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  1. After a harsh week in which the EUR/USD was exposed to downward momentum, pushing it towards the 1.1688 support, and with the start of this week’s trading, the pair tried to rebound higher with gains to 1.1793 before settling around the 1.1775 level at the time of writing. However, TopAsiaFX has stated that attempts to rebound lacked strong momentum to stabilize above the 1.1800 resistance, and the efforts of the Euro are hindered by concerns about the strength of the second wave of the Corona pandemic and the measures of European countries to contain the outbreak of the deadly disease. These restrictions directly affect the European economy, which is still suffering from the consequences of the first wave. At the same time, and with these concerns, the European Central Bank monitors the economic performance of the bloc to determine its appropriate policy. In this regard, European Central Bank Executive Board member Yves Mersch said yesterday that policymakers will carefully examine the economic data received before the next policy session to ensure that the impact of coronavirus containment measures is not repeatedly considered in light of extremely unstable expectations. “Looking to the future, in the current environment of high uncertainty, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will carefully evaluate the information received, including developments in the exchange rate, while ensuring that this information received, such as information related to containment measures that were included already at our baseline, were only counted once in our assessment.” He also said that the economic recovery in the Eurozone remains incomplete and prone to setbacks. The policymaker emphasized that the Board of Directors continues to prepare to adjust all its tools, as appropriate, to bring inflation back to its target level. The UK is leading European efforts to contain the pandemic. As authorities across the UK impose new restrictions on business and social interactions as COVID-19 infections are soaring in all age groups, where parts of the country’s hospital beds and intensive care wards are filling up. One of their main goals is to reduce the pressure on the NHS ahead of the winter flu season. In this regard, public health experts say that the lockdown could help reset the epidemic to a lower level, giving doctors time to treat patients and providing breathing space for the government to improve its response. Britain has the most serious outbreak of the Coronavirus in Europe, with more than 43,700 confirmed deaths. According to the technical analysis of the pair: We are still waiting for the EUR/USD to stabilize above the 1.1800 resistance, for an opportunity for a stronger correction upwards, and we expect the pair to remain stable between the 1.1660 support and the 1.2000 psychological resistance for a period of time, as shown on the daily chart. The psychological resistance at 1.2000 brings condemnation from monetary policy officials at the European Central Bank, as the Euro’s high exchange rate harms the European economy, which depends on exports at a time when it suffers from the effects of the pandemic. At the same time, the 1.1660 support raises buying interest among currency traders. As for the economic calendar data, today: The German producer price index will be announced, then the Eurozone’s current account will be released. During the American session, building permits and the housing starts in the United States will be announced.
  2. The dollar was down on Wednesday in Asia, with investors fine-tuning their positions ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting. The U.S. Dollar Index Futures that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched down 0.03% to 93.085 by 9:76 PM ET (2:57 AM GMT), giving up some earlier gains. The USD/JPY pair was down 0.15% to 105.28. The Fed will meet later in the day to hand down its policy decision, its first meeting since Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a more relaxed approach to inflation at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 27. This stance is widely expected to be continued and may weaken the greenback with the introduction of further stimulus measures. However, some investors disagreed with those expectations. “There’s a feeling in the market that maybe the Fed will try to act on its dovish tilt,” National Australia Bank (OTC: NABZY) senior currency analyst Rodrigo Catril told Reuters. “Our sense is that there’s a risk there that the Fed doesn’t do much more than what it’s done already,” he added, possibly lifting U.S. yields and weighing on the yen. The policy decision is also expected to introduce longer tenors for the Fed’s bond-buying program. Other areas of interest to investors are the Fed’s economic projections, particularly on inflation and its direction. “The three to 3.5-year projection horizon will give (Fed members) an opportunity to indicate how big an overshoot they expect will be required to get to the 2% average inflation target … it will also give (them) an opportunity to indicate how much of an overshoot they are willing to tolerate,” Standard Chartered (OTC: SCBFF) head of FX research Steve Englander told Reuters. The Bank of Japan and Bank of England will also hand down their respective policy decisions on Thursday. The AUD/USD pair edged up 0.12% to 0.7309 and the NZD/USD pair inched up 0.01% to 0.6722. The USD/CNY pair edged down 0.15% to 6.7699. The yuan continued to bask in the wake of Tuesday’s economic data indicating growth in industrial production and retail sales year-on-year, as well as pointing to China’s continuous economic recovery from COVID-19. As per, TopAsiaFX, The data also boosted investors’ hopes for a global recovery from the pandemic. The GBP/USD pair edged up 0.22% to 1.2915. The pound rose on the back of Tuesday’s better-than-expected job figures, as well as opposition to a bill proposing to break the U.K.’s Brexit treaty with the European Union (EU). The U.K. will release a slew of data for August, including the consumer price index, later in the day.
  3. The Australian dollar may give up its recent gains against the yen as President Donald Trump’s virus infection increases the uncertainty from the U.S. presidential election. The currency pair dropped as much as 1.2% on Friday after Trump said that both he and the First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for the virus. That follows a 3.3% slump in September after posting its longest winning streak in more than a decade. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar has benefited from nations heading toward an economic recovery after a coronavirus-led downturn but the market is turning cautious and starting to favor the haven value of the yen. “We see a risk that AUD/JPY is headed lower,” says Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London. “Elevated political risk in the U.S., concerns that some restrictions related to Covid-19 will be with us for longer and China/U.S. tensions could all mean a move back into safe-haven currencies.” PipsWin.com has reportedly stated that the Aussie rose for five straight months against the yen in its longest-winning streak since 2009, before bearishly breaching its 50 and 100-day moving averages last month. Its moving average convergence-divergence, a momentum indicator, has fallen below zero and its signal line, in a sign that that the currency pair’s faces further downside. The Aussie’s weakness can also be attributed to expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may further ease its policy this year. While a Bloomberg poll shows that it may leave rates unchanged at Tuesday’s review, markets are pricing a cut in the RBA cash rate to at least 0.10% as soon as its November meeting. The federal budget announcement, also scheduled on Tuesday, will be in focus as the government is expected to announce tax cuts and infrastructure spending to support an economy facing its first recession in almost 30 years. Meanwhile, there are signs that money managers are favoring the yen in the lead-up to the U.S. election. Asset managers boosted bullish positions in the Japanese currency to a record high in the week ended Sept. 22, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Below are the key Asian economic data and events due this week: Monday, October 5: Japan services PMI, Singapore retail sales, Thailand CPI Tuesday, October 6: RBA rate decision, Australia budget announcement, trade balance, South Korea CPI, Philippines CPI Wednesday, October 7: Australia weekly payrolls Thursday, October 8: New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoP current account balance, China Caixin services PMI, South Korea BoP current account balance, Thailand consumer confidence Friday, October 9: RBA Financial Stability Review and Australia home loans, Japan labor cash earnings and household spending, Philippine trade balance Cheers!
  4. S&P 500, Dollar, EURUSD, Gold Talking Points: A mere day after the S&P 500 earned a record high and the DXY Dollar Index broke to a multi-year low, both benchmarks put in for a reversal The FOMC minutes seemed to encourage the turn, but it didn’t exactly align to the timing of the about-face for markets Liquidity conditions remain my guiding light; but stimulus, trade war, FX intervention data and anticipation headlines will hold potential for volatility ahead RECORD HIGHS DON’T SEEM TO EARN WHAT THEY USED TO FOR THE S&P 500 Not a day after posting the technical progress necessary to qualify for technical breakouts, both the S&P 500 and EURUSD seemed to tip back into a reversal. Naturally, this abrupt directional change has more than a few eager market participants fretting that a systemic reversal has set in; but I maintain concern that the most remarkable matter is the shallow degree of conviction that continues to plague the market as a reflection of ‘summer’ liquidity. Looking to the US equity index, the slide through Wednesday seemed to generate the same degree of speculative surprise as the nominal record high earned the day before. Through it all, the medium-term (2 weeks) ATR continues to signal remarkable restriction inactivity. ‘Fear’ does historically pose a greater volatility threat than ‘greed’, but we are still some ways from signaling a market that is overriding its circumstances. Chart of S&P 500 Overlaid by VIX Volatility Index with 10-Day ATR (Daily) Outside of the S&P 500, the most recent measures of speculative charge present a clear reticence to throw weight behind unwinding or build up. From the more concentrated risk milestones, the tech-heavy FAANG and Nasdaq were in modest retreat this past session. More broadly, the breadth of speculative performance was seriously underperforming. With DAX, FTSE 100, and the Nikkei 225 slipping; the ‘rest of world’ VEU ETF was leaning back towards the floor of its rising wedge. The EEM Emerging Market ETF technically nudged its own trendline support. Carry trade in the FX column was also rousing dubious reversal threats with pairs like AUDJPY eyeing wedge/triangle support. Chart of AUDJPY with 20-Day Moving Average (Daily) IF A DOLLAR BREAKOUT CAN FALL APART, DON’T THROW TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN REVERSAL Where the benchmark US index was posing only a paper breakout and superficial reversal against that move, the Greenback urged a more impressive breakdown and then rebound. The scale of the DXY Dollar Index was certainly more impressive Tuesday and Wednesday, but the same shallow conviction haunts this benchmark currency. Just a day after slipping 92.50 and trading to a more-than-two-year low, the dollar posted its biggest single-day rally since June 11th to move back into the previous three-week range. While that may be a more impressive statistics in historical terms, this doesn’t pose much more confidence for intent than what the risk measures present. Chart of DXY Dollar Index with 20-Day Moving Average (Daily) Chart of EURUSD with Net Spec Futures Positioning and Consecutive Candles (Weekly) OTHER AREAS OF TARGETED VOLATILITY While the status of liquidity and the bearing of risk appetite remain my prevailing concern for their perspective on what the markets are capable of exacting, there are some interesting targeted flare-ups in other areas of the market. Trade wars for example continue to offer an important pressure with USDCNH and the Shanghai Composite stabilizing after President Trump offered a troubling perspective on the status of US-China relations. Another impressive performance would arise from gold which suffered its second-most intense single-day loss since June 2013. As far as escape velocity goes, that would seem to override the gravity of holiday conditions. I remain unconvinced. However, for those that believe the metal’s drop was just a side effect of the Dollar, an equally-weighted index of the commodity — priced in Dollar, Euro, Pound, and Yen — showed much the same drop. Chart of Equally-Weighted Gold Index in Dollar, Euro, Pound, Yen Terms (Daily) Again, TopAsiaFX has reportedly stated that another atypical area of activity to note this past session is one that seems to cater to liquidity well. EURCHF managed to urge a sharp move higher that fell outside event risk. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has a clear mandate to try and ease the Swiss currency to support the country’s economic trade. Are they perhaps taking advantage of shallow markets to urge a speculative shift? Ahead, I will monitor event risk from Canada such as the ADP payrolls, the UK sentiment surveys (CBI and GfK), and anticipation for Friday’s August PMIs. Be mindful. GoodLuck!
  5. American Inflation Figures Due Out Later Today UK GDP Numbers Hurt Pound US Markets Boosted by JPMorgan Earnings The EUR/USD has recovered slightly on Monday passing through the key 1.13 mark again as the Forex market awaits data from US CPI numbers as European industrial production figures came in strong. This was not matched in the UK where a GDP slip was matched by weak trading of Sterling. Futures markets in the US meanwhile have been boosted by much better than expected earnings report from JPMorgan Chase even though coronavirus case numbers continue to soar. Euro Boosted by Positive Data as CPI Figures Awaited The EUR/USD major market has struggled in trading in the last week. The Euro steadily lost any ground it had gained during the perceived coronavirus recovery and reopening as case numbers continued to bounce back strongly amid fears of a second wave of infections across the US. This drove many in Forex trading, back to the relative security of the US Dollar, and as its status as a safe haven currency lived up to the name. Today though, a slight correction has occurred, with the Euro once again positively crossing over the 1.13 trading mark. With only American CPI data due later today, this movement appears to be more in response to positive data coming from the EU with German economic sentiment coming in close to the estimate at 59.3, and industrial production showing strong growth of 12.4% for May. GBP Trading Slips on Poor GDP The Pound has been continuing to show weakness against the US Dollar over the same recent period as the Euro, and for many of the same reasons. The UK unfortunately has a couple of additional headaches to add to the mix which has contributed to a more difficult recovery for the currency than their European counterparts. The broadest of these are the Brexit negotiations which continue to drag on, but the one which has caused the latest slip is GDP figures released today. These numbers came in disappointingly low and well below what had been estimated. The British economy registered a growth of 1.8% in May. This is compared with a projection of more than 5% that had been expected by analysts. Forex brokers noted this poor result as being the likely driver of the GBP/USD further downward where it remains under pressure close to $1.25. American Markets Set to Open Higher on JPMorgan Boost The Dow Jones, which gave away gains of more than 500 points to finish yesterday’s trading session just about where it had started, is looking to get back on track today. The index is pointing toward opening gains of more than 150 points despite the fact that COVID19 cases continue to rise in record numbers. This positivity has largely been garnered by stronger than expected revenue numbers for JPMorgan in Q2. The bank reported revenues of $33 billion, exceeding the $30.3 billion estimate, given the markets, and the bank’s share price a pre-market lift.

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