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United Kingdom Index of Services (3M/3M): 0.7% (October) vs previous 0.8%
Read more in Forex News
Dec 23, 2014
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LME Inventory Update
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The warehouse stocks data released daily by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a rise in the inventory levels of Copper and nickel, while the inventory levels of Lead, Zinc and aluminium declined.
Lead and zinc stocks decreased by 25 and 1225 tonnes respectively, while aluminium stocks witnessed another massive fall of 9925 tonnes. Meanwhile, copper stocks increased by 3525 tonnes and nickel inventory went up by 582 tonnes.
Dec 23, 2014
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US GDP upward revised to 5 percent
FXStreet (London) - The final reading of US GDP, adjusted for price changes, increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, upwards revised from the second reading of 3.9 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.
According to the BEA, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.
Dec 23, 2014
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USD/JPY extends gains on strong US GDP
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - USD/JPY pushed a tad higher and printed fresh highs after the release of much better-than-expected US gross domestic product. However, a big miss in durable good orders tempered dollar鈥檚 rally.
USD/JPY extended intraday gains and hit its highest level since in two weeks at 120.47 so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading just below recent highs, recording a 0.35% increase Tuesday.
US data showed GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0% in the Q3, up from the Q2 growth rate of 4.6% and the strongest pace in 11 years. However, not all was good news, as durable goods orders fell 0.7% in November, missing by far expectations of a 1.8% gain.
USD/JPY technical levels
As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 121.00 (psychological level) and 121.83 (2014 high Dec 8). On the flip side, supports could be found at 119.95 (daily low) and 119.30 (Dec 22 low).
Dec 23, 2014
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EUR/USD breaks below 1.2200 after strong US GDP




FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - The dollar strengthened across the board and dragged EUR/USD below 1.2200 to fresh 2 陆-year lows after data showed US GDP growth at the strongest pace since Q3 2003.


US gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0% in the Q3, marking the strongest pace in 11 years. However, durable goods orders fell 0.7% in November, missing by far expectations of a 1.8% gain.


EUR/USD broke below 1.2200 and stops were triggered, sending the pair quickly to its lowest level since August 2012 at 1.2182. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2190, recording a 0.32% loss on the day.


EUR/USD levels to watch


Immediate supports are now seen at 1.2167 (Aug 3 2012 low) and 1.2133 (Aug 2 2012 low). On the other hand, next resistances could be found at 1.2245 (daily high) and 1.2271 (Dec 22 high).







Dec 23, 2014

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US Treasury yields extend post US GDP gains
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the short-end and the long-end of the treasury market curve extended gains today after recovering losses witnessed in the Asian session.
The yields have extended gains witnessed in the previous session after a surprisingly strong US third-quarter GDP report increased bets of sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the US.
The 10-yr yields in the US rose 2.7 basis points to 2.284%, while the 30-yr yield is up 1 basis points to 2.861%. Moreover, the 10-yr yield had gained more than 10 basis points in the previous session to finish at 2.26%.
Meanwhile, at the short-end, the 2-year yield, a barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, continues to hover around the 3.5 year high of 0.747%. However, the 1-year yield has inched slightly lower to 0.242%.
The yield may continue to rise on bets of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike as the markets lack fresh fundamental trigger as we move into the new year.
Dec 25, 2014
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Strong weekly US jobs data pushed EUR/USD back below 1.22 levels
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The fourth consecutive decline in the US weekly jobless claims pushed the EUR/USD below 1.22 levels, after having clocked a high of 1.2220 ahead of the data.
The EUR/USD pair now trades 0.20% higher for the day at 1.2198 levels. The pair fell from the day鈥檚 high immediately after the labor department in the US reported the initial jobless claims for the past week at a 7-week low of seasonally adjusted 280,000. Moreover, the strong labor market data comes a day after the commerce department in the US confirmed US third quarter GDP at 5.0%.
EUR/USD Technical Levels
The pair has an immediate resistance located at 1.2220, above which another resistance is seen at 1.2247 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1.2164 and 1.2132 levels.
Dec 25, 2014
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Another Doji on the daily charts for EUR/AUD
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/AUD pair is on its way to witness a second consecutive Doji candle on its daily chart, as the pair hovers largely unchanged for the day.
The pair currently trades at 1.5040, compared to the previous session鈥檚 close of 1.5033. The pair has swung on both sides and is likely to settle largely unchanged for the day, similar to the moves witnessed on Tuesday, The gains were capped after a strong weekly jobless data in the US pushed the EUR/USD back below 1.22 levels, thereby erasing gains in the EUR/AUD cross. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD has inched marginally higher by 0.13%, which further capped gains in the EUR/AUD pair.
EUR/AUD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5062 and 1.5082 (10-DMA). Meanwhile, support is seen at 1.4989 and 1.4978 levels.
Dec 25, 2014
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GBP/USD firming up into the close
FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.5552, up 0.30% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5559 and low at 1.5500.
GBP/USD has risen back to the support of the 1.5540 level that was broken yesterday when the pair broke down through the 1.56 handle again. US yields improved on the back of the US data flows of this week.
We started out with the Q3 GDP offering the highest growth since 2003. Today we had the fourth consecutive decline in the US weekly jobless claims. This has underpinned the positive outlook for 2015 in the US. In the UK, growth continues to be disappointing. Technically, support lies at 1.5486, while resistance lies at recent congestion of 1.5590.
Dec 26, 2014
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GBP/USD firming up into the close
FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.5552, up 0.30% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5559 and low at 1.5500.
GBP/USD has risen back to the support of the 1.5540 level that was broken yesterday when the pair broke down through the 1.56 handle again. US yields improved on the back of the US data flows of this week.
We started out with the Q3 GDP offering the highest growth since 2003. Today we had the fourth consecutive decline in the US weekly jobless claims. This has underpinned the positive outlook for 2015 in the US. In the UK, growth continues to be disappointing. Technically, support lies at 1.5486, while resistance lies at recent congestion of 1.5590.
Dec 26, 2014
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Wall street closing: Merry Christmas from Wall Street
FXStreet (Guatemala) - As we close for Christmas, Stocks on Wall Street erased the gains in the last moments of the markets this week.
This put an end to a five-day run of gains in the Dow that crossed above 18,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 ended up at 2,081 falling to just 0.2%.
The US data of late has been the instigator for a positive end to the year while stocks have been supported on the Fed and their intentions for 2015. The focus from here will remain with the Fed and timings of a rate hike in the US while geopolitical tensions may be a risk that we will remain cautious around.
Dec 26, 2014
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Boxing Day Update: Euro below $1.2200, as yen weakens
FXStreet (London) - Price action looks sluggish in gaining momentum considering key markets such as Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, the UK, Canada and much of Europe are all on holiday, although New York will be open for business.
EUR/USD has declined throughout todays European session, following an overnight high at 1.2201. Spot is now down 0.26% on the day and trading at 1.2194.
Cable remains more stable, up 0.02% on the day at 1.5554, trading in near ten-pip range. USD/JPY is up 0.16% as 120.29 with price also range bound between 120.40-120.20. USD/CHF is up 0.22% at 0.9860, just below the daily high at 09864.
Yesterday as much of the world ate turkey, minced pies and sipped sherry, Japan released a barrage of economic data. The National Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4%, just below expectations of 2.5% and 2.9% previous. The jobless rate in Japan remain at 3.5%.
Looking to commodities, Gold is up 1.14% on the day at $1,186.90, just below the daily high at 1,188.80. WTI Crude is up 0.77% at 56.25, while Brent sits at 60.46, up 0.37%.
Overnight, the Nikkei closed up 0.06% at 17,818.96. Looking to US futures, we see the potential for a higher open, off the back of all time record highs in the S&P 500 and DJIA prior to Christmas in one the strongest Santa Clause rallies of all time.
The DJIA closed at a new record high of 18,030.21, the 37th record high this year, while the S&P 500 failed to close at a record high, but posted a new intraday record high on Tuesday. Presently, DJIA futures are up 0.21% at 18,025.50 while S&P 500 futures are up 0.19% at 2,082.65.
Dec 26, 2014
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Boxing Day Update: Euro below $1.2200, as yen weakens
FXStreet (London) - Price action looks sluggish in gaining momentum considering key markets such as Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, the UK, Canada and much of Europe are all on holiday, although New York will be open for business.
EUR/USD has declined throughout todays European session, following an overnight high at 1.2201. Spot is now down 0.26% on the day and trading at 1.2194.
Cable remains more stable, up 0.02% on the day at 1.5554, trading in near ten-pip range. USD/JPY is up 0.16% as 120.29 with price also range bound between 120.40-120.20. USD/CHF is up 0.22% at 0.9860, just below the daily high at 09864.
Yesterday as much of the world ate turkey, minced pies and sipped sherry, Japan released a barrage of economic data. The National Consumer Price Index (YoY) came in at 2.4%, just below expectations of 2.5% and 2.9% previous. The jobless rate in Japan remain at 3.5%.
Looking to commodities, Gold is up 1.14% on the day at $1,186.90, just below the daily high at 1,188.80. WTI Crude is up 0.77% at 56.25, while Brent sits at 60.46, up 0.37%.
Overnight, the Nikkei closed up 0.06% at 17,818.96. Looking to US futures, we see the potential for a higher open, off the back of all time record highs in the S&P 500 and DJIA prior to Christmas in one the strongest Santa Clause rallies of all time.
The DJIA closed at a new record high of 18,030.21, the 37th record high this year, while the S&P 500 failed to close at a record high, but posted a new intraday record high on Tuesday. Presently, DJIA futures are up 0.21% at 18,025.50 while S&P 500 futures are up 0.19% at 2,082.65.
Dec 26, 2014
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Boxing Day Update: Euro and Yen trudge lower as Gold gains
FXStreet (London) - While much of the world sits back and enjoys the first of many upcoming turkey and stuffing sandwiches, markets have been trudging along with little in the way of volume or volatility to guide them.
The euro is down against the dollar by -0.4%, with spot dipping holding 1.2200 to where it currently trading at 1.2177. Elsewhere, yen continued to weaken against the dollar, sliding as far as 120.46 before recovering to where spot now sits at 120.39, up 0.24% on the day.
USD/CHF is up 0.42% on the day at 0.9879, offering a mirror to the euro鈥檚 movements, while sterling remains subdued against the dollar, up 0.06% at 1.5560.
AUD/USD is flat on the day at 0.8118 having initially dipped to find support at 0.8105, climbing to 0.8132, before declining again. USD/CAD is down -0.14% at 1.1608.
Metals are the main mover of the day, up 1.77% at $1,194.54, with COMEX Silver up 2.55% at $16.11. Energies are in the red with WTI down -0.27% at $55.69 and Brent -0.22% at $60.11. Natural Gas is below the $3 mark for the first time since 2012, trading at $2.98 , down -1.75%.
In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed up 0.06% at 17,818.96, while in the US, markets are are all up. The DJIA is up 0.33% at 18,088.87, the S&P 500 up 1.10% at 2,089.80 and the Nasdaq up 0.81% at 4,796.71.
Dec 26, 2014
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GBP/JPY consolidates above 187.00
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - The pound retreated against the yen during the last hours but managed to hold above 187.00. Earlier the GBP/JPY pair rose to 187.78, reaching the highest price since December 12 but then pulled back.
Recently the pair bottomed at 187.11 and bounced toward 187.50, but failed so far to break above and it was trading slightly above the price it had at the beginning of the day.
During the last hours USD/JPY managed to climbed from 120.20 to 120.50 but the GBP/JPY failed to rise as the pound weakened across the board.
Dec 29, 2014
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USD Index short-term breakout confirmed 鈥 Sunshine Profits
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Mike McAra of Sunshine Profits, notes that the USD Index closed the week above 90 and also above the rising short-term resistance line, this confirms the short-term breakout.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he USD Index closed the week above 90 and also above the rising short-term resistance line, so the short-term breakout is confirmed. The implications for the next several days are bullish.鈥
鈥淭he USD Index has just encountered a major resistance line that it needs to surpass before a rally to 92 becomes very probable 鈥 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels based on the entire 2002 鈥 2008 decline.鈥
鈥淭he Fibonacci retracements have worked for the USD Index many times in the past, so it could be the case that this level will keep the rally in check for some time. If not, and we see a confirmed breakout, then we鈥檒l likely see another big rally 鈥 to the 92 level or perhaps even to the next retracement at 96.11.鈥
鈥淗owever, we would first need to see the breakout and its confirmation. For now, we have just seen a move to this critical level.鈥
鈥淲hile the situation in the precious metals market remains bearish, without a breakout in the USD Index, the possibility of another slide in the USD and a rally in gold, silver and mining stocks will be too big for us to think that opening short positions in the precious metals sector is justified from the risk to reward perspective.鈥
鈥淭he USD Index closed the week above the critical resistance level (the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), but it closed only a little above it and for just one day, so the breakout is not confirmed at this time.鈥
鈥淐onsequently, we don鈥檛 think that the move to 92 or higher is very probable for the USD Index at present. The implications for the precious metals market remain rather unclear at this time.鈥
Dec 29, 2014
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USD/JPY downside limited - FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet notes that technicals indicate that the USD/JPY pair is trading well above the moving averages with indicators hovering in neutral territory, suggesting that the downside for the pair is limited.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he USD/JPY pair has been trading in a tight 40 pips range since the day started, hovering around current level for most of the European session. Despite Nikkei slide on a suspected case of Ebola in Japan, the pair remains lifeless.鈥
鈥淭echnically the 1 hour chart shows momentum indicator flat around 100, albeit 100 SMA continues to provide intraday support, now around 120.25.鈥
鈥淚n the 4 hours chart indicators present a mild negative tone in neutral territory, whilst the price develops well above moving averages, all of which suggests the downside will remain limited.鈥
Dec 29, 2014
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USD/JPY downside limited - FXStreet




FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet notes that technicals indicate that the USD/JPY pair is trading well above the moving averages with indicators hovering in neutral territory, suggesting that the downside for the pair is limited.


Key Quotes


鈥淭he USD/JPY pair has been trading in a tight 40 pips range since the day started, hovering around current level for most of the European session. Despite Nikkei slide on a suspected case of Ebola in Japan, the pair remains lifeless.鈥


鈥淭echnically the 1 hour chart shows momentum indicator flat around 100, albeit 100 SMA continues to provide intraday support, now around 120.25.鈥


鈥淚n the 4 hours chart indicators present a mild negative tone in neutral territory, whilst the price develops well above moving averages, all of which suggests the downside will remain limited.鈥












Dec 29, 2014

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EUR/USD bearish tone prevails 鈥 FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, explains that the bearish tone for the EUR/USD pair prevails, which could take the pair towards the 1.2080 price zone if it breaks below its daily low at 1.2123.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he EUR/USD pair extended its decline down to 1.2123, fresh 2-year low, before profit taking took over the market. The dollar is down across the board albeit limited, in thin winter-holiday markets. Having reached a daily high of 1.2186, the EUR/USD pair trades around former year low at 1.2160, far from suggesting a bottom has been reached.鈥
鈥淭echnically, the 4 hours chart for the EUR/USD shows that price was unable to overcome its 20 SMA that continues to offer dynamic resistance around 1.2185, whilst momentum holds below 100 and RSI turns south around 37 after correcting oversold readings.鈥
鈥淥verall, the bearish tone prevails, with a break below the daily low probably seeing the pair extending its decline down to 1.2080 price zone.鈥
鈥淧rofit taking and risk aversion on the other hand, may see the pair accelerating north, with a break above the daily high favoring an upward extension up to 1.2220 price zone.鈥
Dec 30, 2014
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EUR/USD: Little activity as markets eye US consumer confidence 鈥 MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at Market Pulse, notes that the EUR/USD pair continues to trade quietly in the mid-1.21 range, as markets await the US consumer confidence report to be released today.
Key Quotes
鈥淓UR/USD continues to trade quietly in the final year of 2014. In Tuesday鈥檚 European session, the pair is trading in the mid-1.21 range. The euro is struggling, having lost about 350 points in the past two weeks. On the release front, Spanish CPI posted a sharp decline of 1.1%, while Eurozone Private Loans came in at -0.9%, matching the forecast. In the US, today鈥檚 highlight is CB Consumer Confidence. The markets are expecting a strong reading for December, with the estimate standing at 94.6 points.鈥
鈥淓UR/USD edged lower in the Asian session, testing support at 1.2143. The pair has reversed directions in the European session and posted gains.鈥
鈥1.2143 is a weak support level. 1.2042 is next. 1.2286 remains a strong resistance line.鈥
Dec 30, 2014
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USD/JPY consolidates below 120.00
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - USD/JPY dropped sharply from 120.60 and bottomed at 119.16, hitting the lowest price since December 19. Afterwards bounced to the upside, but the recovery was capped by 119.80.
Currently the pair is hovering around 119.50, more than a hundred pips below the price it closed on Monday, having so far the worst day in almost two weeks.
The Japanese currency is the best performer across the board on Tuesday, probably boosted by risk aversion and a bearish correction in the USD/JPY after rallying more than 400 pips since December 17.
Dec 30, 2014
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USD closes 2014 just shy of its cycle-high 鈥 TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osborne and Martin Schwerdtfeger, FX Strategists at TD Securities, share that USD struggled in the morning NA session, and closed lower on the day after seeing a fresh cycle high earlier in the day.
Key Quotes
鈥淓quities firmly in the red across the board, lower 鈥 albeit just moderately 鈥 US Treasury yields, a stronger JPY, and higher gold prices checked most, if not all the boxes of a risk-off day yesterday.鈥
鈥淭he USD struggled during the morning NA session and was unable to recover, closing lower overall on the day. However, to put things on perspective, these losses came on the heels of a fresh cycle high for the greenback earlier in the day, and, despite the USD鈥檚 further modest decline since yesterday, the big dollar will most likely end 2014 just a few points shy of yesterday鈥檚 multi-year high.鈥
鈥淚ndeed, it seems the FX market is in full holiday mode already. Otherwise, ECB鈥檚 Executive Board member Praet comments about the impact of a further decline in crude oil prices since the cut-off date for the December economic projections implying a high risk of negative headline CPI for a good portion of 2015, which in his opinion calls for urgent action, should had seen EURUSD at least a few points lower than where the pair sits now 鈥 only two points below yesterday鈥檚 close.鈥
Dec 31, 2014
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USD/CAD bounces off 2-week lows
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - USD/CAD managed to hold support at the 1.1570 area and bounced toward the 1.1600 mark at the beginning of the American session as oil extends its decline weighing on the loonie.
Meanwhile, disappointing US jobless claims data had little impact on the pair. Claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose by 17K to 298K last week, recording the highest level in nearly 2 months and above the 280K expected. USD/CAD is currently trading at the 1.1600 zone, still a few pips below its opening price.
"Overall, the CAD is poised to end 2014 with a loss in excess of 8% against the USD, except for 2009, its largest annual decline since 1992", says the TD Securities team. "We believe more CAD weakness lies ahead, and our 1.19 forecast for end Q3 could come to fruition earlier in the new year, especially if crude oil prices keep sliding. Bottom line, take advantage of dips to extend USD/CAD longs".
Dec 31, 2014
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EUR/USD approaches 2014 lows
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - After hovering around 1.2150 during a few hours EUR/USD broke to the downside and printed a fresh daily low at 1.2130, approaching yesterday鈥檚 low that lie at 1.2122.
Economic data from the US showed an increase of initial jobless claims from 281.000 to 298.000, above expectations of 290.000. Despite the worst-than-expected data EUR/USD continued to move to the downside, making no rebound.
The pair remains under pressure, trading slightly above daily lows, as the US dollar gained momentum across the board, with crude oil trading at fresh multi-year lows on the last trading day of 2014.
Dec 31, 2014
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AUD/USD erased gains and fell below 0.8170
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - AUD/USD weakened and reversed the daily trend falling 40 pips during the last three hours. The pair failed to hold above 0.8200 and dropped to 0.8168, reaching a fresh daily low.
The aussie failed to hold to gains after trading at 2-week highs while the US dollar gained momentum across the board, hitting fresh highs after Wall Street opening bell.
AUD/USD technical levels
To the downside, support levels might lie at 0.8155 and below at 0.8120 (Dec 30 low) while to the upside resistance could be located at 0.8190, 0.8215 (daily high) and 0.8255.
Jan 01,2015
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USD/CHF at highs since July 2012
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The USD/CHF is enjoying its negative correlation with the EUR/USD and after a 35-pip rise from 0.9890, the pair jumped to trade at highs since July 2012 at 0.9925.
Regarding the EUR/USD, it pushed lower and hit a fresh 29-month to bid farewell to the year 2014 as euro weakened following London's close.
Currently, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9910, up 0.20% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.9928 and low at 0.9879. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing overbought conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.
USD/CHF levels
If the pair consolidates gains above 0.9900, next resistances are at 0.925 and 1.0000. To the downside, supports are at 0.9900, 0.9890 and 0.9880.
Jan 01,2015
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Crude oil hits fresh multi-year lows
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - Oil prices extended its decline during the last trading day of the year amid oversupply concerns.
Crude oil fell more than 2% and hit a fresh 5-year low of $52.68 a barrel before recovering somewhat. Oil is trading at $53.35/bbl, still on track to post a 43% loss in 2014, its biggest annual decline since 2008, as the OPEC refrained from cutting output to keep the price high.
The latest US government report on oil inventories showed stockpiles decreased by 1.8 million barrels during the last week. On the other hand, the American Petroleum Institute reported Tuesday US crude inventories rose by 760,000 barrels last week versus expectations of a 100,000 barrels decline.
Jan 01,2015
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Euro rapidly approaching June 2010 low of $1.1877 鈥 BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman shares the FX performance for majors, and suggests that the EUR/USD pair is rapidly approaching the June 2010 low of 1.1877 after it made a fresh low at 1.2035 levels.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he euro broke below the mid-2012 low to trade at $1.2035, rapidly approaching the June 2010 low of 1.1877. Euro-area final PMI manufacturing for December came in slightly lower at 50.6, but more significantly, Draghi made some more dovish comments during an interview to a German newspaper yesterday. He reinforced the ECB鈥檚 reediness to act and his concerns about deflation.鈥
鈥淭he New Zealand dollar is the weakest major currency on the day, falling to $0.7750 against the dollar, but still well within recent ranges.鈥
鈥淭he pound is also underperforming, falling to a 16-month low of 1.5470 after a weaker UK PMI figure for December, at 52.5 compared with 53.6 expected.鈥
鈥淭he dollar is back above the 楼120.0 level against the yen, in part supported by comments by BoJ governor Kuroda saying that the bank still has tools to meet the CPI target.鈥
鈥淭he Indonesian rupiah fell over 1% following a shockingly weak set of trade prints for December. Exports fell -14.5% y/y (exp. -4.5%) and imports were -7.3% (exp. +0.1%), leading to a -$426 mln trade deficit. The ruble is back on the defensive again, falling 1.0% against the basket.鈥
Jan 02,2015
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Euro rapidly approaching June 2010 low of $1.1877 鈥 BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team notes that Draghi strengthened QE bets by commenting that the ECB was in preparations to adjust the QE measures to keep the inflation near its target, leading the EUR to make a fresh low at 1.2035.
Key Quotes
鈥淓uropean Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling its mandate of preserving price stability was higher now than half a year ago, and reiterated its readiness to act early this year should it become necessary.鈥
鈥淓uro zone inflation stands at 0.3%, far below the ECB's target of just under 2%. Draghi said: 鈥淲e are in technical preparations to adjust the size, speed and compositions of our measures early 2015, should it become necessary to react to a too long period of low inflation. There is unanimity within the Governing Council on this.鈥 He added that government bond purchases were among the tools the ECB could use to fulfill its mandate.鈥
鈥淭he EUR/USD fell to 1.2035 after Draghi strengthened expectations for quantitative easing in the Euro zone. That was the lowest level since June 2010.鈥
鈥淲e were looking for a correction in the EUR/USD. However, breaking below the level of 1.2100 fueled bearish sentiment.鈥
鈥淥ur strategy now is to sell EUR/USD at 1.2180. If our order is filled the target will be 1.1950 (just below daily low on June 6, 2010).鈥
Jan 02,2015
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Euro rapidly approaching June 2010 low of $1.1877 鈥 BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Research Team notes that Draghi strengthened QE bets by commenting that the ECB was in preparations to adjust the QE measures to keep the inflation near its target, leading the EUR to make a fresh low at 1.2035.
Key Quotes
鈥淓uropean Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the risk of the central bank not fulfilling its mandate of preserving price stability was higher now than half a year ago, and reiterated its readiness to act early this year should it become necessary.鈥
鈥淓uro zone inflation stands at 0.3%, far below the ECB's target of just under 2%. Draghi said: 鈥淲e are in technical preparations to adjust the size, speed and compositions of our measures early 2015, should it become necessary to react to a too long period of low inflation. There is unanimity within the Governing Council on this.鈥 He added that government bond purchases were among the tools the ECB could use to fulfill its mandate.鈥
鈥淭he EUR/USD fell to 1.2035 after Draghi strengthened expectations for quantitative easing in the Euro zone. That was the lowest level since June 2010.鈥
鈥淲e were looking for a correction in the EUR/USD. However, breaking below the level of 1.2100 fueled bearish sentiment.鈥
鈥淥ur strategy now is to sell EUR/USD at 1.2180. If our order is filled the target will be 1.1950 (just below daily low on June 6, 2010).鈥
Jan 02,2015
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Fed hike could spell trouble for US stocks 鈥 Comstoc
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Comstock Partners Team note that a Fed rate hike in 2015 could spell trouble for the already overvalued US stocks, as it was previously seen after the ending of QE1 and QE2.
Key quotes
鈥淚n December, the U.S. stock market staged a furious comeback rally following a rapid and substantial decline. Just prior to the latest upturn, the market seemed ready and poised for further and even more substantial declines.鈥
鈥淭he rally appears to have been precipitated by the Fed substituting the word 鈥減atience鈥 for 鈥渃onsiderable time鈥 in their latest policy statement. While we were disappointed that the markets rallied based on the simple parsing of words, we remain convinced that deflation, overvaluation, and Fed policy in response have intertwined to cause one of the largest stock market bubbles in history.鈥
鈥淚mportantly, the velocity (turnover of money) of the M2 money supply has remained near the lows of the past 60 years. That statistic serves as proof that the Fed鈥檚 efforts are getting very little 鈥渂ang for the buck鈥.
鈥淎s you all know energy prices have been collapsing, as supply is overwhelming demand--many think that energy prices are holding back the U.S. bull market by hurting other countries abroad. Soon they will realize that the commodity price decline is caused by the global distress--not the other way around.鈥
鈥淭he Fed is about to raise interest rates sometime in 2015 (for the first time in 6 years), and that could be trouble for stocks just as it was after the ending QE-1, and QE 2. On the other hand, if they don鈥檛 raise rates it would only be based on failed QE policies that were supposed to revive the economy. This is the incredible dilemma that the Fed faces in the coming year.鈥
Jan 02,2015
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Can US raise rates in 2015 amidst global concerns? 鈥 RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at RBS notes that today鈥檚 ISM release will help determine the answer to whether US will raise rates amidst global concerns.
Key Quotes
鈥淔or the US, the critical question of "can the US go it alone amidst these global concerns, and raise rates in 2015, even modestly?" remains. Today's ISM release will help determine if the base case answer in the markets continues to be "yes," and if the ongoing equity market rise continues to send the message that even if the Fed does so, riskier assets should be just fine.鈥
鈥淪ome of this I believe is the current impression that even as rates rise, it will happen in a "not too hot not too cold" fashion 鈥 rate rises won't be too hot or fast given the global outlook and local inflation backdrop, while the cold coming from overseas is to be met with asset boosting stimulus abroad, helping all global assets.鈥
鈥淭his may end up being the case, but I have doubts that even if it is, we will get there without any volatility, minor market "accidents," or periods of concern that one side of the other will indeed be "too hot" or "too cold.鈥
Jan 02,2015
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US ISM disappoints, but job creation remains strong 鈥 ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, explains that today鈥檚 US ISM Manufacturing release disappointed by coming out below than expectations at 55.5, but better employment numbers point towards a decent Labour Report in the coming week, anticipating wages to move higher and unemployment to fall further.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he ISM manufacturing index for December has come in at 55.5, down from 58.7 in November. This is disappointing given the consensus was 57.5 and follows the trend seen elsewhere around the world today. Nonetheless, it still suggests that the US economy is growing strongly, roughly at trend of around 3%, which is well above the rate seen in other mature developed economies.鈥
鈥淭he details show that production fell to 58.8 from 64.4 while new orders declined from 66.0 to 57.3 with net exports dropping to 52 from 55.5. There was better news on employment though, which rose to 56.8 from 54.9. This offers some hope that next week鈥檚 Labour Report should be decent. The current consensus is 240,000 versus the 321,000 outcome in November.鈥
鈥淲e also expect to see wages creep higher next week and the unemployment to fall further so the data remains consistent with very gradual Federal Reserve policy tightening later this year and ongoing dollar strength.鈥
Jan 02,2015
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EUR/JPY drops to 7-week lows
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - EUR/JPY broke below 144.70 after the release of a weak ISM report in the US that boosted the yen across the board. The pair dropped from 145.00 to 144.33 in a few minutes, hitting the lowest price since mid November.
EUR/JPY levels
The decline found support above the 144.30 area and it was trading at 144.50, down 0.32% for the day. Below support levels might lie at 144.00, 143.65 (Nov 5 high) and 142.95.
To the upside, resistance could be located at 144.70 (Dec 30, 31 low), 145.30 and 145.55 (Dec 31 high).
Jan 02,2015
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EUR/USD: Not much in the way until 1.1900 鈥 FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares that with the technical indicators heading south and the daily charts presenting a strong bearish momentum, there is not much in the way for EUR/USD pair until 1.1900 levels if it breaks below 1.2000.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he EUR/USD pair debut in this 2015 sees it dangerously close to the 1.2000 level for the first time since June 2010鈥
鈥淒ata was far from encouraging both shores of the Atlantic, but the dollar rules anyway: as a new month starts, market attention shifts to Central Banks possible movements, with the ECB expected to introduce some further stimulus as deflation and lack of growth become more evident month after month.鈥
鈥淭he US by opposition, will release next week its employment figures, and there are no signs the strong growth seen on previous months will suffer a setback.鈥
鈥淭echnically, the weekly chart of the EUR/USD pair shows that price continues to slide below its moving averages, whilst indicators head south below their midlines, with RSI around 25 after a failure attempt of correcting higher, and with no bottom yet confirmed in the indicator.鈥
鈥淚n the daily chart indicators present a strong bearish momentum also supportive of a continued decline.鈥
鈥淭he immediate supports stands at the 1.2000 psychological figure, and if broken, there is little in the way down to the 1.1900 level. There鈥檚 a possibility this last gives up next week, and it that case the next big long term support stands in the 1.1650 area.鈥
鈥淟ast December week low around 1.2160 is the immediate resistance level, followed by 1.2250 price zone. Upward movements up to this last are possible but not likely, and market players will see those advances more as selling opportunities than as signs of a bottom.鈥
Jan 02,2015
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Gold rises again; still gains capped at USD 1200.00



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices recovered losses to trade over and above the 50-DMA located at USD 1191, although the metal is still unable to rise above the USD 1200 mark.


The metal currently trades 0.94% higher at USD 1197.30/Oz levels, after having tested the USD 1200 mark. The metal regained strength due to the weakness in the US treasury yields and the US stock markets. The DJIA has weakened 0.86% to trade at 17,680.50 levels, while the S&P futures are down 0.74% at 2031.15 levels. Meanwhile, the 10-yr treasury yield slipped 3.9 basis points to 2.074%. Consequently, the USD index has cooled down to 91.72 levels from the high of 92.05 hit earlier today.


Gold Technical Levels


Gold has an immediate resistance located at 1200, above which gains could be extended to 1203.23 (100-DMA) levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1191.40 (50-DMA) and 1183.40 levels.









Jan 06,2015

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AUD/JPY fails to hold above 97.00
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - AUD/JPY erased gains and is moving toward yesterday鈥檚 low that lie at 96.37; if it fall under it would be trading at the lowest since December 18.
During the Asian session the pair climbed to 97.20 but failed to hold and pulled back. On European hours rebounded and the 97.00 offered resistance.
Currently trades at 96.48, down 0.30% for the day weakened by the rise of the yen across the board. The Japanese currency is among the strongest for the second day in a row supported by risk aversion and falling US government bond yields.
Jan 07,2015
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AUD/USD holds above 0.8100
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - AUD/USD failed to extend its recovery above 0.8160 and came under mild pressure, surrendering a portion of its intraday gains at the beginning of the New York session.
The Australian dollar has been on recovery mode over the last sessions after hitting a fresh 4 陆-year low Monday, underpinned by rising gold prices. However, AUD/USD lost momentum after reaching a daily high of 0.8157 and pulled back, but the 0.8100 level contained the downside.
At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.8115, still up 0.41% on the day, with the US Markit services PMI reading having virtually no effect on the greenback. Still on tap, the more important ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be published at 15:00 GMT.
AUD/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate supports are seen at 0.8080 (daily low) and 0.8035 (4 陆-year low Jan 5). On the upside, resistances line up at 0.8157 (daily high) and 0.8200 (psychological level).
Jan 07,2015
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Treasuries overbought, but bulls still in control 鈥 RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - William O鈥橠onnell, Head of US Treasury Strategy at RBS, notes that US treasuries are still overbought but there are not signs yet that the bulls/buyers have lost control of the price action.
Key Quotes
鈥淚 still have high confidence that market technicals (long-term momentum work, positioning and sentiment data, etc) will eventually sniff out the beginnings of new bear trends in rates markets, even if the economic data has done a lousy job at it in the past year.鈥
鈥淟ong term momentum work in Treasury 10's and 30's is into 'overbought' territory but there are no signs yet that the bulls/buyers have lost control of the price action. We've seen ~104 straight days where national gas prices have fallen; a good lesson that trends can persist longer than trend-fighters can remain solvent.鈥
鈥淎nyway, it's clear that the brushfires that have pushed safe haven rates lower around the globe still have dry tinder to burn.鈥
鈥淚ndeed, the just updated CFTC data showed that Specs and Levered $ are near an all-time record short in TU out to WN futures. Specs had a record net short in TY futures of $26bn in TY futures equivalents in the latest numbers.鈥
鈥淭his is why I've said in recent weeks that it's too early to sell or go short, even if it may be too late to buy the overbought back-end of the US rates curve.鈥
鈥10s (1.99%)鈥揘ext major resistance comes in at the flash crash lows ~1.86%. There is some minor resistance at ~2.10% before that. Next support comes in ~2.40% with major support at 2.66% after that. Daily momentum is solidly bullish.鈥
鈥30s (2.56%)鈥 Bonds don't have any solid support until 3.105%, the November "lows." Next resistance is a huge level at ~2.50%, the all-time rate lows for bonds. Daily momentum is bullish but edging into overbought readings.鈥
Jan 07,2015
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USD/JPY follows Treasury yields ahead of Fed minutes
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The USD/JPY pair is slowly rising towards the 5-DMA located at 119.68 levels, tracking the hardening of the 10-year Treasury yields in the US as markets brace up for the December Federal Reserve minutes.
The pair extended gains post the release of an upbeat December month ADP report to clock a high of 119.55 levels. Moreover, the Treasury yield curve has steepened, indicating relatively resilient yields at the long-end 鈥 10yr and 30yr 鈥 of the treasury market curve. The USD/JPY is known to have a direct correlation to the yields at the long-end. Thus, the pair is slowly inching higher tracking the 10-yr treasury yield, which currently trades 3.2 basis points at 1.995%.
USD/JPY Technical Levels
The pair has an immediate resistance located at 119.65 (5-DMA) and 119.83 (10-DMA). Meanwhile, support is seen at 119.24, under which the pair could re-test 118.79 (50-DMA) levels.
Jan 07,2015
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NZD/USD drops to 0.7720
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - NZD/USD dropped below 0.7730 after the release of the ADP report in the US and bottomed at 0.7721, hitting a fresh daily low.
The pair is moving off session lows, currently trading at 0.7737, down 0.47% for the day so far. The kiwi erased most of yesterday's gains when it rose supported by higher diary prices.
Today the US dollar gained momentum across the board after ADP reported that the US private sector created 241.000 jobs in December; above expectations. Commodity currencies are falling modestly versus greenback buy climbing against its European counterparts, as crude oil prices recover ground.
Jan 07,2015
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Gold under pressure ahead of Fed minutes
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices decline ahead of the December Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes release, tracking the strength in the Treasury yields in the US.
The yellow metal trades 0.61% lower at USD 1212/Oz levels, compared to the previous session鈥檚 close at USD 1219.40/Oz levels. The metal is taking cues from the strength in the US treasury yields. The 10-year yield is up 2.4 basis points at 1.987%, while the 30-yr yield is up 3.1 basis points at 2.554%. Interestingly, the 2-yr yield, a barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, is trading largely unchanged at 0.633% amid widespread belief the minutes would hint at policy tightening in 2015. Gold may extend decline if the 2-year yield starts rising as we move closer to Fed minutes release.
Gold Technical Levels
Gold has an immediate support located at 1209.76 (50-DMA), under which prices may fall to 1205.50 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 1214.18 (10-DMA) and 1218.4 levels.
Jan 07,2015
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FOMC minutes outlook: Dependent on data 鈥 CA



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Credit Agricole take a view on the FOMC minutes.


Key Quotes:


"In the December FOMC meeting minutes, the discussion behind the forward guidance changes will provide a better gauge of the balance of views on the dove-hawk scale with regard to economic conditions and the rate lift-off. We will look for additional clues on the dove-hawk balance in the December FOMC minutes鈥.


鈥淲hile the December FOMC statement offered a hawkish tone in introducing 鈥減atience鈥 in policy normalization the Fed dampened such sentiment by stressing that its guidance remains consistent with the previous statements鈥 鈥渃onsiderable time鈥 characterisation".


"We find that the altered guidance does not signal a change in the policy outlook, which remains dependent on the data. Yet, somewhat unsurprisingly, it prompted two hawks to dissent鈥.


"Further insight on the Fed鈥檚 views on the labour market improvement and disinflationary pressures will be useful in understanding the introduction of 鈥減atience鈥. Downward movement in the median fed funds rate projections added a dovish angle and implies a slower pace in rate hikes, so any more information on postlift-off normalisation will be helpful as well. Discussion about the impact of declining energy prices on domestic inflation and financial stability will be of particular interest, given recent oil price movements and financial market volatility鈥.


"As Chair Yellen noted in her press conference that the normalisation process is unlikely to begin for 鈥渁t least the next couple of meetings,鈥 any additional comments on the timing may be offered in the minutes. Finally, the minutes likely offered more discussion on segregated accounts, other interest rate tools and the Fed鈥檚 balance sheet normalization process".







Jan 07,2015

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Canada Building Permits (MoM) below expectations (1%) in November: Actual (-13.8%)
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Jan 09,2015
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Non-farm Payrolls increase by 252k, December revised upwards, unemployment rate declines to 5.6 percent
FXStreet (London) - Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 252K in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The BLS reported that job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
The unemployment rate declined further than expected - down 0.2 percentage point to 5.6 percent in December, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 383,000 to 8.7 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 1.1 percentage points and 1.7 million, respectively.
In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 5 cents to USD24.57, following an increase of 6 cents in November. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.7 percent. In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees decreased by 6 cents to USD20.68.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from +243K to +261K, and the change for November was revised from +321K to +353K. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November were 50K higher than previously reported.
Jan 09,2015
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Non-farm Payrolls increase by 252k, December revised upwards, unemployment rate declines to 5.6 percent
FXStreet (London) - Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 252K in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
The BLS reported that job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
The unemployment rate declined further than expected - down 0.2 percentage point to 5.6 percent in December, and the number of unemployed persons declined by 383,000 to 8.7 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by 1.1 percentage points and 1.7 million, respectively.
In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 5 cents to USD24.57, following an increase of 6 cents in November. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.7 percent. In December, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees decreased by 6 cents to USD20.68.
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised from +243K to +261K, and the change for November was revised from +321K to +353K. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November were 50K higher than previously reported.
Jan 09,2015
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GBP/JPY to test 180.90 before further sell-off resumes 鈥 FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FXStreet Editor and Analyst, Omkar Godbole, shares that soft Yen and recovering UK Gilt Yields might support gains in GBP/JPY, anticipating the pair to test 180.90 before further sell-off resumes.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he GBP/JPY pair fell to a 2-month low today after the data in the UK showed CPI in December at 0.5% year-on-year, which is well below the estimate of 0.7% and down from the November鈥檚 print of 1.0%.鈥
鈥淭he cable weakened to a three-day low of 1.5076 following the weak data, although losses have been recovered since the Gilt yields in the UK recovered post the release of the data鈥
鈥淭he recovery in the UK Gilt yields, along with relative weakness in the Yen on recovery in Treasury yields is likely to support gains in the GBP/JPY pair.鈥
鈥淭echnically, the GBT/JPY pair is oversold on daily charts as indicated by the RSI. Plus a technical buying is likely to set-in since the pair has recovered after dipping below the support at 178.70.鈥
鈥淲e can also see a positive price-RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart.鈥
鈥淭hus, the pair is likely to test 180.90 (100-DMA) levels before resuming further sell-off.鈥
Jan 13,2015
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UK CPI falls, Swedish CPI boosts the krona 鈥 BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The BBH Team note that two inflation reports and two trade reports dominate today's macro-economic developments, with UK CPI falling below consensus (0.7%) to 0.5%YoY, and Swedish CPI remaining firm at 0.2% MoM, boosting the Swedish krona.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he UK reported a 0.5% year-over-year increase in CPI. This was below the 0.7% consensus and is half the pace seen in November.鈥
鈥淏OE Governor Carney has to write a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne to explain the undershoot. Energy and food prices are the key drivers.鈥
鈥淲e note that the core rate actually ticked up from 1.2% to 1.3%. The December short-sterling futures firmed to test the contract high set last April at 99.32 (implied yield 68 bp) as the market all but gives up on the idea of a rate hike this year.鈥
鈥淪weden also reported December CPI figures. It was surprisingly firm at 0.2% on the month. The market had expected a 0.1% decline. The year-over-year rate did slip into more negative territory (-0.3% from -0.2%) but was not as low as had been feared/expected (-0.5%). The underlying rate did tick up to 0.2% from 0.0%, but caution is advised here. The underlying rate is calculating using a fixed mortgage interest rate rather than excluding food and energy.鈥
鈥淭he Swedish krona rallied on the news and is the strongest of the major currencies today, gaining 1% against the US dollar.鈥
鈥淭he Riksbank meets on February 12, and an adoption of aggressive action seems somewhat less likely now. It may still adjust its forward guidance, pushing out the timing of the first rate hike and perhaps lengthening some repo operations, but negative rates or bond purchases seems unlikely.鈥
Jan 13,2015
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Slump in Copper not enough to trigger deep production cuts
FXStreet (Mumbai) - With the London Copper trading below USD 6000 for the first time since October 2009, a tenth of world鈥檚 top miners are likely to suffer losses despite which the production cuts may not be significant.
The metal鈥檚 16% slide since July is the biggest since 2003. As per Robert Edwards, managing consultant for mining costs at consultancy CRU, 鈥渢he pain would be more acute and unsustainable at USD 5,000 per tonne. At that point 鈥渢angible cutbacks鈥 can be expected.鈥
However, some incremental projects have been affected reports Reuters. Antofagasta will shutter its small Michilla operation in Chile this year because it has become uneconomic.
Moreover, a prolonged low price may force to scale back their production. As per Bruce Allway, analyst at GFMS, owned by Thomson Reuters, 鈥淚f, as we expect, copper prices remain under pressure in coming months, other producers at the upper end of the cost curve may opt to follow suit. 鈥
Jan 13,2015
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United States JOLTS Job Openings above expectations (4.863M) in November: Actual (4.97M)
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Jan 13,2015
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Gold erases gains
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The strength in the US equity markets coupled with recovery in the US Treasury prices has pushed Gold prices to the previous session鈥檚 close at USD 1232.80/Oz levels.
The yellow metal declined from a high of USD 1244.30 hit earlier today to trade just 0.10% up for the day at USD 1234/Oz levels. The haven demand for the yellow metal declined as equity markets in the US posted solid gains. The DJIA currently trades 1.42% higher at 17,891.50, while the S&P futures trade 1.285 higher at 2048.45 levels. Meanwhile, the US 10-yr Treasury yields have recovered losses to trade 2.1 basis points higher at 1.933%. The strength in the Treasury yields has pushed the USD index up by 0.32%.
The yellow metal may fall into the red, if the equity markets extend rally, thereby pulling up the Treasury yields.
Gold Technical Levels
The metal has an immediate resistance located at 1238.3, above which gains could be extended to 1244.87 (200-DMA) levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1230.00 and 1224.42 (5-DMA) levels.
Jan 13,2015
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Yen surges on weak US retail sales - MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at MarketPulse, notes that USD/JPY responded sharply to the weak US retail numbers, as the pair has fallen about 120 points so far.
Key Quotes
鈥淯SD/JPY has sustained sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, the pair is trading in the mid-116 range. The yen has taken advantage of awful US retail numbers. Core Retail Sales fell by 1.0%, while Retail Sales dropped 0.9%.鈥
鈥淚n Japan, today鈥檚 highlight is Core Machinery Orders, with the markets expecting a strong gain of 4.8.鈥
鈥淯SD/JPY has posted losses in the Asian and European sessions, braking below two support levels.鈥
鈥116.69 is a weak resistance line. 117.94 is stronger. 115.56 is a strong support level.鈥
鈥淐urrent range: 115.56 to 116.69鈥
Jan 14,2015
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US engine spluttering? - ING
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Rob Carnell, analyst at ING Bank noted commented further on the recent retails sales disappointments from the US.
Key Quotes:
"While these retail sales figures are a little worrying, and follow a substantial shift back in the market鈥檚 implied tightening by the Fed this year from late last year, we are reserving judgment on what this means. It is not unusual for US data to wobble like this."
"However, if we do not see a strong recovery in the January figures, it will be time to review whether the US economy is as strong as the 3Q14 figures suggested, and whether extrapolating that strength into 2015 is such a good idea."
"More worryingly, with the US about the only beacon of growth globally, if even this engine is spluttering, then a more substantial market correction than we have already seen may well be on the cards."
Jan 14,2015
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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change came in at 5.389M, above forecasts (0.417M) in January 9
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Jan 14,2015
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GBP/USD gathering pace - FXStreet
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted how the GBP/USD has gathered momentum.
Key Quotes:
"There was no news in the UK to affect the pair, driven at the time being by self dollar weakness".
"The technical picture in the short term supports further advances particularly if price breaks 1.5275 resistance, as indicators head strongly higher above their midlines moving away from a mild bullish 20 SMA".
"In the 4 hours chart the upward potential seems even stronger, supporting the shorter term view"..
Jan 14,2015
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EUR/USD recovery falters at 1.1845
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - EUR/USD recovery from fresh 9-year lows was capped by the 1.1845 zone during the American session, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation over the last hours.
EUR/USD fell below 1.1747 level at which the euro first traded on Jan 4, 1999 and hit a fresh 9-year low of 1.1726 before finding support. Disappointing US retail sales hurt the dollar and helped EUR/USD to regain the 1.18 mark but momentum was lacking. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1805, 0.29% above its opening price.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.1845 (Jan 14 high) and the 1.1870/80 zone (Jan 12 high/10-day SMA) ahead of 1.1900 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.1726 (9-year low Jan 14) and 1.1700 (psychological level).
Jan 14,2015
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EUR/JPY back off the lows of the 137 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is currently trading at 137.82 with a high of 138.94 and a low of 137.01 and down 0.63% on the day.
EUR/JPY has been falling on a number of counts and makes new territory on the lower end of the 137 handle with 137.20 coming in as a fragile support. The ECB is around the corner and officials are sounding more and more dovish in respect of timings action required in the economy for looser policy while the Yen is carrying the risk off benefits and has recently surged higher vs the greenback on disappointments from the US calendar as well. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained the Elliott wave count on the intraday chart is suggesting we allow for a retracement into the 141.45/142.56 band prior to another leg lower.
Jan 14,2015
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USD/JPY remains below 117.00 after US data
FXStreet (C贸rdoba) - USD/JPY edged a few pips higher but remained capped by the 117.00 level, following the latest string of mixed US data.
US initial jobless claims rose by 19,000 to a 4-month high of 316,000 in the week ending Jan 9, above the 295,000 expected and marking its first reading above 300,000 since Thanksgiving. On the other hand, producer price index rose by 1.0% in December beating the 1.0% expected and NY Empire State manufacturing index climbed to 9.95 vs 5.00 of consensus, outweighed the negative employment reading.
USD/JPY climbed to an hourly high of 116.93 but lacked momentum to regain the 117 mark. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 116.85, still 0.38% below its opening price.
Jan 15,2015
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EUR/USD fall in reaction to QE might be short-lived 鈥 Growth Aces
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Growth Aces Team expects the medium-term EUR/USD outlook to be bullish, and further add that the fall in the pair in anticipation of QE might be short lived.
Key Quotes
鈥淭he EUR/USD traders are waiting now for U.S. CPI data tomorrow. Lower-than-expected reading will probably strengthen the EUR/USD and this could be a good opportunity to get short ahead on the EUR/USD.鈥
鈥淥ur baseline scenario assumed that a fall of the EUR/USD in reaction to the QE programme will be short-lived and profit-taking could lift the rate soon. We expected the medium-term outlook for the EUR/USD is slightly bullish due to possible delaying rate hikes by the Fed. However, this scenario is under threat after today鈥檚 decision of the SNB. There is a risk that a strong crisis in Europe that may be the consequence of the SNB decision may make investors turn into safe-haven assets. This means that the EUR may depreciate further against the USD."
Jan 15,2015
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US equities to see early buying
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The stock markets in the US are likely to open higher on mixed bag of US data. The action in the major index futures indicates early buying is likely to be seen on Wall Street.
At the time of writing, the DJIA futures traded 0.26% higher at 17,409.50, while the S&P 500 futures traded 0.21% higher at 2011.00. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ futures and the Russell 2000 futures are trading 0.14% and 0.24% higher at 4151.10 and 1176.80 levels respectively. Consequently, the S&P 500 VIX futures are trading 0.49% lower at 20.53 levels.
On the data front, the labor department data showed producer prices fell by slightly less than expected in the month of December. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims climbed to 316,000 in the week ended January 10th, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised level of to 297,000. Elsewhere, New York Federal Reserve released a report showing a rebound in regional manufacturing activity in the month of January.
In overseas trading, the European markets witnessed a high volatility after the Swiss National Bank surprised markets by abandoning the EUR/CHF floor at 1.2, while it reduced interest rates to -0.75%. Earlier today, most stock markets across the Asia-Pacific moved back to the upside.
Jan 15,2015
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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