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EMEA EM Express: Ukraine begins "anti-terrorist" operation; central bank hikes rates to stop hryvnia decline
FXStreet (Łódź) - The Ukrainian-Russian crisis remains in the spotlight on Tuesday as Kiev decided to kick off the “anti-terrorist” operation against pro-Russian demonstrators occupying government buildings in the eastern Donetsk region. According to recent reports Ukraine forces have surrounded the city of Slovyansk and attacked a military airfield controlled by pro-Russian militants.
Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov told the parliament today that Moscow is not only targeting the Donetsk region but wants “the whole south and east of Ukraine to be engulfed by fire." He added that the aim of the operation in progress is to “defend the citizens of Ukraine, to stop terror, stop crime and stop attempts to tear our country into pieces."
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that there were no Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and that Kiev's allegations were “absurd.”
Meanwhile, the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller released a statement in which he assured the EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger that the transit of gas to Europe would continue without disruptions.
Fears of further sanctions and an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine sent Russia's Micex index down by nearly 2% on Monday. On Tuesday it fell by 1.3%. The index has already dropped by more than 10% since the beginning of the year.
In Ukraine, the central bank decided late Monday to hike its benchmark interest rate from to 9.5% from 6.5% to halt the sharp drop in the hryvnia seen since the beginning of the year. The overnight loan rate was also increased: to 14.5% from 7.5%. The currency reacted by jumping over 8% against the dollar on Tuesday, although the increase might be just short-term.
Economic data
Polish March CPI data, published on Tuesday showed a 0.1% increase month-on-month following +0.1% in February and slightly below forecasts of a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis inflation continued growing at a 0.7% pace, as expected
Also on Tuesday TurkStat revealed that Turkey's The 3mth Jobless Average edged up further to 10.1% in January from 10% in December, the highest level seen since March 2013.
Turkish budget surplus of TRY 1.67B recorded in January shifted to a deficit of TRY -5.10B in February.
Technicals
On Tuesday the Russian ruble was fairly unmoved against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros at 42.1805. USD/RUB rose by 0.45% at 36.1422.
On Monday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 56 at the last close and slid to 43 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3680 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 3639 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.5557, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.7026.
Ukraine's hryvnia surged 8.1% to 12.59 at midday.
Apr 15, 2014
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EMEA EM Express: Ukraine begins "anti-terrorist" operation; central bank hikes rates to stop hryvnia decline
FXStreet (Łódź) - The Ukrainian-Russian crisis remains in the spotlight on Tuesday as Kiev decided to kick off the “anti-terrorist” operation against pro-Russian demonstrators occupying government buildings in the eastern Donetsk region. According to recent reports Ukraine forces have surrounded the city of Slovyansk and attacked a military airfield controlled by pro-Russian militants.
Ukraine's acting president Oleksandr Turchynov told the parliament today that Moscow is not only targeting the Donetsk region but wants “the whole south and east of Ukraine to be engulfed by fire." He added that the aim of the operation in progress is to “defend the citizens of Ukraine, to stop terror, stop crime and stop attempts to tear our country into pieces."
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that there were no Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and that Kiev's allegations were “absurd.”
Meanwhile, the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller released a statement in which he assured the EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger that the transit of gas to Europe would continue without disruptions.
Fears of further sanctions and an escalation of the conflict with Ukraine sent Russia's Micex index down by nearly 2% on Monday. On Tuesday it fell by 1.3%. The index has already dropped by more than 10% since the beginning of the year.
In Ukraine, the central bank decided late Monday to hike its benchmark interest rate from to 9.5% from 6.5% to halt the sharp drop in the hryvnia seen since the beginning of the year. The overnight loan rate was also increased: to 14.5% from 7.5%. The currency reacted by jumping over 8% against the dollar on Tuesday, although the increase might be just short-term.
Economic data
Polish March CPI data, published on Tuesday showed a 0.1% increase month-on-month following +0.1% in February and slightly below forecasts of a 0.2% rise. On an annual basis inflation continued growing at a 0.7% pace, as expected
Also on Tuesday TurkStat revealed that Turkey's The 3mth Jobless Average edged up further to 10.1% in January from 10% in December, the highest level seen since March 2013.
Turkish budget surplus of TRY 1.67B recorded in January shifted to a deficit of TRY -5.10B in February.
Technicals
On Tuesday the Russian ruble was fairly unmoved against the central bank’s target basket of dollars and euros at 42.1805. USD/RUB rose by 0.45% at 36.1422.
On Monday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 56 at the last close and slid to 43 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3680 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 3639 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.5557, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.7026.
Ukraine's hryvnia surged 8.1% to 12.59 at midday.
Apr 15, 2014
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EUR/USD jumps to daily highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD gathered pace and managed to extend its recovery during the New York session, reaching fresh daily highs as the greenback weakens across the board.
The EUR/USD spiked to a high of 1.3832 as the dollar falls and stocks turn lower in Wall Street amid deteriorating market sentiment. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.3825 a few pips above its opening price.
EUR/USD technical levels
In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.3832 (Apr 15 high), 1.3862 (Apr 14 high) and 1.3882 (Friday's closing price). To the downside, supports are seen at 1.3794 (20-day SMA), 1.3768 (50-day SMA) and 1.3736 (Apr 8 low).
Apr 15, 2014
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Switzerland ZEW Survey - Expectations came in at 7 disappointing forecasts (23) in April
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Apr 16, 2014
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United States Capacity Utilization came in at 79.2% to beat forecasts (78.7%) in March
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Apr 16, 2014
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United States Industrial Production (MoM) came in at 0.7% to beat expectations (0.5%) in March
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Apr 16, 2014
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USD/JPY rallies on declining yen safety demand
FXStreet (London) - USD/JPY has rallied through the session so far after data released overnight indicated that the Chinese economy slowed less than consensus expectations in the first quarter. The slower than expected deceleration in Chinese growth damped demand for yen safety.
Official Chinese GDP data released overnight showed that growth had fallen to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter. The 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter growth represents the lowest level since the third quarter of 2010. Despite the weak numbers, Chinese growth held above consensus expectations of a slow down to 7.3 percent year-on-year.
Japanese stimulus chatter
In addition, against the recent yen strength as well as declining equity markets, speculation has mounted that the Bank of Japan is preparing to intervene with an expansion of its current stimulus measures to fight deflationary pressures. In testimony before the Japanese parliament, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda attempted to quash those rumours and played down the longer-term importance of recent stock market declines.
Japanese deflation concerns have increased following the implementation of a sales tax hike earlier this month.
The next BoJ meeting is on 30 April when the central bank will release its latest long-term economic forecasts.
USD/JPY rallies through morning session
USD/JPY is currently trading at JPY102.2850. The pair has consolidated between JPY102.18 and JPY102.3800 after steadily rallying through the morning session. The pair has gained 0.45 percent on the opening of JPY101.8515.
Apr 16, 2014
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United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks change beat expectations (1.3M) in April 11: Actual (10.013M)
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Apr 16, 2014
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Potential for further GBP strength medium-term - Investec
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, sees the possibility of the GBP to keep the firm footing.
Key Quotes
"The major headline yesterday came on the UK’s unemployment release. The UK unemployment rate ticked under the 7.0% forward guidance threshold to 6.9%, meaning the Bank of England will now alter the focus of their policy stance towards eliminating spare capacity."
"To put this into perspective, when Governor Carney assumed the helm last July, the BoE forecasted the unemployment rate to dip below 7% around the start of 2016, although their latest forecasts from February envisaged unemployment at 6.9% in Q1. Unemployment is now closing in on the BoE’s medium term estimate of unemployment of between 6-6.5%, meaning that that measure of slack is closing, although the new forward guidance means the BoE is now considering a range of indicators not just the unemployment rate."
"Wage growth was also shown to have strengthened further in another positive sign that the economic recovery remains on track. GBPUSD shot up through 1.6800 and followed through overnight to print a four year high at 1.6837 and confirms the GBPUSD up-trend is still intact."
"GBPEUR traded up through 1.2150 back to levels seen in early March before ECB President Draghi disappointed the market with inaction at the monthly policy meeting. With the pound still on a charge, any easing of policy by the ECB next month could likely see GBPEUR print new highs on the year."
Apr 17, 2014
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United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 304 disappointing expectations (315K) in April 11
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Apr 17, 2014
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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change came in at 24B disappointing forecasts (35B) in April 11
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Apr 17, 2014
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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change came in at 24B disappointing forecasts (35B) in April 11
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Apr 17, 2014
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NZD/USD falls below 0.8600
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD is falling on Thursday and recently reached a fresh daily low at 0.8577. The Kiwi is among the worst performers so far and remains under pressure across the board.
Yesterday the NZD/USD managed to finished far from the lows and recovered some weekly losses but the upside was short lived and after the Asian session resumed the downside.
NZD/USD testing weekly lows
Recent slide found support at the 0.8575/80 area, that also capped the downside yesterday. Spot is currently trading at 0.8589, down -0.38% on the day so far.
Below 0.8575 the NZD/USD would be trading at the lowest level since April 4. Next support could be located at 0.8545 (April 2 low) and 0.8510/15 (April 3 low). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 0.8610 (Asian session low) and above here at 0.8650 (daily high).
Apr 17, 2014
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AUD/USD pressuring against daily lows
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Australian dollar is trading on the defensive Thursday, with the AUD/USD having lost nearly half a cent from Asian session highs.
The AUD/USD is currently threatening daily lows, weighed by gold and stocks pullback. However, the downside remains contained by the 0.9335 area, with the Aussie having printed a low of 0.9336 so far and could remain that way as stocks begin to recover.
AUD/USD technical levels
At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9340 zone, recording a 0.29% loss on the day, with next supports lining up at 0.9331 (Apr 16 low) and 0.9300 (psychological level) ahead of 0.9286 (20-day SMA). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 0.9389 (Apr 17 high), 0.9423 (Apr 15 high) and 0.9460 (Apr 10 high).
Apr 17, 2014
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USD/JPY glued to opening levels
FXStreet (Córdoba) - After reaching a fresh 10-day high during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pulled back and settled around its daily opening levels, where it has spent the last hours.
The USD/JPY retreated from a high of 102.56 and entered a consolidative phase amid low volume given that most financial markets remain closed for the Easter weekend. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.38, virtually unchanged since opening.
USD/JPY technical levels
In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 102.56 (Apr 18 high), 102.89 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports could be found at 102.34 (Apr 18 low), 102.00(psychological level) and 101.85 (Apr 17 low).
Apr 18, 2014
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USD/JPY glued to opening levels
FXStreet (Córdoba) - After reaching a fresh 10-day high during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pulled back and settled around its daily opening levels, where it has spent the last hours.
The USD/JPY retreated from a high of 102.56 and entered a consolidative phase amid low volume given that most financial markets remain closed for the Easter weekend. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at the 102.38, virtually unchanged since opening.
USD/JPY technical levels
In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 102.56 (Apr 18 high), 102.89 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports could be found at 102.34 (Apr 18 low), 102.00(psychological level) and 101.85 (Apr 17 low).
Apr 18, 2014
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EMEA EM Express: Pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk refuse to vacate occupied buildings
FXStreet (Łódź) - The talks between Ukrainian, Russian, EU and US leaders in Geneva, aimed at finding a solution to the Ukraine crisis ended in an agreement that efforts will be made to reach a peaceful settlement. The deal delays the imposition of further sanctions on Russia by the West, but this state of affairs may not last long as pro-Russian separatists have already refused to comply with the agreement.
Under the deal, pro-Russian militants are required to disarm and cease the occupation of government buildings in Ukraine, in exchange for amnesty. Kiev on the other hand is to undertake public consultations on constitutional reform.
The success of the agreement has been put into question already on Friday however, as the pro-Russian separatists occupying government buildings in Donetsk refused to vacate them.
“We will lay down our weapons only if the National Guard and other Ukrainian military structures stop attacking us, and if we and our families feel safe,” one of the militants leaders told the Interfax news agency today.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatsenyuk said that the parliament was prepared to approve the amnesty bill for protesters, but that he wouldn't hope for a definite resolution of the crisis.
Many voices were raised asking about the effectiveness of the EU and US response to Russia's aggressiveness and their unwillingness to use force. The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team believe that even though Ukraine and NATO have already responded to Russia's moves, by strengthening forces in the region, no such thing should be expected from the US, which “will not sanction a confrontation with Russia over areas in Europe where it does not have a defense treaty or any strategic interests.”
Despite the skepticism about the validity of the agreement on Ukraine, Russian shares rose by 2.2% in Friday, which is the biggest increase in three weeks.
Economic data
The only piece of important EMEA data released on Friday was Hungary's Gross Wages, which showed 1.7% growth year-on-year in February, up from the 0.9% rise recorded the previous month.
Technicals
The Russian ruble fell against the central bank’s basket of dollars and euros to 41.6574 on Friday, following a 1.4% increase on Thursday. USD/RUB is up 0.25% at 35.5617.
On Thursday the USD/RUB daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, and the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was at 45 at the last close and rose to 51 so far today. The Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 3290 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4105 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 33.6023, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 35.7553.
Apr 18, 2014
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Latin America EM Express: Chile's central bank holds rates steady in April
FXStreet (Łódź) - Chile's central bank held its monetary policy meeting on Thursday, during which it decided to keep the main interest rate unchanged at 4%, in line with forecasts. The recent pickup in inflation was the main reason for staying on hold.
Nevertheless, in the statement released after the decision was announced, the central bank signaled its readiness to reduce rates further: “The board will consider the possibility of making additional cuts to the policy rate in line with the evolution of domestic and external macroeconomic conditions and its implications on the inflationary outlook.”
The Banco Central de Chile cut borrowing costs four times over the last six months: from 5% to 4.75% in October, then to 4.5% in November, to 4.25% in February and to 4% in March. Meanwhile, inflation started accelerating above 3%, the the midpoint of the central bank's target, reaching 3.2% in February and then 3.5% in March.
Economic data
Brazil released its Unemployment Rate on Thursday, which showed a slide to 5% in March from 5.1% in February, against expectations of a rise to 5.4%.
Brazil's April Mid-month Inflation was also published, revealing a 0.78% increase, up from 0.73% seen previously.
Technicals
The Chilean peso was at 557.26 against the dollar on Thursday, down 11% since the October rate cut. On Friday it was almost unchanged at 557.35.
USD/BRL was down 0.67% at 2.2370 today. On Thursday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 45 at the last close, and has declined to 40 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 407 pips, with ATR (14) at 271 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 2.3065, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 2.2540.
Apr 18, 2014
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EUR/USD ends the week lower
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD corrected lower this week and is on track to close with losses, having retreated from levels above 1.3900 scored last Friday.
The EUR/USD slowly pulled back from above 1.3900 to bottom out at 1.3789 and settled in a range over the last sessions, closing the last 3 days almost unchanged. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3816, on track to post a 0.47% weekly loss.
Next week, the US will release a string of housing sector figures along with durable goods orders data.
EUR/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 1.3822 (Apr 18 high/100-hour SMA), 1.3863 (Apr 17 high) and 1.3882 (Apr 11 closing price). To the downside, supports are seen at 1.3796 (21-day SMA), 1.3782 (50-day SMA) and 1.3736 (Apr 8 low).
EUR/USD technical outlook
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet, noted that the daily chart shows the EUR/USD remains above the long term daily ascendant trend line coming from 1.2755, July 2013 monthly low, around 1.3750 for the upcoming week. "As long as above this level, risk to the downside remains contained, while below the pair may attempt a test of the 1.3640/60 strong static support zone. But it will only be with a break below this latter the pair will lose its upward potential".
"Weighted by words, the pair failed to close the weekly opening gap as said before, still waiting there in the 1.3890 price zone: it will take a price acceleration above this last to confirm a retest of the year high in the 1.3966 region, while once above market will be looking to test the critical 1.4000 level".
Apr 18, 2014
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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to 0.2 in March from previous 0.14
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Apr 21, 2014
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United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index dipped from previous 0.53 to 0.2 in March
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Apr 21, 2014
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USD/CAD prints fresh daily highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD rose to fresh daily highs at the beginning of the American session following the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, although it lacked follow-through to stage a steepest rally.
The USD/CAD climbed to a peak of 1.1029, surpassing its Friday's high, and it was last at 1.1025, virtually unchanged on the day. On the upside, the 1.1045 area, April top, stands as immediate resistance to clear.
USD/CAD technical perspective
"We think USD/CAD has done enough to steady and improve going forward from a medium-term technical point of view and feel that a firm base is developing now below 1.0950. We look for a better bid tone to emerge for funds as North American trade picks up today", said the TD Securities analyst team. "USD-supportive US-Canada spreads in the belly of the curve suggest limited downside and more upside potential (towards 1.13) in the near-term. We think gains through 1.1060/70 will be supportive for the near-to-medium-term outlook for USD/CAD".
Apr 21, 2014
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GBP/USD breaks below 1.6800 to daily lows
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is extending losses against the US Dollar as the GBP/USD just broke the 1.6800 in the American opening bell and now it's pricing at daily lows around 1.6790.
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6793, flat on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6821 and low at 1.6782.
GBP/USD levels
If the pair remains below the 1.6800 area, the GBP/USD would face supports at 1.6775, 1.6750 and then 1.6720. On the upside, resistances are at 1.6805, 1.6815 and 1.6840.
Apr 21, 2014
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AUD/USD emerges to fresh highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD gathered momentum and pushed to fresh daily highs early New York session, supported by a positive opening in Wall Street.
The AUD/USD rose to a high of 0.9346, but the 100-hour SMA offered resistance forcing the pair to recede a tad. At time of writing, the Aussie is trading at the 0.9340 zone, up 0.15% on the day.
AUD/USD technical outlook
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes the AUD/USD shows no directional bias in short-term charts but "the pair remains in control of bears after reaching 0.9460 early April, with scope to extend down to 0.9260 strong midterm support".
Bednarik sees immediate support levels at 0.9320, 0.9290 and 0.9260, while she places resistance levels at 0.9355, 0.9390 and 0.9445.
Apr 21, 2014
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AUD/USD emerges to fresh highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD gathered momentum and pushed to fresh daily highs early New York session, supported by a positive opening in Wall Street.
The AUD/USD rose to a high of 0.9346, but the 100-hour SMA offered resistance forcing the pair to recede a tad. At time of writing, the Aussie is trading at the 0.9340 zone, up 0.15% on the day.
AUD/USD technical outlook
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes the AUD/USD shows no directional bias in short-term charts but "the pair remains in control of bears after reaching 0.9460 early April, with scope to extend down to 0.9260 strong midterm support".
Bednarik sees immediate support levels at 0.9320, 0.9290 and 0.9260, while she places resistance levels at 0.9355, 0.9390 and 0.9445.
Apr 21, 2014
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AUD/USD emerges to fresh highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD gathered momentum and pushed to fresh daily highs early New York session, supported by a positive opening in Wall Street.
The AUD/USD rose to a high of 0.9346, but the 100-hour SMA offered resistance forcing the pair to recede a tad. At time of writing, the Aussie is trading at the 0.9340 zone, up 0.15% on the day.
AUD/USD technical outlook
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes the AUD/USD shows no directional bias in short-term charts but "the pair remains in control of bears after reaching 0.9460 early April, with scope to extend down to 0.9260 strong midterm support".
Bednarik sees immediate support levels at 0.9320, 0.9290 and 0.9260, while she places resistance levels at 0.9355, 0.9390 and 0.9445.
Apr 21, 2014
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USD/JPY fails to sustain gains
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY failed to sustain gains and pulled back from 2-week highs during the European session as the greenback weakened broadly as volume returns to normal after the long weekend.
The USD/JPY peaked at 102.71 and retreated to a low of 102.40 before finding support and settling in a slim range where it has spent the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 102.52, a few pips below its opening price.
In the macroeconomic domain, the US will release Feb housing price index and Mar existing home sales.
USD/JPY technical levels
In terms of technical levels, the USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 102.71 (Apr 22 high), 102.89 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). On the downside, supports are seen at 102.41/37 (Apr 22 low/50-day SMA) and 102.00 (psychological level).
Apr 22, 2014
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United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) up to -0.2% in March from previous -0.4%
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Apr 22, 2014
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United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM) up to -0.2% in March from previous -0.4%
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Apr 22, 2014
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US: Existing Home Sales down to 4.59M in March
FXStreet (Łódź) - US Existing Home Sales were at 4.59M in March, down from 4.60M in February the National Association of Realtors informed on Tuesday. Analysts projected a 4.55M result.
This is a change of -0.2% from last month.
Apr 22, 2014
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The AUD/USD tears apart the 0.9370
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Aussie jumped above the 0.9370 following the latest set of upbeat economic data including housing and manufacturing index in the United States and the consumer confidence in the Eurozone.
After rallying around 20 pips from 0.9355 in the latest few minutes, the AUD/USD broke above previous highs of 0.9370 and it has reached fresh daily highs at 0.9380. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.9371, up 0.47% on the day.
AUD/USD levels
Above the 0.9380, the AUD/USD would face next resistances at 0.9390, 0.9425 and 0.9460. On the downside, supports are at 0.9320, 0.9310 and 0.9270.
Apr 22, 2014
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USD/CAD soars to 2-week highs





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD bounced to the upside from 1.1000, despite better-than-expected economic data from Canada and climbed to 1.1042, reaching the highest price since April 3. Currently trades at 1.1035/37, up 0.23% from today’s opening price.


USD/CAD rebound sharply at 1.100


After the release of the wholesale sales report of February in Canada, that rose 1.1% above the 0.7% expected, the USD/CAD fell to 1.1000, the lowest price since last Friday.


When it was ready to break the trading range and the 1.1000 mark, that limited the price since the beginning of the week, reversed sharply and jumped. Price broke above 1.1030, the upper limit of the range and rose quickly to 1.1042.







Apr 22, 2014

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USD/JPY remains bullish - UOB





FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Market Strategy Team at UOB Group keeps the bullish stance for the USD/JPY.


Key Quotes


"Despite the lack of follow through, we continue to maintain a marginally bullish view for further USD strength towards 103.40. Expect any pullback to hold above the key support at 102.00"






Apr 23, 2014

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Latin America EM Express: Colombia steps up dollar purchases
FXStreet (Łódź) - This week Colombia's Finance Minister Mauricio Cardenas announced that the country's central bank would increase its dollar purchases, following the considerable strengthening of the peso over the last month.
The currency has been propped up by an increase in foreign investment in Colombia's financial markets. Today the peso was trading around 1,938 against the greenback, compared with around 2,040 one month ago.
The central bank's dollar purchases in its daily spot market interventions, averaging 10 million dollars a day, have been boosted by 80%.
The BBH Global Currency Strategy Team comment: “To be clear, the central bank is still working within the $1 bln purchase program for Q2 that it set at its March meeting but is just front-loading it and responding to increased inflows.”
“Fresh inflows are in part related to the increase in weighting of Colombia in the JPM local currency bond index. We think that 1900 is the line in the sand (for now). If the EM rally continues, they can slow the move but not stop it.”
Economic data
Mexico's annual 1st half-month Inflation, released on Thursday, slowed down to 3.53% in April from 3.76% in March, increasing expectations that the country's central bank will remain on hold for the rest of the year in order to prop up the economic recovery. 1st half-month Core Inflation jumped to 0.26%, from 0.11%.
On Wednesday Banco Central do Brasil informed that the Brazilian Foreign Exchange Flows increased to 3.38B from 1.00B
Technicals
USD/MXN was up by 0.33% at 13.1072 at the moment of writing. On Wednesday the daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI sat at 47 at the last close, and has risen to 74 so far today. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was shrinking at 318 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 726 pips. The 1D 200 SMA was at 13.0660, while the 1D 20 EMA was at 13.0740.
Apr 24, 2014
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USD/CHF retreats from 0.8850
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF rose after the release of US economic data to 0.8855 reaching a fresh daily high but quickly lost momentum and pulled back sharply, erasing gains in a few minutes. The US dollar weakened also gains the other European currencies.
Currently the pair trades at 0.8818, down 0.18% for the day so far, after falling almost 50 pips since the beginning of the American session.
USD/CHF and a strong barrier around 0.8850/60
Once again the area around 0.8855 capped the upside, just like it did in the previous three trading days. The USD/CHF was rejected again from those levels and so far it has been able to hold above Wednesday’s lows that lie at 0.8806.
Apr 24, 2014
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GBP/USD toying with 1.6800





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After dipping to sub-1.6770 levels, the GBP/USD gathered pace and is now creeping back to the boundaries of 1.6800 the figure.


GBP/USD back to session highs


The pound is now challenging intraday peaks around the 1.6800 handle amidst a better tone in the risk-associated assets. Spot is recovering some ground lost after Wednesday’s deep sell-off, looking to regain recent highs in the mid-1.6800s. The next risk event for the sterling will be tomorrow’s UK retail sales, with the headline print expected to contract 0.4% in March. “The resistant at 1.6838/43 is turning out to be stronger than expected and unless there is a move above this level soon, the weakening upward momentum suggests an increasing risk that GBP is close to making an interim top. In other words, a break below the key support at 1.6720 would indicate that the recent high at 1.6843 is the extent of the current bullish phase and a deep pullback can be expected in the days ahead”, commented Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group.


GBP/USD levels to watch


At the moment the pair is up 0.10% at 1.6798 with the next resistance at 1.6836 (high Apr.23) ahead of 1.6842 (2014 high Apr.23) and then 1.6845 (high Nov.18 2009). On the downside, a break below 1.6762 (low Apr.23) would expose 1.6721 (low Apr.16) and finally 1.6716 (21-d MA).






Apr 24, 2014

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USD/JPY slowly trims daily losses





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY fell nearly half a cent and printed fresh daily lows as the pair came under pressure falling rejection from the 102.65 area during the NY session.


The USD/JPY spiked to daily highs following solid US durable goods orders data, but quickly turned south and fell all the way to 102.08. However, the pair seems to be unable to set a longer-term direction and continues to consolidate within familiar boundaries. At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 102.35, recording a 0.18% loss on the day.


USD/JPY technical levels


In terms of technical levels, on the upside resistances line up at 102.71 (Apr 22 high), 102.88 (100-day SMA) and 103.00 (psychological level). Meanwhile, supports are seen at the 102.08/00 zone (Apr 24 low/psychological level) and 101.85 (Apr 17 low).






Apr 24, 2014

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EUR/JPY rebota en 141.00





FXStreet (Córdoba) - El EUR/JPY cayó luego de la apertura de Wall Street hasta 141.04, llegando a mínimos desde el 17 de abril.. Luego el cruce rebotó y subió hasta 141.58, pero no logró sostenerse por encima de 141.50 y actualmente opera en 141.40, lo que representa una caída del 0.17% con respecto al precio de apertura.


Panorama para el EUR/JPY


El Euro va perdiendo momento lentamente luego de haber rebotado la semana pasada desde 140.00. En la jornada de ayer el precio se aproximó a 142.00 pero viró hacia la baja.


El precio no logra alejarse de la zona de 141.50 y desde hace una semana que opera en torno a este nivel. En el camino alcista, la resistencia clave se ubica en 142.00 mientras que a la baja, el soporte a tener en cuenta en el corto plazo es 141.00.





Apr 24, 2014

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USD/JPY briefly fall below 102.00
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar extended its decline against the Japanese Yen in the latest few hours and after falling around 20 pips from 102.15, the USD/JPY made a brief trip to 1-week low of 101.95.
However, pair managed to recover the 102.00 area and currently it is trading at 102.07, down 0.24% on the day, having posted a daily high at 102.50 and low at 101.95.
The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.
USD/JPY levels
If the pair lost the 102.00 area, it would face next supports at 101.95, and 101.85. On the downside, resistance at 102.10, 102.25 and 102.50.
Apr 25, 2014
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United States Markit Services PMI came in at 54.2 disappointing expectations (56.2) in April
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Apr 25, 2014
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United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 84.1 to beat expectations (83) in April
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Apr 25, 2014
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United States Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 84.1 to beat expectations (83) in April
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Apr 25, 2014
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Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate unchanged at 3.5% in April
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Apr 25, 2014
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Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate unchanged at 3.5% in April
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Apr 25, 2014
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Fitch Upgrades Spain to 'BBB+' as fiscal track record is strong
FXStreet (San Francisco) - Fitch Ratings decided to upgrade Spain sovereign rating to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' as the Kingdom's "risks to Spain's creditworthiness have decreased since the sovereign was downgraded" in June 2012.
In addition, the agency affirmed the Spain's "fiscal track record over the past two years has been strong," as "its headline fiscal deficit (excluding bank support) declined by 2.5% of GDP in 2012-13, despite a 2.2% drop in nominal GDP over the same period."
All about excluding bank support in official accounts and that Fitch doesn't expect that early parliamentary elections will not be called before 2015. Debt ratio to peak at 104% of GDP in 2016.
Key quotes:
We project that public debt will peak in 2016 at 104% and decline gradually thereafter, assuming an effective interest rate close to current levels.
The general government deficit remains large, which we forecast at 5.7% of GDP for 2014. Public debt/GDP has risen 11pp per year on average since 2008 and we expect the ratio to peak at 104% of GDP in 2016.
Medium-term forecasts assume some slippage relative to official public deficit targets. The agency maintains its potential growth assumption of 1.5% in the second half of the decade.
Banking sector risks have been adequately captured by the authorities in the context of the 2012-13 financial-sector reform programme (supported by the European Stability Mechanism, ESM) and that additional capital injections required from the Spanish sovereign will not be large.
We assume no official debt relief on Spain's existing EUR41.3bn loan from the ESM.
Spain and the eurozone as a whole will avoid long-lasting deflation, such as that experienced by Japan from the 1990s.
Apr 25, 2014
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EUR/USD consolidating around 1.3870
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now attempting to consolidate in the upper band of today’s range, with the EUR/USD hovering over 1.3875/80.
EUR/USD bolstered by risk appetite
The better sentiment in the risk-associated assets allows the EUR to print 2-week highs, leaving the door open for a retest of recent highs at 1.3906 in early April. Ahead in the week, EMU’s flash CPI figures for the month of April will take centre stage in light of the ECB meeting. “It is our view that the ECB would rather use traditional policy tools before rolling out a programme of quantitative easing. But, whatever it decides it is quite possible that it will be little discernible success in undermining the EUR. In fact, we would argue that there is only one thing that will have a guaranteed effect on bring down the value of EUR/USD in the coming weeks and that would be a strengthening of the USD”, observed Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As of writing the pair is advancing 0.19% at 1.3860 with the next resistance at 1.3906 (high Apr.11) ahead of 1.3935 (high Mar.19) and 1.3944 (high Mar.18). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.3815 (low Apr.28) would aim for 1.3805 (21-d MA) and finally 1.3791 (low Apr.24).
Apr 28, 2014
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GBP/USD finds resistance post spike
FXStreet (London) - GBP/USD spiked this morning alongside the Euro, benefiting from rising risk sentiment and stop triggering, before finding resistance ahead of clustered sell orders.
With GBP/USD making a daily high and low at 1.6860 and 1.6777 respectively, spot is currently trading at 1.6845, up 0.27% on the day so far. The push higher saw cable take out the well-documented option barrier at 1.6850. Gerry Davies of FXBeat comments that he is “getting further reports of more barrier option interest at not only 1.6900 as one would expect, but also barrier option interest at 1.6875” and can see sell orders clustered around 1.6865/75.
GBP/USD Technicals bullish?
GBP/USD spot is in overbought territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish. Currently RSI is at 65.71, down from the last hourly print at 66.64, with ADX at 13.77, down from its previous close at 21.47. RSI is neutral at 61.77, according to the daily chart. On the hourly GBP/USD chart, the 200 SMA is climbing and currently at 1.6806, up from the previous hour close at 1.6800. Over the past 20 days, the exponential average closing price is 1.6740, and trending higher.
GBP/USD Volatility Shrinking?
On the hourly GBP/USD chart, ATR (14) is presently at 7 pips, while 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is expanding and currently 91 pips. Daily 2-Standard Deviation Volatility Bandwidth is at 319 pips and shrinking. The average movement for the current session over the previous four weeks has been 7 pips. Meanwhile, 13:00-14:00 GMT represents peak for volatility, with an average movement of 16 pips over the same period.
GBP/USD Levels
Resistance can be found ahead of spot at 1.6848 [Last Price], 1.6850 (Daily Classic R2), 1.6860 (Daily High), 1.6867 (Daily Classic R3), 1.6879 (Weekly Classic R2) and 1.6918 (Weekly Classic R3). To the downside we see next support at 1.6840 (Weekly Classic R1), 1.6833 (Yesterday's High), 1.6825 (Daily Classic R1), 1.6824 (Monthly High) and 1.6824 (Weekly High).
Apr 28, 2014
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Gold clings to USD1,300/oz level after support from Ukraine tensions
FXStreet (London) - Gold prices are clinging to the USD1,300/oz mark, after being supported by haven demand on concerns over the Ukraine.
The recent rally in the precious metal ended a four-week decline. Gold had climbed to a six-month high in March at USD1,380 on Russian military incursions into the Crimea. In the interim, gold prices declined by 9 percent on hopes that tensions would ease in the area.
Gold remains up 8.1 percent on the year-to-date, but follows a 28 percent decline in 2013, the biggest decline since 1981.
However, there are signs that the rally in gold may be short-lived.
Decline of indiscriminate Chinese demand
Data released overnight by the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department showed that net gold inflows from Hong Kong into mainland China declined to 85.128 tonnes in March, down from 112.314 tonnes in February. The declines were driven by a weaker domestic Renminbi as well as discounted mainland gold prices reducing Hong Kong gold demand from Chinese banks. According to the World Gold Council, China consumed a record 1,066 tonnes of gold last year, overtaking India as the world’s largest gold consumer. The decline in Hong Kong gold demand suggests a slowing of indiscriminate appetite for gold from Chinese banks.
Relative US tightening
A further source of downside pressures comes from the Federal Reserve’s continuing support for the policy of QE tapering. The Fed has cut USD10bn from its asset purchase programme in successive meetings since its first round of tapering in December, with the programme currently standing at USD55bn-a-month. With a return to relatively-tighter monetary policy, investor appetite for gold as a store of value has tumbled.
Spot gold prices currently stand at USD1,299.60, clinging to support around the psychologically-important USD1,300 level.
Apr 28, 2014
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United States Redbook index (YoY) climbed from previous 3.7% to 3.8% in April 25
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Apr 29, 2014
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United States S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) came in at 12.9% disappointing expectations (13%) in February
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Apr 29, 2014
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Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0% to -0.2% in March
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Apr 30, 2014
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EUR/USD flirting with 1.3880
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is now picking up pace as the selling pressure is hurting the greenback, taking the EUR/USD just pips away from 1.3880.
EUR/USD focus on the FOMC meeting
Higher consumer prices in Euroland during April combined with disappointing US GDP figures in the first quarter are bolstering the current EUR bull run to the boundaries of 1.3880. The next risk event will be the FOMC meeting, with consensus pointing to an extra $10 billion taper. “The important take away from the inflation reports is that speculation that the ECB may initiate a QE program in May seems reduced”, commented analysts at BBH Global Currency Strategy Team.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As of writing the pair is advancing 0.41% at 1.3868 with the next hurdle at 1.3880 (high Apr.29) ahead of 1.3906 (high Apr.11) and finally 1.3935 (high Mar.19). On the other hand, a break below 1.3771 (low Apr.30) would target 1.3738 (low Apr.8) en route to 1.3729 (100-d MA).
Apr 30, 2014
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GBP/USD reaches 1.6900, fresh multi-year high
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Cable rose further against the US dollar and reached the strongest levels since August 2009. The GBP/USD climbed to 1.6900 hitting a fresh daily high ahead of the FOMC statement as the US dollar plunged across the board.
Greenback weakened after the Wall Street’s opening bell pushing the pair to the upside. Cable was able to break above 1.6855/60, where previous highs lie and soared to 1.6900 that capped the upside.
Currently GBP/USD is pulling back slightly and trades at 1.6888, up 0.35% and rising for the third day in a row, headed toward the highest daily close since 2009.
Apr 30, 2014
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USD/JPY falls toward 102.00 ahead of the FED
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY dropped further during the American session and hit a fresh 2-day low at 120.02, as US government bond yields reached fresh lows ahead of the FOMC statement.
After the release of the ADP employment report the USD/JPY jumped to 102.65 but then after GDP data reversed and turned to the downside, accelerating following Wall Street opening bell as the US dollar tumbled across the board.
USD/JPY technical levels
To the upside, immediate resistance could be located at 102.30 and above here at 102.65/70 (daily high) and 102.95. To the downside, the area around 102.00 is the first support to consider and below 101.60 and 101.20.
Apr 30, 2014
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USD/CAD choppy around 1.0950
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD is trading within a 30 pips range on Wednesday, keeping the trade between 1.0950 and 1.0980 so far.
USD/CAD looking to consolidate
Spot is now attempting a consolidation pattern after yesterday’s drop from the 1.1040 region ahead of the FOMC gathering due later. In the data front, Canadian GDP figures came in in line with consensus at 0.2% inter-month in February while the US print missed expectations at 0.1% vs. 1.2% forecasted. “USDCAD slipped a little below retracement support over the past 24 hours but losses below 1.0956 have been limited and price action subsequently looks constructive for funds, from a short-term point of view at least… Bullish “hammer” formations in the 6-hour charts still suggest the near-term likelihood of a squeeze up to the 1.10 area near term. We see solid support on short-term dips to 1.045/5 now”, commented Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.
USD/CAD levels to watch
The pair is now up 0.05% at 1.0950 facing the next resistance at 1.1014 (low Apr.25) ahead of 1.1053 (high Apr.23) and then 1.1069 (50% of 1.1279-1.0858). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.0919 (low Apr.11) would expose 1.0868 (low Apr.10) and finally 1.0858 (low Apr.6).
Apr 30, 2014
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USD/CHF propelled by US jobs data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The dollar rose sharply across the board and took the USD/CHF to 2-day highs above 0.8800 propelled by much better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls figures.
The USD/CHF rose more than 50 pips after data showed the US economy created 288,000 new jobs in April, far surpassing the 210,000 expected, and reached a high of 0.8840 before facing resistance. At time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.8835, recording a 0.51% gain on Friday and on track to post a 0.39% weekly advance, having bounced from a low of 0.8769.
USD/CHF levels to watch
As for technical levels, immediate resistances for USD/CHF could be found at 0.8840 (May 2 high), 0.8850 (Apr 30 high) and 0.8860 (Apr 22 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8782 (May 1 low), 0.8769 (Apr 28 low) and 0.8750 (Apr 10 low).
May 02, 2014
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EUR/JPY returns to 142.00 after peaking to 142.35
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The EUR/JPY attempted a rally from 142.10 as it jumped to 142.35, highest since April 29; however, the pair found selling interest at this level and currently it is trading back to 142.00.
Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 142.07, up 0.12% on the day, having posted a daily high at 142.35 and low at 141.77. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.
EUR/JPY levels
If the pair loses the 142.00 level, next supports are seen at 141.90 and 141.75. On the upside, resistances are at 142.15, 142.35 and 142.45.
May 02, 2014
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EUR/USD bounces sharply and retests daily highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD is staging a mild bounce, trimming some of its intraday losses incurred in the wake of strong US nonfarm payrolls.
The EUR/USD fell to a 2-day low of 1.3811 immediately after the data but managed to recover afterward as in Sebastien Galy analyst at Societe Generale terms, the substitution effect of rising yields gives way to the wealth effect of a rising labour market on risk taking.
The EUR/USD has completely erased intraday losses and it was at 1.3865 at last check. At current levels, the pair would close the week with a slight gain for second time in a row.
EUR/USD supports & resistances
As for technical levels, next resistances for EUR/USD could be found at 1.3888 (May 1 high), 1.3904 (Apr 11 high) and 1.3933 (Mar 19 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3811 (May 2 low/50-day SMA) and 1.3777 (Apr 30 low).
May 02, 2014
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AUD/USD rebounds sharply, rises back above 0.9250
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD bottomed at 0.9200 after the release of the Nonfarm Payroll report in the US, that surpassed expectations, reaching the lowest price in a month but then rebounded sharply and rose more than 60 pips, back to the price it had before NFP.
From 0.9200 the AUD/USD jumped to 0.9274 but then pulled back and currently trades at 0.9255, down 0.19% for the day so far. Initially the US dollar rose across the board but after Wall Street opening erased gains.
According to the ">US employment report the economy added 288,000 jobs is April, above expectations of 210,000. March numbers were revised to the upside, while the unemployment rate fell from 6.7% to 6.3%.
May 02, 2014
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GBP/USD regains 1.6880
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The GBP/USD is regaining the 1.6880 level and thus extending the bounce off session troughs near 1.6820 post-US Payrolls.
GBP/USD capped by 1.6900
Positive economic indicators during this week allowed the sterling to print new multi-year highs vs. the greenback beyond the 1.6900 handle, although spot was unable to trade back to those levels so far. “We continue to see only a 25% chance that the BoE can hike this year, but admit that risk is rising”, commented strategists at TD Securities. Today’s Payrolls in the US economy (288K act.) largely surpassed expectations, albeit the subsequent spike in USD was totally reverted soon after.
GBP/USD levels to watch
The pair is now losing 0.11% at 1.6875 with the next support at 1.6841 (10-d MA) followed by 1.6821 (low May 2) and finally 1.6805 (low Apr.3). On the upside, a break above 1.6921 (high May 1) would aim for 1.7000 (psychological level) and then 1.7044 (high Aug.5 2009).
May 02, 2014
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United States 6-Month Bill Auction remains at 0.045%
Read more in Forex News
May 05, 2014
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USD/CAD broadly bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities explained the events around USD/CAD and remains broadly bullish for funds.
Key Quotes
"The CAD has been subdued in quiet trade so far this wee. Volatility may pick up in the days ahead, however as the Canadian economic release schedule picks up a little more this week—trade data are released Tuesday (we look for a weak-ish report and note that the contents of last week’s US trade data did not augur too positively for Canada), housing data follow Wednesday and Thursday and the employment report is out on Friday (market consensus is for a 15k gain after the 42.9k rise in March)."
"We remain bullish on the broader outlook for USD/CAD—better US data should, eventually, push US yields more obviously higher and pull the USD higher alongside. The better US non-farm payroll numbers last week suggest that the US economy is gathering some momentum after the recent, weather-related softness."
"As Governor Poloz has pointed out in his recent remarks however, there are some sectors of the Canadian economy that are not picking up as much as we might expect due to structural challenges and lost competitiveness. We continue to believe that a slightly softer CAD will have to be part of the solution to that particular challenge."
"From a short-term point of view, we would also highlight that early May tends to be a little more seasonally supportive for USD/CAD—the early part of the month has been the staging point for short, sharp rallies in USD/CAD in the past few years. We note an average 6.6% rally in funds from the low point of the market in late April or early May over the following 4-8 weeks since 2010 and note a seasonal bias towards USD/CAD strength in the period going back a number of years beyond that as well. Over the past 10 years, May has also seen the biggest jump in short-term implied volatility of any month in the year."
"As such, and with a firm base in place at 1.0860 from a technical point of view still, we rather think that risk/reward considerations favour USD/CAD longs from current—or very near—levels. Technically, short-term patterns looks positive—despite the USD’s failure to thrive following the US NFP release last week."
"Gains through 1.1000/10 should be a short-term positive for USD/CAD. We spot firm support at 1.0940/50 now."
May 05, 2014
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USD/CAD reverses and falls to 1.0950
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD rose at the beginning of the American Session to 1.0989, reaching a fresh daily high but then weakened and reversed sharply falling to 1.0951, hitting a new daily low.
Technical outlook for the USD/CAD
Despite moving from a daily high to a low in a few hours, the short term bias in unclear and continues to favor sideways moves. Since last Wednesday the USD/CAD operates with support above 1.0940/50 and resistance below 1.1000.
In the long term, the trend still favor the upside but since March it's moving to the downside, with a corrective bias, that so far has found support at 1.0850.
May 05, 2014
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GBP/USD sidelined around 1.6870
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is now posting marginal losses vs. the greenback, with the GBP/USD hovering over 1.6865/70.
GBP/USD focus on PMI, BoE
The pair is attempting a consolidation pattern after hitting multi-year highs beyond 1.6900 the figure last week, ahead of the relevant services PMI in the UK economy tomorrow (57.6 exp.) and the BoE MPC gathering on Thursday. “The strength of the UK economy, and this quarter it will likely surpass its pre-crisis peak is helping to widen interest rate differentials in sterling's favor. We look for bulls to continue to absorb the offers ahead of $1.70 and eventually drive sterling through there… The $1.6780-$1.6800 area is forming an important area. It probably requires a break of $1.6760 to suggest a break out”, observed analysts at BBH Global Currency Strategy Team.
GBP/USD levels to consider
As of writing the pair is retreating 0.03% at 1.6867 with the immediate support at 1.6835 (10-d MA) ahead of 1.6821 (low May 2) and finally 1.6805 (low Apr.30). On the flip side, a break above 1.6894 (high May 2) would aim for 1.6921 (high May 1) and then 1.7000 (psychological level).
May 05, 2014
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ECB to make a move? – BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Turning to the ECB, Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that most observers recognise that with the small uptick in the flash April CPI and the new staff forecasts not available until June, a move this week is unlikely.
Key Quotes
“A stand pat ECB decision, however, even with the ongoing threats of more dramatic action, could see the euro push higher as the event risk passes."
"New staff forecast for growth and inflation are important, but only for one set of ECB challenges, namely the threat of deflation. We expect the staff forecasts to continue to be consistent with other economists, including the team at the IMF, that indicate little chance of deflation in the euro area as a whole."
"The IMF’s forecasts point to Greece as the only member to experience deflation this year. Also of note, today’s new EU forecasts cut 2014 inflation to 0.8% from 1.0% and the 2015 forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%."
"The staff currently forecasts headline inflation in the euro area at 1.0% this year and 1.3% in 2015. There does not seem to be a compelling case to change these at this juncture."
May 05, 2014
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USD/JPY nestled back in on the 102 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY is trading at 102.09, having posted a daily high at 102.27 and low at 101.86
USD/JPY remains on the 102 handle having reclaimed the territory post falling below the psychological level to the lows with the continued violence in Ukraine that gives the safe haven and risk off JPY an advantage.
USD/JPY Levels
Current price is 102.10, with resistance ahead at 102.13 (Yesterday's Low), 102.18 (Weekly Low), 102.20 (Daily Open), 102.27 (Daily High) and 102.32 (Hourly 100 SMA). Next support to the downside can be found at 102.08 (Hourly 20 EMA), 101.87 (Daily Classic S1), 101.86 (Daily Low), 101.80 (Weekly Classic S1) and 101.55 (Daily Classic S2).
USD/JPY chart formations
Looking at price patterns, we can see a Piercing Line 1-hour candlestick formation.
May 05, 2014
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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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