Classic S3), 1.6126 (Weekly Classic S1) and 1.6105.
Sep 26, 2014
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EUR/USD downward pressure seeing no end - FXStreet
FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik notes that EUR/USD has fallen as low as 1.2570 on Tuesday, as Eurozone inflation data showed the risk of deflation in the Eurozone is still alive.
Key quotes
"The pair has reached extreme oversold readings in the hourly chart and bounced some, hovering around the 1.2600 figure early US session, still quite heavy according to technical readings, as per 20 SMA heading lower well above current price, momentum heading strongly south deep in negative territory, and RSI still at 23."
"In the 4 hours chart 20 SMA capped the upside earlier on the day maintaining a strong bearish slope, while indicators head strongly south in negative territory, giving no signs of a possible upward correction."
"Former low at 1.2660 should now attract sellers if reached, while a break below mentioned low should see the pair extending its decline down to 1.2540/50 price zone."
Sep 30, 2014
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EUR/USD regains 1.2600 and beyond
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The common currency managed to bounce off sub-1.2600 lows during the European morning, now lifting EUR/USD back to the 1.2615/20 band.
EUR/USD recovers after consumer confidence
Spot is now looking to consolidate the rebound above the 1.2600 handle, boosted by the unexpected drop to 86 in the US Consumer Confidence for the month of September. There are no more data releases in the region today, with the next risk event being tomorrow’s Chinese manufacturing PMI gauged by NHS. (51.2 exp.) ahead of the final figures of the manufacturing PMIs and GDP in the bloc. Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, noted, “all studies warn of strong downside momentum and the only warning on the chart is the RSI which has now fallen firmly into oversold territory. However without a supporting warning signal, EUR is likely to continue its downward trend. The next level of support lies at 1.2500”.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As of writing the pair is retreating 0.44% at 1.2628 and a break below 1.2561 (low Sep.6 2012) would target 1.2502 (76.4% of 1.2042-1.3995) en route to 1.2493 (low Aug.31). On the flip side, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.2664 (low Sep.29) followed by1.2715 (high Sep.29) and finally 1.2761 (high Sep.26).
Sep 30, 2014
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USD/JPY reaches new yearly high at 109.84- FXStreet
FXStreet (Łódź) - As FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out, USD/JPY hit a fresh yearly high on Tuesday before pulling back slightly.
Key quotes
"The 1 hour chart shows price well above 100 and 200 SMAs both maintaining a shy bullish slope, while indicators eased some from overbought territory."
"In the 4 hours chart indicators also turned lower but hold well above their midlines, showing no actual upward strength, neither signs of a retracement."
"The dominant bullish trend prevails regardless mild positive technical readings, and retracements are still seen as buying opportunities now on approaches to the 109.00 price zone."
Sep 30, 2014
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EUR bounce not ruled out, but trend remains bearish – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Flemming Nielsen, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, the scenario for the euro remains negative, albeit occasional rebounds should not be ruled out.
Key Quotes
“In the global FX markets, the EUR declined yesterday on the back of a much lower than expected reading for euro-zone core inflation, which fell to 0.7% y/y in September”.
“The decline in core inflation suggests that declining wage increases are adding to the downside pressure on inflation”.
“This is just yet another issue putting pressure on the ECB to do more. EUR/USD ended the day half a figure lower around 1.2630 and according to our short-term financial models, the cross remains in oversold territory, trading 1.1 standard deviation below our model’s fair value estimate of 1.275”.
“However, while the decline in EUR/USD admittedly has materialised much faster than we expected and both valuation and positioning (see IMM Positioning from 29 September) look stretched increasing the likelihood of a rebound, we still expect EUR/USD to continue to trade lower in the coming months”.
“In the near term, we expect a solid US labour market report on Friday to add further support to the USD, while the ECB is expected to keep the door open for QE in connection with its monetary meeting on Thursday”.
“We expect that speculations of additional ECB easing (QE) will remain a theme in market in the coming months – this will weigh further on the EUR”.
Oct 01, 2014
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Disappointing EMU PMIs push EUR/USD below 1.2600 - FXStreet
FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that the lower than expected Eurozone PMI Manufacturing numbers for September weighed on the EUR/USD which dropped below the 1.2600 level.
Key quotes
"More pressure on the ECB indeed for tomorrow, let’s see if Draghi decides to keep on backing up his words with action."
"In the meantime, the EUR/USD posted a daily low so far of 1.2584, trading now back around the 1.2600 figure."
"The technical picture continues to be clearly bearish according to the 4 hours chart, as indicators managed to correct all of their oversold conditions reached on Tuesday, while price failed to extend beyond the 1.6230 price zone."
"The same chart shows price below a strongly bearish 20 SMA and indicators below their midlines, with both momentum and RSI heading south."
"A daily descendant tend coming from 1.2880 price zone stands around 1.2650, a few pips below mentioned 20 SMA, and recoveries up to that level should be seen as selling opportunities."
"Renewed selling pressure on the other hand, pushing the pair below yesterday’s low of 1.2570, should see the pair extending its decline down to 1.2530 area first, and down to 1.2500/10 as the lowest for the day."
Oct 01, 2014
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AUD/USD holds above year low
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Australian dollar is staging a minor recovery after underperforming during the Asian session and hitting a fresh 8-month low weighed by disappointing Australian data.
AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.8663, just 4 pips away from the year low and climbed back above the 0.87 mark during the European trade. 0.8659 was the January three-and-a-half year low.
However, the subsequent bounce has been capped by the 0.8730 zone, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8715, still 0.34% below its opening price.
AUD/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.8750 (intraday high), 0.8766 (Sept 30 high) and 0.8800 (psychological level). On the other hand, if AUD falls below 0.8659, next supports could be found at 0.8632 (Jul 19 2010 low) and 0.8600 (psychological level).
Oct 01, 2014
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EUR/CHF rallies on intervention rumors
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/CHF spiked to fresh weekly highs during the European session amid rumors of intervention by the Swiss National Bank.
Market chatter the SNB is unofficially buying at 1.2050 has lifted EUR/CHF to 1.2089 from a low of 1.2052. At time of writing, EUR/CHF is trading at 1.2075, 0.12% above its opening price.
The SNB placed a floor for EUR/CHF at 1.2000 back in September 2011 aimed to prevent further appreciation of the franc as the Eurozone economic crisis intensified.
Meanwhile, USD/CHF advanced to a daily high of 0.9592, stalling a few pips ahead of yesterday’s highs and the 0.9600 level.
Oct 01, 2014
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AUD/USD recovery capped at 0.8725
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie is trading down again versus the US Dollar after a brief bounce from yearly lows around 0.8660 and a rejection at 0.8725. However, the AUD/USD is currently performing an early jump following ADP data.
The ADP added 213K new payrolls in September; above expectations and highest since June. US created 629K new private ADP jobs in the Q2. USD reaction hasn't been too big as traders are looking ahead to ISM manufacturing.
Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8705, down 0.46% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8751 and low at 0.8663.
AUD/USD levels
AUD/USD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. If the pair extends recovery, it will face next resistances at 0.8725, 0.8750 and 0.8765. On the downside, supports are at 0.8685 and 0.8660.
Oct 01, 2014
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EUR/USD wanders around 1.2600
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD continues to trade erratically around the 1.2600 level, unable to set a short-term direction as investors remain sidelined ahead of the European Central Bank decision Thursday and the US nonfarm payrolls Friday.
With latest recovery attempt capped by 1.2630, EUR/USD has traded within a narrow range, currently at the 1.2605 area, just a few pips below its opening price, ahead of the US ISM manufacturing PMI. Consensus points to a 58.5 reading in September versus 59.0 the previous month.
EUR/USD technical perspective
“In the 4 hours chart the bearish tone prevails, albeit RSI aims higher above 30, supporting current upward correction: critical resistance stands around 1.2650, a daily descendant trend line coming from 1.2880 region, and 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet.
Oct 01, 2014
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United States ISM Prices Paid registered at 59.5 above expectations (57) in September
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Oct 01, 2014
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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change below forecasts (0.6M) in September 26: Actual (-1.363M)
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Oct 01, 2014
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GBP/USD tests 1.6250 after US data; but rejected
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is advancing versus the US dollar as the pound is joining the short term USD weakness following disappointing economic data in the United States. The pair, however, wasn't able to hold levels and now it is trading back to 1.6220.
The US manufacturing PMI was reported down to 57.5 in September; the components showed that strong output and new orders growth were maintained; fastest increase in payrolls since 2012. ISM manufacturing was down to 56.6; employment component down to 54.6.
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6220, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6253 and low at 1.6162. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.
GBP/USD levels
If the pair extends rejection, it will face supports at 1.6200, 1.6180 and 1.6160. On upside, resistances are at 1.6250, 1.6270 and 1.6285.
Oct 01, 2014
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ECB keeps rates unchanged after August cut
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20% respectively.
The ECB cut all three rates by 10 bps last month and announced an asset buying program - which details will be unveiled next week - aimed to provide liquidity to the real economy to fight low inflation and support growth.
Attention now turns to ECB President, Mario Draghi, who will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 12:30 GMT.
Oct 02, 2014
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EUR/JPY rises slightly after ECB, Draghi eyed
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/JPY edged a few pips higher but remained within its daily range after the European Central Bank decided to keep rates unchanged as widely expected after cutting all three rates last month.
The ECB left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.05% and the deposit rate at -0.2% in today’s meeting. EUR/JPY reached a knee-jerk high of 137.51 but lacked momentum as attention now turns to ECB President, Mario Draghi, who will speak in a conference at 12:30 GMT.
At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at the 137.45 zone, virtually unchanged on the day, having recovered from a 3-week low of 136.94 scored earlier on the day.
Oct 02, 2014
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ECB's Draghi gives details of ABS and covered bond purchase programsd
FXStreet (Łódź) - At the press conference following ECB's announcement that it will remain on hold in October ECB president Mario Draghi says that the details of the ABS and covered bond purchases have been discussed at the meeting.
• The programs will last at least 2 years.
• Purchases of covered bonds will start in mid-October.
• ABS will be bought from Q4 2014.
• Purchases are expected to have a sizable impact on the balance sheet.
• They will generate positive spillovers to other markets.
• They will reinforce fact of significant and increasing differences in the monetary policy cycle between major advanced economies.
Oct 02, 2014
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EUR/GBP advances as Draghi speaks
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP pushed to fresh daily highs as Draghi speaks in a press conference after the ECB decided to keep rates unchanged, as expected.
Draghi sounded dovish as expected, reiterating risks remain to the downside and low inflation is expected to persist. He also said the bank is ready to use further unconventional measures if inflation remains too low for too long. ECB President also said further details of the program will be unveiled in a press release at 13:30 GMT (3:30 PM).
Despite the dovish stance, EUR/GBP managed to advance a few pips and hit a 1-week high of 0.7836. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7830, 0.43% above its opening price.
Oct 02, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates
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octafx_newsupdates-1_zps8241bbb2.png

 

 

AUD/USD fighting at the 0.8800 area
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The 0.8815 rejection in the AUD/USD that paused the Aussie's recovery from 0.8660, found support at 0.8765 where the pair bounced to test back at 0.8800. However, the movement seems not enough enough to look for further highs and now it is pricing at 0.8780.
Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8783, up 0.56% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8818 and low at 0.8723. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
AUD/USD levels
If the pair extends advance, it will fce next resistances at 0.8815, 0.8825 and 0.8850. On the downside, supports are at 0.8765, 0.8700 and 0.8660.
Oct 02, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates
oie_EgQvfWMuiI6O_zps5c35ec25.gif
octafx_reg.png

 

 


octafx_newsupdates-1_zps8241bbb2.png

 

 

AUD/USD fighting at the 0.8800 area
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The 0.8815 rejection in the AUD/USD that paused the Aussie's recovery from 0.8660, found support at 0.8765 where the pair bounced to test back at 0.8800. However, the movement seems not enough enough to look for further highs and now it is pricing at 0.8780.
Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8783, up 0.56% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8818 and low at 0.8723. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.
AUD/USD levels
If the pair extends advance, it will fce next resistances at 0.8815, 0.8825 and 0.8850. On the downside, supports are at 0.8765, 0.8700 and 0.8660.
Oct 02, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates
oie_EgQvfWMuiI6O_zps5c35ec25.gif
octafx_reg.png

 

 

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