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USD/CHF oscillates after US employment data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF oscillated between daily highs and lows as the dollar searches for direction following the release of US nonfarm payrolls.
Data showed, US economy added 223,000 new jobs in April, slightly below the 224,000 expected while the unemployment rate dropped to 5.4% from 5.5% the previous month. However, the bounce was offset by the nasty revision for March, down to 85K from 126K previously estimated.
USD/CHF dropped to a low of 0.9495 and then jumped to a high of 0.9277 as investors continue to digest data. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9235, still 0.23% above its opening price.
May 08,2015
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Gold prints fresh session highs on the mixed NFP report
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices rose to a session high of USD 1193.3/Oz, before paring gains to trade at USD 1189.8/Oz after the labor department data in the US showed the economy shed 39K jobs in the previous two months.
Gold: Stuck at 50-DMA
The metal is once again having a tough time in sustaining above its 50-DMA currently located at USD 1190.87. The gains could have been capped as the economy added 223K jobs in April after having added just 84K jobs in March. The rebound in April is more or less in line with the Fed’s view that job markets should remain robust despite slowdown in the first quarter.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at the daily high of 1193.3, above which gains could be extended to 1200.00. On the flip side, a break below 1181.6, could drive the metal down to 1177.5-1169.6.
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USD/CAD approaches 1.2100
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - After a quick knee-jerk to the 1.2040 region, USD/CAD has now returned to the area of 1.2100 following US Non-farm Payrolls and Canadian data.
USD/CAD back from 1.2150
Volatility around the pair seems to have eased a tad now, with spot looking to stabilize below the 1.2100 handle following the releases in Canada and the US. It is worth recalling that the US economy created 223K jobs during the last month, in line with expectations, whereas the employment in Canada decreased more than anticipated by 19.7K vs. a forecasted drop of 5K.
USD/CAD key levels
At the moment the pair is down 33% at 1.2087 a breach of 1.2033 (low May 7) would open the door to 1.1940 (low May 6) and finally 1.1934 (low Jan.19). On the other direction, the initial up barrier lies at 1.2164 (high May 7) ahead of 1.2180 (high May 4) and then 1.2205 (high Apr.27).
May 08,2015
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EUR/GBP drops below 0.72
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/GBP ran into fresh offers at 0.7250 post which the currency pair fell to a session low of 0.7199.
Euro under pressure ahead of Eurogroup meeting
The shared currency is being offered ahead of the Eurogroup meeting, which is expected to end with another stalemate between Greece and its international creditors. The real concern is a possibility of Greece failing to meet its payment to IMF due tomorrow.
Meanwhile, the British Pound is being favored ahead of the BOE meeting, which is likely to be a non-event. However, the GBP/USD pair has taken out key resistance levels to trade near 1.5490 levels, thereby pushing the EUR/GBP cross lower.
EUR/GBP Technical Levels
The pair currently trades at 0.7205. The immediate resistance is located at 0.7225, above which gains could be extended to 0.7258 (50-DMA). On the other hand, a failure to rise above 0.72 could send the pair down to 0.7162 (Apr. 16 low).
May 11,2015
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BOE maintains Bank rate at 0.5%
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Bank of England (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left the Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of the purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at GBP 375 billion.
The previous move from the BOE was a reduction of 0.5 percentage points in the bank rate to 0.5% on 5 March 2009. The bank’s latest inflation and output projections will be released via its Inflation Report to be published at 10.30 a.m. on Wednesday. On the same day, an open letter from the Governor to the Chancellor of the Exchequer will be published, following the release of data for CPI inflation of 0.0% in March.
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USD/JPY: consolidation with upside bias – AceTrader
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The AceTrader Team, expects USD/JPY to consolidate in its broad 118.33-122.03 range with a mild upside bias.
Key Quotes
“Despite dollar's retreat from 120.24 to 119.59 in New York session on Friday, as early rally from 119.06 (Thursday) signals further choppy trading inside the 8-week long broad range of 122.03-118.33 would continue and with mild upside bias, re-test of last week's peak at 120.51 is envisaged but break needed to extend up move from April's low at 118.50 towards 120.84.”
“On the downside, only below 119.06 would yield weakness towards 118.70/80 but support at 118.50 should remain intact.”
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Greek default risk heightens – MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dean Popplewell, Director of Currency Analysis at Market Pulse, comments that today’s Eurogroup-Greece talks have heightened the concerns about Greece’s banking system, and further adds about the potential impact on EUR/USD as the previously seen yield support diminishes.
Key Quotes
“The EUR starts this week on the back foot as nerves have convinced some longs to liquidate ahead of today’s Eurogroup meeting. Renewed concern over Greece’s future in the eurozone will always produce headwinds for the euro.”
“No agreement is seen on Greece at this time, but European Union members are expecting progress to be evident in the negotiation process. The talks between the Greek government and its international partners are entering a crucial phase, overshadowed by a precarious fiscal situation, heavy debt redemption, and concerns about the stability of Greece’s banking system.”
“A majority of the market expects a deal to be reached, but the failure to reach an agreement in the coming weeks could firmly put Greece on the Grexit path.”
“With the fixed-income market leading the forex moves of late, the EUR bull will be looking toward the rates market for support. A pleasant surprise for EUR long positions is that the two-year U.S.-German yield spread has narrowed -5 basis points since Friday’s jobs report, and with 10s at +158 basis points, they are in -3 basis points today and remain close to last week’s +152 basis points low.”
“The EUR bear is required to break €1.1135 support with momentum before pointing to further losses toward €1.1055 and €1.0850.”
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Gold trades flat
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices trade more or less unchanged on the day at USD 1189.90/Oz, after having recovered from the low of USD 1183.74/Oz.
Gold: a resilient safe haven
The resilience shown by the metal contradicts the drop seen in the other safe haven assets like Treasuries, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Moreover, the metal has ignored the strength in the USD index as well as the hardness in the yields. The 10-year yield in the US has strengthened 3.6 basis points to 2.186%. The Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen have lost 0.10% and 0.32% respectively against the US dollar.
Meanwhile, the mixed action in the major European markets, coupled with a flat activity in the US equities fail to provide clear trading cues to the yellow metal.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is seen at 1192.93 (50-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 1199.5 (May 5 high). On the flip side, a break below 1189.37 (hourly 200-MA), could send the metal back to 1185.86 (hourly 50-MA).
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USD/JPY might extend to 120.45 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, USD/JPY 4hourly technicals remain in favour of some gains towards 120.45, with any further gains possible only on a break above this.
Key Quotes
“The USD/JPY trades in a quite limited range around the 120.00 figure, having posted some limited advances during the Asian session, following Chinese decision to cut rates during the weekend.”
“In the short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the price advanced above its 100 and 200 SMAs, whilst the technical indicators stand in positive territory, albeit showing no upward strength.”
“In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator heads strongly north above the 100 level, whist the RSI indicator also aims higher around 55, all of which favors some additional advances, up to 120.45. Nevertheless, the pair needs to extend above this last to extend its advance, as the pair has faltered above the 120.00 level several times over this last month.”
“Support levels: 119.55 119.20 118.90”
“Resistance levels: 120.05 120.45 120.80”
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GBP/USD reaches fresh 2015 high
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD broke decisively above the 1.5520 resistance area and pushed to its highest level in 2015, as the pound continues to strengthen following UK elections.
Earlier on the day, the the Bank of England's MPC left the Bank rate and QE unchanged, at 0.5% and GBP 375 billion respectively, with focus now turning to Wednesday's Quarterly Inflation Report.
GBP/USD surpassed Friday’s high at 1.5523 and accelerated to a peak of 1.5572, last seen December 31st 2014, helped by EUR/GBP slump. At time of writing, Cable is trading at 1.5563, recording a 0.73% gain on Monday.
GBP/USD technical levels
On the upside, next resistances line up at 1.5572 (daily high), 1.5600 (psychological level) and 1.5640 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.5392 (daily low), 1.5300 (psychological level) and 1.5245 (May 8 low).
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USD/JPY outlook neutral - Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With USD/JPY still trapped in its broad 118.50-120.50 range, Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, maintains a technically neutral outlook on the pair, awaiting a break from this range.
Key Quotes
“JPY is quiet, consolidating within a narrow range as moderate risk aversion provides an offset to the broader USD performance. Domestic releases are limited this week, given current account and PPI releases and a speech from Gov. Kuroda.”
“USDJPY technicals remain neutral, and we await a break of the month-long range of 118.50 to 120.50”
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EUR/USD: Comes with chances of recovery still above 1.1052
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1159 with a high of 1.1208 and a low of 1.1133.
EUR/USD has seen some out of synch price action that may be correlated to option expiries in the EUR/USD that are both large, close to prevailing rate and close to expiry at NY cut 10am. The price 1.1150 for quick 35 pips or so only to drop back and resume the downside again to prevailing prices.
Meanwhile, there is still a cautious tone over Greece with the forthcoming deadlines and vast amounts of Greek debt that needs to be settled. For instance, tomorrow alone, there is the deadline for Greece to repay EUR757m to the IMF. However, June is not far off and this is more of a concern as there is a requirement for the larger EUR1.5b IMF repayment and then the EUR 3b which will be owed to the ECB in July and August.
Technically, EUR/USD the major is well blow the highs of last week at 1.1392 and there was a divergence in the RSI and hence the resumption of the downside. There is strong support sighted by analysts below prevailing rate, and this is sighted at 1.1052 26th March high. While we trade above here, there is he chance of the upside recovering.
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USD/JPY strong resistance at 120.80/121.20 – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of strategists at Westpac, the area of 120.80/121.20 remains a strong barrier for USD/JPY.
Key Quotes
“At the risk of moving well beyond the point of being considered boring, we remain of the view that USD/JPY is in a range trade, that dips are still an opportunity to buy and that dips are 118.50 or below”.
“The rapid rise in global bond yields/ steepening in Asian NDF curves is flashing warning signals for us, warning signals that a bout of risk aversion may be ahead”.
“AUD/JPY has a double top at 96.00, EUR/ JPY is making 2 month highs. USD/JPY and yen crosses look expensive to us here, so we are not inclined to step up. So we remain neutral for yet another week”.
“Dips held around multiple lows down to 118.33 in the recent weeks. Mild short term upside bias. Resistance remains firm towards 120.80/121.20”.
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USD/CAD testing lows near 1.2030
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US dollar pared previous gains and dropped to fresh four day lows against its Canadian counterpart in the European session, with USD/CAD extending declines towards 1.20 handle, mainly driven by heavily offered US dollar across the board together with a sharp rebound seen in oil prices.
USD/CAD back on 1.20 handle
Currently, the USD/CAD trades lower by -0.59% at 1.2033, testing fresh four day low at 1.2026 levels. The USD/CAD pair extends losses as the resource-linked loonie strengthened amid a solid come back in oil prices ahead of OPEC report. Oil is Canada’s top export.
Moreover, persistent broad based US dollar weakness also hurts USD/CAD, dragging it from 1.2108 daily highs. The US dollar index (DXY) which measures the relative strength of the greenback versus six major currencies now trades at 94.48, down -0.67% on the day.
USD/CAD Technical Levels
To the upside, the next resistance is located at 1.2108 levels and above which it could extend gains 1.2146 levels. To the downside immediate support might be located at 1.2000 levels, below that at 1.1932 (April 29 Low).
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DXY could drop to 90.00/92.00 – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US Dollar Index (DXY) could extend its downside to the area of 90.00/92.00, according to strategists at Westpac.
Key Quotes
“West coast ports and BEA imports data confirm the ports disruption is now in the process of being cleared”.
“15 year lows in jobless claims and still healthy reads for both the Markit and ISM services PMI are encouraging too”.
“However the growing body of evidence suggests the dislocation in energy output and investment along with the higher USD are exerting a bigger drag”.
“Consensus has thus far trimmed 2015 GDP from 3.2% in Jan to 2.8%, yet our analysis suggests these two more enduring headwinds could lop at least 1ppts from 2015 GDP growth”.
“Bottom line the trend toward US growth downgrades and deferred Fed tightening expectations appears to still have a way to go”.
“We have run with a negative one month USD bias and a bullish three month bias for some weeks, in the case of the latter looking for oil prices, yield spreads and growth differentials to swing back in a USD positive direction. We are growing impatient with the three month bullish USD index outlook”.
“Response to numerically significant resistance at 100.00 has been an impulsive rejection, implying a likely multi-week / month decline, initially towards 90.00/92.00”.
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USD/CAD seen higher medium term – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the opinion of Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, the pair is expected to resume its upside along with expectations of the Fed hiking by year end.
Key Quotes
“The BoC has decided to look through “the effects of the recent depreciation of the CAD”.
“The market has inferred that the BoC is not positioning itself to follow its January ‘insurance’ interest rate cuts”.
“Together with the recent broad-based sell off in the greenback and higher oil prices, this has supported the CAD and USD/CAD has plunged over 6% between mid-Mar and late Apr”.
“That said, March trade data highlighted a widening in the deficit to a record C$3 bln led by a slump in energy exports”.
“These data should hamper further upside potential for the CAD although the outlook will remain dominated by oil prices”.
“Since we look for a Fed rate hike in Dec, we expect USD/CAD to push higher in the months ahead”.
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Technical outlook for USD/JPY – DayTradeIdeas
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jason Sen of DayTradeIdeas, gives the technical outlook and key upside and downside levels for USD/JPY.
Key Quotes
“USDJPY holding above 120.00/05 targets 120.20/25. If we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 120.50/55. A good chance of a high for the day but shorts need stops above 120.65 to test April highs at 120.80/84. If we continue higher look for 121.00/05 then 121.20.”
“First support at 120.05/00 but below here look for 119.70/75. If we continue lower look for support at 119.50/45. However a break lower today meets support at 119.25/20 which should hold the downside but below here risks a slide to support at 118.95/90.”
“If we continue lower, trend line support at 118.70/60 is a buying opportunity. Try longs with stops below 118.45 but on a break lower look for support at 118.30/20.”
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EUR/USD deflates to 1.1240




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upside momentum in EUR/USD now seems to have found strong resistance in the 1.1280 area, prompting the current knee-jerk to the 1.1245/40 band.


EUR/USD remains firm above 1.1200


The pair managed to regain the 1.1200 handle after bottoming out in the 1.1130 area on Monday. The fresh upside momentum has been propped up by a wave of selling interest in the debt markets, taking Bund yields to fresh multi-month highs.


In addition, renewed optimism around the Greek debt renegotiation after yesterday’s Eurogroup meeting would be lending support to the euro as well.


EUR/USD levels to watch


At the moment the pair is advancing 0.77% at 1.1241 with the next hurdle at

1.1290 (high May 8) ahead of 1.1392 (high May 7) and finally 1.1400 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1131 (low May 11) would target 1.1067 (low May 5) en route to 1.1059 (38.2% of 1.0521-1.1392).






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RBA might cut BoE remains dovish, but medium-term GBP bullish view intact – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jacqui Douglas, Chief European Macro Strategist at TD Securities, notes that the Bank of England May QIR saw GDP growth revised lower across the board with risks to global growth now lying to the downside, CPI revised up only ever so slightly in near-term, and inflation still taking two full years to reach 2.0%.
Key Quotes
“Today’s Inflation Report was rather uneventful, with a more dovish outlook than we had anticipated but very little market reaction. Near-term CPI forecasts were revised a little higher, but less than we had expected with the BoE still highlighting a potential move into negative territory in the coming months.”
“GDP growth was revised lower across the forecast horizon, which was not something that we had anticipated. This seems to be due to a combination of the softer Q1 preliminary GDP outcome, and the political situation in Greece leaving the risks to global growth shifting from balanced to the downside now.”
“The BoE also downgraded near-term wage growth, where the February forecast was for a 3.5% Y/Y pace by Q3 this year, and the projection now is for a 2.5% Y/Y rate by Q4, although the 2016 and 2017 forecasts were unchanged at 4% for both years, so the improvement is just going to be a little slower than initially expected.”
“Overall the take-away here seems to be that there’s no urgency at all to begin raising rates, but we still think that markets will start turning toward that idea in the coming months.”
“We think that the Q1 weakness was more of an anomaly, and there’s a good opportunity for a solid bounce in Q2 and stronger growth through the rest of year, which should have markets thinking harder about rate hikes.”
“Especially with Fed rate hikes looking a little less certain this year, it now may be a race between the Fed and the BoE for who will be the first to hike, even if that wasn’t obvious from today’s QIR, so in the medium-term we’re still very comfortable with a bullish GBP outlook.”
May 13,2015
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EUR/DKK peg under pressure? – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, sees the possibility of the EUR/DKK peg to be under pressure.
Key Quotes
“The aggressive monetary easing announced by the DNB at the start of the year was oriented at protecting the EUR/DKK ERMii peg”.
“The impact of that policy is now lending support to economic activity”.
“The DNB expects growth at 2.0% this year and to remain at that level in 2016 and 2017. The Bank has candidly pointed out that “there is no deflation”.
“For a central bank clouded with a deflationary risk, it will always be easier to weaken its currency, as the DNB was trying to do this year”.
“However, once the deflationary risk is removed, aggressively easing could raise the risk of medium-term inflation”.
“It follows that if CPI inflation begins to head higher in Denmark, speculators may yet have reason to bet against the EUR/DKK peg”.
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US retail sales expected to disappoint – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the US data release today, FX Strategists at TD Securities expect the retail sales results to show a below consensus gain .
Key Quotes
“We finally get some top-tier economic data this week in US retail sales. This report will be for April and will be closely parsed for signs that Q1 softness was more temporary than a sign of a slowdown in US growth.We are looking for small disappointment relative to the market across all measures of retail sales (market: 0.5% m/m for headline) but we would note that the core metric is still expected to be print at a respectable 0.4% m/m (market: 0.5%).”
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USD remains fundamentally overvalued - Westpac
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The research team at Westpac expects a strengthened downward pressure on the US dollar in the month ahead pointing to the upcoming macro prints and comments from the central bank.
Key Quotes:
"We see little reason to steer away from a cautious USD outlook and stick with a negative week and month ahead bias,"
"Our DXY fair value model, based on relative growth, yield and CB balance sheet trends, as well as world oil prices suggest the USD remains fundamentally overvalued, while consensus growth prospects for 2015 still look too high at 2.8%, with barely 0.4ppts trimmed from 2014 prospects due to the high USD and the dislocation in the energy patch,"
"Our analysis suggests that these two enduring negatives could easily shave 1 percentage point from 2015 growth."
"The PMIs should underwhelm next week while the minutes may weigh on the USD too, assuming they convey the same sentiments as the statement which was more cautious on the economy."
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Gold inching higher ahead of weekly US jobless claims release
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices have strengthened moderately ahead of the weekly jobs data in the US. Fresh bids around USD 1213/Oz pushed the metal higher to the current price of USD 1218.6/Oz.
Gold gains as jobless claims seen rising
The metal is being bid higher in anticipation of an uptick in the weekly jobless claims. The data is expected to show initial claims ticked higher to 275K from the previous week’s 265K. Even the US Treasury yields have dipped, which provides further support to Gold.
The metal had witnessed stellar gains in the previous session as it rose more than USD 20 on the back of a weaker-than-expected US advance retail sales data.
Gold Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1224.4, above which gains could be extended to 1236.8 (Feb. 16 high). On the flip side, a break below 1215 could push the pair down to its 100-DMA located at 1210.43.
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Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 1.4% to 1.2% in April
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May 14,2015
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Fed looks for clarity - MP
FXStreet (Barcelona) - With markets pushing back US rate hike expectations, Dean Popplewell, VP of Currency Analysis and Research at MarketPulse notes the data dependent Fed gives little choice to the central bank but to wait for further clarity.
Key Quotes
“The Fed has its problems. They want to raise rates, but the timing is crucial, as too soon could unwind all the good that would require them to back peddle. Yellen and her fellow cohorts are trying to justify their next move on the back of Q1 “transitory” blip.”
“Yesterday’s U.S retail sales number was a bust and a big disappointment to those who are banking on a Q2 rebound in consumption. The drop in year-over-year energy prices (tax saving), higher savings and a stronger labor market (+5.4% unemployment rate) has yet to convince the U.S consumer to spend.”
“The Fed’s normalization rate time line is data dependent, but the latest batch of economic releases are very much mixed and are accompanied with quiet a bit of market noise. This would suggest that recent asset price moves are not wholly fundamentally drive.”
“The stretch positions taken of late are led mostly by fear and liquidity constraints, whether it’s in the fixed income, commodities or forex asset class. The Fed’s data dependency motive gives them little choice but to wait for such clarity. Hence why U.S fixed income is looking further out their curve for the first rate hikes.”
“Some dealers are leaning towards September, but current data would suggest that the Fed has time on their side. This is allowing others to push back Fed rate hike expectations into next year.”
May 14,2015
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Gold rises to three-month high, Silver gains 1.5%
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extended gains to hit a three-month high of USD 1223.3/Oz, while Silver jumped 1.5% to trade at USD 17.42/Oz as previous metals pack benefits from the sell-off in bond and equities.
The precious metal have been supported recently by the sell-off in the bond and equity markets. Furthermore, a weak US dollar is also supporting gains. Even the strong data out of the US are being ignored by the previous metals, which is evident from the uptick witnessed today post the release of a better-than-expected US weekly jobless claims data.
Gold has now rallied for three consecutive sessions, gaining more than USD40, while Silver too has gained from USD 16.13 to USD 17.42 levels. The precious metals pack could extend gains even further in case the sell-off in the equities and bond markets continue.
May 14,2015
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EUR/USD key support at 1.1340 – FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that the key support for EUR/USD remains at 1.1340, and as long as the pair remains above it a move towards 1.1533 stands likely.
Key Quotes
“With no macroeconomic data released in Europe, market's attention gathered around Greece's headlines, as FM Yanis Varoufakis has been hitting the wires with doom announcements among which he said that Greece would have never had to join the union, or that the country will sink without reforms. He also claimed for a delay in its repayments to the ECB and said they will pay the IMF only they get a deal.”
“Nevertheless, the common currency held near its highs with a brief dip down to 1.1374 before regaining the upside.”
“In the US, weekly unemployment claims came out better than expected last week, down to 264K, whilst Producer Price Indexes for April resulted negative, -0.4. Good employment, bad inflation, a mixed message when it comes to next FED's rate hike.”
“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the pair is struggling to hold above 1.1400, whilst the technical indicators have turned lower in positive territory and the 20 SMA provides a short term support around 1.1375.”
“In the 4 hours chart indicators are turning lower in overbought territory, but still far from signaling a strong retracement.”
“The critical support comes at 1.1340, and as long as the price holds above it, there's room for an upward continuation up to 1.1533, early February daily high.”
“Support levels: 1.1375 1.1340 1.1300”
“Resistance levels: 1.1430 1.1465 1.1500”
May 14,2015
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USD/JPY remains bullish for 124.59 – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT, Technical Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, maintains the bullish outlook on USD/JPY, anticipating a move higher towards 124.59.
Key Quotes
“Evidence says that the bull trend of the past 4+ months is drawing to a conclusion and the long-term uptrend is set to resume for 124.59, ahead of 128.45.”
“Below 118.33 invalidates this view and points to continued range-trading, while those awaiting additional price confirmation need a break of 120.86 (the Apr-13 high)”
May 14,2015
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United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change below forecasts (116B) in May 8: Actual (111B)
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May 14,2015
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RBA to trim rates by 25bp to a new record low of 1.75% in November - Nomura
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its official cash rate to a new record low in November this year, forecasts Andrew Ticehurst, economist at Nomura.
Key Quotes:
"As we turn our attention to the second half of the year and consider recent economic and market developments, both in Australia and abroad, we now believe it is appropriate to add a rate cut to our H2 cash rate profile,"
"The next real window for an RBA cut is likely August, and we currently assign a 40% to 50% probability to a move at this time,"
"We forecast a 25bp easing in November, which would take the Australian cash rate to a fresh record low of 1.75%."
"Moreover, given concerns about the strength of the Australian property market and the build up of household debt, a monetary loosing implies by the exchange rate would have been particularly welcome to the RBA which may otherwise have had to cut rates more aggressively."
May 15,2015
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US empire statement manufacturing survey expected to be strong – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the key data releases ahead in the US, expecting the May Empire State Manufacturing Survey to print a stronger number, Industrial production to remain flat, and Consumer confidence to have stabilized in May.
Key Quotes
“Today the May Empire State Manufacturing survey will be reported. April's -1.2 reading was the weakest since December. New orders showed the biggest decline since January 2013. Employment deteriorated, while inventories increased. A stronger report is expected for May.”
“Separately, April industrial production is expected to be flat after a 0.6% decline in March. Industrial output has fallen in three of the past four months. This is partly a function of the energy sector and utilities. Manufacturing itself snapped a three-month steak of no gains with a 0.1% rise in March. A 0.2% gain is expected in April.”
“University of Michigan's preliminary May consumer confidence will also be reported. Sentiment remained at elevated levels in April and is expected to have stabilized in May.”
“The inflation expectations may draw some interested after softening in April. The Fed has recently put more emphasis on the survey results than the market-based measures of inflation expectations.”
May 15,2015
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Risky assets increasingly sensitive to Fed rate expectations – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Strategists at BofA-Merrill Lynch, explain that correlations imply that stock and credit markets tend to underperform when market expectations for a Fed rate hike turns hawkish, and vice versa.
Key Quotes
“Risky assets have become highly sensitive to Fed policy expectations recently. Although stock and bond returns are normally negatively correlated, the 3m correlation between daily returns on S&P and 2y UST note has turned positive and has reached levels last seen during the "taper tantrum" of 2013, and during the start and end of the previous hiking cycle in mid-2004 and mid-2006, respectively. The correlation between high-yield CDX spreads and 2y UST rate has also increased recently.”
“The sign of the correlations imply stock and credit markets tend to underperform when the market expects a more hawkish Fed, and vice versa.”
“The current elevated stock-bond returns correlation at about +40% was previously seen only when investors expected an earlier Fed turning point. For example, the correlation reached today's level in 2004 only after the Fed started hiking in June 2004. Similarly, the market pulled the expected timing of Fed hikes earlier by about eight months during the taper tantrum of 2013. This is not the case this time.”
“If anything, the OIS market has pushed the perceived timing of Fed hikes further in time to late 2015 or early 2016 (depending on assumptions about the level of the effective fed funds rate after the first hike). This suggests the underlying sensitivity of risky assets to Fed policy is greater than it has been historically, and it may increase to unprecedented highs if the Fed signals hikes this year.”
May 15,2015
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US Industrial production declines for fifth consecutive month in April
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday showed the US industrial production in April fell for the fifth straight month.
Output adjusted for season variations contracted 0.3% in April, beating the forecast of a 0.1% rise. The previous month’s figure stands unrevised at -0.6%. Manufacturing output was flat, with manufacturing ex-Auto falling 0.1%. Mining and utility output also declined last month. Capacity utilization dipped to 78.2% from 78.6% in March, indicating low cost pressure on goods prices.
May 15,2015
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Australian rates might fall to 1.5% - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Dales, Chief Australia & New Zealand Economist, notes that the Australian budget lends support to the view that RBA might cut rates further to 1.5%.
Key Quotes
“The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Treasurer appear to be playing tennis with the economy. RBA Governor Stevens has already cut interest rates to 2.0% and hinted that he would like fiscal policy to provide more help. In last week’s Budget, Treasurer Hockey ignored this plea and left the economy facing a large fiscal squeeze. The ball is now back in the RBA’s court. Although we don’t expect any immediate action, the Budget lends some support to our view that rates may yet fall to 1.5%.”
“The minutes of the RBA’s May policy meeting, which will be released on Tuesday, are unlikely to hint that further interest rate cuts are in the pipeline. That said, it wasn’t until the month after it cut rates in February that the Bank suggested that another cut might be needed. As such, we would warn against reading too much into what might appear to be a relatively hawkish release.”
May 15,2015
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USD/CAD in highs near 1.2070
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is appreciating further on Friday vs. its Canadian counterpart, taking USD/CAD to session tops near 1.2070.
USD/CAD stronger despite US data
The pair reacted positively in spite of both US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization have missed estimates during April, contracting 0.3% inter-month and falling to 78.2%, respectively.
On the Canadian side, Manufacturing Shipments surprised to the upside expanding at a monthly pace of 2.9%, largely reverting February’s 1.7% contraction and surpassing the 0.1% gain forecasted.
USD/CAD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is gaining 0.61% at 1.2056 with the next hurdle at 1.2100 (psychological level) ahead of 1.2107 (high May 12) and then 1.2200 (psychological level). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.1920 (low May 14) would open the door to 1.1900 (psychological level) and then 1.1836 (low Jan.12).
May 15,2015
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German ZEW index drops in May, but economy outlook still positive – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Carsten Brzeski of ING, reviews the German ZEW index data release and further comments on the economic outlook, maintaining a positive stance on German growth.
Key Quotes
“Today’s ZEW index shows that German investors have lost parts of their earlier optimism. In May, the headline index dropped for the second straight month to 41.9, from 53.3 in April. This was the strongest monthly drop since August last year. At the same time, the current assessment component dropped for the first time since October last year and stands now at 65.7, from 70.2 in April. Despite today’s drop, both components remain far above their historical averages.”
“In our view, there are still very few arguments in favour of changing our positive take on the German economy. In fact, even if the external tailwinds have subsided somewhat, they are still there. Just to put latest developments into perspective: compared with their average value of the last 12 months, bond yields are currently still some 20bp lower, the euro some 10% weaker and oil prices almost 30% cheaper. Still sufficient to give the economy a cool breezy boost.”
“Moreover, domestic fundamentals remain sound and particularly consumption should support growth in the coming months.”
May 19,2015
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US housing starts and building permits data preview – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team previews the US data releases today – US housing starts and building permits, noting that consensus expects both to stage a recovery.
Key Quotes
“The North American session features April housing starts and permits. This sector had been undermined by the weather, especially in the February. A small recovery was seen in March, and a stronger recovery is expected in April.”
“Permits, a leading indicator, have held up better. The Q1 monthly average was 1068. The Q4 14 monthly average was 1070. The consensus expects April permits to have risen to 1064.”
“That said, the economic bounce back in Q2 has thus far not been very impressive, and not on par with last year’s recovery after the Q1 contraction.”
May 19,2015
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USD Index set to resume its bull trend – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - MacNeil Curry, CFA, CMT, Technical Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, views that USD Index looks likely to resume its bull trend towards 106.00.
Key Quotes
“The US $ Index looks to be in the final stages of its multi-month correction. Into 92.43, we look for basing and a resumption of its long-term uptrend toward 106.00. Bulls need a break of 95.51 to say that the correction is done and the bull trend has resumed.”
May 19,2015
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It’s so confusing that whenever there is something good happening the time fly, but the moment something bad is happening, it’s just never ending period, so that’s really upsetting thing and makes a person really frustrated, so if we want to be successful then we must overcome these things and stop been frustrated over every small thing.

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USD/CAD needs to clear 1.22/1.2350 for a visit to 1.25 – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - USD/CAD needs to overcome the 1.22/1.2350 band in order to extend the upside towards 1.25 initially, according to analysts at JP Morgan.
Key Quotes
“For the short term setup, the recent breakdown below the critical 1.2350 support zone and range lows from January March maintains the current downside risks in line with the broad USD corrective phase”.
“Moreover, the follow through below the 1.1988/33 zone (38.2% retracement from 2014) raises the risk that a new consolidation is forming below the March peak”.
“In turn, the focus has shifted to the critical 1.18/1.17 zone. This area includes the 50% retracement and uptrendline from the 2014 lows, as well as the 200-day moving average”.
“Given the current oversold setup and potential bullish momentum divergences, this area is a likely area for a retracement”.
“Note that the 1.22/1.2350 levels will now define whether a more sustained retrenchment to this corrective phase can develop. Above would target the 1.2500 area (76.4% retrenchment) which should determine whether the pair can retest the March peak”.
May 20,2015
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Combination of factors leads to another bad day in crude markets – Malcolm Graham-Wood
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood comments on oil market performance and highlights the key factors behind yesterday's dismal performance.
Key Quotes
“Another bad day in the crude markets yesterday as a combination of continued dollar strength, absorption of Saudi export numbers and profit taking in WTI as the June contract expired. Indeed volumes of the next month July contract were noticeably higher than usual as traders saw more than usual rolling over of positions, not surprising considering the massive amount of open long positions at the moment.”
“Upward pressures at the moment might come from the better than expected GDP figures from Japan at 2.4%, a possible strike in the UK North Sea as the GMB and Unite unions protest about new working conditions and inventory reports from the US ahead of the Memorial Day holiday weekend.”
“The inventory figures are beginning to help out a bit, last night the API numbers showed another draw, this time of 5.2m barrels against a consensus of only 1m which shows that the analysts aren’t getting any better…Lets see how the EIA numbers look tonight.”
May 20,2015
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GBP/USD forming a bearish reversal – EW-Forecast
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Gregor Horvat of EW-Forecast, uses Elliott wave analysis to give the technical outlook for GBP/USD.
Key Quotes
“On GBPUSD we are looking A-B-C rally from April lows; a zigzag pattern that has a 5-3-5 structure which now appears complete after a sharp turn down in the last 48 hours from 1.5818 which seems to be an impulse in progress down in wave 1/A.”
“As such, we see much lower levels ahead as pair should make minimum three waves down but ideally market will make a new big bearish impulse, back to April lows.”
May 20,2015
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GBP/USD rebounds to 1.5550
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Fresh bids took control of the GBP/USD pair as it broke above 1.5520-1.5530 levels, pushing it to a fresh daily high of 1.5562 in the early US session.
USD being sold ahead of Fed minutes
The US dollar is being sold in anticipation of dovish Fed minutes. The markets expect policymakers to hint at at a possible delay in the rate hike due to weakness in the economy. The growing dovish expectations are evident from the drop in the US treasury yields. The 10-year yield currently trades 1.4 basis points lower at 2.248%, resulting into USD weakness.
The pair currently trades at 1.555, with eyes set on the 38.2% Fib retracement of 1.7190-1.4564 located at 1.5568.
GBP/USD Technical Levels
The immediate resistance is located at 1.5568, above which the pair could rise to 1.5637 (10-DMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.5517 could send the pair lower to 1.5420 (200-DMA).
May 20,2015
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AUD/USD aims to the low-0.70s by year-end – JP Morgan
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Divergent monetary policies from the RBA and the Fed could relegate the pair to test the low-0.70 by the end of the current year, noted analysts at JP Morgan.
Key Quotes
“Movements in the real policy rate spread between Australia and the US have been an important driver of AUD/USD moves over the last decade”.
“50bp of tightening from the Fed in 2015, combined with iron ore prices moving back down from +US60/tn to around US$50/tn is consistent with AUD/USD in the low 70s by year-end”.
“However, on the rates side, with the move being US-driven, our view of a lower AUD/USD relies on the US economy’s 1Q stumble proving temporary”.
May 20,2015
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US initial jobless claims rise more than expected, 4-week avg at 15-year low
FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US labor department data released on Thursday showed the first time applications for unemployment benefits rose to 274K, bearing the estimate of 271K in the last week, although the four-week average continued to remain at a 15-year low.
The initial jobless claims increased by 9,000 to 274,000 in the week ended May 16. The four-week average of claims, which provides a more accurate picture of the labor market strength, decreased to 266,250, lowest since April 15, 2000, in the period ended May 16 from 271,750.
Meanwhile, the continuing claims decreased by 12,000 to 2.21 million in the week ended May 9, the lowest level since November 2000.
May 21,2015
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EUR/JPY sold at 135.30; back to 134.60
FXStreet (Cocoa) - The Euro is currently falling against the Japanese Yen and after losing 70 pips from 135.30 in the American morning, the EUR/JPY is now testing 134.60 area. Euro is under pressure amid mixed European data and strong USD.
Currently, EUR/JPY is trading at 134.68, up 0.05% on the day, having posted a daily high at 135.38 and low at 134.22. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bearish.
EUR/JPY levels
If the Euro extends declines beyond 134.60 against the Yen, it will find supports at 134.20, 134.00 and 133.50. To the upside, resistances are at 135.00, 135.30 and 135.70.
May 21,2015
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EUR/GBP breaches 0.7100
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - EUR/GBP has sharply reverted the initial positive tone and is now re-visiting multi-week lows in sub-0.7100 levels.
EUR/GBP in 3-month lows
The solid pace of the pound is dragging the European cross below the 0.7100 handle, levels last seen in mid-March. The sterling is gathering further traction in response to the very auspicious results from UK retail sales during the last month, advancing beyond expectations.
In addition MPC M.Weale said that declining oil prices could have a negative impact on consumer prices while they could help lifting economic growth. In any case, he added that the effects should be gone in a couple of years.
EUR/GBP key levels
The cross is now losing 0.62% at 0.7098 with the immediate support at 0.7091 (low May 21) ahead of 0.7036 (low Mar.12) and then 0.7015 (2015 low Mar.11). On the flip side, the initial up barrier lines up at 0.7169 (high May 21) ahead of 0.7196 (10-d MA) and finally 0.7232 (high May 19).
May 21,2015
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GBP/USD: technicals providing an early warning sign – Scotiabank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Eric Theoret, CFA, CMT, Currency Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that GBP/USD trades weak post comments from BoE MPC member Shafik, while the turn in MACD provides an early warning sign for traders.
Key Quotes
“GBP is weak, underperforming ahead of the NA session in response to comments from BoE MPC member Shafik. The comments reiterated a neutral tone of patience, highlighting expectations of a gradual pace of hikes while also pushing back on expectations of balance sheet adjustment in the absence of a ‘materially higher’ policy rate.”
“GBPUSD short-term technicals: bullish-neutral—momentum indicators have softened with the turn in the MACD providing an early warning sign. Resistance over the past two sessions has been observed around 1.5700 with limited movement above the 9 day MA (1.5656).”
May 22,2015
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US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower – Danske
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Danske Bank Research Team previews the key data releases in the US in the next week.
Key Quotes
“We expect US Q1 GDP growth to be revised lower over the coming week, due primarily to exports and inventories.”
“We expect the underlying upward trend in the US housing market to continue and we look for a rebound in both new home sales and pending home sales in April.”
May 22,2015
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GBP/USD hits 2-week low weighed by US data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD resumed the fall and hit a fresh 2-week low as the dollar strengthened on the back of US durable goods data. GBP/USD dropped to a low of 1.5359, last seen May 8, and it was last trading at 1.5380, 0.56% below its opening price.
US durable goods orders dropped 0.5% in April versus a fall of 0.4% expected. However, March durable goods orders rise was revised to 5.1% from a previously reported 4.4% gain. Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.5%, matching expectations.
Separated data showed US home price index rose by 0.9% in March and 5.0% YoY.
The dollar resumed its advance on Tuesday as investors are coming back after the holiday and digesting Fed Yellen's comments. On Friday, Fed Chairwoman said it would be “appropriate at some point this year” to start raising rates. Markets are regaining confidence the Fed will act sooner, after a soft series of Q1 data sparked skepticism.
May 26,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates
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USD/MX off highs on data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is recovering part of the ground lost o the greenback in early trade, now dragging USD/MXN to the 15.28 region.
USD/MXN testing 2-week tops
The pair keeps the trade in the upper end of the weekly range after US Durable Goods Orders excluding the Transportation sector rose more than previously estimated during the last month, bolstering further the upbeat momentum around the greenback.
In addition, Mexican retail sales surprised to the upside during March, advancing 0.2% inter-month and 5.5% over the last twelve months.
USD/MXN relevant levels
The pair is now gaining 0.23% at 15.2914 with the next resistance at 15.4297 (high May 12) followed by 15.4838 (high May 5) and finally 15.5935 (high May 1). On the other hand, a breakdown of 15.1843 (low May 22) would aim for 15.1328 (low May 21) and then 15.0737 (low May 19).
May 26,2015
OctaFX.Com News Updates
Trade with OctaFX - the Most Reliable Forex broker!
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