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USD/CAD neutral near-term, bullish in the longer run – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities have reiterated their bullish stance on spot in the longer term horizon.
Key Quotes
“The big question is whether the RMB devaluation will get in the way of a Fed hike in September”.
“Front-end probabilities have ratcheted lower since last Friday’s payrolls where the September meeting was penciled in at about a 60% chance of a hike to about 40% now”.
“We do not think the events take a September hike off the table and instead it will be prudent for the Fed to see how events unfold”.
“We would be hesitant to chase the move lower in USDCAD and we think playing the range in USDCAD for the day ahead is appropriate, though we prefer to be neutral. Longer-term, we remain USDCAD bulls”.
Aug 12,2015
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RUB could pick up pace in the upcoming months – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at BAML, the demand for the Russian currency is expected to gather further traction in the next months.
Key Quotes
“We keep our current RUB55/USD forecast unchanged for now”.
“Despite the likely short-term pressure from capital outflows and forced EXD deleveraging, the RUB could start receiving support from the likely reversal of massive FX positions in Russia”.
“As a result, Russia has been buying FX since 3Q13 and throughout 2014. Last year, this buying was rather aggressive”.
“According to the CBR, the Russian population and corporates bought US$30.4bn (only FX cash) in 2014, including over US$15bn in 4Q alone”.
“In 1Q 2015, banks and corporates actually started to sell, with net selling reaching US$2.8bn. Nevertheless, massive FX positions remain and will likely be reversed with a much weaker RUB”.
Aug 12,2015
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GBP/USD extends gains above 1.5600
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD has pushed to fresh highs above 1.5600 early in the New York session as US traders join in to find out China weakened the yuan again on Wednesday.
GBP/USD managed to rise past yesterday’s highs and climbed to a 6-day peak of 1.5629 as the greenback falls across the board. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5612, recording a 0.29% gain on the day.
Earlier, UK reported unemployment rate stood unchanged at 5.6% in June, while average weekly earnings excluding bonus were unchanged at 2.8%YoY. The US calendar is pretty light, with JOLTS jobs opening due at 14:00 GMT (5.300M exp).
GBP/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances at 1.5629 (Aug 12 high), 1.5650 (Aug 5 high) and 1.5700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5533 (Aug 12 low), 1.5500 (psychological level) and 1.5457 (Aug 10 low).
Aug 12,2015
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Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY): 1.3% (July) vs 1.2%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Aug 13,2015
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USD/JPY revisits highs after US retail sales
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY reacted positively and made a marginal new high following the latest string of US data which showed retail sales came in stronger than expected in July, while initial jobless claims disappointed.
Retail sales leave door open for September liftoff
US retail sales rebounded in July, rising 0.6% from a 0.3% fall printed in June and beating expectations of a 0.5% increase. Excluding autos however, sales grew 0.4%, slightly below the 0.5% of forecast.
Separated data showed initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 274,000 in the seven days ended August 8, more than the 270,000 expected. Import prices fell by 0.9% in July, led by lower fuel prices.
USD/JPY stretched to a high of 124.59 following data, but lacked momentum to extend gains and remained little changed in the aftermath. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 124.52, up 0.26% on the day, from 124.43 pre-data.
USD/JPY levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, resistances could be found at 124.59 (Aug 13 high), 125.27 (Aug 12 high) and 125.66 (Jun 8 high). On the other hand, immediate supports are seen at 123.78 (Aug 12 low), 123.60 (50-day SMA) and 123.32 (Jul 29 low).
Aug 13,2015
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US Data reaction: GBP/USD off highs; falls to daily lows
FXStreet (New York) - The British Pound is currently falling against the US Dollar as the Greenback is trading higher following the latest set of economic indicators in the US. After falling 35 pips from 1.5635 in the last few minutes, the GBP/USD is now testing lows at 1.5600.
The US retail sales rose 0.6% in July, slightly better than the +0.5% expected. Ex-autos reported an increase of 0.4%, less than 0.5% expected but the Census Bureau reported a huge revision in ex-autos for June: from -0.1% reported initially to +0.4% informed now.
Jobless claims reported 274 initial claims requested in the August 7 week. Previous week was revised 1K down to 269K.
Dollar up
The US Dollar index is trading higher today for the first time in seven days as the DXY is extending its recovery from 96.00 area to current 96.50. As previously reported, the US Dollar index is performing an inside day as the EUR/USD is in pullback mode.
GBP/USD performance
Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5603, down -0.06% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5639 and low at 1.5600. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.
GBP/USD levels
As for the short term, if the pair breaks down the 1.5600 level, it will find supports at 1.5560 and 1.5530. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5635, 1.5660 and 1.5680.
Aug 13,2015
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(Too) Early signs of rising Swedish inflation - UBS
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Swedish inflation data surprised positively on Thursday, thereby strengthening the SEK significantly. The UBS analyst team notes that even though this is good news for the Swedish Riksbank and its quantitative easing program (QE), numerous risks remain that should prevent an early retreat from easy monetary policy.
Key Quotes
“Notably, underlying inflation, excluding energy prices, rose to a five-year high at 1.5%. While this is good news for the Swedish Riksbank and its quantitative easing program (QE), numerous risks remain that should prevent an early retreat from easy monetary policy. As the US Federal Reserve approaches its first rate hike in almost a decade, higher-yielding currencies should still perform better than the SEK”.
“Swedish inflation expectations remain low and do not reveal much impact from QE. Furthermore, the Chinese currency devaluation should mute Swedish import prices, whose growth rate remains sluggish”.
“Last but not least, the Riksbank will likely be wary of reducing its easing bias before the major Swedish wage negotiations take place around the turn of the year”.
“Markets seem to have positioned themselves for another rate cut. Swedish two-year bond yields have fallen into deeply negative territory, not far off from Swiss ones. As such, we see little room left for EURSEK to rise. The pairing should continue trading in a 9.10 to 9.60 range.
“There is a high chance of another rate cut and an extension of the QE program at the next Riksbank monetary policy meeting on 3 September. No action would likely pull EURSEK down toward 9.20. Over a six to 12-month time horizon, it should fall closer to 9.00, as Swedish inflation trends will likely continue improving as inflation expectations recover”.
Aug 13,2015
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WTI drops to the $42.00 area
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Crude oil prices have accelerated its decline on Thursday, dragging the barrel of West Texas Intermediate to the vicinity of the $42.00 mark.
WTI in fresh multi-year lows
The re-emergence of the bid tone around the US dollar has been weighing on crude oil prices since early trade today, sending the barrel of WTI to print fresh lows around the $42.00 handle, levels last seen in March 2009.
Collaborating with the downside, US retail sales surpassed expectations during July, pointing to a healthy increase in consumer spending and somehow leaving the door open for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month.
WTI levels to watch
At the moment WTI is losing 2.61% at $42.19 with the next support at $42.07 (low Aug.13) followed by $40.07 (monthly low March 2009) ahead of $34.03 (monthly low February 2009) and then $30.28 (monthly low December 2008). On the flip side, a break above $46.94 (high Aug.3) would aim for $48.62 (high Jul.31) and finally $49.52 (high Jul.29).
Aug 13,2015
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USD/CAD outlook remains neutral to bearish – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Eric Theoret, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, noted the neutral-to-bearish stance around the pair in the near term.
Key Quotes
“CAD remains sensitive to its core drivers of relative policy and oil prices, the former providing for most of the recent CAD strength through a week in which markets have reassessed the Fed path in light of China as well as the softened tone from both Fed Vice Chair Fischer and NY Fed President Dudley”.
“CAD is trading in tandem with the 2Y U.S.-Canada yield spread, having broken its tight correlation to oil prices over the past week”.
“Near term risk lies with the U.S. releases and their influence on expectations for the Fed path—providing for a tightened focus on the U.S. import price and retail sales figures”.
“The MACD is increasingly biased to further downside and the RSI is threatening a near term break below 50. USDCAD has made a material break of its short term MA’s, closing well below its 21 day MA for the first time since late June”.
“Near term support is expected between 1.2920 and 1.2950, the levels closely representing the real body of the July 29 hammer doji. The 1.3000 will remain psychologically important and we look to near term resistance at 1.3100 with gains likely to be restrained above 1.3150”.
Aug 13,2015
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GBP/USD rises to daily highs after US sentiment data




FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD pushed higher and printed fresh daily highs above 1.5650 as disappointing consumer sentiment data offset a better-than-expected US PPI reading.


The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 92.9 in August, according to a preliminary reading, versus 93.5 expected.


GBP/USD extended intraday gains and posted a high of 1.5656 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.5649, recording a 0.26% rise on Friday.


In the absence of economic data for the rest of the session and with Chinese volatility having decreased significantly today, investors’ attention now turns to events that could shed light over a potential Fed hike in September.


GBP/USD levels to watch


In terms of technical levels, GBP/USD could find next resistances at 1.5656/58 (Aug 14 & 12 high), and 1.5700 (psychological level). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5588 (Aug 14 low), 1.5573 (Aug 13 low) and 1.5533 (Aug 12 low).







Aug 14,2015

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Turkey’s Central Bank keeps key rates on hold
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The central bank of Turkey (TCMB) kept key interest rates unchanged on Tuesday amid the volatile political situation in the country and persisting uncertainty.
The monetary policy committee of the Turkish central bank decided on Tuesday to keep its one-week repo rate at 7.50% and the overnight borrowing rate at 7.25%, unchanged from July. The overnight lending rate was also kept at 10.75%, while the primary dealers' overnight borrowing rate remained at 10.25%.
The central bank noted in its statement, "Loan growth continues at reasonable levels in response to the tight monetary policy stance and macro prudential measures. The favorable developments in the terms of trade and the moderate course of consumer loans contribute to the improvement in the current account balance,"
"External demand remains weak, while domestic demand contributes to growth moderately. The Committee assesses that the implementation of the announced structural reforms would contribute to the potential growth significantly."
"Future monetary policy decisions will be conditional on the improvements in the inflation outlook. Inflation expectations, pricing behavior and other factors that affect inflation will be monitored closely and the cautious monetary policy stance will be maintained, by keeping a flat yield curve, until there is a significant improvement in the inflation outlook.”
On Monday, Economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci said, ‘Interest rates need to fall’, reviving the earlier attempts of the Turkish government to influence the central bank.
Aug 18,2015
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Sell rallies in AUD/USD – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank recommends selling the pair on occasional bullish attempts.
Key Quotes
“While the timing of last week’s plunge in the CNY took us by surprise, we have been calling for a weakening in the value of the CNY vs. the USD for some time as the Chinese authorities seek to more closely align the value of the currency to the forces of slow growth and disinflation”.
“On the back of the move, we have revised up our forecasts for USD/CNY to 6.70 on a 12 mth view and, while we are forecasting that AUD/CNY could hold relative stable near current levels in the coming 12 months, this view is based on our assumption that AUD/USD will fall towards 0.69”.
“Concerns over Chinese growth are being mixed concerns over a faltering economy recovery in Japan with a worsening growth outlook for Indonesia”.
“Against this backdrop we still see scope for further RBA easing this cycle and look to sell AUD/USD into rallies. Initial resistance is likely to be provided by the 100 and 200 day smas near AUD/USD0.7370”.
Aug 18,2015
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USD/CAD drops to 1.3080 on US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is losing part of its early shine vs. its Canadian peer on Tuesday, dragging USD/CAD to session lows in the 1.3080 area.
USD/CAD weaker on data
The pair left the area above the 1.3100 handle following mixed results from the US housing sector, where Building Permits rose to 1.119 M during July, missing prior estimates at 1.232 M and down from Junes 1.337 M (revised), while Housing Starts surprised markets to the upside, rising to 1.206 M vs. 1.190 M forecasted and 1.174 M previous.
The pair remains in a consolidative pattern around the 1.3000 key handle so far, amidst increasing cautious tone amongst market participants in light of the upcoming FOMC minutes (Wednesday).
USD/CAD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is advancing 0.19% at 1.3105 with the next hurdle at 1.3159 (high Aug.12) ahead of 1.3183 (high Aug.10) and then 1.3197 (high Aug.6). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.3078 (low Aug.18) would open the door to 1.3043 (low Aug.14) and finally 1.2957 (low Aug.13).
Aug 18,2015
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TRY poised for further declines – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Cristian Maggio, Head of EM Strategy at TD Securities, assessed today’s decision by the CBRT to keep the monetary stance unchanged.
Key Quotes
“My first impression is that the CBRT has fallen short of market expectations. This comes as a natural conclusion even just looking at the market reaction after the document was published. New USDTRY all time high at 2.8941. The pair is now trading just above 2.89 but, unless the CBRT puts some substance to these promises, the lira is unlikely to receive great support going forward.
“I’m not quite sure if the goal is still stabilize the lira or just let it go weaker to help the economic rebalancing. Certainly the CBRT will have to consider the implications for the corporate sector that has large USD exposure via foreign debt. And the fact that Erdogan’s adviser Cemil praised the CBRT’s decision (‘brave’ and ‘appropriate’) shortly after the announcement today, leaves me with that bitter taste of something that doesn’t feel good but you don’t quite get what is wrong with it”.
“For now, we stick to our negative opinion on rates and currency (we see USDTRY to 3.0 in the short term and higher towards 3.30/3.35 in the coming 10 months), on the backdrop of a messy political situation that sets almost certainly Turkey for early elections. Another 5 days to figure that out”.
Aug 18,2015
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GBP/USD remains close to 1.5700
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The sterling keeps the buoyant tone on Tuesday, taking GBP/USD to the area of daily tops in the 1.5700 neighbourhood.
GBP/USD bolstered by UK data
Despite the upside momentum of the US dollar, the sterling derived support from the better-than-expected inflation figures released earlier in the UK economy, where consumer prices came in higher than initially anticipated for the month of July.
Spot quickly clinched multi-week tops beyond 1.5700 the figure, managing (so far) to break above the tough resistance area around 1.5680.
GBP/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is up 0.68% at 1.5693 with the next resistance at 1.5719 (high Aug.18) ahead of 1.5734 (high Jul.1) and then 1.5789 (high Jun.29). On the other hand, a breach of 1.5562 (low Aug.18) would open the door to 1.5536 (low Aug.12) and finally 1.5500 (psychological level).
Aug 18,2015
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EUR/PLN seen at 4.15 in 12-month – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Thomas Harr, Global Head of FICC Research at Danske Bank, expects the Polish zloty to gain further strength in the longer-run.
Key Quotes
“We believe that the increased political uncertainty in Poland will cause more zloty volatility in the near term and see a risk that EUR/PLN could inch up further in the next 1-3 months”.
“We target the cross at 4.20 in 1M and 4.25 in 3M. On a 6-12M horizon, we expect the zloty to remain supported by both a moderately more positive outlook for growth and the ECB’s QE programme as well as the end of the central bank rate cuts”.
“Hence, we expect EUR/PLN to fall back towards 4.15 in 6-12M”.
Aug 20,2015
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Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) above expectations (1%) in June: Actual (1.3%)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Aug 20,2015
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Franc to depreciate in the longer run – SNB’s Jordan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - SNB President Thomas Jordan has once again reiterated that the Swiss franc is expected to weaken in the upcoming periods.
At the same time, and as usual, he stressed that the central bank stays ready to intervene if necessary.
Aug 20,2015
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United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 8.3, above expectations (7) in July
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Aug 20,2015
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USD/CNY neutral in the short term – BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at BTMU keep the neutral stance on the pair for the upcoming week.
Key Quotes
“Unless US Fed Vice Chairman Fischer shocks markets back to September we are beginning to shift towards trading as if lift-off could be December”.
“That feels like a headwind against more USD strength next week, which used to not matter for USD/CNY but that was before the renminbi’s regime change”.
“PBOC in its stabilization campaign also seems to be leaning a bit to the downside”.
“Whether the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI # can sustain the recovery seen in its MNI counterpart, however, will be important as to whether PBOC can cement expectations”.
Aug 20,2015
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NZD/USD a top performer, but for how long?
FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6682 with a high of 0.6694 and a low of 0.6606.
NZD/USD a top performer this week
NZD/USD has been a top performer this week, relishing in the weakness of the greenback, but this may be a last valiant effort before the RBNZ next month while 0.6800 remains a key resistance and some way off in the distance. 0.7200 thereafter would be the next land mark and would indicate the unthinkable, that the bird could be headed back to the RBNZ's overvalued status.
FOMC minutes allow the bird to drift higher
The FOMC minutes have put a dark cloud over the greenback with a dovish tone, which is setting back ideas of a rate hike from the Fed as soon as September. The next data to watch out for next week will be the durable goods orders from the US along with US GDP revisions to Q2, which should be positive for the dollar, and should be supportive of a positive Q3 on the handover.
China weighing on the Fed's timing
However, China should continue to weigh on the global outlook, but more specifically, the greenback may have further to unwind should the notion be that a timing of rate hike is not appropriate in the given circumstances, where we have already seen a blow out in the EM markets and a collapse in stock markets as the PBoC devalued the Yuan by 2% which is damaging to Asian exporters. On that basis, the NZD may find a follow through of the trade-off with the dollar unwinding and 0.6800 would be back in the picture, tempting the hand of the RBNZ.
On the other hand, the greenback may attract a flight to safety over time while US stocks may seem like a safe place again in an environment where the Fed stay on hold for longer, relieving the corporate sector of ultra low costs for the foreseeable future and buoying the market. That, coupled with a soft commodities sector, would weigh on the bird considerably.
Commodities to keep the bird weak and RBNZ on the back-foot
Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank explained that, "Weak energy prices and slow growth is keeping a lid on inflationary pressures and with currencies such as the AUD and the NZD coming down from overvalued levels, the drop in their values has been generally welcomed by policymakers."
She added, "Given that supply gluts means that producers are facing up to the risk of low for longer commodity prices and that a weaker CNY threatens to erode competitiveness, we see risk that the RBA and RBNZ could take further action this year to weaker their currencies and we see falls to AUD/USD0.69 and NZD/USD0.62 on a 12m view."
Aug 21,2015
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EUR/USD gathers pace and hits 2-month highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD picked up fresh momentum and extended gains to fresh 2-month highs as the dollar continues to suffer on the back of FOMC minutes and the euro is among the best performers.
EUR/USD broke above the 1.1300 level on Friday and rose through the 200-day SMA to reach its highest level since Jun 22 at 1.1352 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1350, recording a 0.97% gain on Friday.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As for technical levels, next resistances are seen at 1.1400 (psychological level), 1.1409 (Jun 22 high) and 1.1435 (Jun 18 high). On the other hand, supports could be found at 1.1228 (Aug 21 low), 1.1213 (Aug 12 high) and 1.1200 (psychological level).
Aug 21,2015
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CNY expected to drop further – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank see the Chinese currency losing further ground in the next weeks.
Key Quotes
“The main implications of China’s new exchange-rate policy are that the link to the USD has weakened and the exchange rate has become more dependent on growth and monetary policy in China”.
“In our view, China is not aiming for a major competitive devaluation. However, relative monetary policy between China and the US suggests that the CNY will continue to depreciate and we expect it to depreciate by close to 5% against USD in the next 12M”.
“In the short run however, we expect the PBoC to keep the CNY in a tight grip ahead of the IMF’s decision on SDR this autumn. Hence, we only expect it to depreciate slightly on a 1M and 3M horizon”.
Aug 21,2015
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Bears grip European markets, sell-off resumes
FXStreet (Mumbai) - European indices resumed its downward spiral on Wednesday after the recovery seen yesterday, as the latest effort by the Chinese central banks seems to have failed to prop up the stock markets with the Shanghai composite index flipping back in to the red zone at close.
Losses came after US stocks ended Tuesday's session sharply lower, failing to keep the rally following the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) action.
The central bank cut the RRR by 50 basis points, and slashed both the deposit and lending rates by 25 basis points in response to the latest huge market sell-off.
While some stocks in Asia rebounded on Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite index closed the session 1.3% lower, even after it had edged up for most part of trading hours.
Markets also seem to have ignored the latest PBOC announcement that the central bank will inject 140 billion yuan into the financial system through a short-term liquidity adjustment operation.
Germany's DAX 30 index drops -1.31% to 9995 while the UK benchmark FTSE 100 loses -1.45% to trade at 5993. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index is down nearly -1.50% and trades at 4497, and the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 also slips -1.6% to 3,166.
Aug 26,2015
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EUR/USD: parity now unlikely by year-end – BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of GMR at BTMU, sees the possibility of the pair reaching the parity level by year end quite unlikely at the moment.
Key Quotes
“Our bearish EUR/USD view will have to be adjusted to take account of this financial market turmoil triggered by the renminbi devaluation. Extreme risk aversion has clearly resulted in a further liquidation of euro short speculative positions, surely partly versus the renminbi, and hence our current year-end forecast of parity looks difficult to achieve”.
“However, the profile will still certainly remain for the euro to move lower. The relative monetary policy factor has weakened due to the financial market turmoil given the markets were close to positioned for a September rate increase but the deflationary shock stemming from the turmoil is more worrying for the ECB than it is for the Federal Reserve”.
Aug 26,2015
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USD/CAD well supported around 1.3250 – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities see the pair finding good support in the mid-1.3200s so far.
Key Quotes
“A confusing day for USDCAD yesterday as it rallied against a backdrop of a WTI rebound”.
“Our one-month correlation study suggests WTI has the greatest influence for USDCAD but so are broader measures of risk sentiment”.
“As such, we rather think that amidst the market hysteria, the CAD will underperform since the economy is weakening and the perception of slowing global growth will also weigh negatively on export prospects”.
“As such, we think the bias is for USDCAD to drift higher in the short-term even though our daily fair value estimate is well below spot and tracking around the 1.3100 figure (our Q3 target is 1.33)”.
“The 1.3250 should be decent support but in the event of a break below we think 1.3150/1.3200 will prove to be a solid congestion zone but price action since”.
Aug 26,2015
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USD/CAD flirting with 1.3300
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is now recovering some ground lost vs. its Canadian counterpart on Wednesday, with USD/CAD looking to regains the vicinity of 1.3300 the figure.
USD/CAD rebounds after US releases
The dollar found further support after US Durable Goods Orders surpassed initial estimates during July, expanding at a monthly pace of 2.0% vs. -0.4% forecasted and advancing 0.6% MoM excluding the Transportation sector.
The current recovery in crude oil prices is lending CAD some support, offering some respite amidst the ongoing weakness surrounding the commodities-related currencies.
USD/CAD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is losing 0.32% at 1.3294 with the immediate support at 1.3249 (low Aug.26) ahead of 1.3144 (low Aug.25) and then 1.3060 (low Aug.21). On the upside, a surpass of 1.3351 (high Aug.26) would expose 1.3400 (psychological level).
Aug 26,2015
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EUR/USD back above 1.14000 on Dudley comments
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD broke below 1.1400 after the release of the US durable goods orders report that surpassed expectations. The pair bottomed at 1.1351, reaching the lowest level since last Friday. It remained trading near the lows amid a stronger USD dollar in the market, but then bounced to the upside, after W. Dudley comments, climbing back above 1.1400
The president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank said that a rate hike in September seem less compelling for him than what it was a few weeks ago. The comments reduced expectations about a rate hike by the Fed in September. Still, the NY Fed chairman hopes that the central bank can raise rates on 2015.
EUR/USD back to Monday’s level
Thanks to Dudley’s outlook EUR/USD rose back above 1.1400; before it was trading with support at 1.1350 and resistance below 1.1400, around the levels it closed last week.
The euro surged on Monday, rising 400, surpassing momentarily 1.1700. It failed to hold and it pulled back sharply erasing all gains.
Aug 26,2015
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Dudley says September rate hike seems less compelling
FXStreet (Córdoba) - William Dudley, President of the Reserve Bank of New York said that a September rate hike seems less compelling now than a few weeks ago, fueling concerns latest economic developments could delay the liftoff.
Speaking at a press briefing in New York, he said that China slowdown is having significant impact on global economy and international developments have raised downside risks. However, he added that is important not to overreact to market developments and that he is confident Chinese authorities can handle challenges.
Aug 26,2015
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EUR/USD drops to weekly lows after US GDP
FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD came under renewed pressure and printed fresh 6-day lows after data showed US gross domestic product grew at a faster pace than initially estimated in the second quarter.
US GDP expanded at a 3.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter up from the initial estimate of 2.3% growth and beating expectations of a 3.2% rise. Meanwhile, the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose 2.1% in the Q2 versus 2.0% expected.
As for employment, separated data showed US initial jobless claims dropped to 271K in the latest week down from 277K and versus 274K expected.
Investors are closely monitoring US economic data as the Fed has made it clear that the timing of the lift-off will be data dependent.
The dollar strengthened across the board and dragged EUR/USD to a fresh low of 1.1248, last seen Aug 21. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1250, recording a 0.55% loss on the day and having already retraced all previous weekly gains.
Aug 27,2015
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FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD has continued to move lower and posted fresh 1-week lows at the beginning of the New York session as the dollar was bolstered by better-than-expected US GDP and jobless claims figures.
EUR/USD extended losses and bottomed out at 1.1225 and continues to trade near lows, almost 500 pips below its Monday peak of 1.1712. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.1235, recording a 0.68% loss on the day.
Investors are closely monitoring US economic data as the Fed has made it clear that the timing of the lift-off will be data dependent. Next on tap, data includes pending home sales and the Kansas Fed manufacturing index.
EUR/USD technical levels
In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.1213 (Aug 12 high), 1.1200 (psychological level) and 1.1130 (20-day SMA). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.1300 (psychological level), 1.1317 (200-day SMA) and 1.1364 (Aug 27 high).
Aug 27,2015
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EUR/USD Bulls are losing momentum
EUR/USD sellers stood their ground and buyers retreated in recent sessions as MACD (26, 12, 9) has fallen off below its median line.
On a 4hr chart, this technical condition may be taken by many trend-following traders as a trigger to liquidate long positions.
The fact that the MACD hasn't been under zero for at least one week of trading, reinforces the argument that room for further EUR/USD depreciation is there.
Aug 27,2015
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United States Redbook index (MoM) down to 0.2% in August 28 from previous 0.3%
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 01,2015
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Investors keep scaling back EUR shorts – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Senior Market Strategist Christian Lawrence at Rabobank assessed the performance of EUR and USD according to the last positioning report.
Key Quotes
“Net EUR shorts dropped heavily again last week. This is consistent with the better tone of the EUR in the spot market and suggestive of investors unwinding carry trades as concerns about Chinese growth hit hard”.
“Net USD longs continue to decline. Although expectations of a rate hike have been fluctuating between September and December a growing minority have been calling for a later move in 2016”.
Sep 01,2015
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United States ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.1, below expectations (52.6) in August
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 01,2015
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Analysis is always the strength for a good trader, but it’s not anything to get easily, it requires a lot of hard work and effort only than we will be able to succeed. It is possible only after we get proper education and experience which is again not something easy to do, so that’s why been determined is very important.

I have learned a lot from Baby Pips, but of course things are extremely difficult and we need to work really hard, so till than I am extremely pleased to rely and depend upon this, as they have never really let me down, so kudos to OctaFX broker for making things so good that even a guy like me who rarely trust companies online is able to trust so easily.

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US nonfarm payrolls likely steady, ADP suggests - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at ING, expects that the US non-farm payrolls data is unlikely to show any significant deviation from its previous print as suggested by the outcome of recent ADP employment data.
Key Quotes
“With the ADP survey the only remotely accurate US non-farm payrolls directional indicator, the latest release might suggest that there is unlikely to be any significant deviation of Friday’s payrolls from the 215K figure printed last month.”
“The ADP employment total rose by 190K, up from a downward revised 177K in July (previously 185K). That said, a 13K monthly difference looks insignificant relative to the noise in this series, and a more reasonable description of the figures would be to say that there is no strong directional steer from the ADP this month.”
“One interpretation of this would be that the August payrolls figures will be close to the 215K result in July. But that would be to ignore the scope for occasional but sizeable divergences in these two series.”
“A better interpretation would be that anything is still possible from Friday’s labour report figures, and scope for market surprises in both directions remains, though the probabilities of this coming from the payrolls figure looks smaller at this stage.”
Sep 02,2015
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EUR/USD around 1.1240 on US data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After bouncing off session troughs near 1.1220, EUR/USD has managed to advance towards the 1.1240/45 area so far.
EUR/USD indifferent to US releases
The pair paid little to none attention to US Factory Orders, expanding at a monthly pace of 0.4% vs. expectations for a 0.9% advance. Orders excluding the Transportation sector have contracted 0.6% inter-month, down from the previous 0.6% gain.
Today’s US docket passed largely unnoticed amongst traders, who remain more concentrated in tomorrow’s ECB meeting and Friday’s Payrolls (220K exp.).
EUR/USD key levels
At the moment the pair is losing 0.69% at 1.1235 with the immediate support at 1.1226 (low Sep.2) followed by 1.1207 (low Sep.1) and then 1.1170 (low Aug.31). On the other hand, a break above 1.1320 (high Sep.2) would open the door to 1.1333 (high Sep.1) and finally 1.1364 (high Aug.27).
Sep 02,2015
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Canada International Merchandise Trade above forecasts ($-1.3B) in July: Actual ($46.05B)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 03,2015
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US witnessing moderate pace of growth, Beige book indicates - RBC
FXStreet (Delhi) – Josh Nye, Economist at RBC Economics notes that the yesterday’s release of Fed’s Beige Book report, added to this evidence that the US economy is continuing to grow steadily.
The conclusion that can be drawn from that report is that while the economic and labour market backdrop would warrant the Fed beginning to withdraw monetary policy stimulus in September, recent turmoil in financial markets could keep the central bank on the sidelines.
Key Quotes
“Economic activity “continued to expand across most regions and sectors” during the reporting period (July to mid-August). It was noted that, in most cases, overall results “represented a continuation of the overall pace” noted in the previous report.”
“Reports on manufacturing activity were “generally positive,” indicating an improved assessment relative to the “uneven” characterization of the previous report.”
“Economic conditions have improved further since the July 29, 2015 FOMC meeting. In addition to second-quarter 2015 growth being revised upward to a sizeable 3.7% annualized gain, a variety of recent indicators (including retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, home sales, durable goods, and auto sales) point to solid momentum being carried into the third quarter.”
Sep 03,2015
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US labour market expected to remain solid – BTMU
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Currency Strategist at BTMU Lee Hardman has assessed the recent results from the US labour market as well as the prospects for tomorrow’s Payrolls.
Key Quotes
“The release of the latest ADP survey yesterday revealed that the US economy added 190k private sector jobs in August. The reading was a little weaker than consensus expectations but broadly in line with the average reading so far this year of 196k”.
“At face value the survey is signalling that the US labour market has likely continued to improve which is one of the conditions that the Fed has set to begin raising interest rates”.
“However, the release of the non-farm payrolls report on Friday still presents some downside risks”.
“A weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report could initially weigh modestly on the US dollar although it would most likely be seen as under-reporting employment growth”.
“The release yesterday of the Fed’s latest Beige Book revealed further evidence of tightening labour market conditions. “Several districts reported increasing wage pressures caused by labour market tightening”, although it suggests wage growth remained sluggish nationally”.
Sep 03,2015
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Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) meets forecasts (-0.6%)
FXStreet.com (Barcelona) For more information, read our latest forex news.
Sep 04,2015
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CAD: Economy turning towards revival led by export growth - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Analysts at Scotiabank feels that Canadian economy is taking a step towards economic revival as indicated by the robust export sector growth.
Key Quotes
“Export volumes climbed by 1% m/m. While the prior month’s gain was revised lower to post a gain of 3.6% m/m in June, which is over a percentage point less than originally thought, the fact that we got any growth in July is a plus off of what is still a strong June report.
“Import volumes climbed by 0.5% m/m in July and this signals stabilization in domestic demand.”
“If the data sticks in future revisions, then growth in Canadian export volumes is tracking at almost 12% for Q3 at an annualized and seasonally adjusted pace while import volumes are tracking a much softer gain that on net is driving a significant improvement in net trade as a contributor to GDP growth."
“Another encouraging point is that breadth was ok with some solid positives interspersed. In dollar terms, exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts advanced by 5.5% m/m and are up 14.7% as cap-ex related exports are solid. Exports of consumer goods were also higher by 7.3% m/m. Exports of agricultural and fishing products were also up by 3.1% m/m.”
Sep 04,2015
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USD/JPY wavers after US nonfarm payrolls
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY oscillated sharply in the minutes that followed the release of the so-awaited US employment report, which showed US economy created fewer jobs than expected in August.
US nonfarm payrolls came in at 173K in August down from 245K the previous month and below the 220K expected. The unemployment rate edged down to 5.1% versus 5.2% expected.
USD/JPY reacted negatively and hit a low of 118.60 before quickly bouncing to 119.61 only to return to the 119.00 zone. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 119.07, still 0.81% below its opening price.
Sep 04,2015
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EUR shorts keep scaling back – Rabobank





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, reviewed the last report on net speculators’ positioning.


Key Quotes


“Having dropped sharply the previous week net EUR shorts increased modestly suggesting that the recent aggressive unwind of EUR short positions may be running out of steam”.


“Net USD longs have edged lower having dropped more sharply the previous week. Expectations of a September Fed rate hike have been pared significantly over the past month although a robust set of August Labour data may lend the USD support this week”.







Sep 07,2015

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