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AUD/USD awaiting FOMC and remains range bound
FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD has stuck to a range on the 0.89 handle and between 0.8909 and the 0.8950’s.
The AUD is still trading on the lows after falling on headlines that 'RBA’s Stevens says Australia needs AUD/USD closer to 85 U.S cents. The calendar is very light today at the end of a long week and it seems like traders are sitting on their hands waiting for the FOMC outcome which is still some way off next Wednesday. There is a growing consensus that is looking for a token taper next week of $5-10b.
AUD/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.9158, the 50 DMA is 0.9361 and the 200 DMA is 0.9558. RSI (14) reads 46.21. Supports are ascending from 0.8770, 0.8830, 0.8848, 0.8891. Spot is 0.8938 while resistances are 0.8989, 0.9011, 0.9083 and 0.9125.
Dec 13,2013
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Flash: EUR weak, with eyes on next week’s inflation print - Scotiabank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton, Chief FX Strategist, at Scotiabank notes that EUR is weak, down 0.2% on a broader USD strengthening move.
Key Quotes
“Fundamental data was mainly second tier, with next week’s inflation print a key upcoming risk.”
“Highlighting one of the several factors that has supported EUR this year is the ongoing narrowing in the ECB balance sheet partially driven by LTRO repayments (with the ECB announcing today that €23bn of LTROs will be repaid next week); while the Fed’s balance continues to grow at a pace of $85bn per month.”
“As we move towards the AQR rumours of repatriation and balance sheet preparation are likely to increase.”
Dec 13,2013
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Flash: How will the AUD fair in Chinese data?
FXstreet.com (London) - The AUD has suffered heavy losses since ’RBA’s Stevens says Australia needs A$ closer to 85 U.S cents’ and there has been little data of late for markets to digest for Australia. However, strategists at BBH noted that over the weekend, HSBC flash China manufacturing PMI will be reported.
Key Quotes:
“This will be the first reading for December, and consensus is 50.9 vs. 50.8 final in November”.
“We expect the Chinese economy to maintain its modest growth path into 2014. Indeed, consensus right now is GDP growth of 7.6% y/y in Q4, which follows 7.8% growth in Q3. Growth is seen at 7.6% in Q1 2014 before slowing further to 7.5% in Q2, 7.4% in Q3, and 7.35% in Q4”.
“Despite the modest growth profile, it appears the authorities are prepared to allow further modest yuan appreciation in the coming months”.
Dec 13,2013
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EUR/CAD losing momentum with a sharp fall






FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/CAD has slid into the 1.45 handle from 1.4640 and marking a low of 1.4566.


Strategists at TD Securities said the EUR/CAD is losing momentum. “Still, while the rally flattens out, there are no obvious signs of a reversal. We would note that yesterday’s session saw an outside range day higher; we have remarked before that bullish price signals after an extended run higher (and bearish signals after an extended run lower) sometimes reflect a buying (selling) climax. After a 6 big figure rally with no sort of correction at all, a drop back of some sort would not surprise, especially as the cross is bumping up against bull channel ceiling resistance. Overall, though, the trend up remains well entrenched so a persistent decline is needed to signal a top. We still think the 1.48 area might offer better, medium-term resistance”.


EUR/CAD Levels


The 20 DMA is 1.4380, the 50 DMA is 1.4225 and the 200 DMA is 1.3710. RSI (14) reads 43.14. Supports are ascending from 1.4420, 1.4445, 1.4490 and 1.4545. Spot is 1.4572 while resistances are 1.4740, 1.4775, 1.4815 and 1.4840.






Dec 13,2013

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Session recap: Dollar extends the swing ahead FOMC
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US Dollar extended gains for second day against the Euro and for third session against the Pound as investors remain cautious ahead the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. However, it is too early to talk about a top in place in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
As FXstreet.com's Valeria Bednarik said in a recent report, "taking a look at the daily chart, one may think a double top is under way around the 1.3810/30 highs from October and December, albeit a better look shows the valley in between both, and the level to be broken to confirm the figure, stands at 1.3290."
In a bigger chart, the EUR/USD advanced for fifth week in a row after posting only two negative sessions in the last nine days. The EUR/USD declined on Friday to test lows at 1.3710 but it managed to close at 1.3740.
Other picture in the GBP/USD as the Cable declined for second week to close at 1.6290. The Sterling just closed below the 1.6300, level that used to be support in the previous days. The USD/JPY advanced for seventh consecutive week; the pair reached 5-year highs at 103.91 on Friday, but it felt vertigo and closed off highs at 103.30.
Main headlines in the American session:
US: Producer price index drops 0.1% in November
Goldman: Don't bet on much dollar strength in 2014 despite Fed tapering
FXBeat Weekend Read: A fresh set of eyeballs on the AUD/NZD
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Big bets against the Canadian dollar
Wall Street declines for second week ahead FOMC meeting
Dec 14,2013
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Session recap: Dollar extends the swing ahead FOMC
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US Dollar extended gains for second day against the Euro and for third session against the Pound as investors remain cautious ahead the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. However, it is too early to talk about a top in place in EUR/USD and GBP/USD.
As FXstreet.com's Valeria Bednarik said in a recent report, "taking a look at the daily chart, one may think a double top is under way around the 1.3810/30 highs from October and December, albeit a better look shows the valley in between both, and the level to be broken to confirm the figure, stands at 1.3290."
In a bigger chart, the EUR/USD advanced for fifth week in a row after posting only two negative sessions in the last nine days. The EUR/USD declined on Friday to test lows at 1.3710 but it managed to close at 1.3740.
Other picture in the GBP/USD as the Cable declined for second week to close at 1.6290. The Sterling just closed below the 1.6300, level that used to be support in the previous days. The USD/JPY advanced for seventh consecutive week; the pair reached 5-year highs at 103.91 on Friday, but it felt vertigo and closed off highs at 103.30.
Main headlines in the American session:
US: Producer price index drops 0.1% in November
Goldman: Don't bet on much dollar strength in 2014 despite Fed tapering
FXBeat Weekend Read: A fresh set of eyeballs on the AUD/NZD
CFTC Commitments of Traders: Big bets against the Canadian dollar
Wall Street declines for second week ahead FOMC meeting
Dec 14,2013
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EUR/GBP rises toward 1-month high






FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP bounced off lows and erased intraday losses as the shared currency got a boost from better-than-expected Eurozone PMIs.


The EUR/GBP climbed to a high of 0.8439 but stalled a few pips shy of its 1-month high scored during the Asian session at 0.8442. At time of writing, the cross is trading at the 0.8435 zone, 0.2% above its opening price, ahead of the Eurozone trade balance figures.


EUR/GBP technical levels


In terms of technical levels, if the EUR/GBP breaks decisively above 0.8442, next resistances could be found at 0.8460/63 (100-day SMA/Nov 13 high) and 0.8475 (Nov 4 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8413 (daily low) and 0.8400 (psychological level) followed by 0.8390 (Dec 12 low).






Dec 16,2013

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US: Markit Manufacturing PMI edges lower in December (Prelim.)
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The preliminary reading of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI showed the sector expanded at a slower pace in December.
The Markit PMI decreased to 54.4 from 54.7 the previous month and missed expectations around 54.9, but held in expansionary territory above the 50.0 threshold.
Dec 16,2013
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US: Markit Manufacturing PMI edges lower in December (Prelim.)
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The preliminary reading of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI showed the sector expanded at a slower pace in December.
The Markit PMI decreased to 54.4 from 54.7 the previous month and missed expectations around 54.9, but held in expansionary territory above the 50.0 threshold.
Dec 16,2013
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USD/CHF double bottom pattern attempt?
FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/CHF continues trading below the 0.89 zone although a reverse attempt seems to be consolidating shortly after the opening of the American trading session.
The most recent data releases reveal mixed US results while the stock markets open strong with the Dow up 0.51%, Nasdaq 0.49% stronger and S&P 0.46% higher.
USD/CHF Technical Levels
Technically speaking, the pair is offered at 0.8869 and oscillates between the supports aligned at 0.8840 (December 10th lows), 0.8789 (September 20th lows 2011) ahead of 0.8722 (May 15th lows 2011) and the resistances set at 0.8918 (December 13th highs), 0.8974 (December 6th highs) followed by 0.9031 (November 29th lows). According to the FXstreet.com trend index on one-hour timeframe analysis, the pair is strongly bearish and navigates below the EMA20. If the pair manages to pull off a reverse, a double bottom formation will be evidenced.
Dec 16,2013
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EUR/USD backs away from 1.3800
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD lost momentum and pulled back after testing the 1.3800 psychological level following the latest string of US data and amid Draghi's comments.
Speaking before the European Parliament, ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank is ready to consider all the available instruments as he stated that adjusting interest rates is not always sufficient to maintain price stability. On the data front, US industrial production increased by 1.1% in November, printing its biggest jump in a year.
The EUR/USD retreated from a daily high of 1.3798 toward the 1.3760 zone before the 100-hour SMA offered support. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3765 area, still 0.3% above its opening price.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, if the EUR/USD breaks decisively above 1.3800 (psychological level) it could rise to 1.3811 (Dec 11 high) en-route to 1.3732 (2013 high Oct 25). On the other hand, if the pair falls below 1.3760 (100-hour SMA) next supports are seen at 1.3727 (daily low), 1.3710 (10-day SMA) and 1.3693 (Dec 9 low).
Dec 16,2013
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Flash : EUR/USD, buoyed by data – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (London) - Strategists at TD Securities noted that the Eurozone flash PMI’s were overall better than the market was anticipating, keeping the EUR well supported this morning.
Key Quotes:
“There are a number of data releases in the coming days in both Europe and the US that should make for some choppy price action in EUR/USD, as well as an EU leaders summit toward the end of the week, but the defining event for the pair this week should be Wednesday’s FOMC meeting”.
“With that in mind, ‘taper talk’ will certainly be in focus in the next few sessions, but European bank funding developments are also important to keep an eye on. After the larger than expected LTRO repayment last week, Euribor has continued to edge higher, lending additional support to spot EUR/USD”.
“We remain fundamentally bearish on the pair, but prefer to wait for clearer selling opportunities—perhaps closer to the turn of the New Year”.
Dec 16,2013
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US Redbook index (MoM) rises to -1.4% in December 8; 2.9% (YoY)
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Dec 17,2013
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GBP/USD finds support at 1.6255
FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Sterling seems to have found support against the US Dollar at 1.6255 after falling around 85 pips in the European morning. The GBP/USD bounced at the mentioned level to test 1.6290 area.
Currently, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate is pricing at 1.6270, 0.20% negative in the day. The short term perspective is strongly bearish according to the FXstreet.com Trend Index in the 1-hour chart. MACD, CCI and Momentum are pointing to the south while the Stochastic is neutral.
GBB/USD technical levels
Above the 1.6290, the GBP/USD would face resistances at 1.6300, 1.6335 and 1.6350. On the downside, next supports are at 1.6255, 1.6240 and 1.6120.
Dec 17,2013
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US: NAHB Housing Market Index increases to 58 in December
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index grew to 58 in December, from 54 in November, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to rise only to 55.
Dec 17,2013
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Flash: COT EUR sentiment improved for second week - Scotiabank





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton, Chief Currency Strategist at Scotiabank notes that sentiment towards EUR has improved for the second consecutive week.


Key Quotes


“The net long position now stands at $2.7bln - modest relativ to its October high but still the largest among its peers.”


“Details are suggestive of increasing risk appetite, as both gross long and gross short positions are rising.”






Dec 23,2013

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USD/CAD hits 6-day low





FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Canadian dollar strengthened Monday and dragged the USD/CAD to a 6-day low amid a softer greenback and helped by better-than-expected Canadian GDP.


The USD/CAD broke below the 1.0600 mark and dropped to its lowest level in almost a week at 1.0589, although it found support a few pips above last week's low and settled in a range over the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at 1.0600, recording a 0.4% loss on the day.


USD/CAD technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate supports at 1.0589/85 (Dec 18 low/psychological level) and 1.0571 (Dec 16 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.0652 (daily high), 1.0670 (Dec 9 high) and 1.0700 (psychological level).








Dec 23,2013

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EUR/USD eases some, still frozen
FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) - The EUR/USD eases some over the European morning, but for the most unchanged in ultra thin holiday’s markets. Trading within yesterday’s range, the pair is down on the day, having found some short term support around in 1.3671 daily low, but holding below the 1.3700 level. Anyway, current lack of action will probably extend for the rest of the week, leaving short term traders adrift.
Bottom confirms a long
The steady rise of the pair ever since testing 1.3290 following ECB rate cut past November 7th, seems to have now confirmed more longs ahead, according to Fan Yang, from FXTimes, as the pair reached a “bottom of its price channel and a previously established horizontal support level. This week starts off with the confirmation I was looking for to go long. So, I’ve got my order placed at 1.3650 to go long, with my stop 70 pips below at 1.3580, and a target of 1.4140. I’m seeking 490 pips and risking 70, thus offering a reward/risk of 7:1.”
Dec 24,2013
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US: Mortgage applications extend decline
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Applications for mortgages fell 6.6% in the week ending Dec 20, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
This reading comes after a 5.5% drop the previous week.
Dec 24,2013
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US Durable Goods Orders (November): 3.5%
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Dec 24,2013
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USD/CHF hits fresh highs but loses momentum





FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF pushed higher and printed fresh daily highs during the American session as the greenback gained momentum following strong US data.


However, moves remain shy in holiday-thinned trade with USD/CHF slowing after hitting a 4-day high of 0.8971. At time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.8965, recording a 0.3% gain on Tuesday.


USD/CHF technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the USD/CHF might face resistances at 0.8971 (daily high), 0.9000 (psychological level) and 0.9048 (Dec 5 high). Meanwhile, supports are seen at 0.8915 (10-day SMA), 0.8900 (psychological level) and 0.8840 (Dec 18 low).







Dec 24,2013

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Flash: USD/JPY: Onwards and Upwards - TD Securities




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The BoJ is the only major monetary authority to outdo the Fed in terms of aggressive easing initiatives in 2013, and with the Fed set to trim stimulus through 2014, the divergence should become even more prominent, commented the TD Securities analyst team.


Key Quotes


"That should underpin even further highs in USD/JPY over the course of the next year".


"Our target for a year from now is 110, though the risk to that forecast is for an overshoot".


"At the start of 2014, 105.00/50 will be the first major hurdle".







Dec 24,2013

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Wall Street closes higher ahead Santa's visit




FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US stocks market closed positive ahead of Christmas's break following the better-than-expected data in the United States. Investors are confidence in the US economic recovery.


The Dow and S&P closed at new record highs while the Nasdaq close at fresh 13-year highs.


The Dow Jones advanced 62.94 points or 0.39% to close the day at 16,357.55; the S&P 500 added 5.33 pts or 0.29% to finish at 1,833.32; and the Nasdaq Composite won 6.51 pts or 0.16% to 4,155.42.







Dec 24,2013

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USD/CHF hovering above 0.8900
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CHF is taking a breather, consolidating in a narrow range around 0.8900 Monday, after slumping to a 2-year low of 0.8800 last Friday.
The USD/CHF dropped more than 150 pips Friday and printed a low of 0.8800 but bounced strongly and trimmed losses as the dollar recovered ground across the board during the American afternoon. The USD/CHF finally settled above 0.8900 where it has spent most of the day. At time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.8905, little changed since opening.
USD/CHF technical outlook
"Although USD/CHF plunged more than 150 pips on Dec 27, it recovered most of the losses the same day and managed to settle above the monthly S2", says the Dukascopy Bank Team. "At the moment the pair is challenging 0.8930 and in case of success may set a new objective at 0.8991/75, where the six-month down-trend resistance merges with the monthly S1, a fact that makes a breach of this area a low-probability event".
Dec 30,2013
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Brazilian real shows little reaction after Rousseff's televised address
FXstreet.com (London) - The Brazilian real has shown little reaction so far following Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff’s televised address yesterday evening which focussed on talking up the country’s economy.
Rousseff’s end-of-year speech skirted around the public demonstrations that dogged the government in the summer, and instead took and extremely optimistic stance on the country’s economy. Rousseff claimed that her government had been strongly criticised over its handling of the economy because of her government is the victim of "psychological warfare" by the business community. Despite this, Rousseff conceded that she had been forced to "retouch" and "correct" the economy.
Addressing her detractors, Rousseff said that: "If we dive into pessimism and stay trapped in petty disputes, we will have a smaller country."
In reference to the county’s price rises, Rousseff stated that: “The government is alert and steadfast in its commitment to fight inflation and maintain the balance of public accounts.”
Brazilian inflation once again ran above the Banco Central do Brasil’s 4.5 percent inflation target, with November CPI printing at 5.77 percent.
BRL/USD is currently trading at USD0.4283, up 0.23 percent on the day on thin trading.
Dec 30,2013
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EUR/USD advances toward 1.3800
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD edged higher and printed fresh daily highs at the beginning of the New York session as the dollar weakens slightly along with US yields.
The EUR/USD managed to overcome the 1.3770 zone and rose to a fresh daily high of 1.3788 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3780 zone, recording a 0.2% gain on the day ahead of the next string of US data.
EUR/USD technical outlook
"The big ramp up in EUR/USD though seen Friday has been partially reversed at least today, leaving the 1.38 area as still looking like a zone of fairly strong resistance", says the TD Securities team. "The EUR spike higher came in thin liquidity conditions but the market is clearly reluctant to push the EUR significantly lower at the moment. ECB President Draghi’s remark that there was no urgent need to cut rates again provided some support for the EUR in overnight trading but we continue to view current levels as expensive from a fundamental and technical perspective and we expect the EUR to weaken gradually in the New Year".
Dec 30,2013
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EUR/USD advances toward 1.3800
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD edged higher and printed fresh daily highs at the beginning of the New York session as the dollar weakens slightly along with US yields.
The EUR/USD managed to overcome the 1.3770 zone and rose to a fresh daily high of 1.3788 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3780 zone, recording a 0.2% gain on the day ahead of the next string of US data.
EUR/USD technical outlook
"The big ramp up in EUR/USD though seen Friday has been partially reversed at least today, leaving the 1.38 area as still looking like a zone of fairly strong resistance", says the TD Securities team. "The EUR spike higher came in thin liquidity conditions but the market is clearly reluctant to push the EUR significantly lower at the moment. ECB President Draghi’s remark that there was no urgent need to cut rates again provided some support for the EUR in overnight trading but we continue to view current levels as expensive from a fundamental and technical perspective and we expect the EUR to weaken gradually in the New Year".
Dec 30,2013
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Schaeuble: Greek EU presidency is an opportunity for Greece and for Europe
FXstreet.com (Łódź) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Monday in an interview for the Bild newspaper that Greece would get all the support it needs from the European Union and that taking over the EU presidency will be a “huge opportunity for the country and for Europe."
"The presidency will show the Greek people that Europe is its future," as it will spur “identity, self-confidence, pride” Schaeuble said.
He discarded the possibility of Greece taking advantage of its EU presidency to ease the conditions of the intentional bailout. He also rejected further debt writedowns for the country, signaling however that Greece could get more aid.
Moreover, the German Finance Minister commented on the easy monetary policy of central banks, which “can't last forever” and stated that first signs of the decline in the European money supply are apparent.
The interview has been published following an attack by unidentified gunmen on the German ambassador’s residence in Athens on Monday morning. No one was hurt in the incident.
Dec 30,2013
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EUR/USD hits fresh 2-week low
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD edged a tad lower during the European session and touched a fresh 2-week low, before bouncing to mid-range.
Following a steep fall Thursday, the EUR/USD entered a quieter phase, although it stretched to a fresh low of 1.3627 before settling in a slim range just above. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3640 zone, still 0.2% below its opening price. The EUR/USD remains in a corrective phase after hitting a 2-year high of 1.3891 last week.
Up ahead during the New York session, several Fed members will speak, including Chairman Bernanke, who is ending his term in 4 weeks. "His remarks will be the main focus on Friday as the market will attempt to gauge the Fed's desire to further reduce the pace of QE purchases in coming months", says the TD Securities team.
EUR/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, if the EUR/USD breaks below 1.3627 (daily low), next supports could be found at 1.3620 (Dec 6 low) and 1.3600 (psychological level). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.3671 (daily high), 1.3700 (psychological level) and 1.3720 (20-day SMA).
Jan 03, 2014
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Dollar climbs ahead of Fed speeches
FXstreet.com (London) - The dollar continues to consolidate yesterday’s gains against the euro. The dollar climbed against the euro on the back of stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI numbers which pushed EUR/USD to a low of USD1.3633 before rebounding towards the close of the session to USD1.3663.
EUR/USD is currently trading at USD1.3642, down 0.14 percent in choppy trading. The pair has recovered from an intraday low of USD1.3628, driven by European Central Bank data which indicated that private sector lending continues to contract in the Eurozone.
Markets remain thin with quiet holiday trading carrying into the New Year as a result of a winter storm set to hit the northeast coast of the US.
With little in the way of market-moving data set for release, eyes and ears will be on Fed officials scheduled to speak at a conference in Philadelphia this afternoon (GMT), including Charles Plosser, Jeremy Stein and Ben Bernanke. Jeffrey Lacker is scheduled to speak later at a separate event in Baltimore.
Of particular interest will be outgoing Fed chairman Ben Bernanke who will handover control of the Federal Reserve to Janet Yellen on 31 January. With the minutes from the Fed’s December meeting being released next week, markets will be looking for an insight into the Fed’s schedule for rolling back its quantitative easing programme. In its December meeting, the Fed moved to taper its monthly asset purchases by USD10bn, leaving its monthly purchases at USD75bn, citing the strengthening US economic outlook. It is anticipated that the Fed will taper in further USD10bn increments, ending the programme before December 2014.
Jan 03, 2014
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GBP/USD turns south and threatens daily lows
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD climbed to fresh daily highs during the European session following the release of firm UK mortgage data, but failed to overcome that level and came under mild pressure.
The GBP/USD rose to 1.6473 but failed to sustain momentum and dipped back to the lower-side of today's range, although it has managed to hold above the 200-hour SMA so far, which has been offering dynamic support to the Cable. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.6425 zone, 0.2% below its opening price.
GBP/USD technical outlook
From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com recently commented that failure to maintain gains should see bearish tone building, with a break below yesterday's low (1.6410) triggering a quick short term dip towards 1.6370. "Once below this latter, 1.6320/30 area comes next", Bednarik added.
Jan 03, 2014
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USD/CAD falls toward 1.0600
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD has resumed the slide after the latest recovery attempt was capped by the 1.0675 zone during yesterday's NY session.
USD/CAD holding above 1.0600
The USD/CAD has pulled back sharply from highs as the greenback recedes on better risk sentiment, dropping to a low of 1.0601 so far. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0610 zone, recording a 0.5% loss on the day.
USD/CAD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, if the USD/CAD falls below 1.0600, next supports are seen at 1.0587 (Jan 2 low) and 1.0580 (Dec 23 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.0677 (Jan 2 high), 1.0700 (psychological level) and 1.0726 (Dec 30 high).
Jan 03, 2014
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EUR/GBP rallies after services PMI numbers







FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP has rallied after Eurozone composite Markit services PMI numbers matched expectations with gains on the November print. In contrast, the UK missed expectations, despite continuing to show solid expansion. The pair is currently trading at GBP0.8318.


Modest Eurozone growth despite fragility


The Eurozone composite posted a three-month high of 52.1 in December, up from 51.7 in November, and its second highest level in two-and-a-half years. The Markit report showed that manufacturing continued to lead the recovery. Growth of production accelerated to its fastest since May 2011, as new orders improved aided by a solid increase in new export business.


As may continue to be a running theme for 2014, carrying through from 2013, France and Italy were the rotten apples in the basket. French services again contracted, printing at 47.8, down from November’s 48.0. Italy posted 47.9, beating the November print of 47.2, but still indicating contraction.


UK misses expectations despite robust expansion


By contrast, the UK showed much more robust economic activity, but missed its higher expectations in comparison with the Eurozone. Expectations were for a slight gain on November’s print of 60.0, with the seasonally-adjusted headline business activity index coming in at 58.8, a six-month low.


The Markit report said that UK service sector continued to expand strongly as 2013 came to an end, with activity, new business and employment all again rising at marked rates. It indicated that confidence among service providers was at its highest in nearly four years.


Indication of potential upside wage pressure


The numbers also gave positive news for UK wages, which have continued to slump in real terms, despite a strongly improving UK macro picture. There was further evidence of capacity pressures in December, with backlogs of work rising for a ninth successive month. Many companies responded to rising workloads by adding to their payroll numbers at a marked pace. Employment rose for a twelfth successive month.


EUR/GBP rallies strongly on expectation miss


The pair is currently trading at GBP0.8318 after hitting highs at GBP0.8331. The pair is up 0.38 percent on the day after opening at GBP0.8284. The next major event will be German consumer price index numbers for December, due at 13:00 GMT.







Jan 06, 2014

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Flash: The Euro´s resilience is striking - BBH
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that the euro is consolidating at the upper end of yesterday's range.
Key Quotes
“Immediate resistance is seen in the $1.3655-75 area. The euro's resilience is striking.”
“We note that EONIA, which peaked at the end of the year near 45 bp, is now below 10 bp. The US-German 2-year spread was just below 7 bp in mid-December and 17 bp today.”
Jan 07, 2014
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EUR/CAD’s bullish performance
FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/CAD has been one of the best performers on the session.
Strategists at TD Securities explained that EURCAD’s recovery has taken back about half of last week’s sell off already this week. “The broader trend higher remains intact but the rally did hit a big technical roadblock with last week’s reversal from 1.48+ levels and short-term momentum has weakened considerably this week. The bounce from the mid 1.44 area (38.2% of the Nov/Dec rally and 28-day MA) ought not extend that much more if last week’s weekly bear reversal signal is to remain an influence on near-term price swings. Losses should extend below 1.4450 towards 1.41/1.42”.
EUR/CAD Levels
The 20 DMA is 1.4590, the 50 DMA is 1.4380, and the 200 DMA is 1.3820. RSI (14) reads 37.80. Supports are ascending from 1.4240, 1.4300, 1.4330, 1.4370, 1.4425, 1.4535. Spot is 1.4628 with resistances at 1.4660 and 1.4775.
Jan 07, 2014
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US's Lew praises German government for promoting domestic investment
FXstreet.com (Łódź) - On Wednesday US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew held a joint press conference with German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in Berlin, during which he praied Europe's progress in overcoming the crisis in the banking sector and Germany's decision to boost domestic spending.
“Over the course of this past year, I think we’ve seen very constructive movement to get the balance right between fiscal consolidation and growth,” Lew said “We can continue to discuss where that balance should be, but it’s moved in the right direction, from our perspective.”
The German Finance Minister assured that it was important for Germany to see the US economy strengthening. He also stressed the need of preventing the formation of asset bubbles.
"We must keep a watch on liquidity levels to ensure new bubbles aren't being created," Schaeuble said, adding however that monetary policy should be established by central banks, not politicians.
Jan 08, 2014
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Flash: The BoC unlikely to cut or hike rates in 2014 - Scotiabank
FXstreet.com (London) - Camilla Sutton, Senior FX Strategist at Scotiabank notes that the BoC is unlikely to cut or hike rates in 2014.
Key Quotes
“Governor Poloz’ interview on the Lang and O’Leary show sug‐gests that the BoC will not cut or hike rates this year; that Governor Poloz is focused on the Bank’s inflation mandate and that it is not focused on a level of CAD.”
"The interview was neutral for CAD, but provides a succinct overview of Governor Poloz’ views and highlights that inflation releases will be important data points for CAD.“
Jan 08, 2014
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USD/CHF U-turned sub the 0.91 handle and some
FXstreet.com (Guatemala) - USD/CHF has caught some on the wrong side of the market, smashing through the 0.91 handle post the knee jerk reaction to the ADP employment report which has been the highlight on todays calendar.
The ADP employment report showed the US private sector added 238,000 new jobs in December, beating forecast of 200,000. Meanwhile, November ADP jobs number was revised up 14,000 to 229,000. The news took the unit on a spike of some 25 pips higher off the 0.91 handle but was soon hit by supply by the commitment of the bears and stops were run down to 0.9082, taking the pair all the way back to where we had started off today. Meanwhile, all eyes are going to be on the FOMC Minutes coming up. We are looking forward to knowing how unanimous the taper move was. It will be interesting to know how the spread of opinions and reservations around this move were which should give us an idea on what it would take for the FOMC to actually consider upping or slowing the pace of taper.
USD/CHF Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.8945, the 50 DMA is 0.9028 and the 200 DMA is 0.9247. RSI (14) reads 42.2. Supports are ascending from 0.9021, 0.9038, 0.9052, 0.9068. Spot is currently 0.9085 while resistances are 0.9110, 0.9131, 0.9150 and 0.9165.
Jan 08, 2014
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EUR/GBP falls to 1-month lows
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP has extended its decline during the American session to score fresh 1-month lows.
The EUR/GBP extended its decline into a second day Wednesday despite strong Eurozone data and fell to its lowest level in over a month at 0.8254 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair continues to trade at daily lows, recording a 0.5% loss on the day.
EUR/GBP technical levels
In terms of technical levels, the EUR/GBP could find immediate supports at 0.8254 (daily low), 0.8251 (Dec 2 low) and 0.8202 (Jan 11 2013 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 0.8316 (daily high), 0.8332 (Jan 6 high) and 0.8355 (21-day SMA).
Jan 08, 2014
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Canada: New Housing Price Index flat in November
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The New Housing Price Index (NHPI) was unchanged in November following a 0.1% advance in October, Statistics Canada reported Thursday. This reading missed expectations of a 0.1% increase.
On a year-over-year basis, the NHPI rose 1.4% in the 12 months to November. The pace of annual growth in new housing prices has been steadily slowing since August.
Jan 09, 2014
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Draghi: ECB prepared to take further decisive action if needed
FXstreet.com (Łódź) - As expected, the ECB Governing Council decided to keep rates unchanged in January, after reducing the main interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% in November.
During his first press conference of the year, ECB head Mario Draghi reiterated the central bank's forward guidance of keeping interest rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.
The ECB head stated that inflation should remain low in the upcoming months, before gradually returning to the ECB's target level of 2%. Therefore, the monetary policy stance would be kept accommodative for as long as necessary and the central bank would be ready to consider all the available instruments. “Further decisive action” would be taken if needed.
Mario Draghi pointed to the improvement in recent economic indicators suggesting a gradually progressing recovery in the Eurozone. He acknowledged however the high unemployment and weak loan dynamics.
During the Q&A part of the press conference the ECB head signaled that the Governing Council discussed all possible instruments, although he declined to speculate on which specifically could be used.
The ECB would act should a tightening of money markets occur or in case of a weakened inflation outlook, he said.
Jan 09, 2014
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USD/CAD continues bullish momentum
FXstreet.com (London) - USD/CAD continues to climb in advance of tomorrow’s US non-farm payroll statistics and continuing broad USD/CAD momentum.
Canadian housing stabilising
Data released earlier today showed weaker-than-expected Canadian housing stats, which may assuage some concerns over the expansion of Canada’s housing marked.
The report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp showed a drop in the seasonally-adjusted annualised rate of housing starts to 189,672 units in December from an upwardly-revised 197,797 the previous month. The figures fell a little beyond consensus expectations of a 190k and included a 6.7 percent drop in new build permits.
USD/CAD focus now on non-farm payrolls
Focus is now on tomorrow’s US non-farm payroll statistics. Strong ADP numbers earlier this week support another ~200k print adding to expectation of a continuing US recovery.
USD/CAD has gained 2.04 on the week so far, with Canadian inflation expectations drawing down the CAD – inflation is currently running at 0.9 percent, far short of the Bank of Canada’s 2 percent inflation target.
USD/CAD is currently trading at CAD1.0852, up 0.25 percent on the day from an opening price of CAD1.0827.
Jan 09, 2014
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Flash: AUD/USD range bound?
FXstreet.com (London) - Emmanuel Ng said they continue to see the AUD/USD drifting in tandem with global undercurrents pending further cues out of China for example.
Key Quote:
“Expect 0.8900 to remain as a near term locus within the recent 0.8820-0.9000 range”.
Jan 09, 2014
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Flash: AUD/USD range bound?
FXstreet.com (London) - Emmanuel Ng said they continue to see the AUD/USD drifting in tandem with global undercurrents pending further cues out of China for example.
Key Quote:
“Expect 0.8900 to remain as a near term locus within the recent 0.8820-0.9000 range”.
Jan 09, 2014
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Flash: JPY weakness expected by Japanese investors - Nomura
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategist Yujiro Goto comments that he does not judge that the recent slowdown in foreign bond investment suggests Japanese investors have become pessimistic about JPY weakness remaining.
Key Quotes
“In fact, our latest client survey at our seminar in Tokyo suggests that about 80% of Japanese investors expect USD/JPY to trade around 110 or above by end-2014.”
“Expectations for JPY weakness remain strong among Japanese investors, and we expect them to gradually increase foreign bond investment this year.”
“The gradual widening in the yield differential between the US and Japan also encourage them to invest in foreign bonds.”
Jan 10, 2014
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Flash: EUR/USD positioned for healthy Non Farm Payrolls - BMO Capital Markets
Stephen Gallo, European Head of Currency Strategy at BMO Capital Markets feels that in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the market is already modestly positioned for a healthy set of numbers out of the US today.
Key Quotes
“With this in mind, we suspect that there will be a decent amount of ‘pain’ on the topside in both of those pairs, should the report be rather weak.”
“The cautiously ‘dovish’ tone in the latest FOMC minutes should also add weight to the USD in this instance.“
“We think the chances of a weekly close in EUR/USD around 1.3650 are high if this is the case. GBP/USD should just about fully track EUR/USD higher under this scenario, towards 1.6480.”
Jan 10, 2014
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USD/JPY bullish momentum continues ahead of non-farm payrolls






FXstreet.com (London) - USD/JPY continues with its bullish momentum ahead of US non-farm payroll numbers due out later today.


While the non-farm payroll numbers are a key short-term driver of the pair, the biggest directional driver remains the diverging monetary policy expectations between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.


Non-farm payroll optimism


Market consensus is bullish on the non-farm payroll print at 13:30 GMT, with expectations for recent momentum to continue as part of a strengthening US economic outlook. While consensus expectations are at 196k, non-farm Friday exuberance has begun pointing to a higher print. With consensus expectations high, the downside risks are ramped up for any miss.


Longer-term, the bullish momentum trade that has carried the USD/JPY pair since the Fed’s 18 December meeting remains in place. While The Fed is expected to continue to taper its monthly asset purchases – currently standing at USD75bn a month – Japan remains firmly committed to monetary expansion, buying up a current JPY7 trillion of bonds a month. Japanese officials have indicated that they are prepared to increase bond purchases in a fight against deflationary pressures.


Strong print will carry momentum


USD/JPY currently stands at a near-session high of JPY105.0155, up 0.15 percent on the day from an opening of JPY104.8255. Given already optimistic expectations, a strong non-farm payroll print may not be enough to challenge the three-and-a-half year highs recorded last week at JPY105.4415, but it will help maintain bullish USD/JPY momentum.








Jan 10, 2014

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GBP/USD recovers losses following Non Farm Payrolls crash
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - GBP/USD has performed a U-Turn today, recovering its earlier losses following the awful Non Farm Payrolls reading.
GBP/USD retraces decline following Non Farm Payrolls
Having declined sharply to post a low at 1.6379, in the aftermath of soft Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data, GBP/USD has recovered most of its losses following an abysmal Non Farm Payrolls reading which registered at 74k, against expectations of 196k, and 241k (revised) previous. Interestingly however, the US Unemployment rate declined to 6.7% from 7%. Spot is presently trading at 1.6460, close to its daily high at 1.6484.
What are today´s key GBP/USD technicals?
Hourly RSI sits at 53, with ADX at 36. The daily pivot point can be found at 1.6474, with support at 1.6448 (S1) and resistance at 1.6505 (R1). The hourly 200 SMA sits at 1.6463, alongside the daily 20 EMA at 1.6414.
Jan 10, 2014
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US: NIESR GDP Estimate up 0.7% in December
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US NIESR GDP Estimate increased 0.7% in over the 3 months up to December, following a 0.8% rise registered over the 3 months up to November, according to data released today by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Jan 10, 2014
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US: NIESR GDP Estimate up 0.7% in December
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US NIESR GDP Estimate increased 0.7% in over the 3 months up to December, following a 0.8% rise registered over the 3 months up to November, according to data released today by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Jan 10, 2014
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Flash:
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank notes that EUR/USD is in line with current CTFC positioning heading into the week.
Key Quotes
"The EUR/USD pushed higher on Friday in the wake of the disappointing US nonfarm numbers and despite the dovish overtones from the ECB on Thursday."
"Meanwhile, any further positive news flow from the periphery this week may however discourage excessive downside probes."
"In the near term, the 1.3700 resistance may hold while key psychological support at the 55-day MA (1.3614) remains in play."
"Our current view on the pair is also in line with the latest CFTC positioning numbers, with marginal net EUR longs being pared in the latest week."
Jan 13, 2014
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AUD/USD driven by disappointing US data
FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD added to gains in the overnight session. The pair largely ignored Australian housing data and instead continued on the momentum of Friday’s weak US non-farm payroll numbers.
Falling in line with market expectations, November home loans gained 1.1 percent, leaving home loans up 15.3 percent on the year, with the housing sector as a whole extremely bullish on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s loose monetary policy.
Non-farm payrolls driving AUD/USD bullishness
With little to surprise the markets within Australian data, the pair was instead driven by momentum from Friday’s miss in US non-farm payroll data expectations, where just 74k jobs were added in December, after November’s upwardly revised 241k print.
Stevens could play down AUD levels
Currently trading at USD0.9036, up 0.5 percent on the session, the pair is now above the level of 12 December when RBA governor Glenn Stevens talked the AUD down, saying that “85 U.S. cents would be closer to the mark than 95 cents.” With Stevens showing in the past that he is prepared to talk down AUD strength whenever it threatens deflationary pressure, the current >USD0.9000 levels should be watched for a similar move.
Jan 13, 2014
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AUD/USD driven by disappointing US data
FXstreet.com (London) - AUD/USD added to gains in the overnight session. The pair largely ignored Australian housing data and instead continued on the momentum of Friday’s weak US non-farm payroll numbers.
Falling in line with market expectations, November home loans gained 1.1 percent, leaving home loans up 15.3 percent on the year, with the housing sector as a whole extremely bullish on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s loose monetary policy.
Non-farm payrolls driving AUD/USD bullishness
With little to surprise the markets within Australian data, the pair was instead driven by momentum from Friday’s miss in US non-farm payroll data expectations, where just 74k jobs were added in December, after November’s upwardly revised 241k print.
Stevens could play down AUD levels
Currently trading at USD0.9036, up 0.5 percent on the session, the pair is now above the level of 12 December when RBA governor Glenn Stevens talked the AUD down, saying that “85 U.S. cents would be closer to the mark than 95 cents.” With Stevens showing in the past that he is prepared to talk down AUD strength whenever it threatens deflationary pressure, the current >USD0.9000 levels should be watched for a similar move.
Jan 13, 2014
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Flash: Dollar weaker following Non farm Payroll miss - BTMU
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the dollar remained weaker overnight following weak Non Farm Payroll numbers.
Key Quotes
"The US dollar has remained weaker in the Asian trading session following the release of the weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with USD/JPY having fallen to an intra-day low 103.26 today from an intra-day high of 105.40 on Friday."
"The establishment report revealed that the US economy added only 74k jobs in December which was the lowest month of jobs gains since January 2011. There were modest upward revisions to prior months adding a further 38k jobs."
"As a result employment growth averaged 182k/month in 2013 which was almost exactly the same as in 2012. Employment weakness evident in December appears to have been largely driven by the negative impact of seasonably cold and harsh weather. "
"The number of workers who said they could not go to work due to poor weather conditions in the household survey jumped to 273k in December which was the largest amount for a December since 1977. The household survey also revealed a shaper than expected fall in the unemployment rate which declined to 6.681% in December from 6.981% in November. "
"The sharper than expected drop in the unemployment rate mainly resulted from 347k people leaving the labour force while employment increased by 143k as well. The labour force participation rate continued to decline by a further 0.2 point to 62.8%."
Jan 13, 2014
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Flash: Dollar weaker following Non farm Payroll miss - BTMU
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the dollar remained weaker overnight following weak Non Farm Payroll numbers.
Key Quotes
"The US dollar has remained weaker in the Asian trading session following the release of the weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report on Friday, with USD/JPY having fallen to an intra-day low 103.26 today from an intra-day high of 105.40 on Friday."
"The establishment report revealed that the US economy added only 74k jobs in December which was the lowest month of jobs gains since January 2011. There were modest upward revisions to prior months adding a further 38k jobs."
"As a result employment growth averaged 182k/month in 2013 which was almost exactly the same as in 2012. Employment weakness evident in December appears to have been largely driven by the negative impact of seasonably cold and harsh weather. "
"The number of workers who said they could not go to work due to poor weather conditions in the household survey jumped to 273k in December which was the largest amount for a December since 1977. The household survey also revealed a shaper than expected fall in the unemployment rate which declined to 6.681% in December from 6.981% in November. "
"The sharper than expected drop in the unemployment rate mainly resulted from 347k people leaving the labour force while employment increased by 143k as well. The labour force participation rate continued to decline by a further 0.2 point to 62.8%."
Jan 13, 2014
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