OctaFX_Farid Posted April 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2013 Forex: AUD/USD dips to lows around 1.0530 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Aussie dollar is printing fresh intraday lows in the boundaries of 1.0530 on Friday, as risk version is now reining in the markets. “Current AUD levels still leave the currency above where we were in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s weak local employment data (1.0510) with the slightly heightened prospects of the RBA coming back to the easing table doing no real harm at this stage”, commented analysts at NAB. At the moment, the cross is down 0.12% at 1.0532 with the immediate support at 1.0524 (broken trendline) followed by 1.0515 (hourly high/lows Apr.11) and finally 1.0500 (low Apr.11). On the upside, a breakout of 1.0583 (high Apr.11) would aim for 1.0599 (high Jan.10) ahead of 1.0625 (high Mar.20). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 12, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 15, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 15, 2013 Forex: EUR/GBP upside capped by 0.8550 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The pair is posting marginal losses on Monday, trading around 0.8545/50 although failing to break above 0.8550 so far. Both the single currency and the sterling are suffering the increasing selling interest in the risk-related assets since Chinese GDP figures during the first quarter have disappointed investors this early morning. “The market remains upside corrective and we look for the near term rebound from the .8417 low to test the 55 day ma at .8583. There is scope for a move to the top of its cloud at .8646 currently, where we look for the up move to falter”, commented Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.04% at 0.8544 with the next support at 0.8512 (MA10d) followed by 0.8495 (low Apr.12) and finally 0.8464 (low Apr.8). On the flip side, a breakout of 0.8560 (high Apr.10) would aim for 0.8565 (high Mar.25) and then 0.8570 (high Mar.21). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates US markets retreat on China, gold increases the sell-off FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Shares in the US markets are submerged into the red territory on Monday, following the sharp sell-off in the gold market and the disappointing data from the Chinese GDP during the first quarter, growing 7.7% on a yearly basis vs. 8.0% expected. The US Dollar Index is posting marginal gains in the area of 82.40/45, as markets are slightly biased towards safer assets. DowJones is losing 1.06%, followed by the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, down 1.39% and 1.57%, respectively. Bourses in Euroland closed in a ‘sea of red’ on Chinese data. In addition, the wave of selling orders in the precious metal took a toll on the miners, dragging the indices lower. The FTSE100 led the losers, falling 0.64%, followed by the CAC40, 0.50% and the DAX, 0.41%. The single currency keeps the 1.3070/1.3100 range on Monday, with China as the leitmotif and proving unable to break above the 1.3110/15 area. In the commodities realm, the precious metal is tanking 8.41% at $1,375 and the barrel of WTI is following suit, retreating 2.66% at $88.86. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: EUR/USD remains trapped in a range FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro continues to trade within today's range against the dollar, consolidating above 1.3050 and holding up pretty well despite broad risk aversion. EUR/USD started the week above 1.3100, but slowly retreated throughout the day before finding support at 1.3051 during the European session but with the subsequent bounce being capped by 1.3107, the cross was confined to a tighter range. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.3070, where it is 0.3% below its opening price. From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that technical readings hold a neutral stance in 4-hour chart, and points out that as long as EUR/USD ranges within 1.3040/1.3120 it will remain trendless. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 15, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2013 European Commission intends to advance Cyprus structural payments FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Recently in a letter to Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, President of the European Commission Barroso has extended monetary assistance in advancing the future of the EU budget to Cyprus. In particular, the European Commission – through the letter to Barroso – has proposed an advance payment of the proposed budget for Cyprus for 2014-2020 in effect aiming to ease the island's economy. Barroso also offered more competitive rates than before the turmoil, and could increase the amount of funds provided to the island over the next seven years, which are now estimated at 945 million euros. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 16, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/JPY still failing at 98.00 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The market retracement seen during the Asian and European session after the drop to 95.83 low failed to extend above the 98.00 handle as it peaked at 98.01 high and has been quoting just below that area despite several attempts. The economic calendar will provide an interesting load of data from the US, including the CPI report, Housing Starts and Industrial Production. “We expect headline CPI to rise by +0.1%/mth, following the chunky +0.7% rise the month before. On an annual basis, favorable base effects lower the rate from 2.0% to 1.7%/yr (mkt 1.6%)”, wrote TD Securities analyst Annette Beacher, expecting also a relatively subdued Core CPI, at +0.2%/mth and 1.7%/yr (mkt 2.0%). According to Fxbriefs.com analyst Peter Jackson, Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser said he would be uncomfortable saying the Fed won’t engage in asset sales, but he would like to see it happen in an eventual exit from the current Fed stimulus program and the central bank should return to use Fed funds rate as the policy instrument. Also, he wishes to shrink the balance sheet as well as short the duration of our portfolio in all treasuries. “Hourly indicators are pointing higher, though still in the negative zone, as 55 day EMA caps the upside, while 4h indicators hold negative tone so far does not give much upside potential, unless the price clearly breaks above 98.00/30 barriers that may ease still existing bear-pressure”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to resistance at 97.89, 98.25 and 98.70, while supports are at 97.27. 97.00 and 96.60. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 16, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: CBRT surprises with wider rate cut than expected, by 50bp to 5% - TD Securities FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - TD Securities analysts reported the widely expected repo rate cut by the CBRT decided at their April 16th meeting. “They cut 50bp to 5.00% instead that 25bp we and the consensus had expected. The CBRT also slashed the overnight rate corridor (both lending and borrowing rates) by 50bp, in line with our forecast (consensus looked for -25bp on the lending rate and -50bp for the borrowing rate)”, wrote analyst Cristian Maggio, considering it a strong message to the market that short-term rates should be lower, hence the lira weaker. “The market was positioned for a dovish outcome, but the combined CBRT measures came in even more loose than expected”, continued Maggio, adding that the CBRT also decided to withdraw additional liquidity by increasing the ROCs by 0.2 on all tranches but the first one of FX reserves commercial banks hold at the CBRT. “The effect should be $1.4bn of liquidity drained from the market”, he concluded. In regard to the FX market, the USD/TRY had a kneejerk spike to 1.7986, but as the pair failed to break the psychological level of 1.80, it is now retracing at the pre-announcement levels. “However, we continue to consider the lira as rich against USD and EUR at these levels. Surprisingly enough, the TRY REER moved below 120 to 119.58 after the CBRT’s announcement”, wrote the TD Securities analyst. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 16, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/CHF falls back to weekly lows FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After being rejected by the 0.9325 area, USD/CHF resumed the downside and retested this week's lows, although the Swissy lacked strength enough to drag the cross below the 0.9260/65 support zone. USD/CHF has been seesawing within the 0.9265/0.9340 range over the last days, unable to set fresh direction. Having hit a daily low at 0.9265, roughly the same level than yesterday, the pair is currently trading around 0.9270/75, still 0.4% below its opening price. As for technical levels, the Mataf.net analyst team locates immediate supports at 0.9265, 0.9240 and 0.9200, while they see resistances at 0.9290, 0.9330 and 0.9365. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 16, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 16, 2013 Forex Flash: Fed locked in to current strategy despite US economy – UBS FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Q3 policy-driven price action in gold brings us to an interesting point. Since Q4, the Fed's balance sheet has been expanding again but gold has not responded in the usual 'debasement' manner. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “Initially, this was attributed to better US data and stable inflation expectations (or easing disinflationary pressures). Such factors are indeed negative for gold and a stronger dollar is a part of this (self-fulfilling) process.” The first week of April witnessed a massive dose of (potential) liquidity provision from the Bank of Japan, while weakening data out of the US is also pointing to shifts in policy expectations again for the Fed. In addition, if emerging markets are indeed weakening, then stimulus either through rates or outright quantitative policy (such as FX-intervention) can be expected. All of these factors should have proven to be positive for the yellow metal. Again, points to other factors at play such as positioning. “However, if we look at the broader policy picture, then perhaps the move in the gold price is telling markets something far more pernicious: Central Bank activism has failed. Simply put, even if the US' economy is weakening further, it is hard to see what the Fed can do beyond their current actions.” Berry adds. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 16, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2013 Forex Flash: In Canada, no change is expected - Societe Generale FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Sebastien Galy, Senior FX Strategist at Societe Generale notes that in Canada, no change is expected and the MPR will be released. He sees that the market is already short CAD, leaving is asymmetrically exposed to the event. Nonetheless, in a risk off environment, the temptation will be for USD/CAD to drift toward 1.03. He writes, “We like CAD as a proxy for the US recovery in the medium term and I will again be spending more time on that one (if you remember the Maple Leaf monthly from olden days). US Beige book is at 2PM.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 17, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: USD/CAD risk comes in the BoC outlook – TD Securities FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In regard to the BoC policy meeting of today, being one of Governor Carney’s last major policy decisions before he leaves for the BoE, TD Securities analysts expect much attention given to the event. “The overnight rate will remain at 1.00% and the statement will continue to reflect a very mild tightening bias, it is widely expected”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, adding that “the risk for the CAD comes in the messaging on the outlook, however, with the BoC likely to moderate further its message on the economy considering the weak growth trend evident in the domestic economy so far this year”. In terms of USD/CAD trading, TD Securities analysts note that the market has struggled in the mid/upper 1.02 area so far this week but a clear push through 1.0250/60 intraday should be enough to signal an extension of this move up chart-wise. “The USD/CAD has been consolidating since the early March peak and this week’s push through resistance in the 1.02 are should signal the start of the next trending leg higher (we think 1.06 is reachable by mid-year)”, they concluded. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 17, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2013 Forex Flash: BOJ plan not significantly more aggressive than Fed’s QE - Nomura FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Richard Koo, Chief economist at the Nomura Research Institute notes that the BoJ plan is not significantly more aggressive than the Fed´s QE and using this concept of the statutory reserve deposit multiple, the BOJ’s new policy would lift potential growth in the money supply, and therefore inflation—from 4.8x to 18.7x. He adds that the latter number is much higher than the corresponding figures of 9.7x for the UK or 3.8x for the eurozone, but is roughly equal to the US multiple of 16.0x and somewhat less than the 21.6x peak there. In that sense, the BOJ’s easing program can be viewed as an attempt to catch up with (and overtake) the Fed on the easing front. He writes, “Estimates based on the quantitative easing schedule provided by the BOJ suggest that Japan’s monetary base (as a multiple of statutory reserves) will overtake the UK sometime this autumn and pass the US next summer.” OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 17, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2013 Forex Flash: AUD/USD strategy profile – Westpac FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - There is little to distract markets ahead of Wednesday’s Q1 CPI, which we see at a muted 0.5% q/q average core, no barrier to RBA easing whenever they believe demand needs a boost. Markets are closed Thursday for ANZAC Day. Gold isn’t going to drop 9% every day, as it did on Monday the day that produced the bulk of AUD/USD decline in the past week. However, China’s GDP report was flat out disappointing and weakness in base metals, most notably copper, is hardly encouraging. Fair value estimates have slid into the mid- 0.90s. “With spec positioning still puzzlingly long last week and pricing for RBA easing returning to -40bp, AUD/USD should test the 1.0200 area in the week ahead, which is now also our one month target.” suggests Global FX Strategist at Westpac. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 18, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 19, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2013 Forex: USD/MXN in lows around 12.2200/50 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Mexican peso is gaining ground against the greenback on Friday, despite the unemployment rate in the Aztec economy ticked higher in March to 5.01% from 4.76%. The bias continues to favour the riskier assets today, giving extra support to the MXN. As of writing, the cross is down 0.48% at 12.2146 with the next support at 12.1640 (low Apr.18) followed by 12.1467 (MA200h) and finally 12.0085 (weekly low Aug.14 2011). On the upside, a break above 12.2590 (MA21d) would bring 12.3350 (high Apr.18) and then 12.3523 (high Apr.3). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 19, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2013 Commodities Brief – Precious metals held by key resistances, crude fortified above 88.00 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The yellow metal was rebuffed by the 1428 resistance Tuesday, unable to achieve prolonged stability above this key upside mark. Having failed to summit this level, the price has fallen lower, trading negatively during US trading. With a bearish engulfing now present for gold, the price has settled currently at USD $1418.26 per oz. A retest or breach of the 1428 level will ultimately cancel the bearish outlook. Silver cannot scale 23.00 Silver has faced headwinds ever since this mornings Chinese PMI printed lackluster results. Having unsuccessfully held above the 23.70 resistance, the white metal has now surrendered its grip on the 23.00 level. During US trading, silver spot prices were negotiating a price of just USD $22.93. A close above the 23.00 level will ultimately help lend stability to the embattled metal. Crude holds above 88.00 The movement up to the 89.00 level topped out near the 88.74 figure, subsequently driving the price of WTI crude oil lower. While a bullish correction could ultimately transpire, the immediate price action appears to be negative, with crude prices settling at USD $88.12/bbl Tuesday. A hold above the 88.00 level is requisite to avoid any bearish scenario, which could effectively drive the price below 87.00. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 23, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 24, 2013 Forex Flash: Commodity-based currencies remain convoluted – UBS FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's commodity-based currencies and outline the technical positions. In terms of the AUD/USD, “There’s scope for more downside with the bearish conditions persisting. Support is at 1.0202 ahead of 1.0115. Resistance is at 1.0308 ahead of 1.0359.” In addition, the USD/CAD indicators suggest a bullish outlook, as resistance is at 1.0294, a break above this would open 1.0342 – support is at 1.0230 ahead of 1.0203. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 24, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2013 Forex: AUD/USD rejects the 1.0340 and falls to 1.0310 FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After climbing from 1.0315 to reach fresh intra-week high at 1.0340, the AUD/USD has been rejected by this level and now the pair is trading down at the 1.3010 area. It’s 0.30% positive on the day. The AUD/USD is trading slightly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index. Indicators such as CCI and Momentum are pointing south while the MACD and the Stochastic are neutral in the 15-minutes chart. Next supports are at 1.0300, 1.0290 and 1.0270. On the upside, resistances are at 1.0325, 1.0340 and 1.0360. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Will fed surprise markets with rate changes? – Goldman Sachs FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “The real risk in present day for 10-year US treasuries is less from a 1994-style move in short rates, and more from an increase in long-dated yields. However, the sea-change in the Fed’s operation and communication strategies since 1994 makes us more confident that the Fed will not intentionally surprise markets, and it has more tools to moderate the pace of any unwarranted increases.” Differences in exposures between 2012 and 1994 also point to a more reassuring conclusion: a larger share of the fixed income market seems to be in the hands of unleveraged market participants; leveraged holders (US banks) have a significantly smaller share of USTs; and bank leverage has declined. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: All eyes on USD/CHF as European economies eyed – UBS FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The recent price action surrounding the EUR/CHF has the renewed weakness of the franc this week - at a time when the dataflow has showed the Eurozone's largest economy clearly slowing – may reflect concerns about Germany as much as unsubstantiated speculation about the SNB's exchange rate regime. “Investors should therefore pay close attention to the franc. Further declines in Switzerland's currency would show that Germany and the rest of the stronger core economies in Europe are being adversely affected by the Eurozone's weaker peripheral members.” writes the UBS Research Team. If the USD/CHF in particular breaks through key resistance levels between 0.95-0.9600 it would point to the greenback making gains now against the healthier core European economies and not just the Eurozone overall. “That would be a bullish development for the greenback.” they add. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Italian maelstrom calms with likely vote of confidence – Deutsche Bank FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In Italy, the center-left politician Enrico Letta was nominated by the President to be Italy's next prime minister. Letta said he would start talks to form a broad-based coalition on today and it is likely to go to parliament for a vote of confidence by early next week. According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “the PM designate is expected to select a group of ministers, likely to be a mixture of politicians and technocrats. The new government will be backed primarily by Letta's center-left and the center-right PDL party led by Berlusconi. Away from Italy, Fitch yesterday downgraded Bank of England's credit rating to AA+/Stable from AAA. This follows on from its downgrade of the sovereign rating last week. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 25, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2013 Forex: USD/MXN flat ahead of rate decision FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Mexican peso is trading in a narrow range between 12.1600 and 12.1800 on Friday, ahead of Retail Sales in the Aztec economy and the more relevant Banxico meeting, with consensus expecting the central bank to stay put at 4.0%. According to Annette Beacher, FX Strategist at TD Securities, “There is a possibility that the market will find in the MPC’s guidance reasons to believe in further easing…. So we’re of the view that the risk of a ‘neutral’ message is higher, supporting a normalization of market implied rate expectations (currently 10-12bp of easing priced in 6m-9m)”. At the moment, the cross is down 0.05% at 12.1620. Next support levels align at 12.0626 (low Apr.15) ahead of 12.0189 (low Apr.11) and finally the psychological level at 12.0000. On the upside, a breakout of 12.2043 (MA10d) would expose 12.3535 (high Apr.22) and then 12.3750 (high Apr.23). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2013 US: Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment beats consensus and jumps to 76.4 in April FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The April report of Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment index points to a surprising rise from 72.3 to 76.4, beating the market consensus of 73.2. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: EUR/USD back to the 1.3000 zone FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro continues to consolidate around the 1.3000 mark versus the greenback, as the US GDP's inspired strength was only temporally and found resistance at the 1.3035 area. The EUR/USD failed to sustain gains and slid back to the 1.3000 area, and it is currently trading around 1.3010, virtually unchanged since opening. "Stocks are higher, and dollar lower against most of its rivals, which suggests the downside for EUR/USD will remain limited by 1.2970/1.3000 price zone", says Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com. "However, only steady gains above 1.3040 should favor a short term bullish movement, with 1.3080/1.3100 being a probable top for today". OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: Quality of lending declines in Spain – Goldman Sachs FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Alongside the fall in lending volumes, the quality of lending in Spain has also declined. According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs Too much credit is extended to unhealthy sectors with poor growth prospects, such as construction, and too little net new credit creation towards more growth-friendly entrepreneurial and export-oriented sectors. This suggests the reallocation of capital has been somewhat inefficient, providing too little support to economic restructuring.” Policy support from the ECB has been essential in avoiding a disorderly deleveraging by banks. Yet there have been costs associated with this support, which may have contributed to the low quality of lending and too little economic restructuring. The generous provision of bank funding has reduced bank balance sheet flexibility and encouraged banks to ‘evergreen’ existing loans. “These steps may have resulted in insufficient new credit becoming available, thus raising the costs of unsecured funding.” the team adds. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 26, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 27, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD on wait and see mode ahead the big bank's week FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The Euro traded mostly sideways on Friday against the Dollar. The pair was unable to break above the 1.3035 resistance and it closed the day at 1.3030. The EUR/USD seems to be trading in wait and see mode just ahead of the big banks week ahead when the Fed and the ECB will hold their monetary policy meetings. The EUR/USD closed its second negative week in row, extending declines from the 1-month high at 1.3200 reached on April 16. On the daily chart, the pair is slightly bearish according to the Fxstreet.com's trend index. Indicators such as CCI and Momentum are bearish while the Stochastic is neutral and the MACD is bullish. "The EUR/USD has spent most of the last two weeks trading in a tight range, trapped in between Fibonacci levels," FXstreet.com's analyst Valeria Bednarik comments in a recent report. "After a non lasting test of 1.3200, the pair retraced all the way back to the 23.6% retracement of its latest daily fall from 1.3710 to 1.2744, around 1.2970." The week ahead Speaking about the days to come, as BK Asset Management's analyst Kathy Lien says it’s better to "strap on your seatbelts." Next week will have a bunch of volatility as key economic data are schedule across the world. Market will be focusing mainly on the Fed and ECB meetings and the NFP report. Lien doesn't expect "much from the FOMC statement. Instead, non-farm payrolls will be the number to watch." The market consensus on NFP is about 160K new payrolls in April, well below 2012 average of 180K. In this line, Lien states that "the performance of the dollar could be mixed in the coming days depending upon how Chinese, U.K. and Australian data fare and whether the ECB cuts interest rates." The UBS analyst team states that "with the latest indicators pointing to improving conditions, consensus expects a better payrolls report." Looking the March's figures at 88K new payrolls, the April's "nonfarm payrolls should increase by 145K and private by 170K, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.60%." A reading below expectations, especially below 100K, would drive the USD lower. On the other said, a "job growth between 100K to 175K will be a relief for the Fed but probably won't inspire much optimism in the market," Says Lien. She believes that market needs to see a "job growth in excess of 200K" to fuel confidence. The big bank week With the recent economic data, it seems status quo in the United States will remain unchanged. "All talk of imminent QE downscaling can be forgotten for a while," as ING said in a report following the US Q1 GDP. But the situation in Europe is kind different with Spain (27.2%), France (11.5%), Italy (11.6%), Greece (27.2%), Portugal (16.9%) and the whole Eurozone with 12% are in a desperate situation. Forex.com analyst's Eric Viloria believes "that a cut is likely and may weigh on the common currency in the week ahead. If the bank announces targeted policy to provide support for periphery, this would likely boost the EUR." EUR heads towards the ends of April easing against most of its rivals, as over the past few weeks, market players have been listening ECB officials bluffing on the benefits of a rate cut, and pricing it in. Usually, the ECB's leaders like to prepare market for big movements, so the assumptions seem to be true. However, as Investec Research Team pointed well in a today's article, "Angela Merkel came out fighting yesterday by stating that higher interest rates are better for Germany. Whether this was a pre-emptive measure to suggest that rates will ultimately rise again or a warning shot to Mario Draghi remains to be seen," So, to cut or not to cut? "Odds are now to the downside in the pair, with a break below the 1.2970 Fibonacci level opening doors for a quick test of key 1.2880, strong static midterm support," points Bednarik. In addition, it seems that a bunch of stop orders and option barriers are below 1.2950. "Once below this last, the slide could easily extend towards 1.2740/50 area next week, but if this last gives up, then get ready for a run towards sub 1.26 level this May. " To revert actual bearish tone, "price needs to establish above the 1.3115 resistance, 38.2% of the same Fibonacci rally, with scope then for a retest of 1.3200," continues the FXstreet.com analyst. "However, only steady gains above 1.3230, will provide basis for a bullish midterm case, with 1.3510 then at sight." Finally, according to the FXstreet.com EUR/USD Banks, Brokers and Experts forecast pool, the short-term eurusd bias remains at 1.3000, as poll members forecast with low profile ahead of rate decisions. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 27, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2013 Forex: EUR/JPY surrounds 128.00 after EMU confidence report FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - With improved sentiment pushing the EUR higher, the EUR/JPY jumped to 128.32 high on the European opening and is now holding around the 128.00 mark (+0.16% on the day) after the release of the EMU confidence report. Consumer confidence improved from -23.5 to -22.3, as expected, but economic sentiment indicator (from 90.0 to 88.6), business climate (from -0.75 to -0.93), industrial confidence (from -12.3 to -13.8) and services sentiment (from -7 to -11.1) all fell and disappointed market consensus of 89.3, -0.89, -13.5, and -7.0, respectively. Portuguese consumer confidence rose from -55.3 to -54.2, and business confidence rose from -3.9 to -3.6. Italian business confidence eased from 88.6 to 87.6, below 88.9 consensus. Italian wage inflation remained unchanged at 0.0% (MoM) and 1.4% (YoY). The Greek PPI dropped from 0.8% to -1.5% in March. “The risk has increased that we will see a deeper retracement towards the 122.10 5 month uptrend. Intraday rallies should now remain capped by the 128.90/130.00 for the market to remain directly offered”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/CHF finds support at 0.9355 FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US dollar is trading lower against the Swiss franc with the USD/CHF extending its decline from 0.9420 to break down the 0.9400 region and reach the 0.9355 as fresh intra-day low. But at this level, the pair has found support following the US income and spending data and the cross is trading back at 0.9370. US personal income rose 0.2% in March; spending increased the same 0.2%. Currently the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9370, 0.40% below opening price. The pair is strongly bearish according to the FXstreet.com trend index with indicators such as MACD, CCI and Momentum pointing lower while the Stochastic is neutral in the 15 minutes timeframe. Below the 0.9350, next supports are at 0.9340 and 0.9290. On the upside, resistances are at 0.9400, 0.9420 and 0.9440. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Session Recap: EUR/USD struggles at 1.3100 FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro advanced versus the dollar and the yen, supported by optimism after Italy formed government over the weekend. However, the shared currency is having a hard time trying to consolidate above 1.3100 as investors remain cautious ahead of the ECB decision on Thursday. In the macroeconomic front, eurozone data was broadly soft while US Personal income for March also disappointed. European markets are higher, with Italy leading gains. Main Headlines in Europe (in chronological order): EMU: Consumer Confidence rises to -22.3 in April Italy bond auction goes swimmingly well France will cut 34,000 ministry jobs Euro resilience keeps the cross around 1.3100 European markets up on Italian politics and expectations ahead of ECB this week Germany: Consumer Price Index (YoY) rises 1.2% in Apr; (MoM) falls 0.5% US: PCE rose 1.0% YoY in March OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 29, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted April 30, 2013 Author Report Share Posted April 30, 2013 US: Consumer Confidence surprises and jumps to 68.1 in April FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Conference Board has reported a much better than expected consumer confidence in April, with an improvement from 61.9 (revised from 59.7) to 68.1, instead of a move to 60.8 as expected OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page Apr 30, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2013 Forex Flash: India CPI decelerated in April but should rise further on cuts in fuel subsidies – TD Securities FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Indian CPI decelerated from 5.9% in March to 5.6% Y/Y in April, printing slightly below consensus and our 5.7% forecast. According to TD Securities analysts, the decline reflected a small drop in administered and core prices, mainly fresh food, processed food and clothing. “Inflation remains above the BI’s upper target of 5.5%, and will rise further as the government has pledged to deliver cuts in fuel subsidies in May. We expect that a rise in inflation throughout the year will drive Bank Indonesia to raise interest rates by 75bp, starting in Q4’13”, wrote analyst Marcin Budkiewicz. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 1, 2013 Forex: EUR/USD backs away from highs FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro lost momentum after rallying to a fresh 2-month high against the greenback in the wake of disappointing US employment data. However, as investors assess the figures, risk aversion started to sharpen, allowing the USD to recover some ground. EUR/USD peaked at 1.3242 but failed to break higher and pulled back to the 1.3205 area before finding support. At time of writing, the cross is quoting around 1.3210/15, where it posts a 0.4% daily gain. Ahead of the Fed monetary policy decision, sour employment data adds to bank's case to maintain an ultra-loose policy and offers some downside risk to Friday's payroll number. ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for 14:00GMT. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: GBP/USD pulls back from highs after load of US data, capped just below 1.5600 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The GBP/USD failed to reach the 1.5600 mark on its upside attempts, for now, coming as high as 1.5996 after employment data by ADP. Relevant economic data in the US was already published, and now, investors are getting ready for the FOMC meeting. As of writing, the pair is correcting and trading at 1.5560 area. TD Securities analysts believe that the minutes of today’s FOMC meeting may be more interesting than the actual outcome, “as the minutes will show that the weaker run of US data has shifted the debate away from the exit of QE”. Today’s statement should also give signs of what is to come: “We expect the assessment of the economic and inflation outlook to be downgraded, reflecting a shifting emphasis relative to March when the prospect of a labor market recovery was beginning to tilt the balance towards tapering. This time around the rising uncertainty about the impact of fiscal austerity on growth and further moderation in core inflationary pressures will likely shift the balance back to an easing bias. And even though we do not expect the dial to go all the way to increasing the size of purchases, the risk of this has increased, albeit one that remains quite low”, wrote analyst Alvin Pontoh. The April update of the ISM manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.3 to 50.7, disappointing investors by coming below market consensus of 50.9. ISM prices paid fell from 54.5 to 50.0, below 53.0 consensus. Markit manufacturing PMI improved slightly, from 52.0 to 52.1 in April. The US ADP employment report came in lower than expected, at 119K in April instead of the 150K expected, also with the March figure being revised lower from 158K to 131K. Construction spending in the US contracted by -1.7% in March, according to the US Census Bureau, disappointing the market that was expecting a 0.7% rise. February data was revised higher from 1.2% to 1.5%. “The hourly chart shows price finding support in its 20 SMA, currently around 1.5540, while indicators aim slightly higher above their midlines”, wrote FXstreet.com independent analyst Valeria Bednarik. “In the 4 hours chart indicators maintain a neutral stance in positive territory, as per turning flat over the past 2 days. A strong Fibonacci resistance is located around 1.5610 with a break above this last pointing for an acceleration in the pair’s gains”, she added. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates US: EIA Crude Oil Stocks jumps to 6.696M in April-26 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EIA Crude Oil Stocks boosted its rising pace by adding 6.696M to its stocks in the week ending at April 26, following a 0.947M rise. Analysts were only expecting 0.800M. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 01, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2013 Forex Flash: Gilts engage in range-bound trading – RBS FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Gilts remain range-bound after meeting the 119.93 target, but failing to reach the 120.52 wave projection and reversing some of the gains after forming an outside session. According to Technical Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “The price however found a decent support at 119.56 and 119.27, where several Fibonacci retracement coincide, which overall suggest the worst might be over and the price should recover to 120.52 and potentially 121.00/26 after sitting in a 119.27 – 120.00 range for a while.” Moreover, the caveat would be a sustained break below 119.27. 20-day MA is also a good trailing support and pivot point. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 02, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: USD/CAD climbs to 1.0080/85 FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The renewed strength of the greenback is pushing the cross to the area of 1.0080/85 on Thursday, just pips below session highs in the vicinity of 1.0090 and reverting the negative start. “Short-term patterns continue to suggest some consolidation/basing price action in USD/CAD. The market has pushed through hourly trend resistance off last week’s high and price signals are modestly constructive around the 1.0050 area… Above 1.0105 should allow for a decent short-term bounce to the 1.0140/60 range”, suggested FX Strategists G.Moore and S.Osborne at TD Securities. At the moment, the pair is losing 0.03% at 1.0080 with the next support at 1.0060 (low May 2) ahead of 1.0051 (low May 1) and then 1.0045 (low Mar 28). On the upside, a break above 1.0100 (high May 1) would aim for 1.0173 (50% of 1.0295-1.0051) and finally 1.0178 (MA21d). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 02, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex: GBP/USD bounces from lows FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After dipping below the 1.5500 mark and hitting a 2-day low, the Cable managed to bounce and has recovered some ground within the last hours as investors now position for the NFP report. GBP/USD rebounded from a low of 1.5495 following the European close and climbed back to the 1.5530 zone, where it is currently trading, still 0.1% below its opening price. In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances at 1.5535 (intraday level) and 1.5590 (daily high) ahead of 1.5605. On the other hand, supports line up at 1.5495 (daily low), 1.5465 (low Apr 30) and 1.5420/17 (200-hour SMA/low Apr 26). OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 02, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OctaFX_Farid Posted May 3, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 3, 2013 Forex: EUR/JPY rises to 130.00 handle on US session FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - While the USD/JPY made a quick rally to 90.00 area, staying sideways since then, and the EUR/USD plunged to 1.3034 before pulling back to its highs at 1.3150, the EUR/JPY reaction to the US nonfarm payrolls during the US session has been more of a steady rise towards the 130.00 mark. The pair jumped 100 pips to 129.50 first, and then extended higher to 130.34 high slowly. The market is currently +1.50% up on the day, just below the 130.00 handle. The US nonfarm payrolls surprised investors as the March weakness was revised higher by 50K, from 88K to 138K. Also, April data came in above market consensus, at 165K instead of 145K. Market consensus was already suggesting a contraction, but by -2.6% in March, not what actual Factory Orders data showed: -4.0%. Also, the February figure was revised lower, from -3.0% to -1.9%. The non-manufacturing PMI by ISM fell from 54.5 to 53.1 in April, disappointing investors that were expecting a figure around 54.0. The European Commission granted a 2-year extension to achieve the deficit deadlines in Spain and France, placing it in 2016 and 2015 respectively. “Above 130 will target the 131.12 recent high. Our slightly longer term target is 136.71, the upside measurement from a wedge”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 03, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Forex Flash: High dividend stocks retain luster – Goldman Sachs FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to the Economics Research Team at Goldman Sachs, “We continue to like high dividend yield stocks and with more easing of global financial conditions, bond yields are close to their cycle lows and credit spreads remain tight as the search for yield intensifies.” 10-year Treasuries have rallied to below 1.75% on the back of QE in Japan and weaker global growth data – credit spreads are likely to remain tight as a result. With the yield opportunity set in fixed income shrinking further, investors are pushed up the risk curve and within equities high dividend yield stocks are often their first choice due to their attractive yield compared to other asset classes and as they are more bond-like, with more total return upfront and less from future growth. “They are also perceived to be less risky and more defensive – this move up the risk curve has probably also contributed to the outperformance of defensives vs. cyclicals year-to-date in Europe and the US.” the team adds. OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page May 03, 2013 OctaFX.Com News Updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.