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  1. The dollar was on the back foot on Thursday after tumbling overnight, particularly against sterling and the euro, as U.S. yields paused their march higher, offering some relief to the bruised and battered yen. Traders were also waiting for the European Central Bank meeting later in the day, to see whether they were in the same, more hawkish mood as their global peers. "At the beginning of the week I was saying everything followed from the ongoing grind higher in U.S. yields, equities were off, the dollar was soaring, and now because of what's happening in Treasuries, everything has reversed," said Ray Atrrill global head of FX strategy at National Bank of Australia. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was 2.7120%. It rose steadily earlier this month - driven by expectations of more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening to combat inflation - and reached as high as 2.836% on Tuesday, ahead of U.S. inflation figures. However, while high, these were not quite as bad as some had feared, which observers said caused yields to pause. The two year yield was also lower at 2.3604%. The British pound rose to $1.3131 in early trade, its highest in a week against the dollar, after jumping 0.9% on Wednesday, its biggest daily percentage gain since June 2021, partly boosted by high inflation figures. The euro too gained ground on the dollar, rising 0.54% on Wednesday, though fell against sterling This left the dollar index which measures the dollar against six peers, at 99.818 after a 0.52% overnight tumble. As well as the slow down in U.S. yields, Attrill said part of the moves could be explained by British CPI numbers coming in above expectations, "the money is flirting with the idea that the Bank of England could do 50 basis points in May - though we don't expect that". The market was positioned for a hint that the ECB might draw a line under its quantitative easing programme in the second quarter rather than the third, said Atrrill. "The risk is they are going to follow the path in terms of becoming overtly less dovish". The Bank of Korea, on Wednesday, surprised markets with a rate hike, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore also tightened policy. The Singapore dollar gained about 0.5% to a one week high on the dollar after the move. The Korean won was less concerned, rising 0.16% according to market quotes. On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of New Zealand both raised rates by 50 basis points, the largest hike for each in around 20 years. The dollar weakened 0.6% on the loonie on Wednesday, after the move, but gained ground on the kiwi as the RBNZ indicated in its post‑meeting statement that the peak cash rate remains unchanged due to concerns about the global outlook.
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  3. The US dollar rose against other currencies after a senior Federal Reserve official said that the bank should exit its emergency bond-buying program. In an interview with the Financial Times, Eric Rosengreen, CEO and president of Boston Fed, said that the ongoing bond purchases were ill-suited to address some of the challenges facing the economy like supply shortages. He said that the solution was for the government to end some of its stimulus measures and urge people to go back to work. This has, in turn, led to supply shortages, which has pushed prices higher. The British pound tilted higher even after the relatively weak UK inflation data. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the country’s consumer price index (CPI) declined from 2.5% in June to 2.0% in July. This decline was worse than the median estimate of 2.3%. The core CPI that excludes the volatile food and energy prices declined from 2.3% to 1.9%. This was lower than the estimated 2.2%. Meanwhile, the producer price index input and output rose to 9.9% and 4.9%, respectively. The NZDUSD wavered after the latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision. The bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, where it has been in the past few months. Analysts were expecting that the bank will hike interest rates by about 0.25%. In its statement, the bank attributed the decision to the country’s reintroduction of level 2 lockdowns after it reported one Covid-19 case. NZD/USD The NZDUSD pair declined after the latest RBNZ decision. It initially declined to 0.6868, which was the lowest level since November. It is trading at 0.6895, which is below this month’s high of 0.7090. On the four-hour chart, the price is along the lower side of the Bollinger Bands while the MACD has declined substantially. Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back in the next few days as New Zealand manages to address the Covid situation. GBP/USD The GBPUSD pair tilted slightly higher as investors reflected on the latest UK inflation numbers. On the four-hour chart, the pair moved to the lower line of the descending channel. The pair has also formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is usually a bullish sign. Still, it remains below the 25-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the oversold level. The pair will likely bounce back ahead of the FOMC minutes. USD/JPY The USDJPY pair rose to a high of 109.63, which was slightly above last Friday’s low of 109.10. On the four-hour chart, the pair is still below the 25-day and 15-day moving averages. The MACD indicator has made a bullish divergence pattern while the moving average of oscillator has moved above the neutral line. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance at 110.

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