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BoE Minutes: Scope remains to absorb spare capacity further before raising bank rate





FXStreet (Łódź) - The BoE Minutes from the MPC monetary policy meeting held on 5 and 6 February and released today revealed that the Committee voted unanimously in favor of maintaining the interest rate at 0.5% and the stock of asset purchases at £375 billion.


UK inflation slowed down back to the 2% target in December, partly due to the strength of the pound. The MPC expects the CPI rate to stay close or slightly below the 2% over the forecast period and indicates that the inflation outlook depends on “the pace at which slack was

absorbed and the impact that slack had on wages and prices” as well as the moves in commodity prices and in the exchange rate.


Domestic recovery has been advancing steadily, in line with projections, while unemployment had fallen more sharply than expected. Growth remained robust, although productivity has been lagging behind. The MPC expects UK recovery momentum to continue in coming quarters. The recent emerging volatility poses a downside risk to the recovery, but on the other hand concerns about the Eurozone economy have eased.


Furthermore, the MPC indicated that with the unemployment rate still above the 7% threshold, it was decided that the current policy guidance should remain unchanged.


According to the minutes: “The Committee judged that there remained scope to absorb spare capacity further before raising Bank Rate. When Bank Rate did begin to rise, it expected that the appropriate path, so as to eliminate slack over the next two or three years and keep inflation close to target,would be gradual.”












Feb 19, 2014

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GBP/USD remains below 1.6700




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD continues to consolidate below the 1.6700 mark Wednesday with the latest string of US data having little impact on the pair.


The GBP/USD was weighed by disappointing UK employment data during the European trade and fell to a low of 1.6636 before finding support. The GBP/USD has managed to trim losses during the last hours and it is currently trading around 1.6675, virtually unchanged since opening.


GBP/USD technical levels


"Yesterday's rebound above 1.6654 low failed to break through 1.6740 crucial resistance and there is a risk of a deeper drowning towards 1.6580 area before renewal of the general uptrend beyond 1.6821", said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "Crucial on the upside is 1.6740".











Feb 19, 2014

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US: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 336K
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to the Labour Department, the Americans that filed in their first initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits fell by 3K last week to a seasonally adjusted 336K in the week ended February 14, a tad above forecasts at 335K and coming from 339K (revised from 339K) in the previous print. Continuing claims, which reflect people already receiving benefits, rose by 28K to a seasonally adjusted 2.981 million in the week ended February 7 vs. 2.953 million in the previous week (revised).
Feb 20, 2014
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GBP/USD completes its recovery and trades positive in the day
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling jumped in the last few minutes against the US Dollar following the US inflation and jobless claims data. With a 45 pips post-data climb, the GBP/USD extended gains and it completes its recovery from intra-day low of 1.6635 to test 1.6700 area.
The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.6680, flat on the day. The short term perspective is slightly bullish according to the FXStreet trend index in the 15-minute chart. MACD, CCI Momentum are pointing to the north while the Stochastic is bearish.
GBP/USD levels
Above the 1.6700, the Cable would face resistances at 1.6725 and 1.6735. On the downside, the Sterling to Dollar exchange rate would find supports at 1.6635, 1.6600 and 1.6520.
Feb 20, 2014
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US January Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey declines to -6.3 vs 9.4 (December)
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Feb 20, 2014
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US: CB Leading Economic Index grows 0.3% in January
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The US CB Leading Economic Index grew 0.3% in January, after remaining flat in December, according to data released by the Conference Board. Consensus pointed to a 0.4% rise.
Feb 20, 2014
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EUR/USD consolidating above 1.3700



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is looking to consolidate its weekly upside above the 1.3700 barrier, taking the EUR/USD to the region of 1.3740/50 so far.


EUR/USD focus on IFO, CPI


The pair would be under pressure at the very beginning of the next week, where the German IFO series are due followed by the more relevant EMU’s inflation figures. Prior surveys expect mixed results from the German indicator and consumer prices in the bloc to have contracted 0.4% inter-month during January. Market participants would follow the G20 meeting over the weekend, where the EM would take centre stage.


EUR/USD levels to watch


At the time of writing the pair is up 0.15% at 1.3740 and a break above 1.3763 (high Feb.20) would open the door to 1.3773 (high Feb.19) ahead of 1.3777 (2014 high Jan.2). On the downside, the immediate support lines up at 1.3689 (10-d MA) followed by 1.3685 (low Feb.20) and then 1.3674 (low Feb.14).









Feb 21, 2014

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AUD/USD falters ahead of 0.9000
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD managed to erase intraday losses during the European session underpinned by the recovery in risk sentiment and European stocks.
After falling to a 4-day low of 0.8937 weighed by concerns over China's property market, the AUD/USD found support and bounced to fresh highs just below 0.9000. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading around 0.8980, a few pips above its opening price, having hit a high of 0.8993.
AUD/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, the pair could find immediate resistances at 0.8993 (Feb 24 high), 0.9000 (psychological level) and 0.9021 (Feb 20 high). On the downside, immediate supports are seen at 0.8937 (Feb 24 & 20 lows) ahead of 0.8927 (Feb 13 low) and 0.8900 (psychological level).
Feb 24, 2014
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Commodities: industrial metals decline on prospect of reduced Chinese demand
FXStreet (London) - Copper prices fell overnight on concerns over declining demand after a Chinese news source reported that some banks had tightened real-estate lending.
Declining industrial demand
The report from Shanghai Securities News said that Industrial Bank co. along with other banks had curbed lending to property developers. The prospect of a slowdown in construction spending in China, the world's largest copper consumer, has knocked 1.23 percent off copper prices, with May contracts currently trading at USD322/lb.
Prices had already been given room for downside after a report released on Friday showed that copper stockpiles had reached a nine-month high.
In addition to copper declines, aluminium and zinc have also seen falls on decreased industrial demand expectations.
Gold rises on growth worries
Gold has risen to a four-month high on US economic growth concerns. US home sales fell to a one-year low on Friday, suggesting a weakening of consumer confidence.
While much of the weak US economic data published so far in 2014 has been written off as affected by the below-normal US temperatures and poor weather conditions, concerns remain over the pace of US growth, fuelling haven demand for gold. The precious metal is currently trading at USD1,332.24/oz, up 0.6 percent.
In addition, silver prices have rallied strongly. Spot silver is currently trading at USD22.06/t oz, up 1.23 percent.
Cold weather adds to natural gas rally
Natural gas futures continued their big 2014 rally, surging to five-year highs on the prospect of continuing below-normal US weather conditions.
Forecasted possibility of the return of disruptive snow to the Northeast has helped push natural gas contracts for May delivery to USD6.44, up 4.94 percent.
Feb 24, 2014
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USD/CAD relentlessly continuing on the offer



FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CAD is extending the bearish short term trend from the highs of last week and last traded at time of writing 1.1060 with a low of 1.1057 and a high of 1.1144.


Strategists at TD Securities explained also that USD/CAD has eased back further since last Friday’s push to retest the 1.12 area. “The 1.1175/1.1225 area now looks fairly stiff short-term resistance for the USD and we could see some further retracement in USD/CAD of last week’s rally near-term (50% Fibonacci support stands at 1.1044) before the market steadies and resumes the move up. Support (key, short-term) now stands at 1.0910 (potential range break down point)”.


USD/CAD Levels


The 20 DMA is 1.1067, the 50 DMA is 1.0895 and the 200 DMA is 1.0525. RSI (14) reads 64.78. Supports are ascending from 1.1000 and 1.1025. Spot is 1.1061 while resistances are 1.1093, 1.1120, 1.1196, 1.1225, 1.1300 and 1.1349.








Feb 24, 2014

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Italy January Trade Balance non-EU down to €-0.894B vs €3.413B (December)
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Feb 25, 2014
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Session Recap: USD steady ahead of US data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD trades steadily within recent ranges versus major competitors as investors await more US data for clues on the economic recovery.
The EUR/USD advanced toward the 1.3760 area but once again lacked strength to clear the 1.3760/80 resistance area and pulled back. The GBP/USD advanced above 1.6700 underpinned by BoE McCafferty comments, but momentum faltered. The USD/JPY retreated a tad, but remains confined to a range.
During the New York session watch for consumer confidence data, Richmond Fed Business Activity survey and S&P/Case-Shiller Home price Indices.
Main Headlines in Europe:
Flash: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank
Germany: Quarterly GDP grows 0.4% in Q4
European open: Asian volatility subdued despite RMB fixing lower
UK: BBA Mortgage Approvals tick up to 50.0K in January
Pound rises to day's high on BoE McCafferty's interest rate hike comments
Commodities: China demand concerns continue to weigh in prices
Feb 25, 2014
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Flash: EUR/USD would remain rangebound - Societe Generale
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale, argues the EUR/USD would remain within 1.3640-1.3840.
Key Quotes
"One effect of importing even more disinflation from EM is that it keeps bond yields down in developed markets. With investors happy to ignore US economic data, and with the ECB doing noting o policy but hinting furiously about what they could do, Bunds and Treasuries are in ranges, peripheral and corporate spreads grinding tighter."
"This remains a backdrop that is marginally unfriendly for both US dollar and Japanese yen. The yen is refusing to ‘play ball' perhaps because shorts are still substantial, but CAD/JPY is a good buy (as mentioned yesterday)."
"EUR/USD is in its range, and unless it breaks 1.3640-1.3840 probably best viewed as such. There is no change to long-term views, and little news to move it today, with German data as expected, US house prices and consumer confidence likely to be ignored."
Feb 25, 2014
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Commodities: gold trims highs, WTI up despite increased stockpile expectations
FXStreet (London) - Commodity markets have been subdued so far, with continuing concerns over Chinese demand.
Industrial metals subdued by lower China demand expectations
Iron ore prices broke below USD120/ton on their fifth-straight day of declines. The bearish trend brings prices to their lowest point since July 2013.
Declines were given momentum on reports that a number of major Chinese banks were curbing lending to the real estate market, with expectations of a resulting decline in steel demand hitting iron ore prices.
In addition, Beijing cut the CNY fixing rate further overnight, down another 0.01 percent to CNY61192. The latest cut from the People's Bank of China brings the fixing to the lowest level since 20 December and comes as the PBoC prepares to widen its trading bands.
The lower fixing and yuan depreciation trend weakens CNY purchasing power. The AUD saw some bearishness overnight on expectations that the weakening Chinese currency would hit demand for Australian commodities.
Gold trims gains
Gold has trimmed some gains after reaching 17-week highs, with UBS analysts today predicting that February will show the first month of net positive inflows into exchange-traded gold funds in a year.
Spot gold prices hit a 17-week high at USD1,345.46 yesterday, supported by continuing below-consensus US economic data boosting haven demand. While much of the below-par US data has been written off as caused by below-normal US temperatures and disruptive weather conditions, concerns remain as to whether the economy will regain growth momentum.
While the US is entering a cycle of relative tightening as the Federal Reserve continues its policy of tapering its current USD65bn a month quantitative easing purchases, Chinese conditions are helping to fuel investor demand for the precious metal as a store of value.
Crude gains despite stockpile expectations
WTI prices have rebounded after trading near a one-week low ahead of today's report from the US Energy Information Administration. Consensus expectations are that the report will show that crude inventories rose by 1.275m barrels last week.
Crude prices have gained 4 percent so far this month thanks to below-normal IS temperatures boosting heating demand.
WTI contracts for April delivery are currently trading at USD102.08/barrel, up 0.25 percent.
Feb 26, 2014
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GBP/USD consolidates below 1.6700
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling is now extending the congestion pattern below the 1.6700 handle on Wednesday, taking the GBP/USD to trade in a narrow range around 1.6680/90.
GBP/USD calmer post-UK GDP
After a short-lived spike to levels beyond the key barrier at 1.6700, the pair pared back those earlier gains and is now back in the 1.6680/90 comfort zone. Ahead in the week, the UK docket includes a gauge of the Consumer Confidence by Gfk, Nationwide Housing Prices and a speech by Governor M.Carney, all due on Friday. “GDP growth remained strong in Q4 2013 (at +0.7% q/q, after +0.8% q/q in Q3). Moreover the growth breakdown is reassuring. Private consumption was again a key driver of growth (contributing +0.3 point of GDP), but investment and net exports also underpinned GDP growth (+0.3 and +0.4 point of GDP respectively)”, commented Catherine Stephan, Analyst at BNP Paribas.
GBP/USD significant levels
The pair is now gaining 0.09% at 1.6681 with the next up-barrier at 1.6728 (high Feb.25) followed by 1.6741 (high Feb.18) and then 1.6800 (psychological level). On the downside, a breach of 1.6642 (low Feb.25) would open the door to 1.6583 (low Feb.24) and finally 1.6541 (21-d MA).
Feb 26, 2014
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USD/CHF has rocketed onto the 0.89 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - The US new home sales rose 9.6% to 468,000 annual rate and these were much stronger than expected. The dollar is firmer across the board.
USD/CHF had been stuck in a tight range and trading on the side-lines in the overall bearish trend. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, explained the downside elements technically and what is required for advances towards the 3rd Feb high, “We remain unable to rule out stabs down to the 0.8832/00 December lows. From here we should see the market recover. The market will need to overcome its short term downtrend, this is located today at 0.8956, in order to alleviate downside pressure and re- target 0.9038 then 0.9082 (3rd February high) and only above 0.9082 will retarget the 0.9164 Fibonacci retracement.
USD/CHF Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.8957, the 50 DMA is 0.8984 and the 200 DMA is 0.9175. RSI (14) reads 75.13. Supports are 0.8766, 0.8800, 0.8830, 0.8850, 0.8891 and 0.8915. Spot is 0.8924. Resistance comes 0.8949.
Feb 26, 2014
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EUR/USD keeps falling, around 1.3660
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling interest is gathering steam around the EUR on Wednesday, pushing the EUR/USD to multi-day lows near 1.3660.
EUR/USD in 2-week lows
The pair continues to give ground as the greenback gets stronger, now falling to test 2-week lows in the region of 1.3660. “As speculation mounts ahead of next week's ECB meeting, talk of a rate cut has increased, even if not seen in the euro itself. There is some speculation that the ECB, which says it is technically prepared and that all options are on the table, will cut the deposit rate, which is now at zero”, commented analysts at BBH.
EUR/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is down 0.51% at 1.3668 and a breakdown of 1.3652 (daily cloud top) would target 1.3646 (21-d MA). On the upside, the initial hurdle lines up at 1.3768 (high Feb.25) ahead of 1.3773 (high Feb.19) and then 1.3796 (76.4% of 1.3894-1.3477).
Feb 26, 2014
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NATO chief urges Russia not to exacerbate conflict in Ukraine
FXStreet (Łódź) - Following Russian president Vladimir Putin's order to put the military at combat readiness, including fighter jets, along the Ukraine border, NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged Moscow today on his twitter account to avoid any action which could “escalate tension or create misunderstanding."
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry summoned on Thursday Russian charge d’affairs in Kiev Andrey Vorobiev and passed him a letter requesting that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet on the Crimean port of Sevastopol remain on base.
Meanwhile, it was reported that Ukraine's ousted president Viktor Yanukovych was spotted in Moscow and he is now allegedly staying a Kremlin luxurious sanatorium outside the city.
Feb 27, 2014
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AUD/USD resilient near 0.8930
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is surprisingly holding quite well on Thursday, with the AUD/USD keeping the 0.8935/30 region as the risk aversion is punishing the riskier assets.
AUD/USD consolidating below 0.9000
The pair quickly left behind the area around the 0.9000 psychological handle, hurt by much lower than expected Capex report during the last three months of 2013, down 5.2% vs. an expected flat reading. “Even without another rate cut from the RBA, the AUD is still vulnerable both to signs that the economy is failing to adjust to the end of the mining investment boom and to concerns regarding the pace of growth in China (Australia’s latest export partner). We maintain our view that AUD/USD could slip towards the 0.86 level on a 12 mth view. We have also reinstated our bearish AUD/NZD call”, noted Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank.
AUD/USD key levels
The pair is now losing 0.26% at 0.8942 with the immediate support at 0.8928 (low Feb.13) ahead of 0.8910 (55-d MA) and finally 0.8821 (61.8% of 2014 rise). On the upside, a break above 0.9050 (high Feb.24) would open the door to 0.9081 (high Feb.18) and then 0.9087 (2014 high Jan.13).
Feb 27, 2014
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Germany: IPC (Feb) rose 1.2% YoY
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Preliminary German consumer prices advanced at an annual pace of 1.2% and 0.5% on a monthly basis, softer than forecasts at 1.3% and 0.6%, respectively. The HICP followed also came in short of estimates, advancing 1.0% YoY and 0.5% MoM.
Feb 27, 2014
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USD/JPY through 102.00 after US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/JPY manages to break above the 102.00 on Thursday, after US Durable Goods Orders surprised to the upside.
USD/JPY bounces off 101.80
Increased risk aversion dragged the pair to session lows in sub-101.80 levels, bouncing to the area beyond 102.00 the figure after US Durable Goods Orders contracted less than expected in January and Initial Claims rose above estimates to 348K in the week ended on February 21. Ahead in the day, market participants would closely watch J.Yellen’s speech due at 15GMT.
USD/JPY key levels
The pair is now retreating 0.28% at 102.07 with the next support at 101.67 (low Feb.20) followed by 101.38 (low Feb.17) and then 101.25 (low Feb.6). On the upside, a breakout of 102.45 (high Feb.27) would expose 102.63 (high Feb.25) and finally 102.68 (high Feb.24).
Feb 27, 2014
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EUR/USD back below 1.3800
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is now retreating to sub-1.3800 levels vs. the USD on Friday, dragging the EUR/USD back to 1.3790/85.
EUR/USD buoyant at 2014 highs
After posting fresh ytd highs near 1.3815, spot is slipping back to the high 1.37s although the EUR remains well bid at current levels. In light of the recent advanced EMU’s inflation figures for February, Analyst Martin van Vliet at ING Bank NV, commented “the stable headline inflation reading coupled with the ongoing signs of economic recovery provide an argument for the ECB to keep their powder dry next week. To be sure, if the ECB decides to ease policy anyway, it will probably merely consist of a small refi-rate cut; the deposit rate would likely stay at zero”.
EUR/USD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is up 0.58% at 1.3789 with the next resistance at 1.3813 (2014 high Feb.28) followed by 1.3819 (high Dec.30) and then 1.3894 (2013 high Dec.27). On the downside, a breach of 1.3694 (low Feb.28) would target 1.3660 (21-d MA) en route to 1.3647 (daily cloud base).
Feb 28, 2014
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USD/CAD breached 1.1100 on data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The CAD is strongly appreciating against the USD on Friday, pushing the USD/CAD to test the support at 1.1100 in the wake of US, Canada data.
USD/CAD in 2-day lows
The pair is now breaching the 1.1100 key support after the US GDP expanded below estimates at an annual pace of 2.4% vs. 2.5% forecasted. Adding to the downside, the Canadian economic activity grew 2.9%, bettering forecasts for a 2.5% gain and up from 2.7% previous. According to James Knightley, Analyst at ING Bank NV, “it looks as though 1Q14 GDP growth is going to be soft too given the damaging impact from bad weather. However, the Federal Reserve appears prepared for this and expects it to be merely a temporary effect. As such we look for the Fed to continue with the tapering of their QE programme at the March FOMC meeting, although weather impacted soft ISM and payrolls figures next week may lead to some market caution on this”.
USD/CAD key levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.42% at 1.1089 with the next support at 1.1074 (low Feb.26) followed by 1.1071 (10-D MA) and finally 1.1055 (low Feb.25). On the upside, a surpass of 1.1145 (high Feb.26) would aim for 1.1160 (high Feb.27) and then 1.1225 (2014 high Jan.31).
Feb 28, 2014
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GBP/USD bounces at 1.6680 following US GDP
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is currently recovering ground against the US dollar following the weaker than expected US Q4 GDP second estimate of 2.4%. The GBP/USD bounced at 1.6680 to price at 1.3725.
The second estimate of the Q4 US GDP shows a growth of 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5% and revised down from prior reading of 3.2%.
The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.6710, 0.16% positive in the day. The short term perspective is now slightly bullish according to the FXStreet trend index in the 15-minute chart. CCI is bearish; however, the Momentum is bullish while the stochastic and the MACD are neutral.
GBP/USD levels
The GBP/USD would face resistance at 1.6770, 1.6800 and 1.6820. On the downside, supports are at 1.6680, 1.6660 and 1.6620.
Feb 28, 2014
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GBP/USD bounces at 1.6680 following US GDP
FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is currently recovering ground against the US dollar following the weaker than expected US Q4 GDP second estimate of 2.4%. The GBP/USD bounced at 1.6680 to price at 1.3725.
The second estimate of the Q4 US GDP shows a growth of 2.4%, below expectations of 2.5% and revised down from prior reading of 3.2%.
The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.6710, 0.16% positive in the day. The short term perspective is now slightly bullish according to the FXStreet trend index in the 15-minute chart. CCI is bearish; however, the Momentum is bullish while the stochastic and the MACD are neutral.
GBP/USD levels
The GBP/USD would face resistance at 1.6770, 1.6800 and 1.6820. On the downside, supports are at 1.6680, 1.6660 and 1.6620.
Feb 28, 2014
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USD/JPY severing the 102 handle
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has severed the upside 102.00 handle despite key technical being eroded on the way down through the three month support at 101.72.
USD/JPY reacted well to the Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices for Q4 Q/Q that beat expectations 1.0% vs 0.7% and 1.3% vs 1.1% respectively. However, the US Q4 GDP disappointed slightly as it only rose 2.4% vs a better expected 2.4%. Up next on a busy day of data we have Chicargo PMI which is expected to ease to 56.4 in Febuary from 59.6 in January (14.45 GMT). Then we have Michigan consumer sentiment at 14.55GMT, expected 81.2 and to round things off we have Pending home sales at 15.00GMT expected to rise 1.8% vs the January disappointment when we had a decline of 8.7%.
Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank said, “The market had been previously capped on the topside by its 55 day ma at 103.28. This guards 104.45 en route to the more important 105.45/50 recent high and long term Fibo”. She also notes a multitude of supports between 101 and 100, “We look for this ‘zone’ to under pin. This area is also reinforced by the 55 week ma at 99.41”.
USD/JPY Levels
The 20 DMA is 102.12, the 50 DMA is 103.31 and the 200 DMA is 100.18. RSI (14) reads 44.32. supports are ascending from 101.07, 101.25, 101.38, 101.60 and 101.99. Spot is 102.01. Resistances are 102.22 102.47 and 102.68.
Feb 28, 2014
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Session Recap: Anything but Ukraine; Dollar on the weak





FXStreet (San Francisco) - The US dollar was the biggest loser in the session as investors were reluctant to take positions on the Greenback ahead of a crucial week ahead. However news coming from Ukraine said that 2,000 Russian soldiers landed in Crimea. Market was dumbfounded.


Late risk aversion didn't benefit the USD today as earlier in the day the US GDP posted a downward revision to 2.4% in the Q4. Expectations were about 2.5%. Stocks rallied to record highs in the S&P however major indexes faded gains with the Ukraine's news and Wall Street closed mixed the day but with solid gains in the week and the month.


The EUR/USD advanced for fourth week in a row to close above 1.3800. In the month, the pair performed a spectacular come-back from 1.3475 priced earlier in the month to reach Friday's high at 1.3825, 2014 high. So what’s next for the EUR/USD? "Mostly it will depend on the main barometers of each economy, the ECB policy meeting and the US employment figures, next Thursday and Friday respectively," comments FXStreet chief analyst Valeria Bednarik.


"The most likely scenario there, is an on hold stance and a mild hawkish speech; in the US, employment tumbled the last months, so my take is that will be the key for March trends, as another bad number will probably put the greenback under pressure, and boost the EUR/USD towards December high around 1.3900," Bednarik adds.


According to the Forecast Currencies Poll, the EUR/USD bullish momentum is expected to extend next week: Our #FXpoll shows the pair may extend beyond 1.3900, albeit bears will take over in a 1 month view. However, the Dollar may lose ground in the short term, but market still believes in taper as we may assume from the Forecast Poll results.


Main headlines in the American session:


Canadian GDP falls 0.5% in December. rises 2.9% in Q4


US: Q4 GDP growth revised down to 2.4% versus 3.2%


US: Chicago PMI slightly up to 59.8 in February


US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rises to 81.6 in February


US: Annual Pending Home Sales fall 9.0% in January


White House: Russian intervention in Ukraine would be a grave mistake...


Ukraine acting president accuses Russia of aggression


Things are heating up in Crimea


US stocks closed mixed the day, but post solid gains in February







Mar 01, 2014

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Flas: JPY supported on geopolitical tensions - BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ, suggested the JPY has been benefited from the Russia-Ukraine developments.
Key Quotes
"The yen has continued to strengthen modestly in the Asian trading session reflecting heightened investor uncertainty relating to the latest developments in the Ukraine. G7 leaders and the presidents of the European Council and European Commission have released a statement over the weekend condemning the Russian Federation’s clear violation of the Ukraine’s sovereignty."
"For the time being they have decided to suspend participation in activities associated with upcoming G8 meeting which is scheduled to take place in Sochi in June. They have also supported the Ukraine’s work with the IMF to negotiate a new loan programme and implement required reforms as well as supporting the Ukraine’s right to choose its own future."
"It follows a request on the 1st March from Russian President Putin to the Federation Council which was granted to send troops to the Ukraine. The Ukraine has subsequently called for a mobilization of troops."
"The developments are already encouraging accelerated capital outflows from the two countries, and will have a negative spill over impact upon the surrounding region. The further weakening of the rouble, with the USD/RUB rate rising to a new record intra-day high today just below the 37.0-level, has prompted the Central Bank of Russia to raise its key policy rate by 1.5 percentage points to 7.00%."
"The rouble has already fallen sharply by around 10% against the US dollar in early 2014 increasing upside risks to the CBR’s 5.0% inflation target. The combination of accelerated capital outflows and tighter monetary policy will weigh further upon economic growth in Russia which had already slowed sharply to just 1.3% in 2013."
Mar 03, 2014
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US Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in January; 1.2% (YoY)
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Mar 03, 2014
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US: PCE rose 1.2% YoY in January
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Commerce Department informed that the US inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, rose 1.2% YoY during January, surpassing December’s 1.1%. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%. The Core reading, which strips the food and energy costs, rose 1.1% over the last twelve months and 0.1% MoM, matching estimates. Personal Income expanded 0.3% on a monthly basis while Personal Spending rose 0.4%.
Mar 03, 2014
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Canada: Industrial Product Price (Jan) up 1.4%
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Canadian Industrial Product prices advanced 1.4% inter-month during January, surpassing forecasts at 0.8% and up from December’s 0.6%. The Raw Material Price Index rose 2.6% in the same period, vs. 0.4% expected and 1.8% previous.
Mar 03, 2014
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EUR/GBP tipped for the upside on firm ECB




FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/GBP has been tipped to keep rates on hold this week and the pair is starting to create a sideways channel post Fridays rally, giving back some of the gains when the pair reached a high of 0.8270.


EUR/GBP is trading between a band of 0.8251 and 0.8223 while that range is starting to narrow between 0.8230/40. There were slight improvements for both the UK and EZ Markit Manufacturing PMI’s.

In respect of the Central Banks this week, RBS analysts explained that this week's March BoE MPC meeting may be dull . However, while financial markets will undoubtedly be preoccupied with the Ukraine, they said Thursday's ECB meeting and Friday's payroll report provide the main macro economic event risks for developed currencies this week. “Last week's stronger than expected Euro area CPI tips the balance in favour of an unchanged decision on interest rates from the ECB. We do not totally rule out the possibility of a liquidity injection (for example, the non-sterilization of the Securities Market Program (SMP) purchases) and this is where most of the event risk for the EUR lies…Given the increasing probability that the ECB keeps policy on hold on Thursday, we expect EUR/GBP to trade a little more strongly this week”.


EUR/GBP Levels


The 20 DMA is O.8251, the 50 DMA is 0.8273 and the 200 DMA is 0.8436. RSI (14) reads 48.57. Supports are ascending from 0.8157, 0.8191, 0.8209, 0.8220. Spot is 0.8236. Resistances are 0.8268, 0.8290, 0.8301 and 0.8337







Mar 03, 2014

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Ukraine Crisis: Putin says sanctions against Russia would cause mutual damage



FXStreet (London) - Putin says sanctions against Russia would cause mutual damage.


• “Threats are counterproductive and harmful”


• Putin says Crimean administration is fully legitimate


• Crimea has “right to self determination”


• “Russia not considering adding Crimea to Russia”


• Russia still preparing for G8: "If they don't want to come, they don't have to"







Mar 04, 2014

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EUR/USD consolidates ahead of NY open
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD managed to advance Tuesday as risk aversion eased following reports that Russian troops on exercises near Ukraine have been ordered back to base.
The EUR/USD climbed more than half a cent and reached a high of 1.3773 during the European trade but lacked strength to break decisively above that level and was confined to a phase of consolidation ahead of the New York open. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3760 zone, still up 0.2% on the day, with no first-tier data scheduled for today.
EUR/USD technical outlook
"Yesterday's slide from 1.3823 high is still limited above 1.3725 support, and my outlook here is bullish, for a break through the crucial 1.3790 resistance, en route to 1.3893", said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "Crucial on the senior frames is 1.3640 low".
Mar 04, 2014
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US: Redbook Index rose 2.7% YoY
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Redbook index advanced at a an annual pace of 2.7% and contracted 1.3% on a monthly basis in the week ended on February 23 vs. previous prints at 2.9% and -1.3%, respectively.
Mar 04, 2014
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GBP/USD struggling around 1.6700
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD recovered some of the lost ground yesterday helped by better market's sentiment amid easing tensions in Ukraine.
The GBP/USD however was weighed by disappointing UK construction PMI and dropped all the way back to opening levels around 1.6665 before the slide was contained. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading the 1.6690 area, 0.2% above its opening price, with immediate resistance at 1.6716 daily high.
GBP/USD technical perspective
Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet noted that the technical picture still pretty neutral according to the 4 hours chart. "The pair has been trading in a 150 pips range ever since mid-February, capped below key 1.6745 static resistance level… only a clear sign the level has been taken will favor an upward rally towards this year high around 1.6820, while dips down to 1.6600, 38.2% retracement of its latest daily bullish run, should continue to attract buyers".
Mar 04, 2014
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Barroso announces EC package of financial support for the Ukraine
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The European Commission has agreed a financial support package to assist the Ukraine.
Speaking today, the European Commission president José Manuel Barroso said that: "The most immediate priority for the EU is to contribute to a peaceful solution to the current crisis, in full respect of international law"
Barroso added: "In parallel, the international community should mobilise to help Ukraine stabilise its economic and financial situation. The European Commission is proposing today a package designed to assist a committed, inclusive and reforms oriented Government in rebuilding a stable and prosperous future for Ukraine. What we propose could bring overall support of at least EUR11 billion over the next couple of years from the EU budget and EU-based international financial institutions."
Key elements of the package agreed today:
• EUR3 billion from the EU budget in the coming years, EUR1.6 billion in macro financial assistance loans (MFA) and an assistance package of grants of EUR1.4 billion;
• Up to EUR8 billion from the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development;
• Potential EUR3.5 billion leveraged through the Neighbourhood Investment Facility;
• Setting up of a donor coordination platform;
• Provisional application of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area when Association Agreement is signed and, if need be, by autonomous frontloading of trade measures;
• Organisation of a High Level Investment Forum/Task Force;
• Modernisation of the Ukraine Gas Transit System and work on reverse flows, notably via Slovakia;
• Acceleration of Visa Liberalisation Action Plan within the established framework; Offer of a Mobility Partnership;
• Technical assistance on a number of areas from constitutional to judicial reform and preparation of elections.
Mar 05, 2014
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AUD/USD resumes advance but holds below 0.9000
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD has slowly moved higher during the European session, gaining back ground after sharp swings in the wake of stronger-than-expected Australian GDP.
The AUD/USD pulled back sharply after being rejected by the 0.8995 area and fell to a low of 0.8933 before resuming the advance. However, the latest bullish attempt has been capped by the 0.8980 zone, confining the pair to a phase of consolidation ahead of the Wall Street opening.
AUD/USD technical levels
At time of writing, the Aussie is trading at the 0.8975 zone, recording a 0.3% gain on the day, with immediate resistances lining up at 0.8900 (psychological level) and 0.9025 (Feb 26 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.8910/09 (50-day SMA/Mar 4 low) and 0.8890 (Mar 3 low).
Mar 05, 2014
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EUR/USD wavers after ADP report
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD bounced from lows and completely erased intraday losses following a weak ADP employment report for the US.
Private employment in the US rose by 139,000 in February from 127,000 the previous month and missing expectations of 160,000 new jobs. The weak outcome weighed on the greenback as investors use the ADP report to anticipate the government ">nonfarm payrolls that will be released next Friday.
The EUR/USD rose to a fresh daily high of 1.3745 right after the data but quickly returned to the 1.3720 zone, where it is 0.2% below its opening price.
EUR/USD technical outlook
"The pair is still in a process of testing 1.3725 support zone and a violation of that area will expose 1.3690 hurdle", said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "A break through 1.3780 will confirm an upmove towards 1.3893".
Mar 05, 2014
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AUD/USD tests daily highs following ADP data
FXStreet (San Francisco) - As far as the USD is trading under pressure following a weak ADP February number, the Aussie joined the environment and after jumping 20 pips in the latest few minutes, the AUD/USD priced at daily highs around 0.8990.
The ADP employment report showed that the US added 139,000 new jobs in February, a weak reading below expectations of 160,000. January figure was revised down to 127,000.
AUD/USD sentiment
The pair remains below the 0.9000 key mark; now it's trading at 0.8980, 0.30% positive in the day. The short term perspective is slightly bullish according to the FXStreet trend index in the 15-minute chart. Indicators are mixed as CCI is bearish while Momentum is pointing to the north and MACD and Stochastic are neutral.
The AUD/USD would face Immediate resistances lining up at 0.9000 (psychological level) and 0.9025 (Feb 26 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.8910/09 (50-day SMA/Mar 4 low) and 0.8890 (Mar 3 low).
Mar 05, 2014
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EUR/USD in highs on German data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD attempted to follow through the 1.3750 level post-German data on Thursday, printing at the same time fresh daily highs.
EUR/USD locked within 1.3720-1.3750
At least the pair woke up from the congestion pattern near 1.3730 after German Factory Orders expanded 1.2% inter-month and 8.4% in a year to January, surpassing previous surveys. “All in all, today’s data send two important messages for the German growth outlook. The near term looks very rosy and industrial production should gain further momentum. To maintain this momentum into the longer term, however, the economy needs more domestic demand”, assessed Carsten Brzeski, Analyst at ING Bank NV.
EUR/USD levels to watch
The pair is now up 0.08% at 1.3741 with the next hurdle at 1.3749 (high Mar.5) followed by 1.3782 (high Mar.4) and finally 1.3793 (high Mar.3). On the flip side, a break below 1.3707 (low Mar.5) would aim for 1.3703 (21-d MA) and then 1.3694 (low Feb.28).
Mar 06, 2014
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EUR/GBP rises after BoE
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP reached fresh daily highs as the British pound weakened across the board after the Bank of England decided to keep its policy unchanged and its interest rate at a record low of 0.5% for fifth year, as widely expected.
The EUR/GBP jumped to the 0.8230 zone but the 10-day SMA offered resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 0.8220 area, recording a 0.1% gain ahead of next key event, the ECB decision at 12:45GMT.
EUR/GBP technical levels
In terms of technical levels, if the EUR/GBP breaks decisively above 0.8230, next resistances are seen at 0.8246 (Mar 5 high) and 0.8259 (Mar 4 high). On the flip side, supports could be found at 0.8205/0.8200 (Mar 6 low/psychological level) and 0.8191 (Feb 28 low).
Mar 06, 2014
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US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) fell from 45.107K to 41.835K in February
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Mar 06, 2014
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EUR/USD spiked to 1.3780 on ECB
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is now back to the 1.3760 region after a brief jump to the boundaries of 1.3780 on unchanged ECB.
EUR/USD propped up by ECB
The ECB finally did not deliver any change in its current monetary policy, disappointing investors who where expecting a 10-15 bps repo rate cut or even moving towards negative deposit rates. Next on tap will be the press conference by President Draghi, which will be closely watched by traders. “We expect the EUR to trade relatively strongly through today's ECB policy decision and press conference, most notably versus the USD. Topside resistance seen at 1.3740-80, while a confirmed break of 1.3815 would add to upside momentum”, suggested Paul Robson, Senior FX Strategist at RBS.
EUR/USD levels to watch
The pair is now up 0.18% at 1.3754 with the next hurdle at 1.3782 (high Mar.4) and then 1.3793 (high Mar.3). On the flip side, a break below 1.3707 (low Mar.5) would aim for 1.3703 (21-d MA) and then 1.3694 (low Feb.28).
Mar 06, 2014
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Flash: EUR/USD pressuring highs ahead of US Non Farm Payrolls - FXStreet





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst notes that as expected, markets had been in consolidation mode ever since Asian opening, waiting for the release of US Non Farm Payroll data.


Key Quotes



“The EUR/USD has remained steady above the broken trend line coming from the all time high of 1.6038, and even completed a pullback to it before bouncing to reach fresh year highs around 1.3882.”


“The strong upward acceleration following ECB decision to leave economic policy unchanged suggest the pair is ready for another leg higher, probably towards fresh highs beyond 1.3900,past December high, albeit cautious investors are rather waiting a confirmation of what is being largely suspected and rumored over the last few weeks: that the US employment sector remains subdue and therefore, the country’s economic recovery.”


“Given that picture, investors are now mostly waiting for a disappointing number to rush into buying mode and trigger a strong upward continuation, eyeing 1.3920 immediate short term resistance, ahead of key 1.4000 figure.”


“But what if the number overcomes expectations? In that case and only if the reading is well above the 150K expected, the dollar may get a temporal boost against the EUR, but buyers won’t hesitate to jump in on approaches to 1.3820 area first, and if this last is taken, around 1.3770.”







Mar 07, 2014

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USD/CAD capped by 1.1000
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness surrounding the greenback plus the upbeat sentiment around the risk appetite is keeping the USD/CAD below the 1.100 psychological barrier so far.
USD/CAD supported at 1.0960
The pair found decent support in the area of weekly lows near 1.0960 on Thursday, managing to gather some steam and attempt an assault to 1.1000 during the European morning. The current rebound would be put to the test however, as February’s Payrolls are due later in the US economy (consensus expecting 149K) along with labour market data in Canada. “A less constructive mix of results (better US data, disappointing Canadian figures) needs to get USDCAD back through 1.1045 (40-day MA) to stabilize”, suggested Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.
USD/CAD significant levels
The pair is now losing 0.01% at 1.0990 and the initial support aligns at 1.0955 (low Mar.6) followed by 1.0911 (low Feb.19) and then 1.0905 (low Jan.16). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1046 (high Mar.6) would open the door to 1.1101 (high Mar.5) and finally 1.1118 (high Feb.5).
Mar 07, 2014
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Canada Unemployment Rate meets forecasts 7% in February
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Mar 07, 2014
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EMEA EM Express: Russian ruble falling for fourth running week on Crimea developments
FXStreet (Łódź) - Ukraine continues to remain in focus in Europe, following the decision of Crimea's parliament to carry out a referendum among the region's residents on whether they want to join Russia or remain part of Ukraine. Sanctions on Russia announced yesterday by the EU and the US don't seem to discourage Putin from declarations that the authorities in Kiev's decisions on the region are illegitimate.”
It was also reported that the Russian military has been carrying out massive drills not far from the border with Ukraine, while the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors sent to Crimea were prevented from entering by unidentified armed men for the second day.
The markets have stabilized somewhat after the EU announced that it would provide aid for Ukraine of at least 11 billion euros. Ukrainian bonds were volatile late on after Kiev suggested that it is considering debt restructuring. In the opinion of the Deutsche Bank Chief EMEA Economist’s however: „under an IMF-led external assistance package, a hard restructuring (e.g. notional haircuts) is unlikely to be necessary given Ukraine's relatively low level of government debt (about 43% of GDP).”
Economic data
The Czech Statistical Office year-on-year Q4 GDP data released on Thursday showed a 1.3% increase compared to the 1.3% drop seen the previous month.
Hungarian Industrial Output grew by 6.1% in January on an annual basis, down from the 6.8% increase registered in December. Month-on-month it jumped 3.1%.
Hungary's PMI data as well as confidence indicators have also been improving and Andras Balatoni from ING says that even though GDP growth is expected to slow down it should still “stay in positive territory”.
The National Bank of Poland released FX Reserves numbers which point to a drop to €75.90B at the end of February from €78.50B.
Meanwhile, the Gross Gold & Forex Reserves released on Friday by the South African Reserve Bank for February revealed a rise to $50.137B, while the Net Gold & Forex Reserves stood at $45.337B.
Technicals
The ruble weakened by 0.4% 42.5630 against the Russia's central bank euro-dollar basket on the news of the Crimean parliaments vote in favor of the region becoming part of the Russian Federation, heading towards a fourth weekly decline.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 67.5537 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 5332 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4046 pips. The 1D 200 SMA is at 33.1000, while the 1D 20 EMA is neutral at 35.6278.
The USD/UAH daily FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates
image6-3_zpse24d6ba9.png

 

 

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  • Dennis#MD changed the title to Financial News And Analysis by Octafx.com

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