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Flash: USD modestly weak on Yellen – BTMU
FXstreet.com (London) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ notes the performance of the dollar index.
Key Quotes:
"The US dollar has continued to weaken modestly in the Asian trading session
with the dollar index falling back towards support from its 55-day moving
average which comes in at 80.55".
"Over the last two years the dollar index has traded largely within a narrow range between the 78.00 and 84.00 levels, with the US dollar continuing to lack clear direction against the other major currencies in the near-term".
"Fed Chair-elect Janet Yellen’s dovish tone at last week’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee is still weighing modestly upon the US dollar in the near-term".
Nov 18,2013
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US: NAHB Housing Market Index unchanged in November
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The US NAHB Housing Market Index remained steady at 54 in November, according to data released by the National Association of Home Builders. Analysts expected the indicator to edge up a notch to 55.
Nov 18,2013
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EUR/USD falters ahead of 1.3550
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD has kept pushing higher during the New York session, printing fresh 2-week highs helped by broad US stocks gains.
EUR/USD rises to fresh 2-week highs
US National Association of Home Builders Index was unchanged at 54 in November from a downwardly revised October reading, missing expectations of 55. The EUR/USD broke above 1.3530 and stretched to its highest level since Nov 6 at 1.3540 in recent dealings. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.3530, recording a 0.3% rise Monday.
EUR/USD technical outlook
From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that EUR/USD keeps a positive tone but says the pair needs to consolidate gains above 1.3550 to actually define a bullish trend.
EUR/USD technical levels
In terms of technical levels, the EUR/USD could find next resistances at 1.3547 (Nov 6 high) and 1.3578 (20-day high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.3473 (daily low), 1.3430 (Nov 15 low) and 1.3400 (daily low).
Nov 18,2013
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Flash: GBP going rising on central banks? – RBS

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FXstreet.com (London) - RBS Global Banking and Markets team said they see Sterling rising.


Key Quotes:


“This week's minutes from the November MPC are expected to show that the decision to keep policy unchanged was unanimous. Overall, the MPC's policy stance appears to have entrenched around neutrality”.


“…however, the tone of Weale's comments towards the back end of last week may suggest that the minutes will show a greater degree of views than the market expects”.


“We believe that the recent out-performance of UK data and the apparent indifference of the BoE MPC to the associated tightening of monetary conditions will continue to play GBP positive”.


“With Fed Chairman-elect Yellen deciding not to throw a policy curve-ball last week and the discussion around the ECB inching towards Credit Easing, we see GBP/USD rising”.







Nov 18,2013

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US: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 323K
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - According to the Labour Department, the Americans that filed in their first initial claims for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits fell by 21K last week to a seasonally adjusted 323K in the week ended November 15, below expectations at 335K and coming from 344K (revised from 339K) in the previous print. Continuing claims, which reflect people already receiving benefits, rose by 66K to a seasonally adjusted 2.876 million in the week ended November 8 vs. 2.810 million in the previous week (revised).
Nov 21,2013
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US: PPI dropped 0.2% MoM in October
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Labour Department reported that Producer prices contracted 0.2% MoM during October, matching expectations and down from September’s -0.1%. Over the last twelve months, prices have matched estimates at 0.3%. Ex food and energy, prices rose 0.2% MoM and 1.4% YoY, vs. the median at 0.1% and 1.3% respectively.
Nov 21,2013
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GBP/USD eases to 1.6120
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - After hitting fresh session highs just above 1.6140, the GBP/USD is now retreating to the 1.6125/20 post-US data.
GBP/USD capped by 1.6140
The pair’s bullish momentum seems to have run out of steam in the vicinity of 1.6140 on Thursday, dragged lower by a better tone from the greenback. Data wise in the UK, the public sector figures came in above forecasts, with the Public Sector Net Borrowing climbing to £6.383 billion during October. Releases in the US economy were USD-supportive, showing lower Initial Claims (323K vs. 344K prev.) and Core Producer Prices above estimates.
GBP/USD levels to consider
At the moment the pair is up 0.14% at 1.6130 with the next hurdle at 1.6178 (high Nov.20) followed by 1.6207 (high Oct.28) and then 1.6248 (high Oct.25). On the downside, a breach of 1.6072 (low Nov.21) would open the door to 1.6068 (MA30d) and then 1.6060 (low Nov.19).
Nov 21,2013
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AUD/USD extending losses; A big mover
FXstreet.com (London) - There has been some price action from Asia and another big mover was the AUD.
AUD/USD sold off by 0.7% to 0.9267 and also drove NZD lower. Marcin Budkiewicz , Strategist, Rates and FX Research at TD Securities said, ‘Part of this was driven by RBA Governor Stevens, who mulled FX intervention, saying that “our position has long been, and remains, that foreign exchange intervention can, judiciously used in the right circumstances, be effective and useful.”” AUD/USD has extended losses throughout the European session and into North American data releases. US Initial Jobless Claims improved from 323k vs the 335k consensus. PPI came in line at 0.3% while PPI ex food and energy year on year was up slightly vs consensus at 1.4% vs 1.3%.
AUD/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.9443, the 50 DMA is 0.9445 and the 200 DMA is 0.9651. RSI (14) reads 23.49. Supports are ascending from 0.9196 and 0.9234. Spot is currently 0.9254 and resistances are 0.9282, 0.9301, 0.9378, 0.9418, 0.9448, 0.9482
Nov 21,2013
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Flash: EUR/USD turning lower – TDS
FXstreet.com (London) - A research team at TD Securities noted that the EUR/USD traded in a very narrow range for most of the overnight session, but in recent hours has been boosted, taking back some of yesterday’s losses.
Key Quotes:
“The trigger for yesterday’s selloff was a headline suggesting that negative deposit rates was an option for the ECB, but that was nothing new, and in a speech this morning Draghi reaffirmed that the thinking has not changed since the last policy meeting”.
“Draghi’s comments managed to overshadow the preliminary PMI numbers for November, which on balance were mixed”.
“Overall, a weak turn in EZ economic activity does not bode well for the EUR while data elsewhere in the developed world continues to hold up. Today’s US data will be viewed in that context”.
“On the charts, yesterday’s large bearish outside-range day for EUR/USD does significant damage to the rebound of the last week, and suggests rallies should be limited in the short term. Resistance above is spotted near 1.3500, while 1.3400/25 is the nearest short term support to watch. Below there it could be a quicker slide toward 1.3300”.
AUD/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.9443, the 50 DMA is 0.9445 and the 200 DMA is 0.9651. RSI (14) reads 23.49. Supports are ascending from 0.9196 and 0.9234. Spot is currently 0.9254 and resistances are 0.9282, 0.9301, 0.9378, 0.9418, 0.9448, 0.9482
Nov 21,2013
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Greek PM Samaras sees no fiscal shortfall for 2014
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Greek PM Antonis Samaras visited Berlin on Friday to hold a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and discuss Greece's progress on its bailout commitments. The Greek leader said he did not see a shortfall in Greece's aid program and assured that the country would not ask for any additional funds.
Samaras expressed hope that the negotiations with the Troika international lenders would end soon. He assured that Greece would continue implementing the necessary reforms in order to receive the next tranche of aid.
Angela Merkel admitted that Greece had made considerable progress in implementing reforms, which would be evident in the primary surplus. She acknowledged the sacrifices made by the Greeks and urged the country to deliver on its commitments as this is the only way further funds could be released.
"And what I am taking away from everything discussed today is that it's not very easy but it's doable," the German Chancellor said.
Nov 22,2013
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AUD/USD resists above 0.9150
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD extended losses into a third consecutive day Friday after being rejected from a 2-week high of 0.9447 Wednesday, weighed by Fed minutes and RBA jawboning.
RBA Governor Stevens highlighted Thursday the bank could use intervention to weaken the AUD having said repeatedly that a strong currency could be harmful for the economy. The AUD/USD broke below yet another psychological level during the European session and printed a 2 ½-month low of 0.9153.
AUD/USD prints fifth weekly loss in a row
At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9160 zone, 0.8% lower on the day. The Australian dollar is on track to post its fifth weekly loss in a row, having dropped almost 600 pips from late Oct highs.
Nov 22,2013
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USD/JPY stuck at 101.20
FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/JPY retraced from 101.37 session highs advancing small pips today after a remarkable week that prints over 100 pips in gains so far ahead of the closing of Wall Street.
USD/JPY Technical Levels
Technically speaking, the pair remains within yesterday’s boundaries despite bearish pressure that makes the price stall around the 101.20 zone. On long-term charts, the movement is supported by bullish trends that consolidate a strong rally that started two days ago after the release of better than expected job market data in the US. Offered at 101.25, the pair navigates between the supports aligned at 100.87 (September 20th highs), 100.43 (November 15th highs) followed by 99.78 (November 12th highs) and the resistances aligned at 101.61 (July 2nd highs), 102.64 (May 30th highs) followed by 103.72 (May 17th highs).
Nov 22,2013
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Flash: AUD strengthened modestly overnight on RBA commentary - BTMU




FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable overnight.


Key Quotes


“The Australian dollar has strengthened modestly supported by comments from RBA Deputy Governor Lowe who stated overnight that “the threshold for intervention though is fairly high”.”


“However, he didn’t “rule intervention in or out” which has been a long-standing practice for the RBA. Noting that “in the past, we have been prepared to intervene in the currency market when it’s clear the currency was misaligned or the market wasn’t working well.””


“The speech also highlighted the main economic challenge the Australian economy now faces as it “can no longer depend on rising terms of trade and favourable demographics” to boost living standards which will require an offsetting pick up in productivity.”


“It echoes recent comments from the Australian Treasury’s top economic forecaster David Gruen, who stated that Australia should brace for the weakest income growth in half a century in the coming ten years.”








Nov 26,2013

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USD/JPY: BoJ minutes lift yen from lows
FXstreet.com (London) - The yen has made some recovery from yesterday’s lows on minutes from the Bank of Japan’s October meeting.
USD/JPY has depreciated 0.14 percent so far today to JPY101.4335.
The minutes indicated that central bank officials saw risks to the Japanese economic outlook. Board member Sayuri Shirai proposed to add to the BoJ’s semi-annual Outlook report the phase "attention should be paid to downside risks" given concerns over US economic activity and the Japanese domestic market.
Board member Takahide Kiuchi, who has been vociferous in pushing for the BOJ's 2 percent inflation target to more flexible, proposed the inclusion of the statement that prices are "likely to continue on a moderate rising trend."
Risk rally out of yen
The yen yesterday tested six-month lows on increased risk appetite following the signing of Iran’s accord on nuclear activities.
As part of the agreements concluded in Geneva yesterday morning, Iran will freeze or roll back its uranium enrichment programme to levels which would signal that Iran was not preparing to enrich to weapons grade.
In return, around USD7bn of international sanctions will be raised.
The risk on rally pushed USD/JPY to JPY101.88.
Nov 26,2013
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Flash: EUR/USD resilient between ECB and Fed – Rabobank
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, commented that the current uncertainties regarding the start of the Fed’s QE tapering and the ‘wait-and-see’ stance in the ECB would likely be behind the EUR/USD resilience.
Key Quotes
“Insofar as the market remains obsessed with the timing of Fed tapering, threats of further policy action from the ECB have limited power over the direction of EUR/USD”.
“Although the Fed did not rule out tapering in December in its October policy meeting, we suspect that the Fed will remain on hold until March and that the USD will take its time in clawing itself back to stronger levels. This implies that the ECB will have little choice but to retain its dovish threats”.
“Even so we expect that EUR/USD will remain well supported at least into year end and most likely until it is clear that the Fed are on the brink of tapering. We see risk of EUR/USD holding above the 1.30 area until H2 next year”.
Nov 26,2013
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USD/CAD rejected from 1.0560




FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The USD is now losing some ground, dragging the USD/CAD to the area of 1.0540 after hitting session highs near 1.0560 on Tuesday.


USD/CAD lower after US data, risk appetite


Poor results from the US Consumer Confidence, with the gauge dipping beyond estimates to 70.4 vs. 72.9 for the month of November, collaborated with the current decline, which seems to have found support near 1.0540. The persistence of a risk-on context would be adding to the correction lower as well. According to Sebastien Galy, Strategist at Societe Generale, “The uptrend started in Jan 2013 and is helped by a more dovish BoC (low productivity vs US, risk of a housing correction linked to high debt levels) and probably more importantly a stronger USD. Since the last BoC meeting, the bearish CAD theme has hit a global audience most probably explaining the resilience of USD/CAD to the downside”.


USD/CAD levels to watch


The pair is now down 0.07% at 1.0542 with the next support at 1.0520 (low Nov.25) followed by 1.0513 (low Nov.22) and then 1.0485 (high Nov.19). On the flip side, a breakout of 1.0558 (high Nov.26) would open the door to 1.0584 (high Nov.25) and finally 1.0586 (high Jul.8).






Nov 26,2013

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Flash: Sterling exports needs EZ – TDS
FXstreet.com (London) - Marcin Budkiewicz, Strategist, Rates and FX Research at TD Securities, noted that there were no shocks in the second print of UK GDP and even in the details were largely in line.
Key Quotes:
“There was a bigger drag from exports than expected, which can still be another decent boost for the UK should the Eurozone get back to growth”.
“The September services numbers were slightly weaker at +0.2% M/M instead of 0.4% M/M, but not enough to meaningfully bias the handoff to Q4”.
Nov 27,2013
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GBP/USD losing 1.63 handle
FXstreet.com (London) - The dollar rallied after a number of US data readings beat expectations.
GBP/USD is sub 1.6300 again with consumer confidence rebounding 75.1 vs 73.5. Meanwhile, strategists at TD Securities note that decent growth numbers were near consensus however for the UK, and it seems the outsized GBP rally also had a lot to do with a break of key resistance at 1.6240/50. “A close above that level would add to bullish momentum”.
GBP/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 1.6073, the 50 DMA is 1.6083 and the 200 DMA is 1.5522. RSI (14) reads 73.76. Supports are ascending from 1.6093, 1.6110,1.6134,1.6168, 1.6210, 1.6241 and 1.6260. Spot is 1.6277 while key resistance is 1.6380 on the upside.
Nov 27,2013
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Flash: EUR, year-end squeeze a growing risk - TDS
FXstreet.com (London) - A research team at TD Securities said the EUR might have found a modest bid on the back of news that Germany finally has a government but the void since the September election has hardly been a factor in the past couple of months so we doubt the news was that significant for investors.
Key Quotes:
“Moreover, chatter of further ECB easing steps has not weighed on the EUR at all today. While we remain broadly bullish on the USD outlook over 2014, the risk of a short-term squeeze higher in EUR/USD that we have highlighted remains alive”.
Since 1999, December has been one of the better months of the year for EUR/USD, delivering a near 2.5% average gain. Even when the outsize rally in late 2008 is removed, average gains are still nearly 2%”.
“With EUR/USD through the November 20 high (date of the negative depo rate story), the risk of further, near-term EUR gains is rising”.
Nov 27,2013
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EU Business Climate (November): 0.18 vs -0.01 (October)
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Nov 28,2013
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Flash: USD/JPY has 103.74 in it’s sights – UOB Group
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Quek Ser Leang, Market Strategist at UOB Group comments that the next USD/JPY target at 103.74 will likely come under threat sooner than expected
Key Quotes
“The high of 102.28 early this morning came close to the bullish target highlighted at 102.53 on Monday.”
“The strong upward momentum suggests that a break above this level is likely and the next target at 103.74 (this year’s high) will likely come under threat sooner than expected.”
“The key support has moved higher quickly to 101.00 and as long as this level is intact for the next few days, a break of 102.50/55 could be the trigger for a sharp acceleration towards the year’s high at 103.74.”
Nov 28,2013
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AUD/USD extends recovery to fresh highs
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD has managed to advance Thursday, snapping a 7-day losing streak, supported by rising stocks and domestic data.
The AUD/USD regained the 0.9100 mark after stronger than expected Q3 capex data, and following a phase of consolidation below 0.9140, renewed buying took the pair above the 100-hour SMA to a fresh high of 0.9149. At time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at the 0.9135 zone, recording a 0.6% gain Thursday.
AUD/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, the AUD/USD could find next resistance levels at 0.9149 (daily high) and the 0.9200/0.9204 zone (psychological level/Nov 26 high), while supports are seen at 0.9064 (Nov 27 low) and 0.9036 (Sep 4 low).
Nov 28,2013
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BoE Carney shifts lending focus from home buyers to SMEs as house prices accellerate





FXstreet.com (London) - Bank of England governor Mark Carney today announced that the central bank would be moving to strongly rein in its policy to support mortgage borrowing as house prices begin to further accelerate.


The Bank of England launched the Funding for Lending scheme in June last year in tandem with the Treasury to prop-up lending to home buyers and small businesses.


Under the Funding for Lending scheme, banks and building societies are able to access cheap credit from the central bank as a carrot to encourage them to lend.


However, with the UK economy strongly outperforming forecasts, the BoE is set to pare the scheme back to focus on support for small businesses struggling to gain access to credit.


"Although the growth in household loan volumes remains modest, activity is picking up and house price inflation appears to be gaining momentum," wrote Carney in a letter to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne.


"We should refocus the FLS so that it continues to support lending to the business sector, without adding further broad support to household lending at a time when that is no longer necessary."







Nov 28,2013

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Loonie pulls back from current account deficit lows





FXstreet.com (London) - The Canadian dollar has recovered some ground after falling to intraday lows at CAD1.0571. USD/CAD has clawed back ground on choppy trading, currently down 0.07 percent at CAD1.0591.


The Canadian dollar fell on a report from Statistics Canada showing that the country’s current account deficit narrowed less than expected in the third quarter, with export growth subdued.


The Canadian dollar has been hit by a downturn in demand from the US, is biggest trading partner.


Canada registered a CAD15.5bn current account deficit in the third quarter, declining from a revised C$15.9 billion second-quarter print, but still coming in higher than anticipated.


The weakness in Canadian exports signals that the Canadian dollar may be overvalued, suggesting a longer-term bullish trend against the US dollar.







Nov 28,2013

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UK November Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) rises to 6.5%; 0.6% (MoM)
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Nov 29,2013
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Flash: EUR/USD buoyed by confidence indicators - OCBC Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank notes that EUR/USD was buoyed by supportive November confidence indicators.
Key Quotes
“The pair may continue to capitalize on any potential dollar weakness into the end of the week pending the EZ CPI data release later today.”
EUR/USD upside in the near term continues to show a healthy restraint and the pair may remain capped at 1.3650 with the 55-day MA (1.3554) expected to support on dips.”
Nov 29,2013
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Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) down to -1% in October; -2.2% (YoY)
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Nov 29,2013
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GBP/USD finds support ahead of 1.6300
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD found support at the 1.6310 area and halted the downward correction that started after the pair printed a fresh 11-month high of 1.6373.
Coupled with a technical correction, the GBP came under pressure during the European session in the wake of disappointing UK mortgage and lending data and slid to a low of 1.6313 versus the USD. However, the GBP/USD managed to bounce and it is currently trading at the 1.6335 zone, virtually unchanged on the day, ahead of an empty (in the data front) NY session.
GBP/USD technical outlook
From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that GBP/USD maintains the overall bullish tone as, despite extreme overbought readings, corrective movements remain shallow.
"Further gains should be expected on price accelerations beyond 1.6380 yearly high, eyeing then the 1.6425/40 area, where the pair presents several daily highs and lows from August/September 2011", says Bednarik. "To the downside, main support comes around 1.6290, and a break below it may favor a downward correction towards 1.6250, albeit this latter should again attract buyers if reached".
Nov 29,2013
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Flash: AUD/USD to remain under the weather ahead of RBA meet - OCBC Bank





FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Emmanuel Ng, FX Strategist at OCBC Bank comments that the AUD may continue to feel under the weather ahead of the RBA next Tuesday.


Key Quotes


“AUD may continue to feel under the weather ahead of the RBA next Tuesday, especially with the growth-linked currencies still out favor with investors in the near term.”


“The 0.9000 support remains pivotal although we may expect some capitulation around the 0.9090 area in the interim.”






Nov 29,2013

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Canada: GDP (Sep.) expanded 0.3% MoM





FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The Canadian economic activity expanded 0.3% on a monthly basis during September. At the same time, the Canadian economic activity expanded at an annual pace of 2.7%, surpassing estimates at 2.5% and the previous 1.6% expansion (revised from 1.7%).






Nov 29,2013

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Flash: Sterling higher ahead of Autumn Statement - Societe Generale
Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that the pound has broken through key chart levels this morning against EUR, CHF and USD.
Key Quotes
“We remain short EUR/GBP and long GBP/CHF. RSIs and momentum indicators in GBP/USD look stretched, but we also expect solid PMI data at 9:30 GMT and Thursday’s Autumn Statement is an opportunity for the Chancellor to make optimistic noises about the economic recovery.”
“I expect the BOE to go on pouring cold water on the idea of rates going up in 2014,but I also expect an investment bank economic department or two to forecast an ‘earlier than expected ’move.”
Dec 02,2013
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GBP/USD bounces after strong UK manufacturing PMI
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD rebounded from daily lows after UK Markit Manufacturing PMI came in above forecast in November.
UK Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 last month from 56.5 printed the previous month (upwardly revised from 56.0) and beating expectations of 56.0. The Cable was lifted toward the 1.6425 area from below 1.6400, although momentum was short-lived and the pair pulled back afterward. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6405 zone, still up 0.2% on the day.
GBP/USD technical outlook
From a technical perspective, "The minor corrective pattern below 1.6370 was well bid at 1.6313 low and the uptrend has been renewed, reaching a new local high at 1.6441", said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "The bias remains positive above 1.6385 intraday support, for next leg upwards, toward 1.6613 resistance area. Crucial on the downside is 1.6313 low".
Dec 02,2013
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GBP/USD bounces after strong UK manufacturing PMI
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD rebounded from daily lows after UK Markit Manufacturing PMI came in above forecast in November.
UK Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.4 last month from 56.5 printed the previous month (upwardly revised from 56.0) and beating expectations of 56.0. The Cable was lifted toward the 1.6425 area from below 1.6400, although momentum was short-lived and the pair pulled back afterward. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.6405 zone, still up 0.2% on the day.
GBP/USD technical outlook
From a technical perspective, "The minor corrective pattern below 1.6370 was well bid at 1.6313 low and the uptrend has been renewed, reaching a new local high at 1.6441", said Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at DeltaStock.com. "The bias remains positive above 1.6385 intraday support, for next leg upwards, toward 1.6613 resistance area. Crucial on the downside is 1.6313 low".
Dec 02,2013
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Strong UK PMI numbers lend further support to earlier breach of BoE unemployment threshold
FXstreet.com (London) - Sterling has been given further support by strong manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index numbers. November UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ index numbers came in at 58.4, busting the 56.0 consensus and the highest print since February 2011. Additionally, October’s number was revised up from 56.5 to 56.0.
Particularly bullish was the employment component, up to 54.5 from 51.9, continuing to add support to expectations that the unemployment rate will fall below 7 percent in the third quarter 2014 – below the threshold at which the Bank of England will consider hiking rates. The strong employment numbers combined with robust orders from the Eurozone suggest that there may be some potential for upside in wages – one of the few dark clouds on the horizon of the UK economy as real wages remain in decline.
GBP/USD is at USD1.6413, up 0.22 percent.
Dec 02,2013
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Flash: EUR/USD dips below 1.3550. What’s next? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank






FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The single currency abandoned the area around 1.3600 at the beginning of the week, with the EUR/USD falling through the 1.3550 level despite the solid PMI data from the euro zone.


“The EUR-USD has to contend with a busy data calendar this week as well as the ECB meeting on Thursday. In the interim, an increasingly supported tone may persist, with 1.3653 the next visible resistance while the 55-day MA (1.3558) is expected to offer good support in the current environment”, suggested Emmanuel Ng, Strategist at OCBC Bank.


Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, observed “… near term strength continues to be viewed as corrective and we continue to view the pattern as a potential rising wedge pattern. The top of the pattern is at 1.3627 and a close below 1.3471 will complete it. We look for the 1.3295/94 zone to be retested (current November low and the 50% retracement of the move up from July).








Dec 02,2013

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Dec 02,2013

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Flash: GBP/USD has NOT closed above 1.6370 - Commerzbank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank notes that she made an error yesterday – the did NOT close above the 1.6370 December 2012 high.
Key Quotes
“This attempt higher was seen in fairly thin market conditions and ONLY a CLOSE above 1.6370 will persuade us that there is scope for a move to 1.6634/16735.”
“Every time frame is implying that this is in fact the end of the upmove, and the 60 minute chart is suggesting intraday rallies will now fail 1.6275/85.”
“The daily RSI has not confirmed the new high and we will watch price action around the 1.6259/55 previous highs from October, as failure here will cast attention back to the 5 month uptrend at 1.6029. A close below here will re-target the 1.5855 November low.”
Dec 03,2013
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Session Recap: USD retreats across the board
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The dollar trades lower versus most competitors Tuesday while the pound is outperforming underpinned by a solid UK construction PMI reading.
The EUR/USD managed to advance but stalled at the 1.3575 zone, while the USD/JPY pulled back after hitting a fresh 6-month high of 103.37 amid profit taking. The GBP/USD was boosted to a high of 1.6436, a few pips shy of its last week's peak after the UK construction PMI reached a 6-year high.
The AUD/USD managed to erase early losses after dipping to the 0.9055 area in the wake of the RBA decision to leave policy unchanged. The AUD/USD was last up 0.2% at the 0.9125 zone while the USD/CAD was little changed at 1.0638, having printed a high of 3-year high of 1.0663.
During the New York session, watch for ISM New York index, Redbook, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index and total vehicle sales.
Main Headlines in Europe:
UK: PMI Construction grows to 62.6 in November
EMU: Annual PPI drops 1.4% in October
Flash: What’s the sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank
EU's Rehn: Recovery still fragile in some parts of Europe
Dec 03,2013
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GBP/USD rejected near 1.6440
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The sterling is rapidly picking up pace against the greenback on Tuesday, pushing the GBP/USD to the vicinity of 2013 peaks near 1.6440, although losing some vigour afterwards.
GBP/USD buoyed by data
Better results from Monday’s manufacturing PMI and today’s construction PMI have been supporting the GBP bullish momentum, ahead of the BoE MPC meeting and the Autumn Statement Forecast due later in the week. In the wake of the string construction PMI, analysts at BBH observed that “It is encouraging the market to increase the odds of a rate hike by early 2015 as reflected in the short-sterling futures contracts. It leaves tomorrow's services PMI to round out the trifecta that will point to an acceleration of the UK economy into the end of the year.
GBP/USD levels to watch
At the moment the pair is up 0.38% at 1.6417 facing the next hurdle at 1.6443 (2013 high Dec.2) followed by 1.6455 (high Aug.29 2011) and finally 1.6500 (psychological level). On the flip side, a break below 1.6315 (low Nov.29) would aim for 1.6277 (low Nov.28) and then 1.6260 (high Oct.1).
Dec 03,2013
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USD/CAD consolidates near 3-year high
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD retreated a tad and turned flat for the day after hitting its highest level since August 2010 during the European session.
The USD/CAD peaked at 1.0663 but lost momentum and retreated slightly to enter a consolidation phase contained by 1.0630 on the downside over the last hours. At time of writing, the USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0655 zone, still up 0.1% on the day and with only second-tier data scheduled for the NY session.
USD/CAD technical levels
In terms of technical levels, the USD/CAD could find immediate resistances at 1.0663 (daily high) and 1.0669 (Aug 31 2010 high) followed by 1.0678 (Jul 5 & 6 2010 highs) and 1.0700 (psychological level). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.0630 (daily low) and 1.0600 (psychological level).
Dec 03,2013
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USD&JPY deflates below 102.50
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The USD/JPY continues to retrace yesterday’s sharp ascent to the area of 103.40 amidst a context slightly biased towards the risk-off trade.
USD/JPY back below 103.00
The pair lacked the vigour in its run up to 2013 highs beyond 103.70 on Tuesday, sparking a correction lower while market participants keep digesting the recently announced stimulus package and the pessimistic comments by T.Sato, emphasizing his doubts regarding the capacity of the Japanese economy to achieve the 2% inflation target. “over the short-term, it will bethe events in the US and the euro-zone that will determine the near-term direction of the yen. The best (and most likely) outcome for yen sellers is
that the ECB remains cautious on further easing but equally leaves open the prospect in 2014 and an around consensus 180-200k print in NFP on Friday”, assessed Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research.
USD/JPY levels to watch
At the moment the pair is advancing 0.05% at 102.48 and a surpass of 103.38 (high Dec.3) would target 103.57 (high May 23) en route to 103.74 (2013 high May 22). On the downside, the immediate support is at 102.24 (low Dec.4) ahead of 102.17 (Tenkan Sen line) and then102.04 (MA10d).
Dec 04,2013
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European Commission fines eight banks for fixing rates
FXstreet.com (Łódź) - Following an investigation led since October 2011, the European Commission finally announced its decision on Wednesday to fine eight European and American financial institutions a total of €1.71B for “participating in cartels in the interest rate derivatives industry.”
Deutsche Bank was hit the hardest with a fine of €725M. Société Générale was fined €446M, RBS €391M, JPMorgan and Citigroup between €70-80M, UK broker RP Martin €247K. Barclays has escaped penalty as it revealed the existence of the cartel to the EC.
The EC led two separate investigations in the matter, one concerning interest rate derivatives denominated in the euro currency (in which four firms were involved). The other concerned interest rate derivatives denominated in Japanese yen (in which six firms were involved).
EU's competition commissioner, Joaquin Almunia commented following the EC's announcement: “What is shocking about the LIBOR and EURIBOR scandals is not only the manipulation of benchmarks, which is being tackled by financial regulators worldwide, but also the collusion between banks who are supposed to be competing with each other.”
“Today's decision sends a clear message that the Commission is determined to fight and sanction these cartels in the financial sector. Healthy competition and transparency are crucial for financial markets to work properly, at the service of the real economy rather than the interests of a few."
Almunia added that the European Commision was still investigating companies which declined to settle and that it might look into the foreign exchange market as well.
Dec 04,2013
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Session Recap: USD firmer ahead of key data this week
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD traded a touch firmer versus major competitors Wednesday ahead of key economic data later this week, including the US GDP and the Government employment report, which investors will be closely watching for clues about when the Fed will start scaling back its monetary stimulus.
The EUR/USD traded little changed around 1.3585, while the USD/JPY was flat around 102.45 after peaking at 102.83. The GBP/USD fell to a weekly low of 1.6325 following disappointing UK services PMI. The AUD is among the worst performers across the board, losing 1.3% at 0.9020, weighed by weak Australian GDP figures and disappointing Chinese services PMI.
During the NY session watch for US ADP jobs report, trade deficit, new home sales and ISM services PMI.
Main Headlines in Europe:
Switzerland: Annual Industrial Production drops 2.3% in Q3
Germany: PMI Services rises to 55.7 in November
EMU: Services PMI slides to 51.2 in November
UK: Services PMI dips to 60 in November
EMU: Annual GDP falls 0.4% in Q3, as expected
EMU: Annual Retail Sales drop 0.1% in October
European Commission fines eight banks for fixing rates
Dec 04,2013
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US: MBA Mortgage Applications fell 12.8%
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - Applications for mortgages dropped 12.8% in the week ended on November 29, according to MBA, down from -0.3% from the previous week.
Dec 04,2013
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