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Australia: Aug business confidence deteriorates, conditions edge up
FXStreet (Bali) - Business conditions in Australia improves during the August period, to 11 from 6 in July, while business confidence receded further, coming at 1 vs 4 in July.
James Glenn, Senior Economist at NAB
"Business conditions point to a further improvement in the non-mining economy, even as jitters in financial markets weigh on confidence. The conditions index jumped 5 points to +11 in August, after losing a little ground last month, lifting the trend index to its highest level since late 2009. By component, both trading conditions and profitability recorded a notable improvement, but the employment index remains at very subdued levels.
"This outcome adds to the mounting evidence that AUD depreciation and record low interest rates are having the desired effect and helping to offset the weakness in mining. Even so, outcomes vary significantly by industry. Services sectors continue to outperform, while retail has improved considerably. The ‘bellwether’ wholesale industry remains weak, but probably reflects margin squeeze due to AUD depreciation as other leading indicators (aggregate forward orders and capacity utilisation) have improved."
"Confidence pared back further in August (from +4 to +1), unwinding the post budget gains and hitting its lowest level since mid-2013. While confidence tends to track conditions quite closely, recent financial market ructions and China growth concerns appear to have had an unnerving effect on business – albeit not enough to send confidence into negative territory (a good outcome given the degree of market volatility). Confidence eased in most industries, although mining and construction recovered some of last month’s sharp declines."
Sep 08,2015
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AUD/USD rallies and breaks away from hourly 50 SMA
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD had been pressuring the hourly 50 SMA to the upside on the Glencore news, but it is breaking even higher on the 10-minute sticks after a mixed NAB's business confidence.
The business conditions in Australia have improved during August to 11 from 6 in July, while business confidence dropped back coming at 1 vs 4 in July. AUD/USD was making a low of 0.6933, but has rallied to 0.6965 and away from the 50 SMA. The next set of data with come from China's trade data while Chinese stock markets were indicated to be opening negative 0.8% in the Shanghai Composite.
AUD/USD levels
To the upside, this break of the 50 SMA on the hourly chart brings in last week's high of 0.7062 as a target. To the downside, 0.6500 may have psychological importance, looking back on the longer-term charts, there are very little technicals until 0.6000. 0.6850 guards 0.6774 June 2004 low then 0.6280 2009 March lows and also 0.6122/.6010, the 2008 lows.
Sep 08,2015
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Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70
FXStreet (Bali) - Westpac cuts AUD/USD year-end forecast to 0.66 from 0.70, with Westpac chief economist Bill Evans noting that "doesn't expect confidence "vibe" around AUD to improve for remainder of this year."
Additional headlines - Bloomberg
Negative market perceptions around China and Australia's trade exposure to China are likely to persist
Sees EM woes continuing
Financial markets remaining volatile
Sep 08,2015
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USD/CHF retracement toward 0.9540 looks likely – SG
FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to technical analysts from Societe Generale, the USD/CHF is undergoing a consolidation within a triangle, the upper limit of the formation at 0.99 - 1.00 is likely to provide resistance and from there a retracement looks likely towards 0.9540 and even towards 0.9260.
Key Quotes:
“The USD/CHF has been undergoing consolidation since March within a pattern similar to a triangle (current limits at 0.99/1.00 and 0.9260).The pair is approaching the upper limit which also corresponds to a multiyear descending trend resistance (log scale). “
“With the daily stochastic indicator approaching resistance levels, 0.99/1.00 is likely to be a key level. Only a sustained move higher will mean an extension in uptrend. Once these levels are achieved, a retracement looks more likely initially towards 0.9540 and even the lower limit at 0.9260.”
Sep 11,2015
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GBP/JPY capped by 20 SMA
FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/JPY is consolidating, currently trading at 185.79 having been as a high as 186.88 with a low of 185.70.
The crosses in the Yen have been well placed on the bid with bullish gains instigated in risk-on recoveries that left the Yen exposed for the end of the week. The BoE's sanguine tone today on recent market volatility kept the pound supported also while we await next week's BoJ at a time when markets are starting to suspect that the Central Bank may be moving towards additions easing measures in response to the deteriorating outlook for growth and inflation in Japan.
GBP/JPY levels
Technically, GBP/JPY has started to consolidate the rising channel as MACD on the hourly starts to turn less negative and the 20 DMA caps the upside on the 186 handle. Downside levels are 185.50/80 and 185.00 guarding the 200 SMA at 183.89.
Sep 11,2015
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AUD/USD upside running into tough resistance
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD has scored some space above the 50 SMA at 0.7065 and is looking for a close in positive territory for the week, having made highs yesterday at 0.7099.
AUD/USD has staged a minor recovery on the start of the month's downtrend and lows that were down to test the resilience of the bulls at the 0.69 handle. The Australian jobs data and Chinese CPI's supported the Aussie towards the end of the week after a spell of disappointments for the Australian economy over the past few weeks having gained about 2% and ostensibly helped by the stabilization of Chinese markets and higher copper and iron ore prices, as noted by analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman.
AUD/USD rallies to find tough resistance at 0.7191
Technically, Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that AUD/USD is near term upside corrective and currently we would allow for a near term move higher to approximately 0.7165 (intraday Elliott count). "Rallies are expected to remain capped by the 0.7191 4 month downtrend and 0.7205 (last weeks high). The market will need to overcome the 0.7448 July 21 high in order to negate downside pressure longer term. Below 0.6980 will retarget the 0.6905 recent low and then 0.6774 the 2004 low longer term."
Sep 11,2015
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Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -6.4% to -6.8% in August
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 14,2015
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Speculators increased net bearish positions in 10-yr Treasury futures
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators pushed their overall bearish positions higher last week. The bearish bets are now at highest since July 7th.
The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, witnessed a weekly change of -21,131 net contracts to total a net position of -23,926 contracts in the data reported for September 8th. Long positions in 10-year futures dipped by -4,336 contracts and the short positions rose by by 16,795 contracts.
The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) boosted their overall bullish positions to a total net position of +128,067 contracts. The yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury note in the US currently trades almost 1 basis point higher at 2.192%.
Sep 14,2015
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EUR/USD off highs, eases to 1.1340
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/USD has faded the spike to multi-day tops in the vicinity of 1.1380 on Monday, now returning to the 1.1345/40 band.
EUR/USD propped up by risk aversion
Spot is extending its bullish momentum from last Friday, quickly advancing towards the upper-1.1300s while remains sustained by the Chinese-led risk aversion sentiment dominating the global markets so far.
Nothing worth noting data wise in Euroland, with Italian inflation figures and EMU’s Industrial Production, both in the pipeline later on in the day.
EUR/USD key levels
The pair is advancing 0.05% at 1.1341 facing the next hurdle at 1.1374 (high Sep.14) followed by 1.1498 (high Aug.23) and finally 1.1523 (high Aug.27). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1327 (low Sep.14) would target 1.1253 (low Sep.11) en route to 1.1147 (low Sep.9).
Sep 14,2015
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UK annualised CPI stalls in August




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday showed the UK annualised CPI in August stalled as expected, compared to the 0.1% rise seen in July.


Month-on-month, the CPI printed in line with the estimates at 0.2%, compared to the 0.2% drop seen in July. Core inflation dropped to 1.0% year-on-year as estimated.


As per the ONS report, “A smaller rise in clothing prices on the month compared with a year ago was the main contributor to the slight fall in the rate. There were also downward effects from changes in motor fuel prices and sea fares. Rising prices for soft drinks and for furniture and furnishings partially offset the fall.”








Sep 15,2015

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EUR/CHF losing altitude, near 1.0970
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Swiss franc is now reclaiming some of the ground lost to the single currency during the Asian trading hours, taking EUR/CHF to the 1.0970 area.
EUR/CHF upside capped at 1.1000
The upside momentum in the cross seen overnight has found tough resistance around the psychological barrier at 1.1000 today, triggering the current correction lower ahead of the opening bell in Euroland.
Data wise in the region, Swiss ZEW Survey-Expectations is due later, followed by the final CPI figures in the euro area during last month. Consensus expects headline prices to have risen 0.2% YoY while the core reading is seen at 1.0%.
EUR/CHF relevant levels
At the moment the cross is losing 0.06% at 1.0972 with the next support at 1.0922 (low Sep.10) ahead of 1.0878 (low Sep.9) and finally 1.0832 (low Sep.7). On the other hand, a break above 1.1011 (high Sep.15) would aim for 1.1049 (high Sep.11) and then 1.1100 (psychological level).
Sep 16,2015
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UK: Labour market strengthening, unemployment data awaited - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that the UK labour market has been showing relatively healthy underlying dynamics in recent months, and we expect this to continue into July.
Key Quotes
“We see small downside risks to the 3MMA unemployment rate, which is likely to have notched down a tenth to 5.5% (consensus: 5.6%), putting it back at its March/April level.”
“We’ll also be looking carefully at private-sector regular pay growth, which is favoured by the MPC for signs of tightness in the labour market. This measure has been drifting up in recent months (3.4% y/y in June), sitting comfortably in a range that leaves it at its fastest rate of annual growth since mid-2008.”
Sep 16,2015
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ECB’s QE to stay longer – Danske Bank




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank see the possibility that the ECB could extend its current ‘quantitative easing’ programme beyond the original date of September 16th.


Key Quotes


“ECB President Draghi was very dovish at the latest meeting at the beginning of September and based on this we expect the ECB to extend QE purchases beyond September 2016”.


“Our changed expectation comes mainly from the fact that the ECB now projects headline inflation to be only around 0.9% in Q2 16 and 1.2% in Q3 16 when the ECB is set to end QE purchases”.


“In our view, the ECB will continue its purchases if inflation is around these levels and we continue to believe that the ECB is too optimistic on its outlook for core inflation, as slack in the labour market will still be a headwind to higher wage growth in 2016”.








Sep 16,2015

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ECB’s QE to stay longer – Danske Bank
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 17,2015
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Fed interest rate decision showdown; 25bp hike? - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS explained that the FOMC September decision is released tomorrow, and we forecast the FOMC will hike the target range for the Fed Funds rate by 25bp.
Key Quotes:
"Along with a hike, we anticipate the forecasts and language may be used to reinforce an extremely slow pace of tightening and a purely data-dependent outlook for the Fed Funds rate. A result in line with our expectations would support the USD, in our view – monetary policy divergence remains a theme, even as all central banks feel the global dovish pressure of softening EM growth."
"While the FOMC meeting understandably is the key event in the US tomorrow, August housing starts and the Philadelphia Fed index for September are released in the US tomorrow as well.
Sep 17,2015
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EUR/USD testing 1.13 in early Tokyo dealing
FXStreet (Bali) - EUR/USD is picking up some upward momentum in the first minutes of Tokyo trading, currently being dealt around the 1.13 handle, having recovered from a late US dip towards 1.1275, with the bigger picture turned more bullish after a vigorous bounce overnight, following a mildly disappointing US CPI numbers.
Risk appetite improves, Euro defies logic
While the risk environment continued to support the bid tone for risk-on associated currencies such as the Aussie during Wednesday, which wouldn't have assisted the EUR/USD rise unless due to broad-based USD selling as main driver, as we saw, the current retracement in the Nikkei 225 off highs, together with last minute unwind of positions/position squaring ahead of the FOMC monetary policy decision (due at 2GMT - 30% implied probability of rate hikes based on CME Fed funds), may have contributed to the latest 20 odd pips jump in the Euro.
EUR/USD technicals
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, shares her view on the EUR/USD, noting: "The 1 hour chart shows that the price is now around its 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators lost upward potential, and turned lower, approaching now their mid-lines."
"In the 4 hours chart, a neutral stance prevails, with the price unable to establish above a flat 20 SMA, and the technical indicators stuck around their mid-lines. The upcoming direction depends solely on FED's decision now, with the dollar seen appreciating should the Central Bank pull the trigger", Valeria adds.
Sep 17,2015
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EUR/USD drops to lows near 1.1160 ahead of European open




FXStreet (Mumbai) - EUR/USD failed to resist the 1.12 barrier and fell back into the red in the early moves, as the US dollar resumed its correction higher amid improving risk sentiment.

EUR/USD rejected at 1.1200

The EUR/USD pair trades -0.21% lower at 1.1166, hovering close to fresh session lows struck at 1.1163 some minutes ago. The main currency pair stalled its tepid recovery just ahead of 1.12 handle and slipped back in the negative territory as the USD bulls jumped back into the bids on the back of a better risk environment.

Moreover, markets are predicting a higher for the European stocks, following a stronger performance by the Asian equities, which diminish the demand for the euro as a safe-haven, thereby weighing on EUR/USD. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 futures, trade 0.50% higher while the DAX futures are also seen marginally higher.

Meanwhile, markets are likely to stay focussed on Fed officials’ speeches in the day ahead as the macro calendar for today’s trading session remains fairly light.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1206 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1245 (Sept 3 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1130 (Sept 9 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1088 (Sept 4 Low) levels.









Sep 22,2015
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USD strength pointing towards improving global sentiment – SocGen




FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that weakness in Asian/European equities yesterday morning was followed by a US rally, and that in turn took Treasury yields back up and dollar’s status as a funding currency or as a safe-haven currency for that matter is lost. Instead, it’s a barometer of the global mood which, is improving (today, at least).

Key Quotes

“The trouble is that the more the mood is positive, the more noise the FOMC hawks will make and the better the chance of a 2015 rate hike. At the moment, significant further dollar strength is dependent on both longer-dated US yields and equities rising. That’s possible on a quiet day like today, but if we get back to more risk-averse markets, the dollar is unlikely to out-perform the yen and Euro, even as all three do well against everything else.”

“The most visible loser as the better risk mood was the Euro. Psychologically, a close last night below the 200-day moving average (1.1209) and a failure to break back above it this morning puts the September low at 1.1087 in the market's sights, but I think it would take a move back through 1.10 to signal that this is more than just noise.”








Sep 22,2015
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US: Ocean of inflows pouring in – Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that M&A activities in the US have surged over the last three months with inflows at USD 54bn and accelerating US inflows have come notwithstanding the recent bout of risk aversion and possible Fed rate hikes.

Key Quotes

“YTD inflows now stand at USD 40bn surpassing last year’s inflows of USD 25bn. In the UK, capital inflows are also turning higher, in the last month alone amounting to USD 24bn. This helped the year-to-date inflows to touch USD 162bn, making it the largest beneficiary of any G10 nation.”

“By contrast, Canada has witnessed sizeable capital outflows over the three month period with outflows at USD 40bn. YTD outflows now stand at a whopping USD 94bn. YTD outflows are four times last year’s total inflows (USD 21bn). Similarly, outflows from Japan continue to rise at a steady pace with YTD outflows at USD 69bn, exceeding its outflows in 2014 of USD 39bn. Meanwhile, outflows from Euro area has softened.”











Sep 22,2015
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GBP/USD ignores Osborne’s hawkish comments


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The weak tone on the GBP/USD remained intact, pushing it to a session low of 1.5462 even though UK finance minister Osborne talked up BOE rate hike expectations.

Trades below hourly 200-MA, UK borrowing rises

The pair is trading around the support of the hourly 100-MA located at 1.5469 levels as the rise in the government borrowing overshadowed the comments from Osborne; who said the exit from loose monetary policy is coming.

The UK public sector net borrowing in August ticked higher to GBP 11.3 billion, compared to the estimate of GBP 8.8 billion. Heading into the US session, the spot could continue to track the broader market sentiment. Fed’s Lockhart speech later today could also influence the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Levels

The immediate support is seen at 1.5460 (61.8% of June rally), under which the spot could drop to 1.54 levels. On the higher side, a break above the hourly 100-MA at 1.5526 could open doors for a re-test of 1.5568 (previous day’s high).








Sep 22,2015
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GBP/USD keeps falling, near 1.5450


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The selling pressure around the sterling is now gathering further traction, sending GBP/USD to test daily lows in the mid-1.5400s.

GBP/USD in 4-day lows

Spot is extending its weekly decline towards the 1.5450 area today against the backdrop of a generalized context of USD-strength. The pair continues to trade lower after last week’s rejection around the key resistance area at 1.5660, as market participants keep assessing the potential timing of a rates lift-off by the Federal Reserve.

In the data space, UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing has widened to £11.30 billion, surpassing expectations at £8.65 billion. Across the pond, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index and the speech by Atlanta Fed D.Lockhart will be the main highlights.

GBP/USD significant levels

As of writing the pair is down 0.38% at 1.5448 and a breakdown of 1.5373 (low Sep.14) would aim for 1.5330 (low Sep.16) and finally 1.5299 (low Sep.8). On the flip side, the next up barrier lines up at 1.5569 (high Sep.21) ahead of 1.5660 (high Sep.18) and then 1.5717 (high Aug.26).








Sep 22,2015
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EUR/CHF purchasing power parity well above 1.20 – Swiss Economic Minister


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Swiss Economic Minister was on the wires today stating the purchasing power parity of the EUR/CHF is well above 1.20 and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is working towards the same.

Key Quotes

Strong franc endangers price stability

Certain risk of deflation

It is clear that Switzerland remains an attractive place to do business







Sep 23,2015
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ECB adjusts the purchase process in its QE program


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Wednesday that the Governing Council has decided to adjust the purchase process in its bond-buying program and increase the proportion of purchases by national central banks rather than external managers in its quantitative easing (QE) program launched in March this year.

Starting on October 27, the Bank of France and the National Bank of Belgium will act as Eurosystem asset managers executing purchases, the ECB stated, and the contracts of two of its current external executing asset managers will be extended.

In a press release, ECB noted, "The executing asset managers will continue to conduct eligible ABS purchase transactions on explicit instructions from, and on behalf of the Eurosystem. The Eurosystem will maintain its role in undertaking price checks and due diligence prior to approving transactions."






Sep 23,2015
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No need to act in the short term – ECB’s Nowotny


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) member Edwald Nowotny, while speaking to Bloomberg today, played down the urge to do expand the ECB’s QE program by stating that there is no need to act in the short term.

Key Quotes On QE

Prolongation of QE may have a signalling effect. There is room to buy more of the same under QE. ECB could expand into other assets. Any QE expansion will need more thorough examination.

On Inflation

Core inflation rates have been rather stable. The ECB is clearly below its 2% inflation goal. Low oil price means incomes have improved.




Sep 23,2015
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German IFO Business Climate index surprises on the upside in Sept



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Business sentiment among German investors surprisingly improved in September, shrugging-off the sell-off in the Chinese and global stock markets. The result, however, did not reflect the latest turmoil caused by a false emission scam at the country's auto giant Volkswagen.

The headline Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 108.5 during September, above the 108.4 booked in August.

Meanwhile, the Current Assessment sub-survey, indicating current conditions in the euro area's number one economy, booked 114 points, after the previous month's figure of 114.8 and below estimates of 114.7 points.

Whilst, the Ifo Expectations Index - indicating firms' projections for the next six months - recorded 103.3, from 102.2 in August, after estimates had called for a reading of 101.4.





Sep 24,2015
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European stocks recover losses, pushes up Treasury yields



FXStreet (Mumbai) - European stock markets recovered losses in early session to trade positive, thereby pushing the yields on the safe haven treasury notes in the US higher.

The Euro Stoxx 600 index turned higher from the low of 344.62 to trade around 347.75 levels; up 0.23% on the day. Germany’s DAX index strengthened 63 points and France’s CAC index added 11.5 points. London’s FTSE index inched up 19 points.

Among stocks, VW shares rose 5.4% after the CEO resigned, but are still down 28% over the past week. German carmaker Porsche was up 3.2%, while France's Renault and Peugeot Citroen stocks also rallied. Oil relates stocks like Seadrill and Tullow Oil also suffered losses.

The yield on the safe haven 10-yr treasury note in the US advanced almost one basis points to 2.153%. Meanwhile, the more policy sensitive 2-yr yield strengthened 1.6 basis points to trade around 0.711% ahead of the Fed chairwoman Yellen speech.





Sep 24,2015
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EUR/USD hovers around 200-DMA while European stocks waver



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair recovered from the post-German IFO losses to trade in the sideways manner around its 200-DMA located at 1.1198 as the Europeans stocks swing between gains and losses.

Rejected at hourly 100-MA

The spot turned lower from its hourly 100-MA located at 1.1222 levels after the German IFO current assessment index ticked lower in September. However, the spot recovered back to its 200-DMA from 1.1184 as the European stocks fell back into moderate losses.

The US economic calendar offers weekly jobless claims and monthly durable goods order report today. Fed’s Yellen speech is also likely to dominate the wires later today.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.1222 (hourly 100-MA), above which gains could be extended to 1.1267 (hourly 200-MA). On the other side, support is seen at 1.1158 (hourly 50-MA) and 1.11 levels.





Sep 24,2015
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EUR/USD drops to 1.1140 as European stocks rebound sharply


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The shared currency ran through fresh sellers versus the American dollar at the European open, dragging EUR/USD to fresh session lows near 1.1150 levels.

EUR/USD eyes 1.1100

The EUR/USD pair trades -0.72% lower at fresh two-day lows of 1.1148, finally breaking the range-trade seen around 1.1170 levels in the late-Asian session. The offered tone around the EUR/USD pair grew bigger after the European stocks rebounded sharply higher at open, improving the risk sentiment heading into the crucial US GDP figures later today.

Stock on the European bourses bounced-back on Friday, after a weak performance seen yesterday and also shrugging-off mixed performance in Asian markets. The pan-European benchmark, the Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.84% to 3,074 while the German benchmark, the DAX leads its European rivals higher, up nearly 2% at 9,600 points.

EUR/USD remains undermined and meets fresh supply on every attempt to fill in the bearish gap as the buck remains in power across the board, after Fed Chair Yellen indicated a possibility of a rate-hike later this year in the overnight trades.

Meanwhile, focus now turns towards the third estimate of the Q2 GDP data from the US due later in the NY session as the EUR calendar remains data-quiet with nothing relevant on the cards.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.1232 (Today’s High), above which gains could be extended to 1.1296 (Sept 24 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.1120 (Sept 7 Low) below which it could extend losses to 1.1103 (Sept 23 Low) levels.






Sep 25,2015
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European stocks rebound at open, USD GDP in focus


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European indices opened the last trading session of the week on a bullish note, bouncing-back sharply after Thursday’s poor performance, as markets respond positively to the latest comments by Fed Chairwoman Yellen, indicating a rate-hike later this year.

Stocks on the European bourses completely ignored a mixed performance on the Asian equities and a weak Wall Street close, and traded with sizeable gains as focus now shifts towards the second-quarter GDP data from the US, which may throw fresh light on the US economic prospects.

The DAX extends recovery from VW scandal-led losses

Markets seem to have moved past the recent Volkswagen emissions-scandal and confidence in the German stocks appear restored as the benchmark index, the DAX 30 rebounds +2.24% to 9,639.

While the UK FTSE 100 index rallied +1.90% to 6,075. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index jumps 2.47% to 4,456, while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index gains 2.39% to 3,091.





Sep 25,2015
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EUR/USD: Fresh session lows amid rally in European stocks

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair fell to a fresh session low of 1.1116 as the bid tone on the USD improved amid the rally in the European stock markets.

Risk-on rally weighs over EUR

The common currency turned lower in early Europe and extended losses to trade below its 100-MA located at 1.1144 levels. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index advanced 2.5%,capping the demand for funding currencies like EUR. Moreover, the Fed rate hike bets have become more sensitive to stock market moves off late.

Consequently, the uptick in the stock markets resulted in the uptick in the US dollar as well. Ahead in the day, the spot could be influenced by the Fed speak and the US Q2 GDP figure due for release later today.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair currently trades around 1.1125. The immediate support is located at 1.1105 (Sep 23 low), under which the pair could drop to 1.1052 (Mar 26 high). On the other side, resistance is seen at 1.1144 (100-MA) and 1.1192 (200-MA).






Sep 25,2015
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EUR/GBP upside appears limited at 0.7482 – Commerzbank


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank, the cross could face tough resistance around the 0.7480 area.

Key Quotes

“EUR/GBP broke out of its bull flag and retested its long term downtrend channel resistance line at .7396 on Thursday”.

“It fell short of the August peak at .7421 before it came off again. Together with the next higher .7482 May peak it should cap the currency pair”.

“Minor support comes in around the 200 day moving average at .7298”.









Sep 25,2015
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Gold bullish positions rose last week


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators and large traders increased their gold bullish positions higher in the data reported through September 22nd following the drop in the bullish positions in the previous two weeks.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Comex gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge fund, witnessed a weekly change of +21,578 contracts to total a net position of +61,125 contracts. The weekly bullish positions rose by 7,855 contracts and the weekly bearish positions dropped by -13,723 contracts.

The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) added to their overall bearish positions to a net total position of -57,228 contracts through September 22nd.






Sep 28,2015
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IMF to revise downwards growth forecasts – IMF head Lagarde

FXStreet (Mumbai) - In an interview for a French Magazine Les Echos on Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde noted, the Washington-based fund is expected to lower its global economic forecasts, citing slower growth in the emerging economies as the key reason for the downgrade.

Key Quotes:

“We are in a recovery process whose pace is decelerating. There is a shift between emerging countries and developed countries.”

“The first ones, who were driving a global recovery not so long ago, are slowing down. The others are seeing their momentum accelerate. This should lead us to revise downwards our growth forecasts."

"A forecast of 3.3 percent growth this year is no longer realistic. A forecast of 3.8 percent for next year neither. We will however remain above the 3 percent threshold."

The IMF will publish revised economic forecasts in October.






Sep 28,2015
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US: Busy week ahead with NFP at the Centre stage – Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that as we look ahead there’s a lot to look forward to this week with economic data capped by the September payrolls reading this Friday.

Key Quotes

“Market consensus is currently running at 202k which is more or less in with the forecast of DB’s Joe Lavorgna at 200k.”

“Fedspeak will be closely watched again and it’s set to be a busy one with Dudley, Williams and Evans speaking today, Yellen and Dudley again on Wednesday, Brainard and Williams on Thursday and finally Fischer on Friday post payrolls.”

“If that wasn’t enough, then US politics may play a factor with the end of September marking the date of the end of the fiscal year for the US government with a new budget needing to be passed. That’ll bring the terms ‘debt ceiling’ and ‘government shutdown’ back to the forefront with the latter a possibility (although House Speaker Boehner’s resignation on Friday seen by many as perhaps reducing it).”






Sep 28,2015
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Speculators trimmed neat bearish positions in treasuries last week


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed the speculators trimmed their overall bearish positions last week for the first time in six weeks.

The non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, primarily traded by large speculators and hedge funds, witnessed a weekly change of +30,949 net contracts to total net position of -8,529 contracts in the data reported for September 22nd. Long positions in 10-year futures advanced by 33,712 contracts along with a small rise in the short positions by 2,763 contracts.

The commercials (hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes) cut back on their overall bullish positions to a total net position of +93,345 contracts.




Sep 28,2015
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Speculators trimmed neat bearish positions in treasuries last week


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bullish attempts in the cross should find a tough barrier around 0.7480.

Key Quotes

“EUR/GBP continues to probe its long term downtrend channel resistance line at .7399”.

“Resistance extends from here to .7510. - the August peak lies at .7421 and the next higher May peak is found at .7482 and this should cap the currency pair”.

“Minor support comes in around the 200 day moving average at .7298”.



Sep 28,2015
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Too early to talk about expanding QE – ECB’s Lautenschlaeger


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The European Central Bank (ECB) executive board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said it is too early to talk about expanding the bank’s QE program.

Lautenschlaeger added that the ECB basic scenario is still intact and the bank must look through current volatility. Earlier today, she was on the wires stating that Some euro zone banks don't comply with governance standards.

"Our initial findings indicate that a number of banks, while meeting national requirements, do not comply with international best practices with regard to governance," Sabine Lautenschlaeger, who represents the ECB's supervisory arm on the bank's board, said in remarks for a speech to be delivered in Milan.



Sep 28,2015
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USD/CAD sidelined near 1.3330, US data eyed



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Canadian dollar alternates gains with losses vs. its American neighbour at the beginning of the week, with USD/CAD hovering over 1.3330/35.

USD/CAD attention to US calendar

The pair remains within the daily range above the 1.3300 key handle on Monday, in an apparent consolidative pattern following the correction lower from recent fresh 11-year peaks beyond the 1.3400 mark.

In the meantime, the pair will remain under pressure in light of the upcoming string of US data releases: Personal Income/Spending, PCE, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed manufacturing index; all against the backdrop of speeches by Fed’s Tarullo, Evans, Williams and Dudley.

USD/CAD levels to consider

The pair is now losing 0.01% at 1.3335 and a breach of 1.3303 (low Sep.25) would aim for 1.3233 (low Sep.23) and finally 1.3216 (low Sep.22). On the other hand, the initial resistance lines up at 1.3356 (high Sep.25) followed by 1.3418 (high Sep.24) and then 1.3495 (high Jun.29 2004).





Sep 28,2015
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AUD/USD points to range bound near term – OCBC



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank, sees the pair in a consolidative pattern in the short term.

Key Quotes

“Expect the tide of global macro/risk sentiment to potentially sway the AUD this week with range trading expected to prevail in the interim”.

“On the CFTC front, note a jump in net leveraged AUD shorts in the latest week. In the near term, the lower boundary for the pair is expected into 0.6895 with 0.7120 likely to limit for now”.








Sep 28,2015
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USDCAD: Confined to tight ranges – TDS


FXStreet (Delhi) – Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of Currency Strategy at TD Securities, notes that the USDCAD is confined to tight ranges alongside most other major currencies today, holding within the 1.3315/1.3345 zone since the opening in Asia overnight.

Key Quotes

“Spot continues to run above our estimate of Fair Value, currently around 1.2932, as oil prices remain stable but interest rate differentials have moved further in Canada’s favour over the last several days.”

“We continue to look for a pullback to the 1.3150/1.3200 area over the next several days to close some of USDCAD’s valuation gap to underlying fundamental drivers. This, we think, could set the stage for the next stage of the advance of the broader uptrend, however. Domestically, the Canadian data calendar remains quiet until Wednesday’s monthly GDP reading for July. There, we are in line with the consensus in looking for +0.2% m/m, in what would be only the second consecutive positive readings this year-to-date.”





Sep 28,2015
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Euro: Set to bounce before the ECB – SocGen

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, suggest that there are several factors suggesting that the next three weeks could offer the opportunity to trade a EUR/USD tactical rebound towards 1.14-1.15. The technical picture is asymmetrical on the bullish side, Eurozone PMIs are resilient, the dovish ECB is certainly discounted, the risk of a US government shutdown won’t help the dollar, and the EM sell off is prompting investors to put cash in safe currencies.

Key Quotes

“We recommend a 3W topside exotic trade to get leverage between 1.13 and 1.1550.”

“Volkswagen’s woes should not be a lasting euro engine: The scandal certainly has weighed on the euro lately, via the threat that the crisis hitting the world’s second-largest carmaker could hit the German economy. After a dramatic 30% fall to 2012 lows, Volkswagen shares seem to have stopped falling and traded volumes are now diminishing.

“Dovish ECB probably in the price: The ECB stance is certainly the main bearish euro factor for the coming weeks. Our economists expect the ECB to be dovish (weaker inflation outlook), but with still ample evidence of resilience in the euro area economy, as witnessed by resilient September PMIs, it is still too early for the ECB to act. Fed inaction and China weakness are not necessarily a signal for the ECB to do more.”







Sep 29,2015
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EUR/JPY challenges lows around 134.50

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Japanese yen remains well bid at the beginning of the week, taking EUR/JPY to the area of session lows near 134.55/50.

EUR/JPY supported around 134.00

The pair keeps the bearish tone for the second consecutive session so far albeit rebounding from yesterday’s troughs in the 134.00 neighbourhood. The global sentiment remains tilted to the risk-off trade so far, sustaining the bid tone around the safe haven JPY while underpinning the drop from September tops beyond the 137.00 handle.

Next on tap data wise for the pair will be EMU’s Economic Sentiment and Consumer Confidence, preceding the German flash CPI for the current month. Back to Japan, Retail Trade and Industrial Production figures are due tomorrow.

EUR/JPY relevant levels

As of writing the cross is retreating 0.20% at 134.55 and a break below 133.94 (low Sep.28) would expose 133.16 (low Sep.23) and finally 132.76 (low Sep.7). On the other hand, the initial hurdle lines up at 134.91 (high Sep.28) followed by 135.39 (high Sep.25) and then 136.14 (high Sep.21).








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Rate hike coming in 2015, Fed’s Dudley and Williams - Deutsche Bank



FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, note that the two Fed officials pointed towards 2015 lift-off in their speeches yesterday while Chicago Fed President Evans said that mid-2016 will be appropriate timing for the rate hike cycle to begin.

Key Quotes

“Although noting that his expectation on timing was ‘not calendar guidance’ and instead ‘depends on the data’, the NY Fed President said that ‘my expectation is that we probably will raise interest rates later this year’, citing confidence that the inflation target will be hit sometime next year.”

“This was followed by a much more dovish tone from Chicago Fed President Evans who said that while the Fed is getting closer to liftoff, still noted that he has mid-2016 in his projections. In particular Evans noted that in his view it will be around that time that ‘the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation’.”

“Meanwhile and speaking after markets closed, San Francisco Fed President Williams reiterated his call for liftoff sometime this year, although noted risks to this from dollar appreciation and stuttering growth abroad.”








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IMF: Inching closer to include renminbi in SDR basket – MUFG

FXStreet (Delhi) – Lee Hardman, Currency Strategist at MUFG, notes that the FT has reported today that the IMF is creeping closer to including the renminbi in their Special Drawing Rights basket as the US and other major shareholders are likely to back the move unless the IMF staff’ makes a surprise recommendation against the renminbi’s inclusion.

Key Quotes

“The remaining technical hurdles are reportedly concerns over China’s heavy-handed intervention in markets and poor communication of reforms which are causing nervousness at the IMF.”

“The caution has reportedly prompted some IMF staff to raise the possibility that the vote by the fund’s board could be delayed from November into early next year to give China more time to deliver reforms and build credibility.”

“However, a potential delayed decision would raise questions over whether China is receiving special treatment. Chinese President Xi Jinping reassured US officials last week that there is no basis for the renminbi to have a devaluation in the long run and thanked the US for their conditional support for China’s bid to have it included in the SDR basket.”



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CNY and CNH gap is shrinking – BBH

FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BBH, note that in the overnight session, the CNH once again outperformed the CNY and is closing the gap that opened between the two currencies since the August devaluation.

Key Quotes

“Now the two currencies are trading roughly at 6.3650 against the dollar. This is important for the functioning of the onshore/offshore markets, for hedging, as well as for meeting the IMF’s easily accessible criteria for joining the SDR.”

“In addition, the CNH interbank offer rate spiked to a record (since the fixing began in 2013) 8.73%, while short-dated hibor rates rose by as much as 200 bp. One interpretation for this spike is to see it as a consequence of the USD/CNH selling. Unlike the onshore market, the PBOC can’t replenish the immediate shortage of CNH. So unless the HKMA steps in with repos, we can get a spike in rates.”



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Austria Producer Price Index (YoY) down to -1.5% in August from previous -1.1%

FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.



Sep 30,2015
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EUR/USD at session lows while European equities rise

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/USD pair fell to fresh session lows of 1.1212 levels as the funding currencies like the EUR are being ditched amid the rally in the major European equity markets.

Supported by hourly 100-MA

The pair found support at its hourly 100-MA located at 1.1213 levels and recovered to trade at its hourly 200-MA located at 1.1218 levels. The EUR; already weak due to the drop in German retail sales, extended losses on account of a 1.2% gain in the pan-European Euro Stoxx 600 index.

The investors now await the Eurozone CPI figure, which is likely to show the cost of living in the 17-nation currency bloc dipped in September. The EZ CPI would be followed by the monthly US ADP employment report. Heading into these key reports, the pair is likely to track the sentiment in the major European markets.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.1232 (hourly 50-MA), above which the pair could target 1.13 levels. On the other side, support is seen at 1.1212 (hourly 100-MA) and 1.1177 (200-DMA).




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USDCAD: GDP increase likely to break string of five consecutive declines – TDS

FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, suggests that Canadian industry-level real GDP is forecast to have increased by 0.2% m/m in July and this forecasted gain would build on the 0.5% monthly pop in June which in turn broke the streak of five consecutive monthly declines.

Key Quotes

“Growth should be supported in large part by the manufacturing industry and the temporary lift from the PanAm games. Activity elsewhere is expected to be more subdued, with a soft performance expected from the real estate sector and in retail sales.”

“The rebound in growth to start Q3—currently tracking around 2.2-2.5%—will help eclipse the Bank of Canada’s very conservative 1.5% annualized forecast which will provide ample justification to keep the overnight rate on hold.”




Sep 30,2015
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