OctaFX_Farid Posted May 6, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2013 Forex: USD/CHF Testing Critical Highs 0.9400 FXstreet.com (London) - The Swissie could be posed to break the daily and weekly fib resistance levels at 0.9400 the figure again, which might offer opportunities for the bears in the long term decline of the pair. It has been steadily advancing on the charts from Friday, up from this years lowest levels after a surprise bullish set of NFP came out of the US, while earlier on in the week, of course came negative sentiment out of the Eurozone and mention of negative interest rates from the ECB. USDCHF was last above the 0.9400 the figure in late April from its steep decline of some 255 pips from the April high of 0.9501 to this years, and May 1st lows, 0.9246. As I write, the pair sits idle at 0.9380 with London on holiday today, markets are relatively quiet which most action will have been focused around European data this morning. Resistance on the charts is seen 0.9407 and 0.9441 fib levels where sellers orders may be placed. Sell orders on the downside will target barriers around 9200 the figure for yearly lows of Feb 2013 and May 2012 on the weekly charts. Also worth noting is there being a large shift change in net short positions to CHF reflecting speculation of a potential shift in SNB policy to further dampen the currency. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Canada: Building Permits rose 8.6% MoM in March FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Canadian building permits rose 8.6% on a monthly basis during March, crushing estimates at 0.9% and up from February’s raise of 1.5% (revised). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/JPY aims 99.70/100.00 and then 101.27/67 – Commerzbank FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD/JPY remains sidelined above the 96.99 late April low, but dips lower should find support at 96.71, the March high, and at 95.67, the mid-April low, while key support remains trend and cloud support at 95.40/94.13. “We look for this to hold the downside and provoke recovery, if reached at all that is”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph. Provided this holds the downside, the USD/JPY targets the 99.70/100.00 resistance area (recent high, Fibonacci retracement and psychological resistance): “This resistance zone is being targeted at present but is likely to cap once again, before eventually being breached. Above here will see an extension to 101.27/67 (the 1999 and 2005 lows). This resistance area is expected to hold the initial test”, he added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/JPY aims 99.70/100.00 and then 101.27/67 – Commerzbank FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD/JPY remains sidelined above the 96.99 late April low, but dips lower should find support at 96.71, the March high, and at 95.67, the mid-April low, while key support remains trend and cloud support at 95.40/94.13. “We look for this to hold the downside and provoke recovery, if reached at all that is”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Axel Rudolph. Provided this holds the downside, the USD/JPY targets the 99.70/100.00 resistance area (recent high, Fibonacci retracement and psychological resistance): “This resistance zone is being targeted at present but is likely to cap once again, before eventually being breached. Above here will see an extension to 101.27/67 (the 1999 and 2005 lows). This resistance area is expected to hold the initial test”, he added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 06, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 7, 2013 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Forex Flash: Inflation provides scope for central bank largesse to continue - Societe Generale FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that inflation provides scope for central bank largesse to continue. He begins by noting that with 2yr swap rates edging below 2.8% on Friday, a rate cut in Australia was largely priced in, even if it wasn’t widely expected amongst economists. He adds that that, along with a bounce in copper and some other commodity prices, is why AUD/USD is holding up and it needs to close decisively below 1.02 to make chart-drawers (and me) really happy. He writes, “The RBA was allowed to cut because recent inflation data are low. Away from that, the split between resources/domestic sectors of the economy is not new and growth hasn’t fallen off a cliff. But inflation may even allow further easing.” Juckes sees that the currency is overvalued and supported only by risk-on (SPX), commodities and rates/yields. As two of the three pillars holding it up come down, it is only a matter of time before a return to the mid-90s is seen. Lack of inflation is evident in the UK BRC shop price index too, which fell to 0.4% y/y in April, its lowest level since 2009. He comments that the BRC measure may come in way below the CPI series, but the trends are similar enough that we might get better CPI news in the months ahead. He writes, “Receiving 10yr/10yr GBP vs US still appeals to me, and with the MPC likely to do absolute nothing this week, I don’t see much wrong with short EUR/GBP trades, either. In Europe, yesterday’s dovish comments from Mario Draghi kept the peripheral bond mood buoyant. The sharp contrast between yesterday’s Fed loan officers’ survey and the ECB bank lending survey a couple of weeks ago won’t have any market impact, though EUR shorts and Euro receivers against dollar payers appeal for those with any patience. French industrial production data were weak too (-2.5% y/y, with manufacturing -4.9% y/y). German factory orders are the ‘highlight’; of the economic calendar. The US will watch slightly firmer commodities but after yesterday saw the S&P extend higher, a correction would come as no surprise at all.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/CAD hovering over 1.0050/55 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Canadian dollar is gaining ground against its neighbour on Tuesday, orbiting around the mid 1.0000s as markets remains tilted towards the risk appetite. According to FX Strategists G.Moore and S.Osborne at TD Securities, the recent decline eclipses their bullish perspective on the cross after last week’s rebound from 1.0052. “Just how much more downside potential there is here in a broader sense is not clear though and we still rather think the low/mid 1.0000s will continue to provide support for the USD, ahead of the 200-day MA (0.9989). Ultimately, price action seen over the past few weeks may still be seen as part of a longer-term basing move (we remain long-term USD/CAD bulls)”, concluded the experts. At the moment, the cross is down 0.18% at 1.0049 facing the next support at 1.0017 (61.8% of 0.9815-1.0343) followed by 0.9995 (high Feb.5&7) and finally 0.9971 (low Feb.8). On the flip side, a break above 1.0083 (high May 7) would expose the psychological level at 1.0100 and then 1.0214 (high Apr.26). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: AUD/USD consolidates losses below 1.0200 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Today’s decision by the central bank commanded by G.Stevens to lower the refi rate to 2.75% is still weighting on the Aussie, dragging AUD/USD well below the key mark at 1.0200 around 1.0160/65. Next big event in Australia ahead in the week will be the Unemployment Rate and the Employment Change, expected at 5.6% and 12K, respectively. “Notably the RBA notes the continued strength of AUD - a key issue for the non-resource sector. We look for at least one more 25bp cut from the RBA in H2 and for AUD to head more consistently below parity”, suggested Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst at Danske Bank. The cross is now losing 0.77% at 1.0172 with the next support at 1.0116 (2013 low Mar.4) ahead of 1.0100 (low Jul.12 2012) and then 1.0021 (low Jun.29 2012). On the other hand, a breakout of 1.0221 (low Apr.23) would aim for 1.0245 (hourly highs May 7) and finally 1.0285 (MA10d). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 07, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 9, 2013 Forex: EUR/JPY eyes 132.00 on weaker yen FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Japanese yen now intensifies its depreciation across the board, pushing the cross to the proximities of 132.00, levels last seen in January 2010. In the same tone, the yen is falling below the 100.00 mark against the greenback, lifting the cross to 4-year highs. At the moment the cross is advancing 0.99% at 131.52 with the next resistance at 132.05 (50% of 2008-2012 drop) followed by 132.40 (high Jan. 15 2010) and finally 133.62 (high Jan.14). On the downside, a dip beyond 130.25 (high May 9) would aim for 129.64 (low May 9) and then 129.29 (hourly low May 8). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: EUR/USD extends losses on USD strength FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD continues to be dragged lower by an impressively strong USD, with the shared currency having recently printed a 2-week low. EUR/USD slid below the 200 SMA in 4 hour charts and hit a low of 1.3010 before bouncing slightly. The pair is currently trading around 1.3020, posts a 1.0% loss on the day. Below 1.3000, next support level could be faced at 1.2975 (200-hour SMA). The 1.3110/15 zone should hold bounces for now, followed by 1.3175 (daily high). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: EUR/USD finds support at 1.3005 FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After collapsing around 100 pips from 1.3110 in the latest hour, the EUR/USD has found support at the 1.3005 level, 1-week low. The pair is currently trading at 1.3030, 0.90% down on the day. The pair's decline was "triggered by a strong upward momentum in greenback, as USD/JPY broke above 100.00," points Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com analyst. "Regardless the wild moves across the board, the EUR/USD manages to hold above the base of this past months range, respecting the 1.30/1.32 levels." Support levels are at 1.3010 1.2970 1.2925. Resistances are at 1.3050 1.3080 1.3115 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: EUR/USD finds support at 1.3005 FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After collapsing around 100 pips from 1.3110 in the latest hour, the EUR/USD has found support at the 1.3005 level, 1-week low. The pair is currently trading at 1.3030, 0.90% down on the day. The pair's decline was "triggered by a strong upward momentum in greenback, as USD/JPY broke above 100.00," points Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com analyst. "Regardless the wild moves across the board, the EUR/USD manages to hold above the base of this past months range, respecting the 1.30/1.32 levels." Support levels are at 1.3010 1.2970 1.2925. Resistances are at 1.3050 1.3080 1.3115 OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 09, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 13, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2013 Forex: USD/CAD bounces off 1.0090 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Canadian dollar is now trading in a softer tone against the greenback on Monday, giving away earlier gains on stronger-than-expected US retail sales. “USD/CAD’s short-term rally has stalled in the mid-1.01 zone. Short-term trends appear a little softer, in fact. We think the cap on the USD in the mid 1.01 area may mean some modest corrective moves are in store for the USD in the early part of this week—perhaps back to the 1.0050/60 area”, assessed G.Moore and S.Osborne, FX Strategists at TD Securities. USD/CAD is now losing 0.04% at 1.1010 with the next support at 1.0077 (MA10d) followed by 1.0064 (low May 10) and finally 1.0014 (low May 9). On the flip side a break above 1.0152 (high May 10) would bring 1.0155 (50% of 1.0295-1.0014) and then 1.0156 (MA21d). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 13, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Short-term risk of USD/JPY spike - UBS FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - USD/JPY rose above 100 last week for the first time since April 2009. "Given the decisive break above the psychological 100 level, we see upside risk of USDJPY testing higher levels in the short term", says the UBS analyst team. "However, we still don't see any fundamentals change to support a clear move higher and therefore would like to stick to our current medium term forecast range of 95-100 at this moment". "A higher USDJPY range of 100-110 would require fundamental changes such as further easing by the BoJ, aggressive purchasing of foreign securities by Japan's investors for the portfolio rebalancing, or the Fed explicitly signalling to slow its pace of QE program", UBS adds. "At this stage, we do not expect any of these to occur in the coming months". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 13, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: EUR/USD glued to 1.2970/75 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - After quite a volatile session, the single currency seems to have stabilized in the area of 1.2970/75 at the end of the trading session on Monday against the backdrop of an increasing demand for the safe haven USD. Interesting docket in the euro area on Tuesday, as German, Italian and Spanish consumer prices will be released ahead of 6-m and 12-m auction of Letras in Spain. EMU industrial production will precede the more relevant ZEW Survey in Germany. Across the Atlantic, import and export prices will be in the limelight. As of writing, the cross is up 0.02% at 1.2974 with the next resistance at 1.3051 (high May 10) followed by 1.3075 (MA21d) and then 1.3100 (MA10d). On the flip side, a drop beyond 1.2932 (61.8% of 1.2740-1.3243) would expose 1.2916 (daily cloud base) and finally 1.2850 (76.4% of Apr. range). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 13, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 14, 2013 US markets advance on better US growth prospects, dollar rallies FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Shares in the US markets are extending recent gains, bolstered by the improving confidence amongst investors in the US economic growth. The greenback, gauged by the US Dollar Index, is resuming its upside, trading in session highs in the proximities of 83.60. DowJones is advancing 0.60% followed by the Nasdaq and the S&P500, up 0.68% and 0.86%, respectively. Bourses in Euroland shrugged off the poor results from the German ZEW Survey and edged higher on Tuesday, with indices closing in fresh record highs after a negative start. The FTSE100 was the best performer, advancing 0.82%, followed by the DAX, 0.72% and the CAC40, 0.53%. After hitting intraday highs above 1.3020 overnight, the single currency initiated a correction lower to the current multi-week lows around 1.2930/35, as risk-off trade continues to weight on sentiment. In the commodities realm, both the barrel of WTI and the ounce troy of gold are trading in the negative ground, losing 0.29% at $94.89 and 0.69% at $1,424. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 14, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Fitch upgrades Greece to B- with outlook stable FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Fitch Ratings upgraded Greece sovereign debt from CCC to B- on the back of progress in cutting budget deficit. The country's status is still junk but the outlook is stable according to a Fitch press release. "The Greek economy is rebalancing," states DFitch. "Clear progress has been made towards eliminating twin fiscal and current account deficits and 'internal devaluation' has at last begun to take hold." "The Economic Adjustment Programme (EAP) is on track amid a semblance of political and social stability." The agency adds that "the current account deficit has also shrunk from 10% of GDP in 2011 to 3% in 2012. The revised EU-IMF programme gives Greece two additional years (2015-16) to attain a primary surplus of 4.5% of GDP. This relaxation is reflected in Fitch's expectation of a milder economic contraction of around 4.3% in 2013 (-6.4% in 2012) and a weak recovery in 2014." Fitch says that the outlook stable reflects that the "upside and downside risks to the rating are more broadly balanced than in the recent past." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 14, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: GBP/USD prints fourth daily loss in a row FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The British pound finds no respite as it extends its downward path against the dollar with the 1.5200 psychological level in sight. GBP/USD has fallen further during the American afternoon, hitting its lowest level since Apr 23 at 1.5219 before finding support. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.5220/25 area, recording its fourth daily loss in a row, this time for 0.5%. In terms of technical levels, if the GBP/USD breaks below 1.5220, next supports are seen at 1.5200 (psychological level) and 1.5100. On the upside, resistances could be found at 1.5330 (daily high) and 1.5400 (21-day SMA). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 14, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2013 Forex: EUR/HUF in 3-month lows below 292.00 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Hungarian forint is markedly appreciating against the single currency on Wednesday, after the GDP figures for the first quarter surpassed expectations. In fact, economic activity in Hungary expanded 0.7% inter-quarter vs. the median at 0.2%. Over the last twelve months, the economy contracted 0.9% vs. forecasts at -1.2% and previous print at -2.7%. The renewed strength in the HUF dragged the cross to sub 292.00 levels from the area around 294.60 soon after the release, posting multi-month lows at the same time. At the moment, the cross is losing 0.97% at 291.76 with the next support at 290.25 (low Feb.20) ahead of the psychological mark at 290.00 and then 289.60 (MA200d). On the upside, a break above 295.85 (high May 14) would then target 296.60 (MA100d) en route to 298.20 (high May 7). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2013 Forex Flash: Recovery is in sight to support GBP - UBS FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Following the BoE Inflation Report, Governor Mervyn King started the Inflation Report presentation with "Today's projections are for growth to be a little stronger and inflation a little weaker than we expected three months ago. That is the first time I have been able to say that since before the financial crisis". In this regard, the UBS analyst team comments that this supports their view that the UK is on a gradual recovery path. "It could also mean that King voted against further asset purchases at last week's policy meeting. The minutes next week will give further insights". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2013 US markets posed for further gains on better data FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Better-than-expected data from the US CB Leading Indicator and the consumer sentiment gauged by the U. of Michigan index are bolstering today’s upside in the US equities, heading towards its fourth consecutive week of gains. The greenback, measured by the US Dollar Index, is testing intraday highs in the vicinity of 84.35/40 and closing the week with strong gains. DowJones is up 0.34%, following by the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, advancing 0.46% and 0.45%, respectively. Bourses in Euroland climbed to multi-year highs on Friday, propped up by the upbeat US data, allaying concerns about the US recovery. The CAC40 advanced 0.56%, seconded by the FTSE100, 0.53% and the IBEX35, 0.47%. Another volatile session for the single currency, navigating around the area of 1.2830/35 after dipping to session lows in sub 1.2800 levels. The ongoing USD rally has been punishing the EUR throughout the week, dragging the cross from Monday’s tops around 1.3030. In the commodities’ front, the selling pressure continues to hammer the ounce of gold, down 1.67% at $1,364 while the barrel of WTI is up 0.67% at $95.80. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 17, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 20, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 20, 2013 EUR/GBP turns flat on the day FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After failing to overcome the 0.8470 area, the euro weakened versus the pound and slipped to fresh daily lows at the beginning of the NY session. EUR/GBP turned negative for the day and printed a low of 0.8444 before finding support. At time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8450, virtually unchanged since opening. In terms of technical levels, on the downside next supports might be found at 0.8420 (low May 16) and 0.8400 (psychological level), while on the upside, resistances are seen at 0.8470 (daily highs) and 0.8499/0.8500 (high May 15/psychological level). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 20, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD in highs around 1.2875/80 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is now picking up pace vs. the greenback, climbing to the area of 1.2875/80 to test session highs. “A confluence of fundamental and technical signals suggests that downside risks are mounting for EUR/USD once again. Modest strength in EUR/USD looks a sell from here while a clear drop below the 1.28 area should see the EUR slide picks up momentum”, suggested the analysts at TD Securities. The pair is advancing 0.26% at 1.2877, and a break above 1.2890 (high May 17) would expose 1.2930 (high May 16) ahead of 1.2943 (high May 15). On the flip side, support levels align at 1.2796 (low May 17) followed by 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.4) and finally the psychological mark at 1.2700. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 20, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD in highs around 1.2875/80 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is now picking up pace vs. the greenback, climbing to the area of 1.2875/80 to test session highs. “A confluence of fundamental and technical signals suggests that downside risks are mounting for EUR/USD once again. Modest strength in EUR/USD looks a sell from here while a clear drop below the 1.28 area should see the EUR slide picks up momentum”, suggested the analysts at TD Securities. The pair is advancing 0.26% at 1.2877, and a break above 1.2890 (high May 17) would expose 1.2930 (high May 16) ahead of 1.2943 (high May 15). On the flip side, support levels align at 1.2796 (low May 17) followed by 1.2740 (2013 low Apr.4) and finally the psychological mark at 1.2700. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 20, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 21, 2013 US: Redbook Index rose 0.5% MoM FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Redbook index rose 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.4% YoY in the week ended on May 12, vs. previous prints at 0.7% and 2.8%, respectively. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: USD profit taking ahead of Bernanke tomorrow - Societe Generale FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Alvin T. Tan, FX Strategist at Societe Generale notes that the market is taking profit on USD longs ahead of Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony tomorrow. He adds that investors are hoping to get clarity from the Fed after hearing different views from various FOMC members in recent weeks. Further, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Evans stated last night that current Fed policy was appropriate, though noting that the economy appeared to be recovering well. He writes, “We doubt Bernanke will promulgate any major policy changes tomorrow. The recent slew of US economic data has been somewhat mixed, so the Fed is not going to change tune right now. But Bernanke will likely acknowledge the signs of improvement in the economy.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 21, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 US: MBA Mortgage Applications fell 9.8% FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Mortgage Bankers Association has informed that US citizens that applied for mortgage loans dropped 9.8% in the week ended on May 17, extending the negative momentum from the previous contraction of 7.3%. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates IMF urges UK to increase efforts to spur growth FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The International Monetary Fund released a report on the UK economy on Wednesday in which it suggests that the country should introduce new measures to boost growth and speed up the slow recovery. The Eurozone crisis was cited as the main threat: „Despite recent market calm, growth in the euro area is likely to be weak, and the re-emergence of market tensions cannot be ruled out, with the potential for continued spillovers to the UK from depressed exports, higher bank losses and funding costs.” Therefore, the IMF recommends that the UK government takes several steps to boost growth, namely carry out planned capital investment, taking advantage of the low borrowing costs, change the composition of consolidation and introduce measures aimed at stimulating activity in the housing market. IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton, who gave a press conference in London following the release of the report, also urged the UK government to increase its efforts to boost growth and suggested that the BoE should maintain interest rates low for as long as necessary. “On a range of areas, the government should be more supportive than it has been or it plans to be.... and this effort should start now...” he said. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: EUR/USD obstructed by bearish headwinds – UBS FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses and note that there is a generally neutral-trending bias ahead. Any upside for the EUR/USD will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662. In terms of the EUR/CHF, With bullish trend in place, there is no major resistance until the critical 1.2569. Support is at 1.2451, suggesting a bullish intraday view. Moving to the EUR/GBP, “The sharp recovery since yesterday is approaching critical resistance at 0.8546. A break above which would prolong the recovery to 0.8590 – support is at 0.8441, ahead of 0.8389. Finally, concerning the EUR/JPY, the cross is trading within striking distance of first resistance at 132.77; a break above this would open 134.38 ahead of the more critical 138.49. Support is at 130.99 ahead of 129.92. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 Wall Street closes lower on QE tapering concerns FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US stocks market closed negative on Wednesday as investors were concerned on Fed tapering QE. Bernanke's speech and FOMC minutes leave the sensation that the board is divided about what to do on bond buying. Wall Street finished the day into solid losses after retracing from fresh all time highs. The Dow Jones declined 80.41 points or 0.52% to end the day at 15,307.17. The S&P 500 eased 13.81 points or 0.83% 1,655.35. And the Nasdaq Composite fell 38.82 points or 1.11% to 3,463.30. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 22, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 US Apr Housing Price Index (MoM) rises 1.3% vs 0.9% (Mar) Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: Markets seize hawkish tone after FOMC – Deutsche Bank FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The FOMC minutes that came later was also viewed to be less dovish than the Fed commentary we've seen recently as the minutes noted that "a number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently stronger and sustained growth". Markets clearly seized upon the hawkish tone from yesterday's Fed headlines even though the Chairman himself at the Q&A session made it clear that a step to reduce the flow of purchases will not be an automatic mechanistic process of ending the program but rather that any change in the flow of purchases would depend on incoming data and Fed's assessment of the outlook. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Whilst a slowing of QE is possible in a few months we can't help to think that the Fed could be forced to restart its QE in a beggar-thy-neighbor environment where central banks in most part of the developed world are still largely on an easing bias in order to steel a share of the global GDP. We think QE or derivations thereof will be around for many years to come.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: Markets seize hawkish tone after FOMC – Deutsche Bank FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The FOMC minutes that came later was also viewed to be less dovish than the Fed commentary we've seen recently as the minutes noted that "a number of participants expressed willingness to adjust the flow of purchases downward as early as the June meeting if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently stronger and sustained growth". Markets clearly seized upon the hawkish tone from yesterday's Fed headlines even though the Chairman himself at the Q&A session made it clear that a step to reduce the flow of purchases will not be an automatic mechanistic process of ending the program but rather that any change in the flow of purchases would depend on incoming data and Fed's assessment of the outlook. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “Whilst a slowing of QE is possible in a few months we can't help to think that the Fed could be forced to restart its QE in a beggar-thy-neighbor environment where central banks in most part of the developed world are still largely on an easing bias in order to steel a share of the global GDP. We think QE or derivations thereof will be around for many years to come.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates American equity markets follow world indices lower FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US stock market was spared a gruesome opening, unlike its Asian and European counterparts Thursday. While losses were sizable, the news was somewhat mitigated after upbeat US economic data. In the United States, Initial Jobless Claims (May 17) came in at 340K, against expectations of 345K, and compared with 360K. In addition, Continuing Jobless Claims (May 11) were reported at 2.912M, beating a projection of 3.000M. Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ fell -0.97% as it settles in region of 3429.82, down -33.97 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in negative territory, operating at 1635.59, descending -18.72 points or -1.15% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has edged lower at the opening, trading in the zone of 15298.65, presently -0.06% after a movement of -8.52 points. Sectors are nearly all lower at the opening, however the Consumer Cyclical and Financial sectors have distinguished themselves as the winners thus far, contracting -2.66% and -1.49% respectively. In other news, the price of crude is testing USD $92.42/bbl Thursday. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 23, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 GBP/USD muted on Durable Goods orders higher than expectations but not good enough. FXstreet.com (London) - Durable goods came in at 3.3% against consensus 1.5%. However, these numbers are not as good as the headline prints on average and GDP may be marked down on such results. The pair have been oscillating around the 1.5100 figure in a 40 pip range throughout the morning session in London. Before the data, the pair are trading at the low testing 1.5080 support and didn’t react much at all on the data’s official release to the market. On the charts, the pair are still trading below the 61.8% correction and were resisted at 1.5130 and the possibility of extending the bearish move is valid today, with daily MA’s and momentum indicating a move to the downside. On the otherhand, a break above 1.5130 , breaking the resistace line and a seriies of higher lows could keep the pair bid above 1.5100 for the time being. Next resistance is 1.5170. Near term support is at the pivot point 1.5080 before 1.5035 and key plays out at 1.4995. 1.4830 (March 2013 and 2009 Low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 24, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: EUR/GBP said 0.8591 was on the card - Commerzbank FXstreet.com (London) - EUR/GBP had advanced to the figure 0.8600 in London trade. Commerzbank had expected this move and should there be a retest of this level with a daily close above above 0.8637 be made, their medium term forecast will change from neutral to bullish with the 0.8716 early February high being back on the map. Adding, only unexpected failure at the 0.8422 mid-May low will be bearish and target the 2013 support line at 0.8380 and the 2012-13 support line at 0.8336. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 24, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates American equity markets cap off two-day weakness FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US stock market again opened lower Friday, concluding a late week weakness across global equities. In the United States, Durable Goods Orders (April) grew +3.3%, against projections of just +1.5%, and compared with -6.9% previously. In addition, Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (April) were reported at +1.3%, against expectations of +0.5%. Beginning with the indices and composites, the NASDAQ fell -0.44% as it settles in region of 3444.45, down -15.18 points in these moments. In addition, the S&P 500 is trading in negative territory, operating at 1643.24, descending -7.15 points or -0.43% at the time of writing. Finally, the Dow Jones has edged lower at the opening, trading in the zone of 15256.03, presently -0.25% after a movement of -38.47 points. Sectors are nearly all lower at the opening, however the Consumer Cyclical and Basic Materials sectors have distinguished themselves as the losers thus far, contracting -1.67% and -0.77% respectively. In other news, the price of crude is testing USD $93.11/bbl Friday. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 24, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 28, 2013 Flash: BoJ appear unperturbed by rising JGB yields - BTMU FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX Analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that BoJ Board member Miyao also spoke overnight and didn’t appear overly concerned by rising JGB yields which have been driven by “higher yields in the US” and “domestic stock market gains”. He continues to note that yields will face both upward and downward pressure going forward with BoJ easing to put downward pressure upon yields in Miyao’s opinion. Further, the BoJ will continue to monitor bond market developments carefully. Hardman believes that the weaker yen has helped to raise the value of Japan’s net foreign assets by 11.6% to JPY296.3 trillion in 2012, the largest annual increase since 2009. Additionally, he adds that Japan’s net portfolio investment and direct investment positions increased by JPY19.8 trillion and JPY15.3 trillion in 2012. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 28, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: UK CPI to rise in time - Merrill Lynch and Bank of America FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at Merrill Lynch and Bank of America said that overall, they think there are various reasons to think that the unexpected weakness in UK CPI inflation in April will not persist over the medium term. They continue to expect it to pick up to around 3% over the next few months; in part, as upward pressures from the depreciation in Sterling at the start of the year feed through More generally, after the BoE’s 6-3 vote again to leave QE on hold in May, it would seem prudent for them to wait and see if any potential Easter effects reverse again in May, before considering whether the recent CPI data might suggest a weaker medium-term inflation outlook compared with their May Inflation Report projections. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 28, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: Is the ECB Going to Adopt a Negative Deposit Rate? - BBH FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts note that ECB President Draghi raised the possibility of a negative deposit rate at the ECB meeting earlier this month. They feel that if the goal is to help revive lending, especially to small and medium sized business and improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, then they expect a serious analysis to highlight the risks and downplay the likely benefits. That said, they write, “As ECB President Draghi has surprised many observers with his boldness (such as unwinding both to Trichet's rate hikes in his first two meetings) and his ability to innovate (two LTROs and the OMT).” At the same time, they note that OMT has worked by brandishing it, not actually deploying it and the dramatic success that moral suasion was not lost on Draghi. They write, “We suggest the negative deposit rate is more like the OMT than the LTRO.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 28, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2013 GBP/JPY extending losses FXstreet.com (London) - The pound is continuing to be prodded with the ugly stick and wasn’t able to hold onto yesterdays performance to the crosses 154.60 high. From the bear’s perspective, GBP/JPY is heading towards 152.00. The pair is testing 153.20 resistance in an overall broad bearish trend from the lows of 152.40. Momentum indicators offer impetus for the bears with hourly MA’s signalling towards lower levels. The dollar crosses are testing 1.5000 in Sterling and has completed an ascending triangle pattern in the Yen, neither look too well for the cross. In a dollar positive environment, it appears that the pound is suffering with a backdrop of poor sentiment for the economy. With a light calendar for the rest of this week, support is 152.70 and 152.00 and 154.60 as resistance. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2013 EU extends budget deficit reduction targets for six Member States FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to the economic guidelines for the 27 EU Member States, published by the European Commission on Wednesday, more emphasis should be put on measures aimed at spurring growth in the area, rather than on austerity. “Now is the time to step up the fundamental economic reforms that will deliver growth and jobs, which our citizens, especially our young people, anxiously expect,” European Commission president José Manuel Barroso said at a press conference following the release of the national budgets review. “This is the only way to address the two lasting legacies of this crisis – the serious loss of competitiveness in many of our Member States, and persistent unemployment, with all its social consequences.” Brussels announced that six EU countries had been granted more time to bring down their budget deficits below the 3% of GDP limit. France, Spain, Poland, Slovenia will have two more years for implementing structural reforms while the Netherlands and Portugal were given one extra year. At the press conference José Manuel Barroso said that France is expected to use the additional time to realize labor and pension reforms and deal with its economic competitiveness problems. On the other hand, the European Commission recognized Italy's success in reducing its deficit below the 3% limit and eliminated it from the list of EU countries under the 'excessive deficit procedure' together with Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania. Barroso stressed however that the country should continue carrying out its austerity program, as its national debt still exceeds 120% of GDP. EU leaders are expected to give the green light to the recommendations during the June summit. Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at BBH comments on European Commissions decisions: “Barroso wants countries to use the 'grace period' to take the structural reforms necessary to boost competitiveness. This of course is easier said than done. What needs to be done seems clear. We think that World Bank's Doing Business studies offer insight into low hanging fruit to bolster entrepreneurial activity, from easing the procedures and costs to start a business, register property, through closing businesses. The problem, at the risk of over simplifying, political in nature--the balance of power between rent seekers and profit-seekers.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Flash: BoJ fails to create waves – Deutsche Bank FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In Japan, 10yr JGB yields are up 4bp as they edge closer to the 1% mark – Kuroda's speech at a BoJ conference had little effect on markets with the Governor's key message being that no financial system is perfect in the face of global uncertainty. In other BoJ-related headlines, there were some interesting comments PM Abe's economic adviser, Koichi Hamada, who was quoted as saying that Korea "shouldn't blame" the Japanese central bank if Korean growth slows due a weaker yen, but instead "they should demand the Korean central bank have a proper monetary policy". Hamada also urged Kuroda to ease monetary policy further should it be needed. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “The news comes as PM Abe unveiled a 5yr plan that details a number of structural reforms to achieve growth, but the issue of corporate tax rate cuts is reportedly undecided at this stage.” Attention then shifted to the BoJ's meeting with JGB-market participants later today, which may provided more detail on the central bank's upcoming market operations. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 30, 2013 EUR/USD edges higher as US data disappoints FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - EUR/USD bounced from session lows and spiked to the 1.2980 area after data showed US GDP was revised slightly lower to 2.4% from 2.5% in Q1, while jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 354K last week. Soft growth and employment data undermined expectations that the Fed could begin to taper its bond buying program and weighed on the greenback, which was staging a mild comeback ahead of the data. EUR/USD rose nearly 30 pips within the last minutes, but has been capped by 1.2980 so far. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.2970 zone, where it is still up 0.2% on the day. On the upside, immediate resistances are seen at 1.3000 (psychological level) and 1.3020 (200-day SMA), while supports are seen at 1.2930/20 (daily lows/100-hour SMA) and 1.2880 (May 28 low). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 30, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates EU to lower the tax on financial transactions FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Reuters, the EU is considering considerably scaling back the financial transactions tax, in the light of the banking sector's and the UK's firm opposition towards the measure. European officials plan to impose a small levy of 0.01% (compared with the previous proposition of 0.1%) initially only on share transactions. After assessing the first impact of the FTT it will be decided whether other types of products should be taxed as well. Under the current proposition, the EU would raise only up to 3.5 billion euros a year, instead of 35 billion euros, as initially planned. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 30, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/JPY testing higher FXstreet.com (London) - The EUR/JPY has rocketed from 130.20 to test 132.00 throughout the European day. The EUR/USD has drifted higher nicely while the Yen has also gained some 180 pips on the day, moving well away from the 100.00 mark which was anticipated from overnight moves lower. EUR/JPY is still some way off from the top side of the previous ascending trend line and downside risk applies with closes below 131.60 and 132.50 resistance lines set up last week as a double top before the break of the supporting line. The majority of the market is not expecting the ECB to follow through with the mentions of negative interest rates, for now. Meanwhile, Japanese officials speaking of late have had little calming effect on JGB or equity markets. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 30, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2013 Flash: EUR/USD holds bearish bias – BTMU FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts expect EUR/USD to hold a bearish bias ahead and range between 1.2850 and 1.3200. They begin by noting that they expect the euro to weaken modestly in the week ahead with EUR/USD increasingly struggling to trade above the 1.30-level. They see that the euro is being undermined against the US dollar by rising real yields in the US supported by heightened investor expectations that the Fed may taper QE in the coming months. Further, the release of the non-farm payrolls report for May will prove crucial for near-term dollar direction. They add that unless the report reveals that employment growth has weakened materially, the US dollar should continue to trade on a firmer footing. US dollar direction will also be impacted by the release of the latest PCE deflator report for May. Overall, they feel that a weaker US dollar could result if disinflationary pressures exceed expectations pushing back Fed QE tapering expectations. They finish by commenting that, "The main event for euro direction will be the upcoming ECB meeting. We expect the ECB to leave monetary policy unchanged although it remains a close call. With President Draghi likely to maintain an easing bias, an unchanged policy stance will likely still weigh modestly upon the euro. Any signal that the ECB is moving closer to implementing negative deposit rates would weigh more heavily." OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 31, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates USD/JPY crumbles to 100.31/34 after personal spending in US FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The USD/JPY has weakened Friday, as the mounting pressures against the USD continue during US trading. Following a break below the 100.54 support, Mataf.net analysts identify the next short-term supports at 99.83, ahead of 99.2. On the ascension, short-term resistances for the USD/JPY at 101.88, then 102.51, and finally 103.22 In the United States, Personal Spending (April) fell -0.2%, against expectations of +0.1%. In addition, Core Personal Consumption Expenditure – Price Index (YoY) climbed +1.1% in April, vs. projections of +1.0%. Finally, Personal Income (MoM) was reported at 0.0% in April, against estimates of +0.1%. At the time of writing, the pair is operating at 100.31/34, notching a sizable decline of -0.39% Friday. According to the Technical Analyst team at ICN.com, “The USD/JPY’s attempt to the upside yesterday remained limited below 102.00 bringing negativity back, and today we find the possibility of extending the intraday downside move valid especially that the pair is trading below 101.70. Breaching 102.00 still represent a catalyst failing the intraday negative expectations.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 31, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates EUR/USD keeps 1.3000 after US PCE FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The euro remained apathetic after the US inflation figures, in terms of the PCE, came in below market forecasts during April. In fact, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures posted an annualized increment of 1.1%, a tad higher than the median, while the rest of the readings came in below forecasts. The headline advanced 0.7% on a yearly basis and contracted 0.3% inter-month. Further data showed that Personal Income came in flat while Personal Spending contracted 0.3% during the same period. The pair is now losing 0.37% at 1.3001 and a violation of 1.2965 (MA21d) would target 1.2934 (low May 30) en route to 1.2931 (MA10d). On the other hand, resistance levels line up at 1.3062 (high May 30) ahead of 1.3072 (61.8% of 1.3243-1.2796) and then 1.3114 (MA100d). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 31, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted June 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2013 Flash: USD/CHF could extend correction with push below 0.9527 – UBS FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions. Beginning with the USD/JPY, the potential is for extension of the correction phase. The next important support is at 99.58 ahead of 97.02. Resistance is at 101.80 ahead of 103.74, suggesting a neutral outlook. As for the GBP/USD, “There is a major resistance at 1.5308. As long as this holds, the pair is vulnerable as bearish conditions prevail and a break below 1.5111 would expose 1.5009, suggesting a bearish near-term outlook.” Finally, regarding the USD/CHF, with bull trend in place, the recent downside move should be limited in time and extent, which has tested support at 0.9527. A closing break below would prolong the correction to 0.9431. Resistance is at 0.9651 ahead of 0.9791. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Jun 3, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates US sells $30 Bn of 3-month bills at 0.045% Read more in Forex News OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Jun 3, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates AUD/USD soars, reaches pass 0.9760 FXstreet.com (Buenos Aires) – Aussie extended its advance to a fresh 2-week high above 0.9760, having been positive since early weekly opening, favored by positive Chinese data released past Saturday. Having been grinding higher for most of the European session, US disappointing data and the promise of a lively future for QE, gave the pair a reason to recover ground, after being steadily bearish for over the past 3 weeks. While short term technical readings suggest now an upward continuation, the pair has not yet filled the weekly opening gap around 0.9570. Immediate resistance comes at 0.9777, May 23rd daily high, followed by 0.9820 price zone, 20 DMA. Supports are at 0.9710, May 17th daily low, followed by strong static 0.9660 level. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Jun 3, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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