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GBP/USD cannot shake negativity, trading at support
FXstreet.com (New York) - The GBP/USD foreign exchange rate earlier surrendered its grip on the 1.5500 level Monday, only to drop lower and entrench itself in negative territory during US trading.
GBP/USD strategic bias
According to Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, “The GBP/USD’s recent sharp gains last week took it to 1.5574 from where it has been easing back these past few days. We remain unable to rule out stabs into the 1.5605/26 May high and top of the channel, though. The Elliott wave count is suggesting we should stall here, but we have a number of conflicting signals.”
GBP/USD technical levels
At the time of writing, the GBP/USD is presently operating at 1.5477 Monday, now falling at a rate of -0.10% off its opening. Technically speaking, the GBP/USD is testing support at 1.5484, a break of which will open up additional means at 1.5459 and 1.5422, notes the Mataf.net analyst team.
Aug 12, 2013
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Portuguese minister assures Portugal fully committed to budget goals
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Minister of Regional Development in Portugal Poiares Maduro said today that the country had agreed to carry out spending cuts worth 4.7 billion euros, as required by the Troika in exchange for bailout funds. According to previous reports the country´s government was considering reducing the spending cuts to 2 billion euros.
"Portugal remains fully committed to its obligations under the assistance program as agreed under the last regular review (of the economy) by the Troika," Poiares Maduro told Reuters on Monday adding that “the 2014 budget is being prepared according to those commitments and the values agreed.”
Two Portuguese ministers stepped down in July, expressing their disagreement towards the amount of budget cuts required by the international lenders and triggering a political turmoil in the country. Currently Portugal is required to reduce its budget deficit to 4% of GDP in 2014 from 5.5% of GDP this year.
The Troika inspectors are due to arrive in Lisbon for another review of the Portuguese bailout program at the end of August. The country´s government will present the budget for 2014 before parliament on October 15.
Aug 12, 2013
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Flash: Jitters in global equity markets, USD bid
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Sebastian Gally, strategist for Societe Generale said Jitters in global equity markets are giving the USD some bid.
Key Quotes:
“…but with a slew of US data releases ahead we are likely to re-establish the short USD long risk relationship until we head for early September with the next NFP release”.
“This suggests that the upward trajectory in EUR/USD is probably not over yet, while USD/JPY which correlates well with positive US economic surprises is showing signs of stabilizing”.
“EUR/USD is continuing to settle lower after failing to breach its longer-term downtrend. As of last Tuesday the market had moved to a marginal long EUR/USD position which most likely increased by Friday and is now being squeezed”.
“We are medium-term bears in EUR/USD, but it seems too early for the major move lower. We would wait for a clean breach above 1.3400 to establish further shorts”.
Aug 12, 2013
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Flash: What will come out of EZ and UK data? – TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Tim Davis, Global Strategist, Rates and FX Research at TD Securities eyes the calendar packed week ahead in UK and EZ.
Key Quotes:
“We see upside risks to the German ZEW survey (Tues) and Q2 GDP (Wed) being released this week, though improvements have been smaller elsewhere and France is still struggling, which may limit upside for aggregate Eurozone GDP”.
“UK unemployment (Tues) will be front and centre given it is the new anchor of BoE policy, though we see strong risks of a disappointment number that could see gilts rally in spite of the risk that the simultaneous release of the BoE Minutes may show some division on QE and forward guidance”.
Aug 12, 2013
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USD/CAD testing the 1.0300 level
FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CAD foreign exchange rate has moved to the 1.0300 region Monday, clinging to this barrier despite earlier drops below it (1.0279 session low).
USD/CAD strategic bias
Technically speaking, the USD/CAD is now trading at 1.0298, presently incurring a marginal loss of -0.02% off its opening. The Mataf.net analyst team points to supportive means at 1.0297, ahead of 1.0257, and 1.0228.
According to the TD Securities Team, “The USD/CAD has traded higher from Friday’s low, leaving the late-July/early-August trading range firmly intact. The pair’s failure to follow through on some of the bullish signals from early last week was a disappointment to USD/CAD bulls, and while price action is looking more neutral in the short and medium term perspective, our broader bias remains higher still as long as the 1.0250 support holds in the coming days. On the topside, there is a little more room for movement, with key resistance further away in the 1.0440/45 area.”
Aug 12, 2013
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EUR/USD momentum building for push above 1.3300?
FXstreet.com (New York) - The EUR/USD foreign exchange rate has effectively bottomed out earlier at the 1.3277 level (session low), only to rebound during US trading and move back towards 1.3300.
At this juncture, the EUR/USD is now navigating the region of 1.3300, still incurring a fall of -0.18% off its opening despite the recent recovery. Briefing the technicals, the EUR/USD is trading at support at 1.3304, a break of which will open up additional means at 1.3282, and 1.3239.
EUR/USD strategic bias
According to Karen Jones, an analyst at Commerzbank, “The EUR/USD last week rallied to and stalled at the 200-week MA and the June high at 1.3394/1.3417. There is little to suggest that the market will maintain a break beyond here. Nonetheless the market remains bid above the 1.3337 accelerated uptrend and only loss of the nearby low at 1.3188 will alleviate immediate upside pressure. Failure here will target the 1.3000 region. Loss of this zone is needed to re-target the 1.2755/40 recent low and April low.”
Aug 12, 2013
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USD/JPY extends the correction
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The USD is easing some ground on Monday after lifting the USD/JPY to fresh intraday highs around 96.90.
USD/JPY hurt by data
The Japanese yen managed to leave behind the disappointing data from the Annualized GDP, expanding 2.6% during the second quarter vs. 3.6% expected. Further data also showed that Machine Tool Orders contracted at an annual pace of 12.1% during July. “Moderate scale Japanese net buying of foreign bonds isn’t enough to counter nerves over Japan-China tensions and Nikkei vulnerability to fears that PM Abe’s "third arrow" of reform will never really be fired. "Obon" week should keep volume light, with scope for USD/JPY to dip as far as 94/95. This is a dip we would look to buy”, assessed analysts at Westpac Global Strategy Group.
USD/JPY levels to watch
The pair is now up 0.24% at 96.54 with the next resistance at 96.98 (high Aug.9) ahead of 97.50 (low Aug.6) and then 97.80 (high Aug.7). On the downside, a break below 95.92 (low Aug.12) would target 95.81 (low Aug.8) en route to 95.80 (high Jun.14).
Aug 12, 2013
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US sells $30Bn of 3-month bills at 0.055%
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Aug 12, 2013
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EUR/CHF on meteoritic rise to 10-days highs
FXstreet.com (Chicago) - EUR/CHF clawed above 1.2370 zone on formidable Tuesday session upswing.
Earlier in Europe, the ZEW survey was out with a 44.0 economic sentiment outperforming expectations at 37.4 and previous 32.8. Similarly, industrial production results (YoY) reached 0.3% vs. projected 0.2%, sending the euro to new levels against a timid Swissy.
Technically speaking, the pair trades at 1.2373, between supports at 1.2365 (June 18th highs), 1.2356 (August 2nd highs) ahead of 1.2347 (July 31st highs) and resistances at 1.2375 (July 1st highs), 1.2384 (August 12th highs) followed by 1.2397 (July 16th highs). According to the FXstreet.com trend index, the pair is slightly bullish on one-hour timeframe analysis with a MACD pointing up.
Market participants await Euro-zone GDP data for the second quarter of the year to be available publicly tomorrow morning.
Aug 13, 2013
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St. Louis Fed head Bullard worried about rising US yields
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expressed his worries about the increase in the benchmark US 10-year bond yields, after they hit a two-year high on Thursday.
"I think it is a concern," he admitted, speaking at the Breakfast with the Fed event sponsored by the Bank’s Louisville Branch. He added however that "the level of yields now is still quite low by historical standards."
Bullard referred to the situation of the US housing market, which in his opinion is strong enough overcome the higher yields. He also suggested there were currently no major asset bubbles which could undermine financial stability in the US.
As far as the Fed QE tapering prospects are concerned, Bullard reiterated that reducing asset purchases too aggressively could lead to a further drop in inflation. That is why initially QE could be scaled back only by a small amount.
Aug 15, 2013
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US EIA Natural Gas Storage change falls to 65B in August 9 from 96B
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Aug 15, 2013
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AUD/USD bounces off lows, though downtrend remains
FXstreet.com (New York) - The AUD/USD technical pair took a tumble Thursday morning during US trading, as the USD had its way with the AUD after the release of earlier US CPI and employment data.
Having bottomed out at 0.9058 (session low), the AUD/USD is now navigating the region of 0.9085, en route to a staunch decline of -0.41% off its opening. Briefing the technicals, the AUD/USD blew through previous support at 0.9103, and will now look to 0.9052 and 0.9023 to suspend any further collapse, calculates the Mataf.net analyst team.
AUD/USD strategic bias
According to Axel Rudolph, an analyst at Commerzbank, “The AUD/USD is bouncing off the breached downtrend channel line at 0.9050 and has the 55-day MA at 0.9247 back in focus. Between it and the 0.9319 July high we should see failure and the resumption of the longer-term bearish trend. Longer-term we remain negative and our downside target is seen at 0.8550, the 50% retracement of the move up from 2008. Our longer-term downside target measured from the top is 0.7700.”
Aug 15, 2013
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USD/JPY unstable below 98.00?
FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/JPY foreign exchange rate has been entrenched in negative territory Thursday, careening off a ledge and tumbling below the 98.00 region during US trading.
USD/JPY strategic bias
According to Jim Langlands at FX Charts, “On the topside, above 98.40, the 200-day MA lies at 98.68. A sustained move above here would see a move towards 99.00 and eventually 100.00. There are plenty of sellers lined up at the higher levels and I would really be quite surprised to see the dollar trade much above the 200-day MA today. On the downside, 97.90 is the immediate support. Below this further bids are likely at 97.75 and then 97.50. I would be surprised to see it back down here either, but if wrong, further bids should be found at 97.20.”
USD/JPY technical levels
The USD/JPY has recovered the mark of 97.88 in these moments, after touching the 97.59 level earlier (session low). At this juncture, the pair is incurring a loss of -0.26% off its opening during US trading. Technically speaking, the USD/JPY will face support at 97.64, ahead of 97.37, and 96.98.
Aug 15, 2013
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US Dollar Index losing its shine
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -After a quick spike beyond 81.90 post-jobs data, the greenback – gauged by the US Dollar Index – is trading back to the negative territory around 81.65/70.
DXY keeps the red on mixed data
The cheerful tone on multi-year lows of Initial Claims - level last seen in October 2007 - was rapidly eclipsed by the industrial production and regional manufacturing indices bellow forecasts, prompting the world’s reserve to scale back initial gains. Daragh Mayer, Senior FX Strategist at HSBC Research, assessed, “despite the market's recent focus on the prospects for Fed tapering, there is not yet strong evidence that this theme has started to dominate. This may change once market activity picks up again in September, but for now local news may be more important than global developments in driving FX rates”.
DXY levels to watch
The index is now losing 0.08% at 81.67 with the immediate support at 80.86 (low Aug.8) followed by 80.50 (low Jun.19) and then 80.27 (low Feb.20). On the upside, a break above 82.50 (high Aug.2) would expose 83.12 (high Jul.15) and then 84.75 (high Jul.9).
Aug 15, 2013
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EUR/USD climbs to highs around 1.3350
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -A sudden bout of buying interest catapulted the EUR/USD to fresh weekly highs around 1.3350 on Thursday, although giving away some pips afterwards.
EUR/USD extends upside beyond 1.3300
It seems this is the push the single currency was looking for in order to follow through 1.3300 the figure. Although the catalyst remains yet unknown, market chatter places stop orders triggered after the USD/JPY fell to session lows around 97.30.
EUR/USD levels to watch
As of writing the pair is advancing 0.48% at 1.3320 with the next resistance at 1.3345 (high Aug.12) followed by 1.3391 (high Aug.9). On the downside, a breach of 1.3188 (low Aug.2) would open the door to 1.3179 (MA30d) and then 1.3164 (low Jul.23).
Aug 15, 2013
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USD/CHF, smashed by the bears?
FXstreet.com (Chicago) - USD/CHF tops losers among major currency pairs accumulating 0.73% daily losses and dropping to 0.9248 intraday lows.
Price action reveals a strong bearish sentiment among market participants as the pair has been sent to new grounds within seconds. At 0.9259, the pair trades between supports at 0.9262 (June 16th highs), 0.9237 (August 6th lows) ahead of 0.9214 (August 10th lows) and resistances at 0.9286 (August 7th highs), 0.9310 (June 22nd lows) followed by 0.9330 (July 31st highs).
According to the FXstreet.com trend index the pair is slightly bearish on one-hour timeframe analysis with a MACD pointing down.
Aug 15, 2013
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GBP/JPY, persists on upswing
FXstreet.com (Chicago) - GBP/JPY accumulates 0.21% gains so far despite strong retracement from 153.20 zone earlier today.
Earlier in the UK, retail sales data triggered a bullish reaction as the pair peaked above 153.20. At 1.1% (MoM), retail sales were better than expected as projections were at 0.6%. Similarly, retail sales ex-fuel matched 1.1% to outbeat the same estimates, up 0.5%.
Since the data was released, the price has cascaded to the 152.32 zone to trade at 152.26 between supports at 152.00 (July 16th highs), 151.76 (June 21st highs) ahead of 151.55 (July 8th highs) and resistances at 152.33 (July 22nd lows), 152.65 (July 31st highs) followed by 152.96 (July 28th highs). The FXstreet.com trend index reports the pair as slightly bullish on one-hour timeframe analysis, navigating above EMA20.
Aug 15, 2013
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GBP/USD catapults higher as 1.5600 barrier fails to curb advance
FXstreet.com (New York) - The GBP/USD foreign exchange rate surged to fresh highs Thursday, streaming above the 1.5600 level during US trading.
Technically speaking, the GBP/USD is now operating at 1.5638, securing a steadfast gain of +0.87% above it’s opening during US trading. With the GBP/USD already breaking resistance at 1.5621, the next level of correction will attempt to stymie an advance at 1.5695, notes the Mataf.net analyst team.
GBP/USD strategic bias
According to the Technical Analyst Team at ICN.com, “The GBP/USD is attempting to the upside but notably breached the 78.6% correction at 1.5550. This level represents an intraday interval and a break above this will avert a bearish correction during the US session especially, despite the fact the stochastic is still negative.”
Aug 15, 2013
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Gold held at 1365 resistance, silver testing 23.00
FXstreet.com (New York) - Precious metals have clung to their gains Friday, held by respective resistances that have retraced off of earlier highs.
Gold testing 1365 resistance
Gold prices initially broke the 1365 resistance and traded as high as 1373 earlier today, though during US trading prices have retreated back to 1365. Despite this easing however, the bullish momentum remains strong, and accordingly a bullish scenario is still maintained. At the time of writing, gold prices are trading at USD $1365.35 per oz. Friday.
Silver testing 22.00
Silver breached the 23.00 level earlier today, trading in the heights of 23.27 (daily high) before an easing back towards the 23.00 resistance. Ultimately the technicals still support a push higher, with the MACD in positive territory supporting the bullish wave, and the possible breakout continues to be effective. The price of silver has now moved to USD $23.05 per oz. during US trading.
Aug 16, 2013
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Flash: EUR/USD targets 1.3417 resistance with bullishness intact – UBS
FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses.
Key quotes
“With bullish conditions in place, the EUR/USD has its first resistance focus at 1.3417, a break above which would open 1.3520. Support is at 1.3206 ahead of 1.3154, suggesting a bullish outlook.”
In terms of the EUR/CHF, “With the MACD threatening to cross above its zero line, the risk is for more upside. Resistance is at 1.2466/85. Support is at 1.2331 ahead of 1.2268.”
Moving to the EUR/GBP, “The cross closed below 0.8540 and this is a bearish trigger, indicating scope for a move 0.8469 and test the important support at 0.8398. Resistance sis at 0.8569 ahead of 0.8610.”
Aug 16, 2013
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GBP/USD rejected from above 1.5650
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After repeated failure to decisively break above the 1.5650/55 area, GBP/USD turned lower and retraced some of its recent gains, dropping to fresh daily lows in recent dealings.
The GBP/USD hit a fresh 2-month high of 1.5655, but was rejected from that level and surrendered gains, dipping into negative ground for the day. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at the 1.5610 zone, down 0.2% on the day, having scored a daily low of 1.5606 in recent dealings.
GBP/USD levels to watch
In terms of technical levels, immediate supports are seen at 1.5606/00 (daily lows/psychological level) and 1.5517 (200-day SMA). On the other hand, if GBP/USD manages to break above the 1.5650/55 area, next resistances could be found at 1.5678 (Jun 19 high) and 1.5700 (psychological level).
Aug 16, 2013
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USD/CAD extends gains higher
FXstreet.com (New York) - The USD/CAD foreign exchange rate has been performing remarkably better Friday, after a brush with negativity yesterday – a familiar path for most USD pairs.
USD/CAD strategic bias
According to the TD Securities Team, “On the charts, the USD/CAD did not avoid the whippy price action that has pervaded the market over the past 24 hours, but its moves were much tamer than many of the other major currencies. The short and medium term charts are still reflective of a consolidation phase for the pair, and the longer-term charts (weekly) suggest the bull trend is still intact. With that in mind, we still favor an ultimate break to the upside of the current neutral range, which is defined by 1.0250/1.0445.”
USD/CAD technical levels
The USD/CAD has moved up to 1.0347 in these moments, though is still trading below its highs at 1.0362 Friday. At this juncture, the pair is securing a gain of +0.40% above opening during US trading. Technically speaking, the USD/CAD will face resistance at 1.0365, onto 1.0405, notes the Danske Research Team.
Aug 16, 2013
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USD/CHF bounces from lows and erases losses
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The US dollar managed to trim losses versus most competitors after disappointing data sent the greenback to daily lows.
The USD/CHF bounced from a 4-day low of 0.9216, erasing intraday losses and rising back to the 0.9270 zone, where it is virtually unchanged on the day as another week comes to an end in Europe.
USD/CHF technical levels
As for technical levels, immediate resistances could be found at 0.9287 (daily high) and 0.9305 (100-hour SMA), while supports are now seen at 0.9216 (daily low) and 0.9200 (psychological level).
Aug 16, 2013
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Flash: USD/JPY eyes upside, 98.67 the figure to break – UBS




FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's majors and outline the technical positions.


Key quotes


Beginning with the USD/JPY, “Resistance is at 98.67, a close above this would extend the recent strength to 99.95 and then 101.53. Support is at 95.81 ahead of 93.79.


“The strength over the past two days reinforces the bullish theme, opening the way to test the critical resistance at 1.5752. Support is at 1.5496..”


Finally, in terms of the USD/CHF, “Fresh selling pressure materialized after testing the strong resistance at 0.9395. The risk is for a move below support at 0.9175 and test the important support at 0.9130.









Aug 16, 2013

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NZD/USD retreats from 3-month high



FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD came under pressure during the European session and has been steadily receding ground ever since weighed by the decline in risk appetite.


NZD/USD dips back below 0.8100


NZD/USD dropped nearly 90 pips from highs, breaking below the 0.8100 mark to bottom out at 0.8076 in recent dealings. At time of writing, NZD/USD is trading at the 0.8080 zone, still 0.4% below its opening price.


NZD/USD technical levels


As for technical levels, immediate supports for NZD/USD could be found at 0.8076 (daily low), 0.8050 (100-hour SMA) and 0.8015 (10-day SMA). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 0.8105 (100-day SMA) and 0.8162 (3-month high scored earlier).






Aug 19, 2013

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Canada: Wholesale Sales dropped 2.8% in June
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -Canadian Wholesale Sales contracted 2.8% on a monthly basis during June, missing forecasts at -0.7% and down from May’s 2.2% advance (revised).
Aug 20, 2013
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USD/CAD reaches 1.0400 on weak Canadian wholesale sales
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/CAD extended gains to the 1.0400 area after data showed Canadian Wholesale Sales fell much more than expected in June (-2.8% vs 0.7% exp), weighing on the loonie.
USD/CAD broke above the 1.0375 zone and jumped to a fresh 2-week high of 1.0400 before the psychological level halted the rise. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.0390 zone, where it records a 0.5% gain on the day.
USD/CAD levels to watch
If USD/CAD manages to break above 1.0400, next resistances could be found at 1.0430 (Aug 8 high) and 1.0450 (Jul 11 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 1.0345 (session low) and 1.0300 (psychological level).
Aug 20, 2013
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Flash: CAD, nervous trading environment - TD Securities
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The CAD is opening up a little softer overall amid illiquid and somewhat nervous trading, said research teams at TD Securities.
Key Quotes:
“Developing market tensions remain front and centre but, for the most part, pressure on the likes of the INR and IDR have yet to spill more obviously over into the developed market space”.
“Investors are unsettled though as rising US yields imply Fed tapering expectations are setting more firmly into the market psyche.”
“Assets that have broadly benefitted from excess central bank liquidity such as large current account deficit, developing market currencies face a harder time attracting investment inflows and that trend is spilling over into the high beta FX pairs as well to some degree”.
“USD/CAD is firmer but spot may be close to the upper end of the intraday range as we open up out session. We spot short-term resistance in the 1.0375/80 zone, ahead of key resistance on the daily chart at 1.0425/45”.
“The technical picture turners more obviously bullish above here. Key support remains 1.0295/00 (rising trend support off the mid-June low) on the daily chart.”
Aug 20, 2013
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GBP/JPY eye's 153.00
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - GBP/JPY is testing the 153.00 handle ahead of tonight’s main event.
GBP/JPY has been a mixed pair while focus turned from GBP to Yen and back to GBP this week. Yields have been in the limelight with global bond prices looking to the Fed minutes this evening. Gareth Berry at UBS FX strategy had said that the US-Japan bond spread continues to widen in favour of USDJPY upside. “We look for more spread widening over the months ahead, as the Fed begins the process of QE3 tapering while the Bank of Japan continues to lean heavily on the JGB curve” Meanwhile, GBP/USD has been eyeing the 1.5700 psychological handle from the start of the week, but with the anticipation of the FOMC minutes coming up tonight, markets have been cautious around the outcome and trading has got off to a slow pace this week so far. The pair has remained in a tight range between 1.5630 and 1.5700. The calendar is very light this morning and afternoon for the pair, but again, the key focus today will clearly be the minutes from the July 30-31 FOMC as the market looks for signals in timing and scale of the Fed’s plans to taper its current QE policy.
GBP/JPY has a positive bias
GBP/JPY is trading with a positive bias yet again with the 20 DMA at 151.00, the 50 DMA at 150.90 and the 200 DMA is 145.90. RSI (9) prints 56.52. Supports are ascending from 149.80, 150.65, 151.20 and151.70. Spot is currently 152.77 while resistances are 153.10 153.60 154.05 154.65.
Aug 21, 2013
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US Dollar Index challenges 81.00
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, is reverting the recent 2-day decline so far, hovering over the key support at 81.00 ahead of the FOMC minutes.
DXY under pressure
The USD would be under pressure today, as markets expectations point to a dovish tone from the FOMC minutes. “If USD selling is the result of today’s events, we would view that as a short term selling opportunity in consideration of the bigger picture outlook. The size and path of Fed tapering is not entirely certain, but in all likelihood should commence in the next month. In a broad sense, less accommodation should continue to be positive for yields and USD”, suggested G.Moore and S.Osborne, FX Strategists at TD Securities.
DXY support/resistance levels
At the moment the index is up 0.16% at 81.06 and a surpass of 81.94 (high Aug.15) would bring of 82.50 (high Aug.2) and then 83.12 (high Jul.15). On the downside, the initial support lies at 80.86 (low Aug.8) ahead of 80.75 (low Aug.20) and then 80.50 (low Jun.19).
Aug 21, 2013
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USD/JPY still upwards ahead of FOMC release
FXstreet.com (Athens) - USD/JPY is trading higher well above the 97.00 level amidst the fifth consecutive decline of Asian indices.
USD/JPY eyes on FOMC minutes
Investors keep waiting for details of discussions at the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting to gauge when the central bank might pare its bond purchases, against the backdrop of mounting fears that the outing will confirm the beginning of the “tapering” in September. In another tone, Japan’s raised severity of latest Fukushima leak to level 3 ("serious" radiation "incident") on international scale. Fukushima leak and Asian indices jitters, helped a lot to remain above the 97.00 level, despite extended dollar weakening and volatility, ahead of FOMC today’s meeting. Data-wise, the Japanese currency might also being hurt by dismal supermarket sales reported in July down 0.5%, versus up 2.7%, on a yearly basis.
Technical outlook on USD/JPY
At the time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at 97.50, up 0.24%.The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bearish. Investors should bear in mind that Nikkei Index down 0.79% as USDJ/PY is up 0.18%. Correlation between the two has risen from 0.41 for the past year to 0.65 for the past week. Daily pivot point support can be found at 97.00, 96.82, 96.57 and resistance at 98.09, 98.17 and 98.33, respectively.
Aug 21, 2013
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USD/JPY still upwards ahead of FOMC release



FXstreet.com (Athens): EUR/GBP is well supported over 0.8520 area, on better than expected Euro land PMI.


European growth prospects as well as no significant UK data, ‘uplift ‘the pair.


Despite, sterling’s post FOMC move has largely been in line with the wider American dollar, sterling lost ground against the single currency. Signs of a stabilizing China and improvement in European growth prospects have helped cushion what has been deteriorating risk appetite this week. Mainly, global concerns have been manifested in the form of collapsing emerging markets, which has boosted those currencies with ‘risk-appetite’, growth momentum, like the single currency. Therefore, signs that the Euro-Zone may stay out of recession in the third quarter of 2013 produced a stronger Euro. What’s more, UK data is very light today, therefore the trend is set to continue.


Technical outlook on EUR/GBP


Jynske Bank Team suggest that ‘We recommend that investors place a sell order at 86.20 to catch EURGBP before the next weakening phase begins. In the short term, EURGBP trades in oversold territory, and therefore we expect that in the short term EURGBP will trade back towards the 86.30-86.90 range. No important fundamentals will be announced in the UK this week. We still expect that GBP will strengthen over the coming 3, 6 and 12 months’. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bullish.. Daily pivot point support can be found at 0.8520, 0.8500, 0.8484 and resistance at 0.8600, 0.8622, 0.8698, respectively.





Aug 22, 2013

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Canada: CPI grows 0.1% in July, 1.3% YoY
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Canadian consumer price index grew 0.1% in July accumulating 1.3% year-over-year, a tad above the previous month's 0.0% and 1.2% readings. Market expectations were for a 0.2% rise MoM and 1.4% YoY in July.
The core rate, which excludes volatile components such as some food and energy, stood unchanged compared to the previous month but rose 1.4% over the year, which came in line with market expectations.
Aug 23, 2013
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US New Home Sales decline 13.4% to 394M annual rate in July
Read more in Forex News
Aug 23, 2013
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EUR/USD jumps after EMU, US data
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD jumped to fresh daily highs after the latest string of data showed Eurozone consumer confidence rose to a 2-year high in August, while US new home sales dropped sharply in July.
Data lifts EUR/USD to 2-day high
EUR/USD broke above the 1.3370/75 area, which had been capping the upside over the last 2 days, and printed a high of 1.3387 so far. At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at the 1.3380 zone, where it records a 0.2% gain on the day.
EUR/USD technical levels
If EUR/USD manages to clear the 1.3385 zone, next resistances could be found at 1.3400 (psychological level) and 1.3426 (Aug 21 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.3330 (10-day SMA) and the 1.3297/1.3300 area (Aug 22 low/psychological level).
Aug 23, 2013
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Flash: GBP/USD apprehensive ahead of Carney - OCBC Bank
Emmanuel Ng of OCBC Bank notes that after a choppy session, GBP/USD ended slightly lower on the day despite supportive data readings.
Key Quotes
“Markets may remain apprehensive going into BOE Carney’s appearance on Wednesday amid background fears that the governor may express some discomfort with firmer interest rates.”
“On the CFTC front, net speculative GBP shorts were reduced in the latest week but the pair may hesitate on approach of the 1.5750/60 neighborhood on the top side while the 200-day MA (1.5516) may provide initial s support on dips.”
Aug 26, 2013
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Commodities rising on DXY drop
FXstreet.com (Athens) - Commodities rose on Friday, as the drop in U.S. new home sales, renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will maintain its bond-buying economic stimulus.
Will commodities go further this week?
A rise in gasoline futures helped oil prices pull higher on Friday following news of a unit shutdown at a Canadian East Coast refinery. Brent crude raised $1.14 to settle at $111.04 a barrel, off earlier highs of $111.23 a barrel. U.S. crude raised $1.39 to $106.42 a barrel, off a session peak of $106.94 and narrowing the contract's discount to Brent to $4.62 a barrel.
Gold rose almost 2 percent on Friday, hitting its highest price in more than two months near $1,400 an ounce, as a big drop in U.S. new home sales renewed hopes that the Federal Reserve will maintain its bond-buying economic stimulus. To elaborate on, the previous week, gold gained 1.6 percent for its third consecutive weekly rise. It has climbed in six out of the past seven weeks since gold fell to a three-year low at $1.180 an ounce on June 28. Last but not least, silver rose 4 percent to $24.04 an ounce, having hit a high of $24.08, which marked the highest since May 9.
Aug 26, 2013
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Flash: EUR/USD and stocks higher on US data disappointment - Danske Bank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Danske bank analysts note that yesterday’s disappointing durable goods orders out of the US sent rates lower and EUR/USD and equities higher (reversed later) as markets continue to discount the Fed tapering process.
Key Quotes
“Notably worrying was the capex trend suggesting that businesses started Q3 on a weak footing and unless July proves an outlier,this could imply downside risks to our H2 forecast that US growth will pick up.”
“Regarding the global economic outlook, we highlight that growth in developed markets is finally taking off in H2 due to the end of fiscal tightening, a turn in US housing and reduced global uncertainty.”
“Rising exports to US and Europe should also help to eventually lift emerging markets (EM) in 2014.”
Aug 27, 2013
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Flash: EUR/USD maintains bullishness despite earlier stumble – UBS
FXstreet.com (New York) - UBS Strategists, Gareth Berry and Geoffrey Yu take a technical perspective at today's EUR crosses.
Key quotes
“Initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at 1.3452, a break above which would open 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3298 ahead of 1.3206, suggesting a bullish outlook.”
In terms of the EUR/CHF, “Support is at 1.2268, a break below which would expose 1.2219. Resistance is at 1.2378 ahead of 1.2434.”
Moving to the EUR/GBP, “The cross has been consolidating over the past few sessions and any further recovery should find resistance at 0.8606. Support is at 0.8505 ahead of 0.8398, suggesting a bearish outlook.”
Aug 27, 2013
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Flash: GBP/USD fails to break 200W MA ahead of Carney - BTMU
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the pound continues to weaken modestly in the near-term after EUR/GBP failed to break below key support from its 200-week moving average which came in at just below the 0.8500-level, and GBP/USD failed to break above key resistance from its 200-week moving average which came in at around the 1.5750-level.
Key Quotes
“The pound is trading on weaker footing heading into today’s speech from BoE Governor Carney.”
“It is his first significant speech since he took over as Governor, and will provide the first opportunity to comment on developments since the BoE introduced forward rate guidance on the 8th August.”
“It is unlikely that Governor Carney will have been pleased that forward rate guidance, a form of easing, unintentionally prompted a tightening in overall monetary conditions in the UK with short rates rising and the pound strengthening, even accounting for the further pick up in cyclical economic momentum in the UK.”
“As a result it would be surprising if Governor Carney did not attempt to push back against those market expectations for earlier BoE tightening, to reinforce the potential effectiveness of the guidance.”
Aug 28, 2013
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USD/CHF above 0.9200, on USD strengthening across the board
FXstreet.com (Athens): The USD/CHF has been trading upwards on European trading session all time long, but it took several hours to break above the 0.9200 area.
USD/CHF breaks the barrier of 0.9200 on Syria conflict fears
The USD/CHF fell apart on Tuesday, as it broke the crucial resistance of the 0.9200 area. While the pair had been trading on the upper level since the opening of the European trading session, it failed to break the resistance zone of 0.9200 area. Finally, due to the geopolitical tensions, the American dollar got a solid boost across the board, i.e. USD/CHF managed to spike on 0.9211 and still sitting well above 0.9200 level. Juckes from Societe Generale, says that ‘The blood-letting won't really end until the Fed finally moves from taper-talk to actually cutting back bond purchases though on a positive note, we may then see a decent bounce in EM in particular and in ‘risk' overall. But for now, the risk of US/European intervention in Syria is the focus’.
Technical outlook on USD/CHF
At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.9204, up 0.28 BBH Global Currency Strategy Team suggest that ‘USD/CHF is gradually moving towards the June low near 0.9100, not too far from the year’s low around 0.9020. Also, the geopolitical tensions have contributed to the partial reversal of the higher trend in US Treasury yields. For example, 10-year yields are back to 2.74%, off 16 basis points from their recent highs from the middle of last week. The trend higher in gold prices which started in early July has also seems to have been reinforced, rising 4.5% since the middle of last week’. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bullish. Daily pivot point support can be found at 0.9107, 0.9085, 0.9062 and resistance at 0.9260 0.9286 and 0.9308, respectively.
Aug 28, 2013
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GBP/USD soars on Carney dovish comments
FXstreet.com (Athens) - The GBP/USD gains more than 50 pips, while Carney comments ‘rates will be on hold until jobs rise in a sustainable fashion’.
GBP/USD spikes above 1.5500 level on Carney mania across the board
The cable jumped more than 50 pips, after the Canadian governor of BoE said that ‘guidance does not prevent the central bank from adding to stimulus and ‘rates will be on hold until jobs rise in a sustainable fashion’. While, just before Carney’s lunchtime talking, the cable being caught under severe pressure, Carney’s comments made cable to jump over 1.5500 area. The BoE governor also said that ‘7% unemployment rate is not a trigger, but a threshold’, boosting sharply the demand for the sterling.
Technical outlook on GBP/USD
At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5521, down 0.15%, after having reached a daily high of 1.5532 The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be neutral. Daily pivot point support and resistance can be found at S3: 1.5480 S2: 1.5425 S1: 1.5400 R1:1.5614 R2:1.5643 R3:1.5682
Aug 28, 2013
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EUR/CHF above 1.2300 as fears on early military strike abated
FXstreet.com (Athens) - The EUR/CHF is trading smoothly upwards, consolidating around 1.2300 level.
The EUR/CHF continues to consolidate around the 1.2300 handle
Traders were relatively more hopeful on the European trading session, as it was all quiet on the Syrian front. As a consequence, the single currency found solid ground to boost further and mostly to consolidate above the 1.2300 zone. There have been some spicy comments on behalf of ECB, as Nowotny said ‘central banks shouldn't intervene in FX markets, the Swiss monetary policy is very unconventional’.
Technical outlook on EUR/CHF
At the time of writing, EUR/CHF is trading as of 1.2310, up 0.10%, not far away from its daily high of 1.2315. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bullish. Daily pivot point support can be found at 1.2288, 1.2257, 1.2227, and resistance at 1.2378, 1.2409 and 1.2434, respectively.
Aug 29, 2013
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Session Recap: USD firms ahead of GDP figures
FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - Even though reduced tension regarding Syria gave high yielding currencies and stocks some relief, the USD extended gains on Thursday as month-end buying kicked in.
EUR/USD finally broke below 1.3300, which had contained the pair over the last 2 weeks, and accelerated toward the 1.3240 area. GBP/USD has managed to hold above the 1.5500 mark and trades little changed around 1.5515.
Meanwhile, the USD strengthened sharply versus the JPY and the CHF, with USD/CHF reaching a 2-week high just ahead of the 0.9300 level. Currencies linked to commodities are a tad lower with USD/CAD hovering around 1.0500 and AUD/USD around 0.8930.
Investors will now be watching for the second reading of US gross domestic product for the second quarter as markets continue to look US data closely ahead of the Fed’s meeting next month.
Main Headlines in Europe:
Commodities soar on Syria’s threat
France: Business Climate up to 98 in August
Spain: Q2 GDP contracted 1.6% YoY
Switzerland: Employment Level at 4.166 M QoQ in Q2
Germany: Unemployment Change up 7K in August
Bourses in Euroland revert losses, EUR plummets
Flash: What’s the sentiment around the EUR/USD? – Commerzbank and ANZ
Aug 29, 2013
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Flash: USD/JPY rebound expected to fail at downtrend - Commerzbank
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Axel Rudolph, Senior Technical Analyst at Commerzbank notes that USD/JPY continues to see a rebound from the 96.64 2 month support line.
Key Quotes
“While it is possible that we will see the market rebound towards the 99.30 3 month downtrend, we look for this to contain the topside. We are negative short term below here.”
“Below the 96.64 support line targets the five month support line at 95.02. Over the coming weeks we allow for losses back to the 94.45/93.75 support area. This is where the 200 day moving average, Fibonacci retracement and the June low are to be found.”
Aug 30, 2013
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GBP/USD under pressure on weaker USD spending data
FXstreet.com (Athens) - The GBP/USD is well capped by 1.5500 key area, on global turmoil and weaker than expected data from US.
Weaker US Consumer data putting again riddles on ‘tapering’ to traders; GBP/USD below 1.5500
The weaker than expected US data did not assist investors to comprehend if the ‘tapering’ will be ‘sooner’ rather than ‘later’. The US data were mixed, but the most crucial ones, such consumer spending, personal income, as well as personal spending let down investors all over the globe. On the other hand, the sterling is underperforming today due to a general corrective pullback. What’s more, traders should bear in mind that the last week (global turmoil, rumors for US military forces invading Syria), was not generally a pretty go of things for risk-seeking investors. Last but not least, next week might probably be the crucial one for Fed’s tapering decision.
Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
At the time of writing, the cable is trading at 1.5488, down 0.11%. The FXstreet.com Trend Index shows the pair to be slightly bullish. Daily pivot point support and resistance can be found at S3: 1.5417 S2: 1.5420 S1: 1.5356 R1:1.5527 R2:1.5565 R3:1.5604
Aug 30, 2013
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Canada: GDP contracted 0.5% MoM in June
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) -The Canadian economic activity contracted 0.5% on a monthly basis during June, matching expectations and down from May’s 0.2% advance. On an annualized basis, the GDP expanded 1.7% QoQ during the second quarter, surpassing estimates at 1.5%.
Aug 30, 2013
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USD/JPY loses momentum after hitting 1-month high




FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY advanced to a 1-month high on Monday as upbeat global PMIs and US delaying any decision on Syria until Congress returns next week boosted sentiment.


USD/JPY climbed more than 100 pips throughout the day, breaking above the 99.00 mark, and hi its highest since Aug 2 at 99.42 during the European session. However, the pair lost momentum and entered in a consolidation phase afterward. At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading at the 99.25 zone, 0.9% above its opening price. With US markets closed due to the Labor Day Holiday, the pair might spend the rest of the day in a range in the absence of news and headlines.


USD/JPY technical levels


As for technical levels, USD/JPY could find immediate resistances at 99.42 (daily high) and 99.93 (Aug 2 high), while supports are seen at 99.00 (psychological level) and 98.70 (20-hour SMA).










Sep 02,2013

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