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  1. Two major state-owned Chinese banks warned on Monday that they could restrict the trading of precious metals and foreign exchange products if this week’s U.S. presidential election fuels market volatility. Bank of China 601988.SS3988.HK, the fourth-largest lender by assets, said it might curb or suspend such trade, while Bank of Communications 601328.SS said it was taking steps to potentially limit spreads and transactions during the election. “We expect volatility in the precious metals and foreign exchange market to increase significantly between Nov. 3 and Nov. 4,” Bank of China said in an online statement. “Market liquidity will be notably lowered, and market risks may intensify.” The bank said it might suspend trading of affected products “under the extreme scenario of a liquidity crunch”, and cap trading volumes during the election. Bank of Communications said it would make “flexible adjustments” and restrict transactions based on international market quotations and market liquidity. Both lenders said curbs would be lifted once the market stabilized, however. Traders and FX brokers are closely watching the outcome of the election, with Republican President Donald Trump trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national opinion polls. Also read: Compare Now | Demo Trading Vs. Live Trading
  2. After a harsh week in which the EUR/USD was exposed to downward momentum, pushing it towards the 1.1688 support, and with the start of this week’s trading, the pair tried to rebound higher with gains to 1.1793 before settling around the 1.1775 level at the time of writing. However, TopAsiaFX has stated that attempts to rebound lacked strong momentum to stabilize above the 1.1800 resistance, and the efforts of the Euro are hindered by concerns about the strength of the second wave of the Corona pandemic and the measures of European countries to contain the outbreak of the deadly disease. These restrictions directly affect the European economy, which is still suffering from the consequences of the first wave. At the same time, and with these concerns, the European Central Bank monitors the economic performance of the bloc to determine its appropriate policy. In this regard, European Central Bank Executive Board member Yves Mersch said yesterday that policymakers will carefully examine the economic data received before the next policy session to ensure that the impact of coronavirus containment measures is not repeatedly considered in light of extremely unstable expectations. “Looking to the future, in the current environment of high uncertainty, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council will carefully evaluate the information received, including developments in the exchange rate, while ensuring that this information received, such as information related to containment measures that were included already at our baseline, were only counted once in our assessment.” He also said that the economic recovery in the Eurozone remains incomplete and prone to setbacks. The policymaker emphasized that the Board of Directors continues to prepare to adjust all its tools, as appropriate, to bring inflation back to its target level. The UK is leading European efforts to contain the pandemic. As authorities across the UK impose new restrictions on business and social interactions as COVID-19 infections are soaring in all age groups, where parts of the country’s hospital beds and intensive care wards are filling up. One of their main goals is to reduce the pressure on the NHS ahead of the winter flu season. In this regard, public health experts say that the lockdown could help reset the epidemic to a lower level, giving doctors time to treat patients and providing breathing space for the government to improve its response. Britain has the most serious outbreak of the Coronavirus in Europe, with more than 43,700 confirmed deaths. According to the technical analysis of the pair: We are still waiting for the EUR/USD to stabilize above the 1.1800 resistance, for an opportunity for a stronger correction upwards, and we expect the pair to remain stable between the 1.1660 support and the 1.2000 psychological resistance for a period of time, as shown on the daily chart. The psychological resistance at 1.2000 brings condemnation from monetary policy officials at the European Central Bank, as the Euro’s high exchange rate harms the European economy, which depends on exports at a time when it suffers from the effects of the pandemic. At the same time, the 1.1660 support raises buying interest among currency traders. As for the economic calendar data, today: The German producer price index will be announced, then the Eurozone’s current account will be released. During the American session, building permits and the housing starts in the United States will be announced.
  3. The Australian dollar may give up its recent gains against the yen as President Donald Trump’s virus infection increases the uncertainty from the U.S. presidential election. The currency pair dropped as much as 1.2% on Friday after Trump said that both he and the First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for the virus. That follows a 3.3% slump in September after posting its longest winning streak in more than a decade. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar has benefited from nations heading toward an economic recovery after a coronavirus-led downturn but the market is turning cautious and starting to favor the haven value of the yen. “We see a risk that AUD/JPY is headed lower,” says Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank in London. “Elevated political risk in the U.S., concerns that some restrictions related to Covid-19 will be with us for longer and China/U.S. tensions could all mean a move back into safe-haven currencies.” PipsWin.com has reportedly stated that the Aussie rose for five straight months against the yen in its longest-winning streak since 2009, before bearishly breaching its 50 and 100-day moving averages last month. Its moving average convergence-divergence, a momentum indicator, has fallen below zero and its signal line, in a sign that that the currency pair’s faces further downside. The Aussie’s weakness can also be attributed to expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may further ease its policy this year. While a Bloomberg poll shows that it may leave rates unchanged at Tuesday’s review, markets are pricing a cut in the RBA cash rate to at least 0.10% as soon as its November meeting. The federal budget announcement, also scheduled on Tuesday, will be in focus as the government is expected to announce tax cuts and infrastructure spending to support an economy facing its first recession in almost 30 years. Meanwhile, there are signs that money managers are favoring the yen in the lead-up to the U.S. election. Asset managers boosted bullish positions in the Japanese currency to a record high in the week ended Sept. 22, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Below are the key Asian economic data and events due this week: Monday, October 5: Japan services PMI, Singapore retail sales, Thailand CPI Tuesday, October 6: RBA rate decision, Australia budget announcement, trade balance, South Korea CPI, Philippines CPI Wednesday, October 7: Australia weekly payrolls Thursday, October 8: New Zealand business confidence, Japan BoP current account balance, China Caixin services PMI, South Korea BoP current account balance, Thailand consumer confidence Friday, October 9: RBA Financial Stability Review and Australia home loans, Japan labor cash earnings and household spending, Philippine trade balance Cheers!
  4. The dollar was down on Thursday morning, edging towards two-year low and reversing some earlier gains after the U.S. Federal Reserve stuck to a widely-expected script as its two-day meeting concluded on Wednesday. The Fed kept interest rates near zero and vowed to use all available tools to support the recovery from the most severe economic downturn “in our lifetime”, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a virtual press conference on Wednesday. The Fed also tied economic recovery to an end to the COVID-19 pandemic, with Powell warning that there are signs that increases in the number of COVID-19 cases are starting to weigh on economic activity. But some investors were already looking ahead to Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year when bigger changes to the Fed’s strategy could be unveiled. The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies was down 0.15% to 93.295 by 11:20 PM ET (4:20AM GMT). The dollar has been on a days-long retreat over expectations that the Fed will continue its current monetary policy, and on speculation that it will allow inflation to run higher than it has previously indicated before raising interest rates. The USD/JPY pair was up 0.11% to 105.03. The AUD/USD pair was down 0.03% to 0.7184 and the NZD/USD slid 0.17% to 0.6656. The USD/CNY pair fell 0.06% to 6.9970 and the GBP/USD pair was down 0.03% to 1.2991. Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats continue debates over the country’s latest stimulus measures. Investors will be looking to see whether the two sides can finally reach an agreement, with one day left before some earlier stimulus measures expire on Friday. Note: TopAsiaFX claimed that the dollar will rise up again in November 2020 or earlier.
  5. American Inflation Figures Due Out Later Today UK GDP Numbers Hurt Pound US Markets Boosted by JPMorgan Earnings The EUR/USD has recovered slightly on Monday passing through the key 1.13 mark again as the Forex market awaits data from US CPI numbers as European industrial production figures came in strong. This was not matched in the UK where a GDP slip was matched by weak trading of Sterling. Futures markets in the US meanwhile have been boosted by much better than expected earnings report from JPMorgan Chase even though coronavirus case numbers continue to soar. Euro Boosted by Positive Data as CPI Figures Awaited The EUR/USD major market has struggled in trading in the last week. The Euro steadily lost any ground it had gained during the perceived coronavirus recovery and reopening as case numbers continued to bounce back strongly amid fears of a second wave of infections across the US. This drove many in Forex trading, back to the relative security of the US Dollar, and as its status as a safe haven currency lived up to the name. Today though, a slight correction has occurred, with the Euro once again positively crossing over the 1.13 trading mark. With only American CPI data due later today, this movement appears to be more in response to positive data coming from the EU with German economic sentiment coming in close to the estimate at 59.3, and industrial production showing strong growth of 12.4% for May. GBP Trading Slips on Poor GDP The Pound has been continuing to show weakness against the US Dollar over the same recent period as the Euro, and for many of the same reasons. The UK unfortunately has a couple of additional headaches to add to the mix which has contributed to a more difficult recovery for the currency than their European counterparts. The broadest of these are the Brexit negotiations which continue to drag on, but the one which has caused the latest slip is GDP figures released today. These numbers came in disappointingly low and well below what had been estimated. The British economy registered a growth of 1.8% in May. This is compared with a projection of more than 5% that had been expected by analysts. Forex brokers noted this poor result as being the likely driver of the GBP/USD further downward where it remains under pressure close to $1.25. American Markets Set to Open Higher on JPMorgan Boost The Dow Jones, which gave away gains of more than 500 points to finish yesterday’s trading session just about where it had started, is looking to get back on track today. The index is pointing toward opening gains of more than 150 points despite the fact that COVID19 cases continue to rise in record numbers. This positivity has largely been garnered by stronger than expected revenue numbers for JPMorgan in Q2. The bank reported revenues of $33 billion, exceeding the $30.3 billion estimate, given the markets, and the bank’s share price a pre-market lift.

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