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EUR/USD in highs on German data
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD attempted to follow through the 1.3750 level post-German data on Thursday, printing at the same time fresh daily highs.
EUR/USD locked within 1.3720-1.3750
At least the pair woke up from the congestion pattern near 1.3730 after German Factory Orders expanded 1.2% inter-month and 8.4% in a year to January, surpassing previous surveys. “All in all, today’s data send two important messages for the German growth outlook. The near term looks very rosy and industrial production should gain further momentum. To maintain this momentum into the longer term, however, the economy needs more domestic demand”, assessed Carsten Brzeski, Analyst at ING Bank NV.
EUR/USD levels to watch
The pair is now up 0.08% at 1.3741 with the next hurdle at 1.3749 (high Mar.5) followed by 1.3782 (high Mar.4) and finally 1.3793 (high Mar.3). On the flip side, a break below 1.3707 (low Mar.5) would aim for 1.3703 (21-d MA) and then 1.3694 (low Feb.28).
Mar 06, 2014
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EUR/GBP rises after BoE
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/GBP reached fresh daily highs as the British pound weakened across the board after the Bank of England decided to keep its policy unchanged and its interest rate at a record low of 0.5% for fifth year, as widely expected.
The EUR/GBP jumped to the 0.8230 zone but the 10-day SMA offered resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 0.8220 area, recording a 0.1% gain ahead of next key event, the ECB decision at 12:45GMT.
EUR/GBP technical levels
In terms of technical levels, if the EUR/GBP breaks decisively above 0.8230, next resistances are seen at 0.8246 (Mar 5 high) and 0.8259 (Mar 4 high). On the flip side, supports could be found at 0.8205/0.8200 (Mar 6 low/psychological level) and 0.8191 (Feb 28 low).
Mar 06, 2014
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US Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) fell from 45.107K to 41.835K in February
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Mar 06, 2014
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EUR/USD spiked to 1.3780 on ECB
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The EUR/USD is now back to the 1.3760 region after a brief jump to the boundaries of 1.3780 on unchanged ECB.
EUR/USD propped up by ECB
The ECB finally did not deliver any change in its current monetary policy, disappointing investors who where expecting a 10-15 bps repo rate cut or even moving towards negative deposit rates. Next on tap will be the press conference by President Draghi, which will be closely watched by traders. “We expect the EUR to trade relatively strongly through today's ECB policy decision and press conference, most notably versus the USD. Topside resistance seen at 1.3740-80, while a confirmed break of 1.3815 would add to upside momentum”, suggested Paul Robson, Senior FX Strategist at RBS.
EUR/USD levels to watch
The pair is now up 0.18% at 1.3754 with the next hurdle at 1.3782 (high Mar.4) and then 1.3793 (high Mar.3). On the flip side, a break below 1.3707 (low Mar.5) would aim for 1.3703 (21-d MA) and then 1.3694 (low Feb.28).
Mar 06, 2014
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Flash: EUR/USD pressuring highs ahead of US Non Farm Payrolls - FXStreet





FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst notes that as expected, markets had been in consolidation mode ever since Asian opening, waiting for the release of US Non Farm Payroll data.


Key Quotes



“The EUR/USD has remained steady above the broken trend line coming from the all time high of 1.6038, and even completed a pullback to it before bouncing to reach fresh year highs around 1.3882.”


“The strong upward acceleration following ECB decision to leave economic policy unchanged suggest the pair is ready for another leg higher, probably towards fresh highs beyond 1.3900,past December high, albeit cautious investors are rather waiting a confirmation of what is being largely suspected and rumored over the last few weeks: that the US employment sector remains subdue and therefore, the country’s economic recovery.”


“Given that picture, investors are now mostly waiting for a disappointing number to rush into buying mode and trigger a strong upward continuation, eyeing 1.3920 immediate short term resistance, ahead of key 1.4000 figure.”


“But what if the number overcomes expectations? In that case and only if the reading is well above the 150K expected, the dollar may get a temporal boost against the EUR, but buyers won’t hesitate to jump in on approaches to 1.3820 area first, and if this last is taken, around 1.3770.”







Mar 07, 2014

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USD/CAD capped by 1.1000
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The weakness surrounding the greenback plus the upbeat sentiment around the risk appetite is keeping the USD/CAD below the 1.100 psychological barrier so far.
USD/CAD supported at 1.0960
The pair found decent support in the area of weekly lows near 1.0960 on Thursday, managing to gather some steam and attempt an assault to 1.1000 during the European morning. The current rebound would be put to the test however, as February’s Payrolls are due later in the US economy (consensus expecting 149K) along with labour market data in Canada. “A less constructive mix of results (better US data, disappointing Canadian figures) needs to get USDCAD back through 1.1045 (40-day MA) to stabilize”, suggested Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities.
USD/CAD significant levels
The pair is now losing 0.01% at 1.0990 and the initial support aligns at 1.0955 (low Mar.6) followed by 1.0911 (low Feb.19) and then 1.0905 (low Jan.16). On the upside, a breakout of 1.1046 (high Mar.6) would open the door to 1.1101 (high Mar.5) and finally 1.1118 (high Feb.5).
Mar 07, 2014
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Canada Unemployment Rate meets forecasts 7% in February
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Mar 07, 2014
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EMEA EM Express: Russian ruble falling for fourth running week on Crimea developments
FXStreet (Łódź) - Ukraine continues to remain in focus in Europe, following the decision of Crimea's parliament to carry out a referendum among the region's residents on whether they want to join Russia or remain part of Ukraine. Sanctions on Russia announced yesterday by the EU and the US don't seem to discourage Putin from declarations that the authorities in Kiev's decisions on the region are illegitimate.”
It was also reported that the Russian military has been carrying out massive drills not far from the border with Ukraine, while the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitors sent to Crimea were prevented from entering by unidentified armed men for the second day.
The markets have stabilized somewhat after the EU announced that it would provide aid for Ukraine of at least 11 billion euros. Ukrainian bonds were volatile late on after Kiev suggested that it is considering debt restructuring. In the opinion of the Deutsche Bank Chief EMEA Economist’s however: „under an IMF-led external assistance package, a hard restructuring (e.g. notional haircuts) is unlikely to be necessary given Ukraine's relatively low level of government debt (about 43% of GDP).”
Economic data
The Czech Statistical Office year-on-year Q4 GDP data released on Thursday showed a 1.3% increase compared to the 1.3% drop seen the previous month.
Hungarian Industrial Output grew by 6.1% in January on an annual basis, down from the 6.8% increase registered in December. Month-on-month it jumped 3.1%.
Hungary's PMI data as well as confidence indicators have also been improving and Andras Balatoni from ING says that even though GDP growth is expected to slow down it should still “stay in positive territory”.
The National Bank of Poland released FX Reserves numbers which point to a drop to €75.90B at the end of February from €78.50B.
Meanwhile, the Gross Gold & Forex Reserves released on Friday by the South African Reserve Bank for February revealed a rise to $50.137B, while the Net Gold & Forex Reserves stood at $45.337B.
Technicals
The ruble weakened by 0.4% 42.5630 against the Russia's central bank euro-dollar basket on the news of the Crimean parliaments vote in favor of the region becoming part of the Russian Federation, heading towards a fourth weekly decline.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 67.5537 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth is expanding at 5332 pips, with ATR (14) expanding at 4046 pips. The 1D 200 SMA is at 33.1000, while the 1D 20 EMA is neutral at 35.6278.
The USD/UAH daily FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: USD/CAD longer-term, bullish – TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at TD Securities explained that the USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the USD/CAD.
Key Quotes:
“USD/CAD’s slide below support the mid 1.10 area (trend and 40-day MA at 1.1047) put a negative spin on the short-term chart yesterday but the rebound in the market today should draw a line under the prospect of an extended move down in funds”.
“The market has recovered yesterday’s loses and the move below noted support points now looks like a “false break”.
“Longer-term patterns are encouraging from our USD/CAD-bullish perspective. The market should close the week well off the lows, suggesting a strong rejection of the mid/upper 1.09 zone. The bullish weekly reversal (like the daily signal, above) from mid-February remains intact, as does the broader bull channel. Trend momentum on the longer-term charts remains bullish”.
Mar 07, 2014
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Flash: Turning monetary policy cycles - Rabobank





FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that on March 12 the market is expecting the RBNZ to be the first developed world central bank to hike interest rates in the current economic cycle.


Key Quotes:


“If is chooses to tighten policy the move will focus attention on what is likely to be a gradual wind down of extraordinary policy stimulus from major central banks in the coming years. Even so, a RBNZ rate hike would be in stark contrast to the policies currently being followed by other major central banks”.


“While the Fed is tapering the size of its monthly asset purchases programme, QE looks set to remain in place in the US at least until the end of the year”.


“In Japan, there is residual speculation that policy settings could yet be loosened further and, while the ECB’s steady policy decision this month appears to lessen the likelihood of further policy measures this year, disinflationary risks suggest it is still too early to completely rule further stimulation for the EZ economy. That said, if growth accelerates in the developed world in 2014 in line with the consensus view, the trend of monetary policy easing that still dominates the most major central banks could be in its dying throes”.


“The market is currently expecting the BoE to adjust interest rates higher in Q2 2015 and by the end of next year rate hikes may have been announced by the Riksbank, BoC, RBA and even the Fed and ECB. Even so, there is reason to expect that caution will dominate the outlook for developed world central banks for some time”






Mar 07, 2014

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Session recap: USD thrown back into the mix





FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/JPY has been a mover yet again with this time being the US session bringing the glory to the dollar through Non Farm Payrolls surprising positively to the upside. The dollar has managed to claim back some lost ground against it's peers into the close of the week.


EUR/USD is finishing up nicely bid on the week reaching the weeks high on today’s business at 1.3916. The US economy added 175K jobs during February, surpassing forecasts at 149K and up from January’s 129K (revised from 113K).


USD/JPY took off onto the 103 handle again this week extending yesterdays rally to a high of 103.78 bringing in targets for 104.45 en route to the more important 105.45/50 recent high and long term Fibo.


GBP/USD was held up on EUR/GBP demand but still was equipped to manage a high of 1.6788 before the Non Farm Payrolls cut those gains down to size and took the pound back into territory of the 1.6720 daily support.


Main headlines


Non Farm Payrolls rising higher than expectations


Canadian Unemployment in-line 7%


US Consumer Credit Change rising $13.7B






Mar 08, 2014

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China Consumer Price Index (MoM) registered at 0.5%, missing expectations (0.8%) in February
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Mar 09, 2014
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China Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with forecasts (2%) in February
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Mar 09, 2014
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USD/CAD testing 1.1100
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The USD/CAD is now deflating to the area around the key support at 1.1100 on Monday, down from overnight peaks near 1.1130.
USD/CAD surrenders gains
After bottoming out in the mid-1.09s last week, spot found the much-needed oxygen in the auspicious Payrolls numbers for the month of February, climbing to the boundaries of 1.1100 the figure in the wake of the release. Next on tap in the Canadian docket will be the Housing Starts, expected to increase at an annual pace of 190K during February. “For the time being, we expect 1.115 in USDCAD to firmly cap offers… we believe most of the USDCAD strength late last week was a classic relief rally in the USD, and mainly a function of how nervous FX investors were about a very weak US report – prior to the release of the data”, commented Stephen Gallo, European Head FX Strategy at BMO.
USD/CAD levels to watch
The pair is now up 0.04% at 1.1096 facing the next resistance at 1.1132 (high Mar.10) followed by 1.1148 (high Feb.28) and then 1.1160 (high Feb.27). On the flip side, a breach of 1.0998 (daily cloud top) would aim for 1.0955 (low Mar.6) and finally 1.0911 (low Feb.19).
Mar 10, 2014
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Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) beat expectations (185K) in February: 192.1K
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Mar 10, 2014
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Session Recap: GBP underperforms in quiet trade
FXStreet (Córdoba) - A quiet Monday session has seen major pairs in the FX market consolidating in recent ranges following Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.
The pound is underperforming, having fallen back below 1.6700 versus the dollar, triggering stops toward a 10-day low of 1.6625. The EUR/USD failed to hold above 1.3900 and entered a consolidation phase within 1.3860/1.3900. The USD/JPY holds above 103.00 while the AUD/USD is struggling around 0.9000.
There is no first-tier data scheduled during the New York session, which could see crosses extend consolidation during the next hours.
Main Headlines in Europe:
Flash: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Westpac
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence missed expectations (14) in March: 13.9
ECB's Noyer: Ending SMP sterilization among possible tools
Gold retreats around $1,340
Fed's Plosser expects US unemployment to fall to 6.2% by the end of 2014
Mar 10, 2014
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Carney: UK recovery picking up but BoE not growing complacent
FXStreet (Łódź) - Further into the testimony before the UK parliament's Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday, BoE governor Mark Carney assures that his decision on the rate hike timing would not be affected by the UK general election scheduled for May 2015.
Moreover, Carney says he expects a pick up in investment, which is crucial for spurring growth. He emphasizes that the strengthening of the UK economic recovery is evident in recent data, Nevertheless, he admits that the decrease in unemployment has slowed down somewhat. BoE is not complacent about the UK recovery, he says.
Meanwhile, MPC member David Miles assures that optimism among small and medium-sized firms in the UK has risen since he has joined the committee in 2009. He also adds that real wages could stop declining shortly.
“I think we’re getting to the point at which average wage settlements are moving above the rate of inflation,” he suggests.
Mar 11, 2014
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US Wholesale Inventories beat expectations (0.4%) in January: 0.6%
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Mar 11, 2014
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US Wholesale Inventories beat expectations (0.4%) in January: 0.6%
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Mar 11, 2014
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Gold testing 1,350 key level again
FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a resting day on Monday, the gold resumed its attack to the 1,350 area on Tuesday with the XAU/USD bouncing from yesterday's lows at 1,328 to test March 3, 4, 6 and 7 highs around 1,352 today.
The XAU/USD is currently trading around 1,345.73 0.46% positive on the day. "Gold has been trading sideways over the past ten days, and is clearly in search of new catalysts. There is a reluctance of aggressively push the market higher here considering the recent upside surprise”, commented the research team at UBS.
Gold levels
Above the 1,350 area, the gold would face resistances around 1,360 and 1,375. On the downside, the XAU/USD has supports at 1,328, 1,300 and 1,280.
Mar 11, 2014
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USD/CHF rejected on bullish attempts
FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD/CHF has been shunned at 0.8800 and is back onto the supporting line of the sideways channel around 0.8780.
USD/CHF had been trying to bounce off the 2012-2014 support line at 0.8751 which represents key support. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained, “Ideally we should see the currency pair stabilise around it but it is still in danger of giving way. Should the market stabilise here, a close above the downtrend line at 0.8897 is needed to alleviate immediate downside pressure. A daily chart close below Friday’s low at 0.8756 will target the 0.8568 October 2011 low”.
USD/CHF Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.8879, the 50 DMA is 0.8965 and the 200 DMA is 0.9138. RSI (14) reads 43.49. Supports are ascending from 0.8612, 0.8651, 0.8706 and 0.8756. Spot is 0.87879. Resistances are 0.8793, 0.8816, 0.8841 and 0.8861.
Mar 11, 2014
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AUD/USD drops to 0.9010
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now facing renewed selling interest, dragging the AUD/USD to the area of 0.9020/15.
AUD/USD capped at 0.9050
The pair remains in the positive ground however, following the risk trends and leaving behind poor Chinese data over the weekend and soft confidence releases from today’s NAB indices. “The close below $0.9080, which corresponds to both the 100-day moving average and the minimum retracement objective of the Aussie's slide since last October, warns of additional near-term losses. There is potential from a technical point of view back into the $0.9015-40 range. On the upside, the $0.9200 is an important psychological level and coincides with the 50% retracement objective of the slide”.
AUD/USD key levels
The pair is now losing 0.09% at 0.9013 with the next resistance at 0.9064 (high Mar.19) followed by 0.9135 (high Mar.7) and then 0.9152 (high Dec.11). On the flip side, a breakdown of 0.9012 (low Mar.10) would open the door to 0.8973 (low Mar.6) and finally 0.8934 (low Mar.5).
Mar 11, 2014
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AUD/USD drops to 0.9010
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now facing renewed selling interest, dragging the AUD/USD to the area of 0.9020/15.
AUD/USD capped at 0.9050
The pair remains in the positive ground however, following the risk trends and leaving behind poor Chinese data over the weekend and soft confidence releases from today’s NAB indices. “The close below $0.9080, which corresponds to both the 100-day moving average and the minimum retracement objective of the Aussie's slide since last October, warns of additional near-term losses. There is potential from a technical point of view back into the $0.9015-40 range. On the upside, the $0.9200 is an important psychological level and coincides with the 50% retracement objective of the slide”.
AUD/USD key levels
The pair is now losing 0.09% at 0.9013 with the next resistance at 0.9064 (high Mar.19) followed by 0.9135 (high Mar.7) and then 0.9152 (high Dec.11). On the flip side, a breakdown of 0.9012 (low Mar.10) would open the door to 0.8973 (low Mar.6) and finally 0.8934 (low Mar.5).
Mar 11, 2014
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Flash: GBP/USD: Fresh lows, more at sight – FXStreet
FXStreet (Córdoba) - Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that the GBP/USD broke below key 1.6600 support and as below this latter, the pair would remain vulnerable and could extend its decline to 1.6510.
Key Quotes
"Majors trade in between yesterday's ranges little changed from Tuesday update albeit dollar grinds higher mostly on sentiment: concerns over Chinese growth had been the main focus this week in absence of other economic news. What started as a rumor was finally confirmed yesterday as the country experienced its first-ever corporate debt default, and the idea of more coming is what leads the mild risk off ruling the forex board".
"For weakened GBP/USD, that translates into a lower low, with the pair flirting with 1.6580 at the time being, and maintaining the bearish tone in its 4 hours chart, as 20 SMA gains bearish slope above current price and indicators turned back south after correcting oversold readings".
"Price has not only accelerated below the key Fibonacci support around 1.6600, but is also breaking through its 200 EMA in the mentioned time frame, further sign of a bearish continuation: the pair will likely extend now towards 1.6550 as long as pullbacks fail to regain 1.6600, with a break below it pointing for an approach to 1.6510".
"A price acceleration above 1.6610 should see price advance up to 1.6650 strong static resistance, but sellers will likely jump in around it, preventing the pair from advancing further".
Mar 12, 2014
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USD/CAD reaches 2-week highs
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD accelerated higher triggering stops and reached a 2-week high at the beginning of the American session.
The Loonie as other currencies link to commodities weakened Wednesday amid concerns over China and lower copper and crude oil prices. The USD/CAD broke above previous weekly highs around 1.1130, and rose to a high of 1.1153 in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 1.1145 zone, recording a 0.4% gain on the day.
USD/CAD technical outlook
"Support is at 1.0955, as long as this level holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.0182 (Sept 19, 2013 low), one more rise to 1.1500 area is still possible after consolidation", said Franco Shao, analyst at ForexCycle.com. "Resistance is at 1.1192, a break above this level will signal resumption of the uptrend".
"However, a breakdown below 1.0955 support will indicate that the uptrend from 1.0182 had completed at 1.1224 already, then the following downward movement could bring price back to 1.0700 zone", the analyst added.
Mar 12, 2014
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GBP/USD bounces off 1-month low





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD bounced off 1-month low and erased daily losses at the beginning of the American session.


The GBP/USD underperformed during the European session and broke below the 1.6600 mark, triggering stops and falling to a low of 1.6568. However, bears lacked determination to take the 1.6550 support area, allowing the Cable to bounce back to neutral territory. At time of writing, the GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6610 zone, virtually unchanged since opening.


GBP/USD technical outlook


"The recent slide to 1.6595 was a test of 1.6580 support zone, but the lack of a significant rebound so far signals, that the bias remains negative, for another leg downwards, to 1.6480 before major reversal", says Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "Crucial intraday resistance lies at 1.6653".





Mar 12, 2014

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AUD lower on risk-off, catches small bounce





FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD caught a bounce when the pair reached 0.8920 and is trading back into the 0.8960’s.


Strategists at TD Securities noted that the AUD/USD risk appetite weakened yesterday as base metals prices continued to slide; “Chinese credit concerns are at play here as investors and specs worry that credit pressures could pop the bubble of trades using excess copper supplies in China as collateral. Copper is getting hammered again today and the clear loser on the session is the AUD (again), which reflected the Chinese nexus for most things Australian”.


AUD/USD Levels


The 20 DMA is 0.9001, the 50 DMA is 0.8924 and the 200 DMA is 0.9160. RSI (14) reads 57.66. Supports are ascending from 0.8873, 0.8891, 0.8909 and 0.8933. Spot is 0.8957 while resistances are 0.9010, 0.9055, 0.9064 and 0.9135.






Mar 12, 2014

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EUR/USD edges lower after upbeat US data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD edged a tad lower at the begging of the American session, pulling back from 2-year highs, after data showed US jobless claims and retail sales beat consensus.
US jobless claims fell to 315,000 last week versus 320,000 expected, while February retail sales rose 0.3% versus 0.2% forecast, adding to the upbeat sentiment regarding the US economy and boosting the dollar. The EUR/USD pulled back after data but the dip has been contained by the 1.3935 area so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.3940, recording a 0.3% gain Thursday.
EUR/USD technical perspective
From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet notes that a break above 1.3966 (daily high) should lead to a continuation towards the key 1.4000 figure today. "If price however gives up below 1.3910, the risk turns to the downside and the pair may extend the bearish move down to 1.3850/70 price zone in the short term", the analyst says.
Mar 13, 2014
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GBP/USD back below 1.6700
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Better data releases from the US economy pushed the GBP/USD back bellow the 1.6700 handle on Thursday.
GBP/USD retreats from highs
The pair eased from the vicinity of weekly tops near 1.6720 to the boundaries of 1.6680 after US retail sales came in on the stronger side, advancing 0.3% inter-month in both the headline print and excluding the automobile sector. Further data showed Initial Claims dropped to 315K and import prices gained 0.9% in February. “The GBP reportedly remain a victim of EUR-GBP plays on Wednesday and if the 1.6600 region is breached, expect further soul searching towards the 55-day MA (1.6541)”, observed Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank.
GBP/USD levels to watch
As of writing the pair is up 0.41% at 1.6687 with the next resistance at 1.6700 (psychological level) followed by 1.6745 (high Mar.10) and then 1.6785 (high Mar.7). On the flip side, a breach of 1.6607 (low Mar.13) would clear the way to 1.6568 (low Mar.12) and finally 1.6500 (psychological level).
Mar 13, 2014
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GBP/USD back below 1.6700
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Better data releases from the US economy pushed the GBP/USD back bellow the 1.6700 handle on Thursday.
GBP/USD retreats from highs
The pair eased from the vicinity of weekly tops near 1.6720 to the boundaries of 1.6680 after US retail sales came in on the stronger side, advancing 0.3% inter-month in both the headline print and excluding the automobile sector. Further data showed Initial Claims dropped to 315K and import prices gained 0.9% in February. “The GBP reportedly remain a victim of EUR-GBP plays on Wednesday and if the 1.6600 region is breached, expect further soul searching towards the 55-day MA (1.6541)”, observed Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank.
GBP/USD levels to watch
As of writing the pair is up 0.41% at 1.6687 with the next resistance at 1.6700 (psychological level) followed by 1.6745 (high Mar.10) and then 1.6785 (high Mar.7). On the flip side, a breach of 1.6607 (low Mar.13) would clear the way to 1.6568 (low Mar.12) and finally 1.6500 (psychological level).
Mar 13, 2014
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US Business Inventories meets expectations (0.4%) in January
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Mar 13, 2014
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EMEA EM Express: Markets closely watching situation in Ukraine ahead of Crimea vote
FXStreet (Łódź) - Concerns over Ukraine´s capacity for exports in the face of a possible escalation of the conflict with Russia, prices of wheat and corn surged for the third running day. Ukraine is the third largest exporter of corn and the sixth largest exporter of wheat, so grain traders observe the developments in the country closely, for signs of any disruptions in the shipments. Up until today no such problems have been noted.
Yesterday EU leaders outlined possible sanctions against Russia, including travel bans and asset freezes, which would be imposed if the referendum on Crimea was carried out against international opposition. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that they would come into force on Monday if Russia still refused to negotiate.
In the afternoon US President Barack Obama met with Ukrainian PM Arseny Yatseniuk in the White House to discuss ways of handling the situation in Crimea peacefully. Yatseniuk expressed his readiness to hold talks with Moscow on “how to increase the rights of (the) autonomous republic of Crimea, starting with taxes and ending with other aspects like language issues."
Economic data
On Thursday, South Africa´s Statistics Head Office informed that on an annual basis Manufacturing Production rose by 2.5% in January, down from the 2.8% increase the previous month.
On Wednesday South Africa also published current account numbers for the fourth quarter of 2014. The year-on-year seasonally adjusted data was better than forecast showing a 5.1% GDP deficit, up from the 6.4% GDP gap in the previous quarter. Therefore, the current account defict for the entire 2013 stands now at 5.8% of GDP.
In the opinion of Dorothee Gasser from ING: “All in all the release is rather a positive, but it may be early stages to pin down South Africa for a sustained c/a improvement for 2014 following the 4Q13 release.”
“Trade dynamics remained unsupportive (import growth still outpacing exports) and the outlook for metal prices remain clouded by the Chinese landing scenario. South Africa external funding will in absolute terms remain large in the year ahead, inducing volatility risks still for the ZAR over the period.”
Meanwhile, according to data released on Thursday, Russia´s Central Bank reserves were seen at 494.60B on March 7 following 493.30B the week before.
Technicals
Russia´s stock market and the ruble are suffering under the weight of the Ukranian crisis. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) fell by 2.6% to 1,274.21 at the Moscow close on Wednesday, while the ruble dropped for the fourth day against the central bank’s dollar-euro basket. Meanwhile, USD/RUB closed at 36.43 on Wednesday.
The daily FXStreet Trend Index for USD/RUB was slightly bullish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 71.3974 at the last close. Daily 2-StDev Volatility Bandwidth was expanding at 205 pips, with ATR (14) shrinking at 303 pips. The 1D 200 SMA is at 33.1891, while the 1D 20 EMA at 35.8931.
The USD/UAH closed at 9.28 and its daily FXStreet Trend Index was slightly bearish, with the OB/OS Index neutral. RSI was neutral at 52.6767.
Mar 13, 2014
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US Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) missed expectations in February: Actual -0.2%.
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Mar 14, 2014
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USD/JPY hits fresh lows after US data
FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY extended losses and retested March lows at the beginning of the New York session after data showed US producer prices declined in February.
US producer prices fell 0.1% last month and advanced 0.9% over the last twelve months, missing expectations of 0.2% and 1.2% respectively. Core prices, which strips the food and energy costs, fell 0.2% on a monthly basis and rose at an annual pace of 1.1%. The USD/JPY hit a low of 101.20 and it was last at 101.30, recording a 0.5% loss on the day.
The pair came under pressure this week amid market anxiety about Russia and Ukraine, pulling back from a post nonfarm payrolls high of 103.75.
USD/JPY technical levels
In terms of technical levels, if the USD/JPY breaks below 101.20, next supports are seen at 101.00 (psychological level) and 100.75 (Feb 4 low). On the flip side, resistances could be found at 101.87 (Mar 14 high), 102.13 (100-day SMA) and 102.85 (Mar 13 high).
Mar 14, 2014
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US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed forecasts (82) in March: Actual (79.9)
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Mar 14, 2014
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Flash: Draghi reveals a euro target – HSBC




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Strategists at HSBC sight 1.40 as a soft target and 1.45 as a hard target, noting that the ECB stepped up its rhetoric when the euro was about to breach 1.40.


Key Quotes:


“This is no freak of nature. This deliberate stance is because the ECB

needs to stop a move to 1.45 and beyond that could cause it to miss its

mandate”.


“Draghi has admitted that the EUR is becoming "increasingly relevant" in the central bank's assessment of price stability, but also argues that the ECB does not target the exchange rate. However, this stance is slowly being unpicked especially as the move has been slow and volatility is not a factor. The secret is being revealed -- the level matters. If the EUR continues to rise, it threatens their mandate and on this basis it's open season”.



“ The ECB's mandate is inflation close to, but below, 2%. The current staff

forecasts suggest inflation will be back to 1.7% by Q4 16 -- in line with the ECB's mandate. Hence the ECB is not worried about disinflation”.


“Importantly this assumes an unchanged exchange rate, or around 1.36 on

EUR/USD. Now the question is -- what would the exchange rate have to move

to make them worry about missing their inflation target?”.


“Draghi said each 10% permanent effective exchange rate appreciation lowers inflation by around 40 to 50 basis points. Realistically, any exchange rate move would likely have to point to inflation being sub-1.5% for it to be worthy of

action. So what exchange rate level would get inflation from their 1.7%

forecast to below 1.5%?”.


“Using the ECB's ready reckoner, it would point to a pain threshold of 1.45. Most likely, the ECB recognises that were EUR to gain a foothold above 1.40, it could easily push on to 1.45. Better to draw the line at 1.40 than wait for 1.45”.






Mar 14, 2014

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Gold finishing up at highs for the week




FXStreet (Guatemala) - Gold is finishing up through $1,380 and strategists at TD Securities noted the rally extended further this week and the rally is starting to put some important resistance levels under a little more pressure.


“Pullback resistance off the May 2012 low/August 2013 high at 1393.30 may be tested next week and, just above there, the August 2013 high (and potential double bottom trigger) at 1433 looms very large. So far since gold stabilized last year, the market has failed to make a new, major cycle high sop gains through the low 1400 area would be technically significant. Trend momentum favours more gains, suggesting that the 1400 area is likely to be tested sooner rather than later. Key support now is 1320; the rally will unravel very quickly below there”.






Mar 14, 2014

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Flash: Risk in the form of the referendum in Crimea - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman noted that the weekend poses risk in the form of the referendum in Crimea.
Key Quotes:
"The weekend poses risk in the form of the referendum in Crimea, where the choice is between leaving the Ukraine and joining Russia. The Crimean parliament has already approved independence."
"Of course, much of Europe, the US and Japan have warned that they do not recognize the referendum. China may be quiet on the issue, and strategically, why not? From the point of its own domestic interest, China could not accept the legitimacy of a referendum by one of its minority populations (e.g. Tibet or Taiwan) from seeking independence."
Mar 15, 2014
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Moody’s upgrades EU outlook from negative to stable, rating
FXStreet (Córdoba) - FXStreet (Córdoba) - Moody’s Investor Service affirmed the highest rating (Aaa) for the European Union and upgraded the outlook from negative to stable, on the back of an improvement in the credit outlook of Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Spain and on diminishing risks from the Euro area debt crisis.
Key Quotes:
“The key drivers of today's outlook change are as follows:(1) The improvement in the creditworthiness of the EU's largest shareholders, which it depends on for additional support in high stress scenarios. (2) Diminishing risks emanating from the euro area debt crisis, which alleviates pressure on asset quality”.
“The key drivers for today's affirmation of the EU's Aaa/(P)P-1 ratings are: 1) The joint and several liability of member states with regard to their obligations to the EU. 2) The EU's multi-layer debt-service protection. 3) The EU's conservative budget management”.
“Risks to the creditworthiness of the EU and to its rating include a deterioration in the creditworthiness of the EU member states, as reflected in downgrades of Moody's ratings for these states. The EU's rating is particularly sensitive to changes in the ratings of the four countries rated Aaa or Aa1 that make large contributions to the EU budget (i.e., Germany, France, the UK and the Netherlands). A weakening of the commitment of the member states to the EU and changes to the EU's fiscal framework that would lead to less conservative budget management would also be credit negative”.
Mar 15, 2014
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